WEBVTT - Is space-based solar power realistic?

0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:11.480
<v Speaker 1>Hey, Kelly, do you guys have solar power over there

0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.680
<v Speaker 1>at the science farm? We do. We actually pretty recently

0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:17.120
<v Speaker 1>installed solar panels on top of one of our barns.

0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:20.040
<v Speaker 1>And so does it give you like all the energy

0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:23.439
<v Speaker 1>you could ever want? No, not all the energy we

0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.439
<v Speaker 1>could ever want. I married a man who would like

0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.040
<v Speaker 1>to build a giant laser, and so he's always going

0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:30.320
<v Speaker 1>to be disappointed. But it gives us some power. Well,

0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:32.320
<v Speaker 1>does it give you all the energy you need? I

0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:35.720
<v Speaker 1>mean not quite. It's cloudy where we live, and then

0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:39.000
<v Speaker 1>there's nighttime and the batteries aren't quite up to the task.

0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:41.920
<v Speaker 1>Who needs energy at nighttime? Jeez? Or like in the winter,

0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.600
<v Speaker 1>you guys are way too demanding. Yeah, we could just

0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.519
<v Speaker 1>put on like five layers of socks. That might get

0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.320
<v Speaker 1>hard for Zac to wear socks and sandals, but I'm

0:00:49.360 --> 0:01:08.640
<v Speaker 1>sure he'd persevere. Hi. I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist,

0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.440
<v Speaker 1>and I'm the co host of our podcast, Daniel and

0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:15.480
<v Speaker 1>Jorge Explain the Universe. And I'm Kelly Weener Smith. I'm

0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:19.120
<v Speaker 1>an adjunct professor with Rice University and I study parasites.

0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.319
<v Speaker 1>And welcome to the podcast, in which we talk about

0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.280
<v Speaker 1>everything out there in the universe, the tiny little particles

0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.959
<v Speaker 1>that wiggle around beneath your toes and in your toes,

0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:32.600
<v Speaker 1>and the huge mysteries of the universe, how it began,

0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:35.319
<v Speaker 1>how it will end, how it all works. We talked

0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:37.480
<v Speaker 1>about all that crazy stuff and try to break it

0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.640
<v Speaker 1>down and explain it to you. My normal co host,

0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.560
<v Speaker 1>Jorge cham the creator PhD Comics, isn't here today, but

0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.680
<v Speaker 1>we're very lucky to have our returning regular guest host,

0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.480
<v Speaker 1>Kelly Wiener Smith. Kelly, thanks for joining us again. Yeah,

0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:51.200
<v Speaker 1>my pleasure. I'm excited to be back. It's a lot

0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:52.960
<v Speaker 1>of fun. Well, we try to have fun, and we

0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:56.000
<v Speaker 1>also try to talk about the science. And we talked

0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.280
<v Speaker 1>about the mysteries of the universe. We talked about the

0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.920
<v Speaker 1>tiny little particles, but we also like to talk about

0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:04.080
<v Speaker 1>how things work and whether things will work. We'd like

0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.360
<v Speaker 1>to explore technologies. We've talked to this podcast about how

0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:10.480
<v Speaker 1>l e Ed's work. We've talked about how solar panels work,

0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:13.440
<v Speaker 1>and we've talked about things like space elevators. And I

0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.040
<v Speaker 1>understand Kelly, that you're becoming something of an expert in

0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.640
<v Speaker 1>how space technology and space colonization works. Yeah, our upcoming

0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.360
<v Speaker 1>book is sort of on that topic. So we've been

0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:23.720
<v Speaker 1>spending a lot of time reading about these sorts of things,

0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:25.920
<v Speaker 1>and soon has had a chapter on space elevators. And

0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:27.560
<v Speaker 1>are you excited to think about this kind of stuff

0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.040
<v Speaker 1>because you think like everything in the future will be

0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.600
<v Speaker 1>based in space, of space farms and space schools and

0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:37.320
<v Speaker 1>space grocery stores. Well, I have the sense that we

0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:39.920
<v Speaker 1>are maybe a little bit too overly optimistic about how

0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:41.720
<v Speaker 1>great it's going to be to live in space. But

0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I do think that at some point we'll have space

0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.800
<v Speaker 1>settlements and we'll have lots of cool stuff going on

0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:48.840
<v Speaker 1>in space. And how we're going to power all of

0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:51.840
<v Speaker 1>that and and make this awful environment habitable is a

0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.120
<v Speaker 1>very interesting question, I think, because it is kind of

0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.840
<v Speaker 1>an awful environment. I think it's amazing that spaces is

0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.520
<v Speaker 1>sort of like cool sheen to it, right, and it

0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:01.840
<v Speaker 1>is some out there, it's like part of the universe,

0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.639
<v Speaker 1>But it's also kind of awful, right. I mean, it's

0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.000
<v Speaker 1>like not a cozy place to be, no. I mean,

0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:08.600
<v Speaker 1>I think you look at a picture of the Moon

0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:10.840
<v Speaker 1>are Mars, and you can sort of imagine places on

0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.000
<v Speaker 1>Earth that looks sort of similar and sort of convince

0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:15.720
<v Speaker 1>yourself like, oh, it's not that different, but no, it's

0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:19.240
<v Speaker 1>super different, and it's super unpleasant and it's definitely trying

0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:21.800
<v Speaker 1>to kill you all the time. And that really makes

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.320
<v Speaker 1>us cherish life down here on Earth. You know, we

0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:27.320
<v Speaker 1>are really lucky to get to live in this warm,

0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:31.280
<v Speaker 1>atmospheric little slice of the universe that's wet but not

0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:33.639
<v Speaker 1>too wet and has all the right conditions for our

0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of life and our cozy lifestyle. And so I

0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:39.120
<v Speaker 1>think another way to look at space is like as

0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.800
<v Speaker 1>a resource, a way to support and improve life here

0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.400
<v Speaker 1>on Earth, rather than as an alternate for life on Earth.

0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.280
<v Speaker 1>And I think there's a lot of enthusiasm about that.

0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.880
<v Speaker 1>But I also think there's a lot of reasons why

0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:52.760
<v Speaker 1>getting things from space to Earth is really difficult, and

0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:54.280
<v Speaker 1>those are maybe some of the big things we need

0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:57.600
<v Speaker 1>to overcome so that we can make space improve our

0:03:57.640 --> 0:03:59.920
<v Speaker 1>lives down here. Right, We need like a better highway

0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.160
<v Speaker 1>between here and space so we can take better advantage

0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.600
<v Speaker 1>of all of its resources, yes, exactly. And also we

0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:06.560
<v Speaker 1>have to be careful about Earth being a gravity well,

0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.840
<v Speaker 1>so you don't bring, for example, an asteroid with great

0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.680
<v Speaker 1>resources too close and then have a sort of dinosaur

0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:15.280
<v Speaker 1>event happen again. So it's a little sensitive talk about

0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:21.880
<v Speaker 1>cell phones. Right, Oops? Ye, right, whoops, extinction level event.

0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:24.240
<v Speaker 1>My bad. Well, one of the big issues of course

0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.719
<v Speaker 1>facing us down here on Earth is energy and how

0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:31.320
<v Speaker 1>to get clean sources of renewable energy that are cheap

0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:33.880
<v Speaker 1>and that are easy to distribute, and that are consistent,

0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.839
<v Speaker 1>and that can heat your toes on a cold winter night,

0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.240
<v Speaker 1>even on the science farm. So what are some proposals. Well,

0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.400
<v Speaker 1>obviously there's been a big surge down here on Earth

0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:46.200
<v Speaker 1>of solar panels and green energies such as wind, etcetera.

0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:48.600
<v Speaker 1>So that's been helping a little bit. But I get

0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:50.720
<v Speaker 1>a little worried when I look at these projections from

0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.640
<v Speaker 1>the I p c C about like the various paths

0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:56.359
<v Speaker 1>we're going on if we only use like twenty or

0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.320
<v Speaker 1>thirty or fifty renewable energies for the next few years,

0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:04.000
<v Speaker 1>like the nerves for increasing global surface warming temperatures still

0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:06.640
<v Speaker 1>look pretty dire. Yeah, and I'm not super optimistic that

0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:10.400
<v Speaker 1>we'll be able to switch to more climate friendly technologies

0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:13.479
<v Speaker 1>like nuclear because they have sort of other big downsides

0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:17.239
<v Speaker 1>when you've got humans using it. Absolutely and so people

0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:21.599
<v Speaker 1>have been talking about crazy new proposals to supercharge our

0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.360
<v Speaker 1>solar power industry, to make it much more efficient, much

0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:29.240
<v Speaker 1>more dramatic, much more available by connecting it to space. Yeah,

0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.240
<v Speaker 1>so what would that look like? How the heck do

0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.920
<v Speaker 1>you do that? And that's the topic of today's podcast.

0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Today on the program, we're asking the question is space

0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:46.159
<v Speaker 1>based solar power realistic? Because you know, we can talk

0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:48.920
<v Speaker 1>about space based whatever, and you can spend ten billion

0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.799
<v Speaker 1>dollars doing some proof of principle or a hundred billion dollars,

0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.040
<v Speaker 1>But if we're going to talk about something like delivering

0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.640
<v Speaker 1>power to people down here on Earth, it's got to

0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:59.200
<v Speaker 1>be economical, right, It's got to be robust, it's got

0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.159
<v Speaker 1>to be actually realistic. We've got to be developing an

0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:04.000
<v Speaker 1>industry people actually want to invest in and work in,

0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.600
<v Speaker 1>not just some fancy thing for a nationalistic pride. Totally

0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.120
<v Speaker 1>and so okay, So we've got solar panels on Earth,

0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:12.919
<v Speaker 1>and the price of solar panels is plumbing quickly. So,

0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.239
<v Speaker 1>like Zach and I've been together for something like fourteen

0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.120
<v Speaker 1>years now, and almost every year in our relationship we've

0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:21.240
<v Speaker 1>checked the price of solar panels just because we're both

0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.160
<v Speaker 1>excited about renewable energy, and last year we were like,

0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.080
<v Speaker 1>we can afford it now, And partly that was because

0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.200
<v Speaker 1>of tax credits and stuff, but also it's because the

0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.720
<v Speaker 1>price of these panels is going down a lot. And

0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:35.200
<v Speaker 1>so when you can put these cheap panels on your house,

0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:40.120
<v Speaker 1>is why would you bother putting them in space? Right?

0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:41.800
<v Speaker 1>So let's dig into that in a moment, But first

0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:43.800
<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you, like, what made you pull

0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.359
<v Speaker 1>the trigger? Was it really like it's below the threshold

0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.200
<v Speaker 1>where we can afford it. We keep looking at this

0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and keep thinking, you know what, next year they'll be cheaper.

0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.280
<v Speaker 1>If we just wait another year, they'll be cheaper. So

0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:55.279
<v Speaker 1>at what point do you decide, well, they're cheap enough

0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:56.920
<v Speaker 1>and now is the time to buy them. So I

0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:01.000
<v Speaker 1>think the trigger for us was that there was a

0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:05.039
<v Speaker 1>tax break for something like thirty percent where the cost

0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.080
<v Speaker 1>of the solar panels you could apply to your taxes,

0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.520
<v Speaker 1>and that was set to expire, and so we decided

0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:12.640
<v Speaker 1>we needed to do it right away. And actually a

0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:15.920
<v Speaker 1>bunch of the local solar companies were just way overburdened

0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:17.560
<v Speaker 1>because a bunch of people must have made that same

0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:20.160
<v Speaker 1>calculation just a couple of months before the taxes were

0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:22.280
<v Speaker 1>about to expire, and so for us, it was the

0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:24.600
<v Speaker 1>tax break that made us decide we weren't going to

0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:26.120
<v Speaker 1>wait for the price to go down anymore because we

0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.080
<v Speaker 1>thought it would be a while. And also we had

0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:30.640
<v Speaker 1>finally purchased our own house, and this is something we

0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:32.280
<v Speaker 1>had been, you know, dreaming about for a long time,

0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:33.800
<v Speaker 1>so we decided it was time to go for it.

0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.080
<v Speaker 1>And it's really interesting to see the evolution of this.

0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:39.480
<v Speaker 1>Twenty or ten years ago, solar panels were really pretty expensive,

0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:41.480
<v Speaker 1>they were hard to make, they didn't last very long.

0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:43.760
<v Speaker 1>We weren't that good, but you know, people were buying them,

0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.080
<v Speaker 1>and the industry got started and the government gave it

0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:48.600
<v Speaker 1>some pushes, and now we have this very vibrant solar

0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.200
<v Speaker 1>panel industry where the prices are falling rapidly and lots

0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.360
<v Speaker 1>of people are buying them, and so it's sort of

0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.520
<v Speaker 1>builds on itself. It's sort of like consumer electronics, you know,

0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.200
<v Speaker 1>once it gets going and the big marketplace comes in

0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:00.920
<v Speaker 1>with all of his cap at all, than things that

0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.160
<v Speaker 1>just get cheaper and cheaper and easier and easier and

0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.240
<v Speaker 1>better and better. But one thing that is not getting

0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:07.800
<v Speaker 1>cheaper and cheaper as fast as I think we would

0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.720
<v Speaker 1>like is the batteries that go with the solar panels.

0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:13.720
<v Speaker 1>So we live out in the middle of nowhere, and

0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.400
<v Speaker 1>we sometimes will lose power for like a week. The

0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:18.560
<v Speaker 1>previous owner at least told us that, and so we

0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.280
<v Speaker 1>asked the solar panel company, like, so we should buy batteries, right,

0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:23.960
<v Speaker 1>and we'll store up a week of power and when

0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:25.440
<v Speaker 1>our power goes out in the middle of winter, we'll

0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:28.240
<v Speaker 1>live off of the batteries. And the guy was like, no, no, no,

0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.480
<v Speaker 1>you should still buy a propane power generator because the

0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.520
<v Speaker 1>batteries are way too expensive. We're not there yet. That's

0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.480
<v Speaker 1>totally not worth it. And so I feel like solar

0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.839
<v Speaker 1>isn't going to be a really great solution until you

0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:41.960
<v Speaker 1>can actually be storing the power from the sun even

0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:44.600
<v Speaker 1>when you don't need it. And the things like Tesla

0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:46.720
<v Speaker 1>are helping to drive down the cost of these batteries

0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:49.000
<v Speaker 1>because they're you know, making them more efficient and better

0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.640
<v Speaker 1>to put in electric cars. But I think it's still

0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:53.560
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of cases, the technology is still not

0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:55.559
<v Speaker 1>there yet at a reasonable price point. And I think

0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:59.360
<v Speaker 1>you put your finger on what motivates space based solar power,

0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.280
<v Speaker 1>which is that you can't get solar power on Earth

0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.800
<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours a day, three sixty five days a

0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:08.880
<v Speaker 1>year because it's nighttime sometimes and you know it's cloudy sometimes,

0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.160
<v Speaker 1>and so what if you could like beam that power

0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.400
<v Speaker 1>from space anytime, any day, no matter how cold it

0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:16.840
<v Speaker 1>is and how overcast it is. But we'll get into

0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.599
<v Speaker 1>that in a moment. First, we surveyed our listeners to

0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:21.880
<v Speaker 1>hear what they thought about the prospects of having solar

0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.720
<v Speaker 1>power come down from space. So thank you to everybody

0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.200
<v Speaker 1>who volunteered to answer random questions on the internet. If

0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:32.840
<v Speaker 1>you're excited to participate and hear your voice speculating baselessly

0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.719
<v Speaker 1>in the future, please write to us two questions at

0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Daniel and Jorge dot com. So here's what people had

0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.040
<v Speaker 1>to say. I think, yes, maybe not for us on

0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:46.160
<v Speaker 1>the ground, to to the limits of currently available extension codes,

0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:50.280
<v Speaker 1>but definitely important for everyone who is or regis stationed

0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:54.280
<v Speaker 1>in space. I think it is uh something is I'm

0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:59.880
<v Speaker 1>assuming that would be either a dison sphere or a

0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:03.120
<v Speaker 1>the what you call it solar solar sale. I think

0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:05.880
<v Speaker 1>very large scale is impossible. I don't think we have

0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.440
<v Speaker 1>enough matter in the Solar system to make a dicen sphere. Um,

0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.400
<v Speaker 1>but I think some things can be made of it.

0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:15.680
<v Speaker 1>I guess the problem would be getting the power from

0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:19.560
<v Speaker 1>space down to Earth. Again. Um, I guess it would

0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:22.400
<v Speaker 1>be a good idea to have solar panels outside of

0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:26.040
<v Speaker 1>the Ear's atmosphere because you probably get more power because

0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:28.640
<v Speaker 1>there's no clouds and things. But then you'd have to

0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:31.320
<v Speaker 1>get the power down to the surface. So I don't

0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:34.920
<v Speaker 1>know if you can beam power? Is that too star

0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Trek I don't know. Um. Otherwise you could do it

0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.480
<v Speaker 1>with batteries, I guess, and then transport it, but that

0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:45.400
<v Speaker 1>would be very expensive. Space based solar power is not

0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:50.240
<v Speaker 1>realistic now because I don't think we know how to

0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.640
<v Speaker 1>get the power back to the Earth. If we're going

0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:55.480
<v Speaker 1>to use it on the Earth, I feel like that

0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.720
<v Speaker 1>would be a very hard engineering problem. Like we we

0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:04.720
<v Speaker 1>already have trouble sending solar power distances here on Earth.

0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:10.720
<v Speaker 1>So if it's collected in space, that seems logistically like impossible. Well,

0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:14.920
<v Speaker 1>it depends how the technology will evolve, but for now, no,

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.880
<v Speaker 1>But who knows how what we will do in the

0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.040
<v Speaker 1>future why not? So what do you think of their answers, Kelly,

0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.520
<v Speaker 1>I thought those were super interesting answers, and I thought

0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:26.760
<v Speaker 1>they brought up some important points, like how do you

0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:28.960
<v Speaker 1>get the power back to Earth? So they were well

0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:32.079
<v Speaker 1>thought out answers. What about you. I heard a lot

0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:35.240
<v Speaker 1>of skepticism there, which I think is well motivated. There's

0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.720
<v Speaker 1>at least one person who misunderstood the question. I think

0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.680
<v Speaker 1>I was talking about like solar sales and whether you

0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.760
<v Speaker 1>could sail on photons from stars while you're sort of

0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.559
<v Speaker 1>far away from a solar system, which is another totally

0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.800
<v Speaker 1>fascinating question and would require like massive lasers to push

0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.360
<v Speaker 1>on those solar sales. But I think the question of

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.800
<v Speaker 1>like building solar power in space and beaming it down

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:58.880
<v Speaker 1>to Earth does seem pretty complicated and problematic. But you know,

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 1>maybe we're is that the early stages of this industry,

0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.720
<v Speaker 1>back when solar panels on your roof were expensive and

0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.959
<v Speaker 1>flaky and hard to arrange. Maybe we're just sort of

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.480
<v Speaker 1>in the early days and we need to sort of

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 1>get the ball rolling. Anyway, we'll dig into it. So

0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned in the IBCC reports that it just didn't

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.040
<v Speaker 1>seem like renewables were maybe going to be enough to

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.079
<v Speaker 1>deal with the climate change problem, like what is holding

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.600
<v Speaker 1>us back? Why can't we just use renewables for all

0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 1>of our energy and you know, stop using things like coal. Yeah, well,

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:30.960
<v Speaker 1>I think you put your finger on it earlier, which

0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.760
<v Speaker 1>is that you don't get sunlight all the time. And

0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.440
<v Speaker 1>in some cases there are places where you get like

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.400
<v Speaker 1>a lot of sunlight exactly when you need it. For example,

0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 1>if you live in Arizona and you need energy in

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.640
<v Speaker 1>order to cool your house, then you're getting a lot

0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:46.640
<v Speaker 1>of sunlight right when you need to cool the house.

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:50.160
<v Speaker 1>Sins to the energy production produced by the solar panels

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 1>are very close to the energy needs where you need

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.040
<v Speaker 1>it to drive that air conditioning. But that's not always

0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the case. If, for example, you're living in the dark,

0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.719
<v Speaker 1>cold northern Scandinavian winter, then you're not getting a lot

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:02.959
<v Speaker 1>of solar power and you need power in the winter

0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 1>to stay warm. And so the bottle neck there is,

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:10.200
<v Speaker 1>as you said earlier, storage and transportation, Like you could

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 1>have a huge solar farm somewhere in the Sahara or

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:16.359
<v Speaker 1>in the Mojave Desert that produces enough powerful whole country,

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.360
<v Speaker 1>but getting it from there to somewhere else and storing

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.520
<v Speaker 1>it is very, very expensive. Battery technology and transmission losses

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.559
<v Speaker 1>make it essentially totally uneconomical. Okay, so solar panels are

0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.199
<v Speaker 1>just never going to take care of some parts of Earth,

0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 1>that's right, because they can't get energy twenty four hours

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.160
<v Speaker 1>a day and they can't get energy three sixty five

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.040
<v Speaker 1>days a year. And a similar problem for wind. Right

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>wind also directly produces electricity, and electricity is hard to

0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:45.920
<v Speaker 1>store efficiently and hard to transfer efficiently. Is this the

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing where if we improved our grid dramatically

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>things could improve a lot? Or are we limited by

0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>the physics of transmission loss as you go, even with

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>a great grid, we still couldn't get the power to

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.679
<v Speaker 1>place as we need it. Transmission losses are pretty tough,

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 1>and we're talking about you know, across the country or

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:04.760
<v Speaker 1>across the world when we're talking about storage, and storage

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.600
<v Speaker 1>is pretty expensive. So you know, you can't rule out

0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 1>future breakthroughs in battery technology. And actually, we're gonna do

0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:13.960
<v Speaker 1>an episode in a few weeks about electric airplanes, which

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>require innovation in batteries to make them lighter and more powerful,

0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>but current ideas don't have us getting there, and so

0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 1>we have this limitation of just sort of producing the

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 1>power at the right time and in the right place

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>where it needs to be used. All right, So solar

0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>power is great, but you've got these problems with trying

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 1>to get it from place to place and problems with

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.080
<v Speaker 1>not having enough of it in some of the places

0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 1>that you need it. How does spending the incredible cost

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 1>of putting solar power in space help us overcome these problems. Well,

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 1>the basic idea is that it's always sunny in space,

0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 1>So you can have these solar panels up in space

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 1>and they're always seeing the sun. Right, they're gonna be

0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>a high enough orbit that they're not gonna be in

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 1>the Earth's shadow for very long at all, like a

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.440
<v Speaker 1>very tiny fraction of their time. And of course they're

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 1>above the clouds, and so they have basically continuous generation

0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 1>of power. And you know a lot of energy is

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 1>lost when the sunlight passes through the atmosphere. It's like

0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 1>reflection and absorption and that kind of stuff. So the

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 1>idea is that you start out collecting much more solar

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 1>power five six, seven, eight times as much as the

0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>equivalent ground based array, and so that provides you the

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.720
<v Speaker 1>ability to gather more power and also to gather power

0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 1>all the time. And because you're in space, you can

0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 1>reach anyone who might need that power anywhere? Is that

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 1>the idea? So like you can get those people who

0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 1>are living in Norway in the winter. Yeah. So that's

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>the other issue is like you generate this power in space,

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 1>then what do you do with it? Right, Because we

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 1>have already solar panels in space, like every satellite that's

0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 1>out there, and the I s S has solar panels.

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:44.800
<v Speaker 1>It's a very well established way to generate power in

0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>space for use in space. But you want to generate

0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.800
<v Speaker 1>power in space and then use it to build you know,

0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.120
<v Speaker 1>Zack's big laser or whatever, then you need to get

0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.720
<v Speaker 1>it down to Earth. Right. So you might be imagining

0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>like big wires draped from satellites down to Earth. Obviously

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.800
<v Speaker 1>that's not gonna work, right, huge problems there, and so

0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.400
<v Speaker 1>the idea is to beam it down to Earth. So

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 1>you collect the power in space and then you transform

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>it into microwaves or lasers and beam that down to

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 1>Earth to some receiver which then picks it up. And

0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>we have a fair amount of experience with working with

0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 1>solar powers and space, right, So you mentioned the I S.

0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 1>S has solar panels, solute Skylab mirror. They probably all

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm fairly certain they all had solar panels. Also, the

0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:28.840
<v Speaker 1>rovers on Mars have solar panels yep, yep, yep. And

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 1>so we have some information about how solar panels persist

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 1>in a vacuum and how long they survive and how

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 1>well they do as they move in and out of

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the sunlight. So which would mean they're dealing with these

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.480
<v Speaker 1>massive temperature changes as you go in the area where

0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>you get hit with the sun versus when you go

0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 1>in the shadow of the Earth. And so I guess

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>we have a fair bit of information about the use

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 1>of solar panels in space. Do you think that's fair

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:52.120
<v Speaker 1>to say? Yeah, I think we definitely have some experience.

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what the history of repair is for

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 1>those missions, if they're like constantly repairing and replenishing the

0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>solar panels on the I. S. S. Because of micromedia,

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 1>it's a radiation damage. So how long have people been

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 1>thinking about this idea? Is this like a brand new

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.720
<v Speaker 1>idea or an idea that's sort of been floating around

0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.520
<v Speaker 1>for a while. I was doing a little bit of reading,

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:11.560
<v Speaker 1>and it turns out this is an idea that's been

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 1>bubbling up for decades. Actually, there was a first paper

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:16.760
<v Speaker 1>about it by a Russian scientist who the name I

0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.280
<v Speaker 1>camp pronounce can pronounce that name, Konstantine Solkovski. There you

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 1>go in the nineteen twenties and sort of speculative idea,

0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.560
<v Speaker 1>and then I think it's sort of burst into public

0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:30.480
<v Speaker 1>imagination because of a short story by Isaac Asimov. He

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 1>had this device where he would collect solar power and

0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.919
<v Speaker 1>then beam it to various planets, like around the Solar System,

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>but you know, that's science fiction. And then it trickled

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.760
<v Speaker 1>back into academia. In the late sixties there was a

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.400
<v Speaker 1>paper by Peter Glazer sort of like trying to take

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:46.680
<v Speaker 1>this topic seriously and break it down and ask the

0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.399
<v Speaker 1>questions about what would work and how much it would cost.

0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.280
<v Speaker 1>So it's been bubbling around for you know, several decades,

0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.320
<v Speaker 1>and now people are really starting to work on it,

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.120
<v Speaker 1>developing the technologies, thinking about how to beam it down

0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.639
<v Speaker 1>to Earth, how to make it economical. The advent of

0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:03.159
<v Speaker 1>cheap launches from companies like SpaceX or bringing like you know,

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.560
<v Speaker 1>into the realm of the possible. All right, So let's

0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.680
<v Speaker 1>take a moment to talk more about the fine details

0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 1>of what exactly would need to happen in order to

0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:27.200
<v Speaker 1>make this technology work after we take a quick break. Okay,

0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.120
<v Speaker 1>So it's a little hard for me to imagine all

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 1>of the details about what will the solar panels look like,

0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:34.840
<v Speaker 1>how much energy will they be creating, do they need

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:36.760
<v Speaker 1>to be repaired? How do you get the power down

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:38.880
<v Speaker 1>to Earth? So can you give us some more details

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:40.479
<v Speaker 1>about how this is all going to come together. So

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of different ideas for how to make

0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 1>this work, lots of different sort of conceptions. Some of

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.320
<v Speaker 1>them have, for example, huge mirrors that focus light onto

0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.119
<v Speaker 1>a few solar cells and gathered together, so you're like

0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.080
<v Speaker 1>capturing sunlight from a large area and then focusing onto

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.159
<v Speaker 1>just a few solar cells. Other ideas are just have

0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:01.119
<v Speaker 1>like massive sheets of solar cells just like you know,

0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:03.600
<v Speaker 1>lots and lots and lots of them to capture the energy.

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.080
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of different sort of strategies for

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:08.400
<v Speaker 1>how to build this thing and how to make it work.

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:10.560
<v Speaker 1>And we'll talk maybe in a little bit about which

0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 1>ones are more economical and which ones are more feasible,

0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 1>But one of the biggest questions to have to deal

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 1>with is how to get this power down to Earth? Right?

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:20.520
<v Speaker 1>And it seems a little weird, like you collect the

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.080
<v Speaker 1>power up in space and then you need to beam

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.639
<v Speaker 1>it down to Earth. It's a little counterintuitive because it

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 1>was already sort of getting beamed down to Earth, Like

0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the Sun is already beaming it's power to Earth, right,

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 1>So like why do you need to capture it and

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:35.920
<v Speaker 1>then like beaming down to Earth. I was thinking initially,

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:39.119
<v Speaker 1>maybe it's more energetic, maybe they're like focusing, so the

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.600
<v Speaker 1>beam of power from the space array of solar panels

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.719
<v Speaker 1>is like more intense than sunlight. But that's not actually

0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:47.920
<v Speaker 1>the case, and that would actually be quite dangerous because

0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:51.640
<v Speaker 1>that's basically building like a huge space weapon and shooting

0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.160
<v Speaker 1>it at the Earth. And so there's this limitation where

0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:58.919
<v Speaker 1>you basically can't beam down energy at higher intensity than

0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 1>natural sunlight. So when I hear that, my first thought is, well,

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 1>then obviously it's not worth it. So what am I

0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:09.040
<v Speaker 1>not understanding? No, that's a very reasonable reaction, because you

0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:11.960
<v Speaker 1>have to like build this space array to capture the

0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:14.239
<v Speaker 1>energy and then beaming down to Earth and then you

0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:16.919
<v Speaker 1>still need to build on array on Earth that's you know,

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 1>about the same size, because if you want to capture

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.040
<v Speaker 1>this energy on Earth, you need to build something that's

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.720
<v Speaker 1>going to grab it. And for example, if you're using microwaves,

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.280
<v Speaker 1>microwaves have a really long wavelength, and so you might

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:30.800
<v Speaker 1>need for example, like a rays on Earth that are

0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:34.560
<v Speaker 1>one to three kilometers wide just to capture this energy.

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:38.440
<v Speaker 1>And if that energy doesn't have more intensity than sunlight,

0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:40.680
<v Speaker 1>you might as well just have built a ground based

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.760
<v Speaker 1>solar panel right there. Right, why capture in terms of

0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:46.920
<v Speaker 1>microwaves from space instead of just like a natural sunlight

0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.919
<v Speaker 1>falling on the Earth. And the answer is that the

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:53.560
<v Speaker 1>source of light from space should be more constant, right Like,

0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:56.119
<v Speaker 1>if you're on Earth and you're just lying on sunlight,

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 1>then you're not going to be getting it at nighttime,

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:00.159
<v Speaker 1>and you're not gonna be getting when it's cloudy. And

0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:02.680
<v Speaker 1>people who don't live in southern California like I do,

0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:05.119
<v Speaker 1>know that they don't get more than a few hours

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:08.879
<v Speaker 1>of like really equivalent solid sunlight on an average day.

0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 1>So the difference is that it should be constant, that

0:21:11.359 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 1>you should be always getting this microwave power beamed down

0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.480
<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours a day, sixty five days a year.

0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 1>So the power we get sent to some giant station

0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>that collects it, and then it would be sent through

0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 1>the grid to our houses. And you could have several

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 1>stations scattered all around, and the solar panels in space

0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:30.639
<v Speaker 1>could direct the energy where it's needed, so it's not

0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:34.560
<v Speaker 1>like linked up necessarily for all time. Between one set

0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:37.720
<v Speaker 1>of solar panels in space and a receiving station on Earth,

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.679
<v Speaker 1>you could decide, oh, Australia needs more power, or oh

0:21:40.800 --> 0:21:44.119
<v Speaker 1>we need more power in Scandinavia, and you could redirect

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.320
<v Speaker 1>this power as needed. Because you're just pointing it from space.

0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:49.800
<v Speaker 1>It's like you're shooting it from space down to the

0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:53.480
<v Speaker 1>receiver on Earth and that would be sent as microwaves.

0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:56.400
<v Speaker 1>So there are two sort of technologies people are considering.

0:21:56.480 --> 0:22:00.400
<v Speaker 1>One is marcro waves and the other is lasers. Micro Waves,

0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, are just photons. There's just another kind of light,

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:06.440
<v Speaker 1>but it's light with a very specific wavelength. It's the

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:08.960
<v Speaker 1>same kind of radiation, same kind of light that exists

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:11.760
<v Speaker 1>in your microwave oven to heat up your food. So

0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:14.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you beam microwaves at something, you will

0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:16.720
<v Speaker 1>heat it up. They contain power, and the microwave is

0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 1>just tell you, like roughly what the wavelength is of

0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:22.640
<v Speaker 1>the light. And so we're talking about centimeter length wavelengths,

0:22:22.680 --> 0:22:24.800
<v Speaker 1>which is not actually that small, you know, compared to

0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:27.399
<v Speaker 1>like visible light, but it's micro compared to you know,

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:31.080
<v Speaker 1>like much longer wavelengths radio light. And so these are

0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:33.520
<v Speaker 1>great because they can pass through clouds. For example, so

0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:36.879
<v Speaker 1>you shoot a microwave, it's basically clouds are invisible to it.

0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 1>The clouds are totally transparent, and so that's pretty nice.

0:22:40.480 --> 0:22:43.000
<v Speaker 1>And these things could be like up really far away

0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:46.000
<v Speaker 1>in sort of middle Earth orbit or geosynchronous orbit, like

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 1>thirty five kilometers above the Earth, and they could beam

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.399
<v Speaker 1>the light down in terms of microwaves, and then on

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:53.159
<v Speaker 1>the Earth surface you just need some sort of like

0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>microwave antenna which is just like a big chain link

0:22:56.359 --> 0:22:59.399
<v Speaker 1>fence essentially to capture these microwaves. So this might be

0:22:59.400 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 1>a silly question, and but so I wouldn't want to

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 1>be in my microwave. That would be a bad place

0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 1>to be. Do you have to worry about, like if

0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 1>a plane passes underneath the microwaves that are getting sent

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 1>down to the power stations on Earth. Would that be

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 1>a problem or or not. It's not a sarily question

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 1>at all. I don't want to be in a microwave either,

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:20.760
<v Speaker 1>especially a space based microwave. They could like track me

0:23:20.800 --> 0:23:23.080
<v Speaker 1>and shoot me wherever I go. The idea is to

0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:26.399
<v Speaker 1>limit the intensity to the intensity of normal sunlight, so

0:23:26.440 --> 0:23:28.880
<v Speaker 1>you don't get any problems like that because you don't

0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:31.320
<v Speaker 1>just have to worry about airplanes. What about like birds.

0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:33.720
<v Speaker 1>You don't want to create like a death zone where

0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:35.480
<v Speaker 1>you have like a column of birds that are like

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:39.040
<v Speaker 1>constantly dying and falling onto your microwave array because you're

0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:41.760
<v Speaker 1>killing them more insects or anything else, right, you don't

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 1>want to be changing the weather. So that's why they

0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:46.399
<v Speaker 1>limited to the roughly the intensity of natural life. But

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:49.199
<v Speaker 1>that is definitely an experiment. When we talked once on

0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:51.880
<v Speaker 1>this program about five G, which operates in the same

0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 1>sort of wavelengths, we don't have sort of knowledge about

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:59.520
<v Speaker 1>what it's like to live under low intensity constant sources

0:23:59.560 --> 0:24:02.159
<v Speaker 1>of micro way of radiation because people haven't done it before.

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.240
<v Speaker 1>So we might discover some bad news, some bad consequences

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:08.320
<v Speaker 1>of this if you live near the station. But current

0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:11.480
<v Speaker 1>understanding of physics and biology, is that that wouldn't be

0:24:11.560 --> 0:24:14.199
<v Speaker 1>dangerous to humans, Okay? And then different questions. So you

0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:18.200
<v Speaker 1>had mentioned that the solar panels would be in geosynchronous orbit,

0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:21.199
<v Speaker 1>and geosynchronous orbit is like really high up. So the

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 1>International Space Station is in low Earth orbit. Geosynchronous orbit,

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:26.600
<v Speaker 1>as I understand it is really high up, and that's

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:28.159
<v Speaker 1>where you need it to make sure that an object

0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:30.560
<v Speaker 1>stays over the same spot in Earth all the time.

0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:35.080
<v Speaker 1>And so if you are super far away, like farther

0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:37.680
<v Speaker 1>than where a lot of those satellites, you know starlink

0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:40.359
<v Speaker 1>for example, is do you lose power on the way

0:24:40.400 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 1>and is that a problem or do microwaves not sort

0:24:43.880 --> 0:24:47.160
<v Speaker 1>of dissipate over distance. You definitely lose power and that's

0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:49.879
<v Speaker 1>definitely a problem, and when we talk about the economics

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:52.800
<v Speaker 1>of it, that's definitely an issue. You can't transmit energy

0:24:53.480 --> 0:24:57.919
<v Speaker 1>efficiently basically, ever, and if you're beaming power over long distances,

0:24:57.960 --> 0:25:00.879
<v Speaker 1>you're also going to lose some power. They're hoping for

0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:04.919
<v Speaker 1>efficiencies of like fifty to eighty percent. They actually have

0:25:05.080 --> 0:25:08.639
<v Speaker 1>done some tests they beamed power using microwaves. This is

0:25:08.640 --> 0:25:10.480
<v Speaker 1>the test they did in Hawaii and went for a

0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:13.439
<v Speaker 1>hundred miles and they're able to get reasonable efficiency, but

0:25:13.480 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely an issue at every stage you're gonna be

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>losing some energy. You know, converting the sunlight into electricity

0:25:19.960 --> 0:25:24.040
<v Speaker 1>is like maybe thirty efficient if you think very optimistically,

0:25:24.359 --> 0:25:26.840
<v Speaker 1>and then transforming that into microwaves is not gonna be

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:29.640
<v Speaker 1>hundredsent efficient. And then the transmission down to Earth that's

0:25:29.640 --> 0:25:32.159
<v Speaker 1>not going to be hundredsent efficient, and then the conversion

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 1>from microwaves back to electricity is not going to be

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:36.919
<v Speaker 1>a hundred percent efficient. And so you multiply all these

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:39.680
<v Speaker 1>numbers together and starts to get smaller and smaller. So

0:25:39.760 --> 0:25:43.560
<v Speaker 1>this whole question of whether it's feasible relies on balancing

0:25:43.600 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 1>this like a multiplier factor of your getting more power

0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 1>consistently with the expense factor of you've got more steps

0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:53.879
<v Speaker 1>in the chain where you're gonna lose efficiency. And also

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:56.240
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty expensive chain to build. I mean, this thing

0:25:56.320 --> 0:25:59.480
<v Speaker 1>is going to be in space. That all sounds super complicated.

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 1>So you had mentioned they could do microwaves or lasers.

0:26:02.640 --> 0:26:05.400
<v Speaker 1>Do lasers make any of those equations play a little

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:08.800
<v Speaker 1>bit more nicely? So microwaves and lasers the two ideas

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.439
<v Speaker 1>lasers are a different idea, and the goal here is

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:16.680
<v Speaker 1>to make smaller devices because lasers can be more focused

0:26:16.680 --> 0:26:19.760
<v Speaker 1>and they can be narrower beams just because the frequency

0:26:19.760 --> 0:26:21.840
<v Speaker 1>of the light is higher and so it doesn't like

0:26:21.920 --> 0:26:24.199
<v Speaker 1>disperse as much as it comes down to Earth. And

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.080
<v Speaker 1>so for example, you can have like a two meter

0:26:26.280 --> 0:26:29.439
<v Speaker 1>wide beam instead of a one kilometer wide beam, so

0:26:29.480 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>you can have like smaller stations where you're capturing this energy.

0:26:32.800 --> 0:26:35.320
<v Speaker 1>You don't need to have like a massive area on

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:38.720
<v Speaker 1>the Earth. It's like a more intense, narrow focused beam.

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:41.440
<v Speaker 1>And the idea there is that also the lasers could

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:43.800
<v Speaker 1>be closer, like they don't need to be as far away,

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:46.520
<v Speaker 1>so you can have like a larger number of smaller

0:26:46.560 --> 0:26:50.040
<v Speaker 1>satellites beaming the energy down with lasers instead of microwaves.

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:51.800
<v Speaker 1>But of course, you know there's some dangers. They're like

0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about more intensity in your beam. You talk

0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:57.439
<v Speaker 1>about literally shooting lasers at the Earth from space. That

0:26:57.560 --> 0:26:59.520
<v Speaker 1>gives me the Heabie gps, so it gives me the

0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:01.879
<v Speaker 1>hebe gep is too. But like microwaves, is it the

0:27:01.880 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>case that you would just have to make sure that

0:27:04.000 --> 0:27:06.879
<v Speaker 1>you never are generating more power than the sun, Like,

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:09.360
<v Speaker 1>are these just gonna be super weak lasers? Yeah, exactly,

0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:11.600
<v Speaker 1>you need to not be creating death rays from space,

0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:14.040
<v Speaker 1>so they would have to be pretty weak lasers, and

0:27:14.080 --> 0:27:16.360
<v Speaker 1>that limits the power there, right, So I think these

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:19.040
<v Speaker 1>days microwaves are sort of on the ascendants when it

0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:22.359
<v Speaker 1>comes to space based solar power because you have this

0:27:22.480 --> 0:27:25.000
<v Speaker 1>limit on the intensity, which means that in order to

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:27.480
<v Speaker 1>get enough power, you would still need a very large

0:27:27.480 --> 0:27:30.720
<v Speaker 1>receiving array, so you just need lots of lasers, and

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:32.879
<v Speaker 1>so it might be that you would need like a

0:27:33.000 --> 0:27:35.520
<v Speaker 1>huge number of these lasers. The other problem with lasers

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>is that clouds aren't as transparent to lasers as they

0:27:38.520 --> 0:27:42.160
<v Speaker 1>are too microwaves. Microwaves can mostly pass through the atmosphere

0:27:42.160 --> 0:27:45.560
<v Speaker 1>in the clouds without losing energy, but not true for lasers,

0:27:45.560 --> 0:27:48.199
<v Speaker 1>Like clouds can block lasers much more efficiently than they

0:27:48.200 --> 0:27:50.840
<v Speaker 1>can block microwave beams. That sounds like a pretty big

0:27:50.880 --> 0:27:56.040
<v Speaker 1>problem problem exactly. So I wonder if there's a geopolitical

0:27:56.080 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>problem here too, So you know, when you create this system,

0:28:00.440 --> 0:28:03.639
<v Speaker 1>you make sure that you're not blasting the Earth with

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:06.840
<v Speaker 1>lasers that are super powerful. But like, for example, would

0:28:06.840 --> 0:28:10.639
<v Speaker 1>we feel comfortable with North Korea saying we have a

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:14.439
<v Speaker 1>power problem and we want to use space based solar power,

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:16.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, to generate power. So is this the kind

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:18.679
<v Speaker 1>of thing where you might be able to say the

0:28:18.760 --> 0:28:22.119
<v Speaker 1>international community is okay with, for example, the United States

0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:24.359
<v Speaker 1>having this power because we think they'll follow our rules,

0:28:24.520 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 1>but we won't let North Korea anyway there. Do you

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 1>think there's geopolitical issues that might come to play here? Oh,

0:28:29.520 --> 0:28:31.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure there are, and I'm not up to speed

0:28:32.000 --> 0:28:34.480
<v Speaker 1>on like what the treaties are about how we use

0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:37.359
<v Speaker 1>space and what the rules are up there who's allowed

0:28:37.359 --> 0:28:39.600
<v Speaker 1>to launch these things? I think it's essentially there are

0:28:39.600 --> 0:28:41.920
<v Speaker 1>no rules, right. We certainly haven't been able to like

0:28:42.080 --> 0:28:45.200
<v Speaker 1>limit North Korea from launching satellites or missiles or anything

0:28:45.240 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 1>like that. So as we move into an era where

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>space is a international resource and one where they're competing interests,

0:28:53.160 --> 0:28:55.320
<v Speaker 1>will definitely have to figure all this stuff out. Maybe

0:28:55.360 --> 0:28:57.560
<v Speaker 1>a model for this is, you know, how we handle

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:01.960
<v Speaker 1>international sea waters or Arctica or stuff like that. Yeah.

0:29:01.960 --> 0:29:04.320
<v Speaker 1>I've been talking to some space lawyers and it seems like,

0:29:04.440 --> 0:29:07.120
<v Speaker 1>if nothing else, it's a very interesting time to be

0:29:07.200 --> 0:29:10.000
<v Speaker 1>a space layer. With our space lawyers Are they lawyers

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:13.520
<v Speaker 1>in space or are they lawyers about space? Or what's

0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the deal with a space lawyer. There's a job that

0:29:15.600 --> 0:29:18.040
<v Speaker 1>will always seem fake to me. It will always seem

0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:20.160
<v Speaker 1>like something that belongs in a sci fi novel. But no,

0:29:20.280 --> 0:29:24.040
<v Speaker 1>those are lawyers working on questions related to space, and

0:29:24.080 --> 0:29:26.160
<v Speaker 1>it's a super active field, and I think they've got

0:29:26.160 --> 0:29:28.960
<v Speaker 1>tons of work to do right now as space gets cheaper,

0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:30.840
<v Speaker 1>and so what do they think is going to happen to,

0:29:30.920 --> 0:29:33.960
<v Speaker 1>like how we handle these competing claims and interests in space.

0:29:34.080 --> 0:29:37.200
<v Speaker 1>It depends on what topic you're referring to in particular.

0:29:37.360 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of debate right now on topics

0:29:40.160 --> 0:29:42.959
<v Speaker 1>like our countries allowed to go to the Moon and

0:29:43.000 --> 0:29:46.080
<v Speaker 1>extract their resources and use them, and the Outer Space

0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:49.400
<v Speaker 1>Treaty has some sort of vague language about how you're

0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:52.240
<v Speaker 1>not supposed to be able to like take stuff, and

0:29:52.360 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>it's supposed to be for everyone. Everyone is supposed to benefit.

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:57.520
<v Speaker 1>But the US is sort of interpreting right now that

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:01.120
<v Speaker 1>we can go up there and if we extra resources,

0:30:01.120 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 1>our companies can then sell them, and that's not the

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:04.960
<v Speaker 1>same as claiming sovereignty. So the big thing the Outer

0:30:05.000 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Space treaty says is that you can't claim sovereignty of

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:10.080
<v Speaker 1>any part of space, and so they would be saying,

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.720
<v Speaker 1>but we're not claiming sovereignty. We're just extracting resources and

0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:15.120
<v Speaker 1>selling those resources. We're not saying we own the land

0:30:15.320 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 1>where we did the extractions. So space lawyers are sort

0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:20.240
<v Speaker 1>of trying to figure out what to do about those

0:30:20.280 --> 0:30:24.000
<v Speaker 1>claims and how sound those claims are. And I don't

0:30:24.040 --> 0:30:27.920
<v Speaker 1>know how that would relate to things like are you

0:30:27.960 --> 0:30:31.560
<v Speaker 1>allowed to put space based solar power up when it

0:30:31.600 --> 0:30:33.280
<v Speaker 1>has the potential to be used as a weapon, So

0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:35.560
<v Speaker 1>you're not allowed to put you know, for example, weapons

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>of mass destruction up in space. But there's this problem

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:41.760
<v Speaker 1>with dual use where there's things that you can say like, well, no,

0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:44.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm just doing this for power. I'm trying to, you know,

0:30:44.480 --> 0:30:46.760
<v Speaker 1>make sure my people stay warm, but it can also

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:48.400
<v Speaker 1>be used as a weapon, and so it becomes hard

0:30:48.400 --> 0:30:50.800
<v Speaker 1>to categorize. And so you know, space lawyers are working

0:30:50.800 --> 0:30:53.680
<v Speaker 1>on questions like that. It definitely sounds very space lawyery,

0:30:53.920 --> 0:30:56.440
<v Speaker 1>like we're not claiming we own it, We're just taking

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:58.840
<v Speaker 1>stuff out of it and selling it for money. You know,

0:30:58.880 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm not claiming sovereignty over your house, but I'm taking

0:31:01.680 --> 0:31:03.920
<v Speaker 1>your flat screen TV and selling it on eBay and

0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:07.120
<v Speaker 1>keeping the cash. It gets very complicated, it sounds like

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:08.760
<v Speaker 1>it does. And I think that's kind of the lesson

0:31:08.800 --> 0:31:12.040
<v Speaker 1>here is like everything in space is complicated, not just

0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:14.200
<v Speaker 1>from a legal point of view, but from a logistical

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:16.240
<v Speaker 1>point of view. You know, one big problem I have

0:31:16.360 --> 0:31:20.160
<v Speaker 1>with space based solar power is that it's really inaccessible. Like,

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:22.440
<v Speaker 1>if you build a solar power array on your roof,

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:24.360
<v Speaker 1>it's hard enough to get up there to pick something,

0:31:24.480 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>or you gotta get a ladder and maybe break your

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:28.520
<v Speaker 1>neck getting up there. But like if we're talking about

0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>building something and putting it in space, right, like you

0:31:31.840 --> 0:31:34.800
<v Speaker 1>got to repair that thing. It's a huge problem. Remember

0:31:34.840 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 1>when they built the Hubble and it had an issue

0:31:36.800 --> 0:31:38.920
<v Speaker 1>and you know, one of the lenses was fuzzy. They

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:41.720
<v Speaker 1>had to like send astronauts up there in the Space

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Shuttle to go and repair that thing. And like, if

0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:46.440
<v Speaker 1>you've waited a long time to get your cable provider

0:31:46.440 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 1>to come by and fix something, imagine waiting on massive

0:31:49.880 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 1>lawn schedule, right, and we don't you know, the Space

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:54.840
<v Speaker 1>Shuttle was a more versatile vehicle than the things that

0:31:54.880 --> 0:31:57.120
<v Speaker 1>we have now that bring us to the International Space

0:31:57.160 --> 0:31:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Station and DOC and then come back down again, and

0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 1>so well, I don't know what it would actually take

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 1>if you wanted to have a human go to repair

0:32:04.280 --> 0:32:06.240
<v Speaker 1>your space based solar panel. I don't know that we

0:32:06.280 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 1>have good technology available currently for that sort of delicate,

0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:12.360
<v Speaker 1>like going to a very particular spot in space kind

0:32:12.400 --> 0:32:14.400
<v Speaker 1>of job. And so we'll talk in the next segment

0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 1>about the idea of how to do these kinds of

0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:19.240
<v Speaker 1>repairs and what might entail and what's going on with

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:21.240
<v Speaker 1>the economics when we talk to an expert who was

0:32:21.280 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 1>really excited about the prospects of it. But before we

0:32:23.520 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 1>talk about that, I want to talk a little bit

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:26.960
<v Speaker 1>more about something that you mentioned earlier, which is sort

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:30.480
<v Speaker 1>of the hostile environment. Right If you have solar panels

0:32:30.760 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 1>in your backyard, obviously you know it's gonna be rain

0:32:33.720 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 1>and snow and hail, all these things you have to

0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 1>deal with. But they have the benefit of the protection

0:32:38.400 --> 0:32:41.760
<v Speaker 1>of the Earth's atmosphere. But if you're out there in space,

0:32:42.240 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>right then you're susceptible to rocks and debris and radiation

0:32:46.600 --> 0:32:48.959
<v Speaker 1>and all sorts of stuff. It's a very hostile environment.

0:32:48.960 --> 0:32:51.400
<v Speaker 1>It's not a nice place to be for humans or

0:32:51.520 --> 0:32:54.400
<v Speaker 1>four solar panels. Yeah, I know, the radiation is super

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:56.560
<v Speaker 1>intense and it definitely breaks things down. And then in

0:32:56.600 --> 0:32:59.960
<v Speaker 1>addition to the radiation, the dramatic temperature changes are problems.

0:33:00.000 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 1>So on the International Space Station you can hear the

0:33:02.960 --> 0:33:06.200
<v Speaker 1>station creaking as it goes from areas where it's in

0:33:06.240 --> 0:33:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the sun to areas where it's in the dark. And

0:33:08.360 --> 0:33:10.800
<v Speaker 1>if you've got things that are in the shadow of

0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:13.000
<v Speaker 1>the Earth, every once in a while they're expanding and

0:33:13.000 --> 0:33:15.560
<v Speaker 1>contracting as they get superheated by the sun, and then

0:33:15.560 --> 0:33:18.080
<v Speaker 1>they get super cold in the vacuum of space when

0:33:18.120 --> 0:33:21.360
<v Speaker 1>there's no sunlight, they contract again, and that's not good

0:33:21.400 --> 0:33:24.520
<v Speaker 1>for materials over long periods of time. So between the

0:33:24.560 --> 0:33:28.000
<v Speaker 1>intense radiation and the dramatic temperature changes, that's a lot

0:33:28.040 --> 0:33:31.160
<v Speaker 1>to ask your materials to handle. Yeah, that's like station

0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:34.440
<v Speaker 1>quakes right Like, it literally is like shaking and creaking

0:33:34.560 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 1>as it expands and contracts. That's amazing. And then in

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 1>addition to those problems, you have micro meteorites out there

0:33:40.280 --> 0:33:43.360
<v Speaker 1>which are traveling incredibly fast and could easily be poking

0:33:43.440 --> 0:33:47.000
<v Speaker 1>holes into your solar panels and their space debris. Space

0:33:47.000 --> 0:33:50.640
<v Speaker 1>debris is a problem that becomes harder every single year,

0:33:51.120 --> 0:33:54.080
<v Speaker 1>and it becomes harder the more silly humans do silly

0:33:54.160 --> 0:33:57.200
<v Speaker 1>human things. And so I think it was two thousand

0:33:57.240 --> 0:33:59.920
<v Speaker 1>seven China wanted to prove that they could shoot a

0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:02.040
<v Speaker 1>satellite in space, just as a way of being like,

0:34:02.240 --> 0:34:04.760
<v Speaker 1>look at how precise we are in our ability to

0:34:04.760 --> 0:34:07.080
<v Speaker 1>shoot at things in space. US has done that, Rush

0:34:07.080 --> 0:34:09.200
<v Speaker 1>has done that, India has done that. It's not just China,

0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 1>but anyway, they picked a satellite that was still high

0:34:12.360 --> 0:34:15.840
<v Speaker 1>enough in orbit that it generated thousands I think of

0:34:15.840 --> 0:34:17.759
<v Speaker 1>pieces of debris. I wish I could remember the number

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:20.160
<v Speaker 1>that are still floating around in space. And over time,

0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:23.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, we leave satellites and we don't decay them

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:25.000
<v Speaker 1>and have them go down into the atmosphere. There's just

0:34:25.080 --> 0:34:27.600
<v Speaker 1>more and more stuff up there that could run into

0:34:28.400 --> 0:34:31.520
<v Speaker 1>your space based solar panels. And so this is a

0:34:31.560 --> 0:34:33.480
<v Speaker 1>problem that becomes harder over time. And if you have

0:34:33.520 --> 0:34:36.840
<v Speaker 1>a giant array, you've got essentially a giant target to

0:34:36.880 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 1>get hit by space debris. And for important things satellites,

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:42.399
<v Speaker 1>the International Space Station, they have the ability to move

0:34:42.440 --> 0:34:44.920
<v Speaker 1>out of the way, but that requires you know, some

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:46.960
<v Speaker 1>fuel to be able to move when you know that

0:34:47.040 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 1>something is coming your way. So these solar panels might

0:34:50.040 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 1>also need to be mobile to stay out of the way.

0:34:52.160 --> 0:34:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And one way or another, they're probably still getting hit

0:34:53.960 --> 0:34:56.200
<v Speaker 1>with stuff because we can't track the super tiny stuff

0:34:56.200 --> 0:34:58.560
<v Speaker 1>with our sensors. No, you're absolutely right, and they might

0:34:58.600 --> 0:35:00.520
<v Speaker 1>not just be a target of as to brethe that

0:35:00.600 --> 0:35:03.200
<v Speaker 1>might be a source of space debris. Right. If they

0:35:03.280 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 1>break and stuff falls off of them, and you're talking

0:35:06.000 --> 0:35:08.799
<v Speaker 1>about like replacing components, they're going to be contributing to

0:35:08.880 --> 0:35:11.920
<v Speaker 1>space debris. And this problem becomes as a crescendo. Right,

0:35:11.920 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>the more space debris you have, the more junk you

0:35:14.239 --> 0:35:16.759
<v Speaker 1>create as it collides into other stuff, and then you

0:35:16.760 --> 0:35:19.960
<v Speaker 1>get this cascading effect where basically all of spaces just

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:22.839
<v Speaker 1>filled with junk and becomes unusable. I think that's called

0:35:22.840 --> 0:35:26.560
<v Speaker 1>the Kessler syndrome. Exactly. It's just sort of like your office,

0:35:26.600 --> 0:35:28.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can't get any work done when your

0:35:28.520 --> 0:35:30.880
<v Speaker 1>desk is just like so covered in things you need

0:35:30.920 --> 0:35:33.400
<v Speaker 1>to do that you're like frozen. You're like can't use

0:35:33.440 --> 0:35:35.480
<v Speaker 1>it anymore. Yeah, and that would be horrible for us

0:35:35.520 --> 0:35:37.719
<v Speaker 1>in so many different ways because of all the ways

0:35:37.719 --> 0:35:40.279
<v Speaker 1>our lives rely on satellites at this point. So, in

0:35:40.320 --> 0:35:43.640
<v Speaker 1>the proposals that you've looked at for space based solar power,

0:35:43.800 --> 0:35:47.319
<v Speaker 1>do they propose like regular repair missions or do they

0:35:47.360 --> 0:35:49.439
<v Speaker 1>just plan on these not being up there for so long?

0:35:49.480 --> 0:35:51.440
<v Speaker 1>What do you do about this problem? Yeah, so I

0:35:51.480 --> 0:35:55.239
<v Speaker 1>asked an expert about this, and he basically just accepts

0:35:55.239 --> 0:35:57.520
<v Speaker 1>that you're going to have some losses and that you're

0:35:57.520 --> 0:35:59.600
<v Speaker 1>gonna go up there every year and spend a certain

0:35:59.600 --> 0:36:02.000
<v Speaker 1>amount of money repairing it. And he tries to factor

0:36:02.040 --> 0:36:05.080
<v Speaker 1>that into his accounting, like there's a lot of factors

0:36:05.120 --> 0:36:06.840
<v Speaker 1>to keep track of. There are a lot of factors

0:36:06.880 --> 0:36:08.920
<v Speaker 1>to keep track of, and those factories are probably hard

0:36:08.960 --> 0:36:11.000
<v Speaker 1>to estimate now. And so you know, there's a lot

0:36:11.040 --> 0:36:14.680
<v Speaker 1>of lively debate about whether these estimates for the cost

0:36:14.840 --> 0:36:18.279
<v Speaker 1>of maintenance of space based solar power are reasonable or

0:36:18.480 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 1>wildly optimistic. And that sounds like an exciting topic for

0:36:21.520 --> 0:36:37.600
<v Speaker 1>after our break. So you mentioned that Solkowski, who was

0:36:37.600 --> 0:36:40.239
<v Speaker 1>a Russian guy, was excited about space based solar power

0:36:40.320 --> 0:36:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and the idea has sort of gotten people excited in

0:36:42.160 --> 0:36:44.560
<v Speaker 1>the US. Are those the only countries that are excited

0:36:44.600 --> 0:36:47.120
<v Speaker 1>about this or is this idea taking off in other places?

0:36:47.320 --> 0:36:49.600
<v Speaker 1>It's taking off all around the world. There's a project

0:36:49.640 --> 0:36:52.680
<v Speaker 1>in China called Omega that is aiming to be like

0:36:52.800 --> 0:36:56.879
<v Speaker 1>operational by twenty fifty, which sounds crazy futuristic, but then

0:36:58.080 --> 0:37:01.440
<v Speaker 1>also sounds crazy futuristic, so it's not should have far away.

0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:04.239
<v Speaker 1>And they want to be able to supply two gigawatts

0:37:04.320 --> 0:37:07.200
<v Speaker 1>of power into the Earth's grid, which is not a

0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:10.040
<v Speaker 1>small amount, right to make that much solar power on Earth,

0:37:10.080 --> 0:37:13.360
<v Speaker 1>you did like six million solar panels. So they have

0:37:13.440 --> 0:37:16.279
<v Speaker 1>this project to like actually implement this and I sort

0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:19.000
<v Speaker 1>of like be on the cutting edge of space based

0:37:19.000 --> 0:37:22.400
<v Speaker 1>solar power. And is this a government funded project or

0:37:22.440 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 1>is this just sort of an idea at the moment. No,

0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:26.440
<v Speaker 1>it's a government funded project, and like you know, all

0:37:26.480 --> 0:37:28.759
<v Speaker 1>the ideas in China, all the research in China is

0:37:28.760 --> 0:37:30.719
<v Speaker 1>funded by the government. And it's a funny system the

0:37:30.719 --> 0:37:33.200
<v Speaker 1>way they organize everything over there, but it's definitely government

0:37:33.239 --> 0:37:35.200
<v Speaker 1>funded and it's a project. And you know, the cool

0:37:35.239 --> 0:37:38.080
<v Speaker 1>thing about projects in China is that they can make

0:37:38.200 --> 0:37:41.839
<v Speaker 1>plans for twenty forty years and keep them because they

0:37:41.840 --> 0:37:44.279
<v Speaker 1>don't have a change in government every two four or

0:37:44.320 --> 0:37:47.319
<v Speaker 1>six years where they're changing direction, like throwing up their

0:37:47.320 --> 0:37:50.520
<v Speaker 1>political opponents plans and tearing them up. So one advantage

0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:52.760
<v Speaker 1>of an autocracy is that you can make long read

0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:55.839
<v Speaker 1>science plans and you can stick to them. So that's

0:37:55.840 --> 0:37:59.640
<v Speaker 1>something cool that China can do silver lining. Exactly. They've

0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:01.640
<v Speaker 1>been doing good job of keeping up with their plans

0:38:01.640 --> 0:38:04.040
<v Speaker 1>for like getting humans in space and putting up their

0:38:04.080 --> 0:38:07.240
<v Speaker 1>space stations. They have actually been fairly consistent in their timelines.

0:38:07.280 --> 0:38:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure a U S official at NASA would be

0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:12.400
<v Speaker 1>envious of China's ability to stick to their schedule. Yeah, exactly,

0:38:12.400 --> 0:38:14.200
<v Speaker 1>the trains run on time. But then there are also

0:38:14.239 --> 0:38:16.680
<v Speaker 1>plans involving some folks here in the in the United

0:38:16.680 --> 0:38:19.360
<v Speaker 1>States to build a system that works in Australia. They

0:38:19.400 --> 0:38:21.839
<v Speaker 1>see Australia as a potential good test case. And this

0:38:21.920 --> 0:38:25.000
<v Speaker 1>is a project pioneered by John Minkin, who has spent

0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:27.960
<v Speaker 1>a long time working at NASA and at JPL, and

0:38:27.960 --> 0:38:31.600
<v Speaker 1>he's very excited about the idea of space based solar power.

0:38:32.080 --> 0:38:34.799
<v Speaker 1>And I had a conversation with him about the prospects

0:38:35.000 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 1>and how he sees this working and the challenges involved

0:38:38.200 --> 0:38:40.040
<v Speaker 1>in building this kind of system. Yeah. So one of

0:38:40.040 --> 0:38:42.840
<v Speaker 1>the things I think is interesting about his proposal is

0:38:42.880 --> 0:38:45.399
<v Speaker 1>that earlier in the show, we were talking about maybe

0:38:45.400 --> 0:38:48.280
<v Speaker 1>having like, you know, a giant panel or giant mirror

0:38:48.280 --> 0:38:51.680
<v Speaker 1>that focuses things onto a big panel, and this proposal

0:38:51.719 --> 0:38:54.080
<v Speaker 1>is for lots of tiny pieces, which I think does

0:38:54.120 --> 0:38:56.239
<v Speaker 1>a better job of dealing with the fact that you're

0:38:56.280 --> 0:38:59.280
<v Speaker 1>gonna get damage to them from radiation and micro meteorites.

0:38:59.320 --> 0:39:01.239
<v Speaker 1>It makes it easier to switch them out. What do

0:39:01.280 --> 0:39:03.920
<v Speaker 1>you think about the proposal of using lots of smaller pieces.

0:39:04.040 --> 0:39:06.279
<v Speaker 1>I think it makes a lot of sense. I think

0:39:06.280 --> 0:39:08.520
<v Speaker 1>he's trying to move away from the concept of like,

0:39:08.920 --> 0:39:12.600
<v Speaker 1>let's spend a hundred billion dollars building one Rolls Royce,

0:39:12.880 --> 0:39:16.239
<v Speaker 1>but instead, let's build up the industry to manufacture these

0:39:16.239 --> 0:39:18.480
<v Speaker 1>things and get the economics of scale. And if we

0:39:18.520 --> 0:39:20.839
<v Speaker 1>can produce lots and lots of these things, we can

0:39:20.880 --> 0:39:23.200
<v Speaker 1>get these factories pumping them out, then we can build

0:39:23.200 --> 0:39:26.839
<v Speaker 1>a large system out of small, modular components. So I'm

0:39:26.880 --> 0:39:29.279
<v Speaker 1>impressed that he's actually thinking about, you know, how we

0:39:29.320 --> 0:39:32.480
<v Speaker 1>can get industry connected and drive the prices down to

0:39:32.640 --> 0:39:35.480
<v Speaker 1>make this thing economically feasible. So I think that sounds

0:39:35.480 --> 0:39:37.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot more promising than you know, building one big,

0:39:38.000 --> 0:39:40.319
<v Speaker 1>expensive one which is going to cost a lot of

0:39:40.320 --> 0:39:43.120
<v Speaker 1>money and then need a lot of sort of boutique repairs.

0:39:43.160 --> 0:39:46.720
<v Speaker 1>I was listening to John Mancin's interviewed on The Space

0:39:46.760 --> 0:39:49.120
<v Speaker 1>Show the other night, and he was saying that he

0:39:49.239 --> 0:39:52.160
<v Speaker 1>envisions at some time in the for future will have

0:39:52.480 --> 0:39:54.960
<v Speaker 1>these lots of tiny panels and rather than when one

0:39:54.960 --> 0:39:56.879
<v Speaker 1>gets broken, just kind of throwing it out and being

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:59.440
<v Speaker 1>done with it. You know, it's made of materials that

0:39:59.520 --> 0:40:02.160
<v Speaker 1>if you had a space settlement you might like to

0:40:02.360 --> 0:40:05.160
<v Speaker 1>use again, and so you would go out there and

0:40:05.200 --> 0:40:07.320
<v Speaker 1>you'd sort of just like legos, take out one piece

0:40:07.320 --> 0:40:09.160
<v Speaker 1>and put in another piece. But then you'd take the

0:40:09.160 --> 0:40:12.319
<v Speaker 1>piece you're not using anymore and then break it down

0:40:12.320 --> 0:40:14.360
<v Speaker 1>and use it for something else in your space settlement.

0:40:14.719 --> 0:40:17.560
<v Speaker 1>And you know, that is a super far off idea,

0:40:17.680 --> 0:40:19.720
<v Speaker 1>but I do sort of like the idea of starting

0:40:19.719 --> 0:40:21.759
<v Speaker 1>to think about how we can recycle the stuff that

0:40:21.800 --> 0:40:23.880
<v Speaker 1>we're using in space. I thought that was fun. I

0:40:23.920 --> 0:40:25.880
<v Speaker 1>always get excited when I hear him interviewed because he's

0:40:25.920 --> 0:40:28.680
<v Speaker 1>so enthusiastic, and he makes me enthusiastic. Yeah, he's very

0:40:28.760 --> 0:40:31.400
<v Speaker 1>enthusiastic and I like the idea of space recycling, but

0:40:31.440 --> 0:40:33.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, we haven't even figured out like aluminium recycling

0:40:33.800 --> 0:40:37.360
<v Speaker 1>down here on Earth, so like, where can I recycle

0:40:37.440 --> 0:40:40.000
<v Speaker 1>my aluminium can up in space? It seems like a

0:40:40.080 --> 0:40:42.400
<v Speaker 1>much harder problem. But you know, I do like the

0:40:42.440 --> 0:40:44.840
<v Speaker 1>forward looking nature, the imagining that this is gonna be

0:40:44.880 --> 0:40:48.160
<v Speaker 1>like a whole space based ecosystem in which this concept

0:40:48.200 --> 0:40:50.319
<v Speaker 1>could fit and it can support it and provide it.

0:40:50.360 --> 0:40:52.239
<v Speaker 1>But as with all these things, it's a bit of

0:40:52.239 --> 0:40:54.560
<v Speaker 1>a chicken and egg problem, right. You know, you could

0:40:54.600 --> 0:40:56.960
<v Speaker 1>support these things and if you had all these other elements,

0:40:57.000 --> 0:40:59.600
<v Speaker 1>but then you need, you know, space power to get

0:40:59.600 --> 0:41:02.080
<v Speaker 1>those ments. And so somebody's got to be out there

0:41:02.120 --> 0:41:04.960
<v Speaker 1>advocating for this thing, making it happen, pushing it forward

0:41:05.120 --> 0:41:07.480
<v Speaker 1>so that it does build up that momentum. Anyway, I

0:41:07.520 --> 0:41:09.680
<v Speaker 1>had a fun conversation with John and I asked him

0:41:09.719 --> 0:41:12.799
<v Speaker 1>what he thought was the most promising architecture, how he

0:41:12.800 --> 0:41:14.520
<v Speaker 1>would build this if he was going to build this

0:41:14.560 --> 0:41:18.400
<v Speaker 1>thing today. Here's what John had to say. The architectural

0:41:18.440 --> 0:41:23.160
<v Speaker 1>approach that I think is most promising is one that

0:41:23.400 --> 0:41:29.840
<v Speaker 1>involves a very large number of identical modular system elements,

0:41:30.719 --> 0:41:35.520
<v Speaker 1>probably about ten or twelve different families of these system elements.

0:41:35.640 --> 0:41:39.279
<v Speaker 1>And so the Solar Power satellite, rather than looking like

0:41:39.400 --> 0:41:44.960
<v Speaker 1>a huge conventional spacecraft or like the International Space Station

0:41:45.080 --> 0:41:51.720
<v Speaker 1>or something, instead would very much resemble almost a living organism.

0:41:51.760 --> 0:41:56.320
<v Speaker 1>So like a coral reef comprises trillions of individual coral

0:41:56.640 --> 0:41:59.799
<v Speaker 1>and those of course extraordinarily tiny, but then there are

0:41:59.840 --> 0:42:03.160
<v Speaker 1>all so various fish and an enemies and so on,

0:42:03.560 --> 0:42:07.239
<v Speaker 1>and all of these species cooperate to make what is

0:42:07.360 --> 0:42:11.319
<v Speaker 1>essentially a miniature biosphere out in the midst of the ocean. Yeah.

0:42:11.320 --> 0:42:13.680
<v Speaker 1>So you can hear that, Kelly, how he's describing his

0:42:13.880 --> 0:42:17.440
<v Speaker 1>like swarm of little mini pieces that build up a

0:42:17.560 --> 0:42:20.800
<v Speaker 1>large space farm. I think that's probably a better design

0:42:20.880 --> 0:42:23.719
<v Speaker 1>than the big space solar panel that we talked about

0:42:23.760 --> 0:42:25.440
<v Speaker 1>earlier in the show. Yeah, I think that makes a

0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:27.520
<v Speaker 1>lot more sense. I don't really want somebody building like

0:42:27.560 --> 0:42:30.279
<v Speaker 1>a huge mirror to focus energy and that could be

0:42:30.280 --> 0:42:32.480
<v Speaker 1>potentially used as a weapon. Yeah, no, I agree, We're

0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:35.000
<v Speaker 1>on the same page. So did you ask John, like

0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:37.799
<v Speaker 1>how long you think it would take for this technology

0:42:37.840 --> 0:42:39.200
<v Speaker 1>to mature? So, I know we know a little bit

0:42:39.239 --> 0:42:41.759
<v Speaker 1>about solar panels on the International Space Station, but there's

0:42:41.760 --> 0:42:43.440
<v Speaker 1>probably still a lot of things that we would need

0:42:43.480 --> 0:42:46.239
<v Speaker 1>to figure out to make this all work. Yeah, I did.

0:42:46.560 --> 0:42:48.719
<v Speaker 1>And so I asked him if he thought this is

0:42:48.760 --> 0:42:50.920
<v Speaker 1>like something in the far future that he's laying the

0:42:50.920 --> 0:42:53.120
<v Speaker 1>groundwork for, or something he was going to be like

0:42:53.239 --> 0:42:56.560
<v Speaker 1>alive to actually see in operation. Here's what he had

0:42:56.600 --> 0:43:00.560
<v Speaker 1>to say. The time to develop a modular solar power

0:43:00.600 --> 0:43:05.840
<v Speaker 1>satellite do the first demonstration is like thirty six months.

0:43:06.760 --> 0:43:11.600
<v Speaker 1>The time to develop the first operating pilot plant it's

0:43:11.640 --> 0:43:15.600
<v Speaker 1>like five years. The time to have the first full

0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:20.680
<v Speaker 1>scale solar power satellite delivering thousands of megawatts to the

0:43:20.719 --> 0:43:24.320
<v Speaker 1>ground is like eight or ten years. And it's because

0:43:24.360 --> 0:43:27.439
<v Speaker 1>the pieces are the size of a three or six

0:43:27.520 --> 0:43:31.400
<v Speaker 1>you cubes at There's just a lot of them, and

0:43:31.480 --> 0:43:36.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not this colossus. One single thing is just legos.

0:43:37.600 --> 0:43:41.240
<v Speaker 1>You're just making the moral equivalent of tinker toy pieces

0:43:41.400 --> 0:43:45.200
<v Speaker 1>or lego pieces, and you're plugging them together in space.

0:43:45.440 --> 0:43:46.799
<v Speaker 1>So what do you think about that, Kelly? You think

0:43:46.840 --> 0:43:49.160
<v Speaker 1>this thing is actually gonna be up there in space

0:43:49.280 --> 0:43:52.920
<v Speaker 1>beaming power to Australia in ten years? Well, I have

0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:54.759
<v Speaker 1>a couple. It was the one I don't feel like

0:43:54.760 --> 0:43:57.359
<v Speaker 1>there's enough public push for this technology yet that it's

0:43:57.400 --> 0:44:00.440
<v Speaker 1>going to get enough momentum to happen in years. It

0:44:00.480 --> 0:44:03.000
<v Speaker 1>would be cool if I was wrong. I also think

0:44:03.040 --> 0:44:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the geopolitical stuff might need to be dealt with a

0:44:06.120 --> 0:44:09.160
<v Speaker 1>little bit more carefully and that could flow this technology

0:44:09.200 --> 0:44:12.040
<v Speaker 1>down to So I guess I'm not super optimistic about

0:44:12.040 --> 0:44:13.919
<v Speaker 1>the ten year time point, but it would be great

0:44:13.920 --> 0:44:15.759
<v Speaker 1>if I was wrong. What do you think. I think

0:44:15.800 --> 0:44:19.440
<v Speaker 1>you've got to be aspirational and nobody really believes these projections.

0:44:19.560 --> 0:44:21.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you look at like every single space

0:44:21.600 --> 0:44:25.480
<v Speaker 1>project we've ever launched, it's always had, like, you know,

0:44:25.520 --> 0:44:28.160
<v Speaker 1>a target date well in the past, you know, like

0:44:28.200 --> 0:44:30.520
<v Speaker 1>the James Web Space Telescope, or like look at the

0:44:30.520 --> 0:44:32.759
<v Speaker 1>development of the Space Shuttle. All of these things are

0:44:32.760 --> 0:44:36.279
<v Speaker 1>always like ten thirty years behind. But in order to

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 1>make them happen, you have to sort of push them right.

0:44:38.200 --> 0:44:40.200
<v Speaker 1>You have to say we're aiming for ten years from now,

0:44:40.239 --> 0:44:41.719
<v Speaker 1>and then no, in the back of your mind it's

0:44:41.760 --> 0:44:44.240
<v Speaker 1>going to slip a decade or two. If you say,

0:44:44.360 --> 0:44:46.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is going to happen in fifty years,

0:44:46.680 --> 0:44:48.240
<v Speaker 1>then it's just sort of hard to get it organized.

0:44:48.280 --> 0:44:50.879
<v Speaker 1>It seems like the next generation two problems. Yes, fair enough.

0:44:50.960 --> 0:44:53.120
<v Speaker 1>So I asked John about the economics of it also

0:44:53.200 --> 0:44:55.440
<v Speaker 1>because I was curious, like, how do you think this

0:44:55.520 --> 0:44:57.200
<v Speaker 1>is going to happen? Who's going to pay for this?

0:44:57.480 --> 0:45:00.200
<v Speaker 1>How do you cut down the cost of getting They're

0:45:00.320 --> 0:45:02.319
<v Speaker 1>like having to launch out there in this space to

0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:05.000
<v Speaker 1>actually build these things. And so you can hear John's

0:45:05.080 --> 0:45:09.560
<v Speaker 1>enthusiasm in his response, everybody's got a rocket company, but

0:45:09.840 --> 0:45:13.799
<v Speaker 1>almost nobody is building new kinds of satellites because it's

0:45:13.840 --> 0:45:16.759
<v Speaker 1>just not what they're investing it. We actually think that

0:45:16.800 --> 0:45:19.080
<v Speaker 1>this will be like a snowball. Once this gets going,

0:45:19.719 --> 0:45:22.239
<v Speaker 1>We think lots of people will want to have a play,

0:45:22.280 --> 0:45:26.480
<v Speaker 1>as it's called in space solar power. But we need

0:45:26.480 --> 0:45:30.480
<v Speaker 1>that catalyst. We need a catalyst to do the initial prototyping,

0:45:31.440 --> 0:45:35.160
<v Speaker 1>build these modules, put them together, validate that they work

0:45:35.239 --> 0:45:37.400
<v Speaker 1>the way that they have to work. There's no magic

0:45:37.440 --> 0:45:40.160
<v Speaker 1>in the engineering, but people are gonna want to see

0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:43.799
<v Speaker 1>it once that happens. We see these power plants as

0:45:43.840 --> 0:45:47.719
<v Speaker 1>being developed and deployed through a mixture of more or

0:45:47.800 --> 0:45:54.360
<v Speaker 1>less conventional private sector investment, where private entities invest maybe

0:45:54.840 --> 0:45:57.560
<v Speaker 1>in a new power plant and the rest of your debt.

0:45:57.680 --> 0:46:00.440
<v Speaker 1>The Golden gate Bridge was paid for by It was

0:46:00.480 --> 0:46:04.239
<v Speaker 1>secured by the then newly formed Bank of America. Debt

0:46:04.280 --> 0:46:06.680
<v Speaker 1>helped pay for the big Big in Boston. For the

0:46:06.719 --> 0:46:10.040
<v Speaker 1>full scale systems, it'll be a mix of debt and

0:46:10.280 --> 0:46:13.680
<v Speaker 1>more conventional large scale investors who want to own a

0:46:13.800 --> 0:46:20.120
<v Speaker 1>share of selling two gigawatts per twenty four hours per

0:46:20.239 --> 0:46:24.359
<v Speaker 1>three sixty five days a year forever. So you can

0:46:24.400 --> 0:46:27.360
<v Speaker 1>hear his enthusiasm there, Kelly, He's like hoping that these

0:46:27.400 --> 0:46:29.759
<v Speaker 1>costs are really going to come down, that people are

0:46:29.760 --> 0:46:33.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be developing cheaper launches, and that it's gonna

0:46:33.040 --> 0:46:35.279
<v Speaker 1>be so like the next Gold Rush. And I hope

0:46:35.280 --> 0:46:37.560
<v Speaker 1>he's right. I worry that the cost of solar panels

0:46:37.600 --> 0:46:40.240
<v Speaker 1>going down is going to make this stuff even less likely,

0:46:40.320 --> 0:46:43.000
<v Speaker 1>because it will be easier and easier for more of

0:46:43.080 --> 0:46:45.759
<v Speaker 1>us to put solar panels on our house. And I

0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:49.360
<v Speaker 1>know that doesn't solve the problem about nighttime or clouds.

0:46:49.400 --> 0:46:52.000
<v Speaker 1>But as battery technology gets better too, I wonder if

0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:54.319
<v Speaker 1>we'll be less and less inclined to invest tons of

0:46:54.320 --> 0:46:56.800
<v Speaker 1>money in putting this stuff in space. But again, it

0:46:56.840 --> 0:46:58.920
<v Speaker 1>would be super cool if I was wrong, it would

0:46:58.920 --> 0:47:01.400
<v Speaker 1>be super cool. And I think it's sort of awesome

0:47:01.400 --> 0:47:05.239
<v Speaker 1>to have competing strategies here, right, Like we're pushing on

0:47:05.320 --> 0:47:08.440
<v Speaker 1>space based solar power, but at the same time, you know,

0:47:08.680 --> 0:47:10.640
<v Speaker 1>we are, as you say, trying to make batteries and

0:47:10.680 --> 0:47:13.439
<v Speaker 1>transmission more effective down here on Earth. So who knows

0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:16.880
<v Speaker 1>which technology is gonna win, but definitely humanity is gonna win. Right.

0:47:16.920 --> 0:47:19.759
<v Speaker 1>If either of these things come out being cheaper and

0:47:19.800 --> 0:47:22.520
<v Speaker 1>more robust and more reliable, then we're fine, right. I

0:47:22.520 --> 0:47:24.960
<v Speaker 1>think it would be sort of cooler to have based

0:47:25.000 --> 0:47:27.680
<v Speaker 1>based technology, but I'm a little skeptical of it. I

0:47:27.719 --> 0:47:30.640
<v Speaker 1>read an analysis of John's proposal from another JPO guy,

0:47:30.760 --> 0:47:35.400
<v Speaker 1>Casey Hammer, and he was, to say politely, completely skeptical.

0:47:35.680 --> 0:47:38.000
<v Speaker 1>He was not believing that this thing is ever going

0:47:38.040 --> 0:47:41.200
<v Speaker 1>to be a thing. And his number one problem is

0:47:41.280 --> 0:47:44.719
<v Speaker 1>that he feels like John consistently makes optimistic estimates of

0:47:44.719 --> 0:47:47.960
<v Speaker 1>construction and launch costs by at least an order of

0:47:48.040 --> 0:47:51.879
<v Speaker 1>magnitude beyond current best industry standards. And I think that's

0:47:51.920 --> 0:47:54.279
<v Speaker 1>really the key. And in a conversation I had with John,

0:47:54.440 --> 0:47:57.200
<v Speaker 1>he agreed that the launch costs are probably the most

0:47:57.239 --> 0:47:59.600
<v Speaker 1>expensive part of their system. You've got to go up

0:47:59.640 --> 0:48:01.680
<v Speaker 1>there every year in order to repair this stuff, or

0:48:01.719 --> 0:48:04.239
<v Speaker 1>even just to like send new robots up there to

0:48:04.440 --> 0:48:07.680
<v Speaker 1>repair it. John estimates that would be three percent of

0:48:07.719 --> 0:48:09.560
<v Speaker 1>the cost of the system. So if you have a

0:48:09.560 --> 0:48:12.120
<v Speaker 1>ten billion dollar cost or your Australian system, that you're

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:15.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna be paying essentially another ten billion dollars over the

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:18.520
<v Speaker 1>next ten years to maintain this thing. And according to John,

0:48:18.600 --> 0:48:22.200
<v Speaker 1>the economics workout and you're still making money and you're

0:48:22.200 --> 0:48:24.600
<v Speaker 1>gonna pay off your investors, and so you can attract

0:48:24.719 --> 0:48:27.680
<v Speaker 1>interest from investors because it's gonna be positive cash flow

0:48:27.719 --> 0:48:30.160
<v Speaker 1>in the future. But I think that relies in really

0:48:30.200 --> 0:48:33.400
<v Speaker 1>great detail on those launch costs coming down so quickly,

0:48:33.600 --> 0:48:35.520
<v Speaker 1>and they are coming down pretty quickly. And I'd be

0:48:35.560 --> 0:48:38.600
<v Speaker 1>interested to hear how that three percent in operation cost

0:48:38.680 --> 0:48:41.200
<v Speaker 1>compares to operation costs for the upkeep of like a

0:48:41.239 --> 0:48:44.680
<v Speaker 1>coal power power plant or something. Presumably it's much lower,

0:48:44.680 --> 0:48:46.759
<v Speaker 1>but boy, I need to learn more about power. Yeah,

0:48:46.760 --> 0:48:49.400
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely much lower. I mean, the price of coal

0:48:49.480 --> 0:48:51.799
<v Speaker 1>is ridiculously low. You know, you can buy like a

0:48:51.800 --> 0:48:55.040
<v Speaker 1>ton of coal for tens of dollars. You can build

0:48:55.040 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 1>a coal fired power plant very very cheaply. But then

0:48:58.080 --> 0:48:59.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, then you've got to keep paying for the

0:48:59.480 --> 0:49:02.520
<v Speaker 1>fuel all year. And the nice thing about the fuel

0:49:02.560 --> 0:49:04.719
<v Speaker 1>for your solar power plant is it's free. It just

0:49:04.840 --> 0:49:06.960
<v Speaker 1>comes from the sun. But of course then you've got

0:49:06.960 --> 0:49:09.000
<v Speaker 1>to get into space to repair these things. So I

0:49:09.000 --> 0:49:10.440
<v Speaker 1>think what we're looking at here is sort of a

0:49:10.560 --> 0:49:13.800
<v Speaker 1>race between like bringing down the cost of the launches

0:49:13.960 --> 0:49:16.160
<v Speaker 1>to get up there and to maintain these things, and

0:49:16.280 --> 0:49:19.600
<v Speaker 1>improving solar panels here on Earth. So, Kelly, in the end,

0:49:19.680 --> 0:49:22.759
<v Speaker 1>are you more or less skeptical about the prospects for

0:49:22.840 --> 0:49:26.480
<v Speaker 1>space based solar power? Well, I think the more that

0:49:26.520 --> 0:49:29.279
<v Speaker 1>we talked about the physics, the more concerned I got

0:49:29.360 --> 0:49:32.200
<v Speaker 1>about the equation for balancing it all out. I remain

0:49:32.280 --> 0:49:35.080
<v Speaker 1>hopeful that I'm wrong, and I've actually had so in

0:49:35.200 --> 0:49:37.600
<v Speaker 1>soon ish we wrote a little section about how we

0:49:37.600 --> 0:49:39.480
<v Speaker 1>thought space based solar power was probably not going to

0:49:39.560 --> 0:49:41.440
<v Speaker 1>pan out, and so many nice people have written me

0:49:41.480 --> 0:49:43.280
<v Speaker 1>to be like, no, no, no, you have to be wrong.

0:49:43.560 --> 0:49:45.960
<v Speaker 1>I love this community like it's a bunch of nice

0:49:46.000 --> 0:49:47.880
<v Speaker 1>people who are trying to make the world a better place.

0:49:47.920 --> 0:49:50.400
<v Speaker 1>And I'm still not totally sure about the equations, but

0:49:50.480 --> 0:49:52.160
<v Speaker 1>I do hope that I'm wrong. What do you think

0:49:52.400 --> 0:49:56.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm also skeptical, but I've been skeptical before, and you know,

0:49:56.160 --> 0:49:59.839
<v Speaker 1>there's no limit to human ingenuity, and what it takes

0:49:59.840 --> 0:50:03.040
<v Speaker 1>to it over those problems is believing that it's possible

0:50:03.320 --> 0:50:06.040
<v Speaker 1>and saying, let's work hard on them. Let's figure out

0:50:06.280 --> 0:50:09.040
<v Speaker 1>which part of this problem is the hardest, and let's

0:50:09.160 --> 0:50:11.640
<v Speaker 1>get cracking on it. And I think that's the first step.

0:50:11.719 --> 0:50:15.480
<v Speaker 1>So I'm skeptical little ever happen, but I'm hopeful that

0:50:15.560 --> 0:50:17.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe it might. Well. This community has a lot of

0:50:17.480 --> 0:50:20.320
<v Speaker 1>hard working believers, so if anyone can make it happen,

0:50:20.800 --> 0:50:22.400
<v Speaker 1>I think these people can make it happen. So I

0:50:22.400 --> 0:50:24.840
<v Speaker 1>guess we'll see. But I'm not investing in any of

0:50:24.880 --> 0:50:27.800
<v Speaker 1>these projects personally, so that maybe that tells you a

0:50:27.960 --> 0:50:30.680
<v Speaker 1>more personal level whether I believe it's actually gonna work. Yeah,

0:50:30.880 --> 0:50:33.040
<v Speaker 1>same here. All right, Well, thanks for listening to us

0:50:33.080 --> 0:50:35.839
<v Speaker 1>talk about space based solar power. You know, I think

0:50:35.840 --> 0:50:38.560
<v Speaker 1>the humanity does have a future out there in space,

0:50:38.800 --> 0:50:41.440
<v Speaker 1>but there's definitely a lot of horror problems to solve

0:50:41.560 --> 0:50:44.239
<v Speaker 1>along the way. Amen, and thanks again to Kelly for

0:50:44.320 --> 0:50:46.279
<v Speaker 1>joining us. Thanks again for the invitation. I had a

0:50:46.320 --> 0:50:49.240
<v Speaker 1>blast as always. All Right, everybody out there, so stay curious,

0:50:49.480 --> 0:50:52.000
<v Speaker 1>keep asking questions, and if you'd like us to talk

0:50:52.040 --> 0:50:55.560
<v Speaker 1>about some other crazy futuristic technology and how the physics

0:50:55.560 --> 0:50:57.800
<v Speaker 1>of it might work and whether they're gonna be building

0:50:57.840 --> 0:51:00.680
<v Speaker 1>death rays to shoot into your bedroom, ease right to

0:51:00.760 --> 0:51:03.960
<v Speaker 1>us two questions at Daniel and Jorge dot com. Tune

0:51:04.000 --> 0:51:14.560
<v Speaker 1>in next time. Bye, thanks for listening, and remember that

0:51:14.680 --> 0:51:17.440
<v Speaker 1>Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe is a production of

0:51:17.520 --> 0:51:20.879
<v Speaker 1>I Heart Radio or more podcast from my heart Radio.

0:51:21.040 --> 0:51:24.600
<v Speaker 1>Visit the I Heart Radio Apple Apple Podcasts, or wherever

0:51:24.719 --> 0:51:28.360
<v Speaker 1>you listen to your favorite shows. H