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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. I'm
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew in Washington, d C. With a lot to
Speaker 3: cover this hour, and we begin with the death of
Speaker 3: Alexi NAVONNEI forty seven years old. The story that we're
Speaker 3: hearing from the Federal Prison Service is like something out
Speaker 3: of a bad movie. Out with a statement said, Navalney
Speaker 3: felt unwell after a walk on Friday. He lost consciousness
Speaker 3: and ambulance arrived. They tried to rehabilitate him, it says,
Speaker 3: but he died. Now remembering back in December, friends and
Speaker 3: family lost track of him. He later emerged in a
Speaker 3: remote Arctic prison camp. As I said, it's like something
Speaker 3: out of a bad movie. We are waiting to hear
Speaker 3: now from President Biden. This is a late add to
Speaker 3: the schedule. He was set to begin speaking three minutes
Speaker 3: ago high noon from the White House. Knowing that President
Speaker 3: Biden has a trip to Ohio today. He's on his
Speaker 3: way to East Palestine, where we also expect remarks later on.
Speaker 3: But when he speaks to this issue of Navalney will
Speaker 3: bring it to you live here on Bloomberg Radio, on
Speaker 3: the satellite and on YouTube, and with us here in
Speaker 3: studio to get things started is Nick Wahams, who of
Speaker 3: course runs our national security team here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: It's good to see you.
Speaker 3: I know you've been very busy on this and it's
Speaker 3: obviously a deeply troubling story. I just wonder the political
Speaker 3: ramifications here in the US. Joe Biden is about to
Speaker 3: seize on this. What do you think we hear from him?
Speaker 4: Well, it'll be very interesting because you know, it was
Speaker 4: President Biden who had said some months ago that if
Speaker 4: Alexin have only died in Russian custody, the consequences for
Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin would be quote unquote devastating. So you know,
Speaker 4: who knows what that will mean if it's sanctions. Sanctions
Speaker 4: have not devastated Russia so far, so, but he's going
Speaker 4: to have to do something. The big question for me
Speaker 4: is what does this do for Ukraine aid? I mean,
Speaker 4: this military AID has been tied up sixty billion dollars
Speaker 4: in Congress. Obviously, the condemnations from all sides coming fast
Speaker 4: and furious right now. So does this pry loose or
Speaker 4: add to pressure to House Republicans to unlock that aid?
Speaker 1: Is it too early to answer that.
Speaker 3: We saw a statement from a Speaker of the House
Speaker 3: who has said that this Ukraine and Israel Taiwan funding
Speaker 3: bill is doa We've been through this before, a very
Speaker 3: stern statement calling putin a dictator in his written statement.
Speaker 3: At least does this move the needle in the House?
Speaker 4: You know, The question is whether it will really add
Speaker 4: to the pressure. I mean, the issue for Johnson is
Speaker 4: that he has stated so much of his reputation now
Speaker 4: on making sure this bill does not go through. I mean,
Speaker 4: we are seeing some other stuff that's going to be
Speaker 4: just as troubling. Russian forces making advances on some Ukrainian towns,
Speaker 4: one in particular, where essentially it's all come down to munitions.
Speaker 4: The Russian dominance on artillery shells has meant that it
Speaker 4: really has the advantage and is able to press and
Speaker 4: take back some territory from Ukraine that it had previously seized,
Speaker 4: and then lost, so you know, you are starting to
Speaker 4: see a real impact on the ground as well as
Speaker 4: a result of the US not being able to send
Speaker 4: that funding. So pressure is mounting on Speaker Johnson.
Speaker 3: Give us your view on Vladimir Putin right now. You
Speaker 3: just mentioned a couple of important points, and I'll add
Speaker 3: to them. We have this news of a hypersonic missile
Speaker 3: being used in Ukraine for the first time. This week,
Speaker 3: we spent a lot of time talking about space nukes,
Speaker 3: even though that's not really what they are. We had
Speaker 3: his sort of tongue in cheek endorsement of Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: Is he feeling emboldened by the lack of action here
Speaker 3: in the US?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean certainly this plays right to his strength.
Speaker 4: So anytime there's division in the US, that's something he
Speaker 4: seeks to exploit. So the you know, quote unquote endorsement
Speaker 4: of Joe Biden just is just a perfect example of
Speaker 4: a way in which he's trying to sort of stir
Speaker 4: the pot in the US. I mean, there are a
Speaker 4: couple of things happening here that are really interesting, the
Speaker 4: satellite thing, for example, the nukes. I mean, that was
Speaker 4: a leak from a member of Congress that was designed
Speaker 4: to put pressure on various people for all sorts of
Speaker 4: other reasons. So there is an element of a snowball
Speaker 4: where you have Putin doing certain things, but then the
Speaker 4: fervor in Washington gets to be particularly spikey, so then
Speaker 4: more comes in and it's just like Russia, Russia, Russia
Speaker 4: all the time. I mean, not to quote Donald Trumper.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the way he operates, though to your point,
Speaker 3: he knows when to seize the moment. It's not a
Speaker 3: coincidence that Tucker Carlson showed up for a big interview
Speaker 3: to run on the US right right, you know.
Speaker 4: I think what you're seeing too is he wants to
Speaker 4: be in the center of the I mean it's almost
Speaker 4: like there's no such thing as bad publicity for Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 4: The Navalni thing is really interesting. I mean, you can't
Speaker 4: say that this was not what Russia actually intended. He
Speaker 4: had been put in successively worse and worse and worse
Speaker 4: prison conditions. I mean, based on the dispatches we had
Speaker 4: heard from him and his lawyers, I mean, he was essentially,
Speaker 4: you know, in extremely poor health, in an awful situation.
Speaker 4: And obviously President Biden had thought this might be coming, saying,
Speaker 4: you know, the consequences would be devastating. So again, all
Speaker 4: eyes on the president right now.
Speaker 3: Well, we'll be of course listening closely when he speaks,
Speaker 3: and we'll bring as I mentioned, President Biden's remarks to
Speaker 3: you here on a Bloomberg radio and on YouTube. Nick
Speaker 3: Wadham's great to see you. Thank you so much as
Speaker 3: always for jumping on breaking news and helping us understand
Speaker 3: what's happening in many cases on the other side of
Speaker 3: the world. I want to add the voice of Terry Haynes,
Speaker 3: who was out with some interesting thoughts on this earlier today,
Speaker 3: of course, the founder of Pangea Policy. You've got a
Speaker 3: lot to talk about today with Terry. It's good to
Speaker 3: see you, sir. Uh This, based on what I'm reading
Speaker 3: from your note to clients earlier today, does not do
Speaker 3: much for the debate surrounding Ukraine funding here in Washington.
Speaker 5: What's your take, Oh, I think it was that those
Speaker 5: notes were to you. By the way, Number one, you're
Speaker 5: my client. I haven't written the clients today about this,
Speaker 5: and a good thing because as you pointed out, the
Speaker 5: world's very fast moving right now. Uh So, anything I
Speaker 5: would say is probably out of date. An hour later,
Speaker 5: I don't think Navalni has much much of anything to
Speaker 5: do with the debate, sadly, and you know, as Nick
Speaker 5: pointed out, Uh, you know, you could almost assume a
Speaker 5: Navalni demise. I'm very sorry to say, but you know,
Speaker 5: the and the United States gets into trouble when it starts,
Speaker 5: uh moving foreign policy chips around based on the death
Speaker 5: or murder of one person in particular, whether it's Navalny
Speaker 5: or Jamal Kashogi for another example. You know, where all
Speaker 5: of a sudden, study Arabia was a pariah, and then
Speaker 5: then we were fist bumping, and now then we were
Speaker 5: working on Middle East peaks and now I'm not entirely
Speaker 5: sure what we're doing. But you know, but it goes
Speaker 5: back and forth and sideways. I don't think it has
Speaker 5: much of an effect. I think the Russian space nuke thing,
Speaker 5: I'll call it may well, but there are too many
Speaker 5: variables right now, so we really don't know.
Speaker 3: Well we don't, although there is I guess a new bill,
Speaker 3: a Plan D as they're calling it in the House
Speaker 3: right now, that does take a slightly different approach to
Speaker 3: funding through the eyes at least of House Republicans more
Speaker 3: palatable terry. Does it give you the sense when you
Speaker 3: see something immerged like this, that there, in fact will
Speaker 3: be a debate and an eventual compromise.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think so. Let me just put it this way.
Speaker 5: You know, Washington, you know, particularly where you're sitting right now,
Speaker 5: in the restaurants in the immediate area, are full of
Speaker 5: people all talking about process, why process is so difficult,
Speaker 5: why process is not going to make this happen. While
Speaker 5: process is, you know, is the friend of those who
Speaker 5: want to stop Ukraine Aid. My response is simply, you've
Speaker 5: got a situation where three quarters of the House wants
Speaker 5: Ukraine Aid in addition to the Senate, in addition to
Speaker 5: the President. So there's that number one. Number two, what
Speaker 5: you see in the in the bipartisan problem solvers bill
Speaker 5: that's out today is really what the House should have
Speaker 5: been doing anyway last week, which is saying, okay, well
Speaker 5: we don't you know, we're not completely in favor of
Speaker 5: your bill, but you know, let's go to conference and
Speaker 5: you know, get more of what we want. You know,
Speaker 5: there's an awful lot of political and policy cowardice going
Speaker 5: on on both sides of the Island in both houses,
Speaker 5: where people just don't want to stand up and say, Okay,
Speaker 5: we're going to work this process through and we're going
Speaker 5: to get most of what we want. They'd rather not
Speaker 5: get anything or be purer than get most of what
Speaker 5: they want. What Brian Fitzpatrick and the others are saying
Speaker 5: is no, we're going to move forward here and we're
Speaker 5: going to try to put our shoulders to the wheel
Speaker 5: and try to make this happen. I think there's an
Speaker 5: awful lot of pressure even though you've got Republicans against
Speaker 5: Ukraine Eate on the right, you've got left Democrats against
Speaker 5: certain parts of the Israeli aid package. I think there's
Speaker 5: going to be an awful lot of pressure from the
Speaker 5: rank and file and the centrists here to make something happen,
Speaker 5: which is fundamentally why I think something does.
Speaker 1: Fascinating.
Speaker 3: A couple of things I want to ask you about this,
Speaker 3: including how the President seizes on the moment he's going
Speaker 3: to try to leverage this news I assume to move
Speaker 3: Ukraine funding. Are we in for another dangerous world speech?
Speaker 3: What's coming from the White House today?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 5: I imagine? So, yeah, We're in for a dangerous world speech,
Speaker 5: and we're in we're in UH, and I'm sorry to say,
Speaker 5: for another I call on the Congress to do their
Speaker 5: jobs UH speech. What's left out of that, of course,
Speaker 5: is UH is Biden's willingness to actually jump out there
Speaker 5: and do whatever he can to make that happen.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 5: He's got very little ability to do that, by and
Speaker 5: large because he doesn't really have any political capital to use.
Speaker 5: You know, a president that has shown himself I say
Speaker 5: this not in a partisan sense, just in a keen
Speaker 5: political observer sense. A president has shown himself an octor
Speaker 5: his progressive wing for the last three years.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 5: One of the things that tells you is he doesn't
Speaker 5: have the ability to move his Democrats very much.
Speaker 2: UH.
Speaker 5: And in fact, one thing I always point out is,
Speaker 5: UH successes in Congress have existed, particularly with the Inflation
Speaker 5: Reduction Act, have existed in particular because Biden's been told
Speaker 5: to stay away from it by Democratic Leader Schumer. That
Speaker 5: happened with the IRA, it happened with infrastructure. You notice
Speaker 5: the lack of white House in direct involvement in what
Speaker 5: the Senate did on the Ukraine Bill. As part of that,
Speaker 5: they white House was informed of Schumer's course of action
Speaker 5: wasn't asked for it. So what you have here is
Speaker 5: a situation where you know Biden's going to urge the
Speaker 5: Congress to do something and then go back in and
Speaker 5: do whatever else is next on his schedule. But you know,
Speaker 5: if they want this, they need to pull out all
Speaker 5: the stops to make it happen. If they don't, the
Speaker 5: conclusion that Congress draws the people that have the votes
Speaker 5: is that Biden doesn't really care about it very much.
Speaker 5: So he's going to have to start to care if
Speaker 5: he's going to if he's going to actually make something happen.
Speaker 3: I want to talk to you about government funding, specifically
Speaker 3: defense spending at terry, But first, what should be done
Speaker 3: about this the Valney story. I know you're not a
Speaker 3: military analyst or specializing in national security necessarily with this
Speaker 3: President did promise I believe devastating consequences if this happened
Speaker 3: for Vladimir Putin or could we be in for another
Speaker 3: announcement today?
Speaker 5: I don't see what Thanks for the frame there, but
Speaker 5: I don't see what they can do that will change
Speaker 5: the narrative. In particular, you know, the you know the
Speaker 5: best thing he could do is put a shoulder the
Speaker 5: wheel and get Ukraine aid done. The best thing he
Speaker 5: could do is to figure out some aggressive course on
Speaker 5: you know what again we'll call the Russian space nuke issue,
Speaker 5: although you accurately point out it's not really that, but
Speaker 5: you know, do some do something about that, because that's
Speaker 5: going to be another issue where if he doesn't do
Speaker 5: something and show that he's doing something, you know that
Speaker 5: the passivity on that issue might well trap him.
Speaker 3: So think about everything that we've talked about so far,
Speaker 3: Terry Haynes. You connect the dots on all of this stuff,
Speaker 3: and I wonder what it means for the argument over
Speaker 3: funding the government, specifically the Pentagon. This is going to
Speaker 3: make a cr or a minibus even less palatable to
Speaker 3: hawks in the House want it. What's going to happen
Speaker 3: when lawmakers come back? Do you think we're shutting down
Speaker 3: in March?
Speaker 5: Well, firstly, I give great credit to Bloomberg hosts, particularly
Speaker 5: you for not laughing when you were interviewing a member
Speaker 5: of the House Republican leadership yesterday. That was good of
Speaker 5: you your profession, but.
Speaker 3: It is it is so you're laughing, is what you're saying?
Speaker 5: Well, it's you know it is la it's laughable. I'm
Speaker 5: sorry to say. You know, Emmer was doing the best
Speaker 5: he could but at this but you know, when you're
Speaker 5: going away and you've got three days to come back
Speaker 5: and finalize some sort of a deal for all the
Speaker 5: all the funding priorities, and what you've seen in the
Speaker 5: last six months is every time they go away, exactly
Speaker 5: nothing happens. What that adds up to this time is
Speaker 5: another nothing's going to happen. So Johnston's going to be
Speaker 5: caught again with a situation where you know, Emmer can
Speaker 5: say what he likes, but a situation where there's going
Speaker 5: to be another extension of funding. Firstly, Secondly, I would
Speaker 5: say underneath that there's probably going to be a revision
Speaker 5: of and a relook at what the defense funding is
Speaker 5: going to be because you'll recall Congress already in the
Speaker 5: last fiscal year basically told Biden know that however much
Speaker 5: money you want for defense isn't enough, and they added
Speaker 5: on another three percent. You're likely to see that between
Speaker 5: Ukraine Ofney, the Russian space nuke issue, you know, you're
Speaker 5: likely to see all that go on to really pump
Speaker 5: it up even more.
Speaker 3: Well, March is going to be interesting. I just want
Speaker 3: you to know, Terry, we officially have the countdown clock up.
Speaker 3: While you were speaking, the countdown to the show Down
Speaker 3: as officially underway. I've been looking forward to seeing you, Terry.
Speaker 3: Thanks for joining. He's the founder of Pangaea Policy with
Speaker 3: the Insider's View today in Washington, an important one for us.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 3: This is a late addition to the schedule here did
Speaker 3: Joe Biden say enough? Having promised devastating consequences if this
Speaker 3: were to happen.
Speaker 6: You know, I think we do need to know. Obviously,
Speaker 6: we just got the news that he passed away earlier today,
Speaker 6: and they're still waiting to confirm it. As the President said,
Speaker 6: if it's to be believed, he has no reason not
Speaker 6: to believe it. But they do need confirmation, and then
Speaker 6: I think they need to be very clear on how
Speaker 6: they are going to respond, considering he did promise to
Speaker 6: respond forcefully. I was a little bit surprised that he
Speaker 6: did not take the opportunity to call out by name
Speaker 6: those people in the House who are holding up this
Speaker 6: funding and to make clear that there is a way
Speaker 6: in which he is going to be active in pushing
Speaker 6: for this and you know, to make those stakes very clear.
Speaker 6: That said, I think you know the idea that he
Speaker 6: took questions after his last go around with the press,
Speaker 6: I was also surprised, and he seemed to handle those
Speaker 6: very well, and they were on a variety of topics.
Speaker 3: He had a couple of stumbles there when he was
Speaker 3: trying to check himself Rick, But how did he perform
Speaker 3: and did he say enough about how to handle Vladimir Putin?
Speaker 5: Yeah, hey, fine.
Speaker 8: I mean for an eighty two year old president, he
Speaker 8: knocked it out of the park, you know what I mean.
Speaker 8: The bottom line is he should have announced some kind
Speaker 8: of sanctions against the Russian leadership for their complicity in
Speaker 8: the death of Alexei Navalny. It's outrageous after all that's
Speaker 8: been said and done, that we're still quote taking under consideration.
Speaker 8: We know what the different things are that we can
Speaker 8: do with Russia. We've been talking about for years and
Speaker 8: years and years, literally almost since Vladimir Putin got in
Speaker 8: to office. We've been planning sanctions. It doesn't take ten
Speaker 8: seconds to put a bunch on a list and say
Speaker 8: this is what we're going to do as of today
Speaker 8: because of the murder of Alexi Navalny. And so another
Speaker 8: sort of weak response that's not actually going to get
Speaker 8: any momentum in Congress because the people who care about
Speaker 8: this are already outraged, and probably more outraged than President
Speaker 8: Biden just discussed. I think it's great that he made
Speaker 8: the statement, but it was another weak attempt at trying
Speaker 8: to sable rattle rather than drive a saber into the
Speaker 8: Russian leap. I would also say just one point of outrage.
Speaker 8: You know, we've all been talking about Tucker Carlson's trip
Speaker 8: to Moscow, his very placid interview with Putin, But like today,
Speaker 8: he was in Dubai at a conference and said, in
Speaker 8: relationship to the death of Alexi Navalni that leadership requires
Speaker 8: killing people.
Speaker 1: Well, if this is not the most.
Speaker 8: Outrageous thing for American to say in a public forum,
Speaker 8: I can't imagine why, and anybody who would give a
Speaker 8: forum to this person who has these kinds of views
Speaker 8: should be condemned at first.
Speaker 2: Blush.
Speaker 8: So sorry to rattle on on this, but pretty emotional
Speaker 8: day for those of us who care about freedom.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know that would be Elon Musk of course,
Speaker 3: harboring and hosting that program on X and I did
Speaker 3: see that remark Rick. It was incredible, particularly Genie, when
Speaker 3: you consider the way that Tucker Carlson appear to him
Speaker 3: been used by Vladimir Putin to spread a message to
Speaker 3: the West.
Speaker 6: Absolutely right, you know, unconscionable that he would say that.
Speaker 6: I do have to say I do support the president
Speaker 6: coming out forcefully on sanctions or other actions, but I
Speaker 6: also think the United States government, the president has got
Speaker 6: to wait until they are confirmed, and they have confirmed
Speaker 6: that he is in fact dead, and as you hear
Speaker 6: the President saying, if then that means they shouldn't announce
Speaker 6: what they're gonna do. But on Tucker Carlson, absolutely we
Speaker 6: heard the EU come back even prior to those statements,
Speaker 6: given his interview with Vlatimir Putin, and say that they
Speaker 6: may institute a travel ban. You know, obviously he has
Speaker 6: free speech rights to say what he wants. But private
Speaker 6: organizations and organizations sponsoring this type of talk, they should
Speaker 6: take action.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: Boycotts and other things by the you know, by people
Speaker 6: are absolutely acceptable, you know. An the other thing I
Speaker 6: think that we need to be very clear on is
Speaker 6: the President I believe should have taken more forcefully and
Speaker 6: said everybody wishing you know, good wishes for Navoni's widow
Speaker 6: and his family, and you know, condemning his death. They
Speaker 6: have got to follow that, specifically the members of the House,
Speaker 6: with action on supporting Ukraine, which is why he went
Speaker 6: back in twenty twenty to change his government, and he
Speaker 6: really was very forceful on the incursion into Ukraine. And
Speaker 6: so that type of talk should be followed by action.
Speaker 3: Otherwise it's hip critical President speaking to the need to
Speaker 3: fund Ukraine, Rick saying the clock is ticking. We expected
Speaker 3: that he would use this as an opportunity to kind
Speaker 3: of underscore the urgency of the matter. But I find
Speaker 3: it interesting here we've got a new bill in the House.
Speaker 3: This is the Plan D Bill, as some are calling it,
Speaker 3: forty eight billion in in new aid for Ukraine billions
Speaker 3: more for Israel and Indo pack. It comes out though,
Speaker 3: to sixty six billion dollars in defense only support as
Speaker 3: opposed to more than one hundred billion passed in the Senate.
Speaker 3: Is this maybe something that could get traction in the
Speaker 3: House or are we turning away from this.
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 8: I mean, I don't think it's going to get any
Speaker 8: more traction than anything else has.
Speaker 1: The reality is, you've got three.
Speaker 8: Hundred votes for the Senate bill, at least in the
Speaker 8: House of Representatives, and it's all about leadership and whether
Speaker 8: or not the Speaker is going to go forward, you know,
Speaker 8: with giving Congress a chance to vote on this, or
Speaker 8: whether or not the Democrats are going to be able
Speaker 8: to post.
Speaker 2: Their own bill.
Speaker 8: The reality is anything else is just a distraction, you know,
Speaker 8: from this, and the idea that at this late stage
Speaker 8: that now someone is going to stick a border proposal
Speaker 8: on top of a defense only bill is just, you know,
Speaker 8: sort of a.
Speaker 1: Flash in the pan.
Speaker 8: The Stay in Mexico treaty requires Mexico to say yes
Speaker 8: to that, and I doubt if the Congressman has made
Speaker 8: any phone calls to Mexico City to line up their support.
Speaker 8: So I mean again, just one more example of incompetent
Speaker 8: leadership in the house.
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Speaker 9: Joe Matthew and Kayley Lines live in Washington, but a
Speaker 9: lot of the attention has instead been across the Atlantic today, Joe,
Speaker 9: after we woke up to news this morning reports of
Speaker 9: the death of Russian dissident most vocal opponent to Vladimir
Speaker 9: Putin in Russia, Alexi Navolney. And it's news that just
Speaker 9: happened to coincide with the Munich Security Conference, in which
Speaker 9: a number of Western leaders are gathered to discuss threats
Speaker 9: from Russia. On the issue of it for Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we caught up with Senor Ben Cardon and we're
Speaker 3: going to speak soon with an important voice, Jeremy Bash
Speaker 3: at the conference. The timing here is peculiar and important, frankly, Kayley,
Speaker 3: because lawmakers including Hakim Jeffreys, Republicans like Michael McCall are
Speaker 3: hearing from European leaders about the lack of funding.
Speaker 9: For Ukraine, including as well Senator Ben Cardin's Democrat Democrat
Speaker 9: from Maryland who chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Senate.
Speaker 9: He joined Bloomberg earlier today. Take a listen to what
Speaker 9: he said.
Speaker 10: Well, this is a tragic event. Mister Putin is fully
Speaker 10: responsible for Miss Novulti's apparent death. It is absolutely tragic.
Speaker 10: The Vice President spoke here at the Munich Security Conference,
Speaker 10: Vice President Harris and repeated that there will be consequences.
Speaker 10: Mister Putin's actions are just against all humanity.
Speaker 3: Ben Cardon with us earlier today on Bloomberg as we
Speaker 3: bring you back to the Munich Security Conference right now.
Speaker 3: As I mentioned, Jeremy bash is with us now at
Speaker 3: Beacon Global Strategies. That spent a career in national security
Speaker 3: with two very important roles, chief of staff for the
Speaker 3: Director of the CIA and chief of staff for the
Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense. They were both Leon Panetta, who we're
Speaker 3: going to be speaking with later on today in the
Speaker 3: late edition of Balance of Power. It's great to have
Speaker 3: you with us, sir. I'm curious to hear what you're
Speaker 3: hearing in Munich on this news of Alexi Navolney's death.
Speaker 5: Well, great to be with you.
Speaker 7: It's a somber day here because at this gathering of
Speaker 7: Western allies, where America's principal partners for global security gather
Speaker 7: annually here at the historic Byershoff Hotel, Normally it's a
Speaker 7: moment where the allies can stand shoulder to shoulder and
Speaker 7: feel resolute against the threats coming from Russia, coming from China,
Speaker 7: coming from other autocrats. But today, of course, the conference
Speaker 7: was rocked by the news that Alexi Navalni was murdered.
Speaker 7: Putin murdered by the Kremlin. Of course, Navalni was the
Speaker 7: most prominent outspoken critic of Putin and Putinism, and it really,
Speaker 7: I think, put the spotlight right back on the US Congress,
Speaker 7: which at this hour is considering whether to fund defensive
Speaker 7: systems for Ukraine, and the world is watching. The world
Speaker 7: is watching whether or not the United States will act
Speaker 7: in defense of Ukraine. You know who else is watching.
Speaker 7: China's watching. They want to see and understand whether or
Speaker 7: not Washington can stand by its allies and partners as
Speaker 7: they think about their next moves in the Indo Pacific.
Speaker 7: So this is a very consequential moment. I think the
Speaker 7: Vice President Vice President Harris and President Biden today delivered
Speaker 7: a very strong and effective rebuke to the Kremlin and
Speaker 7: warned our adversaries that their will be consequences.
Speaker 9: And as you say, Jeremy, I'm sure adversaries are paying
Speaker 9: close attention to the way the US moves forward here,
Speaker 9: but our allies surely are as well, especially in light
Speaker 9: of remarks from former President and Donald Trump within the
Speaker 9: last week suggesting that if he were president again, he
Speaker 9: may not come to the defense of NATO allies who
Speaker 9: he doesn't think are paying enough into the alliance. How
Speaker 9: much concern or fear do you sense among European partners
Speaker 9: that are gathered there about what may happen under a
Speaker 9: future Trump administration.
Speaker 7: There is a tremendous amount of concern here among our allies,
Speaker 7: those allies who have fought, those allies who have died
Speaker 7: with us on the battlefield, that if Trump is elected,
Speaker 7: he will pull the rug out from under NATO. He
Speaker 7: will give a green light to putin and autocrats from
Speaker 7: around the world will think that they have a green
Speaker 7: light to run over borders, invade our allies, and that
Speaker 7: American power will be significantly weakened. The statements from Donald
Speaker 7: Trump last week evidenced themes that were frankly weak, that
Speaker 7: were an American that have shocked our allies and partners.
Speaker 7: And I think Vice President Harris here today and President
Speaker 7: Biden back in Washington may clear with the United States
Speaker 7: as long as they're in control, they will stand by
Speaker 7: our allies and partners. And that's incredibly important for international security.
Speaker 7: It's incredibly important for the American people. We benefit from
Speaker 7: having America at the center of this very important alliance structure,
Speaker 7: and if Trump has its way, that alliance structure could
Speaker 7: very well crumble.
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about this further, about this
Speaker 3: debate over Ukraine funding, Jeremy, It's not going well here
Speaker 3: in Washington. Some don't think it will ever happen. The
Speaker 3: bill that passed the Senate doa in the House, and
Speaker 3: there's just no path right now as we consider so
Speaker 3: many other matters from Pfizer renewal to actually funding our government.
Speaker 3: Are European leaders starting to think this money may never
Speaker 3: arrive or do they think that Washington just takes a
Speaker 3: long time to get around to it.
Speaker 8: Oh.
Speaker 7: I think they're very concerned that this money may not arrive,
Speaker 7: and they come to that conclusion reluctantly because they see
Speaker 7: the inaction by House. Republicans principally large by party. Artisan
Speaker 7: majorities in both the Senate and the House support funding
Speaker 7: defensive systems for Ukraine. And by the way, most of
Speaker 7: that money is invested in the United States in our
Speaker 7: own weapons production, so that we can backfill the older
Speaker 7: systems that we've given to Ukraine. Large bipartisan majorities support this.
Speaker 7: Republicans two dozen Republicans in the Senate support this. This
Speaker 7: is really up to Speaker Johnson to bring this vote
Speaker 7: to the floor of the House. If he does that,
Speaker 7: I am confident it will pass and it will assuage
Speaker 7: concerns from our allies here gathered in Germany. If we
Speaker 7: don't do that, then the world will look at us
Speaker 7: and say, why cannot Washington act in the face of
Speaker 7: this obvious aggression from Putin and the Kremlin.
Speaker 9: Well, of course, there's many branches to the government, to
Speaker 9: the Washington machine, and in the absence of action from
Speaker 9: the legislative branch, and this was a question post to
Speaker 9: President Biden when he spoke in the last hour, is
Speaker 9: there anything realistically that the executive branch or the DoD
Speaker 9: specifically could do I know you understand the deal quite well.
Speaker 9: Is there really no options here for the Pentagon if
Speaker 9: Congress doesn't give them to say so?
Speaker 7: Well, the Defense Department will use every ability that has,
Speaker 7: every authority, it has, every weapons platform it can provide
Speaker 7: to help Ukraine as much as it can. But fundamentally,
Speaker 7: at the end of the day, the Defense Department cannot
Speaker 7: spend money unless Congress approves it, and so this is
Speaker 7: really up to the Congress to authorize and appropriate the
Speaker 7: money so that the Defense Department can turn around and
Speaker 7: support Ukraine. It's a very small percentage of our defense
Speaker 7: budget and it really redounds to the benefit of the
Speaker 7: American people, to our defense industry. But again, for I
Speaker 7: guess political reasons, maybe listening to the signals sent by
Speaker 7: Donald Trump about how he would want to destroy NATO
Speaker 7: and cave to Putin. I don't exactly know why, but
Speaker 7: for some reason, Republicans in Congress don't want to bring
Speaker 7: this bill up for a vote. I think if they did,
Speaker 7: it would pass with bipartisan majorities.
Speaker 3: Jeremy Bash you spent time as part of the CIA's
Speaker 3: senior management team overseeing the team that killed Osama bin
Speaker 3: Laden We're in a dangerous world right now as we
Speaker 3: talk about a number of fronts here, and I'm curious
Speaker 3: your thoughts on the strikes that we've seen by the
Speaker 3: US in the Middle East going after Iranian backed proxy
Speaker 3: groups that have been causing quite a bit of trouble
Speaker 3: in the Red Sea in Iraq and Syria. Are we
Speaker 3: doing enough to make a difference? What else should be done?
Speaker 7: Well, we are definitively in a proxy you were with Iran.
Speaker 7: I mean these attacks that have unfolded against our allies,
Speaker 7: against our bases, against our troops, against American citizens. Don't
Speaker 7: forget six American citizens are still being held hostage by
Speaker 7: Hamas in Gaza at this hour. So this is a
Speaker 7: fight not just against Israel. It's a fight, frankly against
Speaker 7: the United Dates and all of Western democracies. And Iran
Speaker 7: has unleashed this wave of terrorism because fundamentally, it did
Speaker 7: not want to see regional integration. It did not want
Speaker 7: to see Arab Israeli peace, which the nice was brokeering
Speaker 7: between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This was
Speaker 7: in play before October seventh, and as a result of that,
Speaker 7: Iran and As proxies and surrogates and terrorist organizations have
Speaker 7: unleashed horrific violence against the United States, our allies, our bases,
Speaker 7: and our troops. It's fired on ships, it's fired on
Speaker 7: international ships. And so I think the United States and
Speaker 7: President Biden were absolutely correct in conducting air strikes against
Speaker 7: Iranian targets inside Iraq and Syria against those surrogates and proxies.
Speaker 7: We're going to have to continue to do that to
Speaker 7: keep deterrens high during this very very dangerous time.
Speaker 9: Well, and of course, Jeremy, there continues to be a
Speaker 9: lot of conversations about what happens the day after this
Speaker 9: conflict is ultimately resolved, if indeed that day comes. Is
Speaker 9: there a feeling in Munich today that a two state
Speaker 9: solution in the future really is possible.
Speaker 7: Look, Hamas could surrender today, they could give up the hostages,
Speaker 7: and they could essentially say, you know, we're not going
Speaker 7: to fight this war. Fundamentally, if you care about a
Speaker 7: two state solution, if you care about Palestinian statehood alongside Israel,
Speaker 7: you want to see Hamas degraded, if not outright destroyed,
Speaker 7: Because Hamas opposes a Palestinian state. Any compromise with Israel.
Speaker 7: So you know, I wouldn't call it the I don't
Speaker 7: want to say there's any optimism here. I would call
Speaker 7: there's a resolute feeling here among allies and partners that
Speaker 7: it's important to destroy terrorist organizations. If we can bring
Speaker 7: the war to an end by having hostages released and
Speaker 7: a cease fire, obviously that's the optimal.
Speaker 5: It's optimal for Israel.
Speaker 7: But I don't see any scenario in which Hamas can
Speaker 7: be left standing. You wouldn't want a serial killer living
Speaker 7: next door to you, even if you degrade their capability.
Speaker 7: If a serial killer was living next door to you,
Speaker 7: you would not sleep very well at night.
Speaker 9: All right, Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff at the
Speaker 9: DD and CI, I thank you very much for your
Speaker 9: time joining us live in what is now evening at
Speaker 9: the Munich Security Conference, where, of course there are many
Speaker 9: geopolitical matters that are on the agenda, Joe, and probably
Speaker 9: a conversation they didn't expect to be having today about
Speaker 9: what impact the death of Alexi Navonney will have, whether
Speaker 9: it actually provides something of a galvanizing force to Western
Speaker 9: allies to do more to help Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Really fascinating peak inside the conference. It's going to be
Speaker 3: lasting the weekend. It's an annual event. To your point, Kayley,
Speaker 3: the timing is quite remarkable this time around. Thanks for
Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to
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