1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well as the jobs data confirmed 8 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: this morning, the labor market remains very tight in the US. 9 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: To get a sense of what is going on underneath 10 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: the headline data, we turned to Becky franko Witz. Becky 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: is a president of Manpower Group North America. She joins 12 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: us from on the phone from Chicago. Becky, thanks so 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Just looking at the headline number, 14 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: obviously two hundred and sixty three thousand jobs added, unemployment 15 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 1: remains low, wages percolating. If I were to take a 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: look across the U S, what I see a labor 17 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: market that is fairly consistently strong across the US or 18 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: are the pockets of strength end or weakness? Yeah, so 19 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: you would definitely see with the kind of record unemployment 20 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: we're seeing, you'd see strength across all thirteen sector sectors 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: of the economy, so from transportation, utility to durable goods manufacturing. 22 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: You know, we're seeing double digit intention in hiring, intention 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: to hire, and we're seeing that play through is BLS 24 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: reports every month, So very strong across the economy. So, Becky, 25 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: one of the things, you know, I think we've all 26 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: noticed over the last ten plus years is kind of 27 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: the growth of this gig economy, people kind of doing 28 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: their own thing. You go into any Starbucks, it seems 29 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: around the country, and you know, most of the people 30 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 1: are sitting there at their computers open and they're doing 31 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: something and they stay there for hours on end. Does 32 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: the data accurately collect and accurately reflect those people in 33 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: the economy that part of the workforce, which seems to 34 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: be growing. Yeah, So what I can tell you is 35 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: it's definitely. We're definitely seeing grows. Obviously, that's the business 36 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: that we're in, and we call it the consumerization of talent. 37 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: So just like we're shopping on Amazon, consumers want to 38 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: work when, where and how they choose to and to 39 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: your example, that could include Starbucks, that can include remote working. 40 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: We did an assessment of non wage benefits. You know, 41 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: the wages are definitely under pressure, and the number two 42 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: most popular non wage benefit is reduced flexible time and location. 43 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: So people are looking to work when, where and how 44 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 1: they choose. It's an interesting Just yesterday, Lisa Brahma, what's 45 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: my co host and I we were out in San 46 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: Francisco at a real estate conference there and a lot 47 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: of the folks there were saying, you know, not just 48 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: in San Francisco the Bay Area, but one of the 49 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: big challenges for figuring out where to locate a business 50 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: is talent and that there's this never ending talent shortage. 51 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: You know, what what do you think businesses can do 52 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: should be doing to navigate around this talent shortage. Yeah, 53 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: so a couple of things. First, we all have to 54 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: be you know, I have to open the aperture to 55 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,959 Speaker 1: bring people in from the sidelines. So if you look 56 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: at average unemployment, you know, we hit three point six 57 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: percent today, by the way, the lowest since we in 58 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: America put a man on the moon. So it's it's 59 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: truly historic like that reference how true to nine truly 60 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: historic reference. Um, But we have to open the aperture 61 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: because there are still pockets. So if you look at 62 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: African American unemployment, it's covering right below seven percent. That 63 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: would bring in over half a million people into the 64 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: workforce if we just got African American unemployment down to 65 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: the national average true for people with disabilities covering right 66 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: below eight percent. So we have to open the aperture 67 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: and bring people in. The second and we're increasingly seeing 68 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: this is having employers relax the requirements around education or experience. 69 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: So we know, traditionally on any job description, it's four 70 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: year college degree desired, you know, NBA preferred something like that, 71 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: and there are many many skill trades that do not 72 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: require a four year degree, do require some type of certification, 73 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: but don't require a four year college degree. So we're 74 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: increasingly having those conversations and clients are starting to respond. Right. 75 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: One of the things that's uh, you know, certainly been 76 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: an issue in the labor community, in the labor force 77 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: and how the labor force is being deployed is automation 78 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: and the impact automation is having on some some traditional 79 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: jobs within the US economy and maybe just splacing, uh, 80 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: some sectors of the labor force. How do you think 81 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: corporate America is doing with kind of integrating automation and 82 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: then to whatever extent needed kind of retraining those displaced workers. 83 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: How do you think the US business is doing there? Yeah, 84 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: so first I would say the conversation has shifted and 85 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: we would say, as it needed to, from a robot's 86 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: going to take my job to how can companies help 87 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 1: human beings augment technology? Um, so we're starting to see 88 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: that that conversation shift among among companies. We just did 89 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: a survey of eleven thousand U S employers and we 90 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: asked the simple questions and not a ten year view, 91 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: but a two year view for the next two years, 92 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: how's automation going to impact your hiring? Of American employers 93 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: said they will maintain or increase hiring. And interestingly enough, 94 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: those that are automating the fastest, we're actually hiring the most. 95 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 1: And so we definitely see that automation will come in 96 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 1: and automate tasks, will see jobs shifting from things at 97 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: a routine into higher order human capability, and there were 98 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: there are definitely new job being created. So you know, 99 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: we're seeing it happen today. This isn't a tenure horizon, 100 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 1: but we're also seeing new, totally new jobs to be created. 101 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: One of the things in terms of dealing with some 102 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: of the labor shortage that a new term I hadn't 103 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,119 Speaker 1: heard before is encore workers. What is an encore worker? 104 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: I love that term, so we're I mean, it's it's amazing. 105 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: So you know, I know, there was some speculation today 106 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: on workforce participation and there with speculation, you know, it 107 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 1: went down because boomers retiring. So what we are seeing 108 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: is boomers in America are experiencing job gains at two 109 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: x there share the population, so yes, they are retiring, 110 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: and then they're moving into encore careers, so not interested 111 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: in working you know, necessarily in the same company or 112 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: the same um in the same seventy hour work week, 113 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: which we're you know seeing finally productivity started moving, so 114 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: that was great to see today as well. But they're 115 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: moving into encore careers things that are different, things that 116 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 1: they have passion on, but still paid positions. So we're 117 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: very excited about, you know, the the re employment of 118 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: boomers in America. That's very very interesting. I think at 119 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: some point I might be thinking about that. Thank you. Franco. 120 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: It's president, Manpowered Group North America, dialing in from Chicago. 121 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: We appreciate your commentary today here on Jobs Friday. Well, 122 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: it is early May, which means it's that time a 123 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: year again for the Berkshire Hathaway Annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. 124 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: Widely anticipated, however, CEO Warren Buffett may face some tough 125 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 1: questions about the company's lagging share price. To dig into 126 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: what we might hear from this weekend's meeting, we welcome 127 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 1: David Deets. David's a founder, president and chief investment strategist 128 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: a point View Wealth Management from Lovely Summit, New Jersey. 129 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: We also welcome Peggy Collins, investing team leader from Bloomberg News. 130 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: She joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. David, 131 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: let me start with you. What do you think is 132 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: the most pressing message for Mr Buffett to get across 133 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: to his shareholders this weekend. Well, I think that it's 134 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: ultimately gonna be there will be life after Warren and 135 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: uh Charlie Munger depart from the scene. People are always 136 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: looking forward. I think right now some of the Buppet 137 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: premium has escaped from the stock. There is concerns as 138 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: to what the future might hold. So I think he 139 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: has to lay uh has to allay concerns over what 140 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: that would look like. So, Peggy, I know you've gone 141 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: to this meeting in Omaha for several years. Just give 142 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: us a sense of kind of what the ambiance is there, 143 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: what's what's it like to actually go and be there. 144 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: It really is incredible, I have to say so every 145 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,679 Speaker 1: year that I've gone, I think of it and um 146 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: related to almost like a rock concert, except there's no 147 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: music and there's no interactive graphics. It's basically two old 148 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: guys kind of sitting on a stage and people line 149 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: up starting at like four in the morning, and that 150 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: is no joke. And then when they open the doors 151 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: around seven or eight am, it is literally people run 152 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: into the indoor stadium to try and to see as 153 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: close up to the stage as possible, and then they 154 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: truly sit there and answer questions for hours. They say 155 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: every year, we don't get these questions in events, and 156 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: it's a round robin between some media and journalists and 157 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: analysts and then they throw questions to the audience. But 158 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: they do it for about six hours. It's incredible, that 159 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: really is. I mean, you don't see that obviously, you 160 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: don't see that anywhere else. I don't think in corporate America. 161 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: Dave David, I know you've attended this UH conclave for 162 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: many years, specifically this year. Um, maybe one of the 163 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: most recent transactions we've seen from the company is this 164 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: acquisition of Amazon. What do you make of that? Yeah, 165 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: it's quite interesting. I mean, you know, Warren Buffett has 166 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: he praised on Jeff Bezos and Amazon for years, talking 167 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: about what a skilled businessman he is, but he's also 168 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: said he's an idiot for not investing in Amazon. Now 169 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: finally we found out that there has been investment there. Um, 170 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: I think you can reconcile it by saying that we've 171 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: learned that it's by one of his lieutenants, either Todd 172 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: or Ted. It wasn't by Warren Pops himself. Of course, 173 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 1: they also know this company very well because Berkshire, Hathaway, Amazon, 174 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: JP Morgan have a consortium where they're trying to address 175 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: spiraling healthcare calls. Yeah, exactly, so Peggy another you know transaction. 176 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: It's funny when you when we have this, we know 177 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: the meetings coming in May, and a lot of you know, 178 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: Berkshire watchers kind of tell us, oh, watch, there could 179 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,959 Speaker 1: be some announcements in the weeks or maybe month before 180 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: in terms of big investments or big deals, and this 181 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: year was no different. We had Oxidental Petroleum receiving a 182 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: ten billion dollar investment from Berkshire. What do you make 183 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 1: of that foray into the energy space. It's interesting because 184 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: one of the things I thought of this week when 185 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,319 Speaker 1: the reports were rolling out was essentially that in some 186 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: ways it is Buffet style, right. He does look a 187 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: lot at big things in the economy that he thinks 188 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: are going to be there forever. So whether it's owning 189 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: a lot of Coca Cola stock, for example, because he 190 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: believes that, you know, that will be a consumer staple 191 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: for a long time, or it's railroads. I mean people 192 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: often get that he's made a big bet on railroads 193 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: over over the years as well. So oil is it's 194 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: just you know, a major thing in the economy, but 195 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: of course it is in flux right now in terms 196 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: of renewable energy and things like that. So it's interesting 197 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: to see that he's doing this through financing and not 198 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 1: necessarily making a call or a bet on a specific 199 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: oil provider or company. He sounds like he's, you know, 200 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: the banker to the oil patch. You're getting an apercent coupon, 201 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: which is very Warren Buffett esque, I guess, exactly similar 202 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: to what he did with some of the banks after 203 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: the financial crisis, exactly, and that's when his money was 204 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: needed the most. So David just finally here thinking about 205 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: the balance sheet. Here, you know, I'm looking at the 206 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal and you know about billion dollars worth of 207 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: cash and equivalence on the balance sheet for Berkshire Hathaway. 208 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: What do you think they should do with this cash? Well, 209 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: that's the central question, because that could really drive returns 210 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: going forward. Usually there's three things. One is too as 211 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: Warren Popper would say, bag and elephant. But is he 212 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: kept has kept saying for years now. It's not that 213 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: easy when you have that much cash to put to work. 214 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: There's only a few potential targets. He won't get into 215 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: a contested takeover battle. So that's one item that people 216 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: are gonna be looking at. The other two things, of course, 217 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: is buying back stock and paying a dividend. Now, the 218 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 1: last one he has consistently said no, but look for 219 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 1: a dividend to be paid once he's no longer in 220 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: charge of the situation in terms of buying back stock, 221 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: it makes all the sense of the world. He's talked 222 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: about doing it, we haven't seen much activity. Many investors 223 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: are asking him to buy back five billion a quarter, 224 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: and I think that could really choose the stock interesting. 225 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,079 Speaker 1: It seems like I don't know how you spent billion dollars. 226 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: Doesn't seem to be a big elephant out there. But 227 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: David Deet's founder, president, chief investment strategist Point View Wealth Management, 228 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: joining us on phone. Thank you so much. Peggy Collins, 229 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: investing team leader for Bloomberg News as well here in 230 00:11:49,080 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Interactor broker studio, thank you for joining us. Well, 231 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: the markets have been digesting a significant amount of data 232 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: this week, including FED policy statement from earlier this week 233 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: and of course today's better than expected jobs data to 234 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: get an assessment of the big picture. We're fortunate to 235 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: have our next guest, Christina Hooper, Christina's chief global market 236 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: strategist for Investgo. She joins us here in a Bloomberg 237 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: Interactive broker studio. So, Christina, thank you so much for 238 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: joining us. Boy two hundred sixty three thousand jobs, was 239 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: it just a monster print? What was your takeaway from 240 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: the jobs data today, Well, it's great to see such 241 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 1: consistency and strength as well. Now we've got a six 242 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: month running average of over two hundred thousand non farm payrolls, 243 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: so there's a lot of good stuff in there. Um. 244 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: There are certainly a few areas that could be better. Manufacturing, 245 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 1: for example, is disappointing, and I think that is a 246 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: reflection of the US China trade war and ongoing issues 247 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 1: with tariffs. Um. But in general, it's a really strong 248 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: job jobs report and it's not hard to find a 249 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: lot of it's hard to find a lot of issues 250 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: with it. Yeah, exactly. So that kind of ties in 251 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: with I guess the feds assessment of how things are going. 252 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: I think the FED, if they probably sat back today 253 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: Chairman Palance said, see, I told you things are going 254 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: pretty well. I'm we're kind of negotiating a soft landing, 255 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: decent growth, moderate inflation. So what is your take on 256 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: what you think the FEDS next move could be. Well, 257 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: I think what the FEDS next move is going to 258 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: be for a long time is nothing. Um, it is 259 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: already in a position where it has curtailed I would 260 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: argue prematurely, uh normalization it's curtailed balance, it's curtailing balance normalization, 261 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 1: it's also curtailing a normalization of rates, and so I 262 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 1: would expect it to be in a holding pattern for 263 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,599 Speaker 1: a long time, especially given what we're seeing with productivity 264 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: that we aren't going to have uh inflationary pressures. But 265 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: at the same time, UM, it's fairly clear that FED 266 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: policy see that if we were to lower rates, it 267 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:07,079 Speaker 1: isn't going to increase inflation because productivity is improving. UM. 268 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: It's interesting. One of the things that certainly spooked the 269 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: market if we think way back to kind of December, 270 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: one of the many things that was out there was 271 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: some of the geopolitical risk, whether it's Brexit and the 272 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: slowing growth in Europe or China. China and the trade 273 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: talks and so on. What is your sense of kind 274 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: of where those kinds of risks are today, because we 275 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: don't hear too much about them here in well, we 276 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: don't hear about them, but certainly they are very much present, 277 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: and I would argue growing what we're seeing is these 278 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: twin trends of economic nationalism and populism, and that's really 279 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: manifested itself. For example, in US trade policy, but we're 280 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: also seeing far more of it in places like Europe. 281 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: We just got the UK local elections yesterday UM, which 282 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: showed that there's a lot of unhappiness UM with Brexit UM. 283 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: There was a rejection of mainstream parties, but in a 284 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: sense that was probably the most pro EU UM vote 285 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: we've seen this year. Instead, what we've seen is just 286 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: more of a push towards populism and nationalism and a 287 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: move away from the EU. And that's you know, I 288 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: guess what we've seen in some of the economic data 289 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: of the European Union that has not generally been well received. 290 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: I mean we've seen I guess, slow and growth in 291 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: Germany even absolutely. I mean, there are problems in the 292 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: European Union, and I think it's complicated by uh changes 293 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: in leadership at the e c B. It's going to 294 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: be hard for Mario Draggy to do anything this year 295 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: that I think really stimulates and helps support the economy 296 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: in Europe and also gives businesses confidence, just given that 297 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: he's a lame duck e c B leader and he's 298 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: going to be finishing his term at the end of October, right, 299 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: so coming we were about I guess seventy five percent 300 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: or so the way through the earning season here for 301 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: the first quarter, Uh, I guess coming in a little 302 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: bit better than expected. Maybe that's just because the bar 303 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: was so low. What's your takeaway from what we've seen 304 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: so far in earnings, Well, that's just the bar has 305 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: been so low that the response on the part of 306 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: investors on markets has been fairly positive. UM that it 307 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: is good enough this earnings season, especially in light of 308 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: the FEDS really dramatic about face this year in terms 309 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: of getting so much more accommodative and curtailing normalization. So 310 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: given where we are, we've got, you know, decent earnings 311 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: that looked like I guess for the remainder of the year, 312 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: we have the FED on the sideline. Yes, we're late 313 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: in the economic cycle ten years plus. Where are you 314 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: thinking about in terms of opportunities for the market. Where 315 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: are you suggesting that people really think about it in 316 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: terms of twenty nineteen going to the next following year. Well, 317 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: I first would say that this is an environment that's 318 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: going to favor risk assets just because of the FEDS 319 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: change in stance. So my overarching view is that UM 320 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: risk assets remain attractive, including of course equities. Now having 321 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: said all that, I do think we have to worry 322 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 1: about increased volatility. There's certainly a mismatch between market expectations 323 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: and for example, what the fed UH plans to do, 324 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: or at least we've seen that historically. We also have 325 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty in other parts of the world, 326 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: and quite frankly, we also have to watch the U 327 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: S economy. While things look great UM, we've gotten some 328 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: concerning UM warning signs. Now uh, just a few data 329 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: points does not a trend make, but we've seen a 330 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: disappointing UM readings from the I S M manufacturing, is M, 331 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 1: non manufacturing UM. We've seen two weeks of higher initial 332 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: jobless claims, all of which can be explained away as aberrations, 333 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 1: but we want to follow that closely in case they're not, 334 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: in case they're suggesting some kind of slowdown. But in general, 335 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: this is an environment the favors risk assets, but we 336 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 1: want to be well diversified. We want to have exposure 337 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: to lower valuation. We want exposure to areas of really 338 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: strong growth. While the US is growing nicely UM, there 339 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: are parts of emerging markets that are growing UM UM 340 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: much faster and so we want to have exposure there. Yeah, 341 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: I was just I was just thinking about emerging markets 342 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: because it's when people say they're you know, they're they 343 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: have an appetite for risk, that that naturally leads me 344 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: to think about emerging markets. And so you know, and 345 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: that's something I know people look at emerging markets a 346 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 1: little bit different, like what's an emerging market? What's not 347 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: an emerging market? How much risk am I willing to take? 348 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: Kind of how do you how is invested viewing the 349 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: emerging market space? Well, we're positive on it in general, 350 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: but we would argue this is a time to be 351 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: selective and discerning. This is not time to UM just 352 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,160 Speaker 1: throw oneself into an index, but instead look for those 353 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: opportunities UM. And there are a lot of opportunities in 354 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: particular in Asia E m Um, China, Thailand, Vietnam, India. Uh, 355 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: those are places where we can find some really attractive 356 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: opportunities UM with high growth levels. So I'm guessing you're 357 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 1: watching the US China trade negotiations carefully. Oh? Absolutely, What 358 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: would you expect? I mean, I think we're getting a 359 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: May June maybe announcement. So my expectation is that the 360 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: US is very eager to get a deal done for 361 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, and China is very interested in 362 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: not making a lot of concessions. And that's been clear 363 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: really by all the stimulus they've thrown into the economy 364 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: to support it so it can get through these negotiations. Um, 365 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: So my expectation is that we'll see minor concessions from China, 366 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: and China actually may get a big win in this 367 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: reciprocal enforcement agreement. That seems to be at least that's 368 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: what the you know, the reports are that that will 369 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: be part of the ultimate agreement. Now that's a short 370 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: term win, but it could provide headaches for years to come, 371 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: headaches for years to come. Yeah, it seems like the 372 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: question really is when you think about the China trade deal, 373 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 1: will it be a you know, kind of a headline 374 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: type of trade negotiation or will be something more substantive 375 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: And that remains to be seeing. Christina Hooper, Thank you 376 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 1: so much to Christina is a chief Global market strategist 377 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: for Investco. Joining us here in New York on our 378 00:19:50,840 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: Bob eleventh three Yeoh Studios. Well, the fallout from the 379 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: Mulla report continues as Attorney General General William Barr testified 380 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: before a Senate committee earlier this week. To get a 381 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: sense of what the impact is of this ongoing issue, 382 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: we turned to Chris lou Senior fellow at the University 383 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 1: of Virginia Miller Center. Chris is also a former Deputy 384 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 1: Secretary Labor under President Obama. Chris, thanks so much for 385 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 1: joining us. First of all, I just want to get 386 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: your sense of what you thought of Attorney General bars 387 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: testimony in front of the Senate and then his unwillingness 388 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: to appear before the House. What is your take. Well, look, 389 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: I think it's certainly right. He raised a lot of 390 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: questions in this testimony, and you could sense the frustration 391 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 1: from Democratic members. Uh. You know, obviously you look at 392 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: the testimony through your own partisan lens, and that's unfortunate. 393 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: This should be the Attorney General of the United States, 394 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 1: and I think far too often in his testimony he 395 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 1: looked more like the president's personal defense lawyer. I think 396 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,360 Speaker 1: ultimately all of this back and forth doesn't get settled 397 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 1: until the Special Council tests devised, and I believe that 398 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: will probably be in the next couple of weeks in 399 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: the House. So is it some Democrats actually calling for 400 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: Attorney General bar to resign or even be impeached. Is 401 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: this even appropriate or possible? Well, I think if he 402 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: does not testify before the House, he will certainly be 403 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 1: held in contempt of Congress. Uh. And you know that's 404 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: not something to be taken lightly. Although it doesn't on 405 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 1: its own carry a huge punishment. I think this is 406 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 1: part of a broader standoff between the White House and Congress. 407 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: And you see this playing out not only with the 408 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 1: Attorney General's testimony. Uh. You see it with the Treasury 409 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: departments failure to turn over the present's tax releases. There's 410 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: an ongoing investigation of White House security clearances that's gotten 411 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: bogged down in back and forth fighting as well. And 412 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: so uh, you know, from Democrat's perspective, this looks like 413 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: across the board white House obstruction. This is a president 414 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 1: who said he's going to fight all of these investigations, 415 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: and so normally uh, there is some kind of accommodation 416 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 1: and both sides reach a compromise. It will be interesting 417 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,639 Speaker 1: to see if that happens here, given the bad blood 418 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: on all sides right now, So, christ you mentioned that 419 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: you thought Mr Mueller would testify in front of Congress 420 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: in the next several weeks. But it sounds like there's 421 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: really far apart on that. How do you think this 422 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: will play out in terms of getting Mr bar in 423 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: front of presumably the Democratic controlled House. You mean Mr 424 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: Barr and Mr Muller. I'm sorry, Mr Mueller, Thank you, 425 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: Mr Muller, Right. You know, I think at this point 426 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: the negotiations are happening between the House Judiciary Committee Chairman 427 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: Nadler directly with uh. Mr Mueller. UM. He in the past, 428 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: he's not a he's not a talker, so I think 429 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: this will be a challenging testimony. On the other hand, 430 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 1: based on the letters that he has sent to the 431 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: Attorney Journal, UH, he really feels frustration disagreement with the 432 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: way that his report has been characterized, so he has 433 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: an incentive, I think, to to to be more forthcoming 434 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: about this. The other broader challenges that there's still material 435 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: in the Mueller report, UH that probably can't be disclosed 436 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: in an open setting, in particular of those that are 437 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: related to grand jeury materials. So Chris Let's shift gears 438 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: a little bit to the Federal Reserve Board. Another tough 439 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: week for the administration. UM, I guess the FED picks 440 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: Steven more dropping out of the running kind of raising 441 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 1: questions here is what's what's kind of going on at 442 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: the White House in terms of vetting. Uh, these candidates, 443 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 1: you could argue they're they're over four at this point. Yeah, 444 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 1: this is an unfortunate pattern with this administration. You know, 445 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: you've got a president who I think far too often 446 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: makes his personnel pics based on how somebody appears on 447 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 1: TV or in the case of Steven Moore, you know 448 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: some favorable of eds that he wrote, uh, and then 449 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 1: prematurely announces those decisions before any vetting happens. Uh. And 450 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: then in Evin, really damaging information comes out and the 451 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: nomination has to be withdrawn. If you talk to people 452 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 1: who have been in previous White Houses as I have, 453 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: there is an exhaustive vetting process that happens before anyone's 454 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: name is typically put forward. Uh. You know when I 455 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 1: was nominated to be the Deputy Sector of Labor. Uh, 456 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: they vetted me for months before my name was even 457 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: put out there. Um, that's the smart procedure to avoid 458 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: situations like this. But again, you've seen that time and 459 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: time within this administration. So what role can the Republicans 460 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,399 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill do to try to make this a 461 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: better process for the Republican Party and for this administration. 462 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: Is there any role for Congress and say, listen, work 463 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: with us. We can help you here, you know, and 464 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: you can clearly sense the frustration on Senate Republicans. You know, 465 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 1: a good example is Uh, Senator path to Me from 466 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania was out there defending Stephen Moore just the day 467 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,439 Speaker 1: before he um he withdrew his nomination. So you know, 468 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: no one wants to be put out there sending nominees 469 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 1: like this, and you know, as trying to be loyal 470 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: to the president, they feel their obligation to do that, 471 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,639 Speaker 1: even though privately they'll tell you and the concerns that 472 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 1: they have, and actually they were very public about their concerns, 473 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 1: not not only involving Stephen Moore, but also involving Herman King. 474 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: Do you think the White House will come back with 475 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 1: a more traditional pick for these two open spots? You know, 476 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: I hope. So, I mean, these are jobs that should 477 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: not be seen as partisan jobs. You want qualified people there, uh, 478 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: and I and you And with both of these picks, 479 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: you either saw ideal logs or people who don't necessarily 480 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: have the kind of monetary background that would be necessary 481 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: in this type of job. So I am hopeful, but 482 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: again it's hard to always tell with this president who 483 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 1: catches this fancy. So Chris, just finally, I want to 484 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: just switch gears again to the Democratics UH nomination. Here 485 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: the crowd gets ever bigger. Appears that some polling data 486 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 1: came out recently that showed a former Vice president Joe Biden, 487 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: in the lead. Do you consider him to be the 488 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: front runner for the Democrats? I absolutely think he is 489 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: the front runner, although I take these polls with a 490 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 1: grain of salt. At this point. They largely measure name recognition, 491 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: and I don't want to diminish that because name or 492 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 1: recognition is an important part about UM getting elected or 493 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,199 Speaker 1: getting certainly nominated and getting elected. But I think, you know, 494 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: we are a long long way away. UM. You know, UM, 495 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: there's gonna be an increasing challenge on candidates to raise money, UH, 496 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 1: to sustain the large operations that that they're now building 497 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: in these early states. We're gonna have the first set 498 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: of UH debates in June and July, and that will 499 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: create a winnowing process. So UH, you know, these polls 500 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: are interesting, but I'm gonna wait till the end of 501 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: the summer, right before Labor Day, and I'll think we'll 502 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: have a much better sense of word of this race 503 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: will be Chris Leu, thank you so much. Chris lewis 504 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center, 505 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 1: at the home of the n C Double A basketball 506 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: champions this year. I'm sure Chris is aware. Chris is 507 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: also a former Deputy secret Area of Labor under President Obama. 508 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: Thanks Chris for so much for joining us here. A 509 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: lot of news obviously coming out of Washington, and Chris 510 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 1: is certainly a great person to kind of help us 511 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: piece it all together. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 512 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 513 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 514 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm 515 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 1: Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woyits 516 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 517 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio