Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 3: Back to Manchester here, where we've been on the ground
Speaker 3: for several days. It's actually time to vote. What a
Speaker 3: great feeling after talking about polling for weeks and months,
Speaker 3: all the speculation and the prognosticating will not matter by
Speaker 3: the end of this day. The polls close beginning at seven.
Speaker 3: They do it a little bit differently in New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: The final polls will close at eight, and we expect
Speaker 3: a pretty early call from everyone we're talking to. Here.
Speaker 3: We have the latest on the ground polling in this
Speaker 3: rolling pole by Suffolk University that they've been working with
Speaker 3: the Boston Globe in USA. Today, it's not looking good
Speaker 3: for Nicki Haley. Remember this is the poll that had
Speaker 3: them in what within ten points a week ago, and
Speaker 3: Donald Trump just hit sixty percent for the first time
Speaker 3: in this poll, Nikki Haley at thirty eight percent. We've
Speaker 3: got twenty two delegates on the line and look New Hampshires,
Speaker 3: known for surprises. That's partly why we are here. And
Speaker 3: this is also where we begin our conversation with Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: Lauren Tazinski, who used to do this for a living.
Speaker 3: It's great to see in Manchester, just like the old
Speaker 3: days and the times that you spent covering the State
Speaker 3: House in Massachusetts. You covered Charlie Brown, you covered a
Speaker 3: guy named Scott Brown, who we talked to here last night.
Speaker 3: I just wonder, Lauren, your thoughts on where the Republican
Speaker 3: Party is and where it's turning here in New England.
Speaker 3: We've been talking so much about independence. Who are going
Speaker 3: to make up this decision? Where are the demographics now
Speaker 3: compared to a Republican party that elected Charlie Baker.
Speaker 4: That's a really good question. I think when we talk
Speaker 4: about New England conservative voters, we often think of the
Speaker 4: flinty Republican from New Hampshire. Sure, And you know it's
Speaker 4: really I think what it comes to to tonight is
Speaker 4: a gauge of is this still the party of Donald Trump?
Speaker 4: He won New Hampshire in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty,
Speaker 4: is he going to do it again tonight? And I
Speaker 4: think if you look at Charlie Baker, the nation's most
Speaker 4: popular governor at the time, who was a Republican. Despite that,
Speaker 4: didn't seek a third term in office. There's a number
Speaker 4: of reasons why he didn't run for reelection in Massachusetts,
Speaker 4: but it's also because he couldn't win a Republican primary
Speaker 4: in his own state. And I think those demographics kind
Speaker 4: of bear out in the state just north of Massachusetts's
Speaker 4: New Hampshire, which is where we are right now.
Speaker 3: How they share a lot of folks, right conservatives who
Speaker 3: work in Boston who've moved to New Hampshire for the
Speaker 3: more favorable taxes or whatever policy it is that turned
Speaker 3: the Manoa off in one state or the other. There
Speaker 3: are a lot of folks who are considered Massachusetts natives
Speaker 3: or I guess former residents, who are going to be
Speaker 3: making these decisions here in New Hampshire. So how do
Speaker 3: you put that all together? Is this the same New
Speaker 3: Hampshire that elected Donald Trump in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think if anything, this is even more
Speaker 4: so the New Hampshire that elected Donald Trump in twenty.
Speaker 3: Okay, it's trumpier, is what you mean?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: And I think it's also it lends itself to the
Speaker 4: Trump campaign. The Trump campaign is better organized and better
Speaker 4: run than it was in twenty sixteen. Even in Iowa,
Speaker 4: you know, you had the Trump Caucus captain hats that
Speaker 4: were gold and white, that were an absolute asset that
Speaker 4: wasn't happening in twenty sixteen. And the same thing is
Speaker 4: true in New Hampshire. Last night, Donald Trump did a
Speaker 4: rally and I believe Laconia, which is quite far north,
Speaker 4: and he admitted when he was at his rally that
Speaker 4: you know, my advisors recommended that I come all the
Speaker 4: way up here to speak to you guys. And you know,
Speaker 4: he talked about how he had all these supporters packed
Speaker 4: into a room. It speaks to not only the steadfast
Speaker 4: and as we've seen in that latest Boston globepole, the
Speaker 4: building support that Trump has, but also just the resiliency
Speaker 4: of it all and the attention by the Trump campaign
Speaker 4: in recognizing that New Hampshire is a fertile ground. Even
Speaker 4: though Nikki Hayley barn stormed the state and how is
Speaker 4: that going to work out for her?
Speaker 3: We'll starts making a wonder if the New Hampshire primary
Speaker 3: is still the New Hampshire primary.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the sentiment here having been
Speaker 4: on the ground in twenty sixteen, it's a different vibe. Also,
Speaker 4: that has to do with the Democrats not you know,
Speaker 4: Joe Biden is not on the ballot this time around,
Speaker 4: and so there's the whole writing campaign or whatever. Also,
Speaker 4: many Massachusetts electeds will have a hand in trying to
Speaker 4: have Joe Biden not suffer an embarrassing defeat.
Speaker 3: Yes, right, we'll see how that goes. Yeah, Phillips thinks
Speaker 3: he can embarrass Joe Biden. That's a whole other storyline here. Yes, sorry,
Speaker 3: I not at all. While you're with us and you're
Speaker 3: going to be running headlines on the terminal tonight, right,
Speaker 3: you need to know this is like, this is the
Speaker 3: person behind the curtain when you hear the news break
Speaker 3: later on. Are we going to get an early call?
Speaker 4: Listen, I'm no betting woman, However, I think it's very
Speaker 4: likely that if we see Trump perform the way that
Speaker 4: we have seen the polls show, I think we're going
Speaker 4: to get a pretty early call for Trump.
Speaker 3: Polls close at eight close, some say eight oh one,
Speaker 3: you're going to know who won, But we'll find out.
Speaker 4: I mean, listen, I'm you know we're going to be
Speaker 4: liveing p line crosses the terminal.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, thanks for joining. Come talk to me sometime in Washington.
Speaker 3: You're always welcome here. Lauren Tsinski with us here on
Speaker 3: Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Manchester and we're
Speaker 3: going to get an update now on things in the
Speaker 3: field from Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, who's been watching the polls
Speaker 3: since things opened fairly early this morning. Tyler, what are
Speaker 3: the stakes in this election today?
Speaker 5: Hey, Joe, Well, as you've mentioned, voting is well underway.
Speaker 5: I'm trying to see people walk around downtown Manchester with
Speaker 5: the eye voted stickers. That's how you know we're in
Speaker 5: the thick of it. Like you mentioned, polls are going
Speaker 5: to start closing at seven pm. The last poll's ROLLI
Speaker 5: remain open until eight pm. Now, to put this into
Speaker 5: context for you, there are twenty two delegates at stake
Speaker 5: in New Hampshire tonight, but that's less than one percent
Speaker 5: of what's needed for the Republican primary. But New Hampshire's
Speaker 5: first and the nation primary status means that all eyes
Speaker 5: are going to be on this race tonight, especially as
Speaker 5: the contest begins to win.
Speaker 3: Oh.
Speaker 5: Now, I know that both you and I are also
Speaker 5: going to be watching for the independent vote. This is
Speaker 5: an open primary and independent voters make up the largest
Speaker 5: share of New Hampshire voters at thirty nine percent.
Speaker 6: Now, the polling and the strategists are.
Speaker 5: Telling us that this is the needle that Nikki Hailey
Speaker 5: is trying to thread with these more moderate independent voters.
Speaker 5: But we have to remember in twenty sixteen, former President
Speaker 5: Trump handedly won independence in the twenty sixteen New Hampshire primary.
Speaker 5: It ultimately helped him win the state by twenty percentage points.
Speaker 5: Of the New Hampton Republican Party says that that is
Speaker 5: the narrative. He's going to be watching that these independent
Speaker 5: voters are former President Trump's to lose.
Speaker 7: He's also going to be watching for turnout.
Speaker 5: And I can tell you from the voters I've spoken
Speaker 5: to here on the ground, there's a lot of enthusiasm
Speaker 5: for getting out tonight, for both for and against the
Speaker 5: former president.
Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall, we thank you and we'll meet you a
Speaker 3: little bit later on on Balance of Power. Tyler will
Speaker 3: be with us for the duration and that's our plan.
Speaker 3: We've got many hours of programming coming to you life
Speaker 3: here from Manchester today here on Balance of Power, on
Speaker 3: the radio and on YouTube, later on Bloomberg TV, and
Speaker 3: special coverage tonight that will begin at eight pm Manchester time,
Speaker 3: if I can say that at least for today, as
Speaker 3: we add the voice of Lizzie Geiton, now, a voice
Speaker 3: of experience, having run Scott Brown's campaign for Senate here
Speaker 3: in Massachusetts, but also represented Governor Charlie Baker, the aforementioned
Speaker 3: governor of Massachusetts. Lizzie, it's great to see you. You're
Speaker 3: at Southen Hills Strategies now, a co founder Republican strategist
Speaker 3: and the first person we called when we we were
Speaker 3: coming up to Manchester. Thanks for making your way north.
Speaker 3: You're like those voters we were just talking about. You
Speaker 3: live in Massachusetts, but New Hampshire is also your backyard,
Speaker 3: and in some cases these voters who go to work
Speaker 3: every day in mass live here. And I wonder how
Speaker 3: you describe the demographics that we're talking about, because they're
Speaker 3: constantly changing, and when you look back to twenty sixteen,
Speaker 3: that might not be the best guide.
Speaker 7: That's right, and right now forty percent of the electorate
Speaker 7: is unenrolled and they all have the ability to go
Speaker 7: pull a ballot today. These are good conditions for Nikki
Speaker 7: Haley to not only pull Republicans and independents that are
Speaker 7: looking for an alternative to Trump, but there also could
Speaker 7: be some independents that are looking to an alternative to
Speaker 7: President Biden, who has snubbed the Grant State for the primary.
Speaker 3: So talk to me more about this elusive independent vote.
Speaker 3: People not from here are hearing about it, these undeclared
Speaker 3: Who are these people, where are they from? What are
Speaker 3: the demographics like? Is it what Donald Trump said as
Speaker 3: that they're kind of Democrats in disguise who want to
Speaker 3: go in and infiltrate this process with a protest vote.
Speaker 3: Are these Republicans who are looking for an alternative or
Speaker 3: is it somewhere in between.
Speaker 7: I think they're a little bit of everything. And I
Speaker 7: think in the age of you know, Biden and Trump,
Speaker 7: you're seeing more unenrolled voters because people are sick of
Speaker 7: the extremes on both sides. Most people are in the middle,
Speaker 7: and it's the extremism that's a big turn off to
Speaker 7: this political process. So I think that you're seeing people
Speaker 7: from the left, from the right, and frankly, people that
Speaker 7: just don't want to have a political label. And they're
Speaker 7: looking for, you know, fresh start, a different candidate that's
Speaker 7: going to bring an alternative to table that's not Trump, Robiden.
Speaker 3: So talk to me about the narrative here, because I've
Speaker 3: been here for a few days and I'm hearing that
Speaker 3: there's disappointment debates were canceled. Not all the network showed
Speaker 3: up this time. I wonder if you think that feeds
Speaker 3: into a potentially lower turnout, but also the sense of inevitability.
Speaker 3: I thought New Hampshire was supposed to be the place
Speaker 3: that brought surprises.
Speaker 7: Well it is, but this is also a state where
Speaker 7: there's a lot of value in retail politics. Residents expect
Speaker 7: to see the candidates to be able to shake their hand,
Speaker 7: ask some questions.
Speaker 3: The front runner never even came here, did a couple
Speaker 3: of rallies right.
Speaker 7: And is not doing the type of retail politicking that
Speaker 7: granted staters expect not to mention even President Biden. I mean,
Speaker 7: he hasn't step foot in the state since twenty two
Speaker 7: how about that? So I think that there's but you know,
Speaker 7: politics is also different now. I think it's not everybody's
Speaker 7: expecting to meet a candidate and spend time with them,
Speaker 7: but they're looking for someone that is going to talk
Speaker 7: to New Hampshire voters, that's going to show that, you know,
Speaker 7: they have a new approach. And granted, sators like to
Speaker 7: think for themselves, they don't like to be influenced by Washington.
Speaker 3: So you don't think this is done right. No one's
Speaker 3: counted a vote yet, and you've got people writing about
Speaker 3: the inevitable nomination of Donald Trump. Sure.
Speaker 7: I mean, not only do Trump Republicans want to see
Speaker 7: a Trump nomination, but I think Democrats all want to
Speaker 7: see Trump nomination because I don't think President Biden wants
Speaker 7: to go up against a more moderate Republican like Nikki Haley.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So you do think that that is right that
Speaker 3: the Biden camp thinks it can beat Donald Trump and
Speaker 3: would be at risk facing in Nicki Haley, because we've
Speaker 3: got swing state polling at Bloomberg and we're not the
Speaker 3: only ones showing that Joe Biden might have a hard
Speaker 3: time beating Donald Trump too.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and it's you know, an unknown Trump is a
Speaker 7: known quantity for Biden and for Democrats, and Nicki Haley
Speaker 7: is is different, right, She's an alternative to what we've
Speaker 7: seen for the past eight years.
Speaker 3: How important is this Christian New New endorsement. We talked
Speaker 3: to the governor over the weekend, the most coveted endorsement
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire. Has it been a difference maker for her?
Speaker 3: This was supposed to be Nicki Haley country.
Speaker 7: I think it's a good endorsement to have. Chris Nunho
Speaker 7: is a really popular governor, and again he's appealing to
Speaker 7: not just Republicans, but he's been supported by voters on
Speaker 7: all sides, and I think that there's a trust in
Speaker 7: him in the Granite State that they do take what
Speaker 7: he says to heart. But you know, it's really interesting,
Speaker 7: like how much cloud does an endorsement hold these days
Speaker 7: is an interesting question, and I think part of it
Speaker 7: is really just that New Hampshire voters like to think
Speaker 7: for themselves.
Speaker 3: Yeah right. We're spending time with Republican strategist Lizzie Geiton
Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg's balance of power. As I mentioned, you
Speaker 3: were a spokesperson for Governor Charlie Baker at the time,
Speaker 3: the most popular governor in the United States of America.
Speaker 3: Many folks thought he might be the future of the party.
Speaker 3: How do we get this guy to run for president?
Speaker 3: But if you had done that, he wouldn't have been
Speaker 3: able to clear a primary. He may well have won
Speaker 3: a general election. So where does that say about where
Speaker 3: we are now versus twenty sixteen.
Speaker 7: I think it's hard for any moderate in a primary setting,
Speaker 7: and I think that goes for both Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker 3: I had a problem for democracy.
Speaker 7: I think it's a challenge, and I think you know,
Speaker 7: even for a candidate like Nikki Haley, who you know
Speaker 7: is certainly looking to get some momentum here in New
Speaker 7: Hampshire to carry on her margins should always expected to
Speaker 7: be tight in primaries because she is more of a
Speaker 7: moderate candidate than you know, some would say Trump is.
Speaker 7: And then a conservative choice.
Speaker 3: Where are you going to be looking tonight? You've helped
Speaker 3: to run a Senate campaign here in New Hampshire, and
Speaker 3: you have a sense of geography and demographics. Where should
Speaker 3: we have our eyes when the polls close?
Speaker 7: I think the counties where Governor Kasik did well are
Speaker 7: wants to watch for Nicki Haley. And you know, I
Speaker 7: know everyone's saying eight oh one, but yeah, some of
Speaker 7: the bigger voting precincts will take a little bit more
Speaker 7: time to come in and I think those will be
Speaker 7: especially if there's good turnout and there's a lot of
Speaker 7: independence that go out and vote today, those are going
Speaker 7: to be where you're going to want to watch for
Speaker 7: Haley to have some good numbers.
Speaker 3: Are you pushing us back on an early call? You
Speaker 3: think this might take a minute.
Speaker 7: It might take a minute. I don't think we're going
Speaker 7: to be you.
Speaker 3: Know, maybe that's the surprise if she's doing better than expected.
Speaker 7: Yeah, just we got to wait for some of those
Speaker 7: bigger returns to come in.
Speaker 3: I'm sure would say you saw the Suffolk numbers I
Speaker 3: started with here, Trump's at sixty percent. Now do you
Speaker 3: believe it?
Speaker 7: I think we got to give it the day. I
Speaker 7: think it's too early to make anything.
Speaker 3: I keep here in New Hampshire people like messing with Polsters.
Speaker 3: That's why I asked you.
Speaker 7: They love We also put a lot of stock and
Speaker 7: poles these days. And I also would say we have
Speaker 7: to keep in mind in the past seven days, the
Speaker 7: landscape of this primary has changed dramatically, with Christi dropping
Speaker 7: out Vvek and then DeSantis. So even if we are
Speaker 7: leaning heavily on the polls, there hasn't been that much
Speaker 7: polling that's just a Haley Trump matchup.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true enough. And you wonder where those those
Speaker 3: final DeSantis votes go. I think we know where the
Speaker 3: Christie votes went based on her trajectory recently. What a
Speaker 3: great pleasure to see Lizzie Guidon. Thank you so much
Speaker 3: for coming to talk to us at South End Hill
Speaker 3: Strategies affirm that you co founded, and I hope everything
Speaker 3: is well for you, Stanta for this year at Bloomberg. Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Manchester, New Hampshire, and we do
Speaker 3: thank you for being with us here on Ballance of Power,
Speaker 3: with a lot more to follow, including our conversation with
Speaker 3: Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips. It's next. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 3: We're here to cover the Republican primary of course in
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, but there is a Democrat traveling the state
Speaker 3: knocking on doors and trying to make some noise here.
Speaker 3: That would be Congressman Dean Phillips. He's running against Joe
Speaker 3: Biden in a primary that doesn't actually matter. Things get
Speaker 3: a bit complicated here, But after they changed the schedule
Speaker 3: the objection of by New Hampshire, it led the DNC
Speaker 3: to a decision to not recognize the delegates here. So
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is not campaigning, certainly in person, and he's
Speaker 3: not acknowledging the challenge, if we can call it that.
Speaker 3: From Dean Phillips. We talked about his long shot campaign
Speaker 3: and to sit down with myself and my partner, Kaylee Lyons,
Speaker 3: who will be here of course, next hour. And Kaylee
Speaker 3: started by asking him about his claim that Joe Biden
Speaker 3: is a danger to democracy, whether his campaign that's underway
Speaker 3: right now is in fact a danger to Joe Biden.
Speaker 8: Here he is.
Speaker 9: I'm simply calling attention to the very danger he's presenting
Speaker 9: to both his legacy, our party, and the country. To
Speaker 9: anybody who wishes to prevent another Donald Trump White House administration.
Speaker 9: We've got to wake up from this delusion that Joe
Speaker 9: Biden is an electable candidate. All the data show that
Speaker 9: he's not weakest approval numbers in I think American presidential history,
Speaker 9: three points below where Donald Trump was at the same
Speaker 9: point in his presidency, nine points below Barack Obama as
Speaker 9: he approached his reelection. National polls some show him a
Speaker 9: little bit ahead, but of course Democrats, because of the
Speaker 9: electoral college, have to be.
Speaker 8: Way above that.
Speaker 9: But it's the battleground numbers that I encourage people to
Speaker 9: take a look at. Eight points down in Georgia. I
Speaker 9: think it's the same in Michigan. This is a tragedy
Speaker 9: just waiting to happen. I did not weaken the in fact,
Speaker 9: to the contrary, I spent the last few years trying
Speaker 9: to help him, voting for his policies, being a member
Speaker 9: of House Democratic leadership to promote them. We all know
Speaker 9: what's going on in Washington. I think I'm just saying
Speaker 9: the quiet part out loud. I'm not weakening him. The
Speaker 9: party is choosing a coronation instead of the very competitions
Speaker 9: that our founders intended this country to be predicated upon.
Speaker 3: They seem to upset a number of people in your party.
Speaker 3: I spoke good trouble your colleague Annie Custer at this
Speaker 3: table over the weekend She called your campaign ill advised
Speaker 3: and unimpressive, and went on to say that she doesn't
Speaker 3: know what you're up to here in New Hampshire. So
Speaker 3: let's get to this because it appears like this would
Speaker 3: be very difficult for you to win. What are you
Speaker 3: up to.
Speaker 9: I'm up to practicing democracy, and I think elected officials
Speaker 9: like my colleague Miscuster should be doing the same thing.
Speaker 9: And this notion to condemn those who would have the
Speaker 9: audacity to actually do what we are supposed to do
Speaker 9: in this country I think as appalling. It's one thing
Speaker 9: that President Biden was looking strong where the country valued
Speaker 9: his re election, where his numbers were rising, or at
Speaker 9: least in the forties or fifties, if his battleground numbers
Speaker 9: were even, if not a little ahead. Remember Hillary Clinton
Speaker 9: was ahead of Donald Trump in twenty sixteen. Everybody anticipated
Speaker 9: her victory. Donald Trump overperforms because the polls don't even
Speaker 9: measure his success. Miscuster, she can feel the way she wants.
Speaker 9: She called my campaign to my face unserious. I think
Speaker 9: she might be surprised tomorrow evening when she sees the
Speaker 9: number and sees an extraordinarily weak incumbent and a rather
Speaker 9: remarkably stronger challenger than she would have anticipated. But my
Speaker 9: point is this, I went to a Trump rally last night.
Speaker 9: I literally walked the line. Seemed like a mile long
Speaker 9: of Trump supporters standing in the cold for hours waiting
Speaker 9: to get in. I simply walked the line. Didn't know
Speaker 9: what I'd expect. But I'll tell you I had fifty
Speaker 9: conversations with people, hospitable, friendly kind. I would ask them
Speaker 9: first rally, I'd say over I'd say maybe half of
Speaker 9: the people I spoke to first time they'd ever gone
Speaker 9: to a Trump rally, diverse divers diversity of politics, of races,
Speaker 9: of religions. It was astounding everybody. And my message to Ms.
Speaker 9: Custer and every Democrat who is propagating this fallacy that
Speaker 9: Biden will win. It's a tragedy in waiting. Somebody had
Speaker 9: to stand up in the absence of others of courage,
Speaker 9: including governors from the wind West, and including my colleagues
Speaker 9: in the House and Senate. They sit on the sidelines
Speaker 9: instead of meeting the moment. The president never should have
Speaker 9: run again. We all know that. And I'm saying the
Speaker 9: quiet part out loud.
Speaker 6: So you're saying, the data is suggesting to you that
Speaker 6: he's not going to win again.
Speaker 9: Well the is anybody who reads it would I can't
Speaker 9: imagine seeing it and saying that he has a good
Speaker 9: chance of winning, not to mention, of course, the element
Speaker 9: of his stage in life. It's real. It's going to
Speaker 9: be eighty two years old at the next election. I
Speaker 9: think he'd be eighty six by the end of his
Speaker 9: next term. There was a Time magazine cover when Bob
Speaker 9: Dole ran that question whether he was too old at
Speaker 9: seventy two. It's not an issue of age. It's an
Speaker 9: issue of Americans having determined that he is beyond the
Speaker 9: time at stage of life for him to run this country.
Speaker 9: And by the way, I think Donald Trump is in
Speaker 9: the same category.
Speaker 6: Sure, they're not actually that far apart in age. Have
Speaker 6: you seen data though, that suggest you would win? If
Speaker 6: this is all about data At the end of the day,
Speaker 6: what do you see?
Speaker 8: My point?
Speaker 9: Not at this stage because nobody knows me yet, maybe
Speaker 9: the nice blessing of not being well known as two
Speaker 9: thirds of the country doesn't hate me yet. And I
Speaker 9: mean this sincerely. I mean it very sincerely. For my job,
Speaker 9: that's American politics right now, I will introduce myself to
Speaker 9: the country.
Speaker 8: They will see how hard I work.
Speaker 9: Where I show up, I run to the fire, I listen,
Speaker 9: I do what we do in America. I actually am campaigning,
Speaker 9: and I think in a matter of months we will
Speaker 9: have data that does show that I will be able
Speaker 9: to defeat Donald Trump and Joe Biden won't. If that
Speaker 9: is different, If somehow Biden miraculously recovers and suddenly is
Speaker 9: ahead and I'm behind, I will absolutely end this and
Speaker 9: get behind him. But not until we have data that
Speaker 9: suggests one or the other. And right now, all I
Speaker 9: see is the deficiency of the coronated candidate. And furthermore,
Speaker 9: if others would enter this race, I invite them. How
Speaker 9: about that, I'm inviting you to join this. The water
Speaker 9: is warm, this is practicing democracy, and if someone else
Speaker 9: can demonstrate that they're better positioned, we who wish to
Speaker 9: prevent another Trump White House should get behind them.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about this contest in New Hampshire. What kind
Speaker 3: of a margin do you need to pull here to
Speaker 3: be taken seriously?
Speaker 9: I think after ten weeks zero name recognition and starting
Speaker 9: at zero in the polls four in the twenties tomorrow,
Speaker 9: that would be extraordinary. But I think what people should
Speaker 9: really be paying attention to is where does Joe Biden
Speaker 9: end up tomorrow? Bill Clinton achieved eighty four percent, Barack
Speaker 9: Obama eighty one percent.
Speaker 3: In a writing campaign.
Speaker 9: It's a writing campaign with the incumbent president who should
Speaker 9: be on the ballot. By the way, the unreported story
Speaker 9: of this whole primary is his rationale for not even
Speaker 9: appearing on the ballot, his own choice. But we all
Speaker 9: know there's a writing campaign here. Every member of the
Speaker 9: cabinet I think, has been up the mayor of Boston,
Speaker 9: the governor of Massachusetts, A number of my own colleagues
Speaker 9: have been up here doing the same thing, telling people
Speaker 9: who write in Biden there's a super pac set up.
Speaker 9: My goodness, they are trying really hard, which I considered
Speaker 9: it to be the hypocrisy of democracy. If I'm in
Speaker 9: the twenties, that would be spectacular. If he's anywhere close
Speaker 9: to eighty, I would be shocked. In fact, anything I
Speaker 9: predict more in the fifties or sixties, which will be
Speaker 9: the first evidence that voters are actually being reflected by
Speaker 9: the polls saying that he cannot win.
Speaker 6: There's been reporting on the eve of this primary about
Speaker 6: a robocall that has been going out to voters an
Speaker 6: AI generated voice of the president telling them to hold
Speaker 6: their vote until November. Do you know anything about that?
Speaker 6: What is your reaction to.
Speaker 9: Other than when I just read and I just did
Speaker 9: read that, which, by the way, I hope you all
Speaker 9: know the state of New Hampshire. The Attorney General here
Speaker 9: just sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee a
Speaker 9: cease and assist for the unlawful suppression of voters. So
Speaker 9: I don't know who's behind that. I think it's appalling,
Speaker 9: and I think here's the bigger issue. There was an
Speaker 9: outside group that also did a bot for Deanis. I
Speaker 9: think it was called deanbot, which is now taken down.
Speaker 9: But here's the real issue. The Biden administration has known
Speaker 9: that AI is coming down the pipeline. They understand the
Speaker 9: risks of deep fakes, and have done almost nothing to
Speaker 9: secure us from it. No guardrails, no legislation, and no
Speaker 9: willingness to actually confront what is forthcoming. That to me
Speaker 9: is a metaphor for this entire problem.
Speaker 6: There was an AI executive order, but it has pretty comprehensive.
Speaker 9: It has not done anything to prevent the same thing.
Speaker 9: Right now, what you just refer to who did it.
Speaker 9: There's no way to identify right now. There might be
Speaker 9: an investigation. I'd sure love to know who did it.
Speaker 9: The notion of suppressing voters, by the way, I want
Speaker 9: voters to come out and vote. The Democratic National Committee
Speaker 9: is the only entity of which I'm aware who has
Speaker 9: been reprimanded for the suppression of voters in this election.
Speaker 9: And I would ask you to take a look at
Speaker 9: that letter.
Speaker 3: Congressman Dean Philip speaking with us here in Manchester, speaking
Speaker 3: to the hypocrisy of democracy as he put it in
Speaker 3: now with White House correspondent Jordan Fabian, who's also with
Speaker 3: us here in New Hampshire. When you see the final
Speaker 3: analysis piece drop after this race is called at some
Speaker 3: point tonight, it'll be Jordan writing it. And it's great
Speaker 3: to see, sir. Thanks for coming back on Balance of Power.
Speaker 3: You cover the White House? Did Joe Biden ever call
Speaker 3: Dean Phillips have forgotten the.
Speaker 10: Race, not to our knowledge, and the Biden campaign and
Speaker 10: the White House have not really even acknowledged this campaign
Speaker 10: is happening.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems like it.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, look, they want to project this sense
Speaker 10: of inevitability around Biden's race, that he will be the
Speaker 10: nominee and that they want to focus all of their
Speaker 10: attention on their likely opponent, Donald Trump, so they don't
Speaker 10: want to give Dean Phillips any oxygen here in New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: We talked to Congresswoman Any Custer here the other day.
Speaker 3: She's helping to drive this write in campaign. Can you
Speaker 3: imagine what it's a writing campaign for a president of
Speaker 3: the United States. It's been a good generation since that
Speaker 3: has had to happen here. But could this be an
Speaker 3: embarrassment for Joe Biden? What if Dean Phillips pulls fifty
Speaker 3: percent or something.
Speaker 10: It won't stop Biden's march to the nomination. As you
Speaker 10: mentioned earlier, the delegates here aren't going to count in
Speaker 10: the nominating psychological right, but symbolically it could. If Dean
Speaker 10: Phillips finishes within five to ten percent, say of Joe Biden,
Speaker 10: it's not going to look good for Joe Biden, and
Speaker 10: it could make Joe Biden look weak among the Democratic
Speaker 10: electorate here and raise questions about his strength among his
Speaker 10: own party, let alone the general electorate.
Speaker 3: So somebody is going to do a victory speech to
Speaker 3: iother Donald Trump or Nikki Haley, will we hear from
Speaker 3: the president after that. I support the campaign, I suppose
Speaker 3: I should.
Speaker 10: Say, there are no plans to as part of this
Speaker 10: arrangement where the Democratic National Committee has picked South Carolina
Speaker 10: as the first nominating state, they cannot engage in this
Speaker 10: primary at all. In fact that if they do, I
Speaker 10: think there's some penalty where they would lose delegates. So
Speaker 10: they're not going to talk about this at all. This
Speaker 10: writing campaign that you mentioned, it's being done by unofficially
Speaker 10: by Biden supporters as a super pac that's behind the effort.
Speaker 3: But he can't have his fingerprints on it at the point.
Speaker 3: That's why we won't get a speech tonight. Exactly. This
Speaker 3: is remarkable. Here we are in New Hampshire for the
Speaker 3: first of the nation primary, even though it's not for Democrats,
Speaker 3: and the White House can't even act like it exists.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know this this race has had just an
Speaker 10: odd feeling. Joe, isn't that someone who's covered it before? Yeah,
Speaker 10: you know, both of us. This used to be a
Speaker 10: hub of activity. Where's the circus? Yes, you look out
Speaker 10: in the in the lobby here at the Double Tree,
Speaker 10: and it's a little sleepy.
Speaker 3: So Jordan Fabian. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can't
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on appo CarPlay and
Speaker 1: then with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Welcome to Bloomberg Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and
Speaker 3: Radio and on YouTube. Kaylee, great to see you here
Speaker 3: in Manchester with hours left to actual holes closing here,
Speaker 3: it's a staggered pole. Is that like a laddered poll
Speaker 3: as we would call it in Washington? Most close at seven,
Speaker 3: the rest close at eight. Yeah, we'll see if we
Speaker 3: get an early call.
Speaker 6: Well, yeah, how close to eight pm could we get
Speaker 6: that call? Keeping in mind that in Iowa took about
Speaker 6: half an hour, the caucuses weren't even actually over, and
Speaker 6: it was called for Trump. He had a very commanding
Speaker 6: lead in Iowa. Essentially, the Associated Press and other networks
Speaker 6: made the estimation that there was no way any other
Speaker 6: candidate was going to be able to catch him. If
Speaker 6: it's closer in New Hampshire, though, are they going to
Speaker 6: be as willing to put a call out there that
Speaker 6: early knowing that they got a good deal of blowback
Speaker 6: for it last.
Speaker 3: Week, especially with people still in line. Potentially it's a
Speaker 3: different animal, to your point than caucusing. But we're really
Speaker 3: kind of obsessing over this new Suffolk number here and
Speaker 3: deeply curious to hear what Frank Luntz has to say
Speaker 3: about it. I've been looking forward to this conversation. We
Speaker 3: last spoke with Frank. Of course, famed Polster now at
Speaker 3: fil the firm that he runs here as a consultant.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you, and glad we got through
Speaker 3: both of these cold states together. It's almost over.
Speaker 11: Well, you can hear from my voice unfortunately, and I
Speaker 11: apologize for those listening to me, but it's still better
Speaker 11: than watching me. In Iowa, we knew that Trump was
Speaker 11: right at the majority, and that was key, and we
Speaker 11: could not call whether or not Haley was going to
Speaker 11: come in second or third. Now with a two person race,
Speaker 11: we know that Trump has I know that Trump has
Speaker 11: a majority. I have no doubt about that. The question
Speaker 11: is is the gap ten percent or more?
Speaker 6: And by majority you mean he'll secure at least fifty percent.
Speaker 11: That's correct, and it's a ratio that I'm looking for
Speaker 11: if it's less than ten percent, she can make the
Speaker 11: case that she should stay in if it's more than
Speaker 11: ten percent. When she put a lot of time into here,
Speaker 11: she put a lot of effort, a lot of money
Speaker 11: into it. She had the governor following with her in
Speaker 11: every stop that they went, and he was very powerful.
Speaker 11: I don't know how you continue a campaign when the
Speaker 11: next state is South Carolina, her state, and she's losing
Speaker 11: it by big numbers.
Speaker 6: Her campaign sent out a memo today and I'm not
Speaker 6: sure sure if you've seen it, but essentially saying, everybody
Speaker 6: stay calm, We're staying in this race. They signed off
Speaker 6: on the letter with see y'all in South Carolina. Seems
Speaker 6: to be an indication we're going there regardless on February
Speaker 6: twenty fourth. But our campaign manager pointed out in that
Speaker 6: memo on Super Tuesday, eleven of the sixteen states are
Speaker 6: open primaries. Is there a world in which she may
Speaker 6: not do well in South Carolina but comes Super Tuesday
Speaker 6: enough Democrats could think Trump has the Repulican nomination locked
Speaker 6: up if I don't do something and I'll go out
Speaker 6: and vote for NICKI Haley.
Speaker 11: Yes, there is, But here's the problem. That world exists
Speaker 11: here in New Hampshire. And if you can pull it
Speaker 11: off here in New Hampshire, why should you be able
Speaker 11: to pull it off in Super Tuesday. That's why the
Speaker 11: margin is so important. I'm not looking at winners or
Speaker 11: losers tonight. I believe I know what's going to happen,
Speaker 11: But the margin is everything.
Speaker 3: This sixty percent number in the Suffolk poll is getting
Speaker 3: a lot of attention. It's the first time that Donald
Speaker 3: Trump has hit that level. Are those Ron de Santis
Speaker 3: voters who are being added to the pile. How does
Speaker 3: he continue to gain It's not like he's not going doors,
Speaker 3: are doing anything different.
Speaker 11: Well, he's not knocking on doors, He's simply running these rallies.
Speaker 11: They get a lot of attention. First you lose the
Speaker 11: veik and all of his votes go to Trump. Actually,
Speaker 11: even before that, you lose Chris Christi. The expectation was
Speaker 11: that two thirds of his vote, maybe three quarters, would
Speaker 11: end up with Nikki Haley. That does not seem to
Speaker 11: be the case. It looks like it's more than fifty
Speaker 11: about somewhere between fifty to fifteen sixty forty, and with
Speaker 11: the Florida governor pulling out, those numbers are probably two
Speaker 11: to one or even three to one going to Trump.
Speaker 11: And here's the interesting factory. All the candidates who are
Speaker 11: running six months ago have dropped out and supported Trump,
Speaker 11: not Haley. I think that's significant. I think that's had
Speaker 11: an impact on the polling. And as people make that
Speaker 11: final decision, they seem to be deciding that they're going
Speaker 11: to go with the candidate they know, rather than the
Speaker 11: candidate that they don't know.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 6: One of those for candidates who backed Trump was South
Speaker 6: Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who was appointed to the Senate
Speaker 6: by Nikki Haley more than a decade ago. Christ and
Speaker 6: you knew the governor, and of course a Hailey surrogate
Speaker 6: told us that it was just disrespectful, but ultimately he
Speaker 6: thought it didn't matter. So that is it that endorsements
Speaker 6: matter if you don't get them, not if you do.
Speaker 6: Is that essentially what you're saying.
Speaker 11: That's a great question. They matter when there's so many
Speaker 11: of them. There are so many Congressmen, so many senators
Speaker 11: that have endorsed Trump in the last ten days, so
Speaker 11: many people from South Carolina even came up here. The
Speaker 11: current governor of South Carolina did a speech at the
Speaker 11: rally that I think we all attended a few days ago.
Speaker 11: That's significant because it sends a sign and those undecided
Speaker 11: it's less than temper simples. Undecideds are looking where are
Speaker 11: the winds blowing, where are the candidates making their decisions?
Speaker 11: And when they see that they're all from South Carolina,
Speaker 11: that does have an impact.
Speaker 3: Spending time with Frank Lunza on Bloomberg TV and talk
Speaker 3: to us about the New Hampshire primary. What was such
Speaker 3: an important part of the process for so many years
Speaker 3: seems to have been downgraded into I don't even know
Speaker 3: what we're calling this now. The lack of attendance that
Speaker 3: we're seeing, the lack of excitement, the lack of carnival atmosphere,
Speaker 3: and what appears to be a sense of inevitability in
Speaker 3: the state that's supposed to bring surprises.
Speaker 11: So I remember this set, I remember other sets back
Speaker 11: four years ago. You couldn't get into the hotel right
Speaker 11: you're you're fifty feet away from the lobby. Here, it's empty,
Speaker 11: there's no way to get a table. It's going on,
Speaker 11: there's no one standing up. There's still candidates walking through,
Speaker 11: there's still governors, senators, but the intensity isn't there. First
Speaker 11: because the Democrats don't really have a primary. I bought
Speaker 11: a hat that says right in Joe Biden. Nobody wanted
Speaker 11: to buy it from me. Nobody cares and on the rude,
Speaker 11: but you.
Speaker 6: Were trying to arbitrage saying how much do you buy
Speaker 6: the hat for? What are you trying to sell it for?
Speaker 11: I bought it for nine bucks, tried to sell it
Speaker 11: for nineteen bucks, and I go And by the way,
Speaker 11: then I don't think Bloomberg's ever gonna vite me on
Speaker 11: because you want people who make money, not people.
Speaker 8: Who lose money. And so there's.
Speaker 11: Nothing on the Democratic side and on the Republican side.
Speaker 11: The feeling is that the decision has been made. And
Speaker 11: I will tell you this, I've never been to a
Speaker 11: rally like Donald Trump's. Here I had to stand out
Speaker 11: line for forty five minutes. It was snowing, it was
Speaker 11: cold as heack, and nobody left that line. They were
Speaker 11: willing to wait until the end. There were people still
Speaker 11: wind up that couldn't get into the big that's significant.
Speaker 11: Now Nikki Haley has big rallies, but nothing like that,
Speaker 11: and the intensity.
Speaker 8: Donald Trump spoke for over an hour and a half.
Speaker 11: Nobody left everybody laughed at jokes, everybody participated.
Speaker 8: There is a passion to his supporters.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and we've seen that in poling. They are far
Speaker 6: more enthusiastic to show up for him. More of their
Speaker 6: votes are for him rather than against Nikki Haley. That's
Speaker 6: not necessarily the case for Haley. A lot of those
Speaker 6: votes are cast for her because they're against Trump more
Speaker 6: than they are for her. So it gets to the
Speaker 6: turnout question on the point of how much enthusiasm Trump
Speaker 6: has with his supporters. We've heard over the last several
Speaker 6: days that it could be a record turnout for this vote,
Speaker 6: something to the tune of three hundred and twenty thousand plus,
Speaker 6: and that higher turnout would benefit Nikki Haley. Could it
Speaker 6: actually benefit Trump more if it's his voters that are
Speaker 6: driving that high turnout.
Speaker 11: Absolutely, I'm not convinced that this is going to be
Speaker 11: a record turnout.
Speaker 8: In fact, I actually believe that it will not.
Speaker 3: Does not sound unlikely based on what you.
Speaker 11: Just said, because those who've decided are participating in those
Speaker 11: who don't have a candidate in this race, because normally
Speaker 11: there's four or five six candidates right now, now there
Speaker 11: are only two. So I think that depresses turnout. But
Speaker 11: the thing I want to raise with you, because viewers
Speaker 11: are always trying to look into the future, is that
Speaker 11: there are a lot of people who do not like
Speaker 11: Joe Biden, do not like Donald Trump. And if Trump
Speaker 11: wins by ten points tomorrow, the conversation's going to be
Speaker 11: is there going to be a third party candidate? Does
Speaker 11: that third party candidate have credibility? And will people be
Speaker 11: looking for an alternative to the two party system. I
Speaker 11: think the answer to that is yes.
Speaker 3: Boy, we're gonna get into the No Labels conversation.
Speaker 6: Well, we had that conversation with Dean Phillips yesterday and.
Speaker 3: He says he's not running, but we've heard a lot
Speaker 3: of interesting names who have gotten phone calls. There was
Speaker 3: even reporting that Nikki Haley is on their radar. If
Speaker 3: she doesn't put this together in New Hampshire, does she
Speaker 3: get a call from No Labels?
Speaker 11: She'll probably get a call because she's been willing to
Speaker 11: run against the establishment. The game for No Labels is
Speaker 11: that they're even less establishment than Donald Trump. And it's
Speaker 11: not just about ideology. It's not just about being in
Speaker 11: the center. It's also how you carry yourself. The three
Speaker 11: attributes the American people looking for right now. Number one
Speaker 11: is results, Number two is accountability, and number three a
Speaker 11: detailed plan of action. I'm not sure that describes either
Speaker 11: of the likely nominees. That could describe a third party candidate.
Speaker 11: And notice that I didn't mention a single issue. It's
Speaker 11: all about their attributes, who they are as people.
Speaker 6: I wonder how you look at the data we've seen
Speaker 6: on third parties or just on the idea that people
Speaker 6: would like an alternative to Trump and Biden. It's more
Speaker 6: than two thirds say they don't want either of these
Speaker 6: men to be president of the United States. Again, the
Speaker 6: number is significantly lower though, when people are asked if
Speaker 6: they would support a third party candidate. So just dissatisfaction
Speaker 6: with these two candidates doesn't necessarily mean that they would
Speaker 6: be satisfied with someone else. What do you make of that?
Speaker 11: So we know that that number seventy percent that does
Speaker 11: not like either candidate, we know that two thirds want
Speaker 11: to vote will at least seriously consider another candidate. And
Speaker 11: we know that forty six percent now actually want to
Speaker 11: vote against Trump and Biden. That's a really large voter pool.
Speaker 11: Ross Proka nineteen percent in nineteen ninety two. I believe
Speaker 11: a third party candidate, a genuine third party candidate, starts
Speaker 11: with twenty percent of the vote. All they need to
Speaker 11: do is add two or three percent more. They start
Speaker 11: to win electoral votes, add five percent.
Speaker 8: More or more. They become real players.
Speaker 11: And to get into the debates, you need fifteen percent
Speaker 11: of the vote. And I have no doubt that a
Speaker 11: true independent candidacy candidate that has those attributes will garner
Speaker 11: fifteen percent of the vote.
Speaker 3: And you wonder if Donald Trump shows up for a
Speaker 3: three way debate, that'll be an interesting one.
Speaker 6: Assuming he's cycle.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he is the nominee. We were fascinated to learn
Speaker 3: Frank Lunson in Iowa that immigration was the top issue
Speaker 3: for Republican voters above the economy.
Speaker 8: What is it here? Same thing here.
Speaker 3: We are up closer to the Canadian border again, and
Speaker 3: immigration is the number one.
Speaker 8: Rations and national issue.
Speaker 11: And with immigration, it's a fear of crime, it's a
Speaker 11: fear of violence, it's a fear of drugs, ventanyl. Immigration
Speaker 11: is a sign that we've lost control. So don't look
Speaker 11: at it as immigration.
Speaker 8: They're from.
Speaker 11: Look at what America is losing in the process. And
Speaker 11: that's the genesism, immigration, Do we have control of our borders?
Speaker 11: Do we have control of our citizenry? And where's what
Speaker 11: does his indicate for America going forward?
Speaker 6: Well, we know that the immigration issue is one that
Speaker 6: a lot of voters aren't satisfied with the performance of
Speaker 6: President Biden or even Congress for that matter, on the
Speaker 6: issue of the border. Just on the subject of the
Speaker 6: incumbent president, though obviously we mentioned Dean Phillips, who is
Speaker 6: on the ballot here in New Hampshire, the incumbent president
Speaker 6: is not and there is a writing campaign for him.
Speaker 6: There also was news yesterday of a deep fake, an
Speaker 6: AI generated voice of Biden that was making robocalls to
Speaker 6: people telling them to save their vote for November. Have
Speaker 6: we really started to properly think about the way that
Speaker 6: deep Fake's misinformation could impact this selection?
Speaker 11: And I apologize for coughing, but you just upset me
Speaker 11: and so now you're getting the physical reaction.
Speaker 8: We've waited too long. Yes, this is a problem.
Speaker 11: It's going to become a crisis, and I'm going to
Speaker 11: get this out if it kills me. We have to
Speaker 11: study this, We have to figure this out because people
Speaker 11: are going to start to change their votes and change
Speaker 11: their behavior if they can't even trust what they're being told.
Speaker 11: And that's what's happening right now. We already have given
Speaker 11: up on politics. We've given up on so much in
Speaker 11: the news medium, and now that we have AI that's
Speaker 11: having a negative impact. This should scare every viewer, every listener,
Speaker 11: because once again we are losing control. And that's my
Speaker 11: greatest fear. That we no longer think that we're in
Speaker 11: charge of our democracy, no longer think that the public
Speaker 11: determines the outcome of the elections. We don't trust the
Speaker 11: results on election day. I've been frightened before, but this
Speaker 11: scares the hell out of me. And by the way,
Speaker 11: notice that my voice is cleared up because I even
Speaker 11: think there's been divine intervention. Of all the things I
Speaker 11: could say on this show, there's nothing more important that
Speaker 11: we If we lose the faith, trust, and a sense
Speaker 11: of control over our destiny in this country, we will
Speaker 11: lose everything. And that's what I'm most concerned about over
Speaker 11: the next ten months.
Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us again. We want to hear
Speaker 3: from you as we move on to South Carolina, but
Speaker 3: we appreciate your view. Frank, Let's always here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: It's good to see you in New Hamplet.
Speaker 8: It's an honor to be on this show.
Speaker 3: Thank you, sir. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions as
Speaker 3: we drive forward with more voices from New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple.
Speaker 2: CarPlay and then roun with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions as we bring you
Speaker 3: special coverage from New Hampshire. It's Primary day. Voting is
Speaker 3: underway and there's been a lot of door knocking over
Speaker 3: the past couple of days, certainly for Nicky Haley on
Speaker 3: Behalf of the Americans for Prosperity. This group AFP has
Speaker 3: been knocking on tens of thousands of doors to try
Speaker 3: to make a difference in a race that appears to
Speaker 3: be leaning towards Donald Trump. And we're going to speak
Speaker 3: now with someone who's been right in the middle of it,
Speaker 3: Tracy Schmidt, speaking for AFP Action. Tracy, It's good to
Speaker 3: have you here. Do you have a final number on
Speaker 3: how many doors you knocked on behalf of Nicky Haley.
Speaker 12: Well, it's and county.
Speaker 13: We're still knocking on doors because we understand New Hampshire
Speaker 13: is an unusually engaged electorate who really is going to
Speaker 13: continue to listen and open to change their mind right
Speaker 13: until they walk in and place that ballad.
Speaker 12: So I think we're up over one hundred thousand.
Speaker 13: I know we've made like almost six hundred and fifty
Speaker 13: thousand contacts in New Hampshire to talk to folks about
Speaker 13: Nicki Haley and why she's the only candidate that can
Speaker 13: beat Joe Biden. So we've certainly been out there. We've
Speaker 13: got almost I think two hundred people canvassing the state
Speaker 13: and really making that case to voters.
Speaker 6: Well, how many of those door knocks than Tracy do
Speaker 6: you think are actually going to turn into votes in
Speaker 6: a polling booth? I know Americans for Prosperity has had
Speaker 6: suggested that there would be a higher turnout than we heard,
Speaker 6: even from New Hampshire. Secretary of State David Scanlon told
Speaker 6: Joe yesterday three hundred and twenty two thousand is what
Speaker 6: he expects. Do you expect still that it will be
Speaker 6: higher based on what you're seeing early on, Well.
Speaker 13: We're expecting in the Secretary of State then clear they're
Speaker 13: expecting a record turnout. So I don't know how much
Speaker 13: higher you can get than a record turnout. But look,
Speaker 13: we got involved and we decided to endorse the Kye
Speaker 13: Haley and really engage in a presidential primary for the
Speaker 13: first time ever because.
Speaker 12: We knew we could make a difference.
Speaker 13: We've seen from the data that we've collected I think
Speaker 13: six million voters we've collected critical data about and these
Speaker 13: are voters that we know are maybe have voted in
Speaker 13: a general but maybe not a primary. We have several
Speaker 13: different strategies, but we understood that this is somewhere we
Speaker 13: can make it differs.
Speaker 12: And we've heard from voters loud and clear they weren't
Speaker 12: happy with the choice between Biden and Trump.
Speaker 13: So we've had we go and have those conversations, hear
Speaker 13: from them, and.
Speaker 12: I mean, we're seeing momentum.
Speaker 13: And what was interesting in terms of a lot of
Speaker 13: the folks we've talked to is they were responsive SNICKI Haley.
Speaker 13: They wanted to learn more about her policy and two
Speaker 13: thirds of even Trump voters and this is kind of nationally.
Speaker 13: We found understood he had electability and baggage issues, so
Speaker 13: we saw a real opportunity there to make a difference
Speaker 13: and really change the trajectory in our country.
Speaker 3: I want to know what happens when you knock on
Speaker 3: doors in an environment like this in a twenty twenty
Speaker 3: four campaign, when there's such a lack of trust and institutions,
Speaker 3: there's so much division vitriol when it comes to people's
Speaker 3: views on politics, and you're knocking on someone's door to
Speaker 3: give them the pitch on a candidate, what do you
Speaker 3: tend to receive when the door opens.
Speaker 13: Well, look, obviously different people are more kind of open
Speaker 13: to this communication. But what's interesting about AFP is because
Speaker 13: we have a permanent grassroots organization, a lot of these
Speaker 13: folks in New Hampshire, they understand we've been on the ground,
Speaker 13: we've been fighting for policies, we've been engaged on the issues,
Speaker 13: so that I think also gives us a leg up.
Speaker 13: And then we have that built in credibility with the
Speaker 13: voter and we're reaching out to people that we believe
Speaker 13: we can make a difference and are going to be
Speaker 13: receptive to our issue and receptive to the idea of
Speaker 13: an alternative.
Speaker 6: Do you fully expect we only have about a minute left,
Speaker 6: but to take this effort to South Carolina, Tracy, We're already.
Speaker 12: In South Carolina. We've been in South Carolina in some
Speaker 12: of these other early states for money.
Speaker 6: You'll stay there no matter the result.
Speaker 13: Today, we're as long as there's a path, a clear path,
Speaker 13: or a path for her nomination, we're absolutely going to
Speaker 13: be engaged.
Speaker 12: Nikka Haley has.
Speaker 13: Been clear she's got an ad by launching in South
Speaker 13: Carolina tomorrow, So New Hampshire is important. But what again,
Speaker 13: what makes our organization unique is we have the ability
Speaker 13: to play the long game and the resources to say
Speaker 13: in this thing.
Speaker 12: And we didn't expect this to end in January.
Speaker 13: That's been obviously something that national medias like to talk up.
Speaker 12: I feel like there's this there's this eagerness to put
Speaker 12: a bow on this thing right out of Iowa. But
Speaker 12: that was never our expectation.
Speaker 6: All right, Tracy, thank you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 6: We appreciated Tracy Schmidt joining us as a spokesperson for
Speaker 6: AFP Action