1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 2: PODYA, all right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 3: Fifteen Cunny twenty five, thirty thirty five, Tony Cony five fifty. 4 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: And the kick as block Look. 5 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: Stunner, Oh my goodness, please stumbled and fumble, the lateral. 6 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: Turn, the counter of the job, don't you believe? Tap 7 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:35,919 Speaker 1: them up the field to night. 8 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: It's not the sage by any fun, It's the sage 9 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: of the fight in the Welcome to the Big Bets 10 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast, brought to you by Bett MGM. This's 11 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 2: the Group of five Deep Dive. I'm your co host, 12 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: Mike Calvy's joined as always by Mike Ianello and a 13 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: reminders to our audience, you can follow over picks over 14 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: at the Action app. Just type in BBOCG five Deep 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: Dive to track along with our plays throughout the week, 16 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 2: approaching maction when it goes to November, we got some 17 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: belt games during the week. You want to make sure 18 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: that you have the alert set up so that you 19 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: can see every single one of our picks Tuesday through Saturday. 20 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: All right, I know, so I would like to bring 21 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: some positivity right off the top here and go with 22 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 2: our G five heroes. 23 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: Lock Hero fame. 24 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: For my G five hero, I'm going with Hinley Brigham, 25 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 2: the running back coach at UAB. He's done a great 26 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 2: job over the years. He coached up Spencer Brown, who 27 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 2: is an undrafted free as in the NFL. Now he's 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 2: working his magic with Dwayne McBride. We were on UAB 29 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: laying the points last week and the rushing attack went 30 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 2: berserk and they went for over three d yards against 31 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee. Really didn't devate from the script whatsoever. Gonna 32 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 2: give a hat tip to him for coaching up one 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 2: of the best units in all of the G five. 34 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: Who's your G five here with the week? Here? 35 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: I know I'm going with Speaking of action, Aledo cornerback 36 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:06,919 Speaker 1: Quinyan Mitchell. This dude had four interceptions against Northern Illinois. 37 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: Two of them he returned to the house for pick sixes, 38 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: and he very quickly finds himself third in the country 39 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 1: in interceptions. I don't know why they kept thrown at him, 40 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: but I'm glad they did. Quinyan Mitchell G five Hero 41 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: of the Week. 42 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 2: Would you say that perhaps inflated Toledo's value in that 43 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 2: game they went by I think what twenty against you? 44 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 2: And I and then I don't know, maybe we'll readdress 45 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 2: this later in the podcast. How about that? All right? 46 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,679 Speaker 2: So let's get your best bet here in week seven 47 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: to get things started. 48 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: I'm sticking in the back. I'm taking Eastern Michigan minus 49 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: two and a half against Northern Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 50 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: just a totally different team when Taylor Powell is healthy 51 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: the three and one with him, he's averaging two hundred 52 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: and ninety five yards per game seven touchdowns in his 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: full games. Samson Evans he rushed for one hundred and 54 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: five yards per game as well, and this team ranks 55 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: twentieth in the country in success rate, including seventh in rushing. 56 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: Northern Illinois is one hundred and nineteenth and success rate 57 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: on defense, they're one hundred and twenty first at defending. 58 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: Exposed to this, they're one of the worst teams in 59 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: the country ats defending the past. It's non alloy defense 60 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: is just terrible. They've allowed twenty two touchdown passes and 61 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: at least three passing touchdowns in every game this year. 62 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: They've played Eastern Illinois, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Kentucky Ball State, and Toledo, 63 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: and they've given up twenty two touchdown passes to the 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: Who's the best quarterback of that group? NFL draft experts 65 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: would say Will Levis, but I don't know. He probably 66 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: is the best of that group. But still, uh. Eastern 67 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: Michigan is eighteenth in the country and finishing drives. Norland, 68 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: Illinois is one hundred and twenty ninth at preventing finishing drives. 69 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: On defense, I think Michigan is gonna throw the ball 70 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: all over them and every time they get into scoring territory, 71 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: they're going to score. Nordland Nooy, on the other hand, 72 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: has lost five straight games, three of them without Rocky Lombardi, 73 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: who still has questioned all this week. I don't know 74 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: that he'll be back, and we all know I think 75 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: rock film Bardy stinks. But even all on May, he's 76 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: better than Ethan Hampton, who is averaging just six yards 77 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: per attempt, seven touchdowns, six interceptions. We talked about it 78 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: all year other than only won the MAC last year 79 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: on just all luck. We said the regression monster was coming. 80 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: It's here. They're just bad and I'm gonna lay it 81 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 1: underfield goal With Eastern Michigan, I. 82 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 2: Mean, you're stat right off the top. The performance of 83 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan and gets the spread with Taylor Powell as 84 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: their QP one. That's the key number here and a 85 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: great reclamation project story. Honestly, you know he had been 86 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: all over the map playing for multiple schools. You want 87 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 2: to see him finish his career strong. It certainly seems 88 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 2: like it's it's been a successful marriage thus far in 89 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 2: the MAC for him. I'm gonna go with a team 90 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 2: that you're familiar with. We're gonna cueue up the wolf Pack, 91 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: wolf in the shot gun and he's got him asking 92 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:58,559 Speaker 2: you shall receive my friends from Hayden Wolf Bang Bang. 93 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 2: I'm gonna say old Dominion plus thirteen against Coastal Carolina. 94 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 2: And it has to be said at this point because 95 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 2: James Madison is undefeated in the sun Belton they're in 96 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: the top twenty five and Coastal Carolina is undefeated, but 97 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 2: not of the same quality. Walker Basham is an Action 98 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: Network colleague. He does a great job putting together these 99 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 2: dynamic one sheeters that update with the five factors how 100 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 2: teams perform against explosive plays on offense and defense, and 101 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 2: looking at Coastal it's very clear thanks to the color 102 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 2: coding that They're just not the team that they appear 103 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 2: to have been in the last two years. The ten 104 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 2: Power rankings have them seventy third nationally, and the big 105 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 2: thing is they give up big plays through the air 106 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: ninety eighth overall and explosiveness allowed. And here comes the 107 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: Monarchs their eighteenth and passing explosiveness almost all thanks to 108 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: Allie Jennings the third twenty one and a half yards 109 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 2: per clip, which is number one among wide receivers in 110 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 2: G five lands with fifteen or more receptions this year. 111 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 2: I'm not going to overthink this. I've watched more than 112 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 2: my share of Coastal Carolina games this year outside of 113 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 2: McColl and you know what they've done in the backfield. 114 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: They're just not special this year. So I think they're 115 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 2: coasting on a reputation that they've earned in the lastew 116 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: years winning so many games. But thirteen is a lot 117 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,799 Speaker 2: of points to an old Dominion team that is feisty, 118 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 2: that has some good wins already this season. I'm going 119 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 2: to go with Odu. Any thoughts on fading the Shants. 120 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: You know, a team that's really earned their way into 121 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:23,799 Speaker 2: the hearts of gamblers over the past two seasons. 122 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: Oh, Mike, who might as well jump into the G 123 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: five high five right here? Shall we? 124 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 2: Let's do it? 125 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: The G five high five should be high five high five. 126 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: I'm taking over fifty six and a half in that 127 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: game for kind of a lot of the things you 128 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: talked about. You talked about the explosiveness that Old Dominion's 129 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: offense have. They're eighteenth in the country in passing exposed 130 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: to this, and yeah, this Coastal defense has really taken 131 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: a step back in defending exposed in this, especially the past. 132 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 1: Ali Jennings is a star one hundred and thirty seven 133 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: yards per game that leads the entire country. You know, 134 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: Hayden Wolf nine touchdowns just one or so. I do 135 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: like what Old Domnion is gonna be to do on offense. 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 1: And I agree this is a big mismatch about what 137 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: Coastal does giving up explosive plays, and Old Dominion is 138 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: a very explosive offense. But on the flip side, we 139 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: thought Grayson McCall would take a step back after losing 140 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 1: all of his weapons. Jvon highly Isaiah likely. He's still 141 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: completing seventy percent of his passes. He has fifteen touchdowns, 142 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: just one interception, he is so damn good. I mean, 143 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: he is just so good. And then you mentioned in 144 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: the backfield they lost TOAMRII. Jones. The NFL Ryes White 145 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: and Brandon Bennett were expected to be their top two backs. 146 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: Well Bennett hasn't even played yet, Whites missed the last 147 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: three games. And oh, yep, incomes you know CJ. Beasley 148 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: averaging eighty seven yards per game. He's gone over one 149 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: hundred yards and two of the last three games. I 150 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: believe it was your G five here of the week 151 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: last week. This Jamie Chadwell offense is just such a 152 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,239 Speaker 1: well oiled machine. It's about as good of an offense 153 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: you'll see the G five. I don't know how Chadwell 154 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: doesn't end up in the Power five next year. They're 155 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 1: ninth in the country in success rate, fourth passing success, 156 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: twenty fourth in rushing success. They just do everything well. 157 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: And this Old Dominion team has very much struggled against 158 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: the run. So I think Coastal is gonna be able 159 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: to just do what they do, run their offense and 160 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: move the ball, you know, consistently on this Old Dominion defense. 161 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: And then when Old a Million has the ball, it's 162 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: gonna be the big play. They're gonna score quickly. So 163 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: I kind of like what you said about Old Dominion. 164 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: I do agree with you. If I was going to 165 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: take a side, I would play obviously riding with the Wolfpack. 166 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: But I also like the over here because I think 167 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: Coastal is gonna be able to move the ball in 168 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: this defense, and I like the explosive factor of the 169 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: Old Dominion offense. So we're gonna gonna give you a 170 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 1: little two for one special here. 171 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: Nice little bonus for ODU that they got Blake Watson 172 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 2: back last week. This is, you know, statistically one of 173 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 2: the worst rushing teams in the country, but for most 174 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 2: of that time he was banged up, he was off 175 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 2: the field comes back. I think he had eighty rushing 176 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 2: guards last year. It gives him just a little bit 177 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: of balance, just enough to keep the defenders in the box. 178 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 2: Interested for Coastal. All right, for my addition to the 179 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 2: G five five five, I'm gonna go with another sun 180 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: Belt play here. I'm kind of surprised to see Louisiana 181 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 2: Monroe catching seventeen at South Alabama. It's been a long 182 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 2: time since the Warhawks have been featy. But I think 183 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: That's exactly what they are right now. An outright win 184 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 2: against Louisiana, who had been the gold standard in the 185 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 2: Sun Belt West for years, and a seven point loss 186 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 2: last week to Coastal Carolina. They cover that number of 187 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 2: twelve and a half, and honestly, it just comes down 188 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: to am I getting a lot of points into a 189 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 2: trust the quarterback. I do trust the quarterback. Chandler Rogers 190 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 2: and Sunbelt play six to total touchdowns against just one interception, 191 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 2: seventy percent completions, and thirty six yards per game on 192 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 2: the ground as a dual threat. Last year, they were 193 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 2: a two touchdown underdog to South Alabama at home, which 194 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 2: was the largest against FBS opponent in terms of points 195 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: being laid by the Jaguars in over three years. They 196 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: go out and win that game outright. Rogers was dynamic, 197 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 2: three hundred and sixty nine passing yards and four touchdowns. 198 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 2: So I've already seen it on film. I've already seen 199 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 2: what they can do this year in terms of covering numbers. 200 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 2: I think this line is in played by about three 201 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: and a half points. Crosses over that key number fourteen 202 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 2: and up to seventeen. I really like the Warhawks here 203 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 2: I know South Alabama has been impressive. They almost had 204 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: an outright win in Pasadena against UCLA. This is not 205 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: to say that their offense hasn't taken a major step 206 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: forward this season, but seventeen just seems a little rich 207 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 2: for my blood. So I'm gonna go with the Warhawks 208 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: in what is becoming kind of an interesting up for 209 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 2: Greb's Sunbelt West Race. What are your thoughts on Chandler 210 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 2: Rogers and kind of go in the bottom of the barrel, 211 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 2: absolute bottom of the board here with a team that's 212 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: actually pretty competitive. 213 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a weird game where you know, I 214 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 1: don't totally love it, and I probably won't, but I 215 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: don't hate it either. I definitely like getting above seventeen. 216 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: I wouldn't play it if it got under seventeen. I 217 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: do like ELM. I think they're better than people think. 218 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: But I also think South of Alabama's just like sneaking 219 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: very good. I feel they're a team we haven't talked about. 220 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: No one's talking about them, but like, I think they're 221 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: pretty good, you know, so that would make me nervous, 222 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: But I think getting the key number of seventeen is 223 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: big here. 224 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: I do think there's a bit of a difference between 225 00:10:57,960 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 2: being very good, which they are, I mean this will 226 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 2: bolt in South Alabama being very good, and also being 227 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 2: in a position where you regularly run away from teams. 228 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: That's not been a spot they've been in for really 229 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 2: the last five years, so it's kind of a different 230 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: level of expectation. How long do they play their starters? 231 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 2: Do they look ahead? I believe they have Troy the 232 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 2: following week, which is a critical game in the Sun Belt, 233 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 2: So how much of that is look at factor? How 234 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 2: much do they really keep the foot on the accelerator. 235 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna learn a lot about South Alabama 236 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 2: playing that's, you know, hunted role as opposed to the hunter. 237 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 2: What's your next one? Here? For the G five five five, 238 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: I'm gonna. 239 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,679 Speaker 1: Go back to the well fading Louisiana Tech and I'm 240 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: gonna take North Texas minus six and a half. Obviously, 241 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: the Louisiana Tech fade did not work last week, as 242 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: they did get the win over UTAP, but UTAP was 243 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: our underdog money line, so we knew that was cursed 244 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: as soon as I gave it out. But UTEP outgained 245 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: them five hundred and one to three. 246 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: Eighty. 247 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 1: They just had. You know, it's the Gavin Hardison three 248 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: interceptions and a fumble. You know, he's had that kind 249 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: of bugaboo throughout most of this season. One of the 250 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: interceptions was a pick six. One of them set up 251 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: a four play, forty seven yard touchdown drive, and the 252 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 1: other one was so far in utep zon zone that 253 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 1: it set up a field goal despite a negative six 254 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: yard drive, So you know, it was kind of a 255 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: fluky win. LA Tech I still don't think is very good. 256 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: They're outside of the top one hundred and success rate 257 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: on offense and defense, outside of top one hundred and 258 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: havoc on offensive d they're ninety eighth and rushing ninety 259 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 1: seventh pass thing. They don't do anything well, and we 260 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: know North Texas wants to run the ball. Awa Day 261 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: Oscar Adawa Oscar Adaway are both just they're so good 262 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: to day. He's averaging seven yards per carry. Adaway leads 263 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: the conference and twenty nine mistackles forced. Him and the 264 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: Day are third and fourth in this conference in yards 265 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:53,959 Speaker 1: after contact. Well, Louisiana Tech is ninety seventh and defending 266 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 1: rushing success and they rank one hundred and thirtieth in tackling. 267 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: This team can't tackle anything a day in adaway are 268 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: gonna run through them like a wet paper bag. And 269 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 1: I just think the mean Green are gonna run the 270 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: ball all day here and then everyone buy a touchdown. 271 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: So give me North Texas Land six and a half 272 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 1: against La Tech. 273 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 2: An advanced analytics alert here. I believe you're two North 274 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 2: Texas plays away from setting the podcast record for games 275 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: involving one team from G five Land. So I appreciate 276 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 2: that you continue to go back to the well. 277 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: And I didn't even mention Austin On and his twenty 278 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: nine year old ass. 279 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 2: There we go. I believe what Major League Baseball was 280 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 2: he in the Yankee system? Is that right? It was go, yeah, 281 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 2: here we go, There we go, go Yanks. All right, 282 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with two more plays here, And if 283 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,599 Speaker 2: you're gonna pay close attention to my plays here in 284 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 2: week seven, you're gonna notice I'm all underdogs going back 285 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 2: to the Sun Belt Georgia Southern plus eleven and a half. 286 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 2: And let me start it by saying this, James Madison's 287 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 2: one of the best stories going in college football. Dren 288 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: defeated the ranked in the top twenty five in their 289 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 2: transition year. Unbelievable. But do we know for sure that 290 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 2: James Madison is that good because they've played four teams 291 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 2: that absolutely stink Middle Tennessee hundred and fifteenth in Sagarin 292 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 2: Norfolk State two hundred and forty sixth, Texas State one 293 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: hundred and fortieth in Arkansas State one hundred and fourteenth. 294 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 2: They did play against Appalachian State and they played a 295 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 2: tremendous second half. So for the whole season against a 296 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 2: quality opponent, I've seen them play one really good half 297 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 2: of football. So I'm gonna say Georgia to Southern plus 298 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: eleven and a half. This is a Georgia Southern Eagle 299 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: offense that is twenty eighth and success rate ninth and 300 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 2: rushing explosiveness twenty first in passing success rate, and last 301 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: week they just got snake bit with all the interceptions, 302 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 2: four ironts. They lose the turnover battle five to two 303 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: to Georgia State. I don't know if that's something that 304 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 2: James Madison can count on to be able to cover. Essentially, 305 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 2: you're saying they're gonna win by two touchdowns or better 306 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: to feel comfortable about covering this number. I I'm just 307 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 2: going to go with the offense that I think has 308 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 2: done a masterful job in year one under Clay Helbum, 309 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: remaking themselves, going from a pseudo triple option option tenants 310 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 2: to this up tempo one of the fastest teams and 311 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 2: plays per second in the entire country. Kyle Van trees 312 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 2: As talked about reclamation projects, be someone who's turned it 313 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: around from his days in the MAC So. I like 314 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: the Eagles here catching points at home, and I think 315 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: James Madison's gonna start to feel a little bit of 316 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 2: the weight of those expectations now shifting to them with 317 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: that number next to their name on the chiron at 318 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: the bottom of the screen. What are your thoughts on 319 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 2: fading the Duke's here in the Sunbelt matchup? 320 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I honestly considered this one. I think the only 321 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: reason I didn't because I feel like I don't have 322 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: a grasp on what James Madison is fully clearly most 323 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: people don't. But I agree with you. I love Georgia Southern. 324 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: Last week I hyped them up. We took him against 325 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: Georgia State. Obviously didn't cash, but I'm not going to 326 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: overreact too much. I still think they're just as good 327 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: as I did last week, and the Georgia State team 328 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: that we were high on at the beginning of the 329 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: year just kind of finally showed up, and like you 330 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: mentioned it, it was four interceptions by Van Tries that 331 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: kind of made the difference. He still threw for over 332 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty yards. So I haven't really changed 333 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: my opinion on Georgia Southern. I still think their offense 334 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: is sick. And while I didn't play it because I 335 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: don't feel like I have a grasp on James Madison, 336 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: I definitely like the side I thought about it, and 337 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: I would play Georgia Southern if I had to. 338 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 2: It's interesting to me the game within the game for 339 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 2: James Madison and Georgia Southern is James Madison, at least 340 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 2: on paper. Their run defense has been tremendous this year. 341 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: So does the tempo that Georgia Southern implements. Does that 342 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 2: throw them off in terms of personnel groupings and they're 343 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 2: able to get some favorable looks in the box for 344 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 2: Jalen White to get some rushing yards. If they do, 345 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 2: then I think they really have a chance to be 346 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 2: balanced offensively. If it becomes a situation where they're constantly 347 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: throwing fifty attempts in this game, it could be putting 348 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: the ball in harm's way and have more interceptions. Kind 349 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 2: of repeat performance from week six. All right, I'm going 350 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 2: to turn to my last play, another underdog, and in 351 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: times of stress and chaos, you need to go with 352 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 2: the tried and true players of the G five. I'm 353 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 2: gonna go with Chris Reynolds and the Charlotte forty nine 354 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 2: ers catching twenty three and a half at UAB. Chris 355 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 2: Reynolds is home and again last three games eleven touchdowns, 356 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: two hundred ninety seven yards per game. And on the 357 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 2: other side of the thing, Charlotte's defense is so bad 358 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 2: at stopping the run that offensive coordinators oppose. Offense coordinators 359 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 2: have just said, why even throw the ball at all? 360 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 2: In terms of teams in the country, they're facing the 361 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty eighth worst run defense that's Charlotte, 362 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 2: and then top five usage by their opponents. So they 363 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 2: just turn around, hand the ball of their running back 364 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 2: and just collect their touchdowns. What I think that's going 365 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 2: to mean in this game is not as many chunk 366 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 2: plays for UAB. I think they're going to score thirty 367 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 2: forty points, certainly into the forties in this game. But 368 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 2: Charlotte catching twenty three and a half, I know that 369 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 2: they I would say a top twenty G five passing attack, 370 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 2: maybe top ten with Chris Reynolds. Garbage time, garbage, garbage time. 371 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 2: I'm just seeing this back door being left open for 372 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I'm going to go with a 373 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 2: big total for a team that likes to win with 374 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 2: defense and running the ball. North of three touchdowns seems 375 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 2: generous to me, so I'm going to go there. I 376 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 2: know we nailed UAB last week and they absolutely drilled 377 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee, but that was the team that did not 378 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,640 Speaker 2: have the same quarterback play. So what are your thoughts 379 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: on the Blazers potentially taking the foot off the accelerator 380 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. 381 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, if there's ever a team that will leave the 382 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: back door open can run through it at the blank 383 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: of an eye, it's Charlotte, And it's one of those 384 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: This is one of those games where I think the 385 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 1: back door will be open all game, and I think 386 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: it'll be scary because you would be will probably be 387 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: up like twenty one to three at the end of 388 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: the first quarter and then you're sweating, but Charlotte's just 389 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 1: gonna keep chugging along. The only thing that would make 390 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: me nervous about this play is the very as we've seen, 391 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: real possibility that Chris REYNALLDS gets hurt in the first 392 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 1: half and then you're and then the door is slammed shut. 393 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: But as long as Reynolds stays healthy, we've seen it, 394 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: I agree the door will be open the whole game. 395 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: As far as that offense goes, you know, you're never 396 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: gonna have to worry about them not being able to 397 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: kind of claw their way back into a game. 398 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 2: Starting quarterbacks getting hurt. Gonna knock on wood on that one. 399 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 2: After losing Doug Brumfield last week for UNLV, that was 400 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 2: that was tragic. I think they're gonna be in trouble 401 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 2: against air Force, which it looks like it's going to 402 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 2: be Cameron Friol again. 403 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: Why is it not Harrison Bailey. I don't understand why 404 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: they're not playing Harrison Bailey at this point. 405 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: It is a mystery. Maybe he's got some injury, maybe 406 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 2: some eligibility issues, but you would think just from a 407 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 2: pure athleticism standpoint that they'd roll the dice with him, 408 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 2: because offensively, they totally lost without Brumpfield last week against 409 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 2: San Jose State. 410 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,880 Speaker 4: All right, before we continue, as a reminder, the Big 411 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 4: Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM. 412 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 4: So kick off the new pro football season with the 413 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 4: King of sports Books. Sign up with BETMGM using bonus 414 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 4: code Action two hundred, and your first wager is risk 415 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 4: free up to one thousand dollars. 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In New York, call our 433 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 3: text the Tennessee Redline at eight hundred and eight nine 434 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: nine seven eight nine or one eighty eight seven seven 435 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 3: seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. 436 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 4: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your 437 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 4: gambling or. 438 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 3: Someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one 439 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 3: eight sixty six five three one two six zero zero 440 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 3: to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting 441 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,719 Speaker 3: is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, in Utah and other 442 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 3: states were prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada and 443 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 3: New York. 444 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: All right, now we turn to our money line underdog 445 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 2: parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. We say tongue 446 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 2: in cheek here, I'm gonna go with the Golden Flashes. 447 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: This is my last time, last time, Dan Silorton, I've 448 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 2: been banking on in the last two weeks one of 449 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 2: the most dynamic offenses, at least in some of the metros, 450 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: because in the entire country had let me down. But 451 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 2: they're plus two to sixty on the money line traveling 452 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 2: to Toledo, and it's the same script. We'll just see 453 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: if it plays out any better for me. Their twentieth 454 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 2: in explosiveness in the entire country. When they get the 455 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 2: running game going, it's super dynamic between Colin Slee and 456 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 2: Mark west Cooper, and they know they've been really good 457 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: at it and popped even against some of the better 458 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 2: teams they played in the non conference schedule. But they're 459 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 2: one hundred and third in turnover margin, and I think 460 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: that's what's hiding their value. Can they finally be on 461 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 2: the right side of the turnover battle in this game 462 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 2: Toledo on the other side. I will say this, beyond 463 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: my blind faith in the Golden Flash offense and my 464 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 2: undying love for this program, Toledo doesn't generate any pass 465 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 2: rush one hundred and eighth and Sacrate and their ninety 466 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 2: six and havoc so Slee, who's fumbled the ball all 467 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 2: over the place. It's either big plays in the passing 468 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 2: game or on the ground or fumbles. Those are the 469 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 2: three options. Having the opportunity and the time to operate 470 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 2: in the pocket. I think it gives them a shot 471 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 2: to not get off to a slow start for the 472 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 2: third straight game. And if they can get him up 473 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 2: to know his top level, he's eighty four point five 474 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,479 Speaker 2: in terms of his Pro Football Focus passing grade. They 475 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 2: just got to finish drives when they crossed the opponent's 476 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 2: forty yard line. They're averaging three point six to two 477 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 2: points per opportunity. That's ninety first nationally. That stinks. They 478 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 2: got to get that right. I'm a believer in Sean 479 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 2: Lewis and Sowder and this offensive staff to get it done. 480 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 2: And I think at this point it opened at seven, 481 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 2: I think it's creeped up to nine plus two to sixty. 482 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 2: Anything north of two twenty five. I think there's too 483 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 2: much value in one of the best offenses in the 484 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 2: mac fingers crossed that they keep the ball in their 485 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 2: hands don't turn the ball over, and if they do 486 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 2: win the turnover battle, going to go on record here 487 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 2: they're gonna upset the Rockets and really throw a monkey 488 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 2: wrench into the mac race. Both in the East and 489 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 2: the West. You can take some pot shots on me. 490 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: I think I've earned it at this point. 491 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 1: Just super high on Toledo. You know, Toledo's fourteenth in 492 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 1: the country at defending the rush, and that's what Keenn 493 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,959 Speaker 1: State wants to do when you even measured it. When 494 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: they're at their best, they're running the football. I don't 495 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: think they're gonna be able to do that against this 496 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: Rocket defense. And when they're passing it, you know they 497 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: turn the ball and toil he has got a dude 498 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 1: that just picked off four passes in one game. If 499 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,239 Speaker 1: you want to experience me to lay nine, I can 500 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: maybe be considered to do that. But as far as 501 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: money line, I just I don't think Ken State's tamala 502 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: to run the ball on this Toledo defense, and that's 503 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: going to force them to throw and they have non 504 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 1: success in doing that. So I don't like it, but hey, 505 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: we need a win, so I hope you're right. 506 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 2: Well, I will say this, I think you're even under 507 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 2: selling how good the Toledo run defense is because their 508 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 2: stats are thrown off by the fact that you have 509 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 2: seventy seven points to Ohio State. So that has really 510 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 2: kind of shifted the whole statistical narrative on them this season. 511 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 2: I will say this, when Kent throws the football, they 512 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: can be explosive, and I do think they have the 513 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 2: top wide receiver duo in the MAC. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. 514 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 2: Fingers crossed to get some turnover luck in this game. 515 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,120 Speaker 2: I think I'm due at this point, you know, to 516 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 2: check in on that Miami game last week. By the 517 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,959 Speaker 2: time I updated the Action app and it was seventeen 518 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 2: nothing already. They end up playing a great game after that, 519 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 2: they just cannot dig a hole, particularly to the cream 520 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 2: of the crop in the MAC. Who are you pairing 521 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 2: up for underdog parlay a week seven. 522 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: And this was kind of a tough week. I'm going 523 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: with Rice plus one fifty five at FAU. I think 524 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: Rice is just a lot better than I thought they'd be. 525 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: They're three and two with wins over you know, McNee State, 526 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: but they have upset wins over Louisiana and uab as 527 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,239 Speaker 1: double digit underdogs. So they they've already had you know, 528 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: if they were on the money line underdog parlay, you 529 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: know twice already we have cash. And then they lost 530 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: by seven to a Houston team as seventeen and a 531 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 1: half point dogs, and they finished even in yardage in 532 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: that game. So yeah, it's easy to point and say, Okay, 533 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: Houston's obvios not as good as we thought, Louisiana is 534 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: not as good as we thought. By the end of 535 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 1: the day, it was still good. Good wins over you know, 536 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: teams that were favorite to win by ten. Wiley Green 537 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: started the year as their quarterback, but just like last year, 538 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 1: it gets hurt almost immediately. TJ meecmhon comes in, and 539 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: he's actually been pretty good. He's averaged two hundred and 540 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: fifty yards per game four starts, got nine touchdowns, four picks. 541 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: Luke McCaffrey, who they shifted from quarterback to receiver, has 542 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: surprisingly been pretty good at receivers for them. He's everything 543 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: over seventy yards per game, hit over one hundred yards 544 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: against Louisiana and Houston. Rice is one of those teams 545 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:11,239 Speaker 1: where they're not particularly great at anything, but they've just 546 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: they've been league average in almost every category, which is 547 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: better than most people expected. You know, it sounds weird 548 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: to brag about Rice ranking in the fifties and almost 549 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: you know, success rates and stuff like that, but I 550 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 1: think that's a lot better than we would have pegged 551 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: them at the end of the year. Meanwhile, FAU has 552 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: been super disappointing. They're just two and four, with wins 553 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: over Charlotte week one and then Southeast Louisiana. They've lost 554 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 1: a four straight FBS teams. They just got blown out 555 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: by North Texas. This defense is horrible. They're outside of 556 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: the top one hundred and success rate preventing finishing drives. 557 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,120 Speaker 1: They're especially bad against the past. They've alled fourteen touchdowns 558 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,160 Speaker 1: to the air. They've allowed teams to complete sixty seven 559 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: percent of their passes. That's one hundred and sixteenth in 560 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: the nation. So you know, actually, network power ratings actually 561 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: have Rice as a better team on a neutral field. 562 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: The actually are higher up in the power ratings. So 563 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 1: when you're picking a money line underdog, you know, Rice 564 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 1: is three and one against spreads, the underdog with two 565 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: outright victories. So I kind of like the idea of 566 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 1: having a team that is better than we expected, going 567 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: up against a team that is worse than we expected. 568 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: So I kind of like the upside here with Rice 569 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 1: who's on the upswing, versus Fau, who I think is 570 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: on the downswing, especially when your factor and you know 571 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 1: preseason expectations and where they rank in the Power ratings 572 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 1: and stuff like that, where I'll think the team that's 573 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 1: kind of outperformed what we expected. 574 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 2: Here, we won't drag our feet talking out the underdog 575 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 2: moneyline parlay until we actually win one. So we're gonna 576 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 2: move on to what's quickly becoming the most profitable segment, 577 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 2: which is what was on the cutting room floor. What 578 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 2: are your bonus picks. I'll get it started here with 579 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 2: a game that is so far down the board, I 580 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if you have to stream it on 581 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 2: Stadium or Facebook Live. Of course, referring to the Rio 582 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 2: Granz rivalry between New Mexico and New Mexico State, a 583 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 2: little fun nugget here. This game will be broadcast in 584 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 2: the Navajo language, so it may as well be the 585 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 2: wind Talker rivalry in this one. I think that between 586 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 2: these two teams, New Mexico should be laying double digits 587 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 2: they're only six nap point favorite. They're four and two 588 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 2: against the spread this year. And we talked in August 589 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 2: about the Mountain West Conference and there was a lot 590 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 2: of teams on our hit list that we couldn't wait 591 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 2: to fade. We were talking Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming. New Mexico 592 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 2: is certainly chief among them. Mexico has been secretly feisty. 593 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 2: New Mexico State is still the kind of mismatched, you know, 594 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 2: from a roster perspective team where they don't have a 595 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: true identity. They're playing musical chairs a quarterback. I'm going 596 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 2: to go with New Mexico here in the Rio Grande 597 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 2: rivalry and not overthink it. I was surprised to see 598 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 2: that number in the single digits, and I'll take advantage 599 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 2: of below the key number of seven. How about you 600 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 2: for a bonus pick here? I know you were deep 601 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 2: in New England, you know, looking at the foliage last week? 602 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 2: What should pick this week? 603 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 1: You know in New England is Yukon Lokia Wagon wouldn't 604 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 1: hate taking the points with them against Ball State. As 605 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: I mentioned, thought about Western Kentucky against Middle Tennessee filling 606 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,400 Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee's bad people are just remembering that to beat Miami. 607 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 1: Were your thoughts on ECU minus four and a half 608 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 1: against Memphis? You know, Memphis obviously got that over win 609 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: for US against Houston, but that was such a brutal 610 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: loss that really they just they completely blew that game. 611 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: And I still like this Pirates team. They've kind of 612 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: lost a little bit of their running game, but we 613 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: still like holding Ayler's and it just comes down it's 614 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: one of those things where if if Ailers protects the 615 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: football or they'll lose, you know what I mean, Like 616 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: ec is either gonna win by you know ten, or 617 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: lose this game. So ec minus four and a half 618 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,640 Speaker 1: I kind of like maybe even throw a little money 619 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 1: Memphis my line to hedge it, because that's just how 620 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 1: easy you kind of is. But I like getting the 621 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 1: Pirates at home here at four and a half, so 622 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 1: that that one was kind of my last one off 623 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: the card. 624 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 2: How about a middle so big you could drive a macstructure. 625 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 2: Why don't you go with Memphis money line and ECU 626 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 2: alternate minus ten because either we're getting the you know, 627 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 2: all star holding the Ailers throwing for five touchdowns, or 628 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 2: he'll turn it over four times and they'll lose that, right. 629 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 2: I think that's the right way to think about that game. 630 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 2: I mean, there's he's Doctor Jacko and mister Hyde every 631 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 2: single time for the Pirates, So I don't know, I 632 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 2: think that's the way to think about it. 633 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, AC seven and then also Memphis Money Life that 634 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 1: that might be the play. 635 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: Heads up to our listeners out there. Every single weekday 636 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 2: throughout the ends of the World Series, we're going to 637 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 2: have playoff baseball action for you, covering it all through 638 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: our baseball betting podcast, Payoff Pitch. So if you want 639 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 2: some baseball action, check out the Payoff Pitch podcast, presented 640 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 2: by our friends at BETMGM. And now a quick recap 641 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 2: of all of our picks here in terms of our 642 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 2: best bets, I like Old Dominion catching thirteen against Coastal 643 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 2: Carolina An l o Is on Eastern Michigan laying two 644 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 2: and a half for our G five high five. I 645 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 2: like Louisiana Monroe plus seventeen ionl o Is on North 646 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 2: Texas laying six and a half and over in the 647 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: old Minue Coastal Carolina game over fifty six, and then 648 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 2: finally to round out our G five High five round 649 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 2: Robin I like Georgia Southern catching eleven and a half 650 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,959 Speaker 2: at home against James Madison and Charlotte catching twenty three 651 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 2: and a half. Traveling to UAB for our underdog money 652 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 2: line parlay. We're teaming up Kent State plus two sixty 653 00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 2: and Rice plus one fifty five. This money line dog 654 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 2: parlay pays out plus a twenty all right for Mike, 655 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 2: I Andelo on myke calvaries. This has been the group 656 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 2: of five deep dive under the Big Bets on Campus 657 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 2: podcast banner presented by BETTMGM. Reminder to our listeners that 658 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 2: you can check out Colin and Stucky on Thursday, giving 659 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 2: you the full rundown of the entire FBS slate top 660 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 2: to bottom, no stone left unturned, and on Saturday morning, 661 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 2: catch Colin, Stucky and Brett McMurphy as they discuss line movements, action, injuries, coaching, intrigue, 662 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 2: everything to get you positioned for profitable Saturday. Thanks so 663 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 2: much in best of bluck this weekend