WEBVTT - Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:27.724 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:27.804 --> 0:00:30.444 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:00:30.284 --> 0:00:33.524 And I'm Nate Silver. Today will be talking about the 0:00:33.684 --> 0:00:38.204 new president, the forty seventh President, Donald John Trump, who, 0:00:38.244 --> 0:00:40.564 in a funny coincidence, happens to be the exact same 0:00:40.644 --> 0:00:43.004 man who was the forty fifth president of the United States. 0:00:43.844 --> 0:00:55.044 You don't say, wow, hey, I think this is the 0:00:55.084 --> 0:00:57.324 first time I've ever heard you call him with his 0:00:57.364 --> 0:00:57.964 middle name. 0:00:58.564 --> 0:01:01.804 I think this is the like Donald J. Trump. 0:01:04.164 --> 0:01:06.044 But let me tell let's let's start with this, right. 0:01:07.684 --> 0:01:09.844 If you listen to this show, we're too people who 0:01:09.924 --> 0:01:17.324 voted for Kamala Harris. You know, I'm not sure if 0:01:17.364 --> 0:01:20.164 i'd say enthusiastically on my part, but it wasn't. 0:01:20.204 --> 0:01:21.524 I didn't find it that deaf of choice. 0:01:21.564 --> 0:01:24.764 And here we are kind of like laughing in and 0:01:24.804 --> 0:01:28.884 I don't quite sense the mood of like Gallows humor, right, 0:01:28.884 --> 0:01:31.564 but like the rec it feels very different than eight 0:01:32.444 --> 0:01:34.484 years ago. Right, I mean, do you remember kind of 0:01:35.564 --> 0:01:39.204 how you felt in twenty seventeen or twenty sixteen when 0:01:39.244 --> 0:01:40.444 Trump was declared the winner. 0:01:41.204 --> 0:01:44.924 So I definitely remember twenty sixteen because back in twenty sixteen, 0:01:45.164 --> 0:01:48.844 on election night, I was actually doing a live event 0:01:48.924 --> 0:01:52.484 on stage at the Bellhouse in Brooklyn. Slay was doing 0:01:53.004 --> 0:01:56.084 this thing with some of their podcast hosts and I 0:01:56.204 --> 0:01:59.404 was part of the Just podcast. I did a asidement 0:01:59.404 --> 0:02:01.804 called is that Bullshit? So I was on stage commenting 0:02:01.844 --> 0:02:03.844 on this, and the mood in the room just like 0:02:03.924 --> 0:02:07.204 went from like yay, happy to like holy shit, what's 0:02:07.244 --> 0:02:11.364 going on? To the point where I actually left, tapped out, 0:02:11.404 --> 0:02:13.924 went home and said, you know what, you guys can 0:02:14.084 --> 0:02:16.244 can cover this and I will not. 0:02:16.644 --> 0:02:19.284 It's a nice venue, the Bell House, It's very Brooklyn, right, 0:02:19.324 --> 0:02:23.084 and you can imagine the panic in this nice warm 0:02:23.364 --> 0:02:25.844 room that mcainst Sue and Sue is as all the 0:02:25.924 --> 0:02:26.884 returns are going to trim. 0:02:27.564 --> 0:02:30.404 Yep, That's exactly what happened, and I just couldn't take 0:02:30.404 --> 0:02:35.324 it anymore this time around. You know, I think it 0:02:35.404 --> 0:02:40.524 was more expected in a sense, like, of course I 0:02:40.604 --> 0:02:44.564 really wanted Kamala Harris to win, but I was not 0:02:44.644 --> 0:02:48.364 nearly as shocked. I do think in many ways this 0:02:48.484 --> 0:02:52.124 is actually a much more dangerous. It's so funny, right, ironically, 0:02:52.164 --> 0:02:54.964 I think that this is actually a much more dangerous 0:02:55.004 --> 0:02:58.564 moment than the last presidency because and we've talked about 0:02:58.604 --> 0:03:01.844 this on the show before, when you're talking about kind 0:03:01.884 --> 0:03:04.884 of the ability for people to make sweeping changes, we 0:03:04.964 --> 0:03:08.404 have a lot of institutions in place, a lot of guardrails, 0:03:09.004 --> 0:03:11.844 a lot of things that have been weakened, as we've 0:03:11.884 --> 0:03:16.124 talked about over over Trump one point zero. And I 0:03:16.164 --> 0:03:19.524 think that Trump right now is feeling much more empowered, 0:03:19.644 --> 0:03:22.684 much more confident, and has surrounded himself with very different 0:03:22.684 --> 0:03:25.164 people from the first time around. So in some ways, 0:03:25.164 --> 0:03:29.484 I actually think that this is a more dangerous and 0:03:30.124 --> 0:03:33.324 difficult period that we're about to enter. But as you, 0:03:33.484 --> 0:03:36.564 as you correctly point out, like I think all of 0:03:36.644 --> 0:03:39.644 us are exhausted, and how it feels a little different 0:03:39.684 --> 0:03:41.004 in that sense, I'd say it's. 0:03:40.924 --> 0:03:45.124 A higher and here's where I probably show my comparative centrism. 0:03:45.364 --> 0:03:50.284 It's a higher leverage moment, I think, right, And Trump 0:03:50.324 --> 0:03:52.764 seems to sense that, right. He's promising like a new 0:03:52.804 --> 0:03:55.884 I guess that century, but promising like a new era 0:03:56.044 --> 0:04:00.204 of American greatness, which is unambiguously a conservative era, but 0:04:00.324 --> 0:04:03.524 like talking about Americans. 0:04:02.724 --> 0:04:05.604 And technology to William McKinley, right, yeah. 0:04:05.204 --> 0:04:08.004 And talking about hey, you know, maybe that Panama Canal deal. 0:04:08.124 --> 0:04:11.084 You know, maybe we don't like the term so much, right, Yeah, 0:04:12.124 --> 0:04:14.564 but like you know, look, I think the kind of 0:04:14.644 --> 0:04:22.044 old regime, the regime that produced Biden, who Biden. I 0:04:22.044 --> 0:04:23.364 don't know how much you want to talk about Biden. 0:04:23.404 --> 0:04:25.524 Maybe we'll look back around him, but like this kind 0:04:25.524 --> 0:04:31.084 of sclerosis sclerotic regime, like wasn't governing effectively, and I 0:04:31.084 --> 0:04:34.364 think wasn't persuading people effectively. And I don't know, I 0:04:34.404 --> 0:04:36.404 don't think we'll look. You know, there's a chance we 0:04:36.404 --> 0:04:39.684 could look back and say Trump did a lot of 0:04:39.764 --> 0:04:42.924 crazy things and also some things that were okay, right, 0:04:42.964 --> 0:04:44.964 and sometimes the whole point of democracies you have to 0:04:44.964 --> 0:04:48.004 have like sweeping change. I mean, yeah, look, it is different, 0:04:48.084 --> 0:04:50.764 I think, you know, not only so Trump. 0:04:50.804 --> 0:04:51.444 I looked this up. 0:04:52.724 --> 0:04:57.124 Trump had a what are we forty seven seat majority 0:04:57.204 --> 0:05:01.444 in the US House in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. Rather, 0:05:01.484 --> 0:05:05.044 it is confusing with the skipping the one Trump term, 0:05:05.644 --> 0:05:07.564 which is much larger than he's going to have this year, 0:05:07.564 --> 0:05:11.524 which is just a few seats and vulnerable to retirements 0:05:11.524 --> 0:05:14.844 and cabinet appointments and things like that. Right, he didn't 0:05:14.844 --> 0:05:17.364 win the popular vote this time by a point and 0:05:17.404 --> 0:05:20.404 a half, roughly one point five one point six, which 0:05:20.404 --> 0:05:23.164 you didn't of course in twenty sixteen. But like it does, 0:05:23.844 --> 0:05:25.924 it does feel different. Let me point out like six 0:05:26.044 --> 0:05:28.924 or seven factors here that I think make this feel different. 0:05:28.924 --> 0:05:30.404 And I know if you want to jump in and 0:05:31.684 --> 0:05:36.764 cretins or agree or whatever else. Right, first of all, 0:05:36.764 --> 0:05:38.484 it's much harder we got into this to write this 0:05:38.524 --> 0:05:42.884 off as a fluke. He won the popular vote. You know, 0:05:42.884 --> 0:05:46.164 there's also like no, you know, on the one y 0:05:46.204 --> 0:05:48.404 people are taking it more calmly, but there's no like 0:05:49.324 --> 0:05:55.644 protest activity against Trump instead of surging, you know, subscriptions 0:05:55.644 --> 0:05:57.564 to these liberal newspapers like the Washington Post. 0:05:57.604 --> 0:05:58.964 They have lots of issues. 0:05:58.964 --> 0:06:02.124 Frankly, but like are down MSNBC ratings and I'm sure 0:06:02.124 --> 0:06:04.044 they were good yesterday. Aren't doing that well? 0:06:04.124 --> 0:06:06.844 Right? You know, mom and dad. 0:06:06.724 --> 0:06:08.924 Are fighting the Biden and Harris teams are fighting over 0:06:08.964 --> 0:06:11.124 who's fault. It was mostly Biden's by the way, ninety 0:06:11.164 --> 0:06:21.324 eight ninety eight point nine percent. Biden's no maybe eighty percent, no, no, 0:06:21.444 --> 0:06:25.164 ninety percent, and also like other ten percent of Harris's fault, 0:06:25.284 --> 0:06:28.204 Like it's mostly because you hire the fucking stupid Biden people, right, 0:06:28.204 --> 0:06:31.084 So one hundred percent, it's it's Biden's fault. Right, Never 0:06:31.164 --> 0:06:34.244 hire anybody who worked in the senior Biden administration if 0:06:34.284 --> 0:06:37.284 you want to win a campaign. Again, is my advice. Personally, 0:06:39.004 --> 0:06:43.644 there's this whole intervention from the tech right is a 0:06:43.724 --> 0:06:47.764 term that's sometimes used. It overlaps with my term the river. 0:06:47.884 --> 0:06:50.404 But yeah, you have all these Ola garcs and now 0:06:50.404 --> 0:06:52.324 I'm adopting Biden's term. But you know, I'm not sure 0:06:52.324 --> 0:06:55.764 that's so bad. I mean saying rule by powerful rich people. 0:06:55.804 --> 0:06:58.724 Power, I mean I think I think it's accurate. Yeah, 0:06:58.764 --> 0:07:00.604 so Trump is showing, whether it's good or bad, I 0:07:00.644 --> 0:07:01.404 think it's accurate. 0:07:02.164 --> 0:07:04.964 By young thereon Trump on stage was sitting Elon Musk, 0:07:04.964 --> 0:07:07.884 and next to Elon Musk is who was there? Mark Zuckerberg? 0:07:08.004 --> 0:07:10.164 And you had who else? I mean was there? Right? 0:07:10.564 --> 0:07:16.084 All the rich people Stok CEO of TikTok and Facebook 0:07:16.164 --> 0:07:19.244 is making all these changes, some of which I agree with. 0:07:19.364 --> 0:07:22.764 I think the way that fact checking was being done 0:07:22.804 --> 0:07:24.844 was often politically biased. But like they're getting rid of 0:07:24.884 --> 0:07:28.284 all their DEI initiatives and stuff that often just seems 0:07:28.364 --> 0:07:36.644 like symbolic, right, you know, removing tampons from the men's room. 0:07:36.564 --> 0:07:38.164 Like who cares? Right? Why? 0:07:38.204 --> 0:07:41.204 I mean, why are why are you picking these minor fights? 0:07:41.244 --> 0:07:45.764 But clearly the right and the center when we can 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:47.324 debate with the center to the center of the center, 0:07:47.364 --> 0:07:49.924 right or whatever else, feels like they have wherewithal to 0:07:50.004 --> 0:07:52.604 do kind of whatever they want right now. Right, the 0:07:52.644 --> 0:07:56.044 referees have been dispreaded, the teachers have left the room, right, 0:07:56.084 --> 0:07:58.884 and it's a recess with no rules in place anymore so. 0:07:59.324 --> 0:08:02.124 And by the way, it's not just the United States. 0:08:02.164 --> 0:08:05.564 We've had a revolt against incumbent parties all around the world. 0:08:07.804 --> 0:08:10.004 You know, I would have to a little more time 0:08:10.044 --> 0:08:11.924 with it to say is it is it mostly against 0:08:12.844 --> 0:08:15.564 liberalism as opposed to whoever happened to be in power. 0:08:15.604 --> 0:08:19.924 But certainly there's like an anti immigrant, anti immigrant tide, right, 0:08:19.964 --> 0:08:23.204 which is the first thing that Trump emphasized, you know, 0:08:23.284 --> 0:08:27.844 that's priority number number one really for Trump is the immigrants. 0:08:29.924 --> 0:08:32.604 And given that executive discression plays a big role in 0:08:32.644 --> 0:08:37.124 immigration policy, kind of an area where he'll be successful 0:08:37.204 --> 0:08:40.284 probably given kind of what he's finding on. And then 0:08:40.284 --> 0:08:42.324 there's all this new stuff he announced initiative today to 0:08:42.484 --> 0:08:46.724 invest a lot in AI, which is very interesting giving 0:08:46.804 --> 0:08:50.204 the politics of Silicon Valley, where Elon Musk is quite 0:08:50.244 --> 0:08:54.284 worried about AI acceleration and risk, whereas other people the 0:08:54.324 --> 0:08:57.204 Mark and Reasons of the world are accelerationists or at 0:08:57.244 --> 0:08:59.964 least accelerationists adjacent. So I've talked a lot, Maria, what 0:09:00.724 --> 0:09:01.684 are you thinking about here? 0:09:02.564 --> 0:09:06.124 Well, I'm thinking about a lot of things, including one way, 0:09:06.404 --> 0:09:08.484 you know, I think that what you were saying about 0:09:08.564 --> 0:09:12.004 kind of the the teachers are out and we're at 0:09:12.004 --> 0:09:15.404 a supervision free recess is actually a really nice way 0:09:15.524 --> 0:09:19.164 of looking at this because last week on the pod 0:09:19.204 --> 0:09:22.244 we talked a lot about the fact that irrational exuberance 0:09:22.404 --> 0:09:25.764 is still alive and well, and I actually think that 0:09:25.764 --> 0:09:28.804 that's kind of a theme in how the types of 0:09:28.844 --> 0:09:32.084 decisions that Trump is making, and how he's thinking about risk, 0:09:32.404 --> 0:09:34.604 and how his kind of the people surrounding him are 0:09:34.604 --> 0:09:37.444 thinking about risk right now, which is infused with this 0:09:37.524 --> 0:09:41.044 irrational exuberance that, oh, we can get away with anything, 0:09:41.444 --> 0:09:44.364 and I think that is prompting some things that are 0:09:44.404 --> 0:09:47.884 clearly overreach, right, like trying to do an executive order 0:09:47.964 --> 0:09:51.564 that gives gets rid of birthright citizenship. You can't do that, right, Like, 0:09:51.604 --> 0:09:55.004 that's just unconstitutional. That is part of the constitution. That 0:09:55.084 --> 0:09:57.004 is going to have to be an amendment process, and 0:09:57.044 --> 0:10:00.164 he and there are actually multiple things I'm not you know, 0:10:00.204 --> 0:10:02.724 I'm not a lawyer. I'm not a constitutional expert. So 0:10:03.044 --> 0:10:05.364 I'm not going to spend the time right now to 0:10:05.404 --> 0:10:07.684 go through every executive order and being like this one's 0:10:07.684 --> 0:10:09.964 going to get challenge, this one's going to get challenge, right, Yeah, 0:10:09.964 --> 0:10:12.204 but there are a lot that are going to get challenged, 0:10:12.244 --> 0:10:15.284 a lot that are just flat out illegal that he 0:10:15.324 --> 0:10:19.004 can't do. And yet he's doing it because some of 0:10:19.004 --> 0:10:22.124 it is kind of theatrics, right and showing that like, 0:10:22.204 --> 0:10:25.044 oh look, I'm not going to be able to be stopped. 0:10:25.044 --> 0:10:27.364 But some of it is also just showing, you know, 0:10:27.524 --> 0:10:30.164 I am the strong guy. I'm the bully, right, I'm 0:10:30.204 --> 0:10:32.124 the one who can just throw all of this at 0:10:32.164 --> 0:10:35.244 you and what are you going to do about it? 0:10:35.604 --> 0:10:39.684 At least in the immediate term. And it's very funny 0:10:39.684 --> 0:10:42.404 that you have someone who's comparing himself to McKinley, you know, 0:10:42.524 --> 0:10:45.724 us history lesson. That's not a president that normally people 0:10:45.764 --> 0:10:50.324 compare themselves to, because that was not necessarily kind of 0:10:50.324 --> 0:10:55.764 the finest moment of American history, but someone who liked 0:10:55.844 --> 0:10:59.524 to take things. And so at the same time, he's saying, 0:10:59.524 --> 0:11:01.724 you know, let's grab the Panama Canal. I'm going to 0:11:01.804 --> 0:11:04.804 rename this is no longer going to be Gulf of Mexico. 0:11:04.924 --> 0:11:09.964 And I deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. 0:11:07.324 --> 0:11:13.924 So all the Canadian provinces are eligible, Greenland, Panama Canal. 0:11:14.484 --> 0:11:15.284 What's your first pick? 0:11:15.364 --> 0:11:18.164 Ontario, British Columbia. 0:11:18.564 --> 0:11:21.764 Yeah, I mean I think that Ontario is probably it's 0:11:21.844 --> 0:11:23.364 probably a good one, a good first pick. 0:11:23.444 --> 0:11:25.684 Big, it's a big blue state. It's what's gonna be 0:11:25.724 --> 0:11:28.444 like probably twenty six electoral votes or so. That might 0:11:28.444 --> 0:11:30.604 be a mistake. For it might be a mistake. 0:11:30.644 --> 0:11:33.444 But you know, he's not gonna want Quebec because you 0:11:33.484 --> 0:11:36.964 know those are French speakers and you know we don't 0:11:37.044 --> 0:11:40.164 like foreigners around around here. Got to go for the 0:11:40.284 --> 0:11:44.964 nice English speakers. And I think that we just need 0:11:45.004 --> 0:11:49.444 to kind of put this, try to figure out like 0:11:49.804 --> 0:11:52.484 obviously we know where he's coming from, right like, and 0:11:52.524 --> 0:11:55.124 it is this very hubristic like I can just do 0:11:55.204 --> 0:11:58.004 anything right now. But also, as you as you said 0:11:58.044 --> 0:12:00.324 in the beginning, like with the like, what kind of 0:12:00.324 --> 0:12:02.604 shift is this going to be? Will that lead him 0:12:02.604 --> 0:12:04.524 to kind of taking it a little bit too far 0:12:04.604 --> 0:12:08.004 where there will be pushed back because he doesn't have 0:12:08.084 --> 0:12:10.724 the majority that he had before, Right, he doesn't have 0:12:10.764 --> 0:12:13.924 those numbers. Is he going to bring it to the 0:12:13.964 --> 0:12:16.764 point where people, even in the Republican Party are going 0:12:16.804 --> 0:12:19.124 to say enough? So far, we have not seen evidence 0:12:19.164 --> 0:12:20.804 of the fact that this is going to happen. Right, 0:12:20.884 --> 0:12:22.684 It seems like all of his confirmations are going to 0:12:22.684 --> 0:12:25.604 go through, you know, it seems that people are just 0:12:25.764 --> 0:12:30.244 not not caring and they're going along with it for now. 0:12:30.604 --> 0:12:33.524 But what's going to happen, you know, in six months? 0:12:33.884 --> 0:12:34.124 Yeah? 0:12:34.164 --> 0:12:37.484 Look, so yeah, that's one important difference is that you 0:12:37.524 --> 0:12:41.004 have these much narrow congressional majorities and in fact, relatively little. 0:12:41.044 --> 0:12:43.364 I was making a list of predictions of like what 0:12:43.484 --> 0:12:44.564 Trump Willer won't do. 0:12:45.764 --> 0:12:46.644 Very little of this. 0:12:48.164 --> 0:12:52.884 Involves passing legislation through Congress in the first place, right, 0:12:53.484 --> 0:12:55.524 very little of it, Right, I mean, they've already passed 0:12:55.524 --> 0:13:01.324 the Republican House some bill to on youth gender participation 0:13:01.524 --> 0:13:04.164 in sports. Right, they can't pass that through the Senate 0:13:04.204 --> 0:13:06.684 anyway without getting a filibuster proof majority. I don't think 0:13:06.724 --> 0:13:12.124 they will. Democrats are unified enough to prevent them getting 0:13:12.124 --> 0:13:14.444 sixty votes, right and so like so like, you know, 0:13:14.484 --> 0:13:16.604 so that'll have to be done by executive order and 0:13:16.644 --> 0:13:21.324 then litigating it in the courts, and the Chief Justice 0:13:21.404 --> 0:13:24.564 Roberts and the other Conservatives will have to decide where 0:13:24.564 --> 0:13:26.724 they draw the line. I think birthright citizenship is one 0:13:26.724 --> 0:13:29.404 place where they probably will, right, or Trump running for 0:13:29.884 --> 0:13:34.164 third term or things like that. I mean, you know, look, 0:13:34.164 --> 0:13:36.644 I'm not a constitutional scholar, but it seems pretty clear 0:13:36.644 --> 0:13:38.244 to me. But like, so, one big difference is that 0:13:38.564 --> 0:13:42.164 we aren't the only ones who were less surprised by 0:13:42.324 --> 0:13:44.964 Trump's win as compared to eight years ago. 0:13:45.044 --> 0:13:45.124 Right. 0:13:45.164 --> 0:13:48.044 I think Trump himself was pretty surprised by twenty sixteen, right, 0:13:50.244 --> 0:13:52.444 And there weren't a lot. 0:13:52.284 --> 0:13:53.164 Of people who. 0:13:54.484 --> 0:13:56.964 Who looked at this piece of real estate the Trump 0:13:57.044 --> 0:13:59.644 twenty sixteen campaign versus trom twenty twenty four campaign and 0:13:59.684 --> 0:14:02.964 began to plant their flags there. Peter Teel was a 0:14:02.964 --> 0:14:05.884 notable except it's been quiet actually in this election. 0:14:05.964 --> 0:14:08.604 Relative. I don't think he was there necessarily. 0:14:09.004 --> 0:14:12.524 But this time people are like, okay, look, Democrats are 0:14:12.564 --> 0:14:16.284 so fucking stupid. They're running Biden again, right, and so 0:14:16.404 --> 0:14:19.204 we might own the presidency, perhaps also the Congress, but 0:14:19.244 --> 0:14:23.644 most importantly the presidency right for four years, and it's 0:14:23.644 --> 0:14:26.604 a powerful executive and Biden I think did little to 0:14:26.644 --> 0:14:30.284 diminish the power of the executive, by the way, and 0:14:30.404 --> 0:14:33.884 so and so, Yeah, let's actually have a fucking plan 0:14:34.004 --> 0:14:36.884 of things that we can actually accomplish, some of which 0:14:36.924 --> 0:14:41.244 are intended as free roles. We would use a poker term, right, 0:14:41.324 --> 0:14:43.444 Like if you were if you want to remove the 0:14:43.444 --> 0:14:46.524 birthright citizenship stuff, right, what's the. 0:14:46.524 --> 0:14:48.684 Chance the court will have pulled that. 0:14:49.044 --> 0:14:51.244 I don't know, I'm guessing ten percent or something, right, 0:14:51.324 --> 0:14:54.364 or maybe there's another ten percent chance of some halfway 0:14:54.364 --> 0:14:54.724 in the door. 0:14:54.764 --> 0:14:55.764 But it doesn't cost you. 0:14:55.724 --> 0:14:59.444 Anything, really, right, you get liberal tiers and liberal outrage 0:14:59.524 --> 0:15:01.764 no matter what you distract them from. 0:15:02.444 --> 0:15:06.164 Yeah, I think that the distraction is part of it. 0:15:06.204 --> 0:15:09.364 That's what I'm saying, Like, just try to overwhelm people, right, 0:15:09.484 --> 0:15:13.124 and you throw stuff that is just blatantly unconstitutional in there, 0:15:13.164 --> 0:15:16.204 But then like you're putting out all of these fires, 0:15:16.644 --> 0:15:19.084 and it does prevent you from doing something else. I 0:15:19.164 --> 0:15:22.644 have a question for you, Nate, on another topic that 0:15:22.684 --> 0:15:25.564 we've talked about many times on the show pe Doom. 0:15:26.044 --> 0:15:30.124 So because of what Trump has kind of done with 0:15:30.444 --> 0:15:32.884 AI in his first twenty four hours. So first he 0:15:33.284 --> 0:15:36.364 rescented the executive order that Biden had put into place, 0:15:36.604 --> 0:15:40.164 right that had asked big AI companies to loop in 0:15:40.204 --> 0:15:42.364 the US government, right and to kind of tell them 0:15:42.444 --> 0:15:45.124 be transparent with what they were doing with the technologies, 0:15:45.124 --> 0:15:47.564 et cetera. That no longer has to happen. And because 0:15:47.604 --> 0:15:50.564 he does seem to be on like team Yay, let's go. 0:15:51.284 --> 0:15:54.804 And even though Musk is close with him as of now, 0:15:54.924 --> 0:15:57.164 you know, it seems like Musk is right now more 0:15:57.204 --> 0:15:59.924 trying to placate Trump and stay in a position of 0:15:59.964 --> 0:16:03.724 power than he is necessarily trying to kind of counteract 0:16:03.804 --> 0:16:06.044 him and say no, no, like this isn't good because 0:16:06.084 --> 0:16:08.004 he you know, he didn't say as much as bad 0:16:08.044 --> 0:16:10.964 and I about the electric vehicle stuff either, So it 0:16:10.964 --> 0:16:12.924 seems like he's trying to be kind of on team 0:16:12.964 --> 0:16:16.884 Trump right now. So I think they're My question for 0:16:16.964 --> 0:16:19.724 you is what do we think the p doom probabilities 0:16:19.724 --> 0:16:22.724 from Aire, Like, are there things that he's going to 0:16:22.804 --> 0:16:26.164 do in the next four years? Right in terms of 0:16:26.164 --> 0:16:28.444 of his policies that are going to be much more 0:16:28.484 --> 0:16:33.324 difficult to roll back, much more difficult too to talk about. 0:16:33.324 --> 0:16:33.884 What do you think. 0:16:34.804 --> 0:16:40.324 Look, I mean Elon won this big fight against Trump 0:16:40.844 --> 0:16:45.044 or against MAGA on H one B or whichever visas 0:16:45.044 --> 0:16:50.604 on skilled immigration visas. I guess the kind of narrow 0:16:51.044 --> 0:16:53.204 issue is, Yeah, Look, I think Trump is probably good 0:16:53.204 --> 0:16:56.164 for technology growth in the US relative to Democrats, maybe 0:16:56.204 --> 0:16:58.844 with if tariffs don't interfere with that too much, right, 0:16:58.844 --> 0:17:00.084 But that also probably means. 0:16:59.844 --> 0:17:02.084 That, Yeah, I think I think P doom risk is 0:17:02.164 --> 0:17:03.684 up a little bit. 0:17:03.724 --> 0:17:05.724 And I also wonder whether this is going to polarize 0:17:05.724 --> 0:17:08.884 because actually, if you look at public opinion data, people 0:17:08.924 --> 0:17:11.964 are in the abstract pretty worried about P DOOM. I 0:17:11.964 --> 0:17:15.244 think we maybe overestimate kind of how much the average 0:17:15.284 --> 0:17:18.084 person thinks or knows about this. But but if if 0:17:18.084 --> 0:17:20.964 we reach even I mean Sam Melton's talking about how 0:17:20.964 --> 0:17:24.524 we're going to achieve artificial general intelligence at some point 0:17:24.524 --> 0:17:26.444 in the next three is years or something, right like, 0:17:27.404 --> 0:17:29.564 I imagine this is going to become a pretty big 0:17:30.324 --> 0:17:36.884 campaign issue in twenty twenty eight. And if it polarizes, 0:17:36.924 --> 0:17:39.164 maybe Dems are the parties saying we are the ones 0:17:39.204 --> 0:17:42.124 who have to restrain AI. And like, I think it 0:17:42.164 --> 0:17:44.604 could actually be kind of like a popular message, right, 0:17:44.604 --> 0:17:45.884 I mean, what's the path forward here? 0:17:45.964 --> 0:17:46.124 Right? 0:17:46.204 --> 0:17:51.204 Is it like oligarch versus oligarch or is it oligarch 0:17:51.324 --> 0:17:53.164 versus everyone else? And Democrats have to, like I think 0:17:53.204 --> 0:17:56.924 pick one of those two lanes over a timeframe of 0:17:57.044 --> 0:17:59.964 like of like ten or something years, right, because it 0:18:00.044 --> 0:18:04.764 is absolutely true. And again I don't think these oligarchs 0:18:04.844 --> 0:18:06.524 could go on a case by case basis, right. The 0:18:06.564 --> 0:18:09.844 super rich Silicon Valley people, I don't think they're dumb 0:18:09.844 --> 0:18:13.044 people or bad people necessarily, right, But they have economic interests, 0:18:13.044 --> 0:18:17.324 and they have a philosopher's actually quite predictable in some 0:18:17.364 --> 0:18:19.724 ways and transparent, and they've kind of realized now that 0:18:19.764 --> 0:18:22.764 we have ways to like actuate our interests. 0:18:22.844 --> 0:18:25.724 Right. So there are various questions here, you know. 0:18:25.724 --> 0:18:28.124 One question is whether you know there are a lot 0:18:28.124 --> 0:18:31.524 of Silicon Valley types who are either liberal liberals or 0:18:31.524 --> 0:18:34.164 like classic liberals, right, or just might say, okay, well, 0:18:34.164 --> 0:18:37.844 maybe I want to try to like rekindle this Obama 0:18:37.924 --> 0:18:41.804 era alliance in the Democrat Party with you know, with 0:18:41.924 --> 0:18:44.164 the tech sector where you know, two thousand and eight 0:18:44.204 --> 0:18:47.644 was the Facebook elections supposedly whatever else and all the 0:18:47.684 --> 0:18:49.964 Obama people worked at Facebook and vice versa and things 0:18:49.964 --> 0:18:52.524 like that. You know, but you kind of have to 0:18:52.564 --> 0:18:55.404 pick one, right, if you're Democrats, you should either be 0:18:56.444 --> 0:19:03.044 criticizing the oligarchs and AI by twenty twenty eight will 0:19:03.084 --> 0:19:06.444 become a tangible issue there in which public opinion might 0:19:06.484 --> 0:19:08.004 be on your side. 0:19:08.284 --> 0:19:08.764 Maybe climate. 0:19:08.804 --> 0:19:11.484 I think it's a little more complicated, right, but because 0:19:11.524 --> 0:19:14.044 they tend to be a little bit more sensitive to 0:19:14.084 --> 0:19:15.804 climate change. Or do you want to like draft your 0:19:15.804 --> 0:19:18.564 own Mark Cuban or dissident or like who knows how 0:19:18.564 --> 0:19:22.404 long Elon's relationship with Trump will will last? Right, maybe 0:19:22.444 --> 0:19:26.804 Steve Bannon wins that fight eventually. Vivic Ramaswami has already 0:19:26.804 --> 0:19:28.444 been ousted from STOG. 0:19:29.204 --> 0:19:29.924 That was fast. 0:19:30.964 --> 0:19:33.204 Well, he made this very cringe tweet about how like 0:19:33.484 --> 0:19:35.284 you got to pull you know what was his reference, 0:19:35.324 --> 0:19:37.404 like saved by the bell and how nerds don't get 0:19:37.524 --> 0:19:39.804 enough respect and like yeah, it's like never heard from again. 0:19:39.804 --> 0:19:42.084 He made he's running for governor of Ohio, so maybe 0:19:42.084 --> 0:19:43.524 he'll governor of Ohio. I think you may never be 0:19:43.564 --> 0:19:46.244 heard from again. It was just such a cringey tweet, 0:19:46.324 --> 0:19:49.124 right that even Elon was like, bro, it's too much. 0:19:51.204 --> 0:19:54.124 But Democrats have to like pick a lane. 0:19:54.244 --> 0:19:56.004 And I think the stuff about the fact that there 0:19:56.084 --> 0:20:00.604 is this concentration of wealth and power is like, is 0:20:00.724 --> 0:20:03.684 quite it's true, right, I mean, it's a it's true that, 0:20:03.804 --> 0:20:07.124 like and again I'm a fucking neoliberal capitalist, right, but 0:20:07.164 --> 0:20:11.484 it is true that that more and more wealth and 0:20:11.564 --> 0:20:15.084 power is being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, especially 0:20:15.124 --> 0:20:17.604 at the very very very very very top end. 0:20:17.764 --> 0:20:17.924 Right. 0:20:18.324 --> 0:20:21.284 The ten most, literally the ten most are twenty richest 0:20:21.284 --> 0:20:23.884 and most powerful people in the world, and they're increasingly 0:20:23.924 --> 0:20:27.284 actuating their political interests, right, Like, I think that line 0:20:27.324 --> 0:20:34.164 of critique is more promising electorally and fresher and maybe 0:20:34.244 --> 0:20:36.364 truer than just calling Trump a fascist. 0:20:36.844 --> 0:20:37.044 Right. 0:20:37.204 --> 0:20:40.484 If that didn't work that, I mean Joe Biden thought, oh, 0:20:40.764 --> 0:20:43.044 January sixth was so bad, We'll just have to I 0:20:43.084 --> 0:20:45.084 don't know what voice I'm doing here, but like, but 0:20:45.204 --> 0:20:50.124 that just screaming democracy, democracy, democracy, right, Like, that didn't work. 0:20:50.164 --> 0:20:51.924 People are sick and tired of that. And the fact 0:20:51.924 --> 0:20:55.124 is that the democratic system delivered a verdict that people 0:20:55.124 --> 0:20:57.964 are sick and tired of these candidates Democrats are nominating, 0:20:59.284 --> 0:21:01.724 and Democrats can rebound for that system, and I think 0:21:01.764 --> 0:21:03.484 they probably will in twenty twenty six, I think there 0:21:03.484 --> 0:21:06.084 could be a bad mid term for Trump. This global 0:21:06.124 --> 0:21:08.844 anti incumbent mood could easily come back around to bite him. 0:21:08.844 --> 0:21:11.884 You know, I think is kind of like the efficacy 0:21:11.924 --> 0:21:15.924 of governance, right, Like, you know, Democrats are the expert 0:21:15.924 --> 0:21:19.804 class and and fucked lots of things up, right, It 0:21:19.804 --> 0:21:23.844 doesn't mean to me that like the non expert diletant 0:21:23.924 --> 0:21:26.364 class is going to do any better necessarily, right, Like 0:21:26.404 --> 0:21:29.924 maybe on every third maybe one out of three things, yes, right, 0:21:31.604 --> 0:21:33.484