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Speaker 1: Hi everyone, I'm Kitty Couric and this is next question.

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Speaker 1: What was that song Maureen McGovern sang in the Poseidon Adventure?

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Speaker 1: Am I dating myself?

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Speaker 2: This got to be a morning of if we can

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Speaker 2: hold on?

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Speaker 1: Then This isn't exactly the morning after, but it is

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Speaker 1: the night after the twenty twenty four presidential election, and

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Speaker 1: I'm talking and debriefing with my good friend Brian Goldsmith. Brian,

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Speaker 1: I am so happy to have you here. There's so

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Speaker 1: much I want to talk to you about what happened,

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Speaker 1: how the country feels, and where we're going with the

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Speaker 1: future Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: So good evening, good evening, not much to discuss. Kind

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Speaker 2: of a slow week, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, really, let's you know. I want to dis first

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Speaker 1: start by asking your general reaction to this massive Trump victory.

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Speaker 1: I think people thought it was going to be very close,

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Speaker 1: and maybe you're going to tell me it was close,

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Speaker 1: But when you look at that electoral map, you're like,

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Speaker 1: holy shit, that's a lot of red.

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Speaker 2: What happened, Well, we may have overcomplicated this election. You

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Speaker 2: had an incumbent president with a forty percent approval rating.

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Speaker 2: You had sixty five seventy percent of the country saying

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Speaker 2: we're on the wrong track. Stuff costs about twenty percent

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Speaker 2: more than it did before COVID, and people were broadly

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Speaker 2: dissatisfied with the status quo and the party in power,

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Speaker 2: so they voted for the out party. Any political scientist

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Speaker 2: would tell you that that is the most normal thing

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Speaker 2: in the world. But of course Donald Trump is the

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Speaker 2: least normal candidate imaginable, and given all of the as

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Speaker 2: he would say, huge baggage that he's bringing into this

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Speaker 2: race and now into the White House. I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of Democrats, including me, thought this time would be different,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that a lot of pundits and political

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Speaker 1: experts such as yourself, Brian, thought that again his lunacy

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Speaker 1: would outweigh people's pain at the pump and the grocery store, etc.

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Speaker 2: Well, we thought a couple of things. We thought the

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Speaker 2: load was just too much for voters to bear at

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Speaker 2: a certain point, the load of Trump right, all his problems.

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Speaker 2: You know. We saw a version of this in North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: where people wanted to vote for change. The state voted

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Speaker 2: Republican for president, and yet they elected the Democrat Josh

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Speaker 2: Stein as governor by a pretty big margin, because.

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Speaker 1: Well, fairness that his opponent was insane. If Mark Robinson,

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Speaker 1: if hadn't been revealed that he was called himself a

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Speaker 1: black hitler and liked to watch transgender people have sex,

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Speaker 1: you know that was part of his choice in pornography.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's just an example of the load is too

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Speaker 2: much to bear. So the load was too much for

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Speaker 2: voters to bear with Mark Robinson. I think democrats thought,

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Speaker 2: just as Mark Robinson was ultimately rendered unelectable based on

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Speaker 2: his problems, Donald Trump would be rendered unelectable based on

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Speaker 2: his problems. And yeah, he didn't call himself a black Nazi,

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Speaker 2: but he did try to overturn a free and fair

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Speaker 2: election and instigate a violent insurrection. So you know, Potato Patado.

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Speaker 1: Well he's done a lot more than just that massive thing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you just look at the last ten

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Speaker 1: days of the campaign, and we've talked about this Brian,

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Speaker 1: it seemed he was making no effort, as Maureen Dowd

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Speaker 1: wrote her Nerd column, to expand his base, to widen

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Speaker 1: the net, to get any voter he could, and he

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Speaker 1: just drilled down on this sort of obnoxious browie. I

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Speaker 1: can say anything and there are no repercussions unhinged kind

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Speaker 1: of weird behavior from Philating. I never knew that was

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Speaker 1: the verb. By the way, I learned something this week

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Speaker 1: filating a microphone and you know, making all these disgusting,

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Speaker 1: gross comments called, you know.

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Speaker 2: Russ should be shot, saying that his opponent should be arrested.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Nancy Pelosi is a bitch, Kamala is trash,

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Speaker 1: you know, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and more seriously, you know, promising all sorts of

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Speaker 2: illegal actions as president. And so you know, to step

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Speaker 2: back to answer your question. Yeah, we thought, despite broad

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Speaker 2: dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, that Harris had

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Speaker 2: run a pretty good campaign. She tried to position herself

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Speaker 2: as a change candidate. She closed some of the gap,

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Speaker 2: a lot of the gap on handling the economy, and that,

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Speaker 2: just as in twenty twenty two, Democrats would overperform because

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Speaker 2: of the Trump factor. And what I think we know

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Speaker 2: pretty definitively now is that Trump is a unique political

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Speaker 2: animal who is kind of untouchable to his supporters no

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Speaker 2: matter what he says or does, and brings out a

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Speaker 2: pretty big coalition to the polls no matter what. Now,

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Speaker 2: his coalition this time is actually pretty different than his

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Speaker 2: coalition in twenty sixteen. And we'll get into all of that,

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Speaker 2: But to your original point, it was a broad based

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Speaker 2: victory in the Swing States. It was a series of

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Speaker 2: narrow victories, consistent victories across the Swing States. But he

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Speaker 2: wasn't winning the Swing States by five or ten points.

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Speaker 2: He was winning them by one or two points. He

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Speaker 2: had bigger gains in places where the campaign wasn't actually

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Speaker 2: being fought between Harris and Trump on the airwaves, but

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Speaker 2: the whole country did seem to move in his direction.

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Speaker 1: There is so much to unpack, Brian. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the constituencies that came out and supported Donald Trump. He

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Speaker 1: did surprisingly well or better. I guess it's all relative,

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Speaker 1: and you can put this into context for us with

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Speaker 1: a lot of groups. Let's first talk about black voters,

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Speaker 1: black women. I think ninety percent came out for Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: Is that correct?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, about ninety percent, maybe eighty nine or eighty eight,

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Speaker 2: but pretty close to that.

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Speaker 1: And that held steady correct for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Well, we saw a pretty significant deterioration among black men.

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Speaker 2: And I should just say at the outset that this

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Speaker 2: data is a little bit early. It still needs to

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Speaker 2: cook for a couple of days, a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: These numbers will change a bit. But directionally, we're talking

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Speaker 2: about stuff based on the exit polling that is conducted,

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Speaker 2: you know, right after the election. So to answer your question,

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Speaker 2: black men, Harris probably only won them by about fifty

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Speaker 2: six points. Clinton won them in twenty sixteen by sixty

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Speaker 2: nine points. Biden won them by about sixty points, So

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Speaker 2: you can see the line going down a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Black women, there was some deterioration too. Clinton won them

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Speaker 2: by ninety points, a nine zero point margin, went down

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Speaker 2: to eighty one points under Biden, went back up a

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Speaker 2: little bit for Harris, another black woman, that makes sense,

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Speaker 2: to an eighty four point margin. But the significant deterioration

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Speaker 2: was among black men. And where I'm sure you're going next,

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Speaker 2: Latino men.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about Latino men and compare what they

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Speaker 1: did in twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is huge, This is a historic realignment of

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Speaker 2: Latino voters. I think political scientus and historians are going

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Speaker 2: to be talking about this for a long time because

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Speaker 2: what's happening, and it's consistent with the sort of the

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Speaker 2: broader story of America. As immigrant groups settle here, have children,

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Speaker 2: have grandchildren, they assimilate, and the second generation, in the

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Speaker 2: third generation start to vote like white people. And so

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Speaker 2: you are seeing non college educated Latinos begin to vote

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Speaker 2: like non college educated white voters. And that is bad

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Speaker 2: news for Democrats because non college educated white people are

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Speaker 2: at the core of the Trump coalition. So let's go

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Speaker 2: back to twenty sixteen again. The first time Trump was

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Speaker 2: on the ballot, Hillary Clinton won Latino men by thirty

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Speaker 2: one points. Then Joe Biden won Latino men by a

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Speaker 2: little bit less, by twenty three points. What happened this year,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump won Latino men probably by about a dozen points.

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Speaker 2: That is like a thirty five point swing in four years.

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Speaker 2: And we can talk about some of the factors that

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Speaker 2: might have gone into that, but it's just stunning. And yes,

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Speaker 2: her advantage among Latina women narrowed as well, to about

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Speaker 2: half of Biden's margin from four years ago.

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Speaker 1: So as you say, that's a significant shift that's going

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Speaker 1: to be studied by historians, but it's not just a

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Speaker 1: generational explanation or assimilation. Are there other reasons for this

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Speaker 1: gravitational pull that Latinos had and Latina's had toward Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: We're moving toward educational stratification is the fancy term, but

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Speaker 2: sort of sorting in our politics where we have one

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Speaker 2: coalition for the college educated and another coalition for working

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Speaker 2: class voters who don't have a college degree. That is

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Speaker 2: the single best way to figure out today whether someone's

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Speaker 2: going to vote for a day Democrat or Republican. Do

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Speaker 2: they have a college or an advanced degree. The vast

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Speaker 2: majority of Latinos do not. They are increasingly starting to

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Speaker 2: vote based on cultural and economic factors more like other

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Speaker 2: voters without a college degree, and I think Trump really

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Speaker 2: hammered home a number of messages that resonated with that group.

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Speaker 2: They feel the pain of higher grocery costs, higher gas

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Speaker 2: prices like other working class people do, because they're living

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Speaker 2: paycheck to paycheck, and it's not just an inconvenience, it's

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Speaker 2: a disaster in their lives when those costs go up

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Speaker 2: so substantially. And on cultural issues, they've always been more

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Speaker 2: culturally conservative despite voting heavily Democratic, and so you know,

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Speaker 2: on issues like transgender care, which the Trump campaign just

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Speaker 2: hammered for the last two months, they sided with the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about college educated Latinos. When you look

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Speaker 1: at that group, I don't know if you have numbers

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Speaker 1: for them, but does it change dramatically and does that

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Speaker 1: college education mitigate some of the cultural issues that make

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Speaker 1: them tend to be more conservative.

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Speaker 2: So it's interesting what the exit poll provides is voters

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Speaker 2: of color, black and brown with a college degree versus without,

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Speaker 2: and that the difference is really striking. Harris won voters

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Speaker 2: of color who are college graduates by thirty three points.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Voters of color with no degree, she won by a

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Speaker 2: narrower margin, by like twenty nine or thirty points, But

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Speaker 2: that's largely because you have, you know, black voters in there.

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Speaker 2: I think AAPI is included in there. I wish they

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Speaker 2: broke out just the Latinos because I think you would see,

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Speaker 2: you know, you would see a pretty dramatic difference.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about white women. Hillary Clinton did not win

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Speaker 1: the election. One might argue, I'm wrong about this, Brian

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Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen because the majority of white women voted

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Speaker 1: for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're right about that, but white women writ large

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Speaker 2: have always been a Republican constituency. They voted for Romney,

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Speaker 2: of Robama, for McCain of Robama, et cetera. People thought,

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Speaker 2: because Hillary was a white woman, she would narrow that

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Speaker 2: gap a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: But did she.

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Speaker 2: No, she didn't. She basically landed where, you know, where

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Speaker 2: Biden did, and that was a you know, that was

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Speaker 2: a significant problem. But again you'll see a huge education gap.

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Speaker 2: I mean, one of the few areas, maybe the only

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Speaker 2: area where Harris grew Democratic support compared to sixteen and

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Speaker 2: twenty is among white women with a college degree. White

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Speaker 2: women with a college degree were like Kamala Harris's base.

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Speaker 2: She won them by sixteen points compared to Biden winning

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Speaker 2: them by nine Hillary winning them by about that margin.

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Speaker 2: But among white women out a degree, zero improvement. Despite

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Speaker 2: Harris being you know, only the second woman to be

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Speaker 2: nominated for president, she basically performed the same among that

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Speaker 2: group as Biden did four years ago and as Hillary

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Speaker 2: did eight years ago.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to white women with a college degree,

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Speaker 1: if rove Way had not been overturned, do you think

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Speaker 1: she would have fared as well with that demographic.

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Speaker 2: No, I think Dobbs was a clearly a factor powering

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Speaker 2: overperformance among that group, which is strongly pro choice. I

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Speaker 2: think that improved her standing among men with a college

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Speaker 2: degree as well, but it just wasn't enough. You know,

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Speaker 2: you have states like Florida where there was an abortion

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Speaker 2: referendum on the ballot. Fifty seven percent of Floridians voted

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Speaker 2: the pro choice position and Harris got just shell act

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Speaker 2: in Florida, So a lot of voters, I think was

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Speaker 2: twenty eight percent of pro choice voters according to the

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Speaker 2: exit polling we have voted for Trump. So clearly that

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Speaker 2: was just not the most important issue to them.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about young people because I read an article

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Speaker 1: before we hopped on about gen Z not really coming

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Speaker 1: out for Kamala Harris. Do you have any numbers about

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Speaker 1: young voters and what they ended up doing well.

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Speaker 2: There are two ways of looking at these groups. There's

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Speaker 2: the turnout that is how many people were actually showing

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Speaker 2: up to vote, and there's the share that is what

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Speaker 2: percentage of the voters who do turn out of somebody

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Speaker 2: getting And the turnout was clearly not as big as

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Speaker 2: what Democrats were hoping for and expecting. They thought that

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Speaker 2: Trump would drive historic turnout and that doesn't seem to

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Speaker 2: have happened. And then secondly, Harris performed substantially worse than

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden did and worse than Hillary Clinton did among

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Speaker 2: a teen to twenty nine year olds. She probably only

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Speaker 2: won them by about ten or eleven points. Biden won

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Speaker 2: them by twenty four points four years ago. Hillary won

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Speaker 2: them by almost twenty points eight years ago. She made

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Speaker 2: up for that to a degree by overperforming among seniors.

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Speaker 2: There was probably a tie among senior citizens, whereas Trump

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Speaker 2: won voters over sixty five in both sixteen and twenty,

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Speaker 2: but the change just wasn't nearly as dramatic.

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Speaker 1: This is what Peter Hanby wrote in Puck Kamala's Wasted Youth. Sure,

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Speaker 1: young white dudes broke for Trump, but Harris also underperformed

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Speaker 1: with almost every kind of young person, young white women,

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Speaker 1: young black voters, and young Latinos.

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Speaker 2: Why well, we're going to be sorting through that for

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Speaker 2: a while. I would say a couple of things. One,

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Speaker 2: if you're a young person, you're just starting out economically.

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Speaker 2: The majority of young people in the country still do

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Speaker 2: not have college degrees, and so so they feel stressed

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Speaker 2: and burdened by higher costs. They're saddled with more student debt.

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Speaker 2: And even though Joe Biden did a lot of stuff

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Speaker 2: around student debt. I don't think they felt like their

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Speaker 2: economic pain was substantially alleviated. There may have been some

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Speaker 2: backlash to Israel Gaza, although we can talk about that

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Speaker 2: a little more. I'm still skeptical that that was a

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Speaker 2: high priority for a lot of voters. And I also

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Speaker 2: think there wasn't like a clear agenda that Harris was

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Speaker 2: presenting to them about how young people's lives were going

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Speaker 2: to get better and how her administration would represent a

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Speaker 2: change versus the last four years the Biden administration.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot to unpack and just that answer,

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Speaker 1: but just staying with young people, Biden won eighteen to

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Speaker 1: twenty nine year olds by a massive twenty five point margin.

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Speaker 1: She won them only by thirteen points, so that's a

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Speaker 1: significant drop.

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Speaker 2: That margin was cut in half.

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Speaker 1: If you want to get smarter every morning with a

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Speaker 1: breakdown of the news and fascinating takes on health and

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Speaker 1: wellness and pop culture, sign up for our daily newsletter

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Speaker 1: wake Up Call by going to Katiecuric dot com. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the Middle East, And as you said, I

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Speaker 1: think the economy in most polls was the top priority

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Speaker 1: for young people, but Obviously, we had a lot of

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Speaker 1: controversy following the attack on Israel of October seventh, with

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Speaker 1: protests on college campuses as the war continued, people protesting

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Speaker 1: the number of civilian casualties and deaths in Gaza. How

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Speaker 1: did Kamala Harris do navigating that? Because I feel like

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Speaker 1: she tried to express her support of Israel but also

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Speaker 1: her sympathy to the people in Gaza, and it turns out,

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Speaker 1: it seems to me, Brian, she pissed both groups off.

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Speaker 1: There was that abandon Harris campaign in Michigan. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure how significant that ended up being in the vote.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about that and then,

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Speaker 1: and maybe it's because I live in New York and

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Speaker 1: follow a lot of Jewish people on Instagram, and you

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Speaker 1: know many Jewish people, and if you're Jewish, so you

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Speaker 1: probably talked to people who felt this way supported Trump

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Speaker 1: because they felt he would be better for Israel, and

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Speaker 1: they became single issue voters on that. So how much

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Speaker 1: did this trying to please everyone in a way hurt

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris in your view?

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I think she was probably expressing

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Speaker 2: what her real position is. You know, for twenty years.

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has been a pretty stalwart ally of Israel

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Speaker 2: and Jewish Americans. Her relationship with Jews in the Bay

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Speaker 2: Area goes back decades. She actually took her Jewish husband

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Speaker 2: on his first trip to Israel after she became a senator.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's real. And I also think that

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Speaker 2: the Biden Harris administration had real issues with the way

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Speaker 2: that Biebe was prosecuting the war and not developing a

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Speaker 2: clear goal and an endgame. That said, I don't think

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Speaker 2: it was a top concern for a large number of voters.

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Speaker 2: The polling was pretty consistent about this. There were a

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Speaker 2: lot of people who were very loud on social media

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Speaker 2: on one side or the other. I think in New York,

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Speaker 2: which is home to the largest Jewish community in the

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Speaker 2: United States, there was clearly deterioration of Harris's position versus

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Speaker 2: Biden four years ago or Clinton eight years ago.

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Speaker 1: In New York City.

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Speaker 2: In New York State, Yeah, New York City and Long

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Speaker 2: Island and and throughout the state. New York City in

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Speaker 2: the suburbs primarily, which is where Jews tend to live,

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Speaker 2: But we don't see evidence of that yet. Nationally, in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: for example, which has a very substantial Jewish community. She

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Speaker 2: seems to have performed about as well as Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: did four years ago. So maybe in the New York

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Speaker 2: media market, the New York echo chamber, this was a

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Speaker 2: bigger deal than it was in California or Pennsylvania, for example.

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Speaker 2: And it's interesting. In the exit polling, they asked the question,

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Speaker 2: is US support for Israel too strong, not strong enough,

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Speaker 2: or about right? Well, sixty one percent of voters thought

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Speaker 2: it was not strong enough or about right. Only thirty

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Speaker 2: one percent, less than a third thought American support for

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Speaker 2: Israel was too strong, and Harris actually won that group

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Speaker 2: by like two to one, By more than two to one.

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Speaker 2: We did see clearly in Michigan in Dearborn, some pockets

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Speaker 2: in certain precincts of Jill Stein's support and a collapse

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Speaker 2: in Harris's support. I don't think it was enough to

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Speaker 2: have made the difference statewide. I also think it's notable

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Speaker 2: that Alyssa Slotkin, who is a pro Israel Jewish woman,

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Speaker 2: was elected to the Senate from Michigan on the same

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Speaker 2: day and the same election when Kamala Harris lost. So

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Speaker 2: if that was the driving issue they wouldn't have voted

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Speaker 2: for Slotkin either, So I'm a little skeptical.

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Speaker 1: Well, did they vote for Slotkin and Dearborn? No?

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Speaker 2: But it was clearly not enough to deprive her of

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Speaker 2: a victory. There were enough Trump Slotkin voters that she

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Speaker 2: was able to overcome that.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about the polls. You and

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Speaker 1: I seemed to talk about the polls every election. Were

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Speaker 1: they accurate? This time?

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Speaker 2: They look pretty accurate, although misleading, which sounds like a

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Speaker 2: contradictory answer. And let me unpack it slightly. What the

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Speaker 2: polls essentially showed in the seven battlegrounds. Again, I don't

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Speaker 2: really care about national polling because this election is fought

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Speaker 2: in seven states, and it's about the electoral college, it's

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Speaker 2: not about the national popular vote. So the best polling

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Speaker 2: was of these seven states, and essentially what it showed

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Speaker 2: was a tie in almost all of these states. And

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Speaker 2: the thing that people often forget about polling is the

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Speaker 2: margin of error applies to each number, not to the

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Speaker 2: margin between the two numbers. So if you see a

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Speaker 2: poll that's one candidate at fifty another candidate at forty eight,

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Speaker 2: with a margin of plus or minus three, you know

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Speaker 2: that means the spread could be fifty three forty five

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Speaker 2: and it would still be statistically the same poll that

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Speaker 2: you're seeing. And so people overread polling, people ascribed polling

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Speaker 2: powers and precision that it doesn't have. And it is

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Speaker 2: also the historical pattern that in the end, presidential elections

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Speaker 2: tend to move one way or the other. That sounds

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Speaker 2: like a very obvious statement, but that is to say,

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Speaker 2: it is very rare that you would have of the

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Speaker 2: seven battlegrounds three going one way, four going the other.

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Speaker 2: It's usually like six to one, seven to zero, because

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Speaker 2: the voters are similar and the undecided usually break kind

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Speaker 2: of in one direction. And that's what we saw here.

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Speaker 2: We saw a pattern of consistent but narrow Trump wins

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Speaker 2: in the battlegrounds. And so, you know, people don't like

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Speaker 2: in Wisconsin right now it's a you know, it's a

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Speaker 2: less than one point Trump win. In Michigan right now,

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Speaker 2: it's a one point and change Trump win. In Pennsylvania

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Speaker 2: it's a one point you know. So these are tiny margins.

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Speaker 2: So you can't say the polling was wrong because this

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Speaker 2: was well within the range of what the polling was showing.

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Speaker 1: There has been a ton of Monday morning, Wednesday morning quarterbacking,

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Speaker 1: and everyone is now setting their sights on the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party and on the way Kamala Harris ran the campaign.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the campaign first, and then we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about the larger Democratic Party. If you were giving Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris feedback or the campaign feedback, what would you tell

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Speaker 1: them they could have done better or differently?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, we're all geniuses in retrospect. And there's

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Speaker 2: a famous JFK story. Right after he won super narrowly

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Speaker 2: in nineteen sixty, Time magazine called him and his advisors

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Speaker 2: chorus skatingly brilliant. I've never heard the word chorus skatingly, Katie.

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Speaker 2: You're kind of a vocab nerd, so you probably have.

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Speaker 1: I've never heard of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I should look it up. I did years ago.

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Speaker 2: And I think it just means like resoundingly impressively something

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Speaker 2: like that. And I'm allowed to swear on this podcast,

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Speaker 2: aren't I?

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Speaker 1: Yes, you are?

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Speaker 2: Brian Okay. Well, apparently what JFK said upon reading the

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Speaker 2: article is he looked up, he smirked, and he said,

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Speaker 2: a couple of votes in the other direction in Texas

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Speaker 2: and Florida, and we'd have all been coruscatingly fucking stupid.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think there's something to that. You're

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Speaker 2: a genius when you win and you're an idiot when

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Speaker 2: you lose. And that having been said, I think the

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Speaker 2: macro thing that the Harris campaign missed was broad dissatisfaction

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Speaker 2: with Biden and the direction of the country. And she

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Speaker 2: never broke from him. She had that horrible moment on

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Speaker 2: the view that played in a thousand Trump commercials about

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Speaker 2: she couldn't think of a thing she'd have done differently,

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Speaker 2: and so she seemed in the end like more of

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Speaker 2: the same. And Trump, for all of his flaws, was

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Speaker 2: the asshole who brought you lower gas and grocery prices,

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Speaker 2: and the change candidate exactly, and the candidate of change.

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Speaker 2: And so if you were to rerun the Harris campaign

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Speaker 2: and just based on what happened, which was Biden dropping

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Speaker 2: out in July and Harris becoming the nominee at that

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Speaker 2: point because there was really no time for a process

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Speaker 2: and she was the sitting vice president and so it

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Speaker 2: couldn't really go to anybody else. She needed to do

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Speaker 2: a couple of things, One more definitively break from the

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Speaker 2: policies and the record of the Biden administration a little tricky,

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Speaker 2: since there's not like a huge historical record of Harris

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Speaker 2: disagreeing with Biden about any of those policies, but at

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Speaker 2: the very least signaling substantively, not just rhetorically, that the

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Speaker 2: next four years would be quite different from the last

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Speaker 2: four years, maybe criticizing Biden on something like waiting too

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Speaker 2: long to lock down the border or waiting too long

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Speaker 2: to pivot to fighting inflation. The second thing is I

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Speaker 2: think she should have pushed off clearly against the far

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Speaker 2: left of the Democratic Party. She never had a sort

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Speaker 2: of Sister Soldia moment, as people described, you know, Bill

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Speaker 2: Clinton standing up to Jesse Jackson or this one rap

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Speaker 2: star in nineteen ninety two. She could have done that

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Speaker 2: on some element of the agenda of the left. She

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Speaker 2: could have said, you know what, I was wrong to

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Speaker 2: say that there should be taxpayer funding of gender reassignment surgery,

435
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: or I was wrong to have taken the position that

436
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: I did on medicare for all or banning fracking, and

437
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: I will never take that position as president. Instead, she

438
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 2: sort of tried to thread the needle. She abandoned those

439
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 2: positions through like statements that are campaign made, but she

440
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: never explained why she abandoned those positions. They just looked

441
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 2: like political expedients. And I think a lot of voters

442
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: believe that in her heart of hearts, she was more

443
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 2: of a kind of left wing Canada. And one thing

444
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 2: we saw on the exit polling is among that critical

445
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 2: group of voters in the middle who thought that both

446
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: Harris and Trump were too extreme. Trump won those voters

447
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 2: by a substantial margin. So she really needed to do

448
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 2: more to push herself to the center.

449
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 1: Why do you think she didn't And do you think

450
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: she was afraid of alienating voters who still had a

451
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: soft spot for Joe Biden and by the way, despite

452
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: his unpopularity. I mean, I think she was legitimately proud

453
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: of some of their accomplishments, you know, the Infrastructure Bill.

454
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: I think she was probably proud of the Chips Act.

455
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 1: They are very theoretical things that obviously you can't measure immediately.

456
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: It's not like paying a lot more for eggs or

457
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: yogurt than you did, you know, a year ago, and

458
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: having to really kind of figure out your household budget.

459
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: But there were some pretty impressive accomplishments, weren't there In

460
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: the Biden administration. I feel like they are really getting

461
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: beaten up, maybe unfairly or am I wrong? No?

462
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 2: I think you're right that there were enormous legislative accomplishments.

463
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 2: I'm just not sure voters really pay attention or care

464
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 2: about those, you know, when the retrospective approval of the

465
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 2: Trump administration is close to fifty and the current approval

466
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 2: of the Biden administration is close to forty. And Trump

467
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: essentially failed on everything as president except a big tax

468
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: cut for big corporations and the wealthy. And Biden had

469
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 2: the best sort of record of legislative success of any

470
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: president since LBJ with infrastructure and the American Rescue Plan

471
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: and the Chips Bill and the Electoral count Act and

472
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 2: just one thing after another. He was like a magician

473
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 2: dealing with a very closely divided Congress, getting things done,

474
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: getting big things done. You know. I think a lot

475
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: of the political strategy the White House was sort of

476
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: based on the theory that we if we deliver a

477
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: lot of legislation benefiting working class voters, they will reward

478
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: us with their votes. And the problem was, yeah, the

479
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: roads and bridges were getting rebuilt in town. I'm not

480
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: sure people really credited Joe Biden for that, but every

481
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: time they were driving on those roads to the gas

482
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: station of the grocery store, they were punishing Joe Biden

483
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: for that, and by extension, Kamala Harris. And so I

484
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: think Harris did feel a deep sense of loyalty to

485
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. I think she does think he was a

486
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 2: very good president. I also think, you know, like a

487
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 2: lot of vice presidents, it's really awkward. You know, you

488
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: start to say, okay, well, I disagreed with the president

489
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: on X Y or Z. Is there a record of

490
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: you disagreeing with the president on X Y or Z?

491
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: Or are you just saying this out of expedience? Now?

492
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: Are you pissing off constituencies within the coalition to try

493
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 2: to reach for, you know, theoretical voters in the center.

494
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: Does it seem disingenuous and kind of hurt you more

495
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: than it helps you? I'm not sure. I think she

496
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: could threaded the needle by just more definitively describing why

497
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: and how the next four years would be different than

498
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: the last four years. And it was just it was

499
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: like generalities and nothing like clear.

500
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: It was really strange to me and frustrating. And I've

501
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: said this before on this podcast that she wasn't better

502
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: at answering some of these questions, that she didn't seem

503
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: to be able to communicate a clear, specific vision and

504
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: she doesn't have to get in the weeds on policy,

505
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: but you know, just one or two proposals, or as

506
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: you said, saying, you know, I think we probably made

507
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: some mistakes on immigration early in the administration, right, and

508
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: I feel like she didn't take accountability for anything. And

509
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: if she had admitted maybe some mistakes and things that

510
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: she would like to do differently moving forward, as you say,

511
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: she could have threaded the needle more effectively. And you know,

512
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: couldn't David Pluff and Kamala Harris get together with Joe

513
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: Biden and say, listen, we have to separate ourselves from you.

514
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: Couldn't they have those kinds of conversations and kind of

515
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: agree on some of those things or is that not possible.

516
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: I'd like to think it would be possible. I'm not

517
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 2: sure whether it's actually possible. Joe Biden is a very

518
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 2: proud guy with a real chip on his shoulder, and

519
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: I'm not sure he'd appreciate his own vice president pushing

520
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: off against him. But you know, I think you sort

521
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: of ask forgiveness, not permission. You got to win the election.

522
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: That's your job. And if Biden's a little miffed, you know,

523
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: maybe you kiss and make up at the meeting when

524
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 2: you're president elect. And I just think it's also really

525
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 2: kind of shortsighted conventional political advice that you never admit

526
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: a mistake because it shows weakness. I actually think it

527
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: shows strength when you admit a mistake. I think it

528
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 2: breaks through because it doesn't look like typical politicians speak.

529
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: So if Harris had said, you know, I think we

530
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: got that wrong, or I think I was wrong on

531
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 2: some of the positions I took in twenty nineteen, I learned,

532
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 2: I grew, I got better.

533
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: And also, I think you have to remember the moment

534
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: we were in culturally right, or.

535
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: The moment we thought we were in in twenty nineteen.

536
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: As it turns out, Joe Biden read the moment for

537
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: voters a heck of a lot better than like Elizabeth

538
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 2: Warren and Bernie Sanders, and the editorial page of The

539
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 2: New York Times did but yes, meaning explain meaning the

540
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 2: conventional wisdom among like elites and journalists and people who

541
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: live where you and I live in LA and New

542
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: York City in twenty nineteen was we're in the middle

543
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: of this cultural revolution and the country and the Democratic

544
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: Party are moving dramatically to the left, and you've got

545
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: to accommodate this. And you know, Kamala Harris heard that,

546
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 2: and she responded by taking a whole series of like

547
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders positions on a wide variety of issues. Joe

548
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: Biden heard that and ignored it and thought that that

549
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: was wrong and thought that that's not actually where his

550
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: voters were. And Biden was right and Harris was wrong,

551
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: and Biden, you know, resuscitated Harris's career after she completely

552
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 2: flamed out. I mean, she dropped out of the Democratic

553
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: contest before a single caucus or primary in twenty twenty.

554
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: I remember I worked in that primary campaign for another candidate,

555
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: and you know, she she'd started with such promise. She

556
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 2: took a bunch of far left positions that didn't seem

557
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: authentic to her, and she was kind of between a

558
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: rock and a hard place with voters. Biden saved her

559
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 2: political career, made her vice president. She adopted Biden's positions

560
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: on just about every issue, which actually did seem more

561
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: authentic because you know, here in California, Harris is not

562
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: known as a far left politic by any strength. She's

563
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: known as a kind of mainstream democrat who was a

564
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 2: longtime prosecutor.

565
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: And a law and order and made people mad for

566
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 1: minimum mandatory sentence singing stuff. Right.

567
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, there was a whole kind of series of

568
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 2: left wing memes in twenty nineteen when she was running

569
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 2: of Kamal as a cop. I mean, what she actually

570
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: tried to do when she was Attorney General and DA

571
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: of San Francisco was kind of create a third way

572
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 2: that she called smart on crime, and without belaboring the

573
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 2: point too much, it was not a far left plan.

574
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 2: It was a kind of a center left reformist approach

575
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 2: to criminal justice that was very authentic to who she was.

576
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 1: Do you think she emphasized abortion too much and not

577
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 1: pocketbook issues enough.

578
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: I don't know, which is an unsatisfying answer.

579
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: No, that's okay, It's honest.

580
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 2: I'd like to see more data about the voters who

581
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 2: were pro choice and voted for Trump. Any are the

582
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: voters who voted for abortion referenda in various states but

583
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 2: voted for Trump, maybe she should have talked about abortion more.

584
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: That was clearly a big change that favored her. You know,

585
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 2: she was like wrestling a bear on the economy. Immigration

586
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: was a loser for her. Abortion was the one issue

587
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: where she was clearly in the stronger position. And there's

588
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: a part of me that thinks maybe she should have

589
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 2: just hammered abortion every day.

590
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: We'll see, because it didn't seem to be a top issue.

591
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: I mean, again, you'll have to go through the data

592
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 1: from these exit polls because I think the referenda in

593
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: various states, I'm not sure what they'll tell. I mean,

594
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: I'll leave it to that political brain of yours. Let

595
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: me ask you about Joe Biden, though, I mean, there

596
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: was a segment of the population pretty upset about Joe

597
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: Biden kind of waiting till the last minute to drop out,

598
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: and his so called to nablers in the White House

599
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: not being honest about, you know, the fact that he

600
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: was getting older and less capable to do this very

601
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: demanding job. Susan Glasser Steve Schmidt basically were just railing

602
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 1: against Joe Biden for letting his ego get in the

603
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: way and for not stepping aside a year before, so

604
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 1: there could have been a proper primary, so the Democratic

605
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: Party would have been able to find the strongest candidate

606
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 1: who was best equipped to beat Donald Trump. I don't know,

607
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 1: how are you feeling about all that, Brian.

608
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: I agree with that. I'm mad at Joe Biden. He

609
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 2: was very clear in twenty twenty that he was going

610
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: to be a one term president. That's what it meant

611
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 2: when he said he was just a bridge to the

612
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 2: next generation. That's what it meant when he had that

613
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: big event in Michigan at the end of the primaries

614
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, with Whitmer and Corey Booker and Kamala

615
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 2: and all these people standing behind him saying they're the

616
00:37:58,160 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: future of the party. You're going to see a lot

617
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 2: more them than you are of me. I'm just a bridge.

618
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 2: Voters thought he was too old four years ago, but

619
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: you know, they were willing to sort of go with

620
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 2: it because he seemed sharp and he wasn't Donald Trump.

621
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 2: It was just the height of ego folly, willful ignorance

622
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: to think that an eighty one year old could get

623
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: re elected as president of the United States to another

624
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 2: four year term, especially when the decline was so clear

625
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 2: and so obvious to everybody except to him. We verged

626
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 2: into don't believe your lying eyes. And I do resent

627
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: that the team around him apparently never had the cajones.

628
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: As hard as this would be to go to the

629
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: sitting president and say, look, I just don't think this

630
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 2: is a good idea. Mister President. You've been a great president.

631
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 2: I know you feel sharp today, but I just don't

632
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: think this is going to work. And this is a

633
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: gamble with the democracy, with the United States of America,

634
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 2: with the Western Alliance that you cannot take.

635
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: I know this is that could have, would have, should have.

636
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 1: But if he had dropped out earlier and there had

637
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: been a primary process, do you think we would have

638
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: ended up with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

639
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 2: No, I don't because I think the question for primary voters,

640
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 2: who are actually pretty pragmatic in the Democratic Party would

641
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,919
Speaker 2: have been the same as it was four years ago,

642
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 2: which is who can beat Donald Trump? And I don't

643
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 2: think she would have been the answer to that question.

644
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 2: And it's not really her fault. I think it's more

645
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 2: the fact that she was just you know, she's part

646
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 2: of the Biden Harris administration. It was very clear the

647
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: Biden Harris administration was just consistently congenitally unpopular. And so

648
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 2: I think, you know, a Whitmer Warnock ticket, or a

649
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 2: Shapiro Klobashar ticket, or a you know, boodhagige whatever to

650
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 2: I mean, you would have had a lot of strong

651
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 2: candidates running, all of whom would have represented change from

652
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 2: the status quo and wouldn't have had the baggage on

653
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 2: inflation and immigration that Harris did.

654
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 1: And also might that have given her time if she

655
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: was competitive, to hone her message, to introduce herself to

656
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 1: the public, to become more of a national figure, if

657
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: she hadn't had to do a campaign over the course

658
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: of one hundred and eight days or whatever.

659
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 2: It was totally and it represents more dumb political conventional

660
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 2: wisdom like don't admit a mistake, the oh, we can't

661
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: have a primary that would be too divisive. Actually, when

662
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:44,240
Speaker 2: was the best democratic performance in modern times? Two thousand

663
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 2: and eight, when we had this ferociously competitive primary that

664
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,919
Speaker 2: went all the way until June between Hillary and Obama,

665
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: it made both of them dramatically better candidates. Obama emerged

666
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: far stronger from that process. Than when he'd entered it.

667
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: So you do need competition, and you do need to

668
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 2: There's a huge difference between a theoretical candidate and a

669
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: real candidate, and sometimes a real candidate needs some time

670
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 2: to hone their act and get better. Obama was actually

671
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: a pretty crappy candidate for the first three four months,

672
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: maybe six months that he was running in two thousand

673
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 2: and seven, and it was the process that made him

674
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 2: dramatically better and made him find his message.

675
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 1: There's also some serious soul searching going on about the

676
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 1: Democratic Party and if it's lost its way. As we've

677
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: noted before, there's been a significant shift. It used to

678
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 1: be the party of union blue collar workers, and that

679
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: has really shifted over the last few decades, right, and

680
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: now it does seem brian. It is the party of

681
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: college educated, liberal coastal elites.

682
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the urban cosmopolitan party, and they're just not

683
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 2: enough white, college educated coastal voters to win a presidential election.

684
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 2: It reminds me of the story of Adlai Stevenson, who

685
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 2: ran for president twice unsuccessfully, whom the Republicans derided as

686
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 2: an egghead, and some voter came up to a mintern

687
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 2: event and said, you know, everythinking American is for you,

688
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 2: and Stevenson said, well, thank you, ma'am, but I need

689
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 2: a majority. So I think, you know.

690
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: This is why I love you, Brian, because you know

691
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: stories like this.

692
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 2: And I think, by the way, some of that disdain

693
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:55,280
Speaker 2: for working class people comes through among not from Joe Biden,

694
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: not really even from Kamala Harris this time out, but

695
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 2: from a lot of Democrats. And I think a lot

696
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 2: of working class voters can see it, can smell it,

697
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 2: and they don't like it.

698
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 1: And I would say, I mean Joe Biden made that

699
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: slip about garbage or trash, you know. The last week

700
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 1: of the campaign, Mark Cuban said he never sees Donald

701
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 1: Trump with intelligent women. You know. I think those are

702
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: taken as real insults for people who feel dismissed and

703
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: look down upon.

704
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Donald Trump never insults any group of voters.

705
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: They all feel very respected by him.

706
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: Well that's the mystery. You know. He is more Teflon

707
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: than Teflon, and I still will never quite understand why

708
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: he is never punished or held accountable for the horrible

709
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 1: things he says. I think maybe people eat it up

710
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,040
Speaker 1: and they love that he says what they're thinking, and

711
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: that he doesn't have a filter, and he is the

712
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: antithesis of political correctness. And so I think that brings

713
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,840
Speaker 1: me to my next question about sort of woke culture.

714
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 1: You know, I met Dasha Burns, who's this very good

715
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: young reporter for NBC, and I had dinner with her

716
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: a couple of I guess the night I was interviewing

717
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi at the ninety second Street Why and I

718
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: asked her because she covered the Trump campaign. He told

719
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: her if she had beautiful skin, because I said, your

720
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: skin is so pretty? She said, funny, Donald Trump told

721
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: me the same thing.

722
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:32,760
Speaker 2: Must have. Yeah.

723
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 1: I was like, this is really weird. But anyway, you.

724
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 2: And Trump you really think very similarly about a lot

725
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 2: of stuff.

726
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: I said, we must have similar taste in women, right,

727
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: So so anyway, I said, why do you think so

728
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: many people are attracted to him? And she said, well,

729
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 1: I think a little bit. It's lefty lecture culture. And

730
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: I think that was obviously another way of talking to

731
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: about woke culture, this kind of holier than thou self righteous.

732
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 1: I am much more sensitive and aware and ocurant, you know,

733
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 1: than you are, And I know all these terms, and

734
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 1: I do my pronouns, and I do this, and I'm

735
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 1: much more aware and sensitive and caring and educated than

736
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 1: you are, right, which I think a lot of people

737
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: felt that way, and I sort of thought that the

738
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: pendulum had swung back a little on that was this

739
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: sort of a woke hangover that was still in the

740
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: ether that turned a lot of voters off.

741
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: Maybe. I mean, I don't think Harris ran a woke

742
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: campaign this time at.

743
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: All, No, but I think they associate it with Democrats,

744
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: you know, even if she didn't do that.

745
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 2: Well, and there's a lot of video of her saying

746
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 2: a lot of crazy shit from twenty nineteen, back when

747
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: that was okorant and when people were using French as

748
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 2: you know, the language of world diplomacy and you know,

749
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 2: communicating coastal elites. But I think there's a there's a

750
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 2: healthy part of this, and there's an unhealthy part of this.

751
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 2: The healthy part of this is we shouldn't get to

752
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:20,879
Speaker 2: a point where, you know, everything is like pointing fingers

753
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 2: and assigning blame and just because you're not kind of

754
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 2: one hundred percent jibing with the latest and greatest way

755
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 2: of describing diversity, that means you're a bad person that

756
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 2: that kind of you know, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty culture

757
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: was terrible and exclusionary and pushed a lot of good

758
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 2: people away from, you know, the Democratic Coalition. The unhealthy

759
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: part is, I do think Trump is a racist and

760
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,839
Speaker 2: a bigot, and I think, you know, he's not only

761
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: sort of a giant middle finger to the establishment in

762
00:46:56,200 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 2: Washington and institutions that have let people down. He exposes

763
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: or draws out the sort of the unhealthy, the inner

764
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 2: id of a lot of people. You know, I think

765
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: the job of a leader is really to bring out

766
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 2: the best in other people, and he really brings out

767
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 2: the worst in a lot of other people. You know.

768
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 2: You see the behavior of a lot of his supporters

769
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: at these rallies before and after, the way that they're

770
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: engaging with other people online, and it's just very nasty

771
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 2: and very toxic. And so I hope that you know,

772
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,879
Speaker 2: the pendulum doesn't swing so far in the anti woke

773
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 2: direction that we go back to racism, sexism. I know

774
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: that's not what you were saying, but like, we do

775
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 2: have a tendency as a country to sort of overreact,

776
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, it is going to be

777
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 2: fascinating that, Like, I think it's one in four Latinos

778
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 2: in America have at least one undocumented family member. So

779
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 2: if some of these like Latino men who voted for

780
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 2: Trump to to you know, stick it to woe culture,

781
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 2: you know, all of a sudden have their abuela deported

782
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 2: because of the guy that they voted for, that's going

783
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 2: to seem like a bigger problem than what pronoun you use.

784
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: And we're going to talk about what a Trump administration

785
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: is going to look like in a moment. But getting

786
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 1: back to the Democratic Party, what can they do to

787
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: attract maybe a different coalition or win back some of

788
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: the voters that were once solidly in their corner. I

789
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 1: heard Jesse waters is at his name on because sometimes like.

790
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 2: Full political commentator.

791
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,400
Speaker 1: Yes, hey, yeah, he is sort of you look up

792
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: smarmy in the dictionary and you see his face. But

793
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: he was saying that if the Republicans can hold on

794
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: to this new coalition, it's going to be transformative for

795
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,280
Speaker 1: not only the party but for the country. So how

796
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: does the Democratic Party redefine itself?

797
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 2: Well, that's going to be obviously the great conversation that

798
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 2: happens over the next months and years, and there's not

799
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 2: like an easy, you know, one, one simple trick to

800
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 2: fix your problems as a Democrat. I think there's a

801
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 2: lot of stuff. I think we do have to reclaim

802
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 2: a lot of voters in the center who think that

803
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: we've gone, you know, off the rails on a number

804
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 2: of these cultural questions and have taken like weird and

805
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 2: extreme positions. When you see polling that shows voters thinking

806
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 2: that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are equally

807
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: out of touch, equally ideological, equally extreme, that's got to

808
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: be very concerning when you're running against Maga, you know.

809
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: And so there's an ideological component to this. I think

810
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 2: there's also just a you know, a cultural component to this.

811
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 2: It means nominating candidates like the ones who performed really

812
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 2: well earlier this week, who are in touch with regular

813
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,839
Speaker 2: Americans and the struggles and the concerns that they have.

814
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 2: I mean, I would listen to people like Jared Golden

815
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: and Maine who wan one as a House Democrat, even

816
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 2: in a district that Donald Trump carried by twenty points.

817
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,720
Speaker 2: I would listen to Marie Glusen camp Perez in Washington State,

818
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 2: who I think is an auto mechanic and is really

819
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 2: you know, that interesting kind of female working class person

820
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:22,760
Speaker 2: who's a moderate Democrat and has consistently won a Trump district.

821
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 2: I would go to the people who are in the

822
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 2: hard places, who are succeeding in Trump states and Trump districts,

823
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 2: and watch what they're doing, and then do a lot

824
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 2: more of that. And that, by the way, stands in

825
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 2: start contrast to what Bernie Sanders was saying. You know,

826
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 2: he put out a statement earlier today basically saying Democrats

827
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 2: have abandoned working class people in our agenda. You should

828
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,720
Speaker 2: adopt my agenda essentially, and you'll reach working class people.

829
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 2: That would be all well and good if he could

830
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: come up with a single example of a Bernie Sanders

831
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 2: style socialist who won a swing state or a swing district,

832
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 2: and he can't because there isn't one. So, you know,

833
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: this fantasy of the kind of the far left that

834
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,280
Speaker 2: you have all of these you know, far left voters

835
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 2: just waiting to be energized with the right agenda, it

836
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 2: has never happened. And in fact, when those candidates are nominated,

837
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: Democrats tend to lose in swing districts.

838
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the future and what a Trump administration

839
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 1: is going to look like. So many people voted for

840
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: him because they believe he will bring prices down, you know,

841
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,439
Speaker 1: at the pump, at the grocery store, right. And I'm

842
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: curious if you think that will happen, because I've also

843
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: read on the other end that if he's so crazy

844
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: about tariffs, those costs are going to trickle down to

845
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 1: the consumer. And if he does, in fact deport a

846
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: lot of these people, then a lot of agricultural jobs

847
00:51:54,960 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 1: that are being done by immigrants will then make food

848
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 1: prices go up even more. So will you help me

849
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 1: understand this?

850
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: No, you understand it perfectly. So he's promised one thing,

851
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: and then the stuff that he's going to do will

852
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 2: produce the opposite effect, so people vote for lower prices.

853
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 2: He's promised tariffs which will raise prices dramatically, which are

854
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 2: also inflationary. He's promised mass deportation, which will constrain the

855
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 2: labor force and also raise prices. His economic agenda has

856
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: been you know, studied by independent economists who say that

857
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: it will spike inflation and potentially throw the country into

858
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 2: a recession. So you know, he might change his view.

859
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are a little bit

860
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 2: too quick to kind of console themselves by saying, ah,

861
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 2: he doesn't really mean it. You know, his team announced

862
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 2: today that's starting on day one, January twentieth, he is

863
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 2: going to begin the largest mass deportation of immigrants that

864
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 2: the United States has ever seen. So the effect in

865
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 2: cities like la and Chicago and New York is going

866
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: to be unbelievable. I mean, those cities could be ground

867
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: to a halt, and economic activity in those cities, which

868
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 2: are the growth engines of the country, could also be

869
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 2: ground to a halt. So we are in store, I

870
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 2: think for a level of chaos, confusion, and economic pain

871
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: that is very different from even his first administration. But

872
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 2: maybe I'm being too negative.

873
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 1: Now not to mention sort of the heartache on a

874
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 1: human level.

875
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:37,439
Speaker 2: Not to even mention that. I mean, you remember those

876
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:42,399
Speaker 2: heartbreaking pictures of kids getting separated from their parents at

877
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 2: the border. Well, those were migrants. Those weren't American citizens.

878
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 2: What he's promising is to deport eleven million American undocumented immigrants.

879
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:55,280
Speaker 2: As I said, a lot of whom have US citizens

880
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: and their families. So you could see on an industrial

881
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 2: scale in images and video of children who are US

882
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 2: citizens being separated from their parents in US cities. So

883
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 2: I think the parade of horribles here is big and

884
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 2: it's real, and I fear the consequences.

885
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about foreign policy Ukraine and the

886
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 1: Middle East? What are we likely to see in both

887
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 1: of those situations? And he has expressed his hostility toward NATO.

888
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: What does it mean for sort of our position in

889
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:35,760
Speaker 1: the world.

890
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 2: I was at lunch a couple of weeks ago with

891
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 2: a former senior German official who was saying, you know,

892
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:45,799
Speaker 2: you guys didn't really know you Americans what you were

893
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 2: getting into with Trump in twenty sixteen. You narrowly elected him.

894
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 2: You corrected the problem four years later. Life goes on.

895
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 2: NATO is strong, but knowing what you know now, and

896
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: given everything he's saying about blowing up NATO and deferring

897
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 2: to Putin, if you guys elect him again, that is

898
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 2: the end of NATO. That Europe will make a deal

899
00:55:08,560 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 2: with China, Europe will know that it can't rely on

900
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 2: the United States of America, Ukraine will have to cut

901
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 2: a bad deal with Putin. God knows what that'll look like.

902
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 2: So I think the consequences globally are immense. I think,

903
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 2: you know, superpowers don't just you know, continue by default.

904
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:31,240
Speaker 2: They continue because they have to continuously earn that position.

905
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 2: And if America isn't you know, leading with our allies,

906
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: if we're thumbing our nose at democracies and embracing authoritarians

907
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: around the world as Trump always seems to do, if

908
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 2: our wallets and bank accounts are open to bribes basically

909
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 2: from foreigners, as the Trump families wallets and bank accounts

910
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 2: seem to be open, that also creates a climate in

911
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 2: which our allies are going to be very distrustful. I mean,

912
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 2: somebody told me the other day, and I don't know

913
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 2: whether this is true, but it sounds true that, you know,

914
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,800
Speaker 2: Trump is selling these hundred thousand dollars watches that actually

915
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 2: cost like five or ten grand to make. And the

916
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 2: person told me that he has heard that a lot

917
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 2: of foreigners who want to influence Donald Trump have been

918
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:21,960
Speaker 2: buying these watches just as a way to bribe Trump

919
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 2: and the Trump family. Because every time you buy a watch,

920
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 2: you know, seventy eighty grand goes into Donald Trump's pocket. So,

921
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: you know, if you were a foreign leader and you're

922
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 2: looking to get in good with the President of the

923
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: United States, the most powerful man in the world. Why

924
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 2: wouldn't you just buy a hundred watches? And by the way,

925
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 2: is anyone going to know that you did? No? Or

926
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 2: why wouldn't you like invest another billion dollars or two

927
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 2: billion dollars in Jared Kushner's private equity fund.

928
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 1: What about the Middle East? Obviously, I think people have

929
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 1: described Netanyaho as Israel's Donald Trump. How do you see

930
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 1: that planet.

931
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 2: Well, they both have to stay in power so that

932
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 2: they can stay out of jail. They have that in common,

933
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:09,240
Speaker 2: and they're both very cynical operators. There was a statement

934
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 2: today that perhaps Bib would end the war by the

935
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: time Trump comes to office as a sort of favored

936
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 2: him to allow him to start from a clean slate.

937
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 2: I'm not sure about that though, because if bb ends

938
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 2: the war, it would produce a reckoning in Israel that's

939
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 2: been sort of deferred by the war into Bibe's conduct

940
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 2: pre October seventh, how he allowed that to happen, and

941
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 2: his management of the war, and so I don't know

942
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: where that's going to go. I do know that you

943
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 2: know people who are anti Israel who either you know

944
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 2: stayed home or voted for Jill Stein or whatever because

945
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 2: they thought somehow that Trump would be better than Harris.

946
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 2: Are going to be in for a very rude awakening

947
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 2: once Trump is in power. Why because I don't think

948
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 2: Trump is going to stand up to BB at all.

949
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 1: You're saying voters who are concerned about Gaza and what

950
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: happens next and civilian casualties who voted against Kamala for

951
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 1: that reason.

952
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Trump's not going to be a check on BB.

953
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: Right, And when he went to Dearborn, Michigan, I thought

954
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 1: that was interesting, Right, didn't he win Dearborn?

955
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 2: I think he did win at least East Dearborn. I

956
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 2: haven't seen the results in all the precincts, which is tiny.

957
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: But you know, conversely, Jewish voters who held their noses

958
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 2: on abortion and character and all sorts of other issues

959
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: to support Trump on Israel, I wonder what happens when

960
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: Israel throws out Bibe and elects somebody more centrist like

961
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 2: Benny Gance, or when the interests of the Saudi's and

962
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 2: the Kataris, who are literally funding the Trump family run

963
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 2: crosswise with Israel's. Will Trumps stand with Israel at that point,

964
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 2: I really don't think so. So I think he's a

965
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 2: very fair weather for I think it's very dependent on

966
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 2: bb being the one in charge, and I'm not sure

967
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: any of that's going to last.

968
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: Two other questions, are we going to see a national

969
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 1: abortion ban given that the Senate is controlled by the

970
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 1: Republicans now, or minimum standards like a six week abortion

971
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 1: ban or a fifteen week abortion ban.

972
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 2: The answer is, we don't know. He promised at the

973
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 2: very end of the campaign that he would veto a

974
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 2: national abortion ban, but it sort of depends how you

975
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 2: define a national abortion ban. I mean, maybe if it's

976
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 2: a twelve week ban or a fifteen week ban, he

977
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:37,360
Speaker 2: won't view it as a ban. He'll view it as

978
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 2: like a minimum standard. And he's just against late term abortion.

979
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 1: I mean.

980
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 2: The problem with all of that is, if you actually

981
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: look at this issue, later term abortions happen through these

982
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 2: sort of, as you know, Katie, heartbreaking scenarios. It's not

983
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 2: as though the mother wants to have an abortion at

984
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 2: that point, it's there's some grievous health problem, either with

985
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 2: the mo other or the fetus that creates the situation

986
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 2: out of medical necessity, and so you put in place

987
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 2: an arbitrary limit, and you take options out of the

988
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 2: hands of a woman and her doctor, and it's really

989
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 2: dangerous and I'm not at all confident that he's going

990
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 2: to stop something like that from happening.

991
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 1: Last question, I saw an Instagram post that said, convicted

992
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 1: felons can't vote in this country, but a convicted felon

993
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 1: can be elected president. Please explain.

994
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 2: Well, in some states, convicted felons can vote. We learned this,

995
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:42,080
Speaker 2: by the way, in Florida, where Trump lives. It depends

996
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: on what you're convicted of.

997
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: So, oh, is that why he was able to vote.

998
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 1: I thought it was because he was appealing the verdict.

999
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 2: No, it's because it depends on the type of felony.

1000
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 1: Okay, In many states, convicted felons can't vote, but a

1001
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 1: convicted felon can be elected president of the United States.

1002
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 1: The question is, will he ever face any consequences for

1003
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 1: his actions or even for the you know, crimes he's

1004
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 1: been convicted of.

1005
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. I think he's gotten out

1006
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 2: of it by being elected president. I think that's his

1007
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 2: get out of jail free card. And you know, not

1008
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 2: to sound too conspiratorial, but he just said last week

1009
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 2: that his biggest mistake was a leaving office in January

1010
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty one. What do we think the odds

1011
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 2: are that he's going to leave office in January of

1012
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 2: twenty twenty nine. Is it one hundred percent? Is it

1013
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 2: eighty percent? The fact that there's some doubt about that,

1014
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,360
Speaker 2: because you know, God knows what would happen to him

1015
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 2: if he left the White House again, you know, creates

1016
01:01:42,240 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 2: all sorts of scary scenarios, like what if he says, well,

1017
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 2: you know, I was denied a second term in twenty

1018
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 2: twenty that I rightfully won. I should be allowed. You know,

1019
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 2: the Constitution says, you know, no two consecutive terms, but

1020
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 2: I should be allowed a second consecutive term. Who's going

1021
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 2: to stop the Supreme Court, the Congress. I'm just not

1022
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:07,040
Speaker 2: sure that these guard rails are strong enough anymore to

1023
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 2: withstand what's about to be thrown at them.

1024
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I wanted to end with this quote

1025
01:02:13,120 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 1: by FDR in a fireside chat he gave. He said

1026
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 1: democracy has disappeared in several other great nations, not because

1027
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:28,480
Speaker 1: the people of those nations disliked democracy, but because they

1028
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:32,840
Speaker 1: had grown tired of unemployment and insecurity of seeing their

1029
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:36,280
Speaker 1: children hungry while they sat helpless in the face of

1030
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 1: government confusion and government weakness through lack of leadership and government. Finally,

1031
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 1: in desperation, they chose to sacrifice liberty in the hope

1032
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 1: of getting something to eat. We in America know that

1033
01:02:49,880 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 1: our own democratic institutions can be preserved and made to work.

1034
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 1: But in order to preserve them, we need to act

1035
01:02:57,160 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: together to meet the problems of the nation and boldly,

1036
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 1: and to prove that the practical operation of democratic government

1037
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: is equal to the task of protecting the security of

1038
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 1: the people. I thought that sounded very prescient in some ways,

1039
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:21,640
Speaker 1: and perhaps an explanation to why some people seem to

1040
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 1: gravitate towards an authoritarian figure like Donald Trump. We haven't

1041
01:03:28,400 --> 01:03:31,000
Speaker 1: protected the people enough.

1042
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 2: Right even though of course we have record low unemployment

1043
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 2: right now.

1044
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:38,600
Speaker 1: But you just run my very dramatic and.

1045
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,400
Speaker 2: You know, here's another here's another line that I'm going

1046
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 2: to steal, which is, if liberals don't secure the border,

1047
01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 2: fascist will I don't know who said that, but I

1048
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 2: thought that was really smart. You know, there's certain things

1049
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 2: that people expect of their government that you know, even

1050
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:00,880
Speaker 2: liberals have to deliver when they're in power as learning.

1051
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:05,560
Speaker 1: And I think what's really challenging as we approach a

1052
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:13,440
Speaker 1: second Trump administration is he is so unpredictable. Nobody really

1053
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 1: knows what he's going to do. And on that hopeful note,

1054
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: thanks Brian.

1055
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 2: Thank you Katie. Always a pleasure.

1056
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone. If you have a question for me,

1057
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 1: a subject you want us to cover, or you want

1058
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 1: to share your thoughts about how you navigate this crazy

1059
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 1: world reach out. You can leave a short message at

1060
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 1: six h nine five P one two five to five

1061
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 1: oh five, or you can send me a DM on Instagram.

1062
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,760
Speaker 1: I would love to hear from you. Next Question is

1063
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:59,080
Speaker 1: a production of iHeartMedia and Katie Kuric Media. The executive

1064
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 1: producers are Me, Katie Couric, and Courtney Ltz. Our supervising

1065
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 1: producer is Ryan Martz, and our producers are Adriana Fazzio

1066
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: and Meredith Barnes. Julian Weller composed our theme music. For

1067
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 1: more information about today's episode, or to sign up for

1068
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 1: my newsletter, wake Up Call, go to the description in

1069
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 1: the podcast app or visit us at Katiecuric dot com.

1070
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 1: You can also find me on Instagram and all my

1071
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 1: social media channels. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the

1072
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your

1073
01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:35,920
Speaker 1: favorite shows.