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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? Tell? Are you welcome into a Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perolt. You guys can follow me across all socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt. And this podcast, each and every

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Speaker 1: morning is being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot Com.

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Speaker 1: They customize you r L It's Omaha Steaks dot Com

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Speaker 1: Slash Juice subscriptions. If you go there and get one,

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Speaker 1: first order with a one percent money back guarantee. Omah

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Speaker 1: Steaks dot Com slash Juice. All Right, a winning night

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Speaker 1: two and one. Not a huge night, but a winning

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Speaker 1: night two and one. I thought after we lost the

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Speaker 1: opener that it was going to be a really bad day.

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Speaker 1: And I was like, man alive took the dog. Central

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Speaker 1: Florida got blitzed by BYU. If they shoot like that,

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Speaker 1: they could win the whole thing. In Kansas City, I mean,

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Speaker 1: straight up, with what Kansas is looking like, and you

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Speaker 1: know how how they're not there. Actually, I don't even

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Speaker 1: see the Kansas score. Let me look at the KU

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Speaker 1: score tonight. I think they win. I think that they

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Speaker 1: I think they lost, right, but it's a wide open

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Speaker 1: tournament for what's going on. And this was a let

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Speaker 1: me see. Yeah since I've been in by twenty. Wow,

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Speaker 1: they killed them. They killed Kansas. So Kansas is gone.

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Speaker 1: I mean UCF is gone, Texas is gone. By you

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Speaker 1: can win the whole thing, straight up. They can win

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Speaker 1: the whole thing. More on them here in just one second.

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Speaker 1: But they shot really well. We get Georgia. If Georgia

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Speaker 1: had lost and not covered, I was going to stop

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Speaker 1: betting college basketball today. I was going to bet at all.

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Speaker 1: The whole My whole Thursday was riding on Georgia coming

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Speaker 1: back and covering against an er in sixteen Missouri team.

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Speaker 1: I didn't win a game in the in the in

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Speaker 1: the SEC. If I can't get that bet right, I

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Speaker 1: can't get any bet right. So we got Georgia. Georgia

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Speaker 1: wins and they cover barely one by four. Welaid three.

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Speaker 1: So we got that right by five. But we got

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Speaker 1: that right. Then we got the under easily for Golden

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Speaker 1: State in Dallas. I mean, look, the NBA, I may

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Speaker 1: add to the card officially with the NBA. I want

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Speaker 1: to see a little more as to who is playing

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Speaker 1: and who is not. These NBA unders have been just

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Speaker 1: so incredibly profitable. There's Phoenixes at Boston tonight, Philadelphia's at

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee tonight, Dallas is at okay See tonight. These are

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Speaker 1: all games where we might be taking a look at

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Speaker 1: the total in Boston team total over in the first

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Speaker 1: half that might be in play here for us. We

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Speaker 1: might take a look at Dallas on the road to

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Speaker 1: the under with OKAC. But I'll let you know if

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Speaker 1: I do anything officially in the Discord channel, bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: Com slash chat. But I've got three plays for you

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Speaker 1: officially today, and I've got two personal plays. You guys

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Speaker 1: tend to like the personal plays because the personal plays

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Speaker 1: have been hitting. I'll tell you why I'm not making

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Speaker 1: them official. But I got three plays at are official

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Speaker 1: and two plays that are not. You've bet them all.

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Speaker 1: Best of luck to you, But you know, giving out cold,

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Speaker 1: I've been over the last couple of weeks, I'd be careful.

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Speaker 1: That's why I'm not making all five of these official

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Speaker 1: because I haven't been good. So I'll just take a

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Speaker 1: flyer on a couple of plays that I like. But

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Speaker 1: let's start with Mississippi and Texas A and M so

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Speaker 1: A and M is hot, and A and M has

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Speaker 1: won three games in a row. They beat Georgia, they

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Speaker 1: beat Mississippi State, and they beat this ole Miss team

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Speaker 1: by get this, twenty six points in their last game.

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Speaker 1: They're turning around and they're playing Ole Miss. The number

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Speaker 1: is five. Now. Kempom has this as a four point win,

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Speaker 1: seventy four to seventy. But A and M is a

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Speaker 1: team that even though offensively they're not good, they make

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Speaker 1: their bones on defense and they're really good defensively, and

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Speaker 1: they're starting to lock down defensively, and Buzz Williams just

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Speaker 1: really knows how to coach in this time of the year.

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Speaker 1: A and M is nine and seven on the road

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Speaker 1: away from home this year ats Ole Miss is six

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Speaker 1: and seven ats. But you take a look at them

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Speaker 1: straight up on the money line, six and seven versus

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Speaker 1: eight and eight A and M. Look, I think this

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Speaker 1: is going to be really interesting to see. A and

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Speaker 1: M's a team with tournament experience that's got a coach

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Speaker 1: that's really good. I look for coaching here in these tournaments.

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Speaker 1: I think Ole Miss just hasn't been great away from home.

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Speaker 1: They went seven and eleven in the SEC this year.

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Speaker 1: And on the road away from home points spread wise,

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Speaker 1: they just haven't been a team that you really can trust.

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Speaker 1: They went seven and eleven ats wise in conference, so

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Speaker 1: at A and M. By the way, they went seven

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Speaker 1: and eleven, But they've covered their last three games, including

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Speaker 1: blowing out of Ole Miss. This game would be closer

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Speaker 1: than the last one. Okay, this is in Nashville, neutral site.

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Speaker 1: But I think A and M is playing better. I

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Speaker 1: think A and M has the better coach. A and M. Look,

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Speaker 1: they won by twenty six. It's tough turnaround and beat

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Speaker 1: a team again. I don't think they're gonna kill them

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Speaker 1: like last time. But I'll lay the five with Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M laying points in these tournaments, I'm not

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Speaker 1: laying more than six points five. If it goes higher

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Speaker 1: than five, I mean five and a half maybe, but

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Speaker 1: that's the ceiling here. I'm not laying six here with

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Speaker 1: A and M. In a tournament setting against Ole Miss,

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Speaker 1: a LA five opened at four and a half was

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Speaker 1: bet to five five is you know, don't go higher

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Speaker 1: than five and a half. Texas A and M minus

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Speaker 1: five for one point one units. Second bet, let's go

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Speaker 1: to Vegas where I am. Let's talk about UNLV at

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Speaker 1: home because it is at home UNLV against San Diego

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Speaker 1: State again. This is a game in which these teams

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Speaker 1: just played. Okay, it was a game last home game,

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Speaker 1: four Vegas again San Diego State. They were three point dogs.

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Speaker 1: They won by four. This time around, they're five point dogs.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing. Look this tournament. I know it's a

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Speaker 1: different floor, but having it be at home for UNLV,

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Speaker 1: where they were nine and four ats is monster. San

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Speaker 1: Diego State was four and twelve ats on the road.

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Speaker 1: And this game's at two thirty. Now it's spring break. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I teach at UNLV. It's spring break. How many kids

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Speaker 1: will be there? I think quite a few. It's a

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Speaker 1: commuter school, a lot of kids locally, a lot of

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Speaker 1: people locally. This is a lunchtime special two point thirty

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Speaker 1: to go watch you ANDLV, who have been tremendous seven

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Speaker 1: and three ats over their last ten, four and one

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Speaker 1: ats over their last five oho in three san Diego

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Speaker 1: State and one in four ats over their last five

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Speaker 1: for San Diego State, including the loss to UNLV, the

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Speaker 1: loss at home to Boise on Senior Day, laying seven,

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Speaker 1: they lost by two. They did not cover against San

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Speaker 1: Jose State. They were laying twenty one and a half.

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Speaker 1: They only won by eight. They blew out Fresno with

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Speaker 1: They lost on the road to Utah State as three

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Speaker 1: point dogs. They lost by five. UNLV has lost to Nevada.

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Speaker 1: That's it since since the twenty seventh of January. The

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Speaker 1: only team to have beaten UNLV is Nevada. They beat

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Speaker 1: him here in Vegas by three. They beat him by

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Speaker 1: ten in Reno. Every other game for U and LV,

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Speaker 1: they've won it. They've beaten San Diego State, they beat Wyoming,

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Speaker 1: they beat Colorado States, they beat New Mexico, they beat Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: They've beaten everybody. I mean, they lost by one to

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Speaker 1: Utah State in the one game they played them this year,

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Speaker 1: hard fought game at home. They lost it at home,

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Speaker 1: but that was a hard fought game. That was really

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Speaker 1: the difference between you and LV winning the Mountain West

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Speaker 1: Conference and losing the mount West Conference. Utah State won

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Speaker 1: the conference regularly seasons championship by one game. UNLV is

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Speaker 1: live to win this tournament, Okay, I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: this might be a totally different game. It's a tournament game,

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Speaker 1: and you know, Brian Dutcher's got a ton of experience.

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Speaker 1: This team went deep all the way to the championship

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Speaker 1: game last year. They brought a lot of guys back

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Speaker 1: from last year. But you and lv's hot. I really

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Speaker 1: like their point guard play. I really like what we've

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Speaker 1: seen a U and LV down the stretch. And I

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Speaker 1: just think it's a home game. It's a home atmosphere.

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Speaker 1: It's a four point win for San Diego State. According

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Speaker 1: to Ken Palm, we're catching five here on this. But

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Speaker 1: if you haven't seen the Boone Twins, they're really fun

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Speaker 1: to watch. And dd end Thomas has been just the

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Speaker 1: six foot one freshman locally five star kids from U

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Speaker 1: and LV. He's been unbelievable down the stretch. He's been

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Speaker 1: tremendous point guard play. Coaching obviously with the Kruegers, with

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Speaker 1: Lawn and his son coaching at U and LV. This

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Speaker 1: is what I look for. We know Thomas is a killer.

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Speaker 1: He killed San Diego State in the last game that

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Speaker 1: they played at home. I'll take the five U and

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Speaker 1: LV plus five for one point one units. And the

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Speaker 1: last official play is we're going to talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the Houston Cougars who get going here. Total

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Speaker 1: is one thirty seven and a half. This might be

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Speaker 1: one of the more boring bets. It's just sort of

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Speaker 1: like a of course, neutral site, number one team in

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Speaker 1: the country, the best defensive team in the nation, Ken

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Speaker 1: Palm number one team. The metrics are all over what

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Speaker 1: we've seen here for Houston, and it's a team in

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Speaker 1: TCU that, look, they're gonna have their hands full. This

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Speaker 1: could very very well be an absolute blowout. This is

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Speaker 1: an afternoon game, three o'clock game in Kansas City. Now,

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Speaker 1: TCU is ten and six away from home this year,

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Speaker 1: ATS four and ten Houston ats It's why I'm afraid

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Speaker 1: of laying ten points in this game. However, from a

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Speaker 1: total perspective, look seven and seven, TCU has been an

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Speaker 1: over team, eleven and five to the over on the

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Speaker 1: road one four straight games to go over. But this

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Speaker 1: is Houston, Okay, this is Houston in their first game

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Speaker 1: of the tournaments. They're gonna lock down. Okay. Against Kansas

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Speaker 1: at home, it was one thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: It went under by seventeen and a half points. On

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Speaker 1: the road against UCF, it was one thirty two and

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Speaker 1: a half. It went under by six and a half points.

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Speaker 1: They had a little stretch in there where their games

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Speaker 1: were going over. But against against TCU, I don't think

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Speaker 1: TCU is gonna score all that much. Okay, the first

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Speaker 1: time they played it was one thirty seven sixty eight

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Speaker 1: sixty seven. It was a win for TCU on the road.

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Speaker 1: Game went under by two points, just barely, but it

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Speaker 1: did stay under. I just think given the fact this

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Speaker 1: is the first tournament game, I expect an all out

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Speaker 1: crazy effort here. It's a one thirty total for UH.

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Speaker 1: When we do the math reay fest on that, I

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Speaker 1: can't do the math on the fly on these things.

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Speaker 1: Just make sure I'm giving you the right Yet it's

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Speaker 1: one forty total for KEMPOM. Has it going over. I

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Speaker 1: think it goes under. I just think it's lockdown defense.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I lean towards TCU or so Houston

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Speaker 1: laying the ten. I don't think TCU scores that much.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be an absolute. It feels

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Speaker 1: like a route. I think the unders the play here

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Speaker 1: on this, just given where they've been eighteen and thirteen

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Speaker 1: to the under this year for Houston. KEMPOM numbers, I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously on stats wise, KEMPOM is stupid number one, Adjusted

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Speaker 1: efficiency on defense number two, effective field goal percentage on

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Speaker 1: defense number twelve, and three point percentage defense number nine

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Speaker 1: and two point percentage defense. They have the number one

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Speaker 1: steal percentage in college basketball, number two block percentage in

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Speaker 1: college basketball. They get a ton of their points in

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Speaker 1: the paints. They do hit threes from time to time,

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Speaker 1: but defensively, they just don't let you score. They just

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Speaker 1: they they suffocate you. And here's Kelvin Sampson's first game

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Speaker 1: of the Big Twelve of Conference Tournament, first game ever

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Speaker 1: in the conference Tournament. I don't care about the injuries

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Speaker 1: to the bench, doesn't matter. In game number one under

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Speaker 1: one thirty seven Houston and TCU. Now two bets for

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Speaker 1: you that are unofficial that I have made. BYU shot

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Speaker 1: so well yesterday, I think you have to lay the

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Speaker 1: two points with BYU. Now it's a two point win

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Speaker 1: according to kempom up against Texas Tech. But BYU we

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Speaker 1: talked about yesterday. They get forty one percent of their

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Speaker 1: points from behind the three point line, and they absolutely

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Speaker 1: blitzed yesterday. They shot so well from behind the arc. Now,

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Speaker 1: two games in two days, is that scary? Sure, that's scary.

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Speaker 1: But they scored eighty seven points on a really good

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Speaker 1: defensive team for UCF, and they shot forty six percent

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Speaker 1: from behind the arc. They went fourteen of thirty. If

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Speaker 1: they recreate that, they can shoot themselves to winning this

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Speaker 1: whole darn thing. Okay, it's a small number. I think

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Speaker 1: it's worth laying the two points here. It may be tight,

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Speaker 1: it may be difficult, but Texas Tech at home was

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Speaker 1: a much different team than Texas Tech on the road.

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Speaker 1: Seven and seven on the road ATS, sorry, six and

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Speaker 1: seven and one ATS. They were eight and nine ATS.

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Speaker 1: But coming down the stretch at home, I mean, they

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Speaker 1: beat Baylor at home, they beat Kansas at home. They've

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Speaker 1: had some really impressive performances, but on the road, you know,

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Speaker 1: they've been sort of up and down. They haven't been

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Speaker 1: all that great. They beat BYU at home by seven,

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Speaker 1: laying two points in that one. A little bit of

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Speaker 1: a revenge factor here, potentially for BYU. They've covered five

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Speaker 1: straight games BYU has they've covered six of seven, they've

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Speaker 1: won four of five, they've won five of seven. Give

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Speaker 1: me BYU unofficially, but BYU minus two. And then the

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Speaker 1: Creighton Blue Jays play up against Providence. Oh oh boy,

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Speaker 1: here's the problem the Jays have gone. I believe the

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Speaker 1: number is twelve of the last fourteen games in tournament

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Speaker 1: play has it's been decided by four points or less.

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Speaker 1: They play tight games in tournaments. Providence is not an

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Speaker 1: easy matchup for the Creighton Blue Jays. The number is

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. They lost to Providence in overtime

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Speaker 1: on the road, ninety one to eighty seven. They beat

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Speaker 1: Providence at home sixty nine to sixty. We know what

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Speaker 1: Providence is going to do. This is a seven point

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Speaker 1: win according to kempom. But defensively, Providence is seventeenth in

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Speaker 1: adjusted efficiency their forty first and effective field goal percentage defensively,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and second in three point defense, in twentieth

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Speaker 1: in two point defense. They protect the rim. What do

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Speaker 1: we know about the Creighton Blue Jays. Well, the Jays

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Speaker 1: thirty nine point nine percent of their offense comes from

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Speaker 1: behind the arc. That's tenth in college basketball. There're byu

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Speaker 1: all over again, have to hit the three. But the

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Speaker 1: Jays have done well in New York. They've done well

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Speaker 1: in the quarterfinals in New York. They've made it to

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Speaker 1: the tournament final four times since joining the Big East.

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Speaker 1: They've lost every time, but the summer being seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, it feels heavy. Okay, I'm gonna lay it

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Speaker 1: because I don't think Providence will have the legs late.

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Speaker 1: I think it might be close. It might take Providence

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Speaker 1: in the first half if you want, But I think

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Speaker 1: the Ja's defensively, they will shut down Providence and they

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Speaker 1: will prevent Providence. I like the under in this game too,

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Speaker 1: that matter, because I don't think they're going to see

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Speaker 1: a ton of points in this game. But I do

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Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, the Jays will

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Speaker 1: be good, too good offensively, and have just a little

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Speaker 1: bit too much for Providence. Creighton was nine and six

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Speaker 1: away from home ats this year, but Providence was ten

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Speaker 1: and four. They beat Georgetown by eighteen, but two of

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Speaker 1: the last three games has been against Georgetown then and

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Speaker 1: Yukon sandwiched in between. They won by thirteen, by eighteen,

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Speaker 1: and lost by fourteen. But before that they lost to

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Speaker 1: Villanova by eleven. They lost to Marquette by twenty two.

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Speaker 1: They weren't playing all that well. They've lost three of

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Speaker 1: their last five games, but they played Marquette, Villanova, Connecticut

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Speaker 1: other than Creighton, those are the three best teams in

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Speaker 1: the Big East. So I mean it's at the dunk.

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Speaker 1: I would say this is Providence all day. Take the plot,

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Speaker 1: the points in New York. Nah, the Jay's outlast them.

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Speaker 1: I'll lay the seven and a half I did. Jays

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Speaker 1: need to shoot really well, and they have played really well.

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Speaker 1: They're seven and three over their last ten games ats.

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Speaker 1: They've covered their last three, including on the road at Villanova,

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Speaker 1: at home against Marquette, and at home against Seaton Hall.

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Speaker 1: There will be a lot of Jays fans in New

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Speaker 1: York for this game, Creighton fans. It's a night game

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Speaker 1: in New York, which I like a lot because the

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Speaker 1: Jays can get their normal you know, sight lines, normal shots,

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Speaker 1: normal normal routine to get up and not playing during

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Speaker 1: the day, and it's all national TV. It's a chance

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Speaker 1: to show out. Think Providence will be overmatched here against

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Speaker 1: the Creighton Blue Jay team that's going to put their

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Speaker 1: hard hat on and go to work. I expect Crockbrunnery

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Speaker 1: really good. It's all about Barry Baylor Shireman. Okay fit

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Speaker 1: in this game. Baylor Sharman plays like he did against

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Speaker 1: Marquette and Villanova. The Jays will win this game by

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Speaker 1: ten points, okay, but they got to shoot the three.

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Speaker 1: They need Baylor to be effective, and he has been recently.

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Speaker 1: If he keeps on playing like this, this is where

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Speaker 1: the Jades can make a run to the biggest tournament

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Speaker 1: final and frankly, to the final four. If Baylor Shireman

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Speaker 1: plays the way he's capable of. This is his last tournament.

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Speaker 1: It is go time for him. Okay. So three bets

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Speaker 1: officially TCU Houston under one thirty seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: U and V plus five, Texas, A and M minus

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Speaker 1: five officially unofficially BYU minus two, Creighton Blue Jays minus

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. Jump shooting teams and tournaments scare me.

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Speaker 1: That's why I'm not making those plays official. Okay. If

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Speaker 1: BYU and Creighton both go cold from the outside, they're

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Speaker 1: not winning. They are three point dominant. But this is

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Speaker 1: the first game for the Jay's, second game for Buyu.

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Speaker 1: I don't think legs are too much of an issue

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Speaker 1: for either team at the moment. They shoot the ball well,

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Speaker 1: they'll both win, they'll both cover. But those are not

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Speaker 1: official plays. TCU Houston under one thirty seven, un V

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Speaker 1: plus five, Texas and and minus five and I very

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Speaker 1: well may add an NBA play on the Discord channel

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com slash Chat. We'll look at some line movement,

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Speaker 1: look at who's in who's out in the NBA, and

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Speaker 1: I may add an NBA total under or over coming

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Speaker 1: up here later today. Check it out on the Discord channel,

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com slash chat minus Matt Paroltz, follow Micross

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Speaker 1: all socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning Dale Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: I was being brought to you by Omah Steaks dot

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Speaker 1: com