Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. Isn't the Joe. Have
Speaker 1: you looked at the price of oil recently? No? Is it?
Speaker 1: Is it doing something? Has oil been moving lately? I
Speaker 1: don't know, you hadn't noticed. Yes, it has. Um I
Speaker 1: think you know. We're recording this on March tenth. But
Speaker 1: just in the past couple of days, oil spiked almost
Speaker 1: and then came down by almost as well the next day.
Speaker 1: So just incredibly volatile times for commodities across the complex. Yes.
Speaker 1: In fact, I think within the last week we both
Speaker 1: had the biggest update for the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index
Speaker 1: its two thousand eight and the biggest down day for
Speaker 1: the same index's two thousand eight. Unreal volatility because you
Speaker 1: have the combination of an extremely tight market across the board,
Speaker 1: combined with geopolitical events that of course are inherent the uncertain,
Speaker 1: non linear, and unpredictable. Yeah, and you kind of have
Speaker 1: to wonder what it's actually like to be trading commodities
Speaker 1: at the moment, because not only do you have this
Speaker 1: massive price volatility, but you also have everything that's going
Speaker 1: on in the background with financing and exchanges, them having
Speaker 1: to deal with this intense volatility and sometimes you know,
Speaker 1: sort of um canceling trades, which is something we saw
Speaker 1: from the London Medal. Exchange of financing has become an
Speaker 1: issue people taking physically physical delivery of stuff. Is there
Speaker 1: actually going to be enough to settle some of these contracts.
Speaker 1: There's so many questions around the space right now, in
Speaker 1: addition to actually what's going on with Russia and Ukraine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the degrees of uncertainty or the vectors of uncertainty, just
Speaker 1: because there's the pure price question. Then as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: the physical availability, the ability to move the oil, the
Speaker 1: interaction between oil and sanctions or self sanctions unbelievably complicated times. Well,
Speaker 1: I am very pleased to say that we are going
Speaker 1: to be talking about all of this with really I
Speaker 1: know we say this all the time, but really the
Speaker 1: perfect guest, someone who has basically made a career out
Speaker 1: of trading oil and other commodities at very volatile times
Speaker 1: and has been very good at it um in recent years.
Speaker 1: We're going to be speaking with Pierre and Gerund, the
Speaker 1: founder of Anderond Capital Management, big commodities hedge funds. So, Pierre,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming on my pleasure. High
Speaker 1: Joe High, Tracy, Hi, So I'm trying to think where
Speaker 1: to begin, but maybe maybe we just ask you, how
Speaker 1: have the past couple of weeks been for you? Well,
Speaker 1: I mean it's been a lot of work men. Clearly,
Speaker 1: it's a new it's a market that's driven by geopolitical events. Um,
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of reading trying to understand, you know,
Speaker 1: how the war will turn out and the kind of
Speaker 1: sanctions and that that that that will happen and they'll
Speaker 1: keep on being added every day. So it's been, you know,
Speaker 1: lots of work and very stressful and also obviously very
Speaker 1: sad to witness that we have such a war now
Speaker 1: in the twenty one century. Um, we don't expect that,
Speaker 1: you know, we don't tell you very unnecessary war and
Speaker 1: and really tragic. So, Um, a lot of emotions and
Speaker 1: and a lot of work and a lot of stress. Actually.
Speaker 1: So obviously we've seen this incredible well we've seen this
Speaker 1: huge surge in the price of oil that goes without
Speaker 1: saying this steep contango, which signifies the market is extremely tight.
Speaker 1: Are there any historical periods maybe let's start there, like
Speaker 1: how novel does this feel in terms of the market
Speaker 1: or is this does it feel like the sort of
Speaker 1: general conditions are something you've seen before, Like how much
Speaker 1: is everyone in new territory here? Yeah, I think it's
Speaker 1: a new territory. I can't speak of an event that
Speaker 1: will seemed over the last few decades really, um, So
Speaker 1: we started the year already with very low inventories, with
Speaker 1: the low spec capacity in the hands of Opeque and
Speaker 1: in general low production cacy production capacity, a low expected
Speaker 1: supply goes and high expected demand goes thanks to you know,
Speaker 1: the week of we from COVID. So we already started
Speaker 1: the year before the invasion with very very strong fundamentals
Speaker 1: and the level of inventories are very low. The level
Speaker 1: of backqualation so actually, you know, the stronger backqualation and
Speaker 1: needs backqualation means the content the first contracts are much
Speaker 1: higher than the back contracts and and it means that
Speaker 1: the market is very tight physically. So we were already
Speaker 1: at two dollars a months backqualation before Russia invaded Ukraine
Speaker 1: and night between four and five dollars depending on the
Speaker 1: day for for the first three months, and gas all
Speaker 1: went to crazy backualation. At some point it was above
Speaker 1: fifty dollars the bubble in one month, you know, between
Speaker 1: the March and April contracts. So we've never seen this
Speaker 1: type of backqualation and and and such a strong felical market.
Speaker 1: And it's only the start, you know, so far there's
Speaker 1: you know, they haven't been like massive dis options yet.
Speaker 1: It's just the the fears of how the sanctions will
Speaker 1: bite that that keeps the market tight. So it could
Speaker 1: be only the beginning, like it could be the end.
Speaker 1: We don't know, So it makes it difficult to to
Speaker 1: to make strong calls like Tracy, did I say contango
Speaker 1: or vagradation? Of my question? I always get I always
Speaker 1: I always slip and say the wrong one, even if
Speaker 1: they're all these years of trying to memorize it. But
Speaker 1: I do know that the front month oil is far
Speaker 1: more expensive than the oil further out. Yes, I only
Speaker 1: remember the term because of that oil buying a barrel
Speaker 1: of oil peace and then trying to buy a barrel
Speaker 1: of oil back when it was in contango and we
Speaker 1: could all store it under our beds and wait for
Speaker 1: prices to increase. But that is not the case. Anymore,
Speaker 1: we are firmly in backwardation. Um, let me ask a
Speaker 1: very basic question, which is I feel like your fund
Speaker 1: is often described as having bullish bets on commodities, but
Speaker 1: I actually don't have a very good grasp of what
Speaker 1: those look like. How do you know how do you
Speaker 1: actually invest without revealing all of your trades and the book,
Speaker 1: but how do you actually invest in commodities? And what
Speaker 1: did your positions you know, generally look like going into
Speaker 1: I guess the recent turmoil. Sure, so actually, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm quite agnostic to you know, over time if places
Speaker 1: go up or down. So I'm not a producer of oil.
Speaker 1: So for me, I just you know, study the fundamental
Speaker 1: of the market, studies the growth of demand relative to
Speaker 1: the growth of supply, and as the wizard, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: have an idea if inventories are going to go up
Speaker 1: on or done it, and what kind of price would
Speaker 1: actually balance the market that we don't run out of
Speaker 1: inventories or we don't run out of of storage to
Speaker 1: to to put that inventory in. So actually I have
Speaker 1: not always been bullish. You know. There are period of
Speaker 1: time where we had big based positions, such as second
Speaker 1: half of two thousand and eight, we were short. The
Speaker 1: end of two thousand and fourteen, we were shot the
Speaker 1: world of two thousand and fifteen. We were shot before COVID.
Speaker 1: I mean when COVID started, we were shot down to
Speaker 1: negative prices. Um. So I've not only been long, right,
Speaker 1: we happened where we're long people where we were shot.
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm trying to make money from the
Speaker 1: large move in your market. So it means that sometimes
Speaker 1: will bet that prices will go up for sometimes for
Speaker 1: a few months or a few years, and and sometimes
Speaker 1: will bet that they go down over generally a few months, um,
Speaker 1: but actually like a year even um. So to to
Speaker 1: bet on all prices going up, I mean what we
Speaker 1: do is we buy if we think that if we
Speaker 1: have a British view on the market, meaning that we
Speaker 1: expect prices to work, what we do is that we
Speaker 1: buy futures, and so for Apple brand futures or the
Speaker 1: ability and futures, or we can be heating oil or
Speaker 1: gas oil or gasoline futures, and we'll pick like a
Speaker 1: month for Apple if we want to belong the front
Speaker 1: month contracts for an Apple at the moment it's it's
Speaker 1: May brand, or if we want to be long a
Speaker 1: bit more default on the care for an applegies some
Speaker 1: the brands UM and we also trade with options, so
Speaker 1: generally like we don't sell options, we either flat options
Speaker 1: or long options um so, meaning that they can be
Speaker 1: longer call or longer puts. But I'm not going to
Speaker 1: be short to call or short to put UM And
Speaker 1: so when when we feel like the market is going
Speaker 1: to you know, make a big move in a short
Speaker 1: period of time, then we'll prefer to be UM to
Speaker 1: express that view with options relative to two futures, it's
Speaker 1: a way to have more leverage and have less risks.
Speaker 1: But you don't trade physical are presumably you would always
Speaker 1: try to avoid taking physical delivery of, you know, a
Speaker 1: tankerful of oil. Sure, we don't do physical. I've never
Speaker 1: done physical. Understand the rules and height works, but but
Speaker 1: it's mainly to understand how it can impact the pricing.
Speaker 1: But I myself never to delivere or delivery of dabble
Speaker 1: for it. M It feels like the market at the moment,
Speaker 1: you know, obviously the commodity space is very financialized. There
Speaker 1: are a lot of traders such as yourselves who deal
Speaker 1: in these things. But it feels like the physical is
Speaker 1: becoming much more important. And I've seen some people talk
Speaker 1: about the potential for a squeeze in the April contract,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of the reverse of what we saw
Speaker 1: in March or April of twenty when oil went negative.
Speaker 1: Maybe there won't actually be enough oil to deliver into
Speaker 1: these contracts this time around. So I'm just wondering how
Speaker 1: you're thinking about how the physical relates to the actual
Speaker 1: trading at the moment. Well, that's um, it's really important
Speaker 1: to understand the vehicle because it's what's going to drive
Speaker 1: the place of oil. So an ample, let's say during
Speaker 1: the COVID times when the demand suddenly collapsed of the night,
Speaker 1: we built a lot of inventories of a shop period
Speaker 1: of time, and you know, the infrastructure of the your market,
Speaker 1: you know, it was not built to withstand those kind
Speaker 1: of events of losing twenty percent of worlds demand overnight.
Speaker 1: So the left of empty storage was um enough, was
Speaker 1: actually could only take one and a half months of
Speaker 1: this uh willy low demand before all the thanks were full,
Speaker 1: and so in April two thousand and twenty, when all
Speaker 1: the thanks were full. Basically, it's just in some production
Speaker 1: that needs to be moved. Nobody can buy that oil,
Speaker 1: and that's where placed negative. And as you say, like
Speaker 1: when when when we're in the opposite scenario where inventories
Speaker 1: are very low and there are places in the world
Speaker 1: where a delivery of certain contracts such as Cushing in
Speaker 1: Oklahoma for doubl TI, where the tanks are all empty
Speaker 1: and there's no no all in those tanks anymore. If
Speaker 1: somebody is a long future, then try to take delivery
Speaker 1: of of oil at that at that place, at that
Speaker 1: point in time, well, nobody can deliver and then it
Speaker 1: can go to any price. So generally what happens is
Speaker 1: that that's where the kind of so called speculators are
Speaker 1: in in in the middle to to help make the
Speaker 1: price moving. After that, we're never in a situation where
Speaker 1: either the tanks are full or either the tanks are empty.
Speaker 1: So it means some high it means you know that
Speaker 1: prices have not gone up fast enough and for long
Speaker 1: enough to either bring more extra supply or actually we
Speaker 1: use demand before we run out of inventories. And that's
Speaker 1: where sometimes people want to know what is the role
Speaker 1: of speculators. I mean, it's actually a price discovery and
Speaker 1: and also giving the white signal to producers and consumers
Speaker 1: in order not to run out of storage capacity or
Speaker 1: um not to run out of inventories, because then prices
Speaker 1: can go anywhere. Right if somebody has to buy the
Speaker 1: oilatiny price, you know, you could go to you know,
Speaker 1: five dollars bubble back coalition, you can't go anywhere. So
Speaker 1: that's where generally what what the price should do. The
Speaker 1: price should move in order to keep the the inventories
Speaker 1: within kind of kind of you know hand that makes
Speaker 1: the market function. Let's talk a little bit more about
Speaker 1: the fundamentals themselves. And there's like a furious debate obviously
Speaker 1: in the US context, in particular why we haven't seen
Speaker 1: a more aggressive ramp up in UH in drilling and
Speaker 1: explorations such that I get greater supply. Why haven't we
Speaker 1: in your view, because we've had other theories, But what's
Speaker 1: your explanation for why we haven't seen a more aggressive
Speaker 1: supply response. I think there's two reasons, um. So the
Speaker 1: first one is that all the all the I mean
Speaker 1: a lot of the easy oil in the US has
Speaker 1: been drilled. You know, generally when you come with like
Speaker 1: a new field, a new basin, well, the producers will
Speaker 1: will go way, it will drill way, it's easier to
Speaker 1: get the oil, and over time they'll get where it's
Speaker 1: a bit more challenging. So I would say that now
Speaker 1: US shell has been producing you know, at scale for
Speaker 1: ten years, and they're still room you know for another
Speaker 1: ten years of also of strong supply. But I'm not
Speaker 1: sure there's a room for you know, many decades of
Speaker 1: high production and definitely high production goals. So some of
Speaker 1: it is due to the fact that it gets the
Speaker 1: fields are getting a bit more mature, and and another
Speaker 1: reason is also because you know a lot of the
Speaker 1: shallow producers in the US have lost a lot of money.
Speaker 1: They have been focused on on wasising production over the years,
Speaker 1: uh and taking some debt against it and actually not
Speaker 1: being profitable. You know, the most of them lost a
Speaker 1: lot of money. At some point, the whole industry had
Speaker 1: burned through six hundred billion dollars of cash and the
Speaker 1: shareholders had taken a big hit. So producers like production
Speaker 1: was growing up in the US, but the films were
Speaker 1: not profitable. Now now there's they start to be profitable.
Speaker 1: So now finally at current prices um they get poditive
Speaker 1: cash flow and good profits, and the shareholders of those
Speaker 1: companies pressure the the CEOs to not grow production too
Speaker 1: fast because if they're going to fast, then prices question
Speaker 1: again and then the cab with money. And also there
Speaker 1: is some pressure you know for climate change, basically not
Speaker 1: to grow supply too fast in order to find a
Speaker 1: solution and replacement to focil fuels in terms of of supplier. Actually,
Speaker 1: but the issue is, you know, there's been a lot
Speaker 1: of work on pressurizing those companies not to grow supply
Speaker 1: too fast or even to to to have production decline,
Speaker 1: but there hasn't been a lot of work in giving
Speaker 1: a solution for the consumers right to have another choice
Speaker 1: but to buy oil. So, okay, we have like more
Speaker 1: electric cars every year, and that we car and going.
Speaker 1: But then the electricity that is being used for those
Speaker 1: electric cars us to be produced, and that depends where
Speaker 1: in the world some of it. Some of that electricity
Speaker 1: is still produced by cool or natural gas, still by
Speaker 1: fossil fuel, and some of it is renewables such as
Speaker 1: solar and wind. But we we need the big Now
Speaker 1: we have the issue that we have some shortage of
Speaker 1: electricity and oil. So it's a bit tricky, you know,
Speaker 1: Like I mean, in the US you have a bit
Speaker 1: less of a polem. I think in Europe it's a
Speaker 1: much bigger problem where you know, if we were to
Speaker 1: replace normal cars, like you know, gasoline or diesel cars
Speaker 1: by by evs, because there's not enough power to charge
Speaker 1: those evs. So we we really have an issue at
Speaker 1: least in Europe in fending a solution for for our supply.
Speaker 1: How are you actually thinking about renewables at the moment,
Speaker 1: because I know, I think you were quite polish on
Speaker 1: emissions related credits, so basically making a bet on decarbonization.
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, you know, in the past
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we've seen a lot of people, including
Speaker 1: some people who have been on this podcast, talking about
Speaker 1: the idea that renewables are not going to be able
Speaker 1: to ramp up enough to replace lost supply from the
Speaker 1: Russia situation, and that actually we might have to you know,
Speaker 1: stick with traditional oil and gas for longer than perhaps
Speaker 1: some people expected. Yeah, I mean, you know, this Russian
Speaker 1: situation was not expected, right, So the plan in terms
Speaker 1: of the Calbanization was to go supply of renewables you know,
Speaker 1: every year by quite a large amount that uh and
Speaker 1: and to have a gross in evase so you have
Speaker 1: more power supply coming from from renewables and then you
Speaker 1: have more evs and then you have the electricity to
Speaker 1: charge those evs and and it's all good. The issue
Speaker 1: so making the plant is for like a twenty year
Speaker 1: transitional so where you have more evis every year and
Speaker 1: more renewable um like power. That's something that can work
Speaker 1: on a long term basis, yes, but it cannot you know,
Speaker 1: change overnight. I mean, it takes time to build solar
Speaker 1: panels and with meals and to build enough evs and
Speaker 1: enough charging stations and all that. One issue that we've
Speaker 1: been aware of on our side for for quite a
Speaker 1: few years now is that the growth of supply in
Speaker 1: metals is not going to be large enough to build
Speaker 1: as many evs and to electrify the world as fast
Speaker 1: as we'd like because the miners have not invested enough.
Speaker 1: So you know, the miners also there have been under
Speaker 1: pressure not to mind because of you know, the E.
Speaker 1: S G pressure. But then it means, okay, we don't
Speaker 1: We're not going to get enough metals in the medium
Speaker 1: to long term to build the power supply with renewables
Speaker 1: because that takes a lot of metals. Takes a lot
Speaker 1: of metals to to build renewables and then a lot
Speaker 1: of metals to build batteries. Uh, and the evs take
Speaker 1: a lot more cooper um. And we won't have enough
Speaker 1: of that in the long term. So that's the long
Speaker 1: term theology. It's the challenge. I think metal spaces will
Speaker 1: have to go up a lot in order to incentivize
Speaker 1: enough like goals to be able to recombinize the world
Speaker 1: over time. Now, if we lose you know, five million
Speaker 1: balls a day from Russian all overnight, we can't have
Speaker 1: certainly a lot more power coming from renewables overnight and
Speaker 1: a lot more heavies overnight. It takes time to build
Speaker 1: all that. So it's already at capacity. Um. So there's
Speaker 1: the things that can really change in the very short term.
Speaker 1: So I said we place Russian oil ry. Now, let's
Speaker 1: say over the next two years. What we can do is,
Speaker 1: so let's say if we if we are losing four
Speaker 1: million balls today of Russian oil for the next two years,
Speaker 1: we can replace I guess the saudiast and create a
Speaker 1: new ways could but actually increase production by one and
Speaker 1: a half million today. They will not do it before
Speaker 1: they understand that the Russian oil is out and will
Speaker 1: not come back in time soon, so they will not
Speaker 1: do it preemptively. But I believe they will increase production
Speaker 1: once that that Rasian supply is out of the market
Speaker 1: and there's visibility on on how much and for how long.
Speaker 1: So I believe they can bring one and a half
Speaker 1: million bars today, which is not high by historical standard,
Speaker 1: but it is something. Is that your gut take that
Speaker 1: the Russian oil that's been taken out of the market
Speaker 1: is gone for good or at least for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 1: It will depend, you know, if we're going to have
Speaker 1: some kind of regime changing in Russia. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's not only about the sea fire. But I still
Speaker 1: think that the sanctions will stay on Russia until the
Speaker 1: West can feel like they can trust them and that
Speaker 1: they will not go attack another neighbor like a few
Speaker 1: months later, or attack NATO countries. Um. So I think
Speaker 1: that there's need to be once it's over, there will
Speaker 1: be there will need to be a trust that it
Speaker 1: will be um we gained. And for that trust to
Speaker 1: be we gained, I don't think it can be with
Speaker 1: the current regime. I mean, you can't go from being
Speaker 1: scared of them or using nuclear strikes and using chemical
Speaker 1: weapons and and biological weapons to certainly like negotiate and
Speaker 1: give the money again. Um So, I think that will
Speaker 1: need to be a regime change in some way with
Speaker 1: the regime that we feel we can trust as we
Speaker 1: as the West, before the sanctions are lifted, or at
Speaker 1: least a big part of the sanctions are lifted. Um So,
Speaker 1: in in that way, I think, yes, we could be
Speaker 1: in a situation where we will lose rational for some
Speaker 1: time until there's a regime change. But let's say if
Speaker 1: that's a origin change in one week. I mean I
Speaker 1: think it's unlikely, but you never know. Um then and
Speaker 1: if we if we can have good relationship with that regime,
Speaker 1: then then we could get the rational again in in
Speaker 1: a few months time. So it's very you know, it
Speaker 1: really depends on on on a lot of Uh, it's
Speaker 1: going to pan out. But I don't think that certainly,
Speaker 1: if they started fighting, they start fighting, the oil comes back,
Speaker 1: It's not going to be the case. The oil is
Speaker 1: going to be gone for good. And even though the
Speaker 1: only the US put sanctions on on a rational US
Speaker 1: and UK for now you can still buy it, and
Speaker 1: and the rest of the world. Um, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of self sanctioning going on, so a lot of the
Speaker 1: re finals, you know, they don't want to be uh,
Speaker 1: to be facing a PR disaster if they buy Rational oils.
Speaker 1: They don't want to contribute to you know, financing uh,
Speaker 1: like a war on on Ukraine and and potentially European
Speaker 1: and the rest of the world. So there's a lot
Speaker 1: at stake here, right, It's a it's a lot. It's
Speaker 1: about trying to avoid World War three, and we have
Speaker 1: to understand that that's going to because to pay. So
Speaker 1: I think, you know, like there's some issues as well
Speaker 1: with insurance or being able to ensure the ships that
Speaker 1: go take delivery of the Rasian oil. There's a PR disasters.
Speaker 1: There's also a financing issue where new banks want to
Speaker 1: give a letter of credit, even Chinese banks don't want
Speaker 1: to give a letter of credit to to for for
Speaker 1: aversion oil cargo. So even though we don't have formal
Speaker 1: sanctions yet from the EU, in practice U not everybody
Speaker 1: can buy oil. And there's a lot of logistical issues
Speaker 1: as well, and that will probably last for some time.
Speaker 1: So I think in the next few weeks, if that's
Speaker 1: still the case, Russia will have to stop production because
Speaker 1: they will run out of storage capacity at their points
Speaker 1: and and and so they will need to cut production
Speaker 1: by two at least two million partiday partentially fwi million parthday.
Speaker 1: And then it takes time to bring that supply back,
Speaker 1: you know, like if if the tanks are full at
Speaker 1: the at the parts, they can't carry on producing and
Speaker 1: and that's it, and then we lose it for some
Speaker 1: time until there's like a piece like a piece and
Speaker 1: a better relationship with Russia. So I think we could
Speaker 1: lose defensive original for for some time Russian gas making.
Speaker 1: Europe is very dependent on Russian gas. Gas has been
Speaker 1: natural gas Mali, Germany and Italy uh and they're working
Speaker 1: on some kind of work plants on how they could
Speaker 1: survive in case Rossia cloud is the tope or or
Speaker 1: could they actually you know, we use their demand so
Speaker 1: that they don't pay Russia as much money um. And
Speaker 1: so there will be some kind of rationing potentially in
Speaker 1: in in Europe, like to bring a natural gas demand down,
Speaker 1: and they will look at what they can do to
Speaker 1: accelerate the energy transition. So but that will require metals
Speaker 1: as well, and Russia is a big exporter of metals.
Speaker 1: So it's not it's not going to be busy, but
Speaker 1: it's it is what it is, right like, we have
Speaker 1: to find a solution. But to finish my point about
Speaker 1: how the version would be replaced, Um, if we lose
Speaker 1: four million barllars a day for some time, let's say
Speaker 1: we get one and a half million bills a day
Speaker 1: from from Gulf countries. Um, then it's to one half
Speaker 1: two point five million bars a day that we we
Speaker 1: have to we have to find some of it could
Speaker 1: be supplied by the global SPR, so the strategic reserves
Speaker 1: that the I manage, So some of it is in
Speaker 1: the US, but you have also a lot of city
Speaker 1: countries with SPR, and they could release up to five
Speaker 1: million ballars a day for twelve months. So let's say
Speaker 1: they could easy they could easily go to two million
Speaker 1: bars a day for you know, two and a half years.
Speaker 1: But then that means that in two an a half
Speaker 1: years there will be you know, you know, all the
Speaker 1: ESPR will be empty and they will have to be
Speaker 1: to re supply the ESPR. And I think we have
Speaker 1: to accept some demand destruction, you know, like we really
Speaker 1: have to save energy as much as we can UM.
Speaker 1: And and if we can find some kind of government
Speaker 1: mandate and it's not easy to bring the demand down,
Speaker 1: UM mandate could be something like a confinement, right like
Speaker 1: we saw it two years ago with COVID we had
Speaker 1: some kind of global lockdown, global confinement that bote all
Speaker 1: demands down by here if we just need to think
Speaker 1: of bringing all demands down by two percent, it's not
Speaker 1: going to be as drastic as the global lockdown, but
Speaker 1: there there could be some either some government mon dates
Speaker 1: to bring demand down or it will have to be
Speaker 1: coming from price, and then the price will have to
Speaker 1: be high enough to bring that demand down by one
Speaker 1: and a half million barllars a day or so. What
Speaker 1: is right now as we're talking brent oils at a
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen w as less, What does that mean
Speaker 1: is that are these demand destruction levels? Is they're driving
Speaker 1: or flying or something else that is not happening at
Speaker 1: these levels or does it need to go higher in
Speaker 1: order to really move the needle on the demand side. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So basically, when when people speak about demand destruction, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, you can think of it in many, many
Speaker 1: different ways. Um, you don't really generally have such things
Speaker 1: as demand destruction for oil, because you can't really replace
Speaker 1: in the shop term, you know, driving you know, your
Speaker 1: car by something. So sure some people will decide to
Speaker 1: walk or take a bike, but that's very marginal, um
Speaker 1: Journally the car is used to doing like longer distance
Speaker 1: and and I guess some of it there could be
Speaker 1: at the margin a bit more public transport and these
Speaker 1: kind of things, but it stays quite quite mad general. Generally,
Speaker 1: what brings the demand destruction is some kind of economic crisis.
Speaker 1: I mean, you also have you know, demand destruction. You
Speaker 1: sent that if people seeing the prices are high, maybe
Speaker 1: they'll use their cars a bit less for one or
Speaker 1: two months, and then they'll get used to the new
Speaker 1: price and carry on using their cars as they were before.
Speaker 1: So that's not really demand destruction is just like a
Speaker 1: slowdown in demand for one or two months, and then
Speaker 1: the demand comes back, Um, and then it's a question
Speaker 1: of you know, at what price do do we have?
Speaker 1: Like a large recession that then brings you know, lower
Speaker 1: economic goals and as a result, lower all demand. And
Speaker 1: that's generally what really brings prices down is when we
Speaker 1: eventually and and what brings demand down, that's when we
Speaker 1: have a large recessions, so not small recessions, but large recessions.
Speaker 1: And that price will always depend on what economic environment
Speaker 1: we will be. So example, for two in two seven
Speaker 1: and eight, we went up to dred and forty seven
Speaker 1: dollars the battle, which is equivalent to around two hundred
Speaker 1: dollars a bottle of two days dollars, and the you
Speaker 1: know at the time, but we didn't see that demand
Speaker 1: was being hit. But when Leman went burst and there
Speaker 1: was no UM, then when the financial crisis started, then
Speaker 1: there was a collapse of the trade of financing and
Speaker 1: then all demand collapsed as a result. UM in two
Speaker 1: thousand eleven to thirteen, even like first half, like two
Speaker 1: thousand fourteen, we had brand was averaging hundred and ten
Speaker 1: dollars a battle, which is equivalent to one and fifty
Speaker 1: dollars barttle two days dollars, and we had European sovereign
Speaker 1: crisis at the time. UM and the economy could you
Speaker 1: know handle hundred fifty dollars of two days dollars for
Speaker 1: for three and a half years, you know, And I
Speaker 1: believe they called me today before before the Russian invasion,
Speaker 1: at least, because we don't understand what will be you know,
Speaker 1: all the impact going forward, UM could definitely handle more
Speaker 1: than so For me, UM, I was expecting already prices
Speaker 1: to above went fifty before the Version invasion. UM, so
Speaker 1: I was already Britia. I don't think that all the
Speaker 1: move up in oil is due to Russia, you know,
Speaker 1: it's uh, it's the the acceleration of the move up
Speaker 1: of the last two weeks is due to it. But
Speaker 1: we would have gone to those places anywhere and higher
Speaker 1: this time. It would have been a bit more steady,
Speaker 1: but it would have been it would have gone higher.
Speaker 1: So it means to me the fact that we only
Speaker 1: at d and fourteen dollar brand now, it tells me
Speaker 1: that the market doesn't believe that UM, we will lose
Speaker 1: this oil for very long. I mean, how high do
Speaker 1: you think it could go and what level would be
Speaker 1: worrying to you in terms of demand destruction? Well, I
Speaker 1: think UM like close to two battle, so much higher
Speaker 1: than today. I feel like there's no demand destruction all brands,
Speaker 1: and we'll have to go significantly high before dement can
Speaker 1: go down by enough. But that's also assuming there's no
Speaker 1: government mondate in some kind of confinements. Well, let's say
Speaker 1: two days amounts, we are not doing anything and we
Speaker 1: are in confinement for two days amounts. I mean that
Speaker 1: could be some some solutions like that to bring demand down.
Speaker 1: But if there's no no government mondates, then I think
Speaker 1: that oil will be enough to to bring demand down
Speaker 1: to balance the market. Could we see two hundred dollar
Speaker 1: oil this year? Yes? I think so? Yes? Can I
Speaker 1: just ask I want to stand back. You mentioned, you know,
Speaker 1: the potential supply response from Saudi equate from the other
Speaker 1: Golf states. I find it striking, And we did an
Speaker 1: oil episode a few weeks ago that OPAC is no
Speaker 1: longer the first thing we talked about when we talked
Speaker 1: about oil. We always talk about shale, the shale response first,
Speaker 1: whereas several years ago, if you talk oil, the first
Speaker 1: thing everyone would talk about is well, what's OPEC gonna do?
Speaker 1: And now it feels like they're almost playing a second fiddle.
Speaker 1: What is the politics at OPEC right now? And how
Speaker 1: are the open leaders thinking about it? What is your
Speaker 1: forecast generally for how how that group is going to behave? Okay,
Speaker 1: so first I was, you know, really impressed by the
Speaker 1: reaction in March April when the collectively you know, agreed
Speaker 1: to cut collection by one ten million dollars a day. Uh,
Speaker 1: prices were very low, um, so they were struggling, but
Speaker 1: they got together and agreed to cut ten million bars today.
Speaker 1: Otherwise we would have had negative prices for some time.
Speaker 1: You know, that would have led to a much larger
Speaker 1: collapse in the supply today. And then they stayed quite compliant,
Speaker 1: you know, over the over time, so even when prices
Speaker 1: were we're covering in second half twenty twenty and then one,
Speaker 1: they were really careful about bringing oil back to the market.
Speaker 1: So they did it gradually, really together, doing really respecting
Speaker 1: the quarta that they put. Very few countries to did,
Speaker 1: if any. And what we noticed is quite a few
Speaker 1: countries in Opaque plus could not meet their quota. Many
Speaker 1: of the African countries they could not produce as much
Speaker 1: as what they were allowed to because of under investment.
Speaker 1: So over the years there's been like under investments that
Speaker 1: brought to bote the fields to decline. There was no
Speaker 1: new fields coming and the production was going down. So
Speaker 1: that's why now there's only like a little bit of
Speaker 1: production capacity I think I won one and a half
Speaker 1: million dollars a day. You know, when I when I
Speaker 1: say spec capacity is production that can be brought on
Speaker 1: and kept for one or two years. I think it's
Speaker 1: probably only Saudi create a new a and that's pretty
Speaker 1: much it. I think most of the other countries are
Speaker 1: at at maximum so in a way because they could not.
Speaker 1: You know, their quota has been going up every months
Speaker 1: for the last few months, but the production has not
Speaker 1: because they don't manage to UM. So that's why I
Speaker 1: think it's you know, we know that they can bring
Speaker 1: one and a half niversity. We'll probably get to deal
Speaker 1: with Iran bringing a million balls to day back, but
Speaker 1: that's expected by the market and UM and then you
Speaker 1: you need more more supply from from the US, but
Speaker 1: that will take you know, twelve months also for for
Speaker 1: the US to be able to bring higher levels of
Speaker 1: supply than what is expected today for next year. One
Speaker 1: of the big picture ideas that's been going around at
Speaker 1: the moment is this idea that as sanctions are imposed
Speaker 1: on Russia and it becomes clear that you know, the
Speaker 1: dollar and the dollar payment system can be weaponized to
Speaker 1: some extent against Western enemies, that maybe the dollar loses
Speaker 1: its position as reserve currency. Maybe Russia has to depend
Speaker 1: more on gold. And I guess we're sort of seeing
Speaker 1: a return of talk about commodity money or money that
Speaker 1: is backed by an actual thing. Is that something that
Speaker 1: you see happening? And I guess more broadly, you know,
Speaker 1: gazing into the future, do you see a world that
Speaker 1: is more tied to commodities or less tied to them,
Speaker 1: given the kind of volatility that we've seen recently. Sure?
Speaker 1: So first about the currency and the potential you know,
Speaker 1: loss of with a council for the dollar, I think
Speaker 1: it's overstated. I think uh, I think ability if a
Speaker 1: country had a currency back to gold or something, well,
Speaker 1: the Western world could still sanction that currency even if
Speaker 1: it's backed by gold. So you know, even now like
Speaker 1: Russia having having gold in reserves, where do they keep it?
Speaker 1: You know, maybe some of it could be frozen as well,
Speaker 1: even though it's gold, So it doesn't necessarily save you.
Speaker 1: Even same for cryptos, right like cryptos, Uh, some people
Speaker 1: think it's the stort of valuable When things get really
Speaker 1: bad and if you have no power, what happens to
Speaker 1: your krypto? What you can't really use it either. So
Speaker 1: there's always some situations that are difficult, but I would
Speaker 1: say currencies in general, it's always gonna be countries that
Speaker 1: have a strong rule of law and and trust and
Speaker 1: a strong financial market that will be able to have
Speaker 1: a strong currency. So for now, we have that in
Speaker 1: the US, in Europe, in Japan, and then when you
Speaker 1: look at China there's still a lot of capital control
Speaker 1: so and and it's not a consumer economy. They export
Speaker 1: a lot and so they hold a lot of U. S. Treasuries,
Speaker 1: so they are dependent on on on on on the US. Right,
Speaker 1: so I think to really have a strong currency, and
Speaker 1: that's what those countries don't understand, the more autocratic countries,
Speaker 1: is that if they don't have enough freedom and m
Speaker 1: low low enough level of corruption and uh you know,
Speaker 1: enough entrepreneurship and a strong rule of flaw, then they
Speaker 1: will never be able to have a strong currency. So
Speaker 1: then then we go into commodities. Okay, if people are
Speaker 1: worried about the value of currency because there's because of
Speaker 1: potential you know, high inflation, then I mean to protect
Speaker 1: oneself against high inflation, you have to belong things that
Speaker 1: the world needs. And you know, some people think that
Speaker 1: we need cryptocurrencies, but no, it's not something we need.
Speaker 1: It's maybe nice to have for some people, but it's
Speaker 1: not something we absolutely need. What we need is to
Speaker 1: be able to eat and move. So it's energy. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's energy, it's agricultural products, it's food, it's metal. So
Speaker 1: these are like the old school commodities that first people
Speaker 1: should be you know, should I should have enough exposure
Speaker 1: to in order not to be hit by inflation to negatively.
Speaker 1: And that's you know, despite the large move over the
Speaker 1: last couple of years, I mean coming from a very
Speaker 1: low base and now we're starting to be at relatively
Speaker 1: high historical numbers, we haven't seen a lot of investment
Speaker 1: going into commodities, right, Like most of the pension funds
Speaker 1: don't have the box thing. We have to be long communities,
Speaker 1: you know, like there's only long equities and bonds and
Speaker 1: they're looking at cup tools, but they have their litle commodities.
Speaker 1: So I think there will be more interesting commodities and
Speaker 1: there should be more investment um to to eventually bring
Speaker 1: more supply and to to be able to we stand
Speaker 1: against shocks requescying today. You know, this is a theme
Speaker 1: that comes up over and over again on on our episodes.
Speaker 1: Which is under investment? And you mentioned that some of
Speaker 1: the OPEC plus countries, particularly in Africa, we're not even
Speaker 1: able to sell as much oil as they were allotted
Speaker 1: because they didn't have the capacity. Can you talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about sort of across commodities, this is how
Speaker 1: sort of under investment are weally? And then how long
Speaker 1: is this cycle? Like are we going to see an
Speaker 1: increased investment cycle for five a decade to come? Like
Speaker 1: what is the sort of flip side of this decade
Speaker 1: of under investment gonna look at as every every country
Speaker 1: wants to sort of beef up it beef up its
Speaker 1: domestic capacity. So for agricultural products it's pretty fast, like
Speaker 1: within a year you can change things. But for metals
Speaker 1: it takes anywhere between seven and fifteen years. So you
Speaker 1: have to to build new minds. Um well, I think,
Speaker 1: and then you have to exploit those minds. But I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that there will be a different lengths of
Speaker 1: the cycle of when there's a shortage and when there's
Speaker 1: no shortage. So you know, in the past it could
Speaker 1: take quite a few years before getting the approval to
Speaker 1: build a mine, and that will probably be much faster
Speaker 1: now going forward when we'll get much higher prices, But
Speaker 1: only you know, it's going to be at least five
Speaker 1: years before the decision when the company decides to bring
Speaker 1: the production of subtle metals or minerals up and when
Speaker 1: that supply will come. So there's no like short term
Speaker 1: institution in terms of getting more metals for next year
Speaker 1: or in two years. It tends to be more like
Speaker 1: five years plus down the road. For oil outside of USHL,
Speaker 1: it's similar um it's for any any new projects journally
Speaker 1: today would bring oil supply in seven years time. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of hesitation about going to invest in
Speaker 1: those long lead time projects today because you get all
Speaker 1: comes out in nine twenty thirty. People don't know what
Speaker 1: the demand levels will be by then. So I think
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of twacky in the long term to
Speaker 1: bring two I mean yeah, in the short term, to
Speaker 1: bring more more, more production. Only the US has a
Speaker 1: shorter circle of probably twelve before the decision to increase
Speaker 1: capex and getting more oil because they know where the
Speaker 1: oils have, all the infrastructures, they know, you know, they
Speaker 1: about the uh enough kind of capacity from the service
Speaker 1: companies to to actually bring bring that toil. So I
Speaker 1: would expect more coming from the US in the next
Speaker 1: few years and then from the rest of the world
Speaker 1: a bit later. Um, but I think we'll have to
Speaker 1: live with how your prices to keep you know, demand down,
Speaker 1: to keep to to be treated a bit more as
Speaker 1: a luxury product, and also to accelerate the energy transition.
Speaker 1: Just real quickly is the shortage of metals, I mean
Speaker 1: we hear about the same shortage we hear about obviously
Speaker 1: steel prices do then also trip up the ability to
Speaker 1: increase oil production. The fact that if you have tight
Speaker 1: commodity markets elsewhere, it makes new investment more difficult. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it does. Actually you you have I mean, as we
Speaker 1: saw last year, there's a lot of bottlenecks and you
Speaker 1: know everywhere, um due to COVID. And then once we
Speaker 1: get less supply of in the other communities and also
Speaker 1: very low unemployment number, you know, how to find the
Speaker 1: people and then to get all the technology you know,
Speaker 1: enough volume and at the white time to to to
Speaker 1: bring supply up. So it's going to be challeging any thing.
Speaker 1: Over the next ten years. Communities are gonna cap the
Speaker 1: community supply actually not only price, but level of supply
Speaker 1: will actually capt the type of economic goals we will
Speaker 1: be able to have. So I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people just assume we'll, you know, in their economic model,
Speaker 1: that we can have as most community as we want.
Speaker 1: Is just a question of demand, But no, I mean
Speaker 1: this time it will be supply constraints. I just want
Speaker 1: to go back to the idea of two d dollar
Speaker 1: per barrel oil because I'm sure some people who hear
Speaker 1: that number, um and think back to the previous record,
Speaker 1: which I think was almost a hundred and fifty dollars
Speaker 1: per barrel, They're going to be shocked and worried and
Speaker 1: wondering how exactly, you know, we get to a point
Speaker 1: in the market where oil can go up over a
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in less than a year potentially, can you
Speaker 1: maybe walk us through exactly what needs to happen in
Speaker 1: order to get to a number like that, Like, what
Speaker 1: exactly is the process that is going to take place
Speaker 1: in order to get to two hundred dollars per barrel? Okay,
Speaker 1: So I think it's um, you know, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of recently bias to people's mind. Johnny, we get choosed
Speaker 1: to with some prices. And at first we think andred
Speaker 1: is expensive, we complain, I mean once we let people
Speaker 1: in general complain, uh, and then they get used too hundred,
Speaker 1: and then they complain when it's one twenty, and then
Speaker 1: the complay went one forty. And but they get choosed
Speaker 1: to higher levels of the time. So the antiquation of
Speaker 1: it is still worth using this oil, you know. But
Speaker 1: and if you look at seems to certain an eight
Speaker 1: um so d and fifty dollars, then is two dollars
Speaker 1: today in two days dollars? If you as an inflation measure,
Speaker 1: you take the GDP global GDP flatter, then it's two twenty.
Speaker 1: So the way I think of it is, is it
Speaker 1: more bullish today's and then yes, it's more bullish today
Speaker 1: than then. And then we had USHL to compail us
Speaker 1: out a few years after in two thousand and ten eleven.
Speaker 1: This time we might not have it. So I think
Speaker 1: it's it's just people, you know, people slowly realizing that
Speaker 1: prices have to go up and accepting it, and and
Speaker 1: and and then the price goes upen and all the
Speaker 1: usage of all that is not really necessarily get cut.
Speaker 1: So people were you know, driving for could end up
Speaker 1: taking the bus intead of taking the car, or people
Speaker 1: going for some long trip, well they do short trips.
Speaker 1: And the kind of things for for you demand to
Speaker 1: go down and for the market to be balanced. And
Speaker 1: the thing is if people if prices stay too low
Speaker 1: for too long, what happens is it can be what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen soon is that eventually you run out of
Speaker 1: inventories to deliver on the screen, and then the price
Speaker 1: can go anywhere. So it's very important that the price
Speaker 1: moved in line with fundamentals so that we don't run
Speaker 1: out of inventors eventually, because then it goes to you
Speaker 1: know anything, it can go anywhere um as a price.
Speaker 1: So I think that the process is that people you
Speaker 1: know generally get get used to it little by little um.
Speaker 1: And also you know, the economy is taking less oil
Speaker 1: per unit of GDP, so today for one unit of GDP,
Speaker 1: where we're using fifteen percent less oil than in in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. So also that justifies you know
Speaker 1: the fact that maybe to have the equionomy to have
Speaker 1: the same impact on the economy at the high price
Speaker 1: of two thousand and eight when it was one fifty
Speaker 1: might be actually closer today. So that's the way I
Speaker 1: think of it, And that's jolly. People get you know,
Speaker 1: they don't know, they get used to new prices and
Speaker 1: then accept it and and it is what you know.
Speaker 1: That's why it's a it's a long process. And and
Speaker 1: demand doesn't you know, go down right away because there's
Speaker 1: not a lot of there's no no identity. Really, yeah,
Speaker 1: it feels like this is a lesson that everyone is
Speaker 1: learning all at the same time. Pierre, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for coming on all thoughts. Really appreciate you taking
Speaker 1: the time during this very busy moment in markets to
Speaker 1: give us your thoughts, my pleasure. Thanks for patrinity, and
Speaker 1: you'll have a good rest of the day and good
Speaker 1: luck everything. Thanks Joe. I mean, I thought that was
Speaker 1: a very thoughtful conversation that actually wrapped up a lot
Speaker 1: of the different strands that we've been dealing with in
Speaker 1: separate episodes. But the thing that I keep coming back
Speaker 1: to is this idea that you know, any problem that
Speaker 1: can be solved with money probably isn't that big of
Speaker 1: a problem, which is actually, now that I think about it,
Speaker 1: a very mmt thing to say. But coming over to
Speaker 1: the dark set. That's not what I mean at all,
Speaker 1: but it is true that you know, even if you
Speaker 1: throw a lot of money at this problem, you know,
Speaker 1: you can't make the oil producers necessarily drill. Like it
Speaker 1: takes a while to ramp up capacity to build out
Speaker 1: alternative energy sources. And when you have a big shock
Speaker 1: like we just saw in Russia, that I mean, it
Speaker 1: just sort of destabilizes everything and it creates even more
Speaker 1: lead times that are very difficult to deal with. No,
Speaker 1: I think I had the exact same thought, And maybe
Speaker 1: it was like when he pointed out that, you know,
Speaker 1: we could be looking at seven year cycles for something
Speaker 1: like ramping up medals. And of course we're talking a
Speaker 1: lot about oil, but we saw the price of nickel
Speaker 1: go absolutely wild over this past week, and we're gonna
Speaker 1: need regardless of what happens right now, we're gonna need
Speaker 1: more nickel and other sort of other and other specific
Speaker 1: medals for car batteries and d vs, etcetera. The commodity
Speaker 1: that's in short of supply is kind of a cliche
Speaker 1: kind of galaxy brain is time, and that is like
Speaker 1: the one thing that no amount of money can fix.
Speaker 1: There's just a certain amount of time it takes to
Speaker 1: build a mind, and there's no immediate supply response. You know,
Speaker 1: maybe shale can ramp up with the next six months,
Speaker 1: but they're all kinds of other things they can't. I mean,
Speaker 1: the other thing that was quite worrying. So obviously it's
Speaker 1: concerning whenever anyone says two for barrel oil is a possibility.
Speaker 1: But the other thing that struck me was this idea
Speaker 1: of maybe something happens in the actual commodities market sort
Speaker 1: of similar to what we saw in March or April,
Speaker 1: but in reverse. So you know, someone can't ship out
Speaker 1: physical delivery of oil that they that they owe to,
Speaker 1: you know, to fulfill a futures contract, and at that
Speaker 1: point you get like a very big squeeze upwards in
Speaker 1: the price. It feels like that's a possibility. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: thought that was really interesting him talking about the scenario
Speaker 1: in which Russian oil could be out of the market
Speaker 1: for a long time. And so you have these companies
Speaker 1: self sanctioning, people call it or withdrawing, maybe partly for
Speaker 1: pr reasons, because they don't want to be perceived or
Speaker 1: in fact do not want to be a part of
Speaker 1: helping fund this war and then the oil piles up
Speaker 1: the docks at the ships, there's no more, and then
Speaker 1: you have to turn off production because there's literally no
Speaker 1: more place to story. And then you automatically, regardless of
Speaker 1: what happens, get this very long lead time before that
Speaker 1: supply can come on again. And I also thought it
Speaker 1: was interesting and this is gonna be a big question.
Speaker 1: Like the other side of the sanctions, Pierre's argument is
Speaker 1: that it will be very hard to lift them under
Speaker 1: the Putin administration. Is something to think about in terms
Speaker 1: of what are we looking at in terms of time frame. Again,
Speaker 1: I was about to say it goes back to time,
Speaker 1: because even if everything was resolved tomorrow, you know, in
Speaker 1: a ceasefire was actually declared, it seems very unlikely that
Speaker 1: you're going to get a complete roll back very quickly
Speaker 1: of everything that's just happened. From a sanctions perspective, under
Speaker 1: investment rules everything around me, I feel like every story
Speaker 1: comes back to that and the point about OPEC not
Speaker 1: even be able able to you know, normally we think
Speaker 1: of OPEC or OPEC plus members is cheating, always trying
Speaker 1: to sell more oil than they have, whereas right now
Speaker 1: the problem seems to be the opposite. All right, let's
Speaker 1: leave it there. All right, this has been another episode
Speaker 1: of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe
Speaker 1: Why Isn't All? You can follow me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: the Stalwart. Follow our guest Pierre on d Round. He's
Speaker 1: at on Durron Pierre and I want to thank our
Speaker 1: producers call It Tipton and Magnus Hendrickson. Follow the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: head of podcast Francesco lead at Francesca Today, and check
Speaker 1: out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle
Speaker 1: at podcasts. Thanks for listening.