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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Hammer Territory Podcast. My name is Sean Coleman.

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Speaker 1: Hope wherever you are and wherever you are listening, you

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Speaker 1: are having a great start to your week. Yes, unfortunately

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Speaker 1: the off season has begun for the Atlanta Braves, but

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Speaker 1: that does not mean that we are stopping here when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the Hammer Territory Podcast. A proud member

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Speaker 1: of the family of podcasts under Foul Territory and of course,

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Speaker 1: as always my podcast partner with me, Stephen Tolbert. Stephen,

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Speaker 1: I know again, we wished that we were talking, you know,

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Speaker 1: about the Atlanta Braves going through another playoff series. Unfortunately

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Speaker 1: that was not in the cards this year, but we

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Speaker 1: have plenty to discuss and always it's a pleasure to

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Speaker 1: be with you man.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what's up, Sean, Yeah, it was you know, after

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Speaker 2: the season end. It's always a funny time because it's

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Speaker 2: a mixed bag of emotions of warning of not wanting

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Speaker 2: the season to be over, but you know, in some

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Speaker 2: part of you kind of being glad that it's over

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Speaker 2: and you can kind of take a break, and obviously

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Speaker 2: we go you know, this is a twelve month podcast,

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Speaker 2: so the podcast itself never stopped, but you know, just

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Speaker 2: getting like a seven or eight day mental break from

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Speaker 2: having to think about the team or thinking about the

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Speaker 2: upcoming game or the pitching rotation.

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Speaker 3: Or the lineup or you know.

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Speaker 2: I was basically would turn my brain off to all

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Speaker 2: that stuff and just kind of watch playoff baseball, watch football.

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Speaker 3: So it was.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie, it was kind of nice. It

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Speaker 2: was nice to watch the Mets and Phillies play and

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Speaker 2: not have really any emotional attachment to it. Same thing

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Speaker 2: with like the Yankees and the Royals. So yeah, it

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Speaker 2: is weird. And obviously we wish the season was still going.

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Speaker 2: Wish wish the Brids were making a deep run into

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Speaker 2: October right now. But on our side, obviously the the

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Speaker 2: offseason has begun, and like you said that, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Braves, they did make some news this week with

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Speaker 2: the Alex and Snitt had their exit interview and some

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Speaker 2: other things that we're gonna get tonight.

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Speaker 3: But it's always good to talk to.

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Speaker 1: You, buddy, absolutely, And the reason why I had so

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Speaker 1: much fun to talk with you, Steven, is because that's

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Speaker 1: the great thing about baseball is that even when you're

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Speaker 1: even when you don't have a season that you had

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Speaker 1: hoped for even when it ends early and there's you know,

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Speaker 1: just be honest, there was more negative than positive when

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Speaker 1: it came to the twenty twenty four season for the Braves.

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Speaker 1: There's so much to talk about because, like we say,

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Speaker 1: this is a twelve month podcast, because baseball is a

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Speaker 1: twelve month sport. There's always something going on, whether you're

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Speaker 1: still playing for the title that year or you're prepping

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Speaker 1: to get in the best position to go after the

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Speaker 1: title the next season. And one thing that we've constantly

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Speaker 1: seen when it comes to the Braves is that, you know,

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Speaker 1: especially over the past three years, once they've exited the

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Speaker 1: playoffs earlier than many expected, earlier than you know, we

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Speaker 1: know they wanted to exit the playoffs. I got to

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Speaker 1: give credit to Brian Snicker as well as Alex and Topless.

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Speaker 1: They always are right there within forty eight hours, ready

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Speaker 1: to answer questions that they know are going to come

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Speaker 1: their way, tough questions that they know we're going to

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Speaker 1: come their way. And that's once again what they did

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Speaker 1: on Saturday this past weekend. And Stephen, you and I

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Speaker 1: talked about it. You know, last time we did a

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Speaker 1: podcast last Thursday, and I had mentioned my hope was

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Speaker 1: was that Alex and Toopolis would be candid. He would specify,

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Speaker 1: he would show that he understood. Not no, he does,

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Speaker 1: but he would he would definitely say it. He would

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Speaker 1: provide candid thoughts about the fact that, yes, we underperformed

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Speaker 1: this year, not just in terms of what but also

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Speaker 1: in terms of approach. We did not live up to

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Speaker 1: our standard when it came to our offensive approach this season.

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Speaker 1: I will say the questions that came to him set

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Speaker 1: up that type of answer, But I didn't leave, you know,

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Speaker 1: feeling like that we got that and I shouldn't be surprised,

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Speaker 1: you know, Alexantopoless has never been one to throw his

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Speaker 1: players under the bus, what have you. But it seemed

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Speaker 1: like that the one thing that he was really really

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Speaker 1: trying to do was put emphasis on the fact that

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Speaker 1: they dealt with more injuries than they expected to, which yes,

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Speaker 1: played a big part in this season overall, and also

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Speaker 1: under performance. But there wasn't as candid of a approach to, hey,

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Speaker 1: we didn't live up to our standard that we did offensively.

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Speaker 1: Changes are going to need to be made. I didn't

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Speaker 1: come away feeling that that was, you know, truly what

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Speaker 1: he felt caused the issues this season. What are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on that? And again, you know, not gonna put

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Speaker 1: too much emphasis. Somebody said, I just would have liked

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Speaker 1: a bit more of a you know, admission that you know, hey,

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Speaker 1: we just didn't play well offensively this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, those exit those exit press conferences are always interesting

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Speaker 2: because obviously everybody is looking for you know, they're looking

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Speaker 2: for sort of morsels of information that we can actually

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Speaker 2: expound upon and even try to find a kernel of truth.

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Speaker 2: And it's very interesting because those press conferences for for

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Speaker 2: gms and for presidents of baseball ops, there there is

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Speaker 2: one goal in those press conferences, and that is to

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Speaker 2: make everybody believe that the status quo is good enough.

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Speaker 2: That's what they're all trying to do. And the reason

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Speaker 2: they're all trying to do that is because none of

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Speaker 2: them want to be put in a situation where they

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Speaker 2: have to make a move. And everybody knows that they

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Speaker 2: have to make a move. And so that's why you

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Speaker 2: get answers. You know about Orlando Orcia, you know who

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Speaker 2: was it the strongest endorsement I've ever heard, No, But

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Speaker 2: you know, he said things like, well, you know, typically

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Speaker 2: he's supposed to be batting ninth, and if everybody's healthy

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Speaker 2: and productive, then you know he's not going to kill

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Speaker 2: you down there.

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Speaker 3: He was an All Star last year.

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Speaker 2: You know, he essentially gave you the you know, if

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Speaker 2: he's back at shortstop next year and everything else goes right,

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Speaker 2: the status quo is okay. And then you know, he

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Speaker 2: was talking about, you know, the pitching side, and he

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Speaker 2: was talking about how good the top four are with

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Speaker 2: Sale and Strider and Lopez and Schwellenbach, and you know,

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Speaker 2: people were expecting him to be like, no, we need

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Speaker 2: to go out and get pitching. And he said, well,

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Speaker 2: I like our top four, I like our depth. You know,

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Speaker 2: if something makes it, will do it. But I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to promise anything. He'd he you know, his whole thing,

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Speaker 2: and it's a it's always been this way is he

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Speaker 2: is trying to convince everybody that how it is right now,

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Speaker 2: how the roster is right now, the status quo is

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Speaker 2: good enough. And I remember a couple of years ago

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Speaker 2: when the Braves had three catchers. The Braves had Manny Pagna,

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Speaker 2: they had William Coutrez and that Travis Arnaut and everybody,

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Speaker 2: you know, everybody assumed they were going to trade one,

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Speaker 2: and Alex came out and said, well, you know, I

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Speaker 2: like having the depth. I like having you know, we're

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Speaker 2: not really interested in trading.

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Speaker 3: Any other guys. You know, we always have injuries stuff

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Speaker 3: like that.

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Speaker 2: He essentially just you know, status quo is good enough,

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Speaker 2: and then a week later he traded two of them,

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Speaker 2: you know, And that's what he does. He he is

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Speaker 2: the master, and I do mean master. He's phenomenal at

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Speaker 2: making everybody in the room, all the fans, all the media,

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Speaker 2: any other teams listening. He makes everybody believe that the

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Speaker 2: roster he has right now is good enough. And I

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Speaker 2: don't even think, you know, I know for a fact

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Speaker 2: he doesn't believe some of the things he says, because

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Speaker 2: I've I've watched. I mean, I heard him say that

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Speaker 2: von Grislm was going to play left field last year

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Speaker 2: and there was not a there was not a chance

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Speaker 2: in hell that's that Von Griston was ever going to

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Speaker 2: play left field for the Braves. But he said it

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Speaker 2: like five times and because he needed people to believe that.

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Speaker 2: And I don't believe him about Orlando Orcia. I don't

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Speaker 2: believe him about the starting pitching. You know, I think

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Speaker 2: the Braves absolutely have to go get starting pitching. I

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Speaker 2: believe the Braves are absolutely going to look to improve shortstop.

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Speaker 2: But when he's sitting there in front of the cameras

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Speaker 2: and in front of media, he is always trying to

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Speaker 2: make people believe that status quo is good enough. And

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Speaker 2: you know that's what he did.

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Speaker 3: I I you know, we.

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Speaker 2: Got to listen to the full audio clip. It's basically

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Speaker 2: thirty five minutes of him saying, well, you know, if this, this,

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Speaker 2: and this happened that then we would have been fine.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: He that's what he does, and I know people get

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Speaker 2: annoyed by it, and I certainly get annoyed by it

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Speaker 2: at times. But all he's trying to do is convince

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Speaker 2: everybody that he doesn't have to make guinea moves, and

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Speaker 2: because he doesn't want to be put in a difficult

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Speaker 2: spot with negotiations, so he know.

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Speaker 3: And he's really good at it.

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Speaker 2: And that was my main takeaway, is that Alex is

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Speaker 2: just always trying to convince people that how it is

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Speaker 2: right now is good enough and if there's something there

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Speaker 2: to be done, then they'll do it, but if not,

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Speaker 2: then they're fine walking away.

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Speaker 3: And it is funny to listen.

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Speaker 2: To it, listen to him do it over and over again,

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Speaker 2: because he is a master at it well.

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Speaker 1: And I am again I am an added Alex and

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Speaker 1: Thopolis supporter. I think, especially when it comes to making

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Speaker 1: moves on the margins, he has done a phenomenal job.

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Speaker 1: He does a great job. He is so in tune.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that there's a general manager out there

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Speaker 1: who when there's clearly needs this that the Braves need

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Speaker 1: to have to try to put themselves in a position

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Speaker 1: to be better where there's clear weaknesses. Alex and Thoppoless

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Speaker 1: has a great way of being able to go make

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Speaker 1: moves and a lot of times to moves no one anticipates,

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Speaker 1: in order to improve those weaknesses on the fly, especially

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Speaker 1: in the middle.

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Speaker 3: Of the season.

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Speaker 1: But I also we'll you know, do feel that there's

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Speaker 1: a bit of room for criticism because if I'm correct,

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Speaker 1: the three most recent additions to the braves current starting

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Speaker 1: lineup that Alexanthopolis has made has been Orlando Arcia, has

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Speaker 1: been Sean Murphy, and has been Jared Kilnick. All the

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Speaker 1: other players were already in the organization before before Alex

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Speaker 1: and Thoppoliss came or were drafted. Or traded for before

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Speaker 1: those three players. And right now, when you look at

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Speaker 1: this Brave lineup, when you look at this Braves position

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Speaker 1: player roster, those are the three areas where when you

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Speaker 1: look at it, you're probably gonna see people say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: these are the three areas where we really could upgrade,

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Speaker 1: where we really could improve the most. Now, I don't

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Speaker 1: think they're going to do it the catcher position. They've

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Speaker 1: got too much of an investment in Sean Murphy and

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Speaker 1: I still believe his talent is there. But Orlando Arcia

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Speaker 1: and Jared Kelnick are certainly players who I feel are

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Speaker 1: going to be on the roster next year. But I

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Speaker 1: also will not be surprisingly try and go an upgrade.

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Speaker 1: So my point that I'm getting at is is to

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Speaker 1: your point, Yes, Alex and Thoppolis can speak all the

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Speaker 1: words that he wants to, and he does a fine

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Speaker 1: job at it, but at some point performance and actions

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Speaker 1: do speak louder than words, and I think that we've

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Speaker 1: seen multiple years now to where the position players that

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Speaker 1: Alex and Thopolis has gone out and acquired, they have

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Speaker 1: not performed to the level as he has other players

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Speaker 1: have in previous years, and so things have to change.

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Speaker 1: Something has to change or he's got to quickly say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: these players that I've gotten, they're not working out as

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Speaker 1: they needed to. I need to go get something that

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Speaker 1: will provide more of an instant upgrade. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a fair area to criticize, and I think that that's

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Speaker 1: why when it comes to how the Braves are going

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Speaker 1: to approach the off season, Alexis Thopolis has got to realize, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I need to make moves that they're going to make

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Speaker 1: this offense better, even if it's me admitting that a

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Speaker 1: past move that I made was the wrong one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're yeah, I mean they're not gonna there.

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Speaker 2: There's no chance that they're gonna move on from Murphy.

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Speaker 2: You know, he had obviously had a terrible We've said

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Speaker 2: it multiple times on this podcast. Bran Scott said it

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Speaker 2: the other night. He had a terrible year. Like he

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Speaker 2: just had a terrible year. He did get hurt at

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Speaker 2: the very beginning. Snit talked about it in his you

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Speaker 2: know when he was speaking that you know, you thought

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Speaker 2: just Murphy never caught up, and there is some truth

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Speaker 2: to you know, when you get hurt at the beginning

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Speaker 2: of the year and you miss that much time, and

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Speaker 2: when you come back, like everybody else is well into

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Speaker 2: the season, everybody else is got knock the rust off,

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Speaker 2: and you're just constantly trying to play catch up. And

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Speaker 2: it doesn't help that he's you know, he splits time

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Speaker 2: with Darnault, so it's harder for him to play catch

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Speaker 2: up than probably any other player who plays every day.

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Speaker 2: I do think that there's some validity to that, But yeah,

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Speaker 2: Sean Murphy has to be better.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it doesn't help.

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Speaker 2: That William Contreras had a monster year for Milwaukee, of course,

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Speaker 2: because those two players were essentially, not technically, but essentially

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Speaker 2: traded for one another, and somehow Oakland didn't end up

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Speaker 2: with either player, which is hysterical, but that's just Oakland

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Speaker 2: for you. So, yeah, Sean Murphy's got to be better.

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Speaker 2: But you know they're gonna give him every opportunity. Obviously

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Speaker 2: they've got a lot of money tied him to uh

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Speaker 2: to Sean, but yeah, stop in left field. I feel

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Speaker 2: like we've been talking about for about three years now.

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Speaker 2: Quite honestly. I mean, you know, every other position on

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Speaker 2: the diamond is pretty set relative to long term you know,

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Speaker 2: locked up pieces and short stop and left field just

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Speaker 2: kind of consistently hang out there. And you know, in

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Speaker 2: twenty three, Rcia had such a good year that you know,

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Speaker 2: it felt like the Braves could probably survive one more

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Speaker 2: after the season that Arcia just put up. I don't

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Speaker 2: know that they're I don't know Alex is gonna get

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Speaker 2: you know, this year, Alex got the benefit of the

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Speaker 2: doubt because Rcia had such a good year last year.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's not gonna get that benefit of

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Speaker 3: that doubt again.

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Speaker 2: You know, Rcia just came off a horrible year. He

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Speaker 2: was miserable offensively. He's a good defender. I think he

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Speaker 2: gets more credit than he deserves. I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: like an all world defender. I think he's a solid

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Speaker 2: defender at shortstop, but when you add in the offense,

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Speaker 2: it's pretty rough. Quite honestly, you know, I think he

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Speaker 2: finished at like under a you know, under one. War

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Speaker 2: is essentially a replacement level player last year, which is

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Speaker 2: what he is. I mean, he's a bench piece and

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Speaker 2: that's that's how he's paid. That's what he should be.

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Speaker 2: Should be he should be the Brigs, like number one

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Speaker 2: bench utility player. He'd be a hell of a player

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Speaker 2: in that role. But yeah, they gotta go to short stop,

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Speaker 2: they got to go left fielder. The outfield situation, we

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Speaker 2: could do a whole show on just because of Acuna

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Speaker 2: and Solaire and Ozuna and Loreano and then adding Kelnick

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Speaker 2: and who the hell knows what you're gonna get from him. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that whole the whole outfield center that We're probably gonna

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Speaker 2: do multiple shows on the outfield this this offseason because

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Speaker 2: it's so interesting. But yeah, shortstop is the one where

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Speaker 2: and and Brad said it on their show, like it wasn't.

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Speaker 3: A ringing endorsement that he gave gave Barcia, like.

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Speaker 2: He definitely left some room where he could say like, no,

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Speaker 2: I was I was looking the whole time for a shortstop,

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Speaker 2: like I you know, he it was not the strongest

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Speaker 2: endorsement I've ever heard. He did put a lot of

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Speaker 2: qualifiers in there about injuries and about if he's batting ninth,

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Speaker 2: he's not gonna kill you. And you know, he had

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Speaker 2: an All Star year, Like there were qualifiers in there

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Speaker 2: for sure, but he also didn't like you know, he

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Speaker 2: didn't plant the flag can say like, no, this guy's

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Speaker 2: our short stop.

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Speaker 3: We love him. We trust him.

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Speaker 2: He didn't say any of that either, so I think shortstop.

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Speaker 2: I think this is one of those situations again where

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Speaker 2: he's saying stuff to try to convince people that he

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Speaker 2: doesn't have to make a move, when you know in

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Speaker 2: his head he knows I need to go find a

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Speaker 2: short stop for this, for this franchise.

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Speaker 4: We get it. Mornings are nuts, no time for breakfast,

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Speaker 1: And I definitely think that that is going to be

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest offseason needs. I definitely feel, you know,

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Speaker 1: last year, when it came out of the exit interview,

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Speaker 1: the big thing that we certainly felt was going to

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Speaker 1: be the major focus of the off season was pitching.

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Speaker 1: In long and Behold, Alexanthopolis went out made multiple moves.

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Speaker 1: He extended some players that he already had in the franchise,

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Speaker 1: went out and got a name such as Aaron Bummer, Chrissell,

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Speaker 1: and Ronaldo Lopez, and the results could were better than

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Speaker 1: anybody could have expected. I'm not sitting here saying that

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Speaker 1: I feel that he's going to make multiple moves to

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Speaker 1: improve the offense. In twenty twenty five, we're going to

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Speaker 1: have an even better offensive year than we did in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. But I do think that when it

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Speaker 1: comes to this team, I don't think the core needs

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Speaker 1: to be messed with Riley Acunya, Harris albeys Alson Murphy,

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Speaker 1: I think you're fine with those players. I do think

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Speaker 1: that it makes sense to go out and get multiple upgrades,

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Speaker 1: potentially in left field and shortstop. We'll see eventually what

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Speaker 1: the Braves do, but of course we have all off

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Speaker 1: season to speculate on some players that could make sense.

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Speaker 1: But the one other thing that I think clearly we

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Speaker 1: take away from twenty and twenty four. The if twenty

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Speaker 1: and twenty three was defined by how historic the Braves

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Speaker 1: offense was, I think twenty and twenty four was defined by, hey,

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Speaker 1: if the Braves are not showing historic levels of power,

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Speaker 1: how much they struggle in other areas of depth when

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Speaker 1: it comes to their offense that are more important once

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Speaker 1: they're not hitting at historical power. What I mean of

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Speaker 1: that is that when the Braves are not you know,

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Speaker 1: challenging you know, the all time single season team record

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Speaker 1: for home runs like they did in twenty three, when

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Speaker 1: they're not doing that, more emphasis is put on how

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Speaker 1: they do with runners in scoring position, how they do

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Speaker 1: in high leverage situations, how they do it getting on base.

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Speaker 1: Can they you know, can consistently put the ball in play,

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Speaker 1: those things matter, and Steve and I think that, you know,

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Speaker 1: when while we saw that the Braids can still hit

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Speaker 1: home runs with the best of them, we also saw

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Speaker 1: that in multiple other areas they struggled, and they struggled mightily,

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Speaker 1: And that's one big thing that really kept them from

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Speaker 1: going where they wanted to go this season, even with

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Speaker 1: the injuries that occurred.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, twenty four was just a a perfect storm

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Speaker 2: of events that led to a massive, massive underperformance offensively.

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Speaker 2: And the first, the first thing you have to talk

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Speaker 2: about is the injuries, of course, like you have to

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Speaker 2: talk about the fact that Akunya missed four months, that

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Speaker 2: Riley missed essentially two months, that Michael Harris missed two months,

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Speaker 2: Ozzie missed two months, Sean Murphy missed two months, Like

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Speaker 2: all of that matters, and it's and all of that

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Speaker 2: needs to be said at the top, like that is

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Speaker 2: probably the number one factor. On top of that, the

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Speaker 2: Braves also had massive underperformance from guys who stayed healthy

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Speaker 2: or guys who got hurt, but when they did play,

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Speaker 2: they weren't the same level of hitter they were expected

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Speaker 2: to be. And if you look at the numbers, like ops,

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Speaker 2: you know, look at you know, go grab any any

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Speaker 2: projection system from last year, you know, ZIPS, Steam or whatever.

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Speaker 2: And the Braves had a number of players that finished

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Speaker 2: with an OPS about one hundred points below what they

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Speaker 2: were expected to do, not what they did in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three, but what they were projected to.

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Speaker 3: Do in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: The Braves had a bunch of guys, I mean Akunya,

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Speaker 2: Riley Olsen, you know, Murphy Kell, Nick duvall Ozzi, everybody

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Speaker 2: not named Ozuno, basically, I mean all the starting players

395
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Speaker 2: not named Ozuna basically finished with massive, massive underperformances in

396
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Speaker 2: their OPS versus what they were projected. And so the

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Speaker 2: natural question is why why did did that happen? Like

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Speaker 2: what the hell happened? And if you look at the numbers,

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Speaker 2: there are some interesting things. The Braves did suffer from

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Speaker 2: a massive underperformance of their expected numbers, which means they

401
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Speaker 2: hit the ball harder and better. Then the results ended

402
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 2: up showing like the Braves led the league in hard

403
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 2: hit hard hit rate, they led the league in exit velocity.

404
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 2: Those are really strong indicators of offensive success. And you

405
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Speaker 2: know it, just the results never quite caught up to

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Speaker 2: the expected numbers. And I would bet very heavily that

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Speaker 2: if the Braves did that again next year, they would

408
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Speaker 2: not have the same level of offensive struggles they had

409
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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: So that's part of it.

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Speaker 2: There was an under you know, you have to talk

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Speaker 2: about the injuries. Then you have to talk about the

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Speaker 2: underperformance of the expected data versus the actual data. But

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Speaker 2: then you have to talk about the situational hitting, which

415
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 2: is what you're talking about. And you know, I have

416
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Speaker 2: a stat you know, in twenty twenty three, the Braves

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Speaker 2: had the highest team WRC plus in high leverage situations.

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Speaker 2: They had a one to forty one WRC plus and

419
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Speaker 2: high leveraged situations in twenty twenty three. In twenty twenty four,

420
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Speaker 2: they had the second worst WRC plus in high leverage situations.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty three, they had a one forty one

422
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Speaker 2: WRC plus and high leverage situations. In twenty twenty four

423
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: they had a sixty two WRC plus in high leverage situations.

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Speaker 2: So that's a drop of eighty points in WRC plus

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Speaker 2: in the biggest spots of the game. And it's not

426
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Speaker 2: terribly predictive. A lot of that is randomness and a

427
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Speaker 2: lot of that is just small sample sized noise, but

428
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Speaker 2: that explains a ton of why the Braves seemingly every

429
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Speaker 2: night struggled to get the biggest hit of the game

430
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Speaker 2: where they came up with it so often in twenty three,

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Speaker 2: they seemingly never came up with it.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty four and.

433
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 2: Twenty three, in the high leverage spots they hit forty

434
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 2: home runs and twenty four in high leverage spots they

435
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 2: hit ten homes Like it's it was just night and

436
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 2: day difference in the biggest moments of the game when

437
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: the game was gonna get decided, especially as many low

438
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 2: sporting games as the Braves played in twenty three, they

439
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 2: always came up with those hits, and in twenty four

440
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: they basically never did. The only team that had a

441
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 2: worst w DOC plus and high leverage spots than the

442
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: Braves last year was the White Sox, who were, like

443
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 2: you know, arguably the worst team in the history of

444
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: the sport. That was the only team that was worse

445
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 2: than the Braves and high leverage situations last year offensively,

446
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: And so you combine it all together, the injuries, the

447
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,680
Speaker 2: expected underperformance, the massive, massive underperformance, and high leverage situations

448
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 2: it equals just a season worth of frustrations, and you know,

449
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: it's it's tough to ever think that you're gonna have

450
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: all of that stuff happen at the same time. Again,

451
00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 2: baseball is a very cruel, cruel, cruel sport, and it's

452
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 2: why we love it. It's why we hate it. It's

453
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: why the highs are so high and the lows are

454
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: so low.

455
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, it was.

456
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 6: It was.

457
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I know, there's a massive hurricane

458
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: going on in the Gulf right now, so I don't

459
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: want to overdo the perfect storm analogy too much, but

460
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 2: was it really was a perfect storm of events of

461
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: a lot of a different factors that led to massive,

462
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: massive underproduction what we thought would be the strength of

463
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 2: the team, which is the offense, and it just wasn't

464
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four correct and so and so.

465
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: Injuries and you know, less luck, you know, and you know,

466
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: underperformance when it came to expected stats. All those things

467
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 1: that certainly played a part. I think that there is

468
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: I think that the fact that when it came to

469
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 1: the fact that the Braves continued to be towards the

470
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 1: top the league in exit blossoy hard hit percentage, home runs.

471
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: I think that that speaks to reasons why you don't

472
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: make drastic changes to this core, especially with most of

473
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 1: the core being in their prime. I think that certainly

474
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: makes sense, but I also think that you cannot ignore

475
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: the regression that you saw from your best players in

476
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: these situational hitting stats. Stephen talked about how the Braves

477
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: significantly regressed in those high leverage situations, in the most

478
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 1: critical moments of the game, where they had the ability

479
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 1: to make some type of winning play if they had success.

480
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 3: Well.

481
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: One other area that they struggled mightily in twenty twenty

482
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: four compared to twenty three was the area where in

483
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three they had so much success. You know

484
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: a lot of times they had the game won early on,

485
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: but in twenty twenty four they didn't have that level

486
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: of success, so it was harder to win games. And

487
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: of course that's runners in scoring position. If I come

488
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: across as meeting the dead horse when it comes to

489
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: runners in scoring position, I do apologize, but it cannot

490
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: be ignored just how badly the Braves regressed in those situations.

491
00:23:55,240 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: Take these numbers, for instance, and to clarify these numbers

492
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: with runners in scoring position are from May first through

493
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: the end of the season in twenty three and twenty four,

494
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: because over the past couple of years April has been

495
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: a bit of an outlier, So these numbers I'm about

496
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: to give are from May on each season when the

497
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 1: Braves have really kind of defined their season offensively. In

498
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, when the nursing's scoring position, the Braves

499
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,919
Speaker 1: had the second best strikeout percentage, the second Thewest strikeout

500
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: percentage just under nineteen percent. They struck out just under

501
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: nineteen percent of the time with Renerson scoring position in

502
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, second best in the majors. In twenty

503
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 1: twenty four, they had the twenty sixth best. They struck

504
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: out seven more percent of the time at seven percent

505
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 1: higher rate in twenty twenty four than in twenty twenty

506
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 1: three with Runderson scoring position. That is a massive increase

507
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 1: in terms of not putting the ball in play. That's

508
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 1: why we saw so few productive outs with Runerson' scoring

509
00:24:55,400 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: position walk rate. The Braves went from six in the

510
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: majors in what in excuse me an on base percentage

511
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: with Thunderson scoring position in twenty twenty three to twenty

512
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: ninth in the majors in twenty twenty four. They did

513
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 1: not put together good at bats. They did not draw

514
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: walks in twenty twenty four and anywhere near the cliff

515
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: that they did in twenty twenty three. You also saw

516
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 1: their ISO, what measures their power, that dropped from a

517
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: two nineteen number that led baseball in twenty twenty three

518
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: to one sixty seven, a fifty point drop in ISO

519
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: with runners in scoring position between twenty twenty three and

520
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,479
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. And the biggest thing of all, they

521
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: went from a WRC plus of one twenty which was

522
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: fourth and twenty twenty three with runners in scoring position

523
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: down to an eighty six WRC plus which was twenty fifth.

524
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: So the point that I'm getting at is is that

525
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: the Braves not being able to put together productive at bats,

526
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: swinging it balls out of the strike zone, not being discipline,

527
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: their inability to be selective in twenty twenty four like

528
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: they were in two thousand. In twenty three, that made

529
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: it harder to square up the baseball on a frequent basis,

530
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: and thus that took away from their power. And because

531
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,679
Speaker 1: of the fact they struck out more, because of the

532
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 1: fact they walked less and because they didn't put the

533
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: ball in play with as much authority. That led to

534
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: a significant drop off in their overall production. And the

535
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: biggest takeaway from that of all Steven is that I know,

536
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 1: I mention all these numbers and people think, okay, well

537
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: because of the injuries. You know, that's naturally going to

538
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: happen when you have a g o or Sella or

539
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: an Eddie Rosario or you know, an Adam de Vall

540
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 1: struggling like he was, you know, a Jared Kilnick, when

541
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: you have those players happening, you know, happening to be

542
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: up and running and scoring situations. We taught numerous times

543
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: where it felt like every game or Lando Arcia was

544
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: up at a big run scoring opportunity, and that is true.

545
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 1: But you also have to consider that Austin Riley, Ronald Acunya, Junior,

546
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,360
Speaker 1: Marcelo Zuna, each one of those players had an eight

547
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: percent or higher increase in their strikeout numbers with scoring position.

548
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: So it's not just the high leverage situations where the

549
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 1: Braves struggled mildly, it's in general their ability to create

550
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: and convert run scoring opportunities. It's going to be significant.

551
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: It's going to be important they have success in those

552
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: areas moving forward. If they're not going to hit home

553
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,479
Speaker 1: runs at historic rates in twenty twenty four, was an

554
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: indication they have a lot of room to grow in

555
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: those situational hitting opportunities, especially when they have the chance

556
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 1: to score runs.

557
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I do from I do want to point

558
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: out I do think it matters in this conversation that

559
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: offense was down all over baseball last year. Like I remember,

560
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 2: I looked this up like the day after the season

561
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 2: was over, because I was writing something about it. But

562
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, the league average OPS was seven

563
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 2: thirty four. In twenty twenty four, the league average OPS

564
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 2: was seven to eleven, So almost you know, twenty two

565
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: to twenty three point drop in OPS in terms of

566
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: the league average number, which is a obviously that's a

567
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 2: massive drop. And there's been all sorts of theories about

568
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: the ball if if MLB is still screwing around with

569
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 2: the ball. The Braves had an unusual amount of barrels

570
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 2: that died at the track. Braves fans will know what

571
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 2: we're talking about there.

572
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 3: So again, it was a.

573
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: Unfortunate series of events that led the Braves down the

574
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 2: road that I mean, honest to God, like a single

575
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 2: baseball season can have a ton of variants. The odds

576
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 2: that that season was the one that played out was

577
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: like one in a million. Like everything that had to

578
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: happen for that Braves team to pitch as well as

579
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: they did and struggle all season long to even make

580
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Like just the series of events that had

581
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 2: to occur. You had to have debilitating injuries, you had

582
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: to have a massive underperformance to your expected numbers. You

583
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: had to be just unreal, unusually bad in high leverage

584
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 2: spots and runners in scoring position relative to what you

585
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 2: normally do. You know, you had to have like a

586
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 2: league wide offensive, you know, suppression that we saw, Like

587
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 2: all those things had to happen for what we saw

588
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four to take place. And you know,

589
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: I know everybody's gonna have their theories and everybody's gonna

590
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 2: lean on one thing. You know, you have people that

591
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 2: say it's all the injuries. It's not all the injuries.

592
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: All the injuries explain some of it. But again I've

593
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: said this before, I think that's a disingenuous way of

594
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: looking at twenty twenty four. If if that's all you

595
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 2: talk about because there are there are these other factors

596
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: that we've talked about tonight that do matter and played

597
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 2: a role, played a large role, because again the brains

598
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 2: had the number one era in baseball, Like the the

599
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: bar they had to clear offensively to be a really

600
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 2: good team was not that high. I mean, you know,

601
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: just like an average offense, an average you know that

602
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: scored four or five, you know, three four runs a

603
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: game on a consistent basis, what would have been just

604
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: fine this year like they were, they were very bad,

605
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: especially in the biggest spots in game, and that's what

606
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: cost them. And the injuries were part of it. The

607
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: underperformance to their expected numbers were part of it. The

608
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 2: you know, league wide offensive suppression was part of it,

609
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: and just you know, bad luck just being unbelievably bad

610
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 2: and high leverage spots relative to how good you are

611
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 2: the rest of the game. And again, some of that

612
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 2: is just noise. Some of that as small sample, Some

613
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 2: of that is just randomness, you know, that tends to

614
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: correct over a larger sample. There's not typically a Typically

615
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 2: when you hit, you hit better with runners on base

616
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: than you do with bases empty, because pitchers pitch worse

617
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: with runners on base than they do with the bases empty.

618
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 2: If you look over a large sample, most teams hit

619
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: about ten or fifteen points better when there's men on

620
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: base versus when there's not, and twenty twenty four, the

621
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: Braves actually hit much worse when there's men on base

622
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 2: versus when there's not, which again is very weird. It

623
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: doesn't happen that often and over a large, large sample

624
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: it would never happen. But again, one baseball season, the

625
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: amount of variance that happens, and you know, weird things happen,

626
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: And for the Braves offense in twenty twenty four, it

627
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 2: was just a crazy, crazy series of events that led

628
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: to what we saw play out over six months, and

629
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: it sucks. It was very frustrating to watch. I would

630
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 2: be stunned if it happened again, just because of all

631
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: the different things that had to come together to make

632
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 2: that happen. But you know, that's the season that we got,

633
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 2: and that's the season that the team is going to

634
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 2: have to live with, and that's the season that you know,

635
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: Alex is gonna have to go into the off season

636
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 2: with to try to, you know, make it better. And yeah,

637
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: it was just it was a it was a. It

638
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: was a wild year for a number of reasons.

639
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: And Stephen, as we wrap up this edition in the

640
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: Hammer Territory podcast, I want to you know, form this

641
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: question to you based off what we've discussed and just

642
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: get your thoughts. I agree, it's a It is a

643
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: bunch of crazy factors that went into this being a

644
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: massive disappointment when it came to the Braves offensively in

645
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, coming off when the best season we've

646
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: seen a team have r ab offensively in twenty twenty three.

647
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: Injuries played a part in it. Onder performance had a

648
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: part in it. Bad approach and the most critical moments

649
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: played a part in it. And the inability to be

650
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 1: able to timely hit with Runners's scoring position. So things

651
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: outside of your control and things within your control, they

652
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: all contributed to the Brave struggles. But the question I

653
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 1: post to you is how much do you think it?

654
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: You know lies on the league adjusted to the Braves.

655
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: You know, did they perhaps take what the Phillies had

656
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: did in the previous two playoffs and a bunch of

657
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: other teams were able to do it over the entire

658
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 1: season to where they prevented the Braves or being able

659
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: to have as much success. Do you feel like that

660
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: plays a bigger part in the Brave struggles that people may,

661
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: you know, put emphasis on it. How much of it

662
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: do you feel is the league adjusting to the Braves,

663
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: which then of course puts more emphasis on this offseason,

664
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: the Braves adjusting back to the league based off what

665
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: they saw in twenty twenty four from pitching approaches compared

666
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: to two thousand, twenty three and before.

667
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one of those things that over a one season,

668
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: even though one season seems like a lot of data,

669
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: one season is actually pretty small in terms of trying

670
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 2: to determine something like that. Like in twenty twenty two,

671
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 2: the Braves they had a good offense, they didn't have

672
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 2: like they had you know, I think they were like

673
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 2: seventh or eighth in offense. In twenty twenty two and

674
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three they came back and just were world beaters,

675
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: the best offense we've ever seen, probably the best offense

676
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: any of us we'll ever seen our lives. And then

677
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four they had, you know, I would say

678
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: a below average offense. And if you look at the

679
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: numbers past, like May first they had one of they

680
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: had a bottom five offense in baseball after May first

681
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: last year, So like, which one is real?

682
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: Right?

683
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: Like you had an unbelievable year in twenty twenty three,

684
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: you had a solid year in twenty twenty two, and

685
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: then last year you had a terrible year, especially after

686
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 2: May first, So what's the real one?

687
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 3: Right?

688
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 2: And again, one season has so much variance, I don't

689
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 2: they were always gonna regress from twenty twenty three. Twenty

690
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: twenty three is not real, Like there's no way to

691
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 2: repeat that. So I'm gonna I'm gonna need to see

692
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,879
Speaker 2: another season, Like if it happens again, if next year

693
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 2: the Braves get everybody back and they're still you know,

694
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: everybody's like a hundred and fifty points below their expected ops,

695
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: then then there's a real conversation like what the hell,

696
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 2: Like what's going on? Like something is very clearly wrong

697
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 2: from a you know, a preparation on an approach, you know,

698
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,919
Speaker 2: I know Ineno, Siahs talked about how the Braves were

699
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 2: seeing a lot of fastballs and then they were seeing

700
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: a lot of sliders and maybe they got caught in between.

701
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: You know, that would explain why we saw the Braves

702
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: take so many fastballs right down the middle of the plate,

703
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 2: or swing and miss through them or fall them off.

704
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: The Braves had an unreal year in terms of not

705
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: taking advantage of meatball pitches, which is another part of

706
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 2: you know, if we really want to really go down

707
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: the rabbit hole, you know, in terms of how Braves

708
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 2: did on each pitch, like we could We could definitely

709
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 2: do that.

710
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 3: We might do that some point in the off season

711
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 3: if we need some content.

712
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm gonna need to see another year before

713
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: I'm convinced that, you know, the league has figured something

714
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: out with the Braves. You know, I'm gonna need to

715
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 2: see a healthy lineup. I'm gonna need to see a

716
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: normalization of some of these batted ball stuff. I'm gonna

717
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,240
Speaker 2: see a normalization of how they hit in different leverages

718
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: because again, and there's a lot of noise and randomness

719
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: in those numbers.

720
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna see. I'm gonna need.

721
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 2: To see more data before I'm convinced that the league

722
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,959
Speaker 2: has figured out some trick against the Braves. So we'll see,

723
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: you know, twenty twenty five will tell us a lot.

724
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 2: But I do want to say, even though there are

725
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: reasons to expect this team to be better just because

726
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: it's a new year and guys will be healthy and

727
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 2: a lot of this weird shit that we saw this

728
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 2: year probably won't happen again. I don't believe that it

729
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 2: is a reason not to go make the team better offensively,

730
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 2: Like you gotta go get a short stop. You need

731
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: to get a short stop, like Orlando or C is

732
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 2: not a starting shortstop. He's a really, really good bench player.

733
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: He's a great clubhouse guy. He's paid like a bench guy.

734
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 2: That's because that's what he is. He doesn't need to

735
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: be a starting short stop. You got away with in

736
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. He had this magical season. You just

737
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 2: count your blessings for that, and you need to go

738
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 2: find a starting shortstop, you know, left field. We can

739
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 2: talk about. I can be convinced of a lot of

740
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 2: different things. But you know, if you want to help

741
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: this team, in my opinion, yes, you're gonna get guys healthy,

742
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: but go get a go get a shortstop. Maybe add

743
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: a little speed to the lineup. That would help with

744
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 2: the manufacturing runs and hitting. You know, it's tough when

745
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 2: you're such so stationed to station as this team is

746
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 2: a little more speed in the lineup would not hurt.

747
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 2: Like if you win and got a shortstop that's got

748
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 2: a little foot speed. You know, Orlando runs like a mailbox,

749
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: so that doesn't help, you know, with his offensive struggles

750
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 2: on top of it. So yeah, I would get the

751
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: short stop. I would maybe add a little speed. I've

752
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: said before, I would go get some more left handers

753
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 2: to help balance out the lineup. Like there's things you

754
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: can do, even though you did have a bunch of

755
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 2: stuff go against you this year, if you're Alex, there's

756
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 2: things you can do to go make the team better

757
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: and then on top of it, get hopefully a normal

758
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: season out of a lot of this this weird stuff

759
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: that happened. And so that's what I'm going to be

760
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: looking forward, you know, to see in what happens in

761
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 2: that regard over the next you know, three months.

762
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: The one other thing that stood out to me Stephen

763
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: from Alex and Toopolis's exit interview is that he talked

764
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: about twenty twenty one and what stood out in the

765
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: twenty one playoffs that has not been there for the

766
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:26,879
Speaker 1: Braves of the past three playoffs. And we could talk

767
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 1: about the offense going cold, the offensive struggles all day long,

768
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: and I think it is certainly relevant. But one other

769
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: thing that he talked about that I myself have not

770
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 1: put enough emphasis on, and I think that in general

771
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: is not you know, people have not put a lot

772
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: of emphasis on. In the twenty twenty one playoffs, he

773
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 1: gave the stat that the Braves allowed less than two

774
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: runs per game in that twenty one playoffs, and you

775
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: talked about all season long, how unsustainable that is, how

776
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: it was going to be hard for the Braves to

777
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: be able to win playoff games or important games to

778
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 1: get to the playoffs. Two to one, three to two,

779
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: so on and so forth. The Braves won their fair

780
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: share with how good they're pitching once, but it was

781
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: never going to likely be a sustainable way of getting

782
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: the job done. We saw it got the job done

783
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, but we've also seen that it's

784
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: not been able to be sustained even in these playoffs.

785
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: Outside of the Braves games. Yes, in the division or

786
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 1: in the wild card round, we saw three to one games,

787
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 1: one to zero games, things such as that. But now

788
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: that you've gotten too division series, it's the first team

789
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 1: to five. So as awesome as it was to see

790
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: what happened in twenty twenty one. The Braves level of

791
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: pitching success in that playoff stretch is probably going to

792
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: be very hard for any team to do moving forward.

793
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 1: If you do get a team that doesn't, they're likely

794
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 1: going to make it the World Series or be your champion.

795
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: Being able to repeat that is very hard to do.

796
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: So that's why it is so important for the Braves

797
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: to not only be able to hit home runs, especially

798
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: in playoff situations, but if that's taken away from them,

799
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 1: like it hads been over the past three postseasons. They

800
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: got to have the situational hitting to be able to

801
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 1: find offensively multiple ways to win when they got to

802
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: score a good bit of runs to be able to

803
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: win playoff games.

804
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the playoffs are a whole different animal, right,

805
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 2: Like it's such as I mean you talk about small sample,

806
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 2: I mean it's just a tiny, tiny sample of games.

807
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: You have a very.

808
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: Small, small amount of time to make any sort of difference.

809
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 2: And you know, the playoff failures, which are by the way,

810
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 2: are going to get louder. The murmurs are going to

811
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 2: get louder if this happens again next year where the

812
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 2: Braves get bounced in the first round again. But yeah,

813
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: getting your pitchers healthy to October. The Braves have not

814
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 2: figured out how to do that. The Phillies somehow never

815
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,280
Speaker 2: have a pitcher ever get hurt, and the Braves always

816
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 2: have a pitcher get hurt. I don't know how that happens,

817
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 2: but and I don't know the answer to it, and

818
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 2: neither do they obviously. But yeah, getting your pitchers to

819
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: October healthy to give you the best chance, obviously is

820
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: step one. You know, I'm guessing they're gonna move on

821
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: for Max Freed and Charlie Morton, who they bring in

822
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,479
Speaker 2: and how they manage them over six months is gonna

823
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: be fascinating next year. But yeah, getting the guys healthy

824
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 2: to October obviously is step one. And then you need

825
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 2: some guys to perform. You know, in twenty one they

826
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 2: had you know, Jock Peterson tear up in the you know,

827
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: the Brewers in that series. They had Eddie Rizzario tear

828
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: up the Dodgers. In that series, they had Horace Hilaier

829
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 2: tear up the Astro. Like you need, yes, you need

830
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 2: your pitching, but you also need big offensive performances, which

831
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 2: is where the Braves have really struggled in the last

832
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: three postseasons. In my opinion is they really have not

833
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 2: hit at all. They've averaged like two runs a game

834
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 2: over the last ten postseason games. I don't care how

835
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 2: well you pitch, it's tough to win like that. So yeah,

836
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: the postings a hold different animal. But you know, overall,

837
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: for the offense, there should be just some natural correction

838
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: to some of this nonsense that happened last year and

839
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 2: going into twenty twenty five. But there's also things Alex

840
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 2: can do to help facilitate that. I think they need

841
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 2: to get more left handed, they need to get a

842
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 2: little more speed, they need to get a real shortstop.

843
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 2: You know, there's other smaller things, but those are big

844
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 2: three and I'm very curious to see what he does,

845
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 2: if he does any of that, you know what the

846
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 2: names he looks at. But there are definitely ways he

847
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 2: can help the offense on top of what should just

848
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 2: happen naturally.

849
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: And naturally, in my opinion, we could talk about it

850
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 1: all day long, as we have, and I think there's

851
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 1: so many great points, even beyond what Steve and I

852
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 1: have covered in this podcast, We're gonna have plenty more content,

853
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 1: more specifics on some names that could potentially help out

854
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 1: this offense and some other you know perspectives, you know

855
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 1: of how the Braves can go through, you know, potentially

856
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: making some subtle, but you know, relevant changes to the offense,

857
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: like they did the pitching staff last year. We saw

858
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: how well that worked for the pitching staff. Not saying

859
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: it's going to be to that level for the offense,

860
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 1: but I am saying it may not necessarily need to

861
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 1: be that level with the core that they've already got

862
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: in place. But yes, I do think changes need to

863
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 1: be made. It's gonna be very interesting to see at

864
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: what level they occur. Stephen, do you have anything else

865
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: for us on this edition of the Hammer Territory Podcast.

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Speaker 2: No, sir, We're gonna be here all off season will

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Speaker 2: be you know, two three shows a week something like that.

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Speaker 2: Like Sean said on the outset, there's always gonna be

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Speaker 2: stuff talk about. As soon as the World Series is over,

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Speaker 2: the off season being ins pretty quickly, like there's five

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Speaker 2: days and then there's you know, everybody gets going. And

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Speaker 2: Alex is a guy that moves pretty early, pretty quickly

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Speaker 2: in the off season. You know, January and February can

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00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: be a little slow, but usually November and December there's

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Speaker 2: there's quite a bit to talk about, so we'll be

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Speaker 2: here all off season. We appreciate all the support. You know,

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Speaker 2: we have the YouTube channel now that's grown quite a bit.

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Speaker 2: We've got obviously all the normal audio spots that you

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Speaker 2: can find podcasts, and we appreciate all the support as always.

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Speaker 1: Brad and Scott will be back with you later this

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Speaker 1: week with another edition to the Hammer Territory podcast, and

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Speaker 1: next week me and Steven we're starting here a bit

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Speaker 1: of murmurs, a bit of rumors you know about, you know,

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00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: some names that the Braves could potentially be connected to

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Speaker 1: as the off season develops. Will we make it a

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Speaker 1: little bit more into names next time. Certainly don't want

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Speaker 1: to talk too much about it without some substantial, you know,

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Speaker 1: reporting going on about names that could be connected for

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Speaker 1: the Braves, but hey, it's always fun to speculate about

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Speaker 1: the next big name that could become a part of

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Speaker 1: the Braves to really put us over the top as

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Speaker 1: far as being future World Series contenders. For Steven Tolbert,

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Speaker 1: you can find me and be underscore Outliers on Twitter

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00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 1: slash x. My name is Sean Coleman. You can find

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Speaker 1: me at Stat's sac on Twitter, slash x, at Hammer

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Speaker 1: Territory across all forms of social media and YouTube. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you hit that subscribe button wherever you listen to

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Speaker 1: and enjoy part of the Foul Territory family of podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Check out all the great team content and Foul Territory

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00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,879
Speaker 1: content across social media as well. Until next time, Go braves.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk teagin soon here on the Hammer Territory re

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Speaker 1: podcast