1 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. In two thousand and fifteen, 2 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: the Obama White House negotiated a deal with the Iranians 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPLA. 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: It was a detailed, one hundred and fifty nine page 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: agreement reached by Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, 6 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 1: and the United States. The nuclear deal was endorsed by 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: the UN Security Council Resolution twenty two thirty one and 8 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: adopted on July twentieth, two fifteen. Iran's compliance with the 9 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: JCPLA was verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The 10 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: deal basically stopped Iran from building their own nuclear bombs. Now, 11 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: the by deministrations trying to renegotiate the two thousand and 12 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: fifteen deal, but there's only one problem. They were not 13 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: invited to the negotiating table. The Iranians did not want 14 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: them there, and the Biden administration agreed incredibly and instead 15 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: relied on intermediaries. Now the deal is almost done and 16 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: it is apparent that the Russians and the Chinese may 17 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: benefit from the deal, which begs the question why is 18 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: the United States a part of it? Here to provide 19 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: more context on the new Iran nuclear deal negotiations. I'm 20 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: really pleased to welcome my guests, Eylan Burman, Senior Vice 21 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: president at the American Foreign Policy Council and one of 22 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 1: the most knowledgeable and insightful people that I know. Ellen, 23 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: thank you for joining me. Oh, sir, thanks so much 24 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: for having me. So this is a really remarkable moment. 25 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: I can't quite imagine something more screwed up than this, 26 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: where the Presidentited States is describing the leader of Russia 27 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: as a war criminal while the Russians are the chief 28 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: negotiators with Iran, the strikesman is being kind of peculiar. 29 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: I think that's a little bit of an understatement, just 30 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: for the edification of the listeners, so they understand the 31 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: sanctions levied against Russia currently, everything from the d swift ing, 32 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 1: the disconnection of Russia from the International Electronic Payment System, 33 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: two sanctions against Russia's central bank. These are tremendously impactful sanctions, 34 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: and the Russian economy has been very adversely affected by it. 35 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: But at the same time, the Russians have a lifeline 36 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: of sorts, and it's a lifeline that is built around 37 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 1: their participation. In fact, their leadership in the current negotiations 38 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: that are taking place in Vienna over the revival of 39 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: the twenty fifteen nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, because 40 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: Russia has been instrumental in bringing the Iranians to the table. 41 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: You pointed out, the United States is not at the table. 42 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: We're sort of in the next room listening intently to 43 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: the deliberations. But the Russians from the start have been 44 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: orchestrating these negotiations. The Russians have also built in economic 45 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: safeguards for themselves, which include sanctions related carve outs for 46 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: things like civilian nuclear work. And it's very clear that 47 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: even as the Bid administration talks about isolating Russia on 48 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: the world stage, it is increasingly extensively reliant on Russia 49 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: to bring home some sort of nuclear deal with Iran. 50 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: And if this sounds peculiar, as you said, it's because 51 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:42,119 Speaker 1: it is so, as I understand it. When we had 52 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: the original agreement, you had China, France, Germany, Russia, the 53 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: United Kingdom, and the United States. Now the Russians or 54 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: the Chinese are negotiating with Iran. Are France, Unity Kingdom 55 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: in Germany also in the room. So my understanding is 56 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: that they are, and they're certainly talking to the Iranians 57 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: behind the scenes, because one of the crucial dynamics that's 58 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: taking place and has taken place for a long time, 59 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: is that the Trump Administration's maximum pressure policy, the Iran 60 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: sanctions and economic pressure policy that the Trump administration levied 61 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: against the Islamic Republic when it took office in lieu 62 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: of participation in the JCPOA was not approved of by 63 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: those countries, and those countries have been seeking a return 64 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: to some sort of negotiating framework with Iran, and they've 65 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: been quietly talking to the Iranians for a long time 66 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: about resuming business as usual once maximum pressure goes away. 67 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: And as a result, they are deeply invested in, deeply 68 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: involved in the current negotiations because they understand that if 69 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: this goes well, if there is some sort of new 70 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: nuclear deal with Iran and sanctions do come off, they 71 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: stand to benefit. What I'm fascinating by is that this 72 00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: agreement was reached in twenty fifteen became famous in part 73 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,119 Speaker 1: because it involved US transferring a good bit of money 74 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: to the Iranian dictatorship, including apparently a billion dollars in cash, 75 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: a billion seven I believe a billion, seven billion, seven 76 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: but which was put on an airplane and apparently had 77 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: to be either Swiss francs or euros because the Iranians 78 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 1: would not accept dollars, which does lead the whole question 79 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: of why are you negotiating with the country which won't 80 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: even agree to be in the same room with you. 81 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: But what surprised me when we went back and got 82 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: ready to talk with you is that while the deal 83 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 1: was agreed to on July fourteenth, twenty fifteen, as early 84 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: as October twenty first of the very same year, just 85 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: a few months later, the United States raised Irand's ballistic 86 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: missile test as a possible violation of the agreement. Then, 87 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: on November twenty first, i Rand tested another medium range 88 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 1: ballistic missile and violation agreement. On December twenty eighth the 89 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: same year, twenty fifteen, i Ran announced that ship eight 90 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 1: five tons of low and enriched uranium out of the 91 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: country to Russia and received one hundred and forty tons 92 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: of uranium yellowcake, which is a basic material for enrichment. 93 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: Then on March ninth, twenty sixteen, Iran test launched two 94 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: different variations of the medium range ballistic missile and finally, 95 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 1: on January twenty eighth, twenty seventeen, they fired a medium 96 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: range ballistic missile in defiance of the UN Security Council resolution. Already, 97 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: even under the Obama administration, they were certainly pushing the 98 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: limits of the agreement, and that sort of the backdrop 99 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: which led on May eighth, twenty eighteen, President Trump to 100 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 1: announced that he was withdrawing from the agreement and that 101 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: they had instituted sanctions on Iran, and that the sanctions 102 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: were much stricter than they had been before. Iran said 103 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: in response it would remain in the deal, which tightly 104 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: restricted its nuclear ambitions for a decade or more. Why, 105 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: in your judgment, did Biden decided to resurrect the deal? So, 106 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: I think there are a number of reasons. The first 107 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: is I think probably the most obvious, although it doesn't 108 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: get talked about a lot. It's because personnelis policy, and 109 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: in the personage of the Secretary of State, of the 110 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: Deputy Secretary of State Anthony B. Lincoln, Wendy Sherman, in 111 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: the personality of the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the 112 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: Special Envoy for Iran Affairs, Robert Malley, these are people 113 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: who were principles in the negotiation of the first agreement, 114 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: the twenty fifteen deal, under the Obama administration, and so 115 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: the idea that the US under the Biden administration would 116 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: go back into the deal was a bit of a 117 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: foregone conclusion once staffing for the administration began to be known. 118 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: Because these individuals are principal stakeholders in the original agreement, 119 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: they're not likely now to do one hundred eighty degree 120 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: about face and say, well, that agreement was foolish, that 121 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: agreement wasn't worth concluding in the first place. The problem 122 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: with this because it's very clear that the Biden administration 123 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: is heavily invested in reviving the nuclear deal. And even 124 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: here it's worth pointing out that there were early hopes 125 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: by the Biden administration that reinvigorating the twenty fifteen deal 126 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: would be the prelude to what Secretary Lincoln talked about 127 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: as a longer and stronger agreement, essentially a follow on 128 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: agreement that would lengthen the timeline on the nuclear restrictions, 129 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: that would constrain Iron in more ways. But that hasn't happened. 130 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: What we actually have is an agreement that by all 131 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: objective metrics is weaker than what we saw in twenty 132 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: fifteen for a very simple reason, because the region has 133 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: moved on. The regional dynamics are fundamentally different today in 134 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two than they were in twenty fifteen. You 135 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: see tremendous amounts of dynamism on the part of Israel 136 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: and the Gulf nations. The so called Abraham Accords trend 137 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: is dynamic progressing. It's bringing these countries closer together, and 138 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: it's bringing them closer together in opposition to a common threat, 139 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: because Iran poses a threat to all of them, and 140 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: so by seeking in a very dogged fashion to revive 141 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: this agreement even though the regional circumstance has changed, the 142 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: Biden imistration risks putting itself on the opposite side of 143 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 1: these emerging trends in the region, to essentially be tone 144 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: deaf to what regional states and erstwhile allies of the 145 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: United States are thinking in the region, and to position 146 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: itself with a country that's part of the problem rather 147 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: than part of the solution. Do you think that that 148 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: sense of a failed American policy that threatens the survival 149 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: is a significant part of why neither Saudi Arabia nor 150 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 1: the United Arab Emirates would accept a phone call from 151 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: President Biden. Oh. Absolutely, I think it's very clear. And 152 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: I recently returned from the region, so I had some 153 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 1: of these conversations with principles in places like Bahrain and 154 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: the United Arab Emirates. It's very clear from those conversations, 155 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: from my interactions that the region in many ways is 156 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: moving past America. That there's been this sort of conclusion 157 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: that the United States, at least under the current administration, 158 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: is wedded to this unhelpful policy that will empower Iran 159 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: anew and therefore the region has to make other plans. 160 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: And that's why you see a bit of a diplomatic 161 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: cold shoulder from Rha, a bit of a diplomatic cold 162 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: shoulder from Abu Dhabi, but also developments like this growing 163 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: proximity and growing warmth between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 164 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: and the government of the People's Republic of China, for example. 165 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: This is all the region attempting to transition past America 166 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: because it sees the United States as essentially pursuing a 167 00:10:45,800 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: policy that doesn't reflect current regional realities. Iran, I think, 168 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: is still listed by the State Department as the largest 169 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Absolutely right, Why 170 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: would the Democrats be intent on making a country which 171 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: is still openly supporting terrorism a central figure in the 172 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: Middle East. What is it that drives this underlying passion 173 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: now for two administrations, Well, I think that's really the 174 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 1: central question, and I know it's something that I've puzzled 175 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 1: over a tremendous amount. My sense was, at least in 176 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: the initial going under the Obama administration, there was a 177 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: sense that the Obama administration didn't know what to do 178 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: with the Middle East. The Middle East was a problematic region. 179 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 1: The Arab Spring was at its height, and that's why 180 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: President Obama, beginning in late twenty ten early twenty eleven, 181 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 1: talked about a pivot to Asia, essentially to turn away 182 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: from the Middle East and to turn towards another region 183 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: that holds more political promise, more ecn amic problems. But 184 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 1: you can't leave a political vacuum. And so this priority, 185 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: this pivot to Asia, very naturally led the Biden administration 186 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: to try to find a deputy a country that could 187 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: carry America's water in the absence of a strong robust 188 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: American presence. How they decided that Iran was that deputy 189 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: is beyond me, to be honest, But because of precisely 190 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: what you mentioned, because of Iran's long consistent track record 191 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: of support for terrorism and regional instability. But that was 192 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: precisely the formula that the Obama administration constructed, and kendidly 193 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: it's the formula that the Biden administration is pursuing as well. 194 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: So you now have the Biden administrations, I understand it 195 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 1: seriously considering removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the 196 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: State Department's Foreign Terrorist ORGANIZATIONALIST. That's the group whose leader 197 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: Solomony we killed because he was such a consistent organizer 198 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: of terror. Why would you take them off the list 199 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: of terrorist organization? You know? President Trump in April twenty 200 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 1: nineteen designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, saying, quote, 201 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: it participates in finances and promotes terrorism as a tool 202 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: of state craft. What's the advantage to the US of 203 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: pretending they're not terrorists? Well, the only political advantage is 204 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: that it brings the bid administration closer to some sort 205 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: of agreement with Iran. The d listing of the IRGC, 206 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: as they're known by their acronym has been for a 207 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: long time a core demand of the Iranian side at 208 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: these proximity talks that are taking place in Vienna, and 209 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: there's a very good reason for this, not only for 210 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:45,239 Speaker 1: prestige purposes, but also because the IRGC is a major, 211 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: major economic actor in the Islamic Republic. For a long time, 212 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: for example, the IRGC's construction headquarters, which is known as Hatamalanbia, 213 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: was the principal subcontractor for post conflict reconstruction in Iraq, 214 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: and layers upon layers of US sanctions, including the listing 215 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: of them as a foreign terrorist organization under the US law, 216 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: has really put a crimp in their style, so to speak. 217 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 1: So I think it's incorrect to say that the delisting 218 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: doing this is simply a symbolic move to inject confidence 219 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: in the Iranian side. I think it actually has very 220 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: significant practical effects, legal effects, economic effects, But it also 221 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: sends for all of our allies in the region precisely 222 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: the wrong message, because as you pointed out, Iran is 223 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: the world's leading state sponsor of terror, it has been 224 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: for years, and the IRGC are the agent. They are 225 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: the branch of the regime that is irresponsible for this 226 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: sort of activity. So the signal that we send by 227 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: turning a blind eye to this is I think foolish 228 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: in the extreme. So, I know, you just came back 229 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: from the region and you've been speaking with Israeli experts 230 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: and scholars and defense analysts. I mean, what is the 231 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: Israeli view about this whole negotiation. Well, this was I 232 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: think one of the most fascinating sets of conversations that 233 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: I had when I was in the region, because in 234 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: Israel there is a profound sense of disbelief, almost betrayal 235 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: on the part of Israeli officials who simply can't understand 236 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: why the Biden administration is so doggedly pursuing this agreement. 237 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: And I think this is important to highlight. It's also 238 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: causing the Israeli national security and defense establishment to begin 239 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: contingency planning. We're not just talking about an independent military 240 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: option against Iran, which is something that has sort of 241 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: been floated in the press and been talked about in 242 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: Israel and in the United States for a long time. 243 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: They're also having a secondary debate, which is I think 244 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: enormously consequential because more and more scholars and public intellectuals 245 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: in Israel are now beginning to talk about the need 246 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: to reposition their nuclear posture. Israel for years has been 247 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: pursuing a policy of nuclear ambiguity in which it has 248 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: failed to confirm that it is a nuclear power, even 249 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: though it's commonly understood to be one. Increasingly, there are 250 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: scholars in Israel who are saying that Israel needs to 251 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: come out of the nuclear closet because only by doing that, 252 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: only by showing its cards, so to speak, can it 253 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: set up something resembling a stable balance of terror with 254 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: the Islamic Republic of Iran. Because America is not going 255 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: to stop Iran's nuclear program, and that nuclear program has 256 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: progressed so far that it's far too mature and far 257 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: too distributed and far too resilient to be eliminated outright 258 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: by a military strike. So Israel has to create some 259 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: sort of contingency plan, and that involves good old fashioned 260 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: de terms. So in that context, the Israelis would accept 261 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: that there was a mortal danger from Iran, but would 262 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: in effect be threatening to take out Tehran or the 263 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: other major cities if the Uranians acted against Israel. I mean, 264 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: is that a shorthand that's a shorthand that's the theory, 265 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: and parenthetically, I wouldn't say that that's necessarily a strategy 266 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: that I think is a good strategy from my perspective, 267 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: because it presumes rationality on the part of the Iranian leadership, 268 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: rationality under all circumstances. Because if we remember, the idea 269 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: of a balance of terror was floated during the Cold 270 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: War in terms of our nuclear strategy visa via the 271 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,199 Speaker 1: Soviet Union, because we presumed rationality on the part of 272 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: Soviet leadership, and there were many scholars, including people like 273 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: Richard Pipes, who wrote about the idea that the Soviets 274 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 1: actually think that they can fight and win a nuclear war. 275 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 1: And I think there's a danger that we have in 276 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: assuming that the Iranians will act in a very predictable, 277 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: very rational manner under all circumstances. I don't necessarily think 278 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: that this is a winning strategy, but it does show 279 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: you the length to which the Israelis are going to 280 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: because they understand that this is a problem that it's 281 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: vested for a long time, and it's a problem without 282 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: an easy solution, and so they're trying to think of 283 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: ways to square the circle. Of course, in both Iraq 284 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: and Syria. Their react was to preemptively take out the facilities. 285 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 1: Do they now think that that's not possible in Iran. 286 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 1: It's interesting because I think that there has been a 287 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: tendency on the part of multiple US administrations, Republicans and 288 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: Democrats alike, to negotiate with Iran while keeping this presumed 289 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: Israel card in their back pocket, the idea that Israel 290 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: is the only country in the world to have denukar 291 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: as two countries, Iraq in the nineteen eighties, Syria in 292 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: two thousand and seven, and as a result, if negotiations 293 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: don't go well, the Israelis will take care of our 294 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: Iran problem too. And for just as long the Israelis 295 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: have been desperately trying to convince Washington that they really 296 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: don't want to do this, and they don't want to 297 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: do this because Iran is not Iraq, Iran is not Syria. 298 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: It is a massively larger geographic space. It is a 299 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: nuclear program that is much more spread out, much more hardened, 300 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: much more mature than those other programs were. And that's 301 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: why Israeli officials, on the rare occasions they do talk 302 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,640 Speaker 1: about this, they never talk about denuclearization. They only talk 303 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: about delay. That's their concession to the idea that they 304 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: may not know where all the facilities are, they may 305 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: not know where all the nuclear skeletons are buried, and 306 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: as a result, they tend to talk about mowing the 307 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: graphs to use an Israeli euphemism, to set back the 308 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 1: Iranian nuclear program by a period of time rather than 309 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 1: eliminating it outright. And they've done a good bit of 310 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 1: that with a variety of amazing operations, one of which 311 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 1: have I understand it correctly, involved going in and taking 312 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: out an entire warehouse of records without the Iranians knowing it. 313 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: I mean, it's the sort of thing that really is 314 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: like a classic Spine novel. That's exactly right. The other 315 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: part of this, which is I think in some ways 316 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: even more bizarre than the negotiation with Iran, is the 317 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: whole process of relying on the Russians, and the Russians 318 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: in effect charging a pretty high premium for delivering. I mean, 319 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: here you have Biden saying that Putin is a butcher, 320 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: he is a murderer, he's a war criminal, he should 321 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: be tried for his war crimes. Meanwhile, it's the Russians 322 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: who are actually the primary negotiators in this deal, and 323 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: the Russians want to charge us some pretty substantial goodies 324 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: that would effect violate all of the tough sanctions that 325 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: Biden talks about and make a joke out of the sanctions. 326 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: How do you follow the bouncing ball? And understanding this 327 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 1: candidly with great difficulty, because it doesn't make any sense 328 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: on an objective level. The idea that the Russians will 329 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: still be stewards of America's interests and will still do 330 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: what we want them to do while we are on 331 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 1: a different front, sanctioning the economy, isolating their leaders, calling 332 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: their leaders war criminals. The idea that the Russians will 333 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: still carry our water reliably and bring home an agreement 334 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 1: with Iran is I think foolish in the extreme. And 335 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,679 Speaker 1: if that does happen, it actually tells you something. It 336 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,920 Speaker 1: tells you that whatever agreement transpires in Vienna, whatever agreement 337 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: the Russians can nudge the Iranians into accepting, it's one 338 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: that serves Moscow's interests. And these days Moscow's interests in 339 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: Washington's interests are significant, if not diametrically opposed, and as 340 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: a result, any deal that Moscow likes, I would take 341 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: a hard look at. I mean, in a sense, it 342 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: seems to me the Biden administration is saying that the 343 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: Iranian deal is more important than the attack on Ukraine. 344 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: That's certainly the message that a lot of Russians are 345 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: taking away from this. And as I understand it, part 346 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: of the deal will be for the Russian energy company 347 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: Rosatom to have a ten billion dollar contract with a 348 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 1: r and outside the sanctions. That's right, that's the civilian 349 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: nuclear carve out that I talked about. So you have 350 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,880 Speaker 1: strong talk of the White House, but in Vienna we're 351 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: in fact relying on the Russians to deliver no. That's right. 352 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: And the interesting thing to me is the extent to 353 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: which there doesn't seem to be a lot of realization 354 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: on the part of the White House that these two 355 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: policies cannot be siloed off, cannot be walled off from 356 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 1: one another. In fact, that what's happening in Vienna and 357 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: the concessions that we're giving to the Iranians, including the 358 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia, are diametrically opposed to the 359 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: types of pressure that the President says he wants to 360 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: apply on the Kremlin to forestall any future military adventurism 361 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,199 Speaker 1: on the part of Vladimir Putin. So the signals that 362 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: we're sending are decidedly mixed. And if the Russians are 363 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: confused in terms of watching our foreign policy, I think 364 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 1: they have good reason to be. I mean, do you 365 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: think the White House rit large that as a Secretary 366 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: of State, the national security advisor of the President, do 367 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: you think they have any notion of how they're undermining themselves. 368 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 1: I think that's a good question. I certainly can't speak 369 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: to their frame of mind. I can tell you that 370 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: from the outside myself and my colleagues and people who 371 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: watch this fairly closely. The question has come up again 372 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,360 Speaker 1: and again, how exactly does the White House believe it 373 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 1: can follow the Russia policy that it has articulated and 374 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 1: follow the Iran policy has articulated simultaneously, because they are 375 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: really running in opposite directions, assuming that the administration is 376 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,160 Speaker 1: so determined that it's going to get something no matter 377 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: how bad it is, because then they'll be able to claim, look, 378 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: we got a deal. Is there anything Congress can do 379 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: to stop that? I think that's a key question, and 380 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: It's especially a key question where we are now in 381 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: an election year, because there's a tremendous amount that Congress 382 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: can do if it's incentivized to do so, to push 383 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 1: back against the Bidenministration's Iran policy, ranging from the application 384 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: of additional sanctions on Iran to the disaggregation of the 385 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: bidenministrations policy, to really take a look at the new deal, 386 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: to take a look at what loopholes may exist, to 387 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: apply additional pressure to make sure this robust congressional oversight 388 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 1: over the agreement, to hold the White House's feet to 389 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: the fire and force it to bring the agreement for 390 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 1: review in front of Congress. And so there are things 391 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: that Congress can do, and you're beginning to see more 392 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: and more members of Congress in both the House and 393 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 1: the Senate talk about the need for a more robust 394 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 1: pushback on the Bidendministration's Iran policy. And I think all 395 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: of that is going to be reinforced by the latest 396 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,400 Speaker 1: polling numbers, the new McLaughlin Pole, which is just out 397 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 1: in the last couple of days, shows that two thirds 398 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 1: of Americans roughly do not trust Iran. Two thirds of 399 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 1: Americans do not believe that negotiations are a good idea, 400 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: and by roughly the same proportion that increased sanctions are 401 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 1: the proper way to address Iran. That's all I think, 402 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: meet for members of Congress and a message that they'll 403 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: carry forward in that sense. Also, I would think that 404 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: given the current growing hostility to the viciousness and the 405 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: barbarism of the Russian attack on Ukraine and the things 406 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,199 Speaker 1: like the mass graves and the mass murders, that a 407 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: congressional provision that no sanctions can be waived in an 408 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: irandeal would have a fair chance of actually potentially getting 409 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,640 Speaker 1: to a veto override. I think that's exactly right. As 410 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 1: we move forward in time, as we see exactly how 411 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 1: weak the new what I would like to call the 412 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 1: JCPOA minus because it's shorter and weaker than the original JCPOA. 413 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: Even as we see the true contours of this agreement, 414 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: the appetite on the part of the legislative branch to 415 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: really push back, to really force an up or down 416 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 1: vote to really examine the contours of this new agreement, 417 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: I think is only set to increase. That's a good thing, 418 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: because objectively, we are seeing the contours of a very 419 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: weak very detrimental agreement, and sunlight is the best disinfected. 420 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,959 Speaker 1: If by some miracle, the Biden administration actually called you 421 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: and said, so, what should we do about Iran? What 422 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: would you tell them? So? I think the center of 423 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 1: gravity and the Iran debate has never been about the regime. 424 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 1: It's always been about the Iranian people. Look, Iran is 425 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 1: a country of eighty five million people. Two thirds of 426 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: them are thirty five. They're younger, which means that they 427 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 1: weren't born or they weren't politically aware at the time 428 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: of the ayatollahmans Islamic Revolution back in nineteen seventy nine. 429 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: And that's why you see on the part of Iranians, 430 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: the Iranian population itself, a tremendous amount of discontent with 431 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 1: the current regime. They not with the ideological agenda. They 432 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 1: are interested in things that they see other countries having. Right, 433 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,639 Speaker 1: Iran is not a hermit kingdom the way North Korea is. 434 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: It's a very tech savvy, very wired, very connected place. 435 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: And that's why you see this groundswell of popular discontent 436 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: because in real actual terms, Iranians are one third poorer 437 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: than they were in nineteen seventy nine, and that sort 438 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: of failure to thrive has real consequences, and that's why 439 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 1: you see the sustained protests that have been taking place 440 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: in Iran since the winter of twenty seventeen. It's why 441 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 1: you see the regime acting more and more brutally to 442 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 1: suppress them. And it's also why you see the Iranian opposition, 443 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 1: which is very disorganized, very disaggregated, beginning to coalesce around 444 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 1: the idea that this regime is an irreformable construct and 445 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: it must be jettison, has to be discarded. And so 446 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: when you take this sort of backdrop as a prelude, 447 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 1: you have to understand that for these opponents of the regime, 448 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 1: both within Iran and outside Iran, what they see the 449 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: Biden administration doing is deeply demoralizing. They see the Biden 450 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 1: administration as functionally propping up a decrepit, out of touch 451 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: and repressive regime. And so, to me, the center of 452 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: gravity is that young population that is going to inherit 453 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: Iran over the next several years, because whether or not 454 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: there is a revolution, whatever political transition transpires, there is 455 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 1: going to be a demographic changeover as the increasingly old, 456 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: aging and infirm clerical regime passes from the scene, something 457 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 1: new is coming. I think the long game for the 458 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: United States has always been about making sure that the 459 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: long arc of Iranian policy, of Iranian attitudes towards the 460 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: West is not fundamentally altered by something that we do. 461 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 1: That's great. Listen, thank you for joining me and for 462 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 1: having this very productive conversation. I think the work you do, 463 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 1: and you know this, I've been a great admirer of 464 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 1: your ability to synthesize and bring together information from all 465 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: over the world, and you and your team at the 466 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: American Foreign Policy Council, I think too a remarkable job. 467 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: As you know, We're very grateful for being able to 468 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 1: work with you and Kallist and I have traveled with you. 469 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: I just really appreciate taking the time today to help 470 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: us better understand the Iran nuclear deal negotiations. And I 471 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: look forward to opportunities in the future. Oh my pleasure anytime, 472 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: and thank you so much for having me. Thank you 473 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: to my guest Delon Berman. You can learn more about 474 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: the Iran nuclear deal negotiations on our show page at 475 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 1: newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by English three 476 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, our 477 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 1: producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 478 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley 479 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 1: especial so thanks to the team at Gingwige three sixty. 480 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying newts World, I hope you'll go 481 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars 482 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: and give us a review so others can learn what 483 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 1: it's all about. Right now, listeners of newts World can 484 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: sign up for my three free weekly columns at Gingwide 485 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm new Gangwidge. This 486 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: is newt World.