WEBVTT - Surveillance: Iran Risk Has Gone Down, Eurasia's Rome Says 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leie. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.200 Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Our 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.639 top story. I RAN's striking back, firing more than a 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:32.640 dozen miss outside the Rocky Air basis hosting US troops. 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.800 Foreign Minister Muhammed jabats a Reef, tweeting the following around, 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:38.879 concluded proportionate measures in self defense, adding we do not 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:42.760 seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression. 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:46.559 The focus now assessing the damage done, US official insisting 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:49.519 there were no US casualties, and, as Tom points out, 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:53.200 the President expected to address the nation later today. Here's 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:56.040 to take from Eurasia Group quote it RAN's attacks appear 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.920 designed for maximum domestic effect with a minimum escalatory risk. 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:05.240 Trump will likely declined to retaliate militarily. Eurisia joined us now, 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:07.600 Henry rhyme, you write a group global macro analysts joined 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.080 us on the phone. Henry, great to catch up with you. 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:12.760 Walk me through what gives you the conviction that Iran 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.880 has managed to appease the discontent at home and minimize 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:21.000 the prospect of escalatory risk in the region. Hi, good morning, 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.759 Tom and John. I think at this point what our 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:27.240 our our biggest question going into last night was what 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:30.160 Trump would do once I ran strikes back. We were 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:33.399 fairly convinced that Iran would would would do so. The 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:37.000 domestic pressure was extreme, and and and and I think 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.240 looking at what Iran pulled off last night with no 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:45.160 US casualties and a clear statement from the leadership that 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.480 that that this round is over, I think gives us 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.880 confidence that the President can come out today and say 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:57.160 mission accomplished, essentially a perhaps a speak a speech version 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.960 of his tweet last night. All as well, the last 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:03.280 time we said mission accomplished, that didn't work out so well. 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.320 What is going to be the outcome of a president 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.919 saying in his press conference mission accomplished. How will the 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.040 that be taken by Capitol Hill and far more, how 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:17.440 will that be taken by Tehran? Yeah, well, that's perhaps 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.720 a bad choice of words on my part, but but 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:24.200 I think the Iranians will uh take that positively. Frankly, Look, 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:25.960 I mean, what we're not out of the wood. Yet 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.640 I want to emphasize that point the the the Iranians. 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:33.880 I I don't think consider the debt of the Sulimani 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.920 assassination to be fully paid. And I think we'll see 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:41.560 a return to the kind of low level attacks, especially 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.840 in the cyber world and in terms of terrorism that 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:48.160 that the Iranians have have perfected over the decades. But 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:52.000 in terms of a risk of a direct military clash, 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:55.520 I think assuming the President comes out and says we 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.600 got the job done, then then then I think that 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.480 risk has gone down, and let's talk about objective. Secretary 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.040 Pompeio said he wanted to establish an effective deterrence. Question 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.040 now is whether taking out General Selimony was enough. And 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.160 after the events of last night, where they feel confident 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.960 that they have established the terrance with that air strike 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:17.600 last week, well I think they will. I think the 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:19.959 the US will be able to point to this moment 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:23.640 or quite a few I mean certainly years, if not longer, 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:28.880 down down the line, to demonstrate a what it what 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:32.680 it looks like when the US loses patients uh with 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:35.600 with Iranian activity. So so I think that the Iranians 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:39.720 are are fairly chastened by what happened, and you saw 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.520 that with what they decided to do last night. They 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:47.640 launched sophisticated ballistic missiles. Absolutely, but they caused no casualties 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.480 and it was a single round, if you will, of retaliation. 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:55.120 I think that demonstrates that the Iranians were were quite spooked. 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.440 But Henry, this is so important. I mean, it's like 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.800 a sterile kind of retaliation. Did you say there were 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:05.240 no casualties at least based on President's reports? Is there 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:10.400 any way to run a war? Well, I mean, uh, 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.720 we were we we we were expecting the Iranians to 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:17.800 incur some casualties. But but it looks as though there 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:21.479 was a good deal of concern about what that um, 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.400 what that would cause. I mean sometimes, I mean with 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:28.360 with things like this, you often there is um there's 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:32.000 risk in over interpreting actions of a of a kinetic 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.279 type that we don't know if it was an accident 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.440 or intentional that that nobody was killed here. But I 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.880 think the totality of the events last night seemed to 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:44.640 indicate that the Iranians, uh decided to tone it down 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:46.760 a notch. Henry. I think what was surprising for many, 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.440 even experts looking at the country is that this was 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.240 a conventional strike launched from Iran by Iranian forces. It 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.719 was direct forces to direct forces. This wasn't fire proxies, 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:59.200 this wasn't at US allies. And I think that's what 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.760 everyone was quite surprised by, Henry. Do you really think 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:03.640 that we can just move on from that as the 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:08.320 dice progress, Well, I mean, I think we can move 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:11.039 on in terms of uh that there will be a 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:15.400 return to a kind of low level of of conflict 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.800 that's kind of pervaded over the past few years, and 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:22.960 extraordinary levels of of tension and a good deal of concern, 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.840 especially about the Iranian nuclear program, which I think is 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.480 a clear option for the Iranian to continue to escalate 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.400 at this point. But but I would say that the 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:38.559 risk and and and and panic about a Iran US 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:43.680 military to military confrontation that takes out shipping in the 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:47.240 Persian Gulf, destroys energy infrastructure in a big way. I 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:49.560 think that risk has gone way down after last night. 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:51.760 If you're just joining us, Henry rome with US. Here's 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.000 the Eurasia Group, and of course we've been featuring their 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:57.280 top risks of and and we're thrilled the Dector room 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.240 could be with us here a few days ago and 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.520 now joins us on this important morning. What I heard 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:06.680 this morning, Uh, Henry, from Rupert Harrison over in London 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.080 with his government work with the United Kingdom, from Sir 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:14.119 Tom Beckett with on the ground experience in the Middle East, 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:18.280 and from Ambassador Hormats was very simple the tone of 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:23.279 the President. What kind of tone should the President affect 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:28.680 this morning? Well, I think the most uh productive from 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:32.360 kind of trying to deescalate the conflicts would be not 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:36.120 to go on a victory parade about the killing of 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.320 General Sulamani, not to kind of rub it in the 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:45.320 Iranians face, either the the assassination or the ineffectiveness of 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:49.880 the UH missile launch last night. Unfortunately, I don't think 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.400 that's the President's style. I mean the I think it 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.960 would have things would have turned out quite differently if 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:59.640 the US had actually just not claimed responsibility for the 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:02.840 Silman on the assassination, as you know, in the kind 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.440 of Israeli practice of just letting it be uh, letting 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:08.920 it be vague. But but but I think the President 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.000 will find it hard not to botht uh and and 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.960 perhaps gloat a bit this morning. But I think at 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.400 the end of the day, as as long as he's 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.840 somewhat restrained, and I would hope that the past few 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:26.680 days have demonstrated to him clearly the risks that going 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:30.000 up against Iran can entail, then then then I would 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.240 expect things to be all right. Henry. By now, we're 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:35.160 all familiar with the president's approach, but over the last 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:37.360 twelve hours he has been quite restrained. We have had 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:41.040 a single twite suggesting he'll address the nation later this morning. 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:43.200 It made me just wonder what was happening inside the 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.360 White House last night when the president was so restrained 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:49.320 the decision making process at the White House? Who is 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.240 informing the decision making process? Are they providing a menu 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.800 of responses for the President of United States again or 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.800 strongly counseling for the president to do one thing over 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.320 the other. Your thoughts on what's happening right now as 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:05.240 the United States calculates its response, Sure, I would expect 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:08.920 that that that that the military, as always, will provide 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:13.640 him a range of of options. Though I think at 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:17.680 this stage she will be strongly counseled to take this 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.960 blow and uh call it a day, if you will. 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:25.239 I think the risk of retaliating significantly and and having 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.160 this spiral further is just very high. And I think 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.480 he's at a he's at a point now politically where 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.040 he can claim victory. Will final question for you, Henry 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:36.040 China's role expected to be in the United States next 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:40.599 week on January for a signing ceremony closer to the 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:43.360 Iranian certainly more so than the United States. What do 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.120 you think that role will be in the coming weeks, 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:48.280 if they will establish one at all. So, I think 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:52.360 from the Chinese point of view, their big objectives here 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:56.240 with regards to Iran is no war and no nuclear 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.240 weapon and everything else in between there is negotiable. Think 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:04.600 as the Iranians continue to escalate on the nuclear program, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:06.840 the Chinese are one of the more important countries to 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.320 watch about how much pressure they are on Iran to 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.680 try to keep things contained. So, yes, they are closer 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.280 to Iran, but they also have a lot of leverage, 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.880 so I would expect them to play an active, albeit 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:23.120 quiet role in trying to tone things down or urge 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.000 the Iranian the tone things now. Andry Rome, thank you 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:27.920 so much. Will you raise your group this morning as 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.520 we move through the morning, with the markets doing better. 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:47.199 John Farro now in our studio is an important guests, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.480 an important guests. Indeed, great to have you with us. 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:52.520 Pop hole mass kissing to associates, Vice Chairman, I'm best 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:56.240 always great to catch up with you. The allies have gone, 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:59.040 miss Where are they? Where are the Europeans? Why they 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.880 not more vocal over the last week? Well, I think 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:05.280 the US has kept Europe more or less out of 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:10.160 its diplomacy on a wide range of issues. There are 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:14.439 obviously major trade frictions uh and the US did not 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:19.320 notify its allies with respect to the strike and the 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:24.160 killing of General Solimani, and doesn't seem to have been 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:27.080 engaging the Europeans on virtually anything that has to do 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:29.400 with the Middle East, which is a major departure from 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:32.120 the past, when the United States worked hand in glove 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:36.000 with the Europeans on a wide range of Middle Eastern issues, 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.800 not always convincingly, but at least it worked with them. 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.480 There was a hope this morning that we avoid escalation risk, 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:43.280 underlined by the fact that we're just hearing from a 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.839 US official that there were no US casualties in those 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:50.679 strikes overnight. But the question remains America's future in a rock? 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:53.960 What is it? Bob Well? I think for the moment, 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.440 now we understand that we need to do what we can. 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:01.760 I hope we understand least to help stabilized a very 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:07.679 unstable Iraqi situation. If Iraq continues to deteriorate and become 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:12.720 more unstable, They're two beneficiaries. One is Iran. Iran's already 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:18.000 extremely influential in Iraq because Iraq is predominantly a Sunni 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.680 a Shia country, although Saddam was Sunny, the government now 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.760 and most of the leaders are Shia. And the other 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:31.079 is that the Russians, now having made major steps forward 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.880 and increasing their influence in Syria, will now be aiming 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:39.319 to increase their influence in Iraq as well. Putin's visit 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.199 to Syria, I'm sure it was not an accident and 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:46.840 probably was planned before the killing of Sulimani, but um 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.480 now he is playing a major role in Syria and 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.560 will probably attempt to do so to a greater degree 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.080 in Iraq. The Russians and the Iranians don't always get along, 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.760 but they both want to defeat Isis, and they both 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:03.640 I think we'll be competing for influence but also trying 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.360 to cooperate to the extent they can and and and 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:08.880 Ron wants to get the US out of the region, 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.680 so does Russia. They work together to do it or 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.880 will they also have conflict between them. And that's the 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:17.839 final point, is perhaps the most important point. When you 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.440 try and illuminate the path forward, what the future looks like, 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:22.560 you have to look at individual objectives and quite clearly 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:25.080 the Iranians making it clear right at night their objective 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:26.520 is not war, but their objective is to get the 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:28.560 United States out of the region. How do they come 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.959 about doing that, Well, that's a complicated thing. First of all, 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:36.240 they have increased their influence in Baghdad as as we've seen. 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:40.800 And second now they're going to portray the us UH 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:43.440 in an adverse light as a result of all this 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:48.120 and demonstrate that they UH have backed off and try 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.360 to deescalate and I want to play a greater role. 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.520 They don't want more tensions in the region. They're going 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:57.640 to advertise that point as well. But the other is 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.480 that they still want to demonstrate they're going to be 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.640 tough on ISIS that ISIS is not defeated, and Iraq 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.400 needs them to defeat ISIS. And if the US is 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:12.400 an uncertain ally and an uncertain presence, then the Iraqi 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.280 government will have to call on them to a greater 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:18.559 degree to make sure ISSIS doesn't undergo a resurgence and 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:22.000 visitor homs. You served the nation under both Republicans and 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.880 Democrats over the years, the last tour of duty with 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:28.040 Secretary Clinton and with President Obama. What do we most 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:32.240 get wrong about the day of a given secretary of state? 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.000 I mean we see Secretary of State Pompeo come out 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.000 and make comments and that what's the behind the scenes 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.880 reality for any secretary of state, particularly given this moment. 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:45.079 Rule one for the secretary of State is make sure 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.680 of two things. One that you have influence over the president, 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.320 that the president listens to you, that you have access 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.280 to the president, that you are heard uh not only 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.720 by the President by but by his national security apparatus 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.120 in the White House. But the second is that you 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:07.640 understand what the president wants. Because the most confusing thing 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.720 to other countries is if the Secretary of State says 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.720 one thing or thinks one thing, and the president says 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:17.120 or thinks something else. It's very confusing to both our 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.760 allies because they don't know who to listen to and 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:23.800 to our adversaries since they're not sure what to do, 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.960 and therefore they tend to take advantage of those gaps. 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:29.120 And John we saw that, of course with this question 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.960 about the cultural targets within Iran, and that had to 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.560 be when it's a final question, let's ask it. How 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.360 much dayline is the between what Secretary Pompeio would like 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:40.160 to do and what the President of United States ultimately wants. 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.040 Hard to say at this point, but Secretary Pompeio has 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:47.760 taken in general a much tougher line on Iran. The 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:52.160 President ran for office on the ground, so pulling the 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.960 US back from the Middle East in general, So there 0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:00.000 clearly are differences in emphasis. In the end, the President, 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:03.680 of course prevails in these things. He's the commander in chief. Ambassador, 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:06.040 thank you so much for joining us today. Ambassador Robert 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:22.880 Hormess's with Kissinger Associates, joining us now in studio as 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:27.600 a gentleman who's truly expert on this. Greg Ferrell was 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:33.320 a distinguished career in journalism looking at process of courts, 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:38.040 not criminality, not civil issues, but just simply the making 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.560 of the process what is the process of this press conference? 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.760 What are your thoughts after observing an hour? In five minutes? 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:49.200 Greg Um, First of all, this is an extraordinary thing 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:53.840 to have a chief executive fighting allegations in a different country. 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.280 This the whole saga that's gotten to to this point. 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.440 So good question. I was thinking about this. What's his 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.040 point today? A Um, this should be. I think, like 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.040 the prosecutors, he needs to make a case that the 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.960 Japanese authorities are wrong, that there's something wrong with the system. 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:14.280 That's a legitimate, you know, platform to take. I think 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:18.240 he's getting into too much detail too soon. Um that 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.000 a twenty minute summary of this is what's wrong. I'm 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.880 happy to play this out over time. But he's like 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.720 he's trying a case right now this morning and in 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:28.280 in the study of this that you have done and 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.960 you're truly expert in this. Does he hire Sullivan and 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:35.480 Cromweller name another law firm to go out and represent 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:40.240 him in Japan or with the Japanese legal system? Is 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.960 he is outside of Japan? Can he do that? I 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:47.640 don't know. I do know he's been handled by a 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.760 number of major law firms, including Paul weiss Um where 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.000 his primary U S firm over there. But I think 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.240 that bridge has been burned. I think any like attempt 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:01.040 by a firm to at least it too soon right now. 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:06.000 And he's he's getting personal. He mentioned Pearl Harbor like 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.919 you know, he's going ballistic right off. Ballistic is a 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.800 professional legal phrase of journalists ues. We would not want 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.520 to use it. Actually after thought went ballistic last night. 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:20.080 Now that I think Greg, seriously here, what's the next 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.160 step for him after this lengthy press conference in Q 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:32.439 and A, Um, this continues to be a public relations battle. Um, 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:36.280 he needs to radio. You gotta keep talking. Okay, sorry, 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:39.760 except you're so thoughtful. You always got me to be slower. 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.159 But he needs to keep up the public relations battle. 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:45.719 I think he needs to bring other people in. He 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.240 has to do a better job or at least continue 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.479 with trying to demonstrate the the what he described as 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:55.440 the patent unfairness of how he was treated in Japan. 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:58.040 So this is going to go on for some time. 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.240 I think ideally, if you could find a neutral third 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:05.520 country like the US where something like this could be adjudicated, uh, 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:07.960 that would be a you know, there must be a 0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:10.399 face saving way. I think that's what he's going to 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.119 look for in the Japanese eventually might look for a 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.600 face saving way without them backing down completely. Can he 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:18.159 leave and go somewhere? Can he go very quickly here? 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.440 Can he go to Paris? Can he come to New York? No? 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.680 He can go to Paris, yes, New York no. Because 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:27.679 because strangely, the United States signed an extradition treaty with Japan, 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:32.440 just along with South Korea. I'm not I didn't. I'm 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:34.520 not sure why this happened, but the fact that it 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:37.120 does have it means that it doesn't mean US will 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.159 necessarily have to turn him over, but it just you know, 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:42.720 creates a legal mechanism for that to happen. Greg, thank 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:44.520 you so much for joining us on a short notice. 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.080 Mr Ferrell truly expert on the travails of Mr Gone. 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:05.359 The scope and scale of Africa is extraordinary and any 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:07.879 time we could get a vision into it, it is 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:12.600 quite important. There's a gentleman in Nigeria who, through family 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.040 and his grandfather and great grandfather were quite successful in 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:20.280 West African business. There is a gentleman in Nigeria who 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.000 has done better than good David Rubinstein with a peer 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:27.320 to peer conversation with Mr Dan Gotti of Nigeria. Here 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:31.600 is Mr Rubenstein and the scope of Africa. Okay, so 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.159 in terms of Africa itself generally, are you bullish on 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.960 Africa's prospects as a place to in which people can 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.959 invest private equity firms or industrial companies to invest. I 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.200 think I'm very, very bullish when it comes to Africa, 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.879 and it is the main reason David to they we 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:54.560 have twenty billion dollars though I invest in all you 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.119 know what tele which will finish by the end of 0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:00.960 next day. First quota of you, I mean in the 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.639 next two years. Listen in the next two years, David 0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:09.040 Rubinstein speaking with Elko. Then go to Mr Rubinstein joins us. Now, David, 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:13.280 what an interesting individual. Give our American audience a little 0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:17.240 scope and scale of who this gentleman is. Okay. Aliko 0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:20.639 Dante is the wealthiest man in Africa. So it's a 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.680 continent of a billion plus people and he is by 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:27.040 far the wealthiest person. Range. His net worth ranges from 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.520 twenty to thirty billion, depending on the stock market by 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.000 the time. Um he's a Nigerian. His he was from 0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:35.840 a very wealthy family, but he was not given money 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.640 when he started, and he basically built the largest cement 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.560 business in Nigeria and then the largest cement business in Africa. 0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:46.160 And he's used that to build into other areas petro chemicals, 0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:50.720 particularly building a large refinery, the largest refinery now in Nigeria. UM. 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.280 He is a very honest person, very philanthropic. He's very 0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:56.960 involved with Bill Gates and philanthropic things in Africa and 0:20:56.960 --> 0:21:01.679 around the world. So he's quite pressive individual, very modest 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.960 on assuming in Nigeria. He drives his own car around 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:08.439 without security guards. UM. He's very accessible to people, so 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:12.320 he's quite a likable person in addition to being very successful. 0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:14.800 And David, what's so extraordinary and I'd love for you 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:17.959 to comment on this with your expertise at Carlyle. He 0:21:18.040 --> 0:21:20.680 did what's so hard to do. He didn't sell out 0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:24.120 to Lafarge years ago, did he? He did not. Um. 0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:26.240 Lafarge wanted to buy him and at the time he 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:28.600 probably could have used Lafarge because he was struggling at 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:32.359 the beginning. But he uh built this big business and 0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:34.919 it's by far the biggest cement business now. He was 0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:38.240 probably aided by the fact though he wasn't responsible for it. 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:42.400 It's it's not easy to import cement into Nigeria, and 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.359 so by building the biggest cement company in Nigeria, he 0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.160 had a very large market uh in which to work. 0:21:49.400 --> 0:21:52.000 But he's built cement businesses in other countries in Africa 0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:54.800 as well. So very impressive, very smart, low key. If 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.000 you were to have dinner with him, you wouldn't realize 0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:00.120 he's fabulously wealthy or fabulously successful. Were very well known 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:03.760 in Africa, very modest and unassuming David. It's interesting. This 0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:06.000 is a fascinating interview from my perspective because I just 0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:09.280 I was not aware of Mr Dante. Is he have 0:22:09.440 --> 0:22:11.879 any sense that he would like to raise his profile 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:16.080 in the West. Well, you may know that from time 0:22:16.080 --> 0:22:20.320 to time you'll see ads on CNN, dan Gote Industries 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:23.080 and so forth, and those are probably raising his profile 0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:25.800 a little bit. But most of his investments, I would say, 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:29.400 far as I know, of his investments are really in Africa. 0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:32.280 He hasn't really diversified out of Africa yet. He might 0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:35.080 do that at some point. Um. He has a number 0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:38.400 of daughters and they will ultimately be involved in investing 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:42.080 some of his money. No sons and he's uh, you know, 0:22:42.480 --> 0:22:46.160 a well respected person. He doesn't use politics to get ahead. Uh. 0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:48.440 He knows all the political figures, but he basically built 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:50.919 a very big business and that's the source of his strength. 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:53.760 One time for one more question, David Rubinsteter, And of 0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:56.320 course this goes to something John Farrell said to me. 0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:59.159 Farrell emailed and said, you've got to ask, do you 0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:01.439 have an up to eight on his desire for the 0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.400 number one Arsenal fan in the world to take out 0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:09.679 Arsenal give us the Rubenstein update. He is fascinated by, 0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:13.159 uh by what we what is called football, we call soccer, 0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:17.080 and I would say that, uh um, it's something that 0:23:17.280 --> 0:23:19.760 has an appeal to people in certain parts of the 0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:23.680 world that Americans probably can't understand. But it's much bigger 0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:27.120 to people in Africa or in Europe than football American 0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:29.480 football is to us, or to baseball is to us. 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:32.679 And so he is a gigantic football fan. There's no 0:23:32.680 --> 0:23:35.560 doubt about it, exactly. David Rubenstein, thank you so much 0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:39.280 for joining us. David Rubinstein show Peer to Peer Conversations 0:23:39.320 --> 0:23:43.440