WEBVTT - What a Government Shutdown Means

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders

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<v Speaker 1>stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends

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<v Speaker 1>news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, day one the government shutdown, Day one of the

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<v Speaker 2>fourth quarter.

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<v Speaker 3>As well, and it's been an interesting one.

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<v Speaker 2>How long is it going to happen? How long is

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<v Speaker 2>it going to go on?

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's a big question, right and I think

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<v Speaker 4>the duration of this shutdown, you know, that is going

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<v Speaker 4>to be a big deal in terms of the impact

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<v Speaker 4>we will certainly see. And I think we're all waiting

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<v Speaker 4>and watching because the concerns have been whether or not

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<v Speaker 4>we start to see workers being cut as the President

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<v Speaker 4>has said he would do.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the President well rather, White House Judge Director Russell

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<v Speaker 2>Vote is planning to swiftly dismiss federal workers, with layoffs

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<v Speaker 2>to happen within two days imminent very soon. According to

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<v Speaker 2>White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, We're going to continue

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<v Speaker 2>to bring you the latest from Washington, DC, and that

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<v Speaker 2>includes checking in with Nathan Dean. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior

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<v Speaker 2>policy analysts. He joins us from the nation's capital. Nathan,

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<v Speaker 2>you were I don't remember how optimistic you were yesterday.

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<v Speaker 2>To be honest, I have to be honest with you.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like you were optimistic in the early part

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<v Speaker 2>of the day, and then in the later part of

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<v Speaker 2>the day you got less and less optimistic. And certainly

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<v Speaker 2>what ended up happening was the government did shut down.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there any is the daylight decreasing between Republicans and

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats right now.

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<v Speaker 5>At the leadership level.

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<v Speaker 6>Look, they're both in the pasture right now where they're

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<v Speaker 6>trying to blame the other. And yesterday it was two

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<v Speaker 6>forty one when I told my first client that I

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<v Speaker 6>thought it was going to shut down. But I still

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<v Speaker 6>feel that it's a little optimistic to say that we

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<v Speaker 6>think that this shutdown is going to end probably within

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<v Speaker 6>ten days. Now polymarket has it eleven point five days,

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<v Speaker 6>So that's the general can you know consensus out there,

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<v Speaker 6>But we did see the first time today some bipartisan senators,

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<v Speaker 6>not at the leadership level, but at the working level.

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<v Speaker 6>I would call it gag on the Senate floor to

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<v Speaker 6>potentially talk about a short term CR combined with maybe

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<v Speaker 6>some type of effort on Obamacare subsidies. Now they left

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<v Speaker 6>for today, they're out for Yamkapor. They won't come back

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<v Speaker 6>until Friday. I think that you're going to see more

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<v Speaker 6>political rhetoric take place on Friday, and you're not going

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<v Speaker 6>to see serious negotiations till over the weekend, because I

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<v Speaker 6>remember the House Republicans are still aren't here.

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<v Speaker 5>They come back next week.

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<v Speaker 6>But all that has to happen and keep the government

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<v Speaker 6>open is five Democrats need to go and support this.

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<v Speaker 6>Because yesterday's vote three Democrats or two Democrats and an

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<v Speaker 6>independent that caucuses with the Democrats ended up voting for this.

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<v Speaker 6>So Senator Schumer only has a few more days until

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<v Speaker 6>I think the pressure for more Democrats will be to

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<v Speaker 6>go and say we're going to reopen the government.

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<v Speaker 3>You mentioned CR. Of course that's a continuing resolution. Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>What I'm wondering is are the democrats?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, what are people saying or what do you

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<v Speaker 4>think as you watch the government whether it would have

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<v Speaker 4>been democrats or Republicans. Are democrats in this case in

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<v Speaker 4>this instance kind of right to put their foot down

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<v Speaker 4>on an issue that's very important to their voters or

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<v Speaker 4>their constituents in terms of healthcare. And if they don't

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<v Speaker 4>put their foot down and they say, all right, let's

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<v Speaker 4>not shut down the government, let it go, you guys

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<v Speaker 4>say you'll talk to us. Are they silly in not

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<v Speaker 4>kind of getting a deal or you know beforehand, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>getting some kind of commitment. So an issue that they

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<v Speaker 4>say is very important to their American voters. And let's

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<v Speaker 4>remember go back to the election. You know, half voted

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<v Speaker 4>for the president are a little bit more than half,

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<v Speaker 4>right if you look at the popular vote, and the

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<v Speaker 4>other half did not.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, shutdowns occur when both parties think that it's

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<v Speaker 6>politically advantageous for to shut down to occur. And I

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<v Speaker 6>think that's the situation we're still in. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of folks that blame Republicans for this. There are a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of folks that blame Democrats for this. But from

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<v Speaker 6>the democratics perspective, there were two goals I think going

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<v Speaker 6>into the shutdown. One was for Senator Schumer to rally

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<v Speaker 6>the troops to be seen fighting President Trump, and the

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<v Speaker 6>second was to bring attention to the issue of the

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<v Speaker 6>Obamacare subsidies that expire at the end of the year. Now,

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<v Speaker 6>Senator thun has said that there's going to be no

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<v Speaker 6>negotiation on Obamacare subsidies, at least resolving that issue while

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<v Speaker 6>the government is shut down, and I believe him on that.

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<v Speaker 6>But the Democrats have achieved their first goal, or will

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<v Speaker 6>within a few days of being seen as combating President Trump.

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<v Speaker 6>The challenge for Senator Schumer at this point is what

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<v Speaker 6>is the exit strategy? How do we get out of

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<v Speaker 6>this government shutdown? And that's why I think that sometime

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<v Speaker 6>next week you will see, like in an unofficial agreement,

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<v Speaker 6>unofficial handshake, if you will, that there will be an

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<v Speaker 6>effort to deal with these Obamacare subsidies. Because I think

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<v Speaker 6>there are some folks in the Republican Party, President Trump included,

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<v Speaker 6>who recognize that it may not be beneficial in an

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<v Speaker 6>election year for Obamacare subsidies to go up for average Americans.

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<v Speaker 6>But let's also remember that the bulk of the Republican

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<v Speaker 6>Party most likely wants this to go away. So even

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<v Speaker 6>if there is an agreement that says we're going to

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<v Speaker 6>kick the candidate till November, these shutdown fights are going

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<v Speaker 6>to continue. Probably into the beginning of next year.

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<v Speaker 2>He is into the beginning of next year. Does it

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<v Speaker 2>affect the mid terms? I was talking with some colleagues

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<v Speaker 2>earlier today, and it seems like voters, like anecdotally, they

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<v Speaker 2>don't really remember shutdowns.

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<v Speaker 6>Now, they don't, especially not this far out from November.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, look, it's October first, and we have a

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<v Speaker 6>year and some change until the midterms. I don't know

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<v Speaker 6>many people are going to go into the voting booth

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<v Speaker 6>and say, hey, remember what happened back in October of

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<v Speaker 6>last year, And remember the Tea Party somewhat did this

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<v Speaker 6>back in twenty thirteen, and the Republicans ultimately ended up

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<v Speaker 6>gaining nine seats in the following midterm election of the

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<v Speaker 6>following year.

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<v Speaker 5>But I will say is.

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<v Speaker 6>That it's a certainly about momentum. And the Democrats right

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<v Speaker 6>now have a very poor approval rating, It's around thirty percent.

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<v Speaker 6>And so from the Democratic perspective, why don't we shut

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<v Speaker 6>this down? Why don't we rally the troops and rally

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<v Speaker 6>the progressive support. Let's support our base, and then we'll

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<v Speaker 6>spend the next year in change actually trying to build

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<v Speaker 6>some momentum.

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<v Speaker 5>So I can see the case for.

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<v Speaker 6>Why the Democrats would want to shut the government down

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<v Speaker 6>because there is plenty of time for them to come

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<v Speaker 6>back and get messaging onto other issues.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey, Nathan, what about you know President jd Vance's downplay

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<v Speaker 4>plans to use the shutdown to slash services. He says

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans don't want to lay anybody off, and that Democrats

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<v Speaker 4>would be held responsible for any negative consequences of the

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<v Speaker 4>government closure. President Trump has come out, He's been very

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<v Speaker 4>clear right talking about, you know, the ability or you know,

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<v Speaker 4>to cut some of the federal government jobs. Russell Vote

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<v Speaker 4>has certainly we've seen that as well. So are we

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<v Speaker 4>expecting that to happen? And if it does happen, you

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<v Speaker 4>know who is responsible for that.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think you're going to see signs of that.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, Russell Vote even said just in a House

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<v Speaker 6>Republican caucus earlier today that layoffs are and I'm paraphrasing

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<v Speaker 6>your imminent in the next day or two. I think

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<v Speaker 6>there's some probably some truth behind that. You would also

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<v Speaker 6>see additional cancelation of projects. The eighteen billion dollars the

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<v Speaker 6>earmarked for those who in New York City in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of infrastructure projects, but ultimately it's going to be President

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<v Speaker 6>Trump that makes this decision. And I think that President

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<v Speaker 6>Trump realizes that widespread layoffs of government workers, it's such

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<v Speaker 6>which a broad nature, is not going to be popular

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<v Speaker 6>with the American populace. You know, Joe Matthew in Balance

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<v Speaker 6>of Power has had several Republicans on this week where

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<v Speaker 6>they've asked President Trump to bring a scalpel to this

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<v Speaker 6>as opposed to a sledgehammer. So you'll probably see a

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<v Speaker 6>notifiaications go out and you'll probably see signs. But as

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<v Speaker 6>of right now, I still think it's political posturing not

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<v Speaker 6>so much actually a real layoff threat. But again, time

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<v Speaker 6>may change, and if this is the if it does happen,

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<v Speaker 6>I think it actually could push parties further apart and

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<v Speaker 6>potentially extend the shutdown even long.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we did a deep dive yesterday, as you know,

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<v Speaker 2>on Russell vote and his role at OMB and the

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<v Speaker 2>DNA that he brings to this role. Does he take

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<v Speaker 2>a scalpel when it comes to laying off federal workers?

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<v Speaker 5>Not if he gets his wish.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, obviously this goes back to Project twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 6>five and this idea that where the government is extremely bloated.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know, former.

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<v Speaker 6>OMB director mcmulvaney was on Balance of Power a couple

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<v Speaker 6>of weeks ago, and he was jubilant and saying, look this,

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<v Speaker 6>I'm excited for RUSS vote because you're going to be

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<v Speaker 6>able to dismantle a lot of apparatus of the government.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm paraphrasing his works there. But I will say is

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<v Speaker 6>that it's not easy to do. Both sides will often

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<v Speaker 6>come to Washington and saying, look, there's bloat.

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<v Speaker 5>There are things that we need to cut.

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<v Speaker 6>But it's not easy to do so because there are

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<v Speaker 6>things like regulations and statues and laws. And if you

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<v Speaker 6>end up cutting folks like we saw what happened with

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<v Speaker 6>Doge earlier this year, and you break the law, or

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<v Speaker 6>at least you're breaking regulations, or you're breaking what the

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<v Speaker 6>American people want.

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<v Speaker 5>You to do, you have to end up hiring them back.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey, Nathan, really quickly fifteen seconds. I mean, who is

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump listening to in all of this?

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<v Speaker 5>Jd.

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<v Speaker 4>Vance was very much out front and center and very

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<v Speaker 4>much in command earlier today talking about the shutdown. This

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<v Speaker 4>is RUSS vote. Just got about ten seconds. Who is

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<v Speaker 4>the president listening to?

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<v Speaker 6>Very quickly I think the President is listening to himself,

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<v Speaker 6>and I think the President's going to make the decision

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<v Speaker 6>that he wants to make.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, kind to leave it there, you rock. Nathan Dean,

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst jointing US from Washington, DC.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

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<v Speaker 2>up this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch

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<v Speaker 4>Bahrain has emerged as a key economic and security partner

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<v Speaker 4>for Washington, hosting several US military assets, including the US

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<v Speaker 4>Navy's fifth Fleet and the Branch's Central Command. And you

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<v Speaker 4>might recall over this past summer a meeting at the

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<v Speaker 4>White House where Bahrain's Crown prints pledged seventeen billion dollars

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<v Speaker 4>worth of investments in the United States. While our next

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<v Speaker 4>guest is focusing on bringing investments into Bahrain. Joining us

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<v Speaker 4>is her Excellency nor Bent al al Kulaif.

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<v Speaker 3>She is CEO of the Bahrain.

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<v Speaker 4>Economic Development Board and also the Kingdom's Minister of Sustainable Development.

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<v Speaker 4>She is in our Bloomberg News La Bureau. I'm so delighted,

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<v Speaker 4>your excellency that we could spend some time with you.

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg has reported a lot about the Middle East at large,

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<v Speaker 4>how it's transitioning, taking moves to broaden out the region's economy,

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<v Speaker 4>making investments in sports, tourism, technology, and a lot more.

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<v Speaker 4>Tell us about for Bahrain, about attracting investments in the

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<v Speaker 4>digital and tech world, your mission, who has invested so far,

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<v Speaker 4>give us some size and scope if you would.

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<v Speaker 7>Absolutely. First of all, Carol's exciting to be with you

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<v Speaker 7>today and looking forward to the conversation as well. So

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<v Speaker 7>thank you so much for hosting me today. And I

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<v Speaker 7>always find it very helpful to start with maybe a

0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:35.000
<v Speaker 7>thirty second elevator pitch about beading. For those that are

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<v Speaker 7>not familiar with the country. Bahrain is a small island

0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:42.560
<v Speaker 7>part of the Golf Corporation Council. As a country, historically

0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:47.720
<v Speaker 7>it's been a strategic maritime state, so it was always

0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.880
<v Speaker 7>considered as a transit, as a hub, as a gateway

0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.360
<v Speaker 7>to the region and a transit for trade growing east

0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:56.160
<v Speaker 7>and west. And that's also started because of the perling

0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:59.800
<v Speaker 7>industry in Bahrain. But fast forward till today, we still

0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:05.000
<v Speaker 7>readin that role and that really underpins our ethos or

0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:08.319
<v Speaker 7>our DNA of being business friendly and we need to

0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.720
<v Speaker 7>cut our economy today people think Bahrain it's an oil

0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:17.000
<v Speaker 7>exported country. In reality and on the ground, our GDP

0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.520
<v Speaker 7>is eighty five percent non oil. Financial services sector is

0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:24.520
<v Speaker 7>the largest contributor to our economy, followed by manufacturing. But

0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:29.800
<v Speaker 7>our other strategic sectors that we focus on our tourism, logistics, technology,

0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.520
<v Speaker 7>but also we have the education and the healthcare. So

0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:37.040
<v Speaker 7>you can see that diversification was achieved through attracting investment

0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:41.040
<v Speaker 7>into the country, being very open and allowing investors to

0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.840
<v Speaker 7>come and take advantage of the region and what's happening,

0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.960
<v Speaker 7>and using Bahrain as their testing ground as their base.

0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.959
<v Speaker 7>So it's been really interesting times, especially with the growth

0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:51.760
<v Speaker 7>that is happening in the region at the moment.

0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.480
<v Speaker 2>Well, you're in our Los Angeles Bureau now ostensibly in

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 2>Los Angeles to help attract investment to the country. Can

0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.520
<v Speaker 2>you talk a little bit about who you're meeting with

0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.840
<v Speaker 2>the type of investment that you're hoping to attract.

0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:06.839
<v Speaker 7>It's been a variety actually of companies and sectors that

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.320
<v Speaker 7>we've had conversations with, and I have to say it's

0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:14.239
<v Speaker 7>been very, very interesting. We've always in Bahrain admired specifically

0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:18.000
<v Speaker 7>if the technology sector of the US and having direct

0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.800
<v Speaker 7>conversations with theirs, innovators, with the founders or the people

0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.679
<v Speaker 7>that are really close to not just what's happening at

0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.640
<v Speaker 7>the moment and what consumers have, but really also what

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.800
<v Speaker 7>is expected to come going forward. So a lot of

0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:34.360
<v Speaker 7>discussions about technology and how Batratan can support that, but

0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 7>also we've had discussions on manufacturing. We've had discussions even

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 7>on the film industry, and we do that. And the

0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 7>way we look at Bahrain and that we were able

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 7>to talk about those different industries is because when we

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.440
<v Speaker 7>assess our market in Bahrain, we look at various things.

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 7>We look at what is the infrastructure that I have

0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.640
<v Speaker 7>at the moment, what are the regulations that I have,

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.040
<v Speaker 7>what is the human capital that I have? And how

0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.760
<v Speaker 7>can that serve international companies in various sectors is and

0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.000
<v Speaker 7>what would be beneficial for them to come and take

0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.400
<v Speaker 7>advantage of the business environment.

0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:08.200
<v Speaker 2>Is it a difficult thing to do in a world

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.840
<v Speaker 2>that is increasingly going I don't want to say the

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 2>world's going America first, but countries are increasingly looking inward.

0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned the film industry and meetings that you're having

0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.319
<v Speaker 2>out there. Just this week, the President said he's imposing

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 2>a one hundred percent tariff on foreign made movies. How

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.320
<v Speaker 2>much more difficult does that make your job trying to

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.240
<v Speaker 2>attract those folks to Bahrain.

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 7>Look, we acknowledge and we see the President Trump is

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:37.440
<v Speaker 7>doing in terms of attracting more local investments. And actually,

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 7>if you look at the region and Betting and the

0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.000
<v Speaker 7>rest of the GCC, we actually mirror that sentiment. A

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 7>lot of the countries are trying to bring in investments

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.840
<v Speaker 7>into the region. But we also believe it's not as

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 7>zero sum game. Some companies would need to have presence

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 7>in both regions, not necessarily just one, in order to

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.320
<v Speaker 7>achieve the results that they want, even locally here in

0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 7>the US, and we're talking to some of those companies

0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.240
<v Speaker 7>that need the input. Other companies actually need to be

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 7>closer by nature to their consumers, and giving the growth

0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:08.040
<v Speaker 7>in the demand and the growth in the consumer base

0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 7>in the Middle East and specifically the GCC, a lot

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 7>of the companies would need that presence closer to the consumer.

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 7>So we're having a lot of conversations with companies about that,

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 7>but we very much understand what is happening here in

0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 7>the US, and we try to do our best to

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 7>support those companies. The first thing we do with companies

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.359
<v Speaker 7>is ask what are your growth plans, what are your strategies,

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 7>how can we support you in the region, and what

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.720
<v Speaker 7>can Barin do for you, Because we honestly believe that

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.360
<v Speaker 7>their success means our success. So their success in the

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 7>region means they will stay here for the foreseeable future,

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 7>which means they've become part of our ecosystem and part

0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.120
<v Speaker 7>of our economic development.

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.960
<v Speaker 4>Your excellency, I'm curious to what's the competitive landscape as

0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 4>you buy for investments in capital. I mean, yes, your

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 4>country versus other Golf nations, they've got similar ambitions we

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 4>report about all the time.

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 3>So what is that competitive landscape like?

0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 7>First of all, it's absolutely exciting to see all of

0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 7>the countries having their Vision twenty thirties, Virgin twenty fifties,

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 7>really focusing on economic development, and the region really has

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 7>complementary economies, certainly for betraying the way we see ourselves

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.640
<v Speaker 7>and view ourselves. It's economy that complements what is happening

0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.000
<v Speaker 7>in the rest of the region. We very much look

0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.440
<v Speaker 7>at what's happening and we invite companies to come and

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 7>use Bahrain as a base to test those concepts and

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 7>those ideas that they have. Again, it's a small country,

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 7>you can do our country wide roll out really easily.

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 7>But also we always look at our competitive advantage. For US,

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 7>cost competitiveness is really important. We continue to monitor how

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 7>much it costs not just to set up your business,

0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.880
<v Speaker 7>but also for your moving people internationally, how much does

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 7>it cost for them to live there, to put their

0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 7>kids in school, to use the health system and Bahrain.

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 7>The other thing that we have is connectivity. So speaking

0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 7>of the US, we have a free trade agreement with

0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 7>the US. We have this a seput agreement, but also

0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.600
<v Speaker 7>we have free trade agreements and investment agreements with about

0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 7>thirty percent of the world GDP because as a small country,

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 7>we have to make sure that companies can reach wider

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.320
<v Speaker 7>consumer base. But we also what's really important for US

0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 7>is that we work very closely with the private sector.

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 7>So the government and the private sector works as one

0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 7>unit in Bahtray and we have that ethos off the

0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.520
<v Speaker 7>team betraying concept. And as I as I said, we

0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:26.600
<v Speaker 7>always start with what do you need and how can

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 7>I support you? And we have examples of where we've

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.000
<v Speaker 7>introduced a new legislation or a new regulation in response

0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 7>or request by the private sector. And maybe AWS is

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.760
<v Speaker 7>a great example in that case because they've said, what

0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 7>can you do for us in terms of the regulation,

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 7>and we said, how about data jurisdiction law where the

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.120
<v Speaker 7>data hosted and behraanustrated as an embassy, so me as

0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 7>a better I cannot access that data and it actually

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 7>could only be accessed by a US court request.

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.880
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned Amazon, and I'm looking at a report coming

0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:00.360
<v Speaker 2>from mortor Intelligence talks about some of the big tech

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 2>companies in Bahrain. Oracle, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft are among them.

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.280
<v Speaker 2>Here in the US, we've been thinking a lot about

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.399
<v Speaker 2>immigration with regard to the H one B visa issues

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 2>that have come up in recent weeks and the confusion

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 2>here in the US about that, and I think one

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 2>piece of the conversation that has been lost is certainly

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.760
<v Speaker 2>the US wants to make sure that it employees or

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 2>that companies are paying for it. Sounds like paying for

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.240
<v Speaker 2>these visas. Is there an opportunity for Bahrain to come

0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 2>in and take some of that talent that could work

0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 2>at a US tech company that would be from outside

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.600
<v Speaker 2>of the US, and instead work at a US tech

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 2>company in Bahrain.

0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 7>As I've said, our human capital for US is really

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.320
<v Speaker 7>really important. So we not only invest in the human

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.800
<v Speaker 7>capital in Bahrain, and we have a lot of programs

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:50.240
<v Speaker 7>we subsidize training for Bahrains, but it's also very important

0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 7>to US as a country in economy to bring in

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:56.879
<v Speaker 7>international talent. So a few years back, coming out of COVID,

0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 7>as part of our economic recovery plan, we've launched our

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 7>Golden Residency Program, which allows investors, retirees, entrepreneurs, talent to

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 7>come in betterin stay for an extend period of time.

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:13.720
<v Speaker 7>It's ten years, renewable automatically for them and their families,

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 7>and that allows a lot of international companies should they

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 7>wish to do. That's but also a lot of individuals

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.639
<v Speaker 7>to move their people into beatying and take advantage of

0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 7>not just the program, but also all of the other

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:29.640
<v Speaker 7>business benefits that you get by being in Hey.

0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:31.639
<v Speaker 4>One of the things I want to ask, and I

0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 4>know high tech and technology is certainly of interest and

0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:38.560
<v Speaker 4>I'm just curious when it comes to big AI data centers.

0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean, as you would imagine, your excellency, we spend

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.840
<v Speaker 4>so much time talking about the build out, the investments,

0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 4>the money flowing into anything and everything data. Curious if

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 4>you guys, if the country and your office are considering

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:54.439
<v Speaker 4>backing AI data centers such as what we've seen and

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:56.399
<v Speaker 4>cutter that they've done with Blue Owl.

0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:00.760
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, absolutely, it's important. I mean it's coming, it's not

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 7>it's already there. So we've had a WS set up

0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:07.920
<v Speaker 7>the first hyperscale data center in the Middle East in

0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:10.760
<v Speaker 7>Beatty in a few years back. And again, as I mentioned,

0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:12.640
<v Speaker 7>the reason they chose better is because of the regulation,

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 7>but also the strength of the human capital you mentioned Oracle.

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 7>But we also have some regional and local investments for

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:22.000
<v Speaker 7>data centers, so we're definitely seeing growth in that region

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 7>where international companies that wish to use that and take

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 7>advantage could come and plug and play and take advantage

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.399
<v Speaker 7>of the data centers already available. But really because of

0:19:30.440 --> 0:19:33.600
<v Speaker 7>the demand, there's a lot of potential and opportunities for

0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 7>companies that still wish to have data centers in the

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:40.240
<v Speaker 7>region to come also and take advantage of that.

0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:44.720
<v Speaker 4>So I am curious. You said very optimistic. What's the

0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:51.080
<v Speaker 4>biggest hurdle obstacle right now in you attracting further investment.

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.840
<v Speaker 4>What's the thing that's difficult in terms of what you do.

0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:58.800
<v Speaker 7>I wouldn't say difficult, but we have to have a

0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 7>lot of conversation to explain the business environment and talk

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 7>about their characteristics, what makes us different. But it's all

0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:08.680
<v Speaker 7>very very exciting, So we don't mind that at all.

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:10.879
<v Speaker 4>And I also do think about you know, something that's

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:15.080
<v Speaker 4>certainly been front and front of mind for us excuse me,

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.560
<v Speaker 4>and certainly coming off the UN General Assembly, and you know,

0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.560
<v Speaker 4>watching the turmoil that we've seen in the in the

0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 4>in the region, how important is that to the folks

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:26.760
<v Speaker 4>that you're talking with. It's companies, big name companies that

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:31.240
<v Speaker 4>we know other investors in terms of investing. Obviously not

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 4>every kingdom or area within the Middle East is the same,

0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:38.240
<v Speaker 4>but you know, the turmoil and certainly the war that

0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:40.880
<v Speaker 4>we've seen between Israel and Hamas, how much of that

0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:44.920
<v Speaker 4>the political situation sometimes slows things down.

0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:52.000
<v Speaker 7>You absolutely need safety and stability for companies to thrive,

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.800
<v Speaker 7>for the economy to grow, and for us in Betty

0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:57.640
<v Speaker 7>and the region as a whole. We've always advocated for

0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 7>a piece, We've always played a part on a regional level,

0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.680
<v Speaker 7>on an international level to advocate for piece and stability,

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:08.359
<v Speaker 7>and we continue to do that. At the same time,

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.359
<v Speaker 7>the countries are very much focused on their economic strategies,

0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:15.960
<v Speaker 7>economic plans, and we continue to have conversations with companies

0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:18.080
<v Speaker 7>and for those that have any doubt, we just say

0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 7>come and talk to us. We will show you, We

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.159
<v Speaker 7>will explain to you that the current business environment, but

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 7>we are blessed to have to have a very stable

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 7>and a safe business environment.

0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:30.240
<v Speaker 4>I have one last question too, and I'm just curious

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:33.600
<v Speaker 4>when you do have questions with investors, obviously well known companies,

0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:35.719
<v Speaker 4>big companies. I'm sure folks do their homework, but what

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.840
<v Speaker 4>is the thing that you think they don't really understand

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 4>about Bahrain And in terms of the economy and what

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:43.320
<v Speaker 4>you guys are doing.

0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:47.919
<v Speaker 7>I think how diversified the economy is something probably people

0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:51.240
<v Speaker 7>do not realize. And given the journey, and we've had

0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:55.399
<v Speaker 7>a long journey off reform, our journey in reform, in

0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.040
<v Speaker 7>achieving the diversification that we've achieved today with eighty five

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 7>percent of the economy being not oil, with a large

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:04.439
<v Speaker 7>manufacturing sector in nuge for financial services sector and others

0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:06.920
<v Speaker 7>as well. It's something people do not realize and what

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.360
<v Speaker 7>that means is for years and years, for decades, were

0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:14.119
<v Speaker 7>built knowledge and know how in our people, in our infrastructure,

0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:16.399
<v Speaker 7>in our regulation and the way we do business and

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:19.080
<v Speaker 7>the way we work with the private sector as well.

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 7>So that's something that I think always surprises people when

0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:22.360
<v Speaker 7>we talk to them.

0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 4>Well, we're so glad we could get some time with you.

0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:27.000
<v Speaker 4>We know we had some technical difficulties earlier, so we

0:22:27.040 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 4>really appreciate you sticking around and so that we could

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:30.679
<v Speaker 4>have a conversation.

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:32.520
<v Speaker 3>Thank you. Thank you again.

0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:37.160
<v Speaker 4>Her excellently nor bent Ali al Kulaife. She is CEO

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.200
<v Speaker 4>of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, also the Kingdom's Minister

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 4>of Sustainable Development.

0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:43.600
<v Speaker 3>She's joining us from our LA bureau.

0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:48.160
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch

0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:50.920
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five ys During

0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:54.359
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0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:56.920
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0:22:58.280 --> 0:23:00.520
<v Speaker 2>Wall Street had long feared that President and Trump would

0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:04.240
<v Speaker 2>follow through with threats to impose aggressive drug pricing policies,

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 2>eroding the pharmaceutical industry's profitability and depressing share prices. Those fears,

0:23:09.480 --> 0:23:11.800
<v Speaker 2>though largely laid to rest this week after Pfizer cut

0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 2>a deal with the White House, the company negotiating a

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.159
<v Speaker 2>three year reprieve on drug import tariffs in exchange for

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:20.639
<v Speaker 2>a promise to reduce what it charges Medicaid. Here's why.

0:23:20.640 --> 0:23:22.959
<v Speaker 2>As your CEO Albert Borla at the White House yesterday

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 2>alongside President Trump.

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:28.080
<v Speaker 8>The big winner of this deal clearly will be the

0:23:28.160 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 8>American pace.

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 3>There is no doubt about it.

0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 8>They are the ones that will see significant impact in

0:23:35.440 --> 0:23:39.440
<v Speaker 8>their ability to buy medicines. But I would argue that

0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:42.399
<v Speaker 8>it is not the only winner. I think who else

0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:47.679
<v Speaker 8>is a winner here? It is American innovation and American economy.

0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:49.840
<v Speaker 5>We're going to have another meeting next week on this.

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:53.000
<v Speaker 6>We have another great company coming in similar kind of numbers,

0:23:53.840 --> 0:23:56.679
<v Speaker 6>but we're going to show you some one thousand percent

0:23:56.760 --> 0:23:57.879
<v Speaker 6>drops in prices.

0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:00.720
<v Speaker 3>There has never been anything like this in the history

0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:01.360
<v Speaker 3>of medicine.

0:24:02.400 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 2>That was President Trump you just heard, and Pfizer CEO

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Albert Borla at the White House yesterday. Pfizer shares surgeon

0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:11.600
<v Speaker 2>close to seven percent yesterday. They're up more than seven

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:14.960
<v Speaker 2>percent today. I just hope my high school math teacher

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:16.840
<v Speaker 2>is not listening about one thousand percent drop.

0:24:16.960 --> 0:24:18.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, because we're not going.

0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:21.200
<v Speaker 2>To get into for another day the math mathing there,

0:24:21.520 --> 0:24:22.480
<v Speaker 2>but it's for another day.

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:24.920
<v Speaker 4>I want to bring in drugstocks overall in the last

0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 4>two days, not just Pfiser up about ten percent in

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:28.879
<v Speaker 4>the past two days, the whole group.

0:24:29.280 --> 0:24:31.639
<v Speaker 2>Let's bring in Damien Garde. He's Bloomberg News health reporter.

0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:34.040
<v Speaker 2>He's been very busy. He's taken some time to join

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 2>us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Are drug

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 2>price is going to go down as a result of this.

0:24:40.640 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 9>For the vast majority of Americans. No, I sincerely doubt it.

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 9>There's no reason to conclude that based on what we

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:51.399
<v Speaker 9>learned at least yesterday from Albert Borla in the Oval

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:54.159
<v Speaker 9>Office and the promises that Pfizer has made. We can

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:56.320
<v Speaker 9>get into the nitty gritty, but I think the main

0:24:56.400 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 9>thing the promise to Medicaid. An important caveat there is

0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:03.080
<v Speaker 9>that that patients on Medicaid, Medicaid already pays the lowest

0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 9>price available in the United States. It is legally obligated

0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:09.320
<v Speaker 9>to get that. So the notion that Pfeiser making a

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:12.920
<v Speaker 9>commitment to lower that further would change the out of

0:25:12.960 --> 0:25:16.480
<v Speaker 9>pocket costs for patients, I just don't think there's much there.

0:25:16.720 --> 0:25:19.840
<v Speaker 9>And furthermore, in terms of Pfiser's business, only about five

0:25:19.880 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 9>percent of that business accounts for doing business with medicaid.

0:25:22.119 --> 0:25:25.000
<v Speaker 9>That's where business probably too many times. And I think

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:28.960
<v Speaker 9>the main thing that should drive the reaction here is

0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:31.720
<v Speaker 9>that in this announcement, Pfizer, which has a fiduciary duty

0:25:31.760 --> 0:25:34.960
<v Speaker 9>to maximize its profits and to update shareholders on its guidance,

0:25:35.440 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 9>did not update its guidance. The company said this thing

0:25:38.520 --> 0:25:40.720
<v Speaker 9>that ostensibly means we're going to make less money, at

0:25:40.760 --> 0:25:43.880
<v Speaker 9>least that's how the president characterized it, but didn't actually

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:45.920
<v Speaker 9>say we're going to make less money, which of course

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:48.560
<v Speaker 9>legally they're required to do. I feel like that through

0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:51.240
<v Speaker 9>line is maybe the lens maybe not cynicism, but the

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:54.160
<v Speaker 9>lens of reality that people should look at these announcements.

0:25:54.280 --> 0:25:56.040
<v Speaker 2>Look no further than the share price reaction.

0:25:56.280 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 4>I said, yes, sir, I'm like, why is this stock

0:25:58.359 --> 0:26:01.520
<v Speaker 4>rallying They're going to make less money? I just made

0:26:01.600 --> 0:26:03.760
<v Speaker 4>no sense everyone's like, well, it's all about the tiiff thing,

0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:06.159
<v Speaker 4>and I'm like, true, and that is certainly a part

0:26:06.200 --> 0:26:06.359
<v Speaker 4>of it.

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:08.239
<v Speaker 3>But I'm like, they're going to make less money. How

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:09.120
<v Speaker 3>can this be a good thing?

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:12.399
<v Speaker 9>Right? So, I think the relief that you're seeing in

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:16.160
<v Speaker 9>the share price reaction is twofold or maybe even threefold one.

0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:19.400
<v Speaker 9>It alleviates the threat that the Trump administration was really

0:26:19.440 --> 0:26:21.560
<v Speaker 9>going to come down hard with an aggressive policy that

0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:23.679
<v Speaker 9>would be on the books, that would really constrain what

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:27.520
<v Speaker 9>drug companies could charge. Instead, we get this voluntary, relatively

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 9>vague promise from Pfizer that is expected to set a

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:33.159
<v Speaker 9>template for the company's peers, Eli, Lilly, Murke, etc. They

0:26:33.200 --> 0:26:35.120
<v Speaker 9>will probably all have their day at the Oval Office

0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:37.160
<v Speaker 9>to do a similar kind of dog and pony show.

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:39.720
<v Speaker 9>And then furthermore, what's established is that if you make

0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:42.399
<v Speaker 9>those promises, you get a reprieve from tariffs. Which is

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.080
<v Speaker 9>the other kind of overhang for the entire sector, is

0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 9>this fear that the import of medicines from Europe would

0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 9>face levies. Of the President has said one hundred two

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:53.240
<v Speaker 9>hundred percent. The notion that if you just go out

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:55.440
<v Speaker 9>there and say we're going to follow what the administration

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:57.440
<v Speaker 9>wants on drug pricing. We get that alleviation.

0:26:57.680 --> 0:27:00.320
<v Speaker 4>DEBI just quickly, just to be fair, I mean, viser

0:27:00.359 --> 0:27:03.399
<v Speaker 4>come back and said this is going to impact us

0:27:03.400 --> 0:27:06.880
<v Speaker 4>financially or it's not going to haven't gotten any clarification

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:07.760
<v Speaker 4>from the company on this.

0:27:07.920 --> 0:27:09.640
<v Speaker 9>They have not. There hasn't been a follow on filing

0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:11.879
<v Speaker 9>with the SEC kind of making clear that they're restating

0:27:11.880 --> 0:27:14.240
<v Speaker 9>any guidance. And furthermore, what they've said is that the

0:27:14.359 --> 0:27:17.000
<v Speaker 9>terms of their agreement with the White House are confidential,

0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:20.120
<v Speaker 9>so respectfully, we can only conclude what's been said publicly.

0:27:20.560 --> 0:27:22.440
<v Speaker 2>Damien, sit tight. We're going to bring in Angie Frank.

0:27:22.520 --> 0:27:25.480
<v Speaker 2>She's CEO of the private health company calder Rose. The

0:27:25.520 --> 0:27:29.360
<v Speaker 2>firm does drug discount management. It uses AI as well

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:32.920
<v Speaker 2>as communicating with different parties involved in the negotiating process

0:27:33.000 --> 0:27:37.680
<v Speaker 2>to get consumers the best prices. She joins us from Wisconsin. Angie,

0:27:38.040 --> 0:27:39.879
<v Speaker 2>I'll ask you the same question that I asked Damien,

0:27:39.960 --> 0:27:42.800
<v Speaker 2>because you're right in the middle of this drug pricing thing.

0:27:42.920 --> 0:27:44.480
<v Speaker 2>Are drug price is going to come down as a

0:27:44.520 --> 0:27:46.320
<v Speaker 2>result of what we saw at the White House yesterday.

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.639
<v Speaker 10>I think what Damian said there's some truth to that.

0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:52.720
<v Speaker 10>I think at the end of the day, we won't

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:55.760
<v Speaker 10>all feel it immediately, but I do think drug prices

0:27:55.800 --> 0:27:58.680
<v Speaker 10>are going to come down. I think the announcement yesterday

0:27:58.720 --> 0:28:02.040
<v Speaker 10>is a big change to this system, and it is

0:28:02.160 --> 0:28:06.520
<v Speaker 10>the first step in what I think will be multiple steps.

0:28:06.560 --> 0:28:10.720
<v Speaker 10>We're certainly opening up more channels for patients to access

0:28:10.760 --> 0:28:14.639
<v Speaker 10>their drugs at more affordable prices. And I think the

0:28:14.840 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 10>underlying the medicaid price that states currently pay is going

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:22.920
<v Speaker 10>to come down. Based on Pfizer's announcement yesterday.

0:28:24.320 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 9>Well, that's interesting. What would the mechanism for that be,

0:28:26.720 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 9>because that's what I found myself wondering even yesterday in

0:28:29.520 --> 0:28:32.920
<v Speaker 9>the announcement, which granted was lacking key details for obvious reasons,

0:28:33.040 --> 0:28:36.120
<v Speaker 9>is very new, but why would this kind of set

0:28:36.160 --> 0:28:38.560
<v Speaker 9>in motion a snowball that would end with patients paying

0:28:38.640 --> 0:28:39.680
<v Speaker 9>less at the pharmacy count?

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:28:41.640 --> 0:28:44.640
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so I think, you know, if you look at

0:28:44.760 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 10>the overall list prices starting to come down to an

0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:55.720
<v Speaker 10>MFN like number, and that opening yes most favored Nations exactly,

0:28:55.760 --> 0:28:59.760
<v Speaker 10>and that opening up more channels for patients to access

0:28:59.800 --> 0:29:03.240
<v Speaker 10>their drugs at lower rates. I do think the direct

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 10>model that the website that was also announced yesterday, which

0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:10.960
<v Speaker 10>opens up a channel for patients to be purchasing directly

0:29:11.040 --> 0:29:15.040
<v Speaker 10>at lower costs, could really have a ripple effect on

0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:19.040
<v Speaker 10>the way benefits are offered and how employers and self

0:29:19.040 --> 0:29:23.600
<v Speaker 10>insured employers start constructing benefit plans that give their employees

0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:28.280
<v Speaker 10>access to drugs which may bypass other players in the system,

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:31.440
<v Speaker 10>the traditional players in the system, middlemen that have been

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.960
<v Speaker 10>making money off of off of drug pricing and discounts

0:29:35.000 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 10>and rebate models that really didn't benefit patients directly. So

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:42.520
<v Speaker 10>I think I think the new channels being opened up

0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:46.560
<v Speaker 10>and the new price point at Max's most favored nation

0:29:47.200 --> 0:29:51.080
<v Speaker 10>will over the longer term, have a pretty significant impact.

0:29:51.200 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 4>Nothing confuses me as much as like picking up prescription

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:57.280
<v Speaker 4>and q pons and pharmacy benefits. And I don't know,

0:29:57.320 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 4>it's just kind of crazy, Damien. The PBMs pharmacy benefit managers,

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:03.680
<v Speaker 4>they are being looked at closely like another layer that

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:06.000
<v Speaker 4>drives up costs, and so that is certainly part of

0:30:06.000 --> 0:30:06.960
<v Speaker 4>the narrative here.

0:30:07.240 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 3>So does that potentially.

0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:11.960
<v Speaker 4>Remove that in what we heard from the President and

0:30:12.000 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 4>the CEO of Pfizer yesterday, But then throw in this

0:30:14.960 --> 0:30:18.920
<v Speaker 4>trump OURX, Like what role is that play.

0:30:19.040 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 9>That we need to see play out. But I think

0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:23.240
<v Speaker 9>through the eyes of Pfizer and certainly people in the

0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:26.880
<v Speaker 9>pharmaceutical industry, there is an optimism and maybe a hope

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:30.200
<v Speaker 9>that the agreement announced yesterday, if in fact it's a

0:30:30.200 --> 0:30:33.120
<v Speaker 9>template for other companies, will shift the White House's attention

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:36.720
<v Speaker 9>away from pharmaceutical manufacturers and toward the PBMs and the

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 9>other middleman that you mentioned. And I think to Angie's point,

0:30:39.960 --> 0:30:43.360
<v Speaker 9>there is a potential that trump our X, this sort

0:30:43.360 --> 0:30:45.840
<v Speaker 9>of direct to patient offering that we've heard about. You know,

0:30:46.000 --> 0:30:48.720
<v Speaker 9>there are arguments is suggest how popular that might be,

0:30:48.840 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 9>How many people who don't have insurance would be willing

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:53.080
<v Speaker 9>to pay out of pocket hundreds or even thousands of

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:54.400
<v Speaker 9>dollars a year for a medicine.

0:30:54.680 --> 0:30:56.560
<v Speaker 2>Is that what trump our X would offer is an

0:30:56.600 --> 0:30:58.920
<v Speaker 2>insurance like this is not covered by insurance.

0:30:58.960 --> 0:31:01.040
<v Speaker 9>It would be a cash pay business. And so we

0:31:01.080 --> 0:31:04.040
<v Speaker 9>assume that the majority of customers for it would be

0:31:04.120 --> 0:31:06.680
<v Speaker 9>uninsured or underinsured, because otherwise they could get the drugs

0:31:06.760 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 9>much cheaper through their insurance carrier. But the opportunity, and

0:31:09.600 --> 0:31:11.240
<v Speaker 9>I realize we're getting kind of in weeds here. The

0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:14.760
<v Speaker 9>opportunity is that if one of those direct offerings were

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 9>selling instead to employers rather than patients themselves, then they

0:31:18.400 --> 0:31:20.960
<v Speaker 9>would be truly bypassing the middlemend that exists. This is

0:31:20.960 --> 0:31:24.400
<v Speaker 9>sort of the Mark Cuban model that's drugs exactly. So

0:31:24.600 --> 0:31:26.959
<v Speaker 9>if Trump and you know, I'm using my imagination here there,

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:29.720
<v Speaker 9>this is not something anybody's announced. If trump Orex, the

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:31.920
<v Speaker 9>website that has not yet launched but has been described,

0:31:32.240 --> 0:31:35.400
<v Speaker 9>were to expand its aperture to include employers, then we

0:31:35.400 --> 0:31:38.960
<v Speaker 9>could be talking about legitimate savings for all parties involved

0:31:39.000 --> 0:31:40.520
<v Speaker 9>and a huge change to the way it's done.

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:42.480
<v Speaker 2>Now, Angie, come on back in here and talk a

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:45.280
<v Speaker 2>little bit about the innovation side of things, because Albert

0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:47.840
<v Speaker 2>Gourla at the White House yesterday said it's not just

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:50.160
<v Speaker 2>the American patient that who will be a big winner,

0:31:50.440 --> 0:31:54.520
<v Speaker 2>but it would also be the American innovation and the

0:31:54.560 --> 0:31:58.200
<v Speaker 2>American economy. Perhaps there are those out there who might say, okay, well,

0:31:58.240 --> 0:32:00.760
<v Speaker 2>if companies drug companies aren't able to make as much

0:32:00.760 --> 0:32:04.040
<v Speaker 2>money from the drugs that they sell, R and D

0:32:04.200 --> 0:32:06.240
<v Speaker 2>in this space might suffer. We know it's expensive to

0:32:06.280 --> 0:32:08.200
<v Speaker 2>run the clinical trials and to do the the R

0:32:08.200 --> 0:32:10.200
<v Speaker 2>and D. What do you think it means for American

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:13.560
<v Speaker 2>innovation when it comes to pharmaceuticals, well.

0:32:13.400 --> 0:32:15.520
<v Speaker 10>I think it was great. I agree with Albert on

0:32:15.960 --> 0:32:18.320
<v Speaker 10>all points. I think it's great for America that we're

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:23.080
<v Speaker 10>moving manufacturing and that level of innovation, job creation, et

0:32:23.160 --> 0:32:28.560
<v Speaker 10>cetera to the US. When you when you simplify the

0:32:28.560 --> 0:32:35.120
<v Speaker 10>supply chain and the pricing mechanisms for our current you know,

0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:38.600
<v Speaker 10>drug pricing model. When you simplify that today, there's that

0:32:38.720 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 10>we lack so much transparency and how prices are established

0:32:42.800 --> 0:32:46.400
<v Speaker 10>and who gets which price. And to your point earlier, Carol,

0:32:46.440 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 10>where you mentioned you know, the coupons and the copays

0:32:49.240 --> 0:32:52.280
<v Speaker 10>and all these things are so confusing. They're confusing by

0:32:52.800 --> 0:32:55.920
<v Speaker 10>by design. People are making a lot of money off

0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:59.760
<v Speaker 10>of that confusion and that opacity. When you simplify and

0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:03.760
<v Speaker 10>I have more transparency, you have less waste in the system,

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:07.560
<v Speaker 10>and that waste will feed the top of the funnel.

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 10>That will be dollars that can go directly to the

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:13.520
<v Speaker 10>top of the innovation funnel and enable manufacturers to continue

0:33:13.600 --> 0:33:18.800
<v Speaker 10>to work on and innovate more drugs and more medication

0:33:18.920 --> 0:33:24.160
<v Speaker 10>therapies that help patients with life saving and life changing conditions.

0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:26.680
<v Speaker 10>So it takes two and a half billion dollars to

0:33:26.680 --> 0:33:29.120
<v Speaker 10>bring a drug to market, so every dollar of waste

0:33:29.400 --> 0:33:33.920
<v Speaker 10>compromises our ability to invest in more and more therapies.

0:33:34.000 --> 0:33:36.120
<v Speaker 10>So I think it's going to have a tremendous impact

0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:36.960
<v Speaker 10>over the long run.

0:33:37.040 --> 0:33:38.720
<v Speaker 4>And you just got about a minute left. I mean,

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:41.840
<v Speaker 4>just talk to us about what you do. It's a

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:45.240
<v Speaker 4>data engine, it's information you have. It looks like a

0:33:45.320 --> 0:33:48.280
<v Speaker 4>couple of different constituencies that you work with, But just

0:33:48.280 --> 0:33:50.960
<v Speaker 4>give us an idea and what that tells you about

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:53.400
<v Speaker 4>kind of the drug industry and drug pricing industry what

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:54.200
<v Speaker 4>you have been seeing.

0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:59.240
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, we really have a technology platform will re ingest

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:03.760
<v Speaker 10>you know, large volumes of data. We apply logic and

0:34:03.840 --> 0:34:08.719
<v Speaker 10>rules around various pricing programs and discounts and rebates, and

0:34:08.760 --> 0:34:11.759
<v Speaker 10>then we ensure price integrity that the right price is

0:34:11.800 --> 0:34:14.359
<v Speaker 10>going to the right set of patients and the right

0:34:16.320 --> 0:34:19.160
<v Speaker 10>for that particular therapy. So we're really driving quite a

0:34:19.200 --> 0:34:22.120
<v Speaker 10>bit of price integrity in the system. The constituents that

0:34:22.160 --> 0:34:28.359
<v Speaker 10>we work with include both pharmaceutical manufacturers and providers, and

0:34:28.600 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 10>we really believe fundamentally that ensuring that the providers and

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:38.719
<v Speaker 10>the manufacturers can work more closely directly together, benefits Americans,

0:34:38.719 --> 0:34:40.880
<v Speaker 10>benefits patients, benefits innovative.

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:43.280
<v Speaker 3>Ten seconds, Damien, who we're going to hear from next?

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:43.880
<v Speaker 3>What's CEO?

0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 9>The expectation is that Eli Lilly will be the next

0:34:46.600 --> 0:34:48.480
<v Speaker 9>company to take the stage. The President has said their

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:50.960
<v Speaker 9>name constantly without totally giving it away. But like I said,

0:34:51.000 --> 0:34:53.760
<v Speaker 9>the expectation also is that all of the major peers

0:34:53.800 --> 0:34:55.000
<v Speaker 9>will have their day at the OLAL office.

0:34:55.080 --> 0:34:57.960
<v Speaker 3>All right, well, we will be watching, listening, reading your reporting.

0:34:58.000 --> 0:34:58.640
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much.

0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:02.560
<v Speaker 4>Angie Franks. Of course, CEO of calderis joining us from Wisconsin.

0:35:02.640 --> 0:35:05.040
<v Speaker 4>Damien Gardey, health reporter at Bloomberg News. Here in our

0:35:05.040 --> 0:35:08.600
<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:12.359
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:35:12.440 --> 0:35:13.319
<v Speaker 2>up after this.

0:35:17.280 --> 0:35:21.160
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch

0:35:21.239 --> 0:35:23.879
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five East during

0:35:23.920 --> 0:35:27.360
<v Speaker 1>this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:29.000
<v Speaker 1>Business app, or watch us.

0:35:28.960 --> 0:35:32.360
<v Speaker 4>Live on YouTube. Stock's hire A bit of a rally underway.

0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:34.360
<v Speaker 4>We're staying near our highs of the session. On the

0:35:34.360 --> 0:35:37.279
<v Speaker 4>equity side of things. We've seen yields move back a

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 4>bit on expectations that yes, indeed, we'll get another FED

0:35:40.160 --> 0:35:43.120
<v Speaker 4>rate cut later on. This month, we did have some

0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:47.840
<v Speaker 4>weak private jobs data we're talking about ADP, those numbers

0:35:47.880 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 4>coming in definitely below estimate street estimate.

0:35:51.960 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 2>So shedding of thirty two thousand versus estimates of a

0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:56.600
<v Speaker 2>gain of fifty one thousand.

0:35:56.360 --> 0:35:57.640
<v Speaker 3>That's a bit of a reverse.

0:35:57.920 --> 0:35:59.879
<v Speaker 2>That's exactly where I want to start with. Alexis Brown,

0:36:00.080 --> 0:36:03.520
<v Speaker 2>Robert's COO and portfolio manager at Alexis Investment Partners. They've

0:36:03.520 --> 0:36:05.600
<v Speaker 2>got around one hundred and eighty five million dollars in

0:36:05.600 --> 0:36:09.880
<v Speaker 2>assets under management. She's back with us from Montgomery, Texas. Alexis,

0:36:10.120 --> 0:36:12.120
<v Speaker 2>welcome back. I want to start with the labor market

0:36:12.200 --> 0:36:16.600
<v Speaker 2>and your view on it. Thirty two thousand job shed

0:36:16.880 --> 0:36:20.240
<v Speaker 2>in private payrolls today, fifty one thousand added was the survey.

0:36:20.640 --> 0:36:21.920
<v Speaker 2>Is the labor market cracking?

0:36:23.800 --> 0:36:23.920
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:36:23.960 --> 0:36:25.640
<v Speaker 9>Hi, First of all, thanks so much for having me

0:36:25.800 --> 0:36:26.319
<v Speaker 9>back on.

0:36:27.080 --> 0:36:31.799
<v Speaker 11>No, I don't think it's necessarily cracking. It is definitely

0:36:31.920 --> 0:36:35.600
<v Speaker 11>weakening a bit, but we're heading into a different seasonal

0:36:35.600 --> 0:36:38.840
<v Speaker 11>period once we get through October, so it'll be interesting

0:36:38.840 --> 0:36:41.440
<v Speaker 11>to see what happens from there. I think the reason

0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:44.360
<v Speaker 11>why job numbers were being a little bit more looked

0:36:44.400 --> 0:36:47.279
<v Speaker 11>at today is it because of the government shutdown and

0:36:47.320 --> 0:36:50.880
<v Speaker 11>the probability that we won't get a job number on Friday.

0:36:51.160 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 11>But I think there's a lot of other factors happening

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:57.359
<v Speaker 11>in markets that are going to affect things more than

0:36:57.440 --> 0:36:59.439
<v Speaker 11>necessarily the job market death.

0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:01.920
<v Speaker 5>And we'll have to see what.

0:37:01.760 --> 0:37:04.719
<v Speaker 11>This spurs the FED to do, and if this is

0:37:04.840 --> 0:37:06.960
<v Speaker 11>just a little bit more fuel to the fire for

0:37:07.080 --> 0:37:09.080
<v Speaker 11>the FED to continue cutting rates.

0:37:09.239 --> 0:37:10.800
<v Speaker 3>All right, So let's talk about those factors.

0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:12.960
<v Speaker 4>And I guess what I'm always most interested when we

0:37:13.000 --> 0:37:16.040
<v Speaker 4>talk to somebody who is managing money, big or small,

0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:18.640
<v Speaker 4>if you will, is what their clients are saying, what

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:19.719
<v Speaker 4>investors are saying.

0:37:19.760 --> 0:37:21.480
<v Speaker 3>Are they giving you new money to.

0:37:21.600 --> 0:37:24.240
<v Speaker 4>Invest or they're saying, let's back off, let's put something

0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:27.160
<v Speaker 4>in something safer. Are they buying gold, because it seems

0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:29.719
<v Speaker 4>like everybody's buying gold this year. So give us some

0:37:29.880 --> 0:37:32.840
<v Speaker 4>color about what you are doing or what your clients

0:37:32.920 --> 0:37:34.759
<v Speaker 4>want to do with their investments right now.

0:37:35.920 --> 0:37:38.960
<v Speaker 11>Yeah. So we're tactical managers, so a lot of our

0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:41.440
<v Speaker 11>clients and all of our clients really have a lot

0:37:41.480 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 11>of trust in us to make the changes necessary in

0:37:45.280 --> 0:37:48.840
<v Speaker 11>their portfolios and really adapt to changing conditions. So we

0:37:49.000 --> 0:37:52.759
<v Speaker 11>have seen clients adding new money to portfolios, especially as

0:37:52.760 --> 0:37:56.840
<v Speaker 11>we've worked through the low's last April and continuing onward.

0:37:57.440 --> 0:38:01.279
<v Speaker 11>For example, in our tactical portfolios, we've really changed our

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:06.279
<v Speaker 11>equity positions throughout the past year, going from over over

0:38:06.520 --> 0:38:08.920
<v Speaker 11>lead on in equities slightly getting all the way up

0:38:08.960 --> 0:38:12.320
<v Speaker 11>to almost ninety percent on a seventy percent benchmark equity

0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:16.920
<v Speaker 11>portfolio to now being slightly underweted about sixty five percent,

0:38:17.120 --> 0:38:20.439
<v Speaker 11>and within those having a lot of fluctuations as we've

0:38:20.480 --> 0:38:24.560
<v Speaker 11>seen markets change, and respecting the fact that we're up

0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:27.160
<v Speaker 11>four percent in the past month, seven percent in the

0:38:27.160 --> 0:38:30.439
<v Speaker 11>past quarter, fifteen percent year to date, and just law

0:38:30.440 --> 0:38:32.919
<v Speaker 11>of average when we're aiming to do like a ten

0:38:32.960 --> 0:38:36.480
<v Speaker 11>to twelve percent on that seventy percent benchmark equity exposure.

0:38:37.280 --> 0:38:41.759
<v Speaker 11>Having that ability to change our equity as well as diversify.

0:38:41.920 --> 0:38:45.080
<v Speaker 11>We do own gold, in fact, that's our largest position.

0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:47.719
<v Speaker 11>We're at just under nine percent gold right now in

0:38:47.719 --> 0:38:50.399
<v Speaker 11>that tactical portfolio.

0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:54.359
<v Speaker 2>I want to understand how much upside you see in

0:38:54.400 --> 0:38:56.760
<v Speaker 2>the S and P five hundred right now or US stocks,

0:38:56.760 --> 0:38:59.560
<v Speaker 2>I guess more generally, Bank of America out with a

0:38:59.600 --> 0:39:03.640
<v Speaker 2>note that it says the sentiment indicates that it's hardly euphoric.

0:39:03.920 --> 0:39:06.560
<v Speaker 2>They essentially have this indicator, it's the cell side indicator.

0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:10.399
<v Speaker 2>It retracts recommended allocations to US equities among different Wall

0:39:10.440 --> 0:39:13.920
<v Speaker 2>Street strategists. It remained flat in September fifty five and

0:39:13.920 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 2>a half percent compared to the dot com bubble in

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:19.840
<v Speaker 2>two thousand saw cell side equity allocations search above seventy percent,

0:39:20.280 --> 0:39:23.040
<v Speaker 2>and then in two thousand and seven clearing sixty five percent.

0:39:23.120 --> 0:39:26.040
<v Speaker 2>So essentially BAA saying there's more room to run? Do

0:39:26.080 --> 0:39:26.640
<v Speaker 2>you agree?

0:39:28.360 --> 0:39:31.160
<v Speaker 11>I would agree. I do think that there is a

0:39:31.200 --> 0:39:33.840
<v Speaker 11>lot of cash on the sidelines. When you talk about sentiment,

0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:36.839
<v Speaker 11>that's a really interesting story. We tend to look at

0:39:36.880 --> 0:39:41.759
<v Speaker 11>the AAII Bull Bear sentiment ratio survey, and while there

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:45.040
<v Speaker 11>has been an uptake in bulls, there has actually been

0:39:45.120 --> 0:39:48.440
<v Speaker 11>even more of an uptake in bears compared to historical averages.

0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:51.279
<v Speaker 11>So there is some room to run on that front. Now,

0:39:51.280 --> 0:39:54.040
<v Speaker 11>we aren't necessarily euphoric at this point, Like I said,

0:39:54.040 --> 0:39:58.120
<v Speaker 11>we're about it in neutral allocation, just respecting how far

0:39:58.239 --> 0:40:01.800
<v Speaker 11>we've come so far this year, so we are looking

0:40:01.840 --> 0:40:05.040
<v Speaker 11>still to participate in future gains. Heading into this year,

0:40:05.320 --> 0:40:11.400
<v Speaker 11>we did a Fibonacci retlacement just simply looking at the

0:40:11.440 --> 0:40:14.719
<v Speaker 11>breakdown in April to the lows and if we were

0:40:14.719 --> 0:40:17.000
<v Speaker 11>to have an equal move back up, and that got

0:40:17.120 --> 0:40:19.560
<v Speaker 11>us to about a sixty four hundred to sixty seven

0:40:19.680 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 11>hundred range on the S and P. Obviously we're knocking

0:40:23.200 --> 0:40:27.399
<v Speaker 11>on that sixty seven hundred today, but I did also

0:40:27.520 --> 0:40:30.120
<v Speaker 11>look at potentially reaching seven thousand and coming back. So

0:40:30.160 --> 0:40:33.480
<v Speaker 11>I think it'll be interesting to see from here where

0:40:33.520 --> 0:40:36.400
<v Speaker 11>we wind up. But there are a lot of reasons

0:40:36.440 --> 0:40:39.680
<v Speaker 11>to still be positive on the market, but perhaps not

0:40:39.800 --> 0:40:43.480
<v Speaker 11>quite as strong as we were heading into this year.

0:40:43.600 --> 0:40:45.920
<v Speaker 3>All right, So what's your biggest worry in this environment?

0:40:46.040 --> 0:40:48.200
<v Speaker 4>One of the things that we talked with when we

0:40:48.280 --> 0:40:52.000
<v Speaker 4>began our show, and we had a conversation with yes

0:40:52.080 --> 0:40:56.040
<v Speaker 4>Alan McCartney over at UBS. She actually has alignment partners

0:40:56.080 --> 0:40:59.160
<v Speaker 4>at UBS, and it was like, the complacency that we're

0:40:59.160 --> 0:41:01.520
<v Speaker 4>seeing the market is really low, and that doesn't need

0:41:01.560 --> 0:41:04.920
<v Speaker 4>to be certainly the indicator that tells all, but there

0:41:05.320 --> 0:41:09.480
<v Speaker 4>is feels like there's a lot of folks thinking that

0:41:09.560 --> 0:41:12.960
<v Speaker 4>this momentum will continue. What is the thing, what is

0:41:13.000 --> 0:41:15.640
<v Speaker 4>the thing that you keep your eye on that says that, well,

0:41:15.680 --> 0:41:20.360
<v Speaker 4>maybe there is problems like the you know, today's labor data.

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:22.960
<v Speaker 11>So I would think that the main thing that we're

0:41:23.000 --> 0:41:24.920
<v Speaker 11>looking at right now that gives us a little bit

0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:29.120
<v Speaker 11>of pause is just valuations being a little bit rich

0:41:29.360 --> 0:41:32.439
<v Speaker 11>and once again just respecting how far we've already come

0:41:32.800 --> 0:41:35.920
<v Speaker 11>in such a short time period and just recognizing that

0:41:36.160 --> 0:41:39.680
<v Speaker 11>perhaps that means that we'll have some room to pull back.

0:41:39.960 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 11>And honestly, there's a lot of strong parts to the

0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:45.800
<v Speaker 11>market right now, though, as you pointed out, momentum. We

0:41:45.880 --> 0:41:49.239
<v Speaker 11>are strong believers in momentum and innovation, and it tends

0:41:49.360 --> 0:41:52.520
<v Speaker 11>to be that if there's a strong Q three which

0:41:52.600 --> 0:41:55.160
<v Speaker 11>obviously this was a very strong Q three in markets,

0:41:55.320 --> 0:41:58.359
<v Speaker 11>that that momentum tends to carry forward through Q four.

0:41:59.280 --> 0:42:03.719
<v Speaker 11>That being said, we are still watching evaluations and the

0:42:03.719 --> 0:42:08.439
<v Speaker 11>different moving factors, for example, federal reserve policy, seeing how

0:42:08.480 --> 0:42:13.440
<v Speaker 11>that affects things going forward. If there is a pullback

0:42:13.520 --> 0:42:16.280
<v Speaker 11>heading through Q four, we're probably going to be biased

0:42:16.280 --> 0:42:19.080
<v Speaker 11>to actually buy into that, although more patient than we

0:42:19.239 --> 0:42:23.759
<v Speaker 11>have been prior to reaching these valuations, but if we

0:42:23.840 --> 0:42:26.440
<v Speaker 11>run up a lot through Q four. That would probably

0:42:26.480 --> 0:42:28.759
<v Speaker 11>be our indicator to pull back exposure a little bit.

0:42:28.840 --> 0:42:32.480
<v Speaker 4>Hey, one last thing, just got thirty forty seconds here, Alexis,

0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:36.080
<v Speaker 4>what about that AI trade? How much are your investors saying, yeah,

0:42:36.200 --> 0:42:39.160
<v Speaker 4>give me exposure or and if so, how do they

0:42:39.200 --> 0:42:40.120
<v Speaker 4>want that exposure?

0:42:40.239 --> 0:42:42.920
<v Speaker 3>Just quickly. We like AI, Like.

0:42:42.880 --> 0:42:46.440
<v Speaker 11>I said, big big proponents of innovation. We're not in

0:42:46.520 --> 0:42:49.399
<v Speaker 11>the business of finding the next Apple and Google. We'd

0:42:49.480 --> 0:42:52.600
<v Speaker 11>rather go ahead and invest in those strong fortress balance

0:42:52.600 --> 0:42:55.640
<v Speaker 11>sheet companies. But really the exciting part of AI to

0:42:55.800 --> 0:42:58.560
<v Speaker 11>us is how it will affect the market in general

0:42:58.719 --> 0:43:01.880
<v Speaker 11>and all these other companies, say a Walmart, a Caterpillar,

0:43:02.000 --> 0:43:05.640
<v Speaker 11>that will use AI to boost productivity rather than specifically

0:43:05.719 --> 0:43:07.799
<v Speaker 11>trying to find that sexy AI play it.

0:43:07.760 --> 0:43:09.480
<v Speaker 3>SAP, all right, Going to leave it there.

0:43:09.560 --> 0:43:11.920
<v Speaker 4>Hey, good to check in with you, Alexis Brown Robert

0:43:12.040 --> 0:43:15.480
<v Speaker 4>COO and portfolio manager at Alexis Investment Partners around one

0:43:15.520 --> 0:43:18.200
<v Speaker 4>hundred and eighty five million dollars in assets under management,

0:43:18.239 --> 0:43:21.040
<v Speaker 4>joining us once again from Montgomery, Texas.

0:43:21.200 --> 0:43:26.640
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:43:26.800 --> 0:43:30.840
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