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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Here on the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for making us part of your Monday here

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Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio on the satellite channel one twenty one,

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Speaker 3: or on YouTube however you get us. It's good to

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Speaker 3: have you as part of our conversation. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: assemble our panel in a moment as we turn our

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Speaker 3: attention from AI here to mass deportations. I was wondering

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Speaker 3: what we would see over the weekend as the Trump

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Speaker 3: administration invoked the Alien Enemies Act and kicked out a

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Speaker 3: statement saying, as much we talked about this, remember on

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Speaker 3: Friday a bit, this would be the law last used

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Speaker 3: in World War II. As a matter of fact, in

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Speaker 3: the ten of Japanese Americans to immediately deport any Venezuelan

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Speaker 3: citizen who the administration says is a member of the

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Speaker 3: criminal gang trend Dee Arragua, you've heard Donald Trump mention

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Speaker 3: this gang what they call a hybrid criminal state perpetrating

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Speaker 3: an invasion. Therefore the use of this law to deport

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Speaker 3: dozens of people over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It went to.

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Speaker 3: Court as these deportations began, five Venezuelans and federal custody

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Speaker 3: filed the class action lawsuit. The US district court judge

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Speaker 3: then issued a restraining order said you can't put them

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Speaker 3: on airplanes. Here. The five who filed the class action

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Speaker 3: lawsuit a lawsuit said it would violate federal law and

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Speaker 3: the Constitution's guarantee to do process. We found ourselves in

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Speaker 3: a situation where the judge said, turn the planes around

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Speaker 3: and bring the detainees back. The White House chose not

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Speaker 3: to because the airplane was over international waters. It did

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Speaker 3: not get back to Venezuela. Actually went back to L Salvador.

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Speaker 3: Two hundred and thirty eight detainees put inside a terrorism

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Speaker 3: confinement center where they'll be held for at least a year.

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Speaker 3: This has set up a massive legal standoff that some

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Speaker 3: people think is going to go to the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 3: This whole idea of using the Alien Enemies Act, and

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Speaker 3: this would usher in the mass deportations that a lot

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Speaker 3: of people have been waiting for We've been kind of

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Speaker 3: seeing the administration nibble around the edges here, but the

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Speaker 3: idea of putting hundreds of people on airplanes is more

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Speaker 3: of what Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail. And

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Speaker 3: it's where we begin our conversation with our political panel.

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Speaker 3: Jenny Shanzano is whe Us Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst

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Speaker 3: and senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the Study

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Speaker 3: of the Presidency in Congress, and our Republican strategist today.

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Speaker 3: John Seaton is back founder CEO Echo Canyon Consulting. Great

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Speaker 3: to see you both, hear Genie, is this going to

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Speaker 3: go to the Supreme Court, because this would be one

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Speaker 3: of the pillars, frankly, of the Trump campaign. Mass deportations.

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Speaker 3: The work that Tom Holman is up to could hinge

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Speaker 3: on what the court says here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this very well could and I think

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Speaker 4: that that is the only potential good news out of

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Speaker 4: this very distressing story over the weekend is that the

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Speaker 4: administration said it will file in the Supreme Court, which

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Speaker 4: is what we want them to do. We want them

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Speaker 4: to file and listen to court orders. Of course, the

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Speaker 4: concern here, as you just went through it beautifully. Is

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Speaker 4: that the order given over the weekend they did not

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Speaker 4: listen to. And so yes, this very well could go

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Speaker 4: to the court. And we really need to hope that

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Speaker 4: the administration is not openly defying court orders. And that's

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Speaker 4: of course the concern, and why the timing of the

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Speaker 4: flights and when they landed and all of those kinds

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Speaker 4: of things matters so much. And I would just say,

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Speaker 4: we also need to think about where these folks were sent.

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Speaker 4: President b. Kella is defined or described as a millennial authoritarian.

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Speaker 4: He is defined as the coolest dictator in the world.

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Speaker 4: He posts right after these folks landed and he hears

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Speaker 4: about the order oops too late with a laughing emoji

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Speaker 4: that Secretary of State Rubio actually retweets. That is a

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Speaker 4: pretty startling turnabout for Secretary Rubio.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk retweeted that as well. The oops too late

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Speaker 3: tweet recirculated by the White House Communications director as well.

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Speaker 2: John Seaton, what do you think about this?

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Speaker 3: I think, if I'm reading Genie correctly here, it's not

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Speaker 3: so much the deportation but the refusal to turn the

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Speaker 3: plane around when a judge said as much. The White

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Speaker 3: House has been really careful about abiding by the courts,

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Speaker 3: saying that we'll do what the courts say, and we

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Speaker 3: will we will exercise our to appeal. Was this a

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Speaker 3: good look for the White House?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 6: Well, given away the plane was and I understand that,

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Speaker 6: you know, there's there's there's there's still some question there.

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Speaker 6: It's unclear whether this was the right legal decision or not.

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Speaker 6: And look, my my often disclaimer, I'm not a constitutional attorney,

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Speaker 6: but I do know politics, and I think the politics

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Speaker 6: of this are actually quite good for the White House.

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Speaker 6: I think after years and years of an action when

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Speaker 6: it comes to illegal immigration, and certainly legal immigration, immigrants

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Speaker 6: who wind up causing mischief on our on our soil,

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Speaker 6: joining gangs and that kind of thing, President Trump on

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Speaker 6: the campaign trail was extremely clear that those folks would

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Speaker 6: be would be sent out. And so as this winds

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Speaker 6: its way through the courts, I do think that we

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Speaker 6: need to keep our eye on the politics as well,

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Speaker 6: and I think the politics here are really good for

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Speaker 6: the Trump administration and the White House.

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Speaker 3: Ginny, we heard from the Press secretary following this. By

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Speaker 3: the way, the judge made this disorder from the bench

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Speaker 3: seven o'clock on a Saturday night. And I, by the way,

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Speaker 3: to John's point, let's be clear, no one here is

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Speaker 3: a legal analyst.

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Speaker 2: This is politics we're talking about.

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Speaker 3: The White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt says the order,

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Speaker 3: which had no lawful basis, was issued after the terrorist

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Speaker 3: TDA aliens had already been removed from US territory. The

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Speaker 3: written order referring to the judge here and the administration's

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Speaker 3: actions do not conflict. Do they not have a case

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Speaker 3: to make?

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Speaker 2: There?

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Speaker 4: They have a case to make, and we'll have to

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Speaker 4: hear there's the judges going to hear hold a hearing

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Speaker 4: today on this and try to get down to what

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Speaker 4: happened to Tounu and what the problem is. His remedies.

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Speaker 4: His hands are pretty much tied. There's not a lot

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Speaker 4: he could do beyond issuing a contempt order which really

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Speaker 4: has no teeth. And that's again if he found that

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Speaker 4: they had defied a court order. But the reality is

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Speaker 4: is that this is why the politics being in Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump's favor are why they are testing this aggrandizement of

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Speaker 4: power with very very unsavory characters potentially, although again we

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Speaker 4: don't know because there's been no proof that all one

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Speaker 4: hundred and thirty plus of these people were members of

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Speaker 4: this gang. But let's not forget this matters to all

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Speaker 4: of us, because what have we been taught from the

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Speaker 4: time we were school children that, as Felix Frankfurter said

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Speaker 4: many years ago, the rights and liberties we enjoy we

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Speaker 4: have gained on the backs of some very not nice people.

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Speaker 4: That's a quote, and that is absolutely true. And you

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Speaker 4: have to think about that. We get our liberties and

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Speaker 4: rights because you have to give the same liberties and

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Speaker 4: rights and due process to people who you don't like

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Speaker 4: and people who may be unsavory as you do to yourself,

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Speaker 4: because if you don't, you are in danger of losing

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Speaker 4: them for all of us. So, yeah, it matters politically,

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Speaker 4: but it also matters in a democracy, and it matters

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Speaker 4: in a constitutional democracy, in particular, what.

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Speaker 3: Happens, John Seaton, when the real mass deportations begin, assuming

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Speaker 3: this takes place, and you start seeing family separations and

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Speaker 3: so forth, when we're not talking about hardened criminals like

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Speaker 3: you do in a gang from Venezuela like this to

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Speaker 3: the politics, which is what you're pointing us to change, Well, yeah, I.

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Speaker 6: Think it's a fair question, and I do think that

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Speaker 6: there's a lot of work to be done to first

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Speaker 6: focus on those who have broken the law, those who

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Speaker 6: are again causing trouble on our soil, those are in gangs,

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Speaker 6: those who are you know, creating violence in our schools

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Speaker 6: and in our communities. I do think that the the

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Speaker 6: initial targets, if you will, of these deportations will be

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Speaker 6: folks who really have been have been causing problems here

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Speaker 6: and again, there have been years of not decades, of

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Speaker 6: an action when it comes to when it comes to

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Speaker 6: dealing with this crisis, and so I do think that

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Speaker 6: that is where the focus is going to be, at

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Speaker 6: least in the short term. And I really think again

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Speaker 6: that that it will be applauded by by most voters,

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Speaker 6: by most American people who really don't understand why the

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Speaker 6: government can't do more to keep these communities safe. And

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Speaker 6: so as it progresses, I do think that the administration

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Speaker 6: will keep a very close eye on how the politics

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Speaker 6: are playing. But again, I think, at least in the

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Speaker 6: short term, as long as the targets are folks who

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Speaker 6: are in gangs, who are causing trouble in the United States,

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Speaker 6: I think that this is going to be a political

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Speaker 6: politically advantageous to the White House.

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Speaker 2: Do you see that, Genie.

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Speaker 3: I know you don't disagree with it, but think of

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Speaker 3: the traction that Donald Trump got talking about Aurora on

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Speaker 3: the campaign trail, an apartment building full of hardened Venezuela

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Speaker 3: and gang members. Is there a difference for you here

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Speaker 3: politically speaking, when you have folks like this. We're just

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Speaker 3: showing you images of them on YouTube here shackled being

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Speaker 3: carried towards this detention center. These are pretty tough guys.

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Speaker 3: We're talking about a lot different than, for instance, family

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Speaker 3: separations that many foresaw when it came to mass deportations.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's just the point. We don't know who

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Speaker 4: they are. As far as we know. The government has

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Speaker 4: not said what they're charged with. We don't even quite frankly,

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Speaker 4: know if they are all members of this gang. We

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Speaker 4: are just going on faith that the government is right

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Speaker 4: on that. But that's why we have due process in

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Speaker 4: the United States. You don't, going back well before the founding,

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Speaker 4: just pick people off the street, put them in jail

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Speaker 4: and throw away the key. Nor do you send them

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Speaker 4: to El Salvador for supermax prisons that are now operating

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Speaker 4: very much like Guantanamo Bay for a payment from a tyrant.

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Speaker 4: You'd give them the due process rights that we fought

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Speaker 4: a revolutionary war for and you provide them with that.

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Speaker 4: And if they are indeed I have committed crimes, they

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Speaker 4: are held responsible. But we follow a process. We are

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Speaker 4: not a lawless country. And that's the point.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'll see what the judge says.

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Speaker 3: Because there's going to be another ruling on this coming,

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Speaker 3: John Seaton, we only have one minute left. If this

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Speaker 3: goes to the Supreme Court. To the politics stay in

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's favor.

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Speaker 7: I think they do.

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Speaker 8: I think they do.

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Speaker 6: It's unclear obviously what the what the court will decide.

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Speaker 6: It has proven to be quite an independent court, and

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Speaker 6: even the Trump appointees on the Court have ruled against

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Speaker 6: the White House in this in in in this administration.

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Speaker 6: So but having said that, I think that people are

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Speaker 6: going to you know, we'll see how the court decides.

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Speaker 6: I do think the politics remain in the White House's

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Speaker 6: favor as long as the people who were being sent

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Speaker 6: out have have have kind of met this profile of

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Speaker 6: of of of gang members and folks who have caused

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Speaker 6: violence in our communities.

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Speaker 2: John Seaton and Geni Shanzino.

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Speaker 3: Our great panel will be back in our second hour

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Speaker 3: on Balance of Power as we welcome our global television

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Speaker 3: audience to the conversation. We're going to get into this

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Speaker 3: much more, by the way, with Robert mcwad or, the

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Speaker 3: constitutional lawyer practicing criminal defense civil rights lawyer, is going

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Speaker 3: to join us from Arizona, always with a fascinating take

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Speaker 3: on what's happening. I'm Joe Matthew Kayley lines on the

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Speaker 3: way in next to so keep it right here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E'stern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 9: When Caroline Love at the White House Press Secretary begins

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Speaker 9: the briefing which is expected this hour and will bring

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Speaker 9: you any headlines from it, and as we already mentioned,

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Speaker 9: she's likely to face questions as well around this deportation

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Speaker 9: flight to Al Salvador and the alleged gang members who

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Speaker 9: were on board of that aircraft and joining us now

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Speaker 9: with more on that as Robert Warder, welcome back to

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Speaker 9: Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Robert, he,

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Speaker 9: of course, as a constitutional lawyer in practicing criminal defense attorney,

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Speaker 9: when we consider the grounds the administration said it had

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Speaker 9: here in effectively defying the order, they argue they did not.

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Speaker 9: They say the order wasn't applicable because they were in

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Speaker 9: international airspace already by the time that it came down.

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Speaker 7: Will that hold water. No.

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Speaker 10: Let's say that, for instance, you have an airplane that

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Speaker 10: blows up across the Atlantic Ocean. Everybody knows that the

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Speaker 10: families of the victims can sue in federal court because

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Speaker 10: there's still jurisdiction over that. Now, once it hits another territory,

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Speaker 10: that's a different matter. Once it lands, then the courts

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Speaker 10: lose jurisdiction. But that's really just a very weak argument

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Speaker 10: that they're going to make that somehow because it's still

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Speaker 10: international waters or over international waters, that the court does

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Speaker 10: not have jurisdiction. That's just not how the law works.

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Speaker 3: Well, there are a couple of things to talk about here, Robert,

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Speaker 3: and it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 3: idea of using the Alien Enemies Act in this case

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Speaker 3: may also be challenged.

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Speaker 10: What should come of it, Oh, the Trump administration should lose.

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Speaker 10: This had to have been concocted up by the Trump

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Speaker 10: pr people. I'm guessing this was someplace in the deep

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Speaker 10: recesses of the brain of Stephen Miller, that somehow he

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Speaker 10: came up with this. The legal people would have told

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Speaker 10: him not to do it. Of course, it doesn't matter

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Speaker 10: to Donald Trump. He wants the sound bite. Look the

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Speaker 10: alien It was part of the Alien Sedition Acts. They

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Speaker 10: were passed in seventeen eighty nine by the Adams administration

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Speaker 10: the Federalists. It was a big reason why John Adams

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Speaker 10: lost that election to Thomas Jefferson, who promptly did not

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Speaker 10: ever enforce those acts again. They were forced in the

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Speaker 10: War of eighteen twelve and World War One, but in

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Speaker 10: World War Two they were enforced as part of the

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Speaker 10: justification and turing Japanese Americans in concentration crabs camps, which

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Speaker 10: is a disgraceful episode in American legal history, and everybody

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Speaker 10: now recognizes it as such. So the fact that they're

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Speaker 10: doing these old statutes that have been discredited is one thing.

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Speaker 10: The other thing is the statutes themselves say that it's

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Speaker 10: only in time of war that these things apply. The

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Speaker 10: United States was in a quasi war with France back

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Speaker 10: in seventeen eighty nine, and then, of course the other

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Speaker 10: three examples are actual wars. This is not a war.

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Speaker 10: The government of Venezuela is not planning to invade the

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Speaker 10: the United States of America, So this is just an

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Speaker 10: absurd application of a discredited statute.

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Speaker 9: Okay, well, then are there other legal means through which

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Speaker 9: you could see the administration accomplishing the same goal. Though

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Speaker 9: they are saying that these are criminals, that they are

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Speaker 9: deporting people who have inflicted harm or in their words,

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Speaker 9: terrorized Americans, is there no actual legal mechanism to deport

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Speaker 9: them through alternative means other than the Alien Enemies Act?

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Speaker 10: Well, of course there is now. First of all, they

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Speaker 10: are saying they provided no proof. They haven't even provided

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Speaker 10: the names of these young people who were being deported,

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Speaker 10: so we don't know whether they are not. For all

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Speaker 10: we know, they can march in and arrest the two

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Speaker 10: of you and deport you now under this statute saying

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Speaker 10: that you're somehow you know, enemy aliens. There is no

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Speaker 10: control on this and that's why the statute's discredited. So

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Speaker 10: there's nothing really to show that these are actually actual criminals. Now,

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Speaker 10: criminals people committed crimes are specifically deportable statues at UC

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Speaker 10: twelve twenty seven, and the administration has plenty of scope

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Speaker 10: to do that, as the Biden administration did and the

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Speaker 10: Obama administration did. They've always prioritized the deportation of criminal aliens,

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Speaker 10: undocumented criminals. This rhetoric that Oh Biden let all these

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Speaker 10: rapists and murders in is simply a lie. This rhetoric

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Speaker 10: that other countries are emptying their jails, that is a

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Speaker 10: lie that goes back to the Mario boat people in Cuba,

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Speaker 10: way way back during I think it was either the

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Speaker 10: Carter or Reagan administrations. It is simply absurd, and he

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Speaker 10: perpetuates this lie to do something which is a blatant

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Speaker 10: violation of the Constitution.

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Speaker 3: Well, we heard from the White House Press Secretary Caroline

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Speaker 3: Levitt saying the order was invalid.

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Speaker 2: The judge's order.

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Speaker 3: She wrote, quote, a single judge in a single city

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Speaker 3: cannot direct the movements of an aircraft carrying foreign alien

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Speaker 3: terrorists who were physically expelled from US soil weigh in

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Speaker 3: on that as you choose, Robert, what is this going

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Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court?

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Speaker 10: Oh? I think it very likely will go to the

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Speaker 10: Supreme Court. Now, the Supreme Court has already said about

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Speaker 10: the Alien Sedition Acts in nineteen sixty four in The

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Speaker 10: New York Times versus Sullivan, that the acts have never

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Speaker 10: actually gone to the court, but they have been rebuked

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Speaker 10: in the court of history. In other words, the Court

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Speaker 10: of History said that they've always been viewed as suspicious

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Speaker 10: and unconstitutional. So that's the premise in the first place.

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Speaker 10: The application here is absurd. Yeah, it will go to

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Speaker 10: the Supreme Court. This argument about a single judge, you know,

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Speaker 10: that's just the way it works. He issues a temper

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Speaker 10: injunction that can be appealed in order for the courts

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Speaker 10: to hear the actual merits where the administration can make

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Speaker 10: its case. Nobody's being treated unfairly here at all. And

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Speaker 10: by the way, the Trump administration and kind of the

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Speaker 10: allies of Trump had no problem going down to a

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Speaker 10: judge in the Southern District of Texas who was the

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Speaker 10: only judge there to have all of its little things heard,

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Speaker 10: to try to enjoin the Biden ministry from some of

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Speaker 10: its immigration policies. That's simply how the system works, and

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Speaker 10: they are just defying it. John Holman seems to be

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Speaker 10: enjoying defining it well.

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Speaker 9: Speaking of the Biden administration, Robert at the very very

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Speaker 9: end of it, really the last minutes of his presidency,

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Speaker 9: a series of pardons were issued for those affiliated with

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Speaker 9: the January sixth investigation in Congress who are doing that work.

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Speaker 9: President Trump is now arguing, and this is a quote,

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Speaker 9: that those pardons are void, vacant, and of no further

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Speaker 9: force or effects, saying this is because the president used

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Speaker 9: an auto pen to sign them. He hasn't presented any

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Speaker 9: evidence of that. But where do you come down on

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Speaker 9: the argument that it actually nullifies pardons, which are seen

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Speaker 9: as one of the absolute powers of the presidency.

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Speaker 10: The Constitution says the pardons shall be vested in the

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Speaker 10: President of the United States. It doesn't say how that's

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Speaker 10: affected in different years. It's been affected in different ways.

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Speaker 10: I mean, I suppose you could go back to the

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Speaker 10: seventeen hundreds when they actually just use this seal instead

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Speaker 10: of a signature to give the pardon. So I think

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Speaker 10: that's simply absurd that they're arguing that the manner of

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Speaker 10: signature is somehow a problem. I mean, frankly, if the

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Speaker 10: president wanted to roll it up and put it on

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Speaker 10: the claw of a passenger pigeon and send it out

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Speaker 10: by pigeon, that's perfectly fine. Nothing in the constitution prohibits

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Speaker 10: that Biden signed these pardons, and that's it. But you

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Speaker 10: should also look at an eye to actually the politics.

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Speaker 10: If the Trump administration seriously wants to go after Liz

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Speaker 10: Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and all those other people and Fauci,

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Speaker 10: I mean, that would be a public relations nightmare for

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Speaker 10: the Trump administration, because I think these people have backbone

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Speaker 10: and they are perfectly happy to stand up to the

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Speaker 10: whatever absurd charge that Donald Trump and Pam Bondi would

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Speaker 10: concoct in their brains to go after them.

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Speaker 2: Wow, do they let you into Washington, Robert?

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Speaker 3: Are we ever going to see you in the nation's

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Speaker 3: capital or you stay in Arizona for a reason.

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Speaker 10: Well, we'll see what holds in the future. Politics as

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Speaker 10: can be a dirty business.

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Speaker 3: Well, I know that's right. But we like talking with you.

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Speaker 3: We'd love to have you in studios sometimes. It's great

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Speaker 3: to have you back here on Bloomberg TV and Radio,

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Speaker 3: Robert mcwad or, constitutional lawyer, criminal defense, civil rights lawyer,

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Speaker 3: Maricopa County Kaylee. We spent so much time talking with

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Speaker 3: Robert during Donald Trump's legal challenges, remembering the special counsel

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Speaker 3: Jack Smith, who would have thought that we'd be at

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Speaker 3: this point talking to him about a sitting president still

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Speaker 3: butting heads with the courts well.

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Speaker 9: And ultimately having fate potentially decided by the Supreme Court. Remember,

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Speaker 9: the part of the reason that those Trump cases had

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Speaker 9: to go away was because of a court ruling that

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Speaker 9: found he had at least partial immunity for actions taken

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Speaker 9: as president. Now he's president once again, and his actions

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Speaker 9: are once again in legal question.

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Speaker 2: It's remarkable stuff, as we learn in real time.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern Well

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Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

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Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for being with us here on the Monday

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Speaker 3: edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio on satellite

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Speaker 3: channel one twenty one and on YouTube, where we always

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Speaker 3: invite you to join us free of charge search Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Business News Live catch your a live stream on YouTube

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Speaker 3: for the balance of the program. We've been talking a

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Speaker 3: lot about Nvidia already today. We're going to be talking

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Speaker 3: about it a lot all week, and certainly by the

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Speaker 3: time we get to Jensen Wong's big speech at the

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Speaker 3: Global Artificial Intelligence Conference for Developers the GtC. It starts

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Speaker 3: today in San Jose, runs through the week. Wong expected

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Speaker 3: to unveil the new Blackwell right. This is something called

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Speaker 3: Blackwell Ultra, and we'll hear more about its rubin next

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Speaker 3: generation GPU platform. The analysts are drooling over this. Maybe

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Speaker 3: investors are too, but in Vidia has been a tough story,

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Speaker 3: of course on Wall Street lately. You're going to hear

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Speaker 3: a lot of people here from lots of people claim

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Speaker 3: to be experts, a lot of stock analysts right talk

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Speaker 3: about the technical aspects, the fundies, whether you should buy

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Speaker 3: it or sell it, and at what level, whether the

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Speaker 3: AI things run out of steam. You hear this stuff

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Speaker 3: all the time. But we want to right now, on

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Speaker 3: this Monday, before we ever get that far, to just

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Speaker 3: take a step back, turn away from the stock for

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Speaker 3: a minute, turn away from your brokerage account, and listen

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Speaker 3: to an important conversation with a real expert here, not

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Speaker 3: just about Nvidio, but about the AI space overall. It's

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Speaker 3: a conversation that we kind of started here. Think of

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Speaker 3: this as a sequel with Gregory Allen from our conversation

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Speaker 3: following what happened on deep Seek Monday. We sat together

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Speaker 3: right here on deep Seek Monday, when the market was

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Speaker 3: falling on a bed, and they said, this whole AI thing,

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Speaker 3: this whole construct is somehow false. Since then, of course,

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Speaker 3: we've seen the hyperscalers ramp up their spending plans by

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Speaker 3: tens of billions, and I'm sure we're going to hear

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Speaker 3: a lot more about that from Jensen Wog.

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Speaker 2: This week.

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Speaker 3: Gregory Allen bored down into this whole thing to come

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Speaker 3: up with an amazing report. This is a thirteen thousand

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Speaker 3: word dive on Deep Seek, Huawei export controls, and the

437
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 3: future of the US China AI race, Gregory Allen writing,

438
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: it would be a great mistake for policymakers to ignore

439
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 3: Deep Seek or to suggest that its accomplishments are merely

440
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 3: a combination of intellectual property theft and misleading Chinese propaganda policymakers.

441
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 3: He says, need to understand that even while deep Seek

442
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: has in some cases simply implemented innovations already known to

443
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:44,239
Speaker 3: USAI companies, it has also demonstrated genuine technological breakthroughs of

444
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 3: its own that deserve careful consideration as the Trump administration

445
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 3: sets its AI policy agenda. He's with us in studio

446
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 3: once again, Gregory. Great to see you, director of the

447
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 3: Wadwani AI Center at CSIS.

448
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 2: How did I do?

449
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 11: Dude? Greg? And thanks so much for having It's.

450
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 2: Great to see you two.

451
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 3: We had an overwhelming response I can say this on

452
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,719
Speaker 3: the air and specifically on YouTube to your most recent

453
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: interview with us here, and we wanted to continue the

454
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: conversation because you've been doing a lot of work as

455
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 3: we wait to hear from Jensen Wong with what we

456
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: have learned from deep sec. And after what you just said,

457
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 3: you hear a lot of guys talk about what inning

458
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: we're in, because on deep Seek Monday they thought the

459
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 3: game had just ended. When you hear from Facebook, from Meta,

460
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: from Google and the others, we're going to put in

461
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: another sixty billion. We're going to make the biggest data

462
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 3: center you ever saw in your life, the size of Manhattan.

463
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 2: What inning are we in?

464
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 8: Oh, I think we're at most at the bottom of

465
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 8: the third AI story is still unfolding, And just because

466
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 8: every single inning has continued to be shocking doesn't mean

467
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 8: we're done yet. When I think about the deep Seek

468
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 8: news and its impact on Nvidia, there were two big

469
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 8: arguments out there. One was the idea that, oh, my gosh,

470
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 8: if we can be so efficient in using these mos,

471
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 8: then maybe we need fewer Invidia chips. That was obviously

472
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 8: a garbage disc right, indeed, an AWS cloud provisioning of GPUs.

473
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 8: The prices went up that week, right, So as soon

474
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 8: as people said, wow, I can be a lot more

475
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 8: efficient in using these chips, they wanted more of those chips,

476
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 8: not fewer of those chips. But there was a second

477
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 8: line of analysis, which is what about the competitive moat

478
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 8: that surrounds in Vidia? Is in Vidia really the only

479
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 8: game in town? And that's what I dove into with

480
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 8: this paper, which is about the potential alliance of deep

481
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 8: Seek and Huawei to create an alternative, cheap chip ecosystem

482
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 8: that could finally achieve the relevant network effects, the relevant

483
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 8: economies of scale to be a credible competitor to the

484
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 8: Nvidia Kuda software mode.

485
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,479
Speaker 3: Wow, this is a horror movie in the making. In

486
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 3: that world, are we talking about a competitor that's still

487
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 3: using in Vidia chips by routing them around some third

488
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 3: party or something, or in fact working with Taiwan Semiconductor

489
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 3: to illegally make chips using technology they shouldn't have.

490
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 2: Because you touch on that.

491
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 8: This is a big, big problem for the export controls.

492
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 8: So if you remember, we don't want China to have

493
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 8: Advanced AI, so we're not going to sell them Advanced

494
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 8: AI chips. That means we also have to not sell

495
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 8: them the equipment used to make those chips, but we

496
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 8: also can't let them rent that equipment from places like

497
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 8: Taiwan TSMC. And it turns out what we've deduced in

498
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 8: this report from sources that I spoke to, that TSMC

499
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 8: made more than two million Advanced AI chips for Huawei.

500
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 8: Now this is the Ascend series of chips which Huawei's

501
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 8: chip designers have been working on for a long time,

502
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 8: and Smick, a company in China is trying to manufacture

503
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 8: them but struggling mightily. So that assist from TSMC, which

504
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 8: is great at making advanced node logic semiconductors. Getting two

505
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 8: million of these chips from them is a big, big

506
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 8: leg up. Now that's not the end of the story.

507
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 8: Nvidia can still compete. They still have strong advantages. Their

508
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 8: chips are not only higher performing, but they're backed by

509
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 8: a much more robust software ecosystem, which makes it more

510
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 8: desirable to develop on these chips. But if I was

511
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 8: in Vidia, this is the part of the deep seek

512
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 8: story that I would be concerned about, not the efficiency game.

513
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 3: Or if you're the Trump White House, should it not

514
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 3: be as well? We're cutting deals with TSMC to make

515
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: foundries here, when what should we be sanctioning this company?

516
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 8: US policymakers were enraged to learn this news, and that

517
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 8: was the right response, right, we don't want our allies,

518
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 8: people who are under the US defense umbrella, providing national

519
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 8: security critical capabilities to China, and that's what's going on

520
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 8: here now TSMC. Of course they'll say that this was

521
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 8: a shell company, meaning that we didn't know it was Huawei,

522
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 8: it was somebody pretending not to be Huawei. But when

523
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 8: you're making two million advanced semiconductor of chips amazing, what

524
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 8: kind of due diligence practices do you have in place.

525
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 8: If you can't detect a scale sale that size being

526
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 8: Huawei in discuss.

527
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: So then yeah, what do we have in place? And

528
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 3: what does this mean for export controls? This is like

529
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: a joke.

530
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 8: So the Biden administration, this actually happened in the Biden

531
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 8: administration era when these chips were being manufactured, and they

532
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 8: introduced a new rule called the Foundry Rule, one of

533
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 8: the last actions they took on export controls before leaving office,

534
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 8: and it effectively moves all of TSMC from a blacklist model,

535
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 8: you know, the entity list. You're not allowed to sell

536
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 8: to Huawei, You're not allowed to sell to X, to

537
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 8: a white list model. You're only allowed to sell to

538
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 8: the good guys. And we will tell you who the

539
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 8: list of good guys is. So the idea that Huawei

540
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 8: could just create another shell company called, you know, Happy

541
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 8: Chipco doesn't matter. You're not on the white list. It

542
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 8: doesn't matter if you promise not to be Huawei, and

543
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 8: any new companies are going to have to be reviewed

544
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 8: under a very diligent thing. That's the mess that TSMC

545
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 8: has gotten itself into. This failure was so big that

546
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 8: things are never going to be the same for them.

547
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 8: In terms of doing due diligence on new customers.

548
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 3: Incredible to think that this is going on here. And

549
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: if you're Jensen Wong, you're wondering about the security of

550
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: your own ip here of course.

551
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 8: Yes, I mean, in Vidia has been the victim of

552
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 8: major cyber attacks that got pretty dang close to the

553
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 8: crown jewels. Now, counterintuitively, these were not even state run actors.

554
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 8: This is reporting done by Wired a few years ago.

555
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 8: These were folks who just wanted to use in Vidia

556
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 8: chips for bitcoin mining, and they were mad when in

557
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 8: Nvidia adopted a policy prohibiting that, and so they started

558
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 8: cyber attacking in VideA and saying we will release all

559
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 8: your critical intellectual property until and unless, you know, you

560
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 8: lift this bitcoin mining bail.

561
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 11: I mean, that is shocking that just a.

562
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 8: Cyber criminal outfit was able to get so close to

563
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 8: the crown jewels of Invidia. It makes you wonder when

564
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 8: we're dealing with a nation state such as China and

565
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 8: they have their crosshairs aimed at Nvidia, at Open AI,

566
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 8: at everybody who has really valuable AI intellectual property. It's

567
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 8: a big challenge, woit.

568
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 3: This is all pretty scary stuff. We're going to go

569
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 3: into overtime with you. You don't have to leave yet, right

570
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: because this is too important and our listeners and viewers

571
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 3: find this incredibly compelling when you consider the findings that

572
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 3: you have made here. It also suggests that this whole

573
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: deep seek revelation was based on theft. Is that not

574
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: the truth IP theft? Actual hardware theft? Otherwise it wouldn't

575
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: have taken place. But you're saying that doesn't matter. They

576
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 3: still did things with these tools that.

577
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: Are worth our attention.

578
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 11: So this is what's interesting.

579
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 8: The trope about Chinese tech companies used to be they

580
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 8: cannot innovate, they can only copy.

581
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: That's right.

582
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 8: I think the right way to think about deep seek

583
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 8: is they copy when they can, and they innovate when

584
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 8: they can. It is an all of the above approach

585
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 8: to competition with the United States, and that's what makes

586
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 8: it such a real challenge. Now, if you're somebody like Nvidia,

587
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 8: you see deep sek making highly efficient AI models, that's great.

588
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,479
Speaker 8: That means more people are going to want to use

589
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 8: your chips. If you're in Vidia, the real threat is

590
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 8: Huawei because Huawei has advanced AI chip design that they're

591
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 8: trying to get the Chinese government to force everybody to

592
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 8: buy on because in Video would love to still sell

593
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 8: in China, they have to sell a degraded version of

594
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 8: their chip. That's legal under export control law. But Huawei says,

595
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 8: we want the Chinese government to not even allow us

596
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 8: to buy these degraded in Vidia chips. We want them

597
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 8: to force Chinese customers to buy Huawei chips. So now

598
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 8: you're down to what is the actual competitive advantage of Invidia,

599
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 8: and it comes down to software.

600
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 11: In Vidia.

601
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 8: The reason why they're worth so much money is not

602
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 8: that their chips are so amazing. If you look at

603
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 8: an AMD, which is an American competitive video and an

604
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 8: Invidia chip, they're both great chips on the hardware side.

605
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 8: Where Nvidia has a massive edge is on the software side.

606
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 8: Everything is compatible with Invidia chips. They're backwards compatible, they're

607
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 8: forwards compatible. All the big AI software development environments are

608
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,719
Speaker 8: compatible within video. And if you leave in Nvidia chips,

609
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 8: you have to leave that hat software ecosystem and all

610
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 8: of your software starts breaking. You have to create a

611
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 8: bunch of new stuff from scratch. That's what's dangerous, and

612
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 8: that's what Huawei wants to attack and what they would

613
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 8: love to use deep Seek to jump start. Can they

614
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 8: get deep Seek to start developing attractive AI software on

615
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 8: the Huawei ecosystem to start building some critical scale economies

616
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 8: network effects in this alternative ecosystem. That's what in Video

617
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 8: should be worried about on a two year time frame,

618
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 8: on a five year timeframe, on a ten year.

619
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 3: Two So if you're Jensen Wong, this is a real

620
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 3: bummer because you wish you could sell your chips to

621
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: Huawei or have that market right, But if it were

622
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: shut down, if China cut off, and it's pretty close

623
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: to being there already, I guess for a company like

624
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 3: in Video, as opposed to some of the others that

625
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 3: make lower tech chips, wouldn't the company continue to.

626
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: Grow at an enormous rate.

627
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 3: We're gonna hear about backlogs, right, We're gonna hear about

628
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: a pipeline. We're gonna hear about Reuben Blackwell Ultra that

629
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: they can't make them fast.

630
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 11: Enough exactly, So who cares about if you're in Video.

631
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 8: For every chip that comes off the assembly line designed

632
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 8: by Invidia, there are ten people saying, please let me

633
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 8: buy that chip because they are supply constrained they are

634
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 8: not demand constrained. So that is the current situation that

635
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 8: they're facing, and it will continue to be the situation

636
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 8: for many years in the future. It's really if you're

637
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 8: thinking about the long term thing, and remember about in

638
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 8: Nvidia's valuation, Almost all of the value in the stock

639
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 8: price is the terminal valuation, not the five next years

640
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 8: of cash flow generation. It's what they think is going

641
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 8: to be the future. And in Video is saying, right now,

642
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 8: we have these competitive dynamics in place where it seems

643
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 8: clear that there could not even be a company that

644
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 8: could give rise to an alternative ecosystem that's anywhere near

645
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 8: as competitive as ours. And as they're looking at this

646
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 8: Huawei Deepseak alliance for the first time, they're seeing this

647
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 8: is not much right now, but this could grow into

648
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 8: something pretty significant.

649
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: This is incredible. Uh.

650
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,719
Speaker 3: I had a very smart analyst suggest to me that

651
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: when in Video rolls out Blackwell Ultra this week, that

652
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 3: we shouldn't be taken by this.

653
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: It's just another very expensive chip.

654
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 3: When in Vidia starts putting forth new cheap chips that

655
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 3: do this, that's when you have the breakthrough.

656
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: Is that true?

657
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 8: Well, I think they're doing both things simultaneously. I mean,

658
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 8: they have the chip that costs hundreds of dollars and

659
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 8: they have the chips that cost tens of thousands of dollars,

660
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 8: and overall, I think they are still competitive in both markets.

661
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 8: What your analyst might have been talking about is in

662
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 8: video's gap in mobile. Right, if you think about the

663
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 8: next generation iPhone, it's going to have Apple intelligence on it.

664
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 8: Is that being delivered by in video chips. No, it's

665
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 8: being delivered by chips designed by Apple. And if you

666
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 8: think about that, you know in video is dominant in

667
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 8: the data center. They're very strong in PC, they're very

668
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 8: strong in laptop. But on mobile, that's sort of the

669
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 8: question mark for what does the future of intelligence? And

670
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 8: Qualcom would love to say we're going to win. Apple

671
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 8: would love to say we're going to win, but the

672
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 8: future is unwritten here and that's the question mark for

673
00:34:58,760 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 8: in video all right.

674
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 3: Spending time with Greg Reallen here from the wad Wani

675
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 3: AI Center csis on balance of power. It's such a

676
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: great conversation. We wanted to bring this into overtime for

677
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: you when we consider where we're going here in our

678
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: remaining couple of moments with the future of AI and

679
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 3: what this means for the Trump administration.

680
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 2: You're laying out some really important ideas.

681
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 3: Is this White House capable of embracing them and turning

682
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 3: it into policy.

683
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 8: So I think this administration, if you look at who

684
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 8: they've hired, especially in roles that are relevant to export controls,

685
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 8: that are irrelevant to technology competition with China, it is technology.

686
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 8: It is China hawk, China hawk, China hawk, China hawk.

687
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 8: I mean the most hawkish people in the Biden administration.

688
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 8: People I know in the Trump administration said, you know,

689
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 8: they would be a dove compared to the kind of

690
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 8: folks that we're bringing in here. But there is a

691
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 8: question between political will and government capacity. And if you

692
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 8: look at the organization that's in charge of enforcing export controls,

693
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 8: they're looking to cut staff right now when what they

694
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 8: should be doing is increasing staff. And then secondarily, if

695
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 8: you look at the Department of Justice, the group that

696
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 8: has the specific responsibility for enforcing export controls, that group

697
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 8: has just been disbanded and the Department of Justice has

698
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 8: not yet said where those duties and responsibilities are going

699
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 8: to be divvied up. So we are in a position

700
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 8: where we have bet the farm on export controls as

701
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 8: a critical means of technology competition with China. But the

702
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 8: government capacity to execute that strategy is being removed, and

703
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 8: there's no plan right now to what's going to bolster

704
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 8: it back. So I'm really urging folks, I know in

705
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 8: the Trump administration fix this. We need a stronger government

706
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 8: ability to do this. This is not a great place

707
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 8: for like money saving cuts, because you're going to save

708
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 8: pennies and you're going to lose hundreds of billions of

709
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 8: dollars in American you know values.

710
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: This might have to be our next conversation because this

711
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 3: is incredibly important right now, the extent to which the

712
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 3: administration is paying attention to this, because it has so

713
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 3: many plates spinning at once.

714
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 2: Let's get back to the toy store quickly before you leave.

715
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 3: In our remaining moment here, you say we're at the

716
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 3: I believe bottom of the third.

717
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: I've heard a lot about reference turning to inference. What's next?

718
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 2: What is the next breakthrough that we need to see

719
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:08,280
Speaker 2: in AI?

720
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 8: Well, I think so far we've seen AI become increasingly

721
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 8: capable at generating text that is actually a value. Recall

722
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 8: that Sam Altman said in early twenty twenty four that

723
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 8: the performance of his system was quote mildly embarrassing at best. Right,

724
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 8: that was not that long ago. Now he's saying it's

725
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 8: among the top one hundred programmers on planet Earth. You've

726
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 8: seen that the hirings for people who are generating computer

727
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 8: code are way down as people are realizing that these

728
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 8: systems can generate extremely high quality code almost instantaneously. So

729
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 8: the labor market disruptions from AI. They're here now, and

730
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 8: as those capabilities first go after engineering focused, tax we're

731
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 8: tasks were formal verification as possible, they're going to spread

732
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 8: to ever more parts of the economy, and that's going

733
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 8: to lead to a wave of adoption AI and generating

734
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 8: real value. It's not a toy anymore now, it's really

735
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,240
Speaker 8: solving business problems.

736
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 3: That's what it'll be on the toy department. Yes, you

737
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 3: have three young kids, will they write all of their

738
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 3: school essays using AI? How does this not take over

739
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: everything that we do? That's driven from an intellectual point, I.

740
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 8: Think it's really worth asking. I mean, one thing that

741
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 8: you could tell yourself is, in the nineteen fifties, there

742
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 8: was no such thing as a job called a programmer.

743
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 8: Right as we created new technologies, we created new jobs

744
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 8: associated with those technologies, but we do have to ask

745
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 8: ourselves the question, as these things become more and more capable,

746
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 8: and to use the words of folks like Sam Altman

747
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 8: or other folks, these are going to be capable of

748
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 8: doing anything that a computer can do, anything that a

749
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 8: human can do in front.

750
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 11: Of a laptop.

751
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 8: That then begs the question, what are the next jobs?

752
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,240
Speaker 8: What is the future of education? And while there's plenty

753
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 8: of exciting opportunities of using AI for one on one

754
00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 8: tutoring type things to strengthen education, there's this question, what

755
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 8: is the goalpost? What is the job that you are

756
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 8: aiming at? And I think it's very unclear just how

757
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 8: capable these systems are getting and what's going to be

758
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 8: left for humans to do When my kids, you know,

759
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 8: graduate from high school, graduate from college.

760
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,279
Speaker 3: Boy, I can't wait to we all can't wait to

761
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: get the answers to these questions right. Just let me

762
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 3: know when I need the neuralink chip. So I asked

763
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: Gregory Allen, great to see you as always from CSIS.

764
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 3: We brought them back for you and went into overtime

765
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: and another fascinating conversation with the director of the Wawani

766
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 3: AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

767
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: We'll keep tabs on Jensen Wong and of course the

768
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,280
Speaker 3: Big and Nvidia conference over the course of the week.

769
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,959
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

770
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

771
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

772
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

773
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty total.

774
00:39:57,680 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 2: We watch tech shares.

775
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 3: Not the most enthusiasm here, but that goes kind of

776
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 3: for the markets overall. Kaylee, Following the comments from the

777
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 3: Treasury Secretary yesterday, it was a big question about what

778
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 3: would happen. He's not a big worry of mind. When

779
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 3: it comes to corrections, he says they're healthy. Actually, don't

780
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: want to go straight up. Don't want to go straight

781
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: down either, I think would be part of that. But

782
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: also when it comes to the question of a recession.

783
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 3: He sat down for an interview on Meet the Press,

784
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 3: remembering Donald Trump didn't rule it out, and I suppose

785
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: he didn't either.

786
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: Here's what Scott Besson had to say, you.

787
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 5: Know that there are no guarantees who would have predicted COVID, right,

788
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 5: so I can predict that we are putting in robust

789
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 5: policies that will be durable, and could there be an

790
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 5: adjustment because I tell you that this massive government spending

791
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 5: that we'd had, that if that had kept going, we

792
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 5: have to wean our country all of that. And on

793
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 5: the other side, we are going to invigorate the private sector.

794
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 3: The Treasury secretary on NBC News, of course, there is

795
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 3: great concern, Achille about the economy. It's born out in

796
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,720
Speaker 3: the stock market, it's born out in the bond market,

797
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: and a lot of confusion about what the president wants

798
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 3: to do next when it comes to tariffs specifically.

799
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's been born out in polling as well. If

800
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 9: you look at the latest NBC polling that came out

801
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 9: over the weekend, CNN at polling that had come out

802
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 9: before that, a suggestion that while voters largely who supported

803
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 9: Trump supported him on the grounds of expecting he would

804
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 9: have a better economy under him, don't necessarily feel like

805
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 9: steps have been taken in that direction to actually lead

806
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 9: to the tangible improvement.

807
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: Just yet, not a lot of polling data around and

808
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 3: that may actually be a good thing. Sometimes we get

809
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 3: bogged down on the numbers here, and the anecdotal work

810
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 3: that's been done by Center Forward is really something. It's

811
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 3: a great piece of work here talking with voters, a

812
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 3: couple dozen voters about their feelings about any number of issues,

813
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 3: including the economy, and Corey Kramer is the CEO Center Forward,

814
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 3: joining us right now here on balance of power.

815
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 2: Corey, welcome.

816
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 3: As I look at what you heard about the economy,

817
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: voters overwhelmingly concluded the economy and cost of living are

818
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 3: the most important issues for the administration. Many, including some

819
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 3: of his supporters, you write, disapproved of Donald Trump's handling

820
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: of the economy, citing anxiety about tariffs and frustration about inflation.

821
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 2: What happened to animal spirits?

822
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 5: Hi?

823
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 7: How are you good? Afternoon? Thank you so much for

824
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 7: having me. Joe Cayley really appreciate it. You're right, there

825
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 7: was a lot of interesting data that came out of

826
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 7: our research, and I think the three words that I

827
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 7: sort of take away from our research are anxiety, disengagement,

828
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 7: and also hope.

829
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 9: Okay, well, let's talk about the anxiety portion first. If

830
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 9: we can not to start on the negative, but the

831
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 9: anxiety around the economy does not yet seem like it

832
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,800
Speaker 9: has been alleviated even with President Trump in office, although

833
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 9: especially among the Trump voters you talked to, out of

834
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 9: these thirty five that were involved in this research voted

835
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 9: for him because of the economy and his handling of

836
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 9: the economy. What exactly is the disconnect between what people

837
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 9: are feeling and what they're seeing so far from the administration.

838
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 7: You know, the things that the voters really pointed out,

839
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 7: particularly the Trump voters that we followed through the three

840
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 7: phases of this research, were that they were expecting a

841
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 7: little bit more economy related action in the first couple

842
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 7: of months of the Trump administration, and they're seeing a

843
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 7: lot about foreign affairs and engagements with our allies. They're

844
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 7: seeing a lot of things on immigration and DOGE, And

845
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 7: while they are very concerned about the direction and how

846
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 7: much effect the Trump adminstration is having on the economy,

847
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 7: they still do remain hopeful.

848
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 3: I want to hear about the tune out because a

849
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: lot of people just find it easier to stop watching,

850
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 3: stop listening when things either get to be confusing or frustrating,

851
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,720
Speaker 3: And it sounds to me Corey like we have both.

852
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 7: It's true. So Center Forward we've been the premier engager

853
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 7: of bipartisan programming for the last fifteen years in DC,

854
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 7: and we thought it was really important to look at

855
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:08,760
Speaker 7: how voters were engaging in cross party discussions in addition

856
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 7: to discussions with friends, family, how are they engaging with

857
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 7: news social media platforms and so this research was really

858
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 7: different from a lot of research that you find. And

859
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 7: then it was conducted in three different phases. First one

860
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 7: was immediately pre election, the second was immediately post election,

861
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 7: and then third phase was just a few weeks ago,

862
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 7: a couple of months into the Trump administration, and we

863
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 7: followed these same voters and asked them to diary in

864
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 7: response to questions that we asked them. The disengagement that

865
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 7: we're finding over political discourse is quite alarming, particularly for

866
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 7: an organization like Center Ford that really focuses on having

867
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 7: those thoughtful conversations, finding compromise and common ground. And there

868
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 7: is a great deal of disengagement, particularly among women who

869
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 7: are creating many more boundaries for themselves in order to

870
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 7: prove serve their mental health, and that includes not just

871
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 7: stepping away from social media and news, but also parameters

872
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 7: around how they're engaging with neighbors, friends, or colleagues. I

873
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 7: will say the one thing that is encouraging to me

874
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 7: is that overwhelmingly the majority of folks have identified an

875
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 7: area in which they have engaged with people of other positions,

876
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 7: and as a result of those conversations have either softened

877
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 7: their views or come to a greater understanding. So the

878
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 7: lesson that we've learned from this is that those who

879
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 7: go into conversations looking to change someone else's mind are

880
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 7: finding the least value in those engagements. But the ones

881
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 7: who really go into those conversations looking from a place

882
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 7: of curiosity and attempting to educate themselves are finding a

883
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 7: great deal of value of engaging in cross party dialogue.

884
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 9: So that's cross party dialogue, Corey. I'm also interested in

885
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 9: intra party dialogue or dismay perhaps if you're a Democratic voter,

886
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 9: specifically among the one you talk to I'm quoting here

887
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 9: from the research they say they quote aren't sure what

888
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 9: the party stands for these days, and especially what we

889
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 9: all witnessed last week. A House Democratic caucus that voted

890
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 9: against a Republican backed government funding measure, a Senate Democratic

891
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 9: caucus that was fractured and ultimately supporting it led by

892
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 9: the minority leader Chuck Schumer. It does seem like a

893
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 9: party that isn't quite sure where it stands, and that's

894
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 9: being reflected in the people you're speaking with.

895
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 7: And you're right, Cayley, it was reflected in the research

896
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 7: and those when we asked them about how their perceptions

897
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:37,919
Speaker 7: of various parties would be Democratic or Republican Party. The

898
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 7: voters who were identifying the perceptions of the Democratic Party,

899
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 7: we're really looking for more communication from the party on

900
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 7: what they stand for and how to better engage. You're right,

901
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 7: it's very much about communication.

902
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 3: Producer James just put a New York Post story in

903
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 3: front of us here in New York City, Mayor Eric

904
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: Adams reveals he stopped reading the news. Quote, I sleep

905
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 3: so much better, Corey. What does that mean for the

906
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: rest of us who are trying to do this every day.

907
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 7: I know it's tough. It's tough. We have not yet

908
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 7: seen the bounce back. I was hoping a few months

909
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 7: into the new administration that we were going to see

910
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 7: a bounce back and people engaging with the news, but

911
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 7: it is a slow going process. There is still a

912
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 7: great deal of disengagement across there, across their modes of

913
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 7: relationships and communication. But I foresee that we were going

914
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 7: to continue this research in a phase four and potentially

915
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 7: a phase five, and I'm optimistic they're going to see

916
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 7: people bouncing back to engagement and hopefully with media as

917
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 7: well well.

918
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 9: We hope you'll come back and share those updated results

919
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 9: with us. Corey Kramer, CEO of Center Forward, on their

920
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 9: new research talking to thirty five voters in the aftermath

921
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 9: of the election. Thank you so much for being here

922
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 9: with us.

923
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

924
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

925
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

926
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

927
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.