1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host JJ zacheris J 2 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: J zacher reeveon what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen in 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: this episode ten to seventy five of the Late Round 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. First off, it 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: feels good to be back. Feels great to be back. Second, 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: wide receivers really sucked in fantasy football this past year. 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: Now I'll be doing my yearly episodes on the things 8 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: I got right and the things that I got wrong next, 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: but I need to start this offseason with an episode 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: on what I think was the biggest storyline in fantasy 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: football this past year. Wide receivers were really, really bad. 12 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: It's something that I brought up on the show periodically 13 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,480 Speaker 1: during the season when I'd make my weekly rankings. Wide 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: receiver was always borderline depressing. There were like eight good 15 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: players who he cared about, and then there were just 16 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: a giant group of guys of like twenty to thirty 17 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: of them who could be mixed around. There wasn't much 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: stability in pretability at the wide receiver position, and end 19 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: of season data shows that too. In twenty twenty five, 20 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: wide receivers in some scored the third fewest amount of 21 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: PPR points that we've seen since twenty eleven. Perhaps what's 22 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: more interesting is that when you tally up all the 23 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: running back, wide receiver, and tight end PPR points, wide 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 1: receivers made up about forty six percent of that total. 25 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: That was the lowest that we've seen since twenty eleven 26 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: by a full percentage point. So when we look at 27 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 1: the number of Fantasy points scored by non quarterbacks, wide 28 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: receivers scored their lowest proportion of that pie in the 29 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: last fifteen years. You can see this on the individual level. Two, 30 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: if you look only at relevant weeks, so you remove 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: the final game of the season and you use a 32 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: minimum threshold of seven games played. We had thirteen wide 33 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: receivers get to fourteen or more PPR points per game 34 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. That was the second lowest mark 35 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: since twenty eleven. In twenty twenty four, that number was 36 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: twenty six, double what we saw in twenty twenty five. 37 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: When it came to sixteen or more PPR points per game, 38 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: we had eight of those players in twenty twenty five. 39 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, that number was thirteen, and since 40 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:12,119 Speaker 1: twenty eleven, the average has been twelve point four. It's 41 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: not until you get to eighteen plus and twenty plus 42 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: points per game where you start to see some normalization. 43 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: The super elite wide receivers they existed in twenty twenty five. 44 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: We had six of them with eighteen ppero points per 45 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: game or more. We had two of them with twenty 46 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: or more points per game. So to put all of 47 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: that another way, wide receivers didn't score a lot of 48 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 1: fantasy points in total last year, but we did still 49 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: have elite wide receivers in fantasy football. It was mostly 50 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: that next group that really suffered. The obvious question now 51 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: is why. There are a number of directions that we 52 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: can go with that question. Were there more wide receiver 53 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 1: injuries among the elite players, leaving less elite talent to 54 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: score points? Did that next tier of wide receivers just 55 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: not play very well? Did they just have a weird season? 56 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: From like a touchdown standpoint? Has something fun fundamentally changed 57 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: with the way offenses are running in the NFL? Now? 58 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: There might be at least something to that injury thing. 59 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: If you look at top ten, top twenty, and top 60 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: thirty wide receivers by ADP and focus only on relevant 61 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: games again, removing that final week of the season because 62 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 1: a lot of players rest. The twenty twenty five season 63 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: was below averaging games played in each of those groups. 64 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: When compared to all seasons since twenty fourteen, top ten 65 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,239 Speaker 1: wide receivers by ADP averaged thirteen point three games played. 66 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: That's driven largely by Malik Neighbors being out. That was 67 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: the fourth lowest mark out of those twelve seasons. When 68 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: looking at top twenty wide receivers, it was actually the 69 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: absolute lowest. That's because Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, 70 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: and Mike Evans all missed significant time, and then among 71 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: top thirty wide receivers were back to fourth lowest. And 72 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: keep in mind the NFL season has one extra game 73 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: these days, So could injuries be playing some role in 74 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: the low wide receiver scoring last year? Yeah, probably some role. 75 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: When players of a decent caliber get hurt and fearier 76 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: players are gonna have to step in and fill that void, 77 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: and that's not easy. Just look at the Jets when 78 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson went down. But that's not everything. To me. 79 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: The injury stuff is just a small piece of the puzzle. 80 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: Let's shift back to production. For a second, I already 81 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,799 Speaker 1: mentioned how wide receivers scored the lowest proportion of points 82 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: that we've seen since at least twenty eleven. They also 83 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: saw their second lowest target share during that timeframe. Why 84 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: not set a target share just above fifty eight percent 85 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. In twenty twenty four, that number 86 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 1: was two percentage points higher the year prior, almost the 87 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: exact same. We haven't had a target share this lower 88 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: wide receiver since twenty seventeen. Naturally, a lower target shair 89 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: means fewer targets, fewer receptions, fewer yards, and fewer touchdowns. 90 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: Just naturally, touchdowns drive this game, and they can be volatile. 91 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: So that's another place to look with this wide receiver 92 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: season and how weird it was. And yes, wide receivers 93 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: they scored fewer touchdowns than normal in twenty twenty five. 94 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: In fact, their fifty eight percent receiving touchdown share was 95 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: almost nine percentage points lower than twenty twenty fours. That's 96 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: objectively pretty nuts. Their touchdown share from twenty twenty five 97 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: was actually the absolute lowest that we've seen since twenty eleven. 98 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: And maybe there's a little favorable regression that's gonna stem 99 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: from this. The thing is, we know wide receiver targets 100 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: were down. Their actual targets per touchdown rate wasn't that 101 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: different from previous seasons, So how wide receivers were converting 102 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: was actually pretty normal in twenty twenty five. They just 103 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: weren't getting the looks that they usually got. The piece 104 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: of information I haven't shared yet that brings a lot 105 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: of this together and takes us down this new rabbit 106 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: hole is how targets were generally distributed in twenty twenty five, 107 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: not just a wide receiver, but at running back and 108 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: tight end two. Like I already said, we saw this 109 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: low of a wide receiver target share back in twenty seventeen. 110 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: The difference in twenty seventeen, though, was that running backs 111 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: were the ones who benefited most from that lack of 112 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: wide receiver target share. For example, back in twenty seventeen, 113 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: when wide receiver target share was the lowest that it's 114 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: been since twenty eleven, running back target shaars were around 115 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: twenty one point six percent. That's the highest mark of 116 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: any season since twenty eleven, meaning those wide receiver targets 117 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: were basically going to the running back position. But this 118 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: past year, running back target share was eighteen percent. That 119 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: was the second lowest running back target chair that we've 120 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: seen since twenty eleven, beating only the twenty twenty four season. 121 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: So the last two years have seen the lowest running 122 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: back target shaars over the last fifteen seasons. There's only 123 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: one position left who can see targets, its tight end, 124 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 1: and that's where this missing target share is going. The 125 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: game of football evolves, offenses tend to do something new, 126 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: Defenses then react to that new trend, and then offenses 127 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: they're forced to find a new way to beat those defenses. 128 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: Over the last handful of years, in order to keep 129 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: up with pass heavy, wide receiver heavy offenses, defenses became 130 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 1: lighter in faster. We see more defensive backs on the 131 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: field to counter the evolved passing concepts that we've seen 132 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: over the last ten to fifteen years. But NFL offenses 133 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: know this, and many of them they've started to run 134 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: out of heavier personnel. If you have versatle tight ends 135 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: who can both block well and catch well, that gives 136 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: offense as an advantage to run the football better and 137 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: take advantage of these defenses. We're really seeing this at 138 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: a macro level, the NFL's pass rate this past year 139 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: was the lowest of any season since at least twenty eleven. 140 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: Last year, it was the second lowest, so we've seen 141 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: the two run heaviest seasons over the last two years. Meanwhile, 142 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: according to Fantasy Life data, the average team ran out 143 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: of twelve personnel two tight end sets at about a 144 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: twenty two point four percent rate in twenty twenty five. 145 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: That was the highest since twenty twenty when this data 146 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: dates back to the twenty twenty four season was at 147 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: twenty one point eight percent. That was the second highest mark. 148 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: All other seasons were under twenty percent. To give you 149 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: some more context around this, last season, seven teams ran 150 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: out of twelve personnel on thirty percent or more of 151 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,679 Speaker 1: their offensive snaps in twenty twenty four. That was five 152 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: teams from twenty twenty through twenty twenty three, So across 153 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: four NFL seasons there were a total of six teams 154 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: who did that a total of them. Last year alone, 155 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: we had seven. When a team runs more twelve personnel, 156 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: it means they're not running as much eleven personnel or 157 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: an offensive grouping with three wide receivers on the field. 158 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 1: Eleven personnel really spiked when Sean McVeigh was introduced to 159 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: the world when he became the Rams head coach back 160 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen, but we've seen eleven personnel usage decline 161 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: over the last couple of seasons. It really declined though 162 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. This past year was exceptionally different. 163 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: According to Fantasy Life data, teams on average ran out 164 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: of eleven personnel on about fifty six fifty seven percent 165 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: of their offensive plays. Just last year that number was 166 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: sixty one percent. That's a pretty big decline. But what's 167 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: kind of interesting here is the frequency in which teams 168 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: ran a lot of eleven personnel. I'm talking like over 169 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: seventy percent of their snaps. Not a single team was 170 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: over that seventy percent mark in twenty twenty five, ten 171 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: of them were over that mark in twenty twenty four, 172 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: and the average from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four 173 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: has been six point eight teams per season hitting an 174 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 1: eleven personnel rate of seventy percent or greater. This year, 175 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: the highest was Tennessee directly at seventy percent. Now, to 176 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 1: be clear, football isn't a game of two personnel groupings. 177 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: Those are just two very very common ones, and they're 178 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: two that can influence this game that we love analyzing, 179 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: which of course is Fantasy football. Think about what this 180 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: shift in personnel really means. Eleven personnel sees three wide 181 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: receivers on the field at once, twelve personnel sees fewer 182 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: wide receivers. So in turn, that would mean that wide 183 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: receivers are generally running fewer routes. And if they're running 184 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 1: fewer routes, they're also scoring fewer Fantasy points. And that's 185 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: generally true. According to PFF eight, a wide receiver saw 186 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: fourteen year low and routes run per drop back this 187 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: past year, so wide receiver route share was at its 188 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: lowest and unsurprisingly, tight end route share was at its 189 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: highest and at least fifteen seasons. Now, we could stop 190 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 1: there and conclude that wide receivers, specifically the non elite ones, 191 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: they were so bad in twenty twenty five because of 192 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: this shift in personnel grouping because they were running fewer routes. 193 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: But there's still a lot more to this story. Not 194 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: only were wide receivers running slightly fewer routes per dropback, 195 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: but they were being targeted at a lower frequency too. 196 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: In fact, their targets per route run rate last year, 197 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: according to PFF data, was the lowest since twenty eleven. Now, 198 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 1: it'd be one thing if they were running fewer routes 199 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: but being targeted at a higher rate than normal, but no, 200 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: it's this compounding factor. They're running slightly fewer routes and 201 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: their targets per route run is also lower. Those two 202 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: things combined can really lower the output for the position. Meanwhile, 203 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: tight ends, as we know, they're already running more routes 204 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: than they have in recent history, and they're also being 205 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: targeted per route run at a slightly above average rate. 206 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: What this tells me is that quarterbacks aren't just throwing 207 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: to tight ends because they're on the field more. That's 208 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: part of it, of course, but because the targets per 209 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: route run rates were what they were, it seems to 210 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: me that quarterbacks might be choosing to throw to tight 211 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 1: ends more. They're not just doing it because it's some 212 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 1: default fantasy points. Data suite offers first read target shair 213 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: and it goes back to twenty twenty one, so the 214 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: last five seasons according to that data, when looking at 215 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: all first read targets among wide receivers and tight ends 216 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: by year. Tight End first read target share was highest 217 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five, So it wasn't just general targets 218 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: going to tight ends. It was the first read for 219 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: some of these quarterbacks. Now, this is something that's a 220 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 1: little bit harder to quantify because I'm not in the 221 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: building with these teams and with these coaching staffs. But 222 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,719 Speaker 1: this is sort of the breakdown of what I think 223 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: is happening for a lot of NFL teams right now, 224 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: or at least what we saw in twenty twenty five. First, 225 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: they're adjusting the defenses have given them. Defenses are lighter, 226 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 1: they're quicker, and teams have gone heavier, and they're running 227 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: the ball more. Not only are they running the ball more, 228 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: though they're doing so effectively. According to some data pulled 229 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: by Late Rounds Brandon Goadula, twenty twenty five was the 230 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: third most efficient season since nineteen ninety nine in rushing 231 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: EPA per rush. Meanwhile, we didn't see that kind of 232 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: jump from a passing efficiency standpoint. In other words, the 233 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: advantage of running the football became better in twenty twenty five. Now, 234 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: another thing to point out here is that two high 235 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: safeties have become dominant in recent history. Defenses are looking 236 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: to prevent those splash plays. That's why we've seen wide 237 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: receiver average up the target drop over the last five 238 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: or six seasons. This could be another reason that quarterbacks 239 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: are opting to go to tight ends more frequently. It's 240 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: not necessarily because wide receivers can't run those shallower routes. 241 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: It's that tight ends are just doing it more often. 242 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 1: And with teams running more twelve personnel, tight ends are 243 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: on the field more so they're getting some of that 244 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 1: lower aid DOT production. So in total, tight ends are 245 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 1: running more routes than usual, and they're being targeted at 246 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: a higher rate per route run, and that's hurting wide 247 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: receivers a lot. In my opinion, what this shift in 248 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: personnel grouping does is two things. Number One, it makes 249 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: lower tiered wide receivers less relevant. If they can't find 250 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: the field, they're not going to score as many fantasy points, 251 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: or even if they're on the field, there's a higher 252 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: chance of them losing targets to a tight end. That 253 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: wouldn't be the case as much for a stud wide 254 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: receiver because stud wide receivers they're gonna get good target 255 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 1: chairs in any environment. But then number two, we know 256 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: that teams are now running the ball more because of 257 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: defensive adjustments and what heavy personnel generally allows you to 258 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: do against those defenses. So even if you have a 259 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: stud wide receiver on a team that runs a lot 260 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,119 Speaker 1: of twelve personnel or a lot of tight end heavy groupings, 261 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: that stud wide receiver may still have a hard time 262 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 1: being a studd in fantasy football because his team isn't 263 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: throwing the ball as much. And this is a huge 264 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: reason we saw what we saw in fantasy football this 265 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: past season. Specifically, it's why we saw such little help 266 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: from wide receivers in the late rounds of our fantasy drafts. 267 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: Think about it. What I'm really saying here is that 268 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: elite wide receivers they're at a premium. With this change 269 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: in the way NFL offenses are running things, we technically 270 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: have fewer wide receivers who are relevant to the game. 271 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty five had the second fewest wide receivers since 272 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: twenty eleven get to a ten percent target chair. It 273 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: tied for the lowest amount of wide receivers getting to 274 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: a fifteen percent target chair. It was below average when 275 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: looking at twenty percent target chair players, and it starts 276 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: to normalize a little bit as you get closer to 277 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: the high twenties. Target chair is going to correlate to 278 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: fantasy success, which means the guys who are actually getting 279 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: those looks, they're the ones separating themselves even more. And 280 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: this shows up an average draft position data too. You 281 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: may think that with wide receivers being worse in fantasy 282 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: that it would mean to wait on the position because 283 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: the position as a whole is scoring less. Now that 284 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: would be valid if every wide receiver was scoring less, 285 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: but that's not the case. What's really bringing this all 286 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: down are the players who were drafted in the late 287 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: single digit rounds and into the double digit rounds of 288 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: your drafts. Fantasy Data's average draft position data goes back 289 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: to twenty fourteen. I use that data to look at 290 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: all wide receivers who were drafted after pick eighty four, 291 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: which represents the end of the seventh round in the 292 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: twelve team fantasy draft this past year. The twenty twenty 293 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: five season saw the lowest rate of wide receivers coming 294 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: from those rounds who finished top twenty four, Top thirty, 295 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: and top thirty six of the position. I mean, guys, 296 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: we had one top twenty four wide receiver in PPR 297 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: points per game come from the eighth rounder later last 298 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: year one. It was Wandel Robinson. He probably wouldn't even 299 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: finish that high had the league neighbor's not gotten hurt. 300 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: Now keep in mind, I'm referring to drafted players here. 301 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: This goes for all seasons analyzed. Christian Watson, Michael Wilson. 302 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: They did sneak into the top twenty four, but they 303 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: weren't drafted. But that happens in other seasons too, that's 304 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: not unique to twenty twenty five. The fact of the 305 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: matter is that these secondary wide receivers, they weren't nearly 306 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: as useful as we've seen in previous seasons. Maybe you 307 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: could say the market's getting smarter and all the good 308 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: wide receivers are just drafted early now, but that still 309 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: results in the same thing when it comes to our 310 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: draft strategies moving forward, and that's elevating the truly truly 311 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: elite wide receivers in this game. Like this all doesn't 312 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: mean that we should avoid wide receivers in the early 313 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: parts of our draft just because the wide receiver position 314 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: in total wasn't very good. It means we probably shouldn't 315 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 1: rely heavily on wide receivers drafted in the latter parts 316 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: of our draft. NFL teams are running the ball more, 317 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: and they're running the ball more out of heavier personnel. 318 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: That means fewer wide receivers are going to be on 319 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: the field, and when fewer wide outs are on the field, 320 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: it means we have fewer relevant ones to choose from 321 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: in fantasy football. There are fewer chances to hit on 322 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: a middle and late round pick, and that's only reinforced 323 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: by the idea that teams are opting to throw to 324 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: tight ends more frequently. Having an above average wide receiver 325 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: on your fan n team back in twenty fifteen twenty 326 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: sixteen could have fielded a pretty nice fantasy season in 327 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: the right environment. But now those above average wide receivers 328 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 1: by talent, they're at risk of losing routes and losing 329 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: target share to tight ends. That makes the stable pieces, 330 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: the ones we feel really good about seeing a lot 331 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: of volume. That makes them more valuable, not less valuable, 332 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: because they're unicorns targets run this game. For wide receivers. 333 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: Volume is everything for a wide receiver to see volume, 334 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: he either needs to have a high target share, playing 335 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: an offense that throws the ball a lot, or both. 336 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: With the NFL's offensive environment changing the way it is, 337 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,959 Speaker 1: the elite wide receivers are still seeing high target shairs. 338 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: In fact, you could argue the elite wide receivers are 339 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: seeing even higher target shairs than normal because in heavier 340 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: personnel groupings, they're competing for targets with tight ends instead 341 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: of other wide receivers. That makes it easier for an 342 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: elite wide receiver to see a target on a given 343 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: dropback because he's easily the best pass catcher on the field. 344 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 1: That's just not the case for a more mediocre wide receiver. 345 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: The downside of that is passing volume teams are naturally 346 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: gonna run the ball more if their formation includes these 347 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: bigger bodied players and if they want to beat the 348 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: ordinary defense in today's NFL. So the players who are 349 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: being hurt most they're the ones who aren't quite good 350 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: enough to see an elite target shair because chances are 351 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: their offense isn't as pass heavy as it was three 352 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: or four years ago. And that's why the fantasy football 353 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: wide receiver two is dying it's becoming flatter. Teams are heavier, 354 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: they're running more and tight ends. They're capable enough to 355 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 1: take both route share and target share away from the 356 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: more average to above average wide receivers. Meanwhile, the elite guys, 357 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: they're sticking around and look guys. Admittedly, a lot of 358 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: this stuff has been happening and changing over the last 359 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: few years, but twenty twenty five was a huge shift 360 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: in all of it. Whether you look at touchdown share, 361 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 1: tight end target share, twelve per or snel usage, all 362 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: of it was a pretty big shift. But in my opinion, 363 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: it's gonna be pretty difficult for defenses to fully adjust 364 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: in just one off season. Maybe this is some apex 365 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 1: and things revert back to like twenty twenty four levels 366 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty six, but even if that's the case, 367 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: we should probably conclude the same thing. Elite wide receivers 368 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: are really valuable in fantasy football if you can find them, 369 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: and that's a big if because there's not a ton 370 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: of them right now, and then that next tier of 371 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 1: player it's gonna have a hard time differentiating itself from 372 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 1: the rest of the pack. That's it for today's show, 373 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: though thanks to all of you for listening. If you 374 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure 375 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: you are bushretting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can 376 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter 377 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. This first 378 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,239 Speaker 1: week back is gonna look a little bit different than 379 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: the rest of the podcast schedule this offseason. Usually in 380 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: the off season I alternate Fridays with the Mailbag and 381 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: then Perspectives. But this Friday, you'll get an episode of 382 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: me going over the things that I got wrong this 383 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,719 Speaker 1: past year to dig into my process to see if 384 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,719 Speaker 1: I was a moron or if I just got unlucky, 385 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: and then a week from now I'll do the same 386 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 1: thing with the things that I got right. But thanks 387 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: for listening to everyone. I'll catch you later this week.