WEBVTT - Levi CEO Says Company Is Meeting Challenges

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg clovel News. Shares of Levi. They are certainly

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<v Speaker 1>an outperformer, up almost nine percent in two day's session,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is after a third quarter sales top Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street expectations. The company also boosting its full year profit outlook,

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<v Speaker 1>authorized a two hundred million dollars share buyback program. So

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<v Speaker 1>great to have with us, Levi Strauss and Company CEO Chipberg, Hey, Chip,

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<v Speaker 1>so nice to have you here on Bloomberg. Um, how

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<v Speaker 1>are you And it seems like you guys had a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good quarter. Yeah, it was a great quarter. It's

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<v Speaker 1>great to be here with you, Carol, thank you very

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<v Speaker 1>much for having me. We're really pleased with the quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when you consider the macro economic headwinds that we've

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<v Speaker 1>been facing, supply chain challenges and everything else. Our team

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<v Speaker 1>around the world is just doing an exceptional job executing.

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<v Speaker 1>We've delivered sales growth of versus last year. But importantly, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we were up three versus pre pandemic, and um you

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<v Speaker 1>know we expect to be up versus in the fourth

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<v Speaker 1>quarter as well. So really good quarter on strong profit delivery.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, we've we've just done a great job

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<v Speaker 1>navigating all of the challenges that are facing the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>I can hear it in your voice. I think both

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I are looking at them. So tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about the challenges. I mean, what is it that you

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<v Speaker 1>can't get, What is it that you have to pay

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more for? Tell us about that? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you know, supply chain challenges have been in the

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<v Speaker 1>news and have affected really all of the soft line

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<v Speaker 1>UH and apparel stocks over the last three three months

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<v Speaker 1>or so. UH pork challenges are obviously an issue. COVID

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<v Speaker 1>is impacting a number of countries in Asia. Many factories

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<v Speaker 1>are shut down. But what we've got going for us.

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<v Speaker 1>Is I actually believe our global supply chain is a

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<v Speaker 1>competitive advantage. UM. We have a huge amount of scale. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We source. We made a decision a long long time

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<v Speaker 1>ago that we were not going to put all of

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<v Speaker 1>our eggs in one basket. UM. We source from twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four different countries. No country represents more than our total

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<v Speaker 1>volume UM. And we also cross source. About half of

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<v Speaker 1>all of our volume is crosssource, meaning we could make

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<v Speaker 1>that same product in different factories in different countries, which

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<v Speaker 1>gives us an incredible amount of agility. So that if

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<v Speaker 1>a factory shuts down unfortunately because of COVID, we've can

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<v Speaker 1>quickly move that production h to somewhere else that's still operating.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's given us a ton of agility. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>just to dimensionalize that, the vietnamsment in the news a

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<v Speaker 1>lot here lately. UM, we're importing less than four percent

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<v Speaker 1>of our product right now from Vietnam UM UH and

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<v Speaker 1>so that's that's big. We've also been really agile on

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<v Speaker 1>the on the shipping front. In fact, we've locked up

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<v Speaker 1>about sevent our shipping through the first half of next

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<v Speaker 1>year of the compacity that we need UH. And we've

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<v Speaker 1>been able to, you know, ship deliveries from the West

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<v Speaker 1>coast to the East coast given the West coast court challenges.

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<v Speaker 1>So our diversified supply chain and the team that we've

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<v Speaker 1>got really is a big competitive advantage. We left, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we did one and a half billion dollars of revenue

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<v Speaker 1>in the quarter. We left ten million dollars of revenue

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<v Speaker 1>on the table from unfilled orders. Really a great really

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<v Speaker 1>a great job. Common prices have surge year of a year,

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<v Speaker 1>according to Bloomberg in Intelligence, shipping prices I know for

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<v Speaker 1>you have increased. You did say yesterday, levis indicated that

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<v Speaker 1>you have pricing power and you're able to pass on

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<v Speaker 1>some of these increased costs that you face two consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>How much pricing power do you have? How much more

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<v Speaker 1>our customer is going to pay for their levis? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of things to first of all, Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's it's clear inflation is here. And it's not just cotton,

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<v Speaker 1>it's everything. It's labor costs, it's shipping costs, it's truck costs,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's really everywhere. Um. We saw it coming over

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago and we took pricing. We've been taking

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<v Speaker 1>pricing for the last year. Our au R s are

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<v Speaker 1>up pretty significantly over the last two years, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>because we saw inflation coming and we've been pricing ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of inflation and have been successful. It's sticking and so

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of that, and that's part of the reason

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing such high gross margins fifty seven and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent gross margins this past quarter. We've been in

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<v Speaker 1>the fifty seven's for the last three quarters, UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's because as we've successfully passed on pricing. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>buy cotton, we buy fabric from mills, and we've already

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<v Speaker 1>negotiated our cost of good soul through the first half

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<v Speaker 1>of two with a low single digit one percent cost

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<v Speaker 1>inflation built into our cost of goods. We're in the

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<v Speaker 1>midst of negotiating for the second half. I expect that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be higher. Obviously, given what's happening to cotton,

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<v Speaker 1>we're expecting it's gonna be somewhere in the mid single

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<v Speaker 1>digit area. UM. If it's more than that, we may

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<v Speaker 1>have to take additional pricing, but priced ahead of inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>and feel that we're in a pretty good place right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We're also confident in the strength of the brand that

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<v Speaker 1>if we need to take more pricing, we can do

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<v Speaker 1>that very surgically and and you know, and recover the

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<v Speaker 1>higher costs to maintain your margins basically exactly. Hey, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>you said, I thought it was interesting to have you said, um,

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<v Speaker 1>that you saw inflation coming about two years go. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you saying that there were problems in the supply chain

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<v Speaker 1>pre pandemic, because I think this speaks to we are

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<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out inflation transitory or not. Right, it's

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<v Speaker 1>the big big question of the day. What would you

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<v Speaker 1>say someone who has to manage your supply chain so carefully?

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<v Speaker 1>Is this a bigger deal that lasts that stays with

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<v Speaker 1>us longer. Yeah, it wasn't really two years ago we

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<v Speaker 1>saw coming. It was about right, kind of coincidental with

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and the lockdowns. We knew that there was

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<v Speaker 1>already going to be pressure from a labor standpoint. We

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<v Speaker 1>were seeing that here in the US in particular. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I know there's a lot of debate about

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<v Speaker 1>whether inflation is transitory or not. I personally believe it's

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<v Speaker 1>here to stay. And that's why we started taking pricing

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<v Speaker 1>action early. Is you know, instead of a big, huge

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<v Speaker 1>leap and prices. It's it's better to get the consumer

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<v Speaker 1>there slowly over a series of price increases, and and

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<v Speaker 1>and so we got going on it early, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're out ahead of the curve. Are a U

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<v Speaker 1>R s are up kind of in the mid high

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<v Speaker 1>single digit area versus a year ago and two years ago. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>so I believe it's here to say. I mean, we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at higher labor cost. Wage wages are going up

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<v Speaker 1>pretty significantly around the world. There's shortage of of labor

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<v Speaker 1>for different types of skills. So I think we're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at this for at least the next couple of years.

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<v Speaker 1>Really quickly, ten seconds, am I gonna troll getting my

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<v Speaker 1>Levi's for Christmas? Now there will be Leavis underneath your

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas tree. We're spending more on air freight this quarter

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<v Speaker 1>than we'll we typically do in a normal year. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna do everything we can to make sure we service

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<v Speaker 1>the demand that is out there. We're chasing inventory right now.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, I jokingly say we're spending so much

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<v Speaker 1>on air freight, we could probably buy a seven board

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<v Speaker 1>and seven Funny it's under your tree, and I hope

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<v Speaker 1>you'll be giving lots of levives for others to under

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<v Speaker 1>their tree. Got it, got it well here Sant has

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<v Speaker 1>done well in the stock market, so he can afford

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<v Speaker 1>to uh spend a little bit more to get it

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<v Speaker 1>all here. Hey, listen, thank you so much to come

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<v Speaker 1>back soon, because your story is an incredible one. Levi

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<v Speaker 1>Strauss and Company CEO Chipberg. This story, the story the

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<v Speaker 1>stock also one of the outperformers of the day. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So this week's cover story,

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<v Speaker 1>it also happens to be today's Bloomberg Big Take on

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Terminal. It is about tether. It's the world's

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<v Speaker 1>most popular stable coin. Is a type of cryptocurrency that

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<v Speaker 1>is favored by traders to mainly because it's backed by

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<v Speaker 1>really U S dollars. Yeah, but where maybe not? Is

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<v Speaker 1>it backed by US real real U S dollars? That's

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<v Speaker 1>the question. It's this week's cover story. Joining us now

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<v Speaker 1>is Zeke Fox. He's a financial investigations reporter at Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio is he.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't even know where the start. We have inspector gadget,

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<v Speaker 1>a retired plastic surgeon, a star of the Mighty Ducks,

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<v Speaker 1>all being characters in a story that trails multiple continents. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's it's been a mystery for years. There's always

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<v Speaker 1>been this cryptocurrency called tether that's worth a dollar because

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<v Speaker 1>each coin is supposedly backed by a dollar in the bank.

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<v Speaker 1>But there have always been these critics who are saying,

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<v Speaker 1>where are these dollars? Really? Does this company really have

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<v Speaker 1>the money it claims? And this year they've been printing

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<v Speaker 1>like a crazy amount of tether's, so there's now sixty

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<v Speaker 1>nine billion of them, which means the company is supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to have sixty billion of real dollars somewhere, of real

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<v Speaker 1>US cash. It needs to be backed by real US

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<v Speaker 1>cash exactly. That's what they've promised. And I went out

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<v Speaker 1>to try and figure out, all, right, where is this money,

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<v Speaker 1>what have they done with it? On how much of

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<v Speaker 1>it did you find? Chill Webber, joining US editor about

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week, was a little disappointed because I was hoping

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<v Speaker 1>there would just be like a pile of gold somewhere,

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<v Speaker 1>but I realized that that's not uh, that's not really

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<v Speaker 1>how how money work. Yeah. Um. But it turns out

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<v Speaker 1>that they're one of the biggest banks is down in

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<v Speaker 1>the Bahamas, and I went and met with the chairman

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<v Speaker 1>of the bank. It's called Dell Tech, and he said

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<v Speaker 1>that they hold about fifteen billion I think he said

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<v Speaker 1>of the of the sixty nine, but he's not quite sure.

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<v Speaker 1>He can't speak for He said that money safe, it's

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<v Speaker 1>here with us, but he can't speak for the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of it. Um. So I mean, the reason this is

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<v Speaker 1>really important is that, uh, tether is sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>at the center of the cryptocurrency world. You might think

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of like pointless, like why would you even

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<v Speaker 1>want a cryptocurrency that wasn't going to make you rich? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>But this is the one that you use to send

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<v Speaker 1>money from one exchange to the other to place your

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<v Speaker 1>bets at the exchange. Essentially, if you think of the

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<v Speaker 1>cryptocurrency exchanges as like giant casinos, these are the chips,

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<v Speaker 1>and all the casinos make you get the same chips,

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<v Speaker 1>which are tethers. So it's like the connection between all

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<v Speaker 1>the different parts of the cryptocurrency world. And so if

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<v Speaker 1>these coins aren't worth one dollar. It could throw all

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<v Speaker 1>these markets out of whack, would be like a huge

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<v Speaker 1>deal for for all of crypto worth mentioning what he

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<v Speaker 1>did before he was a Bahamed bahamaed binker. Yes, so

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<v Speaker 1>very impressive, dude, Jean Chalapin, the chairman of Deltech. He

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<v Speaker 1>actually the first big success was creating the cartoon about

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<v Speaker 1>the cyborg cop inspector gadget or cyboards with my childhood. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>um world. So he got he got very rich from

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<v Speaker 1>from that and making also some other cartoons. He uh

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<v Speaker 1>sold his studio, moved to the Bahamas, where he bought

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<v Speaker 1>this beautiful pink colonial mansion that you probably saw in

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<v Speaker 1>the James Bond Foam Casino Royale. It was the it

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<v Speaker 1>was the it was the villains. It was the villain's

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<v Speaker 1>house in that and it's certainly nice enough to be that.

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<v Speaker 1>And he then bought this bank in the Bahamas. And

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the whole thing is kind of is hugely

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<v Speaker 1>hard to wrap your mind around, but essentially tether needs

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<v Speaker 1>to have it needs banks. It needs banks to hold

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<v Speaker 1>money because people send tether real money to get the

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 1>tether coins. And they've had a lot of trouble over

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<v Speaker 1>the years finding banks that will do business with them,

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<v Speaker 1>because a lot of banks have just not wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>do business with cryptocurrency companies in general. And so he

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<v Speaker 1>this Dell Tech Bank of the Bahamas was one of

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<v Speaker 1>the few that would and really save them at a

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<v Speaker 1>time when they were struggling to figure out what to

0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>do with their money. Might this be a Ponti scheme?

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>So that's what some of the harshest critics have said.

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:10.559
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the information that I got is that, um,

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>they are taking this money and investing it, and rather

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>than it just being totally a giant scam, it's all

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 1>made up. It's more about a conflict of interest where

0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>when you buy a tether coin, you really want it

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.680
<v Speaker 1>to be safe. You really want to get your dollar

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:33.520
<v Speaker 1>back no matter what if you uh yeah, But if

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 1>you're the it turns out that the the way it structured,

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.120
<v Speaker 1>the owner of the tether company, he's not sitting on

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.400
<v Speaker 1>sixty billion dollars. He can invest that money in different things,

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.720
<v Speaker 1>and any earnings on those investments go to him. So

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 1>even if he earns like one that's six and ninety

0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:56.600
<v Speaker 1>million dollars, and uh, there's not much expenses in running

0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 1>this company. It's a really small operation, so his incentive

0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:02.959
<v Speaker 1>is to invest in weird stuff to try and make

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.120
<v Speaker 1>some money. And what I found was that in fact,

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>a fair amount of it billions was invested in Chinese

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>commercial paper, which is kind of like, uh, something that

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 1>people on Wall Street really avoid. Like there's a most

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>commercial papers held by money market funds and they just

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.360
<v Speaker 1>basically will not buy Chinese commercial paper. There's very few

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:29.480
<v Speaker 1>of them have much of it. Um So this is

0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>like a big risk. So what's at risk for crypto

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 1>and maybe the rest of us if you can't trust tether?

0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:43.320
<v Speaker 1>So all of the on some of the biggest exchanges

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 1>to the trades are denominated in tether, and it's becomes

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.560
<v Speaker 1>so natural that people almost forget it. But like you're

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 1>buying your bitcoin versus tether, and so if the if

0:14:55.400 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 1>people no longer trusted tether, they would all, uh, I

0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 1>want to dump tether for to buy whatever they could

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>with it before if they're worried that like it could

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.120
<v Speaker 1>go to zero. Um. So it kind of bizarrely on

0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 1>those exchanges, it would probably drive up the price of

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 1>cryptos in a short term, but it would it would

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:22.440
<v Speaker 1>be uh uh, at least in tether terms um, but

0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>it'd be like a huge disruption because still, even like

0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:30.400
<v Speaker 1>almost a decade into this whole cryptocurrency boom, a huge

0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>part of the economy, the crypto economy rests on these

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:38.840
<v Speaker 1>weird stable coins instead of real dollars, and it's something

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 1>that the traders kind of take for granted. But like, well,

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 1>stable coin like talk about the messaging there, and we

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 1>think that there could be uh some news in the

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>near future out of DC around stable coins, right just quickly. Yeah,

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:59.720
<v Speaker 1>so there's like uh Treasury Department commissioned a report about

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 1>state bookcoins all. Basically every financial regulator has said somebody's

0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:06.880
<v Speaker 1>got to do something about this, and it's not clear

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 1>exactly what they're gonna do, but it seems unlikely that

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>they'll just uh let it ride. Where you have the

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 1>whole cryptocurrency world relying on this unregulated sixty nine billion

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:21.840
<v Speaker 1>dollar quasi bank thing called tether well on the money

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.320
<v Speaker 1>trail from Taiwan to Puerto Rico, the French revie of

0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>mainland China and the Bahamas. He didn't go to all

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 1>the places, but he didn't go to some. It is

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 1>an amazing story. It's the cover story of Bloomberg Business

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. Zeke Fox, financial investigations reporter here at Bloomberg News,

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 1>along with Joeld Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Check

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 1>it out. It's the new issue of Business Week. You're

0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.160
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.440
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, we told

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:50.400
<v Speaker 1>you about some of the COVID headlines that were in

0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.440
<v Speaker 1>the stories that we are following, specifically the story about

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:57.160
<v Speaker 1>heart damage and rocking COVID survivors a year after the

0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.880
<v Speaker 1>after they get infected. Joining us now is senior scholar

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 1>from John's Hawkins Center for Health Security and the Bloomberg

0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.320
<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health. Dr g g. Gronville joins us

0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Baltimore. Dr Gronvall, It's great to

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.080
<v Speaker 1>have you back with us. One thing that I've been

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.840
<v Speaker 1>thinking a lot about when it comes to UH, when

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 1>it comes to where we are in the pandemic, is

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.439
<v Speaker 1>testing and the evolution of testing. And we did hear

0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>from the Biden administration that they are making a significant

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.520
<v Speaker 1>push to increase the availability of home tests this week,

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.040
<v Speaker 1>and I wonder to what extent you think that that

0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:28.800
<v Speaker 1>will help us get to the other side of the

0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:34.639
<v Speaker 1>pandemic if we can easily get home tests. Yeah. So

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:39.120
<v Speaker 1>home testing is really important and I think, um it's

0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:43.200
<v Speaker 1>been uh demanded by lots of people. Um that's why

0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:46.119
<v Speaker 1>you haven't seen them on the shelves recently. UM. So

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:50.400
<v Speaker 1>this move to increase manufacturing and to you know, get

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:53.159
<v Speaker 1>more than them a little bit more cheap so that

0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:55.880
<v Speaker 1>people can actually afford to use them, um will be

0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.879
<v Speaker 1>a really welcome change. And it's something that other countries

0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.399
<v Speaker 1>been doing, so it's really good that the US is

0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.680
<v Speaker 1>finally doing this as well. Okay, help me understand though.

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.360
<v Speaker 1>These are not PCR tests that we will have access

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 1>to at home, right, No, No, they these are a

0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:15.199
<v Speaker 1>tests that um that look for the look for the

0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.360
<v Speaker 1>amount of virus basically that you have in your nose

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:21.320
<v Speaker 1>at that moment. So you get a result umty minutes

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>depending on the test after you take it. And so

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:28.600
<v Speaker 1>it's really it doesn't have the amplification step that PCR has,

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.320
<v Speaker 1>so that it can't it can't detect like really weak

0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.600
<v Speaker 1>signals and tell you that you might be infectious in

0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.240
<v Speaker 1>two or three days, but it can tell you if

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 1>you're infectious right now, which is really a key thing

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.160
<v Speaker 1>for public health. I do think that's a challenge. Carol

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:45.200
<v Speaker 1>and I are, you know, traveling for the first time

0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.320
<v Speaker 1>in a long time, and we have to get a

0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 1>PCR test within what a certain number of hours before

0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.040
<v Speaker 1>we go to this event. I think it's like three days,

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 1>two or three days. Well, And I have to say

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 1>I was googling last night and this morning and looking

0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.760
<v Speaker 1>at boosters and what the CDC says about who's allowed

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:01.920
<v Speaker 1>to it, and it says, you know, if you are

0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 1>likely to be around a population where you increase your

0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.720
<v Speaker 1>chance maybe if I think getting COVID. I was, I

0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 1>really was trying to understand because I have to say,

0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little I'm coming to the six month point

0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:19.280
<v Speaker 1>of my second vaccination and trying to understand. I really

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 1>don't want to be one of those people who really

0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:25.159
<v Speaker 1>aren't approved at this point to go get a third shot.

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:27.440
<v Speaker 1>But I am thinking about it. Do I need to

0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 1>be concerned? And some of what I've read is said

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.439
<v Speaker 1>you've got immunity and your body has this great memory

0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>response that if you do get COVID, it will react

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.879
<v Speaker 1>and take care of you so that you won't be hospitalized.

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:41.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's the science behind it. But nonetheless, I

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 1>get a little nervous when people say, even if you

0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:47.760
<v Speaker 1>get COVID there could be long haul UM complications. That

0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:51.160
<v Speaker 1>freaks me out. What's your advice to all of us? Yeah,

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's important for people to not overthink this.

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:57.560
<v Speaker 1>And we don't have a supply issue right now, so UM,

0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.040
<v Speaker 1>you know there there if you get a shot, do

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>you get a booster shot? It's not like that shot

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.440
<v Speaker 1>UM would have gone to somebody else who really needed it.

0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 1>There's really good data to support UM older people UH

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.840
<v Speaker 1>to to get the booster shot. That that's clear, that's UM.

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:16.920
<v Speaker 1>The science is there for that. It's a little murkier

0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 1>for people who are not seniors UM, whether or not

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 1>they need it. But these are safe and effective vaccines. UM.

0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, if if if you think that you might

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.160
<v Speaker 1>UM at least give you a piece of mind, then

0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:34.119
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and get it. Because because the guidance right

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:37.880
<v Speaker 1>now is so broad UM that you know, you probably

0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:42.080
<v Speaker 1>are encountering people who you are being being put into

0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:45.000
<v Speaker 1>positions where you might be UM at higher risk. Who

0:20:45.000 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 1>knows UM, But you know, there's it's not like, it's

0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:51.040
<v Speaker 1>not like there's a supply issue at stake here. Is

0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:53.919
<v Speaker 1>it a mistake that there's not more clear federal guidelines

0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:56.159
<v Speaker 1>and guidance on who should get these and when they should?

0:20:56.160 --> 0:20:57.960
<v Speaker 1>And I asked because I know people who are work

0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.040
<v Speaker 1>in education who are in their thirties and doctors in

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>the thirties who have or are getting boosters soon, But

0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:05.880
<v Speaker 1>people in their fifties or sixties who don't haven't gotten

0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:09.840
<v Speaker 1>any guidance about it. Right, Yeah, I think they left.

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.040
<v Speaker 1>So there's the science, and then there's a limit to

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 1>what you can say based on the science. And then

0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:18.360
<v Speaker 1>there's the policy decision, which is that you know, right

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:20.920
<v Speaker 1>now the door is kind of open for people who

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:23.919
<v Speaker 1>want to have a booster to have it. So, yeah,

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.960
<v Speaker 1>it is. It is vague, but they have been as

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>clear as they can about what the science supports. And

0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 1>I agree it's it's it's vague, but it's nobody is

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.399
<v Speaker 1>going to be, I think, prohibited from getting a booster

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.520
<v Speaker 1>as long as there's six months out from their second shot.

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:41.159
<v Speaker 1>All right, that's good guidance because we were we were

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.680
<v Speaker 1>really wondering about it. Hey, how often do you there's

0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:46.600
<v Speaker 1>been some great research that our team has done about

0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the next wave, the fourth wave COVID nineteen. Uh, the

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.880
<v Speaker 1>immune escape variants. How many conversations are you guys having

0:21:55.880 --> 0:22:00.400
<v Speaker 1>at Hopkins about that? And just got about forty five seconds? Sure, So, um,

0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:03.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, every time the virus replicates with the chance

0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 1>to mutate, so you have to worry that there's going

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:09.199
<v Speaker 1>to be additional variants. Um, right now, we can just

0:22:09.240 --> 0:22:11.880
<v Speaker 1>need to do what we can to get transmission under control.

0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.840
<v Speaker 1>So that means unvaccinated you need to get vaccinated. We

0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:18.400
<v Speaker 1>need more testing so that people who are infectious can

0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:22.240
<v Speaker 1>limit their possibility to spread. So, um, we just have

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.439
<v Speaker 1>to keep doing what we're doing, and globally it's not easy.

0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:30.600
<v Speaker 1>This is the hardest pandemic I've ever been exactly. Hey,

0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:33.440
<v Speaker 1>Dr Gronville, thank you so much. We appreciate your time

0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:36.520
<v Speaker 1>and everybody over at Hopkins for really helping create so

0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:39.160
<v Speaker 1>much and clarity for us on this subject. She's Senior

0:22:39.160 --> 0:22:41.520
<v Speaker 1>Scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Bloomberg

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:44.320
<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder,

0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:47.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ALP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. On the phone from Baltimore,

0:22:47.200 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 1>So are you convinced you're gonna get a Yeah, you're

0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:52.399
<v Speaker 1>gonna do it and get that. I'm thinking about it

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:55.080
<v Speaker 1>getting that booster because it is kind of vague, and

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:57.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking we're gonna be around a ton of I'm

0:22:57.320 --> 0:22:58.520
<v Speaker 1>going to be around a lot of people in the

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:00.679
<v Speaker 1>next month. Did you get on a Fridays of Saturdays?

0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:03.080
<v Speaker 1>You don't feel great? Okay, we'll talk about the suraday.

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Bloomberg I'm road, yeah, but you

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:11.479
<v Speaker 1>let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, this is

0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:15.720
<v Speaker 1>not a twin home A right, please, I'll do good

0:23:15.760 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 1>riding revels. I want to drive? Which good question? Drive?

0:23:25.440 --> 0:23:31.879
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe dawn on Bloomberg Radio.

0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:35.360
<v Speaker 1>Isn't heed Friday's eve? The next stay at the beginning? Well,

0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:37.359
<v Speaker 1>that's because your mind is still thinking that, you know,

0:23:37.560 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Thursday's go Friday. I'm working on that with the team

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:44.600
<v Speaker 1>Suggestion Box. Watching the market trade, your Charlie say that

0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:47.240
<v Speaker 1>we are coming off our highs. We're definitely have moved

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 1>down in the last hour or so, but still higher

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:52.760
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to those major equity average. So let's

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 1>get to it. Charles Lemonids is founder and chief investment

0:23:55.760 --> 0:23:58.719
<v Speaker 1>officer at the investment manager Value Works. They focus, as

0:23:58.760 --> 0:24:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you would expect, on a value to the plan. He

0:24:00.840 --> 0:24:02.960
<v Speaker 1>joins us once again on the phone in New York City.

0:24:03.000 --> 0:24:05.760
<v Speaker 1>How are you very good? Thank you very much for

0:24:05.800 --> 0:24:09.159
<v Speaker 1>having me. Well, we have seen some interesting market gyrations.

0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:11.840
<v Speaker 1>There's definitely a bit more volatility back into the market.

0:24:12.560 --> 0:24:14.680
<v Speaker 1>But we have seen what three days of gains now

0:24:14.680 --> 0:24:19.040
<v Speaker 1>on the S and P five hundred. What's your outlook here, Charles. Yeah,

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:21.640
<v Speaker 1>we've seen three days of gains UM, but we've seen

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 1>a really rough September coming into those three days of gains.

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:28.800
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, my view is that the past month and

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 1>a half we've sort of consolidated UM the big upward

0:24:32.320 --> 0:24:34.800
<v Speaker 1>move we had earlier in the year. Markets have been

0:24:34.840 --> 0:24:38.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of churning at these higher levels UM gave giving

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:40.399
<v Speaker 1>back a little and now maybe making a push to

0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:43.520
<v Speaker 1>new highs. Look, it was really important to have the

0:24:44.520 --> 0:24:48.120
<v Speaker 1>noise out of Washington toned down a little bit. UM.

0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:50.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, as we get close to debt ceiling UM

0:24:50.560 --> 0:24:54.560
<v Speaker 1>and these budget um crisis moments, you know, the markets

0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:56.840
<v Speaker 1>tend to stall. We've pushed that off a little bit

0:24:56.880 --> 0:24:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and our investors can start focusing on what's happening in

0:24:59.240 --> 0:25:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the real economy, what is happening in the real economy,

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:04.200
<v Speaker 1>and we get the jobs for tomorrow, economists expecting five

0:25:04.640 --> 0:25:07.680
<v Speaker 1>thousand um, that would be, that would be that would

0:25:07.680 --> 0:25:11.440
<v Speaker 1>look pretty good, that's right, And you know that that's

0:25:11.440 --> 0:25:13.520
<v Speaker 1>a big number for for us. We're going to care

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 1>about that a lot, and it means a lot um.

0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:17.879
<v Speaker 1>And then right after that we're gonna start hearing a

0:25:17.880 --> 0:25:21.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of earnings releases from companies. And the sum was

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:24.960
<v Speaker 1>very interesting because things were really percolating along very very

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:27.840
<v Speaker 1>well for the economy until the sort of mid late

0:25:27.920 --> 0:25:31.000
<v Speaker 1>August and into September, when the impact of what was

0:25:31.040 --> 0:25:33.720
<v Speaker 1>happening in the COVID crisis in the delta variant really

0:25:33.800 --> 0:25:37.000
<v Speaker 1>hit the economy and you saw that in some retailers

0:25:37.080 --> 0:25:39.840
<v Speaker 1>results that have already come out so far. But we're

0:25:39.840 --> 0:25:41.959
<v Speaker 1>gonna hear a lot more from companies, you know, as

0:25:42.000 --> 0:25:44.280
<v Speaker 1>earnings releases come out next week in the week after.

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:47.800
<v Speaker 1>Talking about whether that was a six weeks bump in

0:25:47.800 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 1>the economy and whether things are already re accelerating, which

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:54.679
<v Speaker 1>I sort of think is the most likely case, or

0:25:54.720 --> 0:25:57.920
<v Speaker 1>if that that little bit of a slowdown is broughtening out,

0:25:58.920 --> 0:26:02.439
<v Speaker 1>My sense is that we're seeing past the worst of

0:26:02.480 --> 0:26:06.119
<v Speaker 1>the of the delta variant disruption to the economy, and

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:08.200
<v Speaker 1>so I think you could be hearing from companies next

0:26:08.200 --> 0:26:11.399
<v Speaker 1>week and the week after that earnings for the for

0:26:11.440 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 1>the last quarter. We're good, that inflation is picking up

0:26:14.600 --> 0:26:17.040
<v Speaker 1>in their businesses, that there's a lot of demand and

0:26:17.080 --> 0:26:18.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of growth in front of us, of course,

0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 1>until the fourth wave happens and then we get those

0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:23.240
<v Speaker 1>variants that the vaccines. Sorry, I don't mean to be

0:26:23.280 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 1>such a bummer, but you are our San Fizzelli, really

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:29.480
<v Speaker 1>smart writing about this. I'm sorry, what do you I mean,

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:32.880
<v Speaker 1>do we need to think about that or just deal

0:26:32.920 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 1>with it when and if it happens, and hopefully it doesn't,

0:26:35.880 --> 0:26:38.280
<v Speaker 1>we do need to think about it. But you know,

0:26:38.359 --> 0:26:41.439
<v Speaker 1>two years ago when this all started, um, you know,

0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:44.000
<v Speaker 1>there were people saying, hey, you know, sometimes these pandemics

0:26:44.040 --> 0:26:46.439
<v Speaker 1>go on a couple of years. Um, here we are,

0:26:46.480 --> 0:26:49.199
<v Speaker 1>and here we are two years in, and you know,

0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:51.399
<v Speaker 1>maybe this is the end of it, you know, And

0:26:51.520 --> 0:26:53.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look, I've been thinking it was the end

0:26:53.359 --> 0:26:55.159
<v Speaker 1>of it for you know, six weeks in front of us,

0:26:55.200 --> 0:26:57.479
<v Speaker 1>for the past two years, so you know, it may

0:26:57.560 --> 0:27:01.280
<v Speaker 1>or may not be um contra done in six weeks?

0:27:01.320 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 1>Have be done in six weeks? Well, I do, though

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:05.879
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder. You know, we we talked a lot

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 1>about the quote unquote new normal, and at least the

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:10.200
<v Speaker 1>way that I'm thinking about a lot of my friends

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:12.560
<v Speaker 1>are thinking about it. We're learning to live with it.

0:27:12.720 --> 0:27:14.959
<v Speaker 1>And it's not great, like I don't like, you know,

0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 1>getting my son tested every week and you know, waiting

0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.399
<v Speaker 1>in line to do that. But we do that and

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:21.440
<v Speaker 1>then we go on with our day and we continue

0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 1>to buy things, and we continue to go visit friends,

0:27:24.280 --> 0:27:28.040
<v Speaker 1>and we're careful. But we have adapted, and I think

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:31.000
<v Speaker 1>people have adapted and they've adapted their spending habits as

0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:33.440
<v Speaker 1>a result. I think the question is do they get

0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:35.960
<v Speaker 1>back to work? And do they go back to work?

0:27:36.600 --> 0:27:38.840
<v Speaker 1>And that's where half a million jobs, you know, in

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:41.160
<v Speaker 1>the month of September would be an interesting data point.

0:27:41.320 --> 0:27:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I think the answer is yes. The other thing that

0:27:43.800 --> 0:27:48.480
<v Speaker 1>we've seen that's been very, very concrete is that economic demand,

0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:52.880
<v Speaker 1>demand for goods and services has been pretty robust. And

0:27:53.040 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 1>it's not because we are aren't impacted by the COVID epidemic.

0:27:56.520 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 1>It's because we've had a tremendous amount of stimulus from

0:28:00.000 --> 0:28:03.080
<v Speaker 1>a federal government, both in monetary and fiscal policy. So

0:28:03.400 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, we've got dollars in our pockets and we

0:28:06.119 --> 0:28:08.439
<v Speaker 1>want to spend them. And you know, the challenge for

0:28:08.520 --> 0:28:11.320
<v Speaker 1>companies is being able to deliver the cars that we want,

0:28:11.400 --> 0:28:15.400
<v Speaker 1>the boats that we wanted over the summertime, um and

0:28:15.400 --> 0:28:18.480
<v Speaker 1>and so you're seeing pressure on all sorts of costs

0:28:19.160 --> 0:28:21.879
<v Speaker 1>and you're probably going to see a lot more of

0:28:21.920 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 1>that in the weeks ahead in these earning results. So, Charles,

0:28:25.280 --> 0:28:30.800
<v Speaker 1>if we get that five print on non farm payrolls tomorrow,

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:35.240
<v Speaker 1>that would be a strong indicator of the strength and

0:28:35.280 --> 0:28:38.720
<v Speaker 1>the economy and jobs coming back. At the same time,

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:41.720
<v Speaker 1>it would also lend more support to the FED easing

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>back when it comes to asset purchases. And maybe you know,

0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 1>at some point they'll start to think, you know, get

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.440
<v Speaker 1>get more specific about when rates start to go higher.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:55.479
<v Speaker 1>How might though, was strong jobs report translate into the

0:28:55.560 --> 0:28:59.400
<v Speaker 1>equity trade tomorrow. Well, you know, your point is a

0:28:59.560 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 1>very very good one, because that's exactly what is on

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:06.840
<v Speaker 1>everyone's mind. Will the FED be as accommodative as they

0:29:06.880 --> 0:29:10.479
<v Speaker 1>said they're going to be or will they again, you know,

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:15.440
<v Speaker 1>start tightening conditions a little too quickly. They've been telling

0:29:15.560 --> 0:29:17.800
<v Speaker 1>us that they're going to stay loose for long, and

0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:20.840
<v Speaker 1>I am inclined to believe them. I think the FED

0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 1>is likely to let this economy run really hot for

0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:29.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, another year or so before they you know,

0:29:29.360 --> 0:29:32.640
<v Speaker 1>at all starts to pull in the reins. And and

0:29:32.680 --> 0:29:35.200
<v Speaker 1>in my experience, it takes a couple of years before

0:29:35.240 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>FED tightening actually hits the economy, you know, reacts to

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:43.560
<v Speaker 1>two news of FED tightening really fast. But what tends

0:29:43.560 --> 0:29:46.080
<v Speaker 1>to happen is that the economy continues to to move

0:29:46.680 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 1>aggressively um expanding, and so then the market catches up

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:53.520
<v Speaker 1>to the economy. And and it takes a couple of

0:29:53.640 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 1>years for FED tightening to slow economic growth. So I

0:29:57.200 --> 0:29:59.360
<v Speaker 1>think we could have economic growth for four more years,

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:02.000
<v Speaker 1>s just real quick in the last thirty seconds that

0:30:02.040 --> 0:30:03.400
<v Speaker 1>we have. How hot do you think the Fed is

0:30:03.400 --> 0:30:05.600
<v Speaker 1>willing to let the economy run? Steve Minustian telling around

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:07.560
<v Speaker 1>David Weston earlier today that he's worried this is going

0:30:07.560 --> 0:30:09.440
<v Speaker 1>to be ongoing inflation and we could end up with

0:30:09.520 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>three point five percent ten year treasuries. Well, look, if

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:15.440
<v Speaker 1>that happens, you better not be a treasuries and you

0:30:15.520 --> 0:30:17.320
<v Speaker 1>better not be in cash. So I guess you better

0:30:17.360 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>be in equities, you know, if that's the environment we

0:30:20.880 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 1>go into, you know, I think you get a return

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:26.000
<v Speaker 1>on equities next year, and I think that's a very

0:30:26.120 --> 0:30:29.160
<v Speaker 1>very real risk. Yeah, it's all timing and how this

0:30:29.200 --> 0:30:31.400
<v Speaker 1>all plays. And as you said, uh, FED policy is

0:30:31.440 --> 0:30:35.000
<v Speaker 1>a delayed impact. But certainly investor psychology about what the

0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>Fed may do, even if it's not actually happening, can

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:40.960
<v Speaker 1>certainly also impact the trade. We've seen that before. Hey, Charles,

0:30:41.000 --> 0:30:43.360
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Charles Lemonides, he's founder and chief

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:46.680
<v Speaker 1>investment officer at Value Works on the phone in New

0:30:46.800 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 1>York City. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:53.840
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0:30:53.880 --> 0:30:55.560
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0:30:55.560 --> 0:30:58.480
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0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:00.160
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