1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,964 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,964 --> 00:00:31,444 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and. 3 00:00:31,524 --> 00:00:35,964 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. So today in typical high low fashion 4 00:00:36,244 --> 00:00:38,764 Speaker 2: Risky Business, We're going to start out with one of 5 00:00:38,764 --> 00:00:41,684 Speaker 2: the most serious topics in the world right now, Iran. 6 00:00:42,124 --> 00:00:45,444 Speaker 2: We're going to navigate carefully around this, in fact, talking 7 00:00:45,484 --> 00:00:48,724 Speaker 2: about how is an American citizen? Let alone podcast co 8 00:00:48,804 --> 00:00:51,524 Speaker 2: host We're trying to navigate things where we don't know 9 00:00:52,284 --> 00:00:54,524 Speaker 2: a lot of the parameters and think about a little 10 00:00:54,524 --> 00:00:58,004 Speaker 2: bit about the domestic conflicts, but also the the strategy 11 00:00:58,084 --> 00:01:01,644 Speaker 2: that Trump faces and the potential for good and bad 12 00:01:01,684 --> 00:01:02,364 Speaker 2: decision making. 13 00:01:02,844 --> 00:01:06,164 Speaker 1: And after that we're gonna do a one eighty and 14 00:01:06,564 --> 00:01:09,764 Speaker 1: talk about poker and what's been going on at the 15 00:01:09,804 --> 00:01:12,164 Speaker 1: World Series, how Nate and I have been doing, and 16 00:01:12,604 --> 00:01:16,884 Speaker 1: some angle shooting and other controversies that have arisen in 17 00:01:16,924 --> 00:01:19,124 Speaker 1: the past week. Because what would a World Series be 18 00:01:19,244 --> 00:01:20,644 Speaker 1: without a controversy a week. 19 00:01:20,884 --> 00:01:21,844 Speaker 2: Let's get into it, Nate. 20 00:01:26,204 --> 00:01:30,884 Speaker 1: We tape this show on Tuesdays. It's Tuesday, June twenty fourth. 21 00:01:31,404 --> 00:01:34,364 Speaker 1: You won't hear this until Thursday, and we always have 22 00:01:34,484 --> 00:01:37,084 Speaker 1: this caveat. But with the situation in Iran right now, 23 00:01:37,124 --> 00:01:40,764 Speaker 1: I think that caveat is extra important because just's changing 24 00:01:40,804 --> 00:01:45,924 Speaker 1: every second. Right So this happens all the time in 25 00:01:46,124 --> 00:01:49,764 Speaker 1: military conflicts, in wars, but in this particular situation, when 26 00:01:49,804 --> 00:01:54,924 Speaker 1: there's so much unknown, so much uncertainty, so much ambiguity, 27 00:01:55,204 --> 00:01:57,844 Speaker 1: where it's so difficult to make judgments, the fact that 28 00:01:57,884 --> 00:01:59,524 Speaker 1: we just don't know what's going on, and that the 29 00:01:59,564 --> 00:02:04,084 Speaker 1: situation keeps changing hour by hour really makes it difficult. 30 00:02:04,164 --> 00:02:07,684 Speaker 1: But as of now, we have Trump having announced on 31 00:02:07,764 --> 00:02:11,964 Speaker 1: truth social that there's a East fire, having successfully bullied 32 00:02:12,004 --> 00:02:15,844 Speaker 1: both sides, just saying okay, okay, we'll have a ceasefire 33 00:02:15,884 --> 00:02:18,924 Speaker 1: at least as of now Tuesday morning. We'll see how 34 00:02:19,164 --> 00:02:23,364 Speaker 1: how this ages on Thursday, but that's where we currently are. 35 00:02:23,604 --> 00:02:25,644 Speaker 1: So just a little bit of a recap in case 36 00:02:25,684 --> 00:02:28,084 Speaker 1: you haven't been following the news at all. The US 37 00:02:28,164 --> 00:02:33,284 Speaker 1: bombed three strategic nuclear sites in Iran. It was a 38 00:02:33,404 --> 00:02:37,124 Speaker 1: successful mission, but maybe not as successful as Trump initially 39 00:02:37,444 --> 00:02:40,924 Speaker 1: made it out to be. Iran retaliated by hitting a 40 00:02:41,004 --> 00:02:44,484 Speaker 1: base the largest US military base the Middle East, in Qatar, 41 00:02:44,924 --> 00:02:48,004 Speaker 1: gave the US ample warning, and Israel and Aron have 42 00:02:48,044 --> 00:02:51,604 Speaker 1: been exchanging strikes up until Tuesday. Morning, where Trump is like, 43 00:02:51,724 --> 00:02:55,764 Speaker 1: Israel stop and Iran stop, there's a ceasefire, and you're 44 00:02:55,764 --> 00:02:57,244 Speaker 1: going to agree to it. So that's where we are 45 00:02:57,324 --> 00:02:57,764 Speaker 1: right now. 46 00:02:58,324 --> 00:03:02,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, for better or worse. Markets are upfices 47 00:03:02,924 --> 00:03:05,884 Speaker 2: again Tuesday morning, Vegas time, Tuesday afternoon East Coast time. 48 00:03:05,884 --> 00:03:07,844 Speaker 2: When we're taping this market sere up. They seem to 49 00:03:07,844 --> 00:03:11,564 Speaker 2: put some credence in the news. Oil prices are back 50 00:03:11,644 --> 00:03:14,804 Speaker 2: down again. I believe it is a little funny because 51 00:03:14,844 --> 00:03:18,764 Speaker 2: like the heuristic had been taco Trump always chickens out, 52 00:03:18,844 --> 00:03:22,124 Speaker 2: which I think was kind of poorly formed. Right, I 53 00:03:22,124 --> 00:03:26,924 Speaker 2: think Trump is Okay, We're already getting into controversial territory. 54 00:03:27,084 --> 00:03:30,804 Speaker 2: I think Trump is more quote unquote rational. We can 55 00:03:30,844 --> 00:03:32,924 Speaker 2: debate what rational means about some of this stuff than 56 00:03:32,964 --> 00:03:36,524 Speaker 2: he's sometimes given credit for. Right, he backs off when 57 00:03:36,564 --> 00:03:40,044 Speaker 2: he has a losing hand. Here, I don't know. I mean, 58 00:03:40,044 --> 00:03:42,324 Speaker 2: there was apparently we're going to talk about like the 59 00:03:42,324 --> 00:03:44,964 Speaker 2: way Americans feel about this and the splits in the 60 00:03:44,964 --> 00:03:48,044 Speaker 2: Republican Party, right, you know, here there was apparently some 61 00:03:48,964 --> 00:03:53,724 Speaker 2: dissent in the cabinet. Tulsa Gabbard was afraid of doing 62 00:03:53,764 --> 00:03:56,444 Speaker 2: anything mean to Iran. Apparently this is not something that 63 00:03:56,444 --> 00:03:57,444 Speaker 2: Putin likes either. 64 00:03:57,604 --> 00:03:57,764 Speaker 1: Right. 65 00:03:59,004 --> 00:04:01,644 Speaker 2: You know, the Republican Party also has a very complicated 66 00:04:01,684 --> 00:04:06,044 Speaker 2: relationship with the State of Israel, as does America in general, 67 00:04:06,444 --> 00:04:09,644 Speaker 2: and liberals and Democrats as well in their own way. 68 00:04:10,044 --> 00:04:14,004 Speaker 2: But this does appear to have been a Trump decision. 69 00:04:14,124 --> 00:04:17,924 Speaker 2: This is not a case like our previous president, President Biden, 70 00:04:18,084 --> 00:04:21,004 Speaker 2: who was maybe outsourcing a lot of high level decision 71 00:04:21,004 --> 00:04:22,644 Speaker 2: making to members of his cabinet. 72 00:04:23,084 --> 00:04:25,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, so on risky business, you know, we're all about 73 00:04:25,964 --> 00:04:29,244 Speaker 1: good decision analysis, Right, How do you analyze the risk? 74 00:04:29,324 --> 00:04:31,924 Speaker 1: How do you kind of weigh all the factors to 75 00:04:31,964 --> 00:04:35,404 Speaker 1: decide correctly? And in situations like this, like the simple 76 00:04:35,444 --> 00:04:38,164 Speaker 1: truth is that we don't have the information, right, no 77 00:04:38,164 --> 00:04:41,124 Speaker 1: one has the information when you're reading analyzes, you know, 78 00:04:41,524 --> 00:04:43,564 Speaker 1: whether it's in the New York Times or a Foreign 79 00:04:43,564 --> 00:04:48,084 Speaker 1: Policy BBC wherever it is, nobody has the facts and 80 00:04:48,124 --> 00:04:50,804 Speaker 1: we won't have them until much later on. Right, These 81 00:04:50,804 --> 00:04:53,444 Speaker 1: are the sorts of decisions that are analyzed well in 82 00:04:53,484 --> 00:04:56,084 Speaker 1: retrospect by historians when you know, there are things that 83 00:04:56,164 --> 00:04:58,724 Speaker 1: have become declassified, when we know more about what happens 84 00:04:58,764 --> 00:05:00,964 Speaker 1: when the people who were in the room actually start 85 00:05:01,044 --> 00:05:03,444 Speaker 1: talking and right, now we simply don't know. So all 86 00:05:03,484 --> 00:05:07,364 Speaker 1: of these analyzes we've talked before on the show about biases, 87 00:05:07,364 --> 00:05:11,204 Speaker 1: about motivated reasoning, about you know, availability, heuristics, and all 88 00:05:11,244 --> 00:05:13,644 Speaker 1: of these things, and that's I really don't want to 89 00:05:14,844 --> 00:05:17,924 Speaker 1: add to that because I think that people right now 90 00:05:17,964 --> 00:05:21,924 Speaker 1: are being biased by their political leanings, their presuppositions when 91 00:05:21,964 --> 00:05:24,524 Speaker 1: it comes to Iran, the United States should we get involved, 92 00:05:24,524 --> 00:05:28,804 Speaker 1: et cetera. And that is obviously I think tinting their 93 00:05:28,844 --> 00:05:32,884 Speaker 1: analysis in one direction or in another and showing how 94 00:05:32,884 --> 00:05:36,644 Speaker 1: they selectively process information. And so I think that on 95 00:05:36,684 --> 00:05:39,444 Speaker 1: this show, we don't want to do that, right, We're 96 00:05:39,484 --> 00:05:43,284 Speaker 1: not in the business of speculating on people in that 97 00:05:43,324 --> 00:05:46,324 Speaker 1: sort of sense. That's bad decision analysis. And so for now, 98 00:05:46,404 --> 00:05:48,324 Speaker 1: I think what we can focus on is on the 99 00:05:48,324 --> 00:05:50,604 Speaker 1: things that we do now, and as you know, as 100 00:05:50,644 --> 00:05:52,924 Speaker 1: responsible citizens. I think this is what Nate was alluding 101 00:05:52,964 --> 00:05:56,364 Speaker 1: to earlier. You often are in situations, right, this is 102 00:05:56,444 --> 00:05:59,844 Speaker 1: like the extreme of the unknowns because it's a foreign 103 00:05:59,844 --> 00:06:03,804 Speaker 1: policy decision. It was a military strike. Right, everything is classified, 104 00:06:03,844 --> 00:06:05,844 Speaker 1: like we really have no idea what the hell's going on. 105 00:06:06,444 --> 00:06:08,524 Speaker 1: We don't know what the intelligence is, we don't know 106 00:06:08,564 --> 00:06:12,004 Speaker 1: anything but we have to make decisions all the time. 107 00:06:12,524 --> 00:06:15,004 Speaker 1: We're in a democracy, so we vote, So we need 108 00:06:15,044 --> 00:06:17,124 Speaker 1: to kind of try to figure out what do we 109 00:06:17,204 --> 00:06:20,164 Speaker 1: do as citizens in situations of uncertainty? How do we 110 00:06:20,204 --> 00:06:24,204 Speaker 1: try to parse this sort of information? Right, Nate, that's 111 00:06:24,324 --> 00:06:26,324 Speaker 1: that's kind of what you were getting at, Right, How 112 00:06:26,364 --> 00:06:28,844 Speaker 1: do how do we respond? How do we try to 113 00:06:28,924 --> 00:06:32,964 Speaker 1: get through the fog of all of these different opinions 114 00:06:33,004 --> 00:06:35,044 Speaker 1: that may or may not agree with each other, and 115 00:06:35,084 --> 00:06:37,484 Speaker 1: how do we do that in a way that's actually 116 00:06:37,524 --> 00:06:40,044 Speaker 1: as unbiased as possible because it's so easy for me 117 00:06:40,804 --> 00:06:42,724 Speaker 1: to say, like in advance, oh, I agree that we 118 00:06:42,724 --> 00:06:44,284 Speaker 1: should have bombed around or I don't agree that we 119 00:06:44,324 --> 00:06:46,284 Speaker 1: should have bombed Iran, And so I'm going to look 120 00:06:46,444 --> 00:06:49,204 Speaker 1: at those analyzes only and I'll make up my mind. 121 00:06:49,404 --> 00:06:52,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, let's let's enumerate for a minute here, Like 122 00:06:52,444 --> 00:06:54,684 Speaker 2: some of the things that we don't know and in 123 00:06:54,724 --> 00:06:59,524 Speaker 2: fact are deliberately likely to be concealed yep, right or ambiguous? Right? 124 00:06:59,564 --> 00:07:00,884 Speaker 2: You know. Number one thing we don't know is in 125 00:07:00,924 --> 00:07:05,204 Speaker 2: what state was Iran's nuclear program? How close they were 126 00:07:05,204 --> 00:07:06,764 Speaker 2: they developing actual weapons? 127 00:07:06,804 --> 00:07:06,964 Speaker 1: Right? 128 00:07:07,364 --> 00:07:10,644 Speaker 2: Number Two we don't know is how much to set 129 00:07:10,724 --> 00:07:12,644 Speaker 2: them back. I mean, you can look at satellite photos. 130 00:07:12,684 --> 00:07:15,084 Speaker 2: There's a big hole in the ground. Right, did that 131 00:07:15,124 --> 00:07:17,204 Speaker 2: hole was supposed to be dug very and deep in 132 00:07:17,244 --> 00:07:20,204 Speaker 2: the ground get penetrated to the point where they've been 133 00:07:20,204 --> 00:07:23,084 Speaker 2: set back by years? Right? Other other facilities that we 134 00:07:23,124 --> 00:07:26,764 Speaker 2: don't know about. That's number two. Right? Number three is 135 00:07:27,524 --> 00:07:31,004 Speaker 2: to what extent so Israel lacked? I believe they're called 136 00:07:31,164 --> 00:07:35,124 Speaker 2: bunker busting bombs to penetrate far enough if they could 137 00:07:35,164 --> 00:07:37,724 Speaker 2: do some things, they could take out you know, Iranian 138 00:07:37,844 --> 00:07:39,444 Speaker 2: nuclear scientists and things like that. 139 00:07:39,564 --> 00:07:39,724 Speaker 1: Right. 140 00:07:39,764 --> 00:07:43,804 Speaker 2: You know, as a citizen, I'm I'm somewhat curious about 141 00:07:43,804 --> 00:07:47,684 Speaker 2: how much Trump felt like his hand was forced by that. 142 00:07:47,884 --> 00:07:53,684 Speaker 2: Yahoo That creates a complicated equilibrium, right. You know, Look, 143 00:07:53,844 --> 00:07:56,364 Speaker 2: I will say, I'm not a big BB guy. I 144 00:07:56,364 --> 00:07:59,564 Speaker 2: won't go further than that, Right, but you know, where 145 00:07:59,564 --> 00:08:02,324 Speaker 2: we force into a situation that like it may have 146 00:08:02,324 --> 00:08:05,164 Speaker 2: been the most rational action given that choice. We don't 147 00:08:05,204 --> 00:08:07,044 Speaker 2: know that either, And obviously we don't know like any 148 00:08:07,084 --> 00:08:11,764 Speaker 2: of the long term consequences of this. So far, it 149 00:08:11,844 --> 00:08:16,284 Speaker 2: seems like Iran is maybe more concerned about preserving domestic politics. 150 00:08:16,324 --> 00:08:20,084 Speaker 2: But to what extent does this like provoke for their 151 00:08:20,084 --> 00:08:22,924 Speaker 2: hatred of the United States and Israel. Does it provoke 152 00:08:22,964 --> 00:08:27,084 Speaker 2: future terrorist attacks? Does it make countries more determined to 153 00:08:27,204 --> 00:08:31,044 Speaker 2: develop nuclear programs or you know, biological weapons and things 154 00:08:31,084 --> 00:08:33,844 Speaker 2: like that. How does the rest of the Middle East 155 00:08:33,844 --> 00:08:37,204 Speaker 2: and the Arab world feel about this? I mean, one 156 00:08:37,204 --> 00:08:39,524 Speaker 2: of the good things. I think there were a few 157 00:08:39,524 --> 00:08:41,484 Speaker 2: good things in Trump's first term, right, one of which 158 00:08:41,524 --> 00:08:43,964 Speaker 2: is you kind of had And you can debate the 159 00:08:44,004 --> 00:08:47,564 Speaker 2: reasons for this, but we did see improving relations with 160 00:08:47,604 --> 00:08:50,684 Speaker 2: parts of the Arab world during Trump's first term. Are 161 00:08:50,684 --> 00:08:52,284 Speaker 2: they happy about this or not? 162 00:08:52,564 --> 00:08:52,764 Speaker 1: Right? 163 00:08:53,604 --> 00:08:55,844 Speaker 2: We don't know any of that, right, And we also 164 00:08:55,884 --> 00:08:59,284 Speaker 2: don't know to what extent Iran would have used nuclear 165 00:08:59,324 --> 00:09:03,084 Speaker 2: weapons if they had them. I mean, I think they're 166 00:09:03,124 --> 00:09:05,124 Speaker 2: pretty widely regarded as a bad actor. But like also 167 00:09:05,124 --> 00:09:07,604 Speaker 2: that's a question of like stylized facts that we know. 168 00:09:07,684 --> 00:09:09,644 Speaker 2: It's not a case like what's the case, It's like 169 00:09:09,684 --> 00:09:13,804 Speaker 2: much more trivial. Right. It's like congestion pricing in New York. Right, 170 00:09:14,124 --> 00:09:16,804 Speaker 2: if you don't like research the empirical data on that 171 00:09:16,884 --> 00:09:18,924 Speaker 2: and don't look at the mechanism for how it works, right, 172 00:09:19,084 --> 00:09:20,524 Speaker 2: That's something where if you took a day and really 173 00:09:20,524 --> 00:09:22,684 Speaker 2: study it, you might have a valid opinion here, there 174 00:09:22,684 --> 00:09:25,684 Speaker 2: are just things that are unknowable beyond a certain level. 175 00:09:26,364 --> 00:09:29,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean even even to the point where as 176 00:09:29,164 --> 00:09:31,564 Speaker 1: you said, we have no idea how much the nuclear 177 00:09:31,604 --> 00:09:34,764 Speaker 1: program was damaged. You know, there's speculation that a lot 178 00:09:34,804 --> 00:09:38,004 Speaker 1: of nuclear material was actually moved before the strikes, right, 179 00:09:38,244 --> 00:09:39,924 Speaker 1: And we don't know what the counterfacture would have been, 180 00:09:40,004 --> 00:09:42,964 Speaker 1: right Like, would diplomacy have been successful. We have you know, 181 00:09:43,164 --> 00:09:45,564 Speaker 1: historic data that it hasn't been in the past, but 182 00:09:45,924 --> 00:09:48,404 Speaker 1: who knows, right Like, there are so many things that 183 00:09:48,804 --> 00:09:50,764 Speaker 1: we just have no way of telling, and we don't 184 00:09:50,844 --> 00:09:55,004 Speaker 1: know how Iran is going to react right now kind 185 00:09:55,004 --> 00:09:57,204 Speaker 1: of over the long term. Right now, it seems like 186 00:09:57,244 --> 00:09:59,004 Speaker 1: the ceasefire is going to hold because it is a 187 00:09:59,004 --> 00:10:02,284 Speaker 1: great you know, rationally like it seems to me it's 188 00:10:02,324 --> 00:10:04,564 Speaker 1: a great space saving thing, right Like, if you know 189 00:10:04,644 --> 00:10:07,604 Speaker 1: that you don't really want the US to keep attacking you, 190 00:10:07,604 --> 00:10:09,844 Speaker 1: you can say, look, hey, we launched a at the 191 00:10:09,844 --> 00:10:13,804 Speaker 1: biggest US base in the region. But obviously they warned 192 00:10:13,924 --> 00:10:15,884 Speaker 1: the US ahead of time that this was going to happen, 193 00:10:16,164 --> 00:10:18,244 Speaker 1: so there were no casualties. But you can say, here 194 00:10:18,524 --> 00:10:21,004 Speaker 1: there's a win for all of us. We retaliated. Now 195 00:10:21,004 --> 00:10:24,444 Speaker 1: we're all going to step back. But what's the as 196 00:10:24,484 --> 00:10:27,524 Speaker 1: innate as you kind of alluded to, what's the long 197 00:10:27,604 --> 00:10:30,084 Speaker 1: term plan here? If we kind of saved all our 198 00:10:30,164 --> 00:10:33,724 Speaker 1: nuclear materials, do we just lie low for a few years, right, 199 00:10:34,204 --> 00:10:37,884 Speaker 1: and pretend that everything's fine? But really, like this really 200 00:10:37,924 --> 00:10:40,964 Speaker 1: pissed us off. What's going to happen? And the truth 201 00:10:41,044 --> 00:10:43,804 Speaker 1: is we can speculate, but speculation isn't going to be 202 00:10:44,044 --> 00:10:47,044 Speaker 1: particularly helpful in the absence of this sort of information. 203 00:10:47,644 --> 00:10:50,324 Speaker 1: And this is one of those times when I would 204 00:10:50,404 --> 00:10:55,404 Speaker 1: really really caution everyone to really try to understand what 205 00:10:55,444 --> 00:10:58,324 Speaker 1: your biases are, because those are really going to affect 206 00:10:58,364 --> 00:11:02,564 Speaker 1: how you're interpreting information, what information you're seeing as legitimate 207 00:11:02,924 --> 00:11:05,604 Speaker 1: or not legitimate. And that's true by the way of 208 00:11:06,124 --> 00:11:09,404 Speaker 1: policymakers as well. Right, this is one of those situations 209 00:11:09,604 --> 00:11:14,124 Speaker 1: where like, because of all of the uncertainty, actually are 210 00:11:15,484 --> 00:11:20,124 Speaker 1: reaching for heuristics and our brains kind of reliance on 211 00:11:20,204 --> 00:11:23,684 Speaker 1: biases becomes greater. So it's one of those things where 212 00:11:23,724 --> 00:11:26,404 Speaker 1: like there's an inverse relationship where well, actually no, it's 213 00:11:26,404 --> 00:11:27,244 Speaker 1: a direct relationship. 214 00:11:27,324 --> 00:11:27,484 Speaker 2: Right. 215 00:11:27,604 --> 00:11:30,644 Speaker 1: The greater the uncertainty the greater our use of heuristics 216 00:11:30,644 --> 00:11:33,084 Speaker 1: and biases, because we don't actually have a lot of 217 00:11:33,084 --> 00:11:37,524 Speaker 1: information to go on, and so we go on what 218 00:11:37,604 --> 00:11:39,804 Speaker 1: we want to be true and gut feeling, and it's 219 00:11:39,884 --> 00:11:42,324 Speaker 1: much easier than to support that point of view. That's 220 00:11:42,324 --> 00:11:46,684 Speaker 1: a relationship that's very, very tricky and something that we 221 00:11:46,764 --> 00:11:49,204 Speaker 1: really need to avoid, including you and me, Nate right like, 222 00:11:49,244 --> 00:11:53,404 Speaker 1: we do it too, We're human. It's really difficult to 223 00:11:53,764 --> 00:11:57,844 Speaker 1: think clearly when you have all of this uncertainty. I 224 00:11:57,844 --> 00:11:59,764 Speaker 1: do want to go back to a point you made, 225 00:11:59,804 --> 00:12:02,204 Speaker 1: because I do think it's really interesting. And I was like, 226 00:12:02,284 --> 00:12:05,644 Speaker 1: what the hell, especially initially, like when you see that 227 00:12:06,604 --> 00:12:09,004 Speaker 1: the stock market, you know, and crypto and all these 228 00:12:09,004 --> 00:12:13,004 Speaker 1: things were not like they weren't really reacting right. Even 229 00:12:13,044 --> 00:12:15,844 Speaker 1: before the ceasefire when there was news of the bombing, 230 00:12:15,924 --> 00:12:17,924 Speaker 1: I was like, Oh, this is probably not going to 231 00:12:17,924 --> 00:12:20,644 Speaker 1: be that bad, right. We saw a much bigger fall 232 00:12:20,764 --> 00:12:24,044 Speaker 1: in both the last time that there was potential for 233 00:12:24,164 --> 00:12:27,044 Speaker 1: uncertainty and Iran a little over a year ago, and 234 00:12:27,084 --> 00:12:30,004 Speaker 1: this time everything was very muted, and I wonder if 235 00:12:30,004 --> 00:12:32,724 Speaker 1: that's just over correction saying, oh, well, last time nothing 236 00:12:32,764 --> 00:12:34,524 Speaker 1: bad happened, so we're just going to assume that it's 237 00:12:34,564 --> 00:12:37,204 Speaker 1: going to be just like last time, or if it's 238 00:12:37,244 --> 00:12:40,124 Speaker 1: wishful thinking, you know, oh well, we don't want anything 239 00:12:40,164 --> 00:12:42,924 Speaker 1: bad to happen, so we're just going to kind of 240 00:12:43,084 --> 00:12:44,844 Speaker 1: pretend nothing bad's going to happen. 241 00:12:44,924 --> 00:12:47,244 Speaker 2: What is it, Well, yeah, this famous thing where like 242 00:12:47,724 --> 00:12:50,604 Speaker 2: the stock market doesn't really discount for the price of 243 00:12:50,644 --> 00:12:53,124 Speaker 2: nuclear war because if we're all dead, then nobody cares 244 00:12:53,124 --> 00:12:57,164 Speaker 2: what you're for. One k is worth. I do think 245 00:12:57,164 --> 00:13:01,524 Speaker 2: it's worth saying that. Like, Iran's a big country in 246 00:13:02,044 --> 00:13:05,724 Speaker 2: various senses of that term, right, it has ninety million people. 247 00:13:05,724 --> 00:13:08,444 Speaker 2: I think Ted Cruz got that wrong in some interview. 248 00:13:08,484 --> 00:13:11,004 Speaker 2: It's ninety million people. It's a lot of people. It's 249 00:13:11,044 --> 00:13:13,724 Speaker 2: GDP per capita it is not very high as four 250 00:13:13,804 --> 00:13:17,284 Speaker 2: ero point five thousand per head. That's down. I don't 251 00:13:17,244 --> 00:13:20,124 Speaker 2: know what, except it's oil price fluctuations versus regime change 252 00:13:20,204 --> 00:13:22,204 Speaker 2: versus everything else. As of twenty as we say, as 253 00:13:22,204 --> 00:13:26,484 Speaker 2: twenty twelve, it had a higher per capita GDP than China, 254 00:13:26,564 --> 00:13:29,844 Speaker 2: so the world changes a lot. It occupies a very 255 00:13:30,684 --> 00:13:35,084 Speaker 2: important strategic location in terms of the way that oil 256 00:13:35,204 --> 00:13:37,564 Speaker 2: is moving and other goods are moving around. The Middle 257 00:13:37,604 --> 00:13:40,844 Speaker 2: East and around the world. So this is a high 258 00:13:40,924 --> 00:13:42,844 Speaker 2: leverage decision point. And by the way, it's like not 259 00:13:43,004 --> 00:13:49,084 Speaker 2: really invadable. Even foolish Americans I think would not be 260 00:13:49,164 --> 00:13:51,924 Speaker 2: inclined to invade. This country's much more populous and much 261 00:13:51,924 --> 00:13:55,964 Speaker 2: more mountainous than say Iraq. Right, maybe in some ways 262 00:13:55,964 --> 00:13:59,524 Speaker 2: it's better. I don't think there's any risk of like 263 00:14:01,244 --> 00:14:03,484 Speaker 2: turning this into a ground world, Like I do want 264 00:14:03,484 --> 00:14:07,204 Speaker 2: to say a couple of things here, right, you know, 265 00:14:07,284 --> 00:14:11,804 Speaker 2: One is that more countries having nuclear weapons is probably 266 00:14:12,404 --> 00:14:17,684 Speaker 2: probably bad. Right, you know, I think people on balance 267 00:14:17,764 --> 00:14:21,364 Speaker 2: understate the risk of a nuclear conflict. It hasn't been 268 00:14:21,364 --> 00:14:23,164 Speaker 2: that long, just a couple of generations since the world 269 00:14:23,164 --> 00:14:28,044 Speaker 2: has had weapons these powerful, right, So you know, other 270 00:14:28,084 --> 00:14:30,604 Speaker 2: things be equal, and things are not equal international law 271 00:14:30,684 --> 00:14:34,204 Speaker 2: and precedents and norms and things like that. And you know, 272 00:14:34,244 --> 00:14:36,964 Speaker 2: why does Israel get to have Unofficially it's a strategic 273 00:14:37,044 --> 00:14:39,604 Speaker 2: mbig explicient. Everyone believes that Israel has nuclear weapons, right, 274 00:14:40,044 --> 00:14:42,884 Speaker 2: you know who deserves them and who doesn't. I don't 275 00:14:42,884 --> 00:14:45,844 Speaker 2: know about that paternalism or whatever else, right, but some 276 00:14:45,844 --> 00:14:48,004 Speaker 2: people think we want regime change in a random like 277 00:14:49,204 --> 00:14:53,684 Speaker 2: the one thing I'll say about Trump because obviously we've 278 00:14:53,684 --> 00:14:56,004 Speaker 2: talked about Okay, you don't know all the facts, really 279 00:14:56,044 --> 00:14:58,084 Speaker 2: don't know any of the important facts, right, so you 280 00:14:58,124 --> 00:15:01,804 Speaker 2: default to priors, and what's a prior versus a bias? 281 00:15:01,884 --> 00:15:02,084 Speaker 1: Right? 282 00:15:02,684 --> 00:15:04,684 Speaker 2: You know, I would feel better if Trump had people 283 00:15:04,764 --> 00:15:08,524 Speaker 2: obsessions of power that he had in his first term. Right, 284 00:15:08,564 --> 00:15:11,524 Speaker 2: if Pete Hegseth or Chelsea Gabberd don't like this, I 285 00:15:11,564 --> 00:15:13,884 Speaker 2: actually feel better about it, right, I believe it or not, 286 00:15:14,004 --> 00:15:18,924 Speaker 2: Trump trust Trump's judgment more than them frankly. But that's 287 00:15:18,924 --> 00:15:21,124 Speaker 2: the why we've come to it. That's the point we've 288 00:15:21,164 --> 00:15:26,124 Speaker 2: come to. But he has not been particularly hawkish, right. 289 00:15:26,524 --> 00:15:29,404 Speaker 2: He's been trying, I think not terribly effectively to be 290 00:15:29,484 --> 00:15:35,084 Speaker 2: negotiating a ceasefire with in Ukraine. Right, He's been all 291 00:15:35,084 --> 00:15:38,524 Speaker 2: over the place on China. Right, but you know, we 292 00:15:38,564 --> 00:15:41,764 Speaker 2: didn't have any new wars in Trump's first term. And 293 00:15:41,804 --> 00:15:45,164 Speaker 2: so so okay, you can clip this and criticize me. 294 00:15:45,364 --> 00:15:48,444 Speaker 2: You know the fact that like he's not doesn't have 295 00:15:48,484 --> 00:15:55,484 Speaker 2: this bushy and default toward intervention, I think is a 296 00:15:55,524 --> 00:15:57,924 Speaker 2: meaningful affects the priors a little bit. 297 00:15:58,804 --> 00:16:01,724 Speaker 1: It actually does, it makes you and like I said, 298 00:16:01,924 --> 00:16:04,764 Speaker 1: we want to try to avoid speculation, but you know, 299 00:16:04,964 --> 00:16:10,324 Speaker 1: with these priors, it does seem like a potential thing 300 00:16:10,364 --> 00:16:13,124 Speaker 1: that he was thinking was not like I want the 301 00:16:13,204 --> 00:16:16,844 Speaker 1: US to be involved in Iran, but rather, oh, like 302 00:16:16,924 --> 00:16:21,244 Speaker 1: I think that I can just bomb them and they'll 303 00:16:21,284 --> 00:16:24,084 Speaker 1: do what I say, and we'll be one and done, 304 00:16:24,164 --> 00:16:26,724 Speaker 1: and then I'll be this beautiful peace broker, right, because 305 00:16:26,724 --> 00:16:29,204 Speaker 1: that's kind of what he like. That's always that's what 306 00:16:29,244 --> 00:16:31,604 Speaker 1: he wanted to do in Ukraine, not bombing Ukraine, but 307 00:16:31,684 --> 00:16:35,044 Speaker 1: he wants like, he wants to be seen as the peacemaker, right, 308 00:16:35,044 --> 00:16:37,084 Speaker 1: and he wants it to be done quickly. When he 309 00:16:37,124 --> 00:16:40,404 Speaker 1: took office, this we know, so this isn't speculation. You know, 310 00:16:40,444 --> 00:16:42,284 Speaker 1: he said, oh, I'll end the war in Ukraine in 311 00:16:42,364 --> 00:16:45,604 Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Obviously that didn't happen, but in his head, 312 00:16:46,164 --> 00:16:49,844 Speaker 1: you know, he can end everything in twenty four hours, 313 00:16:49,964 --> 00:16:52,724 Speaker 1: just you know, Trump shows up and he makes peace, 314 00:16:52,764 --> 00:16:54,684 Speaker 1: and so I think that this might have been a 315 00:16:54,724 --> 00:16:57,524 Speaker 1: bid too. Okay, well we'll just bomb them and then 316 00:16:57,604 --> 00:16:59,884 Speaker 1: everything will be fine and I can make peace and 317 00:17:00,044 --> 00:17:03,644 Speaker 1: we'll end this situation in twenty four hours or forty 318 00:17:03,684 --> 00:17:06,164 Speaker 1: eight hours or whatever it is. And that might seem 319 00:17:06,204 --> 00:17:09,764 Speaker 1: like insane thinking from the outside, but it is the 320 00:17:09,804 --> 00:17:12,004 Speaker 1: type of thinking that he's engaged in over and over 321 00:17:12,044 --> 00:17:15,084 Speaker 1: and over, so that seems like that might have been 322 00:17:15,084 --> 00:17:17,204 Speaker 1: what was going on in his head. Rather than oh, 323 00:17:17,204 --> 00:17:20,044 Speaker 1: we want another protected conflict, it was more of a 324 00:17:20,404 --> 00:17:22,644 Speaker 1: one and done. Right. If I do this, then I 325 00:17:22,644 --> 00:17:25,044 Speaker 1: can be Trump the Great. I can get a Nobel 326 00:17:25,044 --> 00:17:29,164 Speaker 1: piece price for a broker in piece between Iran and Israel. 327 00:17:30,204 --> 00:17:33,004 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, Trump won the Republican nomination in twenty sixteen 328 00:17:33,124 --> 00:17:37,404 Speaker 2: in part because he explicitly campaigned against Bushism in various forms, right, 329 00:17:37,484 --> 00:17:41,244 Speaker 2: and against foreign entanglements, especially in the Middle East. I mean, 330 00:17:41,284 --> 00:17:45,324 Speaker 2: in terms of the domestic politics, this policy or this 331 00:17:45,364 --> 00:17:48,524 Speaker 2: decision to bomb Iran depends on how the question is phrased. Right, 332 00:17:49,204 --> 00:17:53,764 Speaker 2: appears to be actually slightly unpopular on Trump's net approo 333 00:17:53,764 --> 00:17:56,804 Speaker 2: writting in the silver boltipulling average is a negative six 334 00:17:56,844 --> 00:18:00,684 Speaker 2: point eight. It's been fluctuating. It's actually fallen over the 335 00:18:00,724 --> 00:18:03,844 Speaker 2: past couple of days, whether it's an Iran effect or 336 00:18:03,884 --> 00:18:06,084 Speaker 2: just sistical noise. I think we'll need more data to show. 337 00:18:06,124 --> 00:18:08,284 Speaker 2: Maybe by Thursday you're looking at that, you'll have more. 338 00:18:08,964 --> 00:18:11,844 Speaker 2: But yeah, Maerica books, very skeptical of foreign intervention in 339 00:18:11,884 --> 00:18:14,644 Speaker 2: general in the Middle East in particular, has grown more 340 00:18:14,644 --> 00:18:17,524 Speaker 2: skeptical of Israel to the extent that we are are. 341 00:18:18,764 --> 00:18:22,724 Speaker 2: You know, I don't think it's a helpful factor necessarily. So, 342 00:18:22,964 --> 00:18:25,444 Speaker 2: you know, Trump, it's not a it's not a move. 343 00:18:25,524 --> 00:18:28,404 Speaker 2: It may be a cynical move to you know, Pollymark 344 00:18:28,444 --> 00:18:30,084 Speaker 2: has a ten percent chance that he wins a Nobel 345 00:18:30,084 --> 00:18:33,044 Speaker 2: Peace Prize or something. Right, But it's like, I don't 346 00:18:33,084 --> 00:18:36,084 Speaker 2: think it's a cynical Bush era move of Oh my 347 00:18:36,204 --> 00:18:39,244 Speaker 2: proval writing is falling, let's bomb somewhere, right. I don't 348 00:18:39,244 --> 00:18:43,484 Speaker 2: think that quote unquote trick works very well anymore. People 349 00:18:43,524 --> 00:18:47,484 Speaker 2: are very wary before and wars. Often what happens historically 350 00:18:47,604 --> 00:18:50,124 Speaker 2: is that you get an approval rating bump and then 351 00:18:50,204 --> 00:18:52,564 Speaker 2: things turn into a quagmire and then the president becomes 352 00:18:52,604 --> 00:18:55,764 Speaker 2: deeply unpopular. Here Trump, I don't way, whether it's a 353 00:18:55,764 --> 00:18:57,684 Speaker 2: decline or it's steady, does not appear to be a 354 00:18:57,684 --> 00:19:00,964 Speaker 2: bump coming at least from this right, So that historical 355 00:19:01,084 --> 00:19:05,964 Speaker 2: reward not being there I think might affect your your 356 00:19:05,964 --> 00:19:08,404 Speaker 2: priors too. That I don't know. I mean, there are 357 00:19:08,444 --> 00:19:11,124 Speaker 2: lots of cynical reasons to do this, I guess. But like, 358 00:19:11,564 --> 00:19:15,724 Speaker 2: but having lived through Iraq in Afghanistan, you know, and Trump, 359 00:19:15,764 --> 00:19:20,404 Speaker 2: I think again has good instincts for why the previous 360 00:19:20,444 --> 00:19:23,444 Speaker 2: Republicans became unpopular. I don't think he's doing this as 361 00:19:23,484 --> 00:19:26,684 Speaker 2: a way to like boose his popularity. And he's enough 362 00:19:26,724 --> 00:19:30,964 Speaker 2: other ways to have little cheap tricks to like to 363 00:19:31,044 --> 00:19:33,244 Speaker 2: do that. And like, you know, I'm not sure particularly 364 00:19:33,284 --> 00:19:36,564 Speaker 2: cares about foreign policy. Right he said recently, oh, there 365 00:19:36,564 --> 00:19:39,484 Speaker 2: are no permanent enemies. Was in the context of China 366 00:19:39,844 --> 00:19:43,964 Speaker 2: or Russia or whatever else, Right, But like he's transactional, 367 00:19:44,484 --> 00:19:51,524 Speaker 2: he's a deal maker, and maybe in some ways I 368 00:19:51,564 --> 00:19:56,524 Speaker 2: prefer that to the grandiosity of Bush era foreign policy. 369 00:19:56,644 --> 00:19:58,404 Speaker 2: I'm I'm I'm not sure. 370 00:19:59,404 --> 00:20:01,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it's a tough one. I don't think 371 00:20:01,844 --> 00:20:03,924 Speaker 1: I can go as far as to say I prefer 372 00:20:03,964 --> 00:20:04,804 Speaker 1: those because. 373 00:20:04,564 --> 00:20:09,044 Speaker 2: We just have you know, it's not I mean, yeah, it's. 374 00:20:08,844 --> 00:20:11,964 Speaker 1: Not a particular high bar. But it's just in the 375 00:20:12,004 --> 00:20:14,764 Speaker 1: sense that I think that there's a kind of Trump's 376 00:20:14,844 --> 00:20:18,484 Speaker 1: vision and then there's kind of the reality. Right. He 377 00:20:18,524 --> 00:20:21,124 Speaker 1: sees himself as, oh, I can be this peacemaker, but 378 00:20:21,684 --> 00:20:24,444 Speaker 1: the reality of it is that he might do things 379 00:20:24,484 --> 00:20:28,444 Speaker 1: that have unforeseen or they could have been foreseen by 380 00:20:28,484 --> 00:20:32,044 Speaker 1: good advisors, but unforeseen by him, long term consequences that 381 00:20:32,084 --> 00:20:36,484 Speaker 1: really fuck the world over. So it's kind of it's 382 00:20:36,564 --> 00:20:39,724 Speaker 1: kind of one of these one of these situations where, yes, 383 00:20:39,764 --> 00:20:42,324 Speaker 1: he doesn't want to entangle us. However, and I will 384 00:20:42,364 --> 00:20:44,764 Speaker 1: also say, in terms of his approval ratings, we've just 385 00:20:44,804 --> 00:20:48,524 Speaker 1: seen historically over and over and over that the Trump coalition, 386 00:20:48,724 --> 00:20:52,324 Speaker 1: kind of the MAGA coalition, is able to stomach complete 387 00:20:52,564 --> 00:20:55,484 Speaker 1: changes of policy when they come from Trump right, Like 388 00:20:55,524 --> 00:20:58,364 Speaker 1: he's just so good at persuading his base that what 389 00:20:58,444 --> 00:21:00,764 Speaker 1: he's doing is the right thing. So I would not 390 00:21:00,804 --> 00:21:03,164 Speaker 1: be at all surprised that if we do end up 391 00:21:03,244 --> 00:21:05,764 Speaker 1: kind of becoming more entangled in the Middle East, that 392 00:21:05,844 --> 00:21:08,044 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the same people who were saying 393 00:21:08,044 --> 00:21:10,844 Speaker 1: no foreign entanglements will be like, yeah, America first, like 394 00:21:10,924 --> 00:21:13,604 Speaker 1: we're we're gonna show them what's happening. And we were 395 00:21:13,644 --> 00:21:16,524 Speaker 1: for this all along. So I can definitely I don't 396 00:21:16,524 --> 00:21:19,604 Speaker 1: see that this is going to actually do lasting damage 397 00:21:19,644 --> 00:21:22,044 Speaker 1: to him, because he has shown himself to be just 398 00:21:22,284 --> 00:21:26,444 Speaker 1: phenomenally good at being able to turn any sentiment in 399 00:21:26,524 --> 00:21:29,924 Speaker 1: his favor that's his superpower, right, Like, he is so 400 00:21:29,964 --> 00:21:32,524 Speaker 1: good at convincing his base that whatever he decided to 401 00:21:32,564 --> 00:21:35,124 Speaker 1: do was the right thing, even if it was the 402 00:21:35,124 --> 00:21:37,084 Speaker 1: total opposite of what he had campaigned on. 403 00:21:39,124 --> 00:21:56,324 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. Trump's other advantage, 404 00:21:56,564 --> 00:21:59,324 Speaker 2: I think your relative to Biden is that, like, he 405 00:21:59,444 --> 00:22:02,284 Speaker 2: is seen, I think as being a little bit unpredictable, 406 00:22:02,324 --> 00:22:04,244 Speaker 2: and that probably helps. I don't know if we want 407 00:22:04,244 --> 00:22:06,204 Speaker 2: to go too far in the game theory, but like, 408 00:22:06,204 --> 00:22:08,044 Speaker 2: but like, no, we've talked about that before. 409 00:22:08,164 --> 00:22:11,884 Speaker 1: I mean the kind of the irrational rationality, right, the 410 00:22:11,924 --> 00:22:16,524 Speaker 1: irrational actor, the kind of the Thomas Shelling model of 411 00:22:16,564 --> 00:22:20,684 Speaker 1: you know your famous chicken problem where you have two 412 00:22:20,804 --> 00:22:24,484 Speaker 1: cars going towards each other right head on collision course 413 00:22:24,804 --> 00:22:28,244 Speaker 1: and one of the drivers pulls out the steering wheel 414 00:22:28,244 --> 00:22:31,924 Speaker 1: and throws it out the window, signaling I can't swerve right, 415 00:22:32,124 --> 00:22:34,324 Speaker 1: so I'm going to win this, And that's kind of 416 00:22:34,324 --> 00:22:37,444 Speaker 1: the rational irrationality. Of course, the problem comes in what 417 00:22:37,524 --> 00:22:39,404 Speaker 1: happens if both of them pull out their steering wheel 418 00:22:39,444 --> 00:22:43,084 Speaker 1: at the same time. Then you're kind of screwed. What 419 00:22:43,204 --> 00:22:45,724 Speaker 1: happens if one person doesn't actually see you throwing the 420 00:22:45,764 --> 00:22:49,164 Speaker 1: steering wheel out the window, which is possible even though 421 00:22:49,204 --> 00:22:52,004 Speaker 1: you try to be blatant about it. You know, maybe 422 00:22:52,004 --> 00:22:54,164 Speaker 1: they were looking away at that moment. Maybe they were 423 00:22:54,164 --> 00:22:56,724 Speaker 1: so focused on your car that they didn't see that. 424 00:22:57,004 --> 00:22:59,764 Speaker 1: So there are issues with that scenario. But yes, there 425 00:22:59,844 --> 00:23:03,524 Speaker 1: is kind of the madman theory that if I'm unpredictable, 426 00:23:03,564 --> 00:23:06,564 Speaker 1: if I'm the one who is capable of ripping out 427 00:23:06,564 --> 00:23:08,684 Speaker 1: my steering wheel, and people know that, then they're going 428 00:23:08,724 --> 00:23:10,364 Speaker 1: to tread much more carefully around me. 429 00:23:11,084 --> 00:23:12,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, or at least one would, or at least one 430 00:23:12,524 --> 00:23:12,924 Speaker 2: would hope. 431 00:23:12,924 --> 00:23:13,004 Speaker 1: So. 432 00:23:13,204 --> 00:23:16,844 Speaker 2: Right to the point earlier about like, Iran's a populist 433 00:23:16,884 --> 00:23:22,684 Speaker 2: country at times, it has flirted with becoming a developing, 434 00:23:23,204 --> 00:23:27,324 Speaker 2: wealthier country before the revolution in I guess seventy nine 435 00:23:27,404 --> 00:23:31,004 Speaker 2: and then and then more recently it's GDP had been increasing, right, 436 00:23:31,564 --> 00:23:33,604 Speaker 2: So it's it's not a I don't think it'd classified 437 00:23:33,644 --> 00:23:35,884 Speaker 2: as like a failed state that kind of has nothing 438 00:23:37,284 --> 00:23:42,084 Speaker 2: to lose, right, And it's always hard to gauge public 439 00:23:42,124 --> 00:23:46,244 Speaker 2: sentiment in authoritarian countries. I don't know, you know, I 440 00:23:46,244 --> 00:23:49,764 Speaker 2: think the conventional wisdom is that, like, the regime is 441 00:23:49,764 --> 00:23:53,804 Speaker 2: not especially popular in Iran. It's a sophisticated country with 442 00:23:53,844 --> 00:23:56,084 Speaker 2: a lot of history, and people may have ambiguous feelings 443 00:23:56,044 --> 00:23:58,964 Speaker 2: about about its current status, right, a lot of different 444 00:23:58,964 --> 00:24:03,084 Speaker 2: ethnic groups also within Iran, again a big, complex country, right, 445 00:24:03,124 --> 00:24:06,964 Speaker 2: and so like, look, all of this seems better to 446 00:24:07,004 --> 00:24:10,604 Speaker 2: me than like trying and failiate regime change in Iraq. Right, 447 00:24:10,644 --> 00:24:15,044 Speaker 2: But it's also higher stakes in some ways, involving you know, 448 00:24:15,204 --> 00:24:18,804 Speaker 2: one unofficial nuclear power will two the United States and Israel, right, 449 00:24:19,324 --> 00:24:25,084 Speaker 2: one perhaps aspiring nuclear power right, a state that where 450 00:24:25,084 --> 00:24:28,164 Speaker 2: a lot of oil and commerce turns on and so yeah, 451 00:24:28,204 --> 00:24:30,884 Speaker 2: I'm sorry to use a cliched metaphor, it is risky business, right. 452 00:24:31,724 --> 00:24:33,324 Speaker 2: You know. One of the things you learn in poker 453 00:24:33,444 --> 00:24:38,484 Speaker 2: is that, like, the biggest confrontations often arise from cases 454 00:24:38,564 --> 00:24:44,204 Speaker 2: where it becomes one decision escalates after another, and in 455 00:24:44,244 --> 00:24:47,204 Speaker 2: any isolated circumstance, it may be correct to take the 456 00:24:47,324 --> 00:24:52,044 Speaker 2: escalatory move. However, the a cumult of effective that can 457 00:24:52,084 --> 00:24:56,764 Speaker 2: be quite profoundly high stakes and profoundly negative in some cases. 458 00:24:57,764 --> 00:25:03,404 Speaker 1: Yeah, effects are not just what you see in the moment, right, 459 00:25:03,484 --> 00:25:06,684 Speaker 1: they can be exponential, And so you have kind of 460 00:25:06,764 --> 00:25:11,044 Speaker 1: the immediate stakes and it doesn't seem p regularly like oh, 461 00:25:11,164 --> 00:25:13,844 Speaker 1: you know, this is just a tiny, tiny blip, but 462 00:25:13,884 --> 00:25:16,844 Speaker 1: then it can really spiral out of control. I mean, 463 00:25:16,964 --> 00:25:19,564 Speaker 1: I know people it's to stay in the poker realm 464 00:25:19,764 --> 00:25:22,884 Speaker 1: who end up going bust in level one. I know 465 00:25:22,964 --> 00:25:25,004 Speaker 1: multiple people on level one of the main event of 466 00:25:25,044 --> 00:25:27,484 Speaker 1: the World Series, which Nate and I will both be 467 00:25:27,524 --> 00:25:30,604 Speaker 1: playing in just over a week. But in level one 468 00:25:30,644 --> 00:25:33,324 Speaker 1: of the main event, you have two hour long levels 469 00:25:33,364 --> 00:25:35,204 Speaker 1: and I don't remember how many big lines you start with, 470 00:25:35,284 --> 00:25:38,804 Speaker 1: but an insane amount, right, just totally crazy. And then 471 00:25:38,804 --> 00:25:41,204 Speaker 1: people just lose their minds and they end up in 472 00:25:41,244 --> 00:25:44,004 Speaker 1: these situations where they really do not need to bust, 473 00:25:44,244 --> 00:25:46,524 Speaker 1: but they do anyway, and they're like, oh, I couldn't 474 00:25:46,564 --> 00:25:48,284 Speaker 1: avoid it, And I was like, no, you could have 475 00:25:48,364 --> 00:25:51,524 Speaker 1: avoided it, right, Like, let's look at all of the mistakes, 476 00:25:51,604 --> 00:25:53,764 Speaker 1: all of the decision errors that led you to this 477 00:25:53,924 --> 00:25:57,124 Speaker 1: point where you felt like you couldn't avoid it, right, 478 00:25:57,524 --> 00:26:00,564 Speaker 1: there are so many mistakes that keep compounding and compounding, 479 00:26:00,564 --> 00:26:02,324 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you're out of this tournament 480 00:26:02,684 --> 00:26:05,284 Speaker 1: where like you didn't need to be in that situation 481 00:26:05,404 --> 00:26:05,764 Speaker 1: at all. 482 00:26:06,004 --> 00:26:08,284 Speaker 2: Yeah, sometimes there can kind of be so what happens 483 00:26:08,284 --> 00:26:10,884 Speaker 2: a lot in these big world series events where there 484 00:26:10,884 --> 00:26:13,804 Speaker 2: are a lot of amateur recreational players, right, is like, 485 00:26:15,084 --> 00:26:19,404 Speaker 2: sometimes you'll have implicit agreement between the better players at 486 00:26:19,444 --> 00:26:22,244 Speaker 2: the table that we don't want to go to war 487 00:26:22,324 --> 00:26:25,084 Speaker 2: with one another. We both have an incentive to as 488 00:26:25,124 --> 00:26:28,404 Speaker 2: the superpowers. It's table to like preserve our chip stacks 489 00:26:28,444 --> 00:26:32,244 Speaker 2: and make easy profit from the fish as they're called. However, 490 00:26:33,324 --> 00:26:35,604 Speaker 2: when there's a lack of trust and there's no intrinsic 491 00:26:35,684 --> 00:26:39,004 Speaker 2: reason to trust opponents in poker, that regime can break 492 00:26:39,044 --> 00:26:41,604 Speaker 2: down right where you feel like I'm being taking advantage 493 00:26:41,604 --> 00:26:45,004 Speaker 2: of now, right, But the point is that, like you know, 494 00:26:45,124 --> 00:26:50,204 Speaker 2: when you have better global norms, there is more potential 495 00:26:50,284 --> 00:26:51,764 Speaker 2: for de escalation. And if you kind of look at 496 00:26:51,804 --> 00:26:53,804 Speaker 2: it as like an exponential right, So if you look 497 00:26:53,804 --> 00:26:57,964 Speaker 2: at like, how does nuclear war start when there's not 498 00:26:58,884 --> 00:27:01,644 Speaker 2: at the moment where you can argue there's a NATO 499 00:27:01,764 --> 00:27:05,244 Speaker 2: versus Russia proxy conflict obviously in Ukraine. Right at the moment, 500 00:27:05,284 --> 00:27:09,804 Speaker 2: there's not a hot war between nuclear superpowers, right, So 501 00:27:10,244 --> 00:27:11,924 Speaker 2: you know, has nuclear war starting, it happens through a 502 00:27:11,964 --> 00:27:16,164 Speaker 2: series of accidents probably, right, you know, we do, I 503 00:27:16,164 --> 00:27:20,444 Speaker 2: think have enough precedent in the eighty whatever one years 504 00:27:20,524 --> 00:27:23,604 Speaker 2: since Hiroshima Nagasaki to say that, like, probably you don't 505 00:27:24,044 --> 00:27:28,444 Speaker 2: have nuclear wars start easily or nuclear accidents start easily, 506 00:27:28,524 --> 00:27:32,644 Speaker 2: but in the fog of war, in these escalatory scenarios, right, 507 00:27:32,684 --> 00:27:35,964 Speaker 2: I mean, it is a little frightening in the sense of, like, Okay, well, 508 00:27:36,004 --> 00:27:37,764 Speaker 2: we actually have to take this rather dramatic action that 509 00:27:37,764 --> 00:27:41,204 Speaker 2: has some particular consequence because it's so bad preemptively if Iran, 510 00:27:41,324 --> 00:27:43,924 Speaker 2: you know, I mean, what if our man already has 511 00:27:45,484 --> 00:27:48,284 Speaker 2: nuclear weapons, right, and or you know, or some failed 512 00:27:48,324 --> 00:27:50,524 Speaker 2: dirty bombers. You know, there's a lot we don't know 513 00:27:50,684 --> 00:27:53,364 Speaker 2: and like and like, when you have less cooperation around 514 00:27:53,364 --> 00:27:56,484 Speaker 2: the world, then every step is more likely to escalate. Right, Like, 515 00:27:56,564 --> 00:27:59,404 Speaker 2: let's say you need you know, three things that have 516 00:27:59,444 --> 00:28:01,844 Speaker 2: a ten percent probability of happening to happen in sequence 517 00:28:01,884 --> 00:28:05,964 Speaker 2: to have a nuclear detonation somewhere. Right, that's a one 518 00:28:06,244 --> 00:28:09,564 Speaker 2: in one thousand chants. What if the chances go up 519 00:28:09,564 --> 00:28:12,524 Speaker 2: just because there's less cooperation in the world to fifteen 520 00:28:12,564 --> 00:28:17,204 Speaker 2: percent times three, Right, that's actually six times higher if 521 00:28:17,204 --> 00:28:19,204 Speaker 2: you do the math, or four times higher if you 522 00:28:19,244 --> 00:28:21,124 Speaker 2: do the math. I'm I'm trying to get my spreadsheet 523 00:28:21,164 --> 00:28:24,804 Speaker 2: out right, because the exponential increase of all these steps 524 00:28:24,844 --> 00:28:26,164 Speaker 2: you have to pass when things are a little bit 525 00:28:26,244 --> 00:28:29,444 Speaker 2: less cooperative, is more is quite a bit more dangerous 526 00:28:29,444 --> 00:28:30,484 Speaker 2: when they combine together. 527 00:28:31,444 --> 00:28:33,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a really really important point that 528 00:28:33,924 --> 00:28:36,444 Speaker 1: we are actually in a global moment where I do 529 00:28:36,524 --> 00:28:39,124 Speaker 1: think that kind of global norms have been eroding for 530 00:28:39,164 --> 00:28:41,564 Speaker 1: a while and kind of we are in a less 531 00:28:41,564 --> 00:28:45,164 Speaker 1: cooperative moment than we were in even during the Cold War, 532 00:28:45,444 --> 00:28:47,644 Speaker 1: right like that That seems crazy to say, but I 533 00:28:47,684 --> 00:28:51,604 Speaker 1: think that norms have shifted in the last decade, in 534 00:28:51,644 --> 00:28:55,164 Speaker 1: the last two decades, to a point where these sorts 535 00:28:55,164 --> 00:28:58,684 Speaker 1: of percentage just probably have gone up, and you know, 536 00:28:58,764 --> 00:29:02,444 Speaker 1: and shit happens. Like we've I think we've talked on 537 00:29:02,484 --> 00:29:05,764 Speaker 1: the show before, Nate, correct me if we haven't about 538 00:29:05,804 --> 00:29:11,044 Speaker 1: Stanislav Petrov, who was a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet 539 00:29:11,084 --> 00:29:15,204 Speaker 1: Air Force and he basically prevented World War three back 540 00:29:15,244 --> 00:29:18,884 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty three unilaterally, back when there was a 541 00:29:18,924 --> 00:29:23,044 Speaker 1: false alarm basically right, the Soviet nuclear system malfunctioned and 542 00:29:23,284 --> 00:29:27,244 Speaker 1: it looked like the United States had launched a nuclear missile, 543 00:29:27,764 --> 00:29:30,884 Speaker 1: and he just made he made the decision that this 544 00:29:31,044 --> 00:29:33,324 Speaker 1: was a false alarm and that they were not going 545 00:29:33,364 --> 00:29:37,444 Speaker 1: to counterstrike, and that decision was absolutely pivotal. Now, imagine 546 00:29:37,484 --> 00:29:41,364 Speaker 1: if it wasn't him. Imagine if we've outsourced to AI, right, 547 00:29:41,444 --> 00:29:45,164 Speaker 1: Imagine so many different things that could have happened, where 548 00:29:45,644 --> 00:29:48,004 Speaker 1: instead of this being something that we only that we 549 00:29:48,164 --> 00:29:51,044 Speaker 1: now know happened back then, no one knew right that 550 00:29:51,084 --> 00:29:55,084 Speaker 1: we almost had a nuclear confrontation. Like imagine if those 551 00:29:55,084 --> 00:29:57,524 Speaker 1: percentages shift a little bit of you know, different person 552 00:29:57,644 --> 00:30:02,324 Speaker 1: like those types of situations, if the risk of them 553 00:30:02,404 --> 00:30:05,444 Speaker 1: goes up even a tiny tiny bit, then it's a 554 00:30:05,484 --> 00:30:08,684 Speaker 1: really scary proposition. Even back in nineteen eighty three, it 555 00:30:08,724 --> 00:30:11,164 Speaker 1: was terrifying, And I don't even want to know what 556 00:30:11,204 --> 00:30:13,524 Speaker 1: would have happened had someone else had have been at 557 00:30:13,564 --> 00:30:17,284 Speaker 1: the helm and decided not decided that this was the 558 00:30:17,364 --> 00:30:20,964 Speaker 1: right thing to do. So that's why these these decisions 559 00:30:21,004 --> 00:30:23,684 Speaker 1: are good to analyze in retrospect, because then we know 560 00:30:23,724 --> 00:30:25,964 Speaker 1: the kinds of things that could have that were avoided 561 00:30:26,004 --> 00:30:30,284 Speaker 1: that were unknown at the time. But yeah, it's someone 562 00:30:30,324 --> 00:30:34,444 Speaker 1: disobeyed orders, right, Somebody went against the military protocol and 563 00:30:34,524 --> 00:30:38,724 Speaker 1: decided not to launch a counterattack, and that prevented the 564 00:30:38,844 --> 00:30:41,884 Speaker 1: Soviets from actually launching a nuclear missile when the US 565 00:30:41,924 --> 00:30:44,524 Speaker 1: did not. So these sorts of things are really important, 566 00:30:44,724 --> 00:30:47,044 Speaker 1: and we've talked you know, you've you've mentioned it, I've 567 00:30:47,044 --> 00:30:52,044 Speaker 1: mentioned it. Exponential effects are really important, and human brains 568 00:30:52,044 --> 00:30:55,284 Speaker 1: don't usually think about kind of exponential growth. That's very 569 00:30:55,284 --> 00:30:58,804 Speaker 1: difficult to think about. But you know, tiny shifts can 570 00:30:58,844 --> 00:31:01,764 Speaker 1: actually have outsized effects because exponential growth is a thing. 571 00:31:02,484 --> 00:31:08,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's both exponential and existential potentially, right, you 572 00:31:08,804 --> 00:31:10,604 Speaker 2: can to meet this and antics ever where their climate 573 00:31:10,684 --> 00:31:14,084 Speaker 2: change is quote an existential threat, right, it's a bit 574 00:31:14,124 --> 00:31:18,324 Speaker 2: more linear generally speaking, where it's like not like well, 575 00:31:18,404 --> 00:31:20,164 Speaker 2: I mean there are like feedback loops and this gets 576 00:31:20,164 --> 00:31:22,524 Speaker 2: a little bit, but like it's not like, you know, 577 00:31:22,604 --> 00:31:27,444 Speaker 2: there is some chance that next week a situation grows 578 00:31:27,484 --> 00:31:32,284 Speaker 2: out of control and there's a massive nuclear attack somewhere. Right, 579 00:31:32,284 --> 00:31:36,004 Speaker 2: There's no chance that, like we all burn despite the 580 00:31:36,044 --> 00:31:37,684 Speaker 2: heat wave on the East Coast. There's no chance that 581 00:31:37,764 --> 00:31:40,884 Speaker 2: like the world ends because of climate change tomorrow. It's 582 00:31:40,964 --> 00:31:45,484 Speaker 2: longer term and nuclear war is not is not like that, right, Look, 583 00:31:45,484 --> 00:31:51,244 Speaker 2: a lot of Americans lived in fear for many years 584 00:31:51,324 --> 00:31:54,084 Speaker 2: of nuclear war, right, I can remember just faintly from 585 00:31:54,124 --> 00:31:56,604 Speaker 2: growing up in forty seven, like the presence of like 586 00:31:56,684 --> 00:32:01,324 Speaker 2: fallout shelters by the time I was in school, they're 587 00:32:01,364 --> 00:32:04,044 Speaker 2: no longer like fallout drills, but you know, some number 588 00:32:04,084 --> 00:32:06,244 Speaker 2: of years earlier there might have been. Right. Trump is 589 00:32:06,244 --> 00:32:09,604 Speaker 2: obviously old enough to remember the Cold War, you know, 590 00:32:09,724 --> 00:32:11,404 Speaker 2: sooner or later we're gonna have a younger generation of 591 00:32:11,484 --> 00:32:14,364 Speaker 2: leaders that are not and that didn't live with nuclear 592 00:32:14,484 --> 00:32:18,164 Speaker 2: risk as this like persistent existential threat and the way 593 00:32:18,164 --> 00:32:20,724 Speaker 2: that people feel about climate change or increasingly even like 594 00:32:20,764 --> 00:32:21,524 Speaker 2: AI today. 595 00:32:22,164 --> 00:32:25,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that that's another very important point. 596 00:32:26,004 --> 00:32:28,564 Speaker 1: So we have the compounding effects of changing social norms, 597 00:32:28,604 --> 00:32:32,964 Speaker 1: changing international norms, less cooperation, and the loss of historical memory, 598 00:32:33,284 --> 00:32:39,004 Speaker 1: right of people who actually have that visceral knowledge of 599 00:32:39,324 --> 00:32:41,524 Speaker 1: what these things felt like, which we talk about a 600 00:32:41,564 --> 00:32:44,324 Speaker 1: lot on the show. This is like direct risky business. Right. 601 00:32:44,364 --> 00:32:47,004 Speaker 1: The way that we understand risk the best is by 602 00:32:47,124 --> 00:32:51,404 Speaker 1: actually experiencing, and that's why people understand risks so poorly. 603 00:32:51,764 --> 00:32:54,484 Speaker 1: But the kind of the historical memory, the people who 604 00:32:54,484 --> 00:32:57,644 Speaker 1: lived through this, who understand just how important this is, 605 00:32:57,764 --> 00:33:00,684 Speaker 1: just how scary it is, that's going away, and the 606 00:33:01,004 --> 00:33:03,324 Speaker 1: people who've lived through the world war is like, that's 607 00:33:03,324 --> 00:33:08,084 Speaker 1: going away. All sorts of these major moments in memory 608 00:33:08,324 --> 00:33:12,724 Speaker 1: are going away, and that has scary implications for the 609 00:33:12,764 --> 00:33:16,004 Speaker 1: next generation for us as well. I'm just saying for 610 00:33:16,044 --> 00:33:18,964 Speaker 1: the next generation of leaders. That has scary implications for 611 00:33:19,044 --> 00:33:19,444 Speaker 1: the world. 612 00:33:19,644 --> 00:33:24,004 Speaker 2: So so, yeah, we're out here playing poker. Well, I 613 00:33:24,044 --> 00:33:25,524 Speaker 2: don't think the world's on the verge of a World 614 00:33:25,524 --> 00:33:28,804 Speaker 2: War three. That's kind of like an internet meme, but 615 00:33:28,924 --> 00:33:32,204 Speaker 2: clearly this is, you know, one of the most conspecial 616 00:33:32,244 --> 00:33:33,724 Speaker 2: things happening in the world right now. 617 00:33:34,444 --> 00:33:36,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, Nate, I think I think that's a good way 618 00:33:36,644 --> 00:33:39,644 Speaker 1: of putting it. So with that, let's take a quick 619 00:33:39,644 --> 00:33:42,644 Speaker 1: break and let's lighten it up a little bit and 620 00:33:42,924 --> 00:34:02,844 Speaker 1: talk a little poker. Last week on the show, we 621 00:34:03,004 --> 00:34:05,844 Speaker 1: promised you that if we were not going to give 622 00:34:05,844 --> 00:34:08,724 Speaker 1: you a poker update, that meant that things were not 623 00:34:08,884 --> 00:34:13,804 Speaker 1: going well. So no news, bad news, and for me, 624 00:34:14,004 --> 00:34:16,724 Speaker 1: for me, that's actually mostly the case. I had one 625 00:34:16,844 --> 00:34:19,884 Speaker 1: or two cashes in online bracelet events. I don't remember 626 00:34:20,164 --> 00:34:21,884 Speaker 1: it was one or two because I don't quite remember 627 00:34:21,924 --> 00:34:25,884 Speaker 1: the timing, But my live events have not gone well, Nate. 628 00:34:25,964 --> 00:34:27,684 Speaker 1: For you, they've gone slightly better. 629 00:34:27,724 --> 00:34:30,244 Speaker 2: A little better I'm going to have four cashes and 630 00:34:30,284 --> 00:34:32,644 Speaker 2: online events, which was at the win not the World Series. 631 00:34:32,724 --> 00:34:35,764 Speaker 2: One online cash I succumbed and played one online. I 632 00:34:35,804 --> 00:34:39,764 Speaker 2: don't really love the online stuff as much. But like 633 00:34:39,804 --> 00:34:41,884 Speaker 2: I was talked about last week, the way to actually 634 00:34:42,084 --> 00:34:43,684 Speaker 2: end the trip with more than you lose is making 635 00:34:43,724 --> 00:34:45,884 Speaker 2: a very deep run top two percent, or to cash 636 00:34:46,004 --> 00:34:49,044 Speaker 2: in your higher buying events. And I've done neither. Plenty 637 00:34:49,044 --> 00:34:51,644 Speaker 2: of cashes in these smaller events that are medium deep, 638 00:34:51,684 --> 00:34:54,364 Speaker 2: but not deep enough to to really make good money, 639 00:34:54,364 --> 00:34:57,004 Speaker 2: and so we're still searching for that. You know, that 640 00:34:57,004 --> 00:35:00,324 Speaker 2: big win. I think it feels better to know it's 641 00:35:00,324 --> 00:35:01,884 Speaker 2: better or worse. I've played a lot of poker, right, 642 00:35:01,884 --> 00:35:04,004 Speaker 2: I've been making it to the end of nights and 643 00:35:04,004 --> 00:35:05,404 Speaker 2: stuff like that. I don't know if it's better or 644 00:35:05,484 --> 00:35:08,404 Speaker 2: worse then to maybe you have one big cash and 645 00:35:08,404 --> 00:35:11,284 Speaker 2: then a bunch of bus early. Then you have more 646 00:35:11,284 --> 00:35:13,244 Speaker 2: dinners with friends and things like that. But it's been 647 00:35:13,724 --> 00:35:17,524 Speaker 2: a grindy kind of World series. We've played a lot. 648 00:35:17,884 --> 00:35:21,204 Speaker 2: Get our name on the topeboard sometimes but but nothing 649 00:35:21,884 --> 00:35:25,644 Speaker 2: no lasting memories yet, and then about halfway through. That's 650 00:35:25,644 --> 00:35:26,924 Speaker 2: how it goes often. 651 00:35:26,644 --> 00:35:29,564 Speaker 1: Though, but it is how it goes often, and Nate, 652 00:35:29,884 --> 00:35:32,084 Speaker 1: you know, we still have a number of weeks left, 653 00:35:32,124 --> 00:35:34,444 Speaker 1: so we're just saving up our run good for the 654 00:35:34,484 --> 00:35:36,724 Speaker 1: main event and other events. And Nate, you and I 655 00:35:36,804 --> 00:35:39,524 Speaker 1: are going to tag team together, so there's there's a 656 00:35:39,724 --> 00:35:43,084 Speaker 1: there's a fun event called the tag Team where you 657 00:35:43,124 --> 00:35:45,884 Speaker 1: get to play with a partner and you tag in 658 00:35:45,964 --> 00:35:49,284 Speaker 1: and out, and so it would be really fun. You know, 659 00:35:49,364 --> 00:35:51,444 Speaker 1: we are taping this again on Tuesday, which is when 660 00:35:51,444 --> 00:35:54,844 Speaker 1: Tag Team starts, So by Thursday you'll know if we're 661 00:35:54,884 --> 00:35:58,084 Speaker 1: still in or not. We don't know right now, but 662 00:35:58,524 --> 00:36:01,084 Speaker 1: let's let's be optimistic, Nate and say that we're still 663 00:36:01,084 --> 00:36:03,884 Speaker 1: on Thursday, which means we made the final table. That 664 00:36:03,884 --> 00:36:04,644 Speaker 1: would be pretty. 665 00:36:04,444 --> 00:36:07,164 Speaker 2: Cool'd be amazing, That would be great for the fucking show. 666 00:36:07,364 --> 00:36:10,284 Speaker 1: So so there are some fun things there been, you know, 667 00:36:10,444 --> 00:36:13,444 Speaker 1: every World Series, and we've talked about some of the 668 00:36:13,484 --> 00:36:17,164 Speaker 1: controversies so far. There have been more controversies. Not going 669 00:36:17,204 --> 00:36:19,124 Speaker 1: to talk through all of them, but there have been 670 00:36:19,164 --> 00:36:23,404 Speaker 1: more accusations of both angle shooting, which, as we've talked about, 671 00:36:23,844 --> 00:36:27,124 Speaker 1: is when you basically bend the rules but don't break 672 00:36:27,164 --> 00:36:30,204 Speaker 1: them right where you go to the limit of what's 673 00:36:30,324 --> 00:36:35,044 Speaker 1: technically allowed, but don't cross the line. And so there 674 00:36:35,084 --> 00:36:38,084 Speaker 1: have been accusations against multiple players of angle shooting. And 675 00:36:38,244 --> 00:36:42,124 Speaker 1: there was accusations of collusion at the final table of 676 00:36:42,364 --> 00:36:46,484 Speaker 1: the fifty KPLO, which is a which is a huge event, 677 00:36:46,684 --> 00:36:49,604 Speaker 1: some chip dumping might have happened, And Nate, you know, 678 00:36:49,684 --> 00:36:52,404 Speaker 1: this is something that I actually was thinking about as 679 00:36:52,484 --> 00:36:56,284 Speaker 1: you were talking about, you know, soft collusion with other 680 00:36:56,284 --> 00:36:58,404 Speaker 1: players at the table, where you think, oh, you know, 681 00:36:58,404 --> 00:37:00,804 Speaker 1: we're the better players, we're gonna we're going to stay 682 00:37:00,804 --> 00:37:03,804 Speaker 1: out of each other's way. But there's also kind of 683 00:37:04,244 --> 00:37:07,244 Speaker 1: there's also this phenomenon which is not angle shooting. It 684 00:37:07,364 --> 00:37:11,444 Speaker 1: actually is illegal, but it's incredibly difficult to police. Where 685 00:37:11,604 --> 00:37:13,684 Speaker 1: say you you and I and ate, Like, I'm not 686 00:37:13,724 --> 00:37:16,924 Speaker 1: saying we would ever do this, but like, let's imagine 687 00:37:16,924 --> 00:37:19,164 Speaker 1: that we're in an event together at the same table. 688 00:37:19,284 --> 00:37:21,644 Speaker 1: I have lots of chips, you don't have very many chips, 689 00:37:22,004 --> 00:37:25,164 Speaker 1: and we both decided that we really need you to cash, 690 00:37:25,204 --> 00:37:28,324 Speaker 1: and so I raise you go all in and doesn't 691 00:37:28,324 --> 00:37:30,364 Speaker 1: matter what hand I have, you know, I just fold 692 00:37:30,724 --> 00:37:33,564 Speaker 1: right so that you can take my chips. That's chip dumping. 693 00:37:34,044 --> 00:37:37,404 Speaker 1: That's incredibly bad. Don't ever do something like that. There's 694 00:37:37,444 --> 00:37:40,564 Speaker 1: a reason that there's a rule in poker where if 695 00:37:40,644 --> 00:37:42,484 Speaker 1: everyone is all in, you have to share your hand. 696 00:37:42,524 --> 00:37:45,244 Speaker 1: It's to prevent collusion. It's to prevent stuff like this. 697 00:37:45,764 --> 00:37:47,844 Speaker 1: But in situations like the one that happened at the 698 00:37:47,844 --> 00:37:51,564 Speaker 1: final table of the of the fifty KPLO, it was 699 00:37:51,764 --> 00:37:55,164 Speaker 1: impossible to tell what happened because the first person who 700 00:37:55,284 --> 00:37:57,644 Speaker 1: raised didn't scan their cards, and it was not an 701 00:37:57,684 --> 00:38:00,084 Speaker 1: all in situation where there was a call, there was 702 00:38:00,124 --> 00:38:01,484 Speaker 1: a raise, there was an all in, and there was 703 00:38:01,524 --> 00:38:05,524 Speaker 1: a fold, and so it's incredibly difficult to understand what 704 00:38:05,724 --> 00:38:08,524 Speaker 1: happened in situations like this. I don't know in that 705 00:38:08,564 --> 00:38:12,764 Speaker 1: particular situation. Other players have been accused of angle shooting 706 00:38:12,804 --> 00:38:15,764 Speaker 1: by we've talked about this before, by saying the wrong 707 00:38:15,844 --> 00:38:21,004 Speaker 1: raise size right with really strong hands, where they say, oh, 708 00:38:21,084 --> 00:38:22,604 Speaker 1: you know, I didn't mean to raise, or I didn't 709 00:38:22,604 --> 00:38:24,804 Speaker 1: mean to I meant to raise, not to call, and 710 00:38:25,204 --> 00:38:29,404 Speaker 1: they just pretend that they're confused, and maybe they really 711 00:38:29,444 --> 00:38:32,564 Speaker 1: are confused, maybe they aren't, And it's very difficult to 712 00:38:33,164 --> 00:38:36,524 Speaker 1: know what happened in situations like that. That's happened a 713 00:38:36,524 --> 00:38:39,604 Speaker 1: few times already at the World series, And you know, 714 00:38:39,804 --> 00:38:43,764 Speaker 1: I'm of mixed, so you know, I'm working on a 715 00:38:43,764 --> 00:38:46,444 Speaker 1: book about shooting. You know, I really care about angle shooting. 716 00:38:46,724 --> 00:38:49,404 Speaker 1: You know, I really care about keeping the game. You know, 717 00:38:49,484 --> 00:38:51,844 Speaker 1: at a high level, I do think that we need 718 00:38:51,884 --> 00:38:55,204 Speaker 1: to be careful of just starting to call everything angle shooting. Right. 719 00:38:55,964 --> 00:38:58,044 Speaker 1: People have become a little trigger happy. I think this 720 00:38:58,084 --> 00:39:02,884 Speaker 1: World series with their accusations just whenever anyone does something 721 00:39:02,884 --> 00:39:04,764 Speaker 1: that they don't like and takes their chips or like, oh, 722 00:39:04,764 --> 00:39:08,004 Speaker 1: you're angle shooting. Like, no, it's not always angle shooting, right, Like, 723 00:39:08,044 --> 00:39:10,844 Speaker 1: you need to be very very careful and reserve. That's 724 00:39:11,004 --> 00:39:15,204 Speaker 1: that terminology for moments that really are suspect, and I 725 00:39:15,204 --> 00:39:17,044 Speaker 1: think a lot of the moments people have called out 726 00:39:17,084 --> 00:39:20,684 Speaker 1: are not. They're just people really do get confused. 727 00:39:20,364 --> 00:39:22,284 Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of people. One of the things that 728 00:39:22,324 --> 00:39:25,804 Speaker 2: comes with like having more experience than poker is you 729 00:39:25,844 --> 00:39:29,404 Speaker 2: see more situations like this number one, and you're able 730 00:39:29,404 --> 00:39:32,724 Speaker 2: to play poker without all of your bandwidth being devoted 731 00:39:32,724 --> 00:39:34,844 Speaker 2: to what's the right play in this hand? Right, You're 732 00:39:34,884 --> 00:39:37,644 Speaker 2: able to take be more aware of the setting and 733 00:39:37,684 --> 00:39:40,444 Speaker 2: the situation and so and look for potential angle shoots 734 00:39:40,484 --> 00:39:45,204 Speaker 2: are weird shit, right. You know, sometimes if someone makes 735 00:39:45,204 --> 00:39:47,924 Speaker 2: a weird bet size, right, and I'll ask them for 736 00:39:48,084 --> 00:39:52,964 Speaker 2: clarification on that right to get information from my own self. 737 00:39:53,044 --> 00:39:54,724 Speaker 2: Or sometimes it's kind of like not an angle but 738 00:39:54,844 --> 00:39:58,364 Speaker 2: like speech play right where I'm trying to like confuse 739 00:39:58,444 --> 00:40:02,284 Speaker 2: or intimidate somebody, but like being having more awareness in 740 00:40:02,404 --> 00:40:06,924 Speaker 2: a poker game like the World Series where you have 741 00:40:06,964 --> 00:40:10,004 Speaker 2: a very wide range of players from the best in 742 00:40:10,044 --> 00:40:12,204 Speaker 2: the world to the worst players in the world kind 743 00:40:12,204 --> 00:40:14,204 Speaker 2: of almost literally, right, and you have a lot of 744 00:40:14,244 --> 00:40:17,924 Speaker 2: dealers who are making let's be honest, you are making mistakes, right, then, 745 00:40:17,964 --> 00:40:21,444 Speaker 2: like just being aware of a situation over the course, 746 00:40:21,484 --> 00:40:23,084 Speaker 2: if you play seven weeks of the World Series, it's 747 00:40:23,084 --> 00:40:26,684 Speaker 2: going to probably save you big mistakes two or three 748 00:40:26,724 --> 00:40:29,084 Speaker 2: times in seven weeks. That could be for a lot 749 00:40:29,084 --> 00:40:32,964 Speaker 2: of chips, right, Like that's a lot, right, So don't 750 00:40:32,964 --> 00:40:36,164 Speaker 2: be on your headphones, don't be on your phone in 751 00:40:36,244 --> 00:40:39,924 Speaker 2: higher stakes moments, or you're gonna risk things like like 752 00:40:40,044 --> 00:40:42,964 Speaker 2: stupid decisions, tilting yourself or also just being a good 753 00:40:43,004 --> 00:40:45,484 Speaker 2: poker citizen and like when other players are fucking up, 754 00:40:45,604 --> 00:40:47,324 Speaker 2: protecting his other players too, that you have, I think 755 00:40:47,484 --> 00:40:49,644 Speaker 2: is an obligation to do as a good poker citizen. 756 00:40:50,284 --> 00:40:50,924 Speaker 2: I think that's a. 757 00:40:50,884 --> 00:40:53,844 Speaker 1: Really good note to end on. Just really really pay attention. 758 00:40:54,204 --> 00:40:57,924 Speaker 1: There was a situation that happened this past week where 759 00:40:58,044 --> 00:41:01,644 Speaker 1: with one of you know, Poker's characters that people really like, 760 00:41:01,724 --> 00:41:05,604 Speaker 1: I think he's great, Texas Mike, and he talked about 761 00:41:05,604 --> 00:41:08,884 Speaker 1: a situation where a player had raised, he went all 762 00:41:08,924 --> 00:41:14,004 Speaker 1: in and the dealer pushed the blinds and antis to him. 763 00:41:14,604 --> 00:41:17,204 Speaker 1: Texas Mic was also playing on the phone at the 764 00:41:17,204 --> 00:41:19,684 Speaker 1: same time and mucked his cards like assuming that it 765 00:41:19,724 --> 00:41:22,284 Speaker 1: was the whole pot. The other player had never folded 766 00:41:22,644 --> 00:41:26,124 Speaker 1: and still had his cards, and the dealer fucked up, 767 00:41:26,404 --> 00:41:29,244 Speaker 1: and Texas Mike ended up losing the pot. He had 768 00:41:29,284 --> 00:41:31,524 Speaker 1: to put in the amount of the rays and it 769 00:41:31,564 --> 00:41:33,604 Speaker 1: was just it was just a nightmare. He had had 770 00:41:33,644 --> 00:41:36,764 Speaker 1: pocket Queen's But yeah, it was a really bad situation 771 00:41:36,964 --> 00:41:39,364 Speaker 1: just because the dealer messed up and he was on 772 00:41:39,364 --> 00:41:41,324 Speaker 1: his phone. This was not even an angle shoot. So 773 00:41:41,644 --> 00:41:45,964 Speaker 1: bottom line, pay attention. There's nothing that's more important to 774 00:41:46,044 --> 00:41:49,924 Speaker 1: your bottom line, to your end results of anything in life, 775 00:41:49,964 --> 00:41:53,124 Speaker 1: but especially you know at poker in the World series, 776 00:41:53,164 --> 00:41:54,124 Speaker 1: just pay attention. 777 00:41:53,884 --> 00:41:56,484 Speaker 2: And if you believe you won the pot. Where there's 778 00:41:56,524 --> 00:41:59,204 Speaker 2: anything ambiguous, you might be misreading the boord. That can 779 00:41:59,244 --> 00:42:01,844 Speaker 2: happen in Omaha games and you might have won the pot. 780 00:42:02,044 --> 00:42:04,284 Speaker 2: Do not fold, Do not muck your hand. 781 00:42:04,404 --> 00:42:05,404 Speaker 1: Never muck your hand. 782 00:42:05,364 --> 00:42:09,324 Speaker 2: Until the chips are pushed your way. 783 00:42:08,204 --> 00:42:10,644 Speaker 1: Or even when they are being pushed your way. Because 784 00:42:10,644 --> 00:42:13,364 Speaker 1: the dealer was pushing the chips towards Mike, right, she 785 00:42:13,484 --> 00:42:15,724 Speaker 1: just didn't understand that there was someone else in the 786 00:42:16,164 --> 00:42:20,044 Speaker 1: in the handstill, so just be hyper hyper aware. Always 787 00:42:20,364 --> 00:42:23,924 Speaker 1: on that note, Nate, good luck today in the five 788 00:42:24,004 --> 00:42:26,044 Speaker 1: K six Max and to both of us in the 789 00:42:26,084 --> 00:42:28,204 Speaker 1: tag team. I hope that by the time our listeners 790 00:42:28,244 --> 00:42:36,004 Speaker 1: hear this, we will be at the final table. Let 791 00:42:36,084 --> 00:42:38,044 Speaker 1: us know what you think of the show. Reach out 792 00:42:38,044 --> 00:42:42,164 Speaker 1: to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. And 793 00:42:42,284 --> 00:42:44,404 Speaker 1: by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, we 794 00:42:44,484 --> 00:42:47,204 Speaker 1: have some bonus content for you that's coming up right 795 00:42:47,204 --> 00:42:48,164 Speaker 1: after the credits. 796 00:42:48,364 --> 00:42:51,604 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 797 00:42:51,804 --> 00:42:53,964 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 798 00:42:54,324 --> 00:42:57,124 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and ad 799 00:42:57,124 --> 00:42:59,924 Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 800 00:43:00,164 --> 00:43:03,724 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanikova. 801 00:43:03,044 --> 00:43:05,404 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 802 00:43:05,444 --> 00:43:09,204 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. So this episode was 803 00:43:09,484 --> 00:43:12,884 Speaker 2: used by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Sonia Gerwit. 804 00:43:13,044 --> 00:43:15,524 Speaker 2: Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is 805 00:43:15,604 --> 00:43:18,164 Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 806 00:43:18,444 --> 00:43:19,644 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for tuning in.