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Speaker 1: There are three weeks to go, twenty one days left

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Speaker 1: until America decides it chooses the forty seventh president of

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Speaker 1: the United States. I'm thrilled today to be joined by

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Speaker 1: Greg Strimple and Patrick Toomey, two veteran polsters. Gregor Republican,

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Speaker 1: Patrick a Democrat. Both are more experienced than I could

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Speaker 1: hope to name in the course of an hour. Between

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Speaker 1: the presidential campaigns, US Senate governors races, House races, ballot initiatives,

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Speaker 1: corporate initiatives, and everything in between. They are the two

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Speaker 1: pollsters right now leading the bipartisan, nonpartisan Cook Political Reports

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Speaker 1: assessment of where the race stands. This has always been

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Speaker 1: the gold standard amongst all of the polls. This is

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Speaker 1: the one that the pros look at. This is the

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Speaker 1: one that the people who are investing oodles of money

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Speaker 1: look at as you come down to the stretch to

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Speaker 1: exactly where does the race stand. No bullshit, no bs,

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Speaker 1: no leaning on the numbers, no false methodologies, just the

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Speaker 1: science of public opinion research. So let me just welcome

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Speaker 1: Greg and Patrick. Thank you for joining me today, Thank

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Speaker 1: you for having us, thank you. I'm somebody who has

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Speaker 1: sat in the room and listened to a lot of

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Speaker 1: polsters around the table give their take on the race

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Speaker 1: and on the numbers. And when you're sitting in a

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Speaker 1: campaign around the table, there's a lot of egos at play.

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Speaker 1: Now there's the data guys at play, and everybody is

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Speaker 1: sitting there. And so before we get into this discussion

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Speaker 1: and what polling is and what it's not, which I'm

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Speaker 1: going to turn over you guys to explain, and my

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Speaker 1: hope is you do it as brilliantly as you did

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Speaker 1: on the Politico podcast asked with Eugene Daniels. But for

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Speaker 1: everybody who's watching, there will be this moment on election

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Speaker 1: day right now where both sides in a close race

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Speaker 1: are convinced that they're going to win, and then there

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Speaker 1: will be moments that they are convinced that they're going

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Speaker 1: to lose. There's a campaign that I think is most

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Speaker 1: famous in the modern era for waking up on election

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Speaker 1: Day and truly believing that they were going to win,

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Speaker 1: and that's the Mitt Romney campaign. Mitt Romney's campaign believed

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Speaker 1: they had it won. And the reason they believed they

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Speaker 1: had it won was on an assumption of who was

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Speaker 1: going to vote, and that assumption made complete and perfect

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Speaker 1: sense to me the first time that I heard it,

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Speaker 1: and it was that there would be less black people

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Speaker 1: that voted in Barack Obama's second election then did his

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Speaker 1: first election when he became the first black president. And

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Speaker 1: so when you're sitting at the table and everyone starts

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Speaker 1: laying out their case about what's going to happen and

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Speaker 1: who's going to vote, this makes perfect sense when you

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Speaker 1: hear it. But over the course of the election, there

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Speaker 1: were indications in the polling and in the electorate that,

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Speaker 1: in fact, indeed, improbably there were in fact going to

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Speaker 1: be more Black people that voted for Barack Obama for

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Speaker 1: the reelection. But the Romney campaign just refused to believe it.

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Speaker 1: And so what they did is they decreased the number

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Speaker 1: of black people in their model until they believed they

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Speaker 1: had arrived at the appropriate level of black vote. But

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Speaker 1: this was a delusion at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: and so when the results come in, Mitt Romney loses

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Speaker 1: the election. So we're in the part of the campaign

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Speaker 1: where certainly the campaigns aren't paying anyone to delude them internally,

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Speaker 1: like a lot of the public, polls are intended to

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Speaker 1: create an atmosphere where, hey, my team's winning, I have

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Speaker 1: a little more energy, or your teams losing you deflate

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So where does the race stand? How

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Speaker 1: do you see it? And even since the last round

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Speaker 1: ound of the Cook pulling, which both of you obviously

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Speaker 1: recognizes a snapshot in time, seems to me that Harris's

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Speaker 1: position is deteriorated some, that she's a treading Trump is

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Speaker 1: becoming more aggressive. We'll talk about the House races, we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about the Senate races, but Patrick, let me turn

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Speaker 1: it over to you to start to just talk about

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Speaker 1: where is everything three weeks out?

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Speaker 2: Yes, So, one thing that I think has been really

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Speaker 2: interesting this cycle and is maybe different from previous cycles,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen this consistently in the polling we've done

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Speaker 2: for Cook is a turnout dynamic, and it gets at

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Speaker 2: some of what you're describing. You know, Traditionally Democrats tend

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Speaker 2: to think of ourselves doing better in presidential election years

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Speaker 2: because more folks vote in them, and there's a set

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Speaker 2: of voters who maybe aren't going to vote if it's

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Speaker 2: just a governor's race or a Senate race or a

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Speaker 2: house race in their area or in their state, but

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Speaker 2: do turn out to vote for president no matter what

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Speaker 2: and those less engaged voters traditionally have trended towards Democrats.

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Speaker 2: That has started to shift during the Trump years, and

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Speaker 2: I think we're seeing it, or since Trump first ran

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Speaker 2: for president in twenty sixteen, and I think we're seeing

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Speaker 2: that a little bit more clearly this cycle maybe than

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Speaker 2: in past years. So in our last poll for a Cook,

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Speaker 2: which I agree with you, I think much of the

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Speaker 2: public polling has suggested that since then, things have maybe

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Speaker 2: trended away from Harris a little bit, you know, overall

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Speaker 2: across the seven battleground states and the two way horse race.

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Speaker 2: So just asking voters to decide between Harris and Trump,

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Speaker 2: you know, even if they might be thinking about third

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Speaker 2: party voting. At this moment, Harris was ahead by two

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Speaker 2: points forty nine forty seven among everyone we surveyed. But

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Speaker 2: because of what you were describing, you know, certainly the

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Speaker 2: Romney campaign experiencing and other campaigns experiencing, you know, we

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Speaker 2: did not want to be too tight with our screen

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Speaker 2: of who got to take our survey because we recognize

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Speaker 2: that there are many Americans right now who are still

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Speaker 2: deciding if they're going to vote and whether or not

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Speaker 2: they turn out. Could ultimately shape this election. So what

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Speaker 2: we've seen this year is that higher engagement voters, voters

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Speaker 2: who have voted in every election, each of the sorry,

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Speaker 2: each of the last four presidential elections for which they've

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Speaker 2: been eligible to vote. Those voters look much more pro

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Speaker 2: Harris than the electorate at larger, they should say, a

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Speaker 2: little more pro Harris than the electorate at large. Harris

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Speaker 2: is winning fifty one percent of them to Trump's forty

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Speaker 2: six percent.

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Speaker 1: Let me just stop you right there to slowly stand

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Speaker 1: for the audience. So this means if you voted in

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Speaker 1: the twenty election, the sixteen election, the twelve election, and

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Speaker 1: the Obama election, meaning you voted in all of those elections,

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Speaker 1: four out of the last four heading into this one,

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Speaker 1: Harris has a pretty substantial lead outside of the margin

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Speaker 1: of era with those voters.

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Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, with folks who consistently turn out to vote

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Speaker 2: in federal elections and have voted in at least the

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Speaker 2: last four federal elections. Or I said presidential and I

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Speaker 2: meant to say federal, so I would include the mid terms.

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Speaker 2: Harris has the lead. Trump, however, has the lead with

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Speaker 2: more sporadic voters. Now, these are folks who do vote.

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Speaker 2: They're registered voters. They've shown up at some point in

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Speaker 2: the last four federal elections to cast a ballot, but

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Speaker 2: maybe they don't always turn out. Trump is winning those

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Speaker 2: voters by five points. Currently, he's winning forty nine percent

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Speaker 2: of them in forty four percent are voting for Harris.

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Speaker 2: And this is really just a long way of saying

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Speaker 2: that things really can shift in these final couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks depending on how those less engaged folks ultimately decide

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Speaker 2: to vote, and if they decide to vote at all.

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Speaker 2: We're fairly confident that folks who consistently vote in federal

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Speaker 2: elections are going to turn out this time, and if

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Speaker 2: those are the only voters who turn out, that's probably

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Speaker 2: to Harris's back pit. But if some folks who maybe

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Speaker 2: are a little bit less engaged, they pay less attention

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Speaker 2: to the news, they're less likely to turn out to vote.

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Speaker 2: If those folks show up, that looks like it's going

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Speaker 2: to be better for Trump. And that dynamic is really

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Speaker 2: a fundamental shift from how things have looked historically in

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Speaker 2: presidential elections, when Democrats have been more excited about turning

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Speaker 2: out less engaged voters on the assumption that they were

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Speaker 2: going to vote for us, And it seems in some

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Speaker 2: ways that was the calculation that the Romney campaign was

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Speaker 2: making in twenty twelve. They believe that there was a

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Speaker 2: set of voters who were really enthusiastic in two thousand

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Speaker 2: and eight, in particular a set of black voters who

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Speaker 2: were particularly inspired to turn out to vote. But maybe

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Speaker 2: we're not going to be quite as inspired four years later.

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Speaker 2: That turned out to be an incorrect assumption on their

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Speaker 2: part and accost them the election.

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Speaker 3: This year.

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Speaker 2: Democrats need to be very mindful of how things could

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Speaker 2: shift depending on if less engaged voters turn out. It

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Speaker 2: may not be to our benefit this time. And that's

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Speaker 2: a change and something that Democratic strategists need to be

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Speaker 2: prepared for.

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Speaker 1: And it used to Greg. When you look at the

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Speaker 1: electorate right now, you've been in the room like Patrick,

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Speaker 1: what campaign would you rather be on right now? If

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Speaker 1: all you care about is winning?

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Speaker 4: I think that Trump has better cards to play for

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Speaker 4: a couple of reasons. One is I think the you know,

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Speaker 4: kind of global political environment is in his favor in

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Speaker 4: terms of what's happening in Israel, what's happening in Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: those types of things, the border continues to be a problem.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Michigan Economic Index this last time, you know,

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Speaker 4: tick down again. So there's a challenge I think out

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Speaker 4: there for Harris and this that'set the environment that she's

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Speaker 4: running her campaign and is not as good. The second

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Speaker 4: piece that I would say is, I think you know,

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Speaker 4: Trump had a real.

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Speaker 1: I want to like stop you there for just a second,

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Speaker 1: right and then come into the second place, because I

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Speaker 1: want to come back and have a deeper conversation on this,

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Speaker 1: but I just want to go just put some pins

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Speaker 1: on the board, so to speak, with some of the

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Speaker 1: things you just said. You said the macro conditions, and

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Speaker 1: you threw out two national security positions. You threw out

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Speaker 1: Israel and you said Ukraine. On the question of Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: Trump's position is and I'm want to be generous towards it,

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Speaker 1: uh and describe it precisely, inaccurately, but he said that

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Speaker 1: he's gonna end the war before he's inaugurated. He's had

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Speaker 1: a series of secret conversations with Vladimir Putin, to whom

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Speaker 1: he's sending the COVID tests, to whom he has over

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Speaker 1: and over again called a genius, has admired, emulated, in

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Speaker 1: in all of the ways that that that we've seen

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Speaker 1: Trump play out. Why in the electorate, if someone cares

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Speaker 1: about Ukraine, who's an American voter? Why would an American

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Speaker 1: voter take Trump's words positions such as they are, particularly

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Speaker 1: if you're if you grew up in the Party of

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Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan and be like, we're for that, that that

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Speaker 1: issue becomes an advantage for him. In on the question

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Speaker 1: of Israel. Given just this morning, I'm looking at a

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Speaker 1: boat parade right where there are Trump banners with swastikas

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Speaker 1: flying below them. You know, it's on the news, it's there,

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Speaker 1: it's real, and you're a Jewish voter, and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is talking about the immigrant is eating the cats and dogs,

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Speaker 1: the language of dehumanization, and so you look at that

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Speaker 1: issue and you say, yeah, Trump, like take me in

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Speaker 1: that dynamic a little more deeply.

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Speaker 4: I think the tumult in the world is what I'm referencing,

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Speaker 4: not necessarily the specific positions. And I think one of

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Speaker 4: the things that is working to Trump's advantage right now

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Speaker 4: is people have heard all of his insane rantings for

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Speaker 4: some time and have been able to factor them into

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Speaker 4: their thought process and dismiss them And what Patrick and

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Speaker 4: I have been going back and forth with as we've

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Speaker 4: been talking about the results of the Cook Political Report

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Speaker 4: is there's two potential changes that could occur. The voters

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Speaker 4: could say, hey, we want to change from the last

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Speaker 4: four years of Biden, which of course advantages Trump. Or

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Speaker 4: they could say we're so tired of the insanity from

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Speaker 4: twenty sixteen to the present that we want to turn

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Speaker 4: the page on the Trump Biden years, and that advantages Harris.

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Speaker 4: And so, you know, one of the things that Harris,

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Speaker 4: you know, I thought was a major mistake that she

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Speaker 4: made last week is she couldn't figure out a way

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Speaker 4: that she could distance herself from Biden or where she disagreed. Right,

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Speaker 4: So she has these opportunities to change the nature of

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Speaker 4: the conversation around you know, are we having a change

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Speaker 4: election from the last eight years? Are having a change

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Speaker 4: elections from the last four years? And she's missing those opportunities.

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Speaker 1: Patrick, I've been with Greg in a couple of moments

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Speaker 1: on presidential campaigns. One of them is one of the

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Speaker 1: big four deadly quotes, right, John McCain saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: the fundamentals of the economy are strong, as Lehman Brothers

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Speaker 1: collapsing in two thousand and eight, right, A memorable moment,

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Speaker 1: A memorable moment in that in that campaign when you

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Speaker 1: look at Kamala Harris saying on the view not a thing.

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Speaker 1: When the president's approval level is what it is and

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Speaker 1: you have a right track number of twenty eight percent,

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Speaker 1: why is it not a thing going to end up

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Speaker 1: on the list of what I call the killer asteroid

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Speaker 1: quotes of I voted for it before I voted against it,

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Speaker 1: the forty seven percent quote by Romney, the one I

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Speaker 1: just mentioned by McCain that specifically or at odds with

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Speaker 1: the electricity of the electorate in a vital moment, when

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Speaker 1: Greg talks about the election being about change and it

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Speaker 1: being about change from both the Trump and the Biden years,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be ask you to react to something specifically.

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Speaker 1: I think it's broader than that, Right. I think the

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Speaker 1: change is about the Bush ears. I think it's less

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Speaker 1: so about the Obama years. Right. I think you can

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Speaker 1: you can sculpt out the eight years of I think

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Speaker 1: the country would take him back in a substantial number.

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Speaker 1: But the Bush years, the war in Iraq, the warriors, Biden, Trump,

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Speaker 1: the ten years of Trump, I think that's what she

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Speaker 1: has to capture in order to do it. But I'm

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Speaker 1: curious your reaction all that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think there's a lot of truth

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Speaker 2: to that. I certainly don't envy Harris's position where she's

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Speaker 2: a member of this administration. She obviously, you know, for

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Speaker 2: beyond campaign reasons, but as a leader in the United

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Speaker 2: States government, does not want to be undermining confidence in.

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Speaker 3: The president for whom she serves.

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Speaker 2: And yet we all know that the excitement around Harris

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Speaker 2: was the fact that she represented change from Biden as

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Speaker 2: much as Trump. She literally replaced Biden, and at that

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Speaker 2: moment people became excited about voting for her. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's a tricky position to be in. I do

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Speaker 2: think that, you know, I think in general essentially not

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Speaker 2: my position as someone who was part of doing communication

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Speaker 2: strategy for the Obama White House, part of his pulling

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Speaker 2: his White House pulling team, I think that that was

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Speaker 2: a moment and since Obama where the Democratic Party did

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Speaker 2: start to become a little bit more associated with elites.

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Speaker 2: And I do think that that is one piece where

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Speaker 2: undecided voters and voters who've been trending away from the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party. There was some concern about that coming out

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Speaker 2: of the Obama year. So I do think that there

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Speaker 2: is a bigger desire for a more fundamental change in

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Speaker 2: how our politics and elections work. And I think that

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Speaker 2: that has been Trump's appeal in spite of what everyone

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Speaker 2: knows about him and in spite of their concern that

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Speaker 2: this might not be someone who has the temperament to

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Speaker 2: lead the country. But beyond that, I agree, I think

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Speaker 2: that there is a significant change in terms of a

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Speaker 2: desire for America's involvement in other countries as opposed to

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Speaker 2: America really focusing on itself and repairing problems that we

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Speaker 2: have at home. And again, I think Trump has done

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Speaker 2: a very good job at conveying that. That has been

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Speaker 2: again part of his appeal to working class voters, including

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Speaker 2: working class voters of color that we have seen trend

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Speaker 2: away from Democrats.

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Speaker 3: I think Democrats have to get better at.

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Speaker 2: Reaching those voters and demonstrating that we're really committed to,

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Speaker 2: you know, a vision of the country that's fairer to

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Speaker 2: them and is rooted in the concerns that they have

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Speaker 2: in their daily lives.

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Speaker 4: And Steve, I don't want to, you know, dismiss like

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Speaker 4: this the ease of you know, kind of change from

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Speaker 4: Biden and Trump for Harris, because I know you and

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Speaker 4: I had many conversations about the need for McCain to

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Speaker 4: distance himself from George W. Bush, and every time the

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Speaker 4: White House got an inkling that that's what we're going

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Speaker 4: to do, the amountment tents and institutional pressure coming back

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Speaker 4: at us that we could never do that to the

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Speaker 4: president kind of overwhelms you. And even if it's the

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Speaker 4: right strategic things to do, it's very difficult.

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Speaker 1: So I want to come back to that too, because

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Speaker 1: I think it's elemental to towards what she asked to

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Speaker 1: do to be able to win, and if she doesn't

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Speaker 1: meet the test, she's not going to win. But come back, Greg,

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Speaker 1: I cut you off on your first element, and I

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Speaker 1: want you to talk about the second element before we

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Speaker 1: got into the conversation about you know, why it is

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Speaker 1: that if people don't like the chaos, why they would

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Speaker 1: pick a chaos agent in my view, but go.

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Speaker 4: Ahead, Well, I think it kind of factors more into

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Speaker 4: the perception that Trump is stronger than she is as

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Speaker 4: a leader, and so I think that is what really matters.

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Speaker 4: But I think that those you know, the the second

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Speaker 4: tier of how you can define change. What works for

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Speaker 4: Trump is that the change on the on the on

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Speaker 4: the immigration and economic side of the equation. So if

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Speaker 4: he is successful of communicating that to undecided abouters, he's

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Speaker 4: going to win. Her change is exactly what you just

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Speaker 4: talked about, which is can we get past the insanity

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Speaker 4: of Donald Trump?

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Speaker 3: And what I thought was.

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Speaker 4: The biggest strategic error for her in this whole campaign,

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Speaker 4: and it's not dissimilar, you know, going back to Romney

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Speaker 4: and twelve, she wins the debate, right, and she wins

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Speaker 4: the debate by going after Trump on his insanity, and

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Speaker 4: instead of you know, kind of messaging on that track

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Speaker 4: from then on, she goes and tries to talk about

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Speaker 4: how great she is on the economy, which of course

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Speaker 4: goes right back and plays into Donald Trump's hand. And

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Speaker 4: so that was a massive strategic error for them. They

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Speaker 4: should have been ready coming out out of the debate

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Speaker 4: to run that same message track. And that's the same

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Speaker 4: thing that happened at Romney. Rowney wins the last debate

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Speaker 4: against Trump, I mean against Obama, and he's doing really well,

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Speaker 4: but his campaign just goes into some inane messaging that

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Speaker 4: had no ability to kind of capture the lightning in

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Speaker 4: the bottom.

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Speaker 1: Patrick, what is your view on that? And looking back

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Speaker 1: now from October fourteenth, the Wall's debate is October first,

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Speaker 1: I can lay out a chart I think that's contiguously

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Speaker 1: and continuously up into the right from the moment that

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Speaker 1: she gets into the race really through the Wall's debate.

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Speaker 1: That and it's always inevitable, right, There's always going to

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Speaker 1: be a turn of possession in a presidential campaign. It's

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Speaker 1: inevitable that there will be tough days. But if you

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Speaker 1: were to look at the Harris campaign in its totality,

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Speaker 1: the way that I would view it is that it

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Speaker 1: really had a continuity until the Walls debate, and the

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Speaker 1: momentum of the campaign is really really interrupted, you know

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Speaker 1: at at the back end of that debate. Do you

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Speaker 1: do you think that's a fair point.

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Speaker 2: I think that that Yes, I think that that is

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Speaker 2: a fair point, and the timing is right. I think

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Speaker 2: the other thing that it's maybe less something that has

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Speaker 2: happened and more something that fewer dramatic Trump blunders. You know,

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Speaker 2: certainly it's not to say he hasn't said anything that

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Speaker 2: you know, the three of us might consider to be

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Speaker 2: off the rails or but we haven't had a moment

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Speaker 2: like eating the pets. We haven't had a moment where

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Speaker 2: Trump just made clear in a way that was widely

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Speaker 2: consumed organically by people that this guy just is too

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Speaker 2: out of control. He's focused on Hannibal Lecter, He's focused

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Speaker 2: on all these other things. I think her ability to

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Speaker 2: I think the message about Trump being too erratic to

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Speaker 2: lead has switched to being something that is a case

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Speaker 2: Democrats have had to make explicitly more so than something

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Speaker 2: that people are seeing in TV news and in their

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Speaker 2: media consumption naturally and in the way that had been happening,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think for months prior, and that has

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Speaker 2: made things harder for us. I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: the levers Democrats have been pulling, it can feel like

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Speaker 2: we've really hammered that point home and there's not much

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Speaker 2: left to say. So I think Project twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: is another example of this. It's we just haven't been

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Speaker 2: able to keep up the momentum in the same way

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Speaker 2: on those fronts. I don't think that that means we

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Speaker 2: can't win it back. And I agree with Greg that

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Speaker 2: what she needs to do going forward and for the

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Speaker 2: rest of the campaign is really remind folks of the

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Speaker 2: type of leader Trump is, that he's too out of control,

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Speaker 2: that he's too extreme, and connect that to an impact

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Speaker 2: on people's daily lives and remind people that, you know,

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Speaker 2: when he was president, they didn't feel great.

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Speaker 3: You know. One of the things that.

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Speaker 2: We've seen really consistently and the cook polling, is that

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Speaker 2: while Trump has had an advantage on issues like foreign

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Speaker 2: policy and war, on issues like crime and violence, and

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Speaker 2: on immigration, Harris has consistently held the lead on making

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Speaker 2: you feel safer. Now it's a very narrow lead, to

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Speaker 2: be clear, it's not a big one whatsoever, but she

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Speaker 2: has that lead in spite of the fact that she's

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Speaker 2: behind on most policy fronts. That people connect to safety,

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Speaker 2: and the reason for that, I think is very clear,

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Speaker 2: which is that folks remember that they didn't feel safe

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Speaker 2: when Trump was president because you were always aware that

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Speaker 2: at any point someone might set him off. He might

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Speaker 2: go off the rails, maybe he's going to tweet something

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Speaker 2: and start a nuclear war. So even if people do

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Speaker 2: associate him with strength and the theoretical ability to you know,

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Speaker 2: stop tumulton in the world, they they remember this guy's

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Speaker 2: a little too crazy. This guy's a little too dangerous,

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Speaker 2: and that needs to be the focus of her campaign.

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Speaker 4: So in the final weeks, So Steve, let me pick

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Speaker 4: up on something Patrick's talking about, because again in the

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Speaker 4: Cook political report stuff that we did, one of the

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Speaker 4: best hits that she could use against him is this

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Speaker 4: idea that he is going to have a day of

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Speaker 4: reckoning for all this political enemies, right and there's been

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Speaker 4: a lot of that here in the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 4: And you know James Carvell, who of course has you know,

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Speaker 4: the best political antenna I out there. He comes out

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Speaker 4: and says, I could be going to jail, that could

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Speaker 4: be coming for me, you know, all those.

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Speaker 1: Types of things.

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Speaker 4: And I think that, you know, if her campaign was fleet,

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Speaker 4: but they would be all over this right now because

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Speaker 4: of all the kind of Nazi rally type you know,

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Speaker 4: discussion there's been around what Trump is saying, doing, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: But they don't seem to be you know that you

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Speaker 4: know adept and you know, just as a political practitioner,

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Speaker 4: I think the most impressive part about the Trump campaign

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Speaker 4: this this cycle is when when she became the nominee,

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Speaker 4: he melted down, He went out of control, he said

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Speaker 4: things that were you know, insane. He brought brings Corey

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Speaker 4: Lewandowski into the campaign, and you know, Chris Las Savidah

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Speaker 4: and miss Wils. You know, they sit there and they say, Okay,

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Speaker 4: we're going to control what we can control in the campaign.

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Speaker 4: And they get the message going on her on the

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Speaker 4: economy and being too liberal, same thing on immigration, and

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Speaker 4: they start that slow grind, the kind of Russian army

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Speaker 4: grind on the center of the electorate to kind of

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Speaker 4: make the race move in his direction. So they understood

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Speaker 4: that their cannons out of control, and they boxed them

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Speaker 4: in and allowed, you know, and try to take him

437
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 4: out of the play and really push the message from

438
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 4: a from a TV advertising perspective.

439
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: I'm struck, Patrick by something that you said that led

440
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: into what Greg just talked about. So a complete agreement, right,

441
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: the Hannibal electer, the Haitians are eating pets. There are

442
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: these wild statements that are just impossible to look away from,

443
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: just full on freak show level of rhetoric. You can

444
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: evaluate it in a lot of different ways. I suppose,

445
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: you know, first time anyone ever heard him say it,

446
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: you know, the reaction I supposed that led the Nations,

447
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: was Kamala Harris's on the debate stage. You laughed, but

448
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: then you appreciate how exquisitely vicious and racist it is.

449
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: And you know, the reality is that it could have

450
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: come out of the mouth of a gobels or a striker.

451
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: And so here we are three weeks before our presidential

452
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: election in the United States of America and the Republican

453
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: nominee is talking about the enemy with it retribution, locking

454
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: up political opponents. He's being specific, he's being direct, he's

455
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:43,959
Speaker 1: talking about deploying the army to snuff out dissent. And

456
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: it just seems to me, in a two party system,

457
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: if you're the party opposed to this, which the Harris

458
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: Party is, and you look at on the day what

459
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: Trump talked about, So what do he say and how

460
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: would we rank it? And what's the High Court right

461
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: that he threw out today that we have to meet,

462
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: We have to deal with that, we have to say

463
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 1: something about It would seem to me that there would

464
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: be an urgent necessity on say the part of let's

465
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: say President Clinton, right, if he was running against someone

466
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,719
Speaker 1: who did this, a President Obama, if he was running

467
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: against someone who did this, a President Eisenhower or President Kennedy,

468
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: if they were running against someone who said those things,

469
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: there would be an urgency, a duty to warn, to

470
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: speak to the country with the utmost seriousness about what's

471
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: going on. And yet it seems when I open the page,

472
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: I see this nice looking picture of the vice presidential

473
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: ticket with spouses all dressed in blue, with Tim Walls

474
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: his foot up in the air, right, inexplicably right, like

475
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: a happy, joyful picture, campaigning on joy. When the Republican

476
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: nominee is campaigning on locking up political opponents to snuffing

477
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: out the scent seems incongruent to me. In the moment,

478
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: it seems to be having the effect of decreasing intensity

479
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side at the moment when the danger

480
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: is clearest, the rhetoric is the most obvious, And still

481
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: we see this kind of opaqueness with dealing with it

482
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: that I find that I find right now, if you're

483
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: looking at this through a polling prism, is very confusing

484
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: to me.

485
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: Well, look, I yes, I certainly think that Trump has

486
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 2: demonstrated that I mean, he continues to say unacceptable things.

487
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: And I think Harris's strongest points, or some of her

488
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: strongest points in this campaign have been when she has

489
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: been very clear, in including during the debate. I also

490
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 2: think this was the case during her DNC acceptance speech,

491
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: where she was very clear that this man says unacceptable

492
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 2: things and and this is not who we are. I

493
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: think that, you know, her strength in this campaign lies

494
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: in her ability to drive that contrast, and we certainly

495
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 2: do see that panning.

496
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 3: Out for her in our polling.

497
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, we do have her, We did have

498
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:58,479
Speaker 2: her leading slightly driving her lead. You know, despite Trump

499
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: being more trusted on a number of issues that are

500
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: certainly important, like immigration and the economy, overall, voters were

501
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 2: more likely to trust Harris to share their values. Voters

502
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: were more likely to trust Harris to make them feel

503
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: proud to be Americans. They were more likely to trust

504
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: her and proud of to be Americans and proud of

505
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: their country. They were more likely to see her as

506
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 2: someone who cares about people like them and and will

507
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 2: fight for for their family specifically. So I absolutely agree

508
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 2: that there have been some there there remain opportunities that

509
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: that Harris needs to seize to continue to drive that contrast.

510
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 2: I think her strength in this campaign so far has

511
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 2: come from her ability to do that very in very

512
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: compelling and effective ways and different moments in this campaign.

513
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: And I think the question that remains is can she

514
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 2: continue to hammer home that that contrast.

515
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: We want to ask you guys both a question, but

516
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: I wanted to I wanted to go with Patrick first.

517
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,719
Speaker 1: I want to role play here. I want to I

518
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: want to tell you exactly what i would say to

519
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: the vice president right now if I'm on the campaign

520
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: and we're in the room right where the six seven,

521
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: eight people who are going to decide the strategic direction

522
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: of the of the campaign, And I would and and

523
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: and and what I would say is, here's what the

524
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: polling says. This is what the polling says. The polling says.

525
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: For for whatever reason, tragically, the American people look at

526
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: him and her and evaluate him as stronger than her.

527
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: They evaluate her as weaker than him. And there is

528
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: no election that has ever been ever in the history

529
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 1: of America where the person perceived as the weaker candidate

530
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 1: beat the stronger Candidate's never happened. There's no example that

531
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: anyone can get. So you must be perceived as the

532
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: stronger candidate. And there's just a reality here here's the reality.

533
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: The reality is is Joe Biden is not FDR. He's

534
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: an unpopular president. In fact, he's almost as unpopular as

535
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: George W. Bush was in the two thousand and eight election,

536
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 1: and the country overwhelmingly thinks it's on the wrong track.

537
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: And the Democratic Party has been in an argument with

538
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: the American voter for much of the last two years,

539
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: telling them this is the choice. You get what you get,

540
00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: it's Biden or Trump, belligerently until the moment all of

541
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: it falls apart Harris gets in the race. There's a

542
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 1: lot of people who say, well, this is shocking how

543
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,439
Speaker 1: she came up to the right, up into the right

544
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: on the arc. But it's explained exactly by the polling,

545
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 1: because there was such intensity with people not wanting the choice,

546
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 1: and so when that choice went away, the enthusiasma bounds

547
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 1: to her. But what people want to know is what

548
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 1: she will do differently from Biden. The test at hand

549
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: for her is is she able in the interest of

550
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 1: the American public to perhaps hurt Joe Biden's ego by

551
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: telling the American people what the polling is demanding that

552
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:52,439
Speaker 1: she do separate herself. So I think that if you're

553
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: not strong enough to, over the last four years, be

554
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: able to come up with a specific example Afghanistan, the border,

555
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 1: spending in flow, whatever it may be. Nothing, there's not

556
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: a thing that you would do differently. Nothing is an

557
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 1: unacceptable answer because the American people think it's fear based.

558
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: Its fear based. You're afraid to say something obvious for

559
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 1: some hidden reason and unlessly until you cross that bridge.

560
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: You're gonna fall short on election day because you are

561
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: underperforming where Biden was and he won by forty four

562
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: thousand votes in three states, so you're on track to lose.

563
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: And you guys sitting there as the pollster would say,

564
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: what woll woa, whoa, whoa, whoa. He's full of shit.

565
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: We got to kick him out to he's right to

566
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: where in between?

567
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's somewhere in between. I think certainly,

568
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 2: as we've pointed out, her strength comes from being seen

569
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 2: as as an opportunity to turn the page not only

570
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 2: on Trump, but but on Trump and Biden and to

571
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 2: represent generational change. I think she has done a good

572
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 2: job at using language like representing generational change to drive

573
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 2: to implicitly say I'm a change from from Biden. Without

574
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: staking out a position directly undermining the administration of which

575
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 2: she is a member. Uh So, at the same time,

576
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: I think, uh one thing that that is clear so

577
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 2: far when I look at our polling and look at

578
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 2: other public bolsters, polling results on who's trusted on issues

579
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 2: versus who's trusted on different types of leadership qualities and

580
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: temperament to be president and ability to lead this country.

581
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 2: You know, Trump tends to have the upper hand on

582
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 2: most issues that are top tier issues for voters. There's

583
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 2: certainly exceptions to that, abortion being the most obvious one,

584
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 2: although in basically any every poll that's come out in

585
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 2: this election, abortion is not the number one issue for

586
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: voters and certainly for undecided voters. So I think that

587
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 2: there is some risk getting stuck in a conversation about

588
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 2: which policy she would have done differently and why, and

589
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 2: which approach she would have taken on which issue. I

590
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: do think though, she needs to be able to demonstrate

591
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: that she would understand Americans' concerns in a different way,

592
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 2: that she ultimately has a different vision for the future.

593
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 2: Maybe not a different vision for the past four years,

594
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 2: but ultimately does because she's younger, because she you know,

595
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: came up in a different era because she would be

596
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 2: a new type of leader. She has a different vision

597
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: for the future. I think she's going to be better

598
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 2: off if voters are focused on on what the difference

599
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 2: between her and Trump will be over the next four years,

600
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: rather than what the difference is between her and Biden

601
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 2: might have been over the past war.

602
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 4: So, Steve, I mean, I think the first thing I

603
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 4: would say in the room is speed kills. And you know,

604
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 4: I think that the campaign is trying to do the

605
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 4: generational piece right now with the health records, right. You know,

606
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 4: it's clear that Donald Trump is making less and less

607
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 4: sense on the stump as he's going through this process.

608
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 1: Do you think anyone cares about the health records?

609
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 4: I don't think it necessary about the health records per se,

610
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 4: But I think that the crowbar is the right one

611
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 4: to employ. But what I would also say to you

612
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 4: is you lay out a plan and then you're presented

613
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 4: with an opportunity, right, which is this whole idea that

614
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 4: we're going to round people up in the enemy within.

615
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 4: So what does the polling say. The pollie says two things.

616
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 4: Let's talk about two groups of voters versus undecided voters.

617
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 4: They are are overwhelmingly independent. They think that Biden's done

618
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 4: a terrible job on the economy. They're going to vote

619
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 4: with Trump if it's a referendum on the Biden economy.

620
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 4: At the same time, they think Trump is completely out

621
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 4: of control, and they're going to vote with Harris if

622
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 4: it's a referendum on his kind of capacity to be

623
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 4: a decent human being. Let's talk about a second group

624
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 4: of people, and I find this group the most fascinating,

625
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 4: and it's a small number, like you're saying, in a

626
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 4: close race, all these small numbers matter, and that's the

627
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 4: one and a half percent who right now are saying

628
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 4: they're going to vote for a third party candidate, and

629
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 4: they are in fact economic voters who are voting for the.

630
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 1: Third party candidate.

631
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 4: And that's disproportionately coming out of Trump's high I think

632
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 4: fifty seven percent of the folks who are voting for

633
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 4: a third party candidate vote for Trump in twenty twenty.

634
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:00,479
Speaker 4: And it's a working class, blue collar male and male

635
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 4: is really important because of the gender gap that's growing.

636
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 4: And they agree with Trump on immigration, on the economy,

637
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 4: but they've made a decision that they cannot cannot support

638
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 4: him because of how out of control he is, and

639
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 4: so I would say that to the campaign team, Hey,

640
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 4: we have these two groups that are both behaving this

641
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 4: the way we need them to behave, and we have

642
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 4: this opportunity about the enemy from within. We need that

643
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 4: right now. But of course she's just had ten days

644
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 4: of really bad press because they also thought that she

645
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 4: needed to do a lot of interviews and that backfired

646
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 4: on So they're going to sit there and it's like,

647
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 4: we can't put her back out right now, and they

648
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 4: need to because they got to change the race.

649
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 1: Okay, Patrick, do you have something to say to that?

650
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 1: And then I want to talk about those interviews for

651
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 1: a second, since Greg brought them up.

652
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 2: No, I completely agree with Greg. She needs to get

653
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 2: the focus back on Trump's leadership style, and that again

654
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 2: is one reason why I don't think she wants to

655
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: get stuck debating where she's different from from Biden. She

656
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 2: wants to keep this squarely focused on where she's different

657
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 2: from Trump, while acknowledging that she would represent change from

658
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 2: Biden and that she would have a different approach over

659
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 2: the next four years. But this needs to be about

660
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 2: this man is too out of control to deliver on

661
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: any of the things that he might be promising to do.

662
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 2: You know, just in terms of the polling on that front.

663
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: You know, one thing that I thought was, you know,

664
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 2: they've fielded at different times, but I was looking at

665
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal's most recent polling, which also asked,

666
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 2: you know, questions around issues and which and candidate preferences

667
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 2: on different issue fronts. They found much wider margins in

668
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 2: favor of Trump on some of the issues, particularly the economy,

669
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 2: than we did in our poll. But I think one

670
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 2: thing that stood out as a key difference is our

671
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: poll asked who you trusted on these issues? The Wall

672
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 2: Street Journal poll asked who did you think had a

673
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 2: better ability on either of these fronts. And I think

674
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 2: that that's a subtle but important distinction that really gets

675
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: at one of the main dynamics of this race. Folks

676
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:14,399
Speaker 2: like a lot of the things Trump is promising to do.

677
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 2: They even like much of his policy platform, even though

678
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: I find it alarming and horrible. There's a lot there

679
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 2: that voters believe that they like, but they're not actually

680
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: sure they can trust him to deliver on any of

681
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 2: those fronts. And the reason for that is because they

682
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 2: know he gets distracted with his strange fixations, he goes

683
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 2: off on people he perceives to be enemies. He's too

684
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 2: erratic and out of control. And so again, I think

685
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 2: that the way that she can undermine some of Trump's

686
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 2: strength on economic issues, and particularly you know, with some

687
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 2: of those you know, blue collar men that we're talking about,

688
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 2: is by reminding people more and more that his erraticism,

689
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: his craziness is going to revent him from making a

690
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 2: positive difference in your life. And I think that is

691
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,439
Speaker 2: more the angle to lead into than you know, he's

692
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: too old or too unhealthy to be able to do this.

693
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: Rag Well.

694
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 4: It's funny because I remember in two thousand and eight

695
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 4: and being alarmed because all of a sudden, there's ads

696
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:20,919
Speaker 4: running in North Carolina where they had you know, Bull

697
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 4: Connor using the fire hose on you know, black protesters

698
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 4: in Alabama. It's like, Wow, that's that's that's really that's

699
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 4: that's really too far. But I think that Trump's behavior

700
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 4: allows for really stark imagery right now that could advantage

701
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 4: Harris if she was willing to do it, and if

702
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 4: the campaign had the capacity to pivot quickly.

703
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any question that that's what she

704
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: needs to do, and a failure to do it will

705
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: cost her the election. That we've arrived at a momentous

706
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: hour where the things that Donald Trump is saying, or

707
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 1: the things that he is saying, and the person in

708
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 1: our society of three hundred and forty million people who

709
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: is tasked with rebutting it is Kamala Harris. Destiny has

710
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: brought her to that place, and you know, talking about

711
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: the politics of joy and some of the other issues

712
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: is not getting it done, and so like and I guess,

713
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: like my position was would be in this moment that

714
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: regardless of what the polling may suggest from a messaging framework,

715
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: the monumental issues raised by Trump's rhetoric deserve a very

716
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: fierce response, meaning that if Trump does or attempts to

717
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: do the things he's saying that he's going to do

718
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: as president, let it be with a clear mandate and

719
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 1: an absolute lack of confusion about what those things are.

720
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 1: That an argument has to be made. And I just

721
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 1: I think about this that the conversation, I think it's

722
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,959
Speaker 1: because of the structure of the American media that does

723
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 1: not permit there's no space for his conversation, but I

724
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: think it's the most important one in the future of

725
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 1: American politics, which is how how? And I'm gonna I'm

726
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 1: gonna go to you Greg first with it. How can

727
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: it be that that that that that Donald Trump has

728
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: been able to coalesce a political movement, that the Democratic

729
00:47:50,680 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: Party is unable to offer a majoritarian argument that reput

730
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 1: jutiates it as utterly on America? What's the problem? Meaning

731
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: in a two team league, how are they losing to

732
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: this team, the team of Marjorie Taylor Green the It's

733
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 1: the singular question, right that that is asked most often

734
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: amongst the audience that will watch this program. How can

735
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: it be that Trump is winning?

736
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:36,439
Speaker 4: I think that the big issue here is the Democrats

737
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 4: have been defining a image of America, let's call it,

738
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 4: a woke image of America that many Republicans right of

739
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 4: center voters find defensive.

740
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: And so if you have.

741
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 4: The enemy of my enemy of my enemy is my

742
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: friend approach. There's a lot of people that I talk

743
00:48:56,600 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 4: to Anecdotley like I can't stand Donald Trump, but boy,

744
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 4: is he going to be better than her? And I

745
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 4: think there's a lot of Republicans right of center voters

746
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 4: who are of that mindset, which is the democratic insanity

747
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 4: around a lot of these issues.

748
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 1: Is just too much.

749
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 4: I actually, you know, I would never have thought about

750
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:26,359
Speaker 4: using you know, transvestite advertising rights as a political practitioner.

751
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 4: But the advertising they're doing right now about paying for

752
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 4: you know, sex change operations for prisoners pretty effective.

753
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 2: Patrick, Well, you know one, I would like to reiterate

754
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: that there are a number of polls, including hours, that

755
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 2: do show Harris leading. So you know, I don't want

756
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 2: to act like we've lost this race to I take

757
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 2: your broader point.

758
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: Let me just say, let me just say I'm the

759
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 1: leading question. I just want to be Can you explain

760
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,879
Speaker 1: this to me? I know a lot of people out

761
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 1: there to hear it, process it. Explain it to me,

762
00:49:56,719 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: like I'm like, I'm a first grader. If Harris is

763
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 1: two up and Biden was five up going into election day,

764
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: and he won by a fraction of a percentage, which

765
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: seemed to be the trend line over all of these

766
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 1: Trump elections, right, is that Trump overperforms on election day? Right,

767
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 1: the race is tighter than the polling than the polling suggested.

768
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: Does the current tightness of the race suggest on that

769
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: trend line that she's really down if you extrapolated out

770
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: on that line down two points three points in all

771
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: these states or is that a crazy way? Is that

772
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 1: a crazy way to look at it? I would look

773
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: at it that way right sitting in the captain chair

774
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: at the campaign, I would be like, we have to

775
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 1: have this much elevation on the dial of our airplane

776
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: to clear the mountain in the top gun, you know

777
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: scenario that I'm using here.

778
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I don't think it's crazy. I think it's

779
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 2: certainly one possibility, but I don't think it's the only possibility.

780
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, the campaign pollsters, like folks

781
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 2: who are doing this professionally at this point, are going

782
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: to be evaluating multiple potential scenarios and what they might

783
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 2: each mean, and trying to figure out what decisions work

784
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 2: across those scenarios versus what strategic decisions need to be

785
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 2: made only in one versus the other, and then they

786
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 2: get tricky. So it's certainly the case that in twenty

787
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:44,760
Speaker 2: sixteen and in twenty twenty, Donald Trump outperformed where polls

788
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 2: had him. So if that continued to be the case

789
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 2: this election, You're absolutely right, we would expect that the

790
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 2: reality is that Harris is doing worse than Poles are

791
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 2: suggesting that she's doing. But there are a couple of

792
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 2: reasons to question what that that's necessarily.

793
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 3: The case this cycle one.

794
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:08,799
Speaker 2: We've now had two presidential elections in which Trump was

795
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 2: the Republican standard bearer and had to navigate these dynamics,

796
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 2: and many pollsters have devoted significant resources, time, thought, and

797
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 2: energy to ensuring samples are less biased against Trump. So

798
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 2: you know, twenty twenty four may not have the same

799
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: problems as twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, in part because

800
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 2: efforts were made to ensure that it wouldn't. The second

801
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,919
Speaker 2: thing that's happened since twenty twenty.

802
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 3: Was the overturning of Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs decision.

803
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: And so while it was the case in twenty sixteen

804
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 2: and twenty twenty that polls underestimated support for Republicans, one

805
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: thing that we saw in twenty twenty two, now this

806
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 2: was in the immediate aftermath of that Dobbs decision, with

807
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,839
Speaker 2: the polls underestimated how a democratic turnout and Democratic performance,

808
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,760
Speaker 2: and particular, there was a set of younger voters, younger

809
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 2: women in particular, who maybe weren't participating in polling and

810
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 2: turned out to support Democrats and pro choice ballot initiatives.

811
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 2: Now it's unclear, as I've mentioned already, abortion is not

812
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: the number one issue in this race according to most polls.

813
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 2: It's not clear that that trend is going to continue.

814
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: But I would say that from a polling perspective, things

815
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 2: are a little bit murkier than Trump has always outperformed

816
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 2: the polls when he's run for president, so he must

817
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 2: be doing that again. Now there are reasons to believe

818
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 2: that there are a set of left leaning voters that

819
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 2: may be underrepresented in these polls today. You know, we

820
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 2: certainly saw in the immediate aftermath of Harris getting into

821
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:49,240
Speaker 2: the race, you know, really intense enthusiasm from new voters.

822
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,840
Speaker 2: There were this huge spike in voter registration, there was

823
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: a huge spike in brand new, first time political donors

824
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:01,359
Speaker 2: giving to the Harris campaign. So, in some ways, we

825
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 2: don't know. That's not the most satisfying answer, you know,

826
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 2: I think you want, you know, people like to have certainty,

827
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:10,479
Speaker 2: and we'd like to believe that we know which way,

828
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: uh things are going to go. But it is hard

829
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 2: at this point to state with any certainty whether polls

830
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 2: are definitively undercounting Trump's performance, are they undercounting democratic performance,

831
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 2: or or are they spot on with with where we

832
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 2: would expect today.

833
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 1: I want to ask one more question of you two,

834
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 1: and then I just want to do a quick lightning round, right,

835
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 1: And in terms of like how to close out the

836
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:38,720
Speaker 1: campaign last three weeks, the Wall's pick, was it a mistake?

837
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 1: Greg Yes moved her left? Patrick, I tend to disagree.

838
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: I think he has an ability to to come across

839
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:55,320
Speaker 2: in a way that's genuine to working people, to regular people,

840
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: and I think.

841
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 3: Has been an asset to the campaign for that reason.

842
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 1: When I watched him, Walls right like the that debate

843
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 1: and I was favorably disposed to Tim Wallas. I really

844
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 1: think one of the most incredible palein esque answers I've

845
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 1: ever seen was his answer on whether he was in

846
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 1: China or not right, And when he got to the

847
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:15,959
Speaker 1: end of it, I was just like, well, the guy's

848
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 1: a bullshitter, right. That's I mean, Walls isn't a liar,

849
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 1: It's not a pathological liar like Trump, but he's a bullshitter, right.

850
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 1: He's an amiable bullshitter, And I guess the question on

851
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: the table is would she have been better off with

852
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 1: Josh Shapira for sure?

853
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 2: Well, so I think that it might have been a

854
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 2: mistake if voters were going to decide how they were

855
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:38,600
Speaker 2: going to vote in this election based off of the

856
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:42,320
Speaker 2: VP debate, which obviously you know was not a strong

857
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 2: point for Walls. I just don't think that that is

858
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 2: ultimately how this race is getting designed.

859
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 1: But do you agree we talked about this earlier. It

860
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:56,359
Speaker 1: certainly has slowed her political momentum coming into too October. Right,

861
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 1: if you if you were just to walk back the

862
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: rope right to the moment when she had momentum and

863
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 1: lost it, right, the cause and effect of that is

864
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,799
Speaker 1: the debate, right. So the so the effect of it

865
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 1: is tactical, right, you know, it costs you possession of

866
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 1: the of the ball, which you have to get back,

867
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 1: and you're always going to lose it, right, I mean,

868
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: there's always going to be a bad day, right where

869
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 1: you say something, something happens, and and that's just the

870
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 1: that's just the nature of these of these things. But

871
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 1: but I but I do think that depending on how

872
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 1: it goes, right, that will be a that will be

873
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 1: a crucial choice. I do think that the market demands

874
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 1: that she make a statement of the obvious. The American

875
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:42,879
Speaker 1: people are never wrong in a sense, and they don't

876
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:45,800
Speaker 1: think the economy is great, and the Party has taken

877
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:47,840
Speaker 1: a position that they're going to have an argument with

878
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 1: on that. In fact, the economy is great because it's

879
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 1: the Biden economy, which was branded for some inexplicable reason,

880
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 1: which we'll talk a lot more about if this doesn't

881
00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: go the right way Bidenomics. But three weeks to go,

882
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 1: she is an agent of change, or wants to be.

883
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 1: But the best surrogates in the Democratic Party are figures

884
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: of the past. So it's an imperfect world. Right, You're

885
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 1: either going to have figures of the past, who are

886
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 1: your best communicators out there? Or right, you're just gonna

887
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 1: say we don't want to have anybody who represents the

888
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 1: past because of the contradiction. I would say bullshit to that.

889
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 1: I want the best communicators out there, right, So for me, right,

890
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 1: it's released the big dog. Right, you need Bill Clinton

891
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 1: out there campaigning across these states talking to white working

892
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: class men for the next three weeks because he is

893
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 1: the best communicator politically that the Democratic Party is produced

894
00:57:56,120 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: with that portion of the electorate in my lifetime. Need

895
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 1: President Obama out there NonStop, NonStop. He needs to be everywhere.

896
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 1: You need to have Michelle Obama out there, not in

897
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 1: the same forums, in the same settings, as as as

898
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 1: as President Clinton, President Obama, but driving to turnout with

899
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 1: women with women voters. I think President Obama needs to

900
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: pick up the phone and call Lebron James and he

901
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 1: needs to call uh some of the most notable, highest profile,

902
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: most respected African American athletes who have big brands with

903
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 1: young people in this country and make clear that there's

904
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 1: no bystanders. You know, Lebron Dreames is someone who's been

905
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 1: outspoken on a number of different issues. It's incongruent that

906
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 1: he wouldn't speak out now. And the last question, I

907
00:58:57,880 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 1: want to ask you guys if you can think of

908
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 1: anyone else to name or if you disagree on those

909
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 1: and then and then I want to ask about a

910
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:09,479
Speaker 1: specific endorsement and ask you to raid some imporis before

911
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 1: I say goodbye. But but what do you think about

912
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:15,360
Speaker 1: that the former president? Who am I missing from that list?

913
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 1: Or do not have them out at all?

914
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 4: I think strategically speaking, the group that you want to

915
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:24,439
Speaker 4: have out there is Liz Chaney. You want to have

916
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 4: Mark Esper, you want to have Bolton, You want to

917
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 4: have Mark you know, the former Joint Chief of Staff guy.

918
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:34,480
Speaker 4: You want to have those people out there saying this

919
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 4: guy is insane, rightblic.

920
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 1: Who is that? Who is that plane? Right? Who is

921
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 1: that plane? That's Liz Chaney, Liz Changing really yeah, John Bolton, Yeah,

922
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 1: it's all those Republicans who have said, you know, we

923
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 1: saw it from the inside and it's worse than you think.

924
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 4: Because that's the message she needs to drive. And you know,

925
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 4: the General Millie to point he was there when Trump

926
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 4: wanted to bring out the National Guard when there's the

927
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 4: you know, the protests in front of the White House,

928
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 4: right like he saw it firsthand, and now Trump's promising

929
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 4: to do that again, right, And so that's the messaging

930
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 4: I would.

931
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 2: Have, I think the other cohort. And you know, it's

932
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 2: a group that she's started to engage and got a

933
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 2: lot of coverage for her appearance on Call Her Daddy.

934
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 2: And look, Trump is also engaging with YouTubers and these types,

935
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 2: but talking to influencers and people who uh podcasters, YouTubers,

936
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 2: influencers on TikTok and Instagram, and that simply because the

937
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 2: folks who remain in play at this point are the

938
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 2: folks who are the least likely to be consuming political

939
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: news and media. They're they're far more disengaged from this.

940
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 2: I did pulling much earlier this year with rural voters

941
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 2: across battleground states, and one thing that we saw in

942
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:03,440
Speaker 2: poll and distracts with other campaign polls I've done this

943
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 2: year that undecided voters are far more likely to get

944
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 2: their news and information from social media and also just

945
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 2: from what their friends and family tell them, Like these

946
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 2: are people who want to know from their more well

947
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 2: informed friends, like who are they voting for and why?

948
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 2: So reaching people across media that you know, feel maybe

949
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:27,919
Speaker 2: less political. I'm reaching people who maybe don't know who

950
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney is, who don't know who John Bolton is,

951
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 2: who are not following uh.

952
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 3: These pieces as closely.

953
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:37,920
Speaker 2: And I you know, I think this is particularly younger voters,

954
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 2: younger voters of color as well. That that's important. And

955
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 2: so you know, you mentioned, you know, Lebron James and

956
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 2: other athletes. I think that's a big part of this.

957
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 2: But you know, I think getting folks who feel less

958
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 2: political and nonetheless are sort of trusted figures in people's lives.

959
01:01:56,440 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 2: That to me is a key part of getting across

960
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 2: the finish line with with undecided and persuadable voters at

961
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 2: this point, because they're just less engaged with, you know,

962
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 2: reading the newspaper, watching the nightly news, those types of things.

963
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 1: Last question for you both, what a president George W.

964
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 1: Bush endorsement matter war? Kamala Harris, Yes, it's funny. I was.

965
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 4: I woke up this morning saying, God, I wonder if

966
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 4: Bush would do that, because I do think.

967
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:27,640
Speaker 1: It would matter.

968
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:30,479
Speaker 2: Patrick, Yeah, I think it's I think it would matter

969
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:37,160
Speaker 2: in particular in terms of just demonstrating she's the unity candidate.

970
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:39,560
Speaker 2: I think to the earlier conversation that we were having

971
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 2: about why can't Democrats sort of win a clear majority

972
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 2: given who this guy is, Bush might be someone who's

973
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 2: uniquely able to to to really say we all have

974
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:55,200
Speaker 2: to come together behind her. That said, you know, she

975
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: does need to be mindful of her vulnerabilities on the

976
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 2: left and her ability to enthuse her base as well.

977
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 2: You know, she certainly does not want to be seen

978
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 2: as someone who's too liberal. I think it's important that

979
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 2: that embrace sort of reflect the type of leader that

980
01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 2: she is, rather than a particular perspective on foreign policy

981
01:03:16,880 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 2: and war that could be alienating to younger voters that

982
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 2: she still needs to count on to turn out and

983
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 2: vote for her.

984
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 3: Particularly in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

985
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 1: Well, I want to turn it over to you guys

986
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 1: to close it out. I'll give Greg the first word,

987
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 1: Patrick the second word. Walk us through what Harris has

988
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:41,000
Speaker 1: to do and what Trump has to do to close

989
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: this out to be declared the winner on election night.

990
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 4: Well, so I think right now all roads lead through Pennsylvania.

991
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 4: I think that's the most important thing. And I think

992
01:03:52,800 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 4: that Trump right now is doing what he needs to

993
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:58,920
Speaker 4: do to be successful, and that's making it and issues

994
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 4: referendum on the last four years of Biden. Harris, I

995
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 4: think that, you know, we've talked about a lot today,

996
01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 4: but you know, she really needs to find a a

997
01:04:10,320 --> 01:04:14,120
Speaker 4: pivot to get this back onto a referendum of the

998
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:19,920
Speaker 4: you know, character and leadership style of Donald Trump, because

999
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 4: you know, that key voter that's in the middle at

1000
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:25,400
Speaker 4: the end here is that people who like Trump's policies,

1001
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 4: but don't like his leadership style, and so she needs

1002
01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 4: to make it all about his leadership style. That's why

1003
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 4: I like she missed the opportunity on the enemy from

1004
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:35,720
Speaker 4: within hidden stuff.

1005
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:36,880
Speaker 1: Over the weekend.

1006
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 4: Maybe she'll you know, realize it and start But it's like,

1007
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 4: you have to be nimble in this game, and you

1008
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:47,840
Speaker 4: speed kills, and if you let an opportunity like that

1009
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:50,720
Speaker 4: go by, pretty soon we're onto something new and we're

1010
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,240
Speaker 4: about to have you know, you know, Israel is about

1011
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 4: to start shooting it Iran. So there's going to be

1012
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 4: a whole, you know, kind of week that's going to

1013
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:01,480
Speaker 4: be missing from people. I'll pay attention to this race

1014
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:03,320
Speaker 4: because they're paying attention what's happening on Ran.

1015
01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Greg and I are completely on the

1016
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 2: same page here. She needs to stay laser focused on

1017
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:11,959
Speaker 2: this is not someone who is going to make your

1018
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 2: family safer. Who's he's going to go off the rails

1019
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 2: and you're going to pay the price. I think another

1020
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 2: component of that that maybe she needs to lead into

1021
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 2: specifically in the final weeks is just exhaustion with Trump

1022
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 2: as well and tap into that emotional feeling. It's this

1023
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 2: this guy doesn't have the right temperament to lead the country.

1024
01:05:36,520 --> 01:05:40,080
Speaker 2: And he's going to make you feel stressed and anxious

1025
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 2: every day for the next four years. And you remember

1026
01:05:43,400 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: what that was like when he was president already, And

1027
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:50,400
Speaker 2: here is the opportunity to finally be done. That I

1028
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 2: think is a key component. It's just tapping into this

1029
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 2: feeling that people are really ready to move on, and

1030
01:05:57,200 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 2: she needs to position herself as that opportunity to move

1031
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 2: on from from from Trump, specifically and implicitly from from Biden.

1032
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 1: Gentlemen, thank you for great conversation. Thank you, thanks for

1033
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:10,640
Speaker 1: having us.

1034
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 3: Steve, thank you.

1035
01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 1: I'm Steve Schmidt. This is the warning and I invite

1036
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: you to join. Subscribe on our substack, on our YouTube channel,

1037
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:24,240
Speaker 1: follow us. Welcome to the community.