1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: Single best idea, We'll be quick today. CPI report. Lots 3 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 2: of good bank earnings as well. Secretary Bessett and conversation 4 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: with John Farrell always interesting, particularly on tariffs. We had 5 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: a really interesting and eclectic show. Barry Ridholds joined, of 6 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: course out with his acclaimed book How Not To and Vast, 7 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: and he went all Greek letters on us. He mentioned 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 2: alpha in beta. There are different Greek letters that set 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: up the dynamic of our time series moves. Beta is 10 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: your movement relative to a core index. If you have 11 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 2: a beta under one, you're not as moving as the SPX, 12 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: If you have a beta over one, you're moving more 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: than the SPX. Standard ports five hundred elphas. Just making 14 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 2: money here is Barry Ritholtz. I'm not losing money. 15 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: Stockpickers, other than the handful of the half a dozen 16 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: people we all know, our household names tend to underperform 17 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: a broad index. So you can't get alpha if you're 18 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: not at least starting with beta. So if you want 19 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: to make the core of your portfolio a broad index, 20 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: and then you want to decorate that tree with specific 21 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 1: stocks or specific sectors knock yourself out. But to strictly 22 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: focus on picking stocks and guaranteeing that, hey, maybe this 23 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: year I'll out perform, maybe this year will underperform seems 24 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: like an excessively risky strategy. Better to at least guarantee 25 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: yourself what the market's going to give you. If you 26 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:43,559 Speaker 1: want to try and build on that. 27 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 2: Go ahead. I'll editorialize off that brilliance from Barry Ritholds. 28 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: Another Greek letter's Theta. Theta is for the time change, 29 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: and of course that's the X axis on any chart. 30 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: The more out your investment is on theta, the less 31 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 2: alpha you want to do. And what Berry's saying is 32 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: on a four to oh one k figure out the 33 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 2: index you like best, etc. Etc. And stick with it. 34 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 2: There's a thing called our squared, which we don't talk 35 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,119 Speaker 2: about in July. But the answer is get your basic 36 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 2: investment in gear and then you can comfortably do Bolt 37 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 2: lines mister Ridhold suggesting you'll find alpha with quality investments 38 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: wrapped around that foundational beta support. I'm exhausted after all 39 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 2: of that, never exhausted to talk to Gene Monster of 40 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 2: deep Water Asset Management. There's a whole different change coming 41 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 2: on AI. I've really noticed it just in the last 42 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: say two months, a more nuanced discussion Monster an artificial intelligence. 43 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 3: It turns out that each of these models, with the 44 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: exception of Lama, Lama is pretty weak. And so but 45 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 3: if you look at the other four primary models, they 46 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 3: all have kind of different strengths. And so ultimately, is 47 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 3: that I think of AI as more of like a personality, 48 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 3: is that the world isn't going to be centered on 49 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: one personality. We won't want that, and so each of 50 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 3: these models has a slightly different personality and slightly different strengths. 51 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 3: And so that's what we are seeing is if you're 52 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 3: gonna say, what's like the best model kind of putting 53 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 3: everything all together, it's probably open AI GPT today, and 54 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 3: then Rock and Gemini kind of close behind. 55 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 2: Gene Monster there as we get to the technology season. 56 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 2: He was a little cautious here on the opportunities for Microsoft. 57 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 2: I think that was a surprise of the interview. Look 58 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 2: for that interview in its entirety out at Bloomberg dot com, 59 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 2: on our podcast, on Apple, on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts. 60 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 2: This is a single best idea