WEBVTT - Grill Makers Are the Hottest Things in IPOs

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg glovel News. Let's get to a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more of those COVID headlines. We talked about COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen cases in the UK, rising the most in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>as virus restrictions ended in England, New York City no

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<v Speaker 1>plans for new indoor mask mandates. We know what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on in l A, Southeast Asia, continuing to reel from

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<v Speaker 1>a fresh wave of the virus. Well. Earlier today on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg TV and Radio, Dr Anthony Fauci caught up with

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<v Speaker 1>our own David Weston to talk about the rising cases

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<v Speaker 1>and as pleaded people check it out, but among the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated people, that's a significant risk. And that's the reason

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<v Speaker 1>why we are practically pleading with people to please, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're not vaccinated yet, seriously consider getting vaccinated because this

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<v Speaker 1>is a nasty virus, particularly if you're unvaccinated. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, Dr Anthony Fauci there earlier, M Blomberg RADI

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<v Speaker 1>hum Blomberg TV. Let's see what our next guest has

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<v Speaker 1>to say about all of this. Dr Justin Zogi is

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<v Speaker 1>with us. He's chief medical officer at LA based here.

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<v Speaker 1>They provide telehealth services and doctor house calls to over

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<v Speaker 1>seventy five million Americans. He's on the phone in l A.

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<v Speaker 1>Dor Zoggy, Good to have you here. How are you

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<v Speaker 1>and tell me what you're seeing when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>COVID cases, specifically out there on the West Coast. Hi, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for having me on your show. Sure, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know you're right. I'm based in Los Angeles, and

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<v Speaker 1>in Los Angeles there's been a significant rise in COVID

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<v Speaker 1>cases over in the past two weeks and it is

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<v Speaker 1>quite concerning it. As a result, as you know, Los

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<v Speaker 1>Angeles has reinstated the mask mandate um, and you know

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<v Speaker 1>there are breakthrough cases happening. Obviously, vaccination is the most

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<v Speaker 1>important thing for people to do UM and even among

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<v Speaker 1>those who are vaccinated, there are some breakthrough cases. So

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing some patients who have been vaccinated and

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<v Speaker 1>are getting the vaccine. That being said, those who are

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated have a much lower likelihood of ending up in

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital or of dying, and so we do strongly

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<v Speaker 1>urge all of our patients to get vaccinated. Of those

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<v Speaker 1>people who are not vaccinated and get this COVID nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>as a result of the delta variant, how bad is it?

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<v Speaker 1>It can be quite severe. It's in fact it's the

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<v Speaker 1>most contagious and we think the most severe strain of

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID nineteen virus um. It's thought that this is

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<v Speaker 1>actually two fiftent more contagious than the original strain, right,

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<v Speaker 1>which explains why it's spreading like wildfire and why people

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<v Speaker 1>who have even been vaccinated are getting it. How the

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<v Speaker 1>distinction is that if you have been vaccinated and you

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<v Speaker 1>get it, uh, there's a you'll be much less likely

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<v Speaker 1>to have severe consequences, meaning much lower likelihood of dying

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<v Speaker 1>from the vaccine, much lower likelihood of ending up in

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital, and also less severe symptoms. Just generally you

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<v Speaker 1>may have some you know, cold cold like symptoms, cough, uh, fever,

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<v Speaker 1>and in some pieces it can be more severe, but

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<v Speaker 1>generally you're vaccinated. That's the best line of defense we

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<v Speaker 1>have the country overall, and I feel like the world

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<v Speaker 1>overall continues to in a large way. Of course, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not a straight path forward. Continue to reopen, but it's tricky.

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<v Speaker 1>Do the lifting of restruction restrictions excuse me, and the

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<v Speaker 1>continued reopening make you nervous? You know, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a Balasi act, right. Keeping things closed has significant

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<v Speaker 1>consequences um on everyone. Right, We've we've heard of the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of the lockdown on school children, for example, and

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<v Speaker 1>the impact that has on their development, with the CDC

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<v Speaker 1>coming out and saying that we need to reopen schools

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<v Speaker 1>because of the impact of the lockdown on children. Similarly,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we were just hearing on the headlines about

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<v Speaker 1>the impact on the stock market and travel, um and

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<v Speaker 1>people's mental health. You know, I'm seeing a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>patients with depression anxiety from the lockdown, and so there

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<v Speaker 1>is a significant cost associated with the lockdown and with

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<v Speaker 1>these restrictions um at the same time, for a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>it has been our best defense against COVID nineteen. The

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<v Speaker 1>silver lining here is that with vaccination, you know, that

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<v Speaker 1>will free us up to open up even more right

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<v Speaker 1>and will allow us to avoid these these restrictions and

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<v Speaker 1>will help us to return to more normalcy. It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's really a balancing act. But if I can give

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<v Speaker 1>one one, uh, you know, one message to to our

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<v Speaker 1>list centers here is if you have not yet been

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated to please do do consider getting vaccinated, because this

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<v Speaker 1>is this is our way of freeing ourselves from the

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<v Speaker 1>shackle of COVID nineteen and going back to more normal.

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<v Speaker 1>Thoughts on people wearing masks even if they're vaccinated, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that uh you know, I'm as difficult as

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<v Speaker 1>it is in Los Angeles with wearing indoor masks. I

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<v Speaker 1>do think it's the right call, right because we have

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<v Speaker 1>been seeing significant rise in cases, and you know, where

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<v Speaker 1>as a complete shutdown has significant impacts as really challenging

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<v Speaker 1>to do, simply telling people to wear a mask when

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<v Speaker 1>they're indoors is less restricting than you know, not leaving

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<v Speaker 1>the home at all. We're limiting contact completely. And I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that you know, given given that we were

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<v Speaker 1>seeing breakthrough cases and people who are vaccinated, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it makes sense to have people wear face masks indoors,

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<v Speaker 1>right And I think this this will just help protect

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<v Speaker 1>both the vaccinated and unvaccinated people in our in our communities.

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<v Speaker 1>Um and just the way to mitigate the glowth of

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<v Speaker 1>the virus until more people are vaccinated. Great to check

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<v Speaker 1>in with you. Thank you so much, Dr Justin Zoggi.

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<v Speaker 1>He's chief medical officer at Heel on the Phone in

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<v Speaker 1>l A. Check out their website, their business where they

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<v Speaker 1>are doing telehealth and doctor house calls, growing six since

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<v Speaker 1>May due to the COVID nineteen demand. Of course, he

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<v Speaker 1>is chief medical officer at Hell. As we mentioned, they

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<v Speaker 1>are l A based. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let's get to it an online story at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com. On at Bloomberg business Week dot com,

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<v Speaker 1>I should say, and who knew, from the iconic Weber

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<v Speaker 1>to the BBQ guys, groolmakers are the hottest thing when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to post pandemic I p S. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>into what's going on. Joining us is Bloomberg News Deals

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Crystal Ce and Bloomberg Business weekender Joel Webber, both

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<v Speaker 1>in our Interactive Brokers studio. Are you grilling a lot?

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<v Speaker 1>You know you would think that, um, I would grill

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<v Speaker 1>every day since my last name is Webber and it's

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<v Speaker 1>spelled the same way. So let's just get that out

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<v Speaker 1>of the out of the way. To start with, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not related. If I were related, you know, I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be sitting here right now. I would be you know,

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<v Speaker 1>getting ready for an I p O at a grill.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, the story is really interesting, I think

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<v Speaker 1>because it speaks to I mean, do you remember, like

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<v Speaker 1>not that long ago girl where we were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>like the dearth of companies that were in the public

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<v Speaker 1>markets are going public, going public? And then all of

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<v Speaker 1>a sudden, you know, we just had a huge change

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<v Speaker 1>to that, and companies like Webber and and now Trigger,

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<v Speaker 1>who you would think would have remained private for as

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<v Speaker 1>long as they wanted, are testing the public markets. Yeah, exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>So Crystal, come on in on this and your story

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<v Speaker 1>here in terms of what we're seeing, because it is

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<v Speaker 1>a really hot part of no pun intended pun intended hot,

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<v Speaker 1>part of the I p O market. Yeah, actually there

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<v Speaker 1>are two I p O s like you mentioned Trigger

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<v Speaker 1>and Whoever. There's also a s Bag deal and after

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<v Speaker 1>we publish a story, we actually found it as a

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<v Speaker 1>fourth company in the girl space going publics called Solo Stove. So, like,

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<v Speaker 1>I think people are just like wondering, like why there's

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<v Speaker 1>so many girl companies. And the biggest question though, is

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<v Speaker 1>as everybody start going out again, like all these companies

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<v Speaker 1>going to be as hot as they were during the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the question that we really try to answer him.

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<v Speaker 1>And so first of all, why why do we think that, um,

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<v Speaker 1>these companies who have been private and clearly you know,

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<v Speaker 1>had a good run in the private market for so long,

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<v Speaker 1>why do we think they're going in public all of

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<v Speaker 1>a sudden at the same time. Yeah, So the interesting

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<v Speaker 1>thing about this is that they're not using the proceas

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<v Speaker 1>to growth the company. Like you said, they've been around

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<v Speaker 1>for the longest time. They actually very established, you have,

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<v Speaker 1>they're very profitable. A lot of the existing investors actually

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<v Speaker 1>using this as a good opportunity to cash out. So

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<v Speaker 1>as equity markets at all time high. What's better way

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<v Speaker 1>to do it other than do an I P O

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<v Speaker 1>and do I here top peak. It sounds right, it's

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<v Speaker 1>hop sure that I mean, I guess the question is

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<v Speaker 1>on the other side of the pandemic. We are a

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<v Speaker 1>grilling family. My husband's at there in December January grilling

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<v Speaker 1>often on our porch. But I mean, does the grill

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<v Speaker 1>craze continue your endemic? We asked that question the banker

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<v Speaker 1>I spoke to from City Group. He was saying that

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<v Speaker 1>he grows actually when he was working from home. So

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<v Speaker 1>this is the potential hybrid working model. You know, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're home and you you have a lunch break, you

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<v Speaker 1>can just go out for a fifteen minute break girl,

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<v Speaker 1>stay a girl like a burger, and come back in.

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<v Speaker 1>So that potential longevityo of this hybrid working model could

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<v Speaker 1>benefit them. But also he's saying that people are picking

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<v Speaker 1>it up as a hobby. It's not just that a

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<v Speaker 1>one time purchase. You're also buying the accessories you also like,

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<v Speaker 1>topping up on your existing grill. So even though that

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<v Speaker 1>one time big ticket item was bought this year, their

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<v Speaker 1>potential purchases coming up. My my joke on this story

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<v Speaker 1>when we were first kind of kicking it around, was

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<v Speaker 1>like to me, you know whoever, especially it's like this

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<v Speaker 1>is a hundred year old piece of technology that really

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<v Speaker 1>has not changed at all. It's like you put fire

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<v Speaker 1>in a metal thing and and get what you get.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's interesting though is as I sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>started reading around the story, there is actually some tech

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<v Speaker 1>going on that's pretty great to um and what are what?

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<v Speaker 1>Why are grilling heads so excited about where the two

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<v Speaker 1>companies have gone. It's become like a i LT device

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<v Speaker 1>Almost a lot of these grills, especially the higher end

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<v Speaker 1>model that could cause like thousands of dollars. They are

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<v Speaker 1>tech enabled that you can connect it to your WiFi.

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<v Speaker 1>There's an app and you can control the temperature so

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<v Speaker 1>you don't really have to like stand around and wait

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<v Speaker 1>for your meat to smoke for fourteen now is you

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<v Speaker 1>can just go to bed and next the next morning

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<v Speaker 1>it's there. So that really just you know, transform the

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<v Speaker 1>company into a bit of a tech company, and obviously

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<v Speaker 1>the tech valuation is very favorable. Well that, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>the other thing is right there are it's there's the

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<v Speaker 1>grills were a grill in a smoker house. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I've woken up in the morning or in the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of the night and you know there's brisket that's been

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<v Speaker 1>cooking for hours. I mean, that's another part of this story, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the other part of the stories that I

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<v Speaker 1>need an updated invite to come over to your house

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<v Speaker 1>for a while. It's really good. Yeah, but that's true,

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<v Speaker 1>like people often have more than one of these devices

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<v Speaker 1>like you have. You have different needs and people getting

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<v Speaker 1>more and more into these cooking hobbies, and you have

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<v Speaker 1>all these cooking shows that are building big bugs, and

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<v Speaker 1>they often advertise on these YouTube cooking shows or like

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<v Speaker 1>magazines that are food related. So yeah, it's it's a

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<v Speaker 1>big business. So I still can't believe I didn't think Webber.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really upset. I'm shocked. The other thing that it

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<v Speaker 1>bears mentioning here is like they're sure there's the company

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<v Speaker 1>aspect of that, but the Mannings actually figure into this one.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk to us about um what Elien and Peyton have

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<v Speaker 1>pulled off. Yeah, they are actually existing back of baby

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<v Speaker 1>que Guys, which is a retailer for barbecue griels, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're going public there s back with reported UM. I mean,

0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.679
<v Speaker 1>spac it's another hot topic of the year and the

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:08.120
<v Speaker 1>past two years, and a lot of the spag deos

0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:12.320
<v Speaker 1>tend to be unprofitable companies or people companies that are

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 1>looking into very very far ahead in the future, like

0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:18.080
<v Speaker 1>the space traveling electric vehicles, So it's not often then

0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:21.160
<v Speaker 1>you get actually a profitable company that has an established

0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.959
<v Speaker 1>track record. So this could really get people excited. It's

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.079
<v Speaker 1>just not just because of the growing element, but that

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:28.520
<v Speaker 1>it seems like a legitimate company. So can I throw

0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.120
<v Speaker 1>in pools into this? Why not? Because that's part of it.

0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:35.079
<v Speaker 1>I do not have a city backyard. It's really small, um,

0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.079
<v Speaker 1>so pools are part of it, right that they have

0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 1>also taken off, It's part of this story. It's the

0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.520
<v Speaker 1>entire home improvement trend that we saw the past year.

0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:46.079
<v Speaker 1>At least three pool companies have gone public in the

0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.960
<v Speaker 1>past year. All have seen shares rose more than faulty

0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 1>percent during this period. So everything that's that involves your

0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:58.720
<v Speaker 1>immediate surrounding your home is getting an upgrade and all

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>of these companies that benefit. And it makes me just think, like,

0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 1>especially off of today's headlines and everybody getting cold feed,

0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 1>it's like, you know, this is exactly what that trades about.

0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:13.360
<v Speaker 1>Which is like, how can you find, uh, some companies

0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 1>that are are benefiting from you know, longevity of people

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 1>staying at home? Right right? This like peak growth idea

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.079
<v Speaker 1>or peak pan you know, pandemic place. Having said that,

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 1>robin Hood is also something just to do a quick

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 1>before you leave robin Hood going public, how do we

0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:28.839
<v Speaker 1>read that? Is that a sign of a peak in

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.320
<v Speaker 1>the market or something else? They are also a pandemic beneficiary.

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.319
<v Speaker 1>They actually acquired a lot of volume, a lot of

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:37.520
<v Speaker 1>users during this you know work from home period where

0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 1>people had not much to do except for setting home

0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 1>in trading stocks. And what we know is that they

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 1>are going to list on July twenty nine and attend

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 1>a work show. Are done virtually, and they will have

0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 1>a huge component in the I p O allocated to

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.000
<v Speaker 1>retail investors, which are their own users. It will be

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>allocated through their platform, which is something that has only

0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 1>been done like one or twice. So it will be

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 1>interesting how it turns out. All right, ChIL, given a

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.360
<v Speaker 1>choice between a grill smoker, a pool and a piece

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:09.200
<v Speaker 1>of robin Hood, what would you take les about? I'll

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.439
<v Speaker 1>take I mean being a webber, even though I'm not

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>related to the Weber. There is nothing I can you know,

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 1>just embrace the namesake, I think, and go with the

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>grill or it for the weekend show. I'll have to

0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 1>work it in untill Webber Editor Bloomberg Business Week. Here

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.760
<v Speaker 1>in our interactor Broker's studio along with Crystal See Deals

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's get to it. Because the

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.640
<v Speaker 1>U s UK and their allies formally attributed the Microsoft

0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 1>Exchange hack to actors affiliated with the Chinese government and

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 1>accused the Chinese government of a broad array of malicious

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 1>cyber activities, escalating last week's tensions between the White House

0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>and China. That's one of our big macro stories today

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 1>that we're gonna get into. Plus how China's crackdown on

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 1>ride hailing giant de d raises a lot of questions

0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.680
<v Speaker 1>about the future of an investment in Chinese startups. It's

0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.200
<v Speaker 1>two big themes that we've been talking about ongoing with

0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 1>our own Andy Brown. He is Bloomberg New Economy editorial director,

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.000
<v Speaker 1>and he joins US on this Monday on the phone

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.400
<v Speaker 1>in New York City. Um, Andy, let me just start

0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>with um, first of all, the headline here about the US,

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 1>the UK and their allies, you know, formally pointing the

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:23.600
<v Speaker 1>finger at the Chinese government for that Microsoft Exchange hack. Um.

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, how do you assess the damage of

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.400
<v Speaker 1>something like that or how do the two sides navigate

0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:33.160
<v Speaker 1>through something like that. Yeah, well, this, this is this

0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:37.840
<v Speaker 1>really is huge. Um, this has been going on for years.

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.160
<v Speaker 1>I think that's you know, you have to recognize that

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 1>this this, uh, these accusations of Chinese cyber attacks have

0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 1>been poisoning US China relations for more than a decade UM.

0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>And this is one really sort of recalls an episode

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 1>that I reported on extensively. It was about it was

0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 1>about a decade ago UM when Chinese military hack has

0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:06.720
<v Speaker 1>got into Google servers and came very close to stealing

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Google source code, and that triggered a whole chain of

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:15.920
<v Speaker 1>events which ultimately led to Google exiting China or taking

0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:19.400
<v Speaker 1>its um it's search engine out of China. This one,

0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:23.760
<v Speaker 1>I think it is significant that Microsoft is at the

0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 1>heart of it. Another iconic US tech company, but also

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>one that has invested over the years massively in China

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>in spite of not getting much revenue out of China

0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:41.040
<v Speaker 1>at all. I mean, Microsoft has been so dedicated to

0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:46.120
<v Speaker 1>China's economic and technical development. It has its largest R

0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:50.600
<v Speaker 1>and d UM unit in the world, facility in the

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 1>world outside of the United States in China. So you know,

0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:58.760
<v Speaker 1>later on top of that, what we've been seeing in

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 1>terms of the Chinese government's crackdown on big Chinese tech companies,

0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:06.960
<v Speaker 1>concerns about information we see it as you write about

0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:12.560
<v Speaker 1>again about D d UM, what does it mean longer term? Andy,

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to foreign investment in Chinese companies or

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.719
<v Speaker 1>in China large you know better than all of us,

0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 1>UH and anybody's been reporting on business news for a

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 1>long time, is that, you know, global multinational companies all

0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>they wanted to do is have some kind of presence

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.680
<v Speaker 1>in China, and we're really kind of willing to do

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 1>anything to have some kind of footprint on the ground.

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.480
<v Speaker 1>Does that change going forward because of all of this

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>that's going on. Look, I think I think you have

0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>to see this in the context of a steady deterioration

0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 1>UH in U S China relations. I mean, it just

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 1>seems like we're getting revelations almost daily. Um. You know,

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.399
<v Speaker 1>it's so just in the last couple of days, the

0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Biden administration has warned US companies against doing business in

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:09.320
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong. Janney Yellen, the Treasury secretary. US Treasury Secretary,

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:14.720
<v Speaker 1>has announced that she's not going to restart the Security

0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.920
<v Speaker 1>and Economic Dialogue, which has been the prime platform for

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:23.680
<v Speaker 1>US China negotiation on their bilateral relationship since the George W.

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:28.359
<v Speaker 1>Bush administration. Janet Yellen also, in an interview with The

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.920
<v Speaker 1>New York Times, UM has called into question whether or

0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:36.359
<v Speaker 1>not the US is um going to you know, is

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 1>going to keep to this the trade agreement that was

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:44.680
<v Speaker 1>the crowning achievement of UM, you know, the the last

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Trump administration. UM. So it's it's it really is all

0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 1>sort of falling apart. And then you know, you look

0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.960
<v Speaker 1>at you look at this episode UM with d D

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.320
<v Speaker 1>and the announcement basically by the Chinese side that they're

0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 1>they're not gonna they're not going to allow you a

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 1>Chinese companies to list in the US. And now you

0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 1>start getting capital market decoupling on top of all of

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.479
<v Speaker 1>the rest of it. So, Andy, there are worries, right

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:13.399
<v Speaker 1>and then there are the financial markets and investors who say, Yep,

0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm worried, but I still see opportunity. You actually caught

0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 1>up with one that I think is a really key

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:20.000
<v Speaker 1>voice in trying to figure out what does this mean?

0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:24.240
<v Speaker 1>What are the investment implications? Um, when it comes to

0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.439
<v Speaker 1>what's going on in China. So I think two things.

0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 1>First of all, UM, investors still largely see opportunity in

0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 1>China that they tech invests in particular, see China as being,

0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 1>you know that the fastest growing source of consumer demand

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.720
<v Speaker 1>in the world, and so they're going to be there. Um.

0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:50.000
<v Speaker 1>That's the first takeaway, regardless of everything that's going on.

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 1>But what they are seeing is a lot of disruption

0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:58.080
<v Speaker 1>in the near term. The reason that China was actually

0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 1>encouraging its tech companies to list outside of China is

0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:08.920
<v Speaker 1>because the regulators within the financial regulators within China understood

0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:12.080
<v Speaker 1>that Chinese markets simply weren't ready for that volume of

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.080
<v Speaker 1>I p o s. And what's going to happen now,

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 1>according to the investors that I've been talking to, is

0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 1>that they're going to list now in in China, which

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 1>and by the way, it takes a lot longer list

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>in China than it does in the United States, and

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:32.960
<v Speaker 1>this is potentially going to deter UH investment in startups

0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:37.720
<v Speaker 1>and damage China's entire innovation ecosystem. So there will be

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:43.840
<v Speaker 1>some implications it definitely Yeah, real real, real, short term,

0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:48.600
<v Speaker 1>real short term disruption UH in you know the the

0:20:49.560 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>people forget actually you know that that the initial wave

0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:58.960
<v Speaker 1>of Chinese tech companies were funded and nurtured by foreign investors,

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.680
<v Speaker 1>most of them US investors. And even though that balance

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:04.880
<v Speaker 1>is now shifted where most of the money is coming

0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 1>from China, foreign investors still have a critical role to

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.280
<v Speaker 1>play UH in the development of Chinese technology, and this

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>calls into question whether or not they're going to be

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:17.399
<v Speaker 1>able to free the invest Well, I highly recommend everybody

0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 1>check out Andy's latest column because it does have his

0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>interview he did with Gary Riischel, who he and his

0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 1>firm have invested in college endowment funds at a number

0:21:25.560 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 1>of Chinese uniforms. So there's this incredible back and forth

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.680
<v Speaker 1>between Andy and Gary. Andy Brown, thank you, editorial director

0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:39.399
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg New Economy brow the journal. Now but you

0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:44.520
<v Speaker 1>let me drive Oh no, no, no, no, please, I'll

0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:54.240
<v Speaker 1>do the right lest I want to drive just drives

0:21:54.320 --> 0:22:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the question. Yeah, drive to the globe. Thanks, we'll drying

0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:10.320
<v Speaker 1>us dawn radius. All right, just about ten and a

0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:13.840
<v Speaker 1>half minutes left until today's closing bell. Charlie, of course,

0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>breaking down, uh, those major equity averages. We are down

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.399
<v Speaker 1>across the board, just off our loads of the session.

0:22:20.440 --> 0:22:22.960
<v Speaker 1>But there is a question out there, you know, is

0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 1>economic growth has it peaked? So let's get to it

0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:28.960
<v Speaker 1>with our market close guest, time for the drive to

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 1>the close. You back. Puri is chief investment officer of

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.159
<v Speaker 1>America's of A Deutsche Bank Wealth back with us on

0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:37.040
<v Speaker 1>the phone from New York City. De Back, Good to

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:40.960
<v Speaker 1>have you here with us. So what do you see

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:45.560
<v Speaker 1>as the reason for equity is predominantly being lower today?

0:22:47.200 --> 0:22:51.600
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, cal Good afternoon. I think today's move is actually,

0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, part of it can be explained by the

0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>COVID variant delta creating some reasons in the world to create,

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:02.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, short term lockdowns. I think there is a

0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:07.399
<v Speaker 1>concern that this reopening is multi speed, multi regions, so

0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:12.840
<v Speaker 1>not everywhere you're seeing this reopening trade working. And also

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the CDC director just yesterday saying that the pandemic is

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:20.560
<v Speaker 1>still very much alive in the States for those who

0:23:20.600 --> 0:23:24.439
<v Speaker 1>are unvaccinated, and which is quite a substantial number of individuals.

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think, you know, to expect that we're out

0:23:27.280 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>of the pandemic just yet might be a little bit

0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:32.680
<v Speaker 1>too premature. I think the pandemic is going to have

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:37.000
<v Speaker 1>long shadows on policy on markets, and what today we

0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:40.600
<v Speaker 1>are seeing is I think predominantly related to the concern

0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:44.600
<v Speaker 1>that the reopenings reopening story might take a while to

0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:47.879
<v Speaker 1>really get to get going. So having said that, are

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:52.960
<v Speaker 1>we are you redoing your market models? Well, we do

0:23:53.119 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 1>our strategic models at the start of the year, which

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 1>is a long term view of the markets, and and

0:23:58.480 --> 0:24:02.000
<v Speaker 1>they're given that vational levels that we have been for

0:24:02.119 --> 0:24:05.200
<v Speaker 1>the last you know, a few months, we did the

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:08.960
<v Speaker 1>revised LOBO our equity market returns for the next ten years.

0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Having said that, you know, the short term tactical models,

0:24:12.520 --> 0:24:15.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, we are looking at beyond a lot of

0:24:15.480 --> 0:24:19.000
<v Speaker 1>these peaks, be it peak and uh, you know, economic growth.

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:21.000
<v Speaker 1>I think rather than just rolling over, I think we

0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:24.200
<v Speaker 1>have plateaued and you're gonna see start to see moderation

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.399
<v Speaker 1>in the economic growth numbers. Saying could be set for

0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:30.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, EPs growth number that we're going to see

0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 1>in the second quarter. I think chances are in the

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 1>second half of beer you're gonna start seeing moderation and

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:40.240
<v Speaker 1>peak earnings growth. So peak economic growth, peak earnings growth

0:24:40.520 --> 0:24:43.240
<v Speaker 1>most likely behind us when you're looking at the policy

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:46.240
<v Speaker 1>similar spoth from fiscal and monetary side, and I think

0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:49.000
<v Speaker 1>there's good the you know, case to be made that

0:24:49.119 --> 0:24:53.719
<v Speaker 1>even the big fiscal and Montrey impulses maybe also behind us.

0:24:53.760 --> 0:24:57.080
<v Speaker 1>So I think when you take all of these things together, Carol, uh,

0:24:58.000 --> 0:25:00.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, a good rationale can be made. The markets

0:25:00.920 --> 0:25:03.639
<v Speaker 1>we just still you know, above double digits here today.

0:25:03.760 --> 0:25:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's not forget that might be you know, taking some

0:25:07.119 --> 0:25:11.040
<v Speaker 1>pause here, right and it's not like we're falling out

0:25:11.119 --> 0:25:14.120
<v Speaker 1>of bed and forgive me and our Dave Wilson, I thought,

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:17.280
<v Speaker 1>gave us some really smart perspective on Bloomberg Radio and

0:25:17.280 --> 0:25:20.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg TV earlier today and talked about the conviction to

0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 1>the downside, or perhaps lack thereof. I mean, big tech,

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:27.119
<v Speaker 1>there are gains there. Small cap, which I've really taken

0:25:27.160 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 1>a beating over the last few weeks, a few months,

0:25:30.240 --> 0:25:32.920
<v Speaker 1>we've definitely seen a pull back there. They're not off

0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:36.160
<v Speaker 1>as much as the bigger broader market averages gold isn't

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're not saying gold up a lot. So

0:25:40.520 --> 0:25:43.119
<v Speaker 1>when you put that together, to me, it feels rather

0:25:43.359 --> 0:25:45.720
<v Speaker 1>orderly in terms of the pullback, and maybe to be

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:49.919
<v Speaker 1>expected considering the run up that we've had. Absolutely, I mean,

0:25:50.160 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 1>I think we need to keep in mind that once

0:25:52.800 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 1>a year and the markets do correct, right that they

0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:59.320
<v Speaker 1>you do see a ten plus percent pullback, and three

0:25:59.440 --> 0:26:01.320
<v Speaker 1>or four times during the course of the year you're

0:26:01.359 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 1>going to see a five plus percent retracement, and and

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:07.159
<v Speaker 1>we haven't had one in quite some time. What we

0:26:07.320 --> 0:26:10.480
<v Speaker 1>have seen, however, is what I would call rolling corrections,

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:13.560
<v Speaker 1>where rather than a broad based market correction, you've seen

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:16.840
<v Speaker 1>certain sectors of the market go through, you know, a

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:19.880
<v Speaker 1>pullback or a correction. You know, it started with uh,

0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:23.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, last year it was the value cyclical place

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.680
<v Speaker 1>they're corrected, and earlier this year it was the tech

0:26:26.760 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 1>starts and some of the other you know, high flying links,

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:33.280
<v Speaker 1>be it on spack, innovation, e S. G um. So

0:26:33.600 --> 0:26:36.359
<v Speaker 1>a lot of those things I think are still a

0:26:36.480 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>concern and hence being selective really makes a lot of sense.

0:26:40.720 --> 0:26:43.840
<v Speaker 1>And and here I would advise that you know, you

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:47.000
<v Speaker 1>could have your base rationale in terms of if you're

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>really sensitive to heighten the inflation risk in your portfolio,

0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:53.919
<v Speaker 1>maybe then you want to be have a little bit

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:57.680
<v Speaker 1>more biased towards the defensive. If your biggest you know,

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:02.240
<v Speaker 1>positive by this towards the reopening, then maybe it's a

0:27:02.280 --> 0:27:04.440
<v Speaker 1>good time to start laying into some of these value

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 1>names that have been clobored most recently given this reopening hiccup,

0:27:09.240 --> 0:27:11.640
<v Speaker 1>because I do feel that, you know, it's not all

0:27:11.880 --> 0:27:15.480
<v Speaker 1>end for the for the leisure, entertainment, airlines and truth

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:17.960
<v Speaker 1>industry stocks. These are going to come back once you

0:27:18.040 --> 0:27:20.399
<v Speaker 1>start seeing more clarity in terms of the where we

0:27:20.480 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>are with the delta variant. So markets may be reacting

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 1>like they're supposed to write this progression. This whole idea,

0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:29.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it's really smart, this idea of rolling correction.

0:27:29.720 --> 0:27:33.520
<v Speaker 1>Right the markets are looking at what's happening and reacting,

0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 1>and markets you know, hopefully you know, are an indicator

0:27:36.720 --> 0:27:39.320
<v Speaker 1>of kind of what's to come uh and and kind

0:27:39.359 --> 0:27:43.520
<v Speaker 1>of foreshadowing. And so we're seeing the evolution as we

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:47.080
<v Speaker 1>move through this recovery, which everyone has been reminding us,

0:27:47.760 --> 0:27:50.920
<v Speaker 1>including all the FETE officials, but market watchers, CEOs. It's

0:27:50.960 --> 0:27:53.959
<v Speaker 1>not a health officials. It's not a straight path forward.

0:27:55.800 --> 0:27:59.200
<v Speaker 1>It isn't And I think the only concern that I

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:01.920
<v Speaker 1>have there is really what the bond market is saying,

0:28:02.000 --> 0:28:05.400
<v Speaker 1>which has been the case right for for quite some time.

0:28:05.760 --> 0:28:08.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, when you look at a tenure number, you know,

0:28:08.320 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>yields at one point one eight, I mean, that's really

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:15.840
<v Speaker 1>telling me maybe the bond market is going beyond the

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:21.240
<v Speaker 1>recovery and really looking at what the terminal rate when

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the next time that starts to hike, which is still

0:28:23.640 --> 0:28:27.159
<v Speaker 1>years away. As for the most recent said you know,

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:30.359
<v Speaker 1>dot clot, maybe the terminal rate that we're going to

0:28:30.480 --> 0:28:32.720
<v Speaker 1>get to for this economy is not going to be

0:28:32.840 --> 0:28:34.919
<v Speaker 1>even close to what we had in the last bikele,

0:28:34.960 --> 0:28:36.760
<v Speaker 1>which was two and a half per cent. So I

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>think that to me a little bit of an area

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:43.680
<v Speaker 1>of concern um that bond holders you are really struggling.

0:28:44.000 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 1>The financial repression is up and running, you know, full

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:52.840
<v Speaker 1>steam ahead. And also well let me just ask you, though,

0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:56.680
<v Speaker 1>do you think the bond market story narrative and the

0:28:56.800 --> 0:28:59.920
<v Speaker 1>equity market narrative, especially on a day like today, are

0:29:00.080 --> 0:29:03.040
<v Speaker 1>in sync? They make sense? Are they at odds with

0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:08.360
<v Speaker 1>one another. Is the equity market still too optimistic compared

0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:09.800
<v Speaker 1>to what you're seeing in the bond market, or is

0:29:09.840 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 1>the bond market too pessimistic. I would say it's the ladder.

0:29:15.760 --> 0:29:18.440
<v Speaker 1>I think the bond market is a bit more pessimistic

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:23.040
<v Speaker 1>than what even the real you know, economic data, sentiment indicators,

0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:26.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, you look at soft and hard data from

0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 1>this army what they're suggesting. But that could also be

0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 1>a function of the bond market, especially when you're looking

0:29:31.920 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 1>at ten years, you know, number it's a little bit

0:29:35.480 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 1>further out right when you look at stock market, especially

0:29:39.720 --> 0:29:42.120
<v Speaker 1>the earnings there for the next for this quarter, in

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 1>the next quarter. So I think there's a little bit

0:29:44.200 --> 0:29:48.040
<v Speaker 1>of a difference in terms of the time frame we're

0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:52.240
<v Speaker 1>talking about. But the bond market has been concerned with

0:29:52.440 --> 0:29:56.360
<v Speaker 1>regards to you know, the Fed dot plots side. It

0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 1>seems to me that the bond market is just not

0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 1>ready for any talk of tapering either. And maybe that's

0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:04.920
<v Speaker 1>going to be the real test, you know, in the

0:30:05.000 --> 0:30:09.719
<v Speaker 1>next few months, when the Fed dog starts to you know, telegraph,

0:30:09.960 --> 0:30:14.080
<v Speaker 1>wh at what stage it's gonna start implementing this tapering program.

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:17.480
<v Speaker 1>But I do feel that the bond Mark is definitely

0:30:17.960 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 1>much more pessimistic view of the reopening story, and maybe

0:30:22.640 --> 0:30:26.320
<v Speaker 1>the debt overhangs. Yeah, certainly it certainly feels that way. Deepak.

0:30:26.360 --> 0:30:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Dpak Purry, chief Investment Officer of

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:32.280
<v Speaker 1>America's Atory to Bank Wealth, with us on the phone

0:30:32.400 --> 0:30:36.600
<v Speaker 1>in New York City. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:42.000
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0:30:42.040 --> 0:30:45.040
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0:30:45.240 --> 0:30:46.640
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