WEBVTT - How The Ultra-Rich Are Investing After Biden Win: Tiger 21 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.799 and on Bloomberg dot com. With President elected Biden just 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:24.720 weeks away from entering the White House, markets are discounting 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.640 what it means for financial assets, particularly from a tax 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.639 adjusted basis, and that is obviously very important for the 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.559 wealthy and ultra wealthy in the market to get a 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.600 sense of kind of what they're thinking. We're fortunate to 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:40.040 welcome back to the show Michael Son and Felt, chairman 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:44.040 and founder of Tiger One. Tiger twenty one is a 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:49.360 peer membership organization for high net worth creators and preservers 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.040 of wealth, helping to navigate through the challenges and opportunities 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:55.920 that success that success creates. Michael, thanks so much for 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:59.120 joining us again here. Uh you know, we're now back 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.320 to having a Democrat in the White House. One of 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:06.039 the assumptions is that taxes maybe going up. What are 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.039 some of your members Uh, what are they reacting? What 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:12.959 are they saying about a Biden presidency. Well, first of all, 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.120 thanks for having me back. It's great to be with you. 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:21.080 Our members are very focused on taxes historically, though what 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:23.600 they said is it was more about whether the money 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:27.240 was being well spent by the government, uh, and less 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:30.800 about the absolute level of taxes. We just did a 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:36.840 recent survey across our membership and hum, a difference of 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:39.680 as much as five or ten as little as five 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:42.800 or ten percent in the tax rate would get some 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:46.760 of our members to move to lower tax states, a 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.920 lot of people moving out of California and New York. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.760 So it's really a warning that there are limits on 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:56.680 a state basis and on the federal basis. Most of 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.880 our members think that if you have a divided government, 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:05.559 if the Republicans maintained control of the Senate, the most 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:10.760 sweeping tax changes are a little less likely. Why do 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.880 they a certain point stop trusting government so they'll play 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:18.880 a certain amount of tax But then suddenly they've decided 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.160 that what the government was on the rest of the 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.760 extra tax on is not what they would want the 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.840 government to spend it on. Is that is? So there's 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:31.960 obviously a wide range of opinion among our membership. Most 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:36.080 of our members come from very middle and lower middle 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:40.239 class backgrounds and have started with very little and bootstrapped 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:45.120 into great success. These are some of the great entrepreneurs, 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:50.320 so there is a sense of individualism and wanting to 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:55.320 create incentives. So the topic that comes up the most is, 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.680 of course, a government needs to pave the roads and 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:03.800 have a military. But when taxes start becoming instruments of 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:08.680 policy of wealth redistribution, some of our members think that 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.760 goes beyond what prudent tax policy should be. But others 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.919 are frankly quite aware of the inequality in our society 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:22.200 and are struggling to think about how the dispersion of 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:28.720 wealth the inequality can best be addressed. So, Michael, given 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:33.200 the pandemic uncertainty, given the political uncertainty which now seems 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:36.760 to be more certain, how have your members been preparing 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:43.600 their portfolios for beyond sure um. Earlier in the year, 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:49.720 we had a historic rise in cash. Over the last decade, 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.800 our members have generally held about twelve percent in cash, 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:58.960 never more than percent and never less than eleven percent, 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.040 And all of a sudden and in the first quarter 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:06.080 of this year, members rose cash two levels close to 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:11.800 high teams. It was not only the largest shift, but 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:16.080 the fastest shift we ever recorded. So once the pandemic hit, 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:19.719 people were really battening down the hatches. And when you 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:24.920 have complicated portfolios, making sure you have enough cash becomes 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.840 far more important than what your returns are because you 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.600 don't want to default on obligations and you don't want 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:35.960 to miss opportunities. UM. You know, as the year has progressed, obviously, 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:40.760 the markets have been extraordinary and our members have recorded 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:45.160 really amazing returns and that was before November. November returns 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.119 are coming in. Uh. Just this morning, I was looking 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:51.400 at the first three hedge funds to report in my 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:55.560 own portfolio with ten plus percent returns. UH. So our 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.839 members are reporting over ten percent returns for the year. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.520 My guess is they'll end up at mid teens depending 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:07.720 on December, and they're back to technology and healthcare on 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:13.480 the public sector side, technology particularly as the long term 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.640 best bet UM. I think we've talked about in prior 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:20.560 shows that our members have had a bias towards technology 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:22.800 for the last couple of years as the number one 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:29.960 area of focus intensified with alternative UM UH with AI 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.719 artificial intelligence, and that was that turned out to be 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:38.159 an amazing bet. Our single largest stock has historically been Apple, 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:42.039 but all of the fangs have been favorites among our members. 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.160 And what a year they've had, real quick Michael, But 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.880 what was the hard asset of choice for people deploying 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:50.559 some of that cash that they raised at the beginning 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:54.559 of year. Uh So, you know, real estate is still 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.800 the largest asset class, but there's no asset class that's 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:03.040 had more turmoil within real estate. On the industrial side, 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:07.320 it's just been on fire. The entire shift to online 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:11.559 sales has created needs for warehousing from which all those 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:16.800 online purchases get delivered. So that's been the top page. Well, 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:18.520 it is funny you should mention that because we just 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.680 had a headline costs in the Bloomberg that kk R 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:24.000 is nearing a deal for a portfolio of US warehouses. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.960 It would be an eight hundred million dollar deal. Michael. 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:28.880 We're out of time, but thank you for joining. Always 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.720 a pleasure. Michael Sonontelt is chairman and founder of Tiger 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.520 twenty one and as a group, it has seventies seven 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:38.359 billion dollars in assets under management. Taking care of the 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:42.400 old toy, wealthy and really just chatting among one another 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:46.359 about how things should get done on on all sides 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:52.000 of the table. So we thank Michael very much. Let's 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:53.880 bring in somebody who was listening to that interview now 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:56.320 and who knows all about this, Sam Fazali, senior pharmaceutical 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.280 analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. And Sam, we were listening to 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:03.120 the BioNTech guests who talked about about this wonderful news 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:07.520 that Britain's will start getting shot. Why Britain first? This 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:10.600 this stac scene was made in the US and in Germany, 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.320 and what it's great that anybody is getting it. This 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:14.960 is this is the beginning of the argument. You know, 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:19.560 who goes first? Yeah, so, um, I mean, I mean 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:23.600 the speed with which regulators wanting to get to look 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.160 at drugs and and and make the decisions is different. 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:32.360 Some have more, um layers of approval requirements, etcetera. So 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.400 there's a lot of arguments and discussion going on about 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.120 why the UK went first and got there first before 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:41.000 the EMA. When it comes to distributing, you know, the press. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.520 The press conference that the UK had was pretty clear 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:47.120 about the direction they're going, and that is healthcare workers 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:51.680 and then m at risk people, which are usually the 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:55.520 all the folks who live in often in the care homes, etcetera. 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:56.960 So it will be by age, and I think it 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:58.520 will be the same in the United States. And I 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:01.400 suspect you were pretty much him as in Europe. I 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:04.520 think everyone's kind of made up their minds on that one. Hey, Sam, 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:06.640 here in the United States we have a fairly large 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.520 percentage of the population that is generally anti vaccine for 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.440 a variety of reasons. Is that is that a typical 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.200 is that you have a similar issue in the UK 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:20.560 and across Europe. UM. Yeah, you know, Paul, I think 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.680 it varies depending on geography and even within a country. 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.760 So I've even heard, for instance, eastern Massachusetts being likely 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.360 to go into the level, but then you go further 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:36.080 west and the numbers dropped massively. We've also got the 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:39.840 situation in UM in France that after the European countries, 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:42.840 it appears to be in surveys at least one of 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:48.160 the more reticent countries. So it will vary country by country. 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:52.160 We basically need about fifty to six people to take 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:56.079 this vaccine UM, given that there's ten to tent who 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.600 would have been infected along the way anyway to get 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:00.680 us to that HERD immunity number. So it's not like 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:04.120 we need to vaccinate everybody. Yeah, and it's great news 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.640 that it's starting quickly. Though on the regulators approving this. 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.160 Did the European Union regulators not have to get this 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.920 approved as well? Explained? Was how weird managed to get 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:17.160 us all done sort of unilaterally? Yeah, but the UK 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:20.720 is UM you know, within within the rules of their 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.640 during emergencies etcetera. They do have the option to go 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.680 away from the European unions e m A European Medicine 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:34.320 Association which is UM, which is what they've done. So 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:39.280 this is and I think what the process was and 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.959 why the UK was faster than europe versus the s 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.400 d A. I think a lot of that comes down 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.520 to how much resources you throw at it. I can't 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.880 I cannot accept that the European that the UK regulator 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:56.280 cut corners to get to this UM. They've been engaged 0:09:56.320 --> 0:10:01.840 with FIGHTER and other regulators since June looking at manufacturing 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:03.679 all the other work that needs to be done. So 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:07.120 I just can't believe that this one week difference will 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:09.440 make an enormous amount of difference to people in terms 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.360 of what data they see. Suddenly they're going to see 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:14.160 a lot more data than the UK has. Hey Sam, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.120 you're you've been covering as pharmaceutical game for decades. Here 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:20.400 you actually have a PhD in the crazy science behind 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:24.640 all this. Do you personally care and you think patients 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.439 in general should care which vaccine they get? Or are 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:29.560 you going to take just the first thing that gets 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:34.120 offered to san Fazelli? Yeah, so I think Paul, that 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.440 will come down to the efficacy. But but and so 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.079 we need to see the data, the data I've seen 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:43.240 so far from fiser BioNTech versus moderna. You know, I 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:45.080 will take either one of them that's offered to me. 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:48.360 The fier BioNTech one appears to be. And those are 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:52.720 carefully chosen words until we see more data, more tolerable 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:55.360 in terms of you get less fever, you get less 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.120 body aches. But frankly, if it comes down to it, 0:10:58.200 --> 0:10:59.880 and says Sam, you're gonna have to wait a year 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:01.840 that one, but we can give you more there no now, 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:04.400 and I think I'll just that would be a very 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:06.520 easy question to answer. Of course I'll say yes to that. 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.760 So this is then honestly just fantastic news. We're beginning 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:12.960 to get the roll out of the vaccine. The vaccine works, 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.240 and you know, can we all go home and rest 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.440 peacefully or are there things that still stick out and 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.280 bother you like, do we know, for example, if they're 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.160 going to be longer term effects, we know we're going 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:28.280 to need another vaccine in nine months. Yes, so there 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:31.720 are what what does bother me? One is is not? 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.320 Is not long term side effects and all that. I 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:38.160 think you know, We've had a lot of vaccines developed 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.800 and it's essentially they have pretty similar, very rare side 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.439 effect issues which are related to the immune system, but 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.240 very rare. So I'm not worried about that. What I 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.760 am worried about is that the virus as soon as 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:53.120 we start putting pressure on it, I pushing people to 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.080 be vaccinated, and therefore they have an immune response that 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.640 we end up what's called colonal selection. We end up 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:04.240 selecting a version of the virus that's less susceptible to 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:09.320 our vaccine. Now, as you just heard biotic Um, Alex 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:13.720 and Guy were asking the Biotic executive about mutations. They 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:18.680 said they've studied ten mutations and the vaccines equally efficacious 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.760 in those settings. I don't know, he didn't really answer 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.520 the question about that particular mutation I asked about, But 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:27.920 it doesn't really matter. There are others that will come 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:32.760 along that might escape our vaccine. But remember that we've 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:34.960 got a technology that you can go back and change 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.800 the sequence, change the RNA that you give people and 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:39.800 get a new vaccine out. I mean, it would take time, 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:43.400 but we have to watch out for that. Hey, Sam, 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.160 thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.600 your perspective and your experience Here. Santa Zelli senior pharmaceutical analyst, 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:54.079 and it's also the head of the entire Bloomberg Intelligence 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.480 European research operations. So who's a busy person these days? 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:01.320 Giving us his latest thoughts on the vaccine. Well, let's 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.360 welcome in now a very special guest joining us from 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.160 the University of Missouri's Law school. Frank Moment as professor 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:13.120 at missour Law and has written a book on well, 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.320 let's give the title, High Crimes and Misdemeanor is a 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.920 History of impeachment for the Age of Trump. Thank you 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.559 for so much joining us, Frank. Frank, you know a 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.160 lot of talk about presidential pardons these days, and the 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:26.760 potential for the president to pardon really anybody in his 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:32.400 family or even himself. Can he do that? We have 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:35.960 to distinguish between two possible types of partners, one pardon 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.480 of himself and the other pardon of other people. In 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:45.160 my view, a president cannot constitutionally pardoned himself. Um. There's 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:50.240 a complex array of reasons why that's so, Um, although 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:54.600 it's never mentested. Um. Now with respect to partnering members 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.079 of his family, are people around him that I think 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.840 is clearer. I think he can do that, although it's 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:04.160 possible that um, depending on the circumstances of such a pardon, 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:11.360 the pardon itself might be a crime. So, Professor, for 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.280 pardons to be issued, don't they have to be issued 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.599 against someone who's been convicted of something as opposed to 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:23.400 kind of preemptively issuing blanket pardons. No, Um, Actually, a 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:28.560 pardon can be issued for any conduct that occurred prior 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:31.520 to the insurance of the pardon, whether it was it 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:36.960 has been investigated or indicted. We have several very significant 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:40.160 instances about occurring in our own history. For example, after 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.960 the Civil War, Andrew Johnson pardoned many thousands of former 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:48.080 Confederates who would potentially have been liable for the very 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.400 serious crime of treason, but who had never been charged 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:53.800 for it. Similarly, after Vietnam War, first President Ford and 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:58.080 then President Carter gave a series of amnesties or pardons 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:01.400 to people who would have been esecutable for and sometimes 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:07.240 had been prosecuted for draftivation. So there's plenty of precedent 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.880 for that. Now. One thing that can't be done is 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.160 you can't pardon somebody for a crime that hasn't yet 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:17.480 been committed. Um nor I think can you pardon somebody 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.760 or a crime which is ongoing. So imagine, just for 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.560 the sake of argument, that someone in the Trump orbit 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:28.040 was currently engaging in some kind of crime that continued 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.000 after he left office. He wouldn't be able to pardon 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.120 that person for a crime that that continued, yeah, or 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.960 hasn't started yet. We're getting very minority report here. But Frank, 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.720 you mentioned earlier that the pardon itself might be a crime. 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.800 I'm interest in that because if that wasn't a deterrent, 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:53.080 then why wouldn't an outgoing president who doesn't really you know, mind, 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.000 just issue a blanket pardon for anybody that he thinks 0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:00.280 might ever have or you know, be implicated in some 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.800 kind of claim that you know, might have to deal 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.960 with that after he's left the presidency. So why would 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:11.240 a pardoner itself be a clime Potentially, Well, it's only 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.320 going to be a crime in a very limited set 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:18.480 of circumstances. Actually, although we don't yet know. There of course, 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:20.880 as a report about the details. But there's of course 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.760 a report out of Washington's at the Justice Department is 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:30.640 investigating a essentially country campaign contributions for pardon bribery scheme, 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.080 and anybody involved in an exchange like that, up to 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:38.520 and including the president would be guilty of the separate 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.440 crime of bribery. Now there's we don't have any of 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.240 the details, We have no indication whatsoever who's involved in 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.440 certainly no indication that the president himself is involved in 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.800 such a thing. But just assume hypothetically that a president 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:55.320 were to agree to take a bribe in response to 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:57.280 which he would issue a pardon, that would be a 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:02.400 freestanding crime. Now, simply issuing a pardon that is broadly 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:06.520 self interested and unseemly is not going to be criminal. 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.920 And lots of presidents, unfortunately have done that kind of thing. 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.439 I mean, the President Clinton, for example, issues a series 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:16.720 of pardons at the end of his presidency that we're 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.760 very ugly. Indeed, indeed, at least one of them, the 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:21.919 Mark rich pardon, I suppose, could have been argued to 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:25.679 have been overtly corrupt because Richard made contributions to the Clintons. 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:32.640 But generally speaking, even unseemly pardons are going to stand 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:37.680 and aren't going to be separately prosecutable. Well, can pardons 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:42.520 be challenged in any scenario there, Professor, or they pretty 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:46.159 much uh you know etgten Stone once they are in 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:50.520 fact issued. There's a little disagreement about that. My own 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:52.919 view is once the pardon is issued, regardless of the 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:56.719 reason where it's having been issued, then the pardon itself stands, 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.439 at least as to the person pardoned. Now are there 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:04.240 are some people who disagree with that, who suggests that, um, 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:08.119 there are certain ways or certain occasions on which what 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:12.479 they characterize is really self interested pardons, pardons that in 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:18.199 some way benefit the president, that denigrate from his his 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:22.399 obligation to ensure that the laws be faithfully executed, that 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:25.480 those might be challengeable in court. I very much doubt that. 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:28.240 I think once the pardon is issued, it is almost 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.159 certainly going to stand. The President has suggested that they 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:35.959 might want to again in four years. Would any history 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:42.119 of pardons impact any kind of potential future run well, 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:46.080 I think. I think in a prior universe, in in 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:50.760 the political universe, that we inherit and inhabited you know, 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.440 eight times twenty years ago for the for the remainder 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:57.080 of our history. Back to Yeah, I think there would 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.919 be a problem if a president issued a bunch of 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.000 obviously self interested partons, including pardons of himself. I think 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.320 that would be almost automatically disqualifying. But in our current 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:10.320 media environment, wherever where both sides are so heavily siloed, 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:14.359 you've already got people within what I might call that 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:19.200 the Trump universe, Fox News and other places actively suggesting 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.600 that Trump pardoned himself in order to, you know, protect 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:25.800 himself against the evil liberals and the operation of the 0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:29.480 deep state. I think, at least among Trump's face, a 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:33.919 series of grotesquely self interested partons, including one of himself, 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:38.960 might not be disqualifying. Whether you know that would be 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:43.600 true for the larger Electorate's another question, Professor, what gives 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.760 a sense of timing here. Should we expecting some of 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.479 these pardons really at the last minute, or can they 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:54.280 happen at any time? Well, because a pardon only covers 0:19:55.480 --> 0:20:00.000 conduct that's already occurred, the safest time are the most 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.879 inclusive times usha pardon is at the very end of 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.960 the president's term. Certainly, if you pardons himself, I would 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:08.159 expect he'll do that on the very last day, pactly 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:12.840 the very last minute. Um. But you know, some other cases, 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:17.479 as we've already seen with the Mr Flynn, are not 0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:21.000 I don't seem to have that kind of time angle. 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.800 And uh, you know, we might see a series of 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:26.720 pardons leading up the last day. But I think it's 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:31.240 not unreasonable to at least imagine that you would get 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.639 a series of pardons from Mr Trump issued on the 0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:38.320 morning of January. Frank, thanks so much for joining us. 0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:41.640 We really appreciate it. Frank Bowman the Floyd Art Gibson 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:45.600 Missouri and dowed Professor of Law at the University Missouri 0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:49.800 School of Law based in Colombia, Missouri, talking to us 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:54.359 about the pardons, and that certainly presidents have done that 0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:59.600 pardons made pardons in the past rather routinely. The expectation 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:03.760 is that President Trump will continue to make them as 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:05.679 he winds his way down to the last days of 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:11.920 his presidency. So what can we expect for the holiday 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.280 shopping season. We've been talking about it now for a 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:17.760 few weeks pre Black Friday, but of course typically it 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:19.560 would remain hot right through the end of the year. 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:22.320 Let's bring in Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:25.680 to tell us exactly what his surveys are telling him. Craig, 0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:27.960 you've been doing this for a couple of decades now, 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:31.159 how things grown to a hold this year? Or do 0:21:31.359 --> 0:21:34.040 anticipate that people will spend even if it's on their 0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:38.720 credit cards? Well, people are spending. U They may not 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:41.840 be spending on Black Friday or Cyber Monday Monday as 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:44.520 much as some people thought, but they are spending. So 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:48.560 we went into the season with our nineties annual now 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:53.760 preseason forecast up five, which is above consensus and based 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:55.600 on what we saw for November as a hole. I'm 0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:58.760 not talking about Friday, but for November is an entirety 0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:04.520 through through Monday, sales were up about seven UM and 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:07.640 for November they week three hundred and three billion dollars, 0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:11.000 and that's entirely consistent with our forecast to five eight. 0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:13.640 In fact, the season overall may come in a little 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:18.440 bit above six. So those numbers are craict Those numbers 0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:21.879 are really really interesting. And um, given that when you 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.840 were so much unemployment out there and so much angst 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:26.720 in the marketplace and so much uncertainty, what do you 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:32.080 attribute uh those growth numbers? Two? Well, they it's a 0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:33.800 couple of things going on, but the most important is 0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:38.600 the consumer fundamentals are overall are very very strong. Disposable 0:22:38.640 --> 0:22:41.200 personal income. I'm not talking about the people have a job, 0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:44.960 but as a heart, as a whole growth and disposedment 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:48.080 coming as the single biggest particular retail sales, it's up 0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.680 about six percent year of a year. UM, that's very strong. 0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:57.320 Consumer household financials balance sheets are the healthiest ever with 0:22:57.440 --> 0:23:00.280 an eight point seven percent household debt service a show 0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:03.240 for the FED. And the personal savings rate is about 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.320 and that personal savings is key because consumers have dry 0:23:08.440 --> 0:23:11.960 powder of two point four trillion dollars on their balance 0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:14.240 sheets right now, so they don't have to tap into 0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:17.080 credit cards. Uh, they can buy just out of current 0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:21.000 cash flow and that's what's really driving the growth. Are 0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:25.200 we talking about particular strata of customers though, Craig, surely 0:23:25.200 --> 0:23:30.960 those on food lines and visiting countries can't be doing this. Um. Again, 0:23:31.080 --> 0:23:34.400 it's it doesn't extend to everybody. Obviously, if you're if 0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:37.200 you're in a household where nobody has a job, you're 0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:42.280 focusing just on needs and not wants. But for the 0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:47.840 ninety plus percent of the American public, uh, that is 0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:52.639 financially healthy. Um, they are spending and uh and again 0:23:52.680 --> 0:23:56.320 they have a lot of available cash on hand to spend. UM. 0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:58.560 And you know, we're all hoping that you know, some 0:23:58.600 --> 0:24:04.080 of the financial aid coming out of Washington actually eventuates. 0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:07.080 But in the meantime, the consumers, you know, in the 0:24:07.400 --> 0:24:09.840 up four of the upper five, of the of the 0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:14.159 five quintiles, Uh, they are spending very sharply increase year 0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:17.800 of the year. So it's interesting. Correct, we've seen obviously 0:24:17.840 --> 0:24:23.600 a big pullback in UH, travel, hospitality spending by consumers. 0:24:23.600 --> 0:24:26.000 Do you think some of that's getting redirected into just 0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:30.680 buying stuff? Well, Uh, there is, there is a major 0:24:30.800 --> 0:24:35.320 rotation and spending and um. And with at the margin 0:24:35.520 --> 0:24:38.760