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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. It's on target.

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Speaker 2: It is good.

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Speaker 1: WYOA.

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Speaker 2: That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass

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Speaker 2: and they're sucking for win. That was good.

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Speaker 3: Ready go.

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Speaker 1: In bounder on the baseball pop he Yeah, last way

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Speaker 1: outside Possible the while event.

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Speaker 2: Then here it is ROA.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the award winning Action Network podcast. I'm your

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Speaker 4: host today, Brendan Glasheen. The NCAA tournament makes its turn

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Speaker 4: for home. The Final four begins this Saturday, April second,

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Speaker 4: in New Orleans. Today we are sturfing the player prop

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Speaker 4: market for the two games slate.

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Speaker 1: Featuring Kansas and Villanol.

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Speaker 4: Kansas a four and a half point favorite as it

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Speaker 4: stands right now. And in case you've been living under

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Speaker 4: a raka, historical North Carolina Duke matchup in the primetime game.

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Speaker 4: Over the last ninety nine meetings, UNC has won forty

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Speaker 4: nine games, Duke has won fifty and this is the

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Speaker 4: third time, of course, they will face each other this season.

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Speaker 4: Both coming from the ACC. Joining me today Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 4: He's been with us all March Madness. Director of Predictive

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Speaker 4: Analytics at the Action Network, Doug ze Phil is also

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Speaker 4: back with US Action Network contributor. Glad to have Tanner

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Speaker 4: McGrath joining us this week. He also contributes at the

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Speaker 4: Action Network. So Sean, we'll start with you just before

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Speaker 4: we get into picks and go through each of your

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Speaker 4: player props for the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Again, just two games, four teams to choose from.

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Speaker 4: When you have such a small sample size, now I

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Speaker 4: would assume it gets easier to dissect the field because

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Speaker 4: it's a lot smaller. But what are some things you're

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Speaker 4: keeping an eye out for when you also acknowledge the spreads.

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Speaker 1: The totals and these are just these are.

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Speaker 4: Just massive games for nineteen to twenty two to twenty

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Speaker 4: three year olds and just the stage in New Orleans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's a smaller slate, which means it's easier

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Speaker 3: to dive into each matchup, probably too much, but sports

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Speaker 3: books have adjusted really well, so we have less value

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Speaker 3: to kind of hunt for. So it makes it even tougher,

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Speaker 3: but more fun and challenging. And you know, last week

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Speaker 3: I heard some theories that the rims were angled up

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Speaker 3: and the balls might have been overinflated, but we saw

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Speaker 3: a lot of unders hit, so I'm going to keep

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Speaker 3: that in mind when it comes to point props and

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Speaker 3: things like that, it might be a little tricky, but

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Speaker 3: other than that, I'm playing it straight up. But like

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Speaker 3: I said that, the markets have gotten a lot sharper.

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Speaker 3: We've seen all of these guys play a few games now,

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Speaker 3: so it's a lot tougher this week in my opinion, Doug,

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Speaker 3: how about yourself.

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Speaker 4: To something that you're looking out for based on what

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Speaker 4: you've learned this tournament and how you look.

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Speaker 1: At the final four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, lines are getting a lot more efficient here as

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Speaker 2: we get deep into the tournament, competitions getting tougher. Even

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Speaker 2: if you look at our projections, a lot of unders

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Speaker 2: have been coming in like Scholan said, and they've been

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Speaker 2: money so far. So if you're stuck in between a

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Speaker 2: rock and a hard place with a certain player, prop

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Speaker 2: definitely looked our projections here that they've been really good

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Speaker 2: throughout the tournament.

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Speaker 1: And Tanner, this is your first time joining. Welcome and

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Speaker 1: also just some.

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Speaker 4: Thoughts on how similar to what these guys both said,

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Speaker 4: we've got two games, four teams. What angles are you

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Speaker 4: looking at here for the weekend?

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Speaker 5: Yes, and thanks for having me on Both spreads look

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Speaker 5: pretty efficient. I don't think I see a side on either,

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Speaker 5: but I'm definitely going to look at both unders, specifically

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Speaker 5: first half unders, which have been eleven and one since

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Speaker 5: the start of the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: Very good.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's not waste time. Let's dive into some

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Speaker 4: picks for the weekend. Sean Curdi, we'll start with you.

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Speaker 4: We'll start with Nova in Kansas. You've got a rebounding

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Speaker 4: prop for us.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So the prop I like in this matchup is

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Speaker 3: Jermaine Samuels under seven and a half rebounds. You can

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Speaker 3: get it for even money right now. Over at FanDuel.

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Speaker 3: This one's kind of scary because he has gotten over

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Speaker 3: this in seven of the past eight games. But I'm

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Speaker 3: trusting the numbers here, trusting the matchup. He stayed under

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Speaker 3: this number sixty five percent of the time this season.

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Speaker 3: But with Justin Moore out, Jay Wright has said that

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Speaker 3: he wants to get Eric Dixon more playing time, So,

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Speaker 3: you know, Dixon just getting three to five more minutes

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Speaker 3: is really going to eat into Samuel's rebounding prop here.

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Speaker 3: So that's that's partly why we like it. But they're

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Speaker 3: just there also won't be as many rebound chances overall

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Speaker 3: for Villanova, you know, Kansas ranks in the top forty

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Speaker 3: and offensive rebound rate. They're also a very good shooting team.

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Speaker 3: They ranked twenty ninth in effective field goal percentage, leaning

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Speaker 3: a lot on you know, two point shots, so they're

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Speaker 3: going to take a lot, a lot of high percent shots,

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Speaker 3: fewer rebound chances overall. So that's why we're projecting Samuel's

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Speaker 3: closer to six NAF boards with a sixty one percent

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Speaker 3: chance it's staying under seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're going to talk about that quite a bit.

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Speaker 4: Get the sense justin Moore being out, so it's likely

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Speaker 4: a six man rotation for Villanova against the Jayhawks on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: How about another prop for us in the other game,

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Speaker 4: Duke QNC.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna have fun with this one. I'm

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Speaker 3: going with Moose points scored in the game. Armando Baycott

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Speaker 3: at plus five point fifty. You know, obviously Ben Caro

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Speaker 3: should be the favorite here, and he is. He's plus

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Speaker 3: three twenty, and Brady Mannick is next up at plus

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Speaker 3: four ninety. But we have all three of these guys

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Speaker 3: projected pretty similarly when it comes to points. So Baycott's

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Speaker 3: avalie at plus by fifty, we have them closer to

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Speaker 3: plus four hundred. But Duke's defensive philosophy is to limit

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Speaker 3: freeze and free throws and let teams score inside. They've

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Speaker 3: allowed fifty eight percent of their points this season the

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Speaker 3: two point shots, which is the tenth highest rate in

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Speaker 3: the country. So Baycot being their main point score inside,

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Speaker 3: he should feast here. He did their last matchup. He

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Speaker 3: went ten of eleven from the field, score twenty three points,

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Speaker 3: tied Bancaro for most point scare in the game. So

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Speaker 3: I think it should be a three man race for

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Speaker 3: the top point scores. I think we're going to getting

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Speaker 3: a good deal here at plus by fifty.

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Speaker 4: He's coming off a twenty two to twenty game against

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Speaker 4: Saint Peter's granted the competition a lot different in this matchup.

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Speaker 4: The stat line your reference saying was the blowout win

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Speaker 4: in coach K's final regular.

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Speaker 1: Season game at Camera, and so he was up for

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Speaker 1: the task.

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Speaker 4: Then on a big stage, Doug ze Fold will go

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Speaker 4: with you here and discuss Nova Kansas, and you want

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Speaker 4: to discuss the this Kansas player has been red hot.

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Speaker 1: He's probably been the their X factor here this tournament.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to target Remy Martin's point prop here

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Speaker 2: going over eleven and a half, you can get this

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Speaker 2: best price at minus one thirteen at FanDuel. Looking at

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Speaker 2: Martin's work here, it's important to consider the sample size.

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Speaker 2: He returned in the Big twelve tournament and since then

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Speaker 2: he's averaged thirteen point three points per game, and he's

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Speaker 2: averaged over eleven field goal attempts per game Throughout the

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Speaker 2: NCAA tournament. His volume and his scoring have both been up,

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Speaker 2: and he seems to be rising as the big of

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Speaker 2: the stage gets And if you look at Martin's attempts,

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Speaker 2: he does a lot of his work at the rim

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Speaker 2: and from inside the arc, and Villanova is susceptible at

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Speaker 2: the rim. They've allowed their opponents to make fifty seven

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Speaker 2: percent of their shots and they're only slightly above average

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Speaker 2: from inside the arc. So as long as Martin gets

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Speaker 2: his normal amount of volume, he should be able to

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Speaker 2: go well over this number.

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Speaker 4: I find your pick, Drek, just because Nova likes to

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Speaker 4: slow the game down, as it's well documented, and just

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Speaker 4: I feel, of course that has to go Nova's way, right,

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Speaker 4: Like if the game favors at Kansas pace and they

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Speaker 4: run up the score, which they possibly could then overs

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Speaker 4: could very well end up being in your favor, but

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Speaker 4: I like it.

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Speaker 1: Remy Martin.

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Speaker 4: He's been the man, he's been the go two guy

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Speaker 4: off the benches or sixth man. You've got another pick

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Speaker 4: for us, and we're over on UNC and Duke now, Doug.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So if you read our prop articles throughout the tournament,

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Speaker 2: being Tanner and we had Mike calabres on throughout the

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Speaker 2: last week. We've been doing those articles throughout the tournament.

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Speaker 2: You know, I've been targeting UNC's perimeter defense every matchup

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Speaker 2: that I can, and I found another guy that I'm

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Speaker 2: going to use to pick on them. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: take aj Griffin over one and a half threes. You

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Speaker 2: can get this that minus one sixty on fandle. If

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Speaker 2: you look at Griffin, he's there who Devil's best three

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Speaker 2: point shooter. He's made him at over forty six percent

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Speaker 2: this year and UNC is two hundred and fifth and

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Speaker 2: three point percent in July Loud. But what's important with

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Speaker 2: these kind of props is you need volume, and the

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Speaker 2: volume has been there for Griffin. He's averaged five point

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Speaker 2: six three point attempts over his last five games, and

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Speaker 2: he's went over this number in eighteen to thirty eight

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Speaker 2: games and four of his last six. So considering the pace,

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Speaker 2: the volume, and the quality of shooter, Griffin is pretty

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Speaker 2: much a sure bett to get over this number.

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Speaker 4: Here total right now at one fifty one, and then

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Speaker 4: we head over to Tanner and McGrath.

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Speaker 1: We'll start Nova Kansas.

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Speaker 4: For you, sir, and you like, there's another over here

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Speaker 4: on the Nova side.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is playing right off of Sean's pick. You know,

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Speaker 5: this whole game is about Justin Moore being out and

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Speaker 5: you're wondering who's going to step up for the Wildcats. Well,

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Speaker 5: I'm going to look at Eric Dixon over eight and

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Speaker 5: a half points. It's plus money at DraftKings at plus

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Speaker 5: one ten. Amazingly, More has only missed one game in

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Speaker 5: his three year tenure with the Cats. That one game

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Speaker 5: was against Connecticut earlier this season, and Dixon stepped in,

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Speaker 5: filled all the holes and carried Villanova to a nine

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Speaker 5: point win, scored twenty four point points on ten to

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Speaker 5: fourteen from two point range. And he's just going to

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Speaker 5: get all this extra volume. They're gonna run a six

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Speaker 5: pen rotation. He's going to get the extra three to

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Speaker 5: five minutes. But Another thing is the style. Villanova primarily

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Speaker 5: creates offense by the pick and roll sets and then

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Speaker 5: they try to find spot up three pointers or off

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Speaker 5: the dribble three pointers, but they also post up about

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Speaker 5: eleven percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 1: That's top fifty nationally. On the season.

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Speaker 5: Dixon has gotten forty percent of those opportunities, but second

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Speaker 5: most is more who got twenty four percent of those opportunities.

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Speaker 5: Kansas has a solid post up defense with McCormick and others,

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Speaker 5: but it regressed during Big Twelve play. And so Dixon's

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Speaker 5: going to get the extra volume in this game with

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Speaker 5: more out and I'll happily take eight and a half

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Speaker 5: or nine just as long as we're getting plus money.

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Speaker 1: Very good, now about your pick in Carolina, Duke.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So this play is getting a lot of love

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Speaker 5: on Twitter, which is always a bad sign, but I

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Speaker 5: like it anyways. Brady Mannick over two and a half

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Speaker 5: three pointers made. It's also plus money on FanDuel plus

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Speaker 5: one fifteen. Since calendar flipped to February, Manic is shooting

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Speaker 5: over forty percent from deep. He's been good in every

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Speaker 5: area basically, but he's become a lethal stretch for and

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Speaker 5: during just this NCAA tournament run, So four game stample size,

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Speaker 5: he's launched thirty four three point attempts and made sixteen

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Speaker 5: of them. That's good for a forty seven percent clip.

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Speaker 5: And he's gone over two and a half three point

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Speaker 5: made in all four games and stretching that out further

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Speaker 5: over a ten game stample size dating back to the

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Speaker 5: February twenty first matchup with Louisville, Mannick is averaging seven

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Speaker 5: point six three point attempts per game, shooting forty two

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Speaker 5: percent on those attempts, and going over this line in

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Speaker 5: eight of those ten games. Plus in the two games

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Speaker 5: against Duke this year, he attempted twenty threes and made

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Speaker 5: eleven of them. And that's primarily because if Duke is

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Speaker 5: weak anywhere, it's in three point defense. The Devils are

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Speaker 5: sub two hundred in defensive efficiency against both catch and

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Speaker 5: shoot threes and off the dribble threes per shot quality.

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Speaker 5: So like his hair and beard combos suggests, he's been

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Speaker 5: a flamethrower from deep, and I'll take him to go

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Speaker 5: over two and a half three pointers one more time

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Speaker 5: plus money.

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Speaker 4: All right, Chan's great stuff. Well, I know, oh it's

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Speaker 4: a small slate. So We went around really quickly there

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Speaker 4: for these two games. Looking forward to a great weekend

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Speaker 4: in New Orleans, Villanova, Kansas, Duke UNC for Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 4: Doug Zefel, and Tanner McGrath, Brending, Glas Sheen.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning into the.

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Speaker 4: Action Network podcast and thanks for joining us all March

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Speaker 4: madness long for this player props edition of the pod.

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Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time.