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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daly Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Peraltic. Can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: This podcast being brought to you by bet MGM. It's

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Speaker 1: always found on bettingpros dot com and wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcast YouTube video as well. Every single morning this drops. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so the night is not complete. We are off to

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Speaker 1: a decent start, however, because if you take a look

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Speaker 1: at the two plays we made one Team USA under

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Speaker 1: that hit, so we're up one oh so far, we've

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Speaker 1: got the over for Australia and Slovenia still to come. Now.

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Speaker 1: The parlay is also still alive because the Reds run

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Speaker 1: line first five nine nothing that was good against the Pirates,

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Speaker 1: take that for sure. And then we had Team USA

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Speaker 1: in France plus twelve and a half that also cashed.

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Speaker 1: I bet these individually. So right now on the day,

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Speaker 1: I'm three and oh for myself and we've got the

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Speaker 1: parlay going now it's a plus six thirty parlay. I

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Speaker 1: always recommend hedging. Okay, I'm not going to hedge because

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Speaker 1: even if I lose, it's two and one and then

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Speaker 1: hopefully the over hits and we'll see how the day goes.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna I'm not. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: parlay going, so I don't bet these, so I bet

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Speaker 1: them individually. So basically, for me, I'm gonna let it ride.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Australia plus two. It's now two

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Speaker 1: and a half. You can jump on that if you like.

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Speaker 1: I've got Australia plus two and a half on the parlay.

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Speaker 1: If that cash is it's a plus six thirty hit

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Speaker 1: for the don't bet parlays on a Friday, so we've

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Speaker 1: got that rolling or hedge and lay the two with

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Speaker 1: Slovenia to guarantee yourself. How I recommend hedging is basically,

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Speaker 1: go about twenty five percent over your initial bet to

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Speaker 1: make it back. So if you've bet one hundred dollars,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna win six hundred and thirty dollars. So I

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Speaker 1: would come back and I would make sure that I'm

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Speaker 1: going to win, you know, two hundred dollars, so I

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Speaker 1: would come back and make sure I'm going to link.

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Speaker 1: You know. That's fifty percent basically, but you can try

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Speaker 1: to get one fifty if you want whatever you're gonna

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Speaker 1: lay in Slovenia, lay in the two and a half

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Speaker 1: points to come back on the other side, you know,

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Speaker 1: with a one hundred dollars one hundred fifty dollar bet,

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Speaker 1: whatever it might be to clear over one hundred dollars,

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Speaker 1: so you make some money. So either you're gonna win

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty or so you walk away with

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Speaker 1: one hundred bucks walk away with fifty bucks, basically, right,

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Speaker 1: So just guarantee you some have a profit of some

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Speaker 1: sort and you can bet more than that if you like,

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Speaker 1: but or let it ride if you want. But I

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Speaker 1: recommend hedging. I always think you should at least break even.

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Speaker 1: But you have a chance to make a little money

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Speaker 1: back because you have a six thirty plus six thirty

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Speaker 1: bet sitting there for you, So hedging I always recommend it.

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Speaker 1: It's just a matter of how much you want to

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Speaker 1: cut into the potential win. If Australia does cover and

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Speaker 1: that's you know, bringing you back six hundred and thirty dollars.

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Speaker 1: So it depends how much one hundred dollars bet, So

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Speaker 1: it'spend how much money cut into it. How much do

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Speaker 1: you want to limit yourself. But the parlay is five

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Speaker 1: and twenty two. It's looking strong to potentially go FI

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Speaker 1: six and twenty two. We're up eleven units on that.

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Speaker 1: If you bet one hundred dollars you'd be up eleven hundred.

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Speaker 1: So we've done fairly well with this, even though the

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Speaker 1: record stinks. We've hit some big ones, so this is

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Speaker 1: not a big one. But it's on pace now that

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Speaker 1: the first two legs are done. I do recommend parlay.

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Speaker 1: I do recommend hedging if you did bet the parlay,

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Speaker 1: but that's we'll see. So want to know. So far,

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Speaker 1: we don't know about the over for australiagains Slovenia. We

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Speaker 1: won't know to we wake up tomorrow morning. But it's

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Speaker 1: an overnight bet. Okay, So here's what's gonna happen for today.

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Speaker 1: I don't like the card today, not in love with

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Speaker 1: it at all. I've got two baseball plays, I have

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Speaker 1: two UFC plays, and I have one bet on golf.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm searching here, Okay, I'm looking around. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna get a little exotic okay, and I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: quickly here and you can take the bet MGM off

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Speaker 1: for the twenty bucks to win one hundred dollars on

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Speaker 1: any one of these bets. Use promo code Juice one

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Speaker 1: hundred at bet MGM to get into this. And you know,

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Speaker 1: a couple of these bets are small, a couple of

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Speaker 1: these bets are flyers. I'm not gonna sit here and

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Speaker 1: tell you I'm gonna have a whole lot committed today,

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Speaker 1: even though we could wind up with a decent two

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Speaker 1: and oh day, and you know, personally, I could wind

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Speaker 1: up what five and oh on the day, so it

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Speaker 1: could be a huge day. I don't love the card

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Speaker 1: here for Saturday. So all right, let's start with the

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Speaker 1: main event for UFC two sixty five. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: the two big boys, Derek Lewis and Serial Gone. This

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Speaker 1: is an interim heavyweight title belt. Okay, Derek Lewis is

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Speaker 1: in home in Houston. Derek Lewis twenty five and seven

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Speaker 1: within one to no contest. Serial Gone is much younger,

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Speaker 1: five years younger, just nine to zero in the UFC,

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Speaker 1: but Cerial Gon's average fight time is fifteen minutes and

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Speaker 1: fifteen seconds. Both these dudes are big. Ceial Gon is

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Speaker 1: a lot lighter. Lewis weighed in about fifteen pounds heavier

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Speaker 1: than Cerial Gon did Okay, he's in a coming of

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Speaker 1: this fight somewhere around two fifty two fifty five. Lewis

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Speaker 1: is probably gonna be somewhere around two eighty for this fight, Okay.

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Speaker 1: Gon has a reach advantage. And what's interesting, strikes landed

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Speaker 1: per minute Serial Gone five point one Derek Lewis two

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Speaker 1: point five one. Pund knockout power is what Derek Lewis

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Speaker 1: is going to bring to the octagon. We're talking about

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Speaker 1: strikes absorbed almost even two point six to two point one, Okay,

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Speaker 1: But the difference really comes down to the takedowns. You

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Speaker 1: can't take Serial Gone down, Okay, one hundred percent takedown defense.

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Speaker 1: He's never been taken down in his professional career. No

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Speaker 1: one's ever taken him down. Okay, but this dude will

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Speaker 1: go for takedowns okay. Averages nearly one takedown per three minutes,

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Speaker 1: story three rounds per fifteen minutes. Takedown accuracy about twenty

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Speaker 1: one percent. Serial Gon is a more well rounded fighter, Okay.

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Speaker 1: Serial Gon In his career, his last two fights have

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Speaker 1: gone all five rounds. Both fights I was in Volkov

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Speaker 1: and Agains Rosenstrike have all gone to the cards five

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Speaker 1: minutes and five minutes. A lot of talk going into

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Speaker 1: this about Derek Lewis wanting to have an exciting fight

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Speaker 1: because Serial Gon is a boring fighter. It's a real

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Speaker 1: interesting piece to this. Okay, this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a very, I think boring fight. I think this is

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Speaker 1: a boring card and a boring fight, and I think

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Speaker 1: ciial Gon's whole game plan is to stay away from

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Speaker 1: Derek Lewis. Don't get clipped. He's gonna come forward. Gon's

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Speaker 1: gonna use his reach and use his legs and try

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Speaker 1: to keep him away. I look, I think he's gonna

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Speaker 1: try to take him a deep water. I know everyone's

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Speaker 1: coming in here and they're betting this fight. It's minus

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Speaker 1: two hundred to not go the distance. All right, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take a flyer and I'm gonna go against all

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Speaker 1: of the trends and look, this could be a one

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Speaker 1: punch knockout power and then that's it. But I think

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Speaker 1: this card sucks. I think this fight's gonna suck. I'm

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Speaker 1: taking this fight to go to the cards, to go

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Speaker 1: to the distance five awful, boring rounds. I think Derek

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Speaker 1: Lewis will be a slobbering mess by the fourth round.

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Speaker 1: But he's hard to get out of there, and I

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Speaker 1: think people in Houston are going to be ticked off. Look,

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Speaker 1: whenever a fighter says I'm nervous about this guy not

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Speaker 1: having an exciting fight. He's a boring fighter. He's a

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Speaker 1: tactical fighter, he's a boring This boring that, I go, hmmm,

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Speaker 1: one guy's gonna push pace, next guy's gonna kind of

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Speaker 1: back off. It's plus one sixty. I think there's good value.

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Speaker 1: It's a value play. I might be dead wrong. Big

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Speaker 1: boys knocking to the route, but the total is four

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Speaker 1: and a half at certain books. The West Gate in

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Speaker 1: Vegas is four and a half four and a half

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Speaker 1: for a five round heavyweight fight. I feel like the

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Speaker 1: books are telling us something. Okay, It's just like it

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Speaker 1: feels like everyone's like, oh yeah, it's going inside the

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Speaker 1: distance minus two hundred. The under four and a half

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Speaker 1: rounds is like mine one eighty, right, So they're shading

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Speaker 1: it heavily towards the under because they think it might happen.

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Speaker 1: But just the fact the number is not two and

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Speaker 1: a half or at Circus Sports it's three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Heavily juiced, but it's you know, it's still three and

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Speaker 1: a half. So I just I wonder if there's a

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Speaker 1: trap being set here and for a quarter unit, why

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Speaker 1: the hell not, Let's go with the fight goes to

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Speaker 1: the cards, it goes to the distance at plus one

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Speaker 1: point sixty at a quarter unit. Now, just in case

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Speaker 1: it doesn't go the distance, how does the fight end?

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Speaker 1: Here's an interesting thought. Serial Gon is a better grappler.

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Speaker 1: He's a better He's a dude who has a who

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Speaker 1: has two. Actually, he's got three submissions on his card

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Speaker 1: for in his professional career. He's got three of them. Okay,

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Speaker 1: he submitted Bobby Sullivan with a front choke. He submitted

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Speaker 1: a guy named Raphael Paysoa with an arm triangle, and

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Speaker 1: a guy named Dantel Mays this was in the UFC

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Speaker 1: with a heelhook. Gone by submission is plus seven hundred. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I know Derek Lewis does not get submitted. I understand that.

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Speaker 1: But if Derek Lewis is tired and he's worn out

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Speaker 1: in the fourth round and the gas tank is empty,

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Speaker 1: Serial Gone gets through to the ground. He's a grappler,

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Speaker 1: he's got the big advantage on the on the ground,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think he wants to stand and bang

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Speaker 1: with Derek Lewis. Cereal Gon is a lot lighter, quicker,

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Speaker 1: could grapple, move around. Cereal gone by submission at plus

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Speaker 1: seven hundred for a quarter unit. Just a flyer. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this may be me just lighting a half a unit

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Speaker 1: on fire. Very possible, But I hate the card. There's

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Speaker 1: nothing I like on this card. It should not be

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Speaker 1: a pay per view by the way, this is a

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Speaker 1: joke card for a pay per view perspective. UFC got

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Speaker 1: stuck the a mand of New Net situation with her

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Speaker 1: testing positive for COVID nineteen. This interim heavyweight title is

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Speaker 1: a nonsensical belt. This is nothing like the champion is

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Speaker 1: Francis in Ghanu. Okay, Syrial Gon needed some help. They're

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Speaker 1: going to Houston. So you've got Derek Lewis and you

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Speaker 1: got a hometown fan favorite. It's hard not to like

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Speaker 1: the Black Beast. Okay, this dude is funny, he's charismatic,

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Speaker 1: he loves his hometown. Not interested really in belts, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't really care about that, but you have he put

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Speaker 1: a belt on this fight for whatever reason. Fine, Okay,

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Speaker 1: quarter unit gone by submission. Fight to go to the distance.

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Speaker 1: Plus one sixty at a quarter unit. Okay, a plus

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Speaker 1: one sixty and a plus seven hundred, just to have

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Speaker 1: something on this fight on this fight card. I hate

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Speaker 1: the card, flat out hate the card. And the UFC

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Speaker 1: does two for that matter, they hate the card too,

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Speaker 1: but so be it. All right, let's go to golf,

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Speaker 1: third round of the Saint Jude WGC Classic. Did you

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Speaker 1: know that Web Simpson is the number one scorer in

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Speaker 1: the third round? It's this is the same handicap that

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Speaker 1: we used in the first round to cash the ticket

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Speaker 1: that we found. Now we found value in the first

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Speaker 1: round because Cam Smith was tremendous in the first round

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Speaker 1: and he was plus money plus one forty eight in

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Speaker 1: his head to head. Well, this is not the same.

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Speaker 1: Web Simpson is favored over Corey Connors round three at

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty. Web Simpson is number one round scoring.

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Speaker 1: The tour average is seventy point six. Web Simpson is

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Speaker 1: sixty eight point one, well below the tour average. Web

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Speaker 1: Simpson so far here in this tournament has played pretty well.

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Speaker 1: Web Simpson is currently at four under par, shooting a

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Speaker 1: seventy one sixty five sixty five. On Friday, we go

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Speaker 1: to the weekend there's no cut on this because it's

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Speaker 1: a WCGC event. But he's going up against Corey Connors

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Speaker 1: who went sixty seven sixty nine, So not as good

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Speaker 1: as a score on round two, but a better score

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Speaker 1: in round number one than what web Simpson put out.

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Speaker 1: But like we mentioned, Web Simpson goes really low Corey

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Speaker 1: Conners in round three. Not horrific for him in round three,

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Speaker 1: just not like the guy who's number one on tour

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Speaker 1: when it comes to scoring. In the third round, he's

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Speaker 1: tied for fifty ninth. Last week he was tied for

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Speaker 1: sixty first in terms of where they are, so outside

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Speaker 1: the top fifty for rounds round three scoring. Websimson played

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Speaker 1: well in round two, Let's have web Simpson play well

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Speaker 1: in round number one. Three web Simpson over Corey Connor's

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Speaker 1: head to head round three only at minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit. Okay, there's play number. That's

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Speaker 1: how we put the first full unit in play. Second

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Speaker 1: full unit in play is this, and we go to baseball.

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Speaker 1: So yesterday we were on the reds on the run

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Speaker 1: line in the first five. Okay, first five up against

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Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Pirates. But Vladimir Gudieris is going to the

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Speaker 1: mound for the Reds. Okay, the Reds in this big,

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Speaker 1: cavernous ballpark. Difficult place to pitch, okay, and a real

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Speaker 1: tough to place to pitch for Vladimir Goodery. Goudierras Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Goodieer's at home is one in two with a seven

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Speaker 1: point one seven ERA. He's given up a bunch of

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Speaker 1: arn runs, seventeen of them eight home runs, compared to five.

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Speaker 1: On the road. He's five and one on the road

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Speaker 1: with a three point one point one ER. Bad place

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Speaker 1: to pitch, right, home run hitting ballpark, difficult place to

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Speaker 1: get after it. But the Reds won ten nothing yesterday.

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Speaker 1: All right, Gudieris goes to the mound here. And if

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Speaker 1: you are a Pittsburgh Pirate fan, Mitch Keller doesn't exactly

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Speaker 1: give you, you know, the warm and fuzzies. You aren't

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Speaker 1: jumping up and down. But Mitch Keller on the road

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Speaker 1: has been better than Mitch Keller at home. Mitch Keller

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Speaker 1: at home is two and six with an eight point

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Speaker 1: twenty nine ER. Mitch Keller on the road is one

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Speaker 1: and two with a four point eight two ERA. The

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Speaker 1: Reds have been very good first five. That's what we

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Speaker 1: were on them yesterday. However, when a team gets shut out,

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Speaker 1: one team scored a ton of runs, I tend to

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Speaker 1: look to come back on the other side. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Speaker 1: first five reverse run line. They're catching a run. They

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Speaker 1: can be down three to two, they can be down

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Speaker 1: four to three after five, and we push on this bet.

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Speaker 1: If we're tied after five, we cash. The Pirates are

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Speaker 1: only minus one fifteen on the run line in the

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Speaker 1: first five. I'm gonna go against some of the trends here,

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Speaker 1: go against what happened yesterday, and say the Pirates can

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Speaker 1: hang around here bounce back after a really embarrassing loss

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Speaker 1: to the Reds yesterday. First five reverse run line Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: plus one run against Cincinnati. Let's see if Goodyears gets

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Speaker 1: lit up at home again. Here Pirates offense comes to life,

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Speaker 1: hopefully here in this game on a Saturday, we're going

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Speaker 1: reverse run line plus one for the Pirates, mines one

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Speaker 1: fifteen for a half a unit, and the other final

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Speaker 1: half a unit we're going to the Pirates and the Diamondbacks.

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Speaker 1: The Diamondbacks won last night eight to six, a road

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Speaker 1: win for the Pirates. Sorry for the Diamondbacks are the

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Speaker 1: only their fourteenth win away from home. Crazy right, Well,

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Speaker 1: now it's you Darvish against Taylor Widener. Widener's got a

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Speaker 1: five point zero five ERA one point four whip you

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Speaker 1: Darvis seven and six or a three point four to

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Speaker 1: eight er. This is a must, okay. The Diamondbacks thirty

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Speaker 1: six and twenty three at home. There's six on the

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Speaker 1: year against Diamonbacks. Dinbacks are one of the worst teams

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Speaker 1: on the road, Like we know this, but they've won

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Speaker 1: some games at in San Diego ten to one. They've

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Speaker 1: won in San Diego, won eight to five last night.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go. It's a Fox Sports one game,

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Speaker 1: first five run line, laying a full run for the

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Speaker 1: Pirates up against you, Darvish. Hopefully you play pitches well.

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Speaker 1: The offense comes to life here a little bit. Taylor

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Speaker 1: Widner gets hit hard. I'm gonna lay them as one

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Speaker 1: thirty here, Pirates run line, first five against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Speaker 1: All right, so those two full units we've gotten play here,

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Speaker 1: little funky, not a great card. Don't love Saturday. Can't

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Speaker 1: wait till next weekend we can get into betting on football.

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Speaker 1: And let's see if we can get that Slovenia cash

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Speaker 1: to come in as well from yesterday to go two

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Speaker 1: and zero yesterday, that would be wonderful, and maybe even

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Speaker 1: the parlay hits as well, which would equally would be great.

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Speaker 1: So okay, once again to recap the plays here, quarter

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Speaker 1: unit on two bets in the UFC each a quarter

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Speaker 1: unit plus one sixty five to go to the disne

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Speaker 1: to the main event and plus seven hundred gone by

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Speaker 1: submission against Derek Lewis for a quarter unit Web Simpson

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Speaker 1: over Corey Connors round three only half a unit's head

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Speaker 1: to head that is a round three bet only. Then

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Speaker 1: we're going I guess I have a two and a

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Speaker 1: half units in play here half a unit Pirates run

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Speaker 1: line plus one first five and minus one fifteen and

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Speaker 1: Padre's run line minus one first five at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 1: Are the plays today. For a Saturday, check me out

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Speaker 1: in the Discord channel. We'll have some conversations and sweat

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Speaker 1: some games together bettingpros dot com slast chat or on

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Speaker 1: the link underneath me on YouTube to hop on in

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel. Each and every single morning, it's the

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast being brought to you by bet MGM

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Speaker 1: right here on bettingpros dot com.