1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:28,479 Speaker 2: people over for a second. Hello and welcome to the 4 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. I'm Sean Zula, 5 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 2: joined today by former professional fighter Billy Word to discuss 6 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 2: UFC Denver going down on Saturday night, another card at elevation, 7 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: so we will discuss some live betting angles which are 8 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: always important when these fighters go and fight at a 9 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 2: mile high elevation because everybody gases out a little bit 10 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: quicker than they tend to at sea level, and it 11 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 2: makes live betting extremely interesting. It makes late props, round two, 12 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: round three props. That's really interesting to look at for 13 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 2: a lot of these fights as we do ten to 14 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,559 Speaker 2: get later finishes and also more submissions, less knockout power. 15 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: I feel like the fighters are actually gassing out in 16 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: the locker room and on the way on the walk 17 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 2: to the cage. They just don't have their full energy 18 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 2: to even land knockout punches once they get in there. 19 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: But submissions tend to increase, and late finishes do tend 20 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 2: to increase, especially by submission when we go to elevation 21 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: and looking at our main event, Rose Namahunas versus Tracy Cortes. 22 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: Cortes taking this fight on short notice in place of 23 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: Macon Barber. That's not a great sign considering she's taking 24 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: this on short notice, going up at elevation, and also 25 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 2: facing a former champion in Rose. Now Rose, former straweight, 26 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 2: moved up to one twenty five, doesn't necessarily look like 27 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: she has the physique to fill out fully for that division. 28 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: I don't really think she added a ton of muscle, 29 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: but she did look better at her second fight in 30 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 2: the division as opposed to her first fight. The one 31 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: thing with Rose and mind is difficult to lay juice 32 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 2: on her. She just doesn't her big price tags. Typically. 33 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: She had the fight with Carlos Sparz obviously, where they 34 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 2: just stared at each other for twenty five minutes and 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 2: danced around the cage. But Rose isn't proactive all the time, 36 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 2: and she tends to let her opponents stay in rounds 37 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: on volume. When she gets taken down, she tends to 38 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: stay on her back, and she hasn't shown the best 39 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: cardio in the past either. But that said, the fact 40 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 2: that Cortes has taken this fight on short note has 41 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: never been five rounds in her career. That sort of 42 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 2: neutralizes the cardio angle for me to a degree. So 43 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 2: the two ways I'm looking at playing this. The initial 44 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 2: way I saw Rose by decision plus one fifteen, nice 45 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: cut and dry and easy. You can actually get Rose 46 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: in the over two and a half rounds. In the 47 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,119 Speaker 2: same game, Parlay at minus one twenty five would absolutely 48 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: play that it was at sea level, a little bit 49 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: less interested in taking the price adjustment and laying jews 50 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: just because I don't see Rose getting a finished at 51 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 2: sea level in the late rounds at a particularly consistent clip. 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 2: But in Denver I think it's a much higher probability, 53 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: especially considering short notice nature and Kort has never been 54 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 2: five rounds. Not high on either of these fighters, typically 55 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 2: both women. I typically bet against what going to take 56 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: Doug Rose here, and as I said late iterations, I 57 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: think Billy is thinking along the same lines Rose by 58 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 2: decision or Rose and late props, and considering the difference 59 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: between plus one fifteen for Decision and plus or minus 60 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 2: one twenty five for Rose in the over two and 61 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 2: a half, I'd rather have the final two and a 62 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 2: half rounds plus rows at minus one twenty five, So 63 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 2: taking Rose and Rose on the scorecards. Billy, I think 64 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 2: we have a pretty similar breakdown for this fight and 65 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: a pretty similar bretting approach. I just don't have access 66 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 2: to that round four to five or decision prop that 67 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:38,839 Speaker 2: you seem to be able to get. 68 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, to be fair, I greatly prefer waiting 69 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 3: to bet Rose live for a couple of reasons here. 70 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 3: I mean, you mentioned she looked better in her second 71 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: fight at one twenty five. That's because their second fight 72 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: one twenty five was against another straweight. It was Amanda Hebis, 73 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: who bounces back and forth between the two divisions. 74 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 4: Cebus really should be at one fifteen all the time. 75 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 3: I don't know why she insists I'm coming up every 76 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 3: so often, but that's one of the reasons. And yeah, 77 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 3: if it weren't for the short notice, I'd be all 78 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 3: over Tracy Cortez here. With that said, Cortes was training 79 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: for a fight the next week, so it's not like 80 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: she was totally drawing dead and coming in. 81 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: Off the street. 82 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 3: It's still a big ass to then go to Denver 83 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 3: with two extra rounds against a fighter and Rose who 84 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 3: trains in Colorado. That's another big factor for me here 85 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 3: on the cardio and yeah. 86 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 4: I'm like you. 87 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 3: I've I've looked up bet against Tracy Cortes often in 88 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,119 Speaker 3: the past, and as anyone can look up for UFC record, 89 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 3: She's undefeated in the promotion, so that has not gone 90 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 3: well for me. That really is preventing me from wanting 91 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 3: to take anything pre fight on Rose. I think Cortes 92 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 3: is at this point probably the better fighter, the more 93 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 3: powerful fighter, going to be more aggressive, just do more early, 94 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 3: and I'm just trying to wait to see if we 95 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 3: can get Nami Unis a plus money in the second, third, 96 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 3: fourth round, assuming that Cortez hits a wall here. I 97 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 3: would be more comfortable bet in Cortez pre fight if 98 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 3: she had an ounce of finishing ability, but she's never finished. 99 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 3: The UFC fight also had a lot of close decisions. 100 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 3: You know, if you're coming in on short notice at 101 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 3: a fight at elevation, you kind of have to sell 102 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 3: out and just try to get the stopage. We'll talk 103 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 3: about that and our Fight of the night coming out 104 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: pretty soon. It's just a fight IQ thing. You know, 105 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 3: you don't have twenty five minutes and you most likely 106 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 3: you got to go for it. We've just never seen 107 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 3: that from Tracy, which is keeping me off for a 108 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 3: pre fight. Otherwise I might be on that side. But yeah, 109 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: obviously we're going to talk about a lot of live 110 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 3: betting here. Definitely prefer Rose live. If I had to 111 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 3: take it pre fight, it'd be that four or five decision, 112 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 3: the same game parlay and over two and a half 113 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: at a five cents price difference is pretty much the 114 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 3: same thing any of those I like, but I would 115 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 3: much rather wait to see if we can get plus 116 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:39,119 Speaker 3: money midway through this one. 117 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: Good stuff. Yeah, I typically look to live bet against Rose. 118 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 2: It's an odd spot where I'm looking to lie bet 119 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: on her, but she trains at elevation. She doesn't have 120 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,799 Speaker 2: the best cardio, but of the two, she should handle 121 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: the conditions much better. Our far of the night, as 122 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 2: you just tease Drew Dover against John Silva Silva coming 123 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: back after a knockout against Charles Jordaane, where we discussed 124 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: that fight at length and decided in a vacuum where 125 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 2: you can take every Brazilian that we can at a 126 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 2: coin flip price against any Canadian that we can. One 127 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 2: of my favorite tweets from that card Nicki Gambler on 128 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 2: Twitter irish Ema may Fan. I'm not familiar with Geen Silva, 129 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 2: but before he had even thrown a single punch, he 130 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 2: was moving in this deliberate, confident way that told me, oh, 131 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 2: this guy is used to knocking people dead when he 132 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 2: hits them. I'm not sure how to explain it, but 133 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 2: it's the same way that Figgi and Yoel move meaning 134 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 2: he have some Figuraedo and Yol romero and then three 135 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: minutes later, right after the knockout, because he tweeted that 136 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: between rounds, Yeah, that was the movement. A man who 137 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: truly unequivocally believes that if he hits. 138 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 4: You, you're fucked. 139 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: You can't fake that. Geen Silva is immediately one of 140 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 2: my favorite fighters. I mean, he's like high, fighting opponents 141 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: for throwing cool strikes against him, He's like hugging them 142 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 2: between rounds. I don't know if there's like something off 143 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 2: with him or if he's like the best at playing 144 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: mind games I've ever seen by being nice, you know, 145 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 2: killing people with literally like killing opponents with kindness. And 146 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 2: he turns the switch on and he's right right in 147 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 2: Jordain's face and Jordaanin's like, wait, man, you were high 148 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 2: fiving maybe a minute ago. What's going on? 149 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 4: H Yeah. 150 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 2: I really like Silva. I think he's super fun to watch. 151 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: He's crazy aggressive. I think the one thing people are 152 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: overlooking here because it's fight at night and or the 153 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 2: expected fight of the night, we expect these two to 154 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: just swing it out. Drew Dover, I think in top 155 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 2: time him if he wants to, if he fights like intelligently. 156 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 2: I don't think Silva has great takedown defense, and we've 157 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 2: seen Dover proactively wrestle in the past. He doesn't do 158 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 2: it often, but what he wants to do it, he 159 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 2: can do it, and he can get takedowns and spend 160 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 2: time on top of people. He's terrible when people try 161 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 2: to top time him, and maybe there's a chance Silva 162 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: could do it back to him. I mean, we've discussed 163 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: Silva and the fighting nerds and the fact that these 164 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: guys are well trained and come in with the game plans. 165 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 2: But I think Silva is very much more of a striker, 166 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 2: and I don't know if he's his fight i Q 167 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: is on the same level as his other teammates, but 168 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 2: in terms of the technical breakdown in the fight or 169 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 2: how I see it playing out. Early if they do 170 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: slug it out. I think Silva just has better hardware. 171 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 2: He's smaller technically. He's coming up division to face Dover 172 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 2: on short notice. That dober chin, though, was starting to 173 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 2: go a little bit, and Dover's style he absorbed strikes 174 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 2: at like forty nine percent. He takes one to give one, 175 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 2: and that's great when you have elite durability, but that 176 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 2: durability started to go. Terms m Kenny knocked him down, 177 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: dober got back up, finished him, but then Dover got 178 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: KOed by Vola and his last fight I think it 179 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: was against the voy of you know, he kept getting 180 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 2: taken down, popping up. He was winning the striking, but 181 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 2: no like real finishing threat against him in that fight. 182 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 2: I think Silva is going to hit the chin in 183 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 2: round one. Silva by ko silver round one props I 184 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 2: think are interesting. And then Dover is the guy who 185 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 2: trains the elevation and he is the guy more suited 186 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 2: to this weight class. I still think Silva moneylined minus 187 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 2: one ten good pre fight and then probably live bet 188 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 2: into Dover after round one to hedge off a little bit, 189 00:08:55,920 --> 00:09:00,959 Speaker 2: but Silva finished props his KO one. I think those 190 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: are all iterations worth playing him into a live bet 191 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 2: on Dover. Thirty six year old Dover does that better, 192 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 2: probably has better cardio given where he trains and the 193 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 2: fact that you know Silva's now fighting twice in three weeks. 194 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 2: But yeah, it's it's Silva refight as the side for 195 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 2: me for sure. And I think you kind of agree 196 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: on the Silver Violence into Dover live bet. 197 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I teased it before. I think he's 198 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 3: smart enough or this team as well trained enough to understand, hey, 199 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 3: we're here for a good time, not a long time. 200 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 4: You got to sell out and try to get this knockout. 201 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 3: I think we never know what these conversations are like backstage, 202 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 3: but if I'm in his corner, he's like, hey, we 203 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 3: don't want to be doing this for fifteen minutes against 204 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 3: a bigger guy who trains at elevation. It's kind of 205 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 3: tricky with these quick turnaround fights. Some guys, if they're 206 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 3: super disciplined, they'll look better the next time around because 207 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 3: they were already in shape, they stayed in the gym 208 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 3: if they didn't take a lot of damage. Some guys 209 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 3: that go out and you know, enjoy their knockout of 210 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 3: the night bonus real heavily in Vegas or wherever they're at, 211 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 3: and don't look as great on the short turnaround. That 212 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: one we don't really know, but yeah, I'm not worried 213 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 3: about him coming up in weight class. Like every time 214 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 3: he lands a shot on anyone, it just looks rough. 215 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 3: And my favorite line about that, and I'm borrowing this 216 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 3: from Rampage Jackson, but when he hits people, they stay hit. 217 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 3: You know, they don't come back, They don't get back 218 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: in the pocket asking for more. Every time I've seen 219 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 3: him land to strike his opponent is like, WHOA, let's 220 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 3: not do that again. 221 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 4: I need to come up with another plan. 222 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 3: Part of my analysis on Silva by knockout is I 223 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 3: think Drew Dober kind of understands the assignment at this 224 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 3: point in his career where he's not a guy who's 225 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 3: there because he wins them all. 226 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 4: He's a guy who's there because he makes really fun fights. 227 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 4: And I kind of expect. 228 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 3: Him to trade with Gene Silva. He shouldn't, You're one 229 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 3: hundred percent right. He just seems like the kind of 230 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 3: guy that he's gonna dance when he hears some music, 231 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 3: So that helps with that. You can get Silva in 232 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 3: round one or two. The split round prop. It's similar 233 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 3: price to the knockout. I think it's a little bit worse. 234 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 3: I prefer knockout just because we haven't seen him submit 235 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 3: anyone harder to submit a bigger, stronger guy than it 236 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 3: is to knock out a somewhat chinny opponent. And yeah, 237 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 3: coming back on Drew Dover Live, I put live after 238 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 3: round one in the sheet. This one you kind of 239 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 3: have to play it by year. I think we have 240 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 3: to see how hard Silver is throw and see what 241 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 3: kind of game plan Dover has. Just be flexible on 242 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 3: this one. It's not like round one ends. I'm just 243 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 3: gonna blindly click and take that live bet. 244 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 4: I kind of want to see how both guys are doing. 245 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 3: I absolutely hate betting in the middle of rounds live 246 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 3: because of the tape delay that we're going through. 247 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 4: This is one where I might make that exception. 248 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 3: If it looks like Silver comes out real hard at 249 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 3: the start of round two kind of dumps the tank, 250 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 3: doesn't get it. That might be the ideal spot for Dober, 251 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 3: especially if he lands some of those shots, but then 252 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: Dober gets to take down or Dober shoves him up 253 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 3: against the fence. 254 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 4: Being the bigger, stronger guys you alluded to. 255 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, it might not be right after round one. In fact, 256 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 2: the way Silver approached the Jordane fight, he kind of 257 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 2: stalked him and didn't throw anything for like the first 258 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 2: three minutes, and then towards the end round one he 259 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 2: started picking up the pace, clearly had him hurt at 260 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 2: the end of round one, and then finished him early 261 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 2: in round two. So he seemed to build to actually 262 00:11:58,200 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: like starting to fight at the end of round one. 263 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: And if he does the same against Dover, yeah, you 264 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 2: want to wait till middle of round two maybe to 265 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 2: fire a live bet, because he might be starting to 266 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 2: pour it on end of round one, early round two, 267 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 2: and that might be the window where Dover needs to survive. 268 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 2: It might not be from the opening bell, it might 269 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 2: be between rounds, getting back off the stool and you know, 270 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 2: seeing if he's still wobble there what have you. Yeah, 271 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 2: so really fun fight should be fire to tonight on paper. 272 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,719 Speaker 2: Would love to see these two slug it out and 273 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,599 Speaker 2: definitely keep an eye on Silver's body language from a 274 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 2: live betting perspective. Dover just having the elevation advantage, but 275 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 2: Silva not cutting weight. I think sort of neutralizes that 276 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 2: to a degree. Favorite underdog on the card, I'm gonna 277 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 2: go with the comin event, Muslim Salakov, the King of 278 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 2: Kong Fu against Santiago Ponzinnabio Old Man Fight thirty seven 279 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: and forty, respectively. Neither guy has particularly good cardio. Salakov 280 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 2: to me, though, just the better mover. He's going to 281 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 2: be the one, you know, dancing around the cage, utilizing footwork, 282 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 2: utilizing kicks. Ponzin Abo doesn't really throw kicks. He likes 283 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 2: to and he just likes to stand in the center 284 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: of the cage. He doesn't really utilize good footwork anymore. 285 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 2: He just likes to be in a phone boot, you know, 286 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: boxing in the pocket hope accept leg kicks and then 287 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 2: punch you back in the face. But Salakov, I think, 288 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 2: is just going to take advantage of the larger octagon here. 289 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: He's seemingly struggled when he's been put in the apex. 290 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: He struggled against bigger power punchers, you know, guys who 291 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 2: can knock you out with one punch. That's not Ponzanavio, 292 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 2: you know so much. Panzanevio is more of an nutritional 293 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 2: finisher for me at this stage of his career, you know, 294 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 2: earlier in your squer Yes, absolutely, I think I think 295 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,079 Speaker 2: he had more one punch power, but now at thirty seven, 296 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 2: I think he's more of an nutritional finisher. He's also 297 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: I believe the guy coming off of a knockout loss. 298 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 2: Isn't that correct? I guess they both are. Yeah, so 299 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 2: it's just the old man fight. You know. Normally Salakov, 300 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 2: like I have concerns about his cardio when he's facing 301 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 2: younger opponents, It's really not the case here. Maybe ponzanebio live, 302 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 2: but not not like a major cardio discrepancy where I'm like, oh, 303 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 2: you have to hedge out live after. So he has 304 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 2: just straight up Salakov plus one fifty five, no prop 305 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 2: no live angle, just taking the underdog in what could 306 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 2: be a very sloppy comin event down the stretch. Billy, 307 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 2: Any thoughts on the Comaine and any underdogs they caught 308 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 2: your eye? 309 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm mostly with you. 310 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 3: I think if I was, and I should phrase that differently, 311 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 3: I think I actually like Salakov live as well. My 312 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 3: only thought here is he's got some of those Sanda 313 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 3: Wushue takedowns where he kind of just trips you over 314 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 3: gets a little inside action. Those don't use the same 315 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 3: kind of energy that you know. Cody Brundage is gonna 316 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 3: use exploding for a big double leg takedown. If he 317 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 3: can land one or two of those on Ponzinabio, it's 318 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 3: gonna shift that Cardio balance pretty heavily, just making ponsan 319 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 3: Abio get up, making these as you said, old men 320 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 3: have to work their way back to their feet. Whoever 321 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 3: has to work from the bottom there. I feel like 322 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 3: they've got one of those in them for this fight. 323 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 3: And then I'm also betting under two and a half 324 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 3: rounds at minus one twenty. Again, it's seventy eight years 325 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 3: of combined age, both coming out off knockout losses. One 326 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 3: of the heavier weight class fights we're seeing on the card. 327 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 3: It feels like everything's got a point in the same 328 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 3: direction there. But as far as underdogs, I've gone back 329 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 3: and forth on a couple. I like the mom Black 330 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 3: share here against Montel Jackson. Jackson is very heavily dependent 331 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 3: on being explosive. 332 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 4: And knocking you out early. 333 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 3: It's a one hundred and thirty five pound fight, so 334 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 3: Cardio might not be the big issue here, but he 335 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 3: gets taken down a lot. Black Cheer loves to grapple. 336 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 3: He's the one, like super tall, skinny guy that relies 337 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: very heavily on his grappling, which is interesting. He hit 338 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 3: that twister finished a couple of fights ago. It's easy 339 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 3: to write that off as a fluke. He's looked for 340 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 3: that in every single one of his UFC fights. At 341 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 3: some point he has gotten mostly behind the guy and 342 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 3: tried to set up a twister. 343 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 2: I don't know if he does that is going for 344 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 2: the twister every time he gets the back. It's just 345 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 2: like his preferred submission. 346 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it makes a lot of sense given their 347 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 3: their builds and the way they can attack, because you 348 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 3: don't need to fight for that second hook. 349 00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 4: If you just have the one, just stretch it out, 350 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 4: see if it's there. 351 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 3: You're gonna make fifty grand if you land it almost guaranteed, 352 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 3: and so like, at least give it a shot. It 353 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 3: doesn't hurt anything. But Yeah, I like the grappling upside 354 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: here from Black Cheer. It's going to be a sweaty 355 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 3: to three minutes because Montel Jackson has big power. But 356 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 3: one stat I noticed when I was looking into this fight. 357 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 3: Anytime Jackson has been taking down more than once in 358 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 3: a fight he's lost, and Black Cheer is averaging about 359 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 3: two and a half per fifteen minutes, and obviously you'd 360 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 3: expect Black Cheer to go for more in this kind 361 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 3: of matchup than he did against guys where he might 362 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 3: have a striking edge. So just a guy who's vulnerable 363 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: against grapplers fighting what I would say is still up 364 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 3: and coming, very high level grappler, and we're getting plus 365 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: some money on the grappler side. I would prefer this 366 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 3: fight not to be at elevation to make those bets, 367 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 3: but it's still plus one twenty four, so I'll still 368 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 3: take it. 369 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe even I didn't consider it initially, but a 370 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 2: Jackson wied bet if Black Cheer is having trouble getting 371 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 2: those takedowns or you know, if he's getting them, but 372 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 2: it looks like he's gassing a little bit, because I 373 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 2: have concerns about Black Cher's cardio at elevation in a 374 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 2: fifteen minute fight, and if Jackson is defending the wrestling, 375 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 2: I might look to live at him after round one 376 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 2: if you get a better price. 377 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 3: I could see a live betting angle on both guys, right, 378 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 3: because if Jackson is swinging real hard and doesn't get 379 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 3: the knockdown, it's probably black Share. If black Cheer shoots 380 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 3: three or four takedowns and only gets one of them, 381 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 3: or doesn't get either of them, that's also a concern. 382 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 4: To be fair to. 383 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 3: Black Share, Like he tired out a little bit in 384 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 3: this fight against Mario Bautista that he took on one 385 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 3: week notice after twistering a guy and getting a fifty 386 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 3: grand bonus the week before. So the only time we've 387 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 3: seen him really struggle cardio wise, there was at least an. 388 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 4: Excuse built in there that's somewhat logical. 389 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 3: So I don't know, I could see cardio issues coming 390 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,679 Speaker 3: from both guys, depending on their game plan and how 391 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 3: it works for him. So don't go in there like 392 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 3: I'm going to blindly live bet fighter acts after round one. 393 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 4: You gotta watch this one. 394 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, there was this law fight too. You got handad 395 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 2: in the third round. You look pretty bad there. I 396 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: don't know. I'm so like the one thing that gives 397 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 2: me cautious about I'm pretty like you get your point. 398 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 2: I'm definitely leaning more towards live betting Jackson. The thing 399 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 2: that concerns me Jackson is he's huge. He probably cuts 400 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 2: a ton of weight to make the division. He's huge 401 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 2: hands too, And that's like the concern for Black Chears, 402 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 2: Like it seems like when guys put their hands around Jackson, 403 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 2: his grip strength is insane and he just like peels 404 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 2: your hands off of you, you know, off of them. 405 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know how effective black cheers 406 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 2: grappling is going to be against the guy with that 407 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 2: grip shrink. You really don't know until you see it 408 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: play out. You know, he was fighting JP Byes, who 409 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 2: was a flyweight, and he kept knocking JP bys down 410 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 2: every time he jabbed him. But anytime buys put his 411 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 2: hands around Jackson, he was taking him down. So he's 412 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 2: definitely been taken down by smaller guys who are less strong. 413 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: But at the same time, like once he gets taken down, 414 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 2: he seems to be able to break the grip strength 415 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,479 Speaker 2: pretty easily. Yeah, it's an interesting fight for Sean. I'm 416 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 2: probably leaning towards live betting Jackson, but as you said, 417 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 2: like if he goes for a finishing round one gases 418 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 2: or you know, doesn't get it and Black She's still 419 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 2: there yet I certainly considered the other side, maybe an 420 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: under in this fight. 421 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean both guys have stopped upside. 422 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 3: I would just say real quick though, on the majority 423 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 3: draw against the lall Black Cheer took that one on 424 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 3: like a weak notice, as the law was supposed to 425 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 3: fight somebody else and it was Black Cheer's UFC debut. 426 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 3: I'm gonna, like I said, there's there's been moments of concern, 427 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 3: but you can kind of see how it would have happened, 428 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 3: and he's looked better under normal circumstances. I don't know 429 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 3: what that adds up to, but it's not me having 430 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 3: major concern. But yeah, under or inside the distance or 431 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 3: that kind of stuff makes a ton of sense here. 432 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 3: It's pretty binary how either guy is gonna get it done. 433 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 4: You think one of them is gonna happen, probably, but yeah. 434 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 2: It seems it seems pretty binary. Getting costs money at 435 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 2: elevation between two guys who are fairly aggressive, both. 436 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 3: Big for the division. Jack Yeah, I mean you mentioned 437 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,479 Speaker 3: Jackson being big for the division. Black Cheer is like 438 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 3: the fifth tallest bantam weight or something, and he's the 439 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 3: shorter guy in this fight. 440 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 4: I made that up. 441 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 3: That was a stat from like two fights ago for 442 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 3: Black cheer, it's probably changed, but they're both very very 443 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 3: for one thirty five. 444 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting fight, probably the second best part of the 445 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 2: card for me in terms of like action and excitement. 446 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by 447 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: bet MGM used the bonus code action when signing up 448 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 1: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus 449 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: bets if your first bet does not win. 450 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 2: For new users in. 451 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 452 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 453 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: and Wyoming. 454 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. 455 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: It must be twenty one plus gambling problem called one 456 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler. 457 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 2: Let's move to our top props to Billy. Billy had 458 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 2: already mentioned one prop to Salakov or I guess it's 459 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 2: an under. It's a total the Salakov and Ponzanaviio under. Billy. 460 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 2: What other props you taken a look at for the start? 461 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Josh Van Charles Johnson fight, which 462 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 3: I would argue is probably my second favorite fight on 463 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 3: the car just because you've got twenty two year old 464 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 3: Josh Van, looking better and better every fight, picked up 465 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 3: his first UFC knockout last time against Charles Johnson, who 466 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 3: has fought nine times in the last two years. 467 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 4: Not a great record in his pro career or UFC career. 468 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 3: He's fifteen and six, is a pro four and four 469 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 3: in the UFC, never been finished. He was like a 470 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 3: D one distance runner. Was never in the Olympics, but 471 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 3: he has the Olympic tattoo. I don't understand how you 472 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 3: do that. I thought that wasn't allowed. But you know, 473 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 3: he makes some weird personal style choices in general, if 474 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 3: anyone's seen his haircuts. So we'll let that one go. 475 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 3: I like Josh fann by knockout at plus four hundred here. 476 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 3: You know, we talk about it with older fighters. We 477 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 3: say the power is the last thing to go. It's 478 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 3: also the last thing to show up. I mean, I'm 479 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 3: sure most of our listeners here on the other side 480 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,640 Speaker 3: of twenty two like we are. You know, you get 481 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 3: that man strength into your early and mid twenties. You 482 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 3: fill out your body a little bit more. And Josh 483 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 3: Van's a guy who lands over nine significant strikes per minute. 484 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 3: You put a little extra power. Beyond that, I think 485 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 3: he can be the first guy to finish Charles Johnson. 486 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 3: Obviously Ko is more likely here, but he's got a 487 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 3: couple of submission wins on the regionals. It wouldn't surprise 488 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 3: me to see a club and sub And I hate 489 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 3: getting greedy and chasing plus five hundred and set a 490 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 3: plus four hundred and then losing the bet because the 491 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 3: other thing happened. So I like Van inside the distance 492 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 3: at plus four hundred. It's another one Sean, you're on 493 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 3: the other side of this live. But I think if 494 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 3: Charles Johnson survives the first round round and a half, 495 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 3: he's a good live bet. His last two wins he 496 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 3: lost the first round and then won the second and third. 497 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 3: That's Charles Johnson's game plan. It's what he's trying to do. 498 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 3: He gives away the first round. He's gonna put a 499 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 3: pace on you late. Van is a much better fighter 500 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 3: than the guys he's fought before, which is why I 501 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 3: see where you're coming from. 502 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 4: I am not for sure. 503 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 3: Coming back on Charles Johnson, but there's some scenarios where 504 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 3: Van sells out hard. 505 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 4: Then I'm gonna come back in on Johnson Live. 506 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the guys Johnson beat Asik Maxim, Jake Havley, 507 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 2: they were trying to wrestle him and they gassed out. 508 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 2: You know, these are guys who Johnson probably had the 509 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 2: striking advantage against. Have they just fought a striking match 510 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 2: for fifteen minutes. If he fights a striking match for 511 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 2: fifteen minutes against Josh Van, I think he gets torn up. 512 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 2: I think Johnson actually needs to maybe grapple in this fight. 513 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 2: Van has shown a little bit of susceptible takedown defense. 514 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 2: You can control him for a little bit on the ground, 515 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 2: and I think Johnson should be the one mixing it 516 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 2: up a little bit here, because, yeah, I think his 517 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 2: comeback wins been a result of opponents trying to grapple him, 518 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 2: tiring out, and then going away a little bit. Where 519 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 2: Johnson had the striking edge, I don't see that happening 520 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 2: in this fight. I think Van's cardio is equal, if 521 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: not better. I think they both built in rounds two 522 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 2: in round three, it's it's almost like a Stylistically, it's 523 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 2: a bit of a mirror fight because they both tend 524 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 2: to take round one off, you know, resist the opponent, 525 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 2: make sure they're still around and then they build the 526 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 2: longer their fight goes. So it was a lean for 527 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 2: me in terms of Van as a live play, just 528 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 2: because of Johnson's recent opponents and how he won those fights, 529 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 2: you know, and expecting that maybe the live market is 530 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 2: going to give him a little bit too much respect 531 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 2: after round one. But I prefer Van as the side. 532 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 2: I like your look on the KO prop. You know, 533 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 2: I think almost everybody betting this would probably be betting 534 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 2: Van by decision if they're playing a prop. Just because 535 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 2: Johnson's so durable, this one seems likely to go to 536 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,919 Speaker 2: a decision. But yeah, fun fight between Charles Johnson and 537 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 2: Josh Fann. I have a bunch of roundrops. 538 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 4: Everyone's durable until they're not. 539 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 3: That's people always say, Like everyone thought, you know, Drew 540 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 3: Dober is not gonna get knocked out. 541 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 4: Us included. 542 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,360 Speaker 3: We had a bad call against Matt Fromola. But everyone's 543 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 3: Chim's great until it isn't. In a twenty two to 544 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 3: twenty three year old kid with increasing power, who's going 545 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 3: to hit you nine times for a minute, might be 546 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 3: when you find out it's not there anymore, hit you 547 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 3: a lot again. 548 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 4: In this plus four hundred, I'm not hitching a lot to. 549 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 2: Body at elevation too. That's that's the key He's He's 550 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 2: gonna work like Van really mixes it up well. His 551 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 2: offensive striking is really dynamic. I mean, he's already one 552 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 2: of the better offensive strikers at Flyway. So that's kind 553 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 2: of why I think Johnson might need some grappling success 554 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 2: to break up the pressure to win the fight. Some 555 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 2: round props. I'm targeting Christian Rodriguez round one to plus 556 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 2: four forty. Juliana Rossa tends to get knocked out like 557 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 2: in one of the first exchanges, or he goes the 558 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 2: full fifteen minutes. I think he's been knocked out in 559 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 2: round three once. But other than that, like he gets 560 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 2: clipped early, he wobbles. You either finish him or the 561 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,360 Speaker 2: fight keeps going. And if this fight extends, I think 562 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 2: a Rosa is gonna be a problem for Sea Rod 563 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,640 Speaker 2: just because similar similar to just what I said with Johnson, 564 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 2: Sea Rod has just sort of been resisting grapplers, letting 565 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 2: them tire out, and then taking over a round two 566 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 2: and round three. Now, I think he's actually a very 567 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 2: dynamic striker. We haven't seen him be able to get 568 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 2: the type of matchups to prove how dynamic he is 569 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 2: on the feet. Uh, and when he's not facing a 570 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 2: wrestler and he can open up a little bit more 571 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 2: with the striking. I think you're really going to see it, 572 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 2: you know, Shine that said Erosa can grapple. He's just 573 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 2: not the best wrestlers. 574 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 4: I don't. 575 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 2: I don't see him getting Sea Rods to the ground 576 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 2: like Golbarian dat, even like Cameron Samon did, or it 577 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 2: was a camera Sam that we fought. I know, I 578 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 2: know he fought Rosas Junior. 579 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 4: I don't know if Ye took Sam down three times. 580 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, Josh Wade around one. 581 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 3: JSP took him down, but that was like super short notice. 582 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 3: MJSP takes everyone down, Like that's one of those that 583 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 3: you go, yeah, no, one doesn't count. 584 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 2: Rosa probably is the best submission grappling of all those guys, 585 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 2: but the worst wrestling among that group too, So you know, 586 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 2: if the fight hits the ground or Rosa dangerous, but 587 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 2: Sea rod is so like not only durable, but good 588 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 2: at surviving submission attempts, good at just staying safe eventually 589 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 2: getting fights back to the feet. Now, Arosa is not 590 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 2: going to tire out so you know, from a live 591 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 2: betting perspective, I don't really love Sea Rod either. I 592 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 2: think like we're Sea Rod has been the one coming 593 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 2: on late against guys who tried to wrestle him, didn't 594 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 2: have a success or did have success but eventually tired out. 595 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 2: If Arosa survives the early round, he's just in your 596 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 2: face and he's gonna make this close and competitive. I 597 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 2: do think i'm Sea Rod absolute hardware advantage. You know, 598 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 2: he may clip him in rounds two, rounds three, but yeah, 599 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 2: if this gets out of round one, I think it's 600 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 2: close to competitive. I think it may go the distance. 601 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: So see Rod round one plus four to forty and 602 00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 2: then after that just watch and enjoy three different fights. 603 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: Round two, round three props Angelusa Round two, round three 604 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 2: plus twenty four hundred plus twenty six out of respectively. 605 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 2: His opponent bon Fieme, the Bonfiet brothers. Neither of them 606 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 2: have good cardio. This one particularly tired out last time 607 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 2: in Brazil, in his home country, and now he's going 608 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,679 Speaker 2: up to elevation. Loose is a bit of a quitter. 609 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 2: You know, I don't really like either of these fighters, 610 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 2: but Bonfim given the cardio concerns he showed at sea level. 611 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 2: I have major concerns about him fighting at elevation. So 612 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,239 Speaker 2: LUSA live bett after round one and then his round two, 613 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 2: round three props. Cody Brundage bet his over one and 614 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 2: a half against Bo Nickel. That was a great bet. 615 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 2: But Cody Brundage I think is very likely to get 616 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 2: finished here by Abdul Razak al Hassan. The big difference 617 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 2: in what concerns me is the age. Alhasen is much older, 618 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 2: much likelier to be falling off of a cliff. I 619 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 2: just don't think brudg is a good fighter. He's got 620 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 2: into the UFC because his opponent broke his arm in 621 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 2: Contender series he won via slam ko in the UNFC. 622 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 2: Like this, this guy in Billy's luck ratings is like 623 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 2: the quick deessential, Like this guy keeps getting by and 624 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 2: I guess this is supposed to be the favor fight 625 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 2: that he gets for taking the Boat Nickel fight too brutal. 626 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's the easiest fight they're going to 627 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 3: give him at middle late, right. 628 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 2: I guess it is. But yeah, al Haassen just much 629 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 2: better hardware. I think he's actually improved too. He went 630 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 2: out to Colorado three fights back, and even though he's 631 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 2: in his late thirties, he's showing like improved cardio, actually 632 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 2: sustaining it into the second and third round of his fight. 633 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,120 Speaker 2: So I think Ohasson actually has a clear cardio advantage here. 634 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 2: You know, again, assuming like the age differential is not 635 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 2: going to cause him to fall off of a cliff, 636 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 2: which is why I'm not betting his money line at 637 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 2: minus one seventy. But we had round two plus six hundred, 638 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 2: Round three for Alhassen at plus twelve hundred, big cardio 639 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 2: advantage over Cody Brudge Josh Fremd the final plus seven 640 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 2: hundred and plus one thousand, respectively against Andrea Petrowski. Friend 641 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 2: now trains in Colorado. He used to train, I believe 642 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,720 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania like Patrol he does. Yeah, he's now training 643 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 2: at Factory X, and we tie in Colorado. He should 644 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 2: have the better gas tank here. Petrowsky should be the 645 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 2: better athlete, the stronger athlete. In round one, I think 646 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 2: he can absolutely choke Fremed doubt. But after round one 647 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 2: Petrosky's effectiveness falls off of a cliff. I know he 648 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: has that pair of round three finishes on his record, 649 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,479 Speaker 2: he looked like he was gassing in those fights badly. 650 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 2: His opponents were just gassing worse. I think Fremd is 651 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 2: going to have a big cardy advantage down the stretch 652 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 2: of this fight, So fremed live and then rounds two 653 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: and rounds three. Sorry to go against your live bet billy, 654 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 2: which I'll go ahead and tease out that we're gonna 655 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 2: jump to in a moment, But yeah, I think this 656 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 2: is a good card for live betting. I think this 657 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: is a card for late round props and just you know, 658 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 2: my best bet on this card I'm just gonna get 659 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 2: to it is to live bet this card. Just be 660 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 2: around at seven pm to start live betting this card 661 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 2: because there's at least six fights, maybe seven fights out 662 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 2: of the twelve that I think are good for live 663 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 2: betting purposes. As I mentioned at Dual rozak Al Hasan 664 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 2: drew dover Josh Fremd. Angelosa want to the prelim fight 665 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 2: between Maria Goppova and Juana Santos as well. Santos a 666 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 2: minus four on her favorite. Goppova lost as a minus 667 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 2: fifteen hundred favorite against Shannon Dobson. I think she's one 668 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 2: of the biggest favorites in the UFC history to lose. 669 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: That was one of the first cards at the Apex, 670 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 2: I believe too, when we were in the midst of 671 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 2: the pandemic, so a lot of people saw that upset happen. 672 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 2: But yeah, Santos should submit her probably and would imagine 673 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 2: if a Goppova is any success in round one, you 674 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 2: actually may get a decent price on Santos to come 675 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 2: back live. And then finally, as I mentioned, Josh Fan 676 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 2: potentially in that fight, and also the black Sheer and 677 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 2: Johnson fight. So lots of live betting angles on this 678 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 2: card through UC Denver fighting up at elevation. Don't have 679 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 2: heavyweights or light heavyweights, but a couple of middleweight fights. 680 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 2: Got a bunch of cardio dynamics that I think lend 681 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 2: itself to good live betting spots are at least good 682 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 2: late prop spots. Billy, why don't we finish off having 683 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 2: a little discussion about this, Adria Petrowski Josh Frump fight. 684 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 2: Absolutely agree with you Andrei Petrowski the pre fight side, 685 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 2: But why do you think he has a better chance 686 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 2: of actually winning the fight than I do? 687 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just a it's an almost tailor made match 688 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 3: up for Petrowski against a tall, skinny guy and Josh Fremt, 689 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 3: who can't grapple. Petrowski is one of the better pure grapplers, 690 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 3: arguably in the UFC, certainly in the middleweight division. He 691 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 3: does pro grappling events like two or three, like you know, 692 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 3: at least one or two between all of his fights. 693 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 3: He's really out here pushing that hard. Also a bigger, stronger, 694 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 3: more explosive guy. With that said, I'm totally with you 695 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 3: on the live bet. On the other side, also part 696 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 3: of it, I got Petrowski at plus money earlier in 697 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 3: the week. That was in my luck ratings. I'm sorry, 698 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 3: I'm kind of shotgutting here, but last point on that. 699 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 3: Petrowski was five to zero in the UFC. He took 700 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 3: a super short notice fight against Michelle Paieda and lost 701 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 3: Peeda's on a tear at one eighty five. 702 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 4: There's no shame in that. 703 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 3: And then he was winning the fight against Jacob Malcoun 704 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 3: before he shot a really hard double leg, banged his 705 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 3: head on Malcolm's hip and knocked himself out. That's one 706 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 3: of those where on the one hand, it's very concerning 707 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 3: that that happened, but it's probably more of a fluke 708 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 3: than it is like his chin so bad he knocked 709 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 3: himself out. No, it was just a weird angle, he 710 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 3: got a stinger. Weird stuff happened. Like, that's my read 711 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 3: on that one. I am with you on the live side. 712 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 3: That The only live spot I'm going to push back 713 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 3: on is the Judo thunder verse. 714 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 4: Cody Brundage. 715 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 3: Al Hassan is zero to six in fights that have 716 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 3: gone past five and a half minutes in his career. 717 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 3: He is never won a fight that made it more 718 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 3: than thirty seconds into the second round. Brundage's not a 719 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 3: great cardio guy either, trains in Denver, can wrestle a 720 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 3: little bit. I'm not saying I'm betting Cody live. I'm 721 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 3: saying that's another one where I think you watch a 722 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 3: little bit more if Cody fails three four takedowns, one 723 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 3: hundred percent with you on al Hassan. If Cody's being 724 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 3: a little bit more patient in the first round, I 725 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,479 Speaker 3: think that makes him the side. So yeah, those are 726 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 3: the two where I in some ways disagree with you. 727 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 3: Not that I'm pushing back too hard on either, but yeah, 728 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 3: I think it's Petrowski pre fight frammed live in the 729 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 3: Battle of Pennsylvania. And then I think Cody's a little 730 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 3: bit underrated as a live choice depending on how the 731 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 3: first round goes. 732 00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. I mean Brunders is a five 733 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 2: round win from earlier in his career on the regional scene. 734 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 2: Like he's he's won decisions, he's been five rounds. I 735 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 2: just I see significant improvements from Alhason since he's moved 736 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 2: to Colorado. And I just don't think Broudage is UFC level, 737 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 2: you know. It's I respect anybody who makes this level. 738 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 2: I am certainly not UFC caliber, you know. And I 739 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 2: don't mean as an insult. I just feel like he's 740 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 2: a cup below these other fighters. And I feel like 741 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 2: if you put him up against a lot of the 742 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 2: guys that Al has in his face, I think he 743 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 2: meets a similar, if not worse fate. It's just kind 744 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,360 Speaker 2: of comparing class against class. You know. Al Hasson was 745 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 2: like putting it on Hallkeey Buckley in round three. That 746 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 2: was yes, I know, he lost the fight. He looked 747 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 2: really good in the third round of that fight. It 748 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 2: was like shocking to see the improved Cardio, and I 749 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 2: think that was the first fight when he had moved 750 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,400 Speaker 2: to Colorado. Then he'd be Claudia Orbero Kaotom got killed 751 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 2: or not kaoed by Joe Piper, but I think knocked 752 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 2: down and then submitted by Joe Piper. So Brudage would 753 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 2: die immediately against Joe Piper probably right like would would 754 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 2: Brundage make it seven minutes with Joe Piper. I'm not 755 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 2: saying like, oh, you know this is the one for 756 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 2: one like transitive property thing, but like, I think Brundage 757 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 2: dies on the first exchange against Joe Piper. And that's 758 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 2: just me comparing the hardware against hardware. I think Alhassen 759 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,240 Speaker 2: is just like better athlete, bigger, stronger, probably slightly more durable. 760 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 2: But yeah, Brounage, like Top time Wrestling Cardio, it might 761 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 2: be there. I just think Ohasen has improved a little bit. 762 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 2: So I really don't want to spend this much time 763 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 2: talking about a thirty year old, thirty eight year old fighter, 764 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 2: whof he if he loses, he's probably gonna get cut. 765 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 2: But you know, I think it's worth just considering just 766 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,560 Speaker 2: before we sign off, Like a lot of times I 767 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 2: have very formed opinions of what these guys are in 768 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,719 Speaker 2: my head. You know, Alonzo Metifield, the dual razak alhasan 769 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 2: like bet them in round one, live bet against them 770 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 2: after round one. That's like almost always the way I've 771 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 2: always approached fights. I think it's interesting to watch your 772 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 2: guy develop late in his career. You don't expect it. 773 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 2: You don't expect like guys to improve or change their 774 00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 2: style or improve their cardio late in their career. So 775 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 2: just just keep an open mind, watch that recent tape 776 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 2: and look for improvements, because not only did he improve 777 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,439 Speaker 2: the cardio on my mind, but there was a reason 778 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 2: why it improved. He went to Colorado and he started 779 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 2: training with New Camp at elevations, so particularly Team Elevation 780 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 2: in Colorado. 781 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 3: I mean he went up to one eight five in 782 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 3: that span too, which probably a part of it. Yeause 783 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 3: he was fighting welter before that. Not only was he 784 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 3: fighting welterweight, he was badly missing weight at welterweight before that. 785 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 4: So like that kind of heavy cut, it does make sense. 786 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,319 Speaker 3: And I'm with you on brundage not truly being UFC level, 787 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,360 Speaker 3: but until like the last few years, we would have 788 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 3: not thought ebuel Zacha Alisanma was the UFC level not 789 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 3: I'm not saying because he's gotten better. I'm saying because 790 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,399 Speaker 3: what we think of is UFC level has came down 791 00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:57,879 Speaker 3: a little bit. 792 00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:58,359 Speaker 2: It has. 793 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 3: It's a sloppy metalweight fight between two not great guys, 794 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 3: kind of happy to take plus money pre fight on 795 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 3: either one, I think, but live it's I'm not convinced 796 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 3: one way or the other. Live, I think you need 797 00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 3: to watch it and see. You know, is all I'm 798 00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 3: settling out for a knockout? Is Cody Brundage messing up 799 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 3: a bunch of takedowns. That's gonna be what the terms 800 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:19,040 Speaker 3: it for me? 801 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 2: Absolutely yeah, yeah. First round dynamics very similar, you know 802 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 2: to the Jackson Black cheer fight. Like, watch the first 803 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,640 Speaker 2: round dynamics. I think you can there's an argument you 804 00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 2: can go either way with a live bet, but I 805 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 2: do have a side that I think is likelier to 806 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 2: the side that I will be live betting, and that'll 807 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,200 Speaker 2: do it for us. For the USC betting preview on 808 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast presented by Ben MGM. Thank you 809 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,360 Speaker 2: for tuning in. You can find more UC betting content 810 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 2: on Action network dot com. Billy's luck ratings all of 811 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,760 Speaker 2: a main event preview. We'll have all of our staff 812 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,839 Speaker 2: best bets and other fight previews as well. Don't forget 813 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,400 Speaker 2: to download the free, award winning Action Network app. You 814 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 2: can find all of our bets for this weekend uploaded 815 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,440 Speaker 2: in there eventually, and best of luck with those bets 816 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:10,800 Speaker 2: this weekend the next five on the actions. 817 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:16,239 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 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