1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 2: Joe, I have an embarrassing confession. Go on, you know 3 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 2: the birth death adjustment. 4 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: I have the same confession. 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 2: I used to think it was something about like the 6 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: population of people and the labor supply, but it's not. 7 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 2: It's about business formation. 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: Yes, that's right. 9 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 3: Oh my. 10 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: My confession is even more embarrassing, which is that I 11 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: literally always forget what it is. I did a deadlist. 12 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader 13 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: at Citadel. 14 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: That is going viral. 15 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 2: Uh barges. 16 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: This is an after school special, except. 17 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 2: I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going 18 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 2: forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US. 19 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: Black goals. 20 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: These are the important questions that robots taking over the world. 21 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: No, I think that like in a couple of years, 22 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: the AI will do a really good job of making 23 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: the odd Launch podcast. One day that person will have 24 00:00:58,360 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: the mandate of Heaven. 25 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 2: How do I get more popular and successful? 26 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 3: We do have. 27 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: You're listening to lots more where we catch up with 28 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 2: friends about what's going on right now, Because. 29 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 1: Even when the Odd Lots is over, there's always lots more. 30 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 2: And we really do have the perfect guest. 31 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: When people are listening to this, it is jobs Day. 32 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: We're recording the September fourth, Jobs Day, September fifth. The 33 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 1: important thing to note right now is that, to some extent, 34 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: that monthly non farm payrolls report that everyone depends on 35 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: and relies on has never felt to me like more 36 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: of a moving target in terms of what I'm supposed 37 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: to be looking at. For many years. It's like, Okay, 38 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: how many jobs are created this month? Yeah, it's going 39 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: to get revised a little bit, but that tells you something. 40 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: Now between seasonality, post COVID sort of normalization that's still processing, 41 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: and then of course this sort of changes in immigration policy, 42 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: which have swung dramatically in the year. These numbers, it's 43 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: not clear that you actually have to put it in 44 00:01:58,040 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: some work to understand these, no totally. 45 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: And also, I mean the BLS itself seems to have 46 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: some difficulty with the numbers, because the trend that we've 47 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: seen is they put out a non farm payroll like 48 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 2: an initial estimate on a Friday, and then a few 49 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: weeks later you got the revisions, and the revisions always 50 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: seem to be downwards lately. 51 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: Lately they've been mostly downwards. And then there's annual revisions 52 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: and those are coming up, I believe next week. And 53 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: you know, we were at a time when setting aside 54 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,399 Speaker 1: the collection and of course setting it aside the fact 55 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: that the BLS chief has been fired and there's going 56 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: to be a new one at some point. Sitting outside 57 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: all of these things, we're also at a time when 58 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: there are significant questions about just the macro state of 59 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: the economy and whether the sort of low hiring, low 60 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: firing mode which is characterized for a while now is 61 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: at risk of deteriorating further. I don't know, it's a 62 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: tough read. 63 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 2: You know who we should ask Steve Englander. 64 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 3: Okay, but let me start with a broader question. Actually 65 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 3: may be excellent. And the thing is that the question 66 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 3: has changed. Like in the past, we used to say, okay, 67 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 3: last month or you know, last twelve months, NFP growth 68 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 3: was two hundred thousand, looks like one hundred thousand. Now 69 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 3: things have slowed down. That's all we had to know 70 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 3: this time around. Because supply is so important, everyone is 71 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 3: making an estimate and kind of saying, well, native born workers, 72 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 3: you know, maybe seventy thousand. If you're pessimistic, if you 73 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 3: think we have net immigration from foreign born workers, you 74 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 3: have a view of fifty. And if you think that 75 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: there's still some legal immigration coming in, maybe you're at 76 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: one hundred. And that means that getting the level right 77 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 3: is really important. And the problem with the NFP numbers 78 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 3: that actually has two components, one of which is the 79 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 3: one that we all think about. They survey about one 80 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 3: hundred and sixty thousand businesses maybe six hundred thousand establishments, 81 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: and basically say, okay, how many workers did you have 82 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 3: last month? How many did you have this month, And 83 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 3: through their statistical analysis they say, okay, this is a change. 84 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 3: So that's for firms that are in continual operation, gives 85 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: them that number. The problem is that they have no 86 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 3: handle on firms that have just opened and very little 87 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 3: handle on firms that have just closed. So they use 88 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 3: something called the birth death adjustment to adjust for employment 89 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 3: by those latter two categories of firms, you know, net 90 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 3: job creation from new firms minus closing firms. And the 91 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 3: problem is that they have a very simple model. And 92 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 3: it was fine in the past when all you cared 93 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 3: about was the direction, but now when you're saying it 94 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 3: really matters if NFP gross is fifty. Having a bias 95 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 3: in that number really affects things. And what you see 96 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 3: is that that number has through thickened sin has stayed 97 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 3: about one hundred thousand jobs. You know when you seasonally 98 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: adjust it, because they publish a not seasonal adjustment, but 99 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: you can do a rough and ready seasonal adjustment very 100 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 3: stable at about every month. One hundred thousand jobs or 101 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 3: almost one hundred thousand jobs are coming from that birth 102 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: death adjustment. In terms of what we see on Bloomberg 103 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 3: page Friday morning at eight thirty, we have another source 104 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 3: of information on that which lags but which is far 105 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 3: more accurate. This is something called the Business Employment Dynamics. 106 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: It lags by about eight months, but it's based on 107 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 3: the quarterly census of employment and wages. And what that 108 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 3: shows is that in twenty twenty four, like Q four, 109 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four stay to four quarters, both the employment 110 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 3: growth coming from continuing firms and continuing operation and the 111 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 3: employment growth from newly open firms let's just closed firms 112 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: they've tanked. So you're sort of looking at a reliable 113 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 3: source because it's not even a sample. This is the 114 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 3: entire population. They know what opened and what's closed, saying, hey, 115 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 3: there just isn't any significant jobs creation from newly formed firms, 116 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 3: and the and the p number keeps telling you that 117 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 3: there's one hundred thousand jobs coming from that. 118 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: This is already excellent. Next week we are getting yet 119 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,239 Speaker 1: another one of these QC quarterly. 120 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 3: Q what do you call it? I call it what 121 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 3: I call QCW. 122 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: Okay, we get a new qce W. That's the ninth, 123 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: September ninth, We get that, right, tell us what this is. 124 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: Let's walk through this part again in terms of what 125 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: is it that's high quality about this data, why we 126 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: expect it to show further downward revisions, and why there 127 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: continues to be the sort of downward bias in this 128 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: initial snapshot vers letter better insight. 129 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 3: Oh okay, First, NFP has a big sample, but it's 130 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 3: a sample. They're sampling errors and people who don't report, 131 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 3: and you don't know if there's a bias and who's 132 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: reporting who's not reporting, so there's always some inherent error there. 133 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 3: Qc W is basically the universe. It's not a sample. 134 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 3: They get administrative data from the Labor Department saying how 135 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 3: many people paid in the unemployment insurance and that's basically everybody, 136 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 3: because everybody does everybody who's working does pay unemployment insurance. 137 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 3: And and so when they come up with a number, 138 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 3: there's a bit of revision because there's sometimes some firms 139 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 3: don't report in time, but there's not much and that 140 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 3: it's very authoritative. And so if you sort of say, oh, 141 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: QCW and the Business Employment Dynamics tell us that in 142 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four there was almost no job creation from 143 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 3: newly opened let's just close firms, you believe it because 144 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 3: there's you're not going to get a better source. There's 145 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 3: no other source to that, and so that's why it's 146 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 3: used for the benchmark. It probably should be used to 147 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 3: re benchmark employment more frequently in the year because they 148 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 3: do publish it quarterly. But you know, when it comes out, 149 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 3: it's a big deal. And we think it's likely to 150 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 3: tell us that somewhere between seven hundred and fifty and 151 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 3: maybe one point one million jobs that's the overstatement between 152 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 3: Q one twenty twenty four and Q one twenty twenty five, 153 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: and that will knock off a lot in terms of 154 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: headline employment growth. The key point is that there's no 155 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 3: reason to believe that the bias is really shifted. 156 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 2: One of the other unusual things that's going on at 157 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: the moment is we have this new head of the 158 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 2: BLS installed by the Trump administration, and that new head 159 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 2: suggested initially that the BLS could just stop publishing jobs 160 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 2: numbers altogether, or maybe they could publish them less frequently, 161 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 2: like on a quarterly basis or something. Is the quarterly idea. 162 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: Maybe that's reasonable given the lag with the QCW data. 163 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 3: I think that they can do things that are far 164 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 3: less dramatic to improve the quality of the monthly numbers 165 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 3: because we do have some information that's relevant for jobs 166 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 3: creation by newly opened firms. Going back to business employment dynamics, 167 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 3: if you look at how job creation from existing firms, 168 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 3: continuing firms, and job creation from new firms move, they 169 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 3: tend to move together. The amplitude is different, but the 170 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 3: direction is very much the same. They can use the 171 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 3: sample data that they get from the one hundred and 172 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 3: sixty thousand firms six hundred thousand plus establishments that they 173 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: sample and say, look, if continuing firms are telling us 174 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 3: the job creation is twenty thousand a month, it's very 175 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 3: unlikely that job creation from new firms is going to 176 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: be one hundred. We can use a variety of statistical 177 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 3: methods to sort of make a guesstimth. It won't be perfect, 178 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 3: they will be a luck better. 179 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 2: Speaking of the new BLS person, Joe, I saw the 180 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: most worrying sentence in an analyst note. 181 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: Yesay, so. 182 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 2: The sentence was, I have it on my screen. The 183 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 2: sentence is because Trump has his own BLS person. Now 184 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 2: I don't necessarily see a bad number on Friday. 185 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: I don't know that pessimistic. I think, I don't know, 186 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: but I don't know. I don't have a view of 187 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: I don't have a view on this. But who said this? 188 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 2: I don't want to say, because I'm not sure it's 189 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 2: public or not. 190 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: But this is a notable person. 191 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 2: Yes, it's someone you know? 192 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: Actually okay? Fine? And not me okay, and not Steve, 193 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: not Stephen, let's talk about the conversation has focused on 194 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: these levels and pace of job creation and so forth. 195 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: We recently did an episode with Austin Goilsby, the Chicago 196 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: Fed President, and he was like, so much as a flux, 197 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: I'm not really looking at levels, And he called what 198 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,719 Speaker 1: he's like he use this term very dramatic, the four 199 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: horseman of truth. He's interested in rates. He's interested in 200 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate, which is still at four point two percent. 201 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: He's interested at the hiring rate, which we had the 202 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: Jolt support come out this week, it's at three point 203 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: three percent. He's interested in the firing rate, which I 204 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: think has still been fairly low. Maybe he's looking at 205 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: like the rate of wage growth. I don't remember what 206 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: the fourth horseman was in a time of volatility. What 207 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: do you think about this idea, like, let's just forget 208 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: about levels and just focus on rates because they don't 209 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: get revised as much. You go out and you ask 210 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: thousands of people are you employed or onmployed right now? 211 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 1: And if four point two percent say they're unemployed, that 212 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: is probably a reasonable proxy for whether people are employed 213 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: or not. 214 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 3: Right But Joe, if you turned out to be the 215 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 3: next person named to the flumc to board and you 216 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 3: see payroll number, it comes out at seventy five thousand, 217 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 3: like tomorrow's consensus. Is that a strong number or a 218 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 3: week number? 219 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: Well, there's some siting. I just look at the I 220 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: don't know, I mean, I don't know let's say so 221 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: right now, just for what it's worth, the unemployment rate 222 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 1: is at four point two percent. Economists expected to tick 223 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: up to four point three percent. Let's say it comes 224 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: in four point two percent. Let's say we have a 225 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: week NFP number, but the unemployment rate stays at four 226 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: point two percent. Why don't I say, okay, things are 227 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: still more or less fine? 228 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 3: Well, let me say this. I like grates, but I 229 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 3: like the employment the population ratio. Okay, because we know 230 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 3: that participation rate is cyclical, and if you look to 231 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 3: the employment the population ratio, all these comments that unemployment 232 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 3: rate is stable and it looks in balance nothing's changed, 233 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 3: they don't hold up very well. We've had pretty consistent drop, 234 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 3: not a two thousand and eight type of drop, but 235 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 3: you know, it's like over sixty a year ago, now 236 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: it's fifty nine point six. It's telling us that there's 237 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 3: kind of increased softening. I think you can't be choosy 238 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 3: about which rates you look at, but I think in 239 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 3: cyclical periods, probably employment to population is telling you more. 240 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 3: In this time, it is more on Waller's side than 241 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 3: it is on Powell side. 242 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 2: I know we've been talking about weaknesses in the NFP estimates, 243 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,199 Speaker 2: But what's your expectation for the official number? 244 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 3: Well, I wrote, we're a little bit split brained on 245 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 3: this left brain, right brain, because we live in a 246 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 3: world where we have to get the market reaction right. 247 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 3: So our forecast is seventy five thousands, very close to consensus. 248 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 3: You know, nothing dramatic. I'd just say this that you've 249 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 3: got to realize there's so much randomness in the number. 250 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 3: It could be one hundred and twenty five thousand and 251 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 3: not be meaningful. But it's just the way it goes. 252 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 3: You know what. We've argued. If you get the range 253 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 3: of forecasts, almost everybody is between like forty thousand and 254 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 3: one hundred thousand, one hundred and five thousand. So you 255 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 3: get a number like thirty, I think that will be 256 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 3: a very dramatic number in. 257 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 2: Terms of outside the range of expectation. 258 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, because this range is really tight in 259 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 3: terms of market expectation. And I think it would put 260 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 3: fifty on the table for the FED, because I think 261 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 3: the argument would be that if you get a number 262 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 3: that's so low, you probably should have cut in June 263 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 3: or July, and so you're not saying, oh my god, 264 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 3: the world's coming to an end. Everything's falling apart. But 265 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 3: you're saying, yeah, well, we kind of missed it. The 266 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 3: data weren't there at the time. In retrospect, had we 267 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 3: had those data, we probably would have cutt in June 268 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 3: or July. So we're just doing catch up now. Now. 269 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 3: For us, the real issue is how to interpret like 270 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 3: one hundred thousand, because we would say, okay, one hundred 271 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 3: thousand less, our bias of seventy thousand means real job 272 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 3: creation of thirty thousand, so you should be talking about fifty. 273 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 3: I don't think we've convinced the market yet that that's 274 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 3: the way you should look at it. 275 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: By the way, just before going on so on the 276 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: ECO page consensus is seventy five K. Consensus is for 277 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate to tick up to four point three percent. 278 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: Also average our early earnings of point three percent month 279 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: of a month growth, so that's sort of like what 280 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: we're looking at this week. We've had some sort of 281 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: soft data. We had initial claims today come in at 282 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: to thirty seven k. That was ahead of the estimate 283 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: of to thirty k. ADP employment take it or leave 284 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: it fifty four k versus estimates of sixty eight k, 285 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: down significantly from the one hundred and six k revised 286 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: last month. I had some services employment forty six point 287 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: five that was a little bit shy of expectations, so soft, 288 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: and there's this risk of softening. I just think it's 289 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: really interesting the range of possibilities for September, because you know, 290 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: we were just in Jackson Hole and you're talking about, oh, 291 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: maybe there's a case for fifty. But there's also still 292 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: a lot of residual concern about inflation, and the inflation 293 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: dragon has yet to fully be slayd. 294 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 3: The reason I would focus on the labor market is 295 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: because if it's as weak as we think it is, 296 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 3: in correctly measure the slack in the labor market what 297 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 3: they care of inflation. Okay, that the again I'm serve 298 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 3: more on Waller's side, that you're not going to have 299 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 3: any kind of power on the labor side. If I 300 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 3: can make one comment, I mean, some people get their 301 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 3: pleasure from banging their head against the wall. The walle 302 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: I bang my head against once or twice a year 303 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 3: is taking all of these incoming data on labor market 304 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 3: indicators and trying to predict nonfarm payrolls. 305 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 2: You've got to have a hobby. 306 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 3: You got to have a hobby, and this one might 307 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 3: be the definition of insanity. And none, none of them 308 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 3: work a bucket of spit. 309 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the band daid on your forehead. When 310 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: you talk about head against the wall for pleasure, you're 311 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: actually talking literally. 312 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 3: It would appear, well, you should see the wall. 313 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 2: Okay, okay. We would be remiss if when we have 314 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 2: you in the studio, if we did not ask about 315 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 2: what's going on with bonds. So one of the things 316 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 2: that's happening today is because of that softening jobs data 317 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 2: that Joe just laid out, we are seeing a little 318 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: bit of a recovery in bond because there's more expectation 319 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: that the Fed might cut. But the big story in 320 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 2: recent days has been this huge sell off in bonds, 321 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 2: particularly at the long end. And it doesn't particularly in Europe, 322 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 2: particularly in Europe, but also in the US. It does 323 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 2: seem kind of weird that we're talking about the economy 324 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: is slowing and meanwhile the long end of the curve 325 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 2: just keeps going up. What's going on. 326 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 3: Market's attention span is maybe not as long as you 327 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 3: give it credit for. And I think the problem is 328 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: this that you look at fiscal situations that are deteriorating 329 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 3: globally and likely to deteriorate in the US, especially if 330 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 3: anything happens with the tariffs to pull them back, and 331 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 3: markets are kind of saying, look, in the long term, 332 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: this doesn't look good. It looks like there's a lot 333 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 3: of borrowing out there. But the long term in market terms, 334 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 3: can be six weeks and it can be six years. 335 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: You don't know when those forces are going to matter, 336 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 3: so absent anything else, the market pays attention to it. 337 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 3: Then you sort of come in this week and every 338 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 3: number seems to be soft. You say, oh my god, 339 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 3: if Fed's going to cut, and all of a sudden, 340 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 3: this sort of selling of bonds, especially because the market 341 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: probably got reasonably short worrying itself about the fiscal situation, 342 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 3: they say, oh my god, maybe not so short, and 343 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 3: people are buying back the bonds that they've sold, and 344 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 3: you get the kind of dramatic movement we've seen this week. 345 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 3: We've argued in the short term, both facts and bonds 346 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 3: are going to be driven by the FED and the 347 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 3: US economy, and by short term I mean the next month. 348 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 3: They're six weeks I think once you get past that, 349 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 3: we don't think inflation is going to disappear. And even 350 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 3: outside of the tariff induced inflation, there's non tariff goods 351 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 3: and services seem to be at best stays steady and 352 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 3: maybe even edging up a bit. There's a bit of 353 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 3: fysical stimulus in Trump's fiscal package. Tickets possible that the 354 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 3: economy is not as bad as it might look based 355 00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 3: on the employment numbers that we're getting, especially if there 356 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 3: is a productivity pickup in the data that's not really recognized. 357 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 3: So we see a possibility, or we actually see more 358 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 3: than a possibility. We expect dollar weakness in the next 359 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 3: couple of weeks, but by the time we get to 360 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 3: the end of the year, we could see the dollar strengthening. 361 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 3: Positioning is kind of short dollars in our view, and 362 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 3: same with the bond market. You know, while the market 363 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 3: served saying, oh my god, last week was debating zero 364 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 3: on twenty five, this week, I suspect they'll be debating 365 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 3: twenty five and fifty. While the market's debating that bond 366 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 3: yields are going to come down. Once that's kind of 367 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 3: settled in terms of market expectations, I think they'll look 368 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 3: at the fiscal picture and kind of say, you know, 369 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 3: low four is maybe not. 370 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: It's interesting it occurs to me when you say, how 371 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: when we talk about how bad the economy is, that 372 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: there's actually two different ways of what bad could mean. 373 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: So one is bad could just mean a sort of 374 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: where you are on the cycle. We're in a deceleration cycle. 375 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 1: We're not creating as many jobs. Therefore we have to 376 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: have a lower rate of interest to get the going again. 377 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: But then bad could also mean more sort of qualitatively, 378 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 1: where what's really bad is slackening growth and also a 379 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: firm inflation picture, such that traditional measures of policy stimulus 380 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 1: or de stimulus don't work as well they'd like because 381 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: there is some sort of deeper rot. And it sounds 382 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,680 Speaker 1: like what you're saying, if I can put all of 383 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 1: this together, is that cyclically there's a slowdown. There may 384 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: be a case for fifty basis point cut very soon, 385 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: a case for lower rates, but not so bad in 386 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: the case of the US economy is broken and therefore 387 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: policy measures won't work to get it revived again. 388 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right. We actually don't think they'll 389 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 3: do much more than fifty. They'll say, okay, we've caught 390 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 3: up pint to weight and see and our baseline because 391 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 3: we're not yet sure about what the employment number is 392 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 3: is twenty five and stop. But you know we've been 393 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 3: talking about the choice being between twenty five and. 394 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: Fifty, just adding around one more. It really is just 395 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: on the Europe situation. We mostly talk about the US. 396 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: Like France has also so their ten year year old 397 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: has been shooting higher. 398 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the crazy thing. I think if we 399 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 2: didn't have everything that was going on in the US 400 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: at the moment, the France story would be huge in 401 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 2: the market. 402 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, so give us your talk to us about Europe 403 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: for a minute. 404 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, there's a France story. I'm actually scheduled to 405 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: go to France, but it looks like they might be 406 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 3: on strike next week, so I'm not sure how that's 407 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 3: going to play out. The structural problems that they face 408 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 3: are kind of enormous. I mean, the French deficits about 409 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 3: as large as the US deficit, and their interest rates 410 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 3: are way lower than US interest rates. They have a 411 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 3: very fragile government. They're trying to do some sort of 412 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 3: fiscal consolidation because it's like it's not just a minority. 413 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 3: It's like a tiny government. The opposition parties are kind 414 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 3: of saying no way. And so that's setting the US 415 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 3: aside the French, and broadly speaking, the European situation isn't 416 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 3: that good. And in some cases you're seeing sterling trade 417 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 3: like an emerging markets economy in that the correlation of 418 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 3: interest rates in the currentrency it is not the normal 419 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 3: g TN one where higher rates lead to a stronger 420 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 3: currency because people look at the return, the higher rates 421 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 3: are viewed as risk premium and they're associated with a 422 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 3: weaker currency. 423 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, you can look at levels sorry just 424 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,399 Speaker 1: to go. You can look at levels of debt to 425 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 1: GDP or ratios, et cetera. But it sounds like the 426 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: common thread here, at least to me. And this is 427 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: the bias or this is my legs. When you talk 428 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: about what's going on in French, maybe you won't even 429 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: be able to visit there because of strike. When you 430 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: talk about we had Liz Trust on the podcast recently. Politically, 431 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: these are not well functioning polities right now, are they? 432 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 3: Yes? And I'd say that the ability, particularly to get 433 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 3: through unpopular measures like fiscal consolidation is very limited and 434 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 3: That's why they're all sort of have their backs against 435 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: the wall, and the markets are looking at this and 436 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 3: kind of saying, you don't really have a source of 437 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 3: growth and you have to do austerity, but you're not. 438 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 3: So we're looking at these ratios and where they're going 439 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 3: to go. I think the one advantage the US has 440 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 3: is that here you know, at least you can ask 441 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 3: tell the story where you say, look, some of the 442 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 3: productivity numbers look pretty good on the ground, the sense 443 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 3: that AI is making inroads. We don't know when it's 444 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 3: going to matter in terms of actual realized productivity, but 445 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 3: it could. You can tell the story that's somewhat optimistic, 446 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 3: Whereas if you look at Europe, they kind of have 447 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 3: They have high energy costs, their capital markets aren't as 448 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 3: well developed for financing these kind of innovative firms, and 449 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 3: they're kind of lagging on the technology side. So the 450 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 3: battle seems to be between the US and China and 451 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 3: other countries sort of really lagging, which doesn't mean the 452 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 3: US outcome is going to be great, but at least 453 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 3: you can tell the story, whereas it's much harder to 454 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 3: tell the story a European story of say private sector 455 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 3: induced growth. 456 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 2: What's that line again, Joe. It's like the US innovates, 457 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 2: China iterates, and Europe writes the regulation. Can you remember that? 458 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 3: Yeah? 459 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: And they also get tons of vacation and they have 460 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: this amazing life. 461 00:22:58,560 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 2: And put out think piece. 462 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, but which sounds great. So many people would kill 463 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: for a job writing. 464 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 3: I lived in France for a number of years, and 465 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 3: I'd say the quality of life of the median French 466 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: workers well above that of the media and US worker. 467 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. We need to have some This 468 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:17,439 Speaker 1: is an important point. 469 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 3: You observe that, yeah, Yeah, and the question is whether 470 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 3: it's sustainable. It's like living on your credit card. 471 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: But need to regulate more. We need to instead of innovating, 472 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: let's try regulatet. 473 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: No, we should go we should go drink some wine 474 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 2: for lunch. 475 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, sounds great, great suggestion. 476 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 1: Lots More is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash Ol Bennett, 477 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 1: with help from Moses Ondam and kil Brooks. 478 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 2: Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is the 479 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: head of Bloomberg Podcasts. 480 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,919 Speaker 1: Please rate, review, and subscribe to Odd, Lots and lots 481 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 1: More on your favorite podcast platforms. 482 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 2: And remember that Bloomberg subscribers can listen to all our 483 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 2: podcasts at free by connecting through Apple Podcasts. Thanks for listening.