WEBVTT - White House Senior Counselor for Trade & Manufacturing Peter Navarro

0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:02.679
<v Speaker 1>We begin this evening with the President's latest tariff threats

0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:04.600
<v Speaker 1>and joining us live for more. Right here in our

0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:08.119
<v Speaker 1>Washington Bureau is Peter Navarro, White House, Senior Counselor for

0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Trade and Manufacturing. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Peter,

0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:12.520
<v Speaker 1>It's good to see.

0:00:12.320 --> 0:00:14.160
<v Speaker 2>You, al it was great to be with you and Jel.

0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:17.080
<v Speaker 1>When we consider the remarks the President made to NBC

0:00:17.320 --> 0:00:20.239
<v Speaker 1>yesterday suggesting most of our trading partners could see a

0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.840
<v Speaker 1>tariff rate of between fifteen and twenty percent being implemented,

0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:26.680
<v Speaker 1>was that the President just riffing or should we expect

0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.240
<v Speaker 1>that the baseline ten percent rate currently in place is

0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:31.160
<v Speaker 1>going to go higher.

0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:35.800
<v Speaker 3>The baseline way to think about this is to look

0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:39.120
<v Speaker 3>at the original levels of reciprocal terroriffs and the letters

0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:44.199
<v Speaker 3>that have just gone out where the President has lifted

0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.320
<v Speaker 3>the terroriffs from the ten percent to a higher rate.

0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:52.800
<v Speaker 3>Roughly track what the reciprocal rates were originally.

0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.800
<v Speaker 2>Some are a little lower, some are a little higher.

0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.480
<v Speaker 3>But the problem, Kayley, that this country faces, and it

0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:04.759
<v Speaker 3>is an urgent national emergency, is we run this massive

0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:10.040
<v Speaker 3>trade deficit. Every year concumulatly has been like eighteen trillion

0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:14.600
<v Speaker 3>dollars of deficits over the last several decades, and that

0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:17.680
<v Speaker 3>represents a transfer of our wealth abroad. It represents the

0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:22.600
<v Speaker 3>transfer of our factories and our jobs. So the process

0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:26.080
<v Speaker 3>now for investors, I think is working quite well. People

0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:29.119
<v Speaker 3>talk a lot about one certainty, this kind of thing

0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.680
<v Speaker 3>like that. I think it's pretty clear where we're going.

0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:36.440
<v Speaker 3>It's an ongoing negotiation. We've had every major country in

0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.039
<v Speaker 3>the world and a lot of smaller ones come to us,

0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.080
<v Speaker 3>and they're fully engaged in negotiations.

0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:45.199
<v Speaker 2>We're getting to a place.

0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:49.920
<v Speaker 3>But what we're learning is that the more a country

0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:54.000
<v Speaker 3>takes advantage of us, the less willing they are to.

0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:55.640
<v Speaker 2>Give up the good thing they got going.

0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.880
<v Speaker 3>So that's the tension, but the president is not going

0:01:58.920 --> 0:01:59.680
<v Speaker 3>to tolerate that.

0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:01.520
<v Speaker 2>That's where we're at.

0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:06.040
<v Speaker 3>I would say that for the American people, these tariffs

0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:10.240
<v Speaker 3>are a great boon that brought A chart here shows

0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:14.639
<v Speaker 3>that we've already collected like one hundred billion dollars of terroriffs.

0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.680
<v Speaker 2>A record for US loan single fiscal Yeah.

0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.960
<v Speaker 3>And one of the things that really bothers me is

0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:25.000
<v Speaker 3>that we're up to eighteen billion now or so with

0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:29.440
<v Speaker 3>China alone on the fentanyl terrafs and so they're willing

0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:32.239
<v Speaker 3>to give US eighteen billion dollars in terraffs and they

0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:36.440
<v Speaker 3>still won't do what they promised back in twenty nineteen

0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.320
<v Speaker 3>directly from the President of China, which is to stop

0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:43.119
<v Speaker 3>killing Americans. So the terrorsts are working, and they were

0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.320
<v Speaker 3>these kind of revenues that we're getting. It's a very

0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.440
<v Speaker 3>important part of the big beautiful Bill in terms of

0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:55.320
<v Speaker 3>financing that as well. So we've got an external revenue

0:02:55.360 --> 0:03:00.560
<v Speaker 3>service that's going to augment the internal revenue service. And

0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:05.560
<v Speaker 3>we're moving for a structural reset of the international trading environment,

0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:09.000
<v Speaker 3>which by any measure is skewed against US.

0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:10.960
<v Speaker 4>And when you talk about killing Americans, they're a freeing

0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.320
<v Speaker 4>of fentanyl here, right, I'm a free off because you

0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:17.280
<v Speaker 4>spoke passionately about fentanyl, the scorge of fentanyl last time

0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.960
<v Speaker 4>you joined US, specific to Canada and Mexico.

0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:21.560
<v Speaker 2>At that point, and also China.

0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:23.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but with Canada now with a thirty five percent

0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.720
<v Speaker 4>traff threat, I'm just wondering, as a point of clarification,

0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:28.880
<v Speaker 4>so I can see what you're pursuing here, and you've

0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:31.280
<v Speaker 4>you've made the case for this, does that come with

0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.960
<v Speaker 4>the USMC a carve out. Would that be extended to

0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:35.839
<v Speaker 4>Mexico as well?

0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.840
<v Speaker 3>The thirty five percent terriff is not on USMC, I

0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:40.160
<v Speaker 3>got it.

0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I'm going to.

0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Talk candidly about Canada.

0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:47.520
<v Speaker 2>I think going back.

0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:51.840
<v Speaker 3>To again President Trump's first term, I remember in the

0:03:52.000 --> 0:04:00.320
<v Speaker 3>very first days of the administration, Bob Liteheiser, Wilbur Ross, self,

0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:05.400
<v Speaker 3>Negotia were negotiating directly with the Canadians, many of whom

0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:09.560
<v Speaker 3>are still in charge of their trade policy. And we

0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:14.720
<v Speaker 3>were negotiation with both the Mexicans and the Canadians. And

0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.320
<v Speaker 3>the Mexicans were pure joy to deal with. You know,

0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:22.240
<v Speaker 3>they were tough negotiators, but they were reasonable, fair negotiators.

0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.520
<v Speaker 3>The Canadians were very, very difficult, and they've always been

0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:30.599
<v Speaker 3>very difficult. And I think what the Canadian leadership needs

0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.000
<v Speaker 3>to understand, as opposed to the Canadian people.

0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:34.839
<v Speaker 2>Which we love, is that this.

0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:41.280
<v Speaker 3>Waving this big batter retaliation at the United States of America.

0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:45.159
<v Speaker 3>I mean, no, they shouldn't be doing that kind of thing.

0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:49.479
<v Speaker 3>They just don't have the weight in terms of any

0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:51.520
<v Speaker 3>advantage they might have at US.

0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:53.120
<v Speaker 2>So I would just.

0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:57.360
<v Speaker 3>Urge Canada to the Canadian citizens to urge their leaders

0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:02.360
<v Speaker 3>to negotiate fairly with us, because look, every country that

0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.159
<v Speaker 3>we're negotiating with, it's just a fact they have higher

0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.760
<v Speaker 3>tariffs than we do, they have bigger non tariff barriers,

0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:13.240
<v Speaker 3>and we run these massive trade deficits with many of them.

0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.239
<v Speaker 3>How does that happen if trade's fair?

0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:16.760
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't.

0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.960
<v Speaker 3>So that's all we're President Trump, going back to the eighties,

0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.160
<v Speaker 3>has promised to correct this well.

0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:25.720
<v Speaker 1>And of course it's not just about country by country,

0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.800
<v Speaker 1>it's also sector by sector. The President suggested this week

0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.520
<v Speaker 1>that we could see a two hundred percent tariff on pharmaceuticals,

0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.239
<v Speaker 1>for example, but that could be on a longer time horizon,

0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.920
<v Speaker 1>a year plus out, to allow supply chains time to

0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:39.800
<v Speaker 1>reorient themselves toward the United States. Could we see a

0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:42.840
<v Speaker 1>similar delay in other sectors that they're Section two thirty

0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.560
<v Speaker 1>two investigations into, like semiconductors, for example.

0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.200
<v Speaker 3>Well, let's talk about the Section two thirty two, because

0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.120
<v Speaker 3>there's a number of different ways that the President has.

0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:53.680
<v Speaker 2>A legal authority to raise tariffs.

0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:58.320
<v Speaker 3>Section thirty two to thirty two basically goes on the

0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:05.839
<v Speaker 3>presumption that ifs are basically putting American capacity out of

0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:09.279
<v Speaker 3>business in a way which harms the United States, he has.

0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:10.800
<v Speaker 2>The right to offset that.

0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:15.640
<v Speaker 3>So whether it's steel and aluminum, or whether it's copper

0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:18.600
<v Speaker 3>where we just made an major announcement on that, or

0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:22.320
<v Speaker 3>whether it's pharmaceuticals, the endgame for the two point thirty

0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:27.960
<v Speaker 3>two terriffs is to strengthen our defense industrial base or

0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.679
<v Speaker 3>manufacturing base, and in the case of pharmaceuticals, our health

0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:37.479
<v Speaker 3>industrial base. Again, as a veteran of the first Trump term,

0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 3>I was the guy, the Defense Production Act policy coordinator

0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.839
<v Speaker 3>who was in charge of getting all the medicines and

0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.200
<v Speaker 3>the PPE and getting the vaccine thing jump started.

0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.679
<v Speaker 2>And all of that, and we learned some very harsh

0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:53.520
<v Speaker 2>lessons there.

0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:58.080
<v Speaker 3>Certainly, there was just incredible rhetoric from China at one

0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.280
<v Speaker 3>point where they were going to drown us in a

0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:04.440
<v Speaker 3>sea of virus and withhold things from us if we

0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.920
<v Speaker 3>dared say that the virus from was from the Wuhan lab.

0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:11.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, that's out there, just go go look at dad.

0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:16.200
<v Speaker 3>But it was also true that every one of our allies,

0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.560
<v Speaker 3>when push came to show, they weren't with us.

0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:21.680
<v Speaker 2>So it was every nation on their own.

0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:27.080
<v Speaker 3>So we learned pharmaceuticals are particularly critical to have on

0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.760
<v Speaker 3>shore for national security purposes.

0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:32.040
<v Speaker 4>I want to get to J. Powell with you, and

0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:33.640
<v Speaker 4>I'm going to try to show it this way because

0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.800
<v Speaker 4>I heard you talking recently about the Big beautiful bill

0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:38.000
<v Speaker 4>that the President just signed.

0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:38.680
<v Speaker 2>It's a law.

0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.880
<v Speaker 4>There have been questions about whether it adds to deficit

0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.040
<v Speaker 4>and debt, and you have said just the opposite, that

0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:47.440
<v Speaker 4>combined with tariff revenues, you will turn two to three

0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:50.000
<v Speaker 4>trillion dollars in deficit spending to a two to three

0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.280
<v Speaker 4>trillion dollars surplus. That would be a big deal. Can

0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.440
<v Speaker 4>you do that? How cutting interest rates?

0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:00.320
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's yeah, we could do it with out J.

0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:04.239
<v Speaker 3>Pollo cutting interest rates because the numbers are so swhelming. Okay,

0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.480
<v Speaker 3>because he's looking. But how I mean, let's not conflate

0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:10.360
<v Speaker 3>those two. Let me let me talk first about the

0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:11.320
<v Speaker 3>Big Beautiful Bill.

0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.960
<v Speaker 2>Economics. It's it's fairly straightforward.

0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.760
<v Speaker 3>The way it works is there's this thing called the

0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.960
<v Speaker 3>Congressional Budget Office. We talk about it a lot when Yeah,

0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.480
<v Speaker 3>I'm when you when you do a bill like that.

0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:27.760
<v Speaker 3>It's the CBO that does the official forecast dynamic and

0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:32.960
<v Speaker 3>historically they've just been far more wrong than right, dating

0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.320
<v Speaker 3>back to the first first term, and so all you

0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:39.199
<v Speaker 3>got to know about the CBO forecast this time around

0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.640
<v Speaker 3>is that it assumes a one point eight rate of

0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:47.760
<v Speaker 3>economic growth, which we think is way too low. And

0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.720
<v Speaker 3>from that one point eight, and they don't put in

0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:54.480
<v Speaker 3>any dynamic effects to speak of. And when they try

0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.559
<v Speaker 3>to do that, they screwed that up to whatever. They

0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:01.280
<v Speaker 3>came up with a two to three trillion increase in

0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:03.920
<v Speaker 3>the debt. Okay, it's like, no, wait a minute, here's

0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:04.800
<v Speaker 3>what you're not doing.

0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:05.679
<v Speaker 2>Two things.

0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:08.800
<v Speaker 3>One is that if you simply increase the growth rate

0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:13.880
<v Speaker 3>by one percent, like we did in the first term,

0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:17.280
<v Speaker 3>CBO got it wrong. Same way in the first term,

0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:19.840
<v Speaker 3>you raise a couple of trillion dollars of that, so

0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:21.520
<v Speaker 3>you get almost to zero.

0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:23.480
<v Speaker 2>Okay, you get the neutrality.

0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:29.240
<v Speaker 3>They didn't count the tariff revenues, and that's like, that's are.

0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Executive branch, not from Congress. They can't technically.

0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:34.160
<v Speaker 3>Oh, but but they should have counted it because it

0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:35.720
<v Speaker 3>counts towards the debt.

0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:36.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look at look at it.

0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:39.679
<v Speaker 3>One hundred billion dollars in I don't know the first

0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:43.720
<v Speaker 3>six months, we're gonna we're gonna have a situation where

0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.040
<v Speaker 3>if you simply do the numbers right for the big

0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:50.240
<v Speaker 3>beautiful bill. It's this significant reduction in the debt and

0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.760
<v Speaker 3>what that'll do, if you want to segue to J. Powell,

0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:58.280
<v Speaker 3>what that'll do is it'll actually lower yields and interest

0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:01.160
<v Speaker 3>rates because we'll have to finance less. Now, with respect

0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:04.200
<v Speaker 3>to Powell, I think there's a strong argument that can

0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.679
<v Speaker 3>be made that he's at least fifty basis points above

0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:09.520
<v Speaker 3>where he should be, and we should be in a

0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.199
<v Speaker 3>place where we should be fifty basis points lower now

0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:17.520
<v Speaker 3>moving towards even lower. And let's just deconstruct what fifty

0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.120
<v Speaker 3>basis points too high means.

0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.160
<v Speaker 2>That's about a quarter to a half point of.

0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:29.080
<v Speaker 3>GDP growth reduction, and that in turn means about five

0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:32.280
<v Speaker 3>hundred thousand to seven hundred and fifty thousand fewer jobs

0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:34.800
<v Speaker 3>that will create because of J.

0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:35.480
<v Speaker 4>Powell.

0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.560
<v Speaker 3>It's a couple one hundred billion dollars in lost output,

0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:42.520
<v Speaker 3>and there's billions lost in tax revenues. Then when you

0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:46.600
<v Speaker 3>go from there, and I was watching Laloe, I'm sure

0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:51.160
<v Speaker 3>you have Lalo brainers. I saw her on an other

0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:55.480
<v Speaker 3>network yesterday and she has no clue. It's like she

0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.959
<v Speaker 3>was talking about the Big beautiful Bill and Powell and

0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:04.320
<v Speaker 3>all this stuff. Twenty to thirty percent of our debt.

0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.520
<v Speaker 2>Is financed by short term debt. That's the way they

0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:07.040
<v Speaker 2>roll that.

0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.000
<v Speaker 3>So if you look at a half point more on

0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.960
<v Speaker 3>the short term debt, that's a couple hundred billion dollars

0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.240
<v Speaker 3>that you build into the debt over ten years. That's

0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:20.760
<v Speaker 3>real money. Mortgage rates average family four hundred thousand dollars

0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.600
<v Speaker 3>thirty year mortgage. That's one thousand over one thousand dollars

0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.200
<v Speaker 3>a year. And then we got this last point a

0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:30.319
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars of revolving credit card debt. That's about five

0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.520
<v Speaker 3>billion dollars more that consumers pay.

0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:37.680
<v Speaker 2>So and so this idea of.

0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.840
<v Speaker 3>What's wrong with waiting, I'll tell you what's wrong with

0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.120
<v Speaker 3>waiting all those costs and what's wrong with lowering them now.

0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:45.760
<v Speaker 2>And if you get it wrong and.

0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:48.200
<v Speaker 3>Place heats up, just put it in reverse. We used

0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:53.640
<v Speaker 3>to do that. Fesciolicy used to be uncertain by design

0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 3>to keep the bond market and everybody else with discipline.

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:00.480
<v Speaker 3>We got this like weird concept now where we got

0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:03.120
<v Speaker 3>to telegraph a year in advance what that is.

0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 2>And it doesn't.

0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.640
<v Speaker 1>Work with the bond market. It's not so much the

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.360
<v Speaker 1>FED funds rate. It's the bond market that dictates things

0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.320
<v Speaker 1>like mortgage rates and overall borrowing costs. Is there a

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.760
<v Speaker 1>risk that public pressure on the FED chairman when he

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 1>does cut then creates a credibility problem for the Fed?

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:20.680
<v Speaker 1>The bond market no longer trust the Fed, and you

0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 1>still run into these same problems.

0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:23.320
<v Speaker 2>I don't hire rate.

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:26.680
<v Speaker 3>I don't think there's any risk at all of that.

0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.480
<v Speaker 3>I think the bond market. Frankly, thanks, Jerome Pile is

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.760
<v Speaker 3>a clown at this point because of what he did,

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:36.079
<v Speaker 3>and I can go over the three major mistakes he makes,

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:38.680
<v Speaker 3>but the bond market will do what the bond market does.

0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:42.679
<v Speaker 3>Seeing the data, and when you see ten year yields

0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:47.199
<v Speaker 3>going down significantly like they have been doing, that should

0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.719
<v Speaker 3>tell Jerome Powell that the short run rates should be

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 3>coming down significantly and that's not happening.

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 2>And let me just on the pole thing. Let's be clear.

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:00.240
<v Speaker 3>It's like this op ed I had in the Hill.

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 3>UH basically looked at all of the FED chairman we've

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 3>had over the last I don't know forty years and

0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 3>ranked them who is good to the worst.

0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 2>And there's an argument that he was the worst.

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.640
<v Speaker 3>And if you look at like Arthur Burns seventy two,

0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:20.000
<v Speaker 3>helps Nixon get reelected, sets off the stagflation. Ge William

0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 3>Miller is in the middle of that mix, sits on

0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 3>his hands. He was the other lawyer in the mix

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:29.880
<v Speaker 3>besides Powell, totally unqualified.

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.080
<v Speaker 4>He went through green Span brand green Span.

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 3>Getting not understanding how the dot com was going to

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.200
<v Speaker 3>bring productivity and allow you to go forward out inflation.

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:45.640
<v Speaker 3>But Berne But but Powell has made three major blunders.

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 2>In first term he raised rates too fast. He was

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 2>like too early.

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 3>Powell, and that's been documented by the Fed itself.

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 2>He made a mistake. And the second term this is

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.320
<v Speaker 2>what and you you, you folks were right here on

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 2>this set.

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:05.440
<v Speaker 3>Now, I wonder why you might not have been asking

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 3>about Jay Powell. Hey, Jay, are you going to say

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:12.320
<v Speaker 3>anything about all these bills they're passing contributed to inflation?

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 2>Jay, why do you await.

0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 1>The ralitary policy? Not fiscal policy?

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:17.439
<v Speaker 2>No?

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 3>No, but no, Actually, I'll give you my favorite FED

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:26.080
<v Speaker 3>chair besides Paul Volker, William McChesney Martin. Most famous quote

0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 3>in FED history is job of the FED chair is

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 3>to take the punch bowl away before the party gets

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 3>too good, right, and what but McChesney Martin did, which

0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:39.800
<v Speaker 3>was so profound. When Lyndon Johnson was prosecuting the Vietnam

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:44.520
<v Speaker 3>War and refusing to trade off guns for butter Chesney

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:49.640
<v Speaker 3>but chesse, Martin started raising race and LBJ demarched him

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 3>down to his ranch and tried to read him the

0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 3>Riot Act, and Martin said.

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 2>No, you're, you're. You got to choose one or the other.

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 3>And so Powell should have said a lot during that time.

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 2>He didn't, and one of the reasons was.

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 3>He wanted to be reappointed to the fat He's a

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 3>political animal.

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 2>Let's be clear about that.

0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 4>They're wrapping me. This is the longest interview we've ever

0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:12.280
<v Speaker 4>done on the show. I want you to know Peter

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 4>Navara right here, that's absolutely here for Kayley. Do you

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.040
<v Speaker 4>want to fire Philip Swiegel or J Powell before we go?

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't fire anybody.

0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 3>I just I just will be like them back here

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 3>and I just love coming to your studios.

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 4>Well, let's keep this conversation going.

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 3>Appreciate it, and we'll have another baby on the planet.

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 2>When I come back.

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 4>Congratulate absolutely, White House Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing,

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.000
<v Speaker 4>Peter Navarro. We thank you so much for being with

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 4>us on Bloomberg