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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We have got a lot to talk about at the

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Speaker 2: threshold of the weekend. Here we are. Votes will happen Saturday,

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Speaker 2: we're told. And the reason why we can tell you

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Speaker 2: that now is because an important vote just occurred, the

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Speaker 2: magic number three sixteen to ninety four. They got the

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Speaker 2: rule passed. And around here that's news lately. Ask Speaker

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, who has seen seven rules fail on the floor,

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Speaker 2: what happened last night in the Rules committee. This is procedural,

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Speaker 2: I get it. We're walking out. This is the kind

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Speaker 2: of stuff. This is how the sausage is made. And

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Speaker 2: you may not want to look because it's not pretty.

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Speaker 2: But last night in the Rules Committee, it took Democrats

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Speaker 2: to pass the framework for the bills to be voted upon.

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Speaker 2: The Rules Committee, known affectionately as the Speaker's Committee, this

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Speaker 2: is supposed to be a rubber stamp for the Speaker

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Speaker 2: and three Republicans said hell no. So it took Democrats

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Speaker 2: to come in here and get this done. And once

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Speaker 2: again today look at the number three sixteen ninety four Democrats.

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Speaker 2: This might not play well for Mike Johnson when it

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Speaker 2: comes to this whole motion to vacate matter. But let's

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Speaker 2: get to the hill right now. Billy House has been

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Speaker 2: watching all this unfold before his eyes, remembering that the

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Speaker 2: Supplemental Emergency funding Bill passed the Senate back in February.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine has been waiting for that long, and so is

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Speaker 2: Israel for that matter. Billy House with us right now. Billy,

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Speaker 2: we're looking at a working weekend, and I guess the

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Speaker 2: glide path is set.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: Are these all going to pass based on the numbers

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Speaker 2: we saw today?

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Speaker 3: Well, it looks that way. This test vote today was

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Speaker 3: very strong, but you're correct. Actually more Democrats one hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixty five voted in favor of Johnson's Package Foreign

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Speaker 3: eight package than his own Republicans only one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty one of them did, so that'll probably fall suit

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Speaker 3: tomorrow late afternoon. In the final vote in the House.

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Speaker 2: Remarkable comments from members on both sides with regard to

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Speaker 2: Speaker Mike Johnson and what he has just accomplished or not,

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Speaker 2: depending on.

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Speaker 1: Who you ask.

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Speaker 2: Tom Massey, who's signed on to this Republican from Kentucky

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Speaker 2: the motion to vacate with Marjorie Taylor Green, He writes,

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Speaker 2: the US House is now officially in an alternate universe

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Speaker 2: where the speaker shares procedural power with Democrats. Is he

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Speaker 2: wrong about that, Billy?

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Speaker 3: He's not wrong about that. But what he's not really

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Speaker 3: saying is that the narrow majority the Republicans have demand

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Speaker 3: that no matter whose speaker, they've already run through one

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Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy, and now the same things are or challenges

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Speaker 3: are being hit by a hit on Johnson, Mike Johnson

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Speaker 3: his successor. So yeah, it's a new universe, but it's

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Speaker 3: not a universe either. These speakers really have control over

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Speaker 3: They just happened to preside over it.

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Speaker 4: Mm hmm.

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Speaker 2: We heard from Speaker Mike Johnson a little bit earlier today.

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Speaker 2: Listen to the language that he used in trying to

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Speaker 2: frame the differences between this legislation and that which passed

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Speaker 2: the Senate. The House could have taken that up, brought

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Speaker 2: it to the floor. We were told that it would

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Speaker 2: pass but he chose not to because of opposition from

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Speaker 2: conservative Republicans, namely members of the Freedom CAUs who aren't

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Speaker 2: probably going to vote for this thing anyway. Here's Speaker

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson from earlier today.

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Speaker 5: It's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans

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Speaker 5: were in charge of both the houses in it in

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Speaker 5: the White House. This is the best possible product that

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Speaker 5: we can get under these circumstances to take care of

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Speaker 5: these really important obligations.

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Speaker 2: He's making the case here if you couldn't understand what

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Speaker 2: he was saying, I know it's noisy and he's surrounded

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Speaker 2: by marble. Not the legislation that we would have written

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Speaker 2: if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate,

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Speaker 2: the White House. Billy, he's right about that. Mike Johnson

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Speaker 2: seems to be the one person who knows he cannot

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Speaker 2: pass this with his own conference.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's correct, But what he's saying there is that

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Speaker 3: they were able to put in such things as a

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Speaker 3: loane concept in the funding for Ukraine or sanctions on

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Speaker 3: Russia and Iran. In this process. He's put together that

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Speaker 3: some different things than what would have been in the

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Speaker 3: Senate bill still nobody. Ukraine has waited and waited, and

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Speaker 3: there's been a lot of the world has waited for

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Speaker 3: the US to either act or not act on this

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Speaker 3: as the Houses kind of rolled around trying to figure

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Speaker 3: out what it was going to do.

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Speaker 2: What should we know about the motion to vacate then, Billy,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure that's the talk on the hill. If these

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Speaker 2: all passed tomorrow, they get stitched together, it goes to

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Speaker 2: the Senate. What does Marjorie Taylor Green do? She said,

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Speaker 2: you vote on Ukraine, you bring it to the floor,

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Speaker 2: and you're fired. But we haven't seen that happen.

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Speaker 3: Yet, right, and we're all aways. We're on her this afternoon,

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Speaker 3: I mean this morning when this vote was taking place.

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Speaker 3: But she left that House floor and kind of a huff,

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Speaker 3: saying she wasn't going to talk to anybody. Now. She

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Speaker 3: could trigger that motion and force a vote on the

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Speaker 3: House floor on Mike Johnson's future, but he could also

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Speaker 3: first call for a vote to table it. And so

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Speaker 3: what we saw today with the Democratic help on this

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Speaker 3: package of bills, some people are saying, and some Democrats

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Speaker 3: are saying, they're going to help rescue Mike Johnson on

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Speaker 3: that that'll help him obviously, but in the long run,

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Speaker 3: what's a speaker or Republican speaker's future if it has

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Speaker 3: to if he has to rely on Democrats to keep

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Speaker 3: him speaker.

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Speaker 2: A working weekend, Billy, I wish you luck. We're going

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Speaker 2: to be watching for your reporting, of course on the

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Speaker 2: terminal and online. Billy House congress reporter here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: He is part of the woodwork up there, and he

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Speaker 2: knows what he's talking about. We'll stick with Billy and

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Speaker 2: the rest of our congressional team as we advance to

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Speaker 2: these votes tomorrow. The Senate would then, of course take

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Speaker 2: that house build A president's already said I'll sign it

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Speaker 2: if he gets it. We could be in a different

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Speaker 2: world come Monday. And after what happened last night, you

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Speaker 2: do have this urgency. A lot of people pointed to

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Speaker 2: the attack from Iran against Israel for relighting the fires

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill to get this thing moving a lot

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Speaker 2: more quickly, and Israel has now responded. You probably got

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Speaker 2: the alerts from Bloomberg last night against Iran following the

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Speaker 2: drone and missile attack last weekend. State TV in Iran

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Speaker 2: says military and nuclear facilities safe. They're showing pictures of

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Speaker 2: the city. People are driving through intersections like it's any

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Speaker 2: whole day. But that might have been the point here.

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Speaker 2: There was a lot of worry, of course, about Israel overreaching,

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Speaker 2: and we had a lot of questions as we asked

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Speaker 2: General Mackenzie here yesterday about what would be a proportionate response.

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Speaker 2: That's where Mick mulroy comes in. He's co founder of

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Speaker 2: the Lobo Institute, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense

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Speaker 2: for the Middle East with US now live on Bloomberg. Mick,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Israel had a couple of different audiences with this response.

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Speaker 2: What did it accomplish last night?

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Speaker 6: So Joe, I think they wanted to accomplish a couple

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Speaker 6: different things. So the first was they couldn't let this

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Speaker 6: unprecedented attack on them by Iran just go unanswered, or

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Speaker 6: they would have set a different paradigm in the Middle

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Speaker 6: East and one that they didn't find acceptable. The second,

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Speaker 6: I think they really wanted to show that if they

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Speaker 6: wanted to, they could strike deep into the heart of

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Speaker 6: Iran in the location where they both have an air

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Speaker 6: base and a part of their nuclear facilities complexes, if

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Speaker 6: you will, that they use to develop the uranium necessary

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Speaker 6: to eventually make a bomb. If that was where they're going,

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Speaker 6: and that's where many people think they are, but they

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Speaker 6: did so in such a limited manner that it was

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Speaker 6: more symbolic but important symbol rather than really made to

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Speaker 6: cause destruction.

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Speaker 2: Appears interesting. Ian Bremmer tweeted earlier that this was in

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Speaker 2: fact a de escalatory move, and I wonder if you

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Speaker 2: agree with that. Having been so precise and so careful

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Speaker 2: not to overreach, did Israel just end this for now?

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Speaker 6: Yes, I agree with that. I think this was certainly

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Speaker 6: intended to be a de escalatory move, where again it

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Speaker 6: was limited large at knabolic, but it did show essentially

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Speaker 6: that Iran couldn't even stop this. I mean, they're probably

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Speaker 6: special type of munitions that are very difficult to detect,

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Speaker 6: but obviously weren't detected until they were well into her

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Speaker 6: On and it struck near the target. We haven't seen

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Speaker 6: a battle damage assessment, but essentially I do think it

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Speaker 6: was very minimal damage, and I do think the intent

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Speaker 6: along with not talking about it, except for one notable exception,

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Speaker 6: the Israeli cabinet has said nothing about it, so they

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Speaker 6: don't want to poke anybody in the eye with the

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Speaker 6: idea that this could contain this confrontation and essentially start

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Speaker 6: moving in the other direction, which is de escalatory and

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Speaker 6: likely back into the shadow shadows of where this war

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Speaker 6: has been fought for the last several decades.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating.

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Speaker 2: Well, it sounds to me like you think they struck

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Speaker 2: the right balance here if de escalating was in fact

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Speaker 2: the goal. Reports Mike say that the US did get

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Speaker 2: a heads up here on this move, but did not

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Speaker 2: green light it. It's an important distinction. What do you

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Speaker 2: make of that?

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Speaker 6: So, Jerrold, this is something that the US was concerned

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Speaker 6: about because of the strike in Damascus. They didn't believe

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Speaker 6: they got a heads up, which is unusual, I have

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Speaker 6: to say, having been in roles and been involved in

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Speaker 6: notifications when it comes to this, usually Israel does give

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Speaker 6: us a heads up. This time they obviously did too,

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Speaker 6: probably because they had issues because they did not in

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Speaker 6: the strike and Damascus that killed those senior I r

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Speaker 6: GC CUDS Force generals, But this time they did. I

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Speaker 6: don't think they were asking for permission, but I do

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Speaker 6: think there was an ongoing discussion with Israel star starting

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Speaker 6: higher up the escalation ladder. If you will, when it

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Speaker 6: came to their original course of action and then progressively

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Speaker 6: going down in the last week and to the point

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Speaker 6: where they got to this. The United States isn't going

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Speaker 6: to green light it. But I do think they felt

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Speaker 6: that this was something that the United States would accept

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Speaker 6: more and more importantly, would accept it because did it

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Speaker 6: looks like de escalate the situation where Iran doesn't look

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Speaker 6: like they're going to retaliate.

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Speaker 2: We're spending time with mc mulroy of the Lobo Institute.

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Speaker 2: The area that was targeted here, Mick, Isfahan was significant

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Speaker 2: and what you said is important here. While we may

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Speaker 2: not be talking about massive destruction, they wanted to prove

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Speaker 2: that they could reach deep into Iran without being intercepted,

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Speaker 2: certainly not the way Iranians. Iran's attack was. This is

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Speaker 2: home to Iran's nuclear program. What kind of a wake

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Speaker 2: up call is that? For Tehran.

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Speaker 6: Joe, That is the wake up call. So Isfahan is

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Speaker 6: the third largest city in Iran, It's deep in the

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Speaker 6: middle of it. It has two facilities, one in Isfahan

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Speaker 6: and then another in the Tons, which is only I

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Speaker 6: think seventy kilometers from there. That's a very difficult target,

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Speaker 6: but it does show that they could get these munitions

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Speaker 6: into this location without being intercepted, either in the air

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Speaker 6: near it or actually striking the ground. And we don't

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Speaker 6: know and might not find out, but it does certainly

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Speaker 6: show that Israel has the capacity to strike in Iran

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Speaker 6: when it needs to, even when it's expected, because a

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Speaker 6: lot of I mean, this has been built up and

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Speaker 6: people expected, and I'm sure that the Iranian era and

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Speaker 6: missile defense were on high alarth right, So even when

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Speaker 6: it's telegraphed, they still were able to do it. But

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Speaker 6: they did it in a way that we think didn't

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Speaker 6: cause much damage. And so I think they did strike

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Speaker 6: the right balance here, and I think the US, if

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Speaker 6: they would comment, would agree that this is about the

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Speaker 6: best scenario to de escalate the situation.

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Speaker 2: McK what did you make of the attack by Iran

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Speaker 2: a week ago? A lot of people said this thing

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Speaker 2: was made to be intercepted, that they telegraphed for a

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Speaker 2: week they were coming, they gave Israel hours notice, and

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Speaker 2: of course we know that ninety nine percent of the

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Speaker 2: drones and missiles were in fact knocked down. Was that

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Speaker 2: the aim by Iran are both of these countries tiptoeing

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Speaker 2: around each other.

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Speaker 6: I think you could make that argument, yes, because of

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Speaker 6: the delay, and the delay actually allowed the US military

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Speaker 6: to move assets in the region to intercept the missiles.

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Speaker 6: I mean, if you really wanted to cause a lot

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Speaker 6: of destructions, you would have likely gone immediately. That said,

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Speaker 6: it was so much, so many, so you know, ballistic missiles,

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Speaker 6: cruise missiles, and drones three hundred and twenty total that

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Speaker 6: were sequenced in my opinion to basically end up in

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Speaker 6: Israel at the same time. So yes, they launched a

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Speaker 6: slow moving she needs first, but then they started getting

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Speaker 6: caught up with by the ballistic cruise missiles and their

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Speaker 6: ballistic missiles right, so they had really had to rely

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Speaker 6: on the capability of Israel to intercept that many along

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Speaker 6: with the United States and UK and our ARA partners.

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Speaker 6: That was a big risk. I mean, there could have

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Speaker 6: been things that had gone wrong and it could have

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Speaker 6: caused catastrophic damage. But I do think it's fair to

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Speaker 6: say that that Iron wanted time for this to happen,

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Speaker 6: but they did make They didn't send a pretty big

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Speaker 6: risk or put out a pretty big risk that all

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Speaker 6: these will be intercepted. But it's also important they launched

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Speaker 6: a lot, and they were not successful. So I know

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Speaker 6: they tried to couch it as some kind of victory,

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Speaker 6: but from the military perspective, it looks like even with

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Speaker 6: all their capabilities they launched, they had zero effect on target,

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Speaker 6: essentially zero.

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Speaker 2: Gosh, that's for sure. That's also I just wonder, it's

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Speaker 2: super important, Mick. I wonder how much we learned about

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Speaker 2: our own capability. Even if Uran slowed this down so

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Speaker 2: we could knock some of these down, surely they didn't

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Speaker 2: bet we could get ninety nine percent of them. And

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Speaker 2: while we've had a lot of wargames to show our abilities,

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Speaker 2: to actually do this in the field, in the wild

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Speaker 2: and pull it off in reality is a different matter.

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Speaker 2: Mick mulroy, great to see you. Thank you for coming

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Speaker 2: to talk to us again on Bloomberg. He's co founder

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Speaker 2: of the Lobo Institute, and he knows what he's talking about,

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Speaker 2: having served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the

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Speaker 2: Middle East. Great insights today as well from Billy House.

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Speaker 2: The bills are moving on Capitol Hill, and it sounds

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Speaker 2: like things might be calming down at least for a

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Speaker 2: moment in Israel and in Iran, as they try to

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Speaker 2: map out their next moves. We have much more ahead

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Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. Stay with us on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Round Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 7: First, the G seven condemned the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel.

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Speaker 7: Unprecedented in scope and scale, scope because it was a

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Speaker 7: direct attack on Israel from Iran, scale because it involved

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Speaker 7: more than three hundred communitions, including ballistic missiles. We're committed

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Speaker 7: to Israel security. We're also committed to de escalating, to

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Speaker 7: trying to bring this at tension to a close.

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Speaker 8: That was Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln speaking at the

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Speaker 8: G seven alongside many other US allied countries, including some

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Speaker 8: from Europe, and so we want to get more perspective

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Speaker 8: now from the European Commission. Valdis Danbrofsky's is joining us

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Speaker 8: now here in our Washington, d C studio on Bloomberg

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Speaker 8: Television and Radio. He is the European Commission Executive Vice

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Speaker 8: President for an Economy that works for people, Sir, thank

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Speaker 8: you so much for being here with us today. If

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Speaker 8: we could first begin give the developments overnight in the

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Speaker 8: Middle East, knowing that you primarily look at the economy,

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Speaker 8: how concerned are you about possible escalation from here and

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Speaker 8: the impact that that could have on energy prices, which

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Speaker 8: we know has been highly problematic for the European economy

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Speaker 8: in years past.

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, we see that the world economy

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Speaker 4: is proving to be resilient despite a difficult situation and

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Speaker 4: different geopolitical tensions and conflicts we are currently experiencing. And

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Speaker 4: also the impact on energy prices so far has been

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Speaker 4: quite limited. Obviously, we need to monitor closely all of

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Speaker 4: those developments, but the assessment is that the risks to

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Speaker 4: the economic outlook are now broadly balanced.

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Speaker 2: You've been in Washington here meeting with lawmakers about the

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Speaker 2: big story that we've been talking about here for months,

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Speaker 2: mister Executive Vice President, and just today we saw an

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Speaker 2: important procedural vote pass for funding for Ukraine, Israel in

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Speaker 2: the Indo pak region. You're obviously very concerned about funding

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine. What did you tell lawmakers when you met

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Speaker 2: with Well.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, that was my main message in the meetings on

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Speaker 4: the Hill, and basically I was emphasizing that from the

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Speaker 4: EU side, we are doing a lot to provide financial

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Speaker 4: but also military and other kind of support to Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: So far we have provided support of around one hundred

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Speaker 4: billion euros. We know how fifty billion euros Ukraine facility

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Speaker 4: for the forty years twenty twenty four to twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 4: We're already disbursing from this facility. So it's important that

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Speaker 4: also other international donors and first and foremost US come

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Speaker 4: also with their contribution. And therefore I very much look

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Speaker 4: forward for tomorrow's votes and hope this Ukraine support is

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Speaker 4: being approved because what we see that in the last months,

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Speaker 4: actually the situation in Ukraine is deteriorating for the lack

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Speaker 4: especially of military support. We see it both at the

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Speaker 4: front line and we see it with the daily shellings

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Speaker 4: of Ukrainian cities, residential areas, critical infrastructure. So this support

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Speaker 4: is very much needed. I would say the collective West

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Speaker 4: has all the necessary resources to stop Russian not to

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Speaker 4: allow this shelling to take a place, and so hopefully

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Speaker 4: this is a period of undecision and bittering is coming

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Speaker 4: to the end, and we will be able to come

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Speaker 4: with a strong and firm response to to Russia and

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Speaker 4: also to other autocrats around the world, because it's also

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Speaker 4: not only about Ukraine, it's about our collective security.

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Speaker 8: Well, you outline there the amount that Europe already has

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Speaker 8: contributed to the Ukrainian cause. It's worth pointing out that

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Speaker 8: there is at least a faction of thought here in

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Speaker 8: the United States that thinks Europe is not caring as

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Speaker 8: much weight as it should be. One of them is

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Speaker 8: the presumptive Republican nominee. Former President Donald Trump posted on

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Speaker 8: social media yesterday effectively to summarize his words, saying that

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Speaker 8: Ukrainian survival is more important to Europe than it is

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Speaker 8: to the US. So why is Europe not giving more

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Speaker 8: money to help Ukraine? Why can't it equalize or match

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Speaker 8: the money? This is a quote put in by the

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Speaker 8: United States of America. Is there more that Europe could

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Speaker 8: be doing, sir? I wonder what your response would be

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Speaker 8: to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, facts has never been the strong

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Speaker 4: side of Donald Trump, and it's also unfortunately this time

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Speaker 4: is the case. So that's why I'm emphasizing so much

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Speaker 4: as a financial aid EU has already provided, which is

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Speaker 4: one hundred billion euros in all kinds of support Ukraine facility,

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Speaker 4: which is already in place of fifty billion euros. So

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Speaker 4: the fact is that EU is the largest donor to Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: and we are willing to continue this way because after all,

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Speaker 4: indeed it's a war on Ukrainian on European continent, But

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Speaker 4: of course it also requires solidarity from a broader democratic world,

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Speaker 4: and with EU and US being strategic allies, US support

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Speaker 4: is not only financially very important, but also as a

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Speaker 4: signal of a West being united against this Russian aggression.

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Speaker 2: Chryst Donald Trump's view reflects the view of some Republican

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Speaker 2: members in the House who are voting against this package.

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Speaker 2: I wonder when you met with lawmakers this week, what

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Speaker 2: was your reception. Did you hear pushback, did you hear

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Speaker 2: criticism or were you well received with the lawmakers you met?

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Speaker 4: Well? I would say youse were definitely worrying on this topic.

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Speaker 4: But my point was really to make the case why

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Speaker 4: it's important not only for Ukraine but for entire global

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Speaker 4: security architecture, because what we are seeing that also other

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Speaker 4: autocrats are seeing if the West is not even able

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Speaker 4: to contain Russia, so then also having ideas and the

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Speaker 4: recent Iran attack against Israel is just another manifestation of

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Speaker 4: this nine twenty few. It's important to stay firm and determined.

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Speaker 4: Another one, indeed, to make this point on the EU's

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Speaker 4: contribution so far, to really show that EU is doing

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Speaker 4: a lot of EU is actually doing more than the

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Speaker 4: United States. We're happy to continue to do so, but

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Speaker 4: everyone has to contribute well.

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Speaker 8: Of course, your conversations here in Washington have not just

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Speaker 8: been limited to lawmakers. You are also here while the

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Speaker 8: IMF World Bank meetings are underway, and I wonder from

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Speaker 8: an economic lens, what you're hearing in the messaging and

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Speaker 8: what message you are providing about the state of the

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Speaker 8: European economy right now. Knowing that for now policy is

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Speaker 8: still tight, there's questions around when will ease and where

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Speaker 8: the economy will be depending on when that easing actually happens.

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Speaker 8: How are you thinking about the outlook for Europe? As

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Speaker 8: the IMF essentially said, there could be a soft landing,

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Speaker 8: but there are risks here well.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, as I was saying before, actually the global economy

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Speaker 4: is proving resilient to both's current geopolitical attentions and also

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Speaker 4: to the process of this inflation, which we know how

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Speaker 4: to go through. So the expectations for a global gross

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Speaker 4: is of three point two percent of BOSS this year

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Speaker 4: and next. That's a IMFs world economic outlook. And as

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Speaker 4: regards the EU, we are expecting zero point nine percent

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Speaker 4: growth this year one point seven percent growth next year.

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Speaker 4: It's somewhat subdued growth right now, one could say. But

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Speaker 4: at the same time, despite a war on Zeropean continent,

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Speaker 4: despite as a need to tame high inflation, different this,

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Speaker 4: since we are facing EU's economy is nevertheless growing.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about another foreign policy matter

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Speaker 2: that you've been concerned with, and that's China supplying components

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Speaker 2: to Russia and potentially evading sanctions. There's an economic element

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Speaker 2: to this, there's obviously a geopolitical element to it.

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Speaker 4: How big of a problem is this becoming, Well, that's

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Speaker 4: certainly a cause of concern. And the two elements one

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Speaker 4: is circumvention of sanctions, but also another is innocence backfilling

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Speaker 4: of the sanctions, and we are engaged with China on

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Speaker 4: both of those elements. So in a sense what we

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Speaker 4: are doing. We have what we call a high priority

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Speaker 4: Battlefield items list, meaning items which we are finding in

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian battlefields in Russian military equipment. We are tracing the

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Speaker 4: origin of these different kind of components. Is this lethal weaponry, Well, yes,

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Speaker 4: it's Russian military weaponry which is being found on Ukrainian battlefields.

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Speaker 4: And because it's not only about weapons deliveries, there are

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Speaker 4: also many dual use components, if we talk about semiconductors,

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Speaker 4: all kinds of other components. So we're tracing it back

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Speaker 4: where it actually origins. Because we must face there's also

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Speaker 4: still quite a few of those components of Western origin

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Speaker 4: which are reaching Russia. So we also need to work

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Speaker 4: with our own companies, both in the U and US,

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Speaker 4: making sure that they are not engaged in those sanction circumventions.

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Speaker 4: And in the U we also have a possibility actually

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Speaker 4: to go after the companies which are knowingly engaging in

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Speaker 4: these kind of activities. We are putting also requirements on

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Speaker 4: no result to Russia on exports of dual use items,

439
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 4: and we're actually coordinating this work quite a lot with US.

440
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 4: We recently also put certain measures against Chinese and Hong

441
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 4: Kong Ngong paniques which are involved in sanctions circu convention

442
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 4: by prohibiting EU companies to do any business with them.

443
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: So there are things which we can do. And it's

444
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 4: clear as we are now putting strict sanctions against Russia, EU,

445
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 4: US other players, Russia is looking at a ways to

446
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 4: say convince them. So we need to stay alert, follow

447
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 4: the patterns and to the extend possible closes circ convention

448
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 4: and possible Loopholese.

449
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 2: Faldest Don brobscast with a view from the European Commission.

450
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,719
Speaker 2: We appreciate you making us part of your week here

451
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: in Washington, and I hope the spring meetings of the

452
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 2: IMF continue well for you. Thanks for talking with this.

453
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg Kelly. A lot to cover there as we

454
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: consider a vote on the REPO Act yeah tomorrow that

455
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: plays into this Ukraine story in a big way.

456
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 8: Yeah, the so called sidecar fourth piece of legislation that

457
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 8: has not just REPO but also that TikTok divestiture bill.

458
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 8: All of that going to be bundled together and sent

459
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 8: to the Senate. Chuck Schumer says, could be a working

460
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 8: weekend for senators too, not just the House and We'll

461
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 8: have more on that with our political panel next. On Bloomberg.

462
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

463
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play,

464
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: and then rout Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

465
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

466
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

467
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 8: I am Kaylee Lines alongside Joe, Matthew and Washington, where

468
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 8: it's also busy here. The House has passed one rule

469
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 8: for four different measures that they will vote on on Saturday.

470
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 8: We know, Joe that this rule had bipartisan support, helping

471
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 8: to move forward this ninety five billion dollars foreign aid package.

472
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 8: I wonder, though, when it becomes a chance to vote

473
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 8: for each of these packages individual Ukraine, Israel into Pacific,

474
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 8: the sidecar with everything else in it, what the vote

475
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 8: breakdown is going to look like. And if as many

476
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 8: Democrats will show up for the Israel funding, that's a question.

477
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 8: As for others, and perhaps maybe they're more likely to

478
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 8: after what we saw overnight with potential further escalation, though

479
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 8: not as escalatory as it could have been, as this

480
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 8: reel strikes a.

481
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 2: Well and I guess that was the plan here from

482
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, right, he knew that Dems might have a

483
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 2: problem with Israel. He certainly knew that his Republican conference

484
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: had a problem with Ukraine. I don't know what everyone

485
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: thinks about TikTok at this point, of course, the House

486
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: already moved at TikTok divest or ban bill, and so yeah,

487
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: the margins might look a little different for each of

488
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: these either way, the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson,

489
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: is pretty happy with what he sees here in a

490
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 2: rule that passed. It took more Democrats than Republicans to

491
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: do it, and he talked to reporters earlier today, here's

492
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: the Speaker.

493
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 5: It's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans

494
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 5: were in charge about the House and send it in

495
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 5: the White House. This is the best possible product that

496
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 5: we can get under these circumstances to take care of

497
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 5: these really important obligations.

498
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 2: We did the best we could. The message from the

499
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: Speaker as we assembled our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano,

500
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, It's great to have you both with

501
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: us here as we actually prepare for voting. Jeanie, let's

502
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: get to what Kayleie was talking about. Here are we

503
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: going to see a sizeable number of Democrats vote, know

504
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 2: on funding for Israel this day after the retaliation against

505
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: ir own.

506
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that's going to be one of the

507
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 9: curious things to watch. You know, you all were talking

508
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 9: about the attack last night. You know, in New York

509
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 9: here a lot of local attention on the protests at

510
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 9: Columbia University where students are asking the university to divest

511
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 9: from their investments in Israel. So this is a lot

512
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 9: of tension on the ground. We saw San Francisco not

513
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 9: that many days ago, so I do think there's a

514
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 9: possibility we do see at least a call to place

515
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 9: more conditions on that aid. But I think all in all,

516
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 9: in the end this is going to pass. But with

517
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 9: all of these sort of four buckets, if you will,

518
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 9: in this larger bill, I think we're going to see

519
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 9: some strange bedfellows and that's going to be one of

520
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 9: the dramatic things tomorrow is by how much do these

521
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 9: votes do these bills or if the separate bills pass,

522
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 9: assuming all for or at least three of the four

523
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 9: seem on their way to passage.

524
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 8: Well, Rick, we know what a lot of the progressive

525
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 8: Democrats who take issue with Israel's policy in Gaza have

526
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 8: been pushing for is Israel to have more constraint or

527
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 8: restraint rather in the consideration of the civilian death tool here,

528
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 8: they would like them to be more restrained in their operations,

529
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 8: focusing more on humanitarian aid. But there also has been

530
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 8: a lot of push for Israeli restraint in response to

531
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 8: what we saw AROANDU last weekend. Has Israel actually heeded

532
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 8: that message? Is that what we learned overnight that Okay,

533
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 8: when the US and allies do call for restraint in

534
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 8: what could have potentially been a very escalatory incidence, Israel

535
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 8: seems largely to have done that.

536
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that would be our guess. The fact

537
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 10: that Secretary Blankin did not criticize Israel today for any

538
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 10: of their actions and actually was pretty quiet about the

539
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 10: entire incursion. I mean, like Israel launches a drone strike

540
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 10: in Iran any other day that would be above the

541
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 10: full headline creating a global crisis. Now it almost seems like, oh,

542
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 10: thank god they did that. And I would say the

543
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 10: only criticism that I've seen of any real value is

544
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 10: within nit Yahoo's own wark cabinet, and you know, he

545
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 10: had some of his top allies in his coalition say

546
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 10: this was a weak attempt at a response, and so

547
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 10: you know, he was balancing the conservatives in his coalition

548
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 10: with the needs of his people and the global attitude

549
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 10: toward a broader conflict. And you know, my guess is

550
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 10: they probably figured this one out. I mean, the question

551
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 10: now is is this the end of this sort of

552
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 10: messaging phase where you know, Ran sends a message to Israel,

553
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 10: Israel sends a message to Iran. I mean, these aren't

554
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 10: really calculated as diminishing capacity on either front. It is

555
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 10: really to send messages. And so are we done with

556
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 10: the messaging phase? And can we move on now to

557
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 10: a more constructive dialogue around the humanitarian crisis and what's

558
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 10: going on in Gaza? And there's a big chunk of

559
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 10: change in this supplemental package to address some of those

560
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 10: humanitarian needs almost ten billion dollars. And so this could

561
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 10: actually be an incredibly good weekend for the president because

562
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 10: he can look at this and say I got the

563
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 10: supplemental that I basically wanted, and I have a calmer

564
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 10: Middle East to where we can actually step off and

565
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 10: start finding solutions to the death toll in Gaza, and

566
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 10: you know that's a if he can get that done,

567
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 10: that's a pretty good week of work.

568
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: Fair enough, Jeanie, I went to your point, your view

569
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 2: on Rick's point. Officials were clear here in the US

570
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 2: last night that they did get a heads up by Israel,

571
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: but they wanted to make the point that the US

572
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: did not greenlight the response. Does that make a difference

573
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 2: to progressives who are already angry at Joe Biden about Israel?

574
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 9: You know, I'm not sure it's going to make that

575
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 9: much of a difference politically. I think Israel showed an

576
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 9: awful lot of restraint, Asrick was just talking about in

577
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 9: the aftermath, as well as did the administration. I think

578
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 9: all sides, or most sides are hoping that this is

579
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 9: the end of it, that Iron doesn't decide to retaliate,

580
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 9: and the de escalation was achieved. But I will tell

581
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 9: you some of the reporting we're hearing is the kind

582
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 9: of thing that makes people on the left concerned and

583
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 9: feel that there is double speak, as some people call it,

584
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 9: come on out of the administration, And this is the

585
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 9: reporting just now that the Biden administration is considering sending tanks, mortars,

586
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 9: vehicles to got to Israel. This is the kind of

587
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 9: thing where people on the left say they don't really

588
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 9: care what the you know, sort of muted response was

589
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 9: to last night. The fact that their government is still

590
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 9: supplying and the civilian situation and the number of casualties

591
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 9: and the humanitarian crisis continues is what is the source

592
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 9: of a lot of this frustration and angst. And so

593
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 9: you know, that's where I think the political end of

594
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 9: this is going to show up. And I think Joe

595
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 9: Biden as usual is having to walk a really tough,

596
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 9: you know, tightrope on this. We heard Blinken supporting Israel

597
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 9: and our closest allies and condemning Around's attack last weekend,

598
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 9: but of course that has done little to assuage the

599
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 9: critics on the left. So it's a very tough moment

600
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 9: for the administration on all of this.

601
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, of course, because you're not just an incumbent president

602
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 8: and administration but also trying to actively campaign for president

603
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 8: and want to get reelected in November, which just makes

604
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 8: this all the more compli And of course the man

605
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 8: Biden is running against the presumptive Republican nominee Rick is

606
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 8: spending his time not so much maybe focused on geopolitics,

607
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 8: so there's certainly he has been weighing in on true

608
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 8: social but spending a lot of time, including today at

609
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 8: a courtroom in New York. We do now have the

610
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 8: jury seated. Twelve jurors have been selected one alternate. We're

611
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 8: looking for five more. But it does seem like the

612
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 8: jury selection process could wrap up in the not so

613
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 8: distant future and we could potentially be getting into opening

614
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 8: statements next week. Rick, How consequential is it going to

615
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 8: be when voters start to hear details about an alleged

616
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 8: affair between Donald Trump and a porn star and everything

617
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 8: that has happened in the aftermath.

618
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,439
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think there's been so much written and talked

619
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 10: about that Donald Trump has taken advantage of these court

620
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 10: cases and then he's raised money off of them, and

621
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 10: he's turned him into political events. I think he starts

622
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 10: to feel the pain when all the details start coming

623
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 10: out about you know, his illicit relationships, you know with

624
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 10: not just the porn star, but all so a playboy model.

625
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 10: You know, he's got his own people who are going

626
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 10: to testify. Hope Hicks likely will be on the stand

627
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 10: Michael Cohen, who's gotten a lot of press about this.

628
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 2: This is going to be horrible.

629
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 10: I mean like there's no campaign manager on the face

630
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 10: of the earth that's going to look at next week

631
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 10: and say, oh, this will be great for us. I

632
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 10: think we can really win a lot of votes this way.

633
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 10: It'll be damage control. And we see them trying to

634
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 10: do that by putting people like President Dudah in meetings

635
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 10: with the President to try and change the topic. But

636
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 10: there's only so much you can do while you've got

637
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 10: a court case going on all day.

638
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 2: David Pecker is another name as we hear about this operation.

639
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: I forget the name of the thing, Kayley, what do

640
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: they call the hide and seek whatever it is that

641
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: they had going there to basically snuff out stories that

642
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: were detrimental to Donald Trump by buying off some individuals here,

643
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: catch and kill. Elizabeth, thank you for helping me out

644
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 2: that testimony could resonate more than some of the others. Genie,

645
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: how will it play?

646
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 9: Oh, you know, I think I agree with Rick on this.

647
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 9: I think it's going to be very tough. You know,

648
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 9: I was just talking to a group of young people

649
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 9: not that long ago who don't watch all that closely,

650
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 9: and they just scratch their head out the idea that

651
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 9: he is in the first of four criminal trials, even

652
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 9: those who support him and say, how can this person

653
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 9: run for office and potentially be the next president? So

654
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 9: I think next week is critical because all of this

655
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 9: we've been talking about about these trials comes home to

656
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 9: roost and people actually see the reality, which is that

657
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,479
Speaker 9: so close to the White House may indeed be found

658
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 9: guilty of thirty four counts in a criminal trial.

659
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 8: All right, Jeanie Shanzeno and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics contributors.

660
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 8: Thank you both so much, and just to bring you

661
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 8: the latest on Trump's hush money trial up in New York.

662
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 8: All six alternates have now been selected. Wow, so we

663
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 8: have a full panel of alternates and jurors for this case.

664
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 2: Joe opening statements on Monday? Isn't that what that means?

665
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 8: Potentially they do have a half day Monday and Tuesday

666
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 8: for passover, But next week it looks like it could happen.

667
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

668
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

669
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: Oro with a Bloomberg business app. You can also listen

670
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,439
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

671
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

672
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 2: With actual news on Capitol Hill. They passed a rule

673
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 2: that should not be news. But after rules failed seven

674
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: times already, for this speaker, it was a big deal

675
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 2: to see Democrats line up behind him a few more

676
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 2: than Republicans today to pass the rule that will allow

677
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 2: all these separate funding bills to be stitched together into

678
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 2: a single body and sent to the Senate. The line

679
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 2: from Thomas Massey, one of the Republicans now two who

680
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 2: have joined Marjorie Taylor Green with her motion to vacate,

681
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 2: says all he takes to Twitter, the US House is

682
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 2: now officially in an alternate universe where the speaker shares

683
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:13,479
Speaker 2: procedural power with Democrats. Kaylee lines, is that not true

684
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: at this point of the game, Well, I.

685
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 8: Guess, effectively, if you need Democrats to get everything over

686
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 8: the finish line because you can't get enough Republican votes, yeah,

687
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 8: and you might need Democrats to save your gavel if

688
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,280
Speaker 8: this motion to vacate actually is acted upon by Marjorie

689
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 8: Taylor Green and her two buddies in this effort, then, yeah,

690
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 8: you rely on Democrats at the very least. Do we

691
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 8: go all the way and say this is a coalition government?

692
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, but maybe that formal power sharing agreement, right.

693
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 8: Maybe that's one step too far, but maybe we're.

694
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 11: Not far from it.

695
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 2: Mixican a pull us in from the ledge on this.

696
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 8: You see Mick Mulvaney, the former Republican congressman from South Carolina.

697
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 8: Of course, former acting chief of Staff under the Trump administration.

698
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 8: He has a litany of other titles as well. Make

699
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 8: always great to have you here on balance of power?

700
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 8: What's your take on what's happening in the House and

701
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 8: the extent to which might Johnson is not relying on

702
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 8: his own party but the other to get his job done.

703
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 11: Hey, Kaylee, Joe's going to see you guys as actually

704
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 11: sitting here, just jotting down some notes as you were

705
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 11: doing your little infro. And the word I kept I

706
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 11: wrote about three times was exactly what Kaylee just said.

707
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 11: This is a coalition government. That's exactly what this is.

708
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 11: Right now, And let's let's geek out a little bit,

709
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 11: shall we on House procedure If that's okay?

710
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: Right?

711
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 11: Rules are supposed to pass on party lines, and when

712
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 11: the Speaker's Committee and the Rules Committee is the Speaker's committee,

713
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 11: that the Speaker puts all the Republicans on that particular committee.

714
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,919
Speaker 11: When that committee cannot pass a piece a rule out

715
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 11: and you have to rely on the Democrats, then you

716
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 11: are now in a coalition government. You're now passing stuff

717
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 11: that is acceptable to a majority of both Republicans and Democrats,

718
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 11: a coalition style government. Give him on what a rule is.

719
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 11: Because of the arcane way that the House Representative works,

720
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,919
Speaker 11: there aren't really any rules until you say a rule

721
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 11: for every single piece of legislation. That rule includes when

722
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 11: it will be debated, how long it will be debated,

723
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 11: who gets to speak, and for how long which amendments

724
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 11: will be in order or allowed to be debated and

725
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 11: voted on, et cetera. Without that, you have to do

726
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 11: what you guys mentioned in the intro, which is do

727
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 11: a suspension of the rules, which is essentially just bring

728
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 11: something down and see if two thirds to people support it.

729
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 11: If so, it passes. This is again a bizarre way

730
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 11: to do business, but with the House's word for generations.

731
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 11: When the Republicans need the Democrats or vice versa to

732
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 11: pass a rule, which is what you have to have

733
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 11: to bring a bill to the floor where it can

734
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 11: pass with a civil majority. You have a coalition government,

735
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 11: and that's what's functioning right now in the House.

736
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 2: Well that's remarkable. I thought you were going to say,

737
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: come on, guys, give them a break. This isn't a

738
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 2: formal power sharing agreement. But we read you, Mick, and

739
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 2: I guess I'm just wondering what happens next. Then if

740
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: this is in fact a coalition style government, whatever we're

741
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: going to call it, that would also protect him from

742
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 2: being fired.

743
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 11: Right, Well, that's the test, right, I mean, I know

744
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 11: if you all saw it. Kevin McCarthy, he said, I

745
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 11: can't remember what the outlaw was. Last week, he said

746
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 11: he thought that he had an understanding from the Democrats

747
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 11: that they would come to his aid, which is why

748
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 11: he said reach out because he didn't want to spoiler

749
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 11: his relationship with his own party. And it might be

750
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 11: that Mike has something formal, something informal. It might be

751
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 11: Mike thinks they're coming to his aid, but we won't

752
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 11: really know until the vote happens. And that's why let's

753
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 11: get to the interesting stut right. The vote to vacate

754
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 11: the chair is a privileged motion, So anybody, now that

755
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,320
Speaker 11: it's been filed and it's ripened, it's sat in the

756
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 11: hopper for X number of days, it can be brought

757
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 11: up at any time by anyone, and once it is,

758
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 11: it stops all other activity. So if Marjorie Taylor Green

759
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 11: and Thomas Manaseer are sincere about trying to stop what's

760
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 11: happening on the floor, they could, in theory, not in theory,

761
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 11: they could actually bring the motion now and bring the

762
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 11: House to a halt, at least temporarily. Why they vote,

763
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 11: or semi permanently if it passes, until they reach a

764
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 11: new until they hire a new speaker, well make I.

765
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 8: Think it's interesting that some of those who cast a

766
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 8: vote to oust Kevin McCarthy last fall are suggesting that

767
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 8: they would not do so again this time because they

768
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 8: have serious concerns either it's going to hurt the Republicans

769
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 8: electorally come November, or because there's a real chance that

770
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 8: Hockey Jefferies could end up the House speaker. What's different

771
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 8: now that wasn't true when we were dealing with Kevin

772
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 8: McCarthy inside the Republican Party, including the House Freedom caucus.

773
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 8: Bob Good does not seem to want to go along

774
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 8: with us. Can you just try to take us inside

775
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 8: that room and work through what you think they might

776
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 8: be thinking.

777
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 11: I think some of the folks are starting to realize

778
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 11: what poor decision making they may have made when they

779
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 11: remove Kevin McCarthy. They sort of brought this stain on

780
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 11: the reputation of Republican Party and didn't get better policies

781
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 11: out of it anyway. So I think they're scratching their

782
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 11: heads going maybe all those people like Mulvaney who are

783
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 11: saying this is a stupid move might have been right.

784
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 11: By the way, one of my favorite sayings is that

785
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 11: the biggest line Washington, d C. Is I hate to

786
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 11: say I told you so. Everybody loves saying I told

787
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 11: you so in Washington, DC, but I said a lot

788
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 11: of folks were starting to realize that I wouldn't disminish

789
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 11: the role of Donald Trump here. I don't think Donald

790
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 11: Trump and that's the reason you saw him with Mike

791
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 11: Johnson this week was our last week. I guess it

792
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 11: lose track of time was because he doesn't want this distraction.

793
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 11: He wants the negative focus that's on Biden now about

794
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 11: the economy and Biden's inability to that and to navigate

795
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 11: what's happening in the Middle East, and he wants the

796
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 11: attention on his trials, which he is using now to

797
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 11: his political game. If the Republicans replace a speaker or

798
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 11: move replace a speaker, that goes to the top of

799
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 11: the media list and it kicks him down one, maybe

800
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 11: two notches, that he doesn't like that. So I think

801
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 11: he's a combination of things. But keep in mind, and

802
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 11: we had this conversation, Kaylee, with John Bayner the day

803
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 11: before he retired. He called a bunch of us into

804
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 11: a room, etaid, I think six or eight of us,

805
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 11: and said, are you all going to bring the motion

806
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 11: to vacate? And because it had been sitting there sort

807
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 11: of like it is now for Mike Johnson, and we said,

808
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 11: you know, mister speaker, no we won't. We'll give you

809
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 11: our word on that, but if anybody else does, we

810
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 11: are going to vote to vacate the chair. And that's

811
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 11: the question right now is are those folks out there

812
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 11: who are saying, you know, I don't want to change

813
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 11: a speaker. Let's not change the speaker now, it's bad

814
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 11: for the party.

815
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 6: Et cetera.

816
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 11: If the vote actually comes down, will they vote to

817
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 11: keep Mike Johnson in there or will they vote to

818
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 11: vote amount.

819
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 2: Well, it's really something. As your former House Freedom Caucus

820
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,959
Speaker 2: weighs in on this. To Kaylee's point, they met last

821
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 2: evening and decided that this motion to vacate was a

822
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: bad idea. Mick, is it about the devil?

823
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 6: You know?

824
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 2: The Freedom Caucus doesn't want a Steve Scalize or a

825
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: Tom Emmer to replace Mike Johnson, or God forbid, in

826
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 2: their view, a Hakim Jeffries, right.

827
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 11: I think I don't think Hakim Jeffries's possibility is for real,

828
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 11: but there might be a compromised person. But I think

829
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 11: the bottom line is this is that I think they've

830
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 11: now realized that the things they didn't like about what

831
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 11: was happening under Kevin McCarthy's speakership was not because of

832
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 11: Kevin McCarthy. It was because they have a three or

833
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 11: four or five vote margin period.

834
00:44:58,560 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 1: That's it.

835
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 11: And replace seeing Mike Johnson and any other Republican is

836
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 11: not going to change. And the outcomes at this point

837
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 11: nobody who they can imagine in their wildest dreams. Keep

838
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 11: in mind, Mike Johnson was praised by the right wing

839
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 11: when he took over as speaker. He was their win.

840
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 11: I remember that the right wing groups claiming that this

841
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 11: is what it was all about, it was worth it

842
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 11: to get rid of McCarthy. Is look at the great

843
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 11: Conservative and things are going to be different now and

844
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:24,919
Speaker 11: the A team, and we were right, And now they're

845
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 11: sort of looking their hands over and going maybe it

846
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 11: wasn't a personality driven thing or an individual driven thing.

847
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 11: Maybe it was systemic. And I think that's correct. This

848
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 11: is what you get when your majority is only four

849
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 11: or five people, and I think now some of them

850
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 11: are starting to realize that.

851
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 2: Nick Maulvaney, great to see you, Mick. Thanks for coming

852
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 2: back to talk to us. We'd love to connect next

853
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,239
Speaker 2: week once this is all done. Co founder of the

854
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 2: House Freedom Caucus, of course, former congressman and former acting

855
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 2: Chief of Staff and the Trump administration. Thanks for listening

856
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

857
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

858
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

859
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.