1 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 2 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris ad. 4 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite 5 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: and our least favorite bets for the week fourteen NFL 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: Slate With me to talk about it. All is Ian McMillan, 7 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: a writer for oddshark dot com and my eighth favorite 8 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: guest that we've ever had. You can find them on 9 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: Twitter at Ian macOS I'm gonna spell that for you 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: as I always do. That's at IAI n mac m 11 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: a CEOs Ian. Thank you for coming back on how 12 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: you doing today? 13 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic. Did you say I'm your eighth favorite guest? 14 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: That's correct? I have a leader board? Yeah, oh yeah, man, 15 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: come on, I have a leader board. 16 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: Now. 17 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: Look, I've got to be honest. The difference between you 18 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: and number six not that much. So you can really 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: push head right now if you kind of bring your all. 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: Are you ready to do that? 21 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 2: I am definitely ready to do that. 22 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 3: All right, Well, you guys know how this goes by. 23 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: Now, Ian and I are going to give our three 24 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: best bets for this weekend's games. We're gonna give you 25 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: one bet to avoid, and then we're gonna list our 26 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: favorite prop of the week. But first we need to 27 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: review last week. And I realize now that I have 28 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: never named this segment where I review what the guests 29 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: and I did last week. So Ian I figure, you know, 30 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: we're bearing all from last week. We're not hiding anything. 31 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: How does calling this one the full Monty sound to you? 32 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 3: Is that cool? 33 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? Sounds pretty good to me. 34 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: Wonderful, So great, everyone listening, get ready, Dan Harris is 35 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: about to go full Monty, and I'll warn you it's 36 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: not pretty. I hit on my best bet, which was 37 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: the Rams laying three to the Cardinals, but I missed 38 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: on both the Cowboys Bills over forty seven and the 39 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: Jets Bangals over forty one and a half, as well 40 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: as my top prop of DJ Chark over one hundred 41 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: receiving yards. And our guest Steve Merrill hit on his 42 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: top pick, the Packers laying six and a half to 43 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: the Giants, but he missed on the forty nine Ers 44 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: Ravens over forty seven, the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs, 45 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers over two hundred and fifty passing yards. 46 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: So it is time to bounce back and Ian, if 47 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: you want to rise in the rankings, I suggest you 48 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: be accurate today. You're gonna get u started here with 49 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: pick six. We're each gonna give three of our best bets. 50 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: Start us off. 51 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, my first one is I would say my 52 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: number one favorite bet for this weekend. It's the forty 53 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 2: nine Ers plus two and a half over the Saints. 54 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 2: You know a lot of people don't They always talk 55 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 2: about the Patriots and their impressive defense, but the forty 56 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: nine ers are actually the team they give up the 57 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: fewest yards per game, and I actually think the Saints 58 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 2: are a little bit overrated. I think if any team 59 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 2: the NFC that's in the playoffs right now is what 60 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 2: some people would say a fraud, I would say it's 61 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: the Saints just because their schedule has been so easy 62 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 2: since earlier in the season. Really, their last tough game 63 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 2: was against the Cowboys, but Week four, I believe that 64 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 2: was so. I think the forty nine ers are getting 65 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 2: undervalued almost every single week. I don't know when people 66 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 2: are gonna catch on that this is one of the 67 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 2: best teams in so getting them as an underdog two 68 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: and a half points, I'll take that all day. So 69 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: forty nine ers plus and a. 70 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: Half, So do you fear it all? I mean, look, 71 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: this is a big game for both teams. The forty 72 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: nine Ers, I believe, are now the fifth seed. The 73 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: Seahawks have passed them, so they're desperate for a win. 74 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: But the Saints here, I mean, they've got to take 75 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: this win to be able to try to clinch home field. 76 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: That's going to be a big thing for them in 77 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: the playoffs. And Drew Brees at home? Are you not 78 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: scared at all about you know, look, he's usually pretty 79 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: good in big games at home. 80 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: That place is going to be crazy. 81 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: You think the forty nine Ers, who are coming off 82 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: a game, by the way, a tough game there where 83 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: they you know, really went toe to toe with the Ravens, 84 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: a lot of hard hitting on a shorter week than 85 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: the Saints, who are coming off a Thanksgiving game. They've 86 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: had extra time. You still think in this game, even 87 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: though again the betters are with you because the spread 88 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: when it opened when I saw it was three, so 89 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: it's down to two and a half, you still confident 90 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: there that the forty nine ers can kind of overcome 91 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: all those variables, I am man. 92 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: I mean you you mentioned the Saints at home. The 93 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 2: Saints are actually two and seven against the spread in 94 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: their last nine games as a home favorite, so I 95 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: think their home field advantage might be a little bit overvalued. Also, 96 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers four to zero against his spread 97 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 2: in the last four games as a road underdog. So 98 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: both those kind of trends favor my pick. So of course, 99 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 2: I mean I'm a little bit worried, Yeah, of course, 100 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 2: but no, it's not enough to not enough to deter 101 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 2: me from taking the forty nine ers out of curiosity. 102 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: How do you see the game unfolding? You think they're 103 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: gonna go toe to toe scoring a ton of points. 104 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: Both teams are pretty decent defensively. You think it's gonna 105 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: be sort of a closer battle like that, or just 106 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: generally speaking, how do you see it? 107 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a game people are going 108 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: to really start to question Drew Drew Brees. I think 109 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: he's just I don't know if he has the zip 110 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: in his arm that he quite that he used to have. 111 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: So I see the forty nine Ers winning actually by 112 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 2: double digits. 113 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: All right, well, one of the reasons I asked you 114 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 1: that was not just to get your outstanding analysis, and 115 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: it was a great statu by the way, about the 116 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: Saints at home with the spread, but really because it's 117 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: going to lead into my pick, which I was gonna 118 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: give a little later, but it dovetails perfectly with yours, 119 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: which is this same game the forty nine Ers and 120 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: the Saints under forty four and a half. Now you've 121 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: laid out a lot of the reasons, and really, when 122 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: you're looking at the over under in this game, it's 123 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: not rocket science. You've got two elite teams, two very 124 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: good defenses. As I mentioned, the forty nine Ers are 125 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 1: coming off that tough, grinded out game against the Ravens. 126 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: They're excellent with the run, but that's kind of where 127 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: the Saints specialize. That's the strength of their defense against 128 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: the run. They're coming on the road again for the 129 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: second straight week, in this crazy environment where you've got 130 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: you know the fans are going to be nuts, and 131 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: so you look at the forty nine Ers. When they 132 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: put up a lot of points, they usually do it 133 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: by getting a lot of turnovers. They're third in the 134 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: league with twenty nine turnovers. But in games that they 135 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 1: don't go crazy in terms of scoring, it's usually when 136 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: they're unable to force a ton of turnovers, and I 137 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: think that's what's going to happen here. The Saints have 138 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: turned it over just seven times on the season, that's 139 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: the fewest in the league. And when you look at 140 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, you mentioned the deal 141 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: with Drew Brees, the offense just is not dynamic at 142 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: the moment. I'm not sure whether or not Breeze is 143 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: just feeling his age. He's obviously getting up there. Maybe 144 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: he hasn't quite fully recovered from that thumb injury. We 145 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 1: obviously had the surgery on the ligaments, so maybe that's it. 146 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: But he certainly does not look any work close to 147 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: even the Breeze we saw two years ago. At this point, 148 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara has not really gotten it going since coming 149 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: back from his injuries. So they're really not at the 150 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: point where they're gonna be able to put up a 151 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: ton of points, especially, as you mentioned, on a great 152 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: defense like the forty nine ers. So you know, forty 153 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: four and a half, that's not a crazy number, it's 154 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: not really all that high, but it's certainly not overly low, 155 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: So I think for me, I'm not sure I'm confident 156 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: on either side in terms of the spread. You make 157 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: a lot of good points, but for me, I see 158 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: the total kind of here as coming in under forty 159 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: four and a half. 160 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I to be honest, I like that pick a 161 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 2: lot too. On the total, I would le lean the 162 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: under as well. For forty nine. Ers are have the 163 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 2: second most rushing attempts per game as well, So anytime 164 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 2: you have a team that likes to run the ball 165 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 2: a lot, that's going to keep the clock moving, and 166 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 2: the more the clock moves, that helps the under. So yeah, 167 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 2: I like the under there as well. Yeah. 168 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: I think both teams are going to try to control 169 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: this game. I don't think anybody's gonna be like, let's, 170 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: you know, push it down the field and score points. 171 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 3: So I feel pretty good about that one. Let's move 172 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 3: on to your second pick. 173 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 2: What do you have? So for my second pick, I'm 174 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 2: gonna go are you oh right? Okay, yeah, I'm gonna 175 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 2: go Jet or sorry, Dolphins plus five versus the Jets. 176 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 2: I was gonna say, are you are you a Jets fan? 177 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 3: I have a Jets? 178 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: All right? 179 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, I just want to make it clear. 180 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: You have now moved up to seventh in the overall 181 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: guest right just by remembering that, So you're on ahead. 182 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: But I might drop back down in the ranking because 183 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: I'm gonna betting against the Jets. I'm taking the Dolphins 184 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 2: plus five in this game. To be honest, I think 185 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 2: the Jets. I think they had that momentum after Sam 186 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: Darnold said, hey, if we run the table, we're going 187 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 2: to uh we have a chance of the playoffs, and 188 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: then they won a few games back to back and 189 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 2: then losing last week and just getting absolutely crushed in 190 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 2: that game. That's that's a momentum killer. That's a morale killer. 191 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: And then on the other side of the thing, on 192 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and 193 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 2: the Dolphins, Ryan Fitzpatrick going against his old team, and 194 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: we saw a little bit of fitzmagic. U O to 195 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick last week. He's you know, it's it's classic him. 196 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: He's gonna throw the ball. He can throw for two, three, 197 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 2: four touchdowns in a game. So I wouldn't be surprised 198 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 2: if the Jets actually do win this game. But I 199 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: think five. I think five is too many points, and 200 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: the Dolphins are just kind of they're at the point 201 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: of the season now they know that they suck. They know, 202 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: you know, obviously they're eliminated, eliminated from the playoffs, but 203 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: they're kind of because they've accepted that fact. It looks 204 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: like they're actually like playing with a little bit of fun. 205 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 2: You saw that trick play, that wild trick play that 206 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 2: they had last week to score the touchdown. It's like 207 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 2: they're kind of just having fun out there. And if 208 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 2: you're gonna have fun, you're gonna play loose, and that's 209 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 2: when you can kind of win games, especially against teams 210 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,599 Speaker 2: that might be a little bit more demoralized after that 211 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 2: tough loss last week. So uh yeah, I like the 212 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 2: Dolphins and I and another thing to keep in mind 213 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 2: with the Dolphins as well, against the spread this year, 214 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: they aren't too bad. They're six and two, I believe 215 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 2: it is again in the last eight games as an underdog, 216 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 2: which is the last eight games, I don't think they've 217 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 2: been a favorite. So I think the Dolphins are a 218 00:08:58,640 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 2: little undervalued here. 219 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think all of that is fair, 220 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: and especially with Jamal Adams probably going to miss the game, 221 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: that's certainly changes thing with the Jets. But I'll be honest, 222 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 1: I you know, this is a game where you know, 223 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: when I'm looking at the breakdown, it kind of looks 224 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: like there's a little bit of a difference between the 225 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: public side and the sharp side. Sharp side seems to 226 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:17,719 Speaker 1: be a little bit on the Jets, and you get 227 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: it because sort of classic is you know, by low 228 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: Sell high a little bit. Right, the Jets are in 229 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: the perfect spot where you'd be like, Okay, they had 230 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: put up thirty four points in three straight games. They 231 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: lay a complete egg against the Bengals. They're not as 232 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: bad as that, but the public's going to look at that. Meanwhile, 233 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: the Dolphins come off that awesome win against the Eagles, 234 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: whereas you mentioned it, the crazy trick play that they 235 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: ran right near the goal line. So it is a 236 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: spot and the spread has moved, you know, look ahead 237 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: might have been seven. I think it's down to five. 238 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: So you know, certainly it's something where when I look 239 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: at it, generally, the factors generally you kind of just 240 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: look at the basic ones. They would favor the Dolphins. Right, 241 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: They're coming off the big win, they're playing loose, they're 242 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: playing fun. You know, they don't fits magic. It's certainly 243 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: you know, on the upswing right now he's got he 244 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: goes through these periods where he's dominant with the Jets. 245 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 3: You could just see them totally being. 246 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: Like, all right, man, well that was it. Jamal Adams 247 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: went down, Le'Veon bells, touches are trending down. Sam Darnold 248 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: is banged up. But I honestly, if I'm forced to 249 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: bet this, this just kind of strikes me as the 250 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: last hurrah for the Jets. They've got tough games coming up, 251 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: They've got the Ravens coming up. This might be their 252 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: last chance here for a win. And I kind of 253 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: feel like they're gonna come out and they're gonna put 254 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: a herding on the Dolphins because I think the public 255 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: side is going to be so with the Dolphins. So 256 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: I get your side of it. I can't really point 257 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: to any specific, you know, metrics or anything like that, 258 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: or even really a narrative that disagrees with where you're going. 259 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: But for me, when I look at it, I think 260 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: this is one where I'm probably going to be taking 261 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 1: the Jets. And you know, I wasn't as sure when 262 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: it was six or six and a half even, I mean, 263 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: it's a dead number once you're down that low regardless. 264 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: But I think at five, I think I leaned towards 265 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 1: the Jets. But you know again I'm not I'm not, 266 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: you know, going after you too hard on that one, 267 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: because I think you're probably gonna I think the majority 268 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: of experts on our site are going to go with it, 269 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: But for me, I think I'm gonna only with the 270 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: Jets there. 271 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 2: Getting five, Yeah, no, that's fair. And also, I mean 272 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 2: it is a divisional game, so divisional games, anything can happen. 273 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 2: I mean, both teams know each other so well, so 274 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: that's also why I kind of I like to have 275 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 2: the points and divisional matchups. 276 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 3: Yeah. 277 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: Absolutely, By the way I said getting five, of course 278 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: I'm in giving five. But yeah, it's gonna be an 279 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: interesting one. But again, this strikes me as sort of like, 280 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: all right, the last hurrah. You know, I wouldn't be 281 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 1: surprised that Le'Veon Bellvin you know, gets shut down earlier 282 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: or anything like that. This is kind of their last 283 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: time they lost against the Dolphins. They probably want a 284 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: little bit of a revenge there, so I think they're 285 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: gonna come out firing. 286 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 3: So we'll see about that. 287 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 2: Now. 288 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 3: My next game is one. 289 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 1: Where I kind of am sort of doing the opposite 290 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: of what I just said, Like the classic Bilo cell Hi. 291 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: I'm not doing that with this game, unfortunately, and that 292 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: is the Titans laying three to the Raiders. Now, when 293 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: I first looked at this, it was down to two 294 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:48,559 Speaker 1: and a half. That's where I got it on the 295 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,599 Speaker 1: betting pros on when I make my picks, because you 296 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: can get it in whenever you pick what the odds are. 297 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 3: So I took them at two and a half. It's 298 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 3: back up to three. I look at this line, it 299 00:11:58,120 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 3: just it. 300 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 1: Feels to me like it should be significantly different. And 301 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: that's just not how everybody is looking at it. The 302 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: consensus are pretty split down the middle at what this 303 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 1: game should be. The sharp money looks like it's coming 304 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: in on the Raiders. So I have a question for you, Ian. 305 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: Are the Jets who we just talked about, are they 306 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: a good team? Are they a good football team? You 307 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 1: can be hon it, don't don't don't hide it. You 308 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 1: can be honest with me. Are the Jets a good 309 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 1: football team? 310 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 2: I would say they're the definition of average. 311 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 3: All right. 312 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: I would say they're below They're below average. Man, But 313 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: you're killing my narrative. Are the Jaguars a good football team? 314 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 2: No? 315 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 3: Are the Falcons a good football team? 316 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 2: Oh? I'm a Falcons fan, so I'm gonna say, of 317 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 2: course no. 318 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 1: But no, I'll say all three of those teams have 319 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: a better point differential than the Raiders this season. So again, 320 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: this is the bylows cell high part. 321 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 3: Right, the Raiders. 322 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 1: You know, I've gotten beaten up pretty good by the 323 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: Jets and the Chiefs. Both of them were in colder 324 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: weather where Derek Carr usually struggles. 325 00:12:58,480 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 3: They're coming home. 326 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,319 Speaker 1: They've had this rutal travel schedule all season, so you're 327 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: kind of like, Okay, this is a spot where you know, 328 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: maybe now you can buylow on them. The Titans, meanwhile, 329 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: they're on the role. They've won a bunch of games, 330 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: but a lot of them kind of on fluky you 331 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: know plays here. I mean, the easily could have lost 332 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: to the Bucks, they could have lost to the Chiefs, 333 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: they could have lost to the Colts. But I really 334 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: don't see this as a game that the Raiders are 335 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: gonna win. I mean I could see it, I guess 336 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: getting to a push if everything breaks right, But overall, 337 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: I'm not concerned. They have to be able to run 338 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: the ball. The Raiders with Josh Jacobs, that is the 339 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 1: bottom line. That is how their offense has to function. 340 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: And right now, Jacobs is playing through a fractured right shoulder. 341 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: According to him, I mean, you know that's great. He's 342 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: missed practice for most of the week. And the Titans 343 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: are one of the best teams against the run. They 344 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: allowed just four yards per carry, seventh best in the NFL. 345 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: The Raiders have lost Hunter renferral Tyrell Williams is a 346 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: shell of himself as he battles planter fasciitis. The Titans 347 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,719 Speaker 1: defense is just strong. They allowed just nineteen and a 348 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: half points per game. That's eighth best in the NFL. 349 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: So I don't really feel like this is a bi 350 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 1: low opportunity for the and their offense. And meanwhile, Ryan 351 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: Tannehill is playing great football. I mean this is not 352 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: just where he's like, wow, look at them, they're winning, 353 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: because it's not Marcus Mariotta. No, affirmatively, he is playing 354 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: excellent football right now. He's incredibly accurate, he's decisive, he's 355 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: using his legs. The team is averaging twenty nine point 356 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 1: seven points per game with Tannehill under center. 357 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 3: It is late in the season. 358 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: Nobody wants to get in Derrick Henry's way when he's running, 359 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: which leads to a ton of red zone efficiency, especially 360 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: now that Tannehill has taken over and they're moving the 361 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: ball well. The Raiders to strike me as a team 362 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: that look like they're on the verge of giving up. 363 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: They had this great run, they were suddenly in contention, 364 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: and now it just looks like it's kind of all 365 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: falling apart. The Titans are surging. I buy their recent performance. 366 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: So I really really like this game, and it's weird 367 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: to me that I'm kind of on the wrong side 368 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: of it when you look at the way the sharp 369 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: money is coming in. But I will take the Titans 370 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: laying three to the Raiders. 371 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that pick. I'm not going to bet 372 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: on this on that game myself. The hardest thing about 373 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 2: betting on the NFL is there's not very many games 374 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 2: in a season, like we're at the end of the 375 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: season now and the teams have only played twelve games 376 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 2: with the bye week, so you just don't have a 377 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 2: big sample size. And when that happens some teams, half 378 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: the games they look like they're a great team. The 379 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 2: other half the games they look like a terrible team, 380 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 2: and you just don't have enough games to look at. 381 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: And both these teams, in my opinion, fall into that 382 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: category where I just don't know what I'm gonna get 383 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 2: from either team because I haven't seen them play enough, 384 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 2: and it's just been so one side or the other. 385 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 2: The Titans beat the Chiefs one week, and then you know, 386 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 2: they get shut out by the Broncos another week, and 387 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 2: the Raiders are just like that. So I like the pick. 388 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 2: It's gonna be a stay away for me, though, just 389 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 2: because both those teams throw the Buccaneers in with them 390 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: as well, just teams it's impossible to bet on because 391 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 2: I have no idea what team's gonna show up. 392 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can look. I can see me looking back, 393 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: you know, in this game on Monday, being like why 394 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: what was I thinking? Why was I looking at it 395 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: this way? But right now I'm totally in on the 396 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 1: Titans at this point. And you know, again, even though 397 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: they could have easily lost, you know, I don't know 398 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: half the games at Tennel started. I mean those games, 399 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: you know, in the end they did find ways to win, 400 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: and I trust their defense, and it's as much of 401 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: a sell. I'm going to continue to sell the Raiders 402 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: right now with the way they're looking lately, as I 403 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: am buying the Titans. But let's move on here to 404 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: your third pick. 405 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 2: What do you have? Yes, my third pick here, So 406 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: I took two underdogs in my first two picks. I'm 407 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 2: going to take a favorite here, and this kind of 408 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 2: follows the same theme. Now I'm going against what I 409 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: kind of did with my last pick, where I'm now 410 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 2: going to buy low on a team. So I'm gonna 411 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 2: take the Patriots minus three against the Chiefs. And I mean, 412 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 2: we see this year in a year out of at 413 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 2: some point in every single season, the Patriots put a 414 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: couple of average, not so great games kind of in 415 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 2: a string, and people start questioning, oh, it's Tom Brady 416 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 2: washed up? Are the Patriots dynasty? Is their dynasty finally over? 417 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 2: And you're starting to hear whispers of it after their 418 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: loss last week. So I think this is a good 419 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 2: time to buy the Patriots. I mean, they're still a favorite, 420 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 2: but it's three points. As long as it stays at 421 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 2: that three point mark, then I'm happy. With it. And 422 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 2: don't forget the Patriots are at home too, and they're 423 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,919 Speaker 2: I mean, they're unreal at home. They've won twenty one 424 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 2: straight games at home. They're sixteen and five against the 425 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 2: spread in those games. They still have the arguably the 426 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 2: best defense in the league. You could argue maybe the 427 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: forty nine ers now Patriots defense and have a great 428 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 2: week last week, but their defense is fantastic. Tom Brady, 429 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: yeah he might have slowed down a bit, but you 430 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: can't discount Tom Brady. And the running game is great. 431 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 2: So and then the Chiefs for the other team, the Chiefs, 432 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 2: their defense has not looked good. I don't think they're 433 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 2: the chief the same Chiefs that they had last year 434 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 2: after losing a couple of pieces of a couple of 435 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 2: players on defense. So I think it's a great time 436 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 2: to buy the Patriots low. I'm going to take them 437 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 2: minus three. 438 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't disagree with anything that you're saying. And 439 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: they're coming off the loss by the way too right, 440 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: and then coming home. It just seems unfathomable that they 441 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: would lose this game. But I think this is gonna 442 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: be one where I'm gonna wind up staying away from it. 443 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 3: As well. And again, if I do go in on it, 444 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 3: I'm almost. 445 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: Certainly gonna go with the Patriots for all the reasons 446 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: that you're saying. But in the end, man, there are 447 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: two things that make me a little nervous. One is 448 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 1: that the defense, as good as it is, the one 449 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: bugaboo I feel like they kind of have that you see, 450 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: is that they struggle a little bit with mobile quarterbacks 451 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: because they play so much man defense. They rely on 452 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: their corners who just kind of have their back to 453 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: the quarterback right, They're just playing up on their men. 454 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: That that leaves them vulnerable a little bit to guys 455 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson, to guys like Deshaun Watson, even when 456 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: the running totals aren't there necessarily for the quarterbacks, I 457 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: think that style gives them a little bit of trouble. 458 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: You saw, you know Mahomes. He obviously had the knee injury, 459 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: but since he's been back, he hasn't been running like crazy, 460 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: but he scored a rushing touchdown last week. He had 461 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: about twenty five yards. He has that threat, So it 462 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 1: makes me a tiny bit worried there. And the other 463 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: thing is, Man, look, I'm a Jets fan as we 464 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: talked about I don't think the end is ever gonna 465 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: come for Tom Brady. And we've looked at this each 466 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: of you know, the last several years. We'd be like, oh, 467 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 1: this has got to be done, this has got to 468 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: be done. But you know, as much as it is 469 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 1: about him, and I know he's on the injury report 470 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: this week apparently with both an elbow. 471 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 3: And now a toe injury. 472 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: Who knows, but you know, he's getting hit a lot, 473 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: and the receivers other than Edelman are just kind of raw. 474 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 1: I mean, sew Is, everybody's been in and out. Door 475 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: set has been in and out, you know, the young kids, Harry, 476 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: you know, he obviously ran the wrong route the other 477 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: day and in the last game, and Brady was pretty 478 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: fired up about that. 479 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 3: It gets me a little worried about just. 480 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: Being like, well, they're the Patriots. Of course they're going 481 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: to bounce back, and we've seen this, I get it. 482 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 1: Really a little bit worried about their offense. So if 483 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go in with that set. As much as 484 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: I'm saying negatives, that's really just what's keeping me from 485 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 1: being all in here on the Patriots and saying, yes, 486 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: this is going to be one of my picks overall. 487 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 3: If I were forced to pick. 488 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: A side, I would be on your side. But I 489 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 1: just get a little nervous man watching him. I don't know, 490 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: I've been watching him obviously for twenty years. 491 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 3: This just this is as bad, I think as i've 492 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 3: seen him look, So it makes me a little bit nervous. 493 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, those are all fair points that you make for sure. 494 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 3: All Right. 495 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: For my final pick, I'm gonna continue to buy high 496 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: with the team, although to be fair, the team they're 497 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: playing should also be buying high, and that's the Ravens 498 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: laying six to the Bills. When I originally wanted this, 499 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: it was five and a half. That's not a huge 500 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: difference like the little more five and a half. I 501 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: will take it at six. The Bills extremely extremely impressive 502 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 1: this entire season. That was a huge win over the 503 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 1: Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Now they're coming home, they are on 504 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: the Patriots heels. There's a legitimate chance that after this 505 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: week they could have the same record as the Patriots. 506 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: I'm still fading them, really, rather than fading them, I'm 507 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 1: more just buying the Ravens completely and Lamar Jackson. They're 508 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: coming off that tight game in horrible weather against the Niners, 509 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: an elite team. Jackson couldn't throw the ball at all, 510 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: and they still managed to win that game by three. 511 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: The Greg Roman system and Lamar Jackson's play just creates 512 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: what essentially aunt to being an unstoppable force, and it obviously, 513 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,239 Speaker 1: you know their offense, it's almost entirely about the run. 514 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 1: Jackson has been a far better passer that we've expected, 515 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: but a lot of that is because the running game 516 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 1: opens everything up, and that's really where you can attack 517 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: the Bills defense on the run, they allow four and 518 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: a half yards per carry. They really struggle when the 519 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: runner gets past that first level, leading to bigger plays. 520 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: The Bills have a great defense, but it's primarily the pass. 521 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: And it's not as if the Ravens sort of rely 522 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: on unstoppable wide receivers or anything. It's all about their scheme. 523 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: They're going to be able to run the ball and 524 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: run it well, and I think they're going to be 525 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,199 Speaker 1: able to put up points kind of at will here 526 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 1: and I don't see the same thing for the Bills. 527 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: They've been held to twenty one points or fewer in 528 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: seven of their twelve games. 529 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 3: The Ones they went over. 530 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 1: That were two against the Dolphins, the Giants, the Redskins, 531 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: and now the Cowboys, none of which have elite defenses. 532 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: Now the Ravens defense is beatable early, but now not 533 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: at all. Brandon Williams being healthy really strength and their 534 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: run defense. They're good in their secondary. Josh Allen hasn't 535 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: thrown many interceptions, but he hasn't been in the position 536 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: of needing to come back. I think he's gonna be here. 537 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: I don't see the Bills as being able to put 538 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: up a ton of points in comeback mode. We saw 539 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson against the Ravens that they practice all 540 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 1: day against Lamar Jackson right said, they know how to 541 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: contain a running quarterback like Allan So I just see 542 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: the Ravens getting ahead here holding on. I don't think 543 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: the Bills are designed to win this type of game. 544 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 1: So you know, it's six points, it's a lot, but 545 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win by more than a touchdown. 546 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: So I'll take the Ravens laying six here to the Bills. 547 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, that game is a stay away for me, man, 548 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 2: because this is one of those games where it's like 549 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: all week you lean one side at least for me. 550 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 2: I've like I leaned Bills early, and then the more 551 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: I look at it, I leaned Ravens, and then I 552 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 2: was back on Bills. So I don't know. I agree 553 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 2: with all the points that you that you made. I 554 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 2: like the Bill. I do kind of like the Bills. 555 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 2: I mean six six and a half, they're at home. 556 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 2: If you remember the first Samos on this show, I 557 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 2: believe it was the right before the opening weekend I 558 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 2: picked the Bills, or at least I mentioned it that 559 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 2: I thought the Bills are gonna have a really good 560 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 2: year and make the playoffs. That turned out to be correct. 561 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 2: So because of that, I feel like I have like 562 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 2: a special little attachment to the Bills. It's hard for 563 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 2: me to bet against them now because of that. But yeah, 564 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 2: I don't know if to stay away from me. I 565 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 2: agree with all the points that you made, though I 566 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: don't hate the pick. 567 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: Hey man, let me make it clear, all right. I 568 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 1: had the Bills over six and a half for over 569 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: under my best pick at the over underwins coming in 570 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: and I went to school in Buffalo, so I'm basically 571 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: like married to Buffalo at this point. I'm still willing 572 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: to fain them. I get it, they're just you know, 573 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: the game against the Cowboys, that was the first one 574 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 1: where I really was like, wow, this is impressive. But 575 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: still at this point, I just can't. I can't get 576 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: behind them. I think they're gonna need a lot of 577 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: points here. I don't think they're really going to be 578 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 1: equipped to put it up, so I'm gonna lay the points. 579 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 1: A little scary, I agree, but I'm gonna lay them. 580 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: So let's just recap here what we have. You like, 581 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from 582 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 1: the Saints, the Dolphins getting five from the Jets, and 583 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: the Patriots laying three to the Chiefs. I'm going to 584 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 1: take the Saints and the forty nine ers under forty 585 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: four and a half, the Titans laying three to the Raiders, 586 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: and the Ravens now laying six. 587 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 3: To the Bills. 588 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: All right, before we get into our next segment, I 589 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, BETMGM, 590 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: and their latest pretty much guaranteed money offer. 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Regardless of whether 604 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: the PA Patriots actually beat the Chiefs one pass. 605 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 3: If Ian or I was the. 606 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,719 Speaker 1: Quarterback of the Patriots, you would still probably win one 607 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Maybe not Ian like a quasi athletic human 608 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: or something. If you sign up, you will see that 609 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: crazy boosted odds bets like this are not really all 610 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: that rare. You'll have plenty of opportunities to maximize your money, 611 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: So just download the bet MGM Sports app and sign 612 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: up using our promo code Harris. These winnings are paid 613 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: in free bets. You must be twenty one years or older, 614 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,400 Speaker 1: and although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere. 615 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: You must be in the state of New Jersey to 616 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: place a sports bet, and certain restrictions apply. Visit betmgms 617 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. 618 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: And if you've got a gambling problem, called one in 619 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: hunter gambler. All right, Ian, let's move on to it's 620 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: a trap where we list the line we are avoiding. 621 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,400 Speaker 1: Go ahead and start us off. 622 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I briefly touched on this earlier. The game 623 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 2: I'm avoiding is the Colts in the Bucks, mainly because 624 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 2: of what I touched on earlier. Justin in Jamis Winston. 625 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 2: You have no idea what you're gonna get from Jameis Winston, 626 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 2: even from drive to drive, not even just week to week. 627 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 2: One drive, he looked like an NFL MVP quarterback. The 628 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 2: next drive he looks like he shouldn't even be the 629 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 2: starting quarterback. And that's reflected he's been benched already a 630 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 2: couple times this year, and then he's come back later 631 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 2: on the game. So and then on the other side 632 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 2: of things, the Colts, I feel like we're what thirteen 633 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 2: fourteen weeks in the season, I still don't know what 634 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: to think about Jacoby Brissett. I feel like I don't. 635 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 2: I'm still back to square one where it was when 636 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 2: Andrew Luck announced his retirement. I don't know what we 637 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 2: get from him. The Colts have beat some good teams, 638 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,479 Speaker 2: but they've lost to some bad teams. The Buccaneers are 639 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 2: the same way. They've beat some good teams, so they've 640 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 2: lost to some bad teams. This game makes no sense 641 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 2: to me. And I will not touch James Winston with 642 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,400 Speaker 2: any kind of bet, and I haven't since like Week 643 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 2: five of the season, just because I don't know. You 644 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 2: can't figure Jameis Winston. 645 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: No, So I pretty much was putting whatever Bucks game 646 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 1: was going on that week in this segment for like 647 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 1: four or five straight weeks for exactly that. And look, 648 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 1: if I'm forced to pick a side here, it's gonna 649 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 1: be the Bucks, just because, you know, as good as 650 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: the Colts looked early on, as good a coach as 651 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: Frank Reich is, this team just seems like a team 652 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 1: that's right about to kind of shut down here. I mean, 653 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 1: t Y Hilton's probably out for the season. Even if 654 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 1: they get Marlon Mack back. They want to run the 655 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: ball the whole time. You cannot do that against the Bucks. 656 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: But on the other side, Yeah, you mentioned it. It's Winston. 657 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: It's all Winston. There's no way that I could feel 658 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 1: comfortable backing someone like Winston because even if you're in 659 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,200 Speaker 1: a position to cover, there is just this backbreaking pick 660 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: six or fumble waiting to happen at the end. So 661 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: you know, I've tried to stay away from using the 662 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: bucks every time here, So I'm glad that you did, 663 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: because I'm in agreement with you there. As for me, 664 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: I'm avoiding the Eagles laying nine and a half to 665 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: the Giants, so Eli Manning's coming back, and honestly, I'm 666 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: not really sure whether or not that's a positive or 667 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 1: negative for the Giants at this point, but whatever it is, 668 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 1: I certainly have no faith that their offense or their 669 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,160 Speaker 1: defense is going to be able to do anything here. 670 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 1: But there is just no way that you can back 671 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: either the Giants or the Eagles, a team that I 672 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: took last week laying ten to the Dolphins and who 673 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: got beat outright as we talked about, they have been 674 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 1: injured for much of the season, They've dealt with a 675 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 1: lot of stuff, but there's just something missing from this team. 676 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 3: I don't know what it is. But it's missing. 677 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: So if you can go out and put up that 678 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,719 Speaker 1: performance against the Dolphins after the Cowboys gave you an 679 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,360 Speaker 1: opening like that, under no circumstances can you be trusted, 680 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: let alone laying nearly double digits. And add to that 681 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,040 Speaker 1: that this is a divisional game, two teams that know 682 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 1: each other very well. It's just something where I'm gonna 683 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 1: completely avoid. So I'm not going anywhere near the Eagles 684 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the Giants. 685 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. If 686 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 2: it was a Sunday two o'clock in the afternoon game, 687 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 2: I would stay away from it too, But it's a 688 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 2: primetime game, and I think I'm legally obligated to bet 689 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 2: primetime game, so I have to bet on it. I'm 690 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 2: probably just gonna take the under and call it a day. 691 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 2: But I agree with all with all the points. To me, 692 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:00,479 Speaker 2: a tough one. 693 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 3: If you had to make a pick, which would it 694 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 3: be on a side? 695 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, Giants, I think I'd go Giants. Believe in Eli Maning. 696 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 2: He's his record I saw is exactly five hundred, so 697 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 2: he needs that one win to get over the five 698 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 2: hundred marks. 699 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: So yeah, give me the giants, and I guess you 700 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: could see him just being like, all right, let's, you know, 701 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: throw caution to the wind. Here, it's, you know, on 702 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: my last Monday Night game, Let's go crazy. But I 703 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: certainly will be sitting on the sidelines of this one 704 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: and not going anywhere near. So I'm avoiding the Eagles 705 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the giants, and you 706 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 1: are avoiding the Bucks laying three to the cults. Now, 707 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: before we get into our final segment, remember we've got 708 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 1: a signed Michael Thomas helmet giveaway contest going on. You 709 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: can get more details over at bettingpros dot com slash contest, 710 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 1: but to be entered, just leave a review for the 711 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Send a screenshot of 712 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, I 713 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: said on Monday's show that I was going to announce 714 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 1: the winner of the Odell Beckham Junior helmet giveaway on 715 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 1: this show, But I'm a big old liar. I will 716 00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: announce it on Monday's show, though, however, I promise, and 717 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: the winner will be notified and everything will be perfect. 718 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: My bad on that one. All Right, it is time 719 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: for Top prop. Will we list our top player prop 720 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 1: of the week? Ian get Us started. 721 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 2: Yes, I'm taking and I actually love this prop bet. 722 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 2: I'm taking Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five 723 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 2: rushing yards against the Bengals at plus one oh six. So, 724 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 2: first off, Nick Chubb is averaging the most rushing attempts 725 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 2: per game in the NFL right now, is averaging nineteen 726 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 2: point eight rushing yards or sorry, rushing attempts per game. 727 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 2: And then rushing yards per attempt, he's averaging four point nine. 728 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 2: So Nick Chubb not a lot of people are talking 729 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 2: about him, but he's actually quietly been one of the 730 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,959 Speaker 2: best running backs in the entire league. And then when 731 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 2: you look at the Bengals defense, they are one of 732 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 2: the worst rush actually, they are the worst rush defense 733 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 2: in the entire league, allowing one hundred and fifty seven 734 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 2: point six rush yards per game. So this seems like 735 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 2: a layup to me, It seems like the obvious bet 736 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 2: to make. I think Nick Chubb is gonna have a 737 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: big game the Browns. I mean, they're seasons basically all 738 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 2: bit over, so I think they're gonna think I think 739 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 2: they're gonna come out and run hard against the Bengals. 740 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like to pick. 741 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 1: I'd be a little worried about the fact that Kareem 742 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 1: Hunt continues to kind of siphon off some carries since 743 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 1: he's been back, you know, with Chubb. But in the end, 744 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 1: it's such a great matchup. They are gonna run it 745 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 1: all the time. And you know, Bigger Mayfield. You know, 746 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: it's not nothing the hand injury that he has. I mean, 747 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: he's poop pooing and everything like that, but it really 748 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: looked like it was affecting him. So I think they 749 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: are gonna come out it's getting cold, They're gonna lean 750 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 1: on the run, So I like it. 751 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 3: It's bold. 752 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 1: That's a high number. I'm gonna go with a smaller 753 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 1: number and a much much worse running back. I'm gonna 754 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: go with Darius Guys over seventy five rushing yards against 755 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 1: the Packers. That's at plus one ninety, so you're almost 756 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 1: getting two to one on your money. You know you 757 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 1: can run against the Packers. There are two big negatives 758 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 1: here for the Redskins. Got the game script, they're probably 759 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 1: gonna be behind, and the fact that Guys is likely 760 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: gonna split work with Adrian Peterson again. But again you know, 761 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: two to one on your money, you're obviously taking for 762 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: the odds. Guys has yet to receive more than ten 763 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: carries in a game. I think he's gonna get more 764 00:31:58,360 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: than that in this one. He's shown that he's health 765 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 1: he's running well. I think they want to let him 766 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 1: run a little bit towards the end of the season 767 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 1: to get him ready going into next season. It's in 768 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: Green Bay. It's not going to be the prettiest weather. 769 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: I mean it's not bad or anything, but it's not 770 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: going to be balmy or anything like that. Dwayne Haskins 771 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: cannot pass against a bad against a very good pass defense, 772 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: so they're certainly going to want to run it against 773 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 1: sort of the Packers Achilles Heel, which is their run defense. 774 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,200 Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of running. As again, 775 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 1: the Redskins have basically done since Bill Callahan took over. 776 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 1: They're just you know, they play the fastest games in 777 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: the NFL because they just run non stop. Even with 778 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 1: splitting time with Adrian Peterson, I think guys can still 779 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 1: see fifteen carries. I think he can get to that 780 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,960 Speaker 1: seventy five yard number. So for me, given the fact 781 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: that it's basically two to one. I will take Darius 782 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: Guy's over seventy five rushing yards up plus one ninety 783 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 1: I have. 784 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 2: I love that. I mean he look at the game 785 00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 2: he had, Lot, he had a monster game last weekend. 786 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 2: Ten carries, one hundred and twenty nine yards, two touchdowns, 787 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,479 Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that. Pick a lot. He's averaging 788 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 2: five and a half yards per carry this year. That's 789 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 2: a great one. Man. 790 00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 3: That was really positive on my pick. 791 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 1: So I'm going to be on this year up to 792 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 1: six now yeah to sex, Yes, all right, if you 793 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: come back again, we'll keep rising up. So again, you 794 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 1: like Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards, 795 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: I will take Darius Guice over seventy five rushing yards. 796 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 3: Well, that is going to do it for today's show. 797 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 3: Thanks for coming back on the show. Ian. Remind everybody 798 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 3: where they can find more of you in your work. 799 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. The main place is to follow me on 800 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 2: Twitter at Ian mac O s I A I N 801 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 2: m Acos. Also I'm on Guys and Bets every day. 802 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 2: That's the Odd Shark Live Show. We go live Monday 803 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 2: to Friday at twelve pm Eastern on YouTube. So check 804 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 2: out our YouTube channel, it's just odd Shark awesome. 805 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 1: Well, I want to remind everyone about our sponsor bet MGM, 806 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 1: where you can win one hundred dollars on a one 807 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 1: dollar money line bet for the Patriots to be the 808 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 1: Chiefs if Tom Brady completes. 809 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 3: Even a single pass in the game. 810 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: If you sign up for the bet MGM Sports app 811 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 1: using our promo code Harris and don't forget to leave 812 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 1: us a review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send 813 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot 814 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: com to be entered into our Michael Thomas Find Helmet giveaway. 815 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends, 816 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 1: we will be back breaking down the early lines for 817 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 1: week fifteen on Monday