1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 2: High stakes negotiations in Busan, South Korea between Presidents Trump 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 2: and She. This was a chance for both sides to 4 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 2: stabilize relations after some rocking months thanks to Trump's agree. 5 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 3: On Thursday, Presidents Donald Trump and Shihin Ping of China 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 3: reached an agreement a one year truce in their trade war. 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: I thought it was an amazing meeting. He's a great leader, 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 2: great leader of a very powerful, very strong country, China. 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 3: She, through an interpreter, said he and Trump didn't always 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 3: see eye to eye, but they had found a way forward. 11 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 4: You and I at the helm of China US relations 12 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 4: should stay the right course and ensured a steady sailing 13 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 4: forward of the giant ship of China US relations. 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 3: The agreement capped six contentious months, starting when Trump announced 15 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: his global tariffs and threatened retaliatory arabs as high as 16 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty five percent. The highly anticipated meeting 17 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 3: between Trump and She in South Korea started with a 18 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 3: long and awkward handshake. 19 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 2: We're kind good to see you again. There seemed to 20 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,639 Speaker 2: be some chemistry between the two men. They were shaking 21 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: hands at the doorway. Trump even went in and whispered 22 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: something to Shiji Ping, who knows what he said. 23 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: John lou is Bloomberg's executive editor for Greater China. He's 24 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 3: based in Beijing. He says the agreement, which brought China's 25 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 3: tariffs back to where they were roughly when Trump rolled 26 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 3: them out earlier this year, buys China some breathing room. 27 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 2: While I think China is happy that there can be 28 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: a trade truths for maybe the next twelve months, I 29 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: think the concern that ultimately the United States is trying 30 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: to put the strategy in place that would restrain China's 31 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: rise is going to continue to be at the forefront 32 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: of Shiji Ping and these leadership's minds. 33 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 3: Brendan Murray is Bloomberg's Global Trade editor, and he says, 34 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: now that the meeting is over, it will be fascinating 35 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 3: to see how news of the agreement is received in 36 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 3: Beijing and DC. 37 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: I do think that there will be some people in 38 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: Washington who will look at this as China getting the 39 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: better of Trump, given the breakdown of the concessions that 40 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: each side gave up. So now we'll hear the debate 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: about the actual substance. If what we're seeing is a 42 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: truce for the next twelve months. 43 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 3: I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from 44 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 3: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, parsing the details of 45 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 3: the new US China trade agreement and why both countries 46 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 3: are moving forward without a permanent deal. Thursday's agreement marks 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 3: a temporary truce in a US China trade war that 48 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 3: President Trump set off in April. I asked Bloomberg's Brendan 49 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 3: Murray and John lou to dig into what each country 50 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 3: won and law in the agreement. 51 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: Here's Brendan, So here's the scorecard that I've been keeping. 52 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: The US concessions. The US is lowering fentanyl tariffs from 53 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: twenty percent to ten percent. The US is suspending this 54 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: fifty percent expansion of its US entity list, the ownership 55 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: list that so irritated the Chinese a few weeks ago. 56 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: The US is backing away from the one hundred percent tariff 57 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: threat that President Trump put out there a few weeks ago. 58 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: China's reciprocal tariff rate stays at ten percent for another year, 59 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: and they're suspending ship fees. Both countries are, but that 60 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: was much more damaging to China than it was to 61 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: the US. So those are the US concessions. What China 62 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: gave up its rare earth controls, the most extreme of 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: which it announced a few weeks ago. It's suspending those 64 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: for a year. It says it's going to resume buying 65 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: American soybeans and potentially there's some energy deals to be 66 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: done there. It's going to crack down on the export 67 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: of the chemicals used to make fentanyl. And Trump said 68 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: that China agreed to some vague promises of investments and 69 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: then agreed to work on a solution for TikTok So. 70 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: I think any way you add those up, China comes 71 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: up a little bit, you know, giving up less than 72 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: what the US gave up. And I believe that the 73 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: Hawks in Washington would support that view. 74 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 3: John, as you here, Brendan described that scorecard. As he 75 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 3: put it, there are some things that these two leaders 76 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 3: didn't talk about. They didn't get into great detail about 77 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 3: these Nvidia Blackwell chips. Sounds like they didn't talk about Taiwan. 78 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 3: If you believe the President of the United States, how 79 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 3: surprising is that what wasn't talked about in Busan. 80 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 2: On the question of Taiwan. From what I've heard from 81 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 2: President Trump, he seems to be very aware of how 82 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 2: sensitive a topic that is and how potentially explosive on chips, 83 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: you know, I think China wants the Nvidia Blackwell chips. 84 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 2: If they could get their hands on the most advanced 85 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,359 Speaker 2: technology that's out there, they definitely would do that. Again, 86 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 2: I think it's some consideration of how likely it would 87 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: have been for them to get that, and if putting 88 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 2: too much, it's putting too much emphasis on that would 89 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 2: have meant giving up on something else. Ultimately, Beijing is 90 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: going to walk away feeling like it got a pretty 91 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 2: good deal, and going forward it's going to try to 92 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 2: hold the United States to what has been agreed to. 93 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: On that point, I mean, this is not a deal 94 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 3: that's going to continue in perpetuity. And Brendan, I think 95 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 3: I've seen this described as subscription diplomacy. You can kind 96 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 3: of analogize this to your Netflix subscription. You had this 97 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 3: three month pause on tariffs, and now you have a 98 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 3: year long pause on tariffs. It just keeps getting extended 99 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 3: and there's no kind of permanent resolution to all of this. 100 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 3: What does that mean for US China relations long term? 101 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 1: So, the Phase one trade deal that President Trump signed 102 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 1: in his first term. What they had achieved was a 103 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,239 Speaker 1: ninety page, multi chapter agreement that President Trump said would 104 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: transform the relationship between the US and China. So fast 105 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: forward to what we've seen come out of the latest 106 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: Shi Trump deal. We have a couple hundred word social 107 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: media posts from President Trump and basically a relationship that 108 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: is no longer based on something that's in writing, that 109 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,679 Speaker 1: will be based on a series of talks going forward. 110 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: And John, I'd be curious to hear your reaction to this, 111 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: but that really plays into China's strategy of let's just 112 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: kind of string them along and things can escalate and 113 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: de escalate, but we'll have this series of discussions rather 114 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: than something in writing that will abide by and the 115 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 1: two sides will kind of try to maintain some sort 116 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: of stability going forward. And given the volatility of the 117 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 1: temperament of President Trump, I'm not really sure that plays 118 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 1: into his strengths. 119 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 2: I think the fundamental relationship is one of rivalry and 120 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: I don't think any deal that is struck today or 121 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: in a year is going to change that. And what 122 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 2: it means is, yes, there's a truce, but at the 123 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,239 Speaker 2: same time both countries are using that time to try 124 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 2: and build up an arsenal that they can bring to 125 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: bear in the future. So I think we are inherently 126 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 2: going to have lots of volatility. We're going to have 127 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 2: deals that come together only to fall apart, because fundamentally 128 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: the two countries are at odds, are competing, and it's 129 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 2: not a relationship that lends itself to stability. 130 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 3: After the break, with many negotiations still in progress, what 131 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 3: does this US China deal mean for other countries still 132 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 3: stuck in the trade war With several issues unsettled between 133 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 3: the United States and China. I spoke with Bloomberg's Brendan 134 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 3: Murray and John lou about what's next. So it seems 135 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 3: like after this meeting, lower level officials advisors are going 136 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: to hammer out some of the details here. But there 137 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 3: was such a build up to these two leaders meeting 138 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 3: face to face, and I wonder if this is what 139 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 3: we're going to see going forward here the big decisions 140 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 3: are going to be made when these two men get together. 141 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 3: That's just going to be kind of the contour of 142 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 3: these conversations, the way that these countries deal with each 143 00:07:58,520 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 3: other going forward. 144 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: Leaderal leader, I think that's the way it will be. 145 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 2: We had this announcement by President Trump saying that he 146 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: was going to visit China in April, and the President 147 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 2: she would then do a reciprocal visit to the US 148 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: after that. We also know that China is hosting APEC 149 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: next year and the United States is hosting the G 150 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 2: twenty in Miami at the end of the year, and 151 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: so there's going to be a lot of opportunity for 152 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 2: these two men to get together. And I think that 153 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: just means that a lot of the problems that pop 154 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 2: up between these two countries will ultimately have to be 155 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 2: decided and resolved or sort of tempered by these two men. 156 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 3: In looking at the state of trade negotiations with the 157 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 3: US globally, Brendan has described them as fitting into different buckets. 158 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,359 Speaker 3: There's the first bucket, appeasement. 159 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 1: You've got basically countries that are just having to accept 160 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: the tariffs. 161 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 3: Then there's the second bucket, the kicking and screaming bucket. 162 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: Per se Canada is the perfect example. They've been back 163 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: and forth with the threats between the US and Canada 164 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: for months now. 165 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 3: Then the third bugget the country's putting up a fight. 166 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: And China, I think really has shown compared to at 167 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: least Trump's first term dealings with shijiping, that it can 168 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: play hardball the way Trump likes to play hardball. The 169 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: ability to use the threat of rare earths and China's 170 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: dominance with them really changed the game this year. The 171 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: US has a technology advantage and they will use that 172 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: as leverage over China. But China has this rare earth's 173 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,559 Speaker 1: advantage that really hasn't come to the fore the way 174 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: it has until now. So I think that that's really 175 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: where the game has changed. China has said you want 176 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: to play rough, we can play rough too, and everyone 177 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: else realized that, yeah, they can do some damage if 178 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: they want, or threaten it at least to get what 179 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: they want. 180 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 3: China's advantage on rare earth's is not going away soon. 181 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 3: Even with the US building up its capabilities and partnerships, 182 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 3: It'll be many years before it could conceivably replace China 183 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 3: as a supplier. Brendan give us a bit of context 184 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 3: here is you look at the long sweep of this 185 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 3: trade war. Is global trade now in a better place 186 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 3: than it was yesterday or a week ago, last year 187 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 3: or so. How has this meeting kind of changed the 188 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 3: way that this war is unfolding. 189 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, global trade has been pretty resilient through 190 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: all of this. I mean you could go back to 191 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: the first US China tariff conflicts in Trump's first term 192 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: through COVID and then the return of Trump with the 193 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: reciprocal tariffs kind of shocking every country, and trade has 194 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: held up pretty well. The World Trade Organization will tell 195 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: you that seventy five percent or so of trade globally 196 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: still runs by rules by low tariffs. But that number 197 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: is going down the more the US puts tariffs up, 198 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 1: and we'll have to see how long that that can 199 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: hold out. And remember President Trump went around he calls 200 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: them deals, but he's putting higher tariffs these countries in 201 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: Asia and they won't be liking it. So how long 202 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: will these countries be able to withstand the headwinds of 203 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: these higher tariffs. Once their industries start to suffer, they 204 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: then here comes the political pressure. So I think the 205 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: big question is, you know, we've seen over the past 206 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: half century or so free trade being used to ensure peace, 207 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: the peace dividend. If we've traded with one another, we 208 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: won't go to war with one another. Now President Trump 209 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: is using the threat of tariffs to tell countries to 210 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: not be in disputes, and so tariffs are being really 211 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: turned into something completely different than they have been for 212 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: the past fifty years. And I think we don't really 213 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: know how it's going to end up. But the economic 214 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: consequences are going to be slow, and perhaps they'll deliver 215 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: jobs in the US and investments, and you know, maybe 216 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: that's what will end up. But I think there's going 217 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: to be a lot of disruption and uncertainty in the meantime. 218 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 3: And I guess I should note here too, Brandon, that 219 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 3: even though this deal did knock the US tariffs down 220 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 3: by ten percent, the overall China tariff is much higher 221 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 3: than it was a year ago, about thirty percent on average, 222 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: according to Bloomberg Industries, with many products facing tariffs as 223 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: high as forty seven percent. 224 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, China is still something in the thirty percent range, 225 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: thirty to forty percent, and it will be more competitive 226 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: than it otherwise would have been with its manufacturing rivals 227 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: across Southeast Asia, which came in somewhere around the twenty 228 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: percent mark. But China has found markets for goods that 229 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: are no longer being bought by Americans and has maintained 230 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: that the question is is China going to export problems 231 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: to other countries that will have a backlash the way 232 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: the US has reacted. 233 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 3: And that getsuon my last question to you, John, we 234 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 3: see a country that is looking many years down the road. 235 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,319 Speaker 3: I think on the eve of this meeting, China announced 236 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,439 Speaker 3: its next five year plan will significantly boost the shriff 237 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 3: of Chinese consumerism, domestic consumption. Seems intentional to me. What 238 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:02,839 Speaker 3: is the strategy there on the Chinese part. 239 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: I think China sees it's dependence on trade as a weakness. 240 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 2: I think China has come away from the last you know, 241 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 2: eight to ten years believing that any dependency that can 242 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 2: be weaponized will be weaponized. And so, you know, Chinese 243 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: trade has been booming, as Brenda was saying, you know, 244 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 2: China's selling stuff to Europe, to Latin America, to Africa, 245 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,719 Speaker 2: around the world, and it's trade surplus, I think is 246 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 2: on pace for like one point five trillion US dollars 247 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 2: this year. I think there's a general recognition in China 248 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 2: that that is not a sustainable path forward, that that 249 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 2: is just going to peeve off all of their trading partners, 250 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 2: and so they are putting a lot of effort in 251 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 2: trying to develop a domestic consumer economy. The problem is 252 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 2: how do you do that? If they can do that, 253 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 2: and I think there are a lot of reasons to 254 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 2: think it's going to be a real challenge. 255 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: The other issue there is that Trump's political clock is 256 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: ticking a lot faster than China's on this, and China 257 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 1: has the advantage of time and they can drag this along. 258 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: President Trump needs to deliver something economically before the midterm 259 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: elections start heating up in nine months or so. So 260 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: I think the time is not on President Trump's side here, 261 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: and China plays a much longer game than the US does. 262 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 3: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 263 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 3: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 264 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 265 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 3: dot com slash podcast offer. If you like this episode, 266 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 3: make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever 267 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 3: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 268 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.