Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight here at the Volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday, everybody. We're gonna get right into it today
Speaker 1: with the first of our eight series previews, starting in
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference with the four five matchup the Cleveland
Speaker 1: Cavaliers versus the New York Knicks. Gonna dive into this
Speaker 1: series from a bunch of different angles, you guys know
Speaker 1: the drill before we get started. To subscribe to the
Speaker 1: Volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you
Speaker 1: guys don't miss any show announcements. Also going to be
Speaker 1: doing a lot more footage breakdowns on my Twitter feed
Speaker 1: as we had into the playoffs last been not least it.
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, you guys miss one of these episodes
Speaker 1: and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish,
Speaker 1: don't forget. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Under Hoops tonight, all right, let's talk. Let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 1: So a couple of series notes here before we get
Speaker 1: into the weeds. The Calves are a minus two oh
Speaker 1: five favorite. That's a significant favorite to win the series
Speaker 1: right now. I do think that's inflated by the Julius
Speaker 1: Randall news. Though the Knicks won the season series three
Speaker 1: to one, including winning three in a row. They won
Speaker 1: a game where they held them to just eighty one points,
Speaker 1: they won a game where Julius Randall lit them up
Speaker 1: for thirty six points and hit the eventual game winner,
Speaker 1: and then they won a game in Cleveland where Julius
Speaker 1: Randall was out and Jalen Brunson had a monster night.
Speaker 1: I think he had almost fifty and he outplayed Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell to beat the Calves in Cleveland. So the Cavs
Speaker 1: have been the better team all season from a standings
Speaker 1: in a big picture standpoint, but the Knicks have been
Speaker 1: a better team within this matchup. They both have an
Speaker 1: elite top five unit. The Cavs have the best defense
Speaker 1: in the league by defensive rating and the Knicks are
Speaker 1: the fourth best offense in the league. And both teams
Speaker 1: are top seven in net rating, so both teams probably
Speaker 1: feel very good about their chances. I think this is
Speaker 1: by far the most interesting series in the Eastern Conference
Speaker 1: first round. East is a little rough there in that
Speaker 1: first round, a lot of somewhat uninteresting matchups. Hopefully we
Speaker 1: get Miami Boston to get one more interesting look. But
Speaker 1: everything will get entertaining once we get to round two
Speaker 1: with how good the top that conference is. But I
Speaker 1: wanted to start with Nick's calves because this is my
Speaker 1: favorite series out east. On the ju Julius Randall front.
Speaker 1: He's sprained his ankle a couple of weeks ago, I
Speaker 1: expect him to play, so moving forward with this breakdown,
Speaker 1: I'm going to be moving forward under the assumption that
Speaker 1: Julius Randall plays in every game, and then he's roughly
Speaker 1: eighty percent of what he was before the injury. Just
Speaker 1: think like a little out of shape and a little
Speaker 1: out of rhythm. I'm expecting that as part of this
Speaker 1: calculus that I'm looking forward in this series. And then
Speaker 1: obviously if he's out and misses a significant chunk of
Speaker 1: the series, that makes this a whole lot easier, doesn't it.
Speaker 1: Because in the playoffs, with the way they'll be able
Speaker 1: to load up on Jalen Brunston, I'm just not sure
Speaker 1: how they'd be able to win out Julius Randalls. So
Speaker 1: obviously that's a big swing factor there. But we're going
Speaker 1: to move forward as though he is healthy. So last year,
Speaker 1: the way we did these serious previews is we kind
Speaker 1: of just did offense defense, So we kind of focus
Speaker 1: on one side of the ball for both teams, and
Speaker 1: then we focus on the other side of the ball
Speaker 1: when the other team had possession and what those matchups
Speaker 1: would look like. I want to do it a little
Speaker 1: bit different this year. I want to kind of look
Speaker 1: at big picture matchups and I want to bounce around
Speaker 1: between both sides of the floor. As a result of that,
Speaker 1: I think it allows us to kind of target the
Speaker 1: specific battles that a team has to win in order
Speaker 1: to win a series. We'll see how if it lasts
Speaker 1: through all eight breakdowns, but that's how I'm doing this
Speaker 1: one to start. So first of all, as we're looking
Speaker 1: at the shot creators for both teams, I kind of
Speaker 1: look at RJ. Barrett and Karris Lavert as two different
Speaker 1: sides of the same coin. They're both tertiary shot creators
Speaker 1: who are both kind of like frustrating for their fan
Speaker 1: bases from time to time. Like RJ. Barrett can get
Speaker 1: tunnel vision and really start to play kind of on
Speaker 1: an island with himself, and he can really force the
Speaker 1: ball to his left hand side and is pretty heavy
Speaker 1: to the basket, not a good jump shooter. And then
Speaker 1: Karros Lavert's kind of the opposite of that, the same
Speaker 1: type of kind of tunnel vision guy, but he's much
Speaker 1: more of a pull up jump shooter and he shoots
Speaker 1: the ball well from three. He's actually one of the
Speaker 1: better pull up three point shooters that we have in
Speaker 1: the league, but he takes a lot of pull up
Speaker 1: jump shots. So it's a similar type of frustration that
Speaker 1: you experience with RJ. Barrett, just kind of in a
Speaker 1: different archetype. Offensively, I kind of look at those two
Speaker 1: guys as a wash, and I would imagine that both
Speaker 1: fan bases will be largely frustrated with them throughout the series.
Speaker 1: I do think RJ. Barrett is a slightly better defensive
Speaker 1: player than Karris Lavert, but not enough to have a
Speaker 1: major impact on this series. And I don't think Karris
Speaker 1: Lavert is a weak point defensively. So what I want
Speaker 1: to focus in on is the Brunson verse Mitchell matchup
Speaker 1: and the Randall verse Garland matchup, because those are the
Speaker 1: two shot creation matchups that I do see having a
Speaker 1: large impact on the outcome of this series. So, first
Speaker 1: of all, Donovan Mitchell is the best player in this series.
Speaker 1: He deserves that recognition going in He's got a much
Speaker 1: more extensive playoff resume, and I think overall right now
Speaker 1: he's just a little bit better. But that's the key there.
Speaker 1: I do think it's a lot closer than people think
Speaker 1: going into this series. You know, it's funny. I was
Speaker 1: talking with my buddy Josh, who's on our production staff
Speaker 1: here at the Volume for Hoops Tonight. He's big Knicks fan,
Speaker 1: and he was talking on Twitter the other day about
Speaker 1: how Knicks fans are very at peace with the Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson Donovan Mitchell situation, having not got Donovan Mitchell over
Speaker 1: the summer, and you know, it's pretty critical of the
Speaker 1: Knicks for not being more aggressive to get Donovan Mitchell.
Speaker 1: That said, the reality was, is Jalen Brunson being as
Speaker 1: good as he ended up being is what made it
Speaker 1: so that the Knicks fans could move on. That's why
Speaker 1: they're kind of at peace with it. Had Jalen Brunson
Speaker 1: been more or less what he was with the Mavericks,
Speaker 1: it might have been more frustrating because Donovan Mitchell is,
Speaker 1: you know, legitimately a second tier superstar right, and Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson was something beneath that. But Jalen bruns has gone
Speaker 1: up a level in this season, even above and beyond
Speaker 1: what he was in last year's postseason, which was a
Speaker 1: legitimate twenty point per game score. Right. This season, he's
Speaker 1: actually been better than Donovan Mitchell in every single phase
Speaker 1: of shot creation. I wanted to break this down for
Speaker 1: you guys. First of all, Donovan Mitchell and pick and
Speaker 1: roll one point one points per possession including passes, Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson one point zero eight. Not much of a gap there.
Speaker 1: In isolation Donovan Mitchell one point zero two points per
Speaker 1: possession including passes, Jalen Brunson one point one, so significantly
Speaker 1: better beating switches in isolation. And Jalen Brunson as a whole,
Speaker 1: like a whole postop element to his game. He's actually
Speaker 1: run eighty post ups this year for seventy six points,
Speaker 1: including back in the game that they played in January
Speaker 1: where the Knicks one one, five, one three in crunch time,
Speaker 1: he had a play where he backed Donovan Mitchell down
Speaker 1: to kind of the elbow and hit him with a
Speaker 1: turnaround jumper. Very important shot in that game out of
Speaker 1: the post over the top of Donovan Mitchell, He's actually
Speaker 1: been a more success as shock creater, and the big
Speaker 1: part of that is he's just a much much better
Speaker 1: passer than Donovan Mitchell. I think that's kind of what
Speaker 1: allows him to bridge that gap despite not being the
Speaker 1: otherworldly scoring force that Donovan Mitchell has been throughout his
Speaker 1: entire career, including in the postseason. I think Donovan and
Speaker 1: you'll see that, particularly at the end of games, because
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell can have a little bit of that Russell
Speaker 1: Westbrook thing going on, where he's can force the action
Speaker 1: and play hero ball a lot, whereas Jalen Brunson is
Speaker 1: a little more methodical, a little bit more of a
Speaker 1: slowdown and patiently make reads kind of guy. I think
Speaker 1: that's what allows him to bridge that gap despite not
Speaker 1: being the same level of athlete and shot maker that
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell is. But I still, especially when we factor
Speaker 1: in the nature of the postseason, the way that physicality increases,
Speaker 1: the way that your athleticism becomes a bigger advantage in
Speaker 1: that setting, I still give Donovan Mitchell as a clear
Speaker 1: edge is the best player in the series because of
Speaker 1: and I think he's earned that right going in given
Speaker 1: the way that he's played in his postseason career, But
Speaker 1: it's not much of an advantage in my opinion. But
Speaker 1: I would say that he is the best player in
Speaker 1: the series. And also I wouldn't be surprised if we
Speaker 1: looked back two weeks from now and Jalen Brunson had
Speaker 1: outplayed him. But going into the series, I think from
Speaker 1: a prediction standpoint, that's a matchup that the Calves will
Speaker 1: win in favor of Donovan Mitchell by some small margin.
Speaker 1: Randall versus Garland, these are the two bona fide secondary
Speaker 1: shot creators. I actually think Randall has a significant edge here,
Speaker 1: kind of a similar sized edge to what I'd give
Speaker 1: Mitchell over Jalen Brunson. He's been more efficient as both
Speaker 1: a pick and roll shot creator and ISO shot creator
Speaker 1: than Darius Garland. This year. He's averaging one point zero
Speaker 1: seven points per pick and roll including passes, compared to
Speaker 1: one point zero three for Darius Garland, one point zero
Speaker 1: two points per ISO compared to zero point eight seven
Speaker 1: for Garland, not a strength in his game, and one
Speaker 1: point zero six points per post up. And this is
Speaker 1: an important part that I've talked a lot about with
Speaker 1: Julius Randall this year. One of my favorite parts of
Speaker 1: his game and something that I think translates really well
Speaker 1: to the postseason, is that classic like we run an
Speaker 1: action or we sprint down in transition and get a
Speaker 1: cross match, but whatever it is, Julius Randall gets a
Speaker 1: smaller defender on him and they space the floor. The
Speaker 1: Knicks are an excellent spot up team. They're third in
Speaker 1: the league and converting spot up possessions into points. And
Speaker 1: he can back his way down to that ten fifteen
Speaker 1: foot area and just hit somebody with his shoulder and
Speaker 1: go to that fade away over his left shoulder that
Speaker 1: he can hit at a high clip. And that is
Speaker 1: rock fight basketball. That's the kind of thing that doesn't
Speaker 1: depend on getting a ton of legs into a shot.
Speaker 1: That's a twenty six foot step back shot, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean. It's a shot that is very dependable
Speaker 1: on that stage of the NBA playoffs, especially when you
Speaker 1: have a size advantage. That Julius Randall has had an
Speaker 1: incredibly impressive scoring season this year, and it's a big
Speaker 1: part of why the Knicks has been so good offensively
Speaker 1: this year. And I think the last thing kind of
Speaker 1: as a team perspective, because as I look at that again,
Speaker 1: it's pretty even. You've got the two guards that are
Speaker 1: your high pick and roll shot creators, and then you've
Speaker 1: got this big forward for the Knicks, and then another
Speaker 1: more playmaking oriented guard for the Calves, and then you've
Speaker 1: got these two weird tertiary creators in r. J. Barrett
Speaker 1: and Karas Slavert. But there's more variety in what the
Speaker 1: New York Knicks do, and I think that's that, in
Speaker 1: combination with their spot up talent, is a big part
Speaker 1: of why I think they've been the better offensive team
Speaker 1: this year. Everything the Calves do, it is at a
Speaker 1: high pick and roll. As we told you earlier, Mitchell
Speaker 1: is not nearly as good at converting isolation possessions as
Speaker 1: Randall and Brunson. He's much more of a pick and
Speaker 1: roll shot creator, and Darius Garland's bad at converting isolation possessions.
Speaker 1: He's a pick and roll shot creator. So everything the
Speaker 1: Calves do is at a high pick and roll. In fact,
Speaker 1: they were in the fourth most pick and rolls in
Speaker 1: the league this year, and the most among these solidified
Speaker 1: playoff teams, in the top six in both conferences. So
Speaker 1: simply put, among the teams that have playoff spots locked down,
Speaker 1: nobody runs pick more pick and roll than the Calves.
Speaker 1: That's their very one dimensional approach in that regard, Whereas
Speaker 1: with the Knicks, you know, both Brunson and Randall can
Speaker 1: run pick and roll, but they both can beat you
Speaker 1: and switches in both the io and out of the post.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of variety with the way that they
Speaker 1: can attack. We saw in the last matchup between these
Speaker 1: two teams, Jalen Brunson torched the Calves out of high
Speaker 1: pick and roll, hitting pull up threes down the stretch.
Speaker 1: But then in their previous matchup back in January, we
Speaker 1: saw Jalen Brunson in the entire fourth quarter pretty much
Speaker 1: turn his back to the basket and operate out of
Speaker 1: the out of the post on that right elbow right.
Speaker 1: So there's just a little bit more variety with what
Speaker 1: the Knicks too, which makes them harder to defend, and
Speaker 1: then they're much much better at converting spot of possessions.
Speaker 1: That's a key factor in this series. The Knicks are
Speaker 1: the third best spot up team in the league and
Speaker 1: the Calves are the fifth worst spot up team. In
Speaker 1: the league. They're twenty sixth in the league at converting
Speaker 1: spot of possessions. So that's where you get that big
Speaker 1: gap on the offensive end of the floor. Another a
Speaker 1: big matchup part. I wanted to look at here, and
Speaker 1: this is where we zoom in on the spotting up
Speaker 1: thing side of things, Josh Hart versus the plethora of
Speaker 1: Cavs players that are going to play at the forward
Speaker 1: position in various off ball three and D roles. I remember,
Speaker 1: I was initially confused by the Josh Hard acquisition. It
Speaker 1: didn't really make sense to me because it was kind
Speaker 1: of like an all in type of trade. If I
Speaker 1: remember correctly, they gave up a first round pick. It
Speaker 1: was very much like the type of movie you expect
Speaker 1: a team that has wheel championship aspirations to go after.
Speaker 1: But hey, it was an indicator that the Knicks clearly
Speaker 1: are thinking that way, and he's been absolutely amazing for them.
Speaker 1: He's an excellent defender with the versatility to guard both
Speaker 1: forwards and guards. He's an outstanding spot up player because
Speaker 1: of his combination of the ability to respectively hit down
Speaker 1: respectably knocked down threes while also being good at attacking
Speaker 1: clothes outs. It's a highly underrated part of spotting up
Speaker 1: because that's what allows you to on the possessions where
Speaker 1: they chase you off the line or you pump fake
Speaker 1: and go beat someone off the dribble. That's what allows
Speaker 1: you to convert those into points by either attacking the
Speaker 1: basket with athleticism or making that awesome next read to
Speaker 1: the right guy who's going to be able to convert
Speaker 1: the possession. That's an important part of the game of
Speaker 1: basketball that gets overlooked when we just stare at three
Speaker 1: point percentages. But Josh Hart is converting spot up opportunities
Speaker 1: at one point two five points per possession since joining
Speaker 1: the Knicks. Here's how one's saying that is a guy
Speaker 1: like Michael Porter Junior for the Nuggets is converting him
Speaker 1: at about one point three points per spot up possession.
Speaker 1: So he's just a small level beneath the best spot
Speaker 1: up players in the league since joining the Knicks, and
Speaker 1: he does all these other little things well. Cuts to
Speaker 1: the basketball averages two offensive rebounds per game, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of offensive turns, many of those just into putbacks.
Speaker 1: He's the perfect glue guy to put the Knicks together.
Speaker 1: In fact, in three hundred and forty four possessions this year.
Speaker 1: With Randall, Brunson, and Hart on the floor together, the
Speaker 1: Knicks are outscoring teams by eighteen point one points per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions, which is amazing. As a compare, I'll
Speaker 1: be in a much larger season long sample size. The
Speaker 1: Knick sample size is shrunk by the fact that Hart
Speaker 1: was traded for and then you know, Jalen Brunson missed
Speaker 1: some time that foot injury, and then Julius Randalls miss
Speaker 1: some time to ankles haven't played as much together. But
Speaker 1: in a much larger sample size that calves unit. Let's
Speaker 1: just narrow it down to their best forward with Darius
Speaker 1: Garland and Donovan Mitchell. So Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley,
Speaker 1: those three guys are just seven point one points positive
Speaker 1: per one hundred possessions. Again, much larger sample size never
Speaker 1: apples to apples comparison, but it just goes to show
Speaker 1: you as a point of reference, how dominant the Knicks
Speaker 1: have been when they've had Randall and Brunson with a
Speaker 1: guy like Josh Hart to tie it all together with
Speaker 1: all the little things that he does well. This particular
Speaker 1: matchup that Josh Hart versus the Calves Wings matchup, I
Speaker 1: think is going to be one of the biggest swing
Speaker 1: factors in the series because, like I said, slight edge
Speaker 1: to Mitchell over Brunson, slight edge to Randall over Garland,
Speaker 1: you know, Karis Lavert, RJ Barrett, you know who the
Speaker 1: hell knows what's gonna happen with those guys. This is
Speaker 1: going to be a massive swing factor in this series
Speaker 1: in my opinion. That idea of what Josh Hart can
Speaker 1: do off the ball as a glue guy to put
Speaker 1: everything together. And obviously Evan Mobley does this in a
Speaker 1: very different way for Cleveland. We're gonna talk about him
Speaker 1: here in a minute. I have a whole kind of
Speaker 1: like segment put together for Evan Mobley, but that specific
Speaker 1: matchup is something I'm gonna be keeping a very close
Speaker 1: eye on because here's the deal. This is the way
Speaker 1: I look at it. If Donovan Mitchell's the best player
Speaker 1: in the series, and if the Calves have home court advantage,
Speaker 1: and there's a little bit of a question mark surrounding
Speaker 1: Julius Randall and his ankle and Cleveland's defensive front line.
Speaker 1: The Jared Allen, Evan Mobley thing and all they can
Speaker 1: do to dominate teams on the interior. If Josh Hart
Speaker 1: was on the Calves, I'd be picking the Calves in
Speaker 1: a heartbeat. But Josh Hart and the overall, you know,
Speaker 1: Quentin Grime, the Emmanuel quickly, the overall as a group
Speaker 1: much more, much more aggregate offensive skill in ball handling
Speaker 1: and shooting from the role players depth on the bench.
Speaker 1: That is the biggest swing factor for me in this series.
Speaker 1: That's what allows a team like the Knicks to overcome
Speaker 1: all those advantages that I just broke down for the Calves.
Speaker 1: And with the Calves wings and again, they generate just
Speaker 1: one point zero two points per spot a possession, which
Speaker 1: is twenty sixth in the league. It's like guys like
Speaker 1: Isaac Cora, Lamar Stevens, Chetty Osman, Dean Wade, the Danny
Speaker 1: Green traded just isn't moving well enough for them to
Speaker 1: use him. All of them have either not been hitting
Speaker 1: shots well enough, not attacking closeouts well enough, or doing
Speaker 1: those doing those things well, but not defending well enough
Speaker 1: for it to matter. And that's so important for the
Speaker 1: Calves in particular, because they love to use their forward,
Speaker 1: whether that's Lamar Stevens or Isaac Cora. They love to
Speaker 1: use that guy to take primary point of attack assignments
Speaker 1: like guard the other team's best guard, and so going
Speaker 1: with an offensive option there puts you in a predicament
Speaker 1: where now you have to ask Darius Garland and Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell to do that, and not only are they not
Speaker 1: good at that, but they're also guys that have an
Speaker 1: enormous amount of offensive responsibility on a team that doesn't
Speaker 1: really have much offensive skill beyond their two guards, and
Speaker 1: so it kind of puts them in this predicament where
Speaker 1: they don't know who to play now. The biggest optimism
Speaker 1: point there is Isaac a Coral has been shooting extremely
Speaker 1: well since going into the starting lineup. In thirty eight
Speaker 1: games since joining the starting lineup, is shooting forty four
Speaker 1: percent from three, and again, he's probably the best point
Speaker 1: of attack defender on the roster. He's probably gonna draw
Speaker 1: the Jalen Brunson assignment from the opening tip of Game
Speaker 1: one of this series, and so it's whether or not
Speaker 1: the Calves can somehow level out that matchup a little
Speaker 1: bit by having guys like Isaac a Cora shoot the
Speaker 1: lights out by having Lamar Stevens knocked down more threes
Speaker 1: than he's been hitting by getting something out of Dean
Speaker 1: Wade and Chetty Os and that could go a long
Speaker 1: way to leveling things out. So here's the deal. I
Speaker 1: think the Knicks are gonna win this series. I'm picking
Speaker 1: them in six games. Now, before I go any further,
Speaker 1: I have this is an obligatory thing that I have
Speaker 1: to do. Predictions are hard. These are just my best guesses.
Speaker 1: If it was easy to do this, we'd all be
Speaker 1: in Vegas. Instead of watching these games as fans, we'd
Speaker 1: all be in Vegas gambling on these games. This is
Speaker 1: the beauty of the game of basketball. It is a
Speaker 1: living organism of a five man unit. It is extremely
Speaker 1: difficult to predict. That's where the fun is. So just
Speaker 1: because I predict one team over another doesn't mean I'm
Speaker 1: going to be right. I'm gonna pick eight series. Guarantee
Speaker 1: you I get more than one of them wrong. Just
Speaker 1: the nature of the game of basketball. And if I
Speaker 1: do get all eight right, it's gonna be pure luck.
Speaker 1: But part of my job is I have to make
Speaker 1: a pick. I'm going to pick the Knicks to win
Speaker 1: the series in six games. But the Calves absolutely have
Speaker 1: a chance to win the series. Hell, they're favored to
Speaker 1: do it. I would imagine most of you guys listening
Speaker 1: disagree with me, and so I want to provide a
Speaker 1: case for why I think the Calves can win. Now again,
Speaker 1: just quick recap the way the Knicks can win. I
Speaker 1: think their shot creators are a little bit better and
Speaker 1: a little more verse to Toll, which is important in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I think their ability to help off of
Speaker 1: Evan Mobile in the small forward position will allow them
Speaker 1: to defend well enough in this matchup. Despite not being
Speaker 1: a great defensive team to the right during the regular season.
Speaker 1: The Knicks were eighteenth and defense during the regular season,
Speaker 1: allowing about one hundred and fourteen point two points per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions. But they have guarded Cleveland well. They
Speaker 1: have a one on nine point four defensive rating against Cleveland,
Speaker 1: and to give you a perspective, the Cleveland's one on
Speaker 1: nine point nine defensive rating is best in the league.
Speaker 1: So they've been defending at a much higher level in
Speaker 1: this particular matchup against Cleveland, in large part because of
Speaker 1: their ability to help off those forwards to help them
Speaker 1: with ring protection and guards. Are actually the strength of
Speaker 1: the Knicks defense. Jalen bruns And is a slightly above
Speaker 1: average point of attack defender, Emmanuel Quickly is a good
Speaker 1: point of attack defender, Josh hart is a good point
Speaker 1: of attack defender, and RJ. Barrett is an above average
Speaker 1: point of attack defender. That's where the strength of their
Speaker 1: defense is. It's, you know, some of the limitations with
Speaker 1: Mitchell Robinson, whether or not they can keep him on
Speaker 1: the floor offensively versus going with someone like Isaiah Hartenstein
Speaker 1: and then Julius Randall who can come and go defensively.
Speaker 1: That's where the weakness of their defense is. And don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong, I don't think the Knicks can win
Speaker 1: the title, but I think they can defend well enough
Speaker 1: to beat a Cleveland team. And then I think the
Speaker 1: big guy to watch for the Knicks in the series
Speaker 1: again is Josh hard I bet you his winning impact
Speaker 1: screams off of the screen and every single one of
Speaker 1: these games. But let's talk about how the Calves can win.
Speaker 1: I wrote down four specific swing factors for the Calves,
Speaker 1: four battles that I think they need to win in
Speaker 1: order to win the series. First of all, Donovan Mitchell
Speaker 1: needs to play like the best player in the series.
Speaker 1: He needs to clearly win the matchup with Jalen Brunson,
Speaker 1: and specifically, I want to look at decision making. Again,
Speaker 1: the As have been a little bit underwhelming in clutch
Speaker 1: situations this year, although they've been better as of late.
Speaker 1: They finished the year twenty four and twenty one in
Speaker 1: games involving clutch situations, which is fine, it's not awful,
Speaker 1: but this is a team that won fifty one games
Speaker 1: and had the sixth best record in the league, so
Speaker 1: they have underperformed in clutch situations relative to what their
Speaker 1: record is. Donovan Mitchell has a tendency to force things
Speaker 1: sometimes in that specific game down the stretch. Like we
Speaker 1: talked about back in January, Jalen Brunson, it's one hundred
Speaker 1: to one hundred kind of methodically is working out of
Speaker 1: the post, doesn't really get enough of an advantage, so
Speaker 1: he just shovels it to Julius Randall, doesn't force it
Speaker 1: to shovels it to Julius Randall. Julius was feeling good
Speaker 1: about his shot that night, rises up and hits a
Speaker 1: three in Jared Allen's face. Next two possessions for the
Speaker 1: caves where Donovan Mitchell getting blocked at the rim and
Speaker 1: turning the ball over in transition possessions where he had
Speaker 1: no advantage and he just forced it, just tried to
Speaker 1: pile drive his way to the basket and bad stuff happened.
Speaker 1: He just got that, just has that little bit of
Speaker 1: it's almost like too much confidence in his own ability
Speaker 1: to be able to kind of slow things down and
Speaker 1: let the game come to him. He has to be
Speaker 1: able to rain that in. Because he is a more
Speaker 1: dynamic score he is a better athlete. He should be
Speaker 1: the best player in this series. Jalen Brunson's best way
Speaker 1: to outplay him in this series is in clutch situations.
Speaker 1: So that's where Donovan Mitchell has to kind of rain
Speaker 1: things in. If he wins that matchup convincingly, that's a
Speaker 1: huge step forward for the Caps. Number two. Find a
Speaker 1: way to limit Julius Randall's bullyball now in film, one
Speaker 1: of the best ways I saw this was putting Jared
Speaker 1: Allen on him. He's got a good amount of muscle
Speaker 1: mass and size and length to be able to absorb
Speaker 1: those Julius Randall's shoulders to contest shots forced Julius Randall
Speaker 1: into a lot of long threes that he was hitting
Speaker 1: because he's Julius Randall and he can get hot, right,
Speaker 1: But I actually thought he did a good job of
Speaker 1: taking away the easier shots at Julius is known to
Speaker 1: get sometimes. I think that also kind of puts Evan
Speaker 1: in a position where he can kind of help and
Speaker 1: roam around. Obviously, that's a little bit of a gamble
Speaker 1: against a Knicks team with guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and
Speaker 1: Mitchell Robinson that relentlessly attacked the offensive glass, but I
Speaker 1: think it lines up their matchups pretty well. I think
Speaker 1: I think somehow finding a way to take away those
Speaker 1: easy shots that Julius Randall can get at the rim
Speaker 1: and in the short to mid range, maybe through a
Speaker 1: matchup like like Jared Allen, I think could go a
Speaker 1: long way. Third, Isaac Accorro needs to shoot over forty
Speaker 1: percent from three in this series. Again, he's their best
Speaker 1: point of attack defender. He is shooting forty four percent
Speaker 1: from three since joining the starting lineup. That's a thirty
Speaker 1: eight game sample size, that's almost half a season. But
Speaker 1: the Knicks will not guard him. He is not a
Speaker 1: good closeout attacker, does not have a good, well rounded
Speaker 1: skill set, so it's either knocking down the three or
Speaker 1: not much else from those kickouts, and so he has
Speaker 1: to hit them at such a high rate that it
Speaker 1: really hurts the Knicks when they help off of him.
Speaker 1: In fact, this year, out of one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: six players in the league to log at least two
Speaker 1: hundred spot up possessions, Isaaca Coros converting them one hundred
Speaker 1: that have one twenty six players less than a point
Speaker 1: per possession. That's not good and that's why the Knicks
Speaker 1: are going to leave him wide open. A lot of
Speaker 1: big Calves games this year have come down to Isaaca
Speaker 1: a Coral corner threes. And we all remember the Brooklyn
Speaker 1: one where you know that crazy Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound
Speaker 1: on the free throw that gets kicked by really nice
Speaker 1: swing pass from Karis Lavert crossed the court. Isaaca Cora
Speaker 1: hits the shot, you know, big time bucket for a
Speaker 1: CALVS team that desperately needed a good clutch win like that.
Speaker 1: But go back to January against the Knicks and Julius
Speaker 1: Randall hits a three from the top of the key.
Speaker 1: A couple possessions later, there's a possession that ends up
Speaker 1: in a wide open Isaaca Coro three in the left
Speaker 1: corner to tie the game. And he missed that one,
Speaker 1: same spot, missed that one. So a lot of these possessions,
Speaker 1: especially with Tom thibodone and the way that he likes
Speaker 1: to guard, a lot of these possessions are going to
Speaker 1: end in isaac coor open in the corner. Cannie hit
Speaker 1: them at a high enough clip to kind of mitigate
Speaker 1: some of that Josh Hart advantage that I was talking
Speaker 1: so much about that would go a long way towards
Speaker 1: giving the Kas a chance. And then last but not least,
Speaker 1: and this is where Ivan Mobley comes in. Evan Mobley
Speaker 1: and Jared Allen have to utterly dominate the interior of
Speaker 1: this game series on both ends of the floor. That's
Speaker 1: their biggest advantage from a personnel standpoint in this series.
Speaker 1: Julius Randall obviously offensively presents a bunch of issues, but
Speaker 1: he's not a great defensive player. And if Jared Allen
Speaker 1: can somewhat win that matchup defensively with him and limit
Speaker 1: his effectiveness and force him into a bad series. And
Speaker 1: Evan Mobley has been scoring really well. He's gone up
Speaker 1: a leap in the last half of the season. In
Speaker 1: his last thirty eight games, not counting the Sunday game
Speaker 1: when he barely played, he's averaging nineteen points per game
Speaker 1: on fifty six percent shooting. To go with his usual
Speaker 1: lights out still defense, blocking almost two shots per game.
Speaker 1: He's shooting seventy three percent at the rim this year,
Speaker 1: he's shooting fifty four percent on floaters. That's that Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis little push shot in the lane that's so important.
Speaker 1: If he just kicks everyone's ass and Jared Allen can
Speaker 1: mitigate some of that Julius Randall advantage and he gets
Speaker 1: something like twenty and ten at Evan Mobiley is just
Speaker 1: as an athletic wrecking ball everywhere on the floor. That's
Speaker 1: another huge swing swing factor for the Cavs. So to
Speaker 1: kind of wrap it all together here, I'm picking the
Speaker 1: Knicks in six. I think they're a better and more
Speaker 1: versatile shot creation team. I think they're much better spotting
Speaker 1: up off the ball. They've defended Cleveland really well this year.
Speaker 1: In overall, I think the Knicks have better role players
Speaker 1: with a deeper bench. But the Calv's best chance is
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell soundly outplays Jalen Brunson. They dominate the interior
Speaker 1: on both ends of the floor with Mobile and Allen.
Speaker 1: They contain Julius Randall's bullyball attack and turn him into
Speaker 1: a jump shooter, and then Isaaca core On needs to
Speaker 1: shoot lights out. If they can check those boxes, I
Speaker 1: think the Calves run away with this series. We are
Speaker 1: continuing our series previews today with what I think is
Speaker 1: the most interesting series in the first round of the
Speaker 1: Western Conference, the Sacramento Kings versus the Golden State Warriors.
Speaker 1: For those of you guys who missed it, we hit
Speaker 1: my favorite series from the Eastern Conference first round, Nick's
Speaker 1: Calves earlier today. You can find that on our YouTube feed.
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill. Before we get started, Subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any
Speaker 1: more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore
Speaker 1: Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements
Speaker 1: and it. For whatever reason you guys can't get over
Speaker 1: to YouTube to finish one of these videos, you can
Speaker 1: find them wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops tonight,
Speaker 1: and last but not least, before we get started, you
Speaker 1: guys have heard me talk about game Time the fastest
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States. If you're looking
Speaker 1: to get out to an NBA playoff game, a baseball game,
Speaker 1: an NHL game, or even a concert or a comedy show,
Speaker 1: Gametime has amazing last minute deals on tickets to all
Speaker 1: of these. So if you're looking to get out to
Speaker 1: watch your favorite team play in the NBA Playoffs, game
Speaker 1: Time has you covered. If your favorite artist is touring
Speaker 1: around the country and you want to get tickets to
Speaker 1: see them in concert, game Time has you covered. They've
Speaker 1: taken amazing care of me in the past. It's a
Speaker 1: super easy user experience. You're gonna find a good deal,
Speaker 1: You're gonna know exactly what you're getting yourself into. A
Speaker 1: highly recommended to you guys, So, no matter where you live,
Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. Download the
Speaker 1: game Time app and to your email and redeem code
Speaker 1: Hoops for twenty dollars off your first purchase terms apply
Speaker 1: again and to your email and code Hoops. That's Hoops
Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off. Download game Time today, last minute tickets,
Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. All right, let's talk some basketball, So
Speaker 1: a couple of quick notes on Warriors Kings. The Warriors
Speaker 1: are minus two hundred and sixty favorites right now in Vegas.
Speaker 1: That's a pretty significant favorite, a bigger favorite than the
Speaker 1: Calves are over the Knicks. For instance, the Warriors won
Speaker 1: the season series three to one in dominant fashion with
Speaker 1: Stephen Draymond on the floor. This year against the Kings,
Speaker 1: they outscored them by twenty six points per one hundred possessions.
Speaker 1: This was back in the days early in the season
Speaker 1: when the Warriors starters were whooping everyone's ass, and it
Speaker 1: was primarily a concern about the bench and not necessarily
Speaker 1: their ability to play on the road. Now important note
Speaker 1: all except for the Friday game when the Kings rested
Speaker 1: all their guys. The three games earlier in the season,
Speaker 1: we're all before Thanksgiving, so it's been a long time
Speaker 1: since then. And as a result, I would imagine both
Speaker 1: teams probably feel confident in their chances going in for
Speaker 1: the Kings. They can be like, hey, that was forever ago,
Speaker 1: don't worry about it, where a different team now will
Speaker 1: be fine. And if you're the Warriors, you're looking at
Speaker 1: it like, we know what we can do against these guys.
Speaker 1: We know they can't guard us. We're in good shape.
Speaker 1: So again, as should be the case, everyone should feel
Speaker 1: comfortable and confident when they go into a series or
Speaker 1: they have no chance to win. But I would imagine
Speaker 1: both teams feel pretty confident Andrew Wiggins. Steve Kurd did
Speaker 1: a little presser before their game on Sunday and said
Speaker 1: that he's been ramping up with three on three and
Speaker 1: some five on five and that he's going to continue
Speaker 1: to practice and scrimmage throughout the week. My guess is
Speaker 1: that he plays on Saturday in game one of this series.
Speaker 1: It's a good matchup for the Kings, or excuse me,
Speaker 1: for the Warriors from the same point of size and athleticism,
Speaker 1: so they don't desperately need Wiggins to win this series,
Speaker 1: although obviously he would help, and so because of that,
Speaker 1: I think it's kind of like the perfect series for
Speaker 1: him to kind of ramp up and you know, for
Speaker 1: them to pull the plug on him in his minutes
Speaker 1: if he's not playing well, or to give him a
Speaker 1: longer leash in games where he you know, where the
Speaker 1: Warriors are playing, you ten fifteen points up on the scoreboard.
Speaker 1: I think it's the ideal situation to bring him back
Speaker 1: kind of reminds me of last year with Steph Curry
Speaker 1: when he was coming back from his injury in the
Speaker 1: way that he was able to come off the bench
Speaker 1: against Denver and kind of slowly work his way into
Speaker 1: the series because it was a matchup that the Warriors
Speaker 1: felt good about, and I do believe the Warriors feel
Speaker 1: good about their matchup in this series. So similar to
Speaker 1: what I did with Kavs Nicks, rather than just focusing
Speaker 1: on you know, Warriors and offense, Kings on defense and
Speaker 1: vice versa, I want to focus on major contested battles
Speaker 1: of the series, major matchups, and major back and forth
Speaker 1: swing factors that will determine the outcome of the series.
Speaker 1: So first, who is the best player in the series.
Speaker 1: I think it's step by a mile. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's a hot take. He's a bona fide Top Tiers
Speaker 1: superstar and I think he's the second best player in
Speaker 1: the league right now behind Jannis. He's also a proven
Speaker 1: playoff performer in the defending finals MVP, so that is
Speaker 1: a massive advantage for the Warriors. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: if Darren Fox happened to somehow outplay step in this series,
Speaker 1: that would be a gigantic swing and the Kings would win.
Speaker 1: They if Darren Fox outplay Steff in the series, they
Speaker 1: might beat the Warriors in five, but it's extremely unlikely.
Speaker 1: That is a massive advantage for Golden State in the series.
Speaker 1: Why does that matter? Why does it matter to have
Speaker 1: the best layer in a playoff series? Well, a couple
Speaker 1: of reasons. First of all, every series is close for
Speaker 1: the most part. Like as we go down the matchups
Speaker 1: in this first round, like even in the Western Conference,
Speaker 1: I think all of them will be close. Like, the
Speaker 1: Nuggets aren't playing very good basketball, so if they catch
Speaker 1: a team like the Pelicans or the Wolves that are
Speaker 1: playing well, like, it's gonna that could be a six
Speaker 1: game series, right like. And I think perhaps the most
Speaker 1: lopsided matchup in the first round is probably Suns Clippers.
Speaker 1: And the Clippers are fine, They're good, they're not. I
Speaker 1: mean again, I'm gonna pick the Suns to win that series,
Speaker 1: but that's not gonna be They're not gonna blow out
Speaker 1: the Clippers every single game, right like, It's gonna be close.
Speaker 1: And the same goes for the Eastern Conference assign from
Speaker 1: maybe Brooklyn, Philly and whoever the Bucks get in the
Speaker 1: first round. So the reality is and it's just gonna
Speaker 1: get closer as you go into deeper rounds of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: So these series are very closely and hotly contested, right,
Speaker 1: And so if the games are close, and generally speaking
Speaker 1: playoff games, they're very physical. The ref swallow the whistle,
Speaker 1: the intensity rampstop is. Everybody's playing so damn hard that
Speaker 1: the game naturally devolves down into a ultrophysical rock fight.
Speaker 1: They just get super sloppy, super ugly, and it just
Speaker 1: becomes a game about grinding out possessions. And that's where
Speaker 1: superstars bring the biggest advantage in the game of basketball.
Speaker 1: The difference between a superstar and a role player most
Speaker 1: is most apparent in those specific situations. Because here's the thing.
Speaker 1: When it comes to advantage situations like closing out, like
Speaker 1: there are a lot of guys in the league, there
Speaker 1: are a lot of guys that aren't even in the
Speaker 1: league that can knock down an open shot or attack
Speaker 1: a closeout right like on the peripheries of basketball. Teams
Speaker 1: with those guys, it's more about you've got to find
Speaker 1: advantages for them. But when things get really tight, like
Speaker 1: those guys aren't going to create buckets off the bounce
Speaker 1: at a high rate. Like the Warriors aren't worried about
Speaker 1: like Keegan Murray in a set defense situation like breaking
Speaker 1: you down off the dribble. They're worried about having to
Speaker 1: help off of him in all of the damage that
Speaker 1: he can do if he's wide open, right. So it's
Speaker 1: really about in these tightly contested, slow down, physical, ugly
Speaker 1: half court situations on both ends of the floor, who
Speaker 1: can grind out plays on both ends. That's where superstars
Speaker 1: come in. For example, if it's Game five of this
Speaker 1: series and it's two to two, and it's the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter and it's seventy eight to seventy eight, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be an ugly fourth And having a guy like Steph
Speaker 1: who can make the most out of ugly situations better
Speaker 1: than just about anybody in the league, that's a real advantage.
Speaker 1: That is why the best player in basketball has a
Speaker 1: bigger impact than most team sports, especially when we get
Speaker 1: to the NBA playoffs. And that's why I've used Steph
Speaker 1: Curry being the best player in the series as a
Speaker 1: massive advantage for the Warriors. Now, second major, I'll be
Speaker 1: keeping an eye on how will the Warriors guard the
Speaker 1: Fox Sabonis dribble, handoffs and pick and rolls. Now last
Speaker 1: game when everyone was actually playing, and again we have
Speaker 1: to go way back to November for this, but they
Speaker 1: actually started with Draymond Green on Darreon Fox and Kevon
Speaker 1: Looney on Demonus Sabonus. It gave them the ability to
Speaker 1: switch if they needed to, and they feel comfortable with
Speaker 1: a guy like Draymond Green guarding out on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: And obviously ideally you don't want to put Kevon Looney
Speaker 1: out on the perimeter and to switch against Aron Fox.
Speaker 1: But they actually had some success there. Darreon Fox was
Speaker 1: thrown off by that specific matchup, and in many cases
Speaker 1: he was just passing the ball around looking for one
Speaker 1: of his teammates to create an advantage because he didn't
Speaker 1: really know what to do with it. I'm really curious
Speaker 1: to see how long they're going to be able to
Speaker 1: do that, because I think one of the biggest things
Speaker 1: that the Kings could be capable of doing is playing
Speaker 1: Kevon Looney off the floor in some of their best lineups.
Speaker 1: In that case, they're going to have to find a
Speaker 1: guard or a wing that is capable of guarding deer
Speaker 1: and Fox are at least doing a decent job there.
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins, I don't know will he be ready. Probably not.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's athletically ready for that matchup, and
Speaker 1: the last time they played back in November, they used
Speaker 1: him primarily to guard Harrison Barnes. But he is an
Speaker 1: option that you could see if he's feeling good physically.
Speaker 1: As the series progresses, he has a little bit more
Speaker 1: switchability to battle with Sabonis as well. You feel comfortable
Speaker 1: switching Draymond out, so that that would be an interesting
Speaker 1: one to look at. The big guy I'm looking at those,
Speaker 1: Gary Payton. I think he might actually be the key
Speaker 1: to this series for Golden State. I expect him to
Speaker 1: play big minutes and I expect him to pick up
Speaker 1: Deer and Fox the second he crossed the staff court,
Speaker 1: apply a bunch of ball pressure and to make him
Speaker 1: feel uncomfortable in every phase of the game. I use
Speaker 1: this as an example after that Thunder game a couple
Speaker 1: weeks ago. But Gary Payton is such an asset to
Speaker 1: be able to deploy him on the other team's best
Speaker 1: guard because he's so good at making them feel uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: He is incredibly big, and strong for his high at
Speaker 1: six foot three with the low center of gravity, so
Speaker 1: it's really difficult to knock him off the spots. You
Speaker 1: have to cleanly beat Gary Payton off the dribble. If
Speaker 1: you barely beat Gary Payton off the dribble just through
Speaker 1: physicality is special, and especially in a playoff environment, he's
Speaker 1: going to be able to corral you just by using
Speaker 1: his hands and his strength to get himself back in
Speaker 1: front of you. He had a very very successful fourth
Speaker 1: quarter against Shay Guild just Alexander in that game against
Speaker 1: the Thunder a few weeks ago. It is a big
Speaker 1: part of how the Warriors won that particular game. That
Speaker 1: is a huge matchup advantage for Golden State to have
Speaker 1: that in their back pockets. See, because here's the thing,
Speaker 1: especially in clutch situations, it's going to be vitally important
Speaker 1: for the Warriors to find a way to defend that
Speaker 1: action two on two. And here's why that matters. If
Speaker 1: you have to bring a third guy over, you are
Speaker 1: now creating closeout situations or advantage situations for Keegan Murray
Speaker 1: and Kevin Herder and Harrison Barnes, and all three of
Speaker 1: those guys are up over one point one points per
Speaker 1: spot up possession. They are all three amazing spot up players.
Speaker 1: They you know, specifically, Harrison Barnes is a good closeout attacker.
Speaker 1: Keegan Murray lights out from three. You know, Kevin Herder
Speaker 1: lights out from three and can do some stuff off
Speaker 1: the bounce as well. You put yourself in a very
Speaker 1: precarious position if you have to regularly help off of
Speaker 1: those guys to contain the Sabonus Fox pick and roll.
Speaker 1: So if you can force yourself or find a way
Speaker 1: to have some success defending that action two on two,
Speaker 1: then you prevent those advantage situations for the off ball
Speaker 1: players for the Kings, which will go a long way
Speaker 1: towards stagnating that King's offense, because not those guys aren't great,
Speaker 1: like we talked about earlier, at attacking a set elite defender,
Speaker 1: and so defending that action two on two is going
Speaker 1: to be vitally important. I believe that their best bet
Speaker 1: is going to be Gary Payton on ball, and I
Speaker 1: think in a clutch situations last seven minutes of the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter or so, you're gonna see Stephen Clay with
Speaker 1: Draymond and Gary Payton and either Jordan Pool or Dante DiVincenzo,
Speaker 1: depending on what the lineup kind of dictates. But I
Speaker 1: think you're gonna see a lot of Gary Payton in
Speaker 1: clutch situations in this series. And I also believe they're
Speaker 1: going to run a drop coverage. I think that, you know, again,
Speaker 1: traditional drop coverage works just fine as long as your
Speaker 1: guard can fight over the top of the screen well
Speaker 1: enough to continue to corral the guard into the rim. Protector.
Speaker 1: Draymond Green is amazing at playing that middle ground, in
Speaker 1: bating you into thinking the drop off passes open and
Speaker 1: sticking that arm out and grabbing it, or bating you
Speaker 1: into thinking that you've got to lay up, but then
Speaker 1: at the last second recovering and defending you at the rim.
Speaker 1: It's when there is separation on that ball screen where
Speaker 1: Darren Fox can get to that little fifteen foot jump
Speaker 1: shot that he makes so well and that little floater
Speaker 1: that he makes so well. That's where you end up
Speaker 1: in trouble. And so I think it's gonna come down
Speaker 1: to a drop coverage with Gary Payton and Draymond Green,
Speaker 1: and Gary Payton needing to do his job fighting over
Speaker 1: the top of the screen and applying that back rusher
Speaker 1: to continue to funnel Dear and Fox into Draymond at
Speaker 1: the rim. If they can do that, they can stay
Speaker 1: home off the ball, and that will go a long
Speaker 1: way in clutch situations to allowing the Warriors to get
Speaker 1: enough stops to win the series. Because you know the
Speaker 1: problem with switching, and again, I'm a big believer in
Speaker 1: switching in general, but you've got to have the right
Speaker 1: type of personnel to do so. And the Warriors are
Speaker 1: not a big team. That's just a fact. And so
Speaker 1: Demanus Sabonis being one of the best players in the
Speaker 1: league at at not only beating switches down low for quick,
Speaker 1: easy hook shots, he can even do it against big guy.
Speaker 1: I don't know many players in the league that are
Speaker 1: as gifted at getting his little short hook shot or
Speaker 1: his little short, little bank shot off the glass off
Speaker 1: regardless of defender other than Sabonis. He's just a master
Speaker 1: at hitting you with that shoulder at the right time
Speaker 1: to knock you off balance. You just don't quite get
Speaker 1: his enough lift so that he just barely gets enough
Speaker 1: separation to get that off, and he's just gonna make
Speaker 1: it every single time. And then he's excellent at passing
Speaker 1: out of double teams. I've seen some teams have success,
Speaker 1: like the Dallas Mavericks and their win against the Kings
Speaker 1: the other day. They did a really nice job doubling
Speaker 1: Sabonis and rotating out of it. But it's really difficult
Speaker 1: to do, and Sabonis has been one of the best
Speaker 1: players in the league at that. Specifically this year, he
Speaker 1: is either drawn a second defender or a hard double
Speaker 1: team on two hundred and ninety six post ups this year,
Speaker 1: leading to three hundred and ten points. He's actually been
Speaker 1: the fourth best post passer in the league to log
Speaker 1: at least one hundred passing possessions out of the post,
Speaker 1: behind Jannis Luca and actually a little surprise here, Julius
Speaker 1: Randall was one of the top three post passers in
Speaker 1: the league this year. So again, you want to try
Speaker 1: to avoid that double team situation as much as possible. Again,
Speaker 1: they may end up having to, in which case it'll
Speaker 1: be it'll be down to Steve Kur to line up
Speaker 1: the defensive rotations right and have the right personnel out
Speaker 1: there to be able to rotate out of it. But
Speaker 1: ideally you need to find a way to defend that
Speaker 1: action on too. The next major matchup I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: keeping an eye on can the Kings ever get a
Speaker 1: stop against this Warrior's offense when they need to. The
Speaker 1: Kings have been one of the worst defenses I've ever
Speaker 1: seen from a good team this year. It's pretty simple.
Speaker 1: They're awful in the front court, like Harrison Barnes and
Speaker 1: Demonisi Bonus are not cleaning up messes on the back
Speaker 1: line and historically throughout NBA history, and this is why
Speaker 1: I've never considered the Kings of championship contender. You have
Speaker 1: to have an elite defensive front court to win an
Speaker 1: NBA title, end of story, and the Kings just don't.
Speaker 1: But then on top of that, their backcourt presents some
Speaker 1: similar problems. Darren Fox is a solid point of attack defender,
Speaker 1: but Keegan Murray and Kevin Hurder are pretty bad. Harrison
Speaker 1: Barnes is you know, when he gets switched out into
Speaker 1: perimeter players is only okay. And they have better defensive
Speaker 1: options guys like Terrence Davis, Guys like Davion Mitchell. Kessler.
Speaker 1: Edwards has been a good defensive option for them here
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season, but they aren't
Speaker 1: in the same stratosphere offensively as Kevin Hurt or in
Speaker 1: Keegan Murray, right. So that's that tradeoff there is if
Speaker 1: they go to their better point of attack defenders, they
Speaker 1: lose a lot of their offensive skill in ball handling
Speaker 1: and shooting. And when they go with all their ball
Speaker 1: handling and shooting, they lose all that point of attack defense.
Speaker 1: I actually think one of the most interesting, you know,
Speaker 1: chess match pieces of this series is going to be
Speaker 1: Mike Brown trying to figure out that balance of defensive
Speaker 1: talent and offensive talent on the perimeter to give them
Speaker 1: a better chance of getting stops. But what's concerning what
Speaker 1: the Kings is there's not even there's not even encouraging
Speaker 1: stretch of defense. This year, they're twenty fourth and defensive
Speaker 1: writing for the season, and they were never good. They
Speaker 1: were twenty first in October twenty second, November fourteenth, in
Speaker 1: December sixteenth, in January twenty seventh, in February twenty second,
Speaker 1: in March twenty second, in April. So even if we're
Speaker 1: trying to be optimistic about a ceiling here, there's nothing
Speaker 1: I can't go like, hey, remember that time for ten
Speaker 1: straight games when they locked everyone up. No, that doesn't exist,
Speaker 1: and they've been especially bad against the Warriors when Curry
Speaker 1: is on the floor. Against the Kings this year, the
Speaker 1: Warriors are scoring one hundred and twenty four points per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions. To give you an idea, the Kings
Speaker 1: are twenty fourth in the league in defense, allowing one
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen points per one hundred possessions. Their defense
Speaker 1: gets eight points worse against the Warriors. Now, again, it
Speaker 1: was back in November, and that's probably what the Kings
Speaker 1: are telling themselves in the locker room. But have the
Speaker 1: King's gotten better defensively since November. No, They've been bottom
Speaker 1: ten in the league the last three months. It's not
Speaker 1: even like they're trending in the right direction. Unfilmed, the
Speaker 1: Kings were blitzing every step screen, but they weren't just
Speaker 1: doing that like they do. They were doing these kind
Speaker 1: of half hearted blitzes on like random things, like a
Speaker 1: like an Andrew Wiggins dribble handoff. There's a bucket in
Speaker 1: the first quarter of their game back in November where
Speaker 1: a little handoff of Wiggins and Herder and Fox both
Speaker 1: like double team him for no reason, and it's like
Speaker 1: a drow off to Looney and a kick out to
Speaker 1: the other corner for like a wide open three for
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson. They're just they do these soft blitzes. And again,
Speaker 1: like when you blitz, you have to blitz in such
Speaker 1: an aggressive way that it forces a looping pass, which
Speaker 1: buys you an opportunity to rotate on the back end.
Speaker 1: If you sloppy blitz, if you slow and passively blitz,
Speaker 1: they're gonna rip you to shreds because it's gonna be
Speaker 1: an easy pass to the short rollman in an easy
Speaker 1: pass on the kickout to the wide open shooter. The
Speaker 1: Warriors are way too good at navigating those four on
Speaker 1: three situations to buy them a massive advantage. You have
Speaker 1: to be sharper from a game plan standpoint, I think
Speaker 1: Mike Brown will probably go with a similar type of strategy.
Speaker 1: They just need to be way sharper. And again, it's
Speaker 1: gonna come down to it's gonna come down to that
Speaker 1: balance for Mike Brown, because they might have to do
Speaker 1: something like squeeze a guy like Keegan Murray at the
Speaker 1: rotation or Kevin Hurder out of the rotation, not entirely,
Speaker 1: but like a quick pull, and he might have to
Speaker 1: sacrifice some of that ball handling and shooting and go
Speaker 1: with like, all right, we're gonna go with Harrison Barnes
Speaker 1: and we're gonna go with Kessler Edwards and Deer and
Speaker 1: Fox because if Kessler, Edwards and Deer and Fox really
Speaker 1: locking on the perimeter, then maybe just maybe you have
Speaker 1: a chance to get enough stops. But it's but it's
Speaker 1: not easy to do. And the Golden State offense is
Speaker 1: an absolute blender. They typically have at least three threats
Speaker 1: on the floor at any given time, whether that's Steph
Speaker 1: Clay and Dante de Vincenzo or Steph Clay and Jordan Pool.
Speaker 1: They've got threats all over the floor. If Andrew Wiggins
Speaker 1: is healthy, he's a threat as well. He averaged almost
Speaker 1: twenty points a game and last year's postseason. And then
Speaker 1: the idea they so the Warriors actually run more sets.
Speaker 1: And again when I when I think of a set,
Speaker 1: I don't it's not an action, it's a set. So
Speaker 1: for instance, a lot of teams run actions, and action
Speaker 1: is like I dribble up the floor and I do
Speaker 1: a dribble handoff and then guy kind of tries to
Speaker 1: get downhill and make a play. Technically, that's an action
Speaker 1: it's a two man action, a dribble handoff or high
Speaker 1: pick and rolls technically an action even like backside action.
Speaker 1: So if like some guy's running a high pick and
Speaker 1: roll while the other two shooters are screening for each other,
Speaker 1: those are two actions. A set is a legitimately designed
Speaker 1: five person action, right. The Warriors run more of those
Speaker 1: than anybody in the league, and it's not close. And
Speaker 1: they complicate those actions with multiple threats in any given possession.
Speaker 1: So for instance, they're split cut, they're split cut sets
Speaker 1: that they run. It'll be you have to defend this
Speaker 1: guy coming off of that. You know, like the guy
Speaker 1: make the post entry and he'll go screen away, and
Speaker 1: you have to watch out for the guy he's screening for.
Speaker 1: Is he's coming back towards the post. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, if you overhelp that dude slip into the rim,
Speaker 1: or if you ignore the guy with the basketball, Draymond
Speaker 1: Green might fake your dribble handoff and go to the basket,
Speaker 1: there's three threats on that play. They run this five
Speaker 1: outset all the time these days, where like Steph Curry
Speaker 1: will run a high ball screen with Draymond Green as
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson is relocating. It's kind of like a variation
Speaker 1: in the Spain pick and roll where Clay will come
Speaker 1: off of Draymond to the other side of the wing
Speaker 1: and they have the entire side cleared for him to attack.
Speaker 1: So even if you chase Clay over the top of
Speaker 1: the screen and get to him before he can shoot,
Speaker 1: he's ripping through to the baseline and there's nobody home. Yea.
Speaker 1: They have an incredibly sophisticated offense, and you have to
Speaker 1: be incredibly sharp. You have to communicate, you have to
Speaker 1: play hard, you have to rotate, you have to apply
Speaker 1: ball pressure so their passing gets a little disrupted. There's
Speaker 1: so many things you have to do well to defend
Speaker 1: the Warriors. It's a blender and the King's I'm just
Speaker 1: not sure they're up for it. It's a matchup that
Speaker 1: I do not see going the King's way. Last, but
Speaker 1: not least, can the Warriors keep the Kings out of transition?
Speaker 1: Couple of specific stats, only the Houston Rockets turned the
Speaker 1: ball over more than the Golden State Warriors. Now, to
Speaker 1: be clear, a lot of people have viewed his recklessness,
Speaker 1: and don't get me wrong, the Warriors can be reckless
Speaker 1: from time to time, but to me, it more has
Speaker 1: to do with passing. So the vast majority of teams
Speaker 1: run a dribble, a dribble attack offense. So it's some
Speaker 1: kind of you know, get a guy coming off of
Speaker 1: some type of screen, whether it's a dribble handoff or
Speaker 1: an off ball wide pinned down or a pick and roll,
Speaker 1: and that guy is just trying to attack and he's
Speaker 1: making reads. So there might be a handful of possession
Speaker 1: passes on every possession, but for them, they have a
Speaker 1: lot of possessions. These high pick and roll teams, especially
Speaker 1: or if there's not a single pass, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: Darius Garland will dribble the ball off the floor and
Speaker 1: call for a ball screen, and if the dude goes
Speaker 1: under the screen, or if he can get to the
Speaker 1: fifteen footmark, he's taking a fifteen foot jump shot, there
Speaker 1: might not be a single pass on that possession. The
Speaker 1: Warriors passed the ball more than any team in the league.
Speaker 1: They accomplish less off the dribble and more with the
Speaker 1: past than any team in the league. And so by
Speaker 1: virtue of all those passes, there's just more opportunity for turnovers,
Speaker 1: and they do turn the ball over a lot. Here's
Speaker 1: the problem. The Kings play in transition on more than
Speaker 1: twenty percent of their possessions, which is the most in
Speaker 1: the entire league. They convert steals into points at a
Speaker 1: rate of one point four two points per possession, which
Speaker 1: is very, very good. So one of the biggest ways
Speaker 1: that Golden State can breathe life into the Kings here
Speaker 1: or give them a chance to win this series is
Speaker 1: by not taking care of the basketball. And again, there's
Speaker 1: gonna be turnovers. They throw a million passes, but it's
Speaker 1: the difference between averaging fifteen turnovers a game for the
Speaker 1: series or averaging nineteen turnovers a game for the series
Speaker 1: could be the difference between whether or not you win
Speaker 1: or lose this King's team. I think again, we talked
Speaker 1: about this earlier with the two on two action. I
Speaker 1: believe the Warriors are capable of getting stops in the
Speaker 1: half court of this series in this series in a
Speaker 1: way that the Kings cannot. But if you allow them
Speaker 1: to get out in transition a ton, it will mitigate
Speaker 1: that advantage and put this series into much more of
Speaker 1: a toss up type of territory. So it's vitally important
Speaker 1: for Golden State to take care of the basketball in
Speaker 1: this series. I'm picking the Warriors in six. I was
Speaker 1: tempted to pick them in five, but I think the
Speaker 1: Wiggins piece and some of the transition elements and just
Speaker 1: kind of getting up to speed to the postseason level
Speaker 1: of play will be a little bit of a disadvantage
Speaker 1: for Golden State early in the series. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if they dropped Game one. I expect them to
Speaker 1: steal one of the first two in Sacramento and then
Speaker 1: win games three and four, lose Game five, and then
Speaker 1: win Game six. That's my best guess as of right now.
Speaker 1: And again I did the same ran yesterday for Cavs Nicks.
Speaker 1: But predictions are just predictions. They're just my best guesses
Speaker 1: based on what I see on film. If I was,
Speaker 1: if any of us were capable of predicting every playoffs series,
Speaker 1: we'd all be in Vegas making money gambling on these things.
Speaker 1: There's eight first round series. I'm gonna pick them. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna get all of them right, as a matter
Speaker 1: of fact. If I do, it'll be the lucky And
Speaker 1: my guess is you guys with your predictions will have
Speaker 1: similar luck. Right. So again, I'm just doing my best
Speaker 1: to make these guesses, these predictions, but I'm not, you know,
Speaker 1: not no Stradomius here. I can't. I can't you know,
Speaker 1: see the future. So, and that's the beauty of the
Speaker 1: game of basketball. You gotta play the games. The Warriors
Speaker 1: are a significant favorite. I believe they're going to win,
Speaker 1: they have the best player, they have all these advantages.
Speaker 1: But you gotta go play the games, and the games
Speaker 1: could go either way. And that's the beauty of the
Speaker 1: game of basketball. I'm picking I'm picking the Warriors because
Speaker 1: I think they'll score easily against the Kings. I think
Speaker 1: they have the personnel to get enough stops in the
Speaker 1: half court against the Kings, and I think they have
Speaker 1: the best player in the series by a mile. Now,
Speaker 1: similar to what I did with has Nicks yesterday, I
Speaker 1: want to give the case for how the Kings can win.
Speaker 1: If the Kings want to win the series, they need
Speaker 1: to run as much as possible to generate as many
Speaker 1: easy points in transition as possible. Another huge advantage of
Speaker 1: running out in transition is generating cross matches. So, for instance,
Speaker 1: if you're having a ton of success by stopping deer
Speaker 1: and Fox and Sabonis with Gary Peyton and Draymond Green.
Speaker 1: If you push the ball in transition, you might get
Speaker 1: more possessions where Clay Thompson is on Deer and Fox,
Speaker 1: or where Steph currys on Deer and Fox, or where
Speaker 1: somebody else is demonis Sabonis because Draymond didn't get down
Speaker 1: the floor in time. Like pushing in transition generates cross matches,
Speaker 1: and then you have so much shooting on the floor
Speaker 1: that they can't scram out of those gives you an
Speaker 1: opportunity to run those actions with better with better advantages. Right,
Speaker 1: So pushing and transition is a big one. Secondly, Mike
Speaker 1: Brown has to find a good balance of offensive and
Speaker 1: defensive talent. Guy, my guess is that they'll end up
Speaker 1: going with somebody like Terrence Davis or Keslarwards or even
Speaker 1: Davion Mitchell over one of Keegan Murray or Kevin Herder
Speaker 1: as the series progresses, when he realizes that he needs
Speaker 1: more defensive talent on the floor, but finding that balance
Speaker 1: without sacrificing too much offensively, but get it giving your
Speaker 1: defensive fighting chance, that's what can give you a chance
Speaker 1: to stay in these games. And then when you stay
Speaker 1: in the games. You need Deer and Fox to somehow
Speaker 1: at least play near Steph Curry's level. Doesn't have to
Speaker 1: outplay him necessarily, but he needs to get near Steph
Speaker 1: Curry's level for the Kings to have any chance to
Speaker 1: win the series. All right, guys, that is all I
Speaker 1: have for right now. We're gonna be coming back later
Speaker 1: tonight after the final buzzer of Lakers Wolves to break
Speaker 1: down the two seven eight games. Wednesday, I should have
Speaker 1: at least two more series previews for you guys. Thursday,
Speaker 1: we're doing a kind of like a Bigger Picture playoff
Speaker 1: preview with Carson, and then we'll have a couple more
Speaker 1: season previews on Friday, and then we'll get into the
Speaker 1: grind on Saturday. As always, I appreciate you guys. I'll
Speaker 1: see you later tonight. The volume