1
00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:27,724
Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

2
00:00:27,804 --> 00:00:30,444
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova.

3
00:00:30,284 --> 00:00:33,524
Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today will be talking about the

4
00:00:33,684 --> 00:00:38,204
Speaker 2: new president, the forty seventh President, Donald John Trump, who,

5
00:00:38,244 --> 00:00:40,564
Speaker 2: in a funny coincidence, happens to be the exact same

6
00:00:40,644 --> 00:00:43,004
Speaker 2: man who was the forty fifth president of the United States.

7
00:00:43,844 --> 00:00:55,044
Speaker 1: You don't say, wow, hey, I think this is the

8
00:00:55,084 --> 00:00:57,324
Speaker 1: first time I've ever heard you call him with his

9
00:00:57,364 --> 00:00:57,964
Speaker 1: middle name.

10
00:00:58,564 --> 00:01:01,804
Speaker 3: I think this is the like Donald J. Trump.

11
00:01:04,164 --> 00:01:06,044
Speaker 2: But let me tell let's let's start with this, right.

12
00:01:07,684 --> 00:01:09,844
Speaker 2: If you listen to this show, we're too people who

13
00:01:09,924 --> 00:01:17,324
Speaker 2: voted for Kamala Harris. You know, I'm not sure if

14
00:01:17,364 --> 00:01:20,164
Speaker 2: i'd say enthusiastically on my part, but it wasn't.

15
00:01:20,204 --> 00:01:21,524
Speaker 3: I didn't find it that deaf of choice.

16
00:01:21,564 --> 00:01:24,764
Speaker 2: And here we are kind of like laughing in and

17
00:01:24,804 --> 00:01:28,884
Speaker 2: I don't quite sense the mood of like Gallows humor, right,

18
00:01:28,884 --> 00:01:31,564
Speaker 2: but like the rec it feels very different than eight

19
00:01:32,444 --> 00:01:34,484
Speaker 2: years ago. Right, I mean, do you remember kind of

20
00:01:35,564 --> 00:01:39,204
Speaker 2: how you felt in twenty seventeen or twenty sixteen when

21
00:01:39,244 --> 00:01:40,444
Speaker 2: Trump was declared the winner.

22
00:01:41,204 --> 00:01:44,924
Speaker 1: So I definitely remember twenty sixteen because back in twenty sixteen,

23
00:01:45,164 --> 00:01:48,844
Speaker 1: on election night, I was actually doing a live event

24
00:01:48,924 --> 00:01:52,484
Speaker 1: on stage at the Bellhouse in Brooklyn. Slay was doing

25
00:01:53,004 --> 00:01:56,084
Speaker 1: this thing with some of their podcast hosts and I

26
00:01:56,204 --> 00:01:59,404
Speaker 1: was part of the Just podcast. I did a asidement

27
00:01:59,404 --> 00:02:01,804
Speaker 1: called is that Bullshit? So I was on stage commenting

28
00:02:01,844 --> 00:02:03,844
Speaker 1: on this, and the mood in the room just like

29
00:02:03,924 --> 00:02:07,204
Speaker 1: went from like yay, happy to like holy shit, what's

30
00:02:07,244 --> 00:02:11,364
Speaker 1: going on? To the point where I actually left, tapped out,

31
00:02:11,404 --> 00:02:13,924
Speaker 1: went home and said, you know what, you guys can

32
00:02:14,084 --> 00:02:16,244
Speaker 1: can cover this and I will not.

33
00:02:16,644 --> 00:02:19,284
Speaker 2: It's a nice venue, the Bell House, It's very Brooklyn, right,

34
00:02:19,324 --> 00:02:23,084
Speaker 2: and you can imagine the panic in this nice warm

35
00:02:23,364 --> 00:02:25,844
Speaker 2: room that mcainst Sue and Sue is as all the

36
00:02:25,924 --> 00:02:26,884
Speaker 2: returns are going to trim.

37
00:02:27,564 --> 00:02:30,404
Speaker 1: Yep, That's exactly what happened, and I just couldn't take

38
00:02:30,404 --> 00:02:35,324
Speaker 1: it anymore this time around. You know, I think it

39
00:02:35,404 --> 00:02:40,524
Speaker 1: was more expected in a sense, like, of course I

40
00:02:40,604 --> 00:02:44,564
Speaker 1: really wanted Kamala Harris to win, but I was not

41
00:02:44,644 --> 00:02:48,364
Speaker 1: nearly as shocked. I do think in many ways this

42
00:02:48,484 --> 00:02:52,124
Speaker 1: is actually a much more dangerous. It's so funny, right, ironically,

43
00:02:52,164 --> 00:02:54,964
Speaker 1: I think that this is actually a much more dangerous

44
00:02:55,004 --> 00:02:58,564
Speaker 1: moment than the last presidency because and we've talked about

45
00:02:58,604 --> 00:03:01,844
Speaker 1: this on the show before, when you're talking about kind

46
00:03:01,884 --> 00:03:04,884
Speaker 1: of the ability for people to make sweeping changes, we

47
00:03:04,964 --> 00:03:08,404
Speaker 1: have a lot of institutions in place, a lot of guardrails,

48
00:03:09,004 --> 00:03:11,844
Speaker 1: a lot of things that have been weakened, as we've

49
00:03:11,884 --> 00:03:16,124
Speaker 1: talked about over over Trump one point zero. And I

50
00:03:16,164 --> 00:03:19,524
Speaker 1: think that Trump right now is feeling much more empowered,

51
00:03:19,644 --> 00:03:22,684
Speaker 1: much more confident, and has surrounded himself with very different

52
00:03:22,684 --> 00:03:25,164
Speaker 1: people from the first time around. So in some ways,

53
00:03:25,164 --> 00:03:29,484
Speaker 1: I actually think that this is a more dangerous and

54
00:03:30,124 --> 00:03:33,324
Speaker 1: difficult period that we're about to enter. But as you,

55
00:03:33,484 --> 00:03:36,564
Speaker 1: as you correctly point out, like I think all of

56
00:03:36,644 --> 00:03:39,644
Speaker 1: us are exhausted, and how it feels a little different

57
00:03:39,684 --> 00:03:41,004
Speaker 1: in that sense, I'd say it's.

58
00:03:40,924 --> 00:03:45,124
Speaker 2: A higher and here's where I probably show my comparative centrism.

59
00:03:45,364 --> 00:03:50,284
Speaker 2: It's a higher leverage moment, I think, right, And Trump

60
00:03:50,324 --> 00:03:52,764
Speaker 2: seems to sense that, right. He's promising like a new

61
00:03:52,804 --> 00:03:55,884
Speaker 2: I guess that century, but promising like a new era

62
00:03:56,044 --> 00:04:00,204
Speaker 2: of American greatness, which is unambiguously a conservative era, but

63
00:04:00,324 --> 00:04:03,524
Speaker 2: like talking about Americans.

64
00:04:02,724 --> 00:04:05,604
Speaker 1: And technology to William McKinley, right, yeah.

65
00:04:05,204 --> 00:04:08,004
Speaker 2: And talking about hey, you know, maybe that Panama Canal deal.

66
00:04:08,124 --> 00:04:11,084
Speaker 2: You know, maybe we don't like the term so much, right, Yeah,

67
00:04:12,124 --> 00:04:14,564
Speaker 2: but like you know, look, I think the kind of

68
00:04:14,644 --> 00:04:22,044
Speaker 2: old regime, the regime that produced Biden, who Biden. I

69
00:04:22,044 --> 00:04:23,364
Speaker 2: don't know how much you want to talk about Biden.

70
00:04:23,404 --> 00:04:25,524
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll look back around him, but like this kind

71
00:04:25,524 --> 00:04:31,084
Speaker 2: of sclerosis sclerotic regime, like wasn't governing effectively, and I

72
00:04:31,084 --> 00:04:34,364
Speaker 2: think wasn't persuading people effectively. And I don't know, I

73
00:04:34,404 --> 00:04:36,404
Speaker 2: don't think we'll look. You know, there's a chance we

74
00:04:36,404 --> 00:04:39,684
Speaker 2: could look back and say Trump did a lot of

75
00:04:39,764 --> 00:04:42,924
Speaker 2: crazy things and also some things that were okay, right,

76
00:04:42,964 --> 00:04:44,964
Speaker 2: and sometimes the whole point of democracies you have to

77
00:04:44,964 --> 00:04:48,004
Speaker 2: have like sweeping change. I mean, yeah, look, it is different,

78
00:04:48,084 --> 00:04:50,764
Speaker 2: I think, you know, not only so Trump.

79
00:04:50,804 --> 00:04:51,444
Speaker 3: I looked this up.

80
00:04:52,724 --> 00:04:57,124
Speaker 2: Trump had a what are we forty seven seat majority

81
00:04:57,204 --> 00:05:01,444
Speaker 2: in the US House in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. Rather,

82
00:05:01,484 --> 00:05:05,044
Speaker 2: it is confusing with the skipping the one Trump term,

83
00:05:05,644 --> 00:05:07,564
Speaker 2: which is much larger than he's going to have this year,

84
00:05:07,564 --> 00:05:11,524
Speaker 2: which is just a few seats and vulnerable to retirements

85
00:05:11,524 --> 00:05:14,844
Speaker 2: and cabinet appointments and things like that. Right, he didn't

86
00:05:14,844 --> 00:05:17,364
Speaker 2: win the popular vote this time by a point and

87
00:05:17,404 --> 00:05:20,404
Speaker 2: a half, roughly one point five one point six, which

88
00:05:20,404 --> 00:05:23,164
Speaker 2: you didn't of course in twenty sixteen. But like it does,

89
00:05:23,844 --> 00:05:25,924
Speaker 2: it does feel different. Let me point out like six

90
00:05:26,044 --> 00:05:28,924
Speaker 2: or seven factors here that I think make this feel different.

91
00:05:28,924 --> 00:05:30,404
Speaker 2: And I know if you want to jump in and

92
00:05:31,684 --> 00:05:36,764
Speaker 2: cretins or agree or whatever else. Right, first of all,

93
00:05:36,764 --> 00:05:38,484
Speaker 2: it's much harder we got into this to write this

94
00:05:38,524 --> 00:05:42,884
Speaker 2: off as a fluke. He won the popular vote. You know,

95
00:05:42,884 --> 00:05:46,164
Speaker 2: there's also like no, you know, on the one y

96
00:05:46,204 --> 00:05:48,404
Speaker 2: people are taking it more calmly, but there's no like

97
00:05:49,324 --> 00:05:55,644
Speaker 2: protest activity against Trump instead of surging, you know, subscriptions

98
00:05:55,644 --> 00:05:57,564
Speaker 2: to these liberal newspapers like the Washington Post.

99
00:05:57,604 --> 00:05:58,964
Speaker 3: They have lots of issues.

100
00:05:58,964 --> 00:06:02,124
Speaker 2: Frankly, but like are down MSNBC ratings and I'm sure

101
00:06:02,124 --> 00:06:04,044
Speaker 2: they were good yesterday. Aren't doing that well?

102
00:06:04,124 --> 00:06:06,844
Speaker 3: Right? You know, mom and dad.

103
00:06:06,724 --> 00:06:08,924
Speaker 2: Are fighting the Biden and Harris teams are fighting over

104
00:06:08,964 --> 00:06:11,124
Speaker 2: who's fault. It was mostly Biden's by the way, ninety

105
00:06:11,164 --> 00:06:21,324
Speaker 2: eight ninety eight point nine percent. Biden's no maybe eighty percent, no, no,

106
00:06:21,444 --> 00:06:25,164
Speaker 2: ninety percent, and also like other ten percent of Harris's fault,

107
00:06:25,284 --> 00:06:28,204
Speaker 2: Like it's mostly because you hire the fucking stupid Biden people, right,

108
00:06:28,204 --> 00:06:31,084
Speaker 2: So one hundred percent, it's it's Biden's fault. Right, Never

109
00:06:31,164 --> 00:06:34,244
Speaker 2: hire anybody who worked in the senior Biden administration if

110
00:06:34,284 --> 00:06:37,284
Speaker 2: you want to win a campaign. Again, is my advice. Personally,

111
00:06:39,004 --> 00:06:43,644
Speaker 2: there's this whole intervention from the tech right is a

112
00:06:43,724 --> 00:06:47,764
Speaker 2: term that's sometimes used. It overlaps with my term the river.

113
00:06:47,884 --> 00:06:50,404
Speaker 2: But yeah, you have all these Ola garcs and now

114
00:06:50,404 --> 00:06:52,324
Speaker 2: I'm adopting Biden's term. But you know, I'm not sure

115
00:06:52,324 --> 00:06:55,764
Speaker 2: that's so bad. I mean saying rule by powerful rich people.

116
00:06:55,804 --> 00:06:58,724
Speaker 1: Power, I mean I think I think it's accurate. Yeah,

117
00:06:58,764 --> 00:07:00,604
Speaker 1: so Trump is showing, whether it's good or bad, I

118
00:07:00,644 --> 00:07:01,404
Speaker 1: think it's accurate.

119
00:07:02,164 --> 00:07:04,964
Speaker 2: By young thereon Trump on stage was sitting Elon Musk,

120
00:07:04,964 --> 00:07:07,884
Speaker 2: and next to Elon Musk is who was there? Mark Zuckerberg?

121
00:07:08,004 --> 00:07:10,164
Speaker 3: And you had who else? I mean was there? Right?

122
00:07:10,564 --> 00:07:16,084
Speaker 2: All the rich people Stok CEO of TikTok and Facebook

123
00:07:16,164 --> 00:07:19,244
Speaker 2: is making all these changes, some of which I agree with.

124
00:07:19,364 --> 00:07:22,764
Speaker 2: I think the way that fact checking was being done

125
00:07:22,804 --> 00:07:24,844
Speaker 2: was often politically biased. But like they're getting rid of

126
00:07:24,884 --> 00:07:28,284
Speaker 2: all their DEI initiatives and stuff that often just seems

127
00:07:28,364 --> 00:07:36,644
Speaker 2: like symbolic, right, you know, removing tampons from the men's room.

128
00:07:36,564 --> 00:07:38,164
Speaker 3: Like who cares? Right? Why?

129
00:07:38,204 --> 00:07:41,204
Speaker 2: I mean, why are why are you picking these minor fights?

130
00:07:41,244 --> 00:07:45,764
Speaker 2: But clearly the right and the center when we can

131
00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:47,324
Speaker 2: debate with the center to the center of the center,

132
00:07:47,364 --> 00:07:49,924
Speaker 2: right or whatever else, feels like they have wherewithal to

133
00:07:50,004 --> 00:07:52,604
Speaker 2: do kind of whatever they want right now. Right, the

134
00:07:52,644 --> 00:07:56,044
Speaker 2: referees have been dispreaded, the teachers have left the room, right,

135
00:07:56,084 --> 00:07:58,884
Speaker 2: and it's a recess with no rules in place anymore so.

136
00:07:59,324 --> 00:08:02,124
Speaker 2: And by the way, it's not just the United States.

137
00:08:02,164 --> 00:08:05,564
Speaker 2: We've had a revolt against incumbent parties all around the world.

138
00:08:07,804 --> 00:08:10,004
Speaker 2: You know, I would have to a little more time

139
00:08:10,044 --> 00:08:11,924
Speaker 2: with it to say is it is it mostly against

140
00:08:12,844 --> 00:08:15,564
Speaker 2: liberalism as opposed to whoever happened to be in power.

141
00:08:15,604 --> 00:08:19,924
Speaker 2: But certainly there's like an anti immigrant, anti immigrant tide, right,

142
00:08:19,964 --> 00:08:23,204
Speaker 2: which is the first thing that Trump emphasized, you know,

143
00:08:23,284 --> 00:08:27,844
Speaker 2: that's priority number number one really for Trump is the immigrants.

144
00:08:29,924 --> 00:08:32,604
Speaker 2: And given that executive discression plays a big role in

145
00:08:32,644 --> 00:08:37,124
Speaker 2: immigration policy, kind of an area where he'll be successful

146
00:08:37,204 --> 00:08:40,284
Speaker 2: probably given kind of what he's finding on. And then

147
00:08:40,284 --> 00:08:42,324
Speaker 2: there's all this new stuff he announced initiative today to

148
00:08:42,484 --> 00:08:46,724
Speaker 2: invest a lot in AI, which is very interesting giving

149
00:08:46,804 --> 00:08:50,204
Speaker 2: the politics of Silicon Valley, where Elon Musk is quite

150
00:08:50,244 --> 00:08:54,284
Speaker 2: worried about AI acceleration and risk, whereas other people the

151
00:08:54,324 --> 00:08:57,204
Speaker 2: Mark and Reasons of the world are accelerationists or at

152
00:08:57,244 --> 00:08:59,964
Speaker 2: least accelerationists adjacent. So I've talked a lot, Maria, what

153
00:09:00,724 --> 00:09:01,684
Speaker 2: are you thinking about here?

154
00:09:02,564 --> 00:09:06,124
Speaker 1: Well, I'm thinking about a lot of things, including one way,

155
00:09:06,404 --> 00:09:08,484
Speaker 1: you know, I think that what you were saying about

156
00:09:08,564 --> 00:09:12,004
Speaker 1: kind of the the teachers are out and we're at

157
00:09:12,004 --> 00:09:15,404
Speaker 1: a supervision free recess is actually a really nice way

158
00:09:15,524 --> 00:09:19,164
Speaker 1: of looking at this because last week on the pod

159
00:09:19,204 --> 00:09:22,244
Speaker 1: we talked a lot about the fact that irrational exuberance

160
00:09:22,404 --> 00:09:25,764
Speaker 1: is still alive and well, and I actually think that

161
00:09:25,764 --> 00:09:28,804
Speaker 1: that's kind of a theme in how the types of

162
00:09:28,844 --> 00:09:32,084
Speaker 1: decisions that Trump is making, and how he's thinking about risk,

163
00:09:32,404 --> 00:09:34,604
Speaker 1: and how his kind of the people surrounding him are

164
00:09:34,604 --> 00:09:37,444
Speaker 1: thinking about risk right now, which is infused with this

165
00:09:37,524 --> 00:09:41,044
Speaker 1: irrational exuberance that, oh, we can get away with anything,

166
00:09:41,444 --> 00:09:44,364
Speaker 1: and I think that is prompting some things that are

167
00:09:44,404 --> 00:09:47,884
Speaker 1: clearly overreach, right, like trying to do an executive order

168
00:09:47,964 --> 00:09:51,564
Speaker 1: that gives gets rid of birthright citizenship. You can't do that, right, Like,

169
00:09:51,604 --> 00:09:55,004
Speaker 1: that's just unconstitutional. That is part of the constitution. That

170
00:09:55,084 --> 00:09:57,004
Speaker 1: is going to have to be an amendment process, and

171
00:09:57,044 --> 00:10:00,164
Speaker 1: he and there are actually multiple things I'm not you know,

172
00:10:00,204 --> 00:10:02,724
Speaker 1: I'm not a lawyer. I'm not a constitutional expert. So

173
00:10:03,044 --> 00:10:05,364
Speaker 1: I'm not going to spend the time right now to

174
00:10:05,404 --> 00:10:07,684
Speaker 1: go through every executive order and being like this one's

175
00:10:07,684 --> 00:10:09,964
Speaker 1: going to get challenge, this one's going to get challenge, right, Yeah,

176
00:10:09,964 --> 00:10:12,204
Speaker 1: but there are a lot that are going to get challenged,

177
00:10:12,244 --> 00:10:15,284
Speaker 1: a lot that are just flat out illegal that he

178
00:10:15,324 --> 00:10:19,004
Speaker 1: can't do. And yet he's doing it because some of

179
00:10:19,004 --> 00:10:22,124
Speaker 1: it is kind of theatrics, right and showing that like,

180
00:10:22,204 --> 00:10:25,044
Speaker 1: oh look, I'm not going to be able to be stopped.

181
00:10:25,044 --> 00:10:27,364
Speaker 1: But some of it is also just showing, you know,

182
00:10:27,524 --> 00:10:30,164
Speaker 1: I am the strong guy. I'm the bully, right, I'm

183
00:10:30,204 --> 00:10:32,124
Speaker 1: the one who can just throw all of this at

184
00:10:32,164 --> 00:10:35,244
Speaker 1: you and what are you going to do about it?

185
00:10:35,604 --> 00:10:39,684
Speaker 1: At least in the immediate term. And it's very funny

186
00:10:39,684 --> 00:10:42,404
Speaker 1: that you have someone who's comparing himself to McKinley, you know,

187
00:10:42,524 --> 00:10:45,724
Speaker 1: us history lesson. That's not a president that normally people

188
00:10:45,764 --> 00:10:50,324
Speaker 1: compare themselves to, because that was not necessarily kind of

189
00:10:50,324 --> 00:10:55,764
Speaker 1: the finest moment of American history, but someone who liked

190
00:10:55,844 --> 00:10:59,524
Speaker 1: to take things. And so at the same time, he's saying,

191
00:10:59,524 --> 00:11:01,724
Speaker 1: you know, let's grab the Panama Canal. I'm going to

192
00:11:01,804 --> 00:11:04,804
Speaker 1: rename this is no longer going to be Gulf of Mexico.

193
00:11:04,924 --> 00:11:09,964
Speaker 1: And I deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

194
00:11:07,324 --> 00:11:13,924
Speaker 2: So all the Canadian provinces are eligible, Greenland, Panama Canal.

195
00:11:14,484 --> 00:11:15,284
Speaker 3: What's your first pick?

196
00:11:15,364 --> 00:11:18,164
Speaker 2: Ontario, British Columbia.

197
00:11:18,564 --> 00:11:21,764
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think that Ontario is probably it's

198
00:11:21,844 --> 00:11:23,364
Speaker 1: probably a good one, a good first pick.

199
00:11:23,444 --> 00:11:25,684
Speaker 2: Big, it's a big blue state. It's what's gonna be

200
00:11:25,724 --> 00:11:28,444
Speaker 2: like probably twenty six electoral votes or so. That might

201
00:11:28,444 --> 00:11:30,604
Speaker 2: be a mistake. For it might be a mistake.

202
00:11:30,644 --> 00:11:33,444
Speaker 1: But you know, he's not gonna want Quebec because you

203
00:11:33,484 --> 00:11:36,964
Speaker 1: know those are French speakers and you know we don't

204
00:11:37,044 --> 00:11:40,164
Speaker 1: like foreigners around around here. Got to go for the

205
00:11:40,284 --> 00:11:44,964
Speaker 1: nice English speakers. And I think that we just need

206
00:11:45,004 --> 00:11:49,444
Speaker 1: to kind of put this, try to figure out like

207
00:11:49,804 --> 00:11:52,484
Speaker 1: obviously we know where he's coming from, right like, and

208
00:11:52,524 --> 00:11:55,124
Speaker 1: it is this very hubristic like I can just do

209
00:11:55,204 --> 00:11:58,004
Speaker 1: anything right now. But also, as you as you said

210
00:11:58,044 --> 00:12:00,324
Speaker 1: in the beginning, like with the like, what kind of

211
00:12:00,324 --> 00:12:02,604
Speaker 1: shift is this going to be? Will that lead him

212
00:12:02,604 --> 00:12:04,524
Speaker 1: to kind of taking it a little bit too far

213
00:12:04,604 --> 00:12:08,004
Speaker 1: where there will be pushed back because he doesn't have

214
00:12:08,084 --> 00:12:10,724
Speaker 1: the majority that he had before, Right, he doesn't have

215
00:12:10,764 --> 00:12:13,924
Speaker 1: those numbers. Is he going to bring it to the

216
00:12:13,964 --> 00:12:16,764
Speaker 1: point where people, even in the Republican Party are going

217
00:12:16,804 --> 00:12:19,124
Speaker 1: to say enough? So far, we have not seen evidence

218
00:12:19,164 --> 00:12:20,804
Speaker 1: of the fact that this is going to happen. Right,

219
00:12:20,884 --> 00:12:22,684
Speaker 1: It seems like all of his confirmations are going to

220
00:12:22,684 --> 00:12:25,604
Speaker 1: go through, you know, it seems that people are just

221
00:12:25,764 --> 00:12:30,244
Speaker 1: not not caring and they're going along with it for now.

222
00:12:30,604 --> 00:12:33,524
Speaker 1: But what's going to happen, you know, in six months?

223
00:12:33,884 --> 00:12:34,124
Speaker 3: Yeah?

224
00:12:34,164 --> 00:12:37,484
Speaker 2: Look, so yeah, that's one important difference is that you

225
00:12:37,524 --> 00:12:41,004
Speaker 2: have these much narrow congressional majorities and in fact, relatively little.

226
00:12:41,044 --> 00:12:43,364
Speaker 2: I was making a list of predictions of like what

227
00:12:43,484 --> 00:12:44,564
Speaker 2: Trump Willer won't do.

228
00:12:45,764 --> 00:12:46,644
Speaker 3: Very little of this.

229
00:12:48,164 --> 00:12:52,884
Speaker 2: Involves passing legislation through Congress in the first place, right,

230
00:12:53,484 --> 00:12:55,524
Speaker 2: very little of it, Right, I mean, they've already passed

231
00:12:55,524 --> 00:13:01,324
Speaker 2: the Republican House some bill to on youth gender participation

232
00:13:01,524 --> 00:13:04,164
Speaker 2: in sports. Right, they can't pass that through the Senate

233
00:13:04,204 --> 00:13:06,684
Speaker 2: anyway without getting a filibuster proof majority. I don't think

234
00:13:06,724 --> 00:13:12,124
Speaker 2: they will. Democrats are unified enough to prevent them getting

235
00:13:12,124 --> 00:13:14,444
Speaker 2: sixty votes, right and so like so like, you know,

236
00:13:14,484 --> 00:13:16,604
Speaker 2: so that'll have to be done by executive order and

237
00:13:16,644 --> 00:13:21,324
Speaker 2: then litigating it in the courts, and the Chief Justice

238
00:13:21,404 --> 00:13:24,564
Speaker 2: Roberts and the other Conservatives will have to decide where

239
00:13:24,564 --> 00:13:26,724
Speaker 2: they draw the line. I think birthright citizenship is one

240
00:13:26,724 --> 00:13:29,404
Speaker 2: place where they probably will, right, or Trump running for

241
00:13:29,884 --> 00:13:34,164
Speaker 2: third term or things like that. I mean, you know, look,

242
00:13:34,164 --> 00:13:36,644
Speaker 2: I'm not a constitutional scholar, but it seems pretty clear

243
00:13:36,644 --> 00:13:38,244
Speaker 2: to me. But like, so, one big difference is that

244
00:13:38,564 --> 00:13:42,164
Speaker 2: we aren't the only ones who were less surprised by

245
00:13:42,324 --> 00:13:44,964
Speaker 2: Trump's win as compared to eight years ago.

246
00:13:45,044 --> 00:13:45,124
Speaker 1: Right.

247
00:13:45,164 --> 00:13:48,044
Speaker 2: I think Trump himself was pretty surprised by twenty sixteen, right,

248
00:13:50,244 --> 00:13:52,444
Speaker 2: And there weren't a lot.

249
00:13:52,284 --> 00:13:53,164
Speaker 3: Of people who.

250
00:13:54,484 --> 00:13:56,964
Speaker 2: Who looked at this piece of real estate the Trump

251
00:13:57,044 --> 00:13:59,644
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen campaign versus trom twenty twenty four campaign and

252
00:13:59,684 --> 00:14:02,964
Speaker 2: began to plant their flags there. Peter Teel was a

253
00:14:02,964 --> 00:14:05,884
Speaker 2: notable except it's been quiet actually in this election.

254
00:14:05,964 --> 00:14:08,604
Speaker 3: Relative. I don't think he was there necessarily.

255
00:14:09,004 --> 00:14:12,524
Speaker 2: But this time people are like, okay, look, Democrats are

256
00:14:12,564 --> 00:14:16,284
Speaker 2: so fucking stupid. They're running Biden again, right, and so

257
00:14:16,404 --> 00:14:19,204
Speaker 2: we might own the presidency, perhaps also the Congress, but

258
00:14:19,244 --> 00:14:23,644
Speaker 2: most importantly the presidency right for four years, and it's

259
00:14:23,644 --> 00:14:26,604
Speaker 2: a powerful executive and Biden I think did little to

260
00:14:26,644 --> 00:14:30,284
Speaker 2: diminish the power of the executive, by the way, and

261
00:14:30,404 --> 00:14:33,884
Speaker 2: so and so, Yeah, let's actually have a fucking plan

262
00:14:34,004 --> 00:14:36,884
Speaker 2: of things that we can actually accomplish, some of which

263
00:14:36,924 --> 00:14:41,244
Speaker 2: are intended as free roles. We would use a poker term, right,

264
00:14:41,324 --> 00:14:43,444
Speaker 2: Like if you were if you want to remove the

265
00:14:43,444 --> 00:14:46,524
Speaker 2: birthright citizenship stuff, right, what's the.

266
00:14:46,524 --> 00:14:48,684
Speaker 3: Chance the court will have pulled that.

267
00:14:49,044 --> 00:14:51,244
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm guessing ten percent or something, right,

268
00:14:51,324 --> 00:14:54,364
Speaker 2: or maybe there's another ten percent chance of some halfway

269
00:14:54,364 --> 00:14:54,724
Speaker 2: in the door.

270
00:14:54,764 --> 00:14:55,764
Speaker 3: But it doesn't cost you.

271
00:14:55,724 --> 00:14:59,444
Speaker 2: Anything, really, right, you get liberal tiers and liberal outrage

272
00:14:59,524 --> 00:15:01,764
Speaker 2: no matter what you distract them from.

273
00:15:02,444 --> 00:15:06,164
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the distraction is part of it.

274
00:15:06,204 --> 00:15:09,364
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, Like, just try to overwhelm people, right,

275
00:15:09,484 --> 00:15:13,124
Speaker 1: and you throw stuff that is just blatantly unconstitutional in there,

276
00:15:13,164 --> 00:15:16,204
Speaker 1: But then like you're putting out all of these fires,

277
00:15:16,644 --> 00:15:19,084
Speaker 1: and it does prevent you from doing something else. I

278
00:15:19,164 --> 00:15:22,644
Speaker 1: have a question for you, Nate, on another topic that

279
00:15:22,684 --> 00:15:25,564
Speaker 1: we've talked about many times on the show pe Doom.

280
00:15:26,044 --> 00:15:30,124
Speaker 1: So because of what Trump has kind of done with

281
00:15:30,444 --> 00:15:32,884
Speaker 1: AI in his first twenty four hours. So first he

282
00:15:33,284 --> 00:15:36,364
Speaker 1: rescented the executive order that Biden had put into place,

283
00:15:36,604 --> 00:15:40,164
Speaker 1: right that had asked big AI companies to loop in

284
00:15:40,204 --> 00:15:42,364
Speaker 1: the US government, right and to kind of tell them

285
00:15:42,444 --> 00:15:45,124
Speaker 1: be transparent with what they were doing with the technologies,

286
00:15:45,124 --> 00:15:47,564
Speaker 1: et cetera. That no longer has to happen. And because

287
00:15:47,604 --> 00:15:50,564
Speaker 1: he does seem to be on like team Yay, let's go.

288
00:15:51,284 --> 00:15:54,804
Speaker 1: And even though Musk is close with him as of now,

289
00:15:54,924 --> 00:15:57,164
Speaker 1: you know, it seems like Musk is right now more

290
00:15:57,204 --> 00:15:59,924
Speaker 1: trying to placate Trump and stay in a position of

291
00:15:59,964 --> 00:16:03,724
Speaker 1: power than he is necessarily trying to kind of counteract

292
00:16:03,804 --> 00:16:06,044
Speaker 1: him and say no, no, like this isn't good because

293
00:16:06,084 --> 00:16:08,004
Speaker 1: he you know, he didn't say as much as bad

294
00:16:08,044 --> 00:16:10,964
Speaker 1: and I about the electric vehicle stuff either, So it

295
00:16:10,964 --> 00:16:12,924
Speaker 1: seems like he's trying to be kind of on team

296
00:16:12,964 --> 00:16:16,884
Speaker 1: Trump right now. So I think they're My question for

297
00:16:16,964 --> 00:16:19,724
Speaker 1: you is what do we think the p doom probabilities

298
00:16:19,724 --> 00:16:22,724
Speaker 1: from Aire, Like, are there things that he's going to

299
00:16:22,804 --> 00:16:26,164
Speaker 1: do in the next four years? Right in terms of

300
00:16:26,164 --> 00:16:28,444
Speaker 1: of his policies that are going to be much more

301
00:16:28,484 --> 00:16:33,324
Speaker 1: difficult to roll back, much more difficult too to talk about.

302
00:16:33,324 --> 00:16:33,884
Speaker 1: What do you think.

303
00:16:34,804 --> 00:16:40,324
Speaker 2: Look, I mean Elon won this big fight against Trump

304
00:16:40,844 --> 00:16:45,044
Speaker 2: or against MAGA on H one B or whichever visas

305
00:16:45,044 --> 00:16:50,604
Speaker 2: on skilled immigration visas. I guess the kind of narrow

306
00:16:51,044 --> 00:16:53,204
Speaker 2: issue is, Yeah, Look, I think Trump is probably good

307
00:16:53,204 --> 00:16:56,164
Speaker 2: for technology growth in the US relative to Democrats, maybe

308
00:16:56,204 --> 00:16:58,844
Speaker 2: with if tariffs don't interfere with that too much, right,

309
00:16:58,844 --> 00:17:00,084
Speaker 2: But that also probably means.

310
00:16:59,844 --> 00:17:02,084
Speaker 3: That, Yeah, I think I think P doom risk is

311
00:17:02,164 --> 00:17:03,684
Speaker 3: up a little bit.

312
00:17:03,724 --> 00:17:05,724
Speaker 2: And I also wonder whether this is going to polarize

313
00:17:05,724 --> 00:17:08,884
Speaker 2: because actually, if you look at public opinion data, people

314
00:17:08,924 --> 00:17:11,964
Speaker 2: are in the abstract pretty worried about P DOOM. I

315
00:17:11,964 --> 00:17:15,244
Speaker 2: think we maybe overestimate kind of how much the average

316
00:17:15,284 --> 00:17:18,084
Speaker 2: person thinks or knows about this. But but if if

317
00:17:18,084 --> 00:17:20,964
Speaker 2: we reach even I mean Sam Melton's talking about how

318
00:17:20,964 --> 00:17:24,524
Speaker 2: we're going to achieve artificial general intelligence at some point

319
00:17:24,524 --> 00:17:26,444
Speaker 2: in the next three is years or something, right like,

320
00:17:27,404 --> 00:17:29,564
Speaker 2: I imagine this is going to become a pretty big

321
00:17:30,324 --> 00:17:36,884
Speaker 2: campaign issue in twenty twenty eight. And if it polarizes,

322
00:17:36,924 --> 00:17:39,164
Speaker 2: maybe Dems are the parties saying we are the ones

323
00:17:39,204 --> 00:17:42,124
Speaker 2: who have to restrain AI. And like, I think it

324
00:17:42,164 --> 00:17:44,604
Speaker 2: could actually be kind of like a popular message, right,

325
00:17:44,604 --> 00:17:45,884
Speaker 2: I mean, what's the path forward here?

326
00:17:45,964 --> 00:17:46,124
Speaker 3: Right?

327
00:17:46,204 --> 00:17:51,204
Speaker 2: Is it like oligarch versus oligarch or is it oligarch

328
00:17:51,324 --> 00:17:53,164
Speaker 2: versus everyone else? And Democrats have to, like I think

329
00:17:53,204 --> 00:17:56,924
Speaker 2: pick one of those two lanes over a timeframe of

330
00:17:57,044 --> 00:17:59,964
Speaker 2: like of like ten or something years, right, because it

331
00:18:00,044 --> 00:18:04,764
Speaker 2: is absolutely true. And again I don't think these oligarchs

332
00:18:04,844 --> 00:18:06,524
Speaker 2: could go on a case by case basis, right. The

333
00:18:06,564 --> 00:18:09,844
Speaker 2: super rich Silicon Valley people, I don't think they're dumb

334
00:18:09,844 --> 00:18:13,044
Speaker 2: people or bad people necessarily, right, But they have economic interests,

335
00:18:13,044 --> 00:18:17,324
Speaker 2: and they have a philosopher's actually quite predictable in some

336
00:18:17,364 --> 00:18:19,724
Speaker 2: ways and transparent, and they've kind of realized now that

337
00:18:19,764 --> 00:18:22,764
Speaker 2: we have ways to like actuate our interests.

338
00:18:22,844 --> 00:18:25,724
Speaker 3: Right. So there are various questions here, you know.

339
00:18:25,724 --> 00:18:28,124
Speaker 2: One question is whether you know there are a lot

340
00:18:28,124 --> 00:18:31,524
Speaker 2: of Silicon Valley types who are either liberal liberals or

341
00:18:31,524 --> 00:18:34,164
Speaker 2: like classic liberals, right, or just might say, okay, well,

342
00:18:34,164 --> 00:18:37,844
Speaker 2: maybe I want to try to like rekindle this Obama

343
00:18:37,924 --> 00:18:41,804
Speaker 2: era alliance in the Democrat Party with you know, with

344
00:18:41,924 --> 00:18:44,164
Speaker 2: the tech sector where you know, two thousand and eight

345
00:18:44,204 --> 00:18:47,644
Speaker 2: was the Facebook elections supposedly whatever else and all the

346
00:18:47,684 --> 00:18:49,964
Speaker 2: Obama people worked at Facebook and vice versa and things

347
00:18:49,964 --> 00:18:52,524
Speaker 2: like that. You know, but you kind of have to

348
00:18:52,564 --> 00:18:55,404
Speaker 2: pick one, right, if you're Democrats, you should either be

349
00:18:56,444 --> 00:19:03,044
Speaker 2: criticizing the oligarchs and AI by twenty twenty eight will

350
00:19:03,084 --> 00:19:06,444
Speaker 2: become a tangible issue there in which public opinion might

351
00:19:06,484 --> 00:19:08,004
Speaker 2: be on your side.

352
00:19:08,284 --> 00:19:08,764
Speaker 3: Maybe climate.

353
00:19:08,804 --> 00:19:11,484
Speaker 2: I think it's a little more complicated, right, but because

354
00:19:11,524 --> 00:19:14,044
Speaker 2: they tend to be a little bit more sensitive to

355
00:19:14,084 --> 00:19:15,804
Speaker 2: climate change. Or do you want to like draft your

356
00:19:15,804 --> 00:19:18,564
Speaker 2: own Mark Cuban or dissident or like who knows how

357
00:19:18,564 --> 00:19:22,404
Speaker 2: long Elon's relationship with Trump will will last? Right, maybe

358
00:19:22,444 --> 00:19:26,804
Speaker 2: Steve Bannon wins that fight eventually. Vivic Ramaswami has already

359
00:19:26,804 --> 00:19:28,444
Speaker 2: been ousted from STOG.

360
00:19:29,204 --> 00:19:29,924
Speaker 1: That was fast.

361
00:19:30,964 --> 00:19:33,204
Speaker 2: Well, he made this very cringe tweet about how like

362
00:19:33,484 --> 00:19:35,284
Speaker 2: you got to pull you know what was his reference,

363
00:19:35,324 --> 00:19:37,404
Speaker 2: like saved by the bell and how nerds don't get

364
00:19:37,524 --> 00:19:39,804
Speaker 2: enough respect and like yeah, it's like never heard from again.

365
00:19:39,804 --> 00:19:42,084
Speaker 2: He made he's running for governor of Ohio, so maybe

366
00:19:42,084 --> 00:19:43,524
Speaker 2: he'll governor of Ohio. I think you may never be

367
00:19:43,564 --> 00:19:46,244
Speaker 2: heard from again. It was just such a cringey tweet,

368
00:19:46,324 --> 00:19:49,124
Speaker 2: right that even Elon was like, bro, it's too much.

369
00:19:51,204 --> 00:19:54,124
Speaker 3: But Democrats have to like pick a lane.

370
00:19:54,244 --> 00:19:56,004
Speaker 2: And I think the stuff about the fact that there

371
00:19:56,084 --> 00:20:00,604
Speaker 2: is this concentration of wealth and power is like, is

372
00:20:00,724 --> 00:20:03,684
Speaker 2: quite it's true, right, I mean, it's a it's true that,

373
00:20:03,804 --> 00:20:07,124
Speaker 2: like and again I'm a fucking neoliberal capitalist, right, but

374
00:20:07,164 --> 00:20:11,484
Speaker 2: it is true that that more and more wealth and

375
00:20:11,564 --> 00:20:15,084
Speaker 2: power is being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, especially

376
00:20:15,124 --> 00:20:17,604
Speaker 2: at the very very very very very top end.

377
00:20:17,764 --> 00:20:17,924
Speaker 3: Right.

378
00:20:18,324 --> 00:20:21,284
Speaker 2: The ten most, literally the ten most are twenty richest

379
00:20:21,284 --> 00:20:23,884
Speaker 2: and most powerful people in the world, and they're increasingly

380
00:20:23,924 --> 00:20:27,284
Speaker 2: actuating their political interests, right, Like, I think that line

381
00:20:27,324 --> 00:20:34,164
Speaker 2: of critique is more promising electorally and fresher and maybe

382
00:20:34,244 --> 00:20:36,364
Speaker 2: truer than just calling Trump a fascist.

383
00:20:36,844 --> 00:20:37,044
Speaker 3: Right.

384
00:20:37,204 --> 00:20:40,484
Speaker 2: If that didn't work that, I mean Joe Biden thought, oh,

385
00:20:40,764 --> 00:20:43,044
Speaker 2: January sixth was so bad, We'll just have to I

386
00:20:43,084 --> 00:20:45,084
Speaker 2: don't know what voice I'm doing here, but like, but

387
00:20:45,204 --> 00:20:50,124
Speaker 2: that just screaming democracy, democracy, democracy, right, Like, that didn't work.

388
00:20:50,164 --> 00:20:51,924
Speaker 2: People are sick and tired of that. And the fact

389
00:20:51,924 --> 00:20:55,124
Speaker 2: is that the democratic system delivered a verdict that people

390
00:20:55,124 --> 00:20:57,964
Speaker 2: are sick and tired of these candidates Democrats are nominating,

391
00:20:59,284 --> 00:21:01,724
Speaker 2: and Democrats can rebound for that system, and I think

392
00:21:01,764 --> 00:21:03,484
Speaker 2: they probably will in twenty twenty six, I think there

393
00:21:03,484 --> 00:21:06,084
Speaker 2: could be a bad mid term for Trump. This global

394
00:21:06,124 --> 00:21:08,844
Speaker 2: anti incumbent mood could easily come back around to bite him.

395
00:21:08,844 --> 00:21:11,884
Speaker 2: You know, I think is kind of like the efficacy

396
00:21:11,924 --> 00:21:15,924
Speaker 2: of governance, right, Like, you know, Democrats are the expert

397
00:21:15,924 --> 00:21:19,804
Speaker 2: class and and fucked lots of things up, right, It

398
00:21:19,804 --> 00:21:23,844
Speaker 2: doesn't mean to me that like the non expert diletant

399
00:21:23,924 --> 00:21:26,364
Speaker 2: class is going to do any better necessarily, right, Like

400
00:21:26,404 --> 00:21:29,924
Speaker 2: maybe on every third maybe one out of three things, yes, right,

401
00:21:31,604 --> 00:21:33,484
Speaker 2: maybe four out of ten things? Right, that still us

402
00:21:33,484 --> 00:21:35,164
Speaker 2: there are six out of ten things that might break

403
00:21:35,684 --> 00:21:38,804
Speaker 2: and might break badly. The pandemic happened under Trump's watch,

404
00:21:38,804 --> 00:21:40,244
Speaker 2: you know, though I think he deserves more credit for

405
00:21:40,284 --> 00:21:46,044
Speaker 2: like Operation Warp Speed and the first stimulus package. You know, Look,

406
00:21:46,124 --> 00:21:49,524
Speaker 2: if you look at American history, there are big catastrophic

407
00:21:49,564 --> 00:21:53,644
Speaker 2: fuck ups and that's what produced just back, particularly in

408
00:21:53,684 --> 00:21:55,004
Speaker 2: a liberal direction.

409
00:21:55,164 --> 00:21:59,284
Speaker 3: Right, So the Iraq War was one of.

410
00:21:59,244 --> 00:22:02,724
Speaker 2: Those, plus the financial crisis that produces a huge shift

411
00:22:02,764 --> 00:22:09,124
Speaker 2: toward a guy named Brockosine. Obama becoming president for two terms.

412
00:22:08,604 --> 00:22:23,644
Speaker 1: And we'll be back right after this. This start of

413
00:22:23,684 --> 00:22:26,084
Speaker 1: Trump two point zero, we're in a very very different

414
00:22:26,084 --> 00:22:32,124
Speaker 1: place economically politically than we were in Trump one point zero, right,

415
00:22:32,604 --> 00:22:37,324
Speaker 1: So we have the inflation and kind of recessionary kind

416
00:22:37,324 --> 00:22:41,044
Speaker 1: of things and high interest rates that we didn't have

417
00:22:41,804 --> 00:22:44,924
Speaker 1: back when he assumed power. The economy that he's inheriting

418
00:22:45,044 --> 00:22:48,124
Speaker 1: is in much worse shape. And as you saw by

419
00:22:48,124 --> 00:22:51,644
Speaker 1: the way he didn't immediately like say tariffs, tariffs, tariffs,

420
00:22:51,764 --> 00:22:54,924
Speaker 1: even though he said, now Mexico and Canada, if you're leading,

421
00:22:55,244 --> 00:22:58,044
Speaker 1: you're letting immigrants into our countries, I'm going to put

422
00:22:58,084 --> 00:23:00,764
Speaker 1: tariffs on you, and I will. You know, I'll see

423
00:23:00,804 --> 00:23:04,724
Speaker 1: what else happens. But it will be very interesting to

424
00:23:04,844 --> 00:23:08,244
Speaker 1: see because one of his promises was, oh, you know,

425
00:23:08,324 --> 00:23:11,404
Speaker 1: will we'll make everyone more prosperous, and we're going to

426
00:23:11,444 --> 00:23:14,644
Speaker 1: do all of these different things. But that might actually

427
00:23:14,684 --> 00:23:18,364
Speaker 1: be a moment where as we've talked about before, incumbents

428
00:23:18,404 --> 00:23:22,964
Speaker 1: have been blamed for kind of this global economic malaise.

429
00:23:23,284 --> 00:23:25,964
Speaker 1: But he's going to be the incumbent. And unless you know,

430
00:23:26,124 --> 00:23:28,164
Speaker 1: it really depends on what we see in the next

431
00:23:28,204 --> 00:23:31,644
Speaker 1: four years in terms of economic policies in terms of

432
00:23:31,764 --> 00:23:35,124
Speaker 1: how the average person feels when they go shopping. So

433
00:23:35,324 --> 00:23:37,644
Speaker 1: I just want to kind of make sure that that

434
00:23:37,844 --> 00:23:40,244
Speaker 1: we understand that as we as we look at the

435
00:23:40,244 --> 00:23:43,284
Speaker 1: next four years. But I do completely agree with you

436
00:23:43,404 --> 00:23:46,364
Speaker 1: that I actually think it's much more promising and very

437
00:23:46,404 --> 00:23:52,364
Speaker 1: accurate for the Democrats to attack the oligarchical shift in

438
00:23:52,404 --> 00:23:55,924
Speaker 1: the in the US government, because it is I wouldn't

439
00:23:55,924 --> 00:24:00,084
Speaker 1: say it's unprecedented, but it's unprecedented in modern times, and

440
00:24:00,404 --> 00:24:04,244
Speaker 1: it is very eyebrow raising when you see kind of

441
00:24:04,844 --> 00:24:07,884
Speaker 1: who you know, who is in, who is next, who

442
00:24:07,924 --> 00:24:11,804
Speaker 1: is at Trump's side as we kind of enter this

443
00:24:11,884 --> 00:24:16,204
Speaker 1: era and think through the implications of that for the

444
00:24:16,244 --> 00:24:21,164
Speaker 1: common person, right for your just like normal voter who

445
00:24:21,244 --> 00:24:25,604
Speaker 1: just wants to live a normal life. And I don't

446
00:24:25,604 --> 00:24:28,964
Speaker 1: think that people have necessarily thought that through, but I

447
00:24:29,004 --> 00:24:31,324
Speaker 1: think it will be if Democrats can seize upon it.

448
00:24:31,524 --> 00:24:34,364
Speaker 1: I think it could be a way to differentiate and

449
00:24:34,364 --> 00:24:37,364
Speaker 1: get people actually excited. Because, by the way, even if

450
00:24:37,484 --> 00:24:39,924
Speaker 1: a lot of what Trump has done is fascist, and

451
00:24:39,964 --> 00:24:41,764
Speaker 1: you know, we don't have to go into it, but

452
00:24:41,804 --> 00:24:45,884
Speaker 1: we have the Hile Hitler salute form Elon Musk controversy.

453
00:24:46,284 --> 00:24:48,324
Speaker 1: But as you said, that hasn't worked.

454
00:24:48,644 --> 00:24:51,364
Speaker 2: No, it hasn't worked, and it's because it's fucking stupid, right, Like,

455
00:24:51,844 --> 00:24:53,844
Speaker 2: out of all these things, I mean, how many executive

456
00:24:53,924 --> 00:24:57,324
Speaker 2: orders did Trump issue in the past twenty four I

457
00:24:57,324 --> 00:24:59,324
Speaker 2: guess twenty six hours and we're taping this a lot,

458
00:25:00,684 --> 00:25:04,764
Speaker 2: Like you know, he repealed the Biden Ai executive I mean,

459
00:25:04,804 --> 00:25:08,764
Speaker 2: like focus on shit that, like, I mean, don't repeat

460
00:25:08,764 --> 00:25:11,404
Speaker 2: the mistakes of like of eight years ago.

461
00:25:11,484 --> 00:25:12,564
Speaker 3: The thing that wasn't a mistake.

462
00:25:12,604 --> 00:25:14,204
Speaker 2: I mean, you have like the women's markets in like

463
00:25:14,284 --> 00:25:16,804
Speaker 2: organized opposition, Like that seems to be like something you

464
00:25:16,804 --> 00:25:20,324
Speaker 2: should do anytime you're the opposition party. I'm like, who's

465
00:25:20,364 --> 00:25:22,564
Speaker 2: in charge of the Democratic Party right now? I mean,

466
00:25:23,764 --> 00:25:25,444
Speaker 2: you know who's the leader of the Democratic Party right now?

467
00:25:25,484 --> 00:25:26,244
Speaker 2: Right Barack Obama?

468
00:25:26,284 --> 00:25:27,404
Speaker 3: I guess kind of.

469
00:25:28,964 --> 00:25:29,404
Speaker 1: Beats me.

470
00:25:30,204 --> 00:25:31,564
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it requires.

471
00:25:31,204 --> 00:25:36,084
Speaker 2: I mean, the Trump people spent more time strategizing for

472
00:25:36,204 --> 00:25:38,964
Speaker 2: this moment, and I guess that makes it easier when

473
00:25:40,084 --> 00:25:42,004
Speaker 2: you know it's Trump's player the highway and the GOP

474
00:25:42,324 --> 00:25:44,844
Speaker 2: right where there's no no kind of equivalent figure in

475
00:25:44,924 --> 00:25:50,004
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party. But like, look, ordinarily there would be

476
00:25:50,044 --> 00:25:56,004
Speaker 2: a strong case for for mean reversion, meaning there are

477
00:25:56,044 --> 00:26:00,644
Speaker 2: all these ways from the effectiveness of governance to overreach.

478
00:26:00,644 --> 00:26:01,964
Speaker 2: I mean, we talked a little bit about kind of

479
00:26:02,004 --> 00:26:06,244
Speaker 2: like pent up recess ladies away for a few minutes,

480
00:26:06,324 --> 00:26:07,124
Speaker 2: kind of frustration.

481
00:26:07,764 --> 00:26:09,484
Speaker 3: I think there might only be.

482
00:26:11,004 --> 00:26:15,764
Speaker 2: So much tolerance for beating up on immigrants and trans

483
00:26:15,804 --> 00:26:18,604
Speaker 2: people and kind of once the needle moves on some

484
00:26:18,724 --> 00:26:22,204
Speaker 2: of these issues, then like then it will become kind

485
00:26:22,204 --> 00:26:24,764
Speaker 2: of gross and like tiresome and things like that. Right,

486
00:26:24,764 --> 00:26:27,084
Speaker 2: I think there might be a limited tolerance for that

487
00:26:28,004 --> 00:26:31,724
Speaker 2: with some corrections of like free speech and the fucking misinformation.

488
00:26:32,524 --> 00:26:34,724
Speaker 3: People, right, like fuck them.

489
00:26:35,364 --> 00:26:37,804
Speaker 2: But like I think, you know, I don't think America

490
00:26:37,844 --> 00:26:40,004
Speaker 2: went and we moved back to the nineteen fifties or

491
00:26:40,004 --> 00:26:42,924
Speaker 2: something when it comes to how we view sexuality and

492
00:26:43,244 --> 00:26:44,884
Speaker 2: gender and things like that.

493
00:26:45,004 --> 00:26:47,124
Speaker 3: Right, But.

494
00:26:48,604 --> 00:26:50,484
Speaker 2: You think there might be some mean reversion between like

495
00:26:50,524 --> 00:26:52,844
Speaker 2: the fact that Democrats are competitive and all these elections, Right,

496
00:26:52,884 --> 00:26:55,964
Speaker 2: No Democrats lost a popular vote by more than two

497
00:26:56,044 --> 00:26:58,484
Speaker 2: and a half points since nineteen eighty eight, Right, so

498
00:26:58,564 --> 00:27:01,164
Speaker 2: every year that's been a you know, within a field goal,

499
00:27:01,204 --> 00:27:02,644
Speaker 2: and they've lost some of those, and one some of

500
00:27:02,684 --> 00:27:07,244
Speaker 2: those Democrats will probably take over the Senate, excuse me,

501
00:27:07,284 --> 00:27:09,964
Speaker 2: the House, probably not the Senate. In twenty twenty six,

502
00:27:10,044 --> 00:27:11,524
Speaker 2: they own a lot of these governorships.

503
00:27:11,564 --> 00:27:12,044
Speaker 3: They have.

504
00:27:13,404 --> 00:27:16,844
Speaker 2: A bench of younger governors who were all better than

505
00:27:16,844 --> 00:27:21,004
Speaker 2: the last three people they nominated for president. Frankly and yeah,

506
00:27:21,044 --> 00:27:24,444
Speaker 2: and now if you have this continuous anti incumbent sentiment,

507
00:27:24,444 --> 00:27:28,884
Speaker 2: then that benefits Democrats in twenty twenty or twenty God

508
00:27:28,964 --> 00:27:32,324
Speaker 2: damn it so confusing, so many years twenty eight.

509
00:27:32,324 --> 00:27:35,564
Speaker 1: I know, I know everyone's timeline is fucked up, But like, I.

510
00:27:37,124 --> 00:27:39,084
Speaker 2: Look, if you have work, hey, let's let's run back

511
00:27:39,124 --> 00:27:41,564
Speaker 2: the playbook, but nominate a better candy at the Kamala Harris,

512
00:27:41,564 --> 00:27:44,044
Speaker 2: and this time, inflation and the fuck ups of the

513
00:27:44,044 --> 00:27:47,644
Speaker 2: White House help us and not hurt us.

514
00:27:47,724 --> 00:27:48,604
Speaker 3: I mean, there's.

515
00:27:48,404 --> 00:27:52,044
Speaker 2: A fifty to fifty chance that works, maybe better than

516
00:27:52,204 --> 00:27:55,124
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. But I don't know if that actually

517
00:27:55,244 --> 00:27:58,804
Speaker 2: kind of like wins the culture war or the political

518
00:27:58,844 --> 00:28:00,124
Speaker 2: war in the long run.

519
00:28:00,684 --> 00:28:04,644
Speaker 1: Really well, I think that the pendulum shift is an

520
00:28:04,684 --> 00:28:07,204
Speaker 1: interesting way of looking at it because to go back

521
00:28:07,244 --> 00:28:10,244
Speaker 1: to kind of where we started the show, which is

522
00:28:10,644 --> 00:28:14,004
Speaker 1: kind of part of this irrational exuberance that that Trump

523
00:28:14,084 --> 00:28:18,204
Speaker 1: is exhibiting. He may push things too far, even with

524
00:28:18,284 --> 00:28:20,844
Speaker 1: the tech stuff like we saw, you know, he has

525
00:28:21,524 --> 00:28:23,604
Speaker 1: in the last week, we've seen the launch of a

526
00:28:23,604 --> 00:28:28,484
Speaker 1: Trump meme coin and a Milania meme coin, and even

527
00:28:28,524 --> 00:28:31,684
Speaker 1: the crypto community is like, dude, right, like, what is

528
00:28:31,724 --> 00:28:34,844
Speaker 1: going on here? This is not a good look. This

529
00:28:34,884 --> 00:28:40,284
Speaker 1: looks like very scammy, icky type of thing. And rather

530
00:28:40,324 --> 00:28:44,404
Speaker 1: than being like yeah, you know, you go, they're like, wait,

531
00:28:44,484 --> 00:28:47,444
Speaker 1: hold on a second, right, like this might be a

532
00:28:47,484 --> 00:28:50,244
Speaker 1: step too far. And these were some of his biggest supporters.

533
00:28:50,884 --> 00:28:53,524
Speaker 1: And so if he keeps kind of doing things like this,

534
00:28:53,604 --> 00:28:57,644
Speaker 1: if he keeps attacking immigrants the way he has and

535
00:28:57,964 --> 00:29:00,484
Speaker 1: attacking you know, transgender like oh there are only men

536
00:29:00,524 --> 00:29:03,324
Speaker 1: and women, all of these things where he's really just

537
00:29:03,444 --> 00:29:07,004
Speaker 1: pushing it way too far, including things that you mentioned

538
00:29:07,084 --> 00:29:11,084
Speaker 1: like oh, no more tampons in the Facebook bathroom, which like,

539
00:29:11,124 --> 00:29:13,524
Speaker 1: no matter who you are, you're like what the fuck? Right, Like,

540
00:29:13,604 --> 00:29:16,204
Speaker 1: what in the world are we been talking about? Right?

541
00:29:16,244 --> 00:29:20,124
Speaker 1: I do think that maybe then people will start finally reacting.

542
00:29:20,324 --> 00:29:24,684
Speaker 1: Maybe not right, I'm choosing to believe that humanity will

543
00:29:24,684 --> 00:29:25,564
Speaker 1: react against.

544
00:29:25,284 --> 00:29:28,444
Speaker 2: I mean, you did have a lot of under the

545
00:29:28,444 --> 00:29:32,364
Speaker 2: Democratic presidents, but actually more under Biden than Obama. Right,

546
00:29:32,444 --> 00:29:36,404
Speaker 2: you did have a lot of like officials government spaces

547
00:29:36,444 --> 00:29:40,044
Speaker 2: and corporate spaces. Because Silicon Valley we had thought of

548
00:29:40,124 --> 00:29:43,164
Speaker 2: as being quite left wing. I think it never really was.

549
00:29:43,164 --> 00:29:45,764
Speaker 2: We can talk about that, right, but you did have

550
00:29:45,804 --> 00:29:49,124
Speaker 2: a lot of kind of policy changes that people felt

551
00:29:49,364 --> 00:29:52,764
Speaker 2: like were superimposed on them. And then what further than

552
00:29:52,804 --> 00:29:58,484
Speaker 2: public opinion might right, usually you think that like, you know,

553
00:29:58,684 --> 00:30:02,484
Speaker 2: corporate institutions are more centrist, but you know, on a

554
00:30:02,484 --> 00:30:04,364
Speaker 2: lot of these issues, and they were pretty far to

555
00:30:04,404 --> 00:30:08,244
Speaker 2: the left during the latter years the Biden term, And

556
00:30:08,324 --> 00:30:11,044
Speaker 2: so I think I think the GOP has a little

557
00:30:11,044 --> 00:30:12,564
Speaker 2: bit more mileage and usual of that because you're kind

558
00:30:12,604 --> 00:30:14,924
Speaker 2: of rolling back from a point where like it was

559
00:30:14,924 --> 00:30:17,764
Speaker 2: not reflecting public opinion to begin with. But like, at

560
00:30:17,764 --> 00:30:19,524
Speaker 2: the same time, though, I mean, look at so why

561
00:30:19,564 --> 00:30:25,204
Speaker 2: did Biden fail? And there are a few themes here.

562
00:30:25,204 --> 00:30:27,924
Speaker 2: I have another article about this. What is he was

563
00:30:27,964 --> 00:30:31,964
Speaker 2: seventy eight years old. Trump is seventy eight years old

564
00:30:31,964 --> 00:30:34,964
Speaker 2: at the start of his second term. You know, unlike

565
00:30:35,164 --> 00:30:38,644
Speaker 2: fortunately for Trump, he can't run for a third term

566
00:30:38,724 --> 00:30:41,444
Speaker 2: unless he tries to get the constitution changed, and so

567
00:30:41,564 --> 00:30:44,564
Speaker 2: and so there's not that temptation, right, but like, but

568
00:30:44,724 --> 00:30:47,604
Speaker 2: you know, you have issues of like performance and cognitive

569
00:30:47,604 --> 00:30:49,484
Speaker 2: fitness that I think are valid to ask of any

570
00:30:49,924 --> 00:30:53,444
Speaker 2: seventy eight years old too. Biden thinks he has this big,

571
00:30:53,444 --> 00:30:57,084
Speaker 2: sweeping mandate, and he does win a majority of vot

572
00:30:57,084 --> 00:30:59,444
Speaker 2: which Trump didn't in a wider popular vote margin about

573
00:30:59,444 --> 00:31:05,084
Speaker 2: the same electoral college. But it was kind of conditional, right.

574
00:31:05,124 --> 00:31:06,564
Speaker 2: It was kind of like, oh, the last guy really

575
00:31:06,564 --> 00:31:08,564
Speaker 2: fucked up, especially in COVID, and so he kind of

576
00:31:09,124 --> 00:31:11,884
Speaker 2: over reached and overread that mandate. And three he was

577
00:31:11,964 --> 00:31:16,524
Speaker 2: kind of like bogged down by lots of policy commitments

578
00:31:16,524 --> 00:31:18,804
Speaker 2: to groups who were acting in their own interests and

579
00:31:18,844 --> 00:31:21,924
Speaker 2: not in the long term interest of the country or

580
00:31:22,004 --> 00:31:22,884
Speaker 2: a Biden's party.

581
00:31:22,964 --> 00:31:23,084
Speaker 3: Right.

582
00:31:23,164 --> 00:31:26,644
Speaker 2: Just last week, Biden claimed that we have a new

583
00:31:26,804 --> 00:31:31,364
Speaker 2: twenty eighth amendment, right, this equal rights amendment, which was

584
00:31:31,404 --> 00:31:34,564
Speaker 2: simple amendment that just kind of said, okay, we're supposally

585
00:31:34,564 --> 00:31:36,924
Speaker 2: saying that women are equal to men, right, I don't

586
00:31:36,924 --> 00:31:40,764
Speaker 2: know the exact terminology, I mean basically just asserted, and

587
00:31:40,844 --> 00:31:44,124
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris's account asserted that, oh, now it's the law

588
00:31:44,164 --> 00:31:45,604
Speaker 2: of the land, when it very much isn't.

589
00:31:45,684 --> 00:31:45,804
Speaker 1: Right.

590
00:31:45,844 --> 00:31:48,204
Speaker 2: You'd have to go through a whole process with the

591
00:31:48,244 --> 00:31:52,724
Speaker 2: constitutional archivists to do this. Right, Congress in the nineteen

592
00:31:52,804 --> 00:31:57,564
Speaker 2: seventies I think, approved this era amendment. Then it went

593
00:31:57,564 --> 00:32:00,284
Speaker 2: to the states to ratify, and they sent a seven

594
00:32:00,364 --> 00:32:02,924
Speaker 2: year timeframe saying you have to have thirty seven I

595
00:32:02,924 --> 00:32:05,724
Speaker 2: think three quarters states, it is it thirty eighth then

596
00:32:07,164 --> 00:32:09,924
Speaker 2: ratify this within yeah, thirty seven and a half. Right,

597
00:32:10,004 --> 00:32:13,444
Speaker 2: So thirty eight thirty eight states must ratify this, and

598
00:32:13,484 --> 00:32:17,244
Speaker 2: I believe seven years, and they didn't get there. It

599
00:32:17,284 --> 00:32:22,244
Speaker 2: was like thirty six or something, right. A couple of

600
00:32:22,244 --> 00:32:27,764
Speaker 2: saints then rescinded their approval of it. Right, But then

601
00:32:27,844 --> 00:32:30,804
Speaker 2: later like Nevada and Virginia, like in the past five years,

602
00:32:30,804 --> 00:32:35,324
Speaker 2: approved this and so and so it's a radical judicial

603
00:32:35,404 --> 00:32:38,324
Speaker 2: overreach argument that, oh, well, actually this thing that Congress

604
00:32:38,364 --> 00:32:41,364
Speaker 2: put in the law that's overridden by other provisions of

605
00:32:41,364 --> 00:32:44,244
Speaker 2: the Constitution. Oh and by the way, by the way,

606
00:32:44,284 --> 00:32:47,764
Speaker 2: the fact that five or six states rescinded this, just

607
00:32:47,804 --> 00:32:51,004
Speaker 2: ignore that too, right, But this is something that like

608
00:32:51,404 --> 00:32:55,404
Speaker 2: you know, I would say, radical left groups that have

609
00:32:55,444 --> 00:32:57,724
Speaker 2: a different interpretation of the Constitution, we're pushing Biden to do.

610
00:32:57,804 --> 00:33:00,524
Speaker 3: And so it just looks fucking stupid your last week.

611
00:33:00,324 --> 00:33:03,204
Speaker 2: In office, right, you're like doing this, making this fake

612
00:33:03,204 --> 00:33:07,244
Speaker 2: amendment up and then pardoning your family.

613
00:33:09,444 --> 00:33:11,044
Speaker 3: I mean, what are what are we doing? Right?

614
00:33:11,084 --> 00:33:14,004
Speaker 2: Anyway, I'm on a on a Biden rant. But the

615
00:33:14,044 --> 00:33:18,484
Speaker 2: point is that like the overreach of like an old

616
00:33:19,324 --> 00:33:22,244
Speaker 2: president who has a lot of people who are pushing

617
00:33:22,244 --> 00:33:23,884
Speaker 2: for things and pulley for things in this limited.

618
00:33:23,604 --> 00:33:25,044
Speaker 3: Amount of bandwidth.

619
00:33:25,044 --> 00:33:27,684
Speaker 2: And and you know, and I watched Biden's speech from

620
00:33:27,684 --> 00:33:29,924
Speaker 2: four years ago, and like Trump kind of thought he

621
00:33:30,004 --> 00:33:31,644
Speaker 2: was this or Biden thought he was a savior.

622
00:33:31,684 --> 00:33:33,564
Speaker 3: Right, Oh, I've been this difficult time.

623
00:33:33,604 --> 00:33:37,684
Speaker 2: But I'll deliver justice from systemic racism on top of

624
00:33:37,724 --> 00:33:41,524
Speaker 2: solving the COVID pandemic and the economy, right and climate change.

625
00:33:41,524 --> 00:33:42,524
Speaker 3: I'm going to sell it, all right.

626
00:33:42,524 --> 00:33:44,564
Speaker 2: And Trump says the same thing, and he's like, well,

627
00:33:44,644 --> 00:33:46,644
Speaker 2: God saved me from that assassin's bullet. I was put

628
00:33:46,644 --> 00:33:49,404
Speaker 2: here for a reason. And then like and like, I

629
00:33:49,444 --> 00:33:53,404
Speaker 2: don't know, neither man is very introspective.

630
00:33:53,804 --> 00:33:57,244
Speaker 1: I would say, I want to clip your last thirty

631
00:33:57,284 --> 00:34:00,804
Speaker 1: seconds and then run it. If risky business still exists

632
00:34:00,804 --> 00:34:03,484
Speaker 1: in four years, which I hope it does, run it.

633
00:34:03,524 --> 00:34:06,204
Speaker 1: At the end of the Trump presidency because what you

634
00:34:06,364 --> 00:34:10,444
Speaker 1: just said basically could be exactly like word for word.

635
00:34:10,684 --> 00:34:13,484
Speaker 1: You know how Trump is acting right now, seventy eight

636
00:34:13,564 --> 00:34:16,244
Speaker 1: year old man thinks he has you know, this mandate

637
00:34:16,364 --> 00:34:19,804
Speaker 1: is going to be overreaching and doing all of these things.

638
00:34:19,804 --> 00:34:22,244
Speaker 1: And I really want to see kind of how we'll

639
00:34:22,244 --> 00:34:25,364
Speaker 1: be able to cut and paste that. And I mean

640
00:34:25,444 --> 00:34:27,804
Speaker 1: I hope we will in the sense that I hope

641
00:34:27,844 --> 00:34:32,204
Speaker 1: that he doesn't manage to be kind of more effective

642
00:34:33,404 --> 00:34:37,084
Speaker 1: in some respects, if that makes sense. The courts are

643
00:34:37,484 --> 00:34:39,564
Speaker 1: something we've talked about a lot on the show, haven't

644
00:34:39,604 --> 00:34:41,844
Speaker 1: talked about today, don't need to talk about much today,

645
00:34:41,844 --> 00:34:44,404
Speaker 1: but that is something that has changed in the last

646
00:34:45,084 --> 00:34:45,764
Speaker 1: eight years.

647
00:34:46,084 --> 00:34:49,924
Speaker 2: Can you make a request of like the internet or

648
00:34:49,924 --> 00:34:50,964
Speaker 2: not the internet of the media?

649
00:34:51,084 --> 00:34:51,284
Speaker 3: Right?

650
00:34:54,044 --> 00:34:57,084
Speaker 2: I would love to have a people I can rely

651
00:34:57,204 --> 00:35:02,884
Speaker 2: on for Supreme Court analysis that I think are looking

652
00:35:02,964 --> 00:35:06,004
Speaker 2: at it from like an arm's length point of view,

653
00:35:06,084 --> 00:35:09,084
Speaker 2: because what tends to happen is a lot of you

654
00:35:09,084 --> 00:35:12,124
Speaker 2: know area, and they always think that like everything is

655
00:35:12,164 --> 00:35:15,804
Speaker 2: going to be ruled in a conservative direction. When as

656
00:35:15,804 --> 00:35:18,804
Speaker 2: a five to four court it showed, you know, it

657
00:35:19,004 --> 00:35:21,724
Speaker 2: legalized gay marriage, which by the way, is probably not

658
00:35:21,804 --> 00:35:25,284
Speaker 2: vulnerable because it was also legalized by by statute. There

659
00:35:25,284 --> 00:35:26,964
Speaker 2: are some things that so you know, as I've been

660
00:35:27,004 --> 00:35:30,284
Speaker 2: researching this, so NATO, Congress passed a law saying the

661
00:35:30,324 --> 00:35:34,164
Speaker 2: president can't pull out of NATO. Trump can and maybe

662
00:35:34,204 --> 00:35:37,564
Speaker 2: will try. But like that goes to litigation. But like

663
00:35:37,684 --> 00:35:42,604
Speaker 2: I would, I would I want more court analysis from

664
00:35:42,644 --> 00:35:46,124
Speaker 2: people who isn't who aren't super blue pilled and can

665
00:35:46,164 --> 00:35:51,044
Speaker 2: be quote unquote objective both about the law and about

666
00:35:51,124 --> 00:35:54,684
Speaker 2: kind of just how the court empirically behaves. I do

667
00:35:54,724 --> 00:35:56,844
Speaker 2: think the court will see it. I mean, look, if

668
00:35:57,204 --> 00:36:01,764
Speaker 2: it says, oh, there's some end around to birthright citizenship,

669
00:36:01,804 --> 00:36:06,564
Speaker 2: I mean that would be I think a very bad

670
00:36:07,244 --> 00:36:10,804
Speaker 2: sign because then it means there's like not really any restraint.

671
00:36:11,004 --> 00:36:13,084
Speaker 2: My priors are that you're going to have some a

672
00:36:13,084 --> 00:36:17,404
Speaker 2: fair amount of restraint. But I would love to read

673
00:36:17,404 --> 00:36:19,524
Speaker 2: I would love to have more go to sources on that.

674
00:36:20,724 --> 00:36:23,724
Speaker 1: So what I By the way, eighteen states while we've

675
00:36:23,764 --> 00:36:28,284
Speaker 1: been taping, have already sued to and to challenge the

676
00:36:28,284 --> 00:36:34,644
Speaker 1: Birthright Citizenship Executive Order, so that has already entered into

677
00:36:34,644 --> 00:36:36,604
Speaker 1: the legal system. We always knew that was going to

678
00:36:36,644 --> 00:36:39,244
Speaker 1: be the first thing right that was going to be challenged,

679
00:36:39,644 --> 00:36:43,564
Speaker 1: but so we are already we're seeing some of it.

680
00:36:44,084 --> 00:36:46,364
Speaker 1: And yes, I think that if the Supreme Court, by

681
00:36:46,404 --> 00:36:49,244
Speaker 1: the way, rules that there's a way around this, then

682
00:36:49,284 --> 00:36:51,964
Speaker 1: that's just going to kind of confirm everyone, including mine

683
00:36:52,644 --> 00:36:58,404
Speaker 1: worse fears that like this is just a complete sham, right,

684
00:36:58,564 --> 00:37:03,484
Speaker 1: So let's hope that they don't. But the legal system

685
00:37:03,524 --> 00:37:06,884
Speaker 1: has changed a lot in the last eight years, and

686
00:37:06,924 --> 00:37:09,604
Speaker 1: that is one of the guardrails that has become shaped. Ye,

687
00:37:10,364 --> 00:37:15,284
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's interesting that you obviously that

688
00:37:15,284 --> 00:37:17,924
Speaker 1: that you're pointing out that, well, gay marriage is protected,

689
00:37:17,964 --> 00:37:22,324
Speaker 1: but they're you know, there's no guarantee that things like

690
00:37:22,364 --> 00:37:25,244
Speaker 1: that will remain protected if we start going down the

691
00:37:25,284 --> 00:37:28,084
Speaker 1: slope of like let's get rid of all of these

692
00:37:28,164 --> 00:37:30,964
Speaker 1: rights that that have been protected for a while. So

693
00:37:31,844 --> 00:37:34,244
Speaker 1: I hope it it remains protected, but it's one of

694
00:37:34,284 --> 00:37:36,964
Speaker 1: these things where you know, I think we all have

695
00:37:37,044 --> 00:37:37,764
Speaker 1: to be on alert.

696
00:37:37,804 --> 00:37:40,004
Speaker 2: I guess part of what I'd say is like, I

697
00:37:40,084 --> 00:37:43,924
Speaker 2: you don't need slippery slope arguments because a people aren't

698
00:37:43,924 --> 00:37:46,884
Speaker 2: persuaded by them and be like, there's so much shit

699
00:37:46,924 --> 00:37:48,684
Speaker 2: happening right now, right and this is like yeah, I

700
00:37:48,724 --> 00:37:51,564
Speaker 2: mean this is, you know, because it's not going to

701
00:37:51,564 --> 00:37:56,884
Speaker 2: be a legislative driven presidency unless unless somehow Trump wins

702
00:37:56,964 --> 00:38:00,844
Speaker 2: more seeds at the midterms, which is pretty rare. The

703
00:38:00,884 --> 00:38:03,684
Speaker 2: big fights are happening right now. Right now is important

704
00:38:03,804 --> 00:38:06,644
Speaker 2: a moment as you'll ever have in the Trump administration

705
00:38:06,644 --> 00:38:09,244
Speaker 2: because it doesn't take time to build up a coalition

706
00:38:09,284 --> 00:38:13,004
Speaker 2: and things like that. He's acting as like a unitary executive.

707
00:38:13,004 --> 00:38:14,884
Speaker 2: It's probably some term that legal terms. So he's acting

708
00:38:14,964 --> 00:38:18,684
Speaker 2: is like a strong president right through executive order and

709
00:38:18,764 --> 00:38:23,324
Speaker 2: so and so. Look, I mean, look, you're also an environment.

710
00:38:23,324 --> 00:38:26,924
Speaker 2: People have incentives. I mean, I'm sure that the elon

711
00:38:27,044 --> 00:38:30,564
Speaker 2: making the some person called it it's an Italian salute,

712
00:38:30,604 --> 00:38:32,444
Speaker 2: you know, I know, I mean, probably a bad look,

713
00:38:32,484 --> 00:38:35,284
Speaker 2: but like don't don't waste bam with cycles on that.

714
00:38:35,324 --> 00:38:38,604
Speaker 2: But like I'm also sure that like alarmist Roman salute,

715
00:38:38,644 --> 00:38:43,124
Speaker 2: our producers are saying, hey, look just a Roman salute.

716
00:38:44,724 --> 00:38:47,924
Speaker 2: But like focus, but the incentives are not the focus.

717
00:38:47,924 --> 00:38:51,684
Speaker 2: The incentives are for your X feed or your blue

718
00:38:51,684 --> 00:38:54,044
Speaker 2: sky or your or your substack or whatever else.

719
00:38:54,364 --> 00:38:57,804
Speaker 1: The incentives are for outrage media, right, and I think

720
00:38:57,884 --> 00:39:00,364
Speaker 1: that we like we need to band together and instead

721
00:39:00,404 --> 00:39:02,764
Speaker 1: of the outrage media. As you said, focus try to

722
00:39:02,804 --> 00:39:06,204
Speaker 1: figure out what what what can what's happening, like, what

723
00:39:06,284 --> 00:39:09,844
Speaker 1: are the fights? How do you like make a logical argument,

724
00:39:09,924 --> 00:39:12,444
Speaker 1: and how do you kind of how do you what

725
00:39:12,444 --> 00:39:14,644
Speaker 1: do you do about it? As opposed to get outraged

726
00:39:14,644 --> 00:39:17,204
Speaker 1: at every one of these little things. Because Trump is

727
00:39:17,204 --> 00:39:20,324
Speaker 1: going to win that fight. Trump is incredibly good at

728
00:39:20,364 --> 00:39:23,284
Speaker 1: getting outrage media on his side, and right now he

729
00:39:23,364 --> 00:39:26,724
Speaker 1: has Musk on his side and must controls X, so

730
00:39:27,004 --> 00:39:29,964
Speaker 1: he is very good at kind of that thing that's

731
00:39:29,964 --> 00:39:33,164
Speaker 1: his forte right, the social media kind of outrage type

732
00:39:33,204 --> 00:39:35,884
Speaker 1: of thing. So I think not falling for that and

733
00:39:35,964 --> 00:39:38,644
Speaker 1: to remain focused, as in my mind, one of the

734
00:39:38,684 --> 00:39:41,844
Speaker 1: best things that we can do is how we allocate

735
00:39:41,884 --> 00:39:46,564
Speaker 1: our attention and then how we allocate our resources as

736
00:39:46,604 --> 00:39:50,244
Speaker 1: opposed to just you know, getting getting distracted and going

737
00:39:50,284 --> 00:39:52,204
Speaker 1: all over the place, which is what he wants us

738
00:39:52,204 --> 00:39:54,844
Speaker 1: to do. So let's let's you know, I think this

739
00:39:55,004 --> 00:39:57,804
Speaker 1: is like a good battle tactic from from the old

740
00:39:57,844 --> 00:40:00,644
Speaker 1: grades of you know, Sun Sioux and Klauswitz and all

741
00:40:00,724 --> 00:40:04,364
Speaker 1: of the battle tacticians that I read, you know, way

742
00:40:04,444 --> 00:40:08,124
Speaker 1: way back when don't when the enemy tries to distract

743
00:40:08,164 --> 00:40:11,964
Speaker 1: you don't. Don't fall for right, figure it out, get

744
00:40:12,004 --> 00:40:14,764
Speaker 1: focused and have a good plan of attack yourself. Don't

745
00:40:14,844 --> 00:40:17,244
Speaker 1: let them set the rules. Figure out how to set

746
00:40:17,244 --> 00:40:18,004
Speaker 1: the rules yourself.

747
00:40:18,484 --> 00:40:19,764
Speaker 2: You know, I don't even see it as a we

748
00:40:19,964 --> 00:40:21,644
Speaker 2: or that, you know, I you know, I see myself

749
00:40:21,684 --> 00:40:24,524
Speaker 2: as like an intellectual free agent. I think I'm never

750
00:40:24,564 --> 00:40:26,684
Speaker 2: going to become to Trump per se. But like, look,

751
00:40:26,724 --> 00:40:30,804
Speaker 2: I like the pro growth stuff and the free speech

752
00:40:30,844 --> 00:40:34,244
Speaker 2: stuff and some of it right and so like, And

753
00:40:34,284 --> 00:40:37,604
Speaker 2: I don't think democratic The Democratic Party has offered very

754
00:40:37,644 --> 00:40:40,684
Speaker 2: strong leadership over the past couple of cycles, necessarily, and

755
00:40:40,764 --> 00:40:44,164
Speaker 2: so you know, I see we as like an American suggestion.

756
00:40:44,484 --> 00:40:46,524
Speaker 1: I'm saying, we as like protecting the American people.

757
00:40:46,604 --> 00:40:48,444
Speaker 2: You know, what should be the twenty eighth Amendment. What

758
00:40:48,564 --> 00:40:53,844
Speaker 2: is is an amendment limiting presidential pardon power at the

759
00:40:53,964 --> 00:40:57,084
Speaker 2: very least to like self pardons and the family and

760
00:40:57,164 --> 00:41:00,164
Speaker 2: things like that. Right, we need amendment to the Constitution

761
00:41:00,604 --> 00:41:04,204
Speaker 2: to prevent presidential pardon powers from being abused.

762
00:41:04,324 --> 00:41:08,124
Speaker 1: I agree with you that presidential partners pardons are being

763
00:41:08,404 --> 00:41:10,644
Speaker 1: misused right now. I don't know that that's our number

764
00:41:10,644 --> 00:41:13,004
Speaker 1: one amendment priory, but I but your point, But your

765
00:41:13,044 --> 00:41:16,284
Speaker 1: point is taken, and I do think that it's been

766
00:41:17,004 --> 00:41:19,804
Speaker 1: you know, it's a little bit ridiculous, this kind of

767
00:41:19,844 --> 00:41:24,404
Speaker 1: tit for tat type of presidential partons that we've that

768
00:41:24,444 --> 00:41:28,124
Speaker 1: we've seen in the last forty eight hours. And yeah,

769
00:41:28,244 --> 00:41:33,164
Speaker 1: well we'll just we'll see who. Let's uh, I think

770
00:41:33,204 --> 00:41:36,284
Speaker 1: that we can go back to end with our like

771
00:41:36,364 --> 00:41:40,884
Speaker 1: little kids on the playground or recess analogy. Let's see

772
00:41:40,924 --> 00:41:45,724
Speaker 1: who who can become adult more quickly? Right, Like, who's

773
00:41:45,764 --> 00:41:47,804
Speaker 1: going to be able to emerge from this and stop

774
00:41:48,164 --> 00:41:52,484
Speaker 1: finger pointing and doing silly stuff and getting distracted and

775
00:41:52,964 --> 00:41:56,804
Speaker 1: like get their shit together and actually think through the

776
00:41:56,804 --> 00:42:00,444
Speaker 1: future of the country in a mature way. This is

777
00:42:00,484 --> 00:42:04,204
Speaker 1: a challenge to both Republicans and Democrats. I think this

778
00:42:04,244 --> 00:42:06,684
Speaker 1: is a challenge too, to our entire government, and I

779
00:42:06,724 --> 00:42:08,924
Speaker 1: hope that they rise up to the challenge.

780
00:42:09,484 --> 00:42:21,244
Speaker 2: We'll be right back after this message.

781
00:42:21,644 --> 00:42:25,564
Speaker 1: This week, we're going to answer a listener question why

782
00:42:25,644 --> 00:42:28,284
Speaker 1: don't Nate and I have a driver's license?

783
00:42:28,444 --> 00:42:30,604
Speaker 2: Which, by the way, the listener is wrong about one

784
00:42:30,604 --> 00:42:31,364
Speaker 2: of those two people.

785
00:42:32,324 --> 00:42:37,084
Speaker 1: This is true. We have a question from Kenny in Detroit,

786
00:42:37,244 --> 00:42:39,484
Speaker 1: and the question is, why the hell do neither of

787
00:42:39,484 --> 00:42:42,724
Speaker 1: you have a driver's license, Kenny, I now have a

788
00:42:42,804 --> 00:42:48,204
Speaker 1: driver's license. I have after Yeah, I've driven, Nate has

789
00:42:48,284 --> 00:42:50,284
Speaker 1: driven with me, and I did not crash us. Right,

790
00:42:50,644 --> 00:42:54,204
Speaker 1: I did a good job. I took driving lessons after

791
00:42:54,324 --> 00:42:59,644
Speaker 1: I moved to Nevada. You need to have a driver's

792
00:42:59,644 --> 00:43:02,004
Speaker 1: license and know how to drive. So I took lessons

793
00:43:02,644 --> 00:43:07,244
Speaker 1: and I am now the proud possessor of driving skills.

794
00:43:07,924 --> 00:43:10,004
Speaker 1: Before that, I did not have a life license because

795
00:43:10,044 --> 00:43:12,884
Speaker 1: I've always lived in the city. Right as an adult,

796
00:43:12,924 --> 00:43:16,204
Speaker 1: I've lived in New York and my entire adult life.

797
00:43:16,284 --> 00:43:18,284
Speaker 1: And you do not need a driver's license. You do

798
00:43:18,324 --> 00:43:20,004
Speaker 1: not need a car. It's very hard to have a

799
00:43:20,004 --> 00:43:23,164
Speaker 1: car in New York. We talked last week about congestion pricing,

800
00:43:23,444 --> 00:43:26,884
Speaker 1: but even before that, you know, parking is a pain

801
00:43:26,964 --> 00:43:28,764
Speaker 1: in the ass. Driving is a pain in the ass.

802
00:43:28,804 --> 00:43:31,644
Speaker 1: And I grew up in Boston, and I think Boston,

803
00:43:31,684 --> 00:43:33,524
Speaker 1: a lot of people will say is the worst city

804
00:43:33,564 --> 00:43:38,564
Speaker 1: in the country to drive, because Boston drivers are very aggressive,

805
00:43:38,724 --> 00:43:42,804
Speaker 1: very unpredictable, and Boston streets are horrific. So I'm also

806
00:43:42,844 --> 00:43:46,724
Speaker 1: the youngest of four kids, so people always drove me

807
00:43:46,764 --> 00:43:49,204
Speaker 1: around and I skipped a few grades in school, skipped

808
00:43:49,244 --> 00:43:52,404
Speaker 1: one grade, but was young to begin with. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

809
00:43:52,484 --> 00:43:55,684
Speaker 1: so I couldn't get a license until after I graduated,

810
00:43:56,324 --> 00:43:58,324
Speaker 1: and by that point I went to college.

811
00:43:59,364 --> 00:44:01,564
Speaker 3: Our producer is asking if you drive like a Bostonian.

812
00:44:02,364 --> 00:44:06,684
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I do not drive like a boston question

813
00:44:07,804 --> 00:44:08,324
Speaker 1: you were to.

814
00:44:08,204 --> 00:44:08,724
Speaker 3: Me, Maria.

815
00:44:08,764 --> 00:44:15,004
Speaker 2: No, I didn't notice any any I thought. I thought

816
00:44:15,004 --> 00:44:17,164
Speaker 2: Maria drove pretty well. I think we got lost in

817
00:44:17,204 --> 00:44:20,284
Speaker 2: the casino parking lot and mid mixing this up, but

818
00:44:20,404 --> 00:44:21,684
Speaker 2: like maybe it was with someone else.

819
00:44:22,284 --> 00:44:23,084
Speaker 3: It's confusing, though.

820
00:44:23,124 --> 00:44:25,644
Speaker 2: Those casino parking lots are you go around in circles

821
00:44:25,644 --> 00:44:26,404
Speaker 2: and they change it.

822
00:44:26,924 --> 00:44:29,044
Speaker 3: But the driving itself seem seemed good.

823
00:44:29,604 --> 00:44:31,684
Speaker 1: I appreciate that. No, that was with me. I drove

824
00:44:31,764 --> 00:44:33,844
Speaker 1: us in circles a few times, but then I got

825
00:44:33,884 --> 00:44:36,404
Speaker 1: us out of there. I hate casino parking lots. They're

826
00:44:36,444 --> 00:44:40,244
Speaker 1: designed like casinos. Casino design is meant for you to

827
00:44:40,244 --> 00:44:42,564
Speaker 1: get lost in there, so that you, you know, end up

828
00:44:42,644 --> 00:44:45,044
Speaker 1: having to walk past all the different machines and like

829
00:44:45,324 --> 00:44:47,164
Speaker 1: you just get if you look at the old casinos

830
00:44:47,204 --> 00:44:51,044
Speaker 1: right like a Caesar's, you just your sense of orientation

831
00:44:51,164 --> 00:44:54,364
Speaker 1: goes out the window. It changed Steve Woyn actually changed

832
00:44:54,364 --> 00:44:57,564
Speaker 1: the design elements and it's much more pleasant and open,

833
00:44:57,764 --> 00:45:00,284
Speaker 1: and you don't get lost like at an Encore the

834
00:45:00,284 --> 00:45:02,564
Speaker 1: way that you do at Caesar's. But I feel like

835
00:45:02,644 --> 00:45:05,804
Speaker 1: casino parking lots were designed by the same principle, like

836
00:45:05,804 --> 00:45:07,844
Speaker 1: how the fuck do you get out of there? And

837
00:45:08,244 --> 00:45:11,124
Speaker 1: it's impossible some times to figure out, like where the

838
00:45:11,164 --> 00:45:13,404
Speaker 1: exit is, where the exit is not, and you find

839
00:45:13,404 --> 00:45:15,804
Speaker 1: yourself going in circles. And I just want to say,

840
00:45:15,804 --> 00:45:19,284
Speaker 1: there are no slot machines in the in the garage.

841
00:45:19,124 --> 00:45:22,684
Speaker 3: Just make it easy. Don't want to solve that problem.

842
00:45:25,884 --> 00:45:28,404
Speaker 1: But nay, Yeah, you're a New Yorker, so so I

843
00:45:28,404 --> 00:45:31,324
Speaker 1: think that that answer is why you don't have a license.

844
00:45:31,364 --> 00:45:32,524
Speaker 1: But you didn't grow up in New York.

845
00:45:32,604 --> 00:45:34,204
Speaker 2: Well I wasn't originally, I grew up in Michigan. I

846
00:45:34,604 --> 00:45:40,804
Speaker 2: grew up in Michigan the automotive state. The short ish

847
00:45:40,884 --> 00:45:43,124
Speaker 2: version is like I was kind of a klutzy kid.

848
00:45:43,244 --> 00:45:46,004
Speaker 2: I failed my initial driving test. I then got I

849
00:45:46,004 --> 00:45:49,284
Speaker 2: didn't pass nate, I didn't know that I'm more coordinated

850
00:45:49,284 --> 00:45:52,204
Speaker 2: now than I used to be, then passed uh. I

851
00:45:52,244 --> 00:45:55,444
Speaker 2: then got However, I took a class at like Seers God,

852
00:45:55,644 --> 00:45:59,004
Speaker 2: I'm fucking old, right, and got a permit and my

853
00:45:59,084 --> 00:46:01,924
Speaker 2: dad was like, but you gotta drive another fifty hours

854
00:46:01,924 --> 00:46:04,364
Speaker 2: with me before I sign off on the license and

855
00:46:04,404 --> 00:46:06,684
Speaker 2: then and then I do some of that, but then

856
00:46:06,924 --> 00:46:10,364
Speaker 2: I go to college in Chicago and then and I've

857
00:46:10,364 --> 00:46:13,764
Speaker 2: lived in Chicago when in New York my whole life

858
00:46:14,724 --> 00:46:19,324
Speaker 2: since then. So and my partner drives. We do you

859
00:46:19,364 --> 00:46:22,364
Speaker 2: have a car? So it just kind of isn't like,

860
00:46:23,004 --> 00:46:26,324
Speaker 2: hasn't quite been worth the investment, but it'd be fun.

861
00:46:26,364 --> 00:46:30,244
Speaker 2: It'd be fun to like, yeah, I know pretty people wrong,

862
00:46:30,284 --> 00:46:32,924
Speaker 2: I know, but I feel like, would I be a driver?

863
00:46:33,044 --> 00:46:36,444
Speaker 3: Probably not. I vary.

864
00:46:36,764 --> 00:46:40,724
Speaker 1: I think, well, yeah, well we'll we'll just we'll see

865
00:46:41,044 --> 00:46:42,964
Speaker 1: in a few years whether you've learned how to drive

866
00:46:43,044 --> 00:46:45,444
Speaker 1: or not. I'm glad I now know how to drive.

867
00:46:46,084 --> 00:46:49,124
Speaker 1: But it was really really nice. I'll end on this.

868
00:46:49,324 --> 00:46:51,564
Speaker 1: It's really nice not being able to drive because no

869
00:46:51,564 --> 00:46:53,524
Speaker 1: one can ask you to do shit, right, Like you

870
00:46:53,604 --> 00:46:56,164
Speaker 1: can't run errands and you can't pick people up and

871
00:46:56,204 --> 00:46:58,164
Speaker 1: you can't do anything like that because you're like, sorry,

872
00:46:58,204 --> 00:47:01,564
Speaker 1: I don't know how to drive. But now that excuse

873
00:47:01,644 --> 00:47:03,844
Speaker 1: no longer applies. So there was part of me that

874
00:47:03,884 --> 00:47:07,244
Speaker 1: actually really liked the facts that no one could ever

875
00:47:07,324 --> 00:47:10,444
Speaker 1: ask me to run any related errands.

876
00:47:11,604 --> 00:47:13,444
Speaker 2: No, it is interesting, right, you don't want to give

877
00:47:13,444 --> 00:47:15,484
Speaker 2: people the option. I'm trying to think of some is

878
00:47:15,484 --> 00:47:18,204
Speaker 2: there some name like burning your bridges? There's gotta be

879
00:47:18,244 --> 00:47:22,404
Speaker 2: some other more updated feeling heuristic, right, but like denying

880
00:47:22,404 --> 00:47:23,964
Speaker 2: people the option?

881
00:47:24,124 --> 00:47:24,324
Speaker 3: Right?

882
00:47:25,444 --> 00:47:29,484
Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, I think I think that's good. So yes,

883
00:47:29,604 --> 00:47:32,844
Speaker 1: that that is the answer to your question. Kenny from

884
00:47:32,964 --> 00:47:37,444
Speaker 1: Detroit and so far I have Christine driving record knock

885
00:47:37,484 --> 00:47:45,484
Speaker 1: on wood. Let us know what you think of the show.

886
00:47:45,964 --> 00:47:51,764
Speaker 1: Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm.

887
00:47:51,844 --> 00:47:55,364
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannikova and by

888
00:47:55,444 --> 00:47:58,484
Speaker 1: me Nate Silver. The show is a co production of

889
00:47:58,564 --> 00:48:03,164
Speaker 1: Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter.

890
00:48:03,524 --> 00:48:07,244
Speaker 1: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer

891
00:48:07,324 --> 00:48:08,244
Speaker 1: is Jacob Goldstein.

892
00:48:08,924 --> 00:48:11,124
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us

893
00:48:11,124 --> 00:48:13,204
Speaker 2: so other people can find us too. And if you

894
00:48:13,204 --> 00:48:14,484
Speaker 2: want to listen to an ad free.

895
00:48:14,444 --> 00:48:16,564
Speaker 3: Version, sign up for Pushkin Plus.

896
00:48:16,964 --> 00:48:18,844
Speaker 2: For six, ten and nine a month you get access

897
00:48:18,844 --> 00:48:20,964
Speaker 2: to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in