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Speaker 1: Hey, Kelly, do you guys have solar power over there

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Speaker 1: at the science farm? We do. We actually pretty recently

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Speaker 1: installed solar panels on top of one of our barns.

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Speaker 1: And so does it give you like all the energy

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Speaker 1: you could ever want? No, not all the energy we

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Speaker 1: could ever want. I married a man who would like

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Speaker 1: to build a giant laser, and so he's always going

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Speaker 1: to be disappointed. But it gives us some power. Well,

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Speaker 1: does it give you all the energy you need? I

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Speaker 1: mean not quite. It's cloudy where we live, and then

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Speaker 1: there's nighttime and the batteries aren't quite up to the task.

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Speaker 1: Who needs energy at nighttime? Jeez? Or like in the winter,

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Speaker 1: you guys are way too demanding. Yeah, we could just

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Speaker 1: put on like five layers of socks. That might get

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Speaker 1: hard for Zac to wear socks and sandals, but I'm

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Speaker 1: sure he'd persevere. Hi. I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist,

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Speaker 1: and I'm the co host of our podcast, Daniel and

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Speaker 1: Jorge Explain the Universe. And I'm Kelly Weener Smith. I'm

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Speaker 1: an adjunct professor with Rice University and I study parasites.

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Speaker 1: And welcome to the podcast, in which we talk about

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Speaker 1: everything out there in the universe, the tiny little particles

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Speaker 1: that wiggle around beneath your toes and in your toes,

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Speaker 1: and the huge mysteries of the universe, how it began,

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Speaker 1: how it will end, how it all works. We talked

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Speaker 1: about all that crazy stuff and try to break it

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Speaker 1: down and explain it to you. My normal co host,

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Speaker 1: Jorge cham the creator PhD Comics, isn't here today, but

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Speaker 1: we're very lucky to have our returning regular guest host,

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Speaker 1: Kelly Wiener Smith. Kelly, thanks for joining us again. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: my pleasure. I'm excited to be back. It's a lot

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Speaker 1: of fun. Well, we try to have fun, and we

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Speaker 1: also try to talk about the science. And we talked

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Speaker 1: about the mysteries of the universe. We talked about the

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Speaker 1: tiny little particles, but we also like to talk about

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Speaker 1: how things work and whether things will work. We'd like

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Speaker 1: to explore technologies. We've talked to this podcast about how

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Speaker 1: l e Ed's work. We've talked about how solar panels work,

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Speaker 1: and we've talked about things like space elevators. And I

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Speaker 1: understand Kelly, that you're becoming something of an expert in

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Speaker 1: how space technology and space colonization works. Yeah, our upcoming

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Speaker 1: book is sort of on that topic. So we've been

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Speaker 1: spending a lot of time reading about these sorts of things,

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Speaker 1: and soon has had a chapter on space elevators. And

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Speaker 1: are you excited to think about this kind of stuff

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Speaker 1: because you think like everything in the future will be

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Speaker 1: based in space, of space farms and space schools and

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Speaker 1: space grocery stores. Well, I have the sense that we

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Speaker 1: are maybe a little bit too overly optimistic about how

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Speaker 1: great it's going to be to live in space. But

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Speaker 1: I do think that at some point we'll have space

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Speaker 1: settlements and we'll have lots of cool stuff going on

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Speaker 1: in space. And how we're going to power all of

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Speaker 1: that and and make this awful environment habitable is a

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Speaker 1: very interesting question, I think, because it is kind of

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Speaker 1: an awful environment. I think it's amazing that spaces is

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Speaker 1: sort of like cool sheen to it, right, and it

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Speaker 1: is some out there, it's like part of the universe,

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Speaker 1: But it's also kind of awful, right. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: like not a cozy place to be, no. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think you look at a picture of the Moon

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Speaker 1: are Mars, and you can sort of imagine places on

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Speaker 1: Earth that looks sort of similar and sort of convince

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Speaker 1: yourself like, oh, it's not that different, but no, it's

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Speaker 1: super different, and it's super unpleasant and it's definitely trying

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Speaker 1: to kill you all the time. And that really makes

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Speaker 1: us cherish life down here on Earth. You know, we

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Speaker 1: are really lucky to get to live in this warm,

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Speaker 1: atmospheric little slice of the universe that's wet but not

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Speaker 1: too wet and has all the right conditions for our

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Speaker 1: kind of life and our cozy lifestyle. And so I

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Speaker 1: think another way to look at space is like as

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Speaker 1: a resource, a way to support and improve life here

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Speaker 1: on Earth, rather than as an alternate for life on Earth.

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Speaker 1: And I think there's a lot of enthusiasm about that.

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Speaker 1: But I also think there's a lot of reasons why

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Speaker 1: getting things from space to Earth is really difficult, and

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Speaker 1: those are maybe some of the big things we need

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Speaker 1: to overcome so that we can make space improve our

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Speaker 1: lives down here. Right, We need like a better highway

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Speaker 1: between here and space so we can take better advantage

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Speaker 1: of all of its resources, yes, exactly. And also we

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Speaker 1: have to be careful about Earth being a gravity well,

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Speaker 1: so you don't bring, for example, an asteroid with great

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Speaker 1: resources too close and then have a sort of dinosaur

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Speaker 1: event happen again. So it's a little sensitive talk about

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Speaker 1: cell phones. Right, Oops? Ye, right, whoops, extinction level event.

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Speaker 1: My bad. Well, one of the big issues of course

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Speaker 1: facing us down here on Earth is energy and how

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Speaker 1: to get clean sources of renewable energy that are cheap

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Speaker 1: and that are easy to distribute, and that are consistent,

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Speaker 1: and that can heat your toes on a cold winter night,

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Speaker 1: even on the science farm. So what are some proposals. Well,

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Speaker 1: obviously there's been a big surge down here on Earth

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Speaker 1: of solar panels and green energies such as wind, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So that's been helping a little bit. But I get

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Speaker 1: a little worried when I look at these projections from

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Speaker 1: the I p c C about like the various paths

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Speaker 1: we're going on if we only use like twenty or

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Speaker 1: thirty or fifty renewable energies for the next few years,

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Speaker 1: like the nerves for increasing global surface warming temperatures still

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Speaker 1: look pretty dire. Yeah, and I'm not super optimistic that

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Speaker 1: we'll be able to switch to more climate friendly technologies

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Speaker 1: like nuclear because they have sort of other big downsides

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Speaker 1: when you've got humans using it. Absolutely and so people

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Speaker 1: have been talking about crazy new proposals to supercharge our

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Speaker 1: solar power industry, to make it much more efficient, much

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Speaker 1: more dramatic, much more available by connecting it to space. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so what would that look like? How the heck do

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Speaker 1: you do that? And that's the topic of today's podcast.

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Speaker 1: Today on the program, we're asking the question is space

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Speaker 1: based solar power realistic? Because you know, we can talk

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Speaker 1: about space based whatever, and you can spend ten billion

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Speaker 1: dollars doing some proof of principle or a hundred billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: But if we're going to talk about something like delivering

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Speaker 1: power to people down here on Earth, it's got to

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Speaker 1: be economical, right, It's got to be robust, it's got

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Speaker 1: to be actually realistic. We've got to be developing an

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Speaker 1: industry people actually want to invest in and work in,

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Speaker 1: not just some fancy thing for a nationalistic pride. Totally

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Speaker 1: and so okay, So we've got solar panels on Earth,

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Speaker 1: and the price of solar panels is plumbing quickly. So,

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Speaker 1: like Zach and I've been together for something like fourteen

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Speaker 1: years now, and almost every year in our relationship we've

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Speaker 1: checked the price of solar panels just because we're both

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Speaker 1: excited about renewable energy, and last year we were like,

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Speaker 1: we can afford it now, And partly that was because

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Speaker 1: of tax credits and stuff, but also it's because the

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Speaker 1: price of these panels is going down a lot. And

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Speaker 1: so when you can put these cheap panels on your house,

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Speaker 1: is why would you bother putting them in space? Right?

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Speaker 1: So let's dig into that in a moment, But first

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you, like, what made you pull

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Speaker 1: the trigger? Was it really like it's below the threshold

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Speaker 1: where we can afford it. We keep looking at this

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Speaker 1: and keep thinking, you know what, next year they'll be cheaper.

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Speaker 1: If we just wait another year, they'll be cheaper. So

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Speaker 1: at what point do you decide, well, they're cheap enough

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Speaker 1: and now is the time to buy them. So I

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Speaker 1: think the trigger for us was that there was a

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Speaker 1: tax break for something like thirty percent where the cost

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Speaker 1: of the solar panels you could apply to your taxes,

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Speaker 1: and that was set to expire, and so we decided

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Speaker 1: we needed to do it right away. And actually a

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Speaker 1: bunch of the local solar companies were just way overburdened

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Speaker 1: because a bunch of people must have made that same

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Speaker 1: calculation just a couple of months before the taxes were

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Speaker 1: about to expire, and so for us, it was the

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Speaker 1: tax break that made us decide we weren't going to

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Speaker 1: wait for the price to go down anymore because we

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Speaker 1: thought it would be a while. And also we had

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Speaker 1: finally purchased our own house, and this is something we

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Speaker 1: had been, you know, dreaming about for a long time,

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Speaker 1: so we decided it was time to go for it.

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Speaker 1: And it's really interesting to see the evolution of this.

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Speaker 1: Twenty or ten years ago, solar panels were really pretty expensive,

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Speaker 1: they were hard to make, they didn't last very long.

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Speaker 1: We weren't that good, but you know, people were buying them,

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Speaker 1: and the industry got started and the government gave it

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Speaker 1: some pushes, and now we have this very vibrant solar

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Speaker 1: panel industry where the prices are falling rapidly and lots

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Speaker 1: of people are buying them, and so it's sort of

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Speaker 1: builds on itself. It's sort of like consumer electronics, you know,

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Speaker 1: once it gets going and the big marketplace comes in

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Speaker 1: with all of his cap at all, than things that

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Speaker 1: just get cheaper and cheaper and easier and easier and

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Speaker 1: better and better. But one thing that is not getting

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Speaker 1: cheaper and cheaper as fast as I think we would

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Speaker 1: like is the batteries that go with the solar panels.

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Speaker 1: So we live out in the middle of nowhere, and

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Speaker 1: we sometimes will lose power for like a week. The

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Speaker 1: previous owner at least told us that, and so we

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Speaker 1: asked the solar panel company, like, so we should buy batteries, right,

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Speaker 1: and we'll store up a week of power and when

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Speaker 1: our power goes out in the middle of winter, we'll

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Speaker 1: live off of the batteries. And the guy was like, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: you should still buy a propane power generator because the

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Speaker 1: batteries are way too expensive. We're not there yet. That's

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Speaker 1: totally not worth it. And so I feel like solar

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Speaker 1: isn't going to be a really great solution until you

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Speaker 1: can actually be storing the power from the sun even

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Speaker 1: when you don't need it. And the things like Tesla

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Speaker 1: are helping to drive down the cost of these batteries

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Speaker 1: because they're you know, making them more efficient and better

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Speaker 1: to put in electric cars. But I think it's still

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Speaker 1: in a lot of cases, the technology is still not

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Speaker 1: there yet at a reasonable price point. And I think

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Speaker 1: you put your finger on what motivates space based solar power,

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Speaker 1: which is that you can't get solar power on Earth

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, three sixty five days a

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Speaker 1: year because it's nighttime sometimes and you know it's cloudy sometimes,

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Speaker 1: and so what if you could like beam that power

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Speaker 1: from space anytime, any day, no matter how cold it

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Speaker 1: is and how overcast it is. But we'll get into

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Speaker 1: that in a moment. First, we surveyed our listeners to

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Speaker 1: hear what they thought about the prospects of having solar

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Speaker 1: power come down from space. So thank you to everybody

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Speaker 1: who volunteered to answer random questions on the internet. If

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Speaker 1: you're excited to participate and hear your voice speculating baselessly

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Speaker 1: in the future, please write to us two questions at

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Speaker 1: Daniel and Jorge dot com. So here's what people had

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Speaker 1: to say. I think, yes, maybe not for us on

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Speaker 1: the ground, to to the limits of currently available extension codes,

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Speaker 1: but definitely important for everyone who is or regis stationed

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Speaker 1: in space. I think it is uh something is I'm

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Speaker 1: assuming that would be either a dison sphere or a

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Speaker 1: the what you call it solar solar sale. I think

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Speaker 1: very large scale is impossible. I don't think we have

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Speaker 1: enough matter in the Solar system to make a dicen sphere. Um,

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Speaker 1: but I think some things can be made of it.

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Speaker 1: I guess the problem would be getting the power from

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Speaker 1: space down to Earth. Again. Um, I guess it would

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Speaker 1: be a good idea to have solar panels outside of

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Speaker 1: the Ear's atmosphere because you probably get more power because

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Speaker 1: there's no clouds and things. But then you'd have to

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Speaker 1: get the power down to the surface. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you can beam power? Is that too star

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Speaker 1: Trek I don't know. Um. Otherwise you could do it

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Speaker 1: with batteries, I guess, and then transport it, but that

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Speaker 1: would be very expensive. Space based solar power is not

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Speaker 1: realistic now because I don't think we know how to

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Speaker 1: get the power back to the Earth. If we're going

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Speaker 1: to use it on the Earth, I feel like that

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Speaker 1: would be a very hard engineering problem. Like we we

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Speaker 1: already have trouble sending solar power distances here on Earth.

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Speaker 1: So if it's collected in space, that seems logistically like impossible. Well,

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Speaker 1: it depends how the technology will evolve, but for now, no,

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Speaker 1: But who knows how what we will do in the

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Speaker 1: future why not? So what do you think of their answers, Kelly,

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Speaker 1: I thought those were super interesting answers, and I thought

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Speaker 1: they brought up some important points, like how do you

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Speaker 1: get the power back to Earth? So they were well

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Speaker 1: thought out answers. What about you. I heard a lot

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Speaker 1: of skepticism there, which I think is well motivated. There's

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Speaker 1: at least one person who misunderstood the question. I think

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Speaker 1: I was talking about like solar sales and whether you

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Speaker 1: could sail on photons from stars while you're sort of

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Speaker 1: far away from a solar system, which is another totally

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Speaker 1: fascinating question and would require like massive lasers to push

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Speaker 1: on those solar sales. But I think the question of

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Speaker 1: like building solar power in space and beaming it down

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Speaker 1: to Earth does seem pretty complicated and problematic. But you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe we're is that the early stages of this industry,

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Speaker 1: back when solar panels on your roof were expensive and

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Speaker 1: flaky and hard to arrange. Maybe we're just sort of

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Speaker 1: in the early days and we need to sort of

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Speaker 1: get the ball rolling. Anyway, we'll dig into it. So

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Speaker 1: you mentioned in the IBCC reports that it just didn't

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Speaker 1: seem like renewables were maybe going to be enough to

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Speaker 1: deal with the climate change problem, like what is holding

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Speaker 1: us back? Why can't we just use renewables for all

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Speaker 1: of our energy and you know, stop using things like coal. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: I think you put your finger on it earlier, which

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Speaker 1: is that you don't get sunlight all the time. And

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Speaker 1: in some cases there are places where you get like

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Speaker 1: a lot of sunlight exactly when you need it. For example,

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Speaker 1: if you live in Arizona and you need energy in

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Speaker 1: order to cool your house, then you're getting a lot

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Speaker 1: of sunlight right when you need to cool the house.

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Speaker 1: Sins to the energy production produced by the solar panels

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Speaker 1: are very close to the energy needs where you need

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Speaker 1: it to drive that air conditioning. But that's not always

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Speaker 1: the case. If, for example, you're living in the dark,

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Speaker 1: cold northern Scandinavian winter, then you're not getting a lot

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Speaker 1: of solar power and you need power in the winter

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Speaker 1: to stay warm. And so the bottle neck there is,

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Speaker 1: as you said earlier, storage and transportation, Like you could

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Speaker 1: have a huge solar farm somewhere in the Sahara or

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Speaker 1: in the Mojave Desert that produces enough powerful whole country,

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Speaker 1: but getting it from there to somewhere else and storing

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Speaker 1: it is very, very expensive. Battery technology and transmission losses

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Speaker 1: make it essentially totally uneconomical. Okay, so solar panels are

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Speaker 1: just never going to take care of some parts of Earth,

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Speaker 1: that's right, because they can't get energy twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day and they can't get energy three sixty five

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Speaker 1: days a year. And a similar problem for wind. Right

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Speaker 1: wind also directly produces electricity, and electricity is hard to

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Speaker 1: store efficiently and hard to transfer efficiently. Is this the

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Speaker 1: kind of thing where if we improved our grid dramatically

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Speaker 1: things could improve a lot? Or are we limited by

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Speaker 1: the physics of transmission loss as you go, even with

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Speaker 1: a great grid, we still couldn't get the power to

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Speaker 1: place as we need it. Transmission losses are pretty tough,

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Speaker 1: and we're talking about you know, across the country or

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Speaker 1: across the world when we're talking about storage, and storage

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Speaker 1: is pretty expensive. So you know, you can't rule out

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Speaker 1: future breakthroughs in battery technology. And actually, we're gonna do

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Speaker 1: an episode in a few weeks about electric airplanes, which

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Speaker 1: require innovation in batteries to make them lighter and more powerful,

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Speaker 1: but current ideas don't have us getting there, and so

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Speaker 1: we have this limitation of just sort of producing the

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Speaker 1: power at the right time and in the right place

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Speaker 1: where it needs to be used. All right, So solar

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Speaker 1: power is great, but you've got these problems with trying

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Speaker 1: to get it from place to place and problems with

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Speaker 1: not having enough of it in some of the places

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Speaker 1: that you need it. How does spending the incredible cost

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Speaker 1: of putting solar power in space help us overcome these problems. Well,

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Speaker 1: the basic idea is that it's always sunny in space,

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Speaker 1: So you can have these solar panels up in space

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Speaker 1: and they're always seeing the sun. Right, they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: a high enough orbit that they're not gonna be in

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Speaker 1: the Earth's shadow for very long at all, like a

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Speaker 1: very tiny fraction of their time. And of course they're

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Speaker 1: above the clouds, and so they have basically continuous generation

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Speaker 1: of power. And you know a lot of energy is

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Speaker 1: lost when the sunlight passes through the atmosphere. It's like

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Speaker 1: reflection and absorption and that kind of stuff. So the

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Speaker 1: idea is that you start out collecting much more solar

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Speaker 1: power five six, seven, eight times as much as the

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Speaker 1: equivalent ground based array, and so that provides you the

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Speaker 1: ability to gather more power and also to gather power

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Speaker 1: all the time. And because you're in space, you can

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Speaker 1: reach anyone who might need that power anywhere? Is that

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Speaker 1: the idea? So like you can get those people who

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Speaker 1: are living in Norway in the winter. Yeah. So that's

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Speaker 1: the other issue is like you generate this power in space,

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Speaker 1: then what do you do with it? Right, Because we

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Speaker 1: have already solar panels in space, like every satellite that's

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Speaker 1: out there, and the I s S has solar panels.

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Speaker 1: It's a very well established way to generate power in

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Speaker 1: space for use in space. But you want to generate

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Speaker 1: power in space and then use it to build you know,

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Speaker 1: Zack's big laser or whatever, then you need to get

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Speaker 1: it down to Earth. Right. So you might be imagining

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Speaker 1: like big wires draped from satellites down to Earth. Obviously

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Speaker 1: that's not gonna work, right, huge problems there, and so

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Speaker 1: the idea is to beam it down to Earth. So

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Speaker 1: you collect the power in space and then you transform

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Speaker 1: it into microwaves or lasers and beam that down to

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Speaker 1: Earth to some receiver which then picks it up. And

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Speaker 1: we have a fair amount of experience with working with

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Speaker 1: solar powers and space, right, So you mentioned the I S.

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Speaker 1: S has solar panels, solute Skylab mirror. They probably all

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Speaker 1: I'm fairly certain they all had solar panels. Also, the

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Speaker 1: rovers on Mars have solar panels yep, yep, yep. And

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Speaker 1: so we have some information about how solar panels persist

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Speaker 1: in a vacuum and how long they survive and how

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Speaker 1: well they do as they move in and out of

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Speaker 1: the sunlight. So which would mean they're dealing with these

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Speaker 1: massive temperature changes as you go in the area where

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Speaker 1: you get hit with the sun versus when you go

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Speaker 1: in the shadow of the Earth. And so I guess

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Speaker 1: we have a fair bit of information about the use

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Speaker 1: of solar panels in space. Do you think that's fair

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Speaker 1: to say? Yeah, I think we definitely have some experience.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the history of repair is for

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Speaker 1: those missions, if they're like constantly repairing and replenishing the

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Speaker 1: solar panels on the I. S. S. Because of micromedia,

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Speaker 1: it's a radiation damage. So how long have people been

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Speaker 1: thinking about this idea? Is this like a brand new

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Speaker 1: idea or an idea that's sort of been floating around

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Speaker 1: for a while. I was doing a little bit of reading,

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Speaker 1: and it turns out this is an idea that's been

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Speaker 1: bubbling up for decades. Actually, there was a first paper

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Speaker 1: about it by a Russian scientist who the name I

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Speaker 1: camp pronounce can pronounce that name, Konstantine Solkovski. There you

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Speaker 1: go in the nineteen twenties and sort of speculative idea,

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Speaker 1: and then I think it's sort of burst into public

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Speaker 1: imagination because of a short story by Isaac Asimov. He

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Speaker 1: had this device where he would collect solar power and

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Speaker 1: then beam it to various planets, like around the Solar System,

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Speaker 1: but you know, that's science fiction. And then it trickled

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Speaker 1: back into academia. In the late sixties there was a

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Speaker 1: paper by Peter Glazer sort of like trying to take

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Speaker 1: this topic seriously and break it down and ask the

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Speaker 1: questions about what would work and how much it would cost.

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Speaker 1: So it's been bubbling around for you know, several decades,

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Speaker 1: and now people are really starting to work on it,

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Speaker 1: developing the technologies, thinking about how to beam it down

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Speaker 1: to Earth, how to make it economical. The advent of

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Speaker 1: cheap launches from companies like SpaceX or bringing like you know,

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Speaker 1: into the realm of the possible. All right, So let's

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Speaker 1: take a moment to talk more about the fine details

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Speaker 1: of what exactly would need to happen in order to

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Speaker 1: make this technology work after we take a quick break. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So it's a little hard for me to imagine all

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Speaker 1: of the details about what will the solar panels look like,

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Speaker 1: how much energy will they be creating, do they need

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Speaker 1: to be repaired? How do you get the power down

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Speaker 1: to Earth? So can you give us some more details

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Speaker 1: about how this is all going to come together. So

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of different ideas for how to make

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Speaker 1: this work, lots of different sort of conceptions. Some of

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Speaker 1: them have, for example, huge mirrors that focus light onto

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Speaker 1: a few solar cells and gathered together, so you're like

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Speaker 1: capturing sunlight from a large area and then focusing onto

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Speaker 1: just a few solar cells. Other ideas are just have

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Speaker 1: like massive sheets of solar cells just like you know,

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Speaker 1: lots and lots and lots of them to capture the energy.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of different sort of strategies for

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Speaker 1: how to build this thing and how to make it work.

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Speaker 1: And we'll talk maybe in a little bit about which

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Speaker 1: ones are more economical and which ones are more feasible,

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Speaker 1: But one of the biggest questions to have to deal

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Speaker 1: with is how to get this power down to Earth? Right?

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Speaker 1: And it seems a little weird, like you collect the

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Speaker 1: power up in space and then you need to beam

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Speaker 1: it down to Earth. It's a little counterintuitive because it

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Speaker 1: was already sort of getting beamed down to Earth, Like

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Speaker 1: the Sun is already beaming it's power to Earth, right,

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Speaker 1: So like why do you need to capture it and

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Speaker 1: then like beaming down to Earth. I was thinking initially,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's more energetic, maybe they're like focusing, so the

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Speaker 1: beam of power from the space array of solar panels

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Speaker 1: is like more intense than sunlight. But that's not actually

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Speaker 1: the case, and that would actually be quite dangerous because

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Speaker 1: that's basically building like a huge space weapon and shooting

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Speaker 1: it at the Earth. And so there's this limitation where

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Speaker 1: you basically can't beam down energy at higher intensity than

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Speaker 1: natural sunlight. So when I hear that, my first thought is, well,

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Speaker 1: then obviously it's not worth it. So what am I

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Speaker 1: not understanding? No, that's a very reasonable reaction, because you

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Speaker 1: have to like build this space array to capture the

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Speaker 1: energy and then beaming down to Earth and then you

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Speaker 1: still need to build on array on Earth that's you know,

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Speaker 1: about the same size, because if you want to capture

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Speaker 1: this energy on Earth, you need to build something that's

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Speaker 1: going to grab it. And for example, if you're using microwaves,

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Speaker 1: microwaves have a really long wavelength, and so you might

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Speaker 1: need for example, like a rays on Earth that are

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Speaker 1: one to three kilometers wide just to capture this energy.

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Speaker 1: And if that energy doesn't have more intensity than sunlight,

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Speaker 1: you might as well just have built a ground based

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Speaker 1: solar panel right there. Right, why capture in terms of

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Speaker 1: microwaves from space instead of just like a natural sunlight

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Speaker 1: falling on the Earth. And the answer is that the

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Speaker 1: source of light from space should be more constant, right Like,

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Speaker 1: if you're on Earth and you're just lying on sunlight,

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Speaker 1: then you're not going to be getting it at nighttime,

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Speaker 1: and you're not gonna be getting when it's cloudy. And

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Speaker 1: people who don't live in southern California like I do,

432
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 1: know that they don't get more than a few hours

433
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 1: of like really equivalent solid sunlight on an average day.

434
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 1: So the difference is that it should be constant, that

435
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 1: you should be always getting this microwave power beamed down

436
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, sixty five days a year.

437
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: So the power we get sent to some giant station

438
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: that collects it, and then it would be sent through

439
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 1: the grid to our houses. And you could have several

440
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: stations scattered all around, and the solar panels in space

441
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 1: could direct the energy where it's needed, so it's not

442
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: like linked up necessarily for all time. Between one set

443
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: of solar panels in space and a receiving station on Earth,

444
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: you could decide, oh, Australia needs more power, or oh

445
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 1: we need more power in Scandinavia, and you could redirect

446
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: this power as needed. Because you're just pointing it from space.

447
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: It's like you're shooting it from space down to the

448
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 1: receiver on Earth and that would be sent as microwaves.

449
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 1: So there are two sort of technologies people are considering.

450
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 1: One is marcro waves and the other is lasers. Micro Waves,

451
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: you know, are just photons. There's just another kind of light,

452
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: but it's light with a very specific wavelength. It's the

453
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: same kind of radiation, same kind of light that exists

454
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: in your microwave oven to heat up your food. So

455
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: you know, if you beam microwaves at something, you will

456
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: heat it up. They contain power, and the microwave is

457
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: just tell you, like roughly what the wavelength is of

458
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 1: the light. And so we're talking about centimeter length wavelengths,

459
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: which is not actually that small, you know, compared to

460
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: like visible light, but it's micro compared to you know,

461
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: like much longer wavelengths radio light. And so these are

462
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: great because they can pass through clouds. For example, so

463
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 1: you shoot a microwave, it's basically clouds are invisible to it.

464
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: The clouds are totally transparent, and so that's pretty nice.

465
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: And these things could be like up really far away

466
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: in sort of middle Earth orbit or geosynchronous orbit, like

467
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: thirty five kilometers above the Earth, and they could beam

468
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: the light down in terms of microwaves, and then on

469
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: the Earth surface you just need some sort of like

470
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: microwave antenna which is just like a big chain link

471
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 1: fence essentially to capture these microwaves. So this might be

472
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: a silly question, and but so I wouldn't want to

473
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: be in my microwave. That would be a bad place

474
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: to be. Do you have to worry about, like if

475
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: a plane passes underneath the microwaves that are getting sent

476
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: down to the power stations on Earth. Would that be

477
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: a problem or or not. It's not a sarily question

478
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 1: at all. I don't want to be in a microwave either,

479
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: especially a space based microwave. They could like track me

480
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: and shoot me wherever I go. The idea is to

481
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: limit the intensity to the intensity of normal sunlight, so

482
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: you don't get any problems like that because you don't

483
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: just have to worry about airplanes. What about like birds.

484
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: You don't want to create like a death zone where

485
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 1: you have like a column of birds that are like

486
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: constantly dying and falling onto your microwave array because you're

487
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: killing them more insects or anything else, right, you don't

488
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 1: want to be changing the weather. So that's why they

489
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 1: limited to the roughly the intensity of natural life. But

490
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 1: that is definitely an experiment. When we talked once on

491
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 1: this program about five G, which operates in the same

492
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: sort of wavelengths, we don't have sort of knowledge about

493
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: what it's like to live under low intensity constant sources

494
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 1: of micro way of radiation because people haven't done it before.

495
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: So we might discover some bad news, some bad consequences

496
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: of this if you live near the station. But current

497
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: understanding of physics and biology, is that that wouldn't be

498
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,199
Speaker 1: dangerous to humans, Okay? And then different questions. So you

499
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: had mentioned that the solar panels would be in geosynchronous orbit,

500
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 1: and geosynchronous orbit is like really high up. So the

501
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: International Space Station is in low Earth orbit. Geosynchronous orbit,

502
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: as I understand it is really high up, and that's

503
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 1: where you need it to make sure that an object

504
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: stays over the same spot in Earth all the time.

505
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: And so if you are super far away, like farther

506
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: than where a lot of those satellites, you know starlink

507
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: for example, is do you lose power on the way

508
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: and is that a problem or do microwaves not sort

509
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 1: of dissipate over distance. You definitely lose power and that's

510
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 1: definitely a problem, and when we talk about the economics

511
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: of it, that's definitely an issue. You can't transmit energy

512
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 1: efficiently basically, ever, and if you're beaming power over long distances,

513
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: you're also going to lose some power. They're hoping for

514
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: efficiencies of like fifty to eighty percent. They actually have

515
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: done some tests they beamed power using microwaves. This is

516
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: the test they did in Hawaii and went for a

517
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 1: hundred miles and they're able to get reasonable efficiency, but

518
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: it's definitely an issue at every stage you're gonna be

519
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: losing some energy. You know, converting the sunlight into electricity

520
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: is like maybe thirty efficient if you think very optimistically,

521
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: and then transforming that into microwaves is not gonna be

522
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: hundredsent efficient. And then the transmission down to Earth that's

523
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 1: not going to be hundredsent efficient, and then the conversion

524
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: from microwaves back to electricity is not going to be

525
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 1: a hundred percent efficient. And so you multiply all these

526
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 1: numbers together and starts to get smaller and smaller. So

527
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: this whole question of whether it's feasible relies on balancing

528
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: this like a multiplier factor of your getting more power

529
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: consistently with the expense factor of you've got more steps

530
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 1: in the chain where you're gonna lose efficiency. And also

531
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: it's pretty expensive chain to build. I mean, this thing

532
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: is going to be in space. That all sounds super complicated.

533
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: So you had mentioned they could do microwaves or lasers.

534
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 1: Do lasers make any of those equations play a little

535
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: bit more nicely? So microwaves and lasers the two ideas

536
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 1: lasers are a different idea, and the goal here is

537
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 1: to make smaller devices because lasers can be more focused

538
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: and they can be narrower beams just because the frequency

539
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: of the light is higher and so it doesn't like

540
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 1: disperse as much as it comes down to Earth. And

541
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: so for example, you can have like a two meter

542
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: wide beam instead of a one kilometer wide beam, so

543
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: you can have like smaller stations where you're capturing this energy.

544
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: You don't need to have like a massive area on

545
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: the Earth. It's like a more intense, narrow focused beam.

546
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: And the idea there is that also the lasers could

547
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: be closer, like they don't need to be as far away,

548
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: so you can have like a larger number of smaller

549
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: satellites beaming the energy down with lasers instead of microwaves.

550
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: But of course, you know there's some dangers. They're like

551
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: you're talking about more intensity in your beam. You talk

552
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 1: about literally shooting lasers at the Earth from space. That

553
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: gives me the Heabie gps, so it gives me the

554
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: hebe gep is too. But like microwaves, is it the

555
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: case that you would just have to make sure that

556
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 1: you never are generating more power than the sun, Like,

557
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 1: are these just gonna be super weak lasers? Yeah, exactly,

558
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: you need to not be creating death rays from space,

559
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: so they would have to be pretty weak lasers, and

560
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 1: that limits the power there, right, So I think these

561
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: days microwaves are sort of on the ascendants when it

562
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: comes to space based solar power because you have this

563
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: limit on the intensity, which means that in order to

564
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: get enough power, you would still need a very large

565
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: receiving array, so you just need lots of lasers, and

566
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 1: so it might be that you would need like a

567
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: huge number of these lasers. The other problem with lasers

568
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: is that clouds aren't as transparent to lasers as they

569
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 1: are too microwaves. Microwaves can mostly pass through the atmosphere

570
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: in the clouds without losing energy, but not true for lasers,

571
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 1: Like clouds can block lasers much more efficiently than they

572
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: can block microwave beams. That sounds like a pretty big

573
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: problem problem exactly. So I wonder if there's a geopolitical

574
00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: problem here too, So you know, when you create this system,

575
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 1: you make sure that you're not blasting the Earth with

576
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: lasers that are super powerful. But like, for example, would

577
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: we feel comfortable with North Korea saying we have a

578
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 1: power problem and we want to use space based solar power,

579
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: you know, to generate power. So is this the kind

580
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 1: of thing where you might be able to say the

581
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 1: international community is okay with, for example, the United States

582
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: having this power because we think they'll follow our rules,

583
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: but we won't let North Korea anyway there. Do you

584
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: think there's geopolitical issues that might come to play here? Oh,

585
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: I'm sure there are, and I'm not up to speed

586
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: on like what the treaties are about how we use

587
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: space and what the rules are up there who's allowed

588
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: to launch these things? I think it's essentially there are

589
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: no rules, right. We certainly haven't been able to like

590
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: limit North Korea from launching satellites or missiles or anything

591
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: like that. So as we move into an era where

592
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: space is a international resource and one where they're competing interests,

593
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: will definitely have to figure all this stuff out. Maybe

594
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: a model for this is, you know, how we handle

595
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: international sea waters or Arctica or stuff like that. Yeah.

596
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: I've been talking to some space lawyers and it seems like,

597
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: if nothing else, it's a very interesting time to be

598
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: a space layer. With our space lawyers Are they lawyers

599
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: in space or are they lawyers about space? Or what's

600
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: the deal with a space lawyer. There's a job that

601
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: will always seem fake to me. It will always seem

602
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: like something that belongs in a sci fi novel. But no,

603
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: those are lawyers working on questions related to space, and

604
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: it's a super active field, and I think they've got

605
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: tons of work to do right now as space gets cheaper,

606
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: and so what do they think is going to happen to,

607
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: like how we handle these competing claims and interests in space.

608
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: It depends on what topic you're referring to in particular.

609
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of debate right now on topics

610
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 1: like our countries allowed to go to the Moon and

611
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: extract their resources and use them, and the Outer Space

612
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: Treaty has some sort of vague language about how you're

613
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: not supposed to be able to like take stuff, and

614
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be for everyone. Everyone is supposed to benefit.

615
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: But the US is sort of interpreting right now that

616
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: we can go up there and if we extra resources,

617
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: our companies can then sell them, and that's not the

618
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: same as claiming sovereignty. So the big thing the Outer

619
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: Space treaty says is that you can't claim sovereignty of

620
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: any part of space, and so they would be saying,

621
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: but we're not claiming sovereignty. We're just extracting resources and

622
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: selling those resources. We're not saying we own the land

623
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: where we did the extractions. So space lawyers are sort

624
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: of trying to figure out what to do about those

625
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: claims and how sound those claims are. And I don't

626
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: know how that would relate to things like are you

627
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: allowed to put space based solar power up when it

628
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: has the potential to be used as a weapon, So

629
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: you're not allowed to put you know, for example, weapons

630
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: of mass destruction up in space. But there's this problem

631
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: with dual use where there's things that you can say like, well, no,

632
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: I'm just doing this for power. I'm trying to, you know,

633
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: make sure my people stay warm, but it can also

634
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: be used as a weapon, and so it becomes hard

635
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: to categorize. And so you know, space lawyers are working

636
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: on questions like that. It definitely sounds very space lawyery,

637
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: like we're not claiming we own it, We're just taking

638
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: stuff out of it and selling it for money. You know,

639
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: I'm not claiming sovereignty over your house, but I'm taking

640
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: your flat screen TV and selling it on eBay and

641
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: keeping the cash. It gets very complicated, it sounds like

642
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: it does. And I think that's kind of the lesson

643
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 1: here is like everything in space is complicated, not just

644
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: from a legal point of view, but from a logistical

645
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: point of view. You know, one big problem I have

646
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: with space based solar power is that it's really inaccessible. Like,

647
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: if you build a solar power array on your roof,

648
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: it's hard enough to get up there to pick something,

649
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: or you gotta get a ladder and maybe break your

650
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: neck getting up there. But like if we're talking about

651
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: building something and putting it in space, right, like you

652
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: got to repair that thing. It's a huge problem. Remember

653
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 1: when they built the Hubble and it had an issue

654
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: and you know, one of the lenses was fuzzy. They

655
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: had to like send astronauts up there in the Space

656
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: Shuttle to go and repair that thing. And like, if

657
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: you've waited a long time to get your cable provider

658
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: to come by and fix something, imagine waiting on massive

659
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: lawn schedule, right, and we don't you know, the Space

660
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: Shuttle was a more versatile vehicle than the things that

661
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: we have now that bring us to the International Space

662
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: Station and DOC and then come back down again, and

663
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: so well, I don't know what it would actually take

664
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: if you wanted to have a human go to repair

665
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 1: your space based solar panel. I don't know that we

666
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: have good technology available currently for that sort of delicate,

667
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: like going to a very particular spot in space kind

668
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: of job. And so we'll talk in the next segment

669
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: about the idea of how to do these kinds of

670
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: repairs and what might entail and what's going on with

671
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: the economics when we talk to an expert who was

672
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: really excited about the prospects of it. But before we

673
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: talk about that, I want to talk a little bit

674
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: more about something that you mentioned earlier, which is sort

675
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 1: of the hostile environment. Right If you have solar panels

676
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: in your backyard, obviously you know it's gonna be rain

677
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: and snow and hail, all these things you have to

678
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: deal with. But they have the benefit of the protection

679
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: of the Earth's atmosphere. But if you're out there in space,

680
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: right then you're susceptible to rocks and debris and radiation

681
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,959
Speaker 1: and all sorts of stuff. It's a very hostile environment.

682
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: It's not a nice place to be for humans or

683
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: four solar panels. Yeah, I know, the radiation is super

684
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: intense and it definitely breaks things down. And then in

685
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: addition to the radiation, the dramatic temperature changes are problems.

686
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: So on the International Space Station you can hear the

687
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: station creaking as it goes from areas where it's in

688
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: the sun to areas where it's in the dark. And

689
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 1: if you've got things that are in the shadow of

690
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: the Earth, every once in a while they're expanding and

691
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: contracting as they get superheated by the sun, and then

692
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: they get super cold in the vacuum of space when

693
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: there's no sunlight, they contract again, and that's not good

694
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: for materials over long periods of time. So between the

695
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: intense radiation and the dramatic temperature changes, that's a lot

696
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: to ask your materials to handle. Yeah, that's like station

697
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: quakes right Like, it literally is like shaking and creaking

698
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: as it expands and contracts. That's amazing. And then in

699
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: addition to those problems, you have micro meteorites out there

700
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: which are traveling incredibly fast and could easily be poking

701
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: holes into your solar panels and their space debris. Space

702
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 1: debris is a problem that becomes harder every single year,

703
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: and it becomes harder the more silly humans do silly

704
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: human things. And so I think it was two thousand

705
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 1: seven China wanted to prove that they could shoot a

706
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: satellite in space, just as a way of being like,

707
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: look at how precise we are in our ability to

708
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: shoot at things in space. US has done that, Rush

709
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: has done that, India has done that. It's not just China,

710
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: but anyway, they picked a satellite that was still high

711
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 1: enough in orbit that it generated thousands I think of

712
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: pieces of debris. I wish I could remember the number

713
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: that are still floating around in space. And over time,

714
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 1: you know, we leave satellites and we don't decay them

715
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 1: and have them go down into the atmosphere. There's just

716
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: more and more stuff up there that could run into

717
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: your space based solar panels. And so this is a

718
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: problem that becomes harder over time. And if you have

719
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 1: a giant array, you've got essentially a giant target to

720
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: get hit by space debris. And for important things satellites,

721
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 1: the International Space Station, they have the ability to move

722
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: out of the way, but that requires you know, some

723
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: fuel to be able to move when you know that

724
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: something is coming your way. So these solar panels might

725
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: also need to be mobile to stay out of the way.

726
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: And one way or another, they're probably still getting hit

727
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: with stuff because we can't track the super tiny stuff

728
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: with our sensors. No, you're absolutely right, and they might

729
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: not just be a target of as to brethe that

730
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: might be a source of space debris. Right. If they

731
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: break and stuff falls off of them, and you're talking

732
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: about like replacing components, they're going to be contributing to

733
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 1: space debris. And this problem becomes as a crescendo. Right,

734
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: the more space debris you have, the more junk you

735
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: create as it collides into other stuff, and then you

736
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: get this cascading effect where basically all of spaces just

737
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: filled with junk and becomes unusable. I think that's called

738
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: the Kessler syndrome. Exactly. It's just sort of like your office,

739
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: you know, you can't get any work done when your

740
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: desk is just like so covered in things you need

741
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 1: to do that you're like frozen. You're like can't use

742
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: it anymore. Yeah, and that would be horrible for us

743
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 1: in so many different ways because of all the ways

744
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: our lives rely on satellites at this point. So, in

745
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: the proposals that you've looked at for space based solar power,

746
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 1: do they propose like regular repair missions or do they

747
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 1: just plan on these not being up there for so long?

748
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: What do you do about this problem? Yeah, so I

749
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: asked an expert about this, and he basically just accepts

750
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: that you're going to have some losses and that you're

751
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: gonna go up there every year and spend a certain

752
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: amount of money repairing it. And he tries to factor

753
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: that into his accounting, like there's a lot of factors

754
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 1: to keep track of. There are a lot of factors

755
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 1: to keep track of, and those factories are probably hard

756
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: to estimate now. And so you know, there's a lot

757
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: of lively debate about whether these estimates for the cost

758
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: of maintenance of space based solar power are reasonable or

759
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: wildly optimistic. And that sounds like an exciting topic for

760
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: after our break. So you mentioned that Solkowski, who was

761
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: a Russian guy, was excited about space based solar power

762
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 1: and the idea has sort of gotten people excited in

763
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: the US. Are those the only countries that are excited

764
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: about this or is this idea taking off in other places?

765
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: It's taking off all around the world. There's a project

766
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: in China called Omega that is aiming to be like

767
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,879
Speaker 1: operational by twenty fifty, which sounds crazy futuristic, but then

768
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 1: also sounds crazy futuristic, so it's not should have far away.

769
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: And they want to be able to supply two gigawatts

770
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: of power into the Earth's grid, which is not a

771
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: small amount, right to make that much solar power on Earth,

772
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 1: you did like six million solar panels. So they have

773
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 1: this project to like actually implement this and I sort

774
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 1: of like be on the cutting edge of space based

775
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: solar power. And is this a government funded project or

776
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: is this just sort of an idea at the moment. No,

777
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: it's a government funded project, and like you know, all

778
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 1: the ideas in China, all the research in China is

779
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: funded by the government. And it's a funny system the

780
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: way they organize everything over there, but it's definitely government

781
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: funded and it's a project. And you know, the cool

782
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: thing about projects in China is that they can make

783
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 1: plans for twenty forty years and keep them because they

784
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: don't have a change in government every two four or

785
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 1: six years where they're changing direction, like throwing up their

786
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: political opponents plans and tearing them up. So one advantage

787
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,760
Speaker 1: of an autocracy is that you can make long read

788
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 1: science plans and you can stick to them. So that's

789
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: something cool that China can do silver lining. Exactly. They've

790
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 1: been doing good job of keeping up with their plans

791
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: for like getting humans in space and putting up their

792
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 1: space stations. They have actually been fairly consistent in their timelines.

793
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure a U S official at NASA would be

794
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: envious of China's ability to stick to their schedule. Yeah, exactly,

795
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: the trains run on time. But then there are also

796
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: plans involving some folks here in the in the United

797
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: States to build a system that works in Australia. They

798
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 1: see Australia as a potential good test case. And this

799
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: is a project pioneered by John Minkin, who has spent

800
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: a long time working at NASA and at JPL, and

801
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: he's very excited about the idea of space based solar power.

802
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 1: And I had a conversation with him about the prospects

803
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: and how he sees this working and the challenges involved

804
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: in building this kind of system. Yeah. So one of

805
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: the things I think is interesting about his proposal is

806
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 1: that earlier in the show, we were talking about maybe

807
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,280
Speaker 1: having like, you know, a giant panel or giant mirror

808
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: that focuses things onto a big panel, and this proposal

809
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: is for lots of tiny pieces, which I think does

810
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: a better job of dealing with the fact that you're

811
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 1: gonna get damage to them from radiation and micro meteorites.

812
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 1: It makes it easier to switch them out. What do

813
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 1: you think about the proposal of using lots of smaller pieces.

814
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 1: I think it makes a lot of sense. I think

815
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: he's trying to move away from the concept of like,

816
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: let's spend a hundred billion dollars building one Rolls Royce,

817
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: but instead, let's build up the industry to manufacture these

818
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 1: things and get the economics of scale. And if we

819
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: can produce lots and lots of these things, we can

820
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: get these factories pumping them out, then we can build

821
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 1: a large system out of small, modular components. So I'm

822
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: impressed that he's actually thinking about, you know, how we

823
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: can get industry connected and drive the prices down to

824
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: make this thing economically feasible. So I think that sounds

825
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: a lot more promising than you know, building one big,

826
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: expensive one which is going to cost a lot of

827
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: money and then need a lot of sort of boutique repairs.

828
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,720
Speaker 1: I was listening to John Mancin's interviewed on The Space

829
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 1: Show the other night, and he was saying that he

830
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: envisions at some time in the for future will have

831
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 1: these lots of tiny panels and rather than when one

832
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 1: gets broken, just kind of throwing it out and being

833
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: done with it. You know, it's made of materials that

834
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 1: if you had a space settlement you might like to

835
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: use again, and so you would go out there and

836
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: you'd sort of just like legos, take out one piece

837
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: and put in another piece. But then you'd take the

838
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: piece you're not using anymore and then break it down

839
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: and use it for something else in your space settlement.

840
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 1: And you know, that is a super far off idea,

841
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,720
Speaker 1: but I do sort of like the idea of starting

842
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: to think about how we can recycle the stuff that

843
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: we're using in space. I thought that was fun. I

844
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: always get excited when I hear him interviewed because he's

845
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: so enthusiastic, and he makes me enthusiastic. Yeah, he's very

846
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 1: enthusiastic and I like the idea of space recycling, but

847
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,760
Speaker 1: you know, we haven't even figured out like aluminium recycling

848
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: down here on Earth, so like, where can I recycle

849
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: my aluminium can up in space? It seems like a

850
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: much harder problem. But you know, I do like the

851
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: forward looking nature, the imagining that this is gonna be

852
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: like a whole space based ecosystem in which this concept

853
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 1: could fit and it can support it and provide it.

854
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: But as with all these things, it's a bit of

855
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: a chicken and egg problem, right. You know, you could

856
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 1: support these things and if you had all these other elements,

857
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: but then you need, you know, space power to get

858
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 1: those ments. And so somebody's got to be out there

859
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: advocating for this thing, making it happen, pushing it forward

860
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: so that it does build up that momentum. Anyway, I

861
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: had a fun conversation with John and I asked him

862
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 1: what he thought was the most promising architecture, how he

863
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: would build this if he was going to build this

864
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 1: thing today. Here's what John had to say. The architectural

865
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: approach that I think is most promising is one that

866
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 1: involves a very large number of identical modular system elements,

867
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 1: probably about ten or twelve different families of these system elements.

868
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: And so the Solar Power satellite, rather than looking like

869
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: a huge conventional spacecraft or like the International Space Station

870
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 1: or something, instead would very much resemble almost a living organism.

871
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: So like a coral reef comprises trillions of individual coral

872
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: and those of course extraordinarily tiny, but then there are

873
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: all so various fish and an enemies and so on,

874
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 1: and all of these species cooperate to make what is

875
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 1: essentially a miniature biosphere out in the midst of the ocean. Yeah.

876
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: So you can hear that, Kelly, how he's describing his

877
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: like swarm of little mini pieces that build up a

878
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 1: large space farm. I think that's probably a better design

879
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: than the big space solar panel that we talked about

880
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 1: earlier in the show. Yeah, I think that makes a

881
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: lot more sense. I don't really want somebody building like

882
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: a huge mirror to focus energy and that could be

883
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 1: potentially used as a weapon. Yeah, no, I agree, We're

884
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: on the same page. So did you ask John, like

885
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 1: how long you think it would take for this technology

886
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: to mature? So, I know we know a little bit

887
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 1: about solar panels on the International Space Station, but there's

888
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: probably still a lot of things that we would need

889
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: to figure out to make this all work. Yeah, I did.

890
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: And so I asked him if he thought this is

891
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 1: like something in the far future that he's laying the

892
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 1: groundwork for, or something he was going to be like

893
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: alive to actually see in operation. Here's what he had

894
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: to say. The time to develop a modular solar power

895
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 1: satellite do the first demonstration is like thirty six months.

896
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: The time to develop the first operating pilot plant it's

897
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: like five years. The time to have the first full

898
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: scale solar power satellite delivering thousands of megawatts to the

899
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 1: ground is like eight or ten years. And it's because

900
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 1: the pieces are the size of a three or six

901
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: you cubes at There's just a lot of them, and

902
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 1: it's not this colossus. One single thing is just legos.

903
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 1: You're just making the moral equivalent of tinker toy pieces

904
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: or lego pieces, and you're plugging them together in space.

905
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 1: So what do you think about that, Kelly? You think

906
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 1: this thing is actually gonna be up there in space

907
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 1: beaming power to Australia in ten years? Well, I have

908
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 1: a couple. It was the one I don't feel like

909
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: there's enough public push for this technology yet that it's

910
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 1: going to get enough momentum to happen in years. It

911
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: would be cool if I was wrong. I also think

912
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 1: the geopolitical stuff might need to be dealt with a

913
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: little bit more carefully and that could flow this technology

914
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 1: down to So I guess I'm not super optimistic about

915
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:13,919
Speaker 1: the ten year time point, but it would be great

916
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 1: if I was wrong. What do you think. I think

917
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 1: you've got to be aspirational and nobody really believes these projections.

918
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at like every single space

919
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 1: project we've ever launched, it's always had, like, you know,

920
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 1: a target date well in the past, you know, like

921
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 1: the James Web Space Telescope, or like look at the

922
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 1: development of the Space Shuttle. All of these things are

923
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: always like ten thirty years behind. But in order to

924
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 1: make them happen, you have to sort of push them right.

925
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: You have to say we're aiming for ten years from now,

926
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 1: and then no, in the back of your mind it's

927
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 1: going to slip a decade or two. If you say,

928
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 1: you know, this is going to happen in fifty years,

929
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:48,240
Speaker 1: then it's just sort of hard to get it organized.

930
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 1: It seems like the next generation two problems. Yes, fair enough.

931
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 1: So I asked John about the economics of it also

932
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 1: because I was curious, like, how do you think this

933
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: is going to happen? Who's going to pay for this?

934
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: How do you cut down the cost of getting They're

935
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 1: like having to launch out there in this space to

936
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: actually build these things. And so you can hear John's

937
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 1: enthusiasm in his response, everybody's got a rocket company, but

938
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 1: almost nobody is building new kinds of satellites because it's

939
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 1: just not what they're investing it. We actually think that

940
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 1: this will be like a snowball. Once this gets going,

941
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 1: We think lots of people will want to have a play,

942
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 1: as it's called in space solar power. But we need

943
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: that catalyst. We need a catalyst to do the initial prototyping,

944
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: build these modules, put them together, validate that they work

945
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 1: the way that they have to work. There's no magic

946
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: in the engineering, but people are gonna want to see

947
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 1: it once that happens. We see these power plants as

948
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 1: being developed and deployed through a mixture of more or

949
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 1: less conventional private sector investment, where private entities invest maybe

950
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: in a new power plant and the rest of your debt.

951
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 1: The Golden gate Bridge was paid for by It was

952
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: secured by the then newly formed Bank of America. Debt

953
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: helped pay for the big Big in Boston. For the

954
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 1: full scale systems, it'll be a mix of debt and

955
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: more conventional large scale investors who want to own a

956
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: share of selling two gigawatts per twenty four hours per

957
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 1: three sixty five days a year forever. So you can

958
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: hear his enthusiasm there, Kelly, He's like hoping that these

959
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: costs are really going to come down, that people are

960
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: going to be developing cheaper launches, and that it's gonna

961
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 1: be so like the next Gold Rush. And I hope

962
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 1: he's right. I worry that the cost of solar panels

963
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,240
Speaker 1: going down is going to make this stuff even less likely,

964
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 1: because it will be easier and easier for more of

965
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 1: us to put solar panels on our house. And I

966
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 1: know that doesn't solve the problem about nighttime or clouds.

967
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: But as battery technology gets better too, I wonder if

968
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 1: we'll be less and less inclined to invest tons of

969
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,800
Speaker 1: money in putting this stuff in space. But again, it

970
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 1: would be super cool if I was wrong, it would

971
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: be super cool. And I think it's sort of awesome

972
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 1: to have competing strategies here, right, Like we're pushing on

973
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: space based solar power, but at the same time, you know,

974
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: we are, as you say, trying to make batteries and

975
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,439
Speaker 1: transmission more effective down here on Earth. So who knows

976
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 1: which technology is gonna win, but definitely humanity is gonna win. Right.

977
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 1: If either of these things come out being cheaper and

978
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: more robust and more reliable, then we're fine, right. I

979
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 1: think it would be sort of cooler to have based

980
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: based technology, but I'm a little skeptical of it. I

981
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: read an analysis of John's proposal from another JPO guy,

982
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 1: Casey Hammer, and he was, to say politely, completely skeptical.

983
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: He was not believing that this thing is ever going

984
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: to be a thing. And his number one problem is

985
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 1: that he feels like John consistently makes optimistic estimates of

986
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: construction and launch costs by at least an order of

987
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 1: magnitude beyond current best industry standards. And I think that's

988
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 1: really the key. And in a conversation I had with John,

989
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: he agreed that the launch costs are probably the most

990
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: expensive part of their system. You've got to go up

991
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 1: there every year in order to repair this stuff, or

992
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 1: even just to like send new robots up there to

993
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 1: repair it. John estimates that would be three percent of

994
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 1: the cost of the system. So if you have a

995
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: ten billion dollar cost or your Australian system, that you're

996
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: gonna be paying essentially another ten billion dollars over the

997
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: next ten years to maintain this thing. And according to John,

998
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: the economics workout and you're still making money and you're

999
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 1: gonna pay off your investors, and so you can attract

1000
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 1: interest from investors because it's gonna be positive cash flow

1001
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 1: in the future. But I think that relies in really

1002
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 1: great detail on those launch costs coming down so quickly,

1003
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 1: and they are coming down pretty quickly. And I'd be

1004
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: interested to hear how that three percent in operation cost

1005
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: compares to operation costs for the upkeep of like a

1006
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: coal power power plant or something. Presumably it's much lower,

1007
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 1: but boy, I need to learn more about power. Yeah,

1008
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: it's definitely much lower. I mean, the price of coal

1009
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: is ridiculously low. You know, you can buy like a

1010
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 1: ton of coal for tens of dollars. You can build

1011
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 1: a coal fired power plant very very cheaply. But then

1012
00:48:58,080 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: you know, then you've got to keep paying for the

1013
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: fuel all year. And the nice thing about the fuel

1014
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 1: for your solar power plant is it's free. It just

1015
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 1: comes from the sun. But of course then you've got

1016
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: to get into space to repair these things. So I

1017
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 1: think what we're looking at here is sort of a

1018
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 1: race between like bringing down the cost of the launches

1019
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: to get up there and to maintain these things, and

1020
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: improving solar panels here on Earth. So, Kelly, in the end,

1021
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 1: are you more or less skeptical about the prospects for

1022
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: space based solar power? Well, I think the more that

1023
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 1: we talked about the physics, the more concerned I got

1024
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: about the equation for balancing it all out. I remain

1025
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: hopeful that I'm wrong, and I've actually had so in

1026
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: soon ish we wrote a little section about how we

1027
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 1: thought space based solar power was probably not going to

1028
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 1: pan out, and so many nice people have written me

1029
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: to be like, no, no, no, you have to be wrong.

1030
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: I love this community like it's a bunch of nice

1031
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 1: people who are trying to make the world a better place.

1032
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: And I'm still not totally sure about the equations, but

1033
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: I do hope that I'm wrong. What do you think

1034
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: I'm also skeptical, but I've been skeptical before, and you know,

1035
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 1: there's no limit to human ingenuity, and what it takes

1036
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: to it over those problems is believing that it's possible

1037
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 1: and saying, let's work hard on them. Let's figure out

1038
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: which part of this problem is the hardest, and let's

1039
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: get cracking on it. And I think that's the first step.

1040
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 1: So I'm skeptical little ever happen, but I'm hopeful that

1041
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 1: maybe it might. Well. This community has a lot of

1042
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: hard working believers, so if anyone can make it happen,

1043
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 1: I think these people can make it happen. So I

1044
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: guess we'll see. But I'm not investing in any of

1045
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 1: these projects personally, so that maybe that tells you a

1046
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: more personal level whether I believe it's actually gonna work. Yeah,

1047
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 1: same here. All right, Well, thanks for listening to us

1048
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 1: talk about space based solar power. You know, I think

1049
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 1: the humanity does have a future out there in space,

1050
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: but there's definitely a lot of horror problems to solve

1051
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 1: along the way. Amen, and thanks again to Kelly for

1052
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 1: joining us. Thanks again for the invitation. I had a

1053
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:49,240
Speaker 1: blast as always. All Right, everybody out there, so stay curious,

1054
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: keep asking questions, and if you'd like us to talk

1055
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: about some other crazy futuristic technology and how the physics

1056
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:57,800
Speaker 1: of it might work and whether they're gonna be building

1057
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: death rays to shoot into your bedroom, ease right to

1058
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 1: us two questions at Daniel and Jorge dot com. Tune

1059
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: in next time. Bye, thanks for listening, and remember that

1060
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe is a production of

1061
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,879
Speaker 1: I Heart Radio or more podcast from my heart Radio.

1062
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: Visit the I Heart Radio Apple Apple Podcasts, or wherever

1063
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 1: you listen to your favorite shows. H