Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris ad.
Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite
Speaker 1: and our least favorite bets for the week fourteen NFL
Speaker 1: Slate With me to talk about it. All is Ian McMillan,
Speaker 1: a writer for oddshark dot com and my eighth favorite
Speaker 1: guest that we've ever had. You can find them on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Ian macOS I'm gonna spell that for you
Speaker 1: as I always do. That's at IAI n mac m
Speaker 1: a CEOs Ian. Thank you for coming back on how
Speaker 1: you doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic. Did you say I'm your eighth favorite guest?
Speaker 1: That's correct? I have a leader board? Yeah, oh yeah, man,
Speaker 1: come on, I have a leader board.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Look, I've got to be honest. The difference between you
Speaker 1: and number six not that much. So you can really
Speaker 1: push head right now if you kind of bring your all.
Speaker 3: Are you ready to do that?
Speaker 2: I am definitely ready to do that.
Speaker 3: All right, Well, you guys know how this goes by.
Speaker 1: Now, Ian and I are going to give our three
Speaker 1: best bets for this weekend's games. We're gonna give you
Speaker 1: one bet to avoid, and then we're gonna list our
Speaker 1: favorite prop of the week. But first we need to
Speaker 1: review last week. And I realize now that I have
Speaker 1: never named this segment where I review what the guests
Speaker 1: and I did last week. So Ian I figure, you know,
Speaker 1: we're bearing all from last week. We're not hiding anything.
Speaker 1: How does calling this one the full Monty sound to you?
Speaker 3: Is that cool?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Sounds pretty good to me.
Speaker 1: Wonderful, So great, everyone listening, get ready, Dan Harris is
Speaker 1: about to go full Monty, and I'll warn you it's
Speaker 1: not pretty. I hit on my best bet, which was
Speaker 1: the Rams laying three to the Cardinals, but I missed
Speaker 1: on both the Cowboys Bills over forty seven and the
Speaker 1: Jets Bangals over forty one and a half, as well
Speaker 1: as my top prop of DJ Chark over one hundred
Speaker 1: receiving yards. And our guest Steve Merrill hit on his
Speaker 1: top pick, the Packers laying six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Giants, but he missed on the forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: Ravens over forty seven, the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers over two hundred and fifty passing yards.
Speaker 1: So it is time to bounce back and Ian, if
Speaker 1: you want to rise in the rankings, I suggest you
Speaker 1: be accurate today. You're gonna get u started here with
Speaker 1: pick six. We're each gonna give three of our best bets.
Speaker 1: Start us off.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, my first one is I would say my
Speaker 2: number one favorite bet for this weekend. It's the forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers plus two and a half over the Saints.
Speaker 2: You know a lot of people don't They always talk
Speaker 2: about the Patriots and their impressive defense, but the forty
Speaker 2: nine ers are actually the team they give up the
Speaker 2: fewest yards per game, and I actually think the Saints
Speaker 2: are a little bit overrated. I think if any team
Speaker 2: the NFC that's in the playoffs right now is what
Speaker 2: some people would say a fraud, I would say it's
Speaker 2: the Saints just because their schedule has been so easy
Speaker 2: since earlier in the season. Really, their last tough game
Speaker 2: was against the Cowboys, but Week four, I believe that
Speaker 2: was so. I think the forty nine ers are getting
Speaker 2: undervalued almost every single week. I don't know when people
Speaker 2: are gonna catch on that this is one of the
Speaker 2: best teams in so getting them as an underdog two
Speaker 2: and a half points, I'll take that all day. So
Speaker 2: forty nine ers plus and a.
Speaker 1: Half, So do you fear it all? I mean, look,
Speaker 1: this is a big game for both teams. The forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers, I believe, are now the fifth seed. The
Speaker 1: Seahawks have passed them, so they're desperate for a win.
Speaker 1: But the Saints here, I mean, they've got to take
Speaker 1: this win to be able to try to clinch home field.
Speaker 1: That's going to be a big thing for them in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And Drew Brees at home? Are you not
Speaker 1: scared at all about you know, look, he's usually pretty
Speaker 1: good in big games at home.
Speaker 3: That place is going to be crazy.
Speaker 1: You think the forty nine Ers, who are coming off
Speaker 1: a game, by the way, a tough game there where
Speaker 1: they you know, really went toe to toe with the Ravens,
Speaker 1: a lot of hard hitting on a shorter week than
Speaker 1: the Saints, who are coming off a Thanksgiving game. They've
Speaker 1: had extra time. You still think in this game, even
Speaker 1: though again the betters are with you because the spread
Speaker 1: when it opened when I saw it was three, so
Speaker 1: it's down to two and a half, you still confident
Speaker 1: there that the forty nine ers can kind of overcome
Speaker 1: all those variables, I am man.
Speaker 2: I mean you you mentioned the Saints at home. The
Speaker 2: Saints are actually two and seven against the spread in
Speaker 2: their last nine games as a home favorite, so I
Speaker 2: think their home field advantage might be a little bit overvalued. Also,
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers four to zero against his spread
Speaker 2: in the last four games as a road underdog. So
Speaker 2: both those kind of trends favor my pick. So of course,
Speaker 2: I mean I'm a little bit worried, Yeah, of course,
Speaker 2: but no, it's not enough to not enough to deter
Speaker 2: me from taking the forty nine ers out of curiosity.
Speaker 1: How do you see the game unfolding? You think they're
Speaker 1: gonna go toe to toe scoring a ton of points.
Speaker 1: Both teams are pretty decent defensively. You think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be sort of a closer battle like that, or just
Speaker 1: generally speaking, how do you see it?
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a game people are going
Speaker 2: to really start to question Drew Drew Brees. I think
Speaker 2: he's just I don't know if he has the zip
Speaker 2: in his arm that he quite that he used to have.
Speaker 2: So I see the forty nine Ers winning actually by
Speaker 2: double digits.
Speaker 1: All right, well, one of the reasons I asked you
Speaker 1: that was not just to get your outstanding analysis, and
Speaker 1: it was a great statu by the way, about the
Speaker 1: Saints at home with the spread, but really because it's
Speaker 1: going to lead into my pick, which I was gonna
Speaker 1: give a little later, but it dovetails perfectly with yours,
Speaker 1: which is this same game the forty nine Ers and
Speaker 1: the Saints under forty four and a half. Now you've
Speaker 1: laid out a lot of the reasons, and really, when
Speaker 1: you're looking at the over under in this game, it's
Speaker 1: not rocket science. You've got two elite teams, two very
Speaker 1: good defenses. As I mentioned, the forty nine Ers are
Speaker 1: coming off that tough, grinded out game against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: They're excellent with the run, but that's kind of where
Speaker 1: the Saints specialize. That's the strength of their defense against
Speaker 1: the run. They're coming on the road again for the
Speaker 1: second straight week, in this crazy environment where you've got
Speaker 1: you know the fans are going to be nuts, and
Speaker 1: so you look at the forty nine Ers. When they
Speaker 1: put up a lot of points, they usually do it
Speaker 1: by getting a lot of turnovers. They're third in the
Speaker 1: league with twenty nine turnovers. But in games that they
Speaker 1: don't go crazy in terms of scoring, it's usually when
Speaker 1: they're unable to force a ton of turnovers, and I
Speaker 1: think that's what's going to happen here. The Saints have
Speaker 1: turned it over just seven times on the season, that's
Speaker 1: the fewest in the league. And when you look at
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, you mentioned the deal
Speaker 1: with Drew Brees, the offense just is not dynamic at
Speaker 1: the moment. I'm not sure whether or not Breeze is
Speaker 1: just feeling his age. He's obviously getting up there. Maybe
Speaker 1: he hasn't quite fully recovered from that thumb injury. We
Speaker 1: obviously had the surgery on the ligaments, so maybe that's it.
Speaker 1: But he certainly does not look any work close to
Speaker 1: even the Breeze we saw two years ago. At this point,
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara has not really gotten it going since coming
Speaker 1: back from his injuries. So they're really not at the
Speaker 1: point where they're gonna be able to put up a
Speaker 1: ton of points, especially, as you mentioned, on a great
Speaker 1: defense like the forty nine ers. So you know, forty
Speaker 1: four and a half, that's not a crazy number, it's
Speaker 1: not really all that high, but it's certainly not overly low,
Speaker 1: So I think for me, I'm not sure I'm confident
Speaker 1: on either side in terms of the spread. You make
Speaker 1: a lot of good points, but for me, I see
Speaker 1: the total kind of here as coming in under forty
Speaker 1: four and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I to be honest, I like that pick a
Speaker 2: lot too. On the total, I would le lean the
Speaker 2: under as well. For forty nine. Ers are have the
Speaker 2: second most rushing attempts per game as well, So anytime
Speaker 2: you have a team that likes to run the ball
Speaker 2: a lot, that's going to keep the clock moving, and
Speaker 2: the more the clock moves, that helps the under. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I like the under there as well. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think both teams are going to try to control
Speaker 1: this game. I don't think anybody's gonna be like, let's,
Speaker 1: you know, push it down the field and score points.
Speaker 3: So I feel pretty good about that one. Let's move
Speaker 3: on to your second pick.
Speaker 2: What do you have? So for my second pick, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go are you oh right? Okay, yeah, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go Jet or sorry, Dolphins plus five versus the Jets.
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, are you are you a Jets fan?
Speaker 3: I have a Jets?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, I just want to make it clear.
Speaker 1: You have now moved up to seventh in the overall
Speaker 1: guest right just by remembering that, So you're on ahead.
Speaker 2: But I might drop back down in the ranking because
Speaker 2: I'm gonna betting against the Jets. I'm taking the Dolphins
Speaker 2: plus five in this game. To be honest, I think
Speaker 2: the Jets. I think they had that momentum after Sam
Speaker 2: Darnold said, hey, if we run the table, we're going
Speaker 2: to uh we have a chance of the playoffs, and
Speaker 2: then they won a few games back to back and
Speaker 2: then losing last week and just getting absolutely crushed in
Speaker 2: that game. That's that's a momentum killer. That's a morale killer.
Speaker 2: And then on the other side of the thing, on
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and
Speaker 2: the Dolphins, Ryan Fitzpatrick going against his old team, and
Speaker 2: we saw a little bit of fitzmagic. U O to
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick last week. He's you know, it's it's classic him.
Speaker 2: He's gonna throw the ball. He can throw for two, three,
Speaker 2: four touchdowns in a game. So I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 2: if the Jets actually do win this game. But I
Speaker 2: think five. I think five is too many points, and
Speaker 2: the Dolphins are just kind of they're at the point
Speaker 2: of the season now they know that they suck. They know,
Speaker 2: you know, obviously they're eliminated, eliminated from the playoffs, but
Speaker 2: they're kind of because they've accepted that fact. It looks
Speaker 2: like they're actually like playing with a little bit of fun.
Speaker 2: You saw that trick play, that wild trick play that
Speaker 2: they had last week to score the touchdown. It's like
Speaker 2: they're kind of just having fun out there. And if
Speaker 2: you're gonna have fun, you're gonna play loose, and that's
Speaker 2: when you can kind of win games, especially against teams
Speaker 2: that might be a little bit more demoralized after that
Speaker 2: tough loss last week. So uh yeah, I like the
Speaker 2: Dolphins and I and another thing to keep in mind
Speaker 2: with the Dolphins as well, against the spread this year,
Speaker 2: they aren't too bad. They're six and two, I believe
Speaker 2: it is again in the last eight games as an underdog,
Speaker 2: which is the last eight games, I don't think they've
Speaker 2: been a favorite. So I think the Dolphins are a
Speaker 2: little undervalued here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think all of that is fair,
Speaker 1: and especially with Jamal Adams probably going to miss the game,
Speaker 1: that's certainly changes thing with the Jets. But I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: I you know, this is a game where you know,
Speaker 1: when I'm looking at the breakdown, it kind of looks
Speaker 1: like there's a little bit of a difference between the
Speaker 1: public side and the sharp side. Sharp side seems to
Speaker 1: be a little bit on the Jets, and you get
Speaker 1: it because sort of classic is you know, by low
Speaker 1: Sell high a little bit. Right, the Jets are in
Speaker 1: the perfect spot where you'd be like, Okay, they had
Speaker 1: put up thirty four points in three straight games. They
Speaker 1: lay a complete egg against the Bengals. They're not as
Speaker 1: bad as that, but the public's going to look at that. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins come off that awesome win against the Eagles,
Speaker 1: whereas you mentioned it, the crazy trick play that they
Speaker 1: ran right near the goal line. So it is a
Speaker 1: spot and the spread has moved, you know, look ahead
Speaker 1: might have been seven. I think it's down to five.
Speaker 1: So you know, certainly it's something where when I look
Speaker 1: at it, generally, the factors generally you kind of just
Speaker 1: look at the basic ones. They would favor the Dolphins. Right,
Speaker 1: They're coming off the big win, they're playing loose, they're
Speaker 1: playing fun. You know, they don't fits magic. It's certainly
Speaker 1: you know, on the upswing right now he's got he
Speaker 1: goes through these periods where he's dominant with the Jets.
Speaker 3: You could just see them totally being.
Speaker 1: Like, all right, man, well that was it. Jamal Adams
Speaker 1: went down, Le'Veon bells, touches are trending down. Sam Darnold
Speaker 1: is banged up. But I honestly, if I'm forced to
Speaker 1: bet this, this just kind of strikes me as the
Speaker 1: last hurrah for the Jets. They've got tough games coming up,
Speaker 1: They've got the Ravens coming up. This might be their
Speaker 1: last chance here for a win. And I kind of
Speaker 1: feel like they're gonna come out and they're gonna put
Speaker 1: a herding on the Dolphins because I think the public
Speaker 1: side is going to be so with the Dolphins. So
Speaker 1: I get your side of it. I can't really point
Speaker 1: to any specific, you know, metrics or anything like that,
Speaker 1: or even really a narrative that disagrees with where you're going.
Speaker 1: But for me, when I look at it, I think
Speaker 1: this is one where I'm probably going to be taking
Speaker 1: the Jets. And you know, I wasn't as sure when
Speaker 1: it was six or six and a half even, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's a dead number once you're down that low regardless.
Speaker 1: But I think at five, I think I leaned towards
Speaker 1: the Jets. But you know again I'm not I'm not,
Speaker 1: you know, going after you too hard on that one,
Speaker 1: because I think you're probably gonna I think the majority
Speaker 1: of experts on our site are going to go with it,
Speaker 1: But for me, I think I'm gonna only with the
Speaker 1: Jets there.
Speaker 2: Getting five, Yeah, no, that's fair. And also, I mean
Speaker 2: it is a divisional game, so divisional games, anything can happen.
Speaker 2: I mean, both teams know each other so well, so
Speaker 2: that's also why I kind of I like to have
Speaker 2: the points and divisional matchups.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, By the way I said getting five, of course
Speaker 1: I'm in giving five. But yeah, it's gonna be an
Speaker 1: interesting one. But again, this strikes me as sort of like,
Speaker 1: all right, the last hurrah. You know, I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised that Le'Veon Bellvin you know, gets shut down earlier
Speaker 1: or anything like that. This is kind of their last
Speaker 1: time they lost against the Dolphins. They probably want a
Speaker 1: little bit of a revenge there, so I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna come out firing.
Speaker 3: So we'll see about that.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: My next game is one.
Speaker 1: Where I kind of am sort of doing the opposite
Speaker 1: of what I just said, Like the classic Bilo cell Hi.
Speaker 1: I'm not doing that with this game, unfortunately, and that
Speaker 1: is the Titans laying three to the Raiders. Now, when
Speaker 1: I first looked at this, it was down to two
Speaker 1: and a half. That's where I got it on the
Speaker 1: betting pros on when I make my picks, because you
Speaker 1: can get it in whenever you pick what the odds are.
Speaker 3: So I took them at two and a half. It's
Speaker 3: back up to three. I look at this line, it
Speaker 3: just it.
Speaker 1: Feels to me like it should be significantly different. And
Speaker 1: that's just not how everybody is looking at it. The
Speaker 1: consensus are pretty split down the middle at what this
Speaker 1: game should be. The sharp money looks like it's coming
Speaker 1: in on the Raiders. So I have a question for you, Ian.
Speaker 1: Are the Jets who we just talked about, are they
Speaker 1: a good team? Are they a good football team? You
Speaker 1: can be hon it, don't don't don't hide it. You
Speaker 1: can be honest with me. Are the Jets a good
Speaker 1: football team?
Speaker 2: I would say they're the definition of average.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: I would say they're below They're below average. Man, But
Speaker 1: you're killing my narrative. Are the Jaguars a good football team?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 3: Are the Falcons a good football team?
Speaker 2: Oh? I'm a Falcons fan, so I'm gonna say, of
Speaker 2: course no.
Speaker 1: But no, I'll say all three of those teams have
Speaker 1: a better point differential than the Raiders this season. So again,
Speaker 1: this is the bylows cell high part.
Speaker 3: Right, the Raiders.
Speaker 1: You know, I've gotten beaten up pretty good by the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Chiefs. Both of them were in colder
Speaker 1: weather where Derek Carr usually struggles.
Speaker 3: They're coming home.
Speaker 1: They've had this rutal travel schedule all season, so you're
Speaker 1: kind of like, Okay, this is a spot where you know,
Speaker 1: maybe now you can buylow on them. The Titans, meanwhile,
Speaker 1: they're on the role. They've won a bunch of games,
Speaker 1: but a lot of them kind of on fluky you
Speaker 1: know plays here. I mean, the easily could have lost
Speaker 1: to the Bucks, they could have lost to the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: they could have lost to the Colts. But I really
Speaker 1: don't see this as a game that the Raiders are
Speaker 1: gonna win. I mean I could see it, I guess
Speaker 1: getting to a push if everything breaks right, But overall,
Speaker 1: I'm not concerned. They have to be able to run
Speaker 1: the ball. The Raiders with Josh Jacobs, that is the
Speaker 1: bottom line. That is how their offense has to function.
Speaker 1: And right now, Jacobs is playing through a fractured right shoulder.
Speaker 1: According to him, I mean, you know that's great. He's
Speaker 1: missed practice for most of the week. And the Titans
Speaker 1: are one of the best teams against the run. They
Speaker 1: allowed just four yards per carry, seventh best in the NFL.
Speaker 1: The Raiders have lost Hunter renferral Tyrell Williams is a
Speaker 1: shell of himself as he battles planter fasciitis. The Titans
Speaker 1: defense is just strong. They allowed just nineteen and a
Speaker 1: half points per game. That's eighth best in the NFL.
Speaker 1: So I don't really feel like this is a bi
Speaker 1: low opportunity for the and their offense. And meanwhile, Ryan
Speaker 1: Tannehill is playing great football. I mean this is not
Speaker 1: just where he's like, wow, look at them, they're winning,
Speaker 1: because it's not Marcus Mariotta. No, affirmatively, he is playing
Speaker 1: excellent football right now. He's incredibly accurate, he's decisive, he's
Speaker 1: using his legs. The team is averaging twenty nine point
Speaker 1: seven points per game with Tannehill under center.
Speaker 3: It is late in the season.
Speaker 1: Nobody wants to get in Derrick Henry's way when he's running,
Speaker 1: which leads to a ton of red zone efficiency, especially
Speaker 1: now that Tannehill has taken over and they're moving the
Speaker 1: ball well. The Raiders to strike me as a team
Speaker 1: that look like they're on the verge of giving up.
Speaker 1: They had this great run, they were suddenly in contention,
Speaker 1: and now it just looks like it's kind of all
Speaker 1: falling apart. The Titans are surging. I buy their recent performance.
Speaker 1: So I really really like this game, and it's weird
Speaker 1: to me that I'm kind of on the wrong side
Speaker 1: of it when you look at the way the sharp
Speaker 1: money is coming in. But I will take the Titans
Speaker 1: laying three to the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that pick. I'm not going to bet
Speaker 2: on this on that game myself. The hardest thing about
Speaker 2: betting on the NFL is there's not very many games
Speaker 2: in a season, like we're at the end of the
Speaker 2: season now and the teams have only played twelve games
Speaker 2: with the bye week, so you just don't have a
Speaker 2: big sample size. And when that happens some teams, half
Speaker 2: the games they look like they're a great team. The
Speaker 2: other half the games they look like a terrible team,
Speaker 2: and you just don't have enough games to look at.
Speaker 2: And both these teams, in my opinion, fall into that
Speaker 2: category where I just don't know what I'm gonna get
Speaker 2: from either team because I haven't seen them play enough,
Speaker 2: and it's just been so one side or the other.
Speaker 2: The Titans beat the Chiefs one week, and then you know,
Speaker 2: they get shut out by the Broncos another week, and
Speaker 2: the Raiders are just like that. So I like the pick.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a stay away for me, though, just
Speaker 2: because both those teams throw the Buccaneers in with them
Speaker 2: as well, just teams it's impossible to bet on because
Speaker 2: I have no idea what team's gonna show up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can look. I can see me looking back,
Speaker 1: you know, in this game on Monday, being like why
Speaker 1: what was I thinking? Why was I looking at it
Speaker 1: this way? But right now I'm totally in on the
Speaker 1: Titans at this point. And you know, again, even though
Speaker 1: they could have easily lost, you know, I don't know
Speaker 1: half the games at Tennel started. I mean those games,
Speaker 1: you know, in the end they did find ways to win,
Speaker 1: and I trust their defense, and it's as much of
Speaker 1: a sell. I'm going to continue to sell the Raiders
Speaker 1: right now with the way they're looking lately, as I
Speaker 1: am buying the Titans. But let's move on here to
Speaker 1: your third pick.
Speaker 2: What do you have? Yes, my third pick here, So
Speaker 2: I took two underdogs in my first two picks. I'm
Speaker 2: going to take a favorite here, and this kind of
Speaker 2: follows the same theme. Now I'm going against what I
Speaker 2: kind of did with my last pick, where I'm now
Speaker 2: going to buy low on a team. So I'm gonna
Speaker 2: take the Patriots minus three against the Chiefs. And I mean,
Speaker 2: we see this year in a year out of at
Speaker 2: some point in every single season, the Patriots put a
Speaker 2: couple of average, not so great games kind of in
Speaker 2: a string, and people start questioning, oh, it's Tom Brady
Speaker 2: washed up? Are the Patriots dynasty? Is their dynasty finally over?
Speaker 2: And you're starting to hear whispers of it after their
Speaker 2: loss last week. So I think this is a good
Speaker 2: time to buy the Patriots. I mean, they're still a favorite,
Speaker 2: but it's three points. As long as it stays at
Speaker 2: that three point mark, then I'm happy. With it. And
Speaker 2: don't forget the Patriots are at home too, and they're
Speaker 2: I mean, they're unreal at home. They've won twenty one
Speaker 2: straight games at home. They're sixteen and five against the
Speaker 2: spread in those games. They still have the arguably the
Speaker 2: best defense in the league. You could argue maybe the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers now Patriots defense and have a great
Speaker 2: week last week, but their defense is fantastic. Tom Brady,
Speaker 2: yeah he might have slowed down a bit, but you
Speaker 2: can't discount Tom Brady. And the running game is great.
Speaker 2: So and then the Chiefs for the other team, the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: their defense has not looked good. I don't think they're
Speaker 2: the chief the same Chiefs that they had last year
Speaker 2: after losing a couple of pieces of a couple of
Speaker 2: players on defense. So I think it's a great time
Speaker 2: to buy the Patriots low. I'm going to take them
Speaker 2: minus three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't disagree with anything that you're saying. And
Speaker 1: they're coming off the loss by the way too right,
Speaker 1: and then coming home. It just seems unfathomable that they
Speaker 1: would lose this game. But I think this is gonna
Speaker 1: be one where I'm gonna wind up staying away from it.
Speaker 3: As well. And again, if I do go in on it,
Speaker 3: I'm almost.
Speaker 1: Certainly gonna go with the Patriots for all the reasons
Speaker 1: that you're saying. But in the end, man, there are
Speaker 1: two things that make me a little nervous. One is
Speaker 1: that the defense, as good as it is, the one
Speaker 1: bugaboo I feel like they kind of have that you see,
Speaker 1: is that they struggle a little bit with mobile quarterbacks
Speaker 1: because they play so much man defense. They rely on
Speaker 1: their corners who just kind of have their back to
Speaker 1: the quarterback right, They're just playing up on their men.
Speaker 1: That that leaves them vulnerable a little bit to guys
Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson, to guys like Deshaun Watson, even when
Speaker 1: the running totals aren't there necessarily for the quarterbacks, I
Speaker 1: think that style gives them a little bit of trouble.
Speaker 1: You saw, you know Mahomes. He obviously had the knee injury,
Speaker 1: but since he's been back, he hasn't been running like crazy,
Speaker 1: but he scored a rushing touchdown last week. He had
Speaker 1: about twenty five yards. He has that threat, So it
Speaker 1: makes me a tiny bit worried there. And the other
Speaker 1: thing is, Man, look, I'm a Jets fan as we
Speaker 1: talked about I don't think the end is ever gonna
Speaker 1: come for Tom Brady. And we've looked at this each
Speaker 1: of you know, the last several years. We'd be like, oh,
Speaker 1: this has got to be done, this has got to
Speaker 1: be done. But you know, as much as it is
Speaker 1: about him, and I know he's on the injury report
Speaker 1: this week apparently with both an elbow.
Speaker 3: And now a toe injury.
Speaker 1: Who knows, but you know, he's getting hit a lot,
Speaker 1: and the receivers other than Edelman are just kind of raw.
Speaker 1: I mean, sew Is, everybody's been in and out. Door
Speaker 1: set has been in and out, you know, the young kids, Harry,
Speaker 1: you know, he obviously ran the wrong route the other
Speaker 1: day and in the last game, and Brady was pretty
Speaker 1: fired up about that.
Speaker 3: It gets me a little worried about just.
Speaker 1: Being like, well, they're the Patriots. Of course they're going
Speaker 1: to bounce back, and we've seen this, I get it.
Speaker 1: Really a little bit worried about their offense. So if
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go in with that set. As much as
Speaker 1: I'm saying negatives, that's really just what's keeping me from
Speaker 1: being all in here on the Patriots and saying, yes,
Speaker 1: this is going to be one of my picks overall.
Speaker 3: If I were forced to pick.
Speaker 1: A side, I would be on your side. But I
Speaker 1: just get a little nervous man watching him. I don't know,
Speaker 1: I've been watching him obviously for twenty years.
Speaker 3: This just this is as bad, I think as i've
Speaker 3: seen him look, So it makes me a little bit nervous.
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are all fair points that you make for sure.
Speaker 3: All Right.
Speaker 1: For my final pick, I'm gonna continue to buy high
Speaker 1: with the team, although to be fair, the team they're
Speaker 1: playing should also be buying high, and that's the Ravens
Speaker 1: laying six to the Bills. When I originally wanted this,
Speaker 1: it was five and a half. That's not a huge
Speaker 1: difference like the little more five and a half. I
Speaker 1: will take it at six. The Bills extremely extremely impressive
Speaker 1: this entire season. That was a huge win over the
Speaker 1: Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Now they're coming home, they are on
Speaker 1: the Patriots heels. There's a legitimate chance that after this
Speaker 1: week they could have the same record as the Patriots.
Speaker 1: I'm still fading them, really, rather than fading them, I'm
Speaker 1: more just buying the Ravens completely and Lamar Jackson. They're
Speaker 1: coming off that tight game in horrible weather against the Niners,
Speaker 1: an elite team. Jackson couldn't throw the ball at all,
Speaker 1: and they still managed to win that game by three.
Speaker 1: The Greg Roman system and Lamar Jackson's play just creates
Speaker 1: what essentially aunt to being an unstoppable force, and it obviously,
Speaker 1: you know their offense, it's almost entirely about the run.
Speaker 1: Jackson has been a far better passer that we've expected,
Speaker 1: but a lot of that is because the running game
Speaker 1: opens everything up, and that's really where you can attack
Speaker 1: the Bills defense on the run, they allow four and
Speaker 1: a half yards per carry. They really struggle when the
Speaker 1: runner gets past that first level, leading to bigger plays.
Speaker 1: The Bills have a great defense, but it's primarily the pass.
Speaker 1: And it's not as if the Ravens sort of rely
Speaker 1: on unstoppable wide receivers or anything. It's all about their scheme.
Speaker 1: They're going to be able to run the ball and
Speaker 1: run it well, and I think they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to put up points kind of at will here
Speaker 1: and I don't see the same thing for the Bills.
Speaker 1: They've been held to twenty one points or fewer in
Speaker 1: seven of their twelve games.
Speaker 3: The Ones they went over.
Speaker 1: That were two against the Dolphins, the Giants, the Redskins,
Speaker 1: and now the Cowboys, none of which have elite defenses.
Speaker 1: Now the Ravens defense is beatable early, but now not
Speaker 1: at all. Brandon Williams being healthy really strength and their
Speaker 1: run defense. They're good in their secondary. Josh Allen hasn't
Speaker 1: thrown many interceptions, but he hasn't been in the position
Speaker 1: of needing to come back. I think he's gonna be here.
Speaker 1: I don't see the Bills as being able to put
Speaker 1: up a ton of points in comeback mode. We saw
Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson against the Ravens that they practice all
Speaker 1: day against Lamar Jackson right said, they know how to
Speaker 1: contain a running quarterback like Allan So I just see
Speaker 1: the Ravens getting ahead here holding on. I don't think
Speaker 1: the Bills are designed to win this type of game.
Speaker 1: So you know, it's six points, it's a lot, but
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win by more than a touchdown.
Speaker 1: So I'll take the Ravens laying six here to the Bills.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that game is a stay away for me, man,
Speaker 2: because this is one of those games where it's like
Speaker 2: all week you lean one side at least for me.
Speaker 2: I've like I leaned Bills early, and then the more
Speaker 2: I look at it, I leaned Ravens, and then I
Speaker 2: was back on Bills. So I don't know. I agree
Speaker 2: with all the points that you that you made. I
Speaker 2: like the Bill. I do kind of like the Bills.
Speaker 2: I mean six six and a half, they're at home.
Speaker 2: If you remember the first Samos on this show, I
Speaker 2: believe it was the right before the opening weekend I
Speaker 2: picked the Bills, or at least I mentioned it that
Speaker 2: I thought the Bills are gonna have a really good
Speaker 2: year and make the playoffs. That turned out to be correct.
Speaker 2: So because of that, I feel like I have like
Speaker 2: a special little attachment to the Bills. It's hard for
Speaker 2: me to bet against them now because of that. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't know if to stay away from me. I
Speaker 2: agree with all the points that you made, though I
Speaker 2: don't hate the pick.
Speaker 1: Hey man, let me make it clear, all right. I
Speaker 1: had the Bills over six and a half for over
Speaker 1: under my best pick at the over underwins coming in
Speaker 1: and I went to school in Buffalo, so I'm basically
Speaker 1: like married to Buffalo at this point. I'm still willing
Speaker 1: to fain them. I get it, they're just you know,
Speaker 1: the game against the Cowboys, that was the first one
Speaker 1: where I really was like, wow, this is impressive. But
Speaker 1: still at this point, I just can't. I can't get
Speaker 1: behind them. I think they're gonna need a lot of
Speaker 1: points here. I don't think they're really going to be
Speaker 1: equipped to put it up, so I'm gonna lay the points.
Speaker 1: A little scary, I agree, but I'm gonna lay them.
Speaker 1: So let's just recap here what we have. You like,
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Saints, the Dolphins getting five from the Jets, and
Speaker 1: the Patriots laying three to the Chiefs. I'm going to
Speaker 1: take the Saints and the forty nine ers under forty
Speaker 1: four and a half, the Titans laying three to the Raiders,
Speaker 1: and the Ravens now laying six.
Speaker 3: To the Bills.
Speaker 1: All right, before we get into our next segment, I
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Speaker 1: hunter gambler. All right, Ian, let's move on to it's
Speaker 1: a trap where we list the line we are avoiding.
Speaker 1: Go ahead and start us off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I briefly touched on this earlier. The game
Speaker 2: I'm avoiding is the Colts in the Bucks, mainly because
Speaker 2: of what I touched on earlier. Justin in Jamis Winston.
Speaker 2: You have no idea what you're gonna get from Jameis Winston,
Speaker 2: even from drive to drive, not even just week to week.
Speaker 2: One drive, he looked like an NFL MVP quarterback. The
Speaker 2: next drive he looks like he shouldn't even be the
Speaker 2: starting quarterback. And that's reflected he's been benched already a
Speaker 2: couple times this year, and then he's come back later
Speaker 2: on the game. So and then on the other side
Speaker 2: of things, the Colts, I feel like we're what thirteen
Speaker 2: fourteen weeks in the season, I still don't know what
Speaker 2: to think about Jacoby Brissett. I feel like I don't.
Speaker 2: I'm still back to square one where it was when
Speaker 2: Andrew Luck announced his retirement. I don't know what we
Speaker 2: get from him. The Colts have beat some good teams,
Speaker 2: but they've lost to some bad teams. The Buccaneers are
Speaker 2: the same way. They've beat some good teams, so they've
Speaker 2: lost to some bad teams. This game makes no sense
Speaker 2: to me. And I will not touch James Winston with
Speaker 2: any kind of bet, and I haven't since like Week
Speaker 2: five of the season, just because I don't know. You
Speaker 2: can't figure Jameis Winston.
Speaker 1: No, So I pretty much was putting whatever Bucks game
Speaker 1: was going on that week in this segment for like
Speaker 1: four or five straight weeks for exactly that. And look,
Speaker 1: if I'm forced to pick a side here, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be the Bucks, just because, you know, as good as
Speaker 1: the Colts looked early on, as good a coach as
Speaker 1: Frank Reich is, this team just seems like a team
Speaker 1: that's right about to kind of shut down here. I mean,
Speaker 1: t Y Hilton's probably out for the season. Even if
Speaker 1: they get Marlon Mack back. They want to run the
Speaker 1: ball the whole time. You cannot do that against the Bucks.
Speaker 1: But on the other side, Yeah, you mentioned it. It's Winston.
Speaker 1: It's all Winston. There's no way that I could feel
Speaker 1: comfortable backing someone like Winston because even if you're in
Speaker 1: a position to cover, there is just this backbreaking pick
Speaker 1: six or fumble waiting to happen at the end. So
Speaker 1: you know, I've tried to stay away from using the
Speaker 1: bucks every time here, So I'm glad that you did,
Speaker 1: because I'm in agreement with you there. As for me,
Speaker 1: I'm avoiding the Eagles laying nine and a half to
Speaker 1: the Giants, so Eli Manning's coming back, and honestly, I'm
Speaker 1: not really sure whether or not that's a positive or
Speaker 1: negative for the Giants at this point, but whatever it is,
Speaker 1: I certainly have no faith that their offense or their
Speaker 1: defense is going to be able to do anything here.
Speaker 1: But there is just no way that you can back
Speaker 1: either the Giants or the Eagles, a team that I
Speaker 1: took last week laying ten to the Dolphins and who
Speaker 1: got beat outright as we talked about, they have been
Speaker 1: injured for much of the season, They've dealt with a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff, but there's just something missing from this team.
Speaker 3: I don't know what it is. But it's missing.
Speaker 1: So if you can go out and put up that
Speaker 1: performance against the Dolphins after the Cowboys gave you an
Speaker 1: opening like that, under no circumstances can you be trusted,
Speaker 1: let alone laying nearly double digits. And add to that
Speaker 1: that this is a divisional game, two teams that know
Speaker 1: each other very well. It's just something where I'm gonna
Speaker 1: completely avoid. So I'm not going anywhere near the Eagles
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the Giants.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. If
Speaker 2: it was a Sunday two o'clock in the afternoon game,
Speaker 2: I would stay away from it too, But it's a
Speaker 2: primetime game, and I think I'm legally obligated to bet
Speaker 2: primetime game, so I have to bet on it. I'm
Speaker 2: probably just gonna take the under and call it a day.
Speaker 2: But I agree with all with all the points. To me,
Speaker 2: a tough one.
Speaker 3: If you had to make a pick, which would it
Speaker 3: be on a side?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Giants, I think I'd go Giants. Believe in Eli Maning.
Speaker 2: He's his record I saw is exactly five hundred, so
Speaker 2: he needs that one win to get over the five
Speaker 2: hundred marks.
Speaker 1: So yeah, give me the giants, and I guess you
Speaker 1: could see him just being like, all right, let's, you know,
Speaker 1: throw caution to the wind. Here, it's, you know, on
Speaker 1: my last Monday Night game, Let's go crazy. But I
Speaker 1: certainly will be sitting on the sidelines of this one
Speaker 1: and not going anywhere near. So I'm avoiding the Eagles
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the giants, and you
Speaker 1: are avoiding the Bucks laying three to the cults. Now,
Speaker 1: before we get into our final segment, remember we've got
Speaker 1: a signed Michael Thomas helmet giveaway contest going on. You
Speaker 1: can get more details over at bettingpros dot com slash contest,
Speaker 1: but to be entered, just leave a review for the
Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Send a screenshot of
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, I
Speaker 1: said on Monday's show that I was going to announce
Speaker 1: the winner of the Odell Beckham Junior helmet giveaway on
Speaker 1: this show, But I'm a big old liar. I will
Speaker 1: announce it on Monday's show, though, however, I promise, and
Speaker 1: the winner will be notified and everything will be perfect.
Speaker 1: My bad on that one. All Right, it is time
Speaker 1: for Top prop. Will we list our top player prop
Speaker 1: of the week? Ian get Us started.
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm taking and I actually love this prop bet.
Speaker 2: I'm taking Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five
Speaker 2: rushing yards against the Bengals at plus one oh six. So,
Speaker 2: first off, Nick Chubb is averaging the most rushing attempts
Speaker 2: per game in the NFL right now, is averaging nineteen
Speaker 2: point eight rushing yards or sorry, rushing attempts per game.
Speaker 2: And then rushing yards per attempt, he's averaging four point nine.
Speaker 2: So Nick Chubb not a lot of people are talking
Speaker 2: about him, but he's actually quietly been one of the
Speaker 2: best running backs in the entire league. And then when
Speaker 2: you look at the Bengals defense, they are one of
Speaker 2: the worst rush actually, they are the worst rush defense
Speaker 2: in the entire league, allowing one hundred and fifty seven
Speaker 2: point six rush yards per game. So this seems like
Speaker 2: a layup to me, It seems like the obvious bet
Speaker 2: to make. I think Nick Chubb is gonna have a
Speaker 2: big game the Browns. I mean, they're seasons basically all
Speaker 2: bit over, so I think they're gonna think I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna come out and run hard against the Bengals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like to pick.
Speaker 1: I'd be a little worried about the fact that Kareem
Speaker 1: Hunt continues to kind of siphon off some carries since
Speaker 1: he's been back, you know, with Chubb. But in the end,
Speaker 1: it's such a great matchup. They are gonna run it
Speaker 1: all the time. And you know, Bigger Mayfield. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not nothing the hand injury that he has. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's poop pooing and everything like that, but it really
Speaker 1: looked like it was affecting him. So I think they
Speaker 1: are gonna come out it's getting cold, They're gonna lean
Speaker 1: on the run, So I like it.
Speaker 3: It's bold.
Speaker 1: That's a high number. I'm gonna go with a smaller
Speaker 1: number and a much much worse running back. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with Darius Guys over seventy five rushing yards against
Speaker 1: the Packers. That's at plus one ninety, so you're almost
Speaker 1: getting two to one on your money. You know you
Speaker 1: can run against the Packers. There are two big negatives
Speaker 1: here for the Redskins. Got the game script, they're probably
Speaker 1: gonna be behind, and the fact that Guys is likely
Speaker 1: gonna split work with Adrian Peterson again. But again you know,
Speaker 1: two to one on your money, you're obviously taking for
Speaker 1: the odds. Guys has yet to receive more than ten
Speaker 1: carries in a game. I think he's gonna get more
Speaker 1: than that in this one. He's shown that he's health
Speaker 1: he's running well. I think they want to let him
Speaker 1: run a little bit towards the end of the season
Speaker 1: to get him ready going into next season. It's in
Speaker 1: Green Bay. It's not going to be the prettiest weather.
Speaker 1: I mean it's not bad or anything, but it's not
Speaker 1: going to be balmy or anything like that. Dwayne Haskins
Speaker 1: cannot pass against a bad against a very good pass defense,
Speaker 1: so they're certainly going to want to run it against
Speaker 1: sort of the Packers Achilles Heel, which is their run defense.
Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of running. As again,
Speaker 1: the Redskins have basically done since Bill Callahan took over.
Speaker 1: They're just you know, they play the fastest games in
Speaker 1: the NFL because they just run non stop. Even with
Speaker 1: splitting time with Adrian Peterson, I think guys can still
Speaker 1: see fifteen carries. I think he can get to that
Speaker 1: seventy five yard number. So for me, given the fact
Speaker 1: that it's basically two to one. I will take Darius
Speaker 1: Guy's over seventy five rushing yards up plus one ninety
Speaker 1: I have.
Speaker 2: I love that. I mean he look at the game
Speaker 2: he had, Lot, he had a monster game last weekend.
Speaker 2: Ten carries, one hundred and twenty nine yards, two touchdowns,
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that. Pick a lot. He's averaging
Speaker 2: five and a half yards per carry this year. That's
Speaker 2: a great one. Man.
Speaker 3: That was really positive on my pick.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to be on this year up to
Speaker 1: six now yeah to sex, Yes, all right, if you
Speaker 1: come back again, we'll keep rising up. So again, you
Speaker 1: like Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards,
Speaker 1: I will take Darius Guice over seventy five rushing yards.
Speaker 3: Well, that is going to do it for today's show.
Speaker 3: Thanks for coming back on the show. Ian. Remind everybody
Speaker 3: where they can find more of you in your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. The main place is to follow me on
Speaker 2: Twitter at Ian mac O s I A I N
Speaker 2: m Acos. Also I'm on Guys and Bets every day.
Speaker 2: That's the Odd Shark Live Show. We go live Monday
Speaker 2: to Friday at twelve pm Eastern on YouTube. So check
Speaker 2: out our YouTube channel, it's just odd Shark awesome.
Speaker 1: Well, I want to remind everyone about our sponsor bet MGM,
Speaker 1: where you can win one hundred dollars on a one
Speaker 1: dollar money line bet for the Patriots to be the
Speaker 1: Chiefs if Tom Brady completes.
Speaker 3: Even a single pass in the game.
Speaker 1: If you sign up for the bet MGM Sports app
Speaker 1: using our promo code Harris and don't forget to leave
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Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends,
Speaker 1: we will be back breaking down the early lines for
Speaker 1: week fifteen on Monday