1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay. 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 2: And then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. I'm 8 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew in Washington, d C. With a lot to 9 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: cover this hour, and we begin with the death of 10 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 3: Alexi NAVONNEI forty seven years old. The story that we're 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 3: hearing from the Federal Prison Service is like something out 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 3: of a bad movie. Out with a statement said, Navalney 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 3: felt unwell after a walk on Friday. He lost consciousness 14 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 3: and ambulance arrived. They tried to rehabilitate him, it says, 15 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: but he died. Now remembering back in December, friends and 16 00:00:55,960 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 3: family lost track of him. He later emerged in a 17 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 3: remote Arctic prison camp. As I said, it's like something 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 3: out of a bad movie. We are waiting to hear 19 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 3: now from President Biden. This is a late add to 20 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 3: the schedule. He was set to begin speaking three minutes 21 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 3: ago high noon from the White House. Knowing that President 22 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 3: Biden has a trip to Ohio today. He's on his 23 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 3: way to East Palestine, where we also expect remarks later on. 24 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 3: But when he speaks to this issue of Navalney will 25 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: bring it to you live here on Bloomberg Radio, on 26 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: the satellite and on YouTube, and with us here in 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 3: studio to get things started is Nick Wahams, who of 28 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 3: course runs our national security team here at Bloomberg. 29 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: It's good to see you. 30 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 3: I know you've been very busy on this and it's 31 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: obviously a deeply troubling story. I just wonder the political 32 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: ramifications here in the US. Joe Biden is about to 33 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 3: seize on this. What do you think we hear from him? 34 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 4: Well, it'll be very interesting because you know, it was 35 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 4: President Biden who had said some months ago that if 36 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 4: Alexin have only died in Russian custody, the consequences for 37 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin would be quote unquote devastating. So you know, 38 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 4: who knows what that will mean if it's sanctions. Sanctions 39 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 4: have not devastated Russia so far, so, but he's going 40 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 4: to have to do something. The big question for me 41 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 4: is what does this do for Ukraine aid? I mean, 42 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 4: this military AID has been tied up sixty billion dollars 43 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 4: in Congress. Obviously, the condemnations from all sides coming fast 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 4: and furious right now. So does this pry loose or 45 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 4: add to pressure to House Republicans to unlock that aid? 46 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: Is it too early to answer that. 47 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 3: We saw a statement from a Speaker of the House 48 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 3: who has said that this Ukraine and Israel Taiwan funding 49 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 3: bill is doa We've been through this before, a very 50 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: stern statement calling putin a dictator in his written statement. 51 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 3: At least does this move the needle in the House? 52 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 4: You know, The question is whether it will really add 53 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 4: to the pressure. I mean, the issue for Johnson is 54 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 4: that he has stated so much of his reputation now 55 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: on making sure this bill does not go through. I mean, 56 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 4: we are seeing some other stuff that's going to be 57 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 4: just as troubling. Russian forces making advances on some Ukrainian towns, 58 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 4: one in particular, where essentially it's all come down to munitions. 59 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 4: The Russian dominance on artillery shells has meant that it 60 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 4: really has the advantage and is able to press and 61 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 4: take back some territory from Ukraine that it had previously seized, 62 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,679 Speaker 4: and then lost, so you know, you are starting to 63 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 4: see a real impact on the ground as well as 64 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: a result of the US not being able to send 65 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 4: that funding. So pressure is mounting on Speaker Johnson. 66 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 3: Give us your view on Vladimir Putin right now. You 67 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 3: just mentioned a couple of important points, and I'll add 68 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 3: to them. We have this news of a hypersonic missile 69 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: being used in Ukraine for the first time. This week, 70 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 3: we spent a lot of time talking about space nukes, 71 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 3: even though that's not really what they are. We had 72 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 3: his sort of tongue in cheek endorsement of Joe Biden. 73 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 3: Is he feeling emboldened by the lack of action here 74 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 3: in the US? 75 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 4: Well, I mean certainly this plays right to his strength. 76 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 4: So anytime there's division in the US, that's something he 77 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: seeks to exploit. So the you know, quote unquote endorsement 78 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 4: of Joe Biden just is just a perfect example of 79 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 4: a way in which he's trying to sort of stir 80 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 4: the pot in the US. I mean, there are a 81 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 4: couple of things happening here that are really interesting, the 82 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 4: satellite thing, for example, the nukes. I mean, that was 83 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 4: a leak from a member of Congress that was designed 84 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 4: to put pressure on various people for all sorts of 85 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: other reasons. So there is an element of a snowball 86 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 4: where you have Putin doing certain things, but then the 87 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 4: fervor in Washington gets to be particularly spikey, so then 88 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 4: more comes in and it's just like Russia, Russia, Russia 89 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 4: all the time. I mean, not to quote Donald Trumper. 90 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the way he operates, though to your point, 91 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: he knows when to seize the moment. It's not a 92 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 3: coincidence that Tucker Carlson showed up for a big interview 93 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: to run on the US right right, you know. 94 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 4: I think what you're seeing too is he wants to 95 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 4: be in the center of the I mean it's almost 96 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 4: like there's no such thing as bad publicity for Vladimir Putin. 97 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 4: The Navalni thing is really interesting. I mean, you can't 98 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 4: say that this was not what Russia actually intended. He 99 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 4: had been put in successively worse and worse and worse 100 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 4: prison conditions. I mean, based on the dispatches we had 101 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 4: heard from him and his lawyers, I mean, he was essentially, 102 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 4: you know, in extremely poor health, in an awful situation. 103 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 4: And obviously President Biden had thought this might be coming, saying, 104 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 4: you know, the consequences would be devastating. So again, all 105 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 4: eyes on the president right now. 106 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 3: Well, we'll be of course listening closely when he speaks, 107 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 3: and we'll bring as I mentioned, President Biden's remarks to 108 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 3: you here on a Bloomberg radio and on YouTube. Nick 109 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: Wadham's great to see you. Thank you so much as 110 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: always for jumping on breaking news and helping us understand 111 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 3: what's happening in many cases on the other side of 112 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: the world. I want to add the voice of Terry Haynes, 113 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 3: who was out with some interesting thoughts on this earlier today, 114 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 3: of course, the founder of Pangea Policy. You've got a 115 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 3: lot to talk about today with Terry. It's good to 116 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 3: see you, sir. Uh This, based on what I'm reading 117 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 3: from your note to clients earlier today, does not do 118 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 3: much for the debate surrounding Ukraine funding here in Washington. 119 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 5: What's your take, Oh, I think it was that those 120 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 5: notes were to you. By the way, Number one, you're 121 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 5: my client. I haven't written the clients today about this, 122 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 5: and a good thing because as you pointed out, the 123 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 5: world's very fast moving right now. Uh So, anything I 124 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 5: would say is probably out of date. An hour later, 125 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 5: I don't think Navalni has much much of anything to 126 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 5: do with the debate, sadly, and you know, as Nick 127 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 5: pointed out, Uh, you know, you could almost assume a 128 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 5: Navalni demise. I'm very sorry to say, but you know, 129 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 5: the and the United States gets into trouble when it starts, 130 00:06:55,000 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 5: uh moving foreign policy chips around based on the death 131 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 5: or murder of one person in particular, whether it's Navalny 132 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 5: or Jamal Kashogi for another example. You know, where all 133 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 5: of a sudden, study Arabia was a pariah, and then 134 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 5: then we were fist bumping, and now then we were 135 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 5: working on Middle East peaks and now I'm not entirely 136 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 5: sure what we're doing. But you know, but it goes 137 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 5: back and forth and sideways. I don't think it has 138 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 5: much of an effect. I think the Russian space nuke thing, 139 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 5: I'll call it may well, but there are too many 140 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 5: variables right now, so we really don't know. 141 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 3: Well we don't, although there is I guess a new bill, 142 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,559 Speaker 3: a Plan D as they're calling it in the House 143 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 3: right now, that does take a slightly different approach to 144 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 3: funding through the eyes at least of House Republicans more 145 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 3: palatable terry. Does it give you the sense when you 146 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: see something immerged like this, that there, in fact will 147 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 3: be a debate and an eventual compromise. 148 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think so. Let me just put it this way. 149 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 5: You know, Washington, you know, particularly where you're sitting right now, 150 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 5: in the restaurants in the immediate area, are full of 151 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 5: people all talking about process, why process is so difficult, 152 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 5: why process is not going to make this happen. While 153 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 5: process is, you know, is the friend of those who 154 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 5: want to stop Ukraine Aid. My response is simply, you've 155 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 5: got a situation where three quarters of the House wants 156 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 5: Ukraine Aid in addition to the Senate, in addition to 157 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 5: the President. So there's that number one. Number two, what 158 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 5: you see in the in the bipartisan problem solvers bill 159 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 5: that's out today is really what the House should have 160 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 5: been doing anyway last week, which is saying, okay, well 161 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 5: we don't you know, we're not completely in favor of 162 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 5: your bill, but you know, let's go to conference and 163 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,599 Speaker 5: you know, get more of what we want. You know, 164 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 5: there's an awful lot of political and policy cowardice going 165 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 5: on on both sides of the Island in both houses, 166 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 5: where people just don't want to stand up and say, Okay, 167 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 5: we're going to work this process through and we're going 168 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 5: to get most of what we want. They'd rather not 169 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,679 Speaker 5: get anything or be purer than get most of what 170 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 5: they want. What Brian Fitzpatrick and the others are saying 171 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 5: is no, we're going to move forward here and we're 172 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 5: going to try to put our shoulders to the wheel 173 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 5: and try to make this happen. I think there's an 174 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 5: awful lot of pressure even though you've got Republicans against 175 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 5: Ukraine Eate on the right, you've got left Democrats against 176 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 5: certain parts of the Israeli aid package. I think there's 177 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 5: going to be an awful lot of pressure from the 178 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 5: rank and file and the centrists here to make something happen, 179 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 5: which is fundamentally why I think something does. 180 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: Fascinating. 181 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 3: A couple of things I want to ask you about this, 182 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 3: including how the President seizes on the moment he's going 183 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 3: to try to leverage this news I assume to move 184 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 3: Ukraine funding. Are we in for another dangerous world speech? 185 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 3: What's coming from the White House today? 186 00:09:59,000 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 6: Oh? 187 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 5: I imagine? So, yeah, We're in for a dangerous world speech, 188 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 5: and we're in we're in UH, and I'm sorry to say, 189 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 5: for another I call on the Congress to do their 190 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 5: jobs UH speech. What's left out of that, of course, 191 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 5: is UH is Biden's willingness to actually jump out there 192 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 5: and do whatever he can to make that happen. 193 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 7: Uh. 194 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 5: He's got very little ability to do that, by and 195 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 5: large because he doesn't really have any political capital to use. 196 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 5: You know, a president that has shown himself I say 197 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 5: this not in a partisan sense, just in a keen 198 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 5: political observer sense. A president has shown himself an octor 199 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 5: his progressive wing for the last three years. 200 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 2: You know. 201 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 5: One of the things that tells you is he doesn't 202 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 5: have the ability to move his Democrats very much. 203 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: UH. 204 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 5: And in fact, one thing I always point out is, 205 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 5: UH successes in Congress have existed, particularly with the Inflation 206 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 5: Reduction Act, have existed in particular because Biden's been told 207 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 5: to stay away from it by Democratic Leader Schumer. That 208 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 5: happened with the IRA, it happened with infrastructure. You notice 209 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 5: the lack of white House in direct involvement in what 210 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 5: the Senate did on the Ukraine Bill. As part of that, 211 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 5: they white House was informed of Schumer's course of action 212 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 5: wasn't asked for it. So what you have here is 213 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 5: a situation where you know Biden's going to urge the 214 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 5: Congress to do something and then go back in and 215 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 5: do whatever else is next on his schedule. But you know, 216 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 5: if they want this, they need to pull out all 217 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 5: the stops to make it happen. If they don't, the 218 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 5: conclusion that Congress draws the people that have the votes 219 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 5: is that Biden doesn't really care about it very much. 220 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 5: So he's going to have to start to care if 221 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 5: he's going to if he's going to actually make something happen. 222 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 3: I want to talk to you about government funding, specifically 223 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 3: defense spending at terry, But first, what should be done 224 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 3: about this the Valney story. I know you're not a 225 00:11:56,040 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 3: military analyst or specializing in national security necessarily with this 226 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 3: President did promise I believe devastating consequences if this happened 227 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 3: for Vladimir Putin or could we be in for another 228 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 3: announcement today? 229 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 5: I don't see what Thanks for the frame there, but 230 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 5: I don't see what they can do that will change 231 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 5: the narrative. In particular, you know, the you know the 232 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 5: best thing he could do is put a shoulder the 233 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 5: wheel and get Ukraine aid done. The best thing he 234 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 5: could do is to figure out some aggressive course on 235 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 5: you know what again we'll call the Russian space nuke issue, 236 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 5: although you accurately point out it's not really that, but 237 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 5: you know, do some do something about that, because that's 238 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 5: going to be another issue where if he doesn't do 239 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 5: something and show that he's doing something, you know that 240 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 5: the passivity on that issue might well trap him. 241 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 3: So think about everything that we've talked about so far, 242 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 3: Terry Haynes. You connect the dots on all of this stuff, 243 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 3: and I wonder what it means for the argument over 244 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 3: funding the government, specifically the Pentagon. This is going to 245 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: make a cr or a minibus even less palatable to 246 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 3: hawks in the House want it. What's going to happen 247 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 3: when lawmakers come back? Do you think we're shutting down 248 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: in March? 249 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 5: Well, firstly, I give great credit to Bloomberg hosts, particularly 250 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 5: you for not laughing when you were interviewing a member 251 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 5: of the House Republican leadership yesterday. That was good of 252 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 5: you your profession, but. 253 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 3: It is it is so you're laughing, is what you're saying? 254 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 5: Well, it's you know it is la it's laughable. I'm 255 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 5: sorry to say. You know, Emmer was doing the best 256 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 5: he could but at this but you know, when you're 257 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 5: going away and you've got three days to come back 258 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 5: and finalize some sort of a deal for all the 259 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 5: all the funding priorities, and what you've seen in the 260 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 5: last six months is every time they go away, exactly 261 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 5: nothing happens. What that adds up to this time is 262 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 5: another nothing's going to happen. So Johnston's going to be 263 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 5: caught again with a situation where you know, Emmer can 264 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 5: say what he likes, but a situation where there's going 265 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 5: to be another extension of funding. Firstly, Secondly, I would 266 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 5: say underneath that there's probably going to be a revision 267 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 5: of and a relook at what the defense funding is 268 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 5: going to be because you'll recall Congress already in the 269 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 5: last fiscal year basically told Biden know that however much 270 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 5: money you want for defense isn't enough, and they added 271 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 5: on another three percent. You're likely to see that between 272 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 5: Ukraine Ofney, the Russian space nuke issue, you know, you're 273 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 5: likely to see all that go on to really pump 274 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 5: it up even more. 275 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 3: Well, March is going to be interesting. I just want 276 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 3: you to know, Terry, we officially have the countdown clock up. 277 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 3: While you were speaking, the countdown to the show Down 278 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 3: as officially underway. I've been looking forward to seeing you, Terry. 279 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 3: Thanks for joining. He's the founder of Pangaea Policy with 280 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 3: the Insider's View today in Washington, an important one for us. 281 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 282 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then. 283 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. 284 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 285 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty. 286 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. 287 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 3: This is a late addition to the schedule here did 288 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 3: Joe Biden say enough? Having promised devastating consequences if this 289 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 3: were to happen. 290 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,479 Speaker 6: You know, I think we do need to know. Obviously, 291 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 6: we just got the news that he passed away earlier today, 292 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 6: and they're still waiting to confirm it. As the President said, 293 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 6: if it's to be believed, he has no reason not 294 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 6: to believe it. But they do need confirmation, and then 295 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 6: I think they need to be very clear on how 296 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 6: they are going to respond, considering he did promise to 297 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 6: respond forcefully. I was a little bit surprised that he 298 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 6: did not take the opportunity to call out by name 299 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 6: those people in the House who are holding up this 300 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 6: funding and to make clear that there is a way 301 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 6: in which he is going to be active in pushing 302 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 6: for this and you know, to make those stakes very clear. 303 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 6: That said, I think you know the idea that he 304 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 6: took questions after his last go around with the press, 305 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 6: I was also surprised, and he seemed to handle those 306 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 6: very well, and they were on a variety of topics. 307 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 3: He had a couple of stumbles there when he was 308 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 3: trying to check himself Rick, But how did he perform 309 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 3: and did he say enough about how to handle Vladimir Putin? 310 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, hey, fine. 311 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 8: I mean for an eighty two year old president, he 312 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 8: knocked it out of the park, you know what I mean. 313 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 8: The bottom line is he should have announced some kind 314 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 8: of sanctions against the Russian leadership for their complicity in 315 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 8: the death of Alexei Navalny. It's outrageous after all that's 316 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 8: been said and done, that we're still quote taking under consideration. 317 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 8: We know what the different things are that we can 318 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 8: do with Russia. We've been talking about for years and 319 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 8: years and years, literally almost since Vladimir Putin got in 320 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 8: to office. We've been planning sanctions. It doesn't take ten 321 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 8: seconds to put a bunch on a list and say 322 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 8: this is what we're going to do as of today 323 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 8: because of the murder of Alexi Navalny. And so another 324 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 8: sort of weak response that's not actually going to get 325 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 8: any momentum in Congress because the people who care about 326 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 8: this are already outraged, and probably more outraged than President 327 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 8: Biden just discussed. I think it's great that he made 328 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 8: the statement, but it was another weak attempt at trying 329 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 8: to sable rattle rather than drive a saber into the 330 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 8: Russian leap. I would also say just one point of outrage. 331 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 8: You know, we've all been talking about Tucker Carlson's trip 332 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 8: to Moscow, his very placid interview with Putin, But like today, 333 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 8: he was in Dubai at a conference and said, in 334 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 8: relationship to the death of Alexi Navalni that leadership requires 335 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 8: killing people. 336 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 1: Well, if this is not the most. 337 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 8: Outrageous thing for American to say in a public forum, 338 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 8: I can't imagine why, and anybody who would give a 339 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 8: forum to this person who has these kinds of views 340 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 8: should be condemned at first. 341 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 2: Blush. 342 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 8: So sorry to rattle on on this, but pretty emotional 343 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 8: day for those of us who care about freedom. 344 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know that would be Elon Musk of course, 345 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 3: harboring and hosting that program on X and I did 346 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 3: see that remark Rick. It was incredible, particularly Genie, when 347 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 3: you consider the way that Tucker Carlson appear to him 348 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 3: been used by Vladimir Putin to spread a message to 349 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 3: the West. 350 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 6: Absolutely right, you know, unconscionable that he would say that. 351 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 6: I do have to say I do support the president 352 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,719 Speaker 6: coming out forcefully on sanctions or other actions, but I 353 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 6: also think the United States government, the president has got 354 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 6: to wait until they are confirmed, and they have confirmed 355 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 6: that he is in fact dead, and as you hear 356 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 6: the President saying, if then that means they shouldn't announce 357 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 6: what they're gonna do. But on Tucker Carlson, absolutely we 358 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 6: heard the EU come back even prior to those statements, 359 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,360 Speaker 6: given his interview with Vlatimir Putin, and say that they 360 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 6: may institute a travel ban. You know, obviously he has 361 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 6: free speech rights to say what he wants. But private 362 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 6: organizations and organizations sponsoring this type of talk, they should 363 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 6: take action. 364 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: You know. 365 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 6: Boycotts and other things by the you know, by people 366 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 6: are absolutely acceptable, you know. An the other thing I 367 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 6: think that we need to be very clear on is 368 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 6: the President I believe should have taken more forcefully and 369 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 6: said everybody wishing you know, good wishes for Navoni's widow 370 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 6: and his family, and you know, condemning his death. They 371 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 6: have got to follow that, specifically the members of the House, 372 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 6: with action on supporting Ukraine, which is why he went 373 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 6: back in twenty twenty to change his government, and he 374 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 6: really was very forceful on the incursion into Ukraine. And 375 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 6: so that type of talk should be followed by action. 376 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 3: Otherwise it's hip critical President speaking to the need to 377 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 3: fund Ukraine, Rick saying the clock is ticking. We expected 378 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 3: that he would use this as an opportunity to kind 379 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 3: of underscore the urgency of the matter. But I find 380 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 3: it interesting here we've got a new bill in the House. 381 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,400 Speaker 3: This is the Plan D Bill, as some are calling it, 382 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 3: forty eight billion in in new aid for Ukraine billions 383 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 3: more for Israel and Indo pack. It comes out though, 384 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 3: to sixty six billion dollars in defense only support as 385 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 3: opposed to more than one hundred billion passed in the Senate. 386 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 3: Is this maybe something that could get traction in the 387 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 3: House or are we turning away from this. 388 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: Now? 389 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 8: I mean, I don't think it's going to get any 390 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 8: more traction than anything else has. 391 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: The reality is, you've got three. 392 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 8: Hundred votes for the Senate bill, at least in the 393 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 8: House of Representatives, and it's all about leadership and whether 394 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 8: or not the Speaker is going to go forward, you know, 395 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 8: with giving Congress a chance to vote on this, or 396 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 8: whether or not the Democrats are going to be able 397 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 8: to post. 398 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 2: Their own bill. 399 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 8: The reality is anything else is just a distraction, you know, 400 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 8: from this, and the idea that at this late stage 401 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 8: that now someone is going to stick a border proposal 402 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 8: on top of a defense only bill is just, you know, 403 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 8: sort of a. 404 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: Flash in the pan. 405 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 8: The Stay in Mexico treaty requires Mexico to say yes 406 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 8: to that, and I doubt if the Congressman has made 407 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 8: any phone calls to Mexico City to line up their support. 408 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:12,159 Speaker 8: So I mean again, just one more example of incompetent 409 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 8: leadership in the house. 410 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 411 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on. 412 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 2: Apple car Play and then Proud with the Bloomberg Business app. 413 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 414 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 415 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 9: Joe Matthew and Kayley Lines live in Washington, but a 416 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 9: lot of the attention has instead been across the Atlantic today, Joe, 417 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 9: after we woke up to news this morning reports of 418 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 9: the death of Russian dissident most vocal opponent to Vladimir 419 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 9: Putin in Russia, Alexi Navolney. And it's news that just 420 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 9: happened to coincide with the Munich Security Conference, in which 421 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 9: a number of Western leaders are gathered to discuss threats 422 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 9: from Russia. On the issue of it for Ukraine. 423 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, we caught up with Senor Ben Cardon and we're 424 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 3: going to speak soon with an important voice, Jeremy Bash 425 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 3: at the conference. The timing here is peculiar and important, frankly, Kayley, 426 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 3: because lawmakers including Hakim Jeffreys, Republicans like Michael McCall are 427 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 3: hearing from European leaders about the lack of funding. 428 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 9: For Ukraine, including as well Senator Ben Cardin's Democrat Democrat 429 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 9: from Maryland who chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Senate. 430 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 9: He joined Bloomberg earlier today. Take a listen to what 431 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 9: he said. 432 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 10: Well, this is a tragic event. Mister Putin is fully 433 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 10: responsible for Miss Novulti's apparent death. It is absolutely tragic. 434 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 10: The Vice President spoke here at the Munich Security Conference, 435 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 10: Vice President Harris and repeated that there will be consequences. 436 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 10: Mister Putin's actions are just against all humanity. 437 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 3: Ben Cardon with us earlier today on Bloomberg as we 438 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 3: bring you back to the Munich Security Conference right now. 439 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 3: As I mentioned, Jeremy bash is with us now at 440 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 3: Beacon Global Strategies. That spent a career in national security 441 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 3: with two very important roles, chief of staff for the 442 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 3: Director of the CIA and chief of staff for the 443 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense. They were both Leon Panetta, who we're 444 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: going to be speaking with later on today in the 445 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 3: late edition of Balance of Power. It's great to have 446 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 3: you with us, sir. I'm curious to hear what you're 447 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 3: hearing in Munich on this news of Alexi Navolney's death. 448 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 5: Well, great to be with you. 449 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 7: It's a somber day here because at this gathering of 450 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 7: Western allies, where America's principal partners for global security gather 451 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 7: annually here at the historic Byershoff Hotel, Normally it's a 452 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 7: moment where the allies can stand shoulder to shoulder and 453 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 7: feel resolute against the threats coming from Russia, coming from China, 454 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 7: coming from other autocrats. But today, of course, the conference 455 00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 7: was rocked by the news that Alexi Navalni was murdered. 456 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 7: Putin murdered by the Kremlin. Of course, Navalni was the 457 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 7: most prominent outspoken critic of Putin and Putinism, and it really, 458 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 7: I think, put the spotlight right back on the US Congress, 459 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 7: which at this hour is considering whether to fund defensive 460 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 7: systems for Ukraine, and the world is watching. The world 461 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 7: is watching whether or not the United States will act 462 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 7: in defense of Ukraine. You know who else is watching. 463 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 7: China's watching. They want to see and understand whether or 464 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 7: not Washington can stand by its allies and partners as 465 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 7: they think about their next moves in the Indo Pacific. 466 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 7: So this is a very consequential moment. I think the 467 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 7: Vice President Vice President Harris and President Biden today delivered 468 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 7: a very strong and effective rebuke to the Kremlin and 469 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 7: warned our adversaries that their will be consequences. 470 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 9: And as you say, Jeremy, I'm sure adversaries are paying 471 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 9: close attention to the way the US moves forward here, 472 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 9: but our allies surely are as well, especially in light 473 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 9: of remarks from former President and Donald Trump within the 474 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 9: last week suggesting that if he were president again, he 475 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,400 Speaker 9: may not come to the defense of NATO allies who 476 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 9: he doesn't think are paying enough into the alliance. How 477 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 9: much concern or fear do you sense among European partners 478 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 9: that are gathered there about what may happen under a 479 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 9: future Trump administration. 480 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 7: There is a tremendous amount of concern here among our allies, 481 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 7: those allies who have fought, those allies who have died 482 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 7: with us on the battlefield, that if Trump is elected, 483 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 7: he will pull the rug out from under NATO. He 484 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 7: will give a green light to putin and autocrats from 485 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 7: around the world will think that they have a green 486 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 7: light to run over borders, invade our allies, and that 487 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 7: American power will be significantly weakened. The statements from Donald 488 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,199 Speaker 7: Trump last week evidenced themes that were frankly weak, that 489 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 7: were an American that have shocked our allies and partners. 490 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 7: And I think Vice President Harris here today and President 491 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 7: Biden back in Washington may clear with the United States 492 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,880 Speaker 7: as long as they're in control, they will stand by 493 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 7: our allies and partners. And that's incredibly important for international security. 494 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 7: It's incredibly important for the American people. We benefit from 495 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 7: having America at the center of this very important alliance structure, 496 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 7: and if Trump has its way, that alliance structure could 497 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:16,120 Speaker 7: very well crumble. 498 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about this further, about this 499 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 3: debate over Ukraine funding, Jeremy, It's not going well here 500 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 3: in Washington. Some don't think it will ever happen. The 501 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,679 Speaker 3: bill that passed the Senate doa in the House, and 502 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 3: there's just no path right now as we consider so 503 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 3: many other matters from Pfizer renewal to actually funding our government. 504 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 3: Are European leaders starting to think this money may never 505 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 3: arrive or do they think that Washington just takes a 506 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 3: long time to get around to it. 507 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 8: Oh. 508 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 7: I think they're very concerned that this money may not arrive, 509 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 7: and they come to that conclusion reluctantly because they see 510 00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 7: the inaction by House. Republicans principally large by party. Artisan 511 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 7: majorities in both the Senate and the House support funding 512 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 7: defensive systems for Ukraine. And by the way, most of 513 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 7: that money is invested in the United States in our 514 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 7: own weapons production, so that we can backfill the older 515 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 7: systems that we've given to Ukraine. Large bipartisan majorities support this. 516 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 7: Republicans two dozen Republicans in the Senate support this. This 517 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 7: is really up to Speaker Johnson to bring this vote 518 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 7: to the floor of the House. If he does that, 519 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 7: I am confident it will pass and it will assuage 520 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 7: concerns from our allies here gathered in Germany. If we 521 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 7: don't do that, then the world will look at us 522 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,199 Speaker 7: and say, why cannot Washington act in the face of 523 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 7: this obvious aggression from Putin and the Kremlin. 524 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 9: Well, of course, there's many branches to the government, to 525 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 9: the Washington machine, and in the absence of action from 526 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 9: the legislative branch, and this was a question post to 527 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 9: President Biden when he spoke in the last hour, is 528 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 9: there anything realistically that the executive branch or the DoD 529 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 9: specifically could do I know you understand the deal quite well. 530 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 9: Is there really no options here for the Pentagon if 531 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 9: Congress doesn't give them to say so? 532 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 7: Well, the Defense Department will use every ability that has, 533 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 7: every authority, it has, every weapons platform it can provide 534 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 7: to help Ukraine as much as it can. But fundamentally, 535 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 7: at the end of the day, the Defense Department cannot 536 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 7: spend money unless Congress approves it, and so this is 537 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 7: really up to the Congress to authorize and appropriate the 538 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 7: money so that the Defense Department can turn around and 539 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 7: support Ukraine. It's a very small percentage of our defense 540 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 7: budget and it really redounds to the benefit of the 541 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 7: American people, to our defense industry. But again, for I 542 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 7: guess political reasons, maybe listening to the signals sent by 543 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 7: Donald Trump about how he would want to destroy NATO 544 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 7: and cave to Putin. I don't exactly know why, but 545 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 7: for some reason, Republicans in Congress don't want to bring 546 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 7: this bill up for a vote. I think if they did, 547 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 7: it would pass with bipartisan majorities. 548 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 3: Jeremy Bash you spent time as part of the CIA's 549 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:08,239 Speaker 3: senior management team overseeing the team that killed Osama bin 550 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,960 Speaker 3: Laden We're in a dangerous world right now as we 551 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 3: talk about a number of fronts here, and I'm curious 552 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 3: your thoughts on the strikes that we've seen by the 553 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 3: US in the Middle East going after Iranian backed proxy 554 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 3: groups that have been causing quite a bit of trouble 555 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 3: in the Red Sea in Iraq and Syria. Are we 556 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 3: doing enough to make a difference? What else should be done? 557 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 7: Well, we are definitively in a proxy you were with Iran. 558 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 7: I mean these attacks that have unfolded against our allies, 559 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 7: against our bases, against our troops, against American citizens. Don't 560 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 7: forget six American citizens are still being held hostage by 561 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 7: Hamas in Gaza at this hour. So this is a 562 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 7: fight not just against Israel. It's a fight, frankly against 563 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 7: the United Dates and all of Western democracies. And Iran 564 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 7: has unleashed this wave of terrorism because fundamentally, it did 565 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 7: not want to see regional integration. It did not want 566 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 7: to see Arab Israeli peace, which the nice was brokeering 567 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 7: between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This was 568 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 7: in play before October seventh, and as a result of that, 569 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 7: Iran and As proxies and surrogates and terrorist organizations have 570 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 7: unleashed horrific violence against the United States, our allies, our bases, 571 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 7: and our troops. It's fired on ships, it's fired on 572 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 7: international ships. And so I think the United States and 573 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 7: President Biden were absolutely correct in conducting air strikes against 574 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 7: Iranian targets inside Iraq and Syria against those surrogates and proxies. 575 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 7: We're going to have to continue to do that to 576 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 7: keep deterrens high during this very very dangerous time. 577 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 9: Well, and of course, Jeremy, there continues to be a 578 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 9: lot of conversations about what happens the day after this 579 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 9: conflict is ultimately resolved, if indeed that day comes. Is 580 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 9: there a feeling in Munich today that a two state 581 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 9: solution in the future really is possible. 582 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 7: Look, Hamas could surrender today, they could give up the hostages, 583 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 7: and they could essentially say, you know, we're not going 584 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 7: to fight this war. Fundamentally, if you care about a 585 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 7: two state solution, if you care about Palestinian statehood alongside Israel, 586 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 7: you want to see Hamas degraded, if not outright destroyed, 587 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 7: Because Hamas opposes a Palestinian state. Any compromise with Israel. 588 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 7: So you know, I wouldn't call it the I don't 589 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 7: want to say there's any optimism here. I would call 590 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 7: there's a resolute feeling here among allies and partners that 591 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 7: it's important to destroy terrorist organizations. If we can bring 592 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 7: the war to an end by having hostages released and 593 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 7: a cease fire, obviously that's the optimal. 594 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:33,719 Speaker 5: It's optimal for Israel. 595 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 7: But I don't see any scenario in which Hamas can 596 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 7: be left standing. You wouldn't want a serial killer living 597 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 7: next door to you, even if you degrade their capability. 598 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 7: If a serial killer was living next door to you, 599 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 7: you would not sleep very well at night. 600 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 9: All right, Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff at the 601 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,920 Speaker 9: DD and CI, I thank you very much for your 602 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 9: time joining us live in what is now evening at 603 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 9: the Munich Security Conference, where, of course there are many 604 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 9: geopolitical matters that are on the agenda, Joe, and probably 605 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 9: a conversation they didn't expect to be having today about 606 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 9: what impact the death of Alexi Navonney will have, whether 607 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 9: it actually provides something of a galvanizing force to Western 608 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,719 Speaker 9: allies to do more to help Ukraine. 609 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 3: Really fascinating peak inside the conference. It's going to be 610 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 3: lasting the weekend. It's an annual event. To your point, Kayley, 611 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:26,080 Speaker 3: the timing is quite remarkable this time around. Thanks for 612 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to 613 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 3: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever 614 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 3: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 615 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 3: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg 616 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:39,600 Speaker 3: dot com.