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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.

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Speaker 2: J J zacher.

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Speaker 1: Resa, what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode

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Speaker 1: elevenh eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning in this time.

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Speaker 1: Last week, I had a conversation with Late Round Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football's own Brandon Godola about catchable targets. He had done

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Speaker 1: a study for one of our newsletters on the topic

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Speaker 1: and there were some really interesting takeaways for twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six drafts. Well, this week we're running it back, but

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Speaker 1: instead of catchable targets, I had a conversation with Brannon

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Speaker 1: about an even more important fantasy football topic, the RB

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Speaker 1: two rebirth. The NFL has slowly morphed into a slightly

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Speaker 1: different game than what we saw six, seven or eight

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Speaker 1: years ago. We've got heavy personnel all over the place.

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Speaker 1: We have a run heavier league in general, and that's

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Speaker 1: made an impact on fantasy football. When I talked about

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Speaker 1: the death of the fantasy football Wide receiver two back

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Speaker 1: in January, one of the things I dug into was

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Speaker 1: positional target share data. Quite simply, how targets were distributed

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Speaker 1: across wide receiver, running back, and tight end. With more

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Speaker 1: tight end usage came lower wide receiver target shairs. But

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Speaker 1: things have been changing at running back too. That's what

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Speaker 1: Brandon really investigated in a newsletter that he had sent

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Speaker 1: out last week, which just a reminder, guys, that newsletter

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Speaker 1: is totally free. There's no reason to not be signed up.

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Speaker 1: But that research last week was so good that I

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Speaker 1: wanted to do another episode of the show with Brandon.

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Speaker 1: Not only does it allow you guys to get to

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Speaker 1: know him and his approach a little bit better, but man,

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Speaker 1: it's just really good and thoughtful research that's going to

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Speaker 1: make all of us better players. At the very least,

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Speaker 1: it'll probably make you feel a little bit differently about

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Speaker 1: this game. Brandon found some very interesting pass catching trends

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Speaker 1: at running back. We'll get into that in just a second. First,

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Speaker 1: this is one of your final reminders to get the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Draft Guide at its pre order price. That

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Speaker 1: guy's going to launch Friday this week, and with it

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Speaker 1: pretty much completed, I can confidently tell you guys that

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Speaker 1: it's the most comprehensive that's a piece of fantasy football

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Speaker 1: content that I've ever put together. There's almost three hundred

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Speaker 1: pages of content. There's strategy talk, ways to find breakouts,

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Speaker 1: players to target players, to avoid rankings in tears, and more.

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Speaker 1: You can check it out and learn more over on

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Speaker 1: lateround dot com. Now let's get to this discussion with

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Speaker 1: Brandon Goadola. All right, Brandon, back to back weeks with

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Speaker 1: the Late Round podcast. You sent a newsletter out last

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Speaker 1: week on this sort of changing receiving landscape at running back.

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Speaker 3: What made you dig into the topic?

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Speaker 2: Well, I was writing up some marketscore sections for something

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Speaker 2: called the Late Round Draft Guide, which releases July tenth.

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Speaker 2: This week, it's going to be updated weekly market new

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Speaker 2: market score information. I'm excited, So make sure you head

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Speaker 2: over to lateround dot com to preorder that. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: so I'm digging through marketscore sections, kind of introing know

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Speaker 2: each position going through, and naturally, as you do content,

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Speaker 2: you flow through position by position, quarterback, running back, receiver,

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Speaker 2: tight end. So I'm rolling right out of quarterback and

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Speaker 2: I'm going into running back, and you know, it just

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Speaker 2: kind of it emerged in you know, the market score

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Speaker 2: analysis that quarterback has this sort of underlying value through

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Speaker 2: rushing and what you kind of dig into with quarterback. Also,

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Speaker 2: it's a very similar sort of process at running back.

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Speaker 2: I mean Rich Reebar of course coined the Konami code,

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Speaker 2: as in rushing quarterbacks being you know, cheat codes for

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Speaker 2: fantasy football. But now we get into a scenario in

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Speaker 2: the NFL where we have rushing quarterbacks who can actually

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Speaker 2: rival some of the top pocket passers with their arms

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Speaker 2: as well. So that's what separates these guys like a

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen, a Pete Lamar. It makes them so impactful.

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Speaker 2: And then as you're digging through market score, as you'll

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Speaker 2: learn and as I mean, if you've listened to JJ

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Speaker 2: for a while, you realize it's the sort of secondary

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Speaker 2: lever of production at running back, but pass catching matters

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Speaker 2: a lot. And so it was just such a like

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Speaker 2: clear parallel of how two of the most important factors

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Speaker 2: in fantasy football are secondary components of two of the

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Speaker 2: four fantasy positions. So you know, quarterback rushing and running

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Speaker 2: back receiving. So I'm looking at this and I'm like, okay,

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Speaker 2: there's got to be you know, a simple sort of

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Speaker 2: like way to kind of draw this together. And you know,

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Speaker 2: this year we've got really a big two, but you

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Speaker 2: probably throw Christian McCaffrey in there as a pure big three,

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Speaker 2: because we have running backs who have elite rushing volume,

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Speaker 2: have elite receiving volume, and good goal line roles, if

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Speaker 2: not great goal and roles. So I was like, okay,

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Speaker 2: it's very similar at the top. And then it kind

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Speaker 2: of hit me though, because we have we have a

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Speaker 2: Malik Willis this year at quarterback, could be a cheat code,

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Speaker 2: could just you know, rush his way. But we all

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Speaker 2: have got you know, Jackson, Dart, bow Nicks, Kyler Murray types,

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Speaker 2: these guys who aren't just all legs. And then it

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Speaker 2: kind of was like, well, who were the names at

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Speaker 2: running back who fit that sort of Malik Willis Mold,

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Speaker 2: the sort of PPR scammer kind of players that we've

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Speaker 2: all grown to love over the years. And they just

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Speaker 2: kind of hit me that there weren't a lot of

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Speaker 2: them coming to mind. And so I started digging in

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Speaker 2: and I think I found some interesting data.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk about that data.

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Speaker 1: So, like, at a macro level, what are you seeing

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Speaker 1: happening league wide with receiving volume at running back?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think it's interesting just to like drop

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Speaker 2: that we're all looking at tight ends and how they're

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Speaker 2: seeing more targets and you broke down the death of

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Speaker 2: the fantasy football wide receiver two earlier this offseason. So

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Speaker 2: you know, we're talking about tight ends. You looked specifically,

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Speaker 2: you know, from a how is this impacting receivers? But

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Speaker 2: I feel like the running back piece of the paul

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Speaker 2: has not been discussed quite to the same level. And

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Speaker 2: I understandard it's a smaller piece of the of the

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Speaker 2: pie overall. But what we are talking about running back

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Speaker 2: is how expensive they are in drafts. At least that's

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Speaker 2: how a lot of people feel. And you know, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we've had good luck with running back injuries lately. There's

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Speaker 2: just I think there's just more to discuss though, So

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Speaker 2: as we dig into running back trends. As far as

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Speaker 2: pass catching goes, we see that target share is down

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Speaker 2: a bit lately. So last year seventeen point seven percent

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Speaker 2: of targets went to running backs. It was the second

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Speaker 2: lowest mark over the last decade, beating out just twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four seventeen point one percent. The eight years prior

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Speaker 2: averaged over nineteen percent. It was nineteen point three percent.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, target share is down as far as running

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Speaker 2: backs go, but overall pass volumes down as well, and

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Speaker 2: so clearly there has to be some.

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Speaker 3: Impact, right, but like what is the total impact?

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Speaker 2: And one thing I noticed was targets per sure just

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Speaker 2: down its position. It's been down under point twenty five

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Speaker 2: for each of the last two seasons. The eight years prior.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting close to point three multiple seasons in that

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Speaker 2: span above well above a point three. So it might

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Speaker 2: sound like a small gap, but that stuff adds up,

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Speaker 2: And so I think that it's clear to say, like

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Speaker 2: at a real macro level, things are changing at running

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Speaker 2: back in terms of how past catchers are being distributed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and targets per rush, just so you guys can

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Speaker 1: really like take that in. It's simply the amount of

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Speaker 1: targets that are running backs seeing versus how many rushes

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Speaker 1: that he's seeing.

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Speaker 3: So it's like proportion, right, So yeah.

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Speaker 1: The lower the lower the number means the the more

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Speaker 1: rush attempts, if you will, versus how many targets that

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Speaker 1: that player's seeing. How how has this impacted then the

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Speaker 1: fantasy relevant running backs?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know we have to isolate things to

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Speaker 2: look at some sort of fantasy relevance to get the

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Speaker 2: most out of this, and fantasy relevant running backs can

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Speaker 2: mean a lot of different things. But I did a

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Speaker 2: pretty high level look at the position. I looked for

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Speaker 2: running backs who played at least eight games in a

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Speaker 2: season and averaged at least ten PPR points per game.

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Speaker 2: You get around thirty three of those players per season

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Speaker 2: over the last decades, So I think that kind of

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Speaker 2: sums up who matters, you know, and who doesn't. Sort

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Speaker 2: of just kind of a pretty simple clean cut off there.

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Speaker 2: And you'll see a similar dip with targets per rush

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Speaker 2: as you do position wide. But we've actually seen a

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Speaker 2: sub point two four mark each of the last two

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Speaker 2: years if you look at just the super relevant fantasy

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Speaker 2: running backs. But of course that coincides with the league

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Speaker 2: wide drop and pass rate, so we can say that

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Speaker 2: the most important backs for fantasy football have been seeing

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Speaker 2: a decline in their ratios as well. So that kind

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Speaker 2: of inherently tells us like this is you know, relevant.

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Speaker 2: It's not just sort of the throwaway backs getting you know,

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Speaker 2: fewer targets and more carries. Perhaps it's also impacting the

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Speaker 2: guys who you know, we care about weekly, you know,

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Speaker 2: the top sort of like thirty six players, so you know,

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Speaker 2: and one of the things here is we're seeing a

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Speaker 2: similar number of backs getting to ten PPR points per game,

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Speaker 2: but they're doing it a little bit less because of

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Speaker 2: their receiving. Of course, there's more to the puzzle than

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Speaker 2: just that, which I think again it was like you

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Speaker 2: kind of I was like peeling back layer after layer

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Speaker 2: as I got here, so you know, similar number of

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Speaker 2: backs getting to that Fantasy relevant cut off, but obviously

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Speaker 2: the pass catchings down, so I think there was a

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Speaker 2: little more to it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and one of the things that you

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Speaker 1: sort of talked about in the newsletter that I think

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Speaker 1: is really interesting and something that I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: I've mentioned maybe in like passing, but there wasn't that

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Speaker 1: much hard data to establish it and to talk through it.

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Speaker 1: But there's you know, the passing game specialists that we

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Speaker 1: used to be able to rely on more in like

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Speaker 1: zero RB builds. I mean, like Chris Thompson back in

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Speaker 1: the day was like a legit viable PPR RB two

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Speaker 1: option just because he was he was, you know, the

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Speaker 1: PPR scammer, you know, as you know earlier. So what

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Speaker 1: does the data say about those past game specialists?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's real obumber because I love these guys like

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Speaker 2: I you know, when my when my you know, most

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Speaker 2: my longest running home league switched to full PPR and

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Speaker 2: you know you're playing three receivers plus a flex. It's like,

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Speaker 2: you know, it was the height of zero RB. I

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Speaker 2: was like, cool, I'll kind of get like that anchor

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Speaker 2: running back with some pass catching. But I can get

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Speaker 2: Tarik Cohen or Theo Riddick or Chris Thompson or James

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Speaker 2: White and get like eleven PPR points per game just

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Speaker 2: because he's just kind of getting these checkdowns. And it's like,

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Speaker 2: you know, where did these guys go?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 2: Like, is it just sort of a temporary shift? Was

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Speaker 2: I over like romanticizing how many of these guys there were?

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Speaker 2: But so I dug in, you try to look for

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Speaker 2: that hard data, as you mentioned, and so what I

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Speaker 2: did was looked for running backs over the last ten

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Speaker 2: years with eight point five or fewer carries per game,

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Speaker 2: so around one hundred and fifty carries per seventeen games,

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Speaker 2: but they still managed at least ten PPR points per game.

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Speaker 2: So if I looked at some sort of ratio of

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Speaker 2: pass catching, we would included like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin

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Speaker 2: Kamara types, which isn't what we wanted. So I did

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Speaker 2: segment it by rushing volume here, and so that leaves

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Speaker 2: thirty two seasons the past decade. The guys who made

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Speaker 2: multiple appearances just you know, a real who's who of

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Speaker 2: the types of names we're talking about, but Austin Ekeler,

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Speaker 2: James White, J D. McKissick, Naim Heines, Rex Burkhead, and

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Speaker 2: Tarita Cohen so exactly the types of players that we

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Speaker 2: would be thinking of. But out of these thirty two seasons,

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Speaker 2: just seven have come over the last five years, and

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Speaker 2: we didn't even have one in twenty twenty three. So

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Speaker 2: we went from five point zero instances per season of

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Speaker 2: running back getting at least ten PPR points per game

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Speaker 2: on eight point five or fewer carries per game from

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen to twenty twenty to one point four over

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Speaker 2: the last five years. So it's not fully like that

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Speaker 2: these players don't exist anymore. Kenneth Gainwell got there in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, Austin Eckler, and Zach Sharbeney did in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. But it's a rare archetype now, and

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Speaker 2: I think like, if you just left it there, it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: that's interesting, but it's not super helpful, just maybe like

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Speaker 2: you can't find the free PPR points at the end

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Speaker 2: of the draft or you know, in like the the

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Speaker 2: mid rounds. But again it was just like a layer

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Speaker 2: after layer. I think there's more more to the story.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So to sum up where we're at right now,

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Speaker 1: we're not necessarily seeing fewer fantasy relevant running backs, right

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Speaker 1: the running backs are still kind of doing their things,

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Speaker 1: scoring a similar number of points let's say at the

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Speaker 1: threshold that we were looking at, But we are seeing

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Speaker 1: fewer past game specialists, right And so you know, my

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Speaker 1: biggest question is where is that production going? And even

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Speaker 1: still like we are seeing this decrease in target share,

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Speaker 1: but it's not like a three decrease in target share

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Speaker 1: running back, right, Like there's still like like running backs

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Speaker 1: are still being taught. Like the bigger the bigger issue

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Speaker 1: with like the heavy personnel seems to be more wide

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Speaker 1: receiver driven in terms of like the decline and target share.

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Speaker 3: So but running back has seen a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a decline.

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Speaker 1: But I guess my question is we're seeing these fantasy

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Speaker 1: relevant running backs, we're not seeing it from these these

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Speaker 1: pass catching specialists. So where is all that running back

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Speaker 1: production going.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, I made a hypothesis. I was like, well,

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Speaker 2: it's probably just going to like these featured backs who

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Speaker 2: are staying healthy, and that just sort of the end

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Speaker 2: of the story. I was wrong, That's not really the case, Like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: when Jamior Gibbs and Bijon and Christian McCaffrey are healthy,

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Speaker 2: they're going to have big target shares and eat up

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Speaker 2: a lot of the overall targets. And it's part like,

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Speaker 2: it's partly true. Yeah, you know, these guys exist, and

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Speaker 2: when they do, they're again just accounting for a lot

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Speaker 2: of the receiving. But there's been like a slight dip

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Speaker 2: in their rushing workloads if you look at like the

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Speaker 2: high volume rusher or so players averaging at least fifteen

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Speaker 2: carries per game. To get real like semantics based here,

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Speaker 2: like they're the featured backs are seeing a slightly diminished

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Speaker 2: role by about point four carries and point four targets

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Speaker 2: per game. But that also kind of just coincides we're

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Speaker 2: seeing a dip in overall play volume. You know, clocks

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Speaker 2: always moving because the injuries run the ball more efficient passing.

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Speaker 2: So I don't really want to get stuck on that point,

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Speaker 2: and again that point four carries in point four targets

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Speaker 2: compares twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, that five year sample,

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Speaker 2: and then twenty twenty one to twenty twenty five. So

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Speaker 2: I'm not really like ringing alarm bells there, but what

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Speaker 2: we have seen is that that meat, like a medium

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Speaker 2: volume running back is just getting more carries and more targets. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, I had the eight point five carry per

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Speaker 2: game cut off for pass catching running backs, and then

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Speaker 2: the high volume sort of the featured backs getting fifteen

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Speaker 2: plus carries you know, per game. That's about two hundred

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Speaker 2: fifty carries over a full season. So if you think

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Speaker 2: about it like one hundred and fifty carry backs and

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Speaker 2: lower two hundred and fifty carries and higher, there's a

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Speaker 2: pretty like big relevant you know now mid range between

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty and two hundred and fifty carries,

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Speaker 2: And that's really the types of players we've seen benefiting.

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Speaker 2: So from that twenty sixteen to twenty twenty sample and

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Speaker 2: from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty five, if you

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Speaker 2: just split these up into five year buckets, basically thirty

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Speaker 2: three relevant backs, you know, the per season in each

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Speaker 2: sample technically slightly more recently, which is interesting. But if

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Speaker 2: you imagine like a pie, of those thirty three players

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Speaker 2: each season from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, thirteen of

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Speaker 2: those on average were high volume rushers. In the five

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Speaker 2: year the recent sample, it's still thirteen, So we're not

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Speaker 2: seeing more of these high volume rushers getting there the

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Speaker 2: low volume rushers. Have you already mentioned when from five

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Speaker 2: per season to one point four per season, so it

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Speaker 2: basically just leaves the medium volume guys who went up

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Speaker 2: from about fifteen to about nineteen per season. So it's

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Speaker 2: not like groundbreaking. It's not like, hey, that the only

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Speaker 2: players who are relevant are like these weird you know,

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Speaker 2: you have to have exactly two hundred carries per season.

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Speaker 2: That's not what it is. But what I think is

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Speaker 2: interesting is that we're not just seeing it funneled to

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Speaker 2: the featured players, which you could probably dismiss is like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're healthier, so they're just seeing bigger workloads. It seems

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Speaker 2: like there's a pretty concentrated effort or just to shift

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Speaker 2: in philosophy where maybe you can't really get on the

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Speaker 2: field if all you can do is catch the ball

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Speaker 2: as personnels are getting heavier. You probably need to be

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Speaker 2: able to handle ten twelve carries a game and get like,

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Speaker 2: you know, two, three or four targets per game, so

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Speaker 2: as we can. As you continue to think about this,

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Speaker 2: you kind of will see the types of players who

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Speaker 2: are more relevant and why we might not have some

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Speaker 2: of the frankly smaller, shiftier, you know PPR running backs

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Speaker 2: still being relevant today.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that this means because look, we just

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Speaker 1: did the draft guide and spoiler alert, A lot of

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Speaker 1: the trends that we look for in our ADP analysis

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Speaker 1: leans towards Hey, the market is not factoring in pass

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Speaker 1: catching nearly enough with these running backs. Therefore, go after

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Speaker 1: these running backs that had good previous season target shares,

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Speaker 1: good previous season yards, pro out run rates. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that no longer matters because this RB two group

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Speaker 1: is seeing such a boost in overall volume and they're

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Speaker 1: becoming more relevant, Or do you think it matters more

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Speaker 1: because receiving is just not as easy to come by

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Speaker 1: anymore with some of these later round guys.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the complete wrong takeaway to walk away from

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Speaker 2: something like this and say that receiving matters less. It

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Speaker 2: matters just as much, if not more, but just in

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Speaker 2: a different way than we're than we've kind of grown

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Speaker 2: used to. So I'm gonna go, I'm gonna I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: shout out our boy, Jim's honess here. Yeah, but he

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Speaker 2: you know, he's my longtime podcast co host.

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Speaker 3: And he used.

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Speaker 2: A metric. I mean, it's pretty simple metric, but he

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Speaker 2: just caught it adjusted opportunities. And what he did with

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Speaker 2: adjusted opportunities was take a player's carries at running back

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Speaker 2: and their targets and multiply their targets by x, so

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Speaker 2: that a player's workload kind of actually you know accounted for,

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Speaker 2: you know, average Fantasy points. So if you were on

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Speaker 2: a half PPR site, it's about double you would double

351
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Speaker 2: players targets compared to his carry. But in PPR leagues

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Speaker 2: that ratio is basically two point five. So since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 2: the average running back carry has been worth about point

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Speaker 2: six Fantasy points, but the average target across the position

355
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Speaker 2: is like up over one point five. I mean, you

356
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Speaker 2: just think about like catch rates like seventy five percent, Right,

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Speaker 2: you get a target, you got seventy five percent chance

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Speaker 2: they get a PPR point, which is better than a carry.

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Speaker 3: Now of course you're not yards and plus the touch. Yeah, yes,

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Speaker 3: exactly right.

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Speaker 2: So it's like at a baseline, it's like, yeah, targets

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Speaker 2: are really valuable, especially at running back in terms of

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Speaker 2: just getting a point, but it's not about find the

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Speaker 2: guys who get more targets than carries, like that's it's

365
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Speaker 2: never really the case. You want carries, but you also

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Speaker 2: want the targets. So and we know that, like that's

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Speaker 2: just how a traditional workload goes. But when you can

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Speaker 2: textualize the workloads, you see how valuable targets still are

369
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Speaker 2: at running back. And that's really starting to impact the

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Speaker 2: way because again that this simple thought process of how

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Speaker 2: how valuable a target is at running back is why

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Speaker 2: players like Austin Eckler and Chris tom and could just

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Speaker 2: get their way to points without having the carries because

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Speaker 2: you know, one carry is equal to four targets or whatever.

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Speaker 2: So this is really starting to take shape for how

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how is it impacting your draft strategy in general?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I would imagine you're sitting here and you

379
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Speaker 1: might not have as easy of a time getting late

380
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Speaker 1: round running backs, Like is that is that sort of

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Speaker 1: the way that you're you're viewing this.

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Speaker 2: So I think the real shift here for me is

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Speaker 2: there are still a few guys who I think fit

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Speaker 2: I'll start here. I think there are a few guys

385
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Speaker 2: who fit the historical mold of a PPR specialist players

386
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Speaker 2: who might not crack one hundred and fifty carries but

387
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Speaker 2: still have good receiving rules or Shot White is the

388
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Speaker 2: first one who comes to mind. Yeah, yeah, he could

389
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Speaker 2: be like the guy at the you know who just

390
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: again PPR scams his way to like a relevant season

391
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 2: without getting a ton of carries. Alvin Kamara, as you know,

392
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Speaker 2: we don't really know, but he could be someone who

393
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Speaker 2: gets He could you know, he could be top top

394
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Speaker 2: ten in targets. We don't know. Because Travis etn I

395
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Speaker 2: think he's a viable pass catcher, but he's I think

396
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Speaker 2: his role as a pass catcher is always overstated, which

397
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Speaker 2: is interesting. Kenneth Gainwell again, R J. Harvey, there's like

398
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Speaker 2: a path for tai J. Spear. I feel like ty

399
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Speaker 2: J Spears in the past would have been such an

400
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,400
Speaker 2: obvious He's gonna get three or four catches a game,

401
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 2: you know, that kind of thing. But we're past the

402
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: point where Dylan Sampson types are going to have their

403
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 2: opportunity to get seven targets a game just kind of

404
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 2: not how it works. So it's not that like it's

405
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Speaker 2: not that nobody with this archetype can be Fantasy relevant.

406
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Speaker 2: I think it's just a shorter list then we're used

407
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Speaker 2: to historically. And what this really does is puts the

408
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: spotlight on those backs who are projected more for like

409
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Speaker 2: two hundred carries, who have receiving juice. I think the

410
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: easiest player to think about is Jalen Warren. Whereas Jalen

411
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Speaker 2: Warren probably historically would have been in the PPR merchant

412
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Speaker 2: like bucket, but because he's able to handle carries, he

413
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 2: is a relevant player. He's been at one hundred and

414
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Speaker 2: forty nine, one and twenty and then two hundred and

415
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Speaker 2: eleven carries over his last three seasons. I think if

416
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Speaker 2: he weren't, if he was not able to handle two

417
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 2: hundred carries, he would just sort of get phased out.

418
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Speaker 2: And whenever you extrapolate that kind of thought process, you

419
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Speaker 2: see more names and Aaron Jones type. It doesn't seem

420
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Speaker 2: like he's just set for massive rushing volume. But we

421
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Speaker 2: know he can handle ten, twelve, fourteen carries. If he

422
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Speaker 2: needs to, Lemandre Stevenson, I'll throw a Traveon Henderson in there, Chubbahabb.

423
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Speaker 2: I think that like another way to sum this up

424
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Speaker 2: other than the Jalen Warren archetype, is that historically I

425
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Speaker 2: would have been out on having Trevion and Remandre together.

426
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Speaker 2: But this is like a new balanced workload that is

427
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 2: leading to relevant seasons when it comes to pass catching

428
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Speaker 2: running backs because they both can handle carries and targets,

429
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Speaker 2: and so one thing I also want to point out

430
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Speaker 2: here is any any zero RB truthers who are like, well,

431
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Speaker 2: we've been running hot with running back injuries. These are

432
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Speaker 2: also the types of players who should be able to

433
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: handle featured workloads if somebody else gets hurt. I think

434
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 2: that's like a I think that is a huge piece

435
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: of this puzzle that we're probably not if you look,

436
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 2: if you look team by team, go down the depth chart,

437
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: you're probably not seeing the amount of if the starter

438
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 2: is hurt, they're going to give this player, you know,

439
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 2: the two down work and somebody else the pass catching work.

440
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 2: You know. I just don't think there's a lot of

441
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 2: those scenarios. I think it's if you don't have both,

442
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: you're probably not going to see the field as much

443
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: because personnel is getting heavier overall. So this take this

444
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 2: makes players like Cam Skataboo really interesting. He's not going

445
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: to be the highest volume pass catcher, but he has

446
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 2: the juice and he can handle workloads. Chase Brown. I

447
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 2: know you're you know you've been high on Chase Brown.

448
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 2: He's really emerging as like the type of player who

449
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 2: he doesn't have the full Christian McCaffrey workload, but he's

450
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: so far and away better of a profile than someone

451
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 2: who just has like the two down work And so

452
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,719
Speaker 2: if you on the flip side, like a Jendarian Price JK. Dobbins,

453
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: David Montgomery, these guys probably don't have that in their

454
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 2: range of outcomes. And so it's not that like you

455
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 2: can just get Woody Marx instead of David Montgomery and

456
00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 2: replaces workload. It's more that there are players who have

457
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: have that they have to have this rushing I think

458
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 2: nowadays to be on the field in order to have

459
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: the pass catching that they need. So I think the

460
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 2: like the biggest takeaway is those middle like the middle

461
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 2: round guys with sort of ambiguous situations or not feature roles,

462
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: they're actually getting more relevant because it's such as it's

463
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: a it's a valuable archetype to be able to handle

464
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: like a mini featured back role.

465
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: M h yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

466
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: And I also think that number one, this is part

467
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: of the reason that we've seen, you know, aside from

468
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 1: you know, I do think that running back injury rates

469
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: have run a little bit hot, but I don't think

470
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: that that's the soul, like you said, the reason that

471
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: we can look at how predictive and how strong running

472
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: back has been the last couple of years and just

473
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: kind of leave it at that.

474
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 3: I definitely kind.

475
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: Of overrated that a little bit last year, But then,

476
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: you know, when thinking about it more and seeing trends

477
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: and thinking about it from through this lens, I don't

478
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: think that that's the only reason why we should be

479
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 1: going or you know that that that we've seen what

480
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: we've seen with running back. But then on top of that,

481
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,239
Speaker 1: like I think that running back has just become as

482
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: a result of all of this, right, Like, there's a

483
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: drop off that happens, but instead of it happening at

484
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 1: the dead zone, it's happening later rights, it's happening not

485
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: quite at the dead zone.

486
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 3: It's it's we're not getting the.

487
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: Players that we were able to necessarily later back in

488
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: the day, and now all of a sudden, that changes

489
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: your draft strategy because you know, if there are only

490
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: a handful of guys that we can really truly feel

491
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: great about late right, then that means that you have

492
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 1: to be the team that gets that player. And that's

493
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: really hard to bank on when you're in round one,

494
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: round two, and round three and you're deciding if you

495
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: want to go a running back or not, which is why,

496
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: at the very least I think you need a running

497
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: back in the first couple of rounds, Like I just

498
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 1: it's a lot more difficult to go zero RB in

499
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: this kind of environment. And then the last thing I

500
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: want to throw out there, the thing that I love

501
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: about this most and the love the way that the

502
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: NFL has sort of moved and shifted and what it

503
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: means for running back is that the evaluation of the

504
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 1: running back himself is becoming more important in a way,

505
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: because you really need to find the running back. Like

506
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: you said, that's almost like a mini bellcal that's able

507
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: to handle a decent amount of work but also handle

508
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: a decent amount through the air, right as opposed to, oh,

509
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: he's just a passing game specialist, like he can find

510
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: a role somewhere, or you know, he's just an early

511
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: down bruiser.

512
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 3: We can just fade him no matter what.

513
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: There's so many more tweeterers that we have to be

514
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: a little bit more creative with how we're evaluating these

515
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: these running backs, and to me, that allows us who

516
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: are degenerates with this stuff and just really really you know,

517
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: detail oriented with it, to spot interesting players that maybe

518
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: we otherwise wouldn't have drafted, you know. And so I

519
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: think it's all incredibly interesting, and I hope people who

520
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: listen to this, you know, thought the same and are

521
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: walking away, you know, looking at the running back position

522
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: a little bit differently. But Brandon, thank you again for

523
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: hopping on. Let everyone know where they can find you

524
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: and the good stuff that you're doing at this company

525
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: called Late Round Fantasy Football.

526
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm on Twitter at Godula thirteen, on Blue Sky

527
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,479
Speaker 2: at Godula, and yeah, everything I do is you can

528
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,239
Speaker 2: find it on lateround dot com. Sign up for the newsletter. Oh,

529
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: I mean the reason I'm here is because I did

530
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: a newsletter on this deep dive. It's nice to have

531
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: a visual too to all this stuff. But yeah, everything

532
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 2: I'm doing lateround dot com.

533
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't even need to repeat much because or

534
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 1: say much because Brandon already said it.

535
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 3: Check out lateround dot com.

536
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 1: Make sure you're pre ordered the Draft Guide that is

537
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: launching on July tenth, so it'll be out on Friday,

538
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: and if you pre ordered, probably be out honestly on

539
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: Thursday evening, as I usually do the night before, so.

540
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 3: Check it out lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for

541
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: tuning in