WEBVTT - What Next for the People of Iran? 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:08.039 Media. It's been more than a month since the US 0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:11.280 in Israel began raining down bombs in Iran. We've covered 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.280 the weekly developments every week on Executive Disorder, but I 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:16.480 decided that it was high time made a full episode 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:18.760 to get people up to speed with the USA's Latst 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:21.600 aggression and the IDF opening up another front and its 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.000 multi front war against the people of the Middle East. Normally, 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:27.400 one would expect a major war with a major power 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.760 like this, which has fundamentally destabilized the region, a ground 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:34.520 world trade to a halt, caused massive inflation, to have 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:38.040 some kind of very clearly defined set of goals. That 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.800 is not the case here. We have seen various justifications, 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.000 but the most common one seems to be that Iran 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:48.120 is just weeks from creating a nuclear bomb. This is 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:51.600 a claim that specifically Benjaminett and Yahoo has been making 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:54.800 for almost the entire time I have been alive. Here 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:57.000 he is saying something similar a decade ago. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:01.320 The foremost sponsor of global terrorism could be weeks away 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:06.120 from having enough and rich uranium for an entire arsenal 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:07.440 of nuclear weapons. 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:11.000 His claim was fanciful then, and it remains even more 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.720 so now after twenty twenty five, Operation Midnight Hammer saw 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:18.600 the USA and Israel attempt to bomb nuclear facilities. Indeed, 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.480 the White House itself publishes statement on the twenty fifth 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.880 of June following Operation Midnight Hammer, in which they quoted 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.720 the Israel Atomic Energy Commission saying, quote, we assessed that 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.880 the American strikes and around nuclear facilities, combined with the 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:35.400 Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:38.760 has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:43.119 many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.400 not get access to nuclear material. It also include a 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:50.160 quotation from Pete Hegseth, as Secretary of Defense, saying quote, 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.280 based on everything we have seen, and I've seen it all, 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:59.040 our bombing campaign abliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.960 that was less a year ago. It seems unlikely that 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:07.240 they destroyed much or any of the uranium that was stockpiled, 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:10.200 but they certainly would have delayed plans to enrich that 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:14.080 uranium or to build into a bomb. Nonetheless, on the 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.640 twenty eighth of February this year, a massive campaign of 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:19.760 air strikes, high mars Ber arches and ballistic mistile attacks 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:24.560 on Iran began under the codename Operation Epic Fury. The 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.600 acronym OEF will be familiar to many as the same 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:29.600 one used by the USA for more than a decade 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:31.760 of war in Afghanistan and other parts of the world 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:35.680 during what it called the Global War on Terror. On 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.400 the day I'm writing this, it's exactly twenty three years 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:41.280 since United States marines tore down the statue of Saddam 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:44.440 Hussein that stood outside the seventeenth of Ramada Mosque in 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:49.440 Ferdo Square in Baghdad, removed his regime from power. Since then, 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:52.800 for my entire adult life and much of my childhood, 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:55.560 the USA has been dropping bombs on the Middle East. 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:59.480 This month, the temper and ferocity of the aerial bombardment 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:02.200 took a step to a temper we haven't seen since 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:05.480 perhaps the peak of the Coalition war against the Islamic State, 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.280 or perhaps even the shock and or bombing campaign of 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:11.000 March two thousand and three. And I want to go 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.760 back to that campaign to explain exactly how we got 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.720 to this one. The chokan Or campaign was based on 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.840 a doctrine called rapid dominance that sought to establish a 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:23.800 post Cold War military ethos the United States. The theorist 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.960 behind it named Alman and Wade explicitly outlined that to 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.280 work the shock and or bombing campaign had to achieve 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:32.840 a level of national shock like that of the dropping 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.920 of the atomic bombs on Japan, and that power and 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:40.160 other civilian infrastructure might well be targeted. In an interview 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.280 in February two thousand and three, Olmand said, quote, what 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.120 we want to do is create in the mind of 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.400 the Iraqi leadership and their soldiers this shock and owe 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:52.560 so they're intimidated, made to feel so impotent, so helpless, 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:55.320 that they have no choice but to do what we 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.120 want them to do. So the smartest thing to say 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:02.360 is this is hopeless. We quit. The US attempted to 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.240 pummel their adversary so hard in two thousand and three 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.680 that it would demoralized troops and lead to a rapid 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:12.120 victory through the use and display of overwhelming force in 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:15.360 Iraq twenty three years ago. It sort of worked. The 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:18.240 regime crumbled in less than a month, the USA got 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.320 its quote unquote victory, and by the first of May 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:24.080 of that year, George W. Bush had landed on the USS. 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.159 Abraham Lincoln off San Diego and given a speech in 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:31.320 front of a large banner that read mission accomplished. Twenty 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.320 three years later, the Lincoln is in the Middle East 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:38.440 and bombs are once again raining down on Iran and Iraq, 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:42.800 while one way drones and missiles Iran slam into targets 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:46.839 all over the region. In Iraq, twenty three years later, 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:50.120 the United States embassy is once again being attacked, the 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.400 US journalist was kidnapped, and the State Department it's telling 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:57.640 citizens to avoid the region. The US bombing campaign in 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.279 Iran this year dwarfs to two thousand and three Shock 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:03.839 and All campaign, with the first day of Operation Epic 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.480 Fury being almost twice the scale of the two thousand 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:10.280 and three bombardment. However, they do have several things in common. 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:14.000 Just like the bombardment of Iraq. Even twenty three years later, 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.880 the US and Israeli air war showed us that there 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:19.320 is no such thing as a precision bombing campaign on 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.279 this scale. On the very first day of the war, 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:25.719 the twenty eighth of February twenty twenty six, a missile 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.520 slammed into a girl's elementary school in Minab, then another, 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:33.640 and then another when the dust settled, more than one 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:37.760 hundred and seventy five people have been killed, mostly schoolgirls 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:41.800 between the age of seven and twelve years old. The 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:44.640 school was located near an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base, but 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:46.440 the school building itself had not been part of a 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:50.280 military facility for a decade. And yet, despite targeting technology 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:54.240 that allowed three missiles to scream across a continent hit 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:58.120 a relatively small target in quick succession, apparently the US 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:00.440 military had not been able to ascertain, or did not 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.839 care to ascertain, that the result of their strike was 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:05.320 the death of as many as one hundred school children. 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:08.760 The fact that I am reporting this forty odd days 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.880 into the war suggests that despite an even larger scale 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:15.240 campaign than the USA deployed in two thousand and three, 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.960 despite the killing of little girls, the Iranian state has 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:22.000 not said this is hopeless, we quit as allman hoppy might. 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.200 Iran Supreme leader Ali Hamani was assassinated in initial attacks. 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:30.120 The power has since passed on to his son. Iran 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.200 remains very much in the fight despite the massive display 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:36.520 of force by the US and Israel. Instead of quitting 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:39.440 and giving up, they have been sending ballistic missiles and 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.400 one way drones into targets throughout the Gulf States, Israel, 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:46.000 and southern Kurdistan. This is in part because the United 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.800 States and Israel had no clear shared plan for this war. 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.479 In two thousand and three, the US aimed to remove 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.760 Saddam Pasin, and it did that. It made a massive 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:57.080 cock up of everything it did after that. But this 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.160 time we have two belligerent nations with very distinct goals 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.640 who share a common interest in bombing the people of Iran. Israel, 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:06.960 which by some accounts hit more targets in the USA 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.600 early on in the war, is fighting to totally cripple 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:11.960 the Iranian state in a no holds barred, no laws 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:15.160 of war respected, campaign that has seen it bomb factories, 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:20.160 oil infrastructure, most horrifically of all desalination plants. The goal 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:23.360 for Israel is to make it impossible for Iran to recover. 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:26.800 It seems, to leave the region mired in poverty and 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:30.080 resource constraint, and make sure that no Iranian state, be 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:32.240 it this one or a different one, can ever be 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:35.520 a threat to Israel. Again. It has assassinated many of 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:37.720 the figures who have the ability to negotiate for peace, 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:40.120 and the recenc use fire seems to be something that 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.640 Israel does not feel itself to be beholden to. For 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:45.880 the US, the goal seems to be to use something 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:49.080 similar to shock and or to force Iran into conceding 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:52.080 its position and allowing the USA some access to its 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:56.320 significant petrochemical resources. Perhaps emboldened by its success in Venezuela, 0:07:56.360 --> 0:08:00.400 the US might be expecting a similar client state relationship here. However, 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:03.160 this has not been the outcome. Over the weekend of 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.760 the eleventh and twelfth of April, jd Vance, Jared Kushner, 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:09.280 and Steve Witcoff flew to Pakistan as part of a 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.920 Pakistani broke and ceasefire to engage in peace talks with Iran. 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.200 Before these peace talks, we saw both the US in 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:20.120 Iran circlating very different bases for negotiation, with Iran demanding 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:23.120 tolls for ships passing near its coastline, an end to sanctions, 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.160 and the removal of US forces from the region. The 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:28.960 US demanded an end to the nuclear program in Iran, 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.080 and at one point the President proposed a joint US 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.720 Iranian toll on ships passing through the Straight of Horn Moose. 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.400 Straight of Horn Moose is one of the areas where 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.920 there has been significant disagreement, and so I want to 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:42.880 explain a little bit about what the Strait of horn 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:46.800 Moose is for listeners who are not familiar. Geographically, the 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.480 strait connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Verman, 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.920 thus the open Ocean. It's just about thirty nine plumes 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.600 is wide across its narrows point, with about a quarter 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.320 of the worlds liquefied natural gas and seaborne oil passing 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.520 through the strait. Because of its geographical location, Asia and 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.679 Europe are especially reliant on these energy products. Many of 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.120 the Golf states will have no maritime export routes without 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.120 transitting the Strate. In response to the United States and 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.840 Israel's bombing campaign, Iran effectively closed the straight so a 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:18.400 combination of missile threats, claimed mining, very high frequency radio 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:22.120 broadcasts warning ships of the two previously mentioned threats, and 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.640 uncrude surface vessel attacks that blew up and damaged vessels, 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.200 including oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. At the time 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:32.400 of writing, Iran is threatening ships transiting the Strait, and 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.440 the US is attempting to blockade all ships that aim 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.679 to go to Iran. Iran has previously allowed some ships 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:40.680 a right to pass safely if they pay a toll 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:43.920 payable encrypto currency or Chinese Ian. Some ships appear to 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:46.560 have certainly transited the Strait, but many more have not, 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:51.520 and this presents a serious issue for global trade. Luckily, 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:55.080 the problems with global trade have not affected our advertisers, 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:57.920 so here are some goods and services that will probably 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:10.480 cost more than they did a few weeks ago. The 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:12.439 United States has a lack of capacity when it comes 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:15.360 to mind sweeping. Many of the ships it does have 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.360 which can do that, but not currently very close to 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.079 the straitform moves. On the twelfth of April, it did 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.320 send two destroyers into the strait normally to begin mind 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:26.240 clearing operations, but these aren't really a sort of ships 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:27.920 that would do that so much as they would work 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:31.199 alongside the ships that do that to provide them with security. 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:33.319 There is currently a safe lane through the strait that 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:36.240 Iran seems to be sending ships through, but it's a 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.840 little unclear to what extent, if at all, the strait 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.760 is mind and what kind of minds were used. Naval 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.280 minds can vary. They can be pretty simple, contact fuse minds, 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.040 like the ones you might have seen in the Mind 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:51.720 Sweeper computer game or bottom Mine, triggered by a number 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:55.320 of mechanisms. Clearing a body of water this large would 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.839 take a significant amount of time. Stopping transits through the 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.319 Strait was not iran only response to the attacks. They 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:05.040 have launched a massive fuselade of one way drones and 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:09.160 missiles at targets across the region. Their Shahed drones one 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.040 of the most significant military innovations of the last decade. 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:16.840 They're cheap one way drones that can do tremendous damage 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.160 at a very low cost. If you've ever heard of 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.520 Shahed drone, you won't forget what they sound like. It's 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.679 like a lawnmow flying over you. These drones have been 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.640 so successful that the US has cloned captured drones to 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.360 make its own one way drones, which it calls Lucas drones, 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.960 and Iran has licensed production to Russia, which uses them 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.240 in massive numbers against Ukraine. These drones have provided a 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.320 cheap and relatively easy to launch platform for Iran strikes, 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:44.320 which is focused on US allies, Israel, and Bushure Kurdis 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:49.480 dan Bashur meaning Southern or Iraqi Kurdistan has taken a 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.040 particularly heavy toll. Much as this has been due to 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:54.959 reporting in the early days of the conflict, which began 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.559 with notorious fact check evader Barak Raved much as it's 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:02.240 reporting heavily and play or outright said that Kurdish ground 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:06.160 forces were repairing an assault into Iran. Raved's piece, which 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.680 reported that Trump had spoken to two major Curtis leaders, 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:13.760 was particularly shocking because it erroneously conflated Iraqi Kurds with 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:18.240 Iranian Kurds, those from Eastern Kurdistan and Rojalad. It's true 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.839 that the majority of anti regime Kurdish armed groups from 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:25.440 Iran retain bases in Iraq, but it's extremely unlikely that 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.120 the KDP in the p UK, the major actors in 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.680 Iraqi Kurdistan, will be storming the border into Roja Lat 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.720 anytime in the near future. However, I have spoken to 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.520 several of the Rojlati armed groups who are part of 0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:40.320 the alliance of political forces of Iranian Kurdistan. The groups 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.880 involved in a Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan or the PDKI, 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:48.880 the Free Life Party of Kurdistan PJAK, the Kurdistan Freedom 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:53.160 Party PAK, two of the Komala parties and hubbut or 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.400 the organization of the Iranian Kurdistan struggle. The alliance predates 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:00.560 the United States and Israeli campaign came around and earlier 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.800 this year Arash Saleh I spoke him for the PDKI 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:07.160 told me quote at this point, the whole coalition is 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.360 built upon some type of self rule, instide Iranian Kurdistan 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:12.760 as the main demand for all of them, and that 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:15.160 as a main demand for all the Kurdish people in 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:18.400 Iranian Kurdistan. This unity of groups is a positive step 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.560 and it represents a real opportunity for the liberation of 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.360 the people of Roja. But none of these parties are 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.640 willing to be the spearhead of an American and Israeli 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.840 offensive without guarantees that they will receive support for their 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.360 own goals, which are very different to those of the 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.920 USA and Israel. In more recent weeks, President Trump has 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.560 insinuated and Fox News has claimed that he said this, 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.600 but haven't seen any recording of it, that the United 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:44.320 States sent weapons to Iranian protesters through Kurdish groups, but 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.559 that the Kurdish groups kept them instead of giving them 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:50.160 to the protesters. Here's the clip of Trump implying this 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.000 and you'll have to forgive me for the jrringly awkward 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:54.640 light jazz background music here. 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:56.280 They don't have guns. 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:57.679 You know. We said some guns. 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.920 But the group that were supposed to give which I said, 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.240 what happened to my people? I said it. I called 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.840 it exactly. We said guns, a lot of guns. They 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:08.720 were supposed to go to. The people said they could 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.520 fight back against these ducks. You know what happened. The 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.720 people that they sent them to kept them because they said, 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.199 what a beautiful gun. I think I'll keep it. So 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.800 I'm very upset with a certain group of people, and 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.880 they're going to pay a big price for that. But 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:25.960 the Iranian people who will fight back as soon as 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:27.560 they know they're not going to be shot and as 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:29.640 soon as they can get weapons. 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.480 The Kurdish groups I've spoken to have denied this and 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.920 it's not really logistically feasible. Humno Kno's Bandy, a member 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.320 of the General Command of the Kurdistan National Army, which 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.720 is the peshmerger associated with the Kurdistan Freedom Party or PAK, 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:48.200 said that quote Donald Trump's message is unclear to us. 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.280 What is there is that we as our army have 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.160 in no way received weapons from the US or any 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.680 other country, not even a single bullet. And the PAK 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.640 confirmed that statement to me this morning. At the time 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:04.160 you're hearing this, that will be yesterday morning. I checked 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:07.440 in with them. Then transiting the mountains to that part 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.160 of Kurdistan and then smuggling weapons all the way to Tehran. 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:11.760 It's not what they do and it will be very 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.320 hard for them to do it. Also, at the time 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.560 of the large anti regime protestin around in January, we 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:22.320 saw groups, notably the PAK the Kurdistan Freedom Party using 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.360 weapons that really don't appear to be US supplied, like 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:30.160 pumpact and shotguns. Nonetheless, this rumor, combined with the fact 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.680 that Trump really did call Iraqi Kurdish leaders at the 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.880 start of the conflict, presumably to ask for support, has 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.920 led to a rax Kurdistan region been targeted a great deal. 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.600 These drone and rockets rights have not just hit military targets, 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:45.760 but also the refugee camps where the families displaced from 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.760 Roger Laut live and many other civilian targets in major 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:53.680 Kurdish cities. To quote a PDKI a statement quote, since 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:55.720 the beginning of the war with the United States in Israel. 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.320 The Islamic Republican of Run has so far targeted the 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:02.680 family camps, medical centers, and educational facilities of the Democratic 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.640 Party of Iranian Kurdistan with more than one hundred and 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:09.360 ten missiles inferance. These tags have continued even during the 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:13.720 ceasefire between Iran and the United States. But it's not 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.800 just Iraqi Kurdistan being bombed. In fact, i Rak has 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.400 a distinction of being the only country bomb by both 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:22.160 sides in the conflict. This is in part this is 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.920 Popular Mobilization Forces, sometimes referred to by the Arabic name 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:30.720 hashtal Shabi in Iraq, have strong ties to Iran. The 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:34.360 Popular Mobilization Forces or PMF if you're not familiar, were 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.320 formed in twenty fourteen and fought against Islamic State in Iraq, 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:40.240 but some factions within the PMF r als are now 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:43.760 listed to terrorist groups themselves by the United States. I 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.400 want to resist doing the rather purel Sunni Shia kurd 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.760 analysis here because I don't think it explains the whole situation, 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.800 and it's far too often seized upon by commentators seeking 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.760 to oversimplify things. Many Kurds are Sunni, for example, but 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:00.800 some are Shia. Some Curds are Christian or Jewish who 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.960 have no religious beliefs. There are other groups in the 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.200 region who are not Muslim or Christian. I think it's 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.119 unnecessarily reductionist, but nonetheless it is worth noting that the 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.800 PMF are mostly Shia, as is the ratiome in Iran. 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:18.320 The PMF have been using drones, rockets and mortars to 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:20.919 attack both the US bases and those of the Kurdish 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.320 Pesh Merger, who they see as tied to the US. 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.280 On the telegram channels, PMF groups have shown successful at 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:29.800 tanks of what used to be Camp Victory near the 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:34.399 Baghdad airport and against the US embassy facilities. While we 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.600 can talk to Rogularti groups and see PMF statements on telegram, 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.040 getting information on the conflict from inside Iran that's not 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:43.280 regime propaganda is very hard. An Internet blackout by the 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.840 Iranian government has lasted more than a month. The information 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:49.119 that we see coming out of Iran is either state 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.800 sanctioned or from people going to the border with Iraq 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.200 to get cell phone to signal, or from people using 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:59.760 satellite internet devices like Starling's. Iran has been actively hunting 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.520 people using starlings and further militarizing the Kurdistan region near 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:06.080 the Iraqi border where people might get cell phone signal. 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:11.920 Zenni Arbazizi and siavan Amini, a Kurdish couple, were arrested 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.199 on the seventh of March this year and they have 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.480 been detained ever since for the crime of using a starling. 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:22.080 This repressive capability is not unusual or unique ter Iranian Kurdistan. 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.119 I think we need to understand the structure of the 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.280 Iranian state to understand why it will be very hard 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.399 for the United States to achieve regime change simply with 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.879 an air campaign. Iran has a conventional army known as 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:48.720 the Arteesh. It also has the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.359 better known by the initials IRGC, which has a specific 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:57.119 remit of protecting the Islamic Republic. Within the IRGC, people 0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.720 may have heard of the Kutz Force. The Kutzforce sort 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.879 of acts like around CIA and green Berets combined by 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.080 assisting other actors, mainly nonstate actors in the region like 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:10.239 Husbola for example. Then there's also the Busiege, which is 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:14.200 an element of the IGC but is a paramilitary auxiliary 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:17.440 force with as many as half a million members available 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:21.000 for immediate call up and many more in reserve. The 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.000 busiege are in theory directly loyal to the Supreme Leader, 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:28.760 and they have participated in the significant oppression of the population. Combined, 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:33.080 these forces represent a massive apparatus for state violence that 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:37.320 is dispersed among the civilian population. Recent reports say they 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:41.159 are even garrising schools and other civilian buildings. While the 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:44.840 United States may, for example, have destroyed Iran's conventional navy 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.000 its big gray boats with the Iranian flag on them, 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:51.879 it has not and cannot destroy all the small civilian 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:55.520 craft that these groups could easily use to harass shipping 0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:59.960 or even plant sea mines, nor can destroy the men 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:03.720 any one way surface drone to Iran has along its coastline. 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.120 If you're not familiar with these, think of a remote 0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:11.120 control boat that explodes when it hits its target. Israel 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:15.520 has killed many ILGC figures, but many more LGC units 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.960 and besiegis remain untouched. Are willing to turn their weapons 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:22.840 on any potential uprising in the country. With this in mind, 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.840 let's talk a little bit more about those peace negotiations 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.840 that happened last weekend in Pakistan, and particularly let's talk 0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:34.399 about the composition of Iran's delegation. Amongst Iran's negotiators was 0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.240 Mohammed Jaffiri Sahra Rud, who participate in the murder of 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:43.199 doctor Abdul Rahman Ghassemlu during negotiations between the PDKI and 0:20:43.280 --> 0:20:49.160 Iran in nineteen eighty nine. Doctor Gasemlu had been a 0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:52.960 notable Kurdish leader for some time, was sentenced to death 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.480 by the Iranian regime and then kill when he came 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.600 to the negotiating table. In a statement sent to me, 0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:03.160 the pak said the composition of the Iranian delegation, largely 0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:06.439 made up of military and security figures, clearly indicates that 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.840 the primary objective was not to advance a genuine diplomatic process, 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:13.600 but rather to manage the situation in line with strategic goals. 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:17.000 It Ran seemed to achievely see negotiations as a way 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:19.720 to buy time. It's been able to dig out many 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:22.280 of its missiles which were buried but not destroyed by 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:24.760 its strikes, and in this pause it can shore up 0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.639 its pasture against domestic dissenters as well. It does not seem, 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:31.199 in short to be acting in the way the sharkan 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.480 or doctrine might suggest and hope that it would. Indeed, 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:36.560 in recent weeks, it's been able to mobilize civilians to 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:38.480 go two power plants in the hope that their presence 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:42.639 will prevent bombing of those facilities. Despite this, and despite 0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:46.000 it being a violation of various international treaties, some of 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:48.840 which Israel is not signed up to, Israel has continued 0:21:48.840 --> 0:21:52.399 to hit power plants, oil infrastructure, and bridges despite the 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:56.480 civilian costs. It certainly seems that after a weekend of 0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.800 negotiating face to face in Pakistan, the United States was 0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.240 not able to get what it wanted out of the negotiations. 0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:05.720 They have chosen not to accept our terms. Vice President J. D. 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:08.440 Vahn said, here's him talking about the negotiations at a 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.000 press conference on Sunday morning local time. 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:13.679 But the simple fact is that we need to see 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:17.800