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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right, Here we go the test were growing up

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Speaker 2: so speak. We're sitting us to cash touchdown. We'll see

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Speaker 2: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to winning.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right. This is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brandon Anderson here with Raheem Palmer, getting

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Speaker 3: you ready for a wild card the weekend and playoffs.

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Speaker 3: For kidding made playoffs. We made to the playoffs for him,

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Speaker 3: We're here. We made it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's finally here. Eighteen weeks of the

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Speaker 2: NFL season. We had our best week eighteen ever. It

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Speaker 2: was so exciting to hopefully we can get into it

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Speaker 2: and give you guys some winners go when into the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: A lot of games that I'm really excited to see.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, really easy format.

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Speaker 2: Today.

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Speaker 3: We got six games this weekend. We're gonna break down

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Speaker 3: five of them. One comes Monday night. We got our

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Speaker 3: first ever Monday night football in the playoffs. Rahiem and

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Speaker 3: I are back Sunday night to recap, so we will

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Speaker 3: cover the Rams Cardinals game for you in that one. Otherwise,

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Speaker 3: we're just gonna do all five games today, matchups, analysis,

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Speaker 3: what are angles we like? I got a few props

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Speaker 3: along the way here. We'll hit your best bets at

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Speaker 3: the end, just to wrap up what we thought and

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Speaker 3: for futures. Today we're gonna do a look ahead, look

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Speaker 3: ahead on what we who we think is going to

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Speaker 3: win the super Bowl at this point, so don't forget.

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Speaker 3: As always. Odds are from BETAMGM, the official odds provider

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Speaker 3: of the Action Hour podcast. Nothing Fantasy Today, We're just

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Speaker 3: gonna go through five games right in order, just like

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Speaker 3: they'll come on your schedule. They'll let's get down to

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Speaker 3: business and get to the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. So let's

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Speaker 2: get down. Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 3: Let's get the first game. Had to be the Raiders Bengals,

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Speaker 3: the first gamiest first game, like we always get that

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Speaker 3: AFC Saturday afternoon, like kind of like scratch and slumber.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, playoff football. Let's wake up to this one

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Speaker 3: a little bit. That's how this one feels to me.

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Speaker 3: Bengals are five and a half point favorites. Right now

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Speaker 3: at bet MGM. The Raiders are plus two hundred on

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Speaker 3: the money line total at forty nine. So not a

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Speaker 3: matchup that we really thought it was gonna happen coming

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Speaker 3: to the season. If you had told me coming into

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Speaker 3: the year that we had Bengals Raiders, I would have said,

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Speaker 3: did the pandemic just mean that we put every team

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Speaker 3: into the playoffs? Or like, how do we get here?

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Speaker 3: So Rahim, how did we get here? How did the

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Speaker 3: Bengals or Raiders show up in the playoffs?

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Speaker 2: I mean the Bengals, they've been one of the best

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Speaker 2: offenses in the league down the stretch, so they deserve

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Speaker 2: to be here. I mean, obviously they beat Kansas City

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Speaker 2: at home. Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase have just been dominant.

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Speaker 2: And then when you look at this Raiders team, they've

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Speaker 2: been very resilient. You know, you lose you start off

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Speaker 2: the season, well, you're five and two, and then you

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Speaker 2: lose John Gruden, you lose Henry Ruggs, third, you you

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Speaker 2: have Darren Wiler out for a significant com period of

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Speaker 2: time and looks like your season is in the dumps.

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Speaker 2: But then you close the season winning four straight games.

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Speaker 2: All in which you were underdogs, except for the game

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Speaker 2: against the Cleveland Browns, where the Browns could pretty much

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Speaker 2: ravaged by COVID. So that's how we got here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a weird season. The Bengals, I guess,

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Speaker 3: feel less surprising, just because it became clear as the

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Speaker 3: year when non they were the class of that division

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Speaker 3: in the AFC North, the not the finest division, but

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Speaker 3: they're the team that deserves to be here. I can't

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Speaker 3: believe we've got two teams from that division. We'll come

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Speaker 3: back to the Steelers later. The Raiders, though, are just

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Speaker 3: a zig when you think they're about the zag team

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Speaker 3: the whole season long. You know, the John Gruden thing

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Speaker 3: and Henry Ruggs thing both feel forever ago, but not

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Speaker 3: to that team like this has been like a soap

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Speaker 3: opera seeing how that team played out. Rich Pasaccia done

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Speaker 3: an awesome job taking over the team midseason and getting

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Speaker 3: them here. Both these teams have been in one score

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Speaker 3: games all year long, both of them. I think if

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Speaker 3: you play out this version of the season a bunch

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Speaker 3: more times, the Raiders and almost no scenario are the

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Speaker 3: five seed, Like this is the best version of what

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Speaker 3: seed the Raiders were going to get the Bengals. I

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Speaker 3: think you can speak a little bit more for them.

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Speaker 3: But both of these teams are bottom half of the

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Speaker 3: NFL and DVA. Both of them are bottom half on

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Speaker 3: offense and defense. The Bengals look a little better, but

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Speaker 3: the Bengals have played a really soft schedule this season.

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Speaker 3: They've actually play faced the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: so that's part of why the offenses looks so good.

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Speaker 3: Raiders are seven to two in one score games, four

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Speaker 3: to o in overtime games, last four games. They just

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Speaker 3: want all of them to get into the playoffs. Four

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Speaker 3: to o in again close one score games there. So

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Speaker 3: this feels to me it's a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: playoff appetizer. I'm not watching this game with an I

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Speaker 3: thinking like, all right, who's going to emerge as a

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Speaker 3: team that can really make a deep run here? This

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Speaker 3: is like who's going to get the playoff win? We

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Speaker 3: never would have expected either one of these teams to

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Speaker 3: do it. The Bengals are on the longest streak in

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Speaker 3: professional sports in America right now. January nineteen ninety one,

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Speaker 3: the last time they won a playoff game. Houston Oilers.

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Speaker 3: It's it's a franchise ago, so it's a good spot

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Speaker 3: for the Bengals. Do you think that they get the

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Speaker 3: win here?

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Speaker 2: I think it's so funny that you mentioned this that

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Speaker 2: around of Bengals, no person in the history of the

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Speaker 2: world sind the text messes about the Bengals winning a

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Speaker 2: playoff game. So that's how lone he han't won. There's

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Speaker 2: some sharp money all over to the Raiders in this matchup.

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Speaker 2: The Bengals actually blew this team out thirty two to thirteen.

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Speaker 2: But when you looked at that game, these teams were

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Speaker 2: pretty equally match You had the Raiders coming out actually

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Speaker 2: scoring first. This was a ten to six game going

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Speaker 2: into the second half. The Raiders kind of beat themselves

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Speaker 2: with some penalties, which they've been doing all year long.

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Speaker 2: But you look at the Raiders, they outgained them in yards,

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Speaker 2: they outgained them in passing yards. It's just the turnovers

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Speaker 2: beat this team. So they've really found something with renfro

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Speaker 2: and Darren Waller. Back when you look at the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: they really have struggle against solid passing offenses. That's the

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Speaker 2: time that you want to fade this team. Since Week nine,

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Speaker 2: They're thirty first in NFL and yards can play allowed,

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Speaker 2: So I think that the Raiders are going to find

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Speaker 2: some success. This Bengals team has played the thirty first

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Speaker 2: rink schedule. This is really a good spot for the

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Speaker 2: Raiders to actually get within the number. And I think

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Speaker 2: this is a closer game and more exciting than people realize.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree that that's a good spot for the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: I think that November matchup is giving us some value

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Speaker 3: on the number here. Bengals closed that one as one

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Speaker 3: and a half point road favorites thirty two to thirteen

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Speaker 3: to finals score, But like you said, it was close

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Speaker 3: most of the way. Those Raiders turnovers you mentioned, they

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Speaker 3: came late, and they came when the Raiders were trailing

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Speaker 3: and pressing, and that's gonna happen, you know, Like I'd

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Speaker 3: rather a team go for the win, and when you

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Speaker 3: go all out for the win, sometimes you lose by

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Speaker 3: a bunch. We had that happen a bunch of the season,

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Speaker 3: but it was thirteen to six in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 3: so I don't really take a ton away from that game.

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Speaker 3: I certainly don't take away from that game. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's bump this line up the extra four points. And

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Speaker 3: just because the Bengals are at home here, you know

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Speaker 3: the fans are gonna come out. It's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: fun environment for sure, to getting their playoff home game there.

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Speaker 3: But I worry about the Bengals offensive line. Jope Burrow

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Speaker 3: was sacked fifty one times this season. We don't know

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Speaker 3: too if Burrow is fully healthy. You know, we haven't

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Speaker 3: seen him. He got hurt right at the end of

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Speaker 3: that huge win against the Chiefs and then we didn't

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Speaker 3: see him since then. He should be healthy, But this

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Speaker 3: is a dude coming off the ACL tear, this guy

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Speaker 3: that took some time to get up to full speed

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of the year. So there is that

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Speaker 3: question mark. I'm not super worried, but it's another reason

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Speaker 3: to maybe be a little hesitant about the Bans. The

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Speaker 3: right side of that O line is going to be

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Speaker 3: in trouble. Max Crosby, Unique and Gacaway have been really

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Speaker 3: rushing the passer well this year. That game against the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: they were just in the backfield all night, like Justin

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Speaker 3: Herbert was a king, just to just to keep them

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Speaker 3: in the game as long as they could. With those

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Speaker 3: guys in a space all game. So I agree that's

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Speaker 3: a nice matchup. Darren Waller, I agree is going to

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Speaker 3: cause some problems. The other thing too, Neither pass defense

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Speaker 3: is reliable here, so I think that that the door

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Speaker 3: is going to be wide open, like this game is

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Speaker 3: not going to be over. Whatever happens early. Either team

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Speaker 3: is going to be able to pass the ball. Last game,

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Speaker 3: Chase Jamar Chase and t Higgins only five catches for

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Speaker 3: forty seven yards. But I'm curious with the Bengals, we

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Speaker 3: saw a very run heavy team most of the year

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Speaker 3: and a big reliance on Joe Mixon. The Raiders run

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Speaker 3: defense is pretty good, their pass defense not so good.

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Speaker 3: The last two games Joe Burrow played, the Bengals passed

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Speaker 3: a ton, They went area pass heavy, and we saw

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Speaker 3: Chase and Higgins have huge games. Do you think that

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Speaker 3: that was a matchup player or do you think that

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Speaker 3: was a change in philosophy and the Bengals will stay

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Speaker 3: so aggressive passing.

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Speaker 2: Tough to know. With Zach Teler, I'm gonna be honest,

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Speaker 2: which is really tough, you know, But I think the

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Speaker 2: Raiders will be fine either way because when you look

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Speaker 2: at the strength of the Raiders, that's their pass rush

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Speaker 2: their eighth and ESPN's pass rush one week, and we

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Speaker 2: know that this Bengals offensive line is truly a struggle.

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Speaker 2: So and then like you said, we're able to stop

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Speaker 2: the run as well. So you look at ESPN's run

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Speaker 2: stop win rate. The Raiders are ninth, so we know

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Speaker 2: the last game got away from them. Probably why you're

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Speaker 2: seeing this total actually drop. So we've seen the Bengals

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Speaker 2: go over much of the season, and this total's dropping

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Speaker 2: from forty nine and there's forty eight and a halfs

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Speaker 2: in the market. So I think this is a game

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Speaker 2: in which the Raiders can actually show defensively.

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Speaker 3: I think that they'll have a chance there if that

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Speaker 3: pass rush can get home. You know, I think they've

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Speaker 3: played ninety snaps last week after an emotional win, emotional

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Speaker 3: home stretch, emotional season for them, So I do worry

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Speaker 3: a little bit. Could they just tire out by the

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Speaker 3: end of the game. So I do worry about that

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Speaker 3: fact a little bit. But also, the Raiders for the

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Speaker 3: season have been a top five EPA team in the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter. They're a strong finishing team. Derek Carry has

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Speaker 3: always been a fourth quarter type quarterback, So I just

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Speaker 3: think this game is gonna be live. I think that

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Speaker 3: neither team is going to get away from it here.

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Speaker 3: Both teams will be able to whoever's behind will be

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Speaker 3: able to pass and stay in it. A good stat here,

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Speaker 3: since two thousand and three, per action Labs, home favorites

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Speaker 3: of seven or few are in the wild card round

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Speaker 3: are fourteen to twenty eight and a one against the spread,

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Speaker 3: so only covering thirty three percent of the time. We're

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Speaker 3: giving a little too much respect to these home teams

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Speaker 3: here in the in the division or in the wildcard round.

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Speaker 3: And remember, for most of those games, that's excluding the

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Speaker 3: one in the two seeds, these are the lesser home teams,

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Speaker 3: and we're giving too much credit to home field.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, without a doubt. I mean, look, if you

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Speaker 2: just go back to twenty seventeen, road dogs in the

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Speaker 2: wildcard round are fourteen and two against the spread, and

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Speaker 2: for four stree years an underdog or at least five

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Speaker 2: points has won outright, So these underdogs have had a

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Speaker 2: ton of value, and I think a lot of that

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Speaker 2: has to do with the fact that we're seeing declining

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Speaker 2: home field advantage in the NFL. So five years ago,

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Speaker 2: home for the advantage might have been worth three points

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Speaker 2: for everybody. That's no longer the case. I think that's

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Speaker 2: why you're seeing this spread come down. A lot of

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Speaker 2: the sharp money is on the Raiders. There's a reason

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Speaker 2: for it, and it's come hard and it's come early. Honestly,

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Speaker 2: I think even at plus five five and a half,

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Speaker 2: I think there's some value here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll think the Raiders five and a half. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna sprinkle the money line at two hundred just because

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Speaker 3: that's it implies that the Raiders only win this one

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Speaker 3: and three times. I think that's low. I think it's

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Speaker 3: much closer to fifty to fifty to go too hard

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Speaker 3: on this game. I feel like I could wake up

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Speaker 3: Monday morning and you could tell me the Raiders want

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Speaker 3: to close game, the Bengals want a close game. Either

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Speaker 3: team one by ten, and I'd be like, Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I understand how we got there. Like, there are a

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Speaker 3: lot of outcomes here, so I don't want to go

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Speaker 3: too hard. But if all those outcomes are on the table,

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Speaker 3: you got to take the odds and take the points.

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Speaker 3: I think, oh yeah, without a doubt. All right, So

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Speaker 3: another possible short road dog. We've talked about that all season.

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Speaker 3: Saturday night. A little bit of a better game here.

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Speaker 3: We talked about this game on our last podcast, kind

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Speaker 3: of a king maker game of this is going to

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Speaker 3: really determine more what the AFC playoff picture looks like.

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Speaker 3: We got a divisional rematch. New England goes to Buffalo.

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Speaker 3: We saw both of those teams. We saw them play

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Speaker 3: each other twice down the stretch.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 3: We had that windstorm, weird Monday night game where the

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Speaker 3: Patriots eked out the whin Buffalo came back and got

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Speaker 3: the big win in New England. After that, the Bills

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Speaker 3: are four point favorites at home here total at forty

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Speaker 3: four points. Buffalo big super Bowl for the season. Newland

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Speaker 3: wasn't necessarily expected to get here, but this is a

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Speaker 3: division matchup. Anything goes. What do you think about Buffalo

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Speaker 3: or New England here?

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Speaker 2: You said this might be a better game, and I

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Speaker 2: have to beg the differ because we're looking at some

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Speaker 2: bad weather. There's not a ton of winning this matchup

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Speaker 2: like we saw in that Monday night matchup. But we're

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Speaker 2: looking at about a high of seven degrees and a

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Speaker 2: low of minus two, So I don't know if that's

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Speaker 2: conducive for a great game. And last time these two

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Speaker 2: teams played, Josh Allen he was done it through for

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Speaker 2: three hundred and fourteen yards, three touchdowns, He scrambled for

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Speaker 2: sixty four yards, and he was able to go out

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Speaker 2: there and just and beat this Patriots team. But I

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Speaker 2: think Belichick is gonna have something up his sleeve in

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Speaker 2: this matchup. Got to deal with Stefan Diggs and you

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Speaker 2: got to deal with Cole Beasley and Emanuel Sanders's Belichick,

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Speaker 2: It's it's tough to count him out. But for me,

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Speaker 2: I think this reeks of a lower scoring game. When

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Speaker 2: you look at these low temperature games, typically you just

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Speaker 2: don't have guys slinging the ball around at will. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, what's your thoughts on this?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you definitely. If you are not

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Speaker 3: to call you a casual I'm not. If you're a

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Speaker 3: casual fan, I think the earlier game will be better.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a higher scoring game. We're gonna get

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Speaker 3: points back and forth. If you're just a die hard

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Speaker 3: playoff football baby, that's where I feel like Saturday Night's

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Speaker 3: gonna be good because I think it's gonna be close

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Speaker 3: all the way. I think it's gonna be low scoring,

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Speaker 3: run the ball, smash mouth. Like if you thought that

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Speaker 3: first Monday Night game was a fun, good football game,

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Speaker 3: you'll think this is a good, fun football game. I

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Speaker 3: thought that was good. I enjoyed watching it. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: the weather, I agree, the weather is a factor that

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Speaker 3: helps New England here. The weather alse helps the underdog

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Speaker 3: in almost every case because it limits the scoring. You're

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Speaker 3: limiting that those big plays, those passing down the field.

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Speaker 3: We already know. Both these teams are defense first teams.

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Speaker 3: The Bill's defense have an awesome all year. The Patriots

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Speaker 3: have had some ups and downs, but been mostly very

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Speaker 3: strong all year. The last time that these guys played,

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Speaker 3: the defense wasn't as strong. There were I think something

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Speaker 3: like eight or nine drives of nine plus plays. With

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Speaker 3: these long drives, keeping the ball with bad weather, with

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Speaker 3: cold weather, you got to run the ball more. And

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Speaker 3: that favors New England for sure. Buffalo's pass defense awesome,

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Speaker 3: and I'm not excited about Mac Jones passing into it

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Speaker 3: five interceptions the last four games, under sixty percent completion.

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Speaker 3: But if the run game is a bigger factor here,

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Speaker 3: Damien Harris at over one hundred yards both games against Buffalo.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo's run defense is beatable, and I trust New England's

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Speaker 3: run defense better. A thing you like about New England

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Speaker 3: here and just in the playoffs in general, they finished

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Speaker 3: the season top ten DVA run offense, pass offense, run defense,

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Speaker 3: and pass defense. They're not awesome at anything, but they're

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Speaker 3: good at everything. And in the playoffs with Bill Belichick,

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Speaker 3: that makes you so danger because you can bend the matchup,

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Speaker 3: you can find that one week spot and really attack it.

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Speaker 3: And the Bills weaker spot is running the ball and

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Speaker 3: defending the run, and the weather sets up the Patriots

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Speaker 3: to do that really well.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, without a doubt. Just the one concern

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Speaker 2: that you have to have is Matt Jones, and I

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Speaker 2: think you mentioned that he hasn't been playing well. And

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Speaker 2: not only has he not been playing well, it's like

334
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Speaker 2: if you go back, if you look at his numbers

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Speaker 2: over the last couple of weeks, I think he's twenty

336
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Speaker 2: third in completion over expectation, sixteenth and EPA per drop back.

337
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Speaker 2: So he's not a guy that I think Belichick is

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Speaker 2: just going to go balls to the wall with like

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Speaker 2: he's Tom Brady. So I'm thinking that you're going to

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Speaker 2: get a more conservative game plan from this team, and

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Speaker 2: the defense knows they're going to have to step up

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Speaker 2: against Josh Allen. So to me, I mean, when you

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Speaker 2: look at this weather, there's gonna be opposing views on

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00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 2: this game because we saw how Josh Allen was super

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Speaker 2: successful in their last match, and forty four is a

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Speaker 2: low total. To me, I tend to lean towards the under.

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Speaker 2: If I had to pick anything, I think we're just

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Speaker 2: going to see a lower scoring game. I think the

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Speaker 2: play is the first half under. There's some twenty two's

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Speaker 2: in the market, twenty two and a half, I think

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Speaker 2: at sugar House, I think that's what I would go

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Speaker 2: with because I think Belichick knows that we got to

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Speaker 2: come into this game a little bit more conservative. We

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Speaker 2: don't want to throw Matt Jones out there and then

355
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Speaker 2: make a mistake. So I'm looking first half under.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that play. I lean under as well. Here.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a low scoring It's

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Speaker 3: gonna be close, and the longer it's flow scoring, the

359
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Speaker 3: longer it's close, the more pressure that goes on the

360
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Speaker 3: home team. The Bills had the higher expectations. The Patriots

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Speaker 3: are playing with house money at this point. And Bill

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Speaker 3: Belichick really is a good coach obviously everywhere, but especially

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Speaker 3: as an underdog in the regular season thirty to fifteen

364
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Speaker 3: and two against the spread as an underdog for Belichick,

365
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Speaker 3: sixty seven percent cover and that's by six points game.

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Speaker 3: So we just we've seen it this year. We've we

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Speaker 3: talked about with Belichick in some of these marquee games

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Speaker 3: against these high flying offenses. He just knows how to

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Speaker 3: grind everything down and the cold weather helps that, and

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00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 3: the playoff atmosphere helps that. Belichick is sixty one percent

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Speaker 3: cover rate against the Bills lifetime thirty two and eleven

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Speaker 3: straight up. We just talked about short road dogs. That's

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00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 3: been a trend all season. That's a trend in the

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Speaker 3: wildcut around sixty seven percent. I like a couple of

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Speaker 3: props here. I like Damian Harris. You can get him

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00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 3: at a few books, can get him to go for

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Speaker 3: like eighty yards plus two forty one hundred yards plus

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Speaker 3: five twenty. You know, I love my alternate overs. So

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00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 3: you know, he had one hundred and eleven and one

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Speaker 3: hundred and three yards in his two games against the

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Speaker 3: Bills this year, and he had four other games at

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Speaker 3: eighty plus two, so I think he could have a

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Speaker 3: big game grinding it out. Josh Allen over thirty nine

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Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards. I like that one too.

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Speaker 3: I might look for an alternate. He had sixty four

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00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 3: like you said last game, and if the Bills do win,

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00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 3: I think Allen's legs be big part of it. A

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00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 3: key matchup here is the Patriots love to play zone usually.

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Speaker 3: The last game they played a ton of man. It

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00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,880
Speaker 3: worked very well stopping the pass. The problem is there's

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Speaker 3: nobody left to stop Josh Allen from running, and that's

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Speaker 3: why Alan really did some damage last time. So that'll

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Speaker 3: be interesting. Chess matchup is do they go back to

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Speaker 3: the zone where they can hold Alan back a little

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00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 3: better or do they go in man where they cover better.

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Speaker 3: And Diggs is a big deal too, just because he's

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Speaker 3: so good that way. So my angle is those two props.

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Speaker 3: The other one I like is this. I think the

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00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,199
Speaker 3: right angle is a Patriots to win here. You can

400
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 3: get the Patriots to win by one to six points

401
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 3: at plus four thirty, New England's not gonna blow them

402
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 3: out here. I don't think we're expecting a low scoring thing.

403
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 3: We're expecting maybe a Fueld goal win or something like that.

404
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: Maybe the Pats win by seven, depending how things go,

405
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 3: Josh Allen to make a mistake, all is a risk there,

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Speaker 3: But a Pats win six points are less plus four thirty.

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Speaker 3: I think you're gonna really get a price on that number,

408
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 3: considering all what we're saying of this cold weather, low

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Speaker 3: scoring game. And you know, we'll talk about this a

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Speaker 3: bit later too. I think if you like the Patriots here,

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Speaker 3: I think you look at their AFC odds or Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl odds too, because the path is much better for

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Speaker 3: New England, the way it opens up chance to play

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Speaker 3: Tennessee in all likelihood next week. We've talked all year

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Speaker 3: about how they are a beatable team, Belichick against Vrabel.

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Speaker 3: So I like the Pats here, I don't love them.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be a very good, close game. Good

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Speaker 3: if you're a diehard fan. But I like the Pats

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00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: to win a close one.

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Speaker 2: Maybe. Yeah, I'm not mad at it.

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Speaker 3: All. Right, let's hear quick word from our sponsor and

422
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 3: then hit Sunday's games.

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00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:46,000
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Speaker 1: get started. Must be twenty one or older and physically

443
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Speaker 1: located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

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Speaker 1: not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's

454
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Speaker 1: get back to the.

455
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Speaker 3: Show, all right, Sunday, We've got two NFC games an

456
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 3: AFC game on Sunday. We start out in Tampa Bay

457
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: with the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucks are home

458
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 3: to the Eagles, eight and a half point favorites right now.

459
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: Totals out forty five and.

460
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 2: A half and light the Bucks in this matchup. First

461
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 2: game was a bit of a flu First things first,

462
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 2: the Eagles what they like to do. They like to

463
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 2: run the ball. They have the highest run pass ratio

464
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: in the league fifty two percent to forty eight percent.

465
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 2: Bucks run defenses dropped down a little bit. There's still

466
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: fifty e pay per play. Joel Longes is a thirty

467
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: eight one point one percent success rate. So I think

468
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: the Eagles are gonna have a tough time running the ball.

469
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: And when you look at these Eagles defense, what are

470
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: they struggle with? The ruggle with stopping quarterback would throw

471
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 2: the ball down the field. Tom Brady made easy work

472
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 2: at the Eagles thirty four to forty two pass with

473
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: two hundred and ninety seven yards two touchdowns, and he

474
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 2: led the Bucks to a twenty eighty seven league And

475
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 2: until five forty seven left in the third quarter, they

476
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 2: had this game under control. And I think it was

477
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 2: just a it was just a kind of a flu

478
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 2: thing where they took the gas and the Eagles scored

479
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 2: fifteen answer points to cover. And also there's the Bucks

480
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 2: roll Wolves. They really have struggled on the road, and

481
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: that's not the case in this matchup. So I like

482
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers here.

483
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 3: I love the Bucks here. I think it's a great

484
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: spot for them. I agree that that October Thursday night

485
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 3: game twenty eight, twenty two finals score, but you just

486
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 3: can't go by that this was a blowout. The Bucks

487
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 3: were never in trouble three hundred ninety nine yards to

488
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirteen yards. They basically doubled them up

489
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: forty to twenty minutes. Time of possession doubled up again.

490
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: Eagles had a touchdown after forty five yard penalty, they

491
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: touched on after a fifty yard penalty, so basically that

492
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 3: was their first two touchdowns. Otherwise this was headed towards shutout.

493
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,239
Speaker 3: So Tampa Bay penalties kept the Eagles in it, but

494
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 3: they weren't really in it, like the Bucks were in

495
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: control all the way. You know, I played the Eagles

496
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: a lot the second half of the season. I was

497
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 3: in on their run first identity, and as I dug

498
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 3: into it getting ready for this one, the question that

499
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 3: we had ask ourselves is did the Eagles really become

500
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 3: a new different team the second half or did they

501
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 3: just stop playing good teams? And I think it's some

502
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 3: of both. I think it's much easier to adopt a

503
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: run first, run second mentality when you're winning. If you're ahead,

504
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 3: you get to run the ball. If you're playing the Bucks,

505
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 3: you might not be ahead. And if it's twenty one

506
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: to seven and you're the seven, you don't get to

507
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 3: just keep running the ball. This is your season on

508
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: the line. So look, you know, three and six for

509
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 3: the Eagles to start the year, six and two to

510
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: finish the six and two came against Lions, Jets, Giants twice,

511
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: Washington twice, Denver, and New Orleans. These are not good teams.

512
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: These are not teams playing this weekend. Oh sure, six

513
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 3: and two against them, But the Eagles finished zero to

514
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 3: six against playoff teams, average loss by twelve points a game,

515
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 3: one in five against the spread in those games, this

516
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 3: was the only cover and it really shouldn't have been

517
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 3: a cover. It came with that garbage score is late.

518
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that the Bucks run defense is

519
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 3: going to be fine here. They actually were top three

520
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 3: ep over the last month of the season, so they

521
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 3: had a bit of a swoon, but bounce back. Campo

522
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: is five and one against playoff teams. They've won seven

523
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,239
Speaker 3: of eight. They're getting their guys back healthy. I'm not

524
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 3: that worried about the Bucks coming into the you know,

525
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 3: the playoffs. That feels like a bit of a low

526
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: point for them. I think they're just coasting. They've played

527
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 3: garbage teams for the last three weeks. They treated it

528
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 3: kind of like just a run up to the playoffs. Honestly,

529
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 3: I think they might treat this one the same way.

530
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: I don't really expect the Eagles to be on this

531
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: one too much.

532
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one of the things about the Eagles

533
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: is they've only beaten one team with the winning record

534
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 2: all year long. That's the New Orleans Saints. It's the

535
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: only team that they've beaten with a winning record the

536
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: entire season. Look, a lot of people are gonna look

537
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 2: at no Antonio Brown, No Chris Gotwin and think this

538
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 2: Buccaneers team doesn't have a lot of weapons. But what

539
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 2: have I been saying whatever about Tom Brady? Tom Brady

540
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 2: is like Alonzo from training to day. You give him

541
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 2: eighteen months, he'll give you a career. It doesn't matter

542
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 2: who he's throwing to. Like, we've seen this guy make

543
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 2: careers out of everybody, and he still has Mike Evans,

544
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 2: he still has Rob Gronkowski. He can make Tyler Johnson

545
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 2: a thing like whoever the rest of these guys are

546
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 2: that he's thrown to. It doesn't matter. Tom Brady is

547
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: the He's the elite guy. They're gonna go out there

548
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 2: and be able to score some points. When this Eagles team.

549
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: I think this line is short.

550
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 3: I agree. I think it's short as well. I like

551
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 3: Bucks eight and a half. I think the line's gonna

552
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 3: rise by kickoff if you can get it now. It's

553
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: a great teaser spot also because you're gonna get it

554
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 3: under a field goal there. I think we'll get to

555
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: the Chiefs game soon. But the Bucks Chiefs teezer is

556
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: a feeling to me, basically just to got the two

557
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: teams we knew were the best all season, along just

558
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: taking care of business against frankly, two non playoff teams

559
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 3: that are only here because we started allowing seven seeds in.

560
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: Sorry about it, Pennsylvania, but you know there are two

561
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 3: teams that are clearly the worst teams in each conference.

562
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: So I like the Bucks. Sunday afternoon is the big one.

563
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 3: That's the one I'm excited about for really, for the

564
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: whole weekend. I know you're excited as a Dallas Cowboys fan.

565
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 3: Cowboys are at home taking on the forty nine Ers. Man,

566
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: it feels like the nineties. We saw a ton of

567
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 3: good Cowboys Niners games year after year in the nineties,

568
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 3: usually twice a year. We get regular season again in

569
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 3: the playoffs, We're back. The Cowboys are a field goal favorite.

570
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: We talked about this game a bunch earlier in this week.

571
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: Both of us were big on the forty nine ers.

572
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 3: Are you still on the forty nine ers here?

573
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 2: I still love the forty nine ers. I think this

574
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 2: is my favorite pick of the week. Look, I mean

575
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: is Cowboys offense. They've been struggling since Dak Prescottwick's turned

576
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: from injury a week nine. They just haven't been the

577
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 2: same offense. Look. They scoring eight points per game, which

578
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: is I mean solid, but they're just sixteenth EPA play

579
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 2: twenty first success rate, nineteenth and drop back success rate

580
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: and twenty seventh and rushing success rate. They're gonna have

581
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 2: to deal with this forty nine Ers defense, which is

582
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: second in EPA for play and second in success rate.

583
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 2: They have a dominant pass rush. Look, the Cobys, we

584
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 2: know they want established a run, but we've seen the

585
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 2: decline in a rushing offense. The Seahawks. They went out

586
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: there and they put up one hundred and ninety yards

587
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: rushing on the Cardinals, and the Cobbegs couldn't do anything.

588
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 2: And then I look at the other side of the ball.

589
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 2: Forty nine are gonna be able to run all over

590
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: this Cowboys rushing defense. They can get home without Blitzer,

591
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 2: which is a major key. And we noticed fort nine

592
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: and secondary has been a little bit leaky, but they're

593
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: not gonna have Michael Gallup to have to do it.

594
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: That's one less weapon, So fort nine and secondary getting healthy.

595
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 2: I really love the forty nine ers in this matchup.

596
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo has quietly been the better quarterback than Dak Prescott.

597
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: He's vesting them in EPA could play. He's vested in

598
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: him in an over expectation composite success rate. He's better there,

599
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: he's better at completion of perscentage, he's better in Football

600
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: Outsiders dB away. Nearly every single metric is telling you

601
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: that Jimmy Garoppolo has been a better quarterback. And I

602
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: know Jimmy Garoppolo's has some issues with some turnovers, but

603
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott has n't been getting it done. And this

604
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: frit Nice's offense is six and EPA could play in

605
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: nine and success rate. I like the four nine ers

606
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 2: plus three, and I like him to win this game.

607
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: Alright, Yeah, that is a lot, but it's really hard

608
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 3: to disagree with any of that I think, just to

609
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 3: be clear, I think you're not saying necessarily that Jimmy

610
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: Garoppolo is a better quarterback than Dak Prescott. He's just

611
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: is playing better football right now and certainly is playing

612
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 3: in a system that elevates him a lot better than

613
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: what the Cowboys are doing. Dak has not looked the

614
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 3: same since coming back from that calf injury. You know,

615
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: the Cowboys had two big National TV games down the

616
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: stretch there against the Eagles against Washington, put up a

617
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 3: ton of points. Throw the throw them out, so those

618
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 3: games meant nothing. Are playing their backups. Washington is basically

619
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,719
Speaker 3: playing their backups with all their COVID guys in. You

620
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 3: can't look at that and be like, oh, okay, Dallas

621
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: offense is fine again. Dallas the first six weeks or

622
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 3: so before Dak got hurt, before the run games start

623
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 3: to fall off, totally different offense than they are right now.

624
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 3: And I'm not sure they're going to score a ton

625
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: of points in this one or throughout the playoffs. The

626
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 3: run game hasn't be good. Ezekiel, Elliott and Pollard both

627
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 3: are playing injured right now. So where it looked like

628
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 3: this great one to attack it's kind of neither one

629
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: of them is really showing up right now. The other

630
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 3: thing too, I love Dallas as a possible sleeper here,

631
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: not in this game, but coming to the playoffs if

632
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 3: things bounced right, because Michaeh Parsons, Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence.

633
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 3: That defensive line can take over games and dominate them. However,

634
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 3: what's the best antidote to a strong pass rush. It's

635
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: running right at them. And that's what the Niners are

636
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 3: going to do. That's why I love how they match up.

637
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 3: When this one Trent Williams looks like he's healthy, that's

638
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: a huge, huge, huge get for the Niners to get

639
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 3: him back out there. You got George Kittle and Kyle

640
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: Uschek blocking. I love when they do the Deebo Samuel

641
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: runs because you end up like sweeping from the side

642
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 3: and the running back on the field ends up blocking,

643
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,719
Speaker 3: so you can extra blocker beyond the full back and

644
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 3: the tight end and the dominant line. And I think

645
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: that run game, the power run game right at the

646
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 3: pass rushers and then the misdirection to throw off the

647
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 3: pass rushers. I think that's a real matchup advantage in

648
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 3: the Niners favor and it's a way to negate the

649
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: best thing that the Cowboys do, which is rush the

650
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 3: passer Number one pass defense dv In. It's because those

651
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 3: guys up front. So I love the matchup here for

652
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 3: the Niners. As the week has gone on, I have

653
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: gone a slightly more hesitant. And here's the reason. I

654
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: think the Niners dominate time of possession. I think they

655
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: dominate run the ball, keep the ball moving. However, we

656
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: know Jimmy Garoppolo is a flawed quarterback. We know at

657
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: any given time he can go all Carson Wentz and

658
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: with the pass all it takes is one or two

659
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 3: times for that pass rush to get home one or

660
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 3: two a strip, an interception. Cravon Diggs has been a

661
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 3: big playmaker all year. The Cowboys defense has been big

662
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 3: at just making plays, pulling things out of nowhere. Cowboys offense,

663
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: I don't trust them to go on these big, long drives,

664
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: but I do think I wouldn't be shocked to see

665
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: the Cowboys pull out a win here on the basis

666
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: of just like four or five big plays, one or

667
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: two huge defensive plays, a couple of big passes down

668
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 3: the field in a game where they only have the

669
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 3: ball twenty minutes, and we're like, how how do they

670
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 3: pull that off? The Niners dominated and I could see

671
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 3: those big plays going Dallas's way. So I still like

672
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 3: forty nine ers here, but especially dropping the three. I

673
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: wanted the three and a half. We hope the line

674
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: would go higher. Do you think the line's gonna move

675
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 3: up still? Or is Dallas just gonna sit there at three?

676
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 2: I think three might be the right number. I mean, look,

677
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: you have certain books right now to have three minus

678
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: one twenty, so I can't see them going up to

679
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 2: a three and a half. You're one and a half

680
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 2: in the market. But I mean, for the most part,

681
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:04,719
Speaker 2: I think this is staying at three because I think

682
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 2: the Sharper money is going to be all on the

683
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, and I think you're going to have

684
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 2: the public money all on the Cowboys. But it's just

685
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 2: you mentioned Trayvon Diggs, and although he has the reputation

686
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: of this elite quarterback because of the interceptions, he really

687
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: hasn't been very good. He's just ninety out of ninety

688
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: one quarterbacks and Pro Football Focus with three hundred plus

689
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: coverage snaps and yards allowed for target, So cowbs are

690
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: twenty six and yards allowed to oppose, and wide receivers

691
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 2: at nearly nine yards of play, so you can expect

692
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: a big day for Deebo Sammy. And they also not

693
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,479
Speaker 2: very good at covering tight ends. So I think this

694
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: is a game with which Jimmy Garoppolokashawn. I know we

695
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: talk a lot about his interceptions, but when you look

696
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 2: at how he's played in the clutch, let's go back

697
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 2: to some of these games. He led the potential game

698
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 2: winning drive against the Green Bay Packers in which they

699
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 2: took the lead. They just left thirty seconds for Aaron

700
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: Rodgers and that's all he beat to get into the playoffs.

701
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: He led the game win and drop. Even when you

702
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: look at the game against the Titans, in the game

703
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: in which you could say he probably didn't play well

704
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: because they probably should have been up twenty one nothing

705
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 2: in the first half, he actually led the game tying

706
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: score to tie the game in the fourth quarter Titans

707
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 2: just drove down to kick a field goal because there's

708
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 2: just not enough time left. And then you look at

709
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals, he led two game winning drops. To me,

710
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo has been I hate to say it. He's

711
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 2: been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season.

712
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: If you lead four potential game winning drops, I gotta

713
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: trust you. Regardless of what the reputation says. We know

714
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run the ball, So I'm

715
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: all over this forty nine. But I do think you

716
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 2: made a great point because turnover swing games and we

717
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 2: know he is turnover prome.

718
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, the numbers back you. The numbers show Jimmy Garoppolo,

719
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 3: you know in the EPA and completion percentage our expectation.

720
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 3: Garppo has been at or near the top of the

721
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: charts pretty much all season. So it's again, it's not

722
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 3: a vacuum. You're playing with those other ten guys. You're

723
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 3: playing in Cal Shanahan's system right now. In that system,

724
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 3: Groppolo is getting the job done.

725
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 2: He just is.

726
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 3: The numbers tell the story. Shanahan has an underdog, has

727
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 3: been really good, and Mike McCarthy versus Shanahan big advantage

728
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 3: to Shanahan in that one. So that's definitely a spot too.

729
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 3: I lean under here. I don't trust the Cowboys to

730
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 3: go on these long drives. I think the Niners chew

731
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 3: up clock with their run and that makes the game

732
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 3: a little bit shorter. I do worry a little bit

733
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 3: too about that. Jimmy Garoppolo the thumb. We saw the

734
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 3: slow start last week. It seemed like he took a

735
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 3: shot at halftime and kind of cleared up later. Maybe

736
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 3: gets that early, but then does he slow down late.

737
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 3: I just I could see a lot of ways where

738
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 3: we just don't get a ton of scoring in this one,

739
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: we get a sloppy football game. I kind of wouldn't

740
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 3: be too surprised here too. I'm excited for this game.

741
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 3: It's the one non rematch of the weekend. I wouldn't

742
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 3: be shocked to see one team either side just dominate

743
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 3: the game and get like a fourteen point win or something.

744
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: So that'd be another way to go under if one

745
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 3: team just kind of doesn't show up and doesn't get

746
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 3: a ton of points. So I lean under. I like Niners.

747
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 3: I want the three and a half. If I can

748
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 3: get about the three, I like the Niners a lot more.

749
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 3: At three or less, I still like them, but I

750
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 3: think a lot of the value has gone done.

751
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could definitely see that. I think one of

752
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,399
Speaker 2: the things you mentioned was the under, and I think

753
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 2: that's interesting just because you have two teams who are

754
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: going to run the ball so heavily, and we know

755
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers are going to soak up a

756
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: lot of clock. Like even when you look at the

757
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 2: second half of that at forty nine Ers Rams game,

758
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 2: it felt like the Rams barely had the ball, and

759
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: I can easily see that happening to the Cowboys, and

760
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: we all know the Cowboys want to establish the run.

761
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: If the forty nine Ers go up two touchdowns, this

762
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 2: game's going over them because we know that the Cowboys

763
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 2: can get aggressive. I don't really have the fear of

764
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: one team really going up a couple of touchdowns, but

765
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: I think when you have a team going up a

766
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: couple of touchdowns, that's when you see, all right, we

767
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 2: got to air it out. And thing I really want

768
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: with this Cowboys team because they're proven. I mean, you're

769
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: not exactly Brandon Day, but Mike McCarthy is going forward

770
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: or four down at this point. So yeah, I do

771
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: agree with the undernough just because of the pace of

772
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 2: the game and how these teams are going to caught

773
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 2: a game.

774
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 3: Well, we are mostly on the same sides here, I

775
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 3: think on all four games, so far. Let's hear our

776
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 3: last one here. Easily the least interesting game of the

777
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 3: week again, Steelers Chiefs in Kansas City. We literally just

778
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 3: saw this game less than a month ago. We didn't

779
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 3: need to see it again. It was thirty six ten

780
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: a month ago, and it wasn't that close. It's thirty

781
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 3: nothing mid third quarter. At that point, Chiefs were up

782
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 3: three hundred and eighty yards to one hundred and twenty three. Like,

783
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: these teams are not just in different weight classes, they're

784
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 3: playing different sports right now. Roethlisberger can barely like first

785
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 3: and ten is a hail Mary spot for Ben Like

786
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 3: you can't even get it to the ten yards down

787
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: the field if check down city these little dump offs

788
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 3: over the middle where the Chiefs defend really well. The

789
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: line is banged up. Najie Harris got banged up last week.

790
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 3: Didn't get it ton of carriers. I'm a little concerned there.

791
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 3: I don't know that the Chiefs are this offensive juggernaut

792
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 3: like we knew in the past, but their defense, I think,

793
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 3: is going to get the job done here too. I

794
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: don't see the Steelers having a big chance. The Chiefs

795
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 3: are minus twelve and a half, so it's a big line,

796
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 3: but I like the Chiefs anyway.

797
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: The Chiefs dominated this team a couple of weeks ago,

798
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 2: thirty six to ten. Mahomes twenty three or thirty two

799
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 2: hundred fifty eight yards, three touchdowns, and they didn't have

800
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 2: Travis Kelce, while Tyreek Hill was just blanketed by the

801
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: Stiller's secondary. Like Mahomes is just good enough to get

802
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 2: the ball to everybody else Byron Pringle cass six passes

803
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 2: for seventy five yards, two touchdowns. We know Hill and

804
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: Kelsey are a little banged up this week, but really

805
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: what it comes down to is what is the Pittsburgh

806
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: offense going to do. I don't think they're going to

807
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 2: do very much. Obviously, they're twenty thirty each. Yeah, twenty

808
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 2: thirty EPA play big bitch. It looks like it's time

809
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 2: for him to go home and be a family man.

810
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 2: This is the match that nobody wants to see. But

811
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 2: from a wagering perspective, I'm wondering if this is too

812
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: many points because Pittsburgh does have a solid defense. When

813
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 2: the Chiefs aren't playing a non Raiders team, they're not

814
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 2: scoring very heavily. So Tomlin in these spots as an underdog,

815
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 2: He's forty five to twenty three and two. I'm not

816
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 2: sure if I can do it, but I think if

817
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: this line gets up to fourteen, I think you kind

818
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 2: of got to have an appetite for the Stellers. I'm

819
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: not gonna do it, but there has been some sharper

820
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: money on the Stellers.

821
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, I've won a ton of money on the

822
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 3: Steelers this year playing that Tomlin underdog spot. Like I

823
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 3: feel like every single week I'm on here talking about

824
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 3: Tomlin underdog. The thing is, though, if you take that

825
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 3: stat that you said it, it's totally right. But if

826
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 3: you look at the splits way better when the Steelers

827
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 3: are at home, and way better when it's a one

828
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: score game. This is the biggest underdog spot for Tomlin

829
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: or Big Ben in their career. So this I just

830
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 3: I don't know that that number works, you know, as

831
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 3: much as that to the Steelers an underdog all season.

832
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 3: When I got to this game a month ago, I

833
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 3: threw it out and took the Chiefs anyway, because it's

834
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 3: just it's a mismatch. They're just not playing the same

835
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 3: sport right now. Even like the way the Steelers made

836
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 3: the playoffs again. Like you said, I kind of wish

837
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 3: for Steelers fans that that field goal on Sunday night

838
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 3: had not gone in and that the Steelers could have

839
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 3: just had it right there ready for a deep playoff run,

840
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 3: and we just didn't get our chance. I feel like

841
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 3: that had been a much better ending. The Steelers beat

842
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 3: the Browns and the Ravens, who are not good, both

843
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: teams just like in shambles at the end of the season,

844
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 3: and they got a Jacksonville and over Indianapolis, and they

845
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 3: got that Raiders escape just to get here, the worst

846
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 3: team in the playoffs. We said this before. I got

847
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 3: Dann Reno Vibes here sixty two to seven against Jacksonville

848
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: his last time we saw him playing. We saw Drew

849
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: Brees last year. I think they're gonna the Chiefs are

850
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 3: gonna put big Ben and mothballs, and I think the

851
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 3: Steelers fans are gonna wish that that game end and

852
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,720
Speaker 3: a tie the other night. I think it gets ugly,

853
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: and even I agree that it's getting to be a

854
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 3: lot of points if it gets the fourteen. I'm still

855
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 3: not on Pittsburgh. Maybe I back off with playing the

856
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs then, but I'm not gonna switch sides because even

857
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: if it's close late, we know they're gonna try and

858
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 3: Big Ben at any given moment is one three are

859
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 3: checkdown pick six away from the Chiefs covering anyway, even

860
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 3: if they kind of struggled the whole game. Double digit

861
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 3: favorites in the wildcard round since two thousand and three,

862
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 3: five and zero, we don't get a ton of them

863
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 3: because again, normally, if you're as good as the Chiefs are,

864
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 3: you're on a bye week. So what we have here

865
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: is a team that should be on a buye week

866
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 3: as a two seed, but the playoff format changed, and

867
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 3: a team that's a seventh seed and shouldn't be in

868
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 3: the playoffs at all, but the playoff format changed. So

869
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 3: neither one of these teams would be playing this week.

870
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 3: One should be resting for real games. One should be

871
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 3: getting Ben's name signed on the retirement paper. Get him

872
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 3: a nice you know, get him a good plan. Make

873
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 3: sure we get him a nice spot in a nursing home,

874
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 3: because I think the Chiefs are gonna send him there.

875
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 2: I wonder if this is the Swiss book saying, look,

876
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 2: we don't want you to count a chief We don't

877
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 2: I think it feels like everybody and their mother would

878
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 2: bet the Chiefs, so it's just like, maybe this is

879
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 2: a trap, and I think I'm looking at it now.

880
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 2: The only game I can actually remember where a double

881
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 2: digit dog is actually covered was the Mark downt Leinsk

882
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: game with the earthquake.

883
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,720
Speaker 3: I think a home game too, and that was a home.

884
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 2: Game, and that was Saints versus the Seahawks. That's the

885
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 2: only one I could think of off the top. And

886
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 2: following week they got torched by the Bears. So this

887
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: just doesn't happen very often.

888
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I honestly I wondered what this line would open,

889
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 3: as I thought it might be like a ten and

890
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 3: a half or something, and I was gonna be ready

891
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 3: to just pound the Chiefs then. And you're right then

892
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 3: when it's a twelve or thirteen, thirteen and a half

893
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 3: and you're like, ooh, oh, that is a lot of points.

894
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 3: And I think it's the same thing. I think the

895
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 3: books knew if they put this at ten or ten

896
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: and a half, it was just going to be a

897
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 3: landslide of Chiefs money. I think it's just high enough

898
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 3: to try to prevent that a little bit.

899
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 2: But I actually think there might be some value on

900
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: a Steller's team total. I think the team total is

901
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: sixteen and a half. The Stills for seventeen points then

902
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: probably cover.

903
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: If they go over on the team total, then they

904
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 3: probably cover. So if we think that the Steelers are

905
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,280
Speaker 3: gonna not be able to cover, then there's also value

906
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: on the team unders that you're saying, Yeah.

907
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 2: I think that's where that to me, that seems like

908
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: a great play. It's just because we know the Steelers

909
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 2: defense is going to be able to slow down my

910
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 2: homes a little bit.

911
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, what about too? I know this is not a

912
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: typical teaser spot for you, so I want your opinion

913
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: on it. So at twelve and a half, you tease

914
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 3: that six points you get under a touchdown, Now that

915
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 3: you's just got to win by a touchdown, would you

916
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:39,760
Speaker 3: play that or is this just not a good teaser

917
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 3: number for you?

918
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 2: I just can't do it, especially with the low total,

919
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 2: Like the total is only forty six and a half,

920
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 2: So I don't think you're leaving yourself a huge margin

921
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 2: to air.

922
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I get it, I'm not quite sway I like it.

923
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: So let's get through our best bets here. We covered

924
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:58,439
Speaker 3: every game again, we'll do Rams Cardinals on Sunday night

925
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 3: a Monday morning for you as you listen. And so

926
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 3: one of my best bets I like the Bucks Chiefs teaser.

927
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 3: I like Bucks and Chiefs both just playing the number.

928
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 3: So I might actually just parlay the two of them

929
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 3: anyways and just see if I can just get two

930
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: better teams taking care of business against two teams I

931
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 3: really shouldn't be here, but I think the Teaser Box

932
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 3: to win by field goal, Chiefs to win by a touchdown.

933
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,359
Speaker 3: I just really have a hard time figuring out how

934
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: did that not happen? Like, what is the diagnosis of

935
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: how we didn't get there? I have a hard time

936
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 3: with it. I like the Patriots to win by one

937
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 3: to six plus forty that we mentioned, and I love

938
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 3: the Josh Allen thirty nine and a half rushing yards over.

939
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 3: Those are probably my favorite bets of the weekend. I

940
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,919
Speaker 3: think I know your favorite bet, but what's your best

941
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 3: bet from wildcun round.

942
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 2: I'm going with the forty nine ers plus three plus

943
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 2: three and a half money line. It's an open order

944
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 2: for me. It's my favorite pick of the week personally,

945
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 2: I just I don't believe in this Cowboys team. Look

946
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: at the wins and losses. They lost to a bad

947
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos team. They only were able to put non

948
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: points against the Chiefs. They got torch by the Raiders.

949
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 2: Over the second half of the year, who have they beat?

950
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 2: They beat the Saints, they beat the Washington football team,

951
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 2: the Giants, the Washington football team again. They lost to

952
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 2: a Cardinals team who had lost three in a row,

953
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 2: and then they beat the Eagles practice squad. So it's

954
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 2: like nothing that they did for this whole second half

955
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 2: of the year has been encouraging. I just think they

956
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 2: played a week schedule. I know this is my team

957
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 2: and I would love for them to win, but I'm

958
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 2: going to my bank roll. I think the fort nine

959
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 2: ers win is I know Brandon has a future on

960
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: the San Francisco forty nine ers. I may actually add

961
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: something to this, but I think at this point I'm

962
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 2: just gonna roll it over depending on the matchup. But

963
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 2: this week I'm taking Fortnite money line.

964
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the number dropped a lot on that one, so

965
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: I love the value we had from last week before

966
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 3: they had secured the playoffs spot. I agree rolling it over.

967
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 3: It might be the better play on the Niners. Now

968
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 3: you know they're gonna be a big dog in Green

969
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 3: Bay if they win the Swan and so get a

970
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 3: good number there too. You mentioned the future is left

971
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 3: to wrap up here with our look ahead.

972
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 1: Hot Rocky ice rights ice cream.

973
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 3: So for look ahead, what we're gonna do the rest

974
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 3: of the season. Each Friday, We're gonna do a one

975
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 3: pick each on the look ahead. And rather than looking

976
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:09,959
Speaker 3: ahead to a next game we don't have them yet,

977
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 3: We're gonna look ahead and grab our best future right then.

978
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 3: If you're a fresh better and want your best future,

979
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: right then, to win the super Bowl or conference? What's

980
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 3: your favorite play? So it is the Niners future your

981
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 3: favorite or what's your future? Look at it here, I'm

982
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: gonna you go we I'm gonna let you go further

983
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 3: now I'm gonna get them all right, So I've got

984
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 3: Niners in my portfolio. I don't love the number right now.

985
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 3: I think numbers lost all the value. I mentioned the

986
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 3: Patriots plus one thousand to win the AFC and made

987
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 3: their case a little bit in their game. But a

988
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 3: lot of times I get stuck playing these futures where

989
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 3: the number was too long and I look really good

990
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: and it gets shorter down to the plus four hundred,

991
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 3: and then I lose anyway. So I'm gonna take a

992
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,800
Speaker 3: future that I think actually has a real chance of winning.

993
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the Bucks plus eight hundred to win

994
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. I see the numbers too long. I

995
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 3: would make it around plus five point fifty. So I

996
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 3: liked how the schedule shapes up a lot here. So

997
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 3: if we talked about the Bucks, I think that they

998
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 3: dominate the Eagles, so it's as close as you can

999
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 3: get to a bye week spot other than the Chiefs

1000
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 3: playing the Steelers. And then after that we like the

1001
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 3: Niners against the Cowboys. If the Niners win, they go

1002
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: to Green Bay. And now Tampa gets to play the

1003
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 3: Rams or the Cardinals, and we both are ready to

1004
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 3: fade those teams. Whoever wins that one. I will not

1005
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: like that team on the road in Tampa against a

1006
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 3: defending Superowl champion. So suddenly you get the teams that

1007
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 3: the Bucks have a harder time with or on the

1008
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 3: other half of the bracket. In that case, the Bucks

1009
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 3: roster is loaded, their guys are getting healthy enough they

1010
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 3: basically have to take a month off. At this point.

1011
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 3: If we get to the Super Bowl, and the Bucks

1012
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 3: are favored in any matchup there. We saw them beat

1013
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 3: the Chiefs last year. I like them against any other team.

1014
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: I think they're favored in any game unless they have

1015
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 3: to go to Green Bay. I don't love Tom Brady

1016
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,439
Speaker 3: in the cold in that spot, but I don't mind

1017
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 3: them against the Packers. Brady's basically been a coin flip

1018
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: to make the Super Bowl the last two decades so,

1019
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 3: but this numbers has gotten too long for me, and

1020
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 3: I think they have a real chance. They'd be my

1021
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 3: third favorite to win the super Bowl right now, So

1022
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: plus eight hundred, that's my look. I had a future

1023
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 3: effect right now.

1024
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Chiefs, and I think

1025
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: Betton GM has the Chiefs at plus five hundred actually

1026
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 2: took them. We're doing a Future's draft with the Actually

1027
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 2: Network and you'll see that are coming out soon. But

1028
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: when I look at the Chiefs, I actually have them

1029
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 2: power rated third. And a big part of the reason

1030
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: why I like the Chiefs at plus five hundred is

1031
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: because they're essentially getting a bye week against the Pittsburgh Stillers.

1032
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 2: I know there's no such thing as a bye week,

1033
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 2: and you still got to go out there and beat

1034
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 2: these guys. But this is as close to an easy

1035
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: victory as you're gonna get in the first round of

1036
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 2: the playoffs, Whereas just you look at the other teams,

1037
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 2: we get an upset between the Bills and the Patriots.

1038
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 2: We're looking at the Chiefs going into Tennessee. There's not

1039
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 2: too many people out here who would have Tennessee home

1040
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 2: favorites over the Chiefs. So you run the risk of

1041
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and the Bills winning. And maybe you have

1042
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 2: the Bengals or the Raiders going to Tennessee and then

1043
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 2: you have a matchup between the Chiefs and the Bill,

1044
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 2: but the Chiefs will still be home favorites over the

1045
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: Bills in that matchup. So I don't believe this is

1046
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 2: the same Chiefs team that we saw get dominated by

1047
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 2: the Bills earlier this year. I think this Chiefs office

1048
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,760
Speaker 2: has gotten better. So you're looking at a team who's

1049
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 2: going to be favorite in any round of the playoffs

1050
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: outside of the Super Bowl. So I think the Chiefs

1051
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 2: have value plus five hundred.

1052
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. There to me are four teams

1053
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 3: with positive Super Bowl value right now, and it's the

1054
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,760
Speaker 3: three I mentioned, and then the Chiefs are the other one.

1055
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,359
Speaker 3: We kind of made a similar case. We took both

1056
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 3: of us. Took the two seed that's been the favorite

1057
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 3: all year along basically the loaded talented teams, and there

1058
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 3: are two seeds that gets essentially a bye week by

1059
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 3: facing the easiest opponent possible. I like two about the Chiefs. Yeah,

1060
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 3: the way that the schedule breaks for them. The two

1061
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: teams that I would be hesitant picking any Chiefs game

1062
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 3: at least would make me really think about it is

1063
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 3: the Bills and the Patriots, and they're going to knock

1064
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 3: each other out. One of them is out after this week,

1065
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 3: and if it's the Patriots that win, then the Bills

1066
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 3: are out and that removes that one the Chiefs might

1067
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 3: have to play either one of them. The Patriots cluse

1068
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 3: on the road, and the Chiefs just get, you know,

1069
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,479
Speaker 3: a path where they might not even face a team

1070
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:28,240
Speaker 3: top half of the league in Dpowa, you know, before

1071
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:31,240
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. And so yeah, I think the schedule

1072
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 3: broke really well for them, the way that the bracket

1073
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 3: came out. I think it's a very similar argument we

1074
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 3: made for both sides. After all that, after eighteen weeks

1075
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 3: of games, after all the crazy upsets where do we

1076
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 3: come back to Chiefs Bucks, the same teams that we

1077
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 3: all thought coming into the season, so we'll see. I

1078
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 3: agree the number has gotten too long on both of them,

1079
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,839
Speaker 3: so I think it's a good spot for each Sunday night,

1080
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 3: we'll wrap up all five games, talk what we saw.

1081
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 3: We'll be talking about new matchups already, at least a

1082
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,399
Speaker 3: few of them will be. Sad will preview the Monday game,

1083
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 3: and then of course Stucking Raybaon will do their six

1084
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: pack and hit all the games for that week, and

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00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 3: Raheem and I'll be back next Friday as well and

1086
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 3: talk about all four games for division weekend. Don't forget

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00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 3: if you haven't yet, please rate and review the podcast

1088
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 3: on Apple and Spotify. Thank us O. We're over one

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00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:20,720
Speaker 3: hundred views on there now, so give us those five stars.

1090
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 3: Give us the feedback. Don't free to listen to Buckets

1091
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 3: our NBA podcast. Raheem and I are on there with

1092
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,240
Speaker 3: a few other guys and give you lots of NBA

1093
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 3: action day after day going forward. Coreen Palmer, I'm Brandon Anderson,

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00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,839
Speaker 3: and this has been the Action Hour podcast. Enjoy your

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00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 3: weekend and we will see you in the playoffs.