WEBVTT - The War In The Middle East: Dr. Jeff McCausland Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Israel's response, and there should be a response should not

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<v Speaker 1>be proportionate. It should be far stronger, because when the

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<v Speaker 1>turns fails to re establish it, you have to teach

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<v Speaker 1>the adversary that any gain they may hope to get

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<v Speaker 1>by any future attack will be more than outweighed by

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<v Speaker 1>the damage that will be caused.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh you recognize that voice, perhaps as John Bolton, who's

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<v Speaker 2>one of the hockiest of the hawks out there, former

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration dude. All the way he hates Trump. He says,

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<v Speaker 2>we get Israel has to hit back hard at Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and the administration has made it very clear they're the

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<v Speaker 2>exact opposite. You take the win, and if you try

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<v Speaker 2>to hit back, WI ain't going to help you.

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<v Speaker 3>For those who are busy watching the Masters or other fare,

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<v Speaker 3>over the weekend, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles

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<v Speaker 3>at Israel. The vast, vast majority of them intercepted and

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<v Speaker 3>did very little damage. But what comes next? Doctor Jeff mccauslin,

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<v Speaker 3>CBS News military consultant joins us now to discuss.

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff.

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<v Speaker 3>It's always a pleasure. How are you.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm doing very well and great with you guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's just start with the witch of those two approaches.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you like the Bolton approach or the Biden approach?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I'm kind of leaning towards the Biden proach quite

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<v Speaker 4>frankly at this take your moment. I mean, one has

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<v Speaker 4>to talk about using military force to what end. Mister Bolton,

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<v Speaker 4>who has known for a long time when had encounters

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<v Speaker 4>with it, has been a very hard and very conservative,

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<v Speaker 4>very hawkish kind of guy, as you described, and he's right.

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<v Speaker 4>You could argue that by doing a massive response this

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<v Speaker 4>serves to enhance the terrence for future and perhaps prevent

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<v Speaker 4>future war. You can make that particular argument, but this

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<v Speaker 4>will in this case, I would argue, Israel's got a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of war right now to take care of, and

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<v Speaker 4>so expanding this and going into another major conflict with

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<v Speaker 4>Iran might not be the most appropriate thing to happen

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<v Speaker 4>at the moment. You know, you do deterrence, as he

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<v Speaker 4>talked about, through punishment, That's what he's just striving. He

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<v Speaker 4>also did do deterrence through denial, and that's exactly what

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<v Speaker 4>the Israelis did, in which they really, in some ways,

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<v Speaker 4>I would say, made the Iranians look strategically kind of foolish.

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<v Speaker 4>When you fire three hundred drones, cruise missiles and ballistic

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<v Speaker 4>missiles and only a handful actually hit target, ninety nine

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<v Speaker 4>percent are destroyed, and then reality, Okay, we fired seven

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<v Speaker 4>missiles at a target in Damascus, they all hit target.

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<v Speaker 4>They killed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general officer whose deputy

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<v Speaker 4>and several others, and your effort of three hundred weapons

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<v Speaker 4>managed so far to kill one Palestinian girl. Might we

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<v Speaker 4>want to focus our attention on the war in Gaza?

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<v Speaker 4>Might we want to use this as an effort to

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<v Speaker 4>diplomatically isolate Iran even further and perhaps recruits some of

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<v Speaker 4>the loss we've had in the world community. Might we

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<v Speaker 4>actually want to use this as a leverage to encourage

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<v Speaker 4>the United States to move forward as quickly as possible

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<v Speaker 4>in providing US additional military aid. I think that might

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<v Speaker 4>be a better tack for the moment for the Israeli.

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<v Speaker 3>Government, Jeff. I think if you assume that Iran has

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<v Speaker 3>made its move, and this was the move, then I

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<v Speaker 3>can see that point of view a little more clearly.

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<v Speaker 3>But I've heard it suggested by some that this was

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<v Speaker 3>something of a test of Israeli air defenses. It's a

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<v Speaker 3>dry run address rehearsal if you will, and that a

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<v Speaker 3>multi front attack could be coming, and that's why you

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<v Speaker 3>wanted might want to exact a price from the Iranians

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<v Speaker 3>and let them know if we go tit for tat,

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to make every single level of this too

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<v Speaker 3>expensive for you.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>No, And you can certainly make that argument, but concerned

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<v Speaker 4>I would have with all the conflicts. If all these

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<v Speaker 4>other conflicts weren't ongoing, then that argument might become much

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<v Speaker 4>more persuasive. Your military forces are heavily engaged with the

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<v Speaker 4>about five fronts right now, you have a front and

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<v Speaker 4>gos I. You're facing a major offensive military operation Rofit.

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<v Speaker 4>You're facing a very high likelihood of having to make

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<v Speaker 4>a military incursion to southern Elebanon to drive Hitsviel off

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<v Speaker 4>far the north and allow eighty thousand Ukrainian or Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 4>forgive me Israeli refugees to return their homes. You've got

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<v Speaker 4>increasing violence on the West Bank groups that you need

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<v Speaker 4>to keep an eye on in Syria and elsewhere. You

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<v Speaker 4>got the Huthis down in Yemen. So should we take

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<v Speaker 4>on another conflict at this particular moment is the question?

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<v Speaker 4>We can respond certainly at a time and place of

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<v Speaker 4>our choosing. That's a phrase the Israelis used a lot.

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<v Speaker 4>Could that response be a massive cyber attack against Iran?

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<v Speaker 4>Israelis are capable of doing that. Could this be over

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<v Speaker 4>time a whole series of special operations missions by Israel

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<v Speaker 4>against targets in Iran have very possiblely done that in

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<v Speaker 4>the past. It killed off as Iranian nuclear scientists and others.

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<v Speaker 4>Might those the other ways are going about some kind

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<v Speaker 4>of a response over time.

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<v Speaker 2>Was this a real attempt by Iran to blow stuff

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<v Speaker 2>up and kill people in Israel? Or was it a

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<v Speaker 2>telegraphed gesture for all kinds of different political reasons that

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<v Speaker 2>they knew would be thwarted. Do you know some US

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<v Speaker 2>officials said yesterday that Iran was attempting a mass casualty event.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean fire three hundred weapons to somebody, it

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<v Speaker 4>seems to me to the attempt to do an awful

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<v Speaker 4>lot of damage. And you know, the idea we fire

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<v Speaker 4>three hundred weapons because we want we want to be

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<v Speaker 4>defeated and we want our military to kind of look

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<v Speaker 4>pretty badly and its employment does not seem to pass

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<v Speaker 4>to me the logic test. But perhaps that is the case.

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<v Speaker 4>So the Iranians has really try to argue that this

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<v Speaker 4>should be the end of this picure event. They have,

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<v Speaker 4>I guess, assuaged their honor for the killing of this

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<v Speaker 4>Iranian general and they've made a response. A lot of this,

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<v Speaker 4>don't forget, is not for public opinion at home, for

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<v Speaker 4>the Uranian people to say, what is our government doing

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<v Speaker 4>when we get hit? Well, we actually have done something,

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<v Speaker 4>and they'll try to describe it, I'm sure in the

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<v Speaker 4>public present or on as a major success. But I

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<v Speaker 4>do think it's a little bit of a stretch to

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<v Speaker 4>say we're going to fire three hundred weapons hoping we

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<v Speaker 4>don't hurt anybody, and by trying to do it in

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<v Speaker 4>certain ways that it precludes major damage to our opponent.

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<v Speaker 3>On CBS military analyst on the line, Jeff, I'm really intriguing,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think one of the most significant aspects of

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<v Speaker 3>this whole thing may be the fact that the Israelis

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<v Speaker 3>received significant help, intelligence and hands on guns from not

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<v Speaker 3>only the US, but a number of Arab countries as well.

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<v Speaker 3>Feels like maybe the dawn of a new relationship there.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, these people don't like Aroan. I was just at

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<v Speaker 4>a major series of meetings in Paris with some senior

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<v Speaker 4>folks kenicalon of golf and their biggest concern, their biggest

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<v Speaker 4>threat is are on. So there's no great love lost

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<v Speaker 4>there for sure. But at the same time, and this

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<v Speaker 4>is also a danger now they're protecting their airspace. The

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<v Speaker 4>Jordanians have spoken very loudly since his attack occurred that

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<v Speaker 4>they did intercept a number of these weapons as they

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<v Speaker 4>were heading towards Israel because they were violating Jordanian airspace.

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<v Speaker 4>Quite frankly, Saudi's may have provided some information in tracking

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<v Speaker 4>as well, and less clear about that. This signate is

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<v Speaker 4>a problem for Israel. If Israel is going to strike back,

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to violate their airspace as well, and I'm

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<v Speaker 4>not sure we would see them then, just were of

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<v Speaker 4>ignoring that, which would indicate they were actively involved in

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<v Speaker 4>an Israeli counterattack against Iraq, which might pull them into

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<v Speaker 4>that particular conflict. In fact, the jority of the Deans

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<v Speaker 4>have suggested, we defend our airspace. If it's Iranian missiles

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<v Speaker 4>heading westward, we're gonna shoot those down. But oh, by

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<v Speaker 4>the way, if it's Israeli missiles going eastward, we're want

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<v Speaker 4>to do the same thing. And for the Israelis, a

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<v Speaker 4>major response could be done to some degree using missiles

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<v Speaker 4>they have sun but the Israeli military force would be

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<v Speaker 4>I think more likely to try to employ aircraft. I

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<v Speaker 4>have thirty five in some type of series of air strikes.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a very complex operation based on the distances involved,

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<v Speaker 4>the country's airspace that you have to fly through, your

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<v Speaker 4>ability to do aerial refueling, which Israel has at best

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<v Speaker 4>a very limited ability to do so absent direct US involvement.

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<v Speaker 4>And the Biden administration has said, hey, we're going to

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<v Speaker 4>defend you, will help defend you, but we're not going

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<v Speaker 4>to participate directly. The United States is not going to

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<v Speaker 4>provide military forces. Three part and parcel of an Israeli counterattack.

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<v Speaker 3>Jeff mccauslin's CBS News military consultant, Jeff, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 3>for the time, good stuff.

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<v Speaker 4>Take care of guys, Armstrong and Getty