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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zachera J

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Speaker 1: J Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in

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Speaker 1: this episode ten seventy eight of the Late Round Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. If you're listening to

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Speaker 1: this show during the offseason, especially here in January, then

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Speaker 1: you're a more hardcore fantasy manager than most, which means

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Speaker 1: you're looking for some deeply research content. The Late Round

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Speaker 1: newsletter is exactly that. Brandon Godola has been with the

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Speaker 1: company for just a few weeks and he's been cranking

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Speaker 1: out amazing research via that newsletter each week. On Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: he did a deep dive on how coaching changes impact offenses,

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Speaker 1: and then I sent one out yesterday on slot receivers.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about that in just a second. You

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Speaker 1: can sign up for that newsletter for free just at

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Speaker 1: the Lateround dot com. Click newsletter and type in your

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Speaker 1: email address. That's it again, that's Late Round dot com.

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Speaker 1: It's a mailbag day, though. Let's get to these questions.

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Speaker 1: The first ones from Twitter is from at RHCP Vikings.

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Speaker 1: It says thoughts on Trayvon Henderson versus Ramandre Stephenson going

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Speaker 1: into next year, Henderson played I think like four snaps Sunday,

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Speaker 1: so here, I am not even in the fantasy season anymore,

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Speaker 1: still talking about this Patriots backfield. What a world. But

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Speaker 1: in all seriousness, this is a really, really valid question.

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Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of wild narratives out there on

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Speaker 1: social media this week already about that backfield, specifically people

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Speaker 1: just saying that Ramandre Stephenson has been significantly better than

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Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson all season long, and now Henderson is just

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Speaker 1: a boomer bust player. I just think there's an insane

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Speaker 1: amount of recency bias going on with a take like that,

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Speaker 1: because Ramondre Stevenson really has been good over the last

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Speaker 1: month or so, genuinely objectively, but season long numbers don't

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Speaker 1: paint this picture of like Stevenson being so far and

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Speaker 1: away the better running back in that backfield. In fact,

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Speaker 1: you guys probably remember, but back in like week thirteen

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Speaker 1: or so, Henderson was the one who analytically looked so

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Speaker 1: much better than Ramandre Stevenson. But when you combine regular

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Speaker 1: and postseason numbers, according exten Stats, Henderson had a better

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Speaker 1: EPA per rush than Stevenson this year. That's not amazingly

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Speaker 1: surprising because Henderson showed off that big playability and EPA

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Speaker 1: per rush. It's gonna favor big play running backs, which

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Speaker 1: is fine, that's just part of the metric. And Stevenson

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Speaker 1: also dealt with fumbles early on. So the next stat

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Speaker 1: to look at is success rate. Success rate is more binary.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't favor players who just make those big plays

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Speaker 1: and sort of warp their statistics, so it's sort of

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Speaker 1: discounting those extra yards and expected points that a player

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Speaker 1: like Henderson might generate. There was a tweet that I

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Speaker 1: saw where someone said, like Ramandre Stevenson is just so

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Speaker 1: much more successful each rush, Henderson is more boom or bust.

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Speaker 1: Data doesn't agree with that at all. Us a season,

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Speaker 1: both regular and postseason, Henderson has had a forty percent

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Speaker 1: success rate to Stevenson's thirty seven percent, and to be clear,

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Speaker 1: both players were within four percentage points of each other

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Speaker 1: when it came to a percentage of inside rushes and

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Speaker 1: stack boxes faced. What's interesting is that Stevenson is actually

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Speaker 1: boosting both of his numbers in EPA per rush and

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Speaker 1: success rate with what he's done in the postseason, which

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Speaker 1: again I said at the top recency bias, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are seeing him play well, seeing

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Speaker 1: him play well in a national stage, and drawing conclusions

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Speaker 1: based on that. Now, Stevenson's been better than Henderson within

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Speaker 1: a metric like rushing yards over expected per rush, because

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Speaker 1: Henderson's expected yards per carry is just simply higher than Stevenson's.

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Speaker 1: I don't want you to walk away from this show

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Speaker 1: thinking that I believe Trayveon Henderson has been better than

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Speaker 1: Ramandre Stevenson. I'm merely pointing out that this is not

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Speaker 1: some clear cut, obvious case where in all circumstances, Ramandre

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Speaker 1: Stevenson has been better because earlier this season he was not.

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Speaker 1: I think what we're seeing right now is that he's

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Speaker 1: the veteran and he's more reliable, especially in pass pro,

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Speaker 1: especially in these big moments. I even tweeted during the

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Speaker 1: AFC Championship game and I said that quote. Talked about

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Speaker 1: this on the podcast on Friday, but Ramandre Stevenson really

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Speaker 1: stepped up the final month or so of the season,

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Speaker 1: and I took my l don't worry. Has been a

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Speaker 1: totally different inspired player. This current environment is why they

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Speaker 1: need him. And I sent that tweet during that AFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game, the snow was coming down, the weather wasn't

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Speaker 1: very good. They needed that bruiser. They needed Ramandre Stevenson.

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Speaker 1: Stevenson wins in different ways than Henderson does. We've talked

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Speaker 1: about that, we've known about that all year. I still

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Speaker 1: to this day don't think that they're using Henderson optimally,

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Speaker 1: But that's for another discussion. The fact is New England's

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Speaker 1: been in some games this postseason, in particular, where they've

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Speaker 1: needed that bruiser, and that's more Remandre Stevenson style than

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Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson's. They've seen positive game scripts, they've faced offenses

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Speaker 1: that have been lighting up the scoreboard, their defense is

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Speaker 1: playing really well. All of that is a formula for

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Speaker 1: a player like Stevenson, not Henderson. I think that, combined

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Speaker 1: with the potential shoulder injury for Henderson, that's why we

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Speaker 1: saw so much Stevenson in that game against Denver. Now

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Speaker 1: what this looks like beyond this season is kind of

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Speaker 1: anyone's guess because running back usage it comes down to

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Speaker 1: a coaching decision. You guys are probably so sick of

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Speaker 1: me saying that, but it's true. Running backs like Henderson

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Speaker 1: tend to progress and see more work for him I

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Speaker 1: think that'll come in the form of receiving, especially, But

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Speaker 1: we can't deny a couple of things here. Number One,

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Speaker 1: Ramandre Stevenson is very likely gonna be there in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six. It looks like his contract has an out,

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Speaker 1: but that out is in twenty twenty seven, and his

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Speaker 1: play really does mesh well with Trayvon Henderson. That means

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Speaker 1: I'm still expecting someone of a decent split in the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty sixth season. This run that New England's currently

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Speaker 1: only reinforces that point in my opinion, So I think

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Speaker 1: things would look a lot different for this backfield if

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Speaker 1: Stevenson didn't turn it up during the final month of

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Speaker 1: the year, and if New England didn't go on this

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Speaker 1: playoff run where they've been forced a little bit to

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Speaker 1: lean on that bigger running back. But that's just the

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Speaker 1: reality of what happened. That's where we're at, and it's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna hurt Trayvon Henderson at least in this short term,

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Speaker 1: at least in twenty twenty six. The best question from

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Speaker 1: twitters from at the Doune at thirteen. It says, which

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Speaker 1: free agent running back are you most excited? Slash curious

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Speaker 1: to see where they sign. The answer to this has

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Speaker 1: to be Travis Etn in my opinion. On one hand,

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Speaker 1: Etn had a good season from a fantasy perspective, especially

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Speaker 1: relative to cost. On the other, how good was he actually? Now,

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Speaker 1: most running back metrics they tell us what happened. They're

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Speaker 1: more descriptive than predictive. So when you hear running back numbers,

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Speaker 1: you should always take them with a grain of salt.

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Speaker 1: With that being said, I bet you Travis TN's numbers

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Speaker 1: they're worse than you'd imagine. Next Gen Stats has forty

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Speaker 1: eight qualified running backs in their data set. For twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Of those forty eight, Etn ranked thirty second

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Speaker 1: and rushing yards over expected per attempt right above what

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Speaker 1: he marks, right below Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker. He

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Speaker 1: was forty first, and success rate right above Saquon Barkley

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Speaker 1: and right below Ramandre Stevenson. He was thirty third in

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Speaker 1: EPA per rush, and he was twenty ninth and yards

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Speaker 1: after contact per attempt. Meanwhile, PFF, among that same qualified group,

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Speaker 1: ranked Etn thirty fourth in rushing grade. For what that's worth,

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Speaker 1: I mean, by most metrics, Travis Etn wasn't special in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, but by many counting statistics, he was fantastic.

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Speaker 1: And you add on the narrative of what that Jags

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Speaker 1: offense was able to do, and there's probably a team

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Speaker 1: out there. Maybe it's even the Jacks who can tell

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Speaker 1: themselves a favorable story about Travis Etn being their bellcow.

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Speaker 1: But Etn's really interesting too because Beshall Tutin is just

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Speaker 1: sitting there in that Jacksonville depth chart. Tutin looked really

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Speaker 1: good in this model this past year. And for what

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Speaker 1: it's worth, Tooton's success rate was eleven percentage points higher

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Speaker 1: than Etns this past year. So that's got to be

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Speaker 1: the free agent running back that I'm most interested in watching.

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Speaker 1: He not only is a tough evaluation, but he could

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Speaker 1: go to a team and be their bellcal all while

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Speaker 1: opening things up for the second year base Shall Tuton.

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Speaker 1: This best Questions from Blue Skies from at nyt Man.

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Speaker 1: It says which running backs in the top thirty and

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five are most at risk of losing touches

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Speaker 1: via the team pursuing a running back and free agency

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Speaker 1: or Day two pick in the NFL draft. Do you

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Speaker 1: want to try and predict surprises that we should be

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Speaker 1: on the lookout for. We're gonna see plenty of shifts

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Speaker 1: to backfields this offseason. It's a decent free agent class.

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Speaker 1: You have Travis Etn, Breize Hall, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams.

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Speaker 1: You could even throw in guys like Rico Dowell, maybe

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Speaker 1: even JK. Dobbins, Kenneth Gainwell, and then even deeper than that,

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Speaker 1: there's like Rashad White, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford. It's really

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Speaker 1: not a bad free agent class at all. All of

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Speaker 1: those teams backfields could then get a shakeup. I already

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Speaker 1: talked about Jacksonville, but the Jets could look totally different.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Seattle doesn't keep Kenneth Walker, though I do think

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Speaker 1: they're going to, especially because of Charbonnay's injury. The Cowboys

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Speaker 1: they're not locks to keep Davonte Williams, and Pittsburgh's backfield

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Speaker 1: that has a chance to look totally different too. That

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Speaker 1: was the one spot that I looked at first with

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Speaker 1: this question. Gainwell's a free agent. He finished RB twenty

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Speaker 1: and PPR points per game. Jalen Warren was RB nineteen.

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Speaker 1: There's even a potential out with Warren's contract this year.

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Speaker 1: But if you want a surprise spot for a rookie

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Speaker 1: or a free agent back, I'd look at San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: There seems to be a lot of chatter about Christian

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Speaker 1: McCaffrey's workload this past year, which I totally understand. He

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Speaker 1: had three hundred and eleven rush attempts and one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty nine targets. He was second among running backs

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Speaker 1: and rush attempts this year, and he was first by

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Speaker 1: far in targets. They ran him into the ground. Now,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be surprised if they just re signed

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Speaker 1: Brian Robinson, but he's a free agent, so that's at

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Speaker 1: least a surprising place to watch. And then here's another

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Speaker 1: surprising spot, how about Denver. JK. Dobbins is a free agent.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout his career,

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Speaker 1: and he wasn't able to stay healthy this past year. RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey would hypothetically step in and take things in that

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Speaker 1: next level as a second year player. He finishes the

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Speaker 1: RB twenty four and PPR points per game last year.

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Speaker 1: But I didn't think RJ. Harvey was that special running

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Speaker 1: the football in twenty twenty five. Now, I won't take

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Speaker 1: these metrics as gospel similar to the stuff that I

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Speaker 1: talked about with ETN earlier, but it's still interesting. Listen In,

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Speaker 1: Harvey had the worst EPA per rush compared to JK.

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Speaker 1: Dobbins Juli McLoughlin in twenty twenty five, so behind that

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Speaker 1: same offensive line, his EPA per rush was worst. He

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Speaker 1: had the worst success rate of the group two, and JK.

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Speaker 1: Dobbins had a rushing yards over expected per attempt of

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Speaker 1: plus one point one. RJ. Harvey's was minus point six

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Speaker 1: and actually, among forty qualified running backs those ones that

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Speaker 1: I talked about earlier, Harvey's rushing yards over expected per

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Speaker 1: attempt was only better than Alvin Kamara and Bucky Irving,

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Speaker 1: and that was behind the seventh best run blocking offensive

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Speaker 1: line in the league according to PFF. And look, let's

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Speaker 1: be real. This Sean Payton offense is always a multi

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Speaker 1: back offense. I'm not saying they necessarily go out and

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Speaker 1: they spend a top two round pick on a running

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Speaker 1: back or anything, but a pretty decent free agent running

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Speaker 1: back is on the table to compliment RJ. Harvey, or

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Speaker 1: maybe they just go back to JK. Dobbins, which, as

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Speaker 1: we saw in twenty twenty five, that has at least

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Speaker 1: some chance to cap Harvey's ceiling. But he's definitely something

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Speaker 1: to keep an eye on despite him only being a

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Speaker 1: second year player. The last question this week is from Patreon.

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Speaker 1: It's from Noah. It says, with your recent analysis of

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Speaker 1: non elite wide receivers, how do you think this is

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Speaker 1: going to impact your future rookie rankings? Do you anticipate

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Speaker 1: to diminish the value of non first rounders more so

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Speaker 1: than in the past. So my general answer to this

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Speaker 1: is no. We have to remember that the elite wide

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Speaker 1: receivers in fantasy football, they actually will look better with

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Speaker 1: the way that offenses have trended. If you have one

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Speaker 1: of those elite wide receivers, you're in really good shape.

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Speaker 1: You have a big advantage, a big edge over your

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Speaker 1: league mates. Players like pukin Akua, Jackson Smith, and Jigba.

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Speaker 1: They should be great and the only way to get

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Speaker 1: that next one, to get that next elite wide receivers

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Speaker 1: to draft them in your rookie drafts. Now, we don't

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Speaker 1: know exactly who those players are gonna be, but we

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Speaker 1: need to take our chances or else we're never gonna

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Speaker 1: have those players. Now, I tease this a little bit

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Speaker 1: at the top. What one area where I might change

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Speaker 1: my approach a little bit is with slot receivers. I

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Speaker 1: sent a newsletter out about this yesterday because the data

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Speaker 1: is really interesting. Now. Obviously, when we see more twelve

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Speaker 1: personnel usage or heavier sets, more tight end heavy sets,

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Speaker 1: that means we'll see less slot receiver usage because we

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Speaker 1: have fewer wide receivers on the field on a given

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Speaker 1: play and that heavier personnel. And data has shown that

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Speaker 1: that's generally been the case. Over the last few years,

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Speaker 1: we've seen a pretty significant decline and the raw number

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Speaker 1: of wide receivers who have finished their season with three

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Speaker 1: hundred and more routes run and a fifty percent, sixty percent,

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Speaker 1: and seventy percent slot rate. Now, I don't want to

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Speaker 1: remove that route's run threshold because I don't care about

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Speaker 1: receivers who run like ten routes and seven of those

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Speaker 1: routes come from the slot, because those receivers aren't relevant.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't tell us that much. I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: see if more of the full time slot receivers are

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Speaker 1: kind of dying in this sport. In twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: we only had three wide receivers get to three hundred

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Speaker 1: routes run and a seventy percent slot rate. The average

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Speaker 1: from twenty eleven onward, according to PFF data, was closer

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Speaker 1: to twelve of those players per season. We had three,

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Speaker 1: and it's been like that over the last three years. Specifically,

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Speaker 1: over the last two we've seen fewer and fewer pure

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Speaker 1: slot guys and that's translated to fantasy too. And twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five only one wide receiver of those three with

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Speaker 1: a seventy percent slot rate and three hundred routes run.

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Speaker 1: Only one of him hit ten PPR points per game.

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Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven, we usually see five of those players

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Speaker 1: per season. Meanwhile, if you take the number of slot

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Speaker 1: targets seen by tight ends and wide receivers over the

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Speaker 1: last fifteen years per season, the percentage of those targets

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Speaker 1: going to wide receivers is declining, meaning wide receiver slot

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Speaker 1: target share is going down. It peaked around twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, when eleven personnel was super common, when we

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Speaker 1: had those three wide receiver sets all over the NFL,

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Speaker 1: but it's trended downward ever since. So what that means

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Speaker 1: is that if there's a prospect out there who didn't

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Speaker 1: prove that he could win on the outside in college,

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Speaker 1: one who profiles pretty strictly as a slot we should

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Speaker 1: probably discount that player. If that kind of player exists

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Speaker 1: in your redraft league, you should make sure he's going

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Speaker 1: to play in an offense that features more eleven personnel,

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Speaker 1: because that's actually going to get him on the field. Now,

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Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about this over the years, just

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Speaker 1: generally speaking that slot production could be really, really valued,

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Speaker 1: but you want your wide receivers who are playing in

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Speaker 1: the slot to also play out wide, like we've seen

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Speaker 1: with like an Amen Ross Saint Brown with a CD

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Speaker 1: Lamb in the past. You don't want a Josh Downs

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Speaker 1: or Jaden Red type situation where they're both extremely talented

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Speaker 1: players and in my opinion, they can probably win on

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Speaker 1: the outside, but they're limited in fantasy because their teams

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Speaker 1: just don't allow them to play outside of the slot.

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Speaker 1: So overall, nothing crazy has to happen with your wide

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Speaker 1: receiver evaluation in Dynasty, but I do think you should

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Speaker 1: keep that slot stuff in mind. That's it for today's show, though,

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Speaker 1: thanks to all of you for listening. If you had

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you are bestreting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can

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Speaker 1: be found it. Follow me on Twitter and on Blue

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Speaker 1: Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone, have

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Speaker 1: a great weekend. I'll catch you next week