Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store
Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P and L
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Let's
Speaker 1: talk about pg n E, the California utility. The shares,
Speaker 1: as Greg Jarrett just mentioned, higher right now by more
Speaker 1: than thirty nine percent. Joining us here in the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Interact of Brokers Studios to lend his expertise is Kit Kneale.
Speaker 1: He is our senior industry analyst for the world of Utilities. Kit,
Speaker 1: thank you very much for being here. Total liabilities for
Speaker 1: p G and E. What kind of number are we
Speaker 1: talking about? Thirty billion? And I think that's the right
Speaker 1: range from last year plus this year. That's a lot
Speaker 1: of money. That's more money, twice as much money as
Speaker 1: the invested equity in p G n E, twice as
Speaker 1: much as the annual revenues for pg n E. So
Speaker 1: it you know, when you look at it that way,
Speaker 1: you get a sense of just you know how you're
Speaker 1: between a rock and a hard place when you're saying
Speaker 1: they have to pay all of this if they did well.
Speaker 1: So let's just take a step back. What is p
Speaker 1: G n e S responsibility in the fires that are
Speaker 1: currently ravage in California. In California, they have this rule
Speaker 1: called inverse condemnation, and the courts have held that if
Speaker 1: a utility equipment is in any way involved in a fire,
Speaker 1: that the utility is totally responsible for all the damages
Speaker 1: in the fire. They can't argue that somebody else had
Speaker 1: partial responsibility, or some homeowners should have done this, or
Speaker 1: some highway department should have done that. They just have
Speaker 1: to pay it all. So that's been the real crunch
Speaker 1: that makes the California situation UH different than a hurricane
Speaker 1: in Florida, for example, where there's a long history of
Speaker 1: people saying, obviously the utility didn't cause this, so you know,
Speaker 1: we have to help them pay it back. The California
Speaker 1: legislature has a voice in all of this, right, that's right.
Speaker 1: The California legislature, the governor, UH, the regulatory Commission. So
Speaker 1: all those are really kind of the three major UH
Speaker 1: state folks that are going to decide how this works out.
Speaker 1: And the legislature has already done something where they've indicated
Speaker 1: that the regulators are supposed to consider whether, basically whether
Speaker 1: utility is going to go bankrupt if it pays all
Speaker 1: of the liabilities that might be assigned to it. So
Speaker 1: the legislature has said, hey, regulators, uh, you know, don't
Speaker 1: you have to pass off some of the of the
Speaker 1: liabilities or these guys can't survive financially. And yesterday we
Speaker 1: saw the head regulator in California re emphasizing that point,
Speaker 1: and that gave stockholders a kind of new lease on
Speaker 1: life and and bond holders as well from Penny. With
Speaker 1: the bonds surging and price, I have to wonder pg
Speaker 1: NY knows that it has California hostage here. It is
Speaker 1: the biggest utility, biggest energy providers, so you know they're
Speaker 1: not going to be allowed to fail. The fact that
Speaker 1: they drew down their entire credit line and basically said
Speaker 1: all right, we're at risk of bankruptcy now forced their hands. No. Well,
Speaker 1: I think, uh, it's a good question whether they're they're
Speaker 1: that tough and cynical to be playing it that way.
Speaker 1: You know, they're they're not. They're not hedge fun guys, right,
Speaker 1: you know, they're not necessarily uh, they're kind of hopefully
Speaker 1: running it for the long term. And also the reality is,
Speaker 1: you know there's an example, Well, if if they're running
Speaker 1: it is for the long term, I want to come
Speaker 1: in there, because if they are, they're not doing a
Speaker 1: very good job. And it's mean in terms of what
Speaker 1: sort of taxpayers are on the hook for in California,
Speaker 1: they're not gonna be allowed to fail. They're they're struggling
Speaker 1: for sure, But look at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: even if it's the utility's fault, I mean, even if
Speaker 1: they did something drastically wrong. There's a couple of realities
Speaker 1: that California has to do with. One is the people
Speaker 1: got burned out have to get compensated in some way,
Speaker 1: so that could be in the multiple billions of dollars.
Speaker 1: The other is you have to sooner or later have
Speaker 1: a financially viable utility. So to say, even if you
Speaker 1: say it's their fault, to say, well, they have to
Speaker 1: pay twenty or thirty billion dollars doesn't compute because then
Speaker 1: you don't have a utility that can continue to operate.
Speaker 1: Kit if you just for the sake of argument, put
Speaker 1: aside all of the inverse condemnation liabilities, the potential fifteen
Speaker 1: billion whatever it is, what's the financial operation of p
Speaker 1: g N like Well, aside from that, the financial operation
Speaker 1: is fine. But you know, keep in mind, regulated utilities
Speaker 1: are entirely the creatures of the regulators, So their profitability,
Speaker 1: their cash flow is completely dependent on what the regulators say.
Speaker 1: It is. So if the regulators raise rates, then their
Speaker 1: earnings and cash flow go up. If they cut rates,
Speaker 1: they go down. If the regulators say, you don't have
Speaker 1: to pay these apparent liabilities, then you don't if you
Speaker 1: do so. So when people say, well, what's the company
Speaker 1: really worth? Aside from all of this, it completely you know,
Speaker 1: it completely depends on what happens with the regulators and
Speaker 1: whether they want to let it go bank rupted or not.
Speaker 1: That's that's the end of the the end of the
Speaker 1: day what you have, and right now regulators are saying,
Speaker 1: we don't want you to go bankrupt. Kit Connolledge, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Kit Connolledge's senior
Speaker 1: Industrials and Utilities analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence PG and E
Speaker 1: has more than twenty two billion dollars of debt. Their
Speaker 1: prices on those bonds are rising today, although PAM I
Speaker 1: do have to wonder going forward if perhaps bond investors
Speaker 1: are not going to be as forgiving with some of
Speaker 1: these companies that can whip them around with different proclamations,
Speaker 1: if there is a situation like this that occurs. Brexit
Speaker 1: has been on the brink for a long time, but
Speaker 1: things seem to be heating up with the potential deal collapsing.
Speaker 1: Theresa May now Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, trying
Speaker 1: to retain her control over Parliament and get this sort
Speaker 1: of deal through before the deadline. Joining us now, Brandon Brown,
Speaker 1: chief economist and head of economic research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities,
Speaker 1: joining us here in our eleven three oh Studios Brunday,
Speaker 1: Can we just talk about what the pound is currently
Speaker 1: pricing in what scenario our markets saying seems most likely
Speaker 1: right now? There are two scenarios, and I think the
Speaker 1: main scenario it's being priced in is that somehow this
Speaker 1: appeasement deal is going to get through, and most likely
Speaker 1: it'll get through because there will be some cross of
Speaker 1: crossing of our support from the Labor Party um to
Speaker 1: support the deal despite for Brexit opposition, with Brexiteer opposition
Speaker 1: within the Conservative Party, and why Labor would support the
Speaker 1: deal is that if the Conservatives go along with this,
Speaker 1: they are a major risk of losing a lot of
Speaker 1: our nationalists working class support and this will probably sink
Speaker 1: for Conservative Party for the next generation. So Labor would
Speaker 1: really do well out of it. And in many ways
Speaker 1: I think what the pound is pricing in it is
Speaker 1: suspecter of a far left government under Mr Corbin. Now
Speaker 1: there is a there is a better scenario, scenario number two,
Speaker 1: where Churchillian type figure maybe that an exaggeration emerges in
Speaker 1: in some sort of leadership challenge in the next few weeks,
Speaker 1: says that enough is enough. The Europeans have treated us terribly.
Speaker 1: They haven't ready sat down in good faith and negotiated,
Speaker 1: and the best we can do is reach some interim
Speaker 1: and deal for the next year and then we're away,
Speaker 1: out out and under w t O rules, and that
Speaker 1: would salvage a Conservative party possibly or rarely a lot
Speaker 1: of nationalists support, and they may even win a general
Speaker 1: election one year down the road. Well, the French Finance
Speaker 1: minister said earlier today that well, he said that British
Speaker 1: politicians who campaigned for Brexit, he described them quote as liars.
Speaker 1: Does that help May actually reach an agreement with her
Speaker 1: own party as well as with Parliament. Absolutely not. But
Speaker 1: if you ask me what the main failure in the
Speaker 1: homemade strategy has been, it has been right from a start,
Speaker 1: not doing everything possible to get a US deal, because
Speaker 1: once they realize that the Europeans were going to be
Speaker 1: totally obdurate, as they have been in Germany and France,
Speaker 1: the obvious strategy was to take the advantage of an
Speaker 1: anti German president of the United States, anti EU, pro
Speaker 1: British to do a deal and fundamentally aligned Britain with
Speaker 1: all American interests and policies in the Middle East and
Speaker 1: everywhere else. And May has totally failed to do that instead,
Speaker 1: in fact, she's gone for the opposite. She's been backing
Speaker 1: m mercle on Iran and all these other issues that
Speaker 1: purposely to annoy President Trump. So I want to shift
Speaker 1: focus from Europe to the United States because what's moving
Speaker 1: markets today in in large part is FED Vice chair
Speaker 1: Rich Clarida his comments about getting to neutral and the
Speaker 1: possibility of perhaps raising rates less frequently than previously thought
Speaker 1: because of some of the head winds to growth and
Speaker 1: the fact that you are seeing a little bit of
Speaker 1: slowing given that you just wrote this book, the Case
Speaker 1: against two percent inflation, Do you think that the FED
Speaker 1: needs to slow down now and not hike very much
Speaker 1: at all to get to neutral in order to sort
Speaker 1: of normalize, or do you think that there's still room
Speaker 1: to run. We'll let me say one or two things.
Speaker 1: Nobody knows what neutral interest rates, let alone Federal Reserve officials.
Speaker 1: And secondly, nobody knows where we are in the business cycle.
Speaker 1: If you study any fifty or hundred year period or
Speaker 1: twenty year period, the record of Federal Reserve fine tuning
Speaker 1: and knowing exactly where we are in the business cycle
Speaker 1: is appalling, and probably at the moment, with a cheerlead
Speaker 1: leader for Trump Economics as the chief of the FED,
Speaker 1: he's probably tending to exaggerate the strength of the economy.
Speaker 1: I mean, my view is that the growth cycle upturn,
Speaker 1: which started in the early two thousand and sixteen in
Speaker 1: the US and globally under the influence of radically easy
Speaker 1: monetary policy, has become tired, and most likely the global
Speaker 1: growth slow down out iv United States has now been
Speaker 1: joined by the United States. That is a dangerous period
Speaker 1: because growth cycle slowdowns do sometimes go into recessions and
Speaker 1: sometimes do bring about asset inflation. So we are at
Speaker 1: a dangerous moment. I just want to note that your
Speaker 1: new book is entitled The Case Against two percent Inflation
Speaker 1: From negative Interest Rates to a twenty one century gold Standard.
Speaker 1: Do you see that happening? Well, A century is a
Speaker 1: long time in twenty one century? What what I what
Speaker 1: I do think is that the two percent inflation standard
Speaker 1: is going to blow apart sooner than most people think,
Speaker 1: even although there's not any effective political opposition to it.
Speaker 1: And it's probably going to blow apart because in risk
Speaker 1: global slow that global slow slow down, inflation everywhere is
Speaker 1: going to be well below target, including in the United States.
Speaker 1: I think the next phase of monetary development is going
Speaker 1: to be currency war. It's going to be monetary a
Speaker 1: new period of monetary chaos in the way of the
Speaker 1: US will react to a global slowed down global slow
Speaker 1: down is going to be stepping up quite justifiably action
Speaker 1: against current its manipulators in Europe, Japan, and China. We
Speaker 1: look forward to you in the future guiding US through
Speaker 1: those issues. Thank you very much. Dr Brendan Brown. He
Speaker 1: is the chief economist and head of economic research for
Speaker 1: Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He's also the author of the case
Speaker 1: against two percent inflation from negative interest rates to a
Speaker 1: one century gold standard. We have an expert in the
Speaker 1: world of food, Adnan Durrani. He is the founder and
Speaker 1: the chief executive of Saffron Road and he has a
Speaker 1: diverse and storied list of experiences in the food industry.
Speaker 1: For example, he managed to sell what was at the
Speaker 1: time the second largest bottled water company in the Northeast.
Speaker 1: It was acquired by cot Averages. I'm speaking about Vermont
Speaker 1: Pure and Crystal Rock. And he joins us here in studio.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for being here. Thank you very
Speaker 1: much for having me. It's honor to be on your show.
Speaker 1: Tell us a little bit about halal food and Saffron
Speaker 1: foods and how this all came together. Give us a
Speaker 1: little of your history. Sure so, uh, I'm kind of,
Speaker 1: I guess, both a serial immigrant and a serial entrepreneur.
Speaker 1: And this started with the idea of the Silk Road,
Speaker 1: which was you know, went all the way from Italy
Speaker 1: to Asia and celebrated a hundred different cultures on that road,
Speaker 1: and so we thought, let's create a journey. Let's create
Speaker 1: a brand around Royal cuisines where they can be used
Speaker 1: as an enlightenment tool to bring together people of different faiths,
Speaker 1: different ethnicities, different cultures and celebrate their cuisines. And so
Speaker 1: the zafron was the main spice used on the Fron Road.
Speaker 1: So that's how it really came together as kind of
Speaker 1: a social model. And halal food, you know, is is
Speaker 1: a huge business outside US. It's a two trillion dollar
Speaker 1: industry outside US. And halal has to do with not
Speaker 1: only how was it harvested, but how the animals treated
Speaker 1: while they were living. It's very similar to kosher. But
Speaker 1: we knew that there was a very strong demographic in
Speaker 1: US for that, and that's why we launched that. That's
Speaker 1: not our core consumer necessarily, it's one of the elements
Speaker 1: of our brand. Well, yeah, that's what I was gonna say.
Speaker 1: When I think of Saffron Road, I think of major supermarkets,
Speaker 1: I think of whole foods, I think of you know,
Speaker 1: aisles where it's not just people who are looking for
Speaker 1: halal food, but they're looking for Middle Eastern food. They're
Speaker 1: looking for Indian food. So can you talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about your distribution, your expansion, especially now as there's
Speaker 1: a more nationalistic tone in the United States. Very good question, Lisa. Yes,
Speaker 1: we started out obviously serving the Helala community, which is
Speaker 1: around six or eight million American Muslims. Very educated. It's
Speaker 1: not like you have in Europe sent higher education than
Speaker 1: the average American as well as very high income. So
Speaker 1: it's it's really when you think about your technology engineers
Speaker 1: and all of that, that's really the demographic that's here.
Speaker 1: So that's a marketer's dream, right, But our consumers are
Speaker 1: not even ha consumers. There are consumers that are part
Speaker 1: of the natural organic movement or what we call NASH
Speaker 1: natural Organic, sustainable, healthy living lifestyle today. Food in our opinion,
Speaker 1: especially millennials who are about sixty or seventy pc of
Speaker 1: our demographic, look at food tribes and so we're part
Speaker 1: of this natural organic food tribe. And this is my
Speaker 1: fourth food company in the natural organic sector. One of
Speaker 1: them was Stony Field Farms yogurt I mean I for
Speaker 1: thirty years have been devoted to businesses that are social
Speaker 1: responsible to the environment, and so we say journey to
Speaker 1: better and what we mean by that is journey to
Speaker 1: better ethical values around food. Journey that's a better for
Speaker 1: the farmer's journey that's better for the the animals of livestock,
Speaker 1: and journey that's better for the food system that brings
Speaker 1: you really healthy food. So since that's our starting point,
Speaker 1: we were able to distribute nationally. We're in twenty thousand
Speaker 1: stores all over the country, all fifty states. We're the
Speaker 1: only national hall band as well. But that's because of
Speaker 1: our standards. Uh. You know, Whole Foods was our initial partner.
Speaker 1: We were the first uh non JEMO verified TROS and
Speaker 1: nottre in the world. We're the first certified humane entree
Speaker 1: in the world. So what we were doing was really
Speaker 1: trying to lift and elevate the ethical values around food
Speaker 1: that's offered in the supermarkets today. There are many legacy
Speaker 1: brands that are having trouble in the food aisle and
Speaker 1: in the what I would call the frozen case, the
Speaker 1: frozen aisle, because frozen food it doesn't it gets a
Speaker 1: bad rap. But you've been very successful in that line
Speaker 1: with your entrees, with your balls, you make it very
Speaker 1: clear no antibiotics. Ever, how is that business doing and
Speaker 1: tell us how yours is different than many of the
Speaker 1: well known legacy brands. Sure, that's a very good point, Biman.
Speaker 1: What's happened in the food industry, And having been in
Speaker 1: this industry thirty years, I never thought I'd see this
Speaker 1: happen in my entire lifetime. But last year, Boston Consulting
Speaker 1: Group in IRI but out of study that said that
Speaker 1: forty of the growth of the eight hundred billion dollar
Speaker 1: food and beverage industry is coming from small brands. That
Speaker 1: was a shocker. That was a wake up call. It
Speaker 1: was a wow moment. I think for the big CP Geese,
Speaker 1: they're not succeeding because they haven't pivoted into this category
Speaker 1: in a mindful, authentic way. What we do is we
Speaker 1: don't just you know, we don't just come up with
Speaker 1: these certifications as a marketing element, although it's a smart
Speaker 1: marketing element if you're authentic to it, it's because that's
Speaker 1: that's our value system. And so millennials today are very viral.
Speaker 1: They go online, they check out everything about the brand,
Speaker 1: they check out everything about the products. So you have
Speaker 1: to be bulletproof in terms of transparency, which a lot
Speaker 1: of big CPGs aren't. We've been able to disrupt and
Speaker 1: become a modern challenger brand. We single handedly lifted whole
Speaker 1: food sales in frozen National Organic for the last four
Speaker 1: years about a year um and most of the other
Speaker 1: brands were suffering terribly. Now a lot of the big brands,
Speaker 1: the CPGs have started to pivot into this category and
Speaker 1: they're getting zoomer. Package goods companies have started to really
Speaker 1: pivot into this category in a in a good way,
Speaker 1: and they are cleaning up their products. That's part of
Speaker 1: our mission right is to really it's also to bring
Speaker 1: them along, you know, to really change the foods system
Speaker 1: because a lot of what they're looking at us through
Speaker 1: the river view mirror. We keep looking forward how to
Speaker 1: completely lift our standards every year. You know, when you
Speaker 1: talk about being sustainable, I think about some of the
Speaker 1: effects of climate change that we've seen recently. Has there
Speaker 1: been anything yet that has forced you to change your
Speaker 1: supply chains as a result to UH as a result
Speaker 1: of change in weather. Absolutely, we're always looking for partners,
Speaker 1: whether it's the farms resourced from or whether it's a
Speaker 1: particular vendors that we choose that are dedicated to the
Speaker 1: same values that we're dedicated to so for example, UH,
Speaker 1: we we have a line of very successful organic snacks,
Speaker 1: chickpie snacks. We're the only ones that are fair trade certified.
Speaker 1: We have a dark chocolate and dark chocolate chai. I
Speaker 1: brought them for you and him to try to sample. UH.
Speaker 1: We also look very carefully at what are their standards
Speaker 1: around UH labor, what are their standards and their facilities,
Speaker 1: and we do audits on them. So we're very careful
Speaker 1: with that. We also think that you know, we we've
Speaker 1: been changing our packaging and there's a big movement towards
Speaker 1: more environmental packaging as well. Is the is the halal
Speaker 1: food more expensive? Because we talk about organic food being
Speaker 1: more expensive than non organic food. Is there a real
Speaker 1: price point difference? Halal is not quite there yet because
Speaker 1: kosher is um because when the Kosher certifiers and the
Speaker 1: Ruth scholars came here, they did a wise thing for
Speaker 1: years ago, they set some standards. Right now, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of different standards. I think halala still in early stages,
Speaker 1: even though it's a pretty huge market. UM. So I
Speaker 1: think once they set those standards will start to see
Speaker 1: the price movement upward. But right now there's a slight premium.
Speaker 1: It's not really that significant. The more significant is really
Speaker 1: the natural organic sustainability. Thank you so much for being
Speaker 1: with us. Really a pleasure having you at Non Drani,
Speaker 1: founder in chief executive of Saffron Road, long time entrepreneur
Speaker 1: and uh and traveler, and and really the flavor is
Speaker 1: getting into stores around the country and around the world.
Speaker 1: Paym Definitely interesting to sort of see how even if
Speaker 1: there is sort of more protectionist rhetoric, there is an
Speaker 1: ex more expansive taste for different cultural foods. So that's
Speaker 1: something that is sort of a uniting factor topic Brexit.
Speaker 1: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has just named the pro
Speaker 1: Brexit Stephen Barkley as her new Brexit secretary. He his
Speaker 1: remit will be to concentrate on preparing legislation, while talks
Speaker 1: between the European Union and the United Kingdom will be
Speaker 1: handled by May's team in her Downing Street office. Now,
Speaker 1: this basically strips the Brexit Department of a key part
Speaker 1: of its job. Here to tell us more about what's
Speaker 1: going on with Brexit is Terres Raphael Bloomberg Opinion editor. Terres,
Speaker 1: a pleasure to have you with us. Coming to us
Speaker 1: from London. Your most recent column about Brexit says, the
Speaker 1: problem isn't Theresa May, it's Brexit. What do you mean, Well,
Speaker 1: it's not to say that Theresa May hasn't made a
Speaker 1: whole lot of mistakes in the last two years since
Speaker 1: triggering uh, well year and a half since since triggering
Speaker 1: Article fifty. But you know, the the key problem here
Speaker 1: is that Britain has to make some pretty big compromises
Speaker 1: if it wants both access to EU markets and the
Speaker 1: um you know, freedom from EU rules and institutions. It
Speaker 1: really can't have both. Now, May's mistake was sort of
Speaker 1: telling both remainders and levers that they could have mostly
Speaker 1: what they wanted, and not quite being clear with them
Speaker 1: that that there would be some tough decisions to be made.
Speaker 1: And now you know that time has run out. She's
Speaker 1: got a deal back from Brussels. Everyone is upset about it. Yes,
Speaker 1: everybody is upset about it. Does that mean it's a
Speaker 1: good deal? Um, I don't think. I don't think anyone
Speaker 1: can really call it a good deal. What what we
Speaker 1: could say about is it's probably the best she's going
Speaker 1: to get and it is far preferable UH to have
Speaker 1: this deal than to have no deal at all, because
Speaker 1: no deal at all, um is you know, it's a
Speaker 1: disaster for the UK economy. It literally means, you know,
Speaker 1: planes don't take off unless um, there are some very
Speaker 1: last you know, minute agreement's made. It means you know,
Speaker 1: stockpiling medicines. Um. It's a whole lot of uncertainty and
Speaker 1: a and a whole lot of grief. So you know,
Speaker 1: this is this is a deal that you use offering. Uh,
Speaker 1: they don't want to talk any further about it. There
Speaker 1: may be some very marginal concessions left to be wrung out.
Speaker 1: Some in May's cabinet are now working to see if
Speaker 1: they can go and try to salvage this in a
Speaker 1: way they could sell it to Parliament. But this is
Speaker 1: pretty much as good as it gets for her now.
Speaker 1: And the question is can she sell it to her parliament.
Speaker 1: Based on your reporting and your conversations with people close
Speaker 1: to the whole Brexit negotiations, do you believe that Brexit
Speaker 1: is being used as a political weapon against the Prime
Speaker 1: minister and that, as you said earlier, this is as
Speaker 1: good as it gets and she was handed a pretty
Speaker 1: lousy hand of cards to play. She did not call
Speaker 1: the Brexit referendum. Did she know? And in fact she
Speaker 1: was a Remained supporter. She wasn't an enthusiastic Remains supporter.
Speaker 1: But once that vote, um, you know, was decided, it
Speaker 1: went for Leave and she became Prime Minister. She said,
Speaker 1: I'm going to deliver the best Brexit I can. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's no doubt this is political Dominique rob her Brexit secretary, resigned,
Speaker 1: having taken the job to negotiate the deal, having stayed
Speaker 1: on while that deal was being negotiated, having accepted while
Speaker 1: she presented it to cabinet, And you know, there are
Speaker 1: a lot of people out there think, well, you know,
Speaker 1: he he resigned thinking that it's not going to go
Speaker 1: through Parliament and he wants to be party leaders. So
Speaker 1: they're political machinations mixing with this huge generational, historical, uh
Speaker 1: decision change that Britain is going through. So it's it's
Speaker 1: very hard to separate the two. And it's, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of what complicates the whole thing. British public opinion.
Speaker 1: Give us a window onto what the British population thinks. Okay,
Speaker 1: so the public opinion seems to have been shifting recently,
Speaker 1: and there was a poll out recently that showed an
Speaker 1: eight point shift towards remaining. So if you were to
Speaker 1: have a straight in out vote right now, uh, many
Speaker 1: people think that it would go the opposite way, and
Speaker 1: maybe by a larger margin than eight. The problem with
Speaker 1: that is you don't really know what people are going
Speaker 1: to do until you call a vote and you have
Speaker 1: a campaign and a lot there's a growing sort of
Speaker 1: chorus of voices saying, let's have a second vote. But
Speaker 1: what do you ask? Do you put a remain option
Speaker 1: on the ballot, and that would be you know, completely
Speaker 1: unacceptable to brexitters, who said, well, you know, the people
Speaker 1: have already told us what they want, they want out.
Speaker 1: We can't then ignore the first vote. So do you
Speaker 1: put a deal or no deal option on the ballot,
Speaker 1: in which case Parliament and says, well, what if they
Speaker 1: vote no deal? It's always possible because you don't know
Speaker 1: how this is going to play out in campaign, So
Speaker 1: it's a tricky question. I think it's not impossible it
Speaker 1: will get to another referendum, but I don't really see
Speaker 1: the way through now, given the difficulty and figuring out
Speaker 1: what's on that ballot. Just give you about twenty seconds
Speaker 1: terres Tony Blair coming out today talking about Brexit. He
Speaker 1: says it's the worst of both worlds. Does that help
Speaker 1: Theresa May at all? PIM Tony Blair would get a
Speaker 1: standing ovation if he was on Capitol Hill right now.
Speaker 1: He has not loved in Britain. Um, it's there's actually
Speaker 1: a real it's almost when he speaks out, Um, it
Speaker 1: really hurts his cause. Uh, maybe that's mellowing a little
Speaker 1: bit of a Former Prime Minister John Major has also
Speaker 1: been speaking out, but I'm not sure it helps that much.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for being with us as always,
Speaker 1: Terres Raphael Bloomberg Opinion Editor. Once again, the news is
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