Speaker 1: It's a special covert show of the Iowa caucuses on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: We thank you for joining us.
Speaker 1: The race called early for Donald Trump, but we've got
Speaker 1: a long way to go here in figuring out second,
Speaker 1: third and the margins of victory. Bloomberg's Julie Fine joins
Speaker 1: us for more from the Iowa Election Center, where she's
Speaker 1: got her eyes on the numbers right now. Julie, how
Speaker 1: long do you think we'll wait to learn more?
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a while before we
Speaker 3: really determine second and third place because if you look
Speaker 3: at the numbers that have come in, they're in the
Speaker 3: smaller counties and they're smaller groups of people. So let's
Speaker 3: talk to our global audience a little bit. In a
Speaker 3: caucus situation, people come together and vote. The numbers that
Speaker 3: they're getting now are from smaller groups, from more outlying areas.
Speaker 3: You're going to need a big dump from Des Moines
Speaker 3: or the bigger cities to really get that picture on
Speaker 3: second place. And right now, the numbers are really showing
Speaker 3: that Governor Ron DeSantis and Governor NICKI Haley, the former
Speaker 3: ambassador to the UN, they're really locked in at seventeen percent.
Speaker 3: But again I really want a caution here, we're looking
Speaker 3: at just about one percent of the vote. So the
Speaker 3: former president right now is well above fifty percent. But
Speaker 3: to really dissect the seventeen percent, you're going to have
Speaker 3: to see bigger numbers from bigger counties.
Speaker 2: Now, the former president.
Speaker 3: Of course, Joe and Kayley we have talked about this,
Speaker 3: needed to make a very big number tonight to make
Speaker 3: a statement over fifty percent. Right now, he is there.
Speaker 3: So now again the race is for second place. What
Speaker 3: I'll really be watching is Sue County to see how
Speaker 3: that goes. For Governor DeSantis. You also have to really
Speaker 3: pay attention to Des Moines and the Des Moines suburbs
Speaker 3: to see where that plays out. For Nicky Hayley, those
Speaker 3: numbers appear not to be in quite yet. So again
Speaker 3: there is a long way to go in that race
Speaker 3: for second place. Now is something you really have to
Speaker 3: keep keep your eye on. Why you really have to
Speaker 3: keep your eye on that For the Governor of Florida,
Speaker 3: Ron DeSantis, his eggs are in the Iowa basket. If
Speaker 3: he does not do as well as Nikki Haley or
Speaker 3: their neck and neck here he goes to New Hampshire,
Speaker 3: where Hayley has really been putting on the press for
Speaker 3: votes and for the win. This is a critical, critical
Speaker 3: night for Ron DeSantis and for the Desandas campaign.
Speaker 4: Kaylee and Joe the Bourbon Vitory.
Speaker 5: All right, Bloomberg's Julie Fine at the election Center, thank
Speaker 5: you so much. Back with us now around the table,
Speaker 5: Rick Davis and Jeanie shan Zeno.
Speaker 4: So, Genie, she was just.
Speaker 5: Making the point there about how invested DeSantis has been
Speaker 5: in New Hampshire, how this feels, at least to many
Speaker 5: of us who have been watching it, like something of
Speaker 5: a make or break moment for his campaign. Even if
Speaker 5: he gets second place, if Trump's lead is commanding enough,
Speaker 5: can his campaign realistically move forward from here?
Speaker 6: You know, I think he probably will, especially he comes
Speaker 6: in second. But I do think it's a real uphill
Speaker 6: battle when we look at some of the models. You know,
Speaker 6: it becomes increasingly harder for either DeSantis or Haley if
Speaker 6: they lose in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire to get
Speaker 6: the number of delegates they need to beat Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: So I think it's an uphill battle for him even
Speaker 6: if he comes in second, because we talked about the
Speaker 6: fact he doesn't have much of a game in New Hampshire.
Speaker 6: He's going to try in South Carolina. He's not pulling
Speaker 6: well there. Nevada has been completely pulled out from under
Speaker 6: them due to what Trump has done there.
Speaker 4: So it's really.
Speaker 6: Really tough to see where he goes from here, especially
Speaker 6: even if he comes in second numerically and in terms
Speaker 6: of the actual percentage to lose counties, not when any
Speaker 6: which could happen.
Speaker 2: I think it's.
Speaker 6: Really hard to make the case that there's a pathway
Speaker 6: forward for him.
Speaker 1: Boy, this is remarkable the extent to which the narrative
Speaker 1: has changed since we came on the air this year.
Speaker 1: Evening Ronda Santis, to Julie Fine's point, put his eggs
Speaker 1: in the Iowa basket.
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley put her eggs.
Speaker 1: Somewhere in New Hampshire, and I wonder how she can
Speaker 1: control the narrative in the next four days moving into
Speaker 1: Manchester to spin whatever happens here tonight is maybe not
Speaker 1: a positive, but something that could be followed on by
Speaker 1: a big win in the first of the nation primary state.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say Nicki Haley is running a multi
Speaker 7: state campaign, right. Ronda Santis is running a single state campaign.
Speaker 7: She did come in late off of some momentum that
Speaker 7: she was generating, and spent heavily.
Speaker 2: In the last two weeks.
Speaker 7: She's dominated the airwaves, spending much much more than Donald
Speaker 7: Trump and Ronda Santis combined. So she played here, she
Speaker 7: just played in a different way without the ground game.
Speaker 7: We're going to see whether or not that materializes as
Speaker 7: a second place finish for her. But she does have
Speaker 7: a very strong operation in New Hampshire, starting with the endorsement.
Speaker 2: Of the incredibly popular gup.
Speaker 7: Chris Snuda and his entire state organization is behind her,
Speaker 7: in addition to the fact that, as Genie has pointed out,
Speaker 7: she has built her own impressive organization there and has
Speaker 7: attended and put on many town halls that New Hampshire
Speaker 7: voters love to test their candidates in. So she actually
Speaker 7: starts well ahead even before the night is over, well
Speaker 7: ahead of ron De Santis in New Hampshire and frankly
Speaker 7: on par with the organization and the support that Donald
Speaker 7: Trump has there. So she knows the game starts for
Speaker 7: her in New Hampshire tonight as soon as she gets
Speaker 7: on a plane and leaves here. Whether it's to night
Speaker 7: or first thing tomorrow morning. She has a fresh start
Speaker 7: with some momentum. She hasn't been written out of this
Speaker 7: narrative yet. And and you know it's game on in
Speaker 7: New Hampshire tomorrow.
Speaker 5: Well, you say she's running a multi state campaign, DeSantis
Speaker 5: maybe has been a single state campaign to this point.
Speaker 5: Either way, we've seen them. It's very expensive. So the
Speaker 5: donor question is raised here as well. DeSantis has been
Speaker 5: going after Haley in recent weeks on the idea that
Speaker 5: she's in this for her donors issues, whereas he says
Speaker 5: he's in it for voters issues. But he struggled in
Speaker 5: the donor department in a way that she hasn't. Their
Speaker 5: fates almost in that regard have reversed. How does the
Speaker 5: outcome in Iowa impact their ability to access resources going forward?
Speaker 5: How do you fundraise if you haven't just won?
Speaker 7: Yeah, you have to live off the land, and unfortunately
Speaker 7: I've been involved with a lot.
Speaker 4: Of companies you go foraging.
Speaker 7: Had to live off the land, and it is possible. Yeah,
Speaker 7: you find other ways to compete, you do. Frankly, what
Speaker 7: Ron DeSantis has been doing here is going and putting
Speaker 7: yourself out there with five six events a day, And
Speaker 7: part of the advantage Nikki Haley has is she's been
Speaker 7: working that hard, she's been doing those events every day,
Speaker 7: but she's also got a little bit of moment where
Speaker 7: the money has rushed in. Look, there's a reason that
Speaker 7: front runners usually win because they have the money, and
Speaker 7: insurgents usually complain that, you know, it's a money game
Speaker 7: for them, voters don't care. In fact, I think most
Speaker 7: voters respect the fact that a campaign can raise money
Speaker 7: because at the end of the day, whoever is the
Speaker 7: Republican nominee, they're going to have to raise a lot
Speaker 7: of money to beat Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: He is sitting there.
Speaker 7: With over one hundred million dollars cash in an account,
Speaker 7: ready to wage a campaign war against.
Speaker 2: The Republican nominee.
Speaker 1: See, we haven't talked about Joe Biden for most of
Speaker 1: the night. It might be the first time I've heard
Speaker 1: that name. Are they popping quarks here at Biden campaign headquarters?
Speaker 1: Because the narrative was that, you know, he wants to
Speaker 1: face Trump again, he is the one he knows he
Speaker 1: can beat. But numbers like this might make you think twice.
Speaker 6: You know, I think they're popping them quietly they don't
Speaker 6: want to get out ahead of themselves. But the reality is,
Speaker 6: you look at the polls, and the national polls were
Speaker 6: showing that who could beat him. Nicky Haley, Bronda Santis
Speaker 6: and Trump were beating him within a margin in the
Speaker 6: latest polls, but Nicki Haley had a pretty commanding lead
Speaker 6: over Biden. And so we've long thought that the Biden
Speaker 6: campaign would prefer to run against somebody as unpopular as
Speaker 6: the president is, quite frankly, and that is Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: So if that narrative continues, then I think they are
Speaker 6: quietly saying this is where we want to be. We
Speaker 6: beat him before we can do it again. But you know,
Speaker 6: I think that's a really dangerous game. Donald Trump is
Speaker 6: an incredibly good politician as long as he much as
Speaker 6: he likes to say is not. He's great at this,
Speaker 6: and Joe Biden is as well, So I think they
Speaker 6: have to be careful what they wish for.
Speaker 1: Of Course, the Bloomberg Morning Console poll Kayley in the
Speaker 1: seven swing states we've been following show Joe Biden actually
Speaker 1: has probably more to worry about.
Speaker 2: The conventional wisdom might suggest we're going to.
Speaker 1: Stick with Rick and Jeanie here and we'll be back
Speaker 1: with more of our conversation live from Des Moines. Coming up,
Speaker 1: we will add the voice of a real insider, a
Speaker 1: long time Iowa political strategist. David Kotchel is with us
Speaker 1: next on a special Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 1: and Radio. It's a special coverage of the Iowa Caucuses
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg TV and radio. We're live in Des Moines
Speaker 1: and joining us now a long time Iowa political strategist.
Speaker 1: They call him the Dean of Iowa politics.
Speaker 2: That would be David Conchulu.
Speaker 1: Is wonderful to have you at the table here in
Speaker 1: the throes of a night like this.
Speaker 2: David, we had an early call.
Speaker 1: For Donald Trump, but still a lot of questions about
Speaker 1: margins and turnout as we look at these very cold
Speaker 1: people walking by, knowing the weather was a real factor here.
Speaker 2: What are you hearing about turnout.
Speaker 8: At the stage the game, Well, it's going to be
Speaker 8: well under what was expected.
Speaker 9: Yeah, obviously in twenty sixteen, one hundred and eighty seven
Speaker 9: thousand people turned out. Twenty twenty four, I think most
Speaker 9: people were setting the over under one hundred and fifty thousand,
Speaker 9: and a lot of people would have taken the over
Speaker 9: The truth is this campaign hasn't been that exciting because
Speaker 9: Donald Trump has had a big lead almost all the
Speaker 9: way through Iowa. So there's two campaigns now to watch.
Speaker 9: It's Trump versus himself. Can he get over fifty? If
Speaker 9: he's under fifty, that says half of Iowa voters said no,
Speaker 9: thank you. And then the race obviously for second place.
Speaker 9: This high stakes for Ron DeSantis bets it all here.
Speaker 9: It's really the only place he's campaigned, spent a ton
Speaker 9: of money, and he and Nikki Haley are going to
Speaker 9: go I think back and forth all night. I have
Speaker 9: a feeling that if they're deadlocked right now with just
Speaker 9: a few counties in the largest counties report latest because
Speaker 9: these are hand counted ballots on the ground by volunteers.
Speaker 9: So those big, huge counties in places like Clive in
Speaker 9: Dallas County in Marion and Lynn County, Bettendorf's big suburbs
Speaker 9: where she overperforms, if those come in late, that might
Speaker 9: her put her past DeSantis, in which case I think
Speaker 9: DeSantis has a lot to think about overnight.
Speaker 5: Do you think realistically we could see DeSantis out of
Speaker 5: this race as soon as tomorrow morning?
Speaker 9: You could if he finishes in third place after having
Speaker 9: Governor Reynolds Bob Vander plots a bunch of legislators over
Speaker 9: one hundred million dollars in spending from the super pack,
Speaker 9: the biggest ground game spend we've ever seen in Iowa
Speaker 9: started in the high thirties here when he got into
Speaker 9: the race and just kind.
Speaker 8: Of fell over the summer in the fall.
Speaker 9: What case can he make if he finishes third here,
Speaker 9: He's already well behind in New Hampshire, He's well behind
Speaker 9: in South Carolina. Those are the next two contests that matter.
Speaker 9: It's really hard to argue that somehow on March fifth,
Speaker 9: on Super Tuesday, he's going to be resurrected. So I
Speaker 9: don't see a path for him if he finishes third.
Speaker 9: If he's in second, maybe he has to go on
Speaker 9: to New Hampshire and see what happens. Maybe something happens
Speaker 9: in the race that we can't foresee. But he's in
Speaker 9: tough shape if he comes out of Iowa third tonight.
Speaker 1: Before seven thirty tonight when this race was called and
Speaker 1: some of the other things that you've learned since then,
Speaker 1: did you expect to hear concession speeches from anyone coming
Speaker 1: out of Iowa.
Speaker 8: No.
Speaker 9: I've been around this a long time, six presidential campaigns,
Speaker 9: a few of whom didn't make it the distance. It's
Speaker 9: tough for a campaign to drop out after all this investment.
Speaker 9: You want to get with your family, you want to
Speaker 9: get with your top strategies, you want to talk about it.
Speaker 9: Usually there isn't a snap decision on a night like this,
Speaker 9: so I wouldn't expect to hear any concessions tonight. I
Speaker 9: think tomorrow morning everyone's going to wake up reassessed, see
Speaker 9: what their path is forward. If they can make a
Speaker 9: credible argument for a path forward, they'll try to stay in.
Speaker 8: You also have the idea that.
Speaker 9: If you don't do well here, if you perform below expectations,
Speaker 9: you're not going to expect any more money to be
Speaker 9: coming in over the next week. And these campaigns run on,
Speaker 9: you know, campaign donations. You got to have some money
Speaker 9: to go to New Hampshire. That's a Boston TV market
Speaker 9: costs about a million bucks a week. You know, I
Speaker 9: don't know that DeSantis is going to have the resources
Speaker 9: to continue to compete, especially if he finishes, you know,
Speaker 9: in third place, where he was not expected to finish.
Speaker 5: We've talked at length about Governor DeSantis, about Inbassador Haley,
Speaker 5: about Trump. This evening, we have not mentioned another candidate
Speaker 5: who spent a lot of time here. For vig Ramaswami,
Speaker 5: he says he did a double grassley. He went to
Speaker 5: all ninety nine counties twice. Does that traditional Iowa politicking
Speaker 5: not matter anymore if he's barely even registering enough for
Speaker 5: us to bring him up until we're an hour and
Speaker 5: forty five minutes into this program.
Speaker 9: I think vivek Is is a special case here. If
Speaker 9: you liked to eviake Ramaswami and you showed up at
Speaker 9: his events, you were voting for Donald Trump. He's kind
Speaker 9: of the mini Trump in this race. He had that message,
Speaker 9: and I kind of think he really wasn't running to
Speaker 9: be president. He's kind of running to be a mega celebrity.
Speaker 9: Maybe Alex Jones. I just think his campaign hasn't been
Speaker 9: serious for a while. The first couple of debates, he
Speaker 9: was two completely different people. I think Iowan's you know
Speaker 9: they up close. I think they found him to be
Speaker 9: phony and I felt like he wasn't going anywhere for
Speaker 9: the last two months, and it's.
Speaker 8: Proved to be true.
Speaker 2: Well, if he's pulling at eight percent and he drops
Speaker 2: out to those votes go straight to Donald Trump. They do.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And in New Hampshire, I don't even think he's
Speaker 9: pulling at eight percent. I think he's pulling well below
Speaker 9: that here.
Speaker 8: I so I don't. Yeah.
Speaker 9: Here in Iowa, Yeah, and I look, he's not going
Speaker 9: to hit eight percent tonight. Those votes already went to
Speaker 9: Donald Trump and might be the thing that puts him
Speaker 9: over fifty, which is I think where they want to be.
Speaker 9: So yeah, Vivick just didn't couldn't, couldn't land it here.
Speaker 9: As much time as he spent, he pulled out.
Speaker 8: His money a while back. He's been off the air.
Speaker 9: So you know, I think most people who are watching
Speaker 9: this closely saw that coming.
Speaker 5: We are joined by a global audience this evening on
Speaker 5: television and radio. There's people watching from all over the
Speaker 5: world who essentially are trying to figure out what this
Speaker 5: means for who's going to be the nominee in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four.
Speaker 4: To what extent right now do you think the.
Speaker 5: Iowa electorate Republicans Here in Iowa are those who perhaps
Speaker 5: decided to register as Republicans for this evening to participate
Speaker 5: in this choice to what extent do you think that
Speaker 5: is reflected of the country more widely in terms of
Speaker 5: the issues that are resonating for voters. Do we think,
Speaker 5: actually Iowa may be more reflective this time around of
Speaker 5: the way the rest of this race.
Speaker 4: Is going to go.
Speaker 9: Yeah, but Iowa is usually not a great predictor who
Speaker 9: the nominee is.
Speaker 4: I'm just wondering if this time is different.
Speaker 8: Yeah, well it might be different.
Speaker 9: We have to go through New Hampshire and kind of
Speaker 9: see what New Hampshire does. New Hampshire likes to say, Okay,
Speaker 9: Iowa a nice work, we're going to change it now,
Speaker 9: And we heard Nikki Hayley joke about that a week
Speaker 9: or so ago in New Hampshire. What Iowa's job really
Speaker 9: is and what people need to understand. We're not picking
Speaker 9: the nominee here. We're winnowing the field down to a
Speaker 9: manageable race where voters really get to say, Okay, of
Speaker 9: these two or three viable candidates, now we're going to
Speaker 9: select them. We've already dispensed with a whole bunch of
Speaker 9: candidates that had high hopes coming in here. Mike Pence
Speaker 9: is out, Tim Scott is out, Doug Bergham is out.
Speaker 9: A whole host of candidates didn't even make it to Iowa.
Speaker 9: Usually we say there are three tickets out of Iowa.
Speaker 9: I actually think tonight there might be two. And that
Speaker 9: would be interesting because that puts us in a one
Speaker 9: on one race with Donald Trump. Well before we saw
Speaker 9: that in twenty sixteen, we were in Florida with multiple candidates,
Speaker 9: way down the calendar into March. And what Trump doesn't want,
Speaker 9: he wants to wrap this up. He's got a lot
Speaker 9: of other things on his plate right now. What we
Speaker 9: need to see is can New Hampshire maybe reverse this
Speaker 9: result show a little bit of vulnerability with Trump.
Speaker 8: If Nikki Haley were to weak.
Speaker 9: Past him in New Hampshire, I think that'll scramble the
Speaker 9: national polls. Some the money will flood into her campaign,
Speaker 9: and I think Donald Trump might have a race in
Speaker 9: South Carolina. He's got a lead now, but this is
Speaker 9: part of a whole several months where he's had a
Speaker 9: dominant national lead and other states aren't paying as closive
Speaker 9: attention as they are here where he could finish under fifty,
Speaker 9: and as they are in New Hampshire. So he's the
Speaker 9: overwhelming front runner now. There is no question about that.
Speaker 9: If he were to lose New Hampshire, I think you'd
Speaker 9: watch some national polling change and there might be a
Speaker 9: few cracks in that inevitability.
Speaker 5: All right, Well, at the very least he's claimed that
Speaker 5: first ticket out of Iowa. We're still waiting to see
Speaker 5: who gets the second. David Kachel, thank you so much
Speaker 5: for joining us here and j join this evening. We
Speaker 5: appreciate it.
Speaker 8: Thank you.
Speaker 5: Now, coming up, we'll be back with Rick Davis and
Speaker 5: Jeanie Shanzeno to help close out this night special coverage
Speaker 5: of the Iowa Caucuses on Bloomberg Television and Radio. This
Speaker 5: is special coverage of the Iowa Caucuses on Bloomberg Television
Speaker 5: and Radio. We're getting more numbers out throughout this evening
Speaker 5: after the race was called for former President Donald Trump
Speaker 5: and Bloomberg Tyler Kendall is here with the latest. Tyler,
Speaker 5: what else do we know? What are the figures selling us?
Speaker 10: Yep, Kelly, So, now about thirty six percent of the
Speaker 10: expected vote is in and that includes most of eastern
Speaker 10: Iowa and also central Iowa. I want to pull out
Speaker 10: two counties. One is Pole County where we are here
Speaker 10: in des Moines that is trending towards former President Trump,
Speaker 10: as well as Dallas County that is right to the
Speaker 10: west of US. It is the fastest growing county in Iowa.
Speaker 10: These two counties very populous, but also considered more moderate
Speaker 10: places where Nikki Haley has really been focusing her campaign attention.
Speaker 10: Interesting too, Dallas County met Romney in twenty twelve. In
Speaker 10: that general election, he won it by twelve points. Trump
Speaker 10: than won it by nine points, but the last election
Speaker 10: he only won it by two So this was an
Speaker 10: area that Nikki Hilly's campaign has really been targeting, trying
Speaker 10: to get those moderate voters. These were these central counties
Speaker 10: that I think she was hoping to make a splash
Speaker 10: in tonight.
Speaker 4: All right, Tyler, thank you so much.
Speaker 5: And as we close out the program this evening, Joe,
Speaker 5: we got to bring in our closers as we always do.
Speaker 2: That's correct.
Speaker 1: There's only one closing panel and that's Rick Davis and
Speaker 1: Jeanie Shanzo.
Speaker 2: This move fast tonight. We're not done.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering Rick, if we're going to wake up tomorrow
Speaker 1: and no second and third places.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think the reporting is coming in on pace.
Speaker 7: And as Dave Kotchwe was talking about some of these
Speaker 7: bigger counties, bigger precincts. Takes a while to hang count
Speaker 7: all those ballots, but the reporting system seems to be
Speaker 7: working perfectly. The chairman of the Republican Party told us that,
Speaker 7: you know, he thought it was going to be smooth,
Speaker 7: and it looks like he made good on that promise.
Speaker 2: So I think we'll know by the time we wake
Speaker 2: up in the morning. But maybe we just shouldn't go to.
Speaker 7: Sleep until we find out who's going to be in
Speaker 7: second place in Iowa.
Speaker 5: Well, let's say volunteering all of us all nighters here, Jeanie,
Speaker 5: I just had something hit my inbox from Gavin Newsom,
Speaker 5: the governor of California. A short while ago, Donald Trump
Speaker 5: won the Iowa caucus. He is now one step closer
Speaker 5: to becoming the Republican nominee than goes.
Speaker 4: On to ask for donations.
Speaker 5: How does this shape the race beyond just the Republican primary,
Speaker 5: But as president Biden is actively engaged in general election
Speaker 5: politics right now.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's so important because of course we're talking about
Speaker 6: his commanding lead. But of course we have to remember
Speaker 6: this is all on the Republican side. And as we
Speaker 6: move into the national view of things, you have a
Speaker 6: very unpopular former president and President Trump, who people, to
Speaker 6: Gavin Newsom's point, are very concerned about the impact he
Speaker 6: has on democracy, the fact that he is still litigating
Speaker 6: the twenty twenty election, the fact is he has lost
Speaker 6: more elections than he's won, and he has refuse to
Speaker 6: admit that he has to Rick's earlier appointment endorsing candidates
Speaker 6: in the mid last midterm who didn't do well. So
Speaker 6: these are all problems for the Republican Party and this
Speaker 6: is why so many moderate Republicans wanted to look ahead
Speaker 6: and try to find somebody else. But at this point,
Speaker 6: at least in Iowa, they are saying no, no, no,
Speaker 6: And you know, I think we should say turnout if
Speaker 6: it is as low as Kotchel said, David Kotchel said,
Speaker 6: or others have said, one hundred thousand, one hundred and
Speaker 6: ten thousand. That's one seventh of registered Republicans in this state.
Speaker 6: That is a very small slice of people who can
Speaker 6: get out to vote.
Speaker 2: So what do we extrapolate from that.
Speaker 1: Let's say we get one hundred and ten hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty thousand here compared to the all time high north
Speaker 1: of one hundred and eighty thousand. Rick, your takeaways knowing
Speaker 1: that turnout might have been that low.
Speaker 7: Yeah, look, I mean it's cold out's eye, yees, and
Speaker 7: so like we advantage Trump though, yeah, we thought, actually
Speaker 7: it would disadvantage Trump to have this low of a turnout.
Speaker 2: So it shows the resiliency the Trump vote here.
Speaker 7: I might also Matt just add Iowa was not always
Speaker 7: a red state. I mean Donald Trump's emergence in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 7: even though he lost the Iowa caucus, he won the state,
Speaker 7: and he won it big, and he converted a lot
Speaker 7: of blue collar white voters, especially in the northwest of
Speaker 7: this state, who used to be Obama voters into Republican voters.
Speaker 7: And he did the same thing in other places around
Speaker 7: the country. So the reason he won in twenty sixteen
Speaker 7: was he had a partial realignment of certain voters of
Speaker 7: a certain class into the Republican Party, and the Democrats
Speaker 7: have not been able to make a dent.
Speaker 2: In getting them back.
Speaker 5: All right, we have exactly one minute left, so this
Speaker 5: is a quick answer for both of you. Will we
Speaker 5: still have four candidates for the nomination when we get
Speaker 5: to New Hampshire next week.
Speaker 6: Jennie, I don't think we should, so I am going
Speaker 6: to say no. But at this point it's hard to
Speaker 6: tell because they're still waiting to see what happens.
Speaker 7: I think it's irrelevant. It's a head to head race
Speaker 7: from this point on. Even if Ronda Santis can eke
Speaker 7: out a min win against Nikki Haley, she's got the
Speaker 7: momentum and it's a head to head for New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: All Right, Rick Davis and Jeannie shanzena with us throughout
Speaker 5: this evening the Iowa caucuses, which have been called for
Speaker 5: former President Donald Trump. We're waiting for results on number
Speaker 5: two and three. Thank you for joining us here, Balance
Speaker 5: of Power. We'll be back at five pm Eastern tomorrow
Speaker 5: from Washington, and we'll have special coverage of the New
Speaker 5: Hampshire Republican primary next Tuesday, live from Manchester.
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.