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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Crushed it.

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Speaker 1: It's good without further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna leave it up there if you could make

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Speaker 3: su if you try that again, absolutely app trying to.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Finals Edition, coming

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Speaker 1: to you on Thursday night after game two a Suns

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Speaker 1: one eighteen bucks one oh eight Suns win to go

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Speaker 1: up to nothing in the series. Joining me as always

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson and Raheem Palmer. Reminder, everything that we talk

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Speaker 1: about on this podcast we found in the Action app,

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Speaker 1: which you should download immediately. It's absolutely fantastic. Also, the

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Speaker 1: odds that we talk about tonight are provided by Bett MGM,

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Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. And

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Speaker 1: if you like this podcast, you should be on the

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Speaker 1: lookout because here in a few weeks we're going to

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Speaker 1: be starting an actual, honest to goodness NBA podcast. Feed

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Speaker 1: the Action Network NBA Podcast multiple times a week. We'll

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Speaker 1: have guests. I'm just looking forward to what crazy shit

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Speaker 1: Brandon comes up with every week. In terms of long

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Speaker 1: odds for us to take. I'm excited for, like we're

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Speaker 1: the victory lap. I'm trying to get Matt Mitchell to

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Speaker 1: just call it the victory lap instead of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network NBA podcast. That's really what it is. I am

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Speaker 1: not going to get to take a victory lap after

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Speaker 1: I completely call Game one absolutely perfectly, and I'm telling you,

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Speaker 1: I am telling you, I'm telling you, I nailed this game.

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Speaker 1: I was right. The Bucks should have won this game.

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Speaker 1: I hit the over. I like the Bucks, and the

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Speaker 1: over I should have cashed. I got hit by shooting

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Speaker 1: variants in the ass once again, Raheem Palmer. Once again.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, shooting variants.

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Speaker 1: Comes and just knocks me out. I think the Bucks

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Speaker 1: played absolutely great defensive tonight. I think the Bucks' offense

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Speaker 1: did not create great looks because the Suns are a

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Speaker 1: really great defense. The difference is is that the Sun

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Speaker 1: shot the absolutely ever loving lights out versus great defense,

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Speaker 1: and the Bucks, even against great defense, shot magnitudes beneath that,

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Speaker 1: like whole leagues of shooting beneath that. If you take

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Speaker 1: the idea, I'm just gonna put this out there, if

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Speaker 1: you take the idea, right, this is what I'm learning

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Speaker 1: from Twitter is that people think that if a shooter

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Speaker 1: is open in the NBA in a game, not in practice.

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Speaker 1: In practice, I'd be like, yeah, you can shoot eighty percent.

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Speaker 1: He's an NBA player in a game that an open look,

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Speaker 1: they can hit it eighty percent of the time. That's

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Speaker 1: not true. They hit it between forty and maybe forty

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Speaker 1: five percent fifty percent if you're absolutely lucky, and that's

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Speaker 1: like only certain shooters, So certain guys should probably weigh

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Speaker 1: that down a little bit instead. Instead, the Phoenix Suns

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Speaker 1: shoot twenty of forty from three point range in this game,

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Speaker 1: including Michale Bridges turning into Clay Goddamn Thompson and Cameron

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Speaker 1: pay like not Camperyon paying, Cam Johnson hitting two threes,

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Speaker 1: Jay Crowder hitting three threes, Devin Booker hit seven to twelve.

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Speaker 1: I'll live with that. Fine, Devin can have those like

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Speaker 1: that's Devin Booker. Fine, But twenty of forty from three

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Speaker 1: point range while the Bucks shoot nine of thirty one

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Speaker 1: from three fine. We know that they're not great a

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Speaker 1: great shooting team, but she forty five percent overall, and

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Speaker 1: more specifically, Drew Holliday goes seven of twenty one, Chris

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Speaker 1: Middleton five of sixteen, and the Suns win and cover

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Speaker 1: to go up to Oh, I'm very on tilt right now, raheem.

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Speaker 1: I'm very on tilt from this game.

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Speaker 3: I mean you should be.

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Speaker 4: I mean, when you have your second and third best

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Speaker 4: players playing the way that you know Middleton and and

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Speaker 4: Holley are playing, it's just it's kind of inexplicable. And

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Speaker 4: you got the giannest game that you needed, you got

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Speaker 4: to like I mean, and they.

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Speaker 3: Came out hot. So it's just I just it's really unexplicable.

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Speaker 3: And I just think the.

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Speaker 4: Question I have for you is, at what point do

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Speaker 4: we just consider this is who this team is. They're

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Speaker 4: gonna struggle and have They're gonna have problems with shooting

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Speaker 4: variants and things just aren't gonna go their way because

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Speaker 4: you know, they've had bad shooting luck in every single

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Speaker 4: one of these series. I mean, you can go back

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Speaker 4: three years and it's been the same thing, and it's

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Speaker 4: just I wonder if that's something that you just have

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Speaker 4: to factor in to your handicapping.

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Speaker 1: I Mean, look, we came around to the idea on

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Speaker 1: the preview positive Suns are gonna win the series. My

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Speaker 1: concern is that my son's in six or seven is

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Speaker 1: not gonna cash now because they should have won this

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Speaker 1: sucking game and they didn't. Like I like, the Sons

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Speaker 1: are gonna win the series. They are better, Like, they

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Speaker 1: have more weapons, they have more answers, they're great defensively.

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Speaker 1: All of that is absolutely true. Yeah, My issue is

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Speaker 1: if I have to just if I have to just

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Speaker 1: factor in that good shooters like Chris Milton's a good shit.

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Speaker 1: If I have to factor in the good shooters are

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Speaker 1: gonna shoot bad, then what are we doing here? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: How is you almost need to be a fortune teller?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? How am I supposed to? How am I supposed

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Speaker 1: to bet NBA games based off of Like I've studied

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Speaker 1: the xce's note, Like I we did a video today

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Speaker 1: where I was talking about like Chris Paul and his

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Speaker 1: stuff and like I want to take the over on

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Speaker 1: heat check on his points because I was like, you

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Speaker 1: know what, he's just gonna find a way to get

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Speaker 1: over on the points. The points prop was twenty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. He goes for twenty three, like ty,

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Speaker 1: I think it was twenty and a half. Actually tight

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Speaker 1: makes one more contested three great? Uh the underhits on

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Speaker 1: his assists, which thought that would happen. They did a

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Speaker 1: pretty good job, honestly on Chris Paul. They did a

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Speaker 1: pretty good job Onston and Devin Booker before he got

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Speaker 1: super nova there for a little bit when they decided

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Speaker 1: to go small, Like there were things that budd did

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Speaker 1: wrong in the second half. Not playing Brook Lopez late

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Speaker 1: was mistake because you switch everything. We talked about this, right,

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Speaker 1: you switch everything and you give up the offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 1: And that's what happened to them, Like they should have

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Speaker 1: gone back big and they would have been fine. But like

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Speaker 1: it's that the variance only works one way, and it's like,

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Speaker 1: here's the problem. If the variants had gone the Bucks

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Speaker 1: just shoot badly. But you know what, the Sun shot normal.

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Speaker 1: I still think the Bucks win this game if the Buck.

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Speaker 1: If the Suns had shot unreasonably well but the Bucks

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Speaker 1: had shot normal, I still think the Bucks win this game.

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Speaker 1: It took the Bucks shooting a magnitude lower and the

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Speaker 1: Sun shooting a magnitude higher to get to this kind

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Speaker 1: of an outcome, and that's why I'm so frustrated.

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Speaker 3: Brandon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, really, it was really remarkable that the Bucks were

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Speaker 2: in that game, Like like they they took so many

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Speaker 2: punches and just kept hanging around. You know, it kept

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Speaker 2: being like, oh, it's an eight point game right now,

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Speaker 2: if they make the shot, Oh oh they missed. Oh

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Speaker 2: Sons transition three back to ten, back to eleven, and

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Speaker 2: then yeah, a couple more minutes and they'd be like, oh,

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Speaker 2: ot to pat content wide open for three brick and

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Speaker 2: lay up on the other end back to ten points.

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Speaker 2: They say like, how many times did the Bucks have

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Speaker 2: that shot to pull within two or three or four

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Speaker 2: or five somewhere in there? They missed every one of them.

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Speaker 2: They were like, oh, for eighty nine on those shots.

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Speaker 2: And then every time after they missed, the Sons would

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Speaker 2: go right back down, get another bucket, book would hit

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Speaker 2: a contested jumper. You know. They just every time that

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Speaker 2: that the Bucks would keep it close, they'd have another chance.

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Speaker 2: And I gotta say too, so before the series, I

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Speaker 2: was the one, I think, of the three of us,

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Speaker 2: who was most in on the Suns. I was the

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Speaker 2: one that was saying maybe sons and five. And I

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Speaker 2: took the Sons in game one. I liked them in

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Speaker 2: Game two, not enough to cover, so I stayed away

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Speaker 2: on this one. I thought that they might want a

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Speaker 2: close one, as I watched the first half. I really

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Speaker 2: thought the Bucks were gonna win this game and everything

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Speaker 2: everything we wanted would have wanted the Bucks to do

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Speaker 2: what was happening. You know, they were pounding it into

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Speaker 2: the paint. All the defensive adjustments they made were really good.

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Speaker 2: Drew Holliday was just absolutely hounding Chris Paul Early. I

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Speaker 2: thought that the way that they were trapping campaign was

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Speaker 2: really good. They really just took pain out of the

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Speaker 2: game almost entirely. He played like nine minutes and was

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Speaker 2: a total non factory. They were getting good looks, Like

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Speaker 2: think back to the first quarter. I think that the

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Speaker 2: Suns made like one or two two pointers the entire quarter.

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Speaker 2: They didn't even shoot a free throw until about halftime.

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Speaker 2: Like that, the Bucks should have been way up even early.

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Speaker 2: They were getting everything. The Suns just kept making threes,

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Speaker 2: and even back after one quarter, it was like, oh,

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Speaker 2: well it should be bigger, but the Suns are six

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Speaker 2: of eleven. And at halftime, I fired on the box.

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Speaker 2: I kept waiting, I was prowling. I was like just

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Speaker 2: refreshing the odds, watching for like, okay, when is it

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Speaker 2: going to hit that moment that I put my live

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Speaker 2: bed in on Milwaukee, and I finally said at halftime

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Speaker 2: at plus four point thirty, because shooting variants. I put

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Speaker 2: it into the opps shooting variance. Milauche on two percentage,

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Speaker 2: Milocke on three percentage, Phoenix on three percentage. It all

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Speaker 2: was shooting variants. It's always shooting variants. It's always in

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Speaker 2: forever going to be shooting variants. They are the Milwaukee

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Speaker 2: shooting variances. Let's just change the name, retire the team.

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Speaker 2: It's just what happened. I don't understand. I don't know

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Speaker 2: what you can do about this point.

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Speaker 4: So I have I mean, you know what a crazy

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Speaker 4: thing is. It doesn't even feel like it's just shooting variants.

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Speaker 4: It's I mean, Mett hennan on earlier with them taking

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Speaker 4: Lopez out. But it's just like they had it within six,

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Speaker 4: with like four or five minutes to go, Phoenix, they

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Speaker 4: Devin Booker misses a three, they get the offensive rebound,

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Speaker 4: Chris Paul misses a three, they get the offense of reband,

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Speaker 4: Devin Booker hits a three instep nine.

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Speaker 3: The games practically over at that point. So it's just.

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Speaker 1: There's two things on that though. So the second one

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Speaker 1: was just like Eighten's down there and he's beasting and YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 1: and it's the small and we talked about that, like

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Speaker 1: the small ball. A lot of these offensive rebounds were

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Speaker 1: like it. The ball bounces and goes like makes a

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Speaker 1: line drive for the nearest Suns player.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's what I mean. It's like the Bucks

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Speaker 4: just aren't catching breaks anywhere.

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Speaker 1: Ever, anywhere, like anywhere. And again, I want to stress this.

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Speaker 1: I think the Suns are better. The Sons are gonna

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Speaker 1: win the title. The Sons deserve to win the title.

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Speaker 1: They're the better team. My problem is is that when

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Speaker 1: we're betting these things, like you're trying to find the

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Speaker 1: best value, and the best value is for this to

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Speaker 1: be a close series. And I feel like I just

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Speaker 1: lost a ton of value because of this kind of performance.

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Speaker 1: I have the numbers, guys, and you're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: listen to me talk about them. Devin Booker shot seventeen

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Speaker 1: percent better from his actual EFG Versus is expected to

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Speaker 1: be a second spectrum. Chris Paul shot thirteen percent better. Okay,

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Speaker 1: those are star players. They're going to make tough shots.

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Speaker 1: I'll live with that.

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Speaker 3: Fine.

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Speaker 1: I can understand that Mikale Bridges shot twelve percent better.

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Speaker 1: He had a sixty three percent effective field goal percentage tonight. Now, listen,

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Speaker 1: you can sit there and say, like, but those are

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Speaker 1: all quality shots, Matt, He's open in the corner. That's

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Speaker 1: why I like this quantified shot quality data that's available

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Speaker 1: from Second Spectrum because it factors that in it's where

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Speaker 1: do you shoot from? How good of a shooter are you,

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Speaker 1: Where are you shooting from? How contested is the shot?

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Speaker 1: And based off of that data, he was supposed to

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Speaker 1: shoot fifty one percent, Mkale Bridges shoots fifty seven percent,

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Speaker 1: And I'm just like, a tough game can go either way.

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Speaker 1: He shoots sixty three percent on top of on top

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Speaker 1: of Jay Crowder, who had a sixty nine percent effective

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Speaker 1: field goal percentage versus an expected of fifty two. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand of this, Drew Holiday, oh boy, thirty

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Speaker 1: five percent EG versus a forty nine percent, And you

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Speaker 1: can say, like, well, look at that, his shots are

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Speaker 1: not high quality. I agree. If if he had shot

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Speaker 1: forty percent versus forty eight percent and the Suns had

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Speaker 1: done what they did today, the game is closer, but

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Speaker 1: the Bucks probably lose. But it's that the magnitude between

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Speaker 1: these differences is so huge. Middleton forty three percent expected.

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Speaker 1: That's a very low number. He shoot a bunch of

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Speaker 1: contested mid range jumpers. You're not supposed to make a

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Speaker 1: lot of those. He's still shot thirty four percent effective.

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Speaker 1: You'll coule percent. Oh my god, Like these numbers are

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Speaker 1: not like when I talk about the very and this

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Speaker 1: is this is where I get frustrateed on Twitter because

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Speaker 1: everybody's like, everybody's like, no, like they're bad shots. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I understand, but you should still make in the NBA,

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Speaker 1: if you're a talented player, a decent amount of even

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Speaker 1: your bad shots. And the Bucks played well enough on

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Speaker 1: both ends that if just their bad shots had gone

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Speaker 1: down at a bad rate, a normally bad rate, they

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Speaker 1: still probably been this game. And so that's like, what's

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Speaker 1: really And if you're wondering if the end result of

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Speaker 1: this is just it's a make or miss league, you're

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Speaker 1: absolutely right. It's just tough when I think, like I

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Speaker 1: am very adamant that I was on the right side

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Speaker 1: tonight that the Bucks money line was the play with

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Speaker 1: the over and Drew Holiday and Chris Middleton just add

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Speaker 1: I can't Here's the thing. Drew Holliday, I think genuinely

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Speaker 1: is just like in his head and rattled and giving

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Speaker 1: up open like he should be shooting more than he

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Speaker 1: is on threes, and like his decision making is poor.

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Speaker 1: Middleton I just think is missing shots. Like I think

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Speaker 1: he's just missing shots. Do I ask you Rain real quick?

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Speaker 1: Can we go ahead and say can I can you

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Speaker 1: just take like thirty seconds and apologize for ever slandering

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Speaker 1: Yannison and Kampo for not having Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean without a doubt.

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Speaker 4: I mean, like I'm watching the game tonight and it's

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Speaker 4: just it felt like Lebron in Cleveland and incredible. You know,

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Speaker 4: It's I always talk about him not having a bag

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Speaker 4: and everything like that, but regardless of the fact, he

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Speaker 4: super effective and he gets the job done. He put

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Speaker 4: the team on his back on both ends of the floor.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there was a black at one point in

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Speaker 4: the fourth quarter that I mean it kept him in

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Speaker 4: the game. And it's just he's going to the line

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Speaker 4: every trip down. If he had just any help one

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Speaker 4: of Drew or Chris show up tonight, you know they

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Speaker 4: might have won that game.

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Speaker 2: So do you guys think so Drew Holidays Eric Snow,

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Speaker 2: do you think that Middleton is Larry Hughes then? Or

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Speaker 2: what's then?

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Speaker 3: You picked the wrong Soun's wing for Finals MVP based

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Speaker 3: on tonight.

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Speaker 2: I know, I was thinking about that during the game.

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Speaker 1: Jannis through these two games is a plus four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: With him off the court. In twenty minutes, they've been

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Speaker 1: outscored by twenty seven points. All you gotta do is

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Speaker 1: not get absolutely viscerated. All you gotta do is just

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Speaker 1: not get absolutely annihilated. All you gotta do is just

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Speaker 1: not get destroyed.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for listening. Now back to the.

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Speaker 2: Show caveat here, Jannis like looked like he broke his

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Speaker 2: knee about a week ago. So this is not a

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Speaker 2: criticism of Yannis. This is a criticism of coach Bud.

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Speaker 2: We've been here before. A small but important difference tonight.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys noticed, even though the

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Speaker 2: Sun's guys came out with a little bit left, you know,

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Speaker 2: like a minute or half minut or something. Booker played

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Speaker 2: forty four minutes tonight. Aiden played forty two, Chris Paul

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Speaker 2: played forty one minutes, Browder and Michale played thirty seven minutes.

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Speaker 2: The Box guys played forty one, forty and thirty nine.

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Speaker 2: It's not that much difference, but it is three minutes

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Speaker 2: of Sun's starter's difference that the Bucks were instead playing

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Speaker 2: Bryn Forbes and Jeff Teague out there. You know why,

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Speaker 2: because the finals are spread out from now until October,

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Speaker 2: and there's two gay two days between every game going forward.

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Speaker 2: And Monty knew he plays guys those extra three minutes

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Speaker 2: because they got an extra couple of days off. Now

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Speaker 2: Bud forgot. Bud forgot to check the calendar. He forgot

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Speaker 2: to play his guys enough minutes again, and again, let's

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Speaker 2: be fair, Johannis probably doesn't have those extra three.

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Speaker 1: Minutes play anymore.

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Speaker 2: No, but Holiday and Middleton could play. Holliday and Middleton

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Speaker 2: could have played more than thirty nine minutes. He want Yes,

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Speaker 2: I want them to because my options otherwise are Bryn

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Speaker 2: Forbes and Jeff Teague and Pat Connaton taking even more

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Speaker 2: than nine to three pointers. Pat Connaton took nine three

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Speaker 2: pointers in NBA Finals game doing it.

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Speaker 1: Whoa, whoa, whoa, he made He made four to nine.

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Speaker 1: He's got that, Pat.

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Speaker 2: I realize he's not on for this.

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Speaker 1: He had fourteen. Pat was fine.

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Speaker 2: I'm not blaming him, I'm blaming the But like when

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Speaker 2: when the answer is Pat counton getting up nine three

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Speaker 2: pointers in the game, something has gone horribly wrong.

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Speaker 3: With tak any more.

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Speaker 2: Team construction.

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Speaker 1: Look, I think Forbes is bad. Well no, no, no, you

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Speaker 1: can't Brandon, Dante t Evencenzo's out.

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Speaker 2: I know, yeah, you can't, Like you.

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Speaker 1: Can't be like something's wrong with your roster construction when

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Speaker 1: like literally the guy that would be taking these minutes

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Speaker 1: is not available.

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Speaker 2: Well yes, well that the point is not that that

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Speaker 2: Dante is hurt and it's not fair. The point is

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Speaker 2: that they went all in on Drew Holiday. They traded

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Speaker 2: all their depths and all their picks knowing that they're

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Speaker 2: going to have only their lineup to rely on. So

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Speaker 2: it's game two of the finals. Only rely on your lineup.

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Speaker 2: Like Drew Holliday is a warrior. That dude can play

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Speaker 2: a lot of minutes. And I know that he's struggling,

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Speaker 2: I know he's not hitting shots. I still want him

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Speaker 2: out there given any of my other options, like play

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Speaker 2: him forty eight, play him all the minutes.

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Speaker 1: Tig was a minus three and twelve minutes. He's been fine,

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Speaker 1: Like he's been fine. He had like one gaff and

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Speaker 1: other than that in general, he's been fine. Like you're

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Speaker 1: surviving those minutes. I think this is a bad series

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Speaker 1: for Forbes. Like I mean, I said I.

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Speaker 4: Said this before that the series, and you told me

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Speaker 4: I was You told me I was crazy victory laugh.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't mean a victory life, but it's

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Speaker 3: just like it was so obvious.

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Speaker 1: Well no, no, because like I think my thing is

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Speaker 1: that you can you can probably get away with minutes.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the problems here's honestly, one of

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Speaker 1: the big things is this is the Suns are so

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Speaker 1: good at staggering Booker and Paul, so you can't find

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Speaker 1: minutes to play guys that can be on the court

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Speaker 1: when Paul like you, Forbes and Portis are two guys

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Speaker 1: that can be on the court I think when Chris

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Speaker 1: Paul's not. Yeah, but they stagger them so much. It's

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Speaker 1: either Booker hunting Forbes and Portis or CP three hunting

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Speaker 1: hunting Forbes. Importis just like picking on him over and

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Speaker 1: over and over again. But it's also just like, look,

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Speaker 1: it's very impressive that the Suns don't have any sort

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Speaker 1: of defensive Like they have no liabilities on either end.

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Speaker 1: There's not a defensive week point. You can't hunt anybody,

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Speaker 1: Like who should the Bucks be hunting Chris Paul, I'm asking,

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Speaker 1: is there a guy on the Sons that they.

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Speaker 3: Should be the only that's the only guy? So like

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Speaker 3: half wings and they make it macal Bridges, Jake Crowd,

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Speaker 3: you can't hunt them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, dam Johnson is all of a sudden, Klay

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Speaker 1: Thompson two point oh, like this is.

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Speaker 2: The thing Thompson's now, it's not there.

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Speaker 1: There's to Klay Thompson's like, there's there's no liabilities which

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Speaker 1: is a credit to the Sun's roster construction. I totally agree.

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Speaker 1: I also think that that's very rare, right, Like we

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Speaker 1: agree that there's usually weak points on each team, whether

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Speaker 1: it mean this is.

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Speaker 3: This is pretty much. I mean, you have to go

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Speaker 3: back to the Warriors.

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Speaker 1: Now, because even then it was Steph. They would just

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Speaker 1: hunt Steph.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know what, I think the Toronto Raptors,

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Speaker 4: they didn't have anybody.

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Speaker 1: I agree, that's a good point. Two teams that are

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Speaker 1: going to beat the Bucks without life the series.

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Speaker 2: That the thing for me, it didn't make a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense because this doesn't seem like the thing you

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Speaker 2: should you should really lean on when you're picking an

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Speaker 2: NBA Finals. But the thing I kept coming back to

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Speaker 2: as I as I consider all the angles and thought

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Speaker 2: about things, I just really liked the Sun's three through

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Speaker 2: eight guys way more than Milwaukee's three through eight guys.

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Speaker 1: But that should never that Brandon, it never.

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Speaker 2: It shouldn't matter, right.

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Speaker 1: Should That's antithetical to everything in NBA history.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely it is.

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Speaker 1: Why does it matter now?

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but it like that clearly has the

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Speaker 2: last two games. I will say this though Daris A.

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Speaker 2: Rich is out Tory Craig's injury. We don't know, but

433
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 2: it didn't look great that the and those are the

434
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 2: back end of that three through eight guys. It does

435
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 2: feel like Phoenix is like one more injury away from

436
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 2: really being short on the rotation right now. Like I

437
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 2: don't know that they're gonna super miss Sarich and Craig,

438
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 2: but those are the guys that fill in if somebody

439
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 2: else misses or gets them file trouble or it gets

440
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 2: hurt or something like. We're not there yet, but there

441
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 2: is to me, if you're looking for hope as a

442
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: Bucks fan, I think there are breadcrumbs of Phoenix has

443
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 2: been the healthy team and they're starting to just at

444
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: the back end of that rotation pick up a few

445
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 2: little injuries. They're one more away, and with guys who

446
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 2: are still playing through some injuries from that maybe being

447
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 2: a problem.

448
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 1: These numbers are wild, so points in the paint fifty

449
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 1: four to twenty eight, second chance points, twenty three to nineteen,

450
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: fast break points seventeen to seven that you know, just

451
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: seven fast break points. Yeah, I'll say this like the

452
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: Bucks shouldn't allow forty three point attempts even though like

453
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: Bookers in the second half were mostly like those are

454
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: just some that you have to like he shot twelve

455
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: of them for the most part, like you just got

456
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 1: like Devin's an amazing player. You get a live with it,

457
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: like there's nothing to be done. The corner threes were

458
00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 1: in part a byproduct of they overhelped on drives. You

459
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 1: just got to stay home and live with it. Like

460
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: if they make contested stuff, you make they make contested stuff,

461
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: don't help because they will immediately kick to those corners.

462
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 1: But then, like I said, a lot of it was

463
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: like there was broken that that sequence at the end

464
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: of the first half where they the Suns passed the

465
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 1: ball like eight times and it was so amazing. The

466
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: Bucks still got a deflection and most of the time

467
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: that's a loose ball. Drew Holliday's going the other way

468
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: for a layup, but it bounces right back the crowder

469
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,719
Speaker 1: who wants up finding another three? Like that was the

470
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: kind of night that it was. If you're if you're wondering,

471
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: like am I saying that it was luck? It's not luck,

472
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: It's more just a matter of I feel like the

473
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: Bucks probably take this series longer than they will now.

474
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 1: Like now I think you're minus Did you bet minus

475
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: two and a half, Brandon or what was What was

476
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: the bet that you actually took.

477
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: On the I bet minus one and a half. I

478
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: talked about the minus two and a half, but decided

479
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: that the one and a half was better.

480
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: So I think your one and a half is good.

481
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel good about that right now.

482
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: I think you're one now. I think that's already like

483
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: Golden I think I think, honestly two and a half

484
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: is probably solid at this point too.

485
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. So that's that's Suns and five and right now

486
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 2: at bet mgm ar official odds sponsor, it's over under

487
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: five and a half games is exact dead even odds,

488
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 2: So it's basically fifty to fifty to whether the Suns

489
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: would close it out in five or go to six.

490
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: Here's what's really annoying about this game. It's not so

491
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 1: much that lost. It's not so much that I lost

492
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: a lot of money, which I did, if that and

493
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 1: that broke my streak because I was red hot, and

494
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,479
Speaker 1: that if the Bucks had won, I would have hit

495
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: fourteen to one on Yiannis to score first basket and

496
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: win the game, which I bet on heat check, and

497
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: I actually did actually bet that, and I did. I

498
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: will say this hedged, so I'm fine. That took some

499
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 1: of the sting off for the night. Once Jannis made

500
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: the bucket I hedged. The annoying thing is that I

501
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: don't feel like I can bet Game three now because

502
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 1: I had decided before this game right he I was like,

503
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: win or lose. I think I'm taking Millwalke in game three.

504
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: I was like, even if I'm wrong and the Bucks

505
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 1: lose this game, they'll hit shots at home, the role

506
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: players will shoot better. I like the Bucks to win

507
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: Game three, and now I feel like I can't take

508
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: it because the Bucks can play great, and then the

509
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 1: McHale Bridges will just hit falling out of bounds three

510
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: pointers all night and I will just like I feel

511
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 1: like with this Bucks team in particular, I just can't.

512
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: I cannot trust averages to normalize within a reasonable range.

513
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: I'm not, again not asking for like everything to be

514
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 1: perfectly in line. I'm just asking for them not to

515
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: be extreme outliers on both ends. I don't feel like

516
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: I can trust that not to happen to the Bucks.

517
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: A my wrong, I agree with you.

518
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 3: I mean to me, that's why.

519
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 4: That's why I asked that question earlier on in the

520
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 4: podcast about you know, at some point do who we

521
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 4: accept who this team is? And I think I wonder

522
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 4: how much of that has to do with the fact

523
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 4: that they had to play some long series.

524
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: You know, these guys aren't fresh.

525
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's a product of shooting variance,

526
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 4: but they did have to play seven games with the nets.

527
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 4: They did find themselves in a dog fight against the Hawks.

528
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: You know, at some point this is not a very

529
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 4: deep team. Like I mentioned it early on heat Check,

530
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: but Drew Holliday has been playing forty minutes a game

531
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 4: for the last none ten games.

532
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: You know, at what point are you just tired?

533
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 4: So it's just when I look at this series, I

534
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 4: just kind of mean, until those two injuries with Dario

535
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 4: Sarik and Tory Craig, I'm starting to feel like the

536
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 4: Sons and four guys just is gonna be prophetic. Like

537
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: that's kind of how it feels, like, how this is

538
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 4: things we do.

539
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: At this point. Just just any one win for the Box,

540
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 2: just to shut the Suns and four guy up, just

541
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: just to get him out of here is the outcome

542
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 2: that we deserve at the very least that Your point

543
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: about minutes, though, Raheem, is good because when I made

544
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: the point earlier about the extra three minutes for for Booker,

545
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 2: for Chris Paul, the Suns won those three minutes. They

546
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: won those minutes against the Clippers, and they won those

547
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: minutes against the Nuggets, like by by closing out and

548
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: taking care of business. They got those three minutes extra tonight,

549
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 2: and that's like they're cashing in those extra chips that

550
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 2: they had saved up now. So it's it's a very

551
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 2: good point about just the attrition building out.

552
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: You want, I can't want to try about this. I

553
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: want to push back a little bit on the bud

554
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: criticism that you leveled it earlier, Brennan. I need a

555
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: lot to criticize the Bud for through the years. This

556
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: year he's done with mostly everybody's asked for, Like why

557
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: don't you play, why don't you switch more? Okay? He

558
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: did that. Why don't you very diplomore, he's done that.

559
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: When you play five more? Okay? He did that. Like

560
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 1: he's done a lot of that. If Drew Holiday says like, no,

561
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: I want to go back in, he's going back in,

562
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: Like I would tell you that If Drew Holliday is

563
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: not playing more minutes, that's likely because of where Drew's

564
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: exhaustion level is at, Like that's probably based off a

565
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: feedback from Chris and Drew rather than Bud just managing

566
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 1: the rotations. Like I don't, I don't think that that's

567
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: just like a oh, I got to save him and

568
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: keep him fresh. I just don't, like I think at

569
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: this point, like it really is like these guys have

570
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: a say in these decisions, Like he doesn't have other options.

571
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: He knows he can't play Forbes. He's playing he's played

572
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: in very few minutes, Like he's playing Team more because

573
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: he knows he can't play Forbes. So like that's that's

574
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: kind of my thing, is like I don't necessarily think

575
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: that that Budenholzer is one hundred. Like these decisions are

576
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: often more player influence than coach influence? Is my point here?

577
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: Does that make sense?

578
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it definitely makes sense. Just like I am looking

579
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: back at Holidays minutes from from recent games for forty two,

580
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: forty three, forty eight, forty two, forty two, forty two,

581
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: So so is the answer. Okay, he just got tired

582
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 2: out from all of those and he didn't. He didn't

583
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: have a forty two in him. That's what we're saying now,

584
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 2: because that's fine. If that's the answer.

585
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: I'm asking this is like, do you think that So

586
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: you think it's not that Bud never plays in forty two.

587
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 1: He's clearly willing to play in forty two, forty four

588
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 1: to forty five and then doesn't.

589
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I'm just saying tonight it felt

590
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: like a mistake. Well, I won't even say it felt

591
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: like a mistake. I feel like I felt like Bud

592
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: coached a great game tonight. I said that they made

593
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 2: all the adjustments in the first half, they made the

594
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 2: defensive adjustments. I thought they did a lot of good things.

595
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 2: I don't even know if Bud made a mistake as

596
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 2: much as Monty made a really good coaching move to say, okay,

597
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: my guys are going and and I never even felt

598
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: the forty four minutes from Booker until I saw it

599
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 2: at the end, Like I didn't feel like, oh Man,

600
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 2: Booker and CP they got nothing left, like they're they're

601
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: barely holding on here. They didn't look that tired. They

602
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: didn't look like forty four minutes. So I don't know

603
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: like maybe it's not eve in a Bud criticism as

604
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: much as just tip your cap to to Monty and

605
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: to the Suns for being able to play those extra

606
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 2: few minutes, because like three minutes doesn't sound like much,

607
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 2: but it's forty eight minute game. That's one sixteenth of

608
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: the game. Like that that matters in a game where

609
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: we keep saying a one or two shots might have

610
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 2: swung things.

611
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I have a.

612
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 4: Real problem with criticizing Bud for tonight when you have

613
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: Chris Middleton and Drew Holliday or we're just they just

614
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 4: didn't play.

615
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 3: Like I just think it's something we're always looking for.

616
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 4: Reasons why, well a team didn't win, And to me,

617
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 4: it was just glterally obvious that Drew Halliday he played

618
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: well on defense, he was he.

619
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: Was active, he was amazing on defense.

620
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's just like on offense, he actively hurt

621
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 4: his team. And if he's one of your big three,

622
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 4: you need him to score. You need Chris Middleton to

623
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 4: put up more than eleven points, like and I just

624
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 4: think that's the reason they lost the game. You know,

625
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 4: like I can't put anything on but like Bud wasn't

626
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 4: out there you know, brick and jump shots, going one

627
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 4: for six from three.

628
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday was five of twelve at the rim.

629
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah to me man as we talk about

630
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: shot variants with Holiday and with Middleton, you know, shot

631
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 2: variance is three pointers. More so like shot variance is okay,

632
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: we we we took some open threes, we missed them.

633
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: Those two were ten of twenty eight on two pointers,

634
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: thirty six percent on two pointers. And I realized, like

635
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: some of those are are contested pull ups that Middleton

636
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: is taking. You can't shoot ten of twenty eight on

637
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: twos at this level and like pull off a win.

638
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: It's just not good enough. Like that's you can't blame

639
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: that on shot variants either. You're just missing shots. You've

640
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: got to make at some point some of those.

641
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, But like this is where I always struggle with it,

642
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 1: is like this is why shooting bothers me, which is

643
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: great that I'm an NBA analyst. It's like you got it.

644
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: I asked this. I asked on Twitter every time somebody

645
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: says that, like we gotta make this sh shots, how

646
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: like how what these are NBA players? You know how

647
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: many shots they take every single day of their lives.

648
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: Do you know how many shots they've taken in their lives?

649
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: And it's like, wait, try harder to make the ball

650
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: go in the basket. Like you go through, you, you play,

651
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: you get to the move, you rise up, you release

652
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: the ball. It goes in or it doesn't like it.

653
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: And at some level, even if again this is why

654
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: the quantified shot quality matters, the Bucks take lower percentage shots,

655
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: Like I am not contesting that fact, Like the Bucks

656
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: quality of shots is lower than the Suns because the

657
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 1: Sun's offense is better. However, even if they just shot

658
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: the expected rate on those bad shots, they still win

659
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, because Jannis is so amazing, because the

660
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: whole roster is built around that concept of Yannis is amazing.

661
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: That's how this roster was built, was Janis is. This

662
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: roster wasn't built around Chris Milton, Drew hollidayre gonna hit

663
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: mid range shots. It was we're gonna build it around

664
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: Yannis and those guys. And like, there's an argument that

665
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: they need more shooters, which I get the brim Forbes

666
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: is a shooter and he can't play. You gotta have

667
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: shooters that are also great defensively, which is why the

668
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 1: Sons are awesome because they have Michale Bridges.

669
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a problem. Watching the third quarter, Jannis

670
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: has like an all time great finals quarter. He scores

671
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 2: twenty points in the third quarter alone, lives at the

672
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: free throw line. Would be nice if you'd make a

673
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 2: few more free throws, but you know you can't have

674
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: everything twenty points in the quarter. The Bucks finally start

675
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 2: hitting threes. They made five threes in the quarter, and

676
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: the Sun's finally missed a few shots early in the quarter.

677
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: At least it's all happening, Giannis in the middle of

678
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: this incredible game. Get to the end of the third quarter.

679
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,719
Speaker 2: The Bucks have made up one point on the Phoenix Suns.

680
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: After all that, after finally hitting their shots, after Yanni's

681
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 2: putting up twenty in a quarter, Like, what's he gonna

682
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 2: do average twenty every quarter? We need to be honest

683
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: to put up eighty. Now for the Bucks to barely

684
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: eke out a one point win in every quarter to

685
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: win the game, it's it's just not enough.

686
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 1: Like so now I'm in this is where I'm trying

687
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: not to be like, I'm trying not to be overreactionary.

688
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: But now I'm like maybe I should just bet the

689
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: Suns every game because they're gonna win the series, and

690
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 1: we only got We've got I'm at most five games left,

691
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 1: and I do believe the Sons are gonna win because

692
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: they want to night, Like, should I just bet the

693
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: Suns every game?

694
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: So so let me make the case. I made this

695
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 2: case last series. It obviously didn't work. So right now,

696
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: Suns sweep is plus three fifty at bet MGM plus

697
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,760
Speaker 2: three fifty, So that's an implied twenty what's another.

698
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: Way to say that?

699
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 3: Brandon?

700
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: How else would you say.

701
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 2: Betting the Suns to win both games? But here's what

702
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: I'm telling you.

703
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: No, But but what else would you How else would

704
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: you describe Sons in a sweep? How what would that be?

705
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: Sons in like less than five is probably how I

706
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 2: call it. So as you're looking at game three, So

707
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: the Bucks right now open at three and a half

708
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: point favorites. The Suns are plus one thirty five to

709
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 2: the money line. So one thirty five money line implies

710
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: just under forty three percent chance of the Sun's winning.

711
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 2: So basically we're saying the Suns have slightly less than

712
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: a coin flip chance of winning game three. I think

713
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 2: that's probably about how we feel, like, Okay, the Bucks

714
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 2: are at home, it's the season on the line. The

715
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 2: Suns are clearly the better team. But all right, yeah,

716
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 2: the Suns are clearly the better team, but on the road,

717
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 2: but they're gonna be live. So last series against the Clippers,

718
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 2: I made the argument that if the Suns went up

719
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 2: three to zero, the Clippers just were shot, they were done,

720
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: Kawhi was out, This team wouldn't have fight left in it.

721
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: Clearly proven wrong. Terrible, terrible argument by me. The Clippers

722
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: were crazy, resilient and put up a great fight. It

723
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 2: didn't work. So I'm asking the same question about the Bucks.

724
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 2: If the Suns do get Game three on the road

725
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 2: and they go up three to oh, because here's the numbers.

726
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 2: At those percentages I told you at implied forty three

727
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 2: percent to win. In order to get to that twenty

728
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: two percent sweep, all they have to win Game four

729
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 2: is fifty two percent of the time. If the Suns

730
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 2: win Game three and go up three, oh, aren't they

731
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 2: way more than a coin flip to win Game four

732
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 2: and finish this off? Because I don't know that the

733
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: Bucks had that same fight in them. That the Clipper

734
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: is dead. What do you guys think about that?

735
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 1: This is ironic? I think you're too subject to variants.

736
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: The right.

737
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 1: I mean it like Game five of Suns Clippers is

738
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: what is why I hesitate?

739
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 2: Yeah right, that was a tough one.

740
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that that's why, Like that was primed for them

741
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: and they dropped it. Now I bet the Clippers in

742
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: that game, but they dropped it. So I think that

743
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: you're just this is kind of thing, is like it's

744
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: just there's too much risk of but just a team

745
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: getting a game. Yeah, So I think instead I'm just

746
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: gonna like I'm already pretty good, like I've managed to

747
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: I've talked about this before, like my future positions are

748
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: pretty even though they're gonna be worse if the Sons

749
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 1: do this in less than six So so I think

750
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: as a hedge against the hedge, and based off of

751
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: the current information, I'm just gonna bet the Sun's money

752
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: line in three and four and go that route and

753
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: that way. If I'm wrong, I've still got my son's

754
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: in sixth position to help out with that, and if

755
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 1: I'm right, that'll off set my loss. There.

756
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 3: See that's what I take.

757
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 2: Okay, let me I got a question, go ahead.

758
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 3: Nothing because I was gonna say, right, how much do

759
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 3: the losses of Dario sarag and Tory Craig impact your confidence?

760
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 2: I think not enough yet to really matter. It's I

761
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 2: mean they do, they do a little bit. These are

762
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: good players, they've been playing well. It's it's not that

763
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 2: those two losses matter yet. It's that they're they're the

764
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 2: beginning dominoes of a week from now. And we look

765
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: back and we're like, man, I really didn't think that

766
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: much about Sarage being out and then Tory Craig being out,

767
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 2: But now that Cam Johnson sprain his ankle, and now

768
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 2: that you know, like once we added the extra next

769
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 2: step or two, it's it's the dominoes are starting to

770
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 2: line up. Like this is my thing. I always try

771
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: to think contrarian to myself and think, Okay, what am

772
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 2: I not seeing? What's the other story that we might

773
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 2: be telling a week from now? And to me, those

774
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 2: injuries could be the start of the other story. Now

775
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 2: we get to Game three and you know, somebody, I mean,

776
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 2: it's Chris Paul. We don't want it to happen, but

777
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 2: it's Chris Paul. So whoever is They're the beginning of

778
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: a story that could happen. So let me ask you, guys,

779
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 2: as a thought experiment, going the other way, because right now,

780
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 2: right now, the problem, more than anything else is math.

781
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 2: The Suns are up to zero. The Suns have to

782
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: lose four to five. They have done that once all season.

783
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 2: It happened back in January when they started out eight

784
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 2: to eight. That's the only way they lose a title

785
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: now is either to lose four in a row or

786
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 2: lose four to five. That's it. That's math. So thought experiment,

787
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:40,800
Speaker 2: try to imagine that Game one never happened, the finals

788
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 2: never moved up. Tonight was game one. We only have

789
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 2: tonight to go off of. Would you feel kind of

790
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 2: pretty okay about the Bucks going forward only based off

791
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: of tonight's game? And if that's the case, should we

792
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 2: think of the Bucks as more live than we are?

793
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: Yeah? It's a really good.

794
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 4: I mean I think the lines, I mean, the odds

795
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,439
Speaker 4: makers put in that line at three and a half.

796
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 3: Kind of says a lot.

797
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 2: What does that say to you?

798
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 3: To me, it says that the Bucks should win this game,

799
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: I mean game three.

800
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 4: I mean, we've seen the Bucks respond down two to

801
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: the nets and they look like they were dead. We've

802
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 4: seen we've just seen the Bucks respond to losses at home.

803
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 4: I mean, you look at Game two against Atlanta, even

804
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 4: Game one against the Heat. They still won that game,

805
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 4: but we saw them at home the following day game

806
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: and they're a different team.

807
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 3: So you know, this is what you got, almost eight

808
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 3: and a half point swing.

809
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 4: From game two to Game three, just based on the

810
00:40:56,760 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 4: venue teams.

811
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 2: So play my contrarian game and without telling me the

812
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 2: words Chris Paul got hurt or Devin Booker got hurt,

813
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: we hope to god nobody else gets hurt in the series.

814
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 2: Everybody mostly stays healthy and the Bucks win the championship.

815
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 2: Tell me, why, paint me the picture? What happened two

816
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: weeks from now when we're back here on the podcast

817
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 2: being like, I can't believe it. The Bucks turned it around.

818
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: They won it in six, They won in seven, and

819
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: it's not because some cast arby injury. Why what happened?

820
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 2: What's the story that we're telling two weeks from now

821
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 2: about the Bucks?

822
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: They win both in Milwaukee because they win one game

823
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 1: with shooting variants going their way, which has happened from

824
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: time to time, doesn't feel like it, but it has.

825
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 1: I had to look it up, but I confirmed it has.

826
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 1: They win game four in a slugfest. It's ugly, it's nasty.

827
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: Everyone thinks that they're done because it's like the Sun

828
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: shot horribly and the Bucks barely still won that game.

829
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 1: They win that win in game four. They lose Game

830
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 1: five in Phoenix. It's a route. They come back and

831
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 1: they win game six comfortably because the Sons are getting tired.

832
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: If you win two games in a row, like this

833
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 1: is how it goes. You say, like, can the Bucks can?

834
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: Like are the Suns gonna lose four out of five?

835
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: And they go no. But the Bucks win two games

836
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: and you tell me the Sun's got to lose two

837
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 1: of three. That gets different because if they can, if

838
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: they get it to seven, Yeah, it's about who makes shots.

839
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 2: It's about Chris Paul in a game seven with everything

840
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 2: on the line. Yeah.

841
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: So look, I think I think right now all the

842
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: value is going on Sun series price Sons minus one

843
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: and a half is too steep. Now two I think

844
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: based off of just like I think so, I don't

845
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 1: think you should be betting minus one and a half

846
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: at minus two fifty when they're Dogs in game three, right, yeah, I.

847
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 3: Think, I mean, I think at that point you're better

848
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 3: off just taking game three or game four and picking bet.

849
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you like the Suns, just bet, just bet

850
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: the games, because if you go minus two and a half,

851
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 1: I feel like that gives you a little bit ellyway

852
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 1: that's minus one ten. But again, if you're going that route,

853
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 1: just bet you got one thirty five on the money line.

854
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 1: And this is life that you go in the bucks favor.

855
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: I think probably the money comes in on the bucks.

856
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 1: I thought I thought the money would come in on

857
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 1: the bucks in this game, and it did, so I

858
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: think you just if you're if you're a Sun's better

859
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: you just bet that. And I just I think I

860
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 1: can't look at this. And even at three seventy five, Brandon,

861
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: you have the implied on three seventy.

862
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 2: Five minus three seventy five plus.

863
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: Three seventy five for bucks series price.

864
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 2: Oh, I got you, it's seventy nine percent. Wait no, that's.

865
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 1: So the question is like, do I think the Suns

866
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: win this series more than two out of ten times?

867
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: And the answer is.

868
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 2: No, No. So yeah, I did the math on it

869
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 2: before I saw the odds up, and I my math

870
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: gives the Bucks something around like a sixteen percent chance,

871
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: which would be about plus five hundred. So I think

872
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: that's a fair number. But three seventy five is a

873
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: hard pass for me.

874
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 1: Now, look, plus two and a half is minus one ten.

875
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: If you watch game two and you just go like,

876
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 1: Bucks got no breaks, they got no bounces, they got

877
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: a bad shooting game on their side, a great shooting

878
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 1: game on the other. They made the tactical adjustments. Sarich

879
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: is hurt, Craig is hurt, They're gonna have to play Kaminski.

880
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: They're going to Milwaukee. I think they can win the

881
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: next two, right, which the Bucks have been down o

882
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 1: two in these playoffs, and they did fight back versus

883
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 1: the NETS team without two of the three best players

884
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: on the team, but still they did that. Right, So, like,

885
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: Bucks plus two and a half minus one ten, I

886
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: don't think has terrible value. If you're going Bucks like

887
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 1: that to me is the only thing you can bet

888
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: is you're just just two people.

889
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,720
Speaker 3: Well, and also, I mean I think if you're going Bucks,

890
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 3: I think you just hammer Game three. That's the spot.

891
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're you're laying You're laying three, You're laying

892
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: three and a half? Can you roll it over? Can

893
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 1: you roll it over and make more?

894
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 3: Let me see, because I'm assuming that.

895
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 4: Maybe Game four might be might come in a little

896
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 4: bit lower because I think the market.

897
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 3: Is going to keep the Bucks three and a half

898
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: or higher game three, but.

899
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 4: Game four people are going to look at that like

900
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: almost like this is the spot that the Suns they

901
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 4: have to get, so you're going to have some resistance.

902
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: Bit like I was planning on betting Bucks tonight Bucks

903
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: in game three, Sons in Game four. That was like

904
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: where I was at going with the flow of the series,

905
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 1: based off adjustments and whatnot. Like I don't, I didn't.

906
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: I didn't think that either team would be able to

907
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 1: hold home court, and the Suns did because they're awesome.

908
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 1: I don't. I want to make this very clear, Like

909
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: the Suns are incredible. Like I could gush to you

910
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: guys for an hour about Michale Bridges and like his

911
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: movements and like how good he is on both sides,

912
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: and Aiden's like rim defense, which is part of the

913
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: reason Drew Holiday in this layups but really not all

914
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 1: of it, but some of it, or about the rebounding factor,

915
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: how hard they play and like their ability to find

916
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 1: and hit big shots and what Crowder gave them like

917
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 1: n CP three and Devin Booker was amazing. Like there's

918
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 1: all this stuff I could talk about. This is just

919
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 1: really good. But if we're trying to find value, I

920
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 1: think really it's probably just at this point, the Bucks

921
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 1: had it, Like the Bucks should have won Game two.

922
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: This is like Suns Clippers.

923
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. I was just gonna say the valueop all

924
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 2: over again. We kept saying that the Clippers should have

925
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 2: won Game two, but they didn't, and that's all that

926
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 2: matters because it's two to zero now and they gotta

927
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 2: beat them.

928
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 4: At Yeah, do you feel like do you feel like

929
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 4: the Suns have played their best game? That they could

930
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 4: have the best games that they could have possibly played,

931
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 4: Because I think one of the things I like to

932
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 4: look at is what is the range of outcomes for

933
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 4: these specific teams.

934
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: We know that the Bucks haven't played their best game.

935
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:55,720
Speaker 4: They're struggling to shoot, Chris Middleton is struggling, Drew Holliday

936
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:56,320
Speaker 4: is struggling.

937
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: Had the Sun played their best game? Like is this

938
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 3: their A game? Is this their B game?

939
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 1: Like?

940
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 3: What's the range out from.

941
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 1: It?

942
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 2: To me? This feels like like there a minus B

943
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 2: plus type game. This is I don't think this is

944
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 2: quite their best game.

945
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: This is the This gets back to what we're talking

946
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: about the beginning, right where on an execution level, Rahim,

947
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: I think this is honestly a C. Mm hmm, Like, yeah, Defensively,

948
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 1: they were really good. I don't want to take away

949
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: from them. Defensively, Offensively, I don't feel like they created

950
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 1: like I just felt like things went their way and

951
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: they played behind the momentum of the crowd, and that

952
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: converted this from like a C game into like a

953
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 1: B plus a minus And then like the Bucks just

954
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 1: played like in execution they played like honestly an A. Defensively,

955
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 1: offensively I give them like a C. And then offensively

956
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 1: they played like they shot like an F and the

957
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: Sun shot like an A. So that's like the variance.

958
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 1: There's like there's execution in their shooting, and so I

959
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,919
Speaker 1: think the Suns can play better than this they did

960
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: in game two. I think one of the things was

961
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: that in terms of what I expected, I did expect

962
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: the Suns, like the Bucks to basically be like we're

963
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 1: gonna make Devin Booker score like forty on his own right,

964
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 1: and if you look at the numbers, Booker stepped up

965
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 1: and did what he can do because he's an absolutely

966
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: incredible player. Thirty one points, five rebounds, six assists is good,

967
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 1: but it's not like it's not a double double. It's

968
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: not a triple double, right, So like that's part of

969
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 1: the equation, I think as well. And then this is

970
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: what I thought was really notable. So first half Booker

971
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: was four of twelve for ten points. Yeah, they played big,

972
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: and they had PJ. Tucker on him, and Tucker did great.

973
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 1: And in the second half they were mixing and matching

974
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: minutes because they were going small and they took Brook off,

975
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 1: which meant Tucker was playing different minutes, which means that

976
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 1: Tucker wasn't on him as much. When Tucker defended Booker,

977
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: I thought I did a great job. He was bumping him,

978
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 1: he was shoving him, he was gettinghim off kilter. He

979
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 1: did an absolutely terrific job.

980
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, that's the thing that's scary is

981
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 2: that you're right. You're absolutely right. And like Booker was

982
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 2: the star tonight with thirty one, but it was a half.

983
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 2: It was a half of a star performance from Booker

984
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 2: and in game one, Chris Paul was the star and

985
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 2: had the big game. But if you remember, Chris Paul

986
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 2: was like halfway through the second quarter, had two points,

987
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: and then he drew some free throws on tegue, made

988
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 2: a couple easy ones, made his elbow shot the next

989
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 2: time down, and suddenly got going pup sixteen in the

990
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 2: third quarter. Again, I think, and so, yeah, it's not

991
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: the a game, it's it's they've only had one half

992
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: of a really star performance in each game from these two,

993
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 2: and I think that's that's the scary thing. Still, if

994
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 2: you're trying to find some light for the Bucks here,

995
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:09,479
Speaker 2: to go back to the Bucks a question on what's

996
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 2: the value there? So I think we agree at plus

997
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 2: three seventy five for this series. I don't think that

998
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 2: there's value there. There's not value there. Don't play that. However,

999
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 2: if the Bucks win the championship at this point, based

1000
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 2: on anything we've seen, is there any scenario that Yannis

1001
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 2: is not the finals MVP. He has to be the

1002
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 2: finals MVP if the Bucks win. If he gets hurt again,

1003
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 2: the Bucks aren't winning, and Chris and Drew have not

1004
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: been good, Giannis is plus five hundred to win. Finals MVP.

1005
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,880
Speaker 2: So if you want to trust in the Bucks, if

1006
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 2: you think they can win, that's the play, not the

1007
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 2: Bucks series, because to me, those are the same play.

1008
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 1: If that's your angle, you have to wait till the

1009
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: Suns win another game because you think you know the

1010
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 1: Suns are winning another game. Like, do we agree that

1011
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 1: the Suns are not lose four straight?

1012
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 3: Not at all.

1013
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 2: It's in my notes to talk about whether they could.

1014
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 2: It's only one one home loss, just saying we've been

1015
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:14,280
Speaker 2: here before. If things get moving and we've been here, Christ.

1016
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: We haven't.

1017
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 3: We haven't been anywhere.

1018
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 4: We haven't been in a world where the Bucks would

1019
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 4: come back and win fourth straight.

1020
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 1: That's true. Yeah, Yeah, the Bucks are not all of

1021
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: a sudden gonna have amazing offense and great shooters and

1022
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 1: look entirely different. They're gonna have to stumble their way

1023
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 1: to an NBA title the way that they have stumbled

1024
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 1: their way to the finals.

1025
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 2: I'm just saying Bucks and six is plus twelve hundred.

1026
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 2: I had it in my notes as a hmmm. Makes

1027
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:45,439
Speaker 2: me pomps them, thinking no, no, oh my god, look

1028
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 2: look it's it's look the scenario that you said, Matt,

1029
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 2: it's the one where okay, games three and four, the

1030
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,879
Speaker 2: Bucks eke out one of them some ugly rock fight win.

1031
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 2: Another one is the three point game and the and

1032
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 2: they hit the brage and they get a big one.

1033
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: And now it's too too Now the only thing that

1034
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: has to switch is game five. Now you go back

1035
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 2: to game five and somehow you pull off the one win.

1036
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 2: That's many cents. How do the Clippers pull off game five?

1037
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:13,760
Speaker 2: How does sports happen? Things happen. This happens if the Bucks.

1038
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: If the Bucks were to win three straight, if they

1039
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 1: were to go out three to two by winning on

1040
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: the road in game five, I will garn goddamn to you,

1041
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: they absolutely face plant, just put themselves in the dirt

1042
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: at home.

1043
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 2: Like, man, if I actually bet the twelve hundred and

1044
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 2: then the Bucks won the next three and then actually

1045
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:36,400
Speaker 2: face planted, which is completely reasonable, I would be so

1046
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 2: mad about that, Like, oh my god.

1047
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 1: That's absolutely what Like I'm warning you off of this now.

1048
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 1: Like think about Game four versus the Hawks with no

1049
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:44,399
Speaker 1: Trey Young.

1050
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I'm not saying I'm taking it. I'm just

1051
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 2: saying it. I would rather I would rather take the

1052
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 2: plus twelve hundred to win in six than the three

1053
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 2: seventy five. If I'm playing the Bucks, there's no way

1054
00:53:57,719 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 2: I'm touching the three seventy five. If I'm trying to

1055
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: find the angle to play the Bucks, like, I'm already

1056
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: taking so much risk on that, I want to take

1057
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 2: the bigger risk for the bigger payout. So okay, so

1058
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: back to let's.

1059
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: Go in the middle. Let's go in the middle though,

1060
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: between the three seventy five and the plus twelve hundred.

1061
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 2: I don't play in the middle. Have you met me?

1062
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: Why would I pay?

1063
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: But listen? But listen in the in the middle is

1064
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:21,960
Speaker 1: Bucks four to three at plus eight hundred.

1065
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's that's that's your other option. That's

1066
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 2: your if you're gonna bet. Look, if you're gonna bet

1067
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 2: the Bucks, I'm just say this. If you're gonna bet

1068
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 2: the Buck, if you're gonna bet the Bucks and you're

1069
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 2: getting twelve to one, bet the twelve to one and

1070
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: the eight to one and take as I say, why

1071
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 2: why would you not bet both of those and play.

1072
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: With If you if you're at the Bucks, that's all

1073
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 1: you that's all you should do.

1074
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 2: Giving money.

1075
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I don't, But I wouldn't. I just I

1076
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 1: don't think so. I will say this game back to

1077
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 1: the original point, I do think that if you want to, like,

1078
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:54,239
Speaker 1: if you're looking for an angle, the other one is

1079
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 1: to wait until the Suns win one more game. If

1080
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:57,839
Speaker 1: you're just like no, I think the Bucks are still

1081
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 1: gonna win the series. I don't know why you would,

1082
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,480
Speaker 1: but if you we're in that spot, Joannis will be

1083
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 1: a very long dog to win MVP at that point,

1084
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: and that's the play.

1085
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 2: So okay, Finals MVP. I think that so Chris Paul

1086
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 2: has to be the favorite. I mean, Chris Paul is

1087
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 2: the betting favorite right now. He's clearly less of a

1088
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 2: favorite after tonight than he was coming into the night.

1089
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: So how do we handicap the finals MVP race right now? Because,

1090
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: like you know, Paul or Booker, it's got to be

1091
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: one of the two, assuming that the Suns win. Is

1092
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 2: there any scenario for somebody else at this point? It

1093
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 2: seems like no, because we focus on the wins and

1094
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 2: none of the other guys have been good enough in

1095
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 2: both games. McHale maybe, but I don't know what he

1096
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 2: would have to do to try to steal that. I mean,

1097
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 2: he had he had an incredible game tonight, and if

1098
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 2: he did that two more times in a sweep, he

1099
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 2: still wouldn't be the finals MVP. It still wouldn't matter.

1100
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, had he had twenty seven tonight, twenty seven point

1101
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 1: seven boards on eight to fifteen, shooting three nine for

1102
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: three and Booker had thirty one, right and Paul was

1103
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 1: four behind him with morrisis and half the boards on

1104
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 1: fifty percent, Like.

1105
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 2: No, yeah, okay, so it's not gonna be one of

1106
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: the other three through eight guys. It's almost certainly not

1107
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 2: going to be Yannis. We don't give the finals MVP

1108
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 2: to the losing player or Lebron would have like seventeen already. Right,

1109
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 2: what's the scenario for Devin Booker to take it away

1110
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:35,399
Speaker 2: from Chris Paul? Because I think it's because if there's

1111
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 2: Chris Paul to win finals MVP is I think minus

1112
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 2: one twenty right now. So if you still feel like

1113
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 2: it's the legacy thing, and when it comes down to it,

1114
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:47,240
Speaker 2: if it's close, which we think it's going to be close.

1115
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 2: If it's close, Chris Paul is winning it, don't we

1116
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 2: agree with that? If if if that's close between the voters,

1117
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 2: CP is winning it. And if that's the case, then

1118
00:56:56,680 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 2: can you kind of treat Chris Paul minus one twenty

1119
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 2: as a cheat to a Sun's series? Bet?

1120
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that his imply is fifty five.

1121
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, but the Sun's what's the Sun's series like

1122
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 2: minus five hundred right now?

1123
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, So I would say I think there's definitely

1124
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 1: value on Paul and minus one twenty. I got inn

1125
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 1: a plus four hundred, so I don't need to. But

1126
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 1: I think at minus victory lap but at minus one twenty,

1127
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: I mean I may bet more on it now, like

1128
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 1: that's an easy angle to it. I just feel like,

1129
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 1: here's the concern. Here's a concern on Paul. The bucks

1130
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 1: are gonna look at this tape tonight and they're gonna

1131
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 1: see the exact same stuff that we talked about in

1132
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: this podcast. They're gonna be like, we should have won

1133
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 1: this game, and it's gonna frustrate them. But the coaches

1134
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: are also going to go, we need to do this,

1135
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 1: like this is how we need to play them, and

1136
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 1: they're going to do more of limiting CP three, Like

1137
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 1: Holiday's not coming off of Paul. They're not gonna put

1138
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 1: They're not gonna put Holiday back on Booker. After the

1139
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 1: twenty seven, They're gonna look and be like, no, we

1140
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 1: need Tucker more on Booker, and we need Holidays still

1141
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: on Paul, which means that Booker is gonna have more

1142
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 1: opportunities to have big games because like Holiday was in

1143
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: his grill or HOLIDAYU, Tucker was in his grill on

1144
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 1: some of those, Booker just hit him because Books insane. Yeah,

1145
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 1: like he I mean, he's just insane player. He's just

1146
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 1: an incredible score, just amazing scorer. So Booker may wind

1147
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 1: up like he may have a forty point performance in

1148
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 1: game four, that like salts the series right, Like if

1149
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 1: we think that the Bucks might win Game three, which

1150
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: is what the market says, if the Suns win Game four,

1151
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 1: it's probably because Devin goes off, and that's where it

1152
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 1: gets dangerous. But like Paul was so incredible in game

1153
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 1: one and was equally good in game two. Like Paul again,

1154
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 1: like Tonight twenty three and eight, there's nothing to complain

1155
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 1: about the story Tonight is all the shooting and Michale

1156
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 1: going nuts and them shit hitting twenty three is like,

1157
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:08,919
Speaker 1: that's what the questions are about.

1158
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 2: He did have six turnovers. He did have a few

1159
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 2: sloppy turnovers. Tonight.

1160
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. Normally it would matter. It only matters

1161
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 1: in a close game. Like that's true, his turnovers only

1162
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: matter if they lose. Does it make sense?

1163
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:27,640
Speaker 2: Like if if those two shots swung, then everyone would

1164
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 2: be noticing those you know that like behind the back

1165
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 2: out of bounds, like the Steph Curry special. All right,

1166
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 2: then we'd be talking about it. But yeah, it doesn't

1167
00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 2: matter now. But it wasn't. It wasn't the best Chris

1168
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 2: Paul game, That's all I'm saying.

1169
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think I think the only way it

1170
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:48,080
Speaker 1: turns is that Booker has an absolutely Supernova game four

1171
00:59:50,520 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 1: and other than that, I think it's I think it's

1172
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 1: Chris Paul's is in the bag. I think it's just

1173
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: in the bag.

1174
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I feel like I feel like it

1175
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 2: almost has to be that Booker has at least one

1176
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 2: more Supernova game and the other game has to still

1177
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 2: be pretty good, like it still can be one of

1178
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 2: those like, oh, Booker only put up sixteen to that, huh.

1179
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 2: I guess he was just gonna off off his game,

1180
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 2: which he's been doing, like I noticed it and when

1181
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 2: I was doing props earlier today he's gone under twenty

1182
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 2: points once every five games or less in the playoffs,

1183
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 2: like each each five games he's gone and at least

1184
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 2: and under twenty points. It's not saying it's a bad

1185
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 2: game just for Booker's it's a bad game for Booker,

1186
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 2: Like Booker has to have not one of those games,

1187
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 2: like it's still a solid game and a great game.

1188
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 2: And I think Chris Paul has to kind of be

1189
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 2: actively not good, like worse than the six turnovers tonight.

1190
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 2: And if Chris Paul is not good enough to lose

1191
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 2: the Finals MVP, then I think the Suns are not

1192
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 2: good enough to finish the job off despite Booker's forty

1193
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 2: or whatever you put up, Like, I just feel like

1194
01:00:57,040 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 2: Chris Paul is so central to what they do that

1195
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 2: for him to blow the Finals MVP, given the built

1196
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 2: in advantages at this point, would have to almost me

1197
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 2: and the Sun's blowing enough games for the Bucks to

1198
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 2: be back in those two. I just I don't know

1199
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: how those two aren't hand in hand.

1200
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 3: Now, Yeah, I mean I think, I mean there's always the.

1201
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 4: What if we're because I think at some point we're

1202
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 4: gonna get a close game, We're gonna get a game

1203
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 4: where somebody has.

1204
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 3: To close it.

1205
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:28,840
Speaker 2: And yeah, and Booker.

1206
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 4: Either Devin Booker or Chris Paul is gonna have to

1207
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 4: close one of these games.

1208
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a good ard.

1209
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, you know, people look at the twenty

1210
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 4: sixteen finals, Lebron he cast a shadow over everything.

1211
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 3: So Kyrie never have had a shot.

1212
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 4: But in a series like this, a guy hitting the

1213
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 4: game winner or closing multiple possessions in a close game

1214
01:01:52,000 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 4: that could swing it.

1215
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 1: Might be, might be. I still think that Paul's got

1216
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 1: a prety sizeable lait, Like, I don't think that the

1217
01:01:57,080 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: market right now reflects the gap between the two.

1218
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Paul, well in agreement. I'm just kind of making

1219
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 3: an account of hard.

1220
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, Paul's minus one twenty books plus one eighty. I

1221
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 1: would put this closure to like Paul minus one fifty

1222
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 1: book two hundred.

1223
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say even I think some like

1224
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 2: minus two hundred.

1225
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 1: For now two hundred. I'm probably taking it because I'm

1226
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 1: getting Goo to one, right, that's probably I think that's

1227
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 1: better value. I think I'll tell you it hits there.

1228
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 1: I don't think I want to take it. We'll see

1229
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 1: what happens in game three, course final thing I've hit

1230
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 1: twice in the series on Michail Bridges over one and

1231
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 1: a half three pointers made. I don't know why to

1232
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 1: keep lining it that way. Are the Suns gonna shoot

1233
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 1: worse than Milwaukee? Like role players are not supposed to.

1234
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:38,120
Speaker 1: But Bridges just lights out right now.

1235
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 2: I mean, he's a good shooter and he's gonna get shots.

1236
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:45,920
Speaker 2: So two threes is not a big ask he's getting,

1237
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 2: he's getting the volume, and he's a good shooter. So

1238
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 2: Crowder's line is a three pointer or higher that two

1239
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 2: point five and Crowder's last streak year Mchal's gonna I

1240
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 2: think it's a good bat. I think I keep playing

1241
01:02:57,640 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 2: it until they adjust.

1242
01:02:59,440 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 3: Before we go.

1243
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:02,320
Speaker 4: Do we have a preliminary pick for Game three? We

1244
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 4: gotta give them something.

1245
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,840
Speaker 1: I think. I'm like, I'm gonna bet Son's money line

1246
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 1: just because I got a hedge against Sons and six

1247
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 1: and seven. Ah Okay, Like I just gotta go that

1248
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 1: route because I can't.

1249
01:03:13,560 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be good value on the on

1250
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 4: the Bucks first quarter. I think that's probably the way

1251
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 4: to go.

1252
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 2: I think for me, I'm still I'm still gonna be

1253
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 2: thinking a lot about that plus three fifty on the

1254
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 2: Sun Suite because I think I'm thinking about the Sun's

1255
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 2: money line anyway, and it's it's kind of like a

1256
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:34,840
Speaker 2: single game parlay, except it's it's a single series parlay.

1257
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 2: Like once you get that game three, I don't still

1258
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 2: believe in the Bucks to come come back in a

1259
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 2: game four. So I think I'm looking at that plus

1260
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 2: three fifty as my game three play potentially.

1261
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:48,920
Speaker 1: Totals two twenty two and a half. I think I'm

1262
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 1: probably gonna bet me under.

1263
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:51,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's creeping out.

1264
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 1: That's up from two. It's up two points from game two.

1265
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 2: And it was like two sixteen in game one, right.

1266
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think the thought process is Milwaukee's

1267
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 1: offense is not going to get better.

1268
01:04:06,080 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: But the Sons will finally miss a shot.

1269
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 1: But the Suns might miss it. I actually missed like

1270
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 1: a shot in Milwaukee, Like even if it's just Cam

1271
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:17,440
Speaker 1: Johnson cooling off or Crowder going back to not somewhere

1272
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 1: in between game one and game two, like somewhere in

1273
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 1: the middle. Just that differential, I think is enough for

1274
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 1: me to think that. The other thing I'll say is

1275
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 1: the Bucks really are walking it, Like I don't think

1276
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 1: the pace in this game, I don't think was crazy.

1277
01:04:30,560 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 1: I'd have to look at it. I hang on, I

1278
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:32,360
Speaker 1: got it right here.

1279
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:35,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. I felt like the pace was higher in game

1280
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 2: one because I remember the song pushing a lot.

1281
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:41,320
Speaker 1: Ninety eight possessions in game one, it's officially log on

1282
01:04:41,440 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 1: NBA dot Com at ninety five. So we went over

1283
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 1: with fewer possessions in game two. So that that to

1284
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,960
Speaker 1: me says like they're slowing down as this grinds out.

1285
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,360
Speaker 1: The Bucks also know they can't they can't get in

1286
01:04:55,400 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 1: and up and down with the Suns because the Suns

1287
01:04:57,600 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: will just whip the ball around and hit transition threes

1288
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 1: the Bucks want. What the Bucks want to do is

1289
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 1: get a stop, walk the ball up, grind you into oblivion,

1290
01:05:05,400 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: and then repeat. That's their formula right now for winning

1291
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 1: because they just don't have the shooters. So so I

1292
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:14,320
Speaker 1: think the under two twenty two and a half is

1293
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:16,200
Speaker 1: going to be the play. All right, That's going to

1294
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 1: do it. For the Action Network Podcast, Thanks for joining us, everybody,

1295
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 1: make sure to temper waitresses. Make sure to subscribe to

1296
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, make

1297
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 1: sure to follow us on Twitter at Action Network HQ.

1298
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 1: On the Action Network app, you can track Brandon's prop

1299
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 1: bets as they continue through the NBA Finals, and all

1300
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:36,240
Speaker 1: of Rahem's totals bets as he continued to avoid sides

1301
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 1: like the colard that he is. We will be back

1302
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 1: next week with two episodes if the series goes long.

1303
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:43,720
Speaker 1: If they go short, we'll only do one. And if

1304
01:05:43,760 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 1: the series does wrap up next week, you can count

1305
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,760
Speaker 1: on us for an advanced look at the twenty twenty

1306
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 1: two NBA Finals, which will be a lot of fun.

1307
01:05:52,040 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 1: Make sure to check that out. Also, Raheem is on

1308
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 1: the Favorites this week Chad Melman's podcast with Simon Hunter

1309
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 1: talking about NBA Future or I'm sorry, NFL all futures.

1310
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 1: I have to go listen to that because I have

1311
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 1: to go look for any and all reasons for my

1312
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 1: Cardinals to win the division bet, which I will be

1313
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 1: absolutely leveraged on in this coming NFL season. Thanks for

1314
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 1: joining us, everybody, make sure to subscribe, listen to all

1315
01:06:14,080 --> 01:06:17,240
Speaker 1: the great other shows on the podcast, and we'll talk

1316
01:06:17,240 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 1: to you guys again next time on the Action Network

1317
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: NBA podcast.

1318
01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 5: We're finished talking