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Welcome 21 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: to the Favorites That podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 22 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:27,919 Speaker 1: I and Chad Moment, chief content Officer of the Action Network. 23 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: We're going to do one of my favorite shows of 24 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: the non NFL season today because over the past few years, 25 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: nothing has become more exciting or more interesting two veteran 26 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: betters and net new betters as the NFL Draft market, 27 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: truly like for years it was an event that a 28 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: lot of veteran betters were looking at because it was 29 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: the offshore illegal books that we're taking all the bets 30 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: right and now specially our sponsor FanDuel are offering so 31 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: many markets on betting the NFL Draft, and look it is. 32 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: It is the ultimate crapshoot. It is the ultimate whisper, 33 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: ultimate whisper game. It is as much fun as anything 34 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: out there. If you are looking to get a little 35 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: bit of a sweat on an event that is really 36 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: just reading a list, right, but it's the most exciting 37 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 1: list that's going to be read between now in the 38 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: start of the NFL season and this year this year. 39 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: It's happening in Vegas, and for like the first time 40 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: in two years, Action Network is going out into the universe. 41 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: We're having an event we for anyone in Vegas. Anyone 42 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: in Vegas. Next week, we are hosting a pre NFL 43 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: Draft happy hour at Circus Stadium Swim in downtown Las Vegas. 44 00:02:55,320 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, April twenty seven. We've got a open bar, 45 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: We've got surprise guests, We've got betting tips from some 46 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,399 Speaker 1: of your favorite Action pros. Gotta be twenty one and over. 47 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: It's totally free. It does require an r s v P. 48 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: If you're in Vegas next week, check out the link 49 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: in this episode description to r s v P. I 50 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: gotta say the last time we did an event in Vegas, 51 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: it was March Madness and we had like five people there. 52 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my co host, my bff, my companion, Mikempadre, 53 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: you and I were gonna talk about the NFL Draft. 54 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: We're gonna bring in my nemesis, Matthew Freedman, director of 55 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: content for Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, former Action Network 56 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: colleague who we still love dearly, at least some some 57 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: people do so Simon. At this time last year, we 58 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: were talking about the draft, and you famously, famously before 59 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: we bring Freedman in, who was a draft expert, Freeman 60 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: a couple of years to go when he was that 61 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: Action Network sent this Jerry McGuire type memo about why 62 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: we should cover the draft and turned himself into a 63 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: draft expert. But last year, you famously had late breaking 64 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: news before the markets knew that the forty niners who 65 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 1: had been saying all along the reports have been all along, 66 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 1: they were gonna take mac Jones number three. You bet 67 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: huge six figures against mac Jones being drafted number three. 68 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 1: And then about forty hours before the draft, you came 69 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: on the podcast and you said mac Jones will not 70 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: be number three, and for the next forty hours that 71 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: was the conversation right up until free Lance was drafted. 72 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 1: Tell us about that process. Remind people of what that 73 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: process is like so we can get some sense of 74 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 1: the drama and the tension that goes into the draft 75 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: betting prospects. Um. Yeah, definitely a unique situation. That was 76 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: where I had my own draft. Everyone makes your own draftboard, 77 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 1: especial anyone betting this stuff. You have your own draft board, 78 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: and then you go through everyone else's draft boards. So I, 79 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: again I liked Mac Jones, but I looked at Mac 80 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: Jones is not a top three, top four quarterback in 81 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: that draft class. I just saw a better upside in 82 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: these other quarterbacks. So I always had doubt about it. 83 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: And again, we had the whole the whole media world 84 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: telling us for literally a month and a half, two 85 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 1: months that it was it was pretty much a guarantee 86 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: of Mac Jones was gonna be the third pick overall, 87 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 1: and I kept saying I didn't. I just didn't get it. 88 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: And then yeah, basically it's all rumors. Like we'll talk 89 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: on this show today about all the rumors I'm hearing. 90 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: That's a lot of what these next couple of weeks are. 91 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: It's so much BS, and you have to sift through 92 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: all this BS to try to find I need on 93 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: a hayjack. When it's like, okay, if if good information 94 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: is matching up with another person is really good information 95 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: and you trust both sources literally nighte ties that attend, 96 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: that's that's good info. Again, there's there's a lot of guys, 97 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 1: especially in sports gambling, that they give such shit info 98 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: because they're trying to move lines. Like they know. If 99 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: I put something out there, say it's just to my 100 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: hundred clients, that's gonna move a number. These people have 101 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: money to move numbers. I've gotten duped plenty of times. 102 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: I can't tell you any times I've been duped. But 103 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: that's again that's me being young. I've learned over the 104 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: years what's who's to screw on me, who's not? And 105 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: last year is a rare exception where I thought that 106 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 1: line sunk with Mac got some really good intel basically 107 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: long story short from a bookmaker in a California area, 108 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: and this guy was giving as good info where okay, 109 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: we could trust this guy. There's something fishy about why 110 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: people kept bet in Trey Lance to go a third overall. 111 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 1: And I told you though I had PTSD from it. 112 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: Where when Goodell announced the pick, I heard Mac Jones 113 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: in my head even though he had said Trey Lands, 114 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: I literally collapsed to the floor. So that's one of 115 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: those where this year I'm not betting anywhere near as 116 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: much as I did last year. Um, things could change, 117 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: but at this point I'm not close to six figures, 118 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: so I do have some money out there. We'll talk 119 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: about it as we get into the show here. But 120 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 1: that was definitely a unicorn situation where it was getting 121 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: some really good info and all of a sudden, my 122 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: phone was blowing up because it was like, Okay, just 123 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: checked out and everyone was jumping on this line. So 124 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: that was that was crazy. I think we literally had 125 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: the show during the draft, right, we did a Thursday show. 126 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: I had my bad phone, I had my other phone, 127 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: and it was like I was getting bombarded. I hopped 128 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: off the call with you. I literally drove to A C. 129 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: I pulled over right because I don't know at the time, 130 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: I think I only had one runner. I had to 131 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: pull over on the side of the A C Expressway 132 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: do some video with you. Put the you guys put 133 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: the video. And by time I got to a lank city, 134 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: the number had already moved from I think it was 135 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: like plus nine hundred maybe down to plus three hundred 136 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: by the time I got there. So and at forty 137 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: five minutes an hour time, and I was like, all right, 138 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 1: I love Chad, that's the last time that's happening, um, 139 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: but now we've broken other stuff. That was definitely one 140 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: of those I was like, holy sh it, that was 141 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: crazy that the info got out that quick and like 142 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: that one day that that line moved six plus six hundred. 143 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: It was. That was really fun last year that draft. 144 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: Hey Freeman, while Simon is talking, I can see you 145 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: on the zoom here miling. Tell people when you started 146 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: to realize the opportunity in the draft markets. I think 147 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: it was the Baker Mayfield Draft, which, uh, I feel 148 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: like it all comes full circle now with you know, 149 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: questions about is Baker going to be traded in time 150 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: for the draft, but it was it was the Baker 151 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: Mayfield Draft. We had the five quarterbacks in the first round, 152 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: which you know would have been one of the largest 153 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: quarterback classes we've seen in NFL history. And so it 154 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: was that was a fantastic draft. And you did see 155 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: the offshore books uh really starting to amplify the markets 156 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: that they were offering there. And it wasn't even just 157 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: you know, like a year a couple of years later 158 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: that you see, especially with COVID hitting, you saw the 159 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: legal sports books start to put props out there because 160 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: what else were people going to be betting on? Uh 161 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: So that was that was really the Baker Mayfield Draft. 162 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: And we had some situation that year where people thought 163 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: Sam Donald might be the number one pick, people thought 164 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: maybe Josh Allen would be the number one pick, and 165 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: then the day of Boom, the lines just move within 166 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: thirty minutes and it's Baker Mayfield as the number one pick. Uh. 167 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: So you know, we maybe we'll see a similar situation 168 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: this year with Adan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, maybe Evan Neil 169 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: is a potential number one pick. I think we're going 170 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: to see some lines move pretty intriguingly the day of Well, 171 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: I mean, Simon just said something really interesting. Everyone makes 172 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: their own draft board and then you start making your 173 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 1: bets off of that. Freedman back to you before I 174 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: go to Simon with the same question, when did you 175 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: make your first draft board? And then how quickly did 176 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 1: you start investing in the market. I did release a 177 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: way too early mocked for the class the week after 178 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: the draft, and I did come up actually a a 179 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: top fifty big board for all of the prospects that 180 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: I looked at when completing that mock. But I didn't 181 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: go back to that big board until after the Super Bowl. Simon, 182 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: at what point did you start making bets on the 183 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 1: NFL Draft this year? And who did you bet. I 184 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: would say every year is different, for sure. Everyone has 185 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: different times where you do differ things. Where I used 186 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: to start prepping in December, nowadays I probably don't start 187 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 1: until I don't know. I got back early March. I 188 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: started getting into it, I'd say first week of March, 189 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: and then by you know, the second or third week 190 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: of March, I'll have my actual draft board up. Because 191 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: again I steal from because I don't watch college football. 192 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: You know, it's during the NFL season. You're just locked in. 193 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 1: So I started getting to college football around bowl season. 194 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,839 Speaker 1: I'll start watching tape on guys that I read about 195 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: and things like that. But it really is a long process. 196 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: So a lot of these experts spend the whole year 197 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: doing it because it's just so many players to go through. 198 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: So for me and my draft, what I would start saying, 199 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: I really started betting and building out mid March. And 200 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: then again, last year was kind of a fluky situation. 201 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: I really had a good read on that and I 202 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: was able to bet at all month and a half 203 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: until the draft, where that's that was an advantage. Right 204 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: now that we're so close, the most I can get 205 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 1: down is again depends on the sports book. Most I 206 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: can get down as a grand per bet like that's 207 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: they kind of want to limit their exposure, um, because 208 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: sports books are getting really smart at this stuff. So 209 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: I I would say the bets start pouring in mid March, 210 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: and the only stuff I've really touched so far has 211 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: been the QB stuff because you know, I mean, I 212 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: love betting quarterbacks and I just think this is a 213 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: really interesting class. Because again we'll we'll dive more into 214 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: this class, but it is a unique class where people 215 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: really didn't know who the number one quarterback was until 216 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. And the number one pick overall, 217 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: which I love Hutchinson. I think that's great value and 218 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: that's something again we're gonna talk about the show coming up. Yeah, 219 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: the second Simon's point. This year is very different than 220 00:11:56,040 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: last year. Last year it was heavy immediately bet and 221 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: it was it was a marathon, that was a sprint 222 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: the entire time up until the draft. This year is 223 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: very different. I made two bets pretty quickly on the quarterback. 224 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: It would be the number one quarterback. I believe we 225 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: talked about that on the show. I was with you 226 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 1: guys previously. Um, Malik Willis plus two hundred and can 227 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,199 Speaker 1: you pick it plus one? But those were the only 228 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: bets that I had sitting out there for about a month. 229 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: I just really didn't like a lot of what I 230 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 1: was seeing in the market. This year. It's so unknown 231 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the top ten relative to 232 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: last year. Uh, And it's only been the past couple 233 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: of weeks that I have really started to get back 234 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: into the market, UH with some force. Think we talked 235 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: about is just the demand. We last year had five 236 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:46,959 Speaker 1: quarterbacks that was like I think they had every day 237 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: at either clients or other pros hit me up talking 238 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: to the draft. This year it's been very staggnant, like, sure, 239 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 1: if I get together a couple of their pros, we'll 240 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: talk about it. But it's it's definitely different last year, 241 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: where it's just not there's always excitement, right is the 242 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: NFL Draft, But that was crazy last year, like the 243 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: five quarterbacks, it was NonStop talk. This year, well, it's 244 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 1: been Brady, it's been Russell Wilson. There's been a lot 245 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 1: of quarterback movement for us to talk about, not the draft. 246 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 1: So that's definitely one thing I've noticed. The difference of 247 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: this year compared to last year for sure. And also 248 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: the books haven't offered nearly as many props this year 249 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: as they did last year, which is why I was 250 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: out of the market for a little bit, just waiting 251 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: for the books to put props out there. And so 252 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: now you see the typical draft position props that you 253 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,439 Speaker 1: see out there, Evan neil over under three and a 254 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: half or four and a half, But you still don't 255 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: see in most sports books a lot of the other props. 256 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: You know that would be like Ravens offensive player or 257 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: defensive player with their first pick, or Ravens which position 258 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: do they draft with their first round pick? And you 259 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: know I have all of the positions listed there. You 260 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: don't see a lot of props like that at the 261 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: books this year. Uh. And I think part of it 262 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: is because they got hammered pretty good last year and 263 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: they don't want that exposed. They don't want that heat. 264 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: So you mentioned Kenny Pickett, uh, And I do want 265 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: to go sort of through the top of the draft 266 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: board because I do think it's interesting right now. Uh. 267 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: Probably three players that are getting a lot of heat. Um. 268 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: But you mentioned Kenny Pickett some some draft notes from 269 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: researcher extraordinary at the Action Network, Evan Abrams, who's brilliant 270 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: at this The players from the University of Pittsburgh who 271 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: have been drafted in the first round in the last decade, 272 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: uh Aaron Donald two fourteen. You may have heard of him, 273 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: Urban Meyer hasn't, but you guys may have heard of 274 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: him overall to the then St. Louis Rams. And this 275 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: year it will be Kenny Pickett, the University of Pittsburgh 276 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: quarterback drafted in the first round the last time before 277 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett, Simon, can you name him? Is it my 278 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: uncle Dan Marino? It is your uncle Dan Marino. He's 279 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: not to your uncle though. No, but I was born 280 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: I told you. I was born in Miami, the same 281 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: hospital that he had his kids up. No way, I 282 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: didn't know that. You did tell me that. I don't 283 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: remember that. Yeah, I was there for a couple of 284 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: coffee that my mom swooped me back to England because 285 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: I guess they wanted me to have American citizenship. The nineties, 286 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: what a weird time that was. The eighties they were 287 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: fucking whack. The eighties. Don't even listen. I can barely 288 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: remember them. Do not, do not talk to me about 289 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: the eighties. Um, all right, so let's talk about the 290 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: top of the board. You mentioned Simon Aidan Hutchinson, Like, 291 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: where are we seeing opportunities the Jags They put the 292 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: franchise tag on Cam Robinson, which all of a sudden 293 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: meant Evan Neil probably not gonna go number one overall, 294 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: the left tackle from Alabama. So what are we seeing 295 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: at the top of the board. Matthew Friedman, tell me 296 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: about the opportunity go It's intriguing. So everyone is looking 297 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: at Aiden Hutchinson thinking that he's going to be the guy. 298 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: He's been the odds on fat for a majority of 299 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: this process now, but Trayvon Walker is starting to gain steam. 300 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: And I will just say there is a split in 301 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville the Jacksonville organization where you have ownership wanting 302 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: the golden boy, Aiden Hutchinson, you want general manager Trent Balky, 303 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: who wants Trayvon Walker. And then you have the coaching staff, 304 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: which is more of an offensive oriented coaching staff that 305 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: has Lawrence, you know, one of the greatest prospects of 306 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: all time, and they want to protect him. And so 307 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: they're thinking, maybe we can get an offensive tackle and 308 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 1: offensive lineman, someone to help solidify everything in front of him. 309 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: And so I think you could see this going three 310 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: different ways. And I'll just say one more thing. Trent Balky, 311 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: we know that he has a very tumultuous history with 312 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh over his body. Is he going to want 313 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: to draft Jim Harbaugh's golden boy is the number one 314 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: overall pick? Like, I know that's not very professional way 315 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: to think about it, but like Balky has made questionable 316 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: decisions in the past, and Trayvon Walker is exactly the 317 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: type of guy, the athletic marvel that Balky has historically 318 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: wanted for his organizations. I think we've already seen this 319 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: line moved from Aiden Hutchinson towards Trayvon Walker. It is 320 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: going to increasingly move in that direction. And if I 321 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: had to make a bet right now on the number 322 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: one pick, it would be Trayvon Walker and not Aidan Hutchinson. 323 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 1: So we're gonna make a bet based on your supposition 324 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: that Trent Balky's feelings for Aiden Hutchinson's college coach are 325 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 1: so so poisonous that he would put his team in 326 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: a bad position just to avoid drafting a player coach 327 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: by Jim Harbaugh. It wouldn't be the first time the 328 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: ballky has made a questionable decision when it comes to Harbaugh. 329 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 1: But it's not just that, not primarily that. It's the 330 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: mock draft data and it's the odds that we see 331 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: up on the board. I don't think there's any value 332 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: right now embedding on Aiden Hutchinson. But there is value 333 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: I think based on the mock draft data and based 334 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: on where this line has been, and I think the 335 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 1: trajectory of where it is going towards the draft. I 336 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: would bet it now because it's going to be closer 337 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: to minus money by the time draft it gets here. Simon, 338 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: you gotta take on what Freedman is saying. Yeah, I'm 339 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: already heavily invested in Aiden, so I'm hoping he's wrong. 340 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: I just like you're talking. As soon as they kind 341 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: of addressed that offensive line position, I just looked at 342 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: my looked at my board and thought, what's the smart 343 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,479 Speaker 1: thing to do here? You just take the guaranteed stud 344 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: We we know, we know what Hutchins is gonna do. 345 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: Like this kid is he's a legit Jake, He's one 346 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 1: of the brothers. He's just he's built the same way 347 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: as then like the Boastes. They're all these really really speed, 348 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: strong edge rushers, and is back to back super bowl 349 00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: as we've seen kind of what's flipped these super Bowls. 350 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: It's these guys on the edges. So when I'm looking 351 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: this team in Jacksonville, I honestly hate teams that draft 352 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: high up in this position, don't take quarterbacks. But they're 353 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: in the proposition they don't need a quarterback like you. 354 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: Just like they have Lawrence. You get the d end 355 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: here the offensive lineman. They've kind of already addressed it. 356 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: So they got Josh Allen on one side, Hutchinson on 357 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: the other side. That's a huge deal for this Jacksonville 358 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: team that they kind of need to build that in 359 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: the inside out. They gotta build the old line, the 360 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: D line. They've addressed the old line this offseason. I 361 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: think they'll do it again next offseason. And they all 362 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,160 Speaker 1: had another piece of that. But if you have Josh Allen, 363 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: Josh Allen and Hutchinson can work out on that D line, 364 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: that's that's incredible for Jacksonville. So I'm hoping that Matthews 365 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: right that the line keeps moving because I'll take more 366 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: value on Hutchinson because it was at minus two at 367 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: one point once the draft of minus two and I 368 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: dipped in, like I started buying in on it. It's 369 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: down to one seventy now I've I've been buying the 370 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: dip that it's been dropping down, and I'm getting a 371 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 1: little nervous because, like he's talking about, there's a lot 372 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: of rumors with Jacksonville apparently really are unsure what they 373 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,719 Speaker 1: want to do right now. So I still think it's 374 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: good value because I think he is the no brainer here. 375 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: We've already heard the lines. They're praying that they passed 376 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: on them. They really want this kid, so to me, 377 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,239 Speaker 1: I I just don't see Jacksonville passing on it. But 378 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: it is interesting that you know what, are we nine 379 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 1: days out, eight days out and we still have no 380 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: idea the number one pick. Well, it's it is interesting. 381 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: If you're Aiden Hutchinson, would you rather go to Jacksonville 382 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: or Detroit? Come on, come on, Jacksonville, you get you 383 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: get the crack, kick that out of you, and it's November. 384 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 1: You can head to the beach after a game in Jacksonville. 385 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: Guess what you're doing in Detroit? November. You're miserable. It's 386 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: it's not the place you want to be. So yeah, 387 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,160 Speaker 1: but he doesn't care. He's from there. That's why it's 388 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: interesting to me. That's true. I don't know. If I 389 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: had to thank a guy with millions of dollars, I 390 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: would say it would be nice to have five years 391 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Then he can move back to Detroit after 392 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 1: his first contract. I'm also thinking out the trajectory of 393 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: each team more than I'm thinking about place to live 394 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: and opportunity. I mean, much much rather be Jacksonville. You 395 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 1: already have the quarterback. I mean, as much as we 396 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: laugh and joke about golf, it's like again Detroit. I 397 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: don't want to be too hard on them. They're one 398 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: of these teams that I kind of hate because it's 399 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: like you're trading water until you have a quarterback. So 400 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: this year, who knows what they're gonna do. If I 401 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: was them, I would just start drafting the quarterback like 402 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: Malik Williams, whoever willis, whoever you're gonna draft there. They're 403 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: just gonna do what the Browns kept doing. The Browns 404 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: kept seeing an excuse of oh, we're gonna keep waiting 405 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 1: let's draft Miles Garrett instead of drafting uh, you know, 406 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson or even your boy Robiski. 407 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,640 Speaker 1: It's like, these teams just keep kicking the can down 408 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: the road, and I hate teams that do that stuff. 409 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 1: So I already read that Detroit's gonna pass on the 410 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: quarterback on the top two, and it just pisses me 411 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: off because it's like, you're just you're just what, You're 412 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 1: just wasting time. You're wasting another year of your team's talent. 413 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: All right, Freeman, I had said to Simon earlier in 414 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: the year, I would not be surprised. In fact, I 415 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: was placing a bet that there would not be a 416 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 1: quarterback taken in the top ten? Am I right or wrong? 417 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: Who will the first quarterback b? And what will they 418 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 1: be taken? Chad? I think you might be right. The 419 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: sharp mock drafts right now are pointing towards a quarterback 420 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: going at Carolina number six to Carolina, but it's pretty split. 421 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: They're pointing that way just a little bit, and I 422 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 1: honestly don't think that's gonna happen. I think they're going 423 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 1: to try to trade back because they don't have picks 424 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 1: in rounds two and three, try to trade back and 425 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: maybe draft a quarterback later in the first round. If 426 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 1: I had to say right now, who's the number one 427 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: quarterback and where he goes, I would say it's Malik Willis, 428 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 1: going number twenty to the Steelers. This is a bad 429 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 1: quarterback class. It's just it's not all time bad, but 430 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: it's pretty close. The under two and a half quarterbacks taken. 431 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of heat in mock drafts 432 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 1: that we could see three, maybe four quarterbacks go. A 433 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: couple quarterbacks sneak into the end of round one. I 434 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 1: will say, consistently, having studied mock drafts for years, quarterbacks 435 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: are consistently over mocked in this exercise. We just routinely 436 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 1: see one too many quarterbacks mocked. And so I'm gonna 437 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: take the under two and a half quarterbacks. If we 438 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: see a quarterback go in round one or in the 439 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 1: top ten, it's it's only one. And if I had 440 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,400 Speaker 1: to bet right now, I would bet no. Interesting you're 441 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,239 Speaker 1: saying the under is two and a half, we can 442 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: make the assumption that it's Malik Willis from Liberty and 443 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett from the University of Pittsburgh. If there were 444 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 1: a third who sneaks in there, free men you go, 445 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: it's split between Desmond Ritter and Matt Corral. I would 446 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: actually lean towards Corral. He's played in the SEC multiple 447 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: years of production there, and he got an invitation to 448 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, and that doesn't mean everything, but guys 449 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: who get invitations to the draft, especially if they are quarterbacks, 450 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 1: they almost always go on the first day. So that 451 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: makes me a little bit nervous about the over under 452 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,640 Speaker 1: of two and a half because there are three quarterbacks 453 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: who are going to be attending the draft. But still, 454 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: this is a bad class. I'm thinking of Geno Smith 455 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 1: slipping today two. I could see something like that. This 456 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: is what makes betting on the draft so interesting and 457 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 1: a little bit absurd. You guys are both is deep 458 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: in modeling analytics on field translation to what that means 459 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: for a number against the spread or totals or player props, 460 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,920 Speaker 1: whatever it is. What you just said, Freeman, I want 461 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: to unpack this so people really understand how this is 462 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 1: both completely fun and completely absurd. You're judging the sharp mocks, 463 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: which I don't know who that is. We're judging the 464 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: fact that Historically quarterbacks are overmocked, and you're trying to 465 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: into it from the league's invice invite of a third 466 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: quarterback that he is likely to be drafted on day one, 467 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 1: and what is the value of that potentially being in 468 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 1: the first round. That is no way to make a 469 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: decision on betting. It's totally ridiculous. It is totally ridiculous. 470 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 1: But the thing is you can quantify some of this 471 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: and put it in a model, which is still ridiculous 472 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,719 Speaker 1: on its own, but at least you can make some 473 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 1: sort of fake numerical judgment. Simon, are you standing by 474 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: your claim that a quarterback will be taken in the 475 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: top ten and if so, have you placed a bet 476 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: bet on that quarterback? Yeah? Of course we all know 477 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: quarterbacks going top ten. Chat, it was it was asinin 478 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: when you said it, I said it was stupid. Now 479 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: we said, here, Matthew Freeman's backing up, what the hell 480 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: is happening? Uh? Like, It's like it's like looking back 481 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: and be like, did Josh sound deserved to be a 482 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,400 Speaker 1: top ten quarterback? It's the same thing. These guys are 483 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: just this raw ball of clay. Like if a kid's 484 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: over six three he's got a big gass arm like 485 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: this kid from Liberty does, and he's fast. They don't 486 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: care that he was throwing a garbage and that his 487 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 1: numbers weren't great. They're looking at what can I take 488 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 1: this clay and mold him into So, I mean, I've 489 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 1: heard Pittsburgh is obsessed with him. I could see them 490 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,159 Speaker 1: moving up and grabbing him. I can't see Carolina passed 491 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 1: on it, just because, like you said, they don't have 492 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 1: a second and third round pick. This is kind of 493 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 1: it for this coaching staff. It feels like, is he 494 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: really gonna tie his job to Sam Donald this upcoming 495 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: season and they're gonna be terrible in Carolina? And that's 496 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 1: just it, Like they're gonna fire the coaching staff and 497 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: maybe the GM there in Carolina. I can see them 498 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: being desperate. So to me, I could see him a 499 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: leak making the top ten. UM. I've actually bet the 500 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,879 Speaker 1: over two and a half quarterbacks just because it's kind 501 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 1: of like Lamar Jackson. I've just seen teams they trade 502 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 1: back into the end of the first round to get 503 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 1: that fifth year option. That's a big deal. Instead of 504 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: waiting taking a quarterback in the second round, you have 505 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: them for four years. They like to come back in. 506 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: It could be Detroit that trades back into that first 507 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 1: round and grabs that quarterback. So I am actually on 508 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 1: the opposite side. I just like quarterback classes that people 509 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: say the class sucks. Those are my favorite classes. Again, 510 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 1: we talked about the Rabiski class. Everyone hated that class. 511 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 1: People kept saying, there's no number one quarterback. These guys 512 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: aren't that great, aren't that great? They'd be lucky if 513 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 1: one of these guys becomes an All Pro. Little did 514 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: we know we had my homes in that class. So 515 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: it is tough where it's just a lot of noise 516 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,919 Speaker 1: with the media. But I'm with him that I've just 517 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: I'm not crazy about this class because of all the 518 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: little warts these guys have. Like the Cincinnati quarterback. I've 519 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 1: watched his film. He looked great, but then he played 520 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: Bam and he looked like the quarterback for Cincinnati. I 521 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: mean real, Larry is good. But it's yeah, it's tough 522 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 1: for me. So I like the way I bet this 523 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: so far. I bet the over the quarterback stuff I 524 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 1: am nervous about, Like you just talked about the top 525 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: ten thing with you, Chad, just because I couldn't believe 526 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 1: when you said it. Just I just think teams, when 527 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 1: it comes to quarterbacks, you always overpay for one, just 528 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: because if you don't have a good quarterback, what do 529 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: you really have? And that's how I feel about this 530 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 1: draft class. It's like, yeah, it's not the best draft class, 531 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 1: but at the same time, you have a lot of 532 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 1: desperate teams that would be happy to take one of 533 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: these guys. And you know, tie your career to a 534 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 1: quarterback where it's like, we'll just give me another year. 535 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 1: We'll see how he does next year. Kind of deal. 536 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 1: A lot of the things I say are unbelievable right 537 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 1: up until they happen. That's how it goes with me. 538 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: Go yard all summer long with five dollar Dinger Tuesdays 539 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 1: on Fan Duel Sports book. 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In 562 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 1: Michigan called the Tennessee Redline one eight eight nine nine, 563 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. 564 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: I like your logic about why you would go over 565 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: two and a half on quarterbacks more than I like 566 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: Freedman's logic of this guy got an invite to be 567 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: at the draft, so we got a glean from that 568 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:36,479 Speaker 1: that he's going on day one versus Yeah, teams sneak 569 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: into picking a quarterback with the last pick because you know, like, 570 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 1: maybe they've got time to develop a quarterback and there's 571 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: someone they like and it's worth a flyer. And when 572 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 1: you're drafting at the bottom of the first round, you're 573 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: not getting what you're expecting to be all pro talent anyways, 574 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: and your team is usually pretty good, so you could 575 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: see trying to get someone you think and has a 576 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: high ceiling. In the last couple of minutes, here, Freedman, 577 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: give me right now your best bets for the NFL Draft. 578 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: Best bets, all right? I will say Evan Neil versus 579 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,280 Speaker 1: a chem A Kwantu. That is a great matchup in 580 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: terms of who's going to be the top offensive lineman 581 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 1: taken in the draft. If you look across the market, 582 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 1: A Quantu is favored, and I get it. He's the 583 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 1: sexier player on film. You just see him pancaking multiple 584 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 1: dudes when he's outrun blocking. But Evan Neil is the 585 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: more polished prospect. He has more more versatility. He's played 586 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: right tackle, left tackle, he's played interior as a guard. 587 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: I think he should be favored. He's favored in the 588 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: sharp mock drafts. He's favored by a number of other 589 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 1: factors that I look at and across the market. You know, 590 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: anywhere from plus one thirty to plus one fifties is 591 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 1: a number that you can find. I am betting on 592 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 1: Evan Neil to be the top offensive lineman taken in 593 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 1: this class. That's really interesting because there was a time 594 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: where I remember Simon during the football season, we talked 595 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 1: about one prospect and it was a Kim Kwanu from 596 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: NC State co offensive lineman of the week. When the 597 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 1: season began, like Freeman said, had this sort of laundry 598 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: list of amazing stats, rose up the draft board and 599 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 1: there were rumors about him potentially being number one overall, 600 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: and the markets completely moved on him. Yeah, and honestly, 601 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 1: I'll stem from apparently one guy write in an article, 602 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: I think Evan was the one that actually figured it out, 603 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 1: Like because I couldn't figure it out. I was like, 604 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: I've called multiple professional groups. None of them bet it. 605 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: Like I I didn't know who was betting it, and 606 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: it came out we won't name the newspaper, but someone 607 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: wrote about it and they put it online. The guy 608 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: moved there from a hundred of one down to ten 609 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,440 Speaker 1: to one. Now, I mean, I've seen a couple of 610 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 1: different websites having him mocked being the first serverall picked 611 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Now so I mean that it's crazy. I 612 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: think where it was that what was that three or 613 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: four months ago? Chat? Now where we're at, he's down 614 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: from ten to one, which is what we gave out 615 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 1: on the show because we're like, hey, someone knows something 616 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: to take a flyer on it. I love these kind 617 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: of drafts. It's not great for betting on because it's 618 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 1: so much unknown, but I love it because it's fun. 619 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 1: It's like, this is this is what we want, right, 620 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: It's like, give me a really crazy mental draft, because 621 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 1: if one of these teams do trade up for one 622 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks, it's gonna kind of set off a 623 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: domino for this whole draft, where all we've really talked 624 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: about is just gonna be kind of boring. It's gonna 625 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 1: be a bunch of deal lineman, a bunch of the 626 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,959 Speaker 1: offensive lineman. I mean, this draft is really really, really good, 627 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 1: but it's not sexy like people love. And I think 628 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 1: that's kind of been the big difference here where it's 629 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 1: like football heads, this is like a really great draft, 630 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: but to just the fans of it, they're just like, 631 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 1: who's the quarterback? And what are the two receivers from 632 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: Ohio State? And it's like kind of been one of 633 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 1: those things when people are talking or asking me about 634 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: this year's draft. Alright, Freedman's favorite bet is uh Evan 635 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 1: plus money to go before a Kim Kwano from NC State. Simon, 636 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 1: before we wrap up here, what is your favorite draft 637 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,960 Speaker 1: bet or bets? I literally saw before we got on 638 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: here they had over two and a half d lineman 639 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 1: taken in the top five. They've taken it down, so 640 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 1: I don't know if something's happens to be on the show. 641 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,319 Speaker 1: I actually really like that bet. I think there's good 642 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,719 Speaker 1: value in that bet for top five because you know, 643 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 1: it seems like it could be too offensive linemen, and 644 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: then again there could be there could be a quarterback 645 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: sneaking in there. But all I keep hearing about is 646 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 1: Walker Hutchinson and Kevan uh So. I don't know. I 647 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 1: would say that was when I like coming in. But 648 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,720 Speaker 1: if people are looking for just now for me to bet, 649 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 1: I liked the over the quarterback to two and a half. 650 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,919 Speaker 1: I think it's minus one ten or minus one oh five. 651 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,240 Speaker 1: I just I like the idea of a team trading 652 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 1: back in and doing what they did with Lamar Jackson, 653 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 1: Like you just draft a guy, get him for five years, 654 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 1: ouad of the years, and we talk all the time. 655 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 1: That's how teams make Super Bowl runs. Nowadays, they get 656 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 1: this rookie contract and they build around it. I know 657 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,399 Speaker 1: teams are gonna do it. So to me that that's 658 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 1: where I see value right now. Was taking over two 659 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,720 Speaker 1: and a half quarterbacks first round. All Right, Freeman likes 660 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 1: uh Neo to be drafted first over a Quantu. Simon 661 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: likes over two and a half quarterbacks in the first round. 662 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,080 Speaker 1: Freeman actually likes under two and a half quarterbacks in 663 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 1: the first round, so we'll get a good look at 664 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 1: that four. Matthew Freedman, director of content for Betting Pros 665 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros for my BFF, my companion, my compadre, 666 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:44,000 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for our producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am 667 00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:50,240 Speaker 1: Chad Mellman. Hey listen, don't forget people, Don't forget. Action 668 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 1: Network is hosting a live happy hour in Vegas on 669 00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: April for the Draft and honor of the Draft. NFL 670 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:06,399 Speaker 1: Draft Happy Hour at Circus Stadium Swim in Downtown Las 671 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 1: Vegas Wednesday, April, Open bar, surprise guest betting tips from 672 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,359 Speaker 1: some of your favorite Action pros. Gotta be twenty one 673 00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,840 Speaker 1: or over. It's totally free, but requires an r s 674 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 1: v P, so if you're in Vegas next week, check 675 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:26,439 Speaker 1: out the link in this episode description to artist VP 676 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:33,719 Speaker 1: until Thursday. I am Chad Millman. Rate review, subscribe, Spotify, 677 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, wherever you do it feedback as a gift, 678 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: I love you,