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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast, the live version if

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Speaker 1: you're listening to us on AMP the volume in podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of The Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike Padre might be f

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Speaker 1: f professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Buddy, I can already

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Speaker 1: tell that you're nervous about the fact we are live,

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Speaker 1: because normally you'll be like, Chad, how you doing, buddy,

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Speaker 1: and you've got a little bit of something to say,

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Speaker 1: but you're so nervous that you're gonna get fired for

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Speaker 1: what you're saying on live radio. All you could say

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Speaker 1: was how you doing, Buddy. I actually don't even care

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Speaker 1: if I get fired, but it's more like it might

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Speaker 1: about to just ruin my life. I mean people nowadays,

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Speaker 1: can't you for the simplest things. Chad knows. I think

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Speaker 1: jokes are meant to push boundaries. I go over the

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Speaker 1: line plenty of times and Matt Mitchell luckily cuts most

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Speaker 1: of it out. Now there is no rip chord. I

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Speaker 1: can ask you where your political views are? Are you

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Speaker 1: with scientologist Chad? But I think we can just do

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Speaker 1: sharp calls either way. Nothing's really gonna change from the show.

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Speaker 1: I just might if I joke pops in my head,

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Speaker 1: I might repeat it before I actually just say it.

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Speaker 1: We're usually I would just say it without thinking, so

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Speaker 1: that will probably the biggest change. Fortunately, producer Matt Mitchell

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Speaker 1: has a pause button. It's like S and L. We've

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Speaker 1: got a seven second delay. I can't do it. We'll

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Speaker 1: do it live. We'll do it lovey. Hey, thanks chat,

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Speaker 1: Thanks Bill, O'Reilly. This is the producer Matt. As Chad

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Speaker 1: alluded to. Exciting announcement moving forward, all episodes of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites will be available live as they record. Our corporate overlords,

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Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network, have struck a deal with AMP,

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Speaker 1: a new live listening platform from Amazon, so you can

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Speaker 1: listen to all of these episodes with Chad and Simon

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Speaker 1: as they record every Tuesday and Thursday. So you've got

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Speaker 1: three ways to listen. You can go to the Apple

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Speaker 1: Store and download the free AMP app, which is available

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Speaker 1: on Apple devices, or you can access the web version

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Speaker 1: which is on amp dot com, and you'll be searching

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Speaker 1: for at the Favorites, which is our channel, or you

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Speaker 1: can use any Alexa enabled devices and just say hey, Alexa,

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Speaker 1: play the Favorites on AMP. The show records every Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and Thursday. Tuesdays, it will record just after one thirty

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern time, and on Thursday mornings, it will record

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Speaker 1: just after eleven a m. Eastern Time. Again, that is

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Speaker 1: Tuesday's at one thirty and Thursdays at eleven a m.

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Speaker 1: So if you guys want to join us live, that's great.

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Speaker 1: If you don't care about any of this, the podcast

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Speaker 1: version normal version of this show will have no changes whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: It will be available just about midnight every Tuesday and

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Speaker 1: Thursday night. Thanks again for listening. I hope to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of you on our new AMP live feeds.

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Speaker 1: And for those of you thinking about betting the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: remember that the Buffalo Bills are America's most popular, best

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Speaker 1: and most cherished franchise, and I'll be gorging myself on

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Speaker 1: the tears of Kansas City fans come this time on Monday,

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Speaker 1: Go Bills. Um. You mentioned sharp calls. Of course we

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Speaker 1: will get the sharp calls in this edition of the

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Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast. Reminder here's the rundown for today. We will

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Speaker 1: try to get closer to finishing our final five, which

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Speaker 1: we will put into the Action Network app, the free

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Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app on Sunday around noon. You

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Speaker 1: can follow us the Phaves five and the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: Simon and I usually call each other after we um

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Speaker 1: do our show Convinced Me, which is all so alive

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app on Action Network YouTube on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Action Network HQ. So we will get to

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Speaker 1: our final five. We will get to our big balls

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Speaker 1: better the week. I got a pretty good feeling. I

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Speaker 1: know what it's going to be, and I'm actually feeling

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Speaker 1: really good about it. We'll do some scooch Roulette, we'll

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Speaker 1: do our money line, Underdog round Robin parlay, and of

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Speaker 1: course we will start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 1: I'm talking telephone right, Yeah, a lot of people are

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Speaker 1: hoping it's like last week where I'm getting some big bets.

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Speaker 1: I get big bets from different groups every week, it's

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Speaker 1: just certain groups where those are the ones that make

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Speaker 1: you pause because you know it's obviously a key position.

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Speaker 1: So none of those this week. I mean, I got

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Speaker 1: a couple of games. We're about to talk about where

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Speaker 1: you know, these groups have hit big, but nothing nothing

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Speaker 1: compared to what that was last week, So that that

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Speaker 1: was just one of those like I really had to

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Speaker 1: take a position because again we talked about Miami and

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Speaker 1: then obviously I learned quickly we were stepping in it

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Speaker 1: um this week. The biggest one that I think me

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Speaker 1: and you were going to disagree with them on is

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Speaker 1: they like the bills. UM, A bunch of different smart

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Speaker 1: groups of coming on the bills. They love the number,

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Speaker 1: they think the two and a half's grade number they like.

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Speaker 1: They still like him at three. UM. It's it's split

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Speaker 1: though where I know a couple of pros taking up

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Speaker 1: position on my homes, but it's not the extreme of

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Speaker 1: guys taking real money and put it on the bills

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Speaker 1: right now. So if you're trying to figure out what

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Speaker 1: side the professionals are on, I would say they feel

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Speaker 1: better about the bills, where I don't know how Chad feels.

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Speaker 1: I still feel like the chiefs are gonna be the

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Speaker 1: right side to take. Like I again, we'll break it down,

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Speaker 1: but well, let me just get my I'll quickly get

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Speaker 1: my opinion on this and we will break it down.

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Speaker 1: But it feels like if we're just looking at these

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Speaker 1: two teams on the if we're just looking at the

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Speaker 1: number and not the teams, you're automatically playing the inter doctor.

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Speaker 1: But we'll we'll dig deeper. What's your next one? Yes,

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Speaker 1: the most caveman level chat his spot on Uh, we

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Speaker 1: would definitely blindly would just take a home dog um

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Speaker 1: the next big one. I thought it was no surprise

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Speaker 1: because we had touched on it. The Saints. I knew Prue,

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Speaker 1: I knew the Pros are gonna love the Saints in

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Speaker 1: this position. It's just basically, we think something's wrong with that.

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Speaker 1: Since the offense we think we think whatever is going

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Speaker 1: on with Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow just is not

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Speaker 1: jelling right now. And the Saints team again with Hill

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Speaker 1: back there, with Andy Dalton, they just feel like they

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Speaker 1: know exactly what they are and he saw this week.

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Speaker 1: They're getting guys back. I mean, Michael Thomas is back practicing.

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Speaker 1: That's big for them getting him back. He's obviously still

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Speaker 1: does what he does. You watched him earlier in the year.

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Speaker 1: He gets open. Like again, it doesn't matter how all

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Speaker 1: these guys get if you can know how to make

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Speaker 1: and break out of routes. It's such a key thing

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Speaker 1: so that numbers are fluctuating. I was shocked to see.

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Speaker 1: I woke up one morning, was it yesterday? It might

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Speaker 1: have been down to plus one and then shot back

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Speaker 1: up to plus two. And that's back one and a half.

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Speaker 1: So if thinkly a battle of the pros versus Joe's

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Speaker 1: on that one and then the next one again no surprise.

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Speaker 1: I felt like right when the game came out, I

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Speaker 1: knew that pros were gonna love it and that I

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Speaker 1: was gonna take a position with him. The Eagles. The

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Speaker 1: Eagles were down to four and a half. You saw

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Speaker 1: a really sharp group come in heavy. They took it

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Speaker 1: at the four and a half. They shot it right

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Speaker 1: up to six six and a half. In some books,

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Speaker 1: don't feel as confident at that number. I like it

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Speaker 1: still right, we still take it there. But I mean

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Speaker 1: the four and a half, the five and a half

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Speaker 1: we talked of all the time. That's that's under the sixth,

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Speaker 1: the key number. That's just a great number. And there

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Speaker 1: was no surprise. They waited until it was official Cooper

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Speaker 1: is gonna be the quarterback, and they pounced. So yeahin

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Speaker 1: those are games real touch on. Um, I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: out probably on having the Chiefs in our contest. Will

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Speaker 1: see how Chad feels. Um, just because again I know

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Speaker 1: these smart groups. Yeah, nothing crazy money wise, but enough

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Speaker 1: like six figures better enough on the bills that give

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Speaker 1: me pause. It's like, Okay, clearly this game is more more,

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Speaker 1: more of a coin flip. And I thought it was

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Speaker 1: taking the plus three with the Chiefs at home. H

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Speaker 1: I should remind people that our foxhole bet was the

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Speaker 1: Saints plus two. Still love it, falling in love with

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Speaker 1: it a little bit more every day. We'll dig it

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Speaker 1: a little bit deeper. Simon says, what it was Atlanta

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Speaker 1: plus five and a half, and the exact decision by

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Speaker 1: me was Cleveland minus three. We didn't get any conversations

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Speaker 1: about that, but you and I will dig a little

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Speaker 1: bit deeper on those games. Um, let's start with Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: So Atlanta plus five and a half, it's your Simon says,

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Speaker 1: I really liked it at five and a half. I

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Speaker 1: think the lean for the wise guys might be on

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Speaker 1: the favor here. I think based on the fact that

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Speaker 1: you're getting a Niners defense that isn't just strong against

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Speaker 1: the rush number one against the rush and Atlanta, if

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Speaker 1: there anything, they're a rush dominant offense. And then I

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Speaker 1: think there's some law of averages regression to the mean

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Speaker 1: in play here where there could be concern. Can you

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Speaker 1: keep rolling it over in Atlanta? They're now five and

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Speaker 1: oh against the spread? Is that just going to come

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Speaker 1: back to earth for them? All of that said, I

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Speaker 1: still like it when a five and a half, I

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Speaker 1: just understand why people might have a leaning on the Niners.

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Speaker 1: What say you, Simon? I honestly think it's kind of

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Speaker 1: a perfect number. It's like every book knows that every

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Speaker 1: Joe Schmo will just throw uh san Fran into a teaser.

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Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you are a good team look viewed as

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Speaker 1: a top three, top four team right now in the NFC.

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Speaker 1: I just think people don't realize how injured they are.

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Speaker 1: They just have a lot of injuries on that team.

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Speaker 1: Where Yeah, to meet Quitel Patterson's a big deal for Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: They're just three new guys in there. Apparently this run

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Speaker 1: scheme works and it doesn't really matter here when you've

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Speaker 1: got a guy like Marioda that can also run with it,

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Speaker 1: that's always taken one defender away that like that's why

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Speaker 1: that read options such a big deal. So I get

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Speaker 1: the pause chat because I guess you're looking for more movement.

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Speaker 1: I just think that's a smart number. Um, it touched

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Speaker 1: five and then it bounced back up to five and

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Speaker 1: a half. I have no conviction with Atlanta, Like it's

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Speaker 1: just one. There's a couple of games this week. Um,

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Speaker 1: I just feel like we have no choice and we

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Speaker 1: have to bet, Like there's just certain numbers, like this

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Speaker 1: is one of these few home dogs where it's like,

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Speaker 1: you're right, maybe this should be seven, seven and a

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Speaker 1: half because Atlanta covered last week. It's not just because

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Speaker 1: they're five and oh E T y s it's not.

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Speaker 1: But the public isn't actually hammering this number. It's kind

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Speaker 1: of been flipped, um mixed. Depends on the books you

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Speaker 1: go to and look at their numbers. It's spoke between

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Speaker 1: the public and the sharps um sides and tickets. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I still like Atlanta, but yeah, am

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Speaker 1: I shocked it's sitting there still five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Not really just because of the teaser factor. Again, that's

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Speaker 1: just such a big thing at the factor into nowadays

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Speaker 1: where it's like, yeah, they just gonna tease it down

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Speaker 1: to the to the minus half or one or plus

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Speaker 1: one wherever it is, and they'll just take the four

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Speaker 1: hours to win out right. I definitely still like Atlanta

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Speaker 1: plus five and a half? Do I like it as

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Speaker 1: much as some other games? Uh? That will keep it

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Speaker 1: in our final five? I'm not quite sure yet, depends

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Speaker 1: on where the numbers end up midweek. Let's go back

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Speaker 1: to the Saints for a second. I love the Saints

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Speaker 1: here doesn't love them. Here's what's really interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: And I was listening to um listening to the Action

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Speaker 1: Network podcast with Stucky and Chris Raybon earlier this morning,

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Speaker 1: and they're killing it this year. Uh and stuck. He

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Speaker 1: pointed out that the Bengals this year, their offensive line

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Speaker 1: is so bad that even the guys on the edges

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Speaker 1: who were supposed to be coming in and rebuilt offensive line,

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Speaker 1: are rating out as bottom ten for their position along

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Speaker 1: the offensive line. And while the Saints haven't been getting

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Speaker 1: a lot of pressure, they still have really good defensive ends.

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Speaker 1: And if there ever is a game where they could

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Speaker 1: get themselves healthy to start forcing more pressure, it's this game.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing that was really interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow we all know is amazing against the blitz.

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Speaker 1: When he's not getting blitzed, he's a pretty average to

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Speaker 1: below average QB rating, and the Saints are not a

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Speaker 1: blitzing team. So this just feels like schematically a great

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Speaker 1: spot for the Saints, and it feels like a good

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Speaker 1: spot for a team that's now been home for two

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Speaker 1: straight weeks after playing in London, and the Bengals are

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Speaker 1: still getting sort of a post Super Bowl Joe Burrow bounce.

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Speaker 1: And it's funnyhen you just read a stalic that It's like,

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Speaker 1: imagine knowing that you have a guy that does really

258
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Speaker 1: well against the blitz but terrible against just four rushers,

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00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,440
Speaker 1: and you still can't fix that old line. So teams

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Speaker 1: don't even need to blitz. They can just keep sending

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Speaker 1: four again. Pressure on Joe. Um. Yeah, the Saints one.

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Speaker 1: I would say, I really liked it. When I saw

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Speaker 1: the number came out, I knew I was gonna be

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Speaker 1: on it, just because like the Banga should not be

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Speaker 1: favor in this position. This is basically the public decide

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Speaker 1: in the line here. But I don't know, It's like

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Speaker 1: the more the more you read, the more you see

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Speaker 1: of Joe I just feel like they're failing. Like again,

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Speaker 1: another team that's just failed. Like you just talked about

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Speaker 1: the old line. They're probably these guys in but the

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Speaker 1: system is clearly not working, like they're still getting a pressure.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, the Saints number, we were obviously hoping to

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Speaker 1: get a better number on it, but plus two is fine.

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Speaker 1: Like again, anything above a pick to me is a

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00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 1: good number in this matchup. So in our contest, I

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Speaker 1: knew we were probably gonna agree on this and have

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Speaker 1: this one in there. It's just I just feel bad

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Speaker 1: for Joe. It's like this should be, this should just

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Speaker 1: be such a better season. They had the money, they

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Speaker 1: had the capital, they went on and signed the guys

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Speaker 1: for the old line, and here again we're through five weeks.

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Speaker 1: It's just not working still. So I'm I'm a hundred

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00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 1: done with you that the Saints just felt like me

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Speaker 1: and you were gonna be on no matter what. You're

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00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,760
Speaker 1: response is so and the look on your face right

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00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,080
Speaker 1: now and the way you're playing with your hair, it's

287
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: so filled with anxiety. I'm so like, I felt like

288
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,720
Speaker 1: you should be saying, yeah, of course this is going

289
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,240
Speaker 1: to be. This is a no brainer. By the way,

290
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,040
Speaker 1: all respect. I know Joe Burrow is our teammate on

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Speaker 1: the volume. I don't give a fuck if he's having

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00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,080
Speaker 1: a hard time. I don't give a fuck if like

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00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 1: he's not getting along with Zach Taylor, Like does he

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00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 1: care of our numbers tank in this podcast? No, it's

295
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 1: a zero sum game. Right now. The Saints are two

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Speaker 1: point underdogs at home with a better scheme and a

297
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 1: really good defense and Michael Thomas coming back and Alvin

298
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 1: Camara two weeks back and getting healthier. Give me the

299
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 1: Saints plus two. That's it. I don't need anxiety. Yeah, well,

300
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 1: you're not being crazy money on the minds feel mine is?

301
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 1: It feels like it's too easy chat like that. That's

302
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 1: my issue here. It's like this feels too easy, and

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00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:03,480
Speaker 1: that's you moments. I've increased my units after week four,

304
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,960
Speaker 1: after we I wasn't even trying to unit. I was

305
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 1: just just I just feel like you needed up in

306
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,000
Speaker 1: a little bit. Uh. I can't ask you can't text

307
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 1: my runners say bet this certain amount without him being like,

308
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 1: who is this for? Your little brother? Like I needed

309
00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 1: to be a little more ask any questions. It wasn't

310
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 1: even trying to unit him. It was just a simple

311
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 1: I can't text on me anount you said, STI you

312
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 1: can't shame my unit. Um. Alright, so we love the Saints.

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Speaker 1: We still like Atlanta. Uh, let's talk about Cleveland because

314
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 1: it's a really interesting matchup. It doesn't make sense to

315
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,360
Speaker 1: me why this game open to two and a half.

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00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 1: I've moved up to three. I think it's still the

317
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 1: right side. Uh. Cleveland has the best running offense in

318
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 1: the NFL. Right Nick Chubb is the best running back.

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00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, his yards after contact would make him the

320
00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 1: fourth highest total for rushing yards in the NFL. Right now,

321
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 1: he's leading the league in rushing. He's tied with Sakwon Barkley.

322
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 1: But if you took if you only counted his yards

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00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 1: after contact fifteen, he'd be fourth in the NFL and rushing.

324
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:11,919
Speaker 1: The problem with the Browns is they can't play defense.

325
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 1: So essentially we liked this game. At least I did.

326
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 1: I bet at a two and a half because I

327
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 1: was getting two relatively evenly matched teams and I was

328
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 1: getting the home team at less than a field goal.

329
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 1: I still probably let play Cleveland minus three. Yeah, it's

330
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 1: again two and a half. I got a no issue

331
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,400
Speaker 1: with it. Um, I feel like the books are kind

332
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 1: of looking at what you just said that if Belichick

333
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: can run the ball right and control of the clock,

334
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 1: just what the exact same thing that Browns want to do.

335
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 1: And this number is good, like this game will come

336
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,679
Speaker 1: down to most likely a field goal. Um, so it is.

337
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: It is is a little worries somewhere. The more you

338
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: look at this Browns team, that's the glaren thing that

339
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 1: pops out as you can run the ball on them.

340
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what the Patriots need to do

341
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: with the rookie quarterback starting here on the road. So

342
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 1: still the Browns, I'm kind of with each other, Like

343
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,760
Speaker 1: I would still bet it. How the Patriots dominated Detroit

344
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 1: last week in the trenches, what's to say they can't

345
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: turn around to do that against Cleveland. It's all about

346
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 1: Bill taking the ball out of the rookie's hands. And

347
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 1: last year with Mac he did as much as he could.

348
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 1: They made it to the playoffs that way. So it's

349
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 1: just he kind of hasn't kind of knows he needs

350
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 1: to do with these young quarterbacks and put them in

351
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,719
Speaker 1: the best positions. But to me, it's just like her

352
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 1: said's better than people realize this Browns team has been

353
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,479
Speaker 1: really good. Again, if you look at them on paper,

354
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,199
Speaker 1: it could easily five and oh. Every game they've lost,

355
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 1: they've lost by the last second field goal or a

356
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 1: last second touchdown from Joe Flacco. It's like they kind

357
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 1: of had these flutie losses share and they just played tough, tough,

358
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 1: tight games. I gotta know, is what you're saying. Check like,

359
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: I still don't take it. I just know means you're

360
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 1: gonna come Sunday and we're just gonna be like, should

361
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 1: we take that or should we just take one of

362
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 1: these eight point dogs that we like. And that's always

363
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 1: the hardest part about doing this. I think we could

364
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: do both. I'm not letting you get both, I'll tell

365
00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,399
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403
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: they've announced their starting Skyler Thompson. We said earlier in

404
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: the week we wanted people to wait to take Miami

405
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: before we saw who the quarterback was. Skyler Thompson gets announced,

406
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 1: and also the ping pong tables get removed, which clearly

407
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 1: the Dolphins now I mean business. The line shot up

408
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: to three and a half. As soon as it shot

409
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,160
Speaker 1: out to three and a half, I bet the Dolphins

410
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Wow. I wish I had

411
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: the confidence you have. Again, I'll bably end up on this.

412
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: I'm hoping to get to the four. Um Like the

413
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: pub will just come in heavy on the Vikings against

414
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 1: a third string quarterback, and I'll take that value. I

415
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: don't know how to cap the game though, because to me,

416
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 1: the way they're talking is if is if no matter what, Um,

417
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: even if Teddy gets healthy, Bridgewater won't I'm gonna be

418
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: the quarterback. I just feel like he's playing mind games.

419
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 1: Like McDaniels just feels like he's playing mind games right

420
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: now with us in the media and the other team.

421
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: It's gotta be Teddy, right. If Teddy comes back and

422
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: he's cleared, they can't just they wouldn't just start that

423
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: kid that really literally could not really do anything against

424
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: that Jets team last week. Um, that would be bizarre

425
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: to me. Again, we like the matchup. The Vikings have

426
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: done a lot of traveling. They just flow a way

427
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 1: back for England, came home, played a game, They're flying

428
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: down to Florida. They'd be like, we're talking about that,

429
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: but in the sun for this game. A lot of

430
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 1: things where we just like Miami. So I'm kind of

431
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 1: with you. Chad, I'll blindly bet this at the number.

432
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: I'll get it whenever it gets to four through whoever

433
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 1: the quarterback is, I just don't know. It's doing of

434
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: my five biggest bets this week because it's just I

435
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: don't know, really had to model out this quarterback that

436
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 1: I really have no numbers on. Um. It's just it's

437
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 1: kind of the tallest up situation here. I will look.

438
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: I will remind everybody that right now the only game

439
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: we love, despite you didn't show many enthusiasm for it

440
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: because you just feel sad for Joe Burrow I do

441
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: it is the Saints plus two again we love right

442
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: now again. They talked about that there's a lot that

443
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 1: I've got. I've got a list of six, I've got

444
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: a list of six teens, seven that we haven't talked

445
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 1: about yet that we'll get to. But these were like

446
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 1: when we talked on Tuesday, I'm going on the list

447
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: of the games that we loved the most. And this

448
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: is interesting just how things evolve over the course of

449
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: the week. So the other one, Eagles minus four and

450
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 1: a half. We talked about it. It's now up to

451
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 1: six in some places. We both bet it. Eagles minus

452
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: four and a half. Um. Look, I'm just not a

453
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: buyer on the Cowboys. They have an amazing defense, but

454
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: they've beat up during this Cooper Rush rush. They've beat

455
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 1: up on a Washington A line that stinks, a Cincinnati

456
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: O line that stinks, a rams O line that stinks. Okay,

457
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 1: that doesn't impress me. Against the Ramps, they had fewer

458
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: first downs, they had more penalties, They average few yards

459
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: per play, They had multiple fumbles, they recovered. Cooper Rush

460
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 1: completed ten passes. Tony Pollard had a touchdown for fifty

461
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 1: seven yards, they had a fumble recovery for a touchdown,

462
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: and they blocked a punt that they converted into a

463
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: field goal. Like, this is not a dominant team in

464
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: any way. The Eagles kind of are a dominant team.

465
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 1: So I see why the numbers moved from four and

466
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: a half and higher. I think in the context if

467
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: we got to play a midweek number of six or

468
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: six and a half, it makes me a little bit

469
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: more nervous. But I still think the Eagles win this

470
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 1: game pretty handily. Yeah, and again it was no. I

471
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: was not surprised at all to hear that a bunch

472
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 1: of professional groups took a position on the Eagles that

473
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,199
Speaker 1: that was just a really good number of four and

474
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: a half. My biggest reason I didn't really move on

475
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 1: it was just this Eagles team in the second half.

476
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: I just it's real like them struggling in the second half.

477
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: It's been five weeks. Every single game they've done it,

478
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 1: like they led teams back into these matchups and it's

479
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 1: it's definitely an issue. So four and a half I

480
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: love it, Like I feel like you just talked about

481
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 1: six six and a half. You definitely need to think,

482
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: is there is there value still on this number? Um,

483
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: I would still bet it, obviously, I still like it,

484
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: but I was gonna make one of my bigger bets

485
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: to speak of four and a half. I missed that.

486
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 1: So I still love the Eagles, still take a position

487
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: on them. Don't mind taking the contest either. Even if

488
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: it's six we could talk about. I wouldn't hate it. Um,

489
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: it's just it's just unluckily the fact that you know

490
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 1: the Cowboys usually their public darlings, I thought the public

491
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 1: would be all over them in this position against this

492
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: Eagles team that had such a bad game last week

493
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: against Arizona. So it's interesting what you just talked about.

494
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: Now I'm looking at our site. A lot of the

495
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 1: money late has come in heavy on this Eagles team,

496
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: so they're looking like the public side right now. Saints

497
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: plus two love it. Let's talk about the Steelers plus

498
00:25:55,760 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: eight and a half because could it be? What would be?

499
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: Is it our big balls better the week? I'll do it,

500
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna put it all on you. If you

501
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: if you if you want me like I stood last

502
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: week with the Jets in my heart, if you want

503
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: to stay with the Steelers in your heart, I'll do

504
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: the big balls. I'm gonna bet them. I just I

505
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 1: can't find any logical reason other than the fact that

506
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: who the hell are the Bucks to be getting in

507
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: the half against anybody? They just they're just not right

508
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: right now. Um, But I'll give it to you, Chack.

509
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: You've got some big balls. Making it your big balls

510
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: bet because I just this. This Steeler's team looks absolutely

511
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 1: broken right now in this spot. Historically, forget about, you know,

512
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: using the Action Network Action Labs database going back twenty

513
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: something years, millions of data points, teams in this spot,

514
00:26:53,080 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: they get blown out. They're heavy underdogs, and they're getting

515
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: fewer than thirty of the bets they covered a rate

516
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: historically right. Want to narrow it down even further, week

517
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: six dogs off a loss of seven or more covering

518
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: a week six dogs below against the spread since two

519
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: thousand five covering. I get it, like it's a bylow spot.

520
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: I'm a little and you just have to make like

521
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: you're just pretty. That's that's what makes it, the big

522
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: balls better the leak it is. It is by definition

523
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 1: we have to do. You gotta hold your nose, You've

524
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 1: gotta buy load, you gotta sack up. You gotta bet

525
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: the Steelers a plus eight and a half? Like do

526
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: you think this takes more balls? Do you think taking

527
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: the Panthers with a new head coach and a no

528
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: name at quarterback takes bigger balls? I just think that

529
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 1: was the other one I was thinking for our big balls,

530
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 1: But like, I just think that it takes much bigger

531
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: balls to bet a team that looks as bad as

532
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 1: the Dealers do to the Panthers at like what is

533
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 1: it plus ten right now? To take them against a

534
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: team that nobody has a lot of faith in in

535
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: the rams, that has looked really bad. Everybody's going to

536
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: be on the panthers. That doesn't take balls. I didn't split,

537
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: but that's fair. Takes balls to bet that it is.

538
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: And I won't take any of your glory if it hits.

539
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: This is This is because I am betting, But this

540
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: is truly Chad's moment. You're taking him as big balls,

541
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 1: but this is one where your runner goes man, whoever,

542
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: whoever you were talking to about that one. That guy,

543
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: he's got serious, serious courage, not at all. They would

544
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: all love that bet. That's a bet a bunch of

545
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: us are probably gonna make this week. I'm just saying

546
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: it's just one of those where it's like I got nothing.

547
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: Chad's exactly right, though, this is the spot play. This

548
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: is a trend play. The numbers back up to like

549
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: my numbers say, you're getting a good number here, but

550
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: it's like I have zero faith of going to the

551
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: window of this one, Like I got no faith going.

552
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: So what you're saying is you definitely do not want

553
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: to put this in the contest. Yeah, yeah, I again Sunday,

554
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: weird happens. I I don't sleep, so through the night

555
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 1: it could pop in my head. I can visualize it

556
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: and see it and be like you know what Chad

557
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: spot on. We'll throw it in there. But as we

558
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: sit here on Thursday morning, no, no way, all right,

559
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: how about Seattle Seahawks plus three? Here we go. That's

560
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: what I've been waiting on. Love Seattle settle. Yeah, I

561
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: love the matchup of the Seattle offense. I think Gino

562
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: is what number three and number four right now in

563
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: the league in q QBR rating and a bunch of

564
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 1: other past metrics. The guys on a roll there, his

565
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: outside weapons, DK metcalf locket healthy going up against the

566
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,719
Speaker 1: secondary of the Cardinals that has been absolutely terrible. They

567
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: give up the thirtieth most receiving yards right now. That's

568
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: a bad spot for this Cardinals seem to be put in.

569
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: And yeah, no shock. The public is coming heavy on

570
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: the Cardinals just because there there are on paper a

571
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: better team than the Seattle team. But I still think

572
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: they're just being under a cl team again, a home dog,

573
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: divisional dog. In this position. The books might be sucking

574
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: me and chat in We'll pay for it because this

575
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: this is usually really good to us taking this number

576
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: in this position. I'm happy to take Seattle on this spot,

577
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: especially coming off such a brutal non cover last week

578
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: when they should have covered, because we're getting a little

579
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: bit of value with just the fact that people lost

580
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: money on them last week. It doesn't make any sense

581
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: to me that Arizona is and this this line is

582
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: down to based off last year though there they made

583
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: the playoffs at their win total. Yeah, the line, the

584
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: line is down to two and a half. By the way,

585
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: it's no longer at three. Still take that two and

586
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: a half. I agree, Like, it doesn't make any sense

587
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: to me. You've got a better coach and Pete Carroll

588
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: right now, as you said, a better quarterback in Geno Smith,

589
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: better weapons on the edges, a better offensive line, a

590
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: more explosive passing offense, the second most explosive passing offense,

591
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: the most explosive passing on it might be number one

592
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and the second worst defense in defending

593
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 1: explosive past plays in Arizona. Um. Again, if we're playing

594
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: the blind game, you've got a short home dog in

595
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: a division game, you're gonna be Seattle yep. And again,

596
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: it's just there's a bunch of these bets this week.

597
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: I just felt like I didn't have a choice. That's

598
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: just automatically you just saw the number. It's like, well,

599
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: I already know inside I'm gonna be on and then

600
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: the numbers and the trends back it up and again

601
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: all the time. That's how you build out these things.

602
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: You just don't go off one thing. You're looking for

603
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 1: all of it connected. And that's definitely one of these

604
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: spots where Seattle I would love to fade them, um

605
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: because it's just been insane how good Gino has been.

606
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: But maybe Gino with the right pieces around him, this

607
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 1: is who he is. He's not that quarterback we saw

608
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: with the New York Chets. You know what he's amazing at.

609
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: He is so good at stepping up into the pocket,

610
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 1: towing the line of scrimmage, keeping his eyes down field,

611
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:04,479
Speaker 1: and finding a guy who's just raised beyond all the coverage.

612
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: And he's using all of it like he's been using

613
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: Will Disley is tight end and the DK Metcalf aspect

614
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: of it, where if he's in any type of trouble

615
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: and you know what, he needs to just get rid

616
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: of it on a third down. He's doing something I

617
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: wish all quarterbacks would do. If you have a big receiver,

618
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: just throw it to your guy up in the air,

619
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: he'll either get the ball or he'll bat it down

620
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 1: for you. Like that's just that's just that's something I'll

621
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: never get with these big receivers. Just like, just put

622
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 1: your guy in the position to win. And DK has

623
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: been winning for him, and like that's that's the crazy

624
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: part by the Seattle team. As much as we praise Russ,

625
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: it's like he actually make pretty good weapons around him

626
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: up there in Seattle. It wasn't just all about Russell

627
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: Wilson these last couple of years. Alright, So, uh, we

628
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: like Seattle. We like New Orleans as always. Uh, like

629
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles had a good number. We like the Eagles

630
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 1: that a good number. We still like Atlanta. But I'm

631
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: going to bring up a couple more teams. And if

632
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:55,719
Speaker 1: I don't bring up the guy at the games that

633
00:32:55,880 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: you've liked in the last forty eight hours, Uh, are

634
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: we liking the Jets against the Packers plus seven? Yes?

635
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: And still look like I'm at seven, like seven and

636
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 1: a half. I mean everyone in the world that's like

637
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: the you know, the guy that likes to get the

638
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: clicks and the likes on social media is like, did

639
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: you know the Green Bay after a loss is ten

640
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: and oh straight up and TENN S A T S

641
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: Like I get it. La Fleur bounces back after all

642
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: these losses. Let's go through this year. They only had

643
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: one loss the finally week that played against the Bears.

644
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: Remember what happened in that game, Chad pretty sure fields

645
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: scored and they would have covered in that game. So

646
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: I just have a worry now with this green Bay offense.

647
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: I just don't think it consistent enough to be favored

648
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: by this many points. On the flip side, I like

649
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: what the Jets have done, like they they they drafted,

650
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: well we already talked about I didn't see these kids

651
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: impacting this early. Sauce Gardner might be a top five

652
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 1: corner right now. The guy is legit a shut down corner. Again.

653
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: You can say it's not a big deal because they

654
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 1: don't have any receivers anyway on green Bay. It is

655
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 1: though they can just turn them. And there's actly what

656
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: Green Bay doesn't want to be, which is one dimensional.

657
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: They're just you have to run the ball. That's gonna

658
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: be easier to prep for. Weip. On the off sensive side,

659
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: they have a nice two head of running backs right now.

660
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,720
Speaker 1: They got Carter, they got the rookie Bryce that they drafted.

661
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,879
Speaker 1: Um Again, Hal Holding look good the first couple of weeks.

662
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: If you look at his numbers. Now, this rookie running

663
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: back for the Jets, he's improved every single week. And

664
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: that's something we're looking for as this season goes along.

665
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: Which guys aren't gonna be shook by the league? Which

666
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,959
Speaker 1: ones are gonna keep improving. That's big for this Jets team.

667
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: They need on identity. So again it's scary back in

668
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 1: his Zach Wilson. But at seven and a half, it's

669
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: still out there. That's seven and a half. Let's grab it.

670
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: You gotta grab it against the Green Bay team that's

671
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: just struggled this year. They the only team they really

672
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 1: dominated put away was the Bears, and we just touched

673
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: on it. The Bear is probably showingly lost by seven points.

674
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: So I think you're goetta good number of this Jets team.

675
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a public dog, but come on it. Yeah,

676
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 1: I think that we need to as the pre eminent

677
00:34:54,920 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: sports betting podcast in the world. You and I need

678
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: to make a rule un sample size, like, because there

679
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: are so many Yahoo's out there now who are claiming

680
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: to be sports betting experts. We're getting Matt Lafloor tenant

681
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: oh in his career, or we're getting you know, the

682
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: Packers have done this historically. Like that's all fucking bullshit.

683
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: Give me a sample size that is at least a

684
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: hundred games. Give me a sample size that shows consistency

685
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 1: during the modern era of football. Don't give me sample

686
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 1: sizes that include what the Packers have done in fifty years,

687
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 1: or what have happened what has happened in a single

688
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 1: season with a single player, Like it's just not big enough.

689
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: The variance is too high, there's no consistency to those trends. Like,

690
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: let's just be smart about it. We're not giving you

691
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 1: bullshit sample sizes on the favorites. I mean I will

692
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: if anyone gets has a good sample on its small

693
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 1: but it's winning, send it my way. I'm not like Chat.

694
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: I'll never shoot you away. I just want winners. I'm

695
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 1: a fucking pure You are, okay? Uh? Do we like

696
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: the Jets enough at seven and a half to put

697
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: them in the contest? I would? Again? Who knows what

698
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: can change? Again? I think I would too. If I

699
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: wake up Sunday morning and it's like nine even some

700
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: of the bets and ninety percent of the tickets around

701
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: the Jets and it's still sitting there at seven and

702
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 1: a half. Yes, people, there's no way Mitchell having our contest.

703
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 1: But if it's come down a little bit like again,

704
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: what I'm hoping to see, which means professional money is

705
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: coming on the Jets. That's that's what I'm looking for here,

706
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: because right now I haven't heard that many pros and

707
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: the Jets it feels like they got their money last

708
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: two weeks and they're just gonna sit this one out

709
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: where I think there's still value on fate in the

710
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 1: Screen Bay team. I'm so nervous about it. I have

711
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: my sports book app open right now here in the

712
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: state of Connecticut where it's legal, and I see the

713
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: seven and a half and I I'm having a hard

714
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 1: time pulling the trigger. This is the moment of truth

715
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 1: and I actually can't you know what, I can't do

716
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 1: it right now. That's how I feel every week I

717
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: bet them the Jets. That's just that feeling of the

718
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: betting legig. It's I'm so uncomfortable doing it right now.

719
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: But we'll leave it in the contest for now. Um Uh.

720
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: The other game I think we got to talk about

721
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 1: is the Jags against the Yeah, I loved it. We're

722
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: hoping to get the three. We both betted it two

723
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 1: and a half. Again. I was gonna really lay in

724
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: big money on this one if they got the three

725
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: and never did. Once again, the pros came in back

726
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: down to two, back down to one and a half

727
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: at some books, no surprise. It's just this. This is

728
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 1: definition of a pick um game. The Jaguars and the

729
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: more talented team, what they do well on defense is

730
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 1: exactly what the Colts want to do on offense. The

731
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,479
Speaker 1: Colts want to run the ball. Guess what. The Jags

732
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: are one of the best run defenses on football this year,

733
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: So bam, we just turned them into one dimensional Matt

734
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: Ryan needs to be stepping back passing. That's what you want. Again.

735
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: The Colds team, they might someone make the playoffs this

736
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: year because, like, I don't know how they're to two

737
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: and one. It's one of the more insane things that's

738
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: happened season, other than the Giants being four and one. Um,

739
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 1: I maybe I'm getting blind, like Chad said, maybe we're

740
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 1: blind to our Jaguars love. But I know a lot

741
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 1: of pros I love this number. I love the right

742
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: when it came out too. With the Jaguars team that

743
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,720
Speaker 1: just played terrible last week, should have covered against the Eagles,

744
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: they didn't write, they had four turnovers. So I do

745
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: think we're getting a nice by low position here. And

746
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: the fact that people are betting the Colts just because

747
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: they won last week and they think they're a better

748
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: team than the Jaguars is just again that's just the

749
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: public not really knowing what they're betting on. So I

750
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: do think we're getting a good number. An automatic playing

751
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 1: the contest will be the Jaguars. Yea as usual, Simon.

752
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: As it comes down to it, we're betting on uh,

753
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, you know Smith. We're betting on

754
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 1: the Saints. We don't know who the fund is playing

755
00:38:54,880 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: quarterback there um and uh we like it Land. Uh.

756
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,879
Speaker 1: We got four that we feel relatively good about. Five

757
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: we feel relatively good about. Uh. I got one more game.

758
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 1: I want to bring up, as I said, the listen

759
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: names you just read off. That's the list of names

760
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 1: you read when someone for the season that contest, right,

761
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 1: That's how we've been winning. Just areek quarterbacks. So one

762
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: more game I want to bring up, and then I

763
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 1: do want to talk about the Bills in the chiefs

764
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,760
Speaker 1: uh Denver Broncos five and a half at the Chargers.

765
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 1: I don't know how you don't bet the Broncos here?

766
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 1: Do we put it in the contest? I don't know,

767
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 1: But the Chargers are not that good of a team

768
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 1: and they're getting the benefit of the doubt if everyone

769
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: loves their roster. Everyone was high on them before the season.

770
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: The Broncos just consistently playing terribly. But you've got two

771
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 1: coaches that you can't count on, and you got about

772
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 1: two points two and a half points of value to me.

773
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: Um in this game, I feel like you have to

774
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: bet the Broncos. Yeah. I mean, I'm way offer. I

775
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 1: made it a way bigger number. Just because Russell Wilson

776
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: got that surgery this past week. I just can't let

777
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 1: that be a no big deal, Like that's a big deal.

778
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: It's a surgery and he's gonna turn around and play

779
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: a game seven days later. Um, we saw how a

780
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 1: major injury affected Herbert right. He did not look right

781
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 1: until a couple of weeks after that injury. It's these

782
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: guys are human like as much as much crap they

783
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: want to shoot him up with. That's that's real pain.

784
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 1: So I got no position on it. I told you

785
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys in the same view as you

786
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: chat they said, who the hell are the Chargers were

787
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: getting this many points against the divisional foe. Um, no, no,

788
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 1: no read for me on this one. Like I I

789
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Chargers, I'd like to charge it

790
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 1: in a simple fact that this Broncos team is kind

791
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 1: of real in here. But like you just said, it's

792
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 1: it's a hard person to doing right. I really want

793
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: to take a home favorite, home divisional favorite on a

794
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 1: money night game or all the money and all the

795
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on the Chargers. It's just not

796
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: gonna be a winning side usually for me. But um,

797
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: we'll be split on that one. Chat. You can take

798
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: your Broncos. I'll fade them. Um another week, I'll let

799
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 1: rust see if you can finally look right. Because as

800
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: much as people want to blame the surgery, he missed

801
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 1: a wide open guy on that slant route to win

802
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 1: the game against the Colts last week. That had nothing

803
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: to do with his shoulder. That was all mental and

804
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: that's my issue. With him right now. He just seems

805
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 1: like he's mentally broken as well. Aren't we all a

806
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 1: little bit mentally broken? Sign Now this is me flying

807
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: high Philly's one on one in the series Eagles five

808
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: and now, I mean life is good. Uh, last game

809
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: to talk about and then we still we've we've nailed

810
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: our big ball. So we gotta do a money line

811
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 1: underdog parlay, which there could be many this week because

812
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: we like so many dogs. Um uh, Chiefs Bills. It's

813
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: another game. I don't have a strong opinion on it.

814
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 1: I might not even better until we get to the game.

815
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 1: I took it as soon as the three pots, I

816
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: took it, but again, Books Limited didn't get anything crazy

817
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 1: now maybe five figures. It's like I was, I was

818
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 1: hoping there was gonna stay up there for a minute

819
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: as she was. I took a little taste and a

820
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: couple of different books. It was even like, I don't know,

821
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: two hours, the line was back on the two and

822
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: a half. They know what they have here, the books.

823
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: The public is gonna be all over the Chiefs again,

824
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: I said every time every time the Pros went six

825
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: pernot the time four parsent, the time the public wins.

826
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 1: That's my horror support. I'm trying to do a balance

827
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: act here. I can't always blindly fade the public. I

828
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 1: gotta take it like I just I look at this line.

829
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,359
Speaker 1: It's just like the Chiefs. Mahomes is seven oh one

830
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 1: as a as a dog. He's never been a home

831
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 1: dog in his entire career. Again, all these, all these reasons,

832
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: this is why pros like the Bills. Here. They're like,

833
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: you think the books are just giving you free money. Here,

834
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: I know they're not, but it's kind of my Homes

835
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: of the unicorn, like the guy breaks a lot of

836
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: these rules. Um, I don't know what to do with

837
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 1: other than the fact that I again I believe the

838
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: Bills are the number two best team in the n

839
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 1: f C. I've had a coming to the year and

840
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: all off season I had the Chiefs rated as my

841
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: number one team, and even when they lost are kill,

842
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: I still did. It's the simple fact that it's my

843
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: Homes has had the number against Josh Allen. I know

844
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: Josh Allen got the best of them last year and

845
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 1: then we saw what happened, like the playoffs came around.

846
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 1: Wherever the ball lasts, that's who one It's just these

847
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: guys are very evenly matched. I'm getting dog points at home.

848
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: We now how hard is to play the Arrowhead. I

849
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: can't not take the Chiefs. I just like Chad said,

850
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can put him in our

851
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: contest because it's like scary as hell going against Josh Allen.

852
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: It's it's one of the worst feelings in Miami game.

853
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: Took a year off my life, like them and how

854
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: all the thing about the things you need to have

855
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 1: for us to cover and win that number against Miami

856
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: against the Bills, like all that stuff you need to

857
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 1: beat Josh Allen. It's just one of those games. Everyone's

858
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 1: gonna bet on it, everyone's gonna take a side. We're

859
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:43,280
Speaker 1: all gonna kind of washing it with one eyes closed

860
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: because it's just so painful going against my Homes or

861
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. They're just they're simply the best. So no

862
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: player on the Panthers you don't even want to put

863
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 1: that one in think about putting it in, No, because

864
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are gonna kill him. The Rams

865
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: are fucking bad there, all right, you know what, and

866
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 1: you love the Panthers coming in. The Panthers are literally

867
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 1: it's as if they had two pound tumors on their body.

868
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 1: The coach and the quarterback. They cut it off. But

869
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 1: against a Rams team that I don't know if you

870
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: saw the injury report, Cooper Cup bad ankle, Aaron Donald

871
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: bad ankle, that's huge, Like that's it's say they got

872
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 1: four All Stars on their team. That's two of them

873
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: right there. So just anyone listening, that's something a monitor

874
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 1: to me, like, that's a game on Sunday. I don't

875
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: want people to be shocked at me. And Chad had

876
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 1: the Panthers in there. If Cooper's out, automatic play, I

877
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: don't care who they They can have a freaking trash

878
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 1: can literally playing quarterback Carolina, I'll play. It's just whatever

879
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: to me. Was soon as you take away the only

880
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: guy that's working right now for the Rams, that's gotta

881
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: been auto play. But I'm with you, chat like this

882
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 1: spot play wise should be the Rams. But funk man,

883
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 1: they got a lot of issues, all right, So we'll

884
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: talk about that one on Sunday. Reminder, you can follow

885
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: the pics that we uh that we play in the

886
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's for you. It's a word winning

887
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 1: download it now follow the phase five. You can follow

888
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast for our foxhold which is Saints plus two,

889
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: where Simon says, which is Atlanta plus five and a half.

890
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 1: Our exact decision with this which is Cleveland minus three?

891
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,439
Speaker 1: Are big balls better the week which is Steelers plus

892
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: eight and a half? Survivor. We decided on Rams on Tuesday. Yeah,

893
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 1: maybe we want or Bucks And I got another one

894
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: from the third in there, Lamar Jackson twelve and oh

895
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: career against the NFC. If you still got the Ravens,

896
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: you want to use them here, don't hate it all right?

897
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 1: Rams Bucks are Ravens for Survivor. Before we go, we

898
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 1: gotta do the money line Underdog parlay. And because we

899
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,280
Speaker 1: respect our new listeners who are listening live on AMP,

900
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: someone actually had a question for us about Tennessee, Alabama

901
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: this weekend, and so we're weighing on that at the end. First, Simon,

902
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: give us a money line underdog parlay. Dog your dog,

903
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: your dog blocks dog? First one, no brainer. Everyone knew

904
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 1: you would take a Dolphins against the Vikings. Who who

905
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 1: the hell of the Dolphins. I don't care if it's

906
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: a third train or Teddy. If I don't play the

907
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: number I'm definitely playing the money line, just because this

908
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 1: is such a bad spot for a foreign one Vikings

909
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 1: team that's a little fraudulent. So I'll take that one

910
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: of the money line, one of the Jaguars. There's no

911
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 1: value there anymore, so I'll just throw it away. Give

912
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: me the Jets, give me Atlanta, give me the Saints,

913
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 1: give me the Seahawks. To me, they're all good dogs.

914
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 1: The Chiefs. I really wanted to do it, I'm telling

915
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 1: you cha, I'm scared. I feel more comfortable taking the

916
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 1: three For some reason. I do taking the money line

917
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 1: because I can see this game coming down to a

918
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: field goal. But every other game I just see how

919
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 1: write winners like the Jets one, no one would be

920
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: shocked if they somehow beat the cream Bay anymore. Like

921
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: I would say this is crazy me two three weeks ago.

922
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: But now you just look on paper and it's just

923
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 1: like one team is completely going the other way. Um again,

924
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 1: years catch up to these teams. We see it all

925
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 1: the times. Teams can read rebuilding the drafts while the

926
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 1: other team goes the other way. It's a nice look

927
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 1: right now with um this Jets team. So I like it.

928
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: The only one that I'm scared about chat. I would say,

929
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: is my aim right? We've been a third stringer to

930
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: win out right, But it's just kind of all of

931
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: the averages the Vikings team. Does anyone think this team

932
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 1: is a twelve and five team? No, that they feel

933
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: more like a ten and seven, eleven and six kind

934
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 1: of teams. So we're gonna try to steal a couple

935
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 1: of wins from this Vikings teams. You go along here Miami,

936
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: the Jets, Atlanta, Saints, Seattle. It's weird to me that

937
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 1: you were only able to get barely get five figures down.

938
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: Not too much on the Chiefs at plus three I got.

939
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 1: I got mid five figures down because I told you

940
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: I haven't my unit size. Uh mid five figures on

941
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 1: the Saints A plus two before that never moved. But hey,

942
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,479
Speaker 1: sometimes we're just playing different games, you know what I'm saying.

943
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 1: What's your take on Tennessee Alabama? Mr Simon Hunter, I

944
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 1: will tell you right now. Colin Wilson, who co hosts

945
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast, everyone should listen to it.

946
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 1: UH with our friends Stucky. That's our college podcast. You

947
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: can watch Stuckey, Colin and uh Brett McMurphy on Saturday

948
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: Mornings Big Bets on campus college football preview show he likes,

949
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: and I forgot our Scooter row left, but I'll get

950
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: to that in a second. Kylin says, this is entirely

951
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 1: about Bryce Young and whether or not a players. If

952
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: he does, it's Bama. If he doesn't, it's the under

953
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee can defend the rush, they can't defend good passing, Simon,

954
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: But you have a hot take on this. Yeah, it's

955
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: a no brainer pick. I feel like he should be.

956
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:30,720
Speaker 1: He shouldn't even care who was a quarterback for Bama.

957
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: You just take Bammy here every time. If you got

958
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 1: Bama as a seven point favorite, right, and every one

959
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: of their grandma is coming in heavy on a number

960
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: that they're hanging without even know whe the quarterback is

961
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: gonna be, and then they bump it the minus seven

962
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 1: and a half for Bama. Come on, you just gotta

963
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: bet this every time. So I don't. I don't have

964
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 1: any type of trends or data backing up taking Bam

965
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: in the spot. I can tell you in my lifetime,

966
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 1: I always win taking Bama in this spot. I mean

967
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: just last year. Man, I forget if it was it

968
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 1: might be. It might have been the SEC championship game,

969
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 1: or it might have been. Yeah, I think it was.

970
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: It was it was Bama Georgia. Georgia was getting a

971
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: percent of the money, eight percent of the bets. Bama's

972
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,800
Speaker 1: getting no love. I think Bama beat him by like twenty.

973
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: Like it's just in these positions you're getting Bama where

974
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,800
Speaker 1: people are down on them, you're down on Nick Saban,

975
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: and that the percentage of all the money is coming

976
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: in a public dog. You just always take Bamma here.

977
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: So I knew a couple of guys already hit the

978
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: number at seven with Bama. They still like it at

979
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Their their view of it is,

980
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: you take this up to ten and a half. I'm

981
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: not saying they think Tennessee or frauds, but that's just

982
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 1: kind of the word around the college world right now.

983
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 1: It's like it's Tennessee as good as they've looked, or

984
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 1: they've just had good matchups against teams that are just

985
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 1: not that good. Where we know Obama's there the cream

986
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 1: of the crop. You want to do a scooch. Let's

987
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: do some scooch roulette. When all hope is lost, all

988
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 1: that's left is relief. Well, let's play Scots Roulette. I

989
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 1: don't want to double dips, so I'll try to do

990
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 1: something we haven't done. Give me Seattle. I'll do a

991
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 1: beautiful home dog. I don't need the three. I'll take

992
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 1: the two and a half for Scooch. All right, I'll

993
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 1: take the Saints. I don't need the too. I'll take

994
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: the one and a half. And then someone knows mean Chad,

995
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: all the live listeners, we are going head to head tonight.

996
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: He's taken the Bears. I am on the Commanders. Yeah,

997
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: I am. I saw a whole report that like a

998
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 1: Wentz might have a torn like labor or something like that.

999
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 1: I love it. Give me the Commanders. This is this

1000
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 1: is when you wanted Carson when he's hurt, because he'll

1001
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 1: just hand the ball off. Hopefully Carson Wentz has a

1002
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 1: torn labor. Logan Thomas out, Johan Dotson is out. I'm

1003
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: a little nervous about this. For the live listeners, the

1004
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 1: numbers moved from Bears minus one to Commanders minus one.

1005
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 1: I worry that sharp money and yeah, and then my fandom,

1006
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,720
Speaker 1: like all the theories we have about betting the Steelers,

1007
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 1: they also apply to the commanders. So um, I am

1008
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 1: a little bit worried about it, but you know what,

1009
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 1: I'll be watching it. And when I turned on the

1010
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 1: lights for the video to record on Podcast Today, you

1011
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 1: know what I was thinking. Fucking love football and I

1012
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: wait for Thursday night football and I can't wait for

1013
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: the Bears. And I don't care if it's as bad

1014
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,800
Speaker 1: as last week's game with the Broncos and whoever they played,

1015
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch every second of it. Don't forget people,

1016
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,879
Speaker 1: I got live listeners unders when the total is thirty

1017
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 1: eight or lower since two thousand seven on one toward

1018
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: the under small sample. Chad love small samples, small sample,

1019
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: small irrelevant sample. All right, this has been the favorite

1020
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,720
Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman.

1021
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:31,839
Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter for amazing producer Matt Mitchell, who

1022
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 1: got us live on AMP Today for the first time,

1023
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 1: as well as managing the rest of the machinery to

1024
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 1: get the podcast Roland. He is the best. You can

1025
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,879
Speaker 1: download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get

1026
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Leave us a five star review, rate, review, subscribe,

1027
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time,

1028
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 1: I love you,