WEBVTT - Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.964 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.964 --> 0:00:31.444 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and. 0:00:31.524 --> 0:00:35.964 I'm Nate Silver. So today in typical high low fashion 0:00:36.244 --> 0:00:38.764 Risky Business, We're going to start out with one of 0:00:38.764 --> 0:00:41.684 the most serious topics in the world right now, Iran. 0:00:42.124 --> 0:00:45.444 We're going to navigate carefully around this, in fact, talking 0:00:45.484 --> 0:00:48.724 about how is an American citizen? Let alone podcast co 0:00:48.804 --> 0:00:51.524 host We're trying to navigate things where we don't know 0:00:52.284 --> 0:00:54.524 a lot of the parameters and think about a little 0:00:54.524 --> 0:00:58.004 bit about the domestic conflicts, but also the the strategy 0:00:58.084 --> 0:01:01.644 that Trump faces and the potential for good and bad 0:01:01.684 --> 0:01:02.364 decision making. 0:01:02.844 --> 0:01:06.164 And after that we're gonna do a one eighty and 0:01:06.564 --> 0:01:09.764 talk about poker and what's been going on at the 0:01:09.804 --> 0:01:12.164 World Series, how Nate and I have been doing, and 0:01:12.604 --> 0:01:16.884 some angle shooting and other controversies that have arisen in 0:01:16.924 --> 0:01:19.124 the past week. Because what would a World Series be 0:01:19.244 --> 0:01:20.644 without a controversy a week. 0:01:20.884 --> 0:01:21.844 Let's get into it, Nate. 0:01:26.204 --> 0:01:30.884 We tape this show on Tuesdays. It's Tuesday, June twenty fourth. 0:01:31.404 --> 0:01:34.364 You won't hear this until Thursday, and we always have 0:01:34.484 --> 0:01:37.084 this caveat. But with the situation in Iran right now, 0:01:37.124 --> 0:01:40.764 I think that caveat is extra important because just's changing 0:01:40.804 --> 0:01:45.924 every second. Right So this happens all the time in 0:01:46.124 --> 0:01:49.764 military conflicts, in wars, but in this particular situation, when 0:01:49.804 --> 0:01:54.924 there's so much unknown, so much uncertainty, so much ambiguity, 0:01:55.204 --> 0:01:57.844 where it's so difficult to make judgments, the fact that 0:01:57.884 --> 0:01:59.524 we just don't know what's going on, and that the 0:01:59.564 --> 0:02:04.084 situation keeps changing hour by hour really makes it difficult. 0:02:04.164 --> 0:02:07.684 But as of now, we have Trump having announced on 0:02:07.764 --> 0:02:11.964 truth social that there's a East fire, having successfully bullied 0:02:12.004 --> 0:02:15.844 both sides, just saying okay, okay, we'll have a ceasefire 0:02:15.884 --> 0:02:18.924 at least as of now Tuesday morning. We'll see how 0:02:19.164 --> 0:02:23.364 how this ages on Thursday, but that's where we currently are. 0:02:23.604 --> 0:02:25.644 So just a little bit of a recap in case 0:02:25.684 --> 0:02:28.084 you haven't been following the news at all. The US 0:02:28.164 --> 0:02:33.284 bombed three strategic nuclear sites in Iran. It was a 0:02:33.404 --> 0:02:37.124 successful mission, but maybe not as successful as Trump initially 0:02:37.444 --> 0:02:40.924 made it out to be. Iran retaliated by hitting a 0:02:41.004 --> 0:02:44.484 base the largest US military base the Middle East, in Qatar, 0:02:44.924 --> 0:02:48.004 gave the US ample warning, and Israel and Aron have 0:02:48.044 --> 0:02:51.604 been exchanging strikes up until Tuesday. Morning, where Trump is like, 0:02:51.724 --> 0:02:55.764 Israel stop and Iran stop, there's a ceasefire, and you're 0:02:55.764 --> 0:02:57.244 going to agree to it. So that's where we are 0:02:57.324 --> 0:02:57.764 right now. 0:02:58.324 --> 0:03:02.884 Yeah, I mean, for better or worse. Markets are upfices 0:03:02.924 --> 0:03:05.884 again Tuesday morning, Vegas time, Tuesday afternoon East Coast time. 0:03:05.884 --> 0:03:07.844 When we're taping this market sere up. They seem to 0:03:07.844 --> 0:03:11.564 put some credence in the news. Oil prices are back 0:03:11.644 --> 0:03:14.804 down again. I believe it is a little funny because 0:03:14.844 --> 0:03:18.764 like the heuristic had been taco Trump always chickens out, 0:03:18.844 --> 0:03:22.124 which I think was kind of poorly formed. Right, I 0:03:22.124 --> 0:03:26.924 think Trump is Okay, We're already getting into controversial territory. 0:03:27.084 --> 0:03:30.804 I think Trump is more quote unquote rational. We can 0:03:30.844 --> 0:03:32.924 debate what rational means about some of this stuff than 0:03:32.964 --> 0:03:36.524 he's sometimes given credit for. Right, he backs off when 0:03:36.564 --> 0:03:40.044 he has a losing hand. Here, I don't know. I mean, 0:03:40.044 --> 0:03:42.324 there was apparently we're going to talk about like the 0:03:42.324 --> 0:03:44.964 way Americans feel about this and the splits in the 0:03:44.964 --> 0:03:48.044 Republican Party, right, you know, here there was apparently some 0:03:48.964 --> 0:03:53.724 dissent in the cabinet. Tulsa Gabbard was afraid of doing 0:03:53.764 --> 0:03:56.444 anything mean to Iran. Apparently this is not something that 0:03:56.444 --> 0:03:57.444 Putin likes either. 0:03:57.604 --> 0:03:57.764 Right. 0:03:59.004 --> 0:04:01.644 You know, the Republican Party also has a very complicated 0:04:01.684 --> 0:04:06.044 relationship with the State of Israel, as does America in general, 0:04:06.444 --> 0:04:09.644 and liberals and Democrats as well in their own way. 0:04:10.044 --> 0:04:14.004 But this does appear to have been a Trump decision. 0:04:14.124 --> 0:04:17.924 This is not a case like our previous president, President Biden, 0:04:18.084 --> 0:04:21.004 who was maybe outsourcing a lot of high level decision 0:04:21.004 --> 0:04:22.644 making to members of his cabinet. 0:04:23.084 --> 0:04:25.924 Yeah, so on risky business, you know, we're all about 0:04:25.964 --> 0:04:29.244 good decision analysis, Right, How do you analyze the risk? 0:04:29.324 --> 0:04:31.924 How do you kind of weigh all the factors to 0:04:31.964 --> 0:04:35.404 decide correctly? And in situations like this, like the simple 0:04:35.444 --> 0:04:38.164 truth is that we don't have the information, right, no 0:04:38.164 --> 0:04:41.124 one has the information when you're reading analyzes, you know, 0:04:41.524 --> 0:04:43.564 whether it's in the New York Times or a Foreign 0:04:43.564 --> 0:04:48.084 Policy BBC wherever it is, nobody has the facts and 0:04:48.124 --> 0:04:50.804 we won't have them until much later on. Right, These 0:04:50.804 --> 0:04:53.444 are the sorts of decisions that are analyzed well in 0:04:53.484 --> 0:04:56.084 retrospect by historians when you know, there are things that 0:04:56.164 --> 0:04:58.724 have become declassified, when we know more about what happens 0:04:58.764 --> 0:05:00.964 when the people who were in the room actually start 0:05:01.044 --> 0:05:03.444 talking and right, now we simply don't know. So all 0:05:03.484 --> 0:05:07.364 of these analyzes we've talked before on the show about biases, 0:05:07.364 --> 0:05:11.204 about motivated reasoning, about you know, availability, heuristics, and all 0:05:11.244 --> 0:05:13.644 of these things, and that's I really don't want to 0:05:14.844 --> 0:05:17.924 add to that because I think that people right now 0:05:17.964 --> 0:05:21.924 are being biased by their political leanings, their presuppositions when 0:05:21.964 --> 0:05:24.524 it comes to Iran, the United States should we get involved, 0:05:24.524 --> 0:05:28.804 et cetera. And that is obviously I think tinting their 0:05:28.844 --> 0:05:32.884 analysis in one direction or in another and showing how 0:05:32.884 --> 0:05:36.644 they selectively process information. And so I think that on 0:05:36.684 --> 0:05:39.444 this show, we don't want to do that, right, We're 0:05:39.484 --> 0:05:43.284 not in the business of speculating on people in that 0:05:43.324 --> 0:05:46.324 sort of sense. That's bad decision analysis. And so for now, 0:05:46.404 --> 0:05:48.324 I think what we can focus on is on the 0:05:48.324 --> 0:05:50.604 things that we do now, and as you know, as 0:05:50.644 --> 0:05:52.924 responsible citizens. I think this is what Nate was alluding 0:05:52.964 --> 0:05:56.364 to earlier. You often are in situations, right, this is 0:05:56.444 --> 0:05:59.844 like the extreme of the unknowns because it's a foreign 0:05:59.844 --> 0:06:03.804 policy decision. It was a military strike. Right, everything is classified, 0:06:03.844 --> 0:06:05.844 like we really have no idea what the hell's going on. 0:06:06.444 --> 0:06:08.524 We don't know what the intelligence is, we don't know 0:06:08.564 --> 0:06:12.004 anything but we have to make decisions all the time. 0:06:12.524 --> 0:06:15.004 We're in a democracy, so we vote, So we need 0:06:15.044 --> 0:06:17.124 to kind of try to figure out what do we 0:06:17.204 --> 0:06:20.164 do as citizens in situations of uncertainty? How do we 0:06:20.204 --> 0:06:24.204 try to parse this sort of information? Right, Nate, that's 0:06:24.324 --> 0:06:26.324 that's kind of what you were getting at, Right, How 0:06:26.364 --> 0:06:28.844 do how do we respond? How do we try to 0:06:28.924 --> 0:06:32.964 get through the fog of all of these different opinions 0:06:33.004 --> 0:06:35.044 that may or may not agree with each other, and 0:06:35.084 --> 0:06:37.484 how do we do that in a way that's actually 0:06:37.524 --> 0:06:40.044 as unbiased as possible because it's so easy for me 0:06:40.804 --> 0:06:42.724 to say, like in advance, oh, I agree that we 0:06:42.724 --> 0:06:44.284 should have bombed around or I don't agree that we 0:06:44.324 --> 0:06:46.284 should have bombed Iran, And so I'm going to look 0:06:46.444 --> 0:06:49.204 at those analyzes only and I'll make up my mind. 0:06:49.404 --> 0:06:52.204 Yeah, Like, let's let's enumerate for a minute here, Like 0:06:52.444 --> 0:06:54.684 some of the things that we don't know and in 0:06:54.724 --> 0:06:59.524 fact are deliberately likely to be concealed yep, right or ambiguous? Right? 0:06:59.564 --> 0:07:00.884 You know. Number one thing we don't know is in 0:07:00.924 --> 0:07:05.204 what state was Iran's nuclear program? How close they were 0:07:05.204 --> 0:07:06.764 they developing actual weapons? 0:07:06.804 --> 0:07:06.964 Right? 0:07:07.364 --> 0:07:10.644 Number Two we don't know is how much to set 0:07:10.724 --> 0:07:12.644 them back. I mean, you can look at satellite photos. 0:07:12.684 --> 0:07:15.084 There's a big hole in the ground. Right, did that 0:07:15.124 --> 0:07:17.204 hole was supposed to be dug very and deep in 0:07:17.244 --> 0:07:20.204 the ground get penetrated to the point where they've been 0:07:20.204 --> 0:07:23.084 set back by years? Right? Other other facilities that we 0:07:23.124 --> 0:07:26.764 don't know about. That's number two. Right? Number three is 0:07:27.524 --> 0:07:31.004 to what extent so Israel lacked? I believe they're called 0:07:31.164 --> 0:07:35.124 bunker busting bombs to penetrate far enough if they could 0:07:35.164 --> 0:07:37.724 do some things, they could take out you know, Iranian 0:07:37.844 --> 0:07:39.444 nuclear scientists and things like that. 0:07:39.564 --> 0:07:39.724 Right. 0:07:39.764 --> 0:07:43.804 You know, as a citizen, I'm I'm somewhat curious about 0:07:43.804 --> 0:07:47.684 how much Trump felt like his hand was forced by that. 0:07:47.884 --> 0:07:53.684 Yahoo That creates a complicated equilibrium, right. You know, Look, 0:07:53.844 --> 0:07:56.364 I will say, I'm not a big BB guy. I 0:07:56.364 --> 0:07:59.564 won't go further than that, Right, but you know, where 0:07:59.564 --> 0:08:02.324 we force into a situation that like it may have 0:08:02.324 --> 0:08:05.164 been the most rational action given that choice. We don't 0:08:05.204 --> 0:08:07.044 know that either, And obviously we don't know like any 0:08:07.084 --> 0:08:11.764 of the long term consequences of this. So far, it 0:08:11.844 --> 0:08:16.284 seems like Iran is maybe more concerned about preserving domestic politics. 0:08:16.324 --> 0:08:20.084 But to what extent does this like provoke for their 0:08:20.084 --> 0:08:22.924 hatred of the United States and Israel. Does it provoke 0:08:22.964 --> 0:08:27.084 future terrorist attacks? Does it make countries more determined to 0:08:27.204 --> 0:08:31.044 develop nuclear programs or you know, biological weapons and things 0:08:31.084 --> 0:08:33.844 like that. How does the rest of the Middle East 0:08:33.844 --> 0:08:37.204 and the Arab world feel about this? I mean, one 0:08:37.204 --> 0:08:39.524 of the good things. I think there were a few 0:08:39.524 --> 0:08:41.484 good things in Trump's first term, right, one of which 0:08:41.524 --> 0:08:43.964 is you kind of had And you can debate the 0:08:44.004 --> 0:08:47.564 reasons for this, but we did see improving relations with 0:08:47.604 --> 0:08:50.684 parts of the Arab world during Trump's first term. Are 0:08:50.684 --> 0:08:52.284 they happy about this or not? 0:08:52.564 --> 0:08:52.764 Right? 0:08:53.604 --> 0:08:55.844 We don't know any of that, right, And we also 0:08:55.884 --> 0:08:59.284 don't know to what extent Iran would have used nuclear 0:08:59.324 --> 0:09:03.084 weapons if they had them. I mean, I think they're 0:09:03.124 --> 0:09:05.124 pretty widely regarded as a bad actor. But like also 0:09:05.124 --> 0:09:07.604 that's a question of like stylized facts that we know. 0:09:07.684 --> 0:09:09.644 It's not a case like what's the case, It's like 0:09:09.684 --> 0:09:13.804 much more trivial. Right. It's like congestion pricing in New York. Right, 0:09:14.124 --> 0:09:16.804 if you don't like research the empirical data on that 0:09:16.884 --> 0:09:18.924 and don't look at the mechanism for how it works, right, 0:09:19.084 --> 0:09:20.524 That's something where if you took a day and really 0:09:20.524 --> 0:09:22.684 study it, you might have a valid opinion here, there 0:09:22.684 --> 0:09:25.684 are just things that are unknowable beyond a certain level. 0:09:26.364 --> 0:09:29.124 Yeah, I mean even even to the point where as 0:09:29.164 --> 0:09:31.564 you said, we have no idea how much the nuclear 0:09:31.604 --> 0:09:34.764 program was damaged. You know, there's speculation that a lot 0:09:34.804 --> 0:09:38.004 of nuclear material was actually moved before the strikes, right, 0:09:38.244 --> 0:09:39.924 And we don't know what the counterfacture would have been, 0:09:40.004 --> 0:09:42.964 right Like, would diplomacy have been successful. We have you know, 0:09:43.164 --> 0:09:45.564 historic data that it hasn't been in the past, but 0:09:45.924 --> 0:09:48.404 who knows, right Like, there are so many things that 0:09:48.804 --> 0:09:50.764 we just have no way of telling, and we don't 0:09:50.844 --> 0:09:55.004 know how Iran is going to react right now kind 0:09:55.004 --> 0:09:57.204 of over the long term. Right now, it seems like 0:09:57.244 --> 0:09:59.004 the ceasefire is going to hold because it is a 0:09:59.004 --> 0:10:02.284 great you know, rationally like it seems to me it's 0:10:02.324 --> 0:10:04.564 a great space saving thing, right Like, if you know 0:10:04.644 --> 0:10:07.604 that you don't really want the US to keep attacking you, 0:10:07.604 --> 0:10:09.844 you can say, look, hey, we launched a at the 0:10:09.844 --> 0:10:13.804 biggest US base in the region. But obviously they warned 0:10:13.924 --> 0:10:15.884 the US ahead of time that this was going to happen, 0:10:16.164 --> 0:10:18.244 so there were no casualties. But you can say, here 0:10:18.524 --> 0:10:21.004 there's a win for all of us. We retaliated. Now 0:10:21.004 --> 0:10:24.444 we're all going to step back. But what's the as 0:10:24.484 --> 0:10:27.524 innate as you kind of alluded to, what's the long 0:10:27.604 --> 0:10:30.084 term plan here? If we kind of saved all our 0:10:30.164 --> 0:10:33.724 nuclear materials, do we just lie low for a few years, right, 0:10:34.204 --> 0:10:37.884 and pretend that everything's fine? But really, like this really 0:10:37.924 --> 0:10:40.964 pissed us off. What's going to happen? And the truth 0:10:41.044 --> 0:10:43.804 is we can speculate, but speculation isn't going to be 0:10:44.044 --> 0:10:47.044 particularly helpful in the absence of this sort of information. 0:10:47.644 --> 0:10:50.324 And this is one of those times when I would 0:10:50.404 --> 0:10:55.404 really really caution everyone to really try to understand what 0:10:55.444 --> 0:10:58.324 your biases are, because those are really going to affect 0:10:58.364 --> 0:11:02.564 how you're interpreting information, what information you're seeing as legitimate 0:11:02.924 --> 0:11:05.604 or not legitimate. And that's true by the way of 0:11:06.124 --> 0:11:09.404 policymakers as well. Right, this is one of those situations 0:11:09.604 --> 0:11:14.124 where like, because of all of the uncertainty, actually are 0:11:15.484 --> 0:11:20.124 reaching for heuristics and our brains kind of reliance on 0:11:20.204 --> 0:11:23.684 biases becomes greater. So it's one of those things where 0:11:23.724 --> 0:11:26.404 like there's an inverse relationship where well, actually no, it's 0:11:26.404 --> 0:11:27.244 a direct relationship. 0:11:27.324 --> 0:11:27.484 Right. 0:11:27.604 --> 0:11:30.644 The greater the uncertainty the greater our use of heuristics 0:11:30.644 --> 0:11:33.084 and biases, because we don't actually have a lot of 0:11:33.084 --> 0:11:37.524 information to go on, and so we go on what 0:11:37.604 --> 0:11:39.804 we want to be true and gut feeling, and it's 0:11:39.884 --> 0:11:42.324 much easier than to support that point of view. That's 0:11:42.324 --> 0:11:46.684 a relationship that's very, very tricky and something that we 0:11:46.764 --> 0:11:49.204 really need to avoid, including you and me, Nate right like, 0:11:49.244 --> 0:11:53.404 we do it too, We're human. It's really difficult to 0:11:53.764 --> 0:11:57.844 think clearly when you have all of this uncertainty. I 0:11:57.844 --> 0:11:59.764 do want to go back to a point you made, 0:11:59.804 --> 0:12:02.204 because I do think it's really interesting. And I was like, 0:12:02.284 --> 0:12:05.644 what the hell, especially initially, like when you see that 0:12:06.604 --> 0:12:09.004 the stock market, you know, and crypto and all these 0:12:09.004 --> 0:12:13.004 things were not like they weren't really reacting right. Even 0:12:13.044 --> 0:12:15.844 before the ceasefire when there was news of the bombing, 0:12:15.924 --> 0:12:17.924 I was like, Oh, this is probably not going to 0:12:17.924 --> 0:12:20.644 be that bad, right. We saw a much bigger fall 0:12:20.764 --> 0:12:24.044 in both the last time that there was potential for 0:12:24.164 --> 0:12:27.044 uncertainty and Iran a little over a year ago, and 0:12:27.084 --> 0:12:30.004 this time everything was very muted, and I wonder if 0:12:30.004 --> 0:12:32.724 that's just over correction saying, oh, well, last time nothing 0:12:32.764 --> 0:12:34.524 bad happened, so we're just going to assume that it's 0:12:34.564 --> 0:12:37.204 going to be just like last time, or if it's 0:12:37.244 --> 0:12:40.124 wishful thinking, you know, oh well, we don't want anything 0:12:40.164 --> 0:12:42.924 bad to happen, so we're just going to kind of 0:12:43.084 --> 0:12:44.844 pretend nothing bad's going to happen. 0:12:44.924 --> 0:12:47.244 What is it, Well, yeah, this famous thing where like 0:12:47.724 --> 0:12:50.604 the stock market doesn't really discount for the price of 0:12:50.644 --> 0:12:53.124 nuclear war because if we're all dead, then nobody cares 0:12:53.124 --> 0:12:57.164 what you're for. One k is worth. I do think 0:12:57.164 --> 0:13:01.524 it's worth saying that. Like, Iran's a big country in 0:13:02.044 --> 0:13:05.724 various senses of that term, right, it has ninety million people. 0:13:05.724 --> 0:13:08.444 I think Ted Cruz got that wrong in some interview. 0:13:08.484 --> 0:13:11.004 It's ninety million people. It's a lot of people. It's 0:13:11.044 --> 0:13:13.724 GDP per capita it is not very high as four 0:13:13.804 --> 0:13:17.284 ero point five thousand per head. That's down. I don't 0:13:17.244 --> 0:13:20.124 know what, except it's oil price fluctuations versus regime change 0:13:20.204 --> 0:13:22.204 versus everything else. As of twenty as we say, as 0:13:22.204 --> 0:13:26.484 twenty twelve, it had a higher per capita GDP than China, 0:13:26.564 --> 0:13:29.844 so the world changes a lot. It occupies a very 0:13:30.684 --> 0:13:35.084 important strategic location in terms of the way that oil 0:13:35.204 --> 0:13:37.564 is moving and other goods are moving around. The Middle 0:13:37.604 --> 0:13:40.844 East and around the world. So this is a high 0:13:40.924 --> 0:13:42.844 leverage decision point. And by the way, it's like not 0:13:43.004 --> 0:13:49.084 really invadable. Even foolish Americans I think would not be 0:13:49.164 --> 0:13:51.924 inclined to invade. This country's much more populous and much 0:13:51.924 --> 0:13:55.964 more mountainous than say Iraq. Right, maybe in some ways 0:13:55.964 --> 0:13:59.524 it's better. I don't think there's any risk of like 0:14:01.244 --> 0:14:03.484 turning this into a ground world, Like I do want 0:14:03.484 --> 0:14:07.204 to say a couple of things here, right, you know, 0:14:07.284 --> 0:14:11.804 One is that more countries having nuclear weapons is probably 0:14:12.404 --> 0:14:17.684 probably bad. Right, you know, I think people on balance 0:14:17.764 --> 0:14:21.364 understate the risk of a nuclear conflict. It hasn't been 0:14:21.364 --> 0:14:23.164 that long, just a couple of generations since the world 0:14:23.164 --> 0:14:28.044 has had weapons these powerful, right, So you know, other 0:14:28.084 --> 0:14:30.604 things be equal, and things are not equal international law 0:14:30.684 --> 0:14:34.204 and precedents and norms and things like that. And you know, 0:14:34.244 --> 0:14:36.964 why does Israel get to have Unofficially it's a strategic 0:14:37.044 --> 0:14:39.604 mbig explicient. Everyone believes that Israel has nuclear weapons, right, 0:14:40.044 --> 0:14:42.884 you know who deserves them and who doesn't. I don't 0:14:42.884 --> 0:14:45.844 know about that paternalism or whatever else, right, but some 0:14:45.844 --> 0:14:48.004 people think we want regime change in a random like 0:14:49.204 --> 0:14:53.684 the one thing I'll say about Trump because obviously we've 0:14:53.684 --> 0:14:56.004 talked about Okay, you don't know all the facts, really 0:14:56.044 --> 0:14:58.084 don't know any of the important facts, right, so you 0:14:58.124 --> 0:15:01.804 default to priors, and what's a prior versus a bias? 0:15:01.884 --> 0:15:02.084 Right? 0:15:02.684 --> 0:15:04.684 You know, I would feel better if Trump had people 0:15:04.764 --> 0:15:08.524 obsessions of power that he had in his first term. Right, 0:15:08.564 --> 0:15:11.524 if Pete Hegseth or Chelsea Gabberd don't like this, I 0:15:11.564 --> 0:15:13.884 actually feel better about it, right, I believe it or not, 0:15:14.004 --> 0:15:18.924 Trump trust Trump's judgment more than them frankly. But that's 0:15:18.924 --> 0:15:21.124 the why we've come to it. That's the point we've 0:15:21.164 --> 0:15:26.124 come to. But he has not been particularly hawkish, right. 0:15:26.524 --> 0:15:29.404 He's been trying, I think not terribly effectively to be 0:15:29.484 --> 0:15:35.084 negotiating a ceasefire with in Ukraine. Right, He's been all 0:15:35.084 --> 0:15:38.524 over the place on China. Right, but you know, we 0:15:38.564 --> 0:15:41.764 didn't have any new wars in Trump's first term. And 0:15:41.804 --> 0:15:45.164 so so okay, you can clip this and criticize me. 0:15:45.364 --> 0:15:48.444 You know the fact that like he's not doesn't have 0:15:48.484 --> 0:15:55.484 this bushy and default toward intervention, I think is a 0:15:55.524 --> 0:15:57.924 meaningful affects the priors a little bit. 0:15:58.804 --> 0:16:01.724 It actually does, it makes you and like I said, 0:16:01.924 --> 0:16:04.764 we want to try to avoid speculation, but you know, 0:16:04.964 --> 0:16:10.324 with these priors, it does seem like a potential thing 0:16:10.364 --> 0:16:13.124 that he was thinking was not like I want the 0:16:13.204 --> 0:16:16.844 US to be involved in Iran, but rather, oh, like 0:16:16.924 --> 0:16:21.244 I think that I can just bomb them and they'll 0:16:21.284 --> 0:16:24.084 do what I say, and we'll be one and done, 0:16:24.164 --> 0:16:26.724 and then I'll be this beautiful peace broker, right, because 0:16:26.724 --> 0:16:29.204 that's kind of what he like. That's always that's what 0:16:29.244 --> 0:16:31.604 he wanted to do in Ukraine, not bombing Ukraine, but 0:16:31.684 --> 0:16:35.044 he wants like, he wants to be seen as the peacemaker, right, 0:16:35.044 --> 0:16:37.084 and he wants it to be done quickly. When he 0:16:37.124 --> 0:16:40.404 took office, this we know, so this isn't speculation. You know, 0:16:40.444 --> 0:16:42.284 he said, oh, I'll end the war in Ukraine in 0:16:42.364 --> 0:16:45.604 twenty four hours. Obviously that didn't happen, but in his head, 0:16:46.164 --> 0:16:49.844 you know, he can end everything in twenty four hours, 0:16:49.964 --> 0:16:52.724 just you know, Trump shows up and he makes peace, 0:16:52.764 --> 0:16:54.684 and so I think that this might have been a 0:16:54.724 --> 0:16:57.524 bid too. Okay, well we'll just bomb them and then 0:16:57.604 --> 0:16:59.884 everything will be fine and I can make peace and 0:17:00.044 --> 0:17:03.644 we'll end this situation in twenty four hours or forty 0:17:03.684 --> 0:17:06.164 eight hours or whatever it is. And that might seem 0:17:06.204 --> 0:17:09.764 like insane thinking from the outside, but it is the 0:17:09.804 --> 0:17:12.004 type of thinking that he's engaged in over and over 0:17:12.044 --> 0:17:15.084 and over, so that seems like that might have been 0:17:15.084 --> 0:17:17.204 what was going on in his head. Rather than oh, 0:17:17.204 --> 0:17:20.044 we want another protected conflict, it was more of a 0:17:20.404 --> 0:17:22.644 one and done. Right. If I do this, then I 0:17:22.644 --> 0:17:25.044 can be Trump the Great. I can get a Nobel 0:17:25.044 --> 0:17:29.164 piece price for a broker in piece between Iran and Israel. 0:17:30.204 --> 0:17:33.004 Yeah. Look, Trump won the Republican nomination in twenty sixteen 0:17:33.124 --> 0:17:37.404 in part because he explicitly campaigned against Bushism in various forms, right, 0:17:37.484 --> 0:17:41.244 and against foreign entanglements, especially in the Middle East. I mean, 0:17:41.284 --> 0:17:45.324 in terms of the domestic politics, this policy or this 0:17:45.364 --> 0:17:48.524 decision to bomb Iran depends on how the question is phrased. Right, 0:17:49.204 --> 0:17:53.764 appears to be actually slightly unpopular on Trump's net approo 0:17:53.764 --> 0:17:56.804 writting in the silver boltipulling average is a negative six 0:17:56.844 --> 0:18:00.684 point eight. It's been fluctuating. It's actually fallen over the 0:18:00.724 --> 0:18:03.844 past couple of days, whether it's an Iran effect or 0:18:03.884 --> 0:18:06.084 just sistical noise. I think we'll need more data to show. 0:18:06.124 --> 0:18:08.284 Maybe by Thursday you're looking at that, you'll have more. 0:18:08.964 --> 0:18:11.844 But yeah, Maerica books, very skeptical of foreign intervention in 0:18:11.884 --> 0:18:14.644 general in the Middle East in particular, has grown more 0:18:14.644 --> 0:18:17.524 skeptical of Israel to the extent that we are are. 0:18:18.764 --> 0:18:22.724 You know, I don't think it's a helpful factor necessarily. So, 0:18:22.964 --> 0:18:25.444 you know, Trump, it's not a it's not a move. 0:18:25.524 --> 0:18:28.404 It may be a cynical move to you know, Pollymark 0:18:28.444 --> 0:18:30.084 has a ten percent chance that he wins a Nobel 0:18:30.084 --> 0:18:33.044 Peace Prize or something. Right, But it's like, I don't 0:18:33.084 --> 0:18:36.084 think it's a cynical Bush era move of Oh my 0:18:36.204 --> 0:18:39.244 proval writing is falling, let's bomb somewhere, right. I don't 0:18:39.244 --> 0:18:43.484 think that quote unquote trick works very well anymore. People 0:18:43.524 --> 0:18:47.484 are very wary before and wars. Often what happens historically 0:18:47.604 --> 0:18:50.124 is that you get an approval rating bump and then 0:18:50.204 --> 0:18:52.564 things turn into a quagmire and then the president becomes 0:18:52.604 --> 0:18:55.764 deeply unpopular. Here Trump, I don't way, whether it's a 0:18:55.764 --> 0:18:57.684 decline or it's steady, does not appear to be a 0:18:57.684 --> 0:19:00.964 bump coming at least from this right, So that historical 0:19:01.084 --> 0:19:05.964 reward not being there I think might affect your your 0:19:05.964 --> 0:19:08.404 priors too. That I don't know. I mean, there are 0:19:08.444 --> 0:19:11.124 lots of cynical reasons to do this, I guess. But like, 0:19:11.564 --> 0:19:15.724 but having lived through Iraq in Afghanistan, you know, and Trump, 0:19:15.764 --> 0:19:20.404 I think again has good instincts for why the previous 0:19:20.444 --> 0:19:23.444 Republicans became unpopular. I don't think he's doing this as 0:19:23.484 --> 0:19:26.684 a way to like boose his popularity. And he's enough 0:19:26.724 --> 0:19:30.964 other ways to have little cheap tricks to like to 0:19:31.044 --> 0:19:33.244 do that. And like, you know, I'm not sure particularly 0:19:33.284 --> 0:19:36.564 cares about foreign policy. Right he said recently, oh, there 0:19:36.564 --> 0:19:39.484 are no permanent enemies. Was in the context of China 0:19:39.844 --> 0:19:43.964 or Russia or whatever else, Right, But like he's transactional, 0:19:44.484 --> 0:19:51.524 he's a deal maker, and maybe in some ways I 0:19:51.564 --> 0:19:56.524 prefer that to the grandiosity of Bush era foreign policy. 0:19:56.644 --> 0:19:58.404 I'm I'm I'm not sure. 0:19:59.404 --> 0:20:01.844 Yeah, it's a it's a tough one. I don't think 0:20:01.844 --> 0:20:03.924 I can go as far as to say I prefer 0:20:03.964 --> 0:20:04.804 those because. 0:20:04.564 --> 0:20:09.044 We just have you know, it's not I mean, yeah, it's. 0:20:08.844 --> 0:20:11.964 Not a particular high bar. But it's just in the 0:20:12.004 --> 0:20:14.764 sense that I think that there's a kind of Trump's 0:20:14.844 --> 0:20:18.484 vision and then there's kind of the reality. Right. He 0:20:18.524 --> 0:20:21.124 sees himself as, oh, I can be this peacemaker, but 0:20:21.684 --> 0:20:24.444 the reality of it is that he might do things 0:20:24.484 --> 0:20:28.444 that have unforeseen or they could have been foreseen by 0:20:28.484 --> 0:20:32.044 good advisors, but unforeseen by him, long term consequences that 0:20:32.084 --> 0:20:36.484 really fuck the world over. So it's kind of it's 0:20:36.564 --> 0:20:39.724 kind of one of these one of these situations where, yes, 0:20:39.764 --> 0:20:42.324 he doesn't want to entangle us. However, and I will 0:20:42.364 --> 0:20:44.764 also say, in terms of his approval ratings, we've just 0:20:44.804 --> 0:20:48.524 seen historically over and over and over that the Trump coalition, 0:20:48.724 --> 0:20:52.324 kind of the MAGA coalition, is able to stomach complete 0:20:52.564 --> 0:20:55.484 changes of policy when they come from Trump right, Like 0:20:55.524 --> 0:20:58.364 he's just so good at persuading his base that what 0:20:58.444 --> 0:21:00.764 he's doing is the right thing. So I would not 0:21:00.804 --> 0:21:03.164 be at all surprised that if we do end up 0:21:03.244 --> 0:21:05.764 kind of becoming more entangled in the Middle East, that 0:21:05.844 --> 0:21:08.044 all of a sudden, the same people who were saying 0:21:08.044 --> 0:21:10.844 no foreign entanglements will be like, yeah, America first, like 0:21:10.924 --> 0:21:13.604 we're we're gonna show them what's happening. And we were 0:21:13.644 --> 0:21:16.524 for this all along. So I can definitely I don't 0:21:16.524 --> 0:21:19.604 see that this is going to actually do lasting damage 0:21:19.644 --> 0:21:22.044 to him, because he has shown himself to be just 0:21:22.284 --> 0:21:26.444 phenomenally good at being able to turn any sentiment in 0:21:26.524 --> 0:21:29.924 his favor that's his superpower, right, Like, he is so 0:21:29.964 --> 0:21:32.524 good at convincing his base that whatever he decided to 0:21:32.564 --> 0:21:35.124