WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 14 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 33) 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:12.960 Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.320 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:18.640 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris ad. 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.120 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.680 and our least favorite bets for the week fourteen NFL 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.520 Slate With me to talk about it. All is Ian McMillan, 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:30.160 a writer for oddshark dot com and my eighth favorite 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.199 guest that we've ever had. You can find them on 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:36.280 Twitter at Ian macOS I'm gonna spell that for you 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:40.519 as I always do. That's at IAI n mac m 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:45.080 a CEOs Ian. Thank you for coming back on how 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:45.800 you doing today? 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.280 I'm doing fantastic. Did you say I'm your eighth favorite guest? 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:53.080 That's correct? I have a leader board? Yeah, oh yeah, man, 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:54.240 come on, I have a leader board. 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:54.440 Now. 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:56.880 Look, I've got to be honest. The difference between you 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.600 and number six not that much. So you can really 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.600 push head right now if you kind of bring your all. 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:03.600 Are you ready to do that? 0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:05.280 I am definitely ready to do that. 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:06.880 All right, Well, you guys know how this goes by. 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:08.720 Now, Ian and I are going to give our three 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:10.840 best bets for this weekend's games. We're gonna give you 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.080 one bet to avoid, and then we're gonna list our 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.360 favorite prop of the week. But first we need to 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.679 review last week. And I realize now that I have 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:21.360 never named this segment where I review what the guests 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:23.800 and I did last week. So Ian I figure, you know, 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.200 we're bearing all from last week. We're not hiding anything. 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:29.920 How does calling this one the full Monty sound to you? 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:30.440 Is that cool? 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:31.640 Yeah? Sounds pretty good to me. 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:34.760 Wonderful, So great, everyone listening, get ready, Dan Harris is 0:01:34.800 --> 0:01:37.679 about to go full Monty, and I'll warn you it's 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.000 not pretty. I hit on my best bet, which was 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:42.600 the Rams laying three to the Cardinals, but I missed 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.160 on both the Cowboys Bills over forty seven and the 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.040 Jets Bangals over forty one and a half, as well 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.680 as my top prop of DJ Chark over one hundred 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:53.120 receiving yards. And our guest Steve Merrill hit on his 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.160 top pick, the Packers laying six and a half to 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.360 the Giants, but he missed on the forty nine Ers 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.600 Ravens over forty seven, the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs, 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.600 and Aaron Rodgers over two hundred and fifty passing yards. 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.600 So it is time to bounce back and Ian, if 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:07.920 you want to rise in the rankings, I suggest you 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:10.720 be accurate today. You're gonna get u started here with 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:13.000 pick six. We're each gonna give three of our best bets. 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:13.680 Start us off. 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.320 Okay, yeah, my first one is I would say my 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.800 number one favorite bet for this weekend. It's the forty 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:22.800 nine Ers plus two and a half over the Saints. 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.240 You know a lot of people don't They always talk 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:27.799 about the Patriots and their impressive defense, but the forty 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:29.960 nine ers are actually the team they give up the 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:33.480 fewest yards per game, and I actually think the Saints 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:36.079 are a little bit overrated. I think if any team 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.480 the NFC that's in the playoffs right now is what 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:41.799 some people would say a fraud, I would say it's 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.720 the Saints just because their schedule has been so easy 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:47.360 since earlier in the season. Really, their last tough game 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:51.080 was against the Cowboys, but Week four, I believe that 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.280 was so. I think the forty nine ers are getting 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:57.760 undervalued almost every single week. I don't know when people 0:02:57.800 --> 0:02:59.320 are gonna catch on that this is one of the 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:02.280 best teams in so getting them as an underdog two 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.040 and a half points, I'll take that all day. So 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:05.400 forty nine ers plus and a. 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:07.480 Half, So do you fear it all? I mean, look, 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:09.000 this is a big game for both teams. The forty 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:10.760 nine Ers, I believe, are now the fifth seed. The 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.040 Seahawks have passed them, so they're desperate for a win. 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.200 But the Saints here, I mean, they've got to take 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.400 this win to be able to try to clinch home field. 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.200 That's going to be a big thing for them in 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.720 the playoffs. And Drew Brees at home? Are you not 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:25.160 scared at all about you know, look, he's usually pretty 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:26.760 good in big games at home. 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:28.560 That place is going to be crazy. 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.120 You think the forty nine Ers, who are coming off 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.880 a game, by the way, a tough game there where 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:35.080 they you know, really went toe to toe with the Ravens, 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:38.080 a lot of hard hitting on a shorter week than 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:40.280 the Saints, who are coming off a Thanksgiving game. They've 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.560 had extra time. You still think in this game, even 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.400 though again the betters are with you because the spread 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.240 when it opened when I saw it was three, so 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:49.680 it's down to two and a half, you still confident 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:51.560 there that the forty nine ers can kind of overcome 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.440 all those variables, I am man. 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.280 I mean you you mentioned the Saints at home. The 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:58.840 Saints are actually two and seven against the spread in 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:01.920 their last nine games as a home favorite, so I 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:05.880 think their home field advantage might be a little bit overvalued. Also, 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:07.720 the forty nine Ers four to zero against his spread 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:10.080 in the last four games as a road underdog. So 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:13.240 both those kind of trends favor my pick. So of course, 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:14.920 I mean I'm a little bit worried, Yeah, of course, 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.640 but no, it's not enough to not enough to deter 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:19.760 me from taking the forty nine ers out of curiosity. 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:22.200 How do you see the game unfolding? You think they're 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.159 gonna go toe to toe scoring a ton of points. 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.479 Both teams are pretty decent defensively. You think it's gonna 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.520 be sort of a closer battle like that, or just 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.279 generally speaking, how do you see it? 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:32.640 I think it's gonna be a game people are going 0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:35.200 to really start to question Drew Drew Brees. I think 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.760 he's just I don't know if he has the zip 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:39.560 in his arm that he quite that he used to have. 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.040 So I see the forty nine Ers winning actually by 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:43.279 double digits. 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:44.839 All right, well, one of the reasons I asked you 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:47.159 that was not just to get your outstanding analysis, and 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:48.520 it was a great statu by the way, about the 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.040 Saints at home with the spread, but really because it's 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.120 going to lead into my pick, which I was gonna 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.520 give a little later, but it dovetails perfectly with yours, 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.960 which is this same game the forty nine Ers and 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:00.479 the Saints under forty four and a half. Now you've 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:03.040 laid out a lot of the reasons, and really, when 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:04.800 you're looking at the over under in this game, it's 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:08.599 not rocket science. You've got two elite teams, two very 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.120 good defenses. As I mentioned, the forty nine Ers are 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.599 coming off that tough, grinded out game against the Ravens. 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:16.720 They're excellent with the run, but that's kind of where 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.320 the Saints specialize. That's the strength of their defense against 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.760 the run. They're coming on the road again for the 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.600 second straight week, in this crazy environment where you've got 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:26.159 you know the fans are going to be nuts, and 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:28.440 so you look at the forty nine Ers. When they 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.400 put up a lot of points, they usually do it 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.240 by getting a lot of turnovers. They're third in the 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:34.920 league with twenty nine turnovers. But in games that they 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.280 don't go crazy in terms of scoring, it's usually when 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:39.920 they're unable to force a ton of turnovers, and I 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.120 think that's what's going to happen here. The Saints have 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:44.760 turned it over just seven times on the season, that's 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:46.520 the fewest in the league. And when you look at 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:48.400 the other side of the ball, you mentioned the deal 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.840 with Drew Brees, the offense just is not dynamic at 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:53.839 the moment. I'm not sure whether or not Breeze is 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.520 just feeling his age. He's obviously getting up there. Maybe 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:00.120 he hasn't quite fully recovered from that thumb injury. We 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:02.839 obviously had the surgery on the ligaments, so maybe that's it. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:04.680 But he certainly does not look any work close to 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:06.960 even the Breeze we saw two years ago. At this point, 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.680 Alvin Kamara has not really gotten it going since coming 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:11.719 back from his injuries. So they're really not at the 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:13.640 point where they're gonna be able to put up a 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:15.640 ton of points, especially, as you mentioned, on a great 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.080 defense like the forty nine ers. So you know, forty 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.760 four and a half, that's not a crazy number, it's 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:24.240 not really all that high, but it's certainly not overly low, 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:29.120 So I think for me, I'm not sure I'm confident 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:30.960 on either side in terms of the spread. You make 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:32.960 a lot of good points, but for me, I see 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.599 the total kind of here as coming in under forty 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:36.360 four and a half. 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:38.960 Yeah, I to be honest, I like that pick a 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:41.000 lot too. On the total, I would le lean the 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.240 under as well. For forty nine. Ers are have the 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.040 second most rushing attempts per game as well, So anytime 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:48.280 you have a team that likes to run the ball 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:50.159 a lot, that's going to keep the clock moving, and 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:52.960 the more the clock moves, that helps the under. So yeah, 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:54.279 I like the under there as well. Yeah. 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:55.880 I think both teams are going to try to control 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:57.960 this game. I don't think anybody's gonna be like, let's, 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:00.800 you know, push it down the field and score points. 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.680 So I feel pretty good about that one. Let's move 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:03.440 on to your second pick. 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:06.480 What do you have? So for my second pick, I'm 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.479 gonna go are you oh right? Okay, yeah, I'm gonna 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:13.080 go Jet or sorry, Dolphins plus five versus the Jets. 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:14.880 I was gonna say, are you are you a Jets fan? 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:15.640 I have a Jets? 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:16.320 All right? 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:17.920 Hold on, hold on, I just want to make it clear. 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.320 You have now moved up to seventh in the overall 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:23.160 guest right just by remembering that, So you're on ahead. 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.800 But I might drop back down in the ranking because 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.440 I'm gonna betting against the Jets. I'm taking the Dolphins 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.480 plus five in this game. To be honest, I think 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:35.400 the Jets. I think they had that momentum after Sam 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:37.800 Darnold said, hey, if we run the table, we're going 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:39.960 to uh we have a chance of the playoffs, and 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.000 then they won a few games back to back and 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:44.960 then losing last week and just getting absolutely crushed in 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:48.640 that game. That's that's a momentum killer. That's a morale killer. 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.200 And then on the other side of the thing, on 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:53.480 the other side of the ball, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.960 the Dolphins, Ryan Fitzpatrick going against his old team, and 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:58.640 we saw a little bit of fitzmagic. U O to 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:02.880 Fitzpatrick last week. He's you know, it's it's classic him. 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.640 He's gonna throw the ball. He can throw for two, three, 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:09.680 four touchdowns in a game. So I wouldn't be surprised 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:11.280 if the Jets actually do win this game. But I 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:13.760 think five. I think five is too many points, and 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:15.440 the Dolphins are just kind of they're at the point 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:17.640 of the season now they know that they suck. They know, 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.960 you know, obviously they're eliminated, eliminated from the playoffs, but 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:23.480 they're kind of because they've accepted that fact. It looks 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:25.240 like they're actually like playing with a little bit of fun. 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:27.920 You saw that trick play, that wild trick play that 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:30.160 they had last week to score the touchdown. It's like 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.040 they're kind of just having fun out there. And if 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:35.040 you're gonna have fun, you're gonna play loose, and that's 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.600 when you can kind of win games, especially against teams 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:40.599 that might be a little bit more demoralized after that 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.679 tough loss last week. So uh yeah, I like the 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.560 Dolphins and I and another thing to keep in mind 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.280 with the Dolphins as well, against the spread this year, 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.120 they aren't too bad. They're six and two, I believe 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:55.200 it is again in the last eight games as an underdog, 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:56.880 which is the last eight games, I don't think they've 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:58.640 been a favorite. So I think the Dolphins are a 0:08:58.640 --> 0:08:59.560 little undervalued here. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.480 Yeah, I mean, I think all of that is fair, 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:05.600 and especially with Jamal Adams probably going to miss the game, 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.240 that's certainly changes thing with the Jets. But I'll be honest, 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.679 I you know, this is a game where you know, 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:12.520 when I'm looking at the breakdown, it kind of looks 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:14.160 like there's a little bit of a difference between the 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.240 public side and the sharp side. Sharp side seems to 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:17.719 be a little bit on the Jets, and you get 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.400 it because sort of classic is you know, by low 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:23.000 Sell high a little bit. Right, the Jets are in 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.400 the perfect spot where you'd be like, Okay, they had 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.480 put up thirty four points in three straight games. They 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.640 lay a complete egg against the Bengals. They're not as 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:31.800 bad as that, but the public's going to look at that. Meanwhile, 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:34.360 the Dolphins come off that awesome win against the Eagles, 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.400 whereas you mentioned it, the crazy trick play that they 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.240 ran right near the goal line. So it is a 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:40.160 spot and the spread has moved, you know, look ahead 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.160 might have been seven. I think it's down to five. 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.240 So you know, certainly it's something where when I look 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.800 at it, generally, the factors generally you kind of just 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.320 look at the basic ones. They would favor the Dolphins. Right, 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.440 They're coming off the big win, they're playing loose, they're 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:56.080 playing fun. You know, they don't fits magic. It's certainly 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.240 you know, on the upswing right now he's got he 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:00.480 goes through these periods where he's dominant with the Jets. 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:02.160 You could just see them totally being. 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.360 Like, all right, man, well that was it. Jamal Adams 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.800 went down, Le'Veon bells, touches are trending down. Sam Darnold 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:11.040 is banged up. But I honestly, if I'm forced to 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.199 bet this, this just kind of strikes me as the 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:15.920 last hurrah for the Jets. They've got tough games coming up, 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.480 They've got the Ravens coming up. This might be their 0:10:18.559 --> 0:10:21.199 last chance here for a win. And I kind of 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:23.240 feel like they're gonna come out and they're gonna put 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:25.600 a herding on the Dolphins because I think the public 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:27.640 side is going to be so with the Dolphins. So 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:30.959 I get your side of it. I can't really point 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.520 to any specific, you know, metrics or anything like that, 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.960 or even really a narrative that disagrees with where you're going. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:39.320 But for me, when I look at it, I think 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:41.480 this is one where I'm probably going to be taking 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.679 the Jets. And you know, I wasn't as sure when 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:46.400 it was six or six and a half even, I mean, 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:48.520 it's a dead number once you're down that low regardless. 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.360 But I think at five, I think I leaned towards 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.839 the Jets. But you know again I'm not I'm not, 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:54.640 you know, going after you too hard on that one, 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.840 because I think you're probably gonna I think the majority 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:58.400 of experts on our site are going to go with it, 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:00.400 But for me, I think I'm gonna only with the 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:00.880 Jets there. 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:03.360 Getting five, Yeah, no, that's fair. And also, I mean 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.360 it is a divisional game, so divisional games, anything can happen. 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:08.520 I mean, both teams know each other so well, so 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:10.520 that's also why I kind of I like to have 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:12.080 the points and divisional matchups. 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:12.640 Yeah. 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:14.760 Absolutely, By the way I said getting five, of course 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.800 I'm in giving five. But yeah, it's gonna be an 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.000 interesting one. But again, this strikes me as sort of like, 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.000 all right, the last hurrah. You know, I wouldn't be 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.559 surprised that Le'Veon Bellvin you know, gets shut down earlier 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:26.199 or anything like that. This is kind of their last 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.360 time they lost against the Dolphins. They probably want a 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.200 little bit of a revenge there, so I think they're 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:31.319 gonna come out firing. 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:32.319 So we'll see about that. 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:32.560 Now. 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:34.080 My next game is one. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:37.199 Where I kind of am sort of doing the opposite 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.280 of what I just said, Like the classic Bilo cell Hi. 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:42.839 I'm not doing that with this game, unfortunately, and that 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.720 is the Titans laying three to the Raiders. Now, when 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:47.080 I first looked at this, it was down to two 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:48.559 and a half. That's where I got it on the 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:52.599 betting pros on when I make my picks, because you 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:54.600 can get it in whenever you pick what the odds are. 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:55.839 So I took them at two and a half. It's 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:57.959 back up to three. I look at this line, it 0:11:58.120 --> 0:11:58.560 just it. 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:03.079 Feels to me like it should be significantly different. And 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.520 that's just not how everybody is looking at it. The 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:10.000 consensus are pretty split down the middle at what this 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.439 game should be. The sharp money looks like it's coming 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:14.840 in on the Raiders. So I have a question for you, Ian. 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.040 Are the Jets who we just talked about, are they 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:21.400 a good team? Are they a good football team? You 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:23.319 can be hon it, don't don't don't hide it. You 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:25.079 can be honest with me. Are the Jets a good 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:25.680 football team? 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.720 I would say they're the definition of average. 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:29.840 All right. 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:32.240 I would say they're below They're below average. Man, But 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:35.320 you're killing my narrative. Are the Jaguars a good football team? 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:35.880 No? 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.080 Are the Falcons a good football team? 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.360 Oh? I'm a Falcons fan, so I'm gonna say, of 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:40.920 course no. 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:45.319 But no, I'll say all three of those teams have 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:49.400 a better point differential than the Raiders this season. So again, 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:51.439 this is the bylows cell high part. 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:52.240 Right, the Raiders. 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:54.559 You know, I've gotten beaten up pretty good by the 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.600 Jets and the Chiefs. Both of them were in colder 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.440 weather where Derek Carr usually struggles. 0:12:58.480 --> 0:12:59.160 They're coming home. 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.319 They've had this rutal travel schedule all season, so you're 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:04.160 kind of like, Okay, this is a spot where you know, 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.520 maybe now you can buylow on them. The Titans, meanwhile, 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.840 they're on the role. They've won a bunch of games, 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.120 but a lot of them kind of on fluky you 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:13.400 know plays here. I mean, the easily could have lost 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:14.920 to the Bucks, they could have lost to the Chiefs, 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.160 they could have lost to the Colts. But I really 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:19.720 don't see this as a game that the Raiders are 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:21.800 gonna win. I mean I could see it, I guess 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.640 getting to a push if everything breaks right, But overall, 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:26.720 I'm not concerned. They have to be able to run 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.240 the ball. The Raiders with Josh Jacobs, that is the 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:31.559 bottom line. That is how their offense has to function. 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.679 And right now, Jacobs is playing through a fractured right shoulder. 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:38.360 According to him, I mean, you know that's great. He's 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.720 missed practice for most of the week. And the Titans 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:42.280 are one of the best teams against the run. They 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.920 allowed just four yards per carry, seventh best in the NFL. 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.880 The Raiders have lost Hunter renferral Tyrell Williams is a 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.320 shell of himself as he battles planter fasciitis. The Titans 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:53.719 defense is just strong. They allowed just nineteen and a 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:55.760 half points per game. That's eighth best in the NFL. 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:58.559 So I don't really feel like this is a bi 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.480 low opportunity for the and their offense. And meanwhile, Ryan 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:05.640 Tannehill is playing great football. I mean this is not 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.000 just where he's like, wow, look at them, they're winning, 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.520 because it's not Marcus Mariotta. No, affirmatively, he is playing 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:15.040 excellent football right now. He's incredibly accurate, he's decisive, he's 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.800 using his legs. The team is averaging twenty nine point 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.360 seven points per game with Tannehill under center. 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:21.520 It is late in the season. 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.400 Nobody wants to get in Derrick Henry's way when he's running, 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.080 which leads to a ton of red zone efficiency, especially 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:29.720 now that Tannehill has taken over and they're moving the 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.040 ball well. The Raiders to strike me as a team 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:33.640 that look like they're on the verge of giving up. 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.760 They had this great run, they were suddenly in contention, 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:37.440 and now it just looks like it's kind of all 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:41.200 falling apart. The Titans are surging. I buy their recent performance. 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.840 So I really really like this game, and it's weird 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:47.640 to me that I'm kind of on the wrong side 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.160 of it when you look at the way the sharp 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.560 money is coming in. But I will take the Titans 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:53.480 laying three to the Raiders. 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.040 Yeah, I like that pick. I'm not going to bet 0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:00.480 on this on that game myself. The hardest thing about 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.120 betting on the NFL is there's not very many games 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:04.760 in a season, like we're at the end of the 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.320 season now and the teams have only played twelve games 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.640 with the bye week, so you just don't have a 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:13.840 big sample size. And when that happens some teams, half 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:15.920 the games they look like they're a great team. The 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.360 other half the games they look like a terrible team, 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:20.160 and you just don't have enough games to look at. 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:23.000 And both these teams, in my opinion, fall into that 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.080 category where I just don't know what I'm gonna get 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.440 from either team because I haven't seen them play enough, 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.880 and it's just been so one side or the other. 0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:34.920 The Titans beat the Chiefs one week, and then you know, 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.280 they get shut out by the Broncos another week, and 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.400 the Raiders are just like that. So I like the pick. 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:43.400 It's gonna be a stay away for me, though, just 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.120 because both those teams throw the Buccaneers in with them 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.160 as well, just teams it's impossible to bet on because 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:51.880 I have no idea what team's gonna show up. 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.560 Yeah, I can look. I can see me looking back, 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:56.680 you know, in this game on Monday, being like why 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:58.960 what was I thinking? Why was I looking at it 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.960 this way? But right now I'm totally in on the 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.400 Titans at this point. And you know, again, even though 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:06.840 they could have easily lost, you know, I don't know 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.400 half the games at Tennel started. I mean those games, 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.120 you know, in the end they did find ways to win, 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.560 and I trust their defense, and it's as much of 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.520