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Speaker 2: Well, day one the government shutdown, Day one of the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: As well, and it's been an interesting one.
Speaker 2: How long is it going to happen? How long is
Speaker 2: it going to go on?
Speaker 4: I think it's a big question, right and I think
Speaker 4: the duration of this shutdown, you know, that is going
Speaker 4: to be a big deal in terms of the impact
Speaker 4: we will certainly see. And I think we're all waiting
Speaker 4: and watching because the concerns have been whether or not
Speaker 4: we start to see workers being cut as the President
Speaker 4: has said he would do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the President well rather, White House Judge Director Russell
Speaker 2: Vote is planning to swiftly dismiss federal workers, with layoffs
Speaker 2: to happen within two days imminent very soon. According to
Speaker 2: White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, We're going to continue
Speaker 2: to bring you the latest from Washington, DC, and that
Speaker 2: includes checking in with Nathan Dean. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior
Speaker 2: policy analysts. He joins us from the nation's capital. Nathan,
Speaker 2: you were I don't remember how optimistic you were yesterday.
Speaker 2: To be honest, I have to be honest with you.
Speaker 2: I feel like you were optimistic in the early part
Speaker 2: of the day, and then in the later part of
Speaker 2: the day you got less and less optimistic. And certainly
Speaker 2: what ended up happening was the government did shut down.
Speaker 2: Is there any is the daylight decreasing between Republicans and
Speaker 2: Democrats right now.
Speaker 5: At the leadership level.
Speaker 6: Look, they're both in the pasture right now where they're
Speaker 6: trying to blame the other. And yesterday it was two
Speaker 6: forty one when I told my first client that I
Speaker 6: thought it was going to shut down. But I still
Speaker 6: feel that it's a little optimistic to say that we
Speaker 6: think that this shutdown is going to end probably within
Speaker 6: ten days. Now polymarket has it eleven point five days,
Speaker 6: So that's the general can you know consensus out there,
Speaker 6: But we did see the first time today some bipartisan senators,
Speaker 6: not at the leadership level, but at the working level.
Speaker 6: I would call it gag on the Senate floor to
Speaker 6: potentially talk about a short term CR combined with maybe
Speaker 6: some type of effort on Obamacare subsidies. Now they left
Speaker 6: for today, they're out for Yamkapor. They won't come back
Speaker 6: until Friday. I think that you're going to see more
Speaker 6: political rhetoric take place on Friday, and you're not going
Speaker 6: to see serious negotiations till over the weekend, because I
Speaker 6: remember the House Republicans are still aren't here.
Speaker 5: They come back next week.
Speaker 6: But all that has to happen and keep the government
Speaker 6: open is five Democrats need to go and support this.
Speaker 6: Because yesterday's vote three Democrats or two Democrats and an
Speaker 6: independent that caucuses with the Democrats ended up voting for this.
Speaker 6: So Senator Schumer only has a few more days until
Speaker 6: I think the pressure for more Democrats will be to
Speaker 6: go and say we're going to reopen the government.
Speaker 3: You mentioned CR. Of course that's a continuing resolution. Nathan.
Speaker 3: What I'm wondering is are the democrats?
Speaker 4: I mean, what are people saying or what do you
Speaker 4: think as you watch the government whether it would have
Speaker 4: been democrats or Republicans. Are democrats in this case in
Speaker 4: this instance kind of right to put their foot down
Speaker 4: on an issue that's very important to their voters or
Speaker 4: their constituents in terms of healthcare. And if they don't
Speaker 4: put their foot down and they say, all right, let's
Speaker 4: not shut down the government, let it go, you guys
Speaker 4: say you'll talk to us. Are they silly in not
Speaker 4: kind of getting a deal or you know beforehand, you know,
Speaker 4: getting some kind of commitment. So an issue that they
Speaker 4: say is very important to their American voters. And let's
Speaker 4: remember go back to the election. You know, half voted
Speaker 4: for the president are a little bit more than half,
Speaker 4: right if you look at the popular vote, and the
Speaker 4: other half did not.
Speaker 6: You know, shutdowns occur when both parties think that it's
Speaker 6: politically advantageous for to shut down to occur. And I
Speaker 6: think that's the situation we're still in. There's a lot
Speaker 6: of folks that blame Republicans for this. There are a
Speaker 6: lot of folks that blame Democrats for this. But from
Speaker 6: the democratics perspective, there were two goals I think going
Speaker 6: into the shutdown. One was for Senator Schumer to rally
Speaker 6: the troops to be seen fighting President Trump, and the
Speaker 6: second was to bring attention to the issue of the
Speaker 6: Obamacare subsidies that expire at the end of the year. Now,
Speaker 6: Senator thun has said that there's going to be no
Speaker 6: negotiation on Obamacare subsidies, at least resolving that issue while
Speaker 6: the government is shut down, and I believe him on that.
Speaker 6: But the Democrats have achieved their first goal, or will
Speaker 6: within a few days of being seen as combating President Trump.
Speaker 6: The challenge for Senator Schumer at this point is what
Speaker 6: is the exit strategy? How do we get out of
Speaker 6: this government shutdown? And that's why I think that sometime
Speaker 6: next week you will see, like in an unofficial agreement,
Speaker 6: unofficial handshake, if you will, that there will be an
Speaker 6: effort to deal with these Obamacare subsidies. Because I think
Speaker 6: there are some folks in the Republican Party, President Trump included,
Speaker 6: who recognize that it may not be beneficial in an
Speaker 6: election year for Obamacare subsidies to go up for average Americans.
Speaker 6: But let's also remember that the bulk of the Republican
Speaker 6: Party most likely wants this to go away. So even
Speaker 6: if there is an agreement that says we're going to
Speaker 6: kick the candidate till November, these shutdown fights are going
Speaker 6: to continue. Probably into the beginning of next year.
Speaker 2: He is into the beginning of next year. Does it
Speaker 2: affect the mid terms? I was talking with some colleagues
Speaker 2: earlier today, and it seems like voters, like anecdotally, they
Speaker 2: don't really remember shutdowns.
Speaker 6: Now, they don't, especially not this far out from November.
Speaker 6: I mean, look, it's October first, and we have a
Speaker 6: year and some change until the midterms. I don't know
Speaker 6: many people are going to go into the voting booth
Speaker 6: and say, hey, remember what happened back in October of
Speaker 6: last year, And remember the Tea Party somewhat did this
Speaker 6: back in twenty thirteen, and the Republicans ultimately ended up
Speaker 6: gaining nine seats in the following midterm election of the
Speaker 6: following year.
Speaker 5: But I will say is.
Speaker 6: That it's a certainly about momentum. And the Democrats right
Speaker 6: now have a very poor approval rating, It's around thirty percent.
Speaker 6: And so from the Democratic perspective, why don't we shut
Speaker 6: this down? Why don't we rally the troops and rally
Speaker 6: the progressive support. Let's support our base, and then we'll
Speaker 6: spend the next year in change actually trying to build
Speaker 6: some momentum.
Speaker 5: So I can see the case for.
Speaker 6: Why the Democrats would want to shut the government down
Speaker 6: because there is plenty of time for them to come
Speaker 6: back and get messaging onto other issues.
Speaker 4: Hey, Nathan, what about you know President jd Vance's downplay
Speaker 4: plans to use the shutdown to slash services. He says
Speaker 4: Republicans don't want to lay anybody off, and that Democrats
Speaker 4: would be held responsible for any negative consequences of the
Speaker 4: government closure. President Trump has come out, He's been very
Speaker 4: clear right talking about, you know, the ability or you know,
Speaker 4: to cut some of the federal government jobs. Russell Vote
Speaker 4: has certainly we've seen that as well. So are we
Speaker 4: expecting that to happen? And if it does happen, you
Speaker 4: know who is responsible for that.
Speaker 5: So I think you're going to see signs of that.
Speaker 6: You know, Russell Vote even said just in a House
Speaker 6: Republican caucus earlier today that layoffs are and I'm paraphrasing
Speaker 6: your imminent in the next day or two. I think
Speaker 6: there's some probably some truth behind that. You would also
Speaker 6: see additional cancelation of projects. The eighteen billion dollars the
Speaker 6: earmarked for those who in New York City in terms
Speaker 6: of infrastructure projects, but ultimately it's going to be President
Speaker 6: Trump that makes this decision. And I think that President
Speaker 6: Trump realizes that widespread layoffs of government workers, it's such
Speaker 6: which a broad nature, is not going to be popular
Speaker 6: with the American populace. You know, Joe Matthew in Balance
Speaker 6: of Power has had several Republicans on this week where
Speaker 6: they've asked President Trump to bring a scalpel to this
Speaker 6: as opposed to a sledgehammer. So you'll probably see a
Speaker 6: notifiaications go out and you'll probably see signs. But as
Speaker 6: of right now, I still think it's political posturing not
Speaker 6: so much actually a real layoff threat. But again, time
Speaker 6: may change, and if this is the if it does happen,
Speaker 6: I think it actually could push parties further apart and
Speaker 6: potentially extend the shutdown even long.
Speaker 2: Well, we did a deep dive yesterday, as you know,
Speaker 2: on Russell vote and his role at OMB and the
Speaker 2: DNA that he brings to this role. Does he take
Speaker 2: a scalpel when it comes to laying off federal workers?
Speaker 5: Not if he gets his wish.
Speaker 6: I mean, obviously this goes back to Project twenty twenty
Speaker 6: five and this idea that where the government is extremely bloated.
Speaker 5: And you know, former.
Speaker 6: OMB director mcmulvaney was on Balance of Power a couple
Speaker 6: of weeks ago, and he was jubilant and saying, look this,
Speaker 6: I'm excited for RUSS vote because you're going to be
Speaker 6: able to dismantle a lot of apparatus of the government.
Speaker 6: I'm paraphrasing his works there. But I will say is
Speaker 6: that it's not easy to do. Both sides will often
Speaker 6: come to Washington and saying, look, there's bloat.
Speaker 5: There are things that we need to cut.
Speaker 6: But it's not easy to do so because there are
Speaker 6: things like regulations and statues and laws. And if you
Speaker 6: end up cutting folks like we saw what happened with
Speaker 6: Doge earlier this year, and you break the law, or
Speaker 6: at least you're breaking regulations, or you're breaking what the
Speaker 6: American people want.
Speaker 5: You to do, you have to end up hiring them back.
Speaker 4: Hey, Nathan, really quickly fifteen seconds. I mean, who is
Speaker 4: President Trump listening to in all of this?
Speaker 5: Jd.
Speaker 4: Vance was very much out front and center and very
Speaker 4: much in command earlier today talking about the shutdown. This
Speaker 4: is RUSS vote. Just got about ten seconds. Who is
Speaker 4: the president listening to?
Speaker 6: Very quickly I think the President is listening to himself,
Speaker 6: and I think the President's going to make the decision
Speaker 6: that he wants to make.
Speaker 4: All right, kind to leave it there, you rock. Nathan Dean,
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst jointing US from Washington, DC.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
Speaker 2: up this.
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Speaker 4: Bahrain has emerged as a key economic and security partner
Speaker 4: for Washington, hosting several US military assets, including the US
Speaker 4: Navy's fifth Fleet and the Branch's Central Command. And you
Speaker 4: might recall over this past summer a meeting at the
Speaker 4: White House where Bahrain's Crown prints pledged seventeen billion dollars
Speaker 4: worth of investments in the United States. While our next
Speaker 4: guest is focusing on bringing investments into Bahrain. Joining us
Speaker 4: is her Excellency nor Bent al al Kulaif.
Speaker 3: She is CEO of the Bahrain.
Speaker 4: Economic Development Board and also the Kingdom's Minister of Sustainable Development.
Speaker 4: She is in our Bloomberg News La Bureau. I'm so delighted,
Speaker 4: your excellency that we could spend some time with you.
Speaker 4: Bloomberg has reported a lot about the Middle East at large,
Speaker 4: how it's transitioning, taking moves to broaden out the region's economy,
Speaker 4: making investments in sports, tourism, technology, and a lot more.
Speaker 4: Tell us about for Bahrain, about attracting investments in the
Speaker 4: digital and tech world, your mission, who has invested so far,
Speaker 4: give us some size and scope if you would.
Speaker 7: Absolutely. First of all, Carol's exciting to be with you
Speaker 7: today and looking forward to the conversation as well. So
Speaker 7: thank you so much for hosting me today. And I
Speaker 7: always find it very helpful to start with maybe a
Speaker 7: thirty second elevator pitch about beading. For those that are
Speaker 7: not familiar with the country. Bahrain is a small island
Speaker 7: part of the Golf Corporation Council. As a country, historically
Speaker 7: it's been a strategic maritime state, so it was always
Speaker 7: considered as a transit, as a hub, as a gateway
Speaker 7: to the region and a transit for trade growing east
Speaker 7: and west. And that's also started because of the perling
Speaker 7: industry in Bahrain. But fast forward till today, we still
Speaker 7: readin that role and that really underpins our ethos or
Speaker 7: our DNA of being business friendly and we need to
Speaker 7: cut our economy today people think Bahrain it's an oil
Speaker 7: exported country. In reality and on the ground, our GDP
Speaker 7: is eighty five percent non oil. Financial services sector is
Speaker 7: the largest contributor to our economy, followed by manufacturing. But
Speaker 7: our other strategic sectors that we focus on our tourism, logistics, technology,
Speaker 7: but also we have the education and the healthcare. So
Speaker 7: you can see that diversification was achieved through attracting investment
Speaker 7: into the country, being very open and allowing investors to
Speaker 7: come and take advantage of the region and what's happening,
Speaker 7: and using Bahrain as their testing ground as their base.
Speaker 7: So it's been really interesting times, especially with the growth
Speaker 7: that is happening in the region at the moment.
Speaker 2: Well, you're in our Los Angeles Bureau now ostensibly in
Speaker 2: Los Angeles to help attract investment to the country. Can
Speaker 2: you talk a little bit about who you're meeting with
Speaker 2: the type of investment that you're hoping to attract.
Speaker 7: It's been a variety actually of companies and sectors that
Speaker 7: we've had conversations with, and I have to say it's
Speaker 7: been very, very interesting. We've always in Bahrain admired specifically
Speaker 7: if the technology sector of the US and having direct
Speaker 7: conversations with theirs, innovators, with the founders or the people
Speaker 7: that are really close to not just what's happening at
Speaker 7: the moment and what consumers have, but really also what
Speaker 7: is expected to come going forward. So a lot of
Speaker 7: discussions about technology and how Batratan can support that, but
Speaker 7: also we've had discussions on manufacturing. We've had discussions even
Speaker 7: on the film industry, and we do that. And the
Speaker 7: way we look at Bahrain and that we were able
Speaker 7: to talk about those different industries is because when we
Speaker 7: assess our market in Bahrain, we look at various things.
Speaker 7: We look at what is the infrastructure that I have
Speaker 7: at the moment, what are the regulations that I have,
Speaker 7: what is the human capital that I have? And how
Speaker 7: can that serve international companies in various sectors is and
Speaker 7: what would be beneficial for them to come and take
Speaker 7: advantage of the business environment.
Speaker 2: Is it a difficult thing to do in a world
Speaker 2: that is increasingly going I don't want to say the
Speaker 2: world's going America first, but countries are increasingly looking inward.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the film industry and meetings that you're having
Speaker 2: out there. Just this week, the President said he's imposing
Speaker 2: a one hundred percent tariff on foreign made movies. How
Speaker 2: much more difficult does that make your job trying to
Speaker 2: attract those folks to Bahrain.
Speaker 7: Look, we acknowledge and we see the President Trump is
Speaker 7: doing in terms of attracting more local investments. And actually,
Speaker 7: if you look at the region and Betting and the
Speaker 7: rest of the GCC, we actually mirror that sentiment. A
Speaker 7: lot of the countries are trying to bring in investments
Speaker 7: into the region. But we also believe it's not as
Speaker 7: zero sum game. Some companies would need to have presence
Speaker 7: in both regions, not necessarily just one, in order to
Speaker 7: achieve the results that they want, even locally here in
Speaker 7: the US, and we're talking to some of those companies
Speaker 7: that need the input. Other companies actually need to be
Speaker 7: closer by nature to their consumers, and giving the growth
Speaker 7: in the demand and the growth in the consumer base
Speaker 7: in the Middle East and specifically the GCC, a lot
Speaker 7: of the companies would need that presence closer to the consumer.
Speaker 7: So we're having a lot of conversations with companies about that,
Speaker 7: but we very much understand what is happening here in
Speaker 7: the US, and we try to do our best to
Speaker 7: support those companies. The first thing we do with companies
Speaker 7: is ask what are your growth plans, what are your strategies,
Speaker 7: how can we support you in the region, and what
Speaker 7: can Barin do for you, Because we honestly believe that
Speaker 7: their success means our success. So their success in the
Speaker 7: region means they will stay here for the foreseeable future,
Speaker 7: which means they've become part of our ecosystem and part
Speaker 7: of our economic development.
Speaker 4: Your excellency, I'm curious to what's the competitive landscape as
Speaker 4: you buy for investments in capital. I mean, yes, your
Speaker 4: country versus other Golf nations, they've got similar ambitions we
Speaker 4: report about all the time.
Speaker 3: So what is that competitive landscape like?
Speaker 7: First of all, it's absolutely exciting to see all of
Speaker 7: the countries having their Vision twenty thirties, Virgin twenty fifties,
Speaker 7: really focusing on economic development, and the region really has
Speaker 7: complementary economies, certainly for betraying the way we see ourselves
Speaker 7: and view ourselves. It's economy that complements what is happening
Speaker 7: in the rest of the region. We very much look
Speaker 7: at what's happening and we invite companies to come and
Speaker 7: use Bahrain as a base to test those concepts and
Speaker 7: those ideas that they have. Again, it's a small country,
Speaker 7: you can do our country wide roll out really easily.
Speaker 7: But also we always look at our competitive advantage. For US,
Speaker 7: cost competitiveness is really important. We continue to monitor how
Speaker 7: much it costs not just to set up your business,
Speaker 7: but also for your moving people internationally, how much does
Speaker 7: it cost for them to live there, to put their
Speaker 7: kids in school, to use the health system and Bahrain.
Speaker 7: The other thing that we have is connectivity. So speaking
Speaker 7: of the US, we have a free trade agreement with
Speaker 7: the US. We have this a seput agreement, but also
Speaker 7: we have free trade agreements and investment agreements with about
Speaker 7: thirty percent of the world GDP because as a small country,
Speaker 7: we have to make sure that companies can reach wider
Speaker 7: consumer base. But we also what's really important for US
Speaker 7: is that we work very closely with the private sector.
Speaker 7: So the government and the private sector works as one
Speaker 7: unit in Bahtray and we have that ethos off the
Speaker 7: team betraying concept. And as I as I said, we
Speaker 7: always start with what do you need and how can
Speaker 7: I support you? And we have examples of where we've
Speaker 7: introduced a new legislation or a new regulation in response
Speaker 7: or request by the private sector. And maybe AWS is
Speaker 7: a great example in that case because they've said, what
Speaker 7: can you do for us in terms of the regulation,
Speaker 7: and we said, how about data jurisdiction law where the
Speaker 7: data hosted and behraanustrated as an embassy, so me as
Speaker 7: a better I cannot access that data and it actually
Speaker 7: could only be accessed by a US court request.
Speaker 2: You mentioned Amazon, and I'm looking at a report coming
Speaker 2: from mortor Intelligence talks about some of the big tech
Speaker 2: companies in Bahrain. Oracle, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft are among them.
Speaker 2: Here in the US, we've been thinking a lot about
Speaker 2: immigration with regard to the H one B visa issues
Speaker 2: that have come up in recent weeks and the confusion
Speaker 2: here in the US about that, and I think one
Speaker 2: piece of the conversation that has been lost is certainly
Speaker 2: the US wants to make sure that it employees or
Speaker 2: that companies are paying for it. Sounds like paying for
Speaker 2: these visas. Is there an opportunity for Bahrain to come
Speaker 2: in and take some of that talent that could work
Speaker 2: at a US tech company that would be from outside
Speaker 2: of the US, and instead work at a US tech
Speaker 2: company in Bahrain.
Speaker 7: As I've said, our human capital for US is really
Speaker 7: really important. So we not only invest in the human
Speaker 7: capital in Bahrain, and we have a lot of programs
Speaker 7: we subsidize training for Bahrains, but it's also very important
Speaker 7: to US as a country in economy to bring in
Speaker 7: international talent. So a few years back, coming out of COVID,
Speaker 7: as part of our economic recovery plan, we've launched our
Speaker 7: Golden Residency Program, which allows investors, retirees, entrepreneurs, talent to
Speaker 7: come in betterin stay for an extend period of time.
Speaker 7: It's ten years, renewable automatically for them and their families,
Speaker 7: and that allows a lot of international companies should they
Speaker 7: wish to do. That's but also a lot of individuals
Speaker 7: to move their people into beatying and take advantage of
Speaker 7: not just the program, but also all of the other
Speaker 7: business benefits that you get by being in Hey.
Speaker 4: One of the things I want to ask, and I
Speaker 4: know high tech and technology is certainly of interest and
Speaker 4: I'm just curious when it comes to big AI data centers.
Speaker 4: I mean, as you would imagine, your excellency, we spend
Speaker 4: so much time talking about the build out, the investments,
Speaker 4: the money flowing into anything and everything data. Curious if
Speaker 4: you guys, if the country and your office are considering
Speaker 4: backing AI data centers such as what we've seen and
Speaker 4: cutter that they've done with Blue Owl.
Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely, it's important. I mean it's coming, it's not
Speaker 7: it's already there. So we've had a WS set up
Speaker 7: the first hyperscale data center in the Middle East in
Speaker 7: Beatty in a few years back. And again, as I mentioned,
Speaker 7: the reason they chose better is because of the regulation,
Speaker 7: but also the strength of the human capital you mentioned Oracle.
Speaker 7: But we also have some regional and local investments for
Speaker 7: data centers, so we're definitely seeing growth in that region
Speaker 7: where international companies that wish to use that and take
Speaker 7: advantage could come and plug and play and take advantage
Speaker 7: of the data centers already available. But really because of
Speaker 7: the demand, there's a lot of potential and opportunities for
Speaker 7: companies that still wish to have data centers in the
Speaker 7: region to come also and take advantage of that.
Speaker 4: So I am curious. You said very optimistic. What's the
Speaker 4: biggest hurdle obstacle right now in you attracting further investment.
Speaker 4: What's the thing that's difficult in terms of what you do.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't say difficult, but we have to have a
Speaker 7: lot of conversation to explain the business environment and talk
Speaker 7: about their characteristics, what makes us different. But it's all
Speaker 7: very very exciting, So we don't mind that at all.
Speaker 4: And I also do think about you know, something that's
Speaker 4: certainly been front and front of mind for us excuse me,
Speaker 4: and certainly coming off the UN General Assembly, and you know,
Speaker 4: watching the turmoil that we've seen in the in the
Speaker 4: in the region, how important is that to the folks
Speaker 4: that you're talking with. It's companies, big name companies that
Speaker 4: we know other investors in terms of investing. Obviously not
Speaker 4: every kingdom or area within the Middle East is the same,
Speaker 4: but you know, the turmoil and certainly the war that
Speaker 4: we've seen between Israel and Hamas, how much of that
Speaker 4: the political situation sometimes slows things down.
Speaker 7: You absolutely need safety and stability for companies to thrive,
Speaker 7: for the economy to grow, and for us in Betty
Speaker 7: and the region as a whole. We've always advocated for
Speaker 7: a piece, We've always played a part on a regional level,
Speaker 7: on an international level to advocate for piece and stability,
Speaker 7: and we continue to do that. At the same time,
Speaker 7: the countries are very much focused on their economic strategies,
Speaker 7: economic plans, and we continue to have conversations with companies
Speaker 7: and for those that have any doubt, we just say
Speaker 7: come and talk to us. We will show you, We
Speaker 7: will explain to you that the current business environment, but
Speaker 7: we are blessed to have to have a very stable
Speaker 7: and a safe business environment.
Speaker 4: I have one last question too, and I'm just curious
Speaker 4: when you do have questions with investors, obviously well known companies,
Speaker 4: big companies. I'm sure folks do their homework, but what
Speaker 4: is the thing that you think they don't really understand
Speaker 4: about Bahrain And in terms of the economy and what
Speaker 4: you guys are doing.
Speaker 7: I think how diversified the economy is something probably people
Speaker 7: do not realize. And given the journey, and we've had
Speaker 7: a long journey off reform, our journey in reform, in
Speaker 7: achieving the diversification that we've achieved today with eighty five
Speaker 7: percent of the economy being not oil, with a large
Speaker 7: manufacturing sector in nuge for financial services sector and others
Speaker 7: as well. It's something people do not realize and what
Speaker 7: that means is for years and years, for decades, were
Speaker 7: built knowledge and know how in our people, in our infrastructure,
Speaker 7: in our regulation and the way we do business and
Speaker 7: the way we work with the private sector as well.
Speaker 7: So that's something that I think always surprises people when
Speaker 7: we talk to them.
Speaker 4: Well, we're so glad we could get some time with you.
Speaker 4: We know we had some technical difficulties earlier, so we
Speaker 4: really appreciate you sticking around and so that we could
Speaker 4: have a conversation.
Speaker 3: Thank you. Thank you again.
Speaker 4: Her excellently nor bent Ali al Kulaife. She is CEO
Speaker 4: of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, also the Kingdom's Minister
Speaker 4: of Sustainable Development.
Speaker 3: She's joining us from our LA bureau.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekday afternoons from two to five ys During
Speaker 1: that listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg
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Speaker 2: Wall Street had long feared that President and Trump would
Speaker 2: follow through with threats to impose aggressive drug pricing policies,
Speaker 2: eroding the pharmaceutical industry's profitability and depressing share prices. Those fears,
Speaker 2: though largely laid to rest this week after Pfizer cut
Speaker 2: a deal with the White House, the company negotiating a
Speaker 2: three year reprieve on drug import tariffs in exchange for
Speaker 2: a promise to reduce what it charges Medicaid. Here's why.
Speaker 2: As your CEO Albert Borla at the White House yesterday
Speaker 2: alongside President Trump.
Speaker 8: The big winner of this deal clearly will be the
Speaker 8: American pace.
Speaker 3: There is no doubt about it.
Speaker 8: They are the ones that will see significant impact in
Speaker 8: their ability to buy medicines. But I would argue that
Speaker 8: it is not the only winner. I think who else
Speaker 8: is a winner here? It is American innovation and American economy.
Speaker 5: We're going to have another meeting next week on this.
Speaker 6: We have another great company coming in similar kind of numbers,
Speaker 6: but we're going to show you some one thousand percent
Speaker 6: drops in prices.
Speaker 3: There has never been anything like this in the history
Speaker 3: of medicine.
Speaker 2: That was President Trump you just heard, and Pfizer CEO
Speaker 2: Albert Borla at the White House yesterday. Pfizer shares surgeon
Speaker 2: close to seven percent yesterday. They're up more than seven
Speaker 2: percent today. I just hope my high school math teacher
Speaker 2: is not listening about one thousand percent drop.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we're not going.
Speaker 2: To get into for another day the math mathing there,
Speaker 2: but it's for another day.
Speaker 4: I want to bring in drugstocks overall in the last
Speaker 4: two days, not just Pfiser up about ten percent in
Speaker 4: the past two days, the whole group.
Speaker 2: Let's bring in Damien Garde. He's Bloomberg News health reporter.
Speaker 2: He's been very busy. He's taken some time to join
Speaker 2: us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Are drug
Speaker 2: price is going to go down as a result of this.
Speaker 9: For the vast majority of Americans. No, I sincerely doubt it.
Speaker 9: There's no reason to conclude that based on what we
Speaker 9: learned at least yesterday from Albert Borla in the Oval
Speaker 9: Office and the promises that Pfizer has made. We can
Speaker 9: get into the nitty gritty, but I think the main
Speaker 9: thing the promise to Medicaid. An important caveat there is
Speaker 9: that that patients on Medicaid, Medicaid already pays the lowest
Speaker 9: price available in the United States. It is legally obligated
Speaker 9: to get that. So the notion that Pfeiser making a
Speaker 9: commitment to lower that further would change the out of
Speaker 9: pocket costs for patients, I just don't think there's much there.
Speaker 9: And furthermore, in terms of Pfiser's business, only about five
Speaker 9: percent of that business accounts for doing business with medicaid.
Speaker 9: That's where business probably too many times. And I think
Speaker 9: the main thing that should drive the reaction here is
Speaker 9: that in this announcement, Pfizer, which has a fiduciary duty
Speaker 9: to maximize its profits and to update shareholders on its guidance,
Speaker 9: did not update its guidance. The company said this thing
Speaker 9: that ostensibly means we're going to make less money, at
Speaker 9: least that's how the president characterized it, but didn't actually
Speaker 9: say we're going to make less money, which of course
Speaker 9: legally they're required to do. I feel like that through
Speaker 9: line is maybe the lens maybe not cynicism, but the
Speaker 9: lens of reality that people should look at these announcements.
Speaker 2: Look no further than the share price reaction.
Speaker 4: I said, yes, sir, I'm like, why is this stock
Speaker 4: rallying They're going to make less money? I just made
Speaker 4: no sense everyone's like, well, it's all about the tiiff thing,
Speaker 4: and I'm like, true, and that is certainly a part
Speaker 4: of it.
Speaker 3: But I'm like, they're going to make less money. How
Speaker 3: can this be a good thing?
Speaker 9: Right? So, I think the relief that you're seeing in
Speaker 9: the share price reaction is twofold or maybe even threefold one.
Speaker 9: It alleviates the threat that the Trump administration was really
Speaker 9: going to come down hard with an aggressive policy that
Speaker 9: would be on the books, that would really constrain what
Speaker 9: drug companies could charge. Instead, we get this voluntary, relatively
Speaker 9: vague promise from Pfizer that is expected to set a
Speaker 9: template for the company's peers, Eli, Lilly, Murke, etc. They
Speaker 9: will probably all have their day at the Oval Office
Speaker 9: to do a similar kind of dog and pony show.
Speaker 9: And then furthermore, what's established is that if you make
Speaker 9: those promises, you get a reprieve from tariffs. Which is
Speaker 9: the other kind of overhang for the entire sector, is
Speaker 9: this fear that the import of medicines from Europe would
Speaker 9: face levies. Of the President has said one hundred two
Speaker 9: hundred percent. The notion that if you just go out
Speaker 9: there and say we're going to follow what the administration
Speaker 9: wants on drug pricing. We get that alleviation.
Speaker 4: DEBI just quickly, just to be fair, I mean, viser
Speaker 4: come back and said this is going to impact us
Speaker 4: financially or it's not going to haven't gotten any clarification
Speaker 4: from the company on this.
Speaker 9: They have not. There hasn't been a follow on filing
Speaker 9: with the SEC kind of making clear that they're restating
Speaker 9: any guidance. And furthermore, what they've said is that the
Speaker 9: terms of their agreement with the White House are confidential,
Speaker 9: so respectfully, we can only conclude what's been said publicly.
Speaker 2: Damien, sit tight. We're going to bring in Angie Frank.
Speaker 2: She's CEO of the private health company calder Rose. The
Speaker 2: firm does drug discount management. It uses AI as well
Speaker 2: as communicating with different parties involved in the negotiating process
Speaker 2: to get consumers the best prices. She joins us from Wisconsin. Angie,
Speaker 2: I'll ask you the same question that I asked Damien,
Speaker 2: because you're right in the middle of this drug pricing thing.
Speaker 2: Are drug price is going to come down as a
Speaker 2: result of what we saw at the White House yesterday.
Speaker 10: I think what Damian said there's some truth to that.
Speaker 10: I think at the end of the day, we won't
Speaker 10: all feel it immediately, but I do think drug prices
Speaker 10: are going to come down. I think the announcement yesterday
Speaker 10: is a big change to this system, and it is
Speaker 10: the first step in what I think will be multiple steps.
Speaker 10: We're certainly opening up more channels for patients to access
Speaker 10: their drugs at more affordable prices. And I think the
Speaker 10: underlying the medicaid price that states currently pay is going
Speaker 10: to come down. Based on Pfizer's announcement yesterday.
Speaker 9: Well, that's interesting. What would the mechanism for that be,
Speaker 9: because that's what I found myself wondering even yesterday in
Speaker 9: the announcement, which granted was lacking key details for obvious reasons,
Speaker 9: is very new, but why would this kind of set
Speaker 9: in motion a snowball that would end with patients paying
Speaker 9: less at the pharmacy count?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 10: Yeah, so I think, you know, if you look at
Speaker 10: the overall list prices starting to come down to an
Speaker 10: MFN like number, and that opening yes most favored Nations exactly,
Speaker 10: and that opening up more channels for patients to access
Speaker 10: their drugs at lower rates. I do think the direct
Speaker 10: model that the website that was also announced yesterday, which
Speaker 10: opens up a channel for patients to be purchasing directly
Speaker 10: at lower costs, could really have a ripple effect on
Speaker 10: the way benefits are offered and how employers and self
Speaker 10: insured employers start constructing benefit plans that give their employees
Speaker 10: access to drugs which may bypass other players in the system,
Speaker 10: the traditional players in the system, middlemen that have been
Speaker 10: making money off of off of drug pricing and discounts
Speaker 10: and rebate models that really didn't benefit patients directly. So
Speaker 10: I think I think the new channels being opened up
Speaker 10: and the new price point at Max's most favored nation
Speaker 10: will over the longer term, have a pretty significant impact.
Speaker 4: Nothing confuses me as much as like picking up prescription
Speaker 4: and q pons and pharmacy benefits. And I don't know,
Speaker 4: it's just kind of crazy, Damien. The PBMs pharmacy benefit managers,
Speaker 4: they are being looked at closely like another layer that
Speaker 4: drives up costs, and so that is certainly part of
Speaker 4: the narrative here.
Speaker 3: So does that potentially.
Speaker 4: Remove that in what we heard from the President and
Speaker 4: the CEO of Pfizer yesterday, But then throw in this
Speaker 4: trump OURX, Like what role is that play.
Speaker 9: That we need to see play out. But I think
Speaker 9: through the eyes of Pfizer and certainly people in the
Speaker 9: pharmaceutical industry, there is an optimism and maybe a hope
Speaker 9: that the agreement announced yesterday, if in fact it's a
Speaker 9: template for other companies, will shift the White House's attention
Speaker 9: away from pharmaceutical manufacturers and toward the PBMs and the
Speaker 9: other middleman that you mentioned. And I think to Angie's point,
Speaker 9: there is a potential that trump our X, this sort
Speaker 9: of direct to patient offering that we've heard about. You know,
Speaker 9: there are arguments is suggest how popular that might be,
Speaker 9: How many people who don't have insurance would be willing
Speaker 9: to pay out of pocket hundreds or even thousands of
Speaker 9: dollars a year for a medicine.
Speaker 2: Is that what trump our X would offer is an
Speaker 2: insurance like this is not covered by insurance.
Speaker 9: It would be a cash pay business. And so we
Speaker 9: assume that the majority of customers for it would be
Speaker 9: uninsured or underinsured, because otherwise they could get the drugs
Speaker 9: much cheaper through their insurance carrier. But the opportunity, and
Speaker 9: I realize we're getting kind of in weeds here. The
Speaker 9: opportunity is that if one of those direct offerings were
Speaker 9: selling instead to employers rather than patients themselves, then they
Speaker 9: would be truly bypassing the middlemend that exists. This is
Speaker 9: sort of the Mark Cuban model that's drugs exactly. So
Speaker 9: if Trump and you know, I'm using my imagination here there,
Speaker 9: this is not something anybody's announced. If trump Orex, the
Speaker 9: website that has not yet launched but has been described,
Speaker 9: were to expand its aperture to include employers, then we
Speaker 9: could be talking about legitimate savings for all parties involved
Speaker 9: and a huge change to the way it's done.
Speaker 2: Now, Angie, come on back in here and talk a
Speaker 2: little bit about the innovation side of things, because Albert
Speaker 2: Gourla at the White House yesterday said it's not just
Speaker 2: the American patient that who will be a big winner,
Speaker 2: but it would also be the American innovation and the
Speaker 2: American economy. Perhaps there are those out there who might say, okay, well,
Speaker 2: if companies drug companies aren't able to make as much
Speaker 2: money from the drugs that they sell, R and D
Speaker 2: in this space might suffer. We know it's expensive to
Speaker 2: run the clinical trials and to do the the R
Speaker 2: and D. What do you think it means for American
Speaker 2: innovation when it comes to pharmaceuticals, well.
Speaker 10: I think it was great. I agree with Albert on
Speaker 10: all points. I think it's great for America that we're
Speaker 10: moving manufacturing and that level of innovation, job creation, et
Speaker 10: cetera to the US. When you when you simplify the
Speaker 10: supply chain and the pricing mechanisms for our current you know,
Speaker 10: drug pricing model. When you simplify that today, there's that
Speaker 10: we lack so much transparency and how prices are established
Speaker 10: and who gets which price. And to your point earlier, Carol,
Speaker 10: where you mentioned you know, the coupons and the copays
Speaker 10: and all these things are so confusing. They're confusing by
Speaker 10: by design. People are making a lot of money off
Speaker 10: of that confusion and that opacity. When you simplify and
Speaker 10: I have more transparency, you have less waste in the system,
Speaker 10: and that waste will feed the top of the funnel.
Speaker 10: That will be dollars that can go directly to the
Speaker 10: top of the innovation funnel and enable manufacturers to continue
Speaker 10: to work on and innovate more drugs and more medication
Speaker 10: therapies that help patients with life saving and life changing conditions.
Speaker 10: So it takes two and a half billion dollars to
Speaker 10: bring a drug to market, so every dollar of waste
Speaker 10: compromises our ability to invest in more and more therapies.
Speaker 10: So I think it's going to have a tremendous impact
Speaker 10: over the long run.
Speaker 4: And you just got about a minute left. I mean,
Speaker 4: just talk to us about what you do. It's a
Speaker 4: data engine, it's information you have. It looks like a
Speaker 4: couple of different constituencies that you work with, But just
Speaker 4: give us an idea and what that tells you about
Speaker 4: kind of the drug industry and drug pricing industry what
Speaker 4: you have been seeing.
Speaker 10: Yeah, we really have a technology platform will re ingest
Speaker 10: you know, large volumes of data. We apply logic and
Speaker 10: rules around various pricing programs and discounts and rebates, and
Speaker 10: then we ensure price integrity that the right price is
Speaker 10: going to the right set of patients and the right
Speaker 10: for that particular therapy. So we're really driving quite a
Speaker 10: bit of price integrity in the system. The constituents that
Speaker 10: we work with include both pharmaceutical manufacturers and providers, and
Speaker 10: we really believe fundamentally that ensuring that the providers and
Speaker 10: the manufacturers can work more closely directly together, benefits Americans,
Speaker 10: benefits patients, benefits innovative.
Speaker 3: Ten seconds, Damien, who we're going to hear from next?
Speaker 3: What's CEO?
Speaker 9: The expectation is that Eli Lilly will be the next
Speaker 9: company to take the stage. The President has said their
Speaker 9: name constantly without totally giving it away. But like I said,
Speaker 9: the expectation also is that all of the major peers
Speaker 9: will have their day at the OLAL office.
Speaker 3: All right, well, we will be watching, listening, reading your reporting.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
Speaker 4: Angie Franks. Of course, CEO of calderis joining us from Wisconsin.
Speaker 4: Damien Gardey, health reporter at Bloomberg News. Here in our
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming
Speaker 2: up after this.
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Speaker 4: Live on YouTube. Stock's hire A bit of a rally underway.
Speaker 4: We're staying near our highs of the session. On the
Speaker 4: equity side of things. We've seen yields move back a
Speaker 4: bit on expectations that yes, indeed, we'll get another FED
Speaker 4: rate cut later on. This month, we did have some
Speaker 4: weak private jobs data we're talking about ADP, those numbers
Speaker 4: coming in definitely below estimate street estimate.
Speaker 2: So shedding of thirty two thousand versus estimates of a
Speaker 2: gain of fifty one thousand.
Speaker 3: That's a bit of a reverse.
Speaker 2: That's exactly where I want to start with. Alexis Brown,
Speaker 2: Robert's COO and portfolio manager at Alexis Investment Partners. They've
Speaker 2: got around one hundred and eighty five million dollars in
Speaker 2: assets under management. She's back with us from Montgomery, Texas. Alexis,
Speaker 2: welcome back. I want to start with the labor market
Speaker 2: and your view on it. Thirty two thousand job shed
Speaker 2: in private payrolls today, fifty one thousand added was the survey.
Speaker 2: Is the labor market cracking?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 9: Hi, First of all, thanks so much for having me
Speaker 9: back on.
Speaker 11: No, I don't think it's necessarily cracking. It is definitely
Speaker 11: weakening a bit, but we're heading into a different seasonal
Speaker 11: period once we get through October, so it'll be interesting
Speaker 11: to see what happens from there. I think the reason
Speaker 11: why job numbers were being a little bit more looked
Speaker 11: at today is it because of the government shutdown and
Speaker 11: the probability that we won't get a job number on Friday.
Speaker 11: But I think there's a lot of other factors happening
Speaker 11: in markets that are going to affect things more than
Speaker 11: necessarily the job market death.
Speaker 5: And we'll have to see what.
Speaker 11: This spurs the FED to do, and if this is
Speaker 11: just a little bit more fuel to the fire for
Speaker 11: the FED to continue cutting rates.
Speaker 3: All right, So let's talk about those factors.
Speaker 4: And I guess what I'm always most interested when we
Speaker 4: talk to somebody who is managing money, big or small,
Speaker 4: if you will, is what their clients are saying, what
Speaker 4: investors are saying.
Speaker 3: Are they giving you new money to.
Speaker 4: Invest or they're saying, let's back off, let's put something
Speaker 4: in something safer. Are they buying gold, because it seems
Speaker 4: like everybody's buying gold this year. So give us some
Speaker 4: color about what you are doing or what your clients
Speaker 4: want to do with their investments right now.
Speaker 11: Yeah. So we're tactical managers, so a lot of our
Speaker 11: clients and all of our clients really have a lot
Speaker 11: of trust in us to make the changes necessary in
Speaker 11: their portfolios and really adapt to changing conditions. So we
Speaker 11: have seen clients adding new money to portfolios, especially as
Speaker 11: we've worked through the low's last April and continuing onward.
Speaker 11: For example, in our tactical portfolios, we've really changed our
Speaker 11: equity positions throughout the past year, going from over over
Speaker 11: lead on in equities slightly getting all the way up
Speaker 11: to almost ninety percent on a seventy percent benchmark equity
Speaker 11: portfolio to now being slightly underweted about sixty five percent,
Speaker 11: and within those having a lot of fluctuations as we've
Speaker 11: seen markets change, and respecting the fact that we're up
Speaker 11: four percent in the past month, seven percent in the
Speaker 11: past quarter, fifteen percent year to date, and just law
Speaker 11: of average when we're aiming to do like a ten
Speaker 11: to twelve percent on that seventy percent benchmark equity exposure.
Speaker 11: Having that ability to change our equity as well as diversify.
Speaker 11: We do own gold, in fact, that's our largest position.
Speaker 11: We're at just under nine percent gold right now in
Speaker 11: that tactical portfolio.
Speaker 2: I want to understand how much upside you see in
Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred right now or US stocks,
Speaker 2: I guess more generally, Bank of America out with a
Speaker 2: note that it says the sentiment indicates that it's hardly euphoric.
Speaker 2: They essentially have this indicator, it's the cell side indicator.
Speaker 2: It retracts recommended allocations to US equities among different Wall
Speaker 2: Street strategists. It remained flat in September fifty five and
Speaker 2: a half percent compared to the dot com bubble in
Speaker 2: two thousand saw cell side equity allocations search above seventy percent,
Speaker 2: and then in two thousand and seven clearing sixty five percent.
Speaker 2: So essentially BAA saying there's more room to run? Do
Speaker 2: you agree?
Speaker 11: I would agree. I do think that there is a
Speaker 11: lot of cash on the sidelines. When you talk about sentiment,
Speaker 11: that's a really interesting story. We tend to look at
Speaker 11: the AAII Bull Bear sentiment ratio survey, and while there
Speaker 11: has been an uptake in bulls, there has actually been
Speaker 11: even more of an uptake in bears compared to historical averages.
Speaker 11: So there is some room to run on that front. Now,
Speaker 11: we aren't necessarily euphoric at this point, Like I said,
Speaker 11: we're about it in neutral allocation, just respecting how far
Speaker 11: we've come so far this year, so we are looking
Speaker 11: still to participate in future gains. Heading into this year,
Speaker 11: we did a Fibonacci retlacement just simply looking at the
Speaker 11: breakdown in April to the lows and if we were
Speaker 11: to have an equal move back up, and that got
Speaker 11: us to about a sixty four hundred to sixty seven
Speaker 11: hundred range on the S and P. Obviously we're knocking
Speaker 11: on that sixty seven hundred today, but I did also
Speaker 11: look at potentially reaching seven thousand and coming back. So
Speaker 11: I think it'll be interesting to see from here where
Speaker 11: we wind up. But there are a lot of reasons
Speaker 11: to still be positive on the market, but perhaps not
Speaker 11: quite as strong as we were heading into this year.
Speaker 3: All right, So what's your biggest worry in this environment?
Speaker 4: One of the things that we talked with when we
Speaker 4: began our show, and we had a conversation with yes
Speaker 4: Alan McCartney over at UBS. She actually has alignment partners
Speaker 4: at UBS, and it was like, the complacency that we're
Speaker 4: seeing the market is really low, and that doesn't need
Speaker 4: to be certainly the indicator that tells all, but there
Speaker 4: is feels like there's a lot of folks thinking that
Speaker 4: this momentum will continue. What is the thing, what is
Speaker 4: the thing that you keep your eye on that says that, well,
Speaker 4: maybe there is problems like the you know, today's labor data.
Speaker 11: So I would think that the main thing that we're
Speaker 11: looking at right now that gives us a little bit
Speaker 11: of pause is just valuations being a little bit rich
Speaker 11: and once again just respecting how far we've already come
Speaker 11: in such a short time period and just recognizing that
Speaker 11: perhaps that means that we'll have some room to pull back.
Speaker 11: And honestly, there's a lot of strong parts to the
Speaker 11: market right now, though, as you pointed out, momentum. We
Speaker 11: are strong believers in momentum and innovation, and it tends
Speaker 11: to be that if there's a strong Q three which
Speaker 11: obviously this was a very strong Q three in markets,
Speaker 11: that that momentum tends to carry forward through Q four.
Speaker 11: That being said, we are still watching evaluations and the
Speaker 11: different moving factors, for example, federal reserve policy, seeing how
Speaker 11: that affects things going forward. If there is a pullback
Speaker 11: heading through Q four, we're probably going to be biased
Speaker 11: to actually buy into that, although more patient than we
Speaker 11: have been prior to reaching these valuations, but if we
Speaker 11: run up a lot through Q four. That would probably
Speaker 11: be our indicator to pull back exposure a little bit.
Speaker 4: Hey, one last thing, just got thirty forty seconds here, Alexis,
Speaker 4: what about that AI trade? How much are your investors saying, yeah,
Speaker 4: give me exposure or and if so, how do they
Speaker 4: want that exposure?
Speaker 3: Just quickly. We like AI, Like.
Speaker 11: I said, big big proponents of innovation. We're not in
Speaker 11: the business of finding the next Apple and Google. We'd
Speaker 11: rather go ahead and invest in those strong fortress balance
Speaker 11: sheet companies. But really the exciting part of AI to
Speaker 11: us is how it will affect the market in general
Speaker 11: and all these other companies, say a Walmart, a Caterpillar,
Speaker 11: that will use AI to boost productivity rather than specifically
Speaker 11: trying to find that sexy AI play it.
Speaker 3: SAP, all right, Going to leave it there.
Speaker 4: Hey, good to check in with you, Alexis Brown Robert
Speaker 4: COO and portfolio manager at Alexis Investment Partners around one
Speaker 4: hundred and eighty five million dollars in assets under management,
Speaker 4: joining us once again from Montgomery, Texas.
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