WEBVTT - OpenAI Launches Faster and Cheaper AI Model With GPT-4o

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio, Let's get to you what.

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<v Speaker 2>Seems to be a daily drop of news on the

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<v Speaker 2>world of artificial intelligence. A lot going on Alphabet's Google

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<v Speaker 2>Io Annual Developers Conference that's happening today. It's expected to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about a lot of different AI features for its

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<v Speaker 2>search business and broader ecosystem. This event coming one day

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<v Speaker 2>after a similar one from open ai, where it launched

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<v Speaker 2>a faster and cheaper version of its chat GPT model.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's get to our tracker of all things artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News AI reporter Rachel Metz. We caught up with

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<v Speaker 2>her at last weeks Bloomberg Technology Summer. Got a great

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<v Speaker 2>rundown on all things AI. But as we said, everything's

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<v Speaker 2>happening or something new every day. It feels like she's

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<v Speaker 2>with us from San Francisco. All right, Rachel, let's start

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<v Speaker 2>with what we got from open Ai faster, cheaper model.

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<v Speaker 2>What's different from the version that everybody's been talking about

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<v Speaker 2>for the last year and a half.

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<v Speaker 3>Hello, Yeah, so we have a GPT for O. The

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<v Speaker 3>O in opening I speak stands for omnimodel, and basically

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<v Speaker 3>what that means is they used to take a bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of models that could do different things and chain them together,

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<v Speaker 3>and now what they're going to be doing is they're

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<v Speaker 3>sort of pushing it all into one AI model, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's part of why they say they're able to make

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<v Speaker 3>it faster, so they can do things like a much

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<v Speaker 3>more close to real time audio interaction, which makes it

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<v Speaker 3>feel more lifelike. Like if you're talking to the app

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<v Speaker 3>right now and you want it to talk back to you,

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<v Speaker 3>you're gonna have to wait like there's you know, like

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<v Speaker 3>there's some very clear latency and then it will respond

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<v Speaker 3>in one of the several voices that has in there

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<v Speaker 3>with this upcoming voice feature, it's very snappy from what

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<v Speaker 3>they demonstrated, like almost instantaneous, as though I were talking

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<v Speaker 3>to another person.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, So there's that going on, I thought. I also,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's interesting, you know CHATGBT, right, it's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of the gold standard. I feel like everything is kind

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<v Speaker 2>of measured off of that.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that fair?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think that it is fair in that

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<v Speaker 3>people seem to be using it a lot. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>I think the figure that we have was like, what

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<v Speaker 3>is it, like one hundred million users or one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>something like that. People have used it. It's quite popular,

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<v Speaker 3>and yeah, I think people think about it as sort

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<v Speaker 3>of a gold standard in terms of what one can

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<v Speaker 3>do right now, what a state of the art and

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<v Speaker 3>replicable with the chatbot. So yeah, I think that's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of a fair barometer.

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<v Speaker 5>So here's the question I have relative to the Google statement.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, I've been using Google literally since late nineties,

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<v Speaker 5>two thousand something like that. Yeah, and the concept of

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<v Speaker 5>organizing the world's information. They always did that really well

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<v Speaker 5>till about I don't know, five years ago, and suddenly

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<v Speaker 5>search just became festooned with sponsored answers and ads and

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<v Speaker 5>then Google Zone products and sometimes you have to go

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<v Speaker 5>like three or four screens down to actually find a

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<v Speaker 5>search result. And my personal search seems to be less

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<v Speaker 5>on Google and more on products like Perplexity, which uses

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<v Speaker 5>either the claud or the Shannon or a couple of

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<v Speaker 5>different engine AI engines and I find the answers I

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<v Speaker 5>get are so much better and the list of sources

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<v Speaker 5>so much better than fighting on Perplexity then fighting through

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<v Speaker 5>the Google homepage. I'm wondering how much of this AI

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<v Speaker 5>built into the search bar is a recognition of Google

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<v Speaker 5>Search has really become, you know, fairly mediocre compared to

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<v Speaker 5>being the best there was.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, Rachel, come on in on that.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm curious about, you know, at this developer conference event,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, what are we learning in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>a THEAAR front that might help maybe change Parry's view

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to Google and alphabet.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, I mean, I think I think you're right about Perplexity.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of people have been drawn to it. It

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<v Speaker 3>seems to be combining a lot of things in a

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<v Speaker 3>really smart way. When I use it, I'm struck by

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<v Speaker 3>how well it puts things together, and it has some

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<v Speaker 3>good like follow up questions I might want to ask

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<v Speaker 3>things like that. I'm insights its sources. So like from

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<v Speaker 3>my reporting, we know that Opening Eye is working on

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<v Speaker 3>its own search project which may be similar to Perplexity.

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<v Speaker 3>And we saw this morning that Google said it's going

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<v Speaker 3>to it's going to make the sort of like AI

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<v Speaker 3>assisted answers that right now are sort of an optional thing.

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<v Speaker 3>It's going to make those a more integrated part of

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<v Speaker 3>its search results. So if that works for you, and

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<v Speaker 3>we'll probably have to see over time, that could make

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<v Speaker 3>it so you feel better about the results that you're getting.

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<v Speaker 3>But I guess for me personally, I'm still kind of

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<v Speaker 3>wary of trusting anything that's AI assisted unless I check

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<v Speaker 3>with the soul or set it. Perplexity obviously is really

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<v Speaker 3>good for that, So I think it's going to take

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<v Speaker 3>some time still for us to figure out what works

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<v Speaker 3>best and how we should put these tools together. And

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<v Speaker 3>you know, maybe you'll use Google for certain things, Perplexity

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<v Speaker 3>for other things, Opening Eye for yet other things.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, you always have to double check that hallucinations are

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<v Speaker 5>not part of your answer. And that is the technical

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<v Speaker 5>term for when AI either find something wrong on the

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<v Speaker 5>Internet or just kind of spitballs and makes it up

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<v Speaker 5>things that are wildly wrong. A couple of weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 5>I interviewed Bill Dudley of the New York Fed and

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<v Speaker 5>I was kind of surprised to learn from AI that

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<v Speaker 5>he was an NFL fullback in the nineteen forties, especially

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<v Speaker 5>because he wasn't born until then.

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<v Speaker 2>Ye, So listen, Rachel just got the same name, right, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>the same name.

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<v Speaker 3>Waits those I mean, there's multiple Rachel messas out there,

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<v Speaker 3>and AI sometimes will conflate us. I have multiple jobs

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<v Speaker 3>according to AI that I've never had. You know, things

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<v Speaker 3>like that.

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<v Speaker 5>You would think intelligence would say, oh, this was before

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<v Speaker 5>he was born. Right, Maybe it's less intelligent than we're

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<v Speaker 5>giving you credit. Although Jim O'Shaughnessy said AI today is

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<v Speaker 5>the worst it'll ever be. It's only getting better every day.

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<v Speaker 2>Listen, the more data you put in, right, Rachel just

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<v Speaker 2>got twenty seconds, the better it's going to become.

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<v Speaker 3>We assume that's what people have been saying, but I

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<v Speaker 3>don't know. I think we may we've been seeing those

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<v Speaker 3>kinds of results. That is true, but we'll see over

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<v Speaker 3>the next few years if more compute, more data really

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<v Speaker 3>does lead to better AI.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's only going to be better as good as

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<v Speaker 2>I guess the data is.

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<v Speaker 4>Rachel.

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<v Speaker 2>I know a lot going on, and we appreciate you

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<v Speaker 2>jumping in. Bloomberg News AI reporter Rachel met.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons. From two to five pm Eastern Listen

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple card Play and then Bright Auto with a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business at or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll talk about betterans on Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 2>We often mean individuals who have worked there a long time,

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<v Speaker 2>seen lots of market cycles.

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<v Speaker 4>People like Barry have lots.

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<v Speaker 2>Of experience investing in trading and global financial markets. But

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<v Speaker 2>it is also about the growing relationship between Wall Street

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<v Speaker 2>firms and US military veterans who, after serving their country,

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<v Speaker 2>find a second chapter working at financial firms around the country.

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<v Speaker 2>And that includes at Wells Fargo, which last year hired

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<v Speaker 2>over eleven hundred veterans, with four percent of Wells Fargo

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<v Speaker 2>employees self identifying as a veteran. Two members of its

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<v Speaker 2>board of directors are US veterans. Bloomberg, by the way,

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<v Speaker 2>hosting today the Wells Fargo Military Appreciation Event with more.

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<v Speaker 2>We welcome John Weiss, He's co CEO of Wells Fargo

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<v Speaker 2>Corporate and Investment Bank, joining us here in studio as

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<v Speaker 2>the daughter of a VET cousins brother, I salute you,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think it's really important that we remember those

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<v Speaker 2>who serve our country, and I want to talk about

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<v Speaker 2>that in a moment your father, Thank you, Thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>He and his brothers World War two, all of them

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<v Speaker 2>and all came home, which was pretty remarkable. I want

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<v Speaker 2>to ask you, though, because you have such a great

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<v Speaker 2>lens on the world, and I think we're at this

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<v Speaker 2>interesting juncture in terms of trying to figure out the

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<v Speaker 2>way forward, the business environment, the macro environment, the deal environment.

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<v Speaker 2>How would you describe kind of where we are.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, first of all, thank you for having me,

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<v Speaker 6>and we're delighted to be collaborating with Bloomberg on this

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<v Speaker 6>important topic of veterans. As to the macro picture, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>it's I guess a unique time. I would say that

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<v Speaker 6>the US economy is quite resilient, and you know, it's

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<v Speaker 6>a good place to be headquartered. You know, every new

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<v Speaker 6>piece of economic information sends us darting in one direction

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<v Speaker 6>or another. And we've got CPI tomorrow, and the PPI

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<v Speaker 6>that came out this morning is encouraging from a standpoint

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<v Speaker 6>of as the market digested it, at least encouraging from

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<v Speaker 6>the standpoint of maybe a somewhat better inflation picture. But

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<v Speaker 6>CPI is the important data point for this week, so

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<v Speaker 6>we'll see how that comes out tomorrow. Deal activity business

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<v Speaker 6>activity actually quite good, and I would say there's a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of pent up demands, certainly a lot of private

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<v Speaker 6>equity capital out.

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<v Speaker 4>There looking to make those exits.

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<v Speaker 6>Right, yeah, look at well on the one hand looking

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<v Speaker 6>to make exits and on the other hand looking to

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<v Speaker 6>make investments. So both sides of the deal are covered there.

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<v Speaker 6>And I would say strategics are getting a little bit

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<v Speaker 6>more impatient about pursuing their own strategic goals. So I

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<v Speaker 6>feel things are reasonably stable right now, as stable as

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<v Speaker 6>you could say they could be, given that we've got

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<v Speaker 6>a war going on in the Middle East, a war

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<v Speaker 6>going on in Europe, and a lot of uncertainty around

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<v Speaker 6>the US election. So given all those things, it's remarkable

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<v Speaker 6>how well the economy and the market seem to be

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<v Speaker 6>digesting it all.

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<v Speaker 5>So let's use those two wars as a leaping off

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<v Speaker 5>point to discuss the work that you guys are doing

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<v Speaker 5>with the veterans. In my office, my CFO used to

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<v Speaker 5>be a tank commander in Afghanistan. Our head traders sat

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<v Speaker 5>in the back of easy two Hawkeyes directing all the

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<v Speaker 5>traffic over Iraq during that war. What led And by

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<v Speaker 5>the way, they're fantastic and there are secret weapons? What

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<v Speaker 5>led Wells Fargo down the path to Hey, we really

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<v Speaker 5>want to recruit from this pool of people. How did

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<v Speaker 5>you discover what an amazing talent pool instead of skills

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<v Speaker 5>exists there.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, the first thing I would say is, I don't

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<v Speaker 6>think we're completely unique in this area. I think Wall

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<v Speaker 6>Street in general has been very supportive of veterans.

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<v Speaker 2>We're welckoming.

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<v Speaker 6>So that's the first thing. The second thing is, look,

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<v Speaker 6>we're always looking for talent, and when you are looking,

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<v Speaker 6>as we are in our industry for people that perform

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<v Speaker 6>well under pressure, that would naturally bring you to this

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<v Speaker 6>population of people who have learned to you know, to

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<v Speaker 6>serve and to execute under pressure. And then there's of course.

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<v Speaker 4>The is a trait you recognize, right John, in terms.

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<v Speaker 5>Of just get it done, Like whatever we have to do,

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<v Speaker 5>just get it done. I love that attitude.

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<v Speaker 6>It's absolutely the case. And then there's the last thing,

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<v Speaker 6>which is, of course we're supportive for social reasons. You know,

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<v Speaker 6>these are people that in some cases gave them all,

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<v Speaker 6>but their friends certainly did, and they served their country,

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<v Speaker 6>and a part of our responsibility is to help them

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<v Speaker 6>transition back into society.

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<v Speaker 2>Because it's interesting because I feel like, and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>want to be, you know, so critical of the government,

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<v Speaker 2>but I just feel like people come home and then

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<v Speaker 2>they don't have homes, they don't have jobs. You guys

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<v Speaker 2>actually get into some of the basic need. It's about

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<v Speaker 2>providing jobs, but it's providing things like homes.

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<v Speaker 6>So, but let's start with jobs within the corporate and

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<v Speaker 6>investment bank. You mentioned that we've hired as a company

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<v Speaker 6>eleven hundred veterans this year. That's a pretty good pace.

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<v Speaker 6>Can probably do more on the corporate and investment side.

0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:08.400
<v Speaker 6>We have various programs that allow us to bring veterans

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 6>on board for summer associate roles for more permanent assignments.

0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:18.280
<v Speaker 6>We're working with some of our clients to recognize the

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 6>talent of their vets and give them opportunities to continue.

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:27.080
<v Speaker 2>That's what I think is interesting when we talk about diversity, inclusion, equality,

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 2>it's the supply chain, the pipeline. It's not just what

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:32.960
<v Speaker 2>you do at your company, but right kind.

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.560
<v Speaker 6>Of it's working with your clients. We work with a

0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.560
<v Speaker 6>lot of veteran owned broker dealers, for example, and we

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:42.000
<v Speaker 6>bring them into deals and we try to help train

0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.200
<v Speaker 6>their people in products and services that we provide that

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:46.640
<v Speaker 6>maybe they don't have the same depth.

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:51.560
<v Speaker 5>Then that's really quite fascinating, especially when you think about

0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 5>the problems we've seen in via hospitals and things. Getting

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.560
<v Speaker 5>people on your payroll with your healthcare has to be

0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.680
<v Speaker 5>a huge life upgrade for them.

0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:08.679
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, certainly, I mean career matters right to overall livelihood.

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 6>But getting back to the question the carol last a

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 6>minute ago, so so yes, the company very specifically has

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:22.040
<v Speaker 6>focused on the veteran population as an area for focus,

0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 6>and that that focus takes you know, comes in different ways.

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 6>We've on an annual basis given donated new cars free

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 6>of financing to veterans. We've donated something in the neighborhood

0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 6>of four hundred homes over the last ten years. This

0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:49.600
<v Speaker 6>is providing housing free to veterans, and we don't look

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.560
<v Speaker 6>at it as a handout. We look at this is

0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.400
<v Speaker 6>often used phrase, we look at it as a hand

0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 6>up because what they really need is some assistance and

0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:02.240
<v Speaker 6>they will pay that back already have to society, so

0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:04.680
<v Speaker 6>we feel really good about it. We also give a

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 6>lot of funding out of our foundation to various veteran causes.

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 2>I always think about the audience who's listening, And I

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 2>think again, we you know, have you know, segments of

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 2>our society and population that are forgotten, including the vets.

0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, is there a message that you think more

0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 2>widely that we should all think about as we go

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 2>about our business on a daily basis.

0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.160
<v Speaker 6>I mean, it's it's not going to be a new

0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 6>idea to people, but we all live our lives in

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 6>a very safe place, and it's because there are people

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.840
<v Speaker 6>out there protecting us, whether those are first responders here

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:44.520
<v Speaker 6>in you know, domestic US or members of the military

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 6>serving outside the US. So I guess the messages we

0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:53.120
<v Speaker 6>are all in this together and we all have to

0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 6>bear our share of the responsibility.

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 2>How do you think about the future in terms of

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 2>what Wells Fargo wants to do next?

0:14:58.560 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 1>We want to do next?

0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:01.600
<v Speaker 4>Is it just more and just continue to build it

0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 4>out more?

0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Yes?

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 3>Better?

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:09.400
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely, you know we're focused as a company on running

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 6>the bank better, serving our clients better, managing risk better,

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 6>and just being a better run organization overall.

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 2>Really just really fascinating, and I do think about it.

0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.840
<v Speaker 2>I think unless you've maybe if if you've had somebody

0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 2>in your life like you say, you've got people working

0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 2>or I've got it. Certainly my family many members, several

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.920
<v Speaker 2>have done tours in the Middle East, and I do

0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.480
<v Speaker 2>think there's something about this environment right now where we're

0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 2>very sensitive to sending American soldiers over to some extent.

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 2>But it's just the role the United States States plays

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 2>globally in kind of protecting the world. Like you just

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 2>have to think about it, and we take it for granted.

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 5>You know, after twenty years of war in the Middle East,

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 5>I think the country kind of has gotten fatigued, and

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.400
<v Speaker 5>it's easy to forget about the people coming home who

0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 5>then have to just turn their life up right down

0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 5>to normalize things. We've been a little negligent paying attention

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 5>to them. I'm glad to hear you guys are moving

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 5>in this direction, and I've been in this direction for

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 5>quite some time well.

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 6>As a child of the sixties, all right, we can't

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 6>forget some of the lessons of the sixties, and one

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 6>of them was certainly welcoming the veteran back after the war,

0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.480
<v Speaker 6>which we did not as well as we should have

0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 6>in the sixties. We certainly did, I think well post

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:29.640
<v Speaker 6>World War Two, and hopefully we're doing a better job today.

0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.320
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting that you bring it because I think about

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 2>when my dad and his brothers came home and the

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.880
<v Speaker 2>GI bill and going to school and just it was

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 2>such a welcoming back, if you will, and such a

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 2>support system, and that it's just kind of amazing to

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 2>see kind of where it's What do you think it

0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 2>is about the financial community, as you said, not just

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 2>well as Fargo, but we talk about it a lot

0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 2>here at Bloomberg in terms of the financial community and

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.280
<v Speaker 2>their support of veterans in particular.

0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 4>What do you think it is about that?

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 6>I think I don't know. Maybe part of it is

0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:05.719
<v Speaker 6>the focus of New York City and understanding what happens

0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 6>when things do go wrong, which you know, those of

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 6>us who live through nine to eleven certainly remember. But

0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.320
<v Speaker 6>you know, it's also it's a responsible It's a part

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:20.680
<v Speaker 6>of society that wants to prove its sense of responsibility.

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 6>I think I think Wall Street really does care about

0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 6>its image, and it cares, you know, in a real

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 6>way about carrying its share of responsibility.

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.840
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and when you look at the veterans, these are

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 5>people who understand risk, They understand working within a team

0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:42.399
<v Speaker 5>and leadership, and the parallels are just all there. If

0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.879
<v Speaker 5>you want someone who has your back, whether you're in

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.520
<v Speaker 5>the field or on a desk, it's hard to do

0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:50.480
<v Speaker 5>better than military veterans.

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:51.720
<v Speaker 4>It just makes a lot of sense. John.

0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:53.919
<v Speaker 2>Great to get catch up with you and just kind

0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:55.400
<v Speaker 2>of hear about the work you guys are doing. Looking

0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 2>forward to hearing more. I know we're going to have

0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 2>another member of your team a little bit later on Bloomberg,

0:17:59.119 --> 0:17:59.879
<v Speaker 2>so looking forward to it.

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.920
<v Speaker 6>You'll be hearing from Mike Riley, who runs or co

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.840
<v Speaker 6>heads our market's division, who is a vet Submarine Navy

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.720
<v Speaker 6>right Navy X Submarine commander. Wow, you talk about somebody

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 6>you want to have, you know, having your back.

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:14.920
<v Speaker 4>Mike's the guy, John, Thank you so much.

0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 6>Thank you, John Wise.

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.640
<v Speaker 2>He's co CEO of Welsfargo Corporate and Investment Bank.

0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:28.280
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0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.280
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0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:34.560
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0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:39.359
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0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:48.240
<v Speaker 2>I want this empty stade on the ball of broken dreams.

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 2>All right, folks, sleep, sit down, grab something to drink.

0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Because this is a story of broken dreams. It's also

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.040
<v Speaker 2>a story that's among our most read on the Bloomberg today.

0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 2>It's a story about I Am Academy, also known as

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.639
<v Speaker 2>the Harvard of Trading, that grew from a small New

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:07.320
<v Speaker 2>York operation into a global phenomenon during the pandemic by

0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.640
<v Speaker 2>selling the promise that it could teach anyone, particularly teens

0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:14.720
<v Speaker 2>and twenty somethings, how to become a savvy retail investors

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.720
<v Speaker 2>for a fee. Of course, it promised a lot, and

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.760
<v Speaker 2>many lost a lot. We know we not wanted to

0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:22.760
<v Speaker 2>know more about this story, so with us as Bloomberg

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 2>News Personal Finance reporter Alice Cantor. She's joining us from London,

0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:28.960
<v Speaker 2>where we know it's a little bit later. So Alice,

0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 2>we so appreciate you hanging around to talk with us.

0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:33.680
<v Speaker 2>This story, by the way, to be featured in the

0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:36.320
<v Speaker 2>forthcoming issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine. You can read it

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 2>now on the Bloomberg and also find it at Bloomberg

0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 2>dot com slash BusinessWeek. First of all, a story like this, Alice,

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:44.800
<v Speaker 2>how did you first come across it?

0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:46.840
<v Speaker 3>Hi?

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.159
<v Speaker 7>Carol, Well, first, thanks for having me on. Yeah, so

0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.560
<v Speaker 7>I it was in the midst of the pandemic actually,

0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:56.000
<v Speaker 7>and I was looking at stories around financial crimes in

0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:59.119
<v Speaker 7>France because at the time I was in Paris, and

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.639
<v Speaker 7>I saw this small news website that did an investigation

0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:06.199
<v Speaker 7>about iam Academy in France, and it was about all

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 7>these teenagers who were getting really excited in the pandemic

0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.960
<v Speaker 7>about making money from memes, talks and bitcoin. I'm sure

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 7>you're familiar with that, and they had come across iam Academy,

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 7>this company that promised them that within a few months

0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:25.639
<v Speaker 7>they could really become multimillionaires. They could earn a passive

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:29.399
<v Speaker 7>income if they just knew the right strategy to trade online.

0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:32.240
<v Speaker 7>You know, they this company had the recipe for them.

0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.679
<v Speaker 7>So yeah, I started digging into it and found out

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 7>that France was just one of the many, many countries

0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:42.000
<v Speaker 7>that this New York based company had expanded in and

0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 7>was making a lot of victims.

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:47.359
<v Speaker 2>Essentially, Well, I want I want to get into the

0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:49.360
<v Speaker 2>size and scope in terms of how many got impacted.

0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:50.879
<v Speaker 4>But tell me, like how it works.

0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:52.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I've kind of read through here, so I

0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:54.679
<v Speaker 2>have an idea, But tell our world.

0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:56.760
<v Speaker 4>How this company worked.

0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 2>How it said, Okay, you're going to make money, and

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:01.199
<v Speaker 2>you know what was in in terms of becoming a

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 2>member and what you had to kind of give across.

0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:04.680
<v Speaker 4>Could you have to pay a fee right to be

0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:05.359
<v Speaker 4>a part of this.

0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:10.120
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, So initially it worked like any subscription to an

0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:14.800
<v Speaker 7>online product. It's like an online educational platform. So you

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 7>paid two hundred and fifty dollars to join, and then

0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:20.200
<v Speaker 7>you'd have to pay two hundred and fifty dollars every

0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:23.960
<v Speaker 7>month to keep having access to this online platform. And

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:27.720
<v Speaker 7>on the platform you'd get sort of pre recorded videos

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.840
<v Speaker 7>of I am so called I AM educators that would

0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:34.440
<v Speaker 7>teach you the basics of markets. You know, what, how

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.879
<v Speaker 7>do you make a stop loss, how do you figure

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.320
<v Speaker 7>out a difference in percentage points? And how do you

0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:42.959
<v Speaker 7>take advantage of them? And then they also said, well

0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:48.560
<v Speaker 7>they have this amazing algorithm that charts prices of currencies

0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 7>and stocks and any financial product, and this algorithm can

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:54.600
<v Speaker 7>sort of tell you when a price is going to

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.240
<v Speaker 7>go up or going to go down. And so if

0:21:57.240 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 7>you just pay the subscription, you'll have access to all

0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:04.720
<v Speaker 7>that information and you can really quite quickly earn money

0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 7>by using that trading advice and learning how to read

0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 7>those graphs.

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.280
<v Speaker 2>I feel like a lot of folks in the financial

0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:12.639
<v Speaker 2>community would be like, wait a minute, like what is

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:15.960
<v Speaker 2>this algorithm? And it almost sounds too good to be true?

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 2>Tell us about that. They targeted really a younger generation.

0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 2>How did they do that? I mean, it sounds like,

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:23.720
<v Speaker 2>you know, I was looking through it, you know, it

0:22:23.840 --> 0:22:26.119
<v Speaker 2>almost sounds like there were influencers out there about like,

0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 2>look at all the money you can you can make here.

0:22:29.400 --> 0:22:32.720
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely so, at the end of the day, the software

0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 7>that they promoted, the algorithm doesn't work. It's very basic,

0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:40.440
<v Speaker 7>it's not really predictive. But they really lured people in

0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:44.159
<v Speaker 7>through the lifestyle that that you could have once you

0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:47.399
<v Speaker 7>get those millions. And they did that on social media

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:52.639
<v Speaker 7>and essentially the CEO of the company hired these really muscular,

0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:58.199
<v Speaker 7>energetic salesmen that went on Instagram and showed their lives

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:01.320
<v Speaker 7>on a Dubai yacht or at a five star villa

0:23:01.440 --> 0:23:04.959
<v Speaker 7>in Italy saying, look, I'm this rich, you know, I'm

0:23:05.280 --> 0:23:06.960
<v Speaker 7>you want to be like me, Well, why don't you

0:23:07.040 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 7>just join? I am? And this is the recipe for

0:23:09.359 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 7>success eventually, So that's really how they attracted people that way.

0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:13.840
<v Speaker 4>Who's behind it all?

0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:17.080
<v Speaker 2>Tell us a bit about the company's CEO and how

0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:18.080
<v Speaker 2>he did in all of this.

0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:23.640
<v Speaker 7>Yes, so, Chris Terry is a man who was born

0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:28.640
<v Speaker 7>in the Bronx and he started working construction. He had

0:23:28.680 --> 0:23:32.960
<v Speaker 7>apparently the construction company had ties to a mob family

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:34.919
<v Speaker 7>and he had to pay a fine. He was like

0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 7>implicated in a criminal conspiracy. So that's where he started,

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:41.879
<v Speaker 7>and he likes to mention his mob background quite often.

0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 7>But then he went on to Amway and was a

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 7>salesman's for another multi level marketing company. And then after

0:23:50.800 --> 0:23:53.680
<v Speaker 7>that he tried to build a reputation of himself as

0:23:53.680 --> 0:23:57.440
<v Speaker 7>a trader, saying he was managing hedge funds and he

0:23:57.520 --> 0:24:01.760
<v Speaker 7>knew all about financial markets. But really he was never

0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 7>a financial broker. He has no financial real accreditation from

0:24:07.800 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 7>any real US institution, and he's made very well for himself,

0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:16.880
<v Speaker 7>so he's definitely a multi millionaire. I AM at its

0:24:16.880 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 7>height in the pandemic was selling the equivalent of five

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:24.840
<v Speaker 7>hundred to six hundred million dollars in subscriptions for the year.

0:24:25.640 --> 0:24:28.119
<v Speaker 7>And he flies around in his private jet and has

0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:30.200
<v Speaker 7>a bunch of condos around the World in Dubai in

0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:33.480
<v Speaker 7>Las Vegas in New York. So he's making a lot

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:34.199
<v Speaker 7>of money from all this.

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:36.880
<v Speaker 2>Tell us about I mean, so he made a lot

0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:39.520
<v Speaker 2>of money, But tell us about some of the individuals

0:24:39.800 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 2>who paid, who got a part of the platform, did

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:42.760
<v Speaker 2>some of the trading.

0:24:42.840 --> 0:24:43.640
<v Speaker 4>Some of these young.

0:24:43.480 --> 0:24:46.919
<v Speaker 2>Individuals some really sad stories in terms of what happened

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:47.240
<v Speaker 2>to them.

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:48.200
<v Speaker 4>They lost a lot.

0:24:49.800 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so people would come in thinking I'm going to

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:54.720
<v Speaker 7>learn all about retail trading, make a lot of money,

0:24:54.880 --> 0:24:57.240
<v Speaker 7>And what happens is not only do they pay the subscription,

0:24:57.320 --> 0:25:00.199
<v Speaker 7>but often they start trading and kind of gambling their

0:25:00.200 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 7>money away using strategies that don't work so pretty quickly

0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:07.159
<v Speaker 7>they'll have a lot of losses. But what I am

0:25:07.320 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 7>educators will tell them then is, well, there's this other

0:25:09.880 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 7>side of the business. You can earn a commission if

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:15.440
<v Speaker 7>you sell subscriptions to other members, and so that's the

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:18.439
<v Speaker 7>multi level marketing aspect of it. And so where it

0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:21.439
<v Speaker 7>gets a bit tricky and where people feel like they

0:25:21.520 --> 0:25:23.640
<v Speaker 7>can't leave the company and they end up losing way

0:25:23.640 --> 0:25:27.360
<v Speaker 7>more than just like a regular financial service, is that

0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:32.040
<v Speaker 7>these teenagers end up really kind of being gas lit

0:25:32.240 --> 0:25:34.679
<v Speaker 7>and a little bit sort of brainwashed into believing that,

0:25:35.160 --> 0:25:37.280
<v Speaker 7>you know, it's their life's purpose to be in this company.

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 7>They have to keep trying to recruit, they have to

0:25:39.359 --> 0:25:42.560
<v Speaker 7>keep bringing in more people. If they're failing, it's their fault.

0:25:42.840 --> 0:25:45.439
<v Speaker 7>So there's this whole strategy to keep people involved, to

0:25:45.520 --> 0:25:49.840
<v Speaker 7>keep people selling more subscriptions to others, even when they

0:25:49.880 --> 0:25:53.159
<v Speaker 7>realize the trading lessons are really basic and not helpful

0:25:53.200 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 7>at all.

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:56.679
<v Speaker 2>It does sound like, and I know you get into this,

0:25:56.760 --> 0:25:58.800
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's prime for regulators. It feels like to

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 2>take a look Alice, where are be on that front

0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 2>because it sounds like this, you know, has to be

0:26:02.320 --> 0:26:03.080
<v Speaker 2>on their radar.

0:26:04.400 --> 0:26:08.800
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely so, I mean across Europe, a bunch of investigations

0:26:08.800 --> 0:26:12.720
<v Speaker 7>are open at the moment, but nothing has really has

0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:16.120
<v Speaker 7>really happened so far. And then the biggest investigation that's

0:26:16.119 --> 0:26:19.119
<v Speaker 7>ongoing right now is by the FDC in the US

0:26:19.119 --> 0:26:22.760
<v Speaker 7>that is looking at iam Academy. They're reviewing complaints, they're

0:26:22.800 --> 0:26:26.720
<v Speaker 7>talking to the CEO, and well it looks like there

0:26:26.800 --> 0:26:29.400
<v Speaker 7>might there might be in discussions to kind of try

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:32.240
<v Speaker 7>to put an end to this company's activities. But to

0:26:32.320 --> 0:26:36.280
<v Speaker 7>be honest with you, Carol, there's not that many regulations

0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:39.480
<v Speaker 7>around multi level marketing companies or these kinds of financial

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:42.240
<v Speaker 7>education platforms, so they might just go on. They might

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:45.480
<v Speaker 7>just like filter through all these regulations that come come

0:26:45.680 --> 0:26:48.000
<v Speaker 7>kind of they might pay a fine and just and

0:26:48.080 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 7>just get on with their business.

0:26:50.000 --> 0:26:51.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I do wonder on something like this.

0:26:51.880 --> 0:26:54.000
<v Speaker 2>I mean, is it kind of eyes wide open if

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:56.199
<v Speaker 2>you're gonna pay money, like you have to kind of

0:26:56.200 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 2>know what you're getting into, or is it a case

0:26:58.320 --> 0:27:00.399
<v Speaker 2>of is there a way of proving And I'm not

0:27:00.440 --> 0:27:02.720
<v Speaker 2>saying there is, but you know, fraud of some sort

0:27:02.960 --> 0:27:05.480
<v Speaker 2>in promising an algorithm that's going to kind of do everything,

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:07.880
<v Speaker 2>or do we all just kind of know that maybe

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 2>if it sounds too good to be true, it's not

0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:10.400
<v Speaker 2>going to be true.

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:15.680
<v Speaker 7>Well, yes, they can be liable for making false income claims.

0:27:15.920 --> 0:27:18.320
<v Speaker 7>So early on they would have people on Instagram posting

0:27:18.359 --> 0:27:21.879
<v Speaker 7>like pictures of their rolexes and bills and saying, you know,

0:27:21.960 --> 0:27:24.959
<v Speaker 7>I make ten grand a month in passive earning and

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:28.000
<v Speaker 7>passive income. So those kinds of figures can really put

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:31.000
<v Speaker 7>the company in difficulty because you're not allowed to make

0:27:31.040 --> 0:27:33.119
<v Speaker 7>these claims unless you can back them up. And in

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 7>this case they can't. So that's one area that's problematic.

0:27:37.000 --> 0:27:39.719
<v Speaker 7>The other one is that they do They say they

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:42.960
<v Speaker 7>don't give financial advice, but really they kind of do,

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:45.960
<v Speaker 7>and they almost trade for the people that are part

0:27:45.960 --> 0:27:47.919
<v Speaker 7>of the company. It's kind of tricky, but they usually

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:52.520
<v Speaker 7>just right like tell them which brokers to go with.

0:27:53.600 --> 0:27:56.800
<v Speaker 7>They used to mirror trades automatically, so just like copy

0:27:56.800 --> 0:28:00.840
<v Speaker 7>and paste trades from traders and give it Chalice with

0:28:00.880 --> 0:28:01.280
<v Speaker 7>the members.

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:04.160
<v Speaker 2>I have to ask, you only got about thirty seconds,

0:28:04.200 --> 0:28:08.480
<v Speaker 2>so just quickly. Company is still active, Yes.

0:28:08.480 --> 0:28:11.440
<v Speaker 7>It is still active. I was just at a conference

0:28:11.480 --> 0:28:14.399
<v Speaker 7>there in Budapest that they had a huge company rally

0:28:14.400 --> 0:28:17.600
<v Speaker 7>a few months ago, So you're still active and doing well.

0:28:17.920 --> 0:28:20.199
<v Speaker 2>I got to say, you paint such incredible pictures in

0:28:20.240 --> 0:28:22.400
<v Speaker 2>this story. I feel like it's like a mini documentary

0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:24.760
<v Speaker 2>just waiting to happen. But it sounds like the story

0:28:24.840 --> 0:28:28.159
<v Speaker 2>still to be played out here, so we'll continue to

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:30.560
<v Speaker 2>follow any updates. I'm so glad we could get some

0:28:30.600 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 2>time with you to kind of spell it out for us.

0:28:32.400 --> 0:28:34.119
<v Speaker 2>As we said, it's among the most read stories on

0:28:34.119 --> 0:28:36.919
<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg Today. Alice Kanter, she's a Bloomberg News personal

0:28:36.920 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 2>finance reporter joining us from London and as we said,

0:28:40.640 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 2>among the.

0:28:41.040 --> 0:28:42.720
<v Speaker 4>Most read and you could check it out. It is

0:28:42.760 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 4>also going.

0:28:43.360 --> 0:28:46.600
<v Speaker 2>To be in the new issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek that's

0:28:46.640 --> 0:28:49.320
<v Speaker 2>coming out later on this week, and it's also already

0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:51.440
<v Speaker 2>on the Bloomberg. Coming up next, we talk a little

0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 2>bit about the workspace freelance workers.

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 4>There are a lot out there.

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:59.240
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Easter Listen

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:04.720
<v Speaker 1>on Apple car Play and ed Brout Auto with a

0:29:04.720 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app, or watching us Live on YouTube.

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 4>Two headlines.

0:29:11.520 --> 0:29:13.320
<v Speaker 2>I just wanted to mention in the last twenty four

0:29:13.360 --> 0:29:16.160
<v Speaker 2>hours or so Converse cutting jobs as part of parent

0:29:16.280 --> 0:29:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Nike's cost savings plan, Walmart acting hundreds of corporate jobs

0:29:21.040 --> 0:29:23.479
<v Speaker 2>and asking most remote workers to return to offices, according

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:25.920
<v Speaker 2>to a person familiar with the matter, and fetch your J.

0:29:26.120 --> 0:29:30.200
<v Speaker 2>Powell earlier today, weighing in from Amsterdam in a moderated conversation,

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:33.120
<v Speaker 2>saying there are signs of gradual cooling and rebalancing the

0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 2>US labor market, and yet at the same time, how

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:40.440
<v Speaker 2>the US is still experiencing labor shortage in many industries.

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 2>All right, so we wanted to talk a little bit

0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:44.000
<v Speaker 2>more about what's going on in the workforce. So we

0:29:44.000 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 2>welcome back Kelly Monahan. She's managing director with the Employment

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 2>Upwork Research Institute, which is a division of the publicly

0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:54.440
<v Speaker 2>held online recruitment and marketplace company Upwork.

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 4>She joins us from Florida. Kelly, great to have you

0:29:58.360 --> 0:29:59.280
<v Speaker 4>back with us. How are you.

0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:01.720
<v Speaker 8>I'm doing great, Thanks for having me.

0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:04.040
<v Speaker 4>Well, it's great to have you here. You guys have

0:30:04.080 --> 0:30:05.560
<v Speaker 4>some new research on gen Z.

0:30:06.120 --> 0:30:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Those was born I guess was it the late nineteen nineties,

0:30:08.840 --> 0:30:12.600
<v Speaker 2>early twenty ten, some twenty percent of our population. Why

0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:16.760
<v Speaker 2>first of all, did you focus on this group in particular, Yeah, that's.

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:18.360
<v Speaker 8>A great question. The reason why we zoomed in on

0:30:18.440 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 8>gen Z was two reasons. The first is at the

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.280
<v Speaker 8>end of the year, they're going to actually overtake in

0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:26.320
<v Speaker 8>terms of percentage of workforce the baby boomers, So just

0:30:26.360 --> 0:30:28.800
<v Speaker 8>by their sheer size as important, we understand whether they're

0:30:28.800 --> 0:30:31.480
<v Speaker 8>coming into the workforce. And it's also graduation season, and

0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:34.080
<v Speaker 8>so we wanted to also help gen z ers navigate

0:30:34.080 --> 0:30:35.960
<v Speaker 8>the new world of work they find themselves entering.

0:30:36.400 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 2>I got to say, walking in and around New York City,

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:40.640
<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of universities, saw a lot of Columbia

0:30:40.680 --> 0:30:45.200
<v Speaker 2>grads getting ready for graduate graduation ceremonies. That was interesting

0:30:45.240 --> 0:30:48.000
<v Speaker 2>to walk around. So you guys did some research into

0:30:48.040 --> 0:30:50.040
<v Speaker 2>this group. So what are first of all, let's start

0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 2>big and broad. What are the big findings that you

0:30:52.600 --> 0:30:53.480
<v Speaker 2>guys came up with.

0:30:55.000 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, the biggest finding I think is actually a big

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 8>wake up call for leaders today and what gen Z

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.960
<v Speaker 8>told us research, So they want to work differently than

0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:05.800
<v Speaker 8>the typical employment model is today, our most highly skilled

0:31:05.800 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 8>and highly educated freelancers are wanting to be entrepreneurs, and

0:31:09.680 --> 0:31:12.959
<v Speaker 8>they're actually finding a more stable career path towards managing

0:31:12.960 --> 0:31:16.720
<v Speaker 8>a portfolio of freelance project as an example, in order

0:31:16.760 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 8>to diversify their project work and diversify their income. So

0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 8>we think about all the things that gen Z has

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:25.440
<v Speaker 8>grown up in and in stable economy, the pandemic, they're

0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 8>really looking to take much more control and individualize their work.

0:31:29.040 --> 0:31:30.479
<v Speaker 8>And so that to me is a big wake up

0:31:30.480 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 8>call to leaders today to think through gen Z signaling

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:35.160
<v Speaker 8>to us that the way that we've structured work is

0:31:35.200 --> 0:31:38.440
<v Speaker 8>broken to them, they want more control and flexibility over

0:31:38.480 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 8>the way they're working today.

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:42.160
<v Speaker 2>Kelly, do they really really really want it or is

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:44.200
<v Speaker 2>it just kind of what's coming to them? And I

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.920
<v Speaker 2>asked that because, I mean, I get it. I'm in

0:31:46.960 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 2>the media world. I've seen lots of freelance work, and

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 2>I think some do really like it, but many are

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 2>still seeking out kind of that full time gig. I mean,

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:58.040
<v Speaker 2>do they really want this to be so many different

0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:00.640
<v Speaker 2>maybe smaller jobs, if you will, that kind of add

0:32:00.720 --> 0:32:01.320
<v Speaker 2>up to a whole.

0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:05.360
<v Speaker 8>That's such a great question. And here's what we're finding

0:32:05.400 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 8>within the data. Those that have a post grad degree

0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 8>are the ones that are actually more likely to be

0:32:09.960 --> 0:32:12.640
<v Speaker 8>structuring work this way. And I think the reason is

0:32:12.680 --> 0:32:15.400
<v Speaker 8>what they really really want to answer the question is flexibility.

0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:17.040
<v Speaker 8>And I think, you know, as we think through the

0:32:17.120 --> 0:32:19.680
<v Speaker 8>rto headlines that are coming back, the layoffs that have occurred,

0:32:19.720 --> 0:32:22.120
<v Speaker 8>especially within the tech industry, I'm going to be honest

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:24.080
<v Speaker 8>with you, I think it's spooked this generation a bit

0:32:24.480 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 8>and they're realizing that traditional contract with one employer being

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:31.239
<v Speaker 8>tethered to one organization can't get them to where they

0:32:31.240 --> 0:32:34.040
<v Speaker 8>want to go fast as fast enough and especially given

0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:36.920
<v Speaker 8>the economic conditions. They're growing up in the cost to

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:39.360
<v Speaker 8>buy a house, the cost to buy a car, groceries,

0:32:39.400 --> 0:32:42.000
<v Speaker 8>all this is so much more expensive. And so again

0:32:42.040 --> 0:32:44.239
<v Speaker 8>those that are highly educated and can really write their

0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:46.440
<v Speaker 8>own ticket, having the right skill sets that are in

0:32:46.440 --> 0:32:50.240
<v Speaker 8>demand we see in our data set are actually opting towards. Again,

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:53.000
<v Speaker 8>these aren't going to be your short typical gig type projects.

0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:54.720
<v Speaker 8>So these aren't going to be the people necessarily driving

0:32:54.720 --> 0:32:57.200
<v Speaker 8>an ubercar or doing door dash. These are the people

0:32:57.280 --> 0:32:59.280
<v Speaker 8>are going to come in and are tackling machine learning

0:32:59.520 --> 0:33:02.000
<v Speaker 8>or data science or your content creators and working on

0:33:02.080 --> 0:33:05.360
<v Speaker 8>longer term complex projects that quite frankly, as an early

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:08.200
<v Speaker 8>career professional walking into corporate America, they might not have

0:33:08.240 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 8>the opportunity to do.

0:33:09.280 --> 0:33:11.360
<v Speaker 2>Because I do wonder too, and just you know, indulge

0:33:11.400 --> 0:33:13.000
<v Speaker 2>me for a moment, like I do think. I watch,

0:33:13.280 --> 0:33:15.480
<v Speaker 2>you know, kind of the younger nieces and nephews in

0:33:15.520 --> 0:33:20.160
<v Speaker 2>my world, and just yeah, like the flexibility. But then

0:33:20.200 --> 0:33:21.640
<v Speaker 2>they get married and they have kids, and then they

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:25.240
<v Speaker 2>become very nine to five and they have to buy

0:33:25.280 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 2>a house, and so they want the benefits the healthcare

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 2>because I do think about that part of you know,

0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:34.959
<v Speaker 2>when you are piecing together freelance work. You don't have

0:33:35.000 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 2>all the amenities that you might get from a full

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:37.400
<v Speaker 2>time job.

0:33:38.960 --> 0:33:41.040
<v Speaker 8>You know, I think this is such a great question

0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:42.840
<v Speaker 8>you have, And really I'm calling this like the gen

0:33:42.960 --> 0:33:45.880
<v Speaker 8>Z paradox that we're seeing, because you're right. I think

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:49.400
<v Speaker 8>there's the reality of the macroeconomic conditions we're facing today

0:33:49.720 --> 0:33:52.360
<v Speaker 8>that are requiring a really need for income and to

0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:54.840
<v Speaker 8>get it faster and to get promoted faster, and so

0:33:54.880 --> 0:33:58.040
<v Speaker 8>there's these expectations of wanting more because of this, and

0:33:58.120 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 8>yet there's just a strong demand and desire for autonomy

0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:03.400
<v Speaker 8>and flexibility and some like when you can craft both

0:34:03.400 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 8>of those things, I think that's the best of both worlds.

0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:08.239
<v Speaker 8>You were absolutely correct though that I think the reality

0:34:08.239 --> 0:34:10.279
<v Speaker 8>that many are struggling with in the paradox they find

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:13.080
<v Speaker 8>themselves facing is what one do they have to choose?

0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:15.640
<v Speaker 8>And again, where they are right now, they're younger in

0:34:15.680 --> 0:34:17.879
<v Speaker 8>their careers, and we see this across many generations. You're

0:34:17.880 --> 0:34:20.279
<v Speaker 8>willing to take risk, you're able to try to think

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:23.040
<v Speaker 8>about entrepreneurship because you're at that right life stage to

0:34:23.120 --> 0:34:25.960
<v Speaker 8>do so. The more that you age, and to your point,

0:34:26.000 --> 0:34:28.400
<v Speaker 8>the more responsibilities and quite frankly the cost to incur

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:30.920
<v Speaker 8>I think gen Z is trying to weigh out how

0:34:30.920 --> 0:34:32.279
<v Speaker 8>long is it going to take me to climb the

0:34:32.440 --> 0:34:35.040
<v Speaker 8>corporate ladder? Do I have enough stability? Am I going

0:34:35.080 --> 0:34:37.320
<v Speaker 8>to end up getting laid off? Is this a safer

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:40.239
<v Speaker 8>route to actually diversify? And I think those are questions

0:34:40.480 --> 0:34:42.239
<v Speaker 8>that we're seeing played out in real time today by

0:34:42.239 --> 0:34:42.720
<v Speaker 8>this generation.

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:44.800
<v Speaker 2>All right, so then is there a message to corporate America.

0:34:44.840 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 2>You're saying, hey, folks, this is what's happening with the

0:34:47.680 --> 0:34:48.520
<v Speaker 2>current workforce.

0:34:48.520 --> 0:34:50.600
<v Speaker 4>You better wake up, especially.

0:34:50.160 --> 0:34:52.680
<v Speaker 2>When you know, when did I talk about Walmart saying hey, folks,

0:34:52.680 --> 0:34:54.880
<v Speaker 2>we want you back back at the office.

0:34:55.880 --> 0:34:57.800
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I found that so actually fascinating as I was

0:34:57.840 --> 0:35:00.319
<v Speaker 8>listening to you opening up the segment. I think this

0:35:00.360 --> 0:35:02.840
<v Speaker 8>is a big wake up call for corporate America today.

0:35:03.200 --> 0:35:06.040
<v Speaker 8>We know like the idea of work feeling broken, and

0:35:06.080 --> 0:35:08.480
<v Speaker 8>that we see the stats all the time that Gallop

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:12.439
<v Speaker 8>reports on employee engagement is not off the charts, it's low.

0:35:12.719 --> 0:35:16.040
<v Speaker 8>Most people are struggling today, and so there's something systematically

0:35:16.120 --> 0:35:18.640
<v Speaker 8>broken about the way that we've structured work today. In

0:35:18.680 --> 0:35:21.040
<v Speaker 8>the age of AI, in the age of distributed work,

0:35:21.080 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 8>we have all these new technologies that I think are

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 8>causing workers to think differently because they're behaving differently as customers.

0:35:28.120 --> 0:35:31.120
<v Speaker 8>And yet it's harder for us to move our organizational practices,

0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:33.960
<v Speaker 8>our systems and technologies that we built around that is

0:35:34.080 --> 0:35:37.640
<v Speaker 8>much more centered around this long term employment contract. The

0:35:37.680 --> 0:35:39.680
<v Speaker 8>reality is that's not the way the world's working today.

0:35:39.960 --> 0:35:43.000
<v Speaker 8>Customers are demanding much more speed and convenience, and because

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:45.839
<v Speaker 8>of that, that's really disrupted the entire way leaders are

0:35:45.840 --> 0:35:48.120
<v Speaker 8>thinking about work. And so the wake up call is,

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:50.440
<v Speaker 8>you can't continue to do business as usual. If your

0:35:50.480 --> 0:35:53.359
<v Speaker 8>plan is to attract and retrain gen Z talent by

0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:55.440
<v Speaker 8>doing what you're doing today, I would be honest with you,

0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:57.480
<v Speaker 8>there's not enough gen z ers coming up the ranks.

0:35:57.800 --> 0:36:00.920
<v Speaker 8>Baby Boomers are retiring at faster rads. In some industries

0:36:00.920 --> 0:36:03.640
<v Speaker 8>it's five to one ratio where baby boomers are leaving

0:36:03.680 --> 0:36:06.239
<v Speaker 8>to everyone gen Z. So we've got to wake up.

0:36:06.239 --> 0:36:07.759
<v Speaker 8>We've got to figure out how to make work for

0:36:07.840 --> 0:36:10.400
<v Speaker 8>the majority of people today, and I think that requires

0:36:10.400 --> 0:36:11.640
<v Speaker 8>some deep systematic change.

0:36:11.760 --> 0:36:14.400
<v Speaker 2>Is there anything that I'm going to throw out? Artificial

0:36:14.400 --> 0:36:17.359
<v Speaker 2>intelligence and anybody who's smart talks about and says we're

0:36:17.480 --> 0:36:20.400
<v Speaker 2>very early in terms of the impact it's going to

0:36:20.440 --> 0:36:23.160
<v Speaker 2>have on the workforce. Although having said that, there are

0:36:23.160 --> 0:36:25.000
<v Speaker 2>folks out there that are already saying we're a little

0:36:25.000 --> 0:36:27.200
<v Speaker 2>worried about the jobs that are going to be taken

0:36:27.280 --> 0:36:31.600
<v Speaker 2>or replaced by GENAI, machine learning and so on. Gen

0:36:31.680 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 2>Z in terms of how they approach AI, anything constructive

0:36:34.680 --> 0:36:35.600
<v Speaker 2>that you guys are coming.

0:36:35.480 --> 0:36:38.920
<v Speaker 8>Up with yet, Yeah, it's a great, great question. So

0:36:39.440 --> 0:36:41.400
<v Speaker 8>one big thing that I'm seeing that's the behavior change

0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:43.719
<v Speaker 8>in gen Z committed to other generations, is they are

0:36:43.719 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 8>adopting this technology much faster than other cohorts, and they're

0:36:48.080 --> 0:36:50.080
<v Speaker 8>doing so in two ways. One is that they are

0:36:50.120 --> 0:36:55.040
<v Speaker 8>self directed their learning. Because they're digitally native cohort, they're

0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:57.320
<v Speaker 8>not afraid to take these online courses. They're not afraid

0:36:57.320 --> 0:37:00.880
<v Speaker 8>to actually learn through online mechanisms, and so they're embracing

0:37:00.880 --> 0:37:02.759
<v Speaker 8>this and are much more likely to have a certificate

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:05.799
<v Speaker 8>today in AI as an example. But here's the other thing,

0:37:05.800 --> 0:37:07.520
<v Speaker 8>and this is what I actually think is so interesting.

0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:10.880
<v Speaker 8>They're much more willing to go for coaching and advice

0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:14.640
<v Speaker 8>to systems like chat SCHPT, so these large language models,

0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:17.160
<v Speaker 8>they're a bit more organic and inherent in the way

0:37:17.160 --> 0:37:20.040
<v Speaker 8>that they're interacting with them to get advice. Gen Z

0:37:20.120 --> 0:37:22.960
<v Speaker 8>in particular hates and efficiency, and so their ability to

0:37:22.960 --> 0:37:26.279
<v Speaker 8>actually utilize these tools to work faster is really mind

0:37:26.320 --> 0:37:28.719
<v Speaker 8>blowing to me. And so I do think this generation

0:37:28.920 --> 0:37:31.120
<v Speaker 8>is going to help us shape what this world of

0:37:31.160 --> 0:37:33.120
<v Speaker 8>work is going to look like in the age of AI.

0:37:33.920 --> 0:37:35.520
<v Speaker 8>The messaging is like, if you're not gen Z, we

0:37:35.520 --> 0:37:38.200
<v Speaker 8>got to play catch up the rest of our older generations.

0:37:38.280 --> 0:37:40.399
<v Speaker 2>I do want to be smart because I know always

0:37:40.440 --> 0:37:42.360
<v Speaker 2>get emails like after I have a conversation like this

0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:44.680
<v Speaker 2>and they say, well, wait a minute, Like you look

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:47.400
<v Speaker 2>at a lot of the pandemic darling stocks. Kind of

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:50.239
<v Speaker 2>funny that we're talking about memestocks today, but you saw

0:37:50.360 --> 0:37:52.799
<v Speaker 2>like such an uptick in things that benefited because we

0:37:52.800 --> 0:37:54.799
<v Speaker 2>were shut down, people were laid off, there were just

0:37:54.840 --> 0:37:58.600
<v Speaker 2>things we did differently. Small businesses were being created. Are

0:37:58.640 --> 0:38:01.280
<v Speaker 2>we kind of though in terms of people with freelance

0:38:01.400 --> 0:38:04.120
<v Speaker 2>generally speaking or doing it on their own kind of

0:38:04.120 --> 0:38:06.200
<v Speaker 2>getting back more to twenty nineteen levels And forgive me,

0:38:06.200 --> 0:38:07.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm only got about thirty seconds.

0:38:07.520 --> 0:38:08.800
<v Speaker 4>Got to be quick, there's.

0:38:08.560 --> 0:38:12.239
<v Speaker 8>No problem, Yeah, no worries. So absolutely the pandemic has

0:38:12.239 --> 0:38:14.600
<v Speaker 8>accelerated this. But I will tell you from our research

0:38:14.680 --> 0:38:16.960
<v Speaker 8>gen Z who's doing this from a full time basis,

0:38:17.360 --> 0:38:19.560
<v Speaker 8>have been doing it for two plus years. So I

0:38:19.600 --> 0:38:21.560
<v Speaker 8>do think there's a trend that we've got to watch

0:38:21.600 --> 0:38:23.600
<v Speaker 8>out for. I do think it's going to be much

0:38:23.600 --> 0:38:25.560
<v Speaker 8>more mainstream and not just a pandemic flip.

0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:27.800
<v Speaker 2>All right, we're gonna leave it on that note, Kelly.

0:38:28.000 --> 0:38:29.840
<v Speaker 2>Great to get some time with you, doctor Kelly Monahan.

0:38:29.920 --> 0:38:34.759
<v Speaker 2>She's managing director of Upwork Research Institute, joining us from Florida,

0:38:34.880 --> 0:38:36.680
<v Speaker 2>and still got a few weeks before we get our

0:38:36.719 --> 0:38:39.239
<v Speaker 2>next monthly read on the labor market. But something to

0:38:39.280 --> 0:38:41.120
<v Speaker 2>think about, especially when it comes to kind of a

0:38:41.160 --> 0:38:42.440
<v Speaker 2>younger generation.

0:38:43.360 --> 0:38:46.120
<v Speaker 5>A bromuk.

0:38:47.000 --> 0:38:47.680
<v Speaker 9>A journal.

0:38:48.680 --> 0:38:49.680
<v Speaker 8>Now about you let me drive?

0:38:49.960 --> 0:38:51.960
<v Speaker 5>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:38:53.040 --> 0:38:53.520
<v Speaker 7>Honey?

0:38:53.560 --> 0:38:53.880
<v Speaker 9>Please?

0:38:54.000 --> 0:38:56.920
<v Speaker 6>I'll do the riding gravels. Excuse mate, I want to

0:38:57.000 --> 0:39:01.840
<v Speaker 6>try to quit time lesson.

0:39:04.200 --> 0:39:10.600
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes Well on Bloomberg Radio.

0:39:10.800 --> 0:39:13.479
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody just got about just under eighteen minutes

0:39:13.520 --> 0:39:14.840
<v Speaker 2>left in today's trading session.

0:39:14.920 --> 0:39:15.600
<v Speaker 4>Let's get to it.

0:39:15.960 --> 0:39:18.560
<v Speaker 2>Our Drive to the closed guest a special guest Michael Riley,

0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:21.480
<v Speaker 2>co head of markets at Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment

0:39:21.520 --> 0:39:24.160
<v Speaker 2>Bank here in our Bloomberg in Director Broker Studio. Also

0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:27.680
<v Speaker 2>participating in the Wells Fargo Military Appreciation event here at

0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:31.080
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Headquarters today. Michael, by the way, a decorated officer

0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:33.600
<v Speaker 2>in the Navy, where he served aboard the nuclear submarine

0:39:33.880 --> 0:39:38.279
<v Speaker 2>USS Memphis. Excuse me, yes, USS Memphis. Let me try

0:39:38.280 --> 0:39:42.640
<v Speaker 2>back and say that again, USS Memphis. Welcome, Welcome, Thank

0:39:42.680 --> 0:39:43.360
<v Speaker 2>you for being with us.

0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:44.239
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, thanks for having me.

0:39:44.280 --> 0:39:45.840
<v Speaker 4>I think my brother was on the Abraham Lincoln.

0:39:45.880 --> 0:39:47.759
<v Speaker 2>We were talking before we got started because he was

0:39:47.800 --> 0:39:50.480
<v Speaker 2>also in the Navy.

0:39:50.000 --> 0:39:51.560
<v Speaker 4>I want to ask you.

0:39:52.040 --> 0:39:53.839
<v Speaker 2>I feel like there's a million places I want to go,

0:39:55.120 --> 0:39:57.680
<v Speaker 2>but I want to ask you about being in the Navy,

0:39:57.840 --> 0:40:00.960
<v Speaker 2>what you learned and how that kind of translated to

0:40:01.040 --> 0:40:02.320
<v Speaker 2>being in the financial industry.

0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:04.640
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I mean it's it's a good question. I get

0:40:04.640 --> 0:40:07.000
<v Speaker 9>that question a lot, especially from people from veterans as

0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:09.759
<v Speaker 9>they're trying to transition out, because they don't necessarily know

0:40:09.760 --> 0:40:12.839
<v Speaker 9>as much about the financial industry as as they would

0:40:12.880 --> 0:40:14.880
<v Speaker 9>if they had been gone gone through school where you

0:40:15.440 --> 0:40:18.280
<v Speaker 9>like I was. I mean, I had an undergraduate business degree,

0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:20.920
<v Speaker 9>but I was also a chemical engineer. Right, So ultimately

0:40:20.920 --> 0:40:23.920
<v Speaker 9>I was an engineer, so I didn't really know that

0:40:24.000 --> 0:40:25.719
<v Speaker 9>much about it either. It just from talking to people

0:40:25.719 --> 0:40:28.239
<v Speaker 9>in networking, right, I think I think you know, and

0:40:28.280 --> 0:40:30.239
<v Speaker 9>you asked the question. To answer your question in terms

0:40:30.239 --> 0:40:34.279
<v Speaker 9>of what I learned, I mean, certainly perseverance is one thing, right,

0:40:34.360 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 9>And and personal responsibility around things. I think. I think

0:40:37.880 --> 0:40:40.600
<v Speaker 9>being in the military, you're thrown into, uh, you know,

0:40:40.640 --> 0:40:43.319
<v Speaker 9>a role of responsibility much faster than most people coming

0:40:43.360 --> 0:40:45.920
<v Speaker 9>out of directly out of college. Right. So you know

0:40:46.080 --> 0:40:47.600
<v Speaker 9>when I came out of college, I was I was

0:40:47.600 --> 0:40:50.719
<v Speaker 9>put on a nuclear submarine, you know, basically to run

0:40:50.760 --> 0:40:53.799
<v Speaker 9>a nuclear actor five hundred feet underwater. Right, So too

0:40:53.880 --> 0:40:56.080
<v Speaker 9>much pressure, not too much respect. Not many people have

0:40:56.800 --> 0:40:59.520
<v Speaker 9>had that experience. I mean, certainly some, but you know

0:40:59.560 --> 0:41:01.319
<v Speaker 9>it was some then it was it was a life

0:41:01.360 --> 0:41:03.400
<v Speaker 9>experience that you know a lot of people will never

0:41:03.440 --> 0:41:04.240
<v Speaker 9>get to experience.

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:04.640
<v Speaker 3>Well.

0:41:04.680 --> 0:41:06.520
<v Speaker 2>And I think about kind of what you're doing markets,

0:41:06.880 --> 0:41:09.480
<v Speaker 2>and I feel like this environment, the m and a environment, right,

0:41:09.520 --> 0:41:11.439
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's it's a tricky one. I think people

0:41:11.480 --> 0:41:13.480
<v Speaker 2>are trying to figure the way forward. You were just

0:41:13.520 --> 0:41:15.000
<v Speaker 2>at Milk and we were talking a little bit about

0:41:15.000 --> 0:41:16.279
<v Speaker 2>it I was at Milk and it felt like that

0:41:16.360 --> 0:41:19.240
<v Speaker 2>there was a lot more optimism than we've seen, certainly

0:41:19.320 --> 0:41:20.240
<v Speaker 2>the last two years.

0:41:20.280 --> 0:41:22.319
<v Speaker 4>How do you see the macro environment right now?

0:41:22.480 --> 0:41:24.920
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I mean, look, there certainly is a lot of optimism,

0:41:25.040 --> 0:41:27.759
<v Speaker 9>right I think that people have already started to look

0:41:27.800 --> 0:41:30.160
<v Speaker 9>forward towards the rate cuts. I think part of the

0:41:30.160 --> 0:41:32.279
<v Speaker 9>problem is they've been looking forward for a year now.

0:41:32.360 --> 0:41:33.440
<v Speaker 4>Is that a mistake in your review?

0:41:33.719 --> 0:41:36.239
<v Speaker 9>I think it has been historically, But I mean, you know,

0:41:36.560 --> 0:41:39.279
<v Speaker 9>it's worked so far, and hopefully things will kind of

0:41:39.320 --> 0:41:42.120
<v Speaker 9>coast in, you know, over the next six ish to

0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:45.200
<v Speaker 9>nine months. I mean, now the speculation is I mean,

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:47.719
<v Speaker 9>at least probability would say that, you know, the next

0:41:47.719 --> 0:41:49.760
<v Speaker 9>cut would probably be or the first cut would probably

0:41:49.760 --> 0:41:52.919
<v Speaker 9>be some time at the September meeting. I mean that's

0:41:53.000 --> 0:41:53.920
<v Speaker 9>our view as a house.

0:41:54.000 --> 0:41:56.000
<v Speaker 4>But we'll see probably get CPI tomorrow and then we

0:41:56.040 --> 0:41:56.520
<v Speaker 4>get Yeah, I.

0:41:56.520 --> 0:41:58.440
<v Speaker 9>Mean our view was we were cut in June two.

0:41:58.520 --> 0:42:00.600
<v Speaker 9>So like, I mean, it just keeps getting pushed out.

0:42:00.680 --> 0:42:03.120
<v Speaker 9>I think I think there's just too much uncertainty around

0:42:03.360 --> 0:42:06.359
<v Speaker 9>around you know, conflicting inflationary data versus jobs data.

0:42:06.880 --> 0:42:07.600
<v Speaker 4>Does it meant it?

0:42:07.600 --> 0:42:09.080
<v Speaker 2>Like I think about in your markets group, right, you

0:42:09.120 --> 0:42:11.239
<v Speaker 2>guys are up what about thirty seven percent year every

0:42:11.280 --> 0:42:14.640
<v Speaker 2>year in the last earnings report markets division in general,

0:42:15.320 --> 0:42:18.000
<v Speaker 2>you also saw gains in investment, banking, the trading market

0:42:18.000 --> 0:42:21.040
<v Speaker 2>space as well. I mean volatility, Like traders love volatility.

0:42:21.120 --> 0:42:23.359
<v Speaker 2>That's a good thing, and you anticipate that that continues.

0:42:23.560 --> 0:42:25.719
<v Speaker 9>I do, well, I think, well, so we were thirty

0:42:25.719 --> 0:42:28.080
<v Speaker 9>seven percent last year versus the year before. This year,

0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:30.520
<v Speaker 9>we're kind of on par for where we were last year,

0:42:30.560 --> 0:42:32.680
<v Speaker 9>so it's not really a huge gain, but I mean,

0:42:32.719 --> 0:42:35.280
<v Speaker 9>certainly volatility helps. There was a lot of volatility, especially

0:42:35.280 --> 0:42:37.000
<v Speaker 9>in the beginning of last year when it came to

0:42:37.080 --> 0:42:40.640
<v Speaker 9>the regional bank issues that we had, and my expectation

0:42:40.840 --> 0:42:43.200
<v Speaker 9>is that there will be volatility into the second half

0:42:43.200 --> 0:42:45.120
<v Speaker 9>of the year. What we've really seen so far this

0:42:45.239 --> 0:42:49.160
<v Speaker 9>year is you know, a very robust issuance calendar, especially

0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:52.319
<v Speaker 9>on the debt side, and the speculation is a lot

0:42:52.320 --> 0:42:54.279
<v Speaker 9>of that is just stuff being pulled forward because as

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:56.680
<v Speaker 9>you get closer and closer to the election, the uncertainty

0:42:56.680 --> 0:43:01.480
<v Speaker 9>around that certainly will cause market volatility, but also causes uncertainty,

0:43:01.600 --> 0:43:04.279
<v Speaker 9>so you know, corporates want to get their funding out

0:43:04.320 --> 0:43:05.920
<v Speaker 9>of the way now and try to roll all that

0:43:06.000 --> 0:43:07.640
<v Speaker 9>forward at least that's the expectation.

0:43:07.840 --> 0:43:11.440
<v Speaker 2>But a sign of a healthy market that they're doing

0:43:11.480 --> 0:43:12.600
<v Speaker 2>that and being able to do that.

0:43:12.840 --> 0:43:15.759
<v Speaker 9>Yes, Oh, it's very healthy. I mean, you know, yeah,

0:43:16.280 --> 0:43:18.480
<v Speaker 9>And part of it is, you know, companies that are

0:43:18.480 --> 0:43:21.200
<v Speaker 9>coming right now right certainly you know are in are

0:43:21.239 --> 0:43:24.799
<v Speaker 9>in a you know, pretty stable you know cash flow standpoint, right,

0:43:24.840 --> 0:43:26.799
<v Speaker 9>but for the most part, you know, thing deals are

0:43:26.800 --> 0:43:27.239
<v Speaker 9>getting done.

0:43:27.440 --> 0:43:28.759
<v Speaker 2>What do you make Michael though of the M and

0:43:28.760 --> 0:43:31.440
<v Speaker 2>A environment A five point two trillion in twenty twenty

0:43:31.440 --> 0:43:36.399
<v Speaker 2>one that was the peak? Is that the outlier or

0:43:36.480 --> 0:43:37.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, how do you see it right now?

0:43:38.040 --> 0:43:40.279
<v Speaker 9>I think, well, it's it's super positive. There's a lot

0:43:40.280 --> 0:43:43.040
<v Speaker 9>of conversations happening from what we're hearing. Yeah, I think

0:43:43.080 --> 0:43:45.440
<v Speaker 9>there is a little bit of uncertainy from a regulatory standpoint.

0:43:45.480 --> 0:43:47.400
<v Speaker 9>There spend some deals that have been kind of you know,

0:43:47.480 --> 0:43:49.799
<v Speaker 9>having gone so well based on that. But I think

0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:51.440
<v Speaker 9>there's a lot of optimism around M and A.

0:43:51.600 --> 0:43:53.480
<v Speaker 2>I do is it mostly because of what's coming out

0:43:53.480 --> 0:43:55.360
<v Speaker 2>of private equity in terms of needing to either do

0:43:55.440 --> 0:43:57.399
<v Speaker 2>some exits but also having a lot of cash till

0:43:57.440 --> 0:43:57.920
<v Speaker 2>to put to work.

0:43:58.000 --> 0:44:00.359
<v Speaker 9>Yes, absolutely, there is a ton of cash, just.

0:44:00.320 --> 0:44:02.440
<v Speaker 4>The private equity part that maybe is fueling.

0:44:02.400 --> 0:44:05.040
<v Speaker 9>I think, I think that's part of what's keeping things moving.

0:44:05.080 --> 0:44:08.080
<v Speaker 9>But it's not just private equity, right, It's it's companies

0:44:08.080 --> 0:44:10.560
<v Speaker 9>that have you know, strong cash positions that want to

0:44:10.560 --> 0:44:11.400
<v Speaker 9>increase their business.

0:44:11.600 --> 0:44:13.440
<v Speaker 2>What's the biggest risk, what's the biggest thing that when

0:44:13.440 --> 0:44:15.239
<v Speaker 2>you guys look at the outlook here, because I do

0:44:15.280 --> 0:44:18.280
<v Speaker 2>feel like depending on the day, depending on what either

0:44:18.440 --> 0:44:21.319
<v Speaker 2>FED speak or an economic data point or that for

0:44:21.360 --> 0:44:22.480
<v Speaker 2>the most part, is.

0:44:22.400 --> 0:44:24.400
<v Speaker 4>What kind of makes you know, we see some movement

0:44:24.400 --> 0:44:24.960
<v Speaker 4>in the markets.

0:44:25.320 --> 0:44:27.600
<v Speaker 9>Look, that's that's what's causing the market to move. And

0:44:27.640 --> 0:44:29.440
<v Speaker 9>everybody is you know, you know, tied to the edge

0:44:29.440 --> 0:44:31.200
<v Speaker 9>of their seat when it comes to things like CPI

0:44:31.280 --> 0:44:33.480
<v Speaker 9>and data as it comes out, trying to speculate on

0:44:33.520 --> 0:44:36.279
<v Speaker 9>the FED. But I mean it's pretty well telegraphed, right,

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 9>like we know months ahead of time, or we we

0:44:38.239 --> 0:44:40.520
<v Speaker 9>think we'll know months ahead of time when things are

0:44:40.520 --> 0:44:42.200
<v Speaker 9>going to happen. I think the biggest risk is and

0:44:42.239 --> 0:44:44.880
<v Speaker 9>I mean we saw it, you know, happen, although the

0:44:44.880 --> 0:44:47.240
<v Speaker 9>market didn't really react the way I would have expected

0:44:47.239 --> 0:44:49.600
<v Speaker 9>them to act. But geopolitics has been a big issue

0:44:49.680 --> 0:44:51.879
<v Speaker 9>and it's quiet down a lot. That doesn't mean it's

0:44:51.880 --> 0:44:54.400
<v Speaker 9>going to stay quiet. I think my personal opinion is

0:44:54.440 --> 0:44:56.800
<v Speaker 9>that's the biggest risk is something that we're not expecting

0:44:57.000 --> 0:45:00.600
<v Speaker 9>from a geopolitical standpoint and starts to you know, change

0:45:00.640 --> 0:45:01.720
<v Speaker 9>the environment out there.

0:45:01.560 --> 0:45:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Which is pretty remarkable if you think of the last

0:45:03.200 --> 0:45:06.160
<v Speaker 2>two years, right, that has certainly hit us hard, and

0:45:06.200 --> 0:45:08.799
<v Speaker 2>we're not done yet in terms of those two specific events,

0:45:08.840 --> 0:45:10.440
<v Speaker 2>whether it Ukraine and Russia or what's going on in

0:45:10.480 --> 0:45:13.320
<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. You guys are here at Bloomberg Headquarters

0:45:13.400 --> 0:45:17.040
<v Speaker 2>doing this military appreciation event. I've had a great conversation

0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:19.960
<v Speaker 2>with John Weiss of Wells Fargo about it. But when

0:45:20.000 --> 0:45:24.000
<v Speaker 2>you think about veterans and the things that they need

0:45:24.080 --> 0:45:26.880
<v Speaker 2>and the importance of making, you know, providing for them,

0:45:26.880 --> 0:45:29.440
<v Speaker 2>whether it's mental health, whether it's needing a home, I mean,

0:45:29.440 --> 0:45:31.480
<v Speaker 2>how do you think about it and what's so important

0:45:31.480 --> 0:45:31.719
<v Speaker 2>about it?

0:45:31.840 --> 0:45:32.040
<v Speaker 8>Yeah?

0:45:32.040 --> 0:45:34.680
<v Speaker 9>Look, I think I think when you really dig into it,

0:45:34.800 --> 0:45:37.239
<v Speaker 9>veterans right have spent a period of time, a significant

0:45:37.280 --> 0:45:40.279
<v Speaker 9>period of their time right basically serving their country right.

0:45:40.280 --> 0:45:42.600
<v Speaker 9>And it's not just the veterans, it's veterans families. Right.

0:45:42.880 --> 0:45:44.560
<v Speaker 9>I tell people all the time, my wife actually had

0:45:44.600 --> 0:45:47.280
<v Speaker 9>the hard job, right because I was on a nuclear submarine.

0:45:47.280 --> 0:45:49.200
<v Speaker 9>My wife had a one and a half year old

0:45:49.239 --> 0:45:50.640
<v Speaker 9>and a six month old when I went on a

0:45:50.680 --> 0:45:53.920
<v Speaker 9>six month deployment, right. So you know, so it's transitioning

0:45:53.920 --> 0:45:56.000
<v Speaker 9>out of the military, not just for veterans, but for

0:45:56.080 --> 0:45:58.640
<v Speaker 9>veteran families, right, and making sure that we support them

0:45:58.640 --> 0:46:02.120
<v Speaker 9>because it's difficult. And you know, the military is really

0:46:02.160 --> 0:46:05.439
<v Speaker 9>good at some things transitioning people out. Once they're off

0:46:05.480 --> 0:46:08.680
<v Speaker 9>the government payroll, they kind of become not really the

0:46:08.680 --> 0:46:11.719
<v Speaker 9>government's responsibility anymore. Right, So it's really up to us

0:46:11.760 --> 0:46:13.960
<v Speaker 9>to kind of pick that up, right, whether it's you know,

0:46:14.040 --> 0:46:17.600
<v Speaker 9>foundations and charitable contributions, et cetera, et cetera. That's great, right,

0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:19.920
<v Speaker 9>And you know, I think and Wells part of specifically

0:46:19.920 --> 0:46:21.879
<v Speaker 9>does a lot of that, right, But for me, it's

0:46:21.920 --> 0:46:25.600
<v Speaker 9>actually more important around the employment and the education process,

0:46:25.680 --> 0:46:27.799
<v Speaker 9>so that you know, you can take veterans who are

0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:30.160
<v Speaker 9>very proud people in general, right, you get them and

0:46:30.239 --> 0:46:33.399
<v Speaker 9>you teach them the ability to actually you know, get

0:46:33.440 --> 0:46:36.080
<v Speaker 9>a job, work and support their family, et cetera, et cetera.

0:46:36.160 --> 0:46:38.200
<v Speaker 9>You know at at a high level, and I think

0:46:38.360 --> 0:46:39.799
<v Speaker 9>I think we've come a long way in the last

0:46:39.800 --> 0:46:41.120
<v Speaker 9>twenty years, but we still have a lot of work

0:46:41.160 --> 0:46:41.359
<v Speaker 9>to do.

0:46:41.680 --> 0:46:42.080
<v Speaker 4>Agreed.

0:46:42.239 --> 0:46:44.200
<v Speaker 2>Agreed, And it was interesting what you said about families.

0:46:44.200 --> 0:46:45.719
<v Speaker 2>I've seen a lot of things too about whether it's

0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:48.719
<v Speaker 2>PTSD and the impact. It's not only the soldier who

0:46:48.760 --> 0:46:51.279
<v Speaker 2>was overseas, but it's also their families who have to

0:46:51.320 --> 0:46:54.200
<v Speaker 2>live with it. Michael, thank you so much and thanks

0:46:54.200 --> 0:46:56.399
<v Speaker 2>for sharing with our audience. Michael Riley, he's co head

0:46:56.440 --> 0:46:59.000
<v Speaker 2>of markets at Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Bank. Joining

0:46:59.080 --> 0:47:01.600
<v Speaker 2>us here in studio, you are listening and watching Bloomberg

0:47:01.600 --> 0:47:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Business Week.

0:47:03.480 --> 0:47:08.120
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