1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. We 7 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: are broadcasting live from the Eisner Amper Global Leaders in 8 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: Real Estate Summit. It's in partnership with a Global form 9 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: and we are in the Latti New York Palace in 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: Midtown Manhattan. And who knows more about real estate in 11 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: New York and really around the world. I don't know 12 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: who except Larry Silverstein. He is the chairman of Silverstein 13 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: Properties and he joins us now. So seeing thanks very 14 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: much for being with us. You know, I was looking 15 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: at the background. I'm wondering if you know, when you 16 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,559 Speaker 1: first started out in real estate from Brooklyn with your father, 17 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: did you never imagine that you'd be building four seasons 18 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: properties and the World Trade Center and all these buildings 19 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: around the world. Did you ever imagine that this is 20 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: what real estate would become? Never in a million years, 21 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: it was beyond beyond, beyond visualization. What brought you into 22 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,199 Speaker 1: the industry, what made what attracted you to it? Well, 23 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: I saw a I saw something that that seemed exciting, 24 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: and at the early stages I functioned as a real 25 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: estate broker. But it became obvious to me that the 26 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: money wasn't in brokerage at that time, it was much 27 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: more in ownership. And so with time I said, be 28 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: decided somehow we had again moved moved towards owning real 29 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: estate and ultimately developing real estate. And that's where we 30 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: are today, Mr Self Furstein. I want to talk about 31 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: the World Trade Center site. I know that you had 32 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: a lease in the World Trade Towers ninety year lease 33 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: right ahead of September eleventh, and then after that you've 34 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: devoted yourself to really rebuilding the site. Um, and the 35 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: tower that now has become really headquarters for media, for 36 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: modern media in some ways. Um, where is that? How 37 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: how well occupied is that? And um? What do you 38 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: envision for that whole region going forward? Well, first of all, 39 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: we've least about six six plus million feet of space 40 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: in the buildings down there, and there's more to go. Um. 41 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: And certainly media is a very significant occupant of space 42 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: in that part of the world. Media technology the tammy, 43 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: the tammy areas um and so it's a finance is 44 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,119 Speaker 1: still there, but is not the dominant factor in Lower 45 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: Manhattan today as it was not very long ago. I 46 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 1: don't think of media though, is having the same degree 47 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 1: of money as finance. Uh. We see media companies going 48 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: at a business left and right, So I have to wonder, uh, 49 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: you know, what the sustainability of this trend is, and uh, 50 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: what your optimism is that there could be more businesses 51 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: that come either to New York, saying Amazon coming to 52 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: the tower, which I'm sure you would be excited about, 53 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: or others. Given the high cost and uh, some of 54 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: the challenges to the industry. You know, the high cost 55 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: is certainly there. But one of the things that you 56 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: can do when you're building new buildings is building too 57 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: those buildings the latest in technology and provide for tremendous 58 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: dentification of real estate, so you could put more bodies, 59 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: more people into the same square footage that then existed 60 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: years ago. And so the the economics of new construction, 61 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: while it may sound more expensive, is actually becoming much 62 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: more efficient and less expensive for square foot of occupied space. 63 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: What's the biggest mistake that people who want to get 64 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: into real estate make. I think they consistently underestimate the 65 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: amount of capital required to do more money than you 66 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: think invariable. That like a story for life though, well 67 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: certainly children, right indeed, But you know, one of the 68 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: thing I wanted to mention is the negotiating prowers because 69 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 1: you're you were not the you were not the selected 70 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: as the person to take on World Trade Center, Right, 71 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: that was correct? How did that happen? Well, the winning 72 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: bidder UH was a public company and they ran into 73 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: all kinds of problems when it came to negotiating at 74 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: lease with the Port authority. Port authority asked to do 75 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: certain things, which is a public company that had difficulty doing. UH, 76 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: as a private entrepreneur, had no difficulty with at all, 77 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: and so it just became a question of time until 78 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: they realized it was not going to work. They dropped out, 79 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: and then we came along and closed it. So right 80 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: now we're broadcasting from midtown, but I know they you 81 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: yourself are moving from midtown UH to downtown, and that 82 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: makes me wonder, especially as I pass empty storefronts, do 83 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: you think that the shot that that this sort of 84 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 1: tide has shifted from midtown and that downtown will see 85 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: an even bigger resurgence. You know, we're we're in an 86 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: era where um e commerce is playing an increasingly important role, 87 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: and so people are buying more today online than they 88 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: have had before. UM. I think it's I think what 89 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: you're gonna see is a is a diminution in the 90 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: number of branch stores UM than we've had in the past. UM. 91 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: And so retail will adjust um to this reality just 92 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: as they've always adjusted in the past. They're going through 93 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: some more difficult times now they'll figure it out. Well. 94 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: But what does that mean for all the commercial real estate? 95 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: What does that mean for all the storefronts that have 96 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: been empty? I think with time rents and some of 97 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: those shops will come down. Some of those locations will 98 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: come down. I think that the locations might find themselves 99 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: being used differently. We see food today uh far far 100 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 1: greater dependability on a need for food, and so you 101 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: see you see restaurants popping up all over the place. 102 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: And the truth of matter is younger people, for some reason, 103 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: they don't like to cook any more. They like to 104 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 1: eat it will give you a few reasons. And so 105 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: uh you find we find restaurants uh increasing in frequency 106 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: and presence, uh, and so many cases those shops will 107 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: will be replaced by food of one type or another, 108 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: and so fast food lots, so fast food, so forth, 109 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: different types of foods. It's a it's a fascination. You'll 110 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: have that uptown as well as downtown. They'll certainly seeing 111 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: it downtown. There's no question of that. Based on what 112 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: you know or have heard about the President's efforts for 113 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: a tax reform, what can you tell us about your 114 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: views on tax reform and is it necessary? And what 115 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 1: would it do if indeed we do get some kind 116 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: of tax reform? Well, Uh, it's it's totally premature uh 117 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: to be able to opine on the ramifications of this thing, 118 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: because you don't know what state, what status it's going 119 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: to have. Uh. You're needing far more definition of a 120 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: most specificity uh than you can't than we have today 121 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: to be able to give you a concrete answer to 122 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: that question. So you don't you don't even pay attention 123 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: to the noise. It's there's a lot of noise at 124 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: this point. Uh. It will become more more less symbolic 125 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: and more meaningful as the days go forward real quickly. 126 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: I'm wondering, from a foreign investment standpoint, how concerned are 127 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: you about curbs on China money leaving the country and 128 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: what that would do to us real estate. Well, there's 129 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: certainly a diminution on the amount of money that can 130 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,679 Speaker 1: come out of China into America. But at the same time, 131 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: there's such vast amounts of wealth has been created around 132 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: the world, So much of that wealth is coming to 133 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: America as a safe haven. And so the first place 134 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: finds itself is usually New York and then it starts 135 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: fanning out to a Jamaica urban centers around the country. 136 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: So I think we're gonna do just find here. Larry Silverstein, 137 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,239 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Larry Silverstein's chairman 138 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: of Silverstein Properties, incorporated in New York City, and he 139 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: is a lion of the real estate industry, certainly in 140 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: New York as well as around the world. I want 141 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: to turn our attention to uh real estate, in particular 142 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 1: the security around that real estate in a place like 143 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: New York City. And here to join us is Governor 144 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: David Patterson, the former governor of New York. So I'd 145 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: love to to get your sense on the cost of 146 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:55,719 Speaker 1: some of these anti terrorism measures that are being increasingly 147 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: taken in New York City and from your perspective, whether 148 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: they have been uh ashiant to adequately protect us. Well, 149 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: we were just talking about that in a session and 150 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 1: my colleague Jeff Murdler, who was one of my appointees 151 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: to the Port Authority, talked about the fact that the 152 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: new one World Trade Center, the first seven floors don't 153 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: have any people on it. They're concentric layers of concrete, 154 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: and that um the reinforcements dwarf what existed on Towers 155 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: one and two at the World Trade Center uh years ago. 156 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: These are massive amounts of money and extra billion dollars 157 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: was spent just on security alone at the World Trade 158 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: Center and is now being replicated uh at you know 159 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: other edifices that are being developed around the city. Can 160 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: I just play Devil's Advocate for for just a moment, 161 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: because all of this security, while at the macro level, 162 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 1: we understand that it may be necessary, but it is 163 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: in a sense non productive spending. In other words, it's 164 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: concrete as you just describe, it's many layers of security 165 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: at the same time that we have municipalities going bust. 166 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: So is there a contrast between what we are securing, 167 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: which seems to be deteriorating in some cases, and the 168 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: amount of money that is being spent on security services. Uh, 169 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: that is a brilliant question. It's a sacrifice in many 170 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: respects what we're finding. Let's think about it. Two years 171 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: ago in France there was an attack on a restaurant, 172 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 1: and then, uh, one month after that, in December of 173 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:46,239 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, there was an attack on a holiday party 174 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: that was actually in a in a you know, regular 175 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 1: office building, So terrorists could read a lot of havoc, 176 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: but not even going near the World trades. And they 177 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: can do it in the subway system. There's no way 178 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: we could secure seven miles of track in the New 179 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 1: York City subway system. So your point is very well taken. 180 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: But I guess psychologically, if there was another attack on 181 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: one of the major buildings, the Empire State Building or 182 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden, on one of these places, the person 183 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: everybody would say is why didn't someone do something about it? 184 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: Governor Patterson, I wonder if you could enlighten us about 185 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: whether it's underappreciated. How many potential threats have been thwarted 186 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: to New York City and how many threats you're aware 187 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: of that were imminent that didn't happen. I'm aware of 188 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: about of UH for every one UH situation had happened. Friends, 189 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: when I was governor, there was a bombing um on Street. UH. 190 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: It didn't it wasn't effective. But what had occurred. But 191 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: I told the group this morning that I was told 192 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: there would be an attack on the New York subway 193 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: system during the Thanksgiving holidays in two thousand and eight. 194 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: And you know what. My staff came in my office 195 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: today before Thanksgiving and they were all looking down, they 196 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: were glum. I thought, oh my god, we've got another 197 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: September eleven situation. And it turned out they wanted to 198 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: tell me about the attack in Mumbai when they blew 199 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: up the hotel and in India, and um, it was 200 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: a horrible situation, terrible tragedy. We sent supplies from New 201 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: York State. I felt guilty of others, but I was 202 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 1: relieved that New York had been spared. They are all 203 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: types of threats that we never know about. We have 204 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: to thank our New York City Police Department, the state 205 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: police in our national government for their successes. Can you 206 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: just speak a little bit about the threat the fiscal 207 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: threat to states and municipalities. We've got a potential bankruptcy 208 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 1: right now at Hartford, Connecticut. Yeah, it's overwhelming. UM. There 209 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: was the little uh city Pritchard, Alabama. There was the 210 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: municipality in near Orange County in California. UM, we are going, uh, 211 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: We're uh. Governments are spending more and then they had 212 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: to because of all types of myriad problems that exist 213 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: now that then existed before. There's no doubt about that. 214 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: And we're going hopelessly back into debt and I hope 215 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: that's not another prelude uh to a government crisis like 216 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: we sew in two thousand and eight. Do you think 217 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: that's possible? I mean, from leaving out finance, I think 218 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: just from a government perspective, the amount of debt that's 219 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: being run up by cities and states is incredible. Right 220 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: here in in in New York. At one time, about 221 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: ten years ago, the m T A was the fifth 222 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: largest debt or in the country. California was number one, 223 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 1: New York State, New York City with two and three, 224 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: Massachusetts number four and then the m t A. It's 225 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: as if they are a state, and so the point 226 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: is that, um um, we don't manage money right the 227 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: way we should. Well, I want to thank you for 228 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: your service to the state and to the country. Former 229 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: Governor of New York David Patterson joining us here at 230 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: the Global leaders in Real Estate Summit for Eisener Emper 231 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: and partnership with I Global Form. You're listening to Bloomberg. 232 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: We are broadcasting live from the Eisener Emper Global leaders 233 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: in Real Estate Summit. It's in partnership with I A 234 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: Global Forum, and we're broadcasting from the New York Palace 235 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: Hotel in Midtown Manhattan. Joining us now is really our 236 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: host for the whole morning. I want to appreciate it. 237 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Charlie Weinstein. He is the chief 238 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: executive of Eisener Emperor. Thank you for having us, Thank 239 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: you for having thank you for covering us this morning. 240 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: And good morning Lace and him. Great to be great 241 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: to be be here. You know. One of the time 242 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: I wonder if we could just jump right in. I 243 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: want to understand a little bit more about the Center 244 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: for Family Business Excellence, because I think that many people 245 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: who either own companies or are equity holders in either 246 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: private companies or in real estate deals. This is something 247 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: that you're trying to build for them. Center for Family 248 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: Business Excellence is um a new initiative that we've started 249 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: at the firm. Lisa Stewart is the executive and our 250 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: firm who's responsible for family uh, family businesses, and family business. 251 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: Center for Family Business Excellence really has its focus on 252 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: the challenges that family owned businesses and privately held companies 253 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: have on succession, planning and transition, and Lisa has been 254 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 1: doing this for twenty years. We're very excited to be 255 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: able to bring this initiative to our clients, and especially 256 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: in the real estate industry where family owned real estate 257 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: provides a challenge for leadership trains issue. You know, as 258 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: we were talking before this segment, one thing that struck 259 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: me was that the main topic of the day is 260 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: somewhat different than I thought it would be. I thought 261 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: it would be about taxes, frankly because of the tax 262 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 1: plan that was released by President Trump, but it sounds 263 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: like that's not the that's not the case. In fact, 264 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: it's actually the technological revolution that's kind of underpinning the 265 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: real estate market right now? Can you give us a 266 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: sense of what that is? Absolutely? And so it's very 267 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: interesting because we are a leading accounting and advisory firm, 268 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: but even eisener Amper has morphed into a technology focused 269 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: term and that's impacting real estate in so many ways. 270 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: And so if you think one way in particular would 271 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: be blockchain. And so what's coming in blockchain is going 272 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: to have a tremendous impact on title and ownership, mortgage recording, um, 273 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,359 Speaker 1: all of these things that perhaps were impacted in the 274 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: meltdown in two thousand and eight, those are going to 275 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: be impacted in a big way by blockchains. So when 276 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: you say impacted, does this mean that there's going to 277 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: be more profits or sort of a fewer costs attached 278 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: to purchasing a home with a mortgage or does that 279 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: mean that it's just going other places? I mean, what's 280 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: the significance of this for buyers of real estate? To me, 281 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: the significance is transparency. And when you have transparency, you 282 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 1: have more effective and efficient markets, and we will see 283 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: the lowering of risk and we will see more investment 284 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: dollars come into this sector as risk gets lowered. All right, now, 285 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: I know you wanted to move away from taxes, but 286 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm just gonna have to focus you there 287 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: because I know, for example, that you are one of 288 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 1: the attendees at the White House at a Business Council 289 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: meeting with President Donald Trump, and of course taxes is 290 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: in the headlines right now. What if you could speak 291 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: about this idea of succession planning and the estate tax 292 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: for businesses and then maybe just segue if you can 293 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: into the whole then thirty one exchange uh business, because 294 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 1: that may be on the chopping block at least that's 295 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: according to some people in Washington. Well, so a state 296 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 1: tax if and there are very few details out yet 297 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: in terms of tax reform and what impact it's going 298 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: to have, Uh, the state tax will go away, and 299 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: so that will change, um if if the proposals are 300 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 1: filled in the way that that they're spoken about now, 301 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: a state tax will go away. That will have a 302 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: significant significant impact on succession planning for families especially, And 303 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 1: so we're looking forward to more details coming out and 304 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: hopefully we will see some changes in the estate tax. 305 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: Um In terms of specifics, ten thirty one exchanges limitations 306 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: on business interest deductions, all of these things are going 307 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: to have a major impact. It's a little bit uncertain 308 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 1: at this point if they're actually going to go through. 309 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: So let's here, what's your expectation. You look skeptical. Um, 310 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: I believe that will have tax reform, but uh, interest 311 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: groups are lobbying already. I think the plan is to 312 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: keep details light until the proposal is ready to be 313 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: voted on interest groups so hard at work. Well, I'm 314 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: wondering from the mortgage interest deduction standpoint, whether you think 315 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 1: that could potentially be on the chopping block. Certainly sounds 316 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: as though they're going to keep it for individuals, but 317 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: business interest deductions sound like they're going to be limited. 318 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 1: And if that's the case, that will have an impact 319 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: on corporate real estate and real estate investment. In other words, 320 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 1: commercial property values could deteriorate pretty rapidly. Absolutely. Is there 321 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: a misnomer about the industry that people do deals for 322 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: tax reasons? I mean, is taxes a secondary issue or 323 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: the primary? I'd like to think tax planning is your friend, 324 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: and so it's a component of every aspect of deal 325 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: making in real estate, and savvy real estate investors take 326 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,199 Speaker 1: advantage of the opportunities in the tax code as it 327 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: stands today. UM, it'll be interesting to see with tax reform, 328 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: if we have tax reform, what those opportunities will be 329 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: going forward. That's our business. Charlie Weinstein, thank you so 330 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: much for joining us and for having us here today. 331 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: Charlie Weinstein's chief executive officer of Eisner Amper, which is 332 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:40,479 Speaker 1: based in New York and facing a pretty rapidly changing 333 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: landscape for at least the underbelly of the real estate industry. 334 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: As so many industries are facing disruption from technological advances. 335 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: The bond market is experiencing a bit of a sell off, 336 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: at least the US government bond market. You are seeing, uh, 337 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: some of the risk your markets rally a little bit. 338 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Mark Branch, chief strategist at 339 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: Hilltop Securities in Bloomberg Profit for our Bloomberg view site 340 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: up Mark, thank you so much for joining us, and 341 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: I want to start with should we care about this 342 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: selloff in the bond market or will this just be 343 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 1: a buying opportunity like all of the other small blips 344 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: upward in bond yields. I think it's a buying opportunity. Lisa. 345 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: The technically the lines in the sand or to sixteen 346 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: and two thirty two were right at the high level 347 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: of the support resistance line at two point three to 348 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: eight as we speak. And I think the our yields 349 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: of the United States, even though we're the largest economy, 350 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: the strongest economy, or so much higher than European yields, 351 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: as long as the central banks keep printing money, which 352 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: they are way more than the fetters talking about cutting back, 353 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: I think you'll stay low. Well, Mark ran if you 354 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: if you'd stay low, what happens in December if the 355 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve raises interest rates, I think the yield curve 356 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: just flattens further. We've seen a huge flattening over the 357 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: last year. As you know, phim better than anybody, and 358 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 1: and Lisa, you both know that how many people have 359 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: come into the media we're going to have three to 360 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: yield on the tenure and it just has not taken place, 361 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: and I don't expect it to anytime soon. Well, you know, 362 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: I think that one change in the equation could be 363 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 1: a tax plan, and President Trump did unveil his proposal yesterday, 364 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: at least the outline um and there's some speculation that 365 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: the sell off that we're seeing is an expectation that 366 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: the federal deficit will deepen. Therefore, even if we don't 367 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 1: see the growth, we will see uh, some inflationary pressures, 368 00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: or at least we'll see that the US is becoming 369 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 1: less credit worthy. How much do you buy into that argument? Um, 370 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: there's no question so that the cause of the markets 371 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: to sell off the last few days has been the 372 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: president's tax plan. I do not think the country's going 373 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: to become less credit worthy. It just depends on how 374 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: much growth you think we're going to see from lower 375 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: taxes to upset this and uh, I think the growth 376 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: will there will be growth, and you know what the 377 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: number is is very difficult to tell, but I think 378 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: that's the offset for the tax cuts. And also, of 379 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: course people will have more money to spend, which should 380 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,479 Speaker 1: be a positive for the economy. Mark, can you tell 381 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,400 Speaker 1: us a little bit about demand from institutional clients right now? 382 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: What are they looking for? Yeah, the institution, the big 383 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: institutional clients and Ideal with quite a number of them 384 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 1: directly are outside of the box, if you will, out 385 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,120 Speaker 1: of the box. But what they're looking for, they're they're 386 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: not getting enough yield and traditional public investments, and most 387 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: of them were doing privates in the debt market, or 388 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,719 Speaker 1: private equity or real estate. They're doing all kinds of 389 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: things to try to lock in yield because they cannot 390 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: get it in the public debt markets. Well, you talk 391 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: about locking in yield, does that lock in their money 392 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 1: because of limited liquidity in many of these investments. Well, 393 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: a lot of these big institutions, especially the life insurance companies, 394 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: don't need much liquidity. There. You have a longer time 395 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,399 Speaker 1: horizon and the yield that they're getting the cash flow 396 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: is much more important to them than uh liquidity. So Mark, 397 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 1: you are saying that, Um, there sort of seems to 398 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: be this tense balance here between a commentative monetary policy 399 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: globally as well as your expectation that the tax proposal 400 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: would potentially increase growth in thus inflation and thus potentially 401 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: longer term yield being higher. I'm just wondering what's the 402 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: range here, what's the lowest that the tenure treasury could 403 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 1: go in your opinion in this environment, and what's the 404 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:11,439 Speaker 1: highest that the yield could go. Well, you know, it 405 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: depends on external factors such as North Korea blowing some 406 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 1: jetting in America out of the sky. You'd see it 407 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: two yielding about three minutes uh. Short of something going 408 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: very wrong, you're probably looking at a two oh six 409 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: on the low side and two fifty two or so 410 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: to fifty three on the high side. I do not 411 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 1: think that there's any way given the amount of money 412 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: that the central banks are printing. The issue here, Lee says, 413 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: you have to follow the money. The fat is talking 414 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 1: about a very minor cutback uh in their balance sheet, 415 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 1: while at the same time, the eleven central banks of 416 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: the world, according to Bloomberg Dad or now about twenty 417 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,719 Speaker 1: one point four trillion in assets and it's growing at 418 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: about three million a month. So as long as the 419 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: central banks globally or adding keep adding money to the system, 420 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 1: you're not going to see any big reversal and yields. 421 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: In my opinion, just quickly mark Grant once again. December 422 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,640 Speaker 1: rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Yes, I don't think so. 423 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 1: I think that they're gonna look at the economy and 424 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: stand pad though I'm certainly in the minority opinion. We'll 425 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: have to see what happens. Thank you very much more, 426 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: Our chief a strategist from Hilltop Securities He's based in 427 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: for La Florida. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P 428 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 429 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 430 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: I'm Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm 431 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramowits one before the podcast. You 432 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: can always catch up worldwide on Bloomberg radioh