1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into BP NFL. It's the week 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: ten Early Lines and Pigs episode. I'm your host, Seth 3 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: Wilcock fill in for Joe Piece of Pia, who is 4 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: once again away on vacation because, let's face it, folks, 5 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: Uncle Joey getting up there in age a little bit 6 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: and like all snowbirds, needs to hit the reset button 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: every once in a while down in the Florida Sunshine. 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: And of course I'm joined by one of the other 9 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: young millennials on the VP staff. He's a new Englander 10 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 1: who lives by Bill Belichick's mantra no days off. He's 11 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 1: Andrew Rickson ericson How are you today? And how did 12 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: Week nine treat you? 13 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 2: Week nine was a positive week for the most part. 14 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: I think that I'll probably end up finishing three and two, 15 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: and the props the best bets hit one of my 16 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: touchdown bets, so I cannot complain. Yeah. 17 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: I had someone at a church luncheon yesterday asked me, Hey, 18 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 1: do you think the Steelers is gonna win? And I said, look, man, 19 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 1: the Colets, their run game is so good. If they 20 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: can stop them, they can. But I said, this is 21 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: the perfect spot for Mike Tomlin to show off just 22 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: because you lose, you get your butt kicked at home, 23 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: and then here comes a good team and you play 24 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: up to your opponent because that's what we do here 25 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: in Steelers Country. Kind of frustrate myself a little bit 26 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: on the betting side, ericson four for five of my 27 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: player props, one for two on the anytime TD. So 28 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: happy about that. But Jamar Chase dropped a bunch of 29 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: touchdowns that could have potentially cashed that bet, and I 30 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: was a Rashie Rice over away from being perfect on 31 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: the week. Also would have hit the parlay of the week, 32 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: and I had it a plus one eighteen six and 33 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: a half receptions, three units down and that that just 34 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: killed me because he didn't come anywhere close to that. 35 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: I couldn't believe. That felt like the lack of the week. 36 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bills decided to cover Rushy Rice in the 37 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 2: second half. Yeah, which again, kudos to them, right, I'm 38 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 2: giving you out kudos left and right here on today's program, 39 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: because Hey, some teams, some analysts deserve their flowers after 40 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: great performances. The Buffalo team toe that was one of 41 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: the bets I did hit. Again, I was not gonna 42 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 2: sweat the side. I was like, well, the Bills are 43 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: going to score at least twenty eight points here, because 44 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: that's what you have to do when you face the 45 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: Kancity Chiefs. So they were pedaled to the metal, a 46 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: lot of fourth down attempts again even convert all of them. 47 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: But he knew that teams going in we're going to 48 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: have an aggressive mindset. So that was one of my 49 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: better bets from week nine. 50 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad to hear that. Of course, today's program 51 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: does look like this. We'll give you early handicap of 52 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: all fourteen games on the upcoming slate and any early 53 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: picks that Ericson or myself are laying down. As always, 54 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: shout to everyone who's hanging out with us either on 55 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 1: the Bank Pro's YouTube channel or the audio feed these 56 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: these freeway sport us. It's always giving this video a 57 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. And 58 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: also make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new, 59 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: so you don't miss a moment of NFL and CFB 60 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 1: betting coverage this fall. And let's start on Thursday night 61 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: where the two and six Las Vegas Raiders are nine 62 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: and a half two ten and a half point road 63 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: dogs against the seven and two Denver Broncos. Pete Carroll's 64 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: team right now three and five ATS. They're coming off 65 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: a cover but a near overtime loss against the Jaguars 66 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: where they went for two to try to win it 67 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: all Denver four to four and one ATS this season, 68 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: coming off a three point win and cover against the 69 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: Houston Texans, who lost CJ. Stroud early that game. They 70 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: went to and zero against the Raiders a year ago, 71 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: winning by an average of thirteen points. So are you 72 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: expecting anything different this time around? 73 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 2: Ericson this note is way too big for the podcast. 74 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 2: Like we saw what this offense looks like when they 75 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: have brought Bowers right, like they can actually move the football. 76 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: Geno Smith looks like a competent quarterback. We thought after 77 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 2: Week one, man, the Raiders are they low key kind 78 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 2: of good, but Bowers gets banged up and then the 79 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 2: Raiders are terrible every other game. Bowers comes back after 80 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 2: the bye week is an absolute monster and gives the 81 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 2: Raiders a fighting chance a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 82 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 2: So seth, I mean, we've watched off Thursday night games 83 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 2: this year where who has dominated the divisional matchups the 84 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: underdogs almost every single time. Now a lot of them 85 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 2: have been at home, not playing on the road, so 86 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: that is a factor. But you're getting ten points with 87 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 2: a divisional matchup on a Thursday night on a short week, 88 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: I'm taking the dogs, give me the Raiders. 89 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: I totally understand that. The only cavea I would say, 90 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: and I'd ask you about, are you worry that the 91 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: Raiders had to play almost a full extra quarter on 92 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: Sunday and also got to be probably in pretty low 93 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: spirits after losing that heartbreaker. 94 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: I think that that's definitely playing into the lines. I 95 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: would say, Okay, you're getting that factored in, where all 96 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: they're coming up over time, you know, deflating loss in 97 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 2: a big game, whereas the Broncos, I mean, look every 98 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 2: game against the Texans, right, that's a that's a tough matchup, 99 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: right because they have how physical the Texans play defensively. 100 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 2: So we'll see if Patrick Tritan can suit up in 101 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 2: this game. I know it's a short week for Denver, 102 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 2: so we'll see if he comes back after missing last week. 103 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 2: But I just think the value right now just is 104 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: on the divisional underdog here with the Tenets. 105 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: Okay, okay, the NFL says Guten Morgan from Germany on 106 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: Sunday with the seven to two Indianapolis Colts. They're laying six, two, 107 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: six and a half points on the three and five 108 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: A Lanta Falcons Colts, of course, coming off just their 109 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: third game that they failed to cover this season, losing 110 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty in Pittsburgh, a game in which 111 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: they had six turnovers in total. And things are really 112 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: star r to derail pretty quickly for Atlanta right now. 113 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 1: They've dropped three in a row, including that nasty thirty 114 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: four to ten loss to the Dolphins a couple weeks ago. 115 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: They did cover against the Patriots last week, though, so 116 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: ericson where are you headed on this one? 117 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 2: I'm going to buy the bounce back on the Indianapolis 118 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 2: Colts here, Okay. Tend to perform better as favorites. Obviously 119 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 2: it did not work last week, but that was one 120 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: of the reasons why I really liked them last week. 121 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 2: Before the game against the Steelers, Jane Stichen was sixteen 122 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 2: and two straight up as a favorite. And what we 123 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: usually see from these international games is favorite tiers you 124 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: win and cover and usually see the game go towards 125 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 2: the under. So I don't think I'll have a play 126 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 2: on the sides or the excuse me, the total here, 127 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 2: just because you have so much explosive expulsiveness from the 128 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 2: running backs in this game, Jonathan Taylor and John Robinson. 129 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: You know, I bet that I really liked with the 130 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 2: Colts if they had just not totally like been terrible 131 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 2: against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Was Yeah, you could have money 132 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 2: lined or parlayed Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown with the Colts 133 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 2: money line, and you got pretty decent odds for that. 134 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 2: So maybe that's something that would spen here where you 135 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 2: can bring the total or you can bring the spread 136 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: down for the Colts, maybe Colts minus three plus and 137 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown. Again didn't hit last week because 138 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 2: Tiligon's already touchdown, so but if he's if the Colts 139 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 2: win in cover, jonathanso is probably gonna find the end 140 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 2: zone because that's usually the case of the Colts playing 141 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 2: well offensively. So I think that maybe get you a 142 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 2: better value on this line, But for right now, I'll 143 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 2: take the Colts. 144 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of do like the Colts early in 145 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 1: this one before it's going to get above a touchdown. 146 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones want to zero overseas. If you remember a 147 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: couple of years ago, I think it was actually in 148 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: Germany where he beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers with 149 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: the Giants and then at the same time too, like 150 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: Michael Pennocks junior, he's never played overseas, so I don't 151 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 1: know if that changes things up and maybe makes it 152 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:43,679 Speaker 1: I don't know, a little bit bigger of a spot 153 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: for a younger quarterback like that in Michael Pennick. So 154 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: looking forward to that one on Sunday morning in the 155 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: one o'clock slate though the one and eight New Orleans Saints. 156 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 1: They are four and a half to five and a 157 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: half point underdogs to the five and four Carolina Panthers. 158 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: The Panthers have been running it down everyone's throat right 159 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: now with Rico Dawdle, and it's working. They're sitting above 160 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: five hundred straight up six and three ats as well. 161 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: They just beat the Packers and lambeau Field and the Saints. 162 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: They are a league worst two in six ats and 163 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: they have not been able to stop the run as 164 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: of late. With Tyler Schucket quarterback. I think this is 165 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: an easy spot for me to lay the points with 166 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: the Panthers here ericson do you feel differently? And will 167 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: four and happy the best number we're looking at this week? 168 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 2: I think so. I know that Rico o'dowdell was getting 169 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: some medical attention at times during last week's game, So 170 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 2: just want to make sure that Uncle Rico is ready 171 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 2: to go, yeah before before you're betting on anything Carolina 172 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 2: Panthers related. But the trend that you want to attack 173 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 2: here is again, Carolina plays much better at home than 174 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 2: on the road. And you know they give credit to them. 175 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: They showed up last week when the Packers did not, 176 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: and they won outright. As a massive underdog on the road, 177 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: It's not something you usually see what Bryce Young do. 178 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: He's been terrible on the road. But they're at home 179 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 2: and that's where they usually cover us underdogs at a 180 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: really high rate. And you just want to continue to 181 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 2: bet against rookie quarterbacks on the road, right if it's 182 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 2: not a Rockie quarterback facing the Denver Broncos, that bet 183 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: has cashed every single time this year. So Tyler Truck 184 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 2: making his second start, We'll see what the Saints do 185 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 2: we'll see who's left on the Saints, cause I think 186 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 2: that they're going to be trading away some of their 187 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: key pieces before the point peaks trade deadline. Good point. 188 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 2: You may not even see guys like Rashika heat he 189 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 2: might be gone, So you're just losing firepower, you're losing weapons. 190 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 2: I think that affects the team right you have younger 191 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: players playing. But besides that, I think that they might 192 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 2: get worse. Mean if they lose tomorrow. Davis right a linebacker. 193 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 2: If he's not playing, man, you can't set the under 194 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: over at Rico down of rushing yards high enough, so 195 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 2: I will also. I like the Pantas year too well. 196 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 1: And I think that's even more one reason to get 197 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: down on Carolina early, right before those trades happen and 198 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: potentially make the Saints team look even worse, which is 199 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: pretty freaking hard to do. Hopefully, one day our friend 200 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 1: Derek Brown can return to his Saints fandom, but I 201 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be anytime soon. Let's go 202 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: to the Windy City, where the Chicago Bears are three 203 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over the two and seven 204 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: New York Giants. The Bears nearly had a collapse of 205 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: the ages against the Bengals last week, ended up winning 206 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: and covering forty seven to forty two to get to 207 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: five and three ATS. Anyone who's on the Bears last week, 208 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: My goodness, was that a run and it was the 209 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: welcoming party as well for both rookies, Colston Loveland and 210 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: Kyle Manongai. So the boys gotta be buzzing up there 211 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 1: in Chicago, Brian Davis bunch. Meanwhile, they've dropped three in 212 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,719 Speaker 1: a row. They're now four and five ATS, giving up 213 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: thirty plus points in three trade games. So, Erickson, I'm 214 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: not usually a huge fan and taking overs in Chicago 215 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: in November with unpredictable weather potentially there, but is this 216 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,439 Speaker 1: maybe a spot to attack either the totals or team 217 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: totals market? Are you sticking Ats in this one? 218 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that team total for the Bears I 219 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 2: think is pretty intriguing here, and think so too with 220 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 2: the Giants too. I mean, Jackson Dre just continues to 221 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: make magic despite the fact that he just seems to 222 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 2: lose weapons every other week. I do have concerns about 223 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 2: the Giants taking advantage of the Chicago Bears run defense 224 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 2: at least because if it's going to be Devin Singletary 225 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: as the lead guy, I don't know if the upside 226 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 2: is going to be there. Sure again, I have to 227 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: rewatch the Giants game to kind of get an idea 228 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 2: of what the Tyrone Tracy experience was and why they decided, like, hey, 229 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 2: let's use Devin Singletary more than Tyrone Tracy. I wouldn't 230 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 2: do that personally. Maybe it's a trust thing. I know 231 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 2: that Dave Ball has had his issues with try Tyrone Tracy. 232 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: Singletary eat bad man. Singletary ain't bad. 233 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. And coaches really like him as specifically Dayball, 234 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 2: like there's a reason he's on the rosters this guy, 235 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 2: he does like him a lot. And Tracy just seems 236 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: like he frustrates Brian Dable more than anything. But I digress. 237 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: I like the Bears here in the spot. Overall, Caleb 238 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 2: Williams tends to perform better as a favorite than he 239 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 2: does as an underdog. They're playing at home, where he 240 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 2: also tends to play a lot better. I think Ben 241 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 2: Johnson again, we saw it last week against the bad defense. Dude, 242 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 2: he's doing everything he's He's uploaded the entire playbook to 243 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: just show off what he can do offensively and against 244 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: another bad defense that continues to lose defensive playmakers the 245 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 2: week after week. I don't think he's gonna hold back 246 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 2: and trying to score points because he knows that. Hey, 247 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 2: as the head coach, how do I look good? I 248 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 2: put up points for my offense. Don't really care what 249 00:10:57,840 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 2: my defense is because both defenses are bad because they're 250 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 2: all in. So I think I also like the Bears 251 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 2: here in probably game total going over. 252 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: Okay, and today's show is brought to you by or 253 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 1: presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. If you're listening to this podcast, 254 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: you're probably deep in the stats, intry reports, and matchups, 255 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: and on hard rock Bet you can put your fancy 256 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 1: football knowledge to the test. Try your first bet on 257 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: hard rock Bet today. 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Terms and 278 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 3: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight 279 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 3: eight eight admit it In Indiana. If you are somebody 280 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 3: you know as a gambling problem and wants help, call 281 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 3: one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called 282 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 3: one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois. In New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 283 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 1: We've got a couple of big dogs lined up for 284 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: a banger in Tampa Bay, where the six and two 285 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites over the 286 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: AFC East leading New England Patriots. New England. They're coming 287 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: off their six straight win, but they're twenty four to 288 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: twenty three. Win against the Falcons was the first game 289 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: they hadn't covered during that streak. Tampa Bay. They hoped 290 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: to have gotten somewhat healthier over the bye, though of 291 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: course be without Mike Evans for the rest of the season. 292 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: The status is of Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin currently unknown, 293 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 1: and even without those guys though, still five and three Ats, 294 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: winning and covering in three their last four. So ericson, 295 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 1: do you have a play in this one? 296 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 3: Yeah? 297 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 2: I think I like the Pats here on the road. 298 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: I think that when Firham tried to tell everybody last 299 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 2: week that the Falcons were going to cover, and he 300 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 2: was right and they I mean, that was not Drake 301 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 2: May's best game, you know, fumbling some turnover. 302 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: Booty going out hurt him a little bit too. 303 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 2: I would agree with that. So not want to say 304 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 2: the Patriots were going to lose that game against the Falcons, 305 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 2: but they definitely gave it landa a lot of opportunities 306 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 2: to not to stick around and not put them away. 307 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 2: So right again, they were on a streak of four 308 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 2: straight covers. No one goes undefeated against the spread, so 309 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 2: eventually you're going to see another team give it up, 310 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: especially with the line like five and a half. But 311 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 2: now you have Patriots on the road, I think that 312 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 2: you could see them show out here, maybe even upset 313 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a bye week. We 314 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 2: still don't know exactly the health of all the tamp 315 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 2: Bay Buccaneers playmakers are. We're assuming, hey, they'll be all 316 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 2: good to go, So I think maybe right now early 317 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 2: it is to get on the Patriots here early on, 318 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 2: because we may get announcements that, oh yeah, I know 319 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 2: Buckyrving he's not ready to play. It's like, okay, that's 320 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 2: not good. But Chris Scott when he's also not ready 321 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 2: to play, it's like, okay, like that that's not a 322 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 2: good I would say, though, on the Patriots side, their 323 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 2: defense plays so much worse from Christigan Zales is not 324 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 2: on the field. The minute that he gets he's knocked 325 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: out of the game, their defense just starts giving up 326 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: monster yards. Told us in all of Drake London's touchdowns 327 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 2: last week or when he was matched up with non 328 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 2: corners that were named Christian Zales, So the Falcons took 329 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: advantage of that. They went they put Drake London in 330 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 2: position to not match up against Gonzales and that's why 331 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 2: he scored three touchdowns against mismatches Marcus Jones. So still, 332 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: though game total over, I kind of like I like 333 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 2: the Patriots here, assuming that the Buccaneers don't get all 334 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 2: their guys back. And I will say with Tampa Bay, 335 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 2: you want to bet on Baker Mayfield when he's on 336 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 2: the road and an underdog like that's usually where you're 337 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 2: going to get your best return for him. When he's 338 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 2: at home as a favorite, typically not as strong as 339 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 2: results for Baker Midfield. So I know last time we 340 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: saw him, they didn't put up this amazing offensive performance. 341 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 2: Let's not forget they played the same and they played 342 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: kind of an ugly game they obviously end up winning, 343 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 2: and that game was on the road. I think I 344 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 2: do like the Patriots here. 345 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I don't know what was going off with 346 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: Drake Lundon and Christian Goanzalez, but Drake London was I mean, 347 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: he was like mad still when Christian Gonzalez is lying 348 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: on the floor like lifeless for a second, like he 349 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: did not care. I don't know if something was said 350 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: about his mama or these two got a long standing beef, 351 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: but Drake London fired up, man fired up. Always impressive. 352 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: We also had these six and two Buffalo Bills who 353 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: they're coming in and they're traveling south to hope to 354 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: maintain pace here with the Patriots. Right now, they are 355 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine a half point favorites 356 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: over the two and seven Miami Dolphins. Buffalo they beat 357 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: the Dolphins by ten earlier this season, and they're coming 358 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: off a blowout win over the Panthers in a pretty 359 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: dominant win over the Chiefs to get to four and 360 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: five ats Miami. They have a mini bye week they're 361 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: coming off of from that twenty eight to six Thursday 362 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: Night football loss the Ravens. The game, they struggle to 363 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: convert on third downs, hold on to the ball once 364 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: again feels like their entire season under two attack of 365 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: ALOA Andrew, what's your approach to this game and is 366 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: there anything other than James Cook props that you'll be 367 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: down on. 368 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 2: I mean, right now, if you like Buffalo, you probably 369 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 2: bet it right now. I think that's probably the move 370 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: because I think this line's going to move in favor 371 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: of the Buffalo Bills. You're already seeing Miami is starting 372 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 2: to sell off pieces. They just trade Jalen Phillips to 373 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 2: the Philadelphia Eagles, so that's a defensive player gone. The 374 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 2: defense isn't gonna get any better anytime soon. So I 375 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 2: think for me, dude, what I've made the most money 376 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 2: is with the Buffalo Bills is betting the team to 377 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 2: all over every single time and not sweating the spread 378 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 2: because I know that more often not they're going to 379 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 2: score at least thirty points, and I don't then have 380 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 2: to figure out, well if Miami shows up, because sometimes 381 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 2: Miami's offense especial when they play at home, Like sometimes 382 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 2: their offense shows up and sometimes it's decent. Other times 383 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: it doesn't show up at all, and they got blown 384 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 2: out like we saw against Baltimore Ravens. So I do 385 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 2: shy away here from the spread, especially if we get 386 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 2: the double digits. I love to take home underdog as 387 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 2: double digits, especially when they also qualify as closer eye specials, 388 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 2: which the Miami Dolphins do here because they're coming off 389 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 2: a massive blowout loss, especially on a primetime spot. So yeah, 390 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 2: Buffalo right now is probably the best number, even like 391 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: their team total. Like bet that now, just because I 392 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 2: think it's going to move in their direction as we 393 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 2: start to see Dolphins trade off some more assets. 394 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: The three and five Baltimore Ravens are also on a 395 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 1: rest advantage over the four and four Minnesota Vikings, which 396 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 1: is maybe why they're favored by three and a half 397 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,400 Speaker 1: points in this one. The Ravens, of course, they got 398 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: back Lamar Jackson on Thursday Night Football, made pretty quick 399 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: work of the Dolphins to get to three and five 400 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: ats Minnesota. They got back JJ McCarthy at quarterback and 401 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: upset the lines, actually giving them their fourth cover of 402 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: the season. Was still a lot to learn about both 403 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 1: these teams. I'm not really sure who they are with 404 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: the quarterbacks just now coming back. This feels like probably 405 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 1: one of the tougher games for me to handicap on 406 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: this slate. Do you have a read on it, Andrew Rickson. 407 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 2: I don't have a play on the total. I think 408 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 2: that the line's pretty sharp forty six and a half, 409 00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. I like laying the points 410 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: with Baltimore. If looking at hard Rock bet, it looks 411 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 2: like minus three yep. I like the value there. Even 412 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 2: though the Ravens are playing on the road. I've just 413 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 2: seen so much of this boom bust Brian Flores defense 414 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 2: where at times it can just get absolutely shredded by 415 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: posting passers. And Lamar look extra time off this mini 416 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: bye week to make sure that he is back to two 417 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 2: hundred percent. I thought that he looked fine on Thursday 418 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 2: night against ripping of bart the Miami Dolphins. And I 419 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 2: don't know the exact number, but doesn't Lamar just absolutely 420 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 2: own the NFC? Doesn't he just like absolutely shred Yes. 421 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 1: And it's the opponents They don't seem as much, so 422 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: they're just not as prepared for how quick this guy is. 423 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 2: Yeah. So I just think that with extra time to prepare, Yes, 424 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: the Vikings are coming off another or an emotional win. 425 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 2: McCarthy back showing out upset as massive underdogs. I think 426 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 2: maybe the Vikings are getting a little bit too much 427 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 2: love for that particular game versus the Ravens. Who I mean, 428 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 2: I kind of I want to go back to what 429 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 2: I thought they were at the beginning of season, because 430 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: when all their guys are healthy, like, that's what they are. 431 00:18:58,040 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: And I just think that when you look at any 432 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 2: of the advance metrics, it's all kind of skewed because well, 433 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 2: half the team wasn't playing during those weeks. He rush 434 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: play certain games, so the numbers don't really tell the 435 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: story when it's like I look up, I want to 436 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 2: bend Lamar Jackson when he's only favored by a field goal, 437 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 2: that's it. I don't care where this game can be, 438 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: playing on the moon, and I want to bet Lamar 439 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 2: Jackson to win by more than a field goal. So 440 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:18,959 Speaker 2: I like the Ravens. 441 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, I'm seeing that three point line still 442 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: hanging around hard Rock bet our friends over there. But 443 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 1: it was three at a lot of books and it's 444 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: been moving. So if you're want to get getting the 445 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 1: Ravens here at three or less, you're gonna have to 446 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: probably go sooner rather than later. And man, this AFC 447 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 1: North Race is gonna be fun with the Ravens just 448 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: trying to come all the way back and catch up 449 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: with the Steelers. I'm excited to see how it shakes 450 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: out there. We also have the five and three Jacksonville Jaguars, 451 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: who just barely caught out of Las Vegas with the 452 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 1: thirty to twenty nine overtime win against the Raiders. But 453 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: in that game we did have wide receiver Ryan Thomas Junior. 454 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: He got banged up in the process. This just comes 455 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: days after second overall pick Travis Hunter placed on ir 456 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: with that non contact knee injury suffered in practice. They're 457 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 1: now one and a half point underdogs against the Houston 458 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: Texans here that are three and five straight up. They 459 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: did lose to the Broncos eighteen to fifteen last week 460 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: at home, a game where C. J. Stroud knocked out 461 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: with a possible concussion. So, Erickson, we've got a ton 462 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: of unknowns in this one between two teams who have 463 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: just been pretty average against the spread this season. The 464 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: total just sitting at a meager thirty seven and a 465 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: half points. So is there any early line value to 466 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: pounce on or is this just a spot where hey, 467 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: let's wait, get a little more clarity on who's up 468 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 1: and who's down. 469 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 2: I mean, I think if you like the sides, you 470 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 2: probably trant to bet Jacksonville because I think this line 471 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 2: probably flips if we get announced that siege Stroud is 472 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: not gonna play, okay, right, And usually what happens is 473 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 2: when guys have concussions, the usually don't play the next week. Now, 474 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 2: sometimes it's been different. I mean Nico Collins just a 475 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 2: week ago, he missed a game after he got a concussion. 476 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: C J. Stroud man, guy's taking so many hits behind 477 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 2: this patchwork offensive line. They lost two more offensive linemen 478 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: in this game. It's just it's a it's a mess 479 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 2: right now for Houston. So I mean, even if he 480 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 2: was playing, are you so confident, Oh, well, they're definitely 481 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 2: gonna win, right Like I wouldn't be confident that either way. 482 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 2: So I think this is closer to pick them anyway, 483 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 2: even if Stroud plays. So I would just take the 484 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 2: Jaguars here with the points, because I think this line 485 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 2: is going to move in their favor once we get 486 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 2: a potential announcement, or worse, it just stays the same. 487 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 2: And I think that you're still alive as Jaguars plus 488 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 2: one and a half for them to just you lose 489 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: by a point or even win out right, So I 490 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 2: think the Jaguars are probably the value here, and my 491 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 2: best bet at this game is probably going to be 492 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 2: on my card. Is just the game total going under. Okay, Okay, 493 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: anytime you see Texans at home, you just bet the under. 494 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 2: It's been that trend. I believe it's the last thirteen 495 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 2: home games where the Texants have been favored, twelve of 496 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 2: them have gone under the total. 497 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: Wow. 498 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 2: So I was very touch on Texans Broncos under last week, 499 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 2: and despite that game almost going in overtime, it was 500 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 2: not sweating. He was like, Nope, this game's going under, 501 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 2: not worried about it. So that's probably my best bet, 502 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:55,959 Speaker 2: even though the lines at thirty seven and a half 503 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 2: thirty and a half. It's this Texans defense man just 504 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 2: can't move the BA against them, and Jacksonville can barely 505 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 2: move the ball when they're not getting in their own way. 506 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: So right, right, Okay, So some early line value on 507 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: Duvall there for ericson and thankfully we didn't have to 508 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: watch either of the two and six Cleveland Browns or 509 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: the one in seven New York Jets play football in 510 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: Week nine. It was glorious. But they're up against each 511 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: other here and the Jets. They're coming in as one 512 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half point favorites. 513 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: The Jets. They got their first winning the season against 514 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: the Bengals in Cincinnati last time out, getting to four 515 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: and four ats Cleveland. Meanwhile, they failed to cover in 516 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,719 Speaker 1: that blowout loss in New England in Week eight, falling 517 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: now to two and five ats. So ericson, do you 518 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: have a play in the Loser Bowl. It's featuring a 519 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: total of thirty six and a half points if you 520 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 1: want it. 521 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: I think that you should probably just bet on the 522 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,479 Speaker 2: Jets right now, as bad as that sounds, because we're 523 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 2: gonna see this always happened every single week. The sharp 524 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 2: money comes into the Jets, it pushes the line. They're 525 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 2: going to be favored by a field goal with the 526 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 2: time this line closed, So get it now minus one 527 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 2: and a half. The Browns defense is not nearly as 528 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 2: good when they play on the road, and Dylan Gabriel 529 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 2: is the quarterback. Right bet againstpring quarterbacks on the road. 530 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 2: That's the system that works. So I think just the 531 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 2: Jets is just the value here, and I think it's 532 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: gonna move, and they're they're gonna close the field goal favorites. 533 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 2: That's what I would bet. 534 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: Do you think any NFL trade deadline implications could could 535 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: come into play here? Obviously, Breis Hall has been a 536 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: name on the market. We've also seen the rumors, which 537 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: feel more like rumors than facts, that Miles Garrett could 538 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: potentially be on the move as well. So do you 539 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 1: see any of those implications taking form here? 540 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think that especially with the 541 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 2: Jets coming off a win, although it was last week 542 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 2: because they were on a bye week. Sure, a lot 543 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 2: of the media that I absorbed this week was anybody 544 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 2: who lost this week, they're gonna sell their their their assets. 545 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 2: If you lost in Week nine, you're going to sell 546 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 2: your pieces, whereas if you won, even if it almost 547 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 2: like doesn't matter what your record is, just for like 548 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 2: team Morale stamp with like, no, we won, we're keeping 549 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: the band together, We're not separating, Whereas like the Bengals, 550 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,400 Speaker 2: I mean, Jamar Chase is ready to trade the entire 551 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 2: defense off. 552 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if there's anyone to trade on 553 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 1: that defense. So slim pickens. But that's what happens when 554 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: you get all the money right, sometimes you don't get 555 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: the best people on the opposite side of the ball, 556 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: and Chase is learning that. So love hearing that. And 557 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: also opening up the four PM slay is the Arizona Cardinals. 558 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: They're two and five. They're on the road in Seattle 559 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: as seven two, seven and a half point road dogs 560 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: to the six and two Seahawks. We still haven't seen 561 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: the Cards on Monday Night yet, but they are coming 562 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: off five straight losses straight up, four of those coming 563 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: ats as well. Seattle legitimately looks like one of the 564 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: best teams in the NFC. Sam Darnold is dealing right 565 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: now at a very high clip. They've won three straight, 566 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 1: They've gotten to a league best six and two ats. 567 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: So are you comfortable laying a touchdown with the Seahawks 568 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 1: in this one air center? Does Jonathan Gannon potentially being 569 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: on the hot seat, maybe maybe not even being there 570 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: by next week change things for you? 571 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 2: I don't think they have to play on this game 572 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 2: because I still't know who's gonna be the quarterback for 573 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 2: the Cardinals, because I think that if it's Kyler versus 574 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissette. I think that kind of matters. And if 575 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 2: you like the Cardinals, think you like Jacoby Brissett, especially 576 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 2: if he's feeling good about coming off a game against 577 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 2: the Dallas Cowboys. I would say, though, I think my 578 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: play on this game will be towards the under. If 579 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 2: you look at okay, and this was one of the 580 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 2: trends I liked when I was talking about the Broncos 581 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 2: and Texans game teams after facing Dallas, which basically every 582 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 2: single game goes over the total. Only one time this 583 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 2: year has that game gone over again. So when teams 584 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 2: face Dallas, you basically get inflated lines because oh my god, 585 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 2: this office is so good. Okay, and then they face 586 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 2: another defense. But basically when you go from Dallas to Seattle, 587 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 2: that's just going to result in significantly less scoring. So 588 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 2: I actually like the under on this game, and I 589 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 2: think this is one you actually want to wait because 590 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 2: if the Cardinals offense shows out against Dallas basically avery 591 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 2: offense does or just looks competent, I think maybe you 592 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 2: see this move up to like forty six and a half, 593 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 2: I would slam the under because I just don't think 594 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 2: that we're going to see nearly as much offensive production, 595 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 2: especially if it's Kyle Okay starting so I like to 596 00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 2: play on the total here. 597 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 1: Okay and guys, make sure you are downloading the free 598 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: Betting Pros app for iOS and Android and with the 599 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: sportsbook Sinc Feature, you can atomatically track your bets across 600 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: all major books in just one simple spot. 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The five and three Detroit 608 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: Lions hope to get right in the Nation's capital, where 609 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: they're seven and a half to nine point favorites against 610 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 1: the three and six Washington Commanders. Detroit they lost as 611 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 1: four and a half point home favorites against Minnesota last week, 612 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: but they still are better than most teams ats this season. 613 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: For the comings, it looks like a last season after 614 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: losing Jane Daniels to that gruesome arm injury in their 615 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: Sunday night football collapse against the Seahawks. It's four straight losses, 616 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: straight up in ats coming in for Washington, and I 617 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: have to imagine a ton of money is coming in 618 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 1: against them right now, considering the discrepancy in the market 619 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: by nearly a point and a half. So are you 620 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 1: going to get in the bed with the public this week? Here? 621 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 2: Erickson going back to the Lions after they destroyed so 622 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 2: many people's money and bankrolls last week. 623 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: Survivor pool picks. 624 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,959 Speaker 2: Man, That's why, man, division games we try. It's like 625 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 2: they teach us these lessons every single week, and it's 626 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 2: like we just don't learn. It's like, no, it's a 627 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: division It's like the one division game last week. Of 628 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 2: course it was an upset right right, Like when you 629 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 2: think about it, of course, the Mikings are going to 630 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 2: upset the WND. It's the only divisional game going on. 631 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: So just keep that in mind, guys, as we're continuing 632 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 2: to learn here. Man, this one is tough because I 633 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 2: don't like betting on Jared Goflin plays outside so weather. 634 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,119 Speaker 2: That's something you got to check here. Okay, As the 635 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 2: calendar flips in November. Always stay ahead with the weather stuff. 636 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 2: So that's someone keep in mind before you lay the 637 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 2: points with the Lions. However, when you talk about Dan Campbell, 638 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 2: how good he is after they lose man, this is 639 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 2: just such a up hill batter for the Commanders. And 640 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 2: like you said in the introduction, this season's so lost 641 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 2: for the Commanders, right. This is what happens when you 642 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,159 Speaker 2: build your second year quarterback around the oldest roster in 643 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 2: the NFL. This is the result. So yeah, I think that, Yeah, 644 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,479 Speaker 2: I look the lines now, but if it gets up 645 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 2: to like Commanders like plus ten and a half, again, 646 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 2: I like double digit dogs, especially when they're at home. 647 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 2: So I think, right now, you gotta get the lines 648 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 2: because to your point, the money's the money's coming in. 649 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming in drones right now. And yeah, I 650 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: mean I get it. Like the Commander is why they 651 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: win it all in Like they tried to build kind 652 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,479 Speaker 1: of like almost a super team and they just relied 653 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: on a couple of old players. Terry McLaurin sat out 654 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: half the preseason in training came like that matters, man, 655 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: Like you gotta be there, you gotta get warmed up 656 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: man like I'll never draft after last year with Branaiyug, 657 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: I'll never draft in fantasy another player that's, you know, 658 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: doing the sit out game. It's just it's not profitable 659 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: and it's not profitable for betting either. When we come 660 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: into the season a lot of time so moving forward though, 661 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: We've also got a game in the late window that 662 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: could shape up the NFC West race very interestingly, the 663 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: six and two Los Angeles Rams. They come into the 664 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: Bay Area as three and a half point favorites. The 665 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: Rams got their third straight win and cover last week 666 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: against the Saints, but their straight up loss last time 667 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: was to the San Francisco forty nine Ers all the 668 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: way back in October, so they've been on a heater 669 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: since then. We still have no idea the statuses of 670 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: quarterback Brock Party wide receiver Ricky Piersoll, but we do 671 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: know no Fred Warner, no Nick Bosa, of course, mikel Williams, 672 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 1: Bryce Huff and center Jake Brendle. They're also all questionable. 673 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: After missing this last week, Howard didn't really seem to 674 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: matter because they went into the Giants one thirty four 675 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: to twenty four on the road to get to five 676 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 1: and three straight up. So will this be a similar 677 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: spot that we have to continue to back San Francisco 678 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 1: while they're dogs, or are we kind of hopping back 679 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: on the Rams here? 680 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: I'm off back on the Rams. Who's the better team? 681 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 2: Who is the best team in the NFL? Is it 682 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 2: not the Rams? 683 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: Oh? Man, I don't know. Seattle's up there. Seattle's up there. 684 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 2: Man. So you're saying Seattle's favored neutral site against the Rams. 685 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, the books. 686 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 2: So look my power rankings. I have Rams number one. 687 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 2: I think, okay, the best right. Matthew Stafford is just 688 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 2: playing an unreal level. And despite the fact that Pukinnaku 689 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 2: gets hurt in every game, it doesn't matter because he 690 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 2: just comes back at some point. So again a little 691 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 2: bit of a revenge narrative here. We saw the forty 692 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 2: nine ers upset the Rams a couple of weeks ago, 693 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 2: back on one of those Thursday nights. The Rams traditionally, 694 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 2: this is one of their best spots, is when they're 695 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 2: on the road. You get value on them because they 696 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 2: are known as the road team. I think this should 697 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 2: be a bit larger than a three and a half 698 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 2: point spread forty Niners I have no one left on defense, right, 699 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 2: you talk about Mikhail Williams, He's out for the season 700 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 2: now with one a torn acl or torn achilles injuries. 701 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 2: So we saw the Rams last week against the Saints 702 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 2: run out like four tight end personnel just pounding the 703 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: rock down and the Saints had no answers for it, 704 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 2: so they could just win in so many different ways. 705 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 2: And I think Sean McVay is just going to put 706 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 2: this defense that has nobody left through an absolute slender. 707 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the Rams. I don't think that 708 00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 2: three and a half is enough points. 709 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 1: Maybe my favorite bet of last week was Blake Korm 710 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 1: over seven and a half rushing attempts, not even a sweater, 711 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: not even a sweater hit that early in the second half. 712 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: So shout out to Blake Korm and Sean McVay forget 713 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 1: me that one, and let's go to Sunday night football, 714 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 1: where it doesn't get any better than this, at least 715 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: for me. The five and three Pittsburgh Steelers come off 716 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: a huge upset win against the Colts. They're traveling to 717 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: face the six and three Chargers, also coming off a 718 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: win against the Titans Los Angeles. They're laying three points 719 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 1: at most books, but there is the key number of 720 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 1: plus three and a half if you want the Steelers 721 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: available at one particular book. So is there any early 722 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 1: value in this spot, Erickson, between two teams that haven't 723 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: been extremely profitable or predictable this season. 724 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 2: I mean, when I first saw the Justin Herbert pick six, 725 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 2: I'm like, this is this is so West coast East 726 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 2: coast thing with the Chargers after. 727 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if that was after before the punt 728 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: return as well, but yeah. 729 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 2: That is just so classic Chargers going on the East 730 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 2: Coast just to do that thing. So, man, I don't 731 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 2: think I have a lean on this game. I think 732 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 2: that my numbers match up pretty close to what these 733 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 2: Steelers and Chargers have here with the books. 734 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: Okay, So I. 735 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 2: Think for right now, this is something I'm going to 736 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 2: take a deeper dive into on the Primer this week. 737 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, let's go ahead. Then let's round it out 738 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: with Monday Night Football where the five too and one 739 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 1: Rebay Packers they are two and a half point home 740 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: favorites against the six and two Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles, they're 741 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: coming off there by they had a chance to get 742 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: healthier at some after some of their best offensive performances 743 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: of the season, getting them to five and three straight up. 744 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 1: We also know they have been making some trades fast 745 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: and furious, trying to acquire some more talent Gyra Alexander. 746 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,440 Speaker 1: We also had the trade with the Dolphins earlier today, 747 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 1: and as of Monday, it's looking like Sakuon Barkley could 748 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: be back as early as Monday. The Packers, meanwhile, they 749 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 1: just got gash and upset by the Carolina Panthers, dropping 750 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: them to three and five ATS. And maybe most importantly 751 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: you mentioned it at the top here, the offensive lynch 752 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: pin tuck tight end Tucker Craft. He's done for the 753 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: season with the knee injury. So ericson, I'm sort of 754 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 1: liking the Eagles here with an extra week prepare getting healthy. 755 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: What about yourself, Yeah, I'm. 756 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 2: Kind of curious to know what this line was going 757 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 2: into Week nine, right, because obviously the Packers feel much 758 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 2: less like a safe bet to make after you lose 759 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,040 Speaker 2: against Caroline Panthers at home. You lose your best offensive player, 760 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 2: most explosive offensive player in Tucker Craft, who's averaging over 761 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 2: ten yards after the catch, absolutely insane, and he's not 762 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 2: the only receiver that got banged up Matthew Golden got 763 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 2: banged up in this game for Green Bay. So what's 764 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 2: been making this Packers offensive work is Josh Jacobs grinding 765 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 2: away yards and scoring a lot of touchdowns and then explosiveness. 766 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 2: So now if you're taking away two of the most 767 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 2: explosive playmakers on this offense, between Tucker Craft and Matthew Golden, 768 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 2: I think I agree with you. I think that you've 769 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 2: got to look at the Eagles here, coming off a 770 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 2: bye week where we saw last week, what did they 771 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 2: do or last year what happened after the bye week? 772 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 2: They just run on a freaking run. They just run 773 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 2: an absolute tear. So it seems like they kind of 774 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 2: figure out themselves self identify what we need to fix. 775 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 2: So yeah, right now, again, I feel like usually you 776 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 2: get value on the team that really disappointed the week before, 777 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 2: but because Green Bay is still favored here, I think 778 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 2: the value is still on the Philadelphia Eagles, and maybe 779 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 2: we're kind of holding too close to our priors of well, 780 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 2: green Bay can beat anybody well without Tucker Craft. I 781 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 2: think that does change significantly in this defense. Man, it 782 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 2: shows up sometimes sometimes it doesn't, and just these overwhelming 783 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,800 Speaker 2: performance against teams like the Browns, Bengals, the Panthers. I 784 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 2: mean yeah, Green Bay feels like, yeah, they can beat 785 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 2: any team, and they can also get beat by any team. 786 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 2: So against the Philadelphia Eagles, I think I like the Birds. 787 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 1: To your point, the Eagles actually open up here on 788 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,600 Speaker 1: the looka edline as one and a half point favored, 789 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,520 Speaker 1: So I don't know what caused it to swing back 790 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,919 Speaker 1: the other. Maybe it's Saquon Barkley's availability, and maybe that's 791 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: where we're getting a little bit of a value. But 792 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 1: I do think there is some ev out there on 793 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 1: Philly right now, So I think that's where I will be, 794 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 1: and also where you and I will both be is 795 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 1: over on the Betting Pros app. You can go to 796 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash app and use the search feature 797 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 1: to search either Andrew Erikson, Seth Wilcock, either even maybe 798 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 1: Joe Pisapa, maybe he's doing some betting on his week off. 799 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: Because of course, hard rock bet is legal down there 800 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 1: in Florida, So just search all of our full names. 801 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: You can find us over there, all right, and that's 802 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 1: going to do it for us. On this Early Picks 803 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,399 Speaker 1: episode of BP, NFL still to come later this week 804 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 1: and every week right here on the BP YouTube channel 805 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,919 Speaker 1: and the audio feed our official picks and prediction show 806 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,760 Speaker 1: You'll Say Parole and Fits, his early bets and Survivor 807 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,240 Speaker 1: poll picks, plus ericson and Welsh's Player props on Friday. 808 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 1: Let us know down in the comments below your favorite 809 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 1: week ten picks. We want to hear from you, and 810 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 1: while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like bund 811 00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: and subscribing to the channel. 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