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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: or Tuesday, Week eleven episode. We're going to break down

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Speaker 1: the entire slate of NFL games. We're going to discuss

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Speaker 1: our exact decision our Simon says, going to start to

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Speaker 1: narrow down the option for a five faves to put

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Speaker 1: in The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them Contests two and three week. This past week,

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Speaker 1: Week ten, Matthew Stafford, he was our hero this week.

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Speaker 1: He could not light the magic lamp on our behalf again.

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Speaker 1: The Rams, who we had at minus one and a half,

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Speaker 1: kicked five field goals, fumbled their way out of scoring range,

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Speaker 1: penalized themselves out of a made field goal allowed in

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Speaker 1: third and twenty five conversion. Couldn't get those of us

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Speaker 1: who maybe bet the Rams plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: live through the back door from the Dolphins twelve with

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Speaker 1: a minute left, truly dominated Miami and the box score

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Speaker 1: and lost twenty three to Fife. Lie from Mark Tommy

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Speaker 1: John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion mikem Padre, my bff professional better sim In

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Speaker 1: Hunter L.

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Speaker 2: So I'm in Hey Chad, what's up? Brother dude?

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Speaker 1: Nine am this morning I get a text from my

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Speaker 1: personal Adam Schefter, who probably should have been focusing on

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Speaker 1: math at that moment, but instead was texting me that

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears talking about my kid. By the way,

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Speaker 1: at school. The Chicago Bears fired Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: We will discuss like for the purposes of the betting conversation.

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Speaker 1: Does this really matter as a life Bears fans. I

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Speaker 1: think this is treating the symptom, not the disease. It's

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Speaker 1: a classic Bears cheap out. It goes back for me

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Speaker 1: to whin they drafted Caleb Williams the number one question

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Speaker 1: why keep Matt ibra fluse? The main reason is because

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Speaker 1: mccaskey's are cheap, and they didn't want to fire a

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Speaker 1: coach with a year left on his deal and then

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Speaker 1: have to pay two coaches at one time. But he

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Speaker 1: had been a middling coach, an uninspiring coach, an uninspiring

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Speaker 1: choice for two seasons, and you draft one of the

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Speaker 1: most dynamic passers in a generation. Even if Caleb is

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Speaker 1: everything we hope he would be, the odds of a

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback leading his team's success are so freaking low.

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Speaker 1: Jaen Daniels is the exception. CJ. Stroud is the exception.

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Speaker 1: That is why we call him exception. No, this is

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Speaker 1: not what happens. So after year one, what's the scenario?

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Speaker 1: You are firing the coach and the whole staff starting

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Speaker 1: again in year two of Caleb's deal. You waited nearly

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Speaker 1: half of his rookie deal at that point. I'm so

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Speaker 1: frustrated with the McCaskey family. I'm so frustrated with the

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Speaker 1: decision to not pay out Matt Ebrifluse and hire a

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Speaker 1: new coach. Now they're fire and Waldron who is the

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Speaker 1: head scratcher of a hire anyways, we know they won't

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Speaker 1: backfill the new play caller. Simon you ready for this?

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Speaker 1: Do you know who the new play caller is?

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Speaker 2: I do not.

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Speaker 1: Thomas Brown. The name doesn't sound familiar. Thomas Brown has

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Speaker 1: an extensive amount of experience calling plays for number one

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Speaker 1: overall picks. Because who can forget how amazing Bryce Young

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Speaker 1: played last year and the way he dominated opponents and

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Speaker 1: grew his confidence playing for Thomas Brown. Brown can bring

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Speaker 1: that guidance and that magic to Caleb Williams. This team

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Speaker 1: is a training wreck for eight more weeks. What a

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Speaker 1: fucking waste.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 3: But it's also the season's going according to how we

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Speaker 3: thought it would, right. We bet they're under for the

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Speaker 3: win total just because it was gonna be tough in

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Speaker 3: this division. Do we know it was the best division

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Speaker 3: of football Chad, No, So it's it's only gonna get worse.

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Speaker 3: I don't think this is really a that big of

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Speaker 3: a deal, but I like the move for them, just

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Speaker 3: because the players apparently went to the head coach and

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Speaker 3: talked to him and just said, we need to basically

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Speaker 3: fire Shane Walder.

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Speaker 2: And they did it.

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Speaker 3: So to me, the fact that it's veteran players like

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Speaker 3: Keenan Allen and guys like that DJ Moore going in.

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Speaker 2: There, that's a big deal.

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Speaker 3: Like those guys, they're not a rookie, they're not scared

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Speaker 3: to speak up. They have been in the league a

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Speaker 3: long time. They've seen a lot of offense. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: obviously you're pissed off, but this could sparkle you. Guys

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Speaker 3: could steal this game, and that's that's something that the

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Speaker 3: line movements told us that the professionals clearly like this

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Speaker 3: move from the Bears cause they've been betting.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna dig into that. I definitely want to focus

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Speaker 1: on that and the opportunity and the possibility.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to focus on the negative.

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Speaker 2: There you go.

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Speaker 1: You know, well, listen, you know, I'm a very rationally

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Speaker 1: optimistic person. It's very hard for me to see the

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Speaker 1: downside in just about anything. So I'm gonna pull myself

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Speaker 1: up from the muck. We're gonna find a way to

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Speaker 1: get through this. We're gonna see the opportunity potentially betting

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Speaker 1: on the Bears. We're gonna recap the results of week

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Speaker 1: ten in our contest. We're gonna announce the winner of

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Speaker 1: our weekly cash prize. If you haven't, you still can

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Speaker 1: sign up for the Favorites Podcast, one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. We got up on

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Speaker 1: the other side of this atter read Huge Announcement. Huge

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Speaker 1: Announcement coming up first. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast

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Speaker 1: is presented by bet three sixty five and now new

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Speaker 1: don spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Congrats Week ten first place winner Ryane not Ryan.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if this guy was named after Ryan Samberg.

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Speaker 1: Ryan not Ryan went five and oh and missed the

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football tiebreaker by one yard. He takes home

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Speaker 1: our weekly thousand dollars cash prize. Nice job, Ryane, and

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Speaker 1: as always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's cuple

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Speaker 1: ward to the entry that finished dead fucking last in

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Speaker 1: the contest.

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Speaker 4: Have you had about the Lords loser?

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Speaker 1: He's a Louis about he still kids on try. This

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Speaker 1: week's producer Cup goes to JJ Stanton, who went zero

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Speaker 1: to five missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: three yards. JJ ease email out producer podcasts, actionnetwork dot com,

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Speaker 1: name your price. All right, here's the bit of business.

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Speaker 1: We had so much fun, Simon last year doing our

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Speaker 1: live events getting together with fans. We did them twice

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Speaker 1: last season, once during the playoffs, once during the regular season.

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Speaker 1: We are doing another live event, and this time, Simon,

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Speaker 1: we are doing it in your hometown, the fighting city

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Speaker 1: of Philadelphia. We are coming to Philly, baby, the city

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Speaker 1: of brotherly love, which makes sense because you are my bff,

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Speaker 1: you are my capadre, you are my brother in arms. Embedding,

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Speaker 1: we're nailing down the final details. There will be an

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Speaker 1: RSVP website. It's coming soon. If you were in North Jersey,

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Speaker 1: if you were come on down. If you were in

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Speaker 1: South Jersey, come across the bridge. If you were in Philly,

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Speaker 1: come visit us. We're gonna be in Center City one

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Speaker 1: month from today, December twelfth, We're going to a bar

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Speaker 1: called Wicked Wolf right there in Center City, drinks, live

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Speaker 1: Q and A with me Simon, Producer Matt Mitchell. It's

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Speaker 1: basically a happy hour event five pm to seven pm.

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Speaker 1: Come hang out with us. Then we're all going to

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Speaker 1: hang out for the Thursday night football game Rams Niners.

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Speaker 1: Mark your calendars now, come join us. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be a blast. We're going to have some drinks, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do a Q and A about the game, anything

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Speaker 1: else that's going on. Then we're going to watch a

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Speaker 1: great matchup between the Rams and the Niners that we

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Speaker 1: no doubt know. We'll have playoff implications. We'll let you

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Speaker 1: know when, and we're to RSVP in the days ahead.

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Speaker 1: All right, enough preamble, Simon. When I bought tickets for

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Speaker 1: my kids first NFL game to be at the Link

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Speaker 1: on Thursday night, Washington, Philadelphia as part of our When

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Speaker 1: Millman Turns eighteen three days, three Games sportacular, I did

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Speaker 1: not expect to get a Jaden Daniels Jalen Hurts battle

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Speaker 1: for first place, epic showdown, and yet this is what

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Speaker 1: we got. I got Jaden Daniels generational talent. I got

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Speaker 1: Philly fan base mentally on the edge because of Nick Sirianni.

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Speaker 1: Why has this line moved from three to three and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 3: It's a short weekend, they're the home team, right, that's

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Speaker 3: usually we always talk about that. That's such a big deal.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm shocked by it because it's so tempting

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Speaker 3: now to take that's Washington on this number, just because

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Speaker 3: this Eagles team has struggled against bad teams closing out

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Speaker 3: bad teams, let alone good offenses. But the books know that,

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Speaker 3: so they've moved this number just because they obviously need

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Speaker 3: some Washington money. It's been all Eagles money. But that

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Speaker 3: to me made sun Chat when it was at three, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: if it's three, you take the Eagles in that spot

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Speaker 3: against a young, inexperienced Washington team that's never been in

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Speaker 3: the spot before.

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Speaker 2: And we talked about it last week. Pittsburgh was a

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Speaker 2: true first test for this team.

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Speaker 3: Honestly though, I look back and that Arizona win was

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Speaker 3: a big deal win. Right, We've seen how good Arizona

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Speaker 3: has become. But that Pittsburgh game was a true test

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Speaker 3: because that's a legit defense and as good as James

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Speaker 3: Daniels did. He did struggle a little bit. This Eagles

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Speaker 3: secondary is pretty tough. Like these rookies we brought in,

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Speaker 3: they've been really good and this this defense has changed.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the linebackers we've batted to this team

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Speaker 3: have been good this year. So I knew coming in

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Speaker 3: it was gonna take a while for these guys learn

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Speaker 3: fangs defense. And you know that's the story when learning

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Speaker 3: a new defense. But that could be why the early

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Speaker 3: money has come in. Right, you have an Eagles team

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Speaker 3: at home that perceived to be the better team. They've

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Speaker 3: been here before as well, right, I mean, this is

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Speaker 3: not going to be new to Hurts playing for the division.

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Speaker 2: That's what this game is.

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Speaker 3: So for the Eagles, this feels like a must win.

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Speaker 3: With Washington, it really doesn't. I could still see that

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Speaker 3: even with their schedule, they will still be in this

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Speaker 3: to win the division against the Eagles. Eagles, they have

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Speaker 3: tough games remaining, so to me, this is more important

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Speaker 3: to them.

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Speaker 2: This is a must win to them.

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Speaker 3: Kind of makes sense that they were resting guys in

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Speaker 3: the third quarter because.

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Speaker 2: You know, this is such a big deal.

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Speaker 3: There was no reason to keep trotting Hurts out there

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Speaker 3: against that Dallas team. On the flip side, Washington was

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Speaker 3: in a battle. Like we talked about, that was a

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Speaker 3: playoff game until last second. It's a big deal in

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Speaker 3: a short week. So I'll probably eventually take this three

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Speaker 3: and a half. I'll probably give in, as you say

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Speaker 3: it right now, if this goes back to three, I'll

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Speaker 3: happily take the Eagles side.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna end up on the three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm hoping that some public exuberants for Jayden Daniels comes

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Speaker 1: in on Thursday. But you just said two things that

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Speaker 1: are really interesting, And when I was doing some research,

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Speaker 1: this is what stood out to me too. The Eagle

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Speaker 1: secondary Mitchell and Cooper Dejen. Cooper Degen right now is

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Speaker 1: the according to Pro Football Focus, the second highest rated

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Speaker 1: defensive back in coverage in the NFL this year. That's

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Speaker 1: how good he's been. And and he was getting pimped

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Speaker 1: a little bit during that Cowboys game. He made some

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Speaker 1: nice plays. He recovered the Ezekiel Elliott Fumbo, but Mitchell

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Speaker 1: made really nice plays and coverage.

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Speaker 4: Two.

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Speaker 1: But here's the other thing. We talked about Vic Fangio

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Speaker 1: and this defense, and we had sort of said this

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Speaker 1: team is still learning how to play this defense, and

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Speaker 1: we've seen them getting better and better their past car

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Speaker 1: their past rush as all of a sudden elite right

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Speaker 1: top range pass rush. According to Pro Football Focus, Jalen

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Speaker 1: Carter second race second rated interior defensive player for pass rush.

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Speaker 1: He's one year too late to guarantee us his Rookie

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Speaker 1: of the Year for defensive Rookie of the Year, which

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Speaker 1: is disappointing, but he's gotten really, really good. So those

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Speaker 1: I think are two reasons also why the number moved

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Eagles are a better team there.

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Speaker 3: We knew they were gonna be a better team coming

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Speaker 3: of the season, especially if the players they took, like

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Speaker 3: we talking the secondary worked out for him and it has.

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Speaker 3: That was the biggest hole we talked coming in the season.

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Speaker 3: They could not stop anyone in the middle of the field. Defensively,

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Speaker 3: they attacked that this offseason. Offensively, they couldn't pass against

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Speaker 3: the blitz or Itch was terrible against the Blitz. They

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Speaker 3: figured that out as well. So it's like a team

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Speaker 3: that we thought we better. The surprise of the season

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Speaker 3: has been Washington. So it just feels like all the

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Speaker 3: pressure in this matchup's definitely on the Eagles. And that's why,

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Speaker 3: like you just said, it's like I don't mind taking

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Speaker 3: the three and a half if we lose it. It's like, well,

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Speaker 3: so what did you think was gonna happen?

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Speaker 2: The Eagles are the better team here.

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Speaker 3: It's just really about playing this number where this Eagles team,

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Speaker 3: I don't trust him this year.

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Speaker 2: I just haven't.

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Speaker 3: I know they've turned things around here, but like this

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Speaker 3: just seems like a game they would let down and disappoint.

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Speaker 3: So I see we were coming one and take the

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Speaker 3: three and a half, but I honestly would be more

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Speaker 3: comfortable taking the three. So I'm hoping it gets back

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Speaker 3: to the three because it it seems like a good

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Speaker 3: spot to keep fading this Washington team. That's just I

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Speaker 3: mean again, we talked about going to last week they

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Speaker 3: were five to zero. Is a favorite straight up and

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Speaker 3: against the spread with a rookie quarterback. That was just

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Speaker 3: one of the crazy things we'd ever said. It makes

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Speaker 3: sense for them to start coming back down to earth

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Speaker 3: here as we get later into the season.

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Speaker 1: Well, look the other thing we said, and it's a

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Speaker 1: good transition to the Steelers and the Ravens, which is

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Speaker 1: the next game. The other thing we said about the

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Speaker 1: Commanders last week, and it's why we liked the Steelers

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Speaker 1: last week, is the Steelers by far the best pass

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Speaker 1: rush the Commanders would be facing so far this year,

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Speaker 1: and it kind of showed like Jaden Daniels was rushed

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Speaker 1: a lot, he was sacked, They were in the backfield.

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Speaker 1: A lot of those third downs that he normally would

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Speaker 1: be converting with his feet or by rolling out, they

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Speaker 1: weren't converting. Similar situation here on the pass rush likely

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Speaker 1: to come up the middle, which is an entirely different

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Speaker 1: thing for him, demand even scarier sometimes. So I don't

285
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Speaker 1: mind being on the Eagles. I'm not Russian about the

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Speaker 1: three and a half. What I said was, I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: it gets to three. So when I'm sitting in the

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Speaker 1: link and I'm able to legally bet in the state

289
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Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, I'm hammering the Eagles at minus three. But

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be disciplined. If it's not there, it's

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Speaker 1: not there. Home team is, by the way, seven to

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Speaker 1: three on Thursday Night this year against the spread, but

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Speaker 1: twenty eight and forty three since twenty twenty. From twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty to twenty three, all right, Baltimore to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: plus three discuss this Sunday night. There's no reason not

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Speaker 1: to back the Steelers in the spot. It got up

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Speaker 1: to three and a half yesterday immediately came down. Wise

298
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Speaker 1: guys are moving this. The wise guy money is on

299
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Speaker 1: the Steelers considerably more tickets on the Ravens. That's the split.

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Speaker 1: So that tells you it's a pros Joe's game. Has

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Speaker 1: anything changed for you Sunday?

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Speaker 3: No, this is a Joe public bet, and we talked

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Speaker 3: about it Sunday night. So there are still three and

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Speaker 3: a halfs out there at the public like kind of

305
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 3: the Joe Public books, So you're able to bet there.

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Speaker 3: I would definitely go grab that because I I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I just this has to be three by kickoff. I

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Speaker 3: just think they moved to three and a half because

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Speaker 3: they need the money. That's the only thing makes sense

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Speaker 3: to me. This This line feels like a three line

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Speaker 3: should be a three line. We understand the Ravens offense

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Speaker 3: is one of the best offenses we've seen, especially this season.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they're just a juggernaut. The things Lamar can do.

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Speaker 3: Like I really did think they were dead in that

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Speaker 3: since the game. It was just all going wrong, and

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Speaker 3: you just give him a little bit of life if

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Speaker 3: you can get in a little bit of a rhythm, Lamar,

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Speaker 3: he turns it on.

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Speaker 2: It's it's unstoppable. It's like it's crazy how good he's playing.

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Speaker 3: And you know, I don't know if he's still favor

321
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Speaker 3: for MVP, but it like it's hard to deny it.

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Speaker 3: It's like there's no one else like him in the league,

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Speaker 3: his style of play. So I see why the public's

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Speaker 3: coming in on them, like they're just it's an easier

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Speaker 3: bet to make, it's more comfortable. I still think they

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Speaker 3: fully trust this Pittsburgh team despite beating their darling in Washington.

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Speaker 3: And I mean you talk about like this is just

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Speaker 3: us playing a number at three and a half, especially

329
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Speaker 3: in contests at Pittsburgh at home, a divisional game against

330
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Speaker 3: this Ravens team, but they've always done well against This

331
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Speaker 3: is the only team that Lamar really struggles against in

332
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Speaker 3: the division especially, So uh yeah, I like Pittsburgh, Like

333
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Speaker 3: the number Tomlin is a dog. It's just good to us.

334
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Speaker 3: It's same thing as last week, like it's not easy

335
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Speaker 3: bet against these great quarterbacks, which mean you said last week.

336
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Speaker 3: It's not easy betting against Jane Daniels. Same thing here

337
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 3: with Lamar. It's it's just trusted the number, taking the

338
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 3: three and a half and trusting this defense in this

339
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 3: matchup that they've done so well because they've seen Lamar

340
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Speaker 3: so much. They know exactly how to plan because they've

341
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Speaker 3: just seen it so much. Just the only fear to

342
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,639
Speaker 3: me is the Derrek Henry effect. I don't know how

343
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Speaker 3: that's gonna affect this matchup because he is such a

344
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Speaker 3: game changer. So that's gonna be the one big thing

345
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Speaker 3: I'll be watching this game is how they perform against

346
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Speaker 3: Derek Henry early on, because we've seen it even since

347
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Speaker 3: he was able to shut him down. If you can

348
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Speaker 3: get him not if you can just shut him down

349
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Speaker 3: for a little bit, they'll go away from it.

350
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Speaker 2: Oh eventually, just let it be.

351
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Speaker 3: A pass happy offun swhich Lamar has been dominant this season.

352
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Speaker 2: But you know, you take what you can get.

353
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Speaker 3: I'd rather have Lamar pass than Derek Henry running for

354
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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty yards.

355
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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is so far and away the favorite to

356
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Speaker 1: win MVP right now. I'm not kidding. I'm looking at

357
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 1: the Action Network site as we speak, he is minus

358
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 1: one ten to be MVP. When is the last time

359
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: we saw an odds on favorite for MVP after ten

360
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:38,239
Speaker 1: weeks as a minus favorite.

361
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 2: And someone's not leading their division? Yeah? God, that's yeah,

362
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 2: that is pretty crazy. Is that guy?

363
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,679
Speaker 1: That feels like a story. Someone's got to do a

364
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: story about that. Matt Mitchell, get on that rally the troops.

365
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,199
Speaker 1: Someone's got to do a story about Lamar Jackson being

366
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Speaker 1: a minus one ten favorite at this point for MVP

367
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Speaker 1: in the season. Evan, when's the last time that happened?

368
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 1: Somebody give me some answers.

369
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is crazy.

370
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Speaker 1: So look, everything you said is true. Whenever we're better,

371
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Speaker 1: and we've done this a couple times with the Steelers,

372
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Speaker 1: and we've we've held our nose and done it this year,

373
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Speaker 1: including this week against the Commanders. Like Tomlin is fifty

374
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 1: eight against this fifty eight percent against the spread against

375
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Speaker 1: teams over five hundred. He's the most profitable coach in

376
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Speaker 1: a generation as a dog at home nineteen six and

377
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: three seventy six percent as a dog overall sixty six percent.

378
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh is a favorite forty two percent in this game.

379
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: Between Tomlin and Harbaugh, Ravens and Steelers. The underdog has

380
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 1: won has covered seventy nine percent of the time, including eighteen,

381
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 1: two and three when the number is three or more.

382
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 1: Lamar as a favorite of more than three thirty four

383
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Speaker 1: percent against the spread.

384
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Speaker 3: So that's that's a no brainer automatic in our contest

385
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 3: of three and a half. I mean, we knew got

386
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: going in those trends only back up exactly how we

387
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 3: play this when we think about it.

388
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Speaker 2: So that's great to hear.

389
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, the hard thing with this is always

390
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: is it just too obvious? Are we missing it? Are

391
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 1: we trying to catch a falling knife? With the Steelers?

392
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: Can you remember that they do this all the time

393
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 1: with Doug Hodges? Right right?

394
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Speaker 3: That's that's my point to you want it's like, did

395
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: we bet this number with Mason Rudolph? We have to

396
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 3: bet this with Russell Wilson at least he's like not

397
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 3: a functioning quarterback.

398
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Speaker 1: I don't know why it makes this one sort of

399
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 1: all right?

400
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,120
Speaker 2: Simon says it. We gotta make it, sim say, Simon says,

401
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 2: Simon says three and a half, go grab it. When

402
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 2: Simon says, we do what Sion?

403
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: Were you not planning on doing that.

404
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: No, there's another game, but that just I sent a

405
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 3: little bit of doubt in the forcing you a young one.

406
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 2: I need to bring you back around. This is this

407
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 2: is the game we always bet.

408
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 1: I've already bet it. You can look. You can look

409
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 1: in the app. I grabbed it a three and a half.

410
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 1: I've made two bets so far. Both of them are

411
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 1: based on conversations we had on Sunday, but I don't know.

412
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 1: Just like in for the same reasons you sort of

413
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 1: waivered on the Cults bills on Sunday because of Josh Allen,

414
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: a waiver on the waiver because of Lamar Minnesota at

415
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee Tennessee plus six come down to skosh teeny tiny

416
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: half point. Yeah, this is a tricky game, dude.

417
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 2: Like you know what you have to do in this game.

418
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 1: I know, But let me run through it a little bit.

419
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 1: Let me break it down for people and let me

420
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 1: see if it sort of illuminates. We can play a

421
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 1: little guessing game for listeners and see if they end

422
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 1: up on the same side. I mean, look, Sam Donold

423
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: has become quite pumpkinish since week five, right, He's now

424
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: tied for the lead league in interceptions with Gino Smith

425
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 1: and Jordan Love with ten started the season with eleven

426
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: touchdowns in the first month, only six since then, could

427
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: not score against Indianapolis, could not score against Jacksonville multiple

428
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: interceptions in that game, bad interceptions. Neither of those defenses

429
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: are as good as Tennessee's. And believe me, I do

430
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,959
Speaker 1: feel like I am the king of I'm sick of

431
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: hearing fascile broadcasters say, well, Dannessee defense is really good.

432
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 1: They're leading the league in yards per game, Like that

433
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 1: is a stupid, superficial stat. There's so much stuff that

434
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 1: goes into why a team might lead the league in

435
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: few as yards per game, and it's not always because

436
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: they've just got a really good defense. But Tennessee did

437
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: play the Chargers. Even in the box score, they were

438
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: undone by seven sacks, a couple that sort of turned

439
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: potential touchdown drives into field goals. So I got other stuff.

440
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: But before I get there, talk to me.

441
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, just I feel like I mean, we didn't even

442
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 3: talk about that. Minnesot GAMESA the night, but it was historical.

443
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 3: No team had whatever it was. He had three or

444
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 3: four turnovers, they didn't score a touchdown and they still

445
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 3: won the game. I don't think that had ever happened

446
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,880
Speaker 3: before an NFL history or something crazy like that. But

447
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: that says more about the Jaguars than anything else, right,

448
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:34,719
Speaker 3: especially to you. I don't know if you watch any

449
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 3: of that game, because who would, But we bet the

450
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 3: under because our guy shot doctor Nick gave it out

451
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,479
Speaker 3: and they scored that opening touchdown. Mac Jones is barking

452
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 3: at the defense like legit talking shit. This guy Mac

453
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 3: Jones proceeded to get I think seventy five yards. The

454
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: rest of the game just a total clown show. But yeah,

455
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 3: this Minnesota team, It's like I said, coming the year,

456
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: I underrated their defense.

457
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: That was definitely a blind spot and missed by me.

458
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 3: But I think everything I mean you talk about coming

459
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 3: to year about Sam Donald has rung true. And it's

460
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: like Kevin O'Connell is that good of a guy. He

461
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: could scheme it up early on. But once the defense

462
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 3: has figured out what this, what they were doing, and

463
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 3: what Sam Donald can do, they've taken it away. And

464
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: you've seen him just struggle now, especially trying to throw

465
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 3: in the middle of the field, which feels like we're

466
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 3: all of his interceptions app you just can't see the

467
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: guy coming out of his blind spot that just keeps

468
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 3: picking off a guy he thinks is open.

469
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: And if this.

470
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: Isn't the spot for Tennessee, I don't know when it is.

471
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: This has to be the bottom. You can't get any lower,

472
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: and it sucks. We had a six and a half.

473
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 3: It's now gone. Most books are at six, which is

474
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 3: unfortunate because I really wanted at six and a half,

475
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 3: and at contest i'd felt comfortable putting six and a

476
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: half fits five.

477
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: And a half.

478
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna let us take a bad number on

479
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 3: this Tennessee team because they're that bad. Like, it's just

480
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 3: I want the best of the number, especially on betting

481
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 3: this bad of a team on freaking well Levis against

482
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 3: this really good Vikings defense.

483
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 2: So this has to be it.

484
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: This has to be the spot we buy the Tennessee

485
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 3: team because it's just it feels as low as you

486
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 3: can get, Like I have this number four and a half.

487
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 2: We're getting a ton of value here.

488
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: Listen at seat team, But I deep down don't want

489
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 3: to bet them because of Will Levis.

490
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: That's the honest truth.

491
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: Chet, Like, there's other games I like better on the board,

492
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: but I'm with you that this is definitely a number

493
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 3: on a spot we have to take this Tennessee team.

494
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: So that was my entire logic in the outline. We

495
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 1: look at this Viking's defense and they've basically been pretty

496
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 1: pretty predictable the past month that they've gotten lit up

497
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: by qbs who are can handle pressure, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff.

498
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: They've dominated Joe Flacco and Mac Jones. Right, And so

499
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: to me, the X factor here is Will Levis yea.

500
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: And in actually my notes I called it the ick factor.

501
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on Will Levis. I know

502
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: it's the right side. I know the number right now

503
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: still dictates a little bit of value, but I cannot

504
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: let this be one of our very precious five contest plays.

505
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: I think we agree.

506
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 2: Do you agree.

507
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 1: This one is really interesting? Cleveland and New Orleans. New

508
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 1: Orleans is now a one point underdog, one of the

509
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: biggest movers from Sunday night, I flagged this at Cleveland

510
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 1: plus three. To me, forget about any metrics. It was

511
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: purely and obviously all public perception. Right bookmakers posting a

512
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 1: number taking advantage of the euphoria around the Saints whin

513
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think any lingering thoughts of Jamis

514
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: from the week before played into it, but certainly it's possible.

515
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: At three, I really liked Cleveland. I think I still

516
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 1: like them at one, but a lot less.

517
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say I'd be okay with them at

518
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 3: three or two, two and a half.

519
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: But there's no way I bet this now.

520
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: I honestly lean towards the Saints team just because this

521
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: Cleveland team they're just bad.

522
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 2: They're a bad team in James Flinston's.

523
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: Bad and like, overall, I know they're coming off of

524
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 3: BI week here and this is I guess there's a

525
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 3: spot for them to take and fade of the Saints.

526
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 3: But this is another game I'm happy to sit out.

527
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, I don't want to bet anything on

528
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 3: the Saints again. I really don't want to bet Cleveland

529
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: at a bad number.

530
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: Now. I felt like, dude, the Saints, we had our taste. Yeah,

531
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: it was a delicious meal.

532
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: It's like they had its moments.

533
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: You know, it's like trying the poison fish. It could

534
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: be the greatest meal you ever have in your life.

535
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: I don't know that I have the stomach to try

536
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: it again.

537
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 2: I do not at all.

538
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: Browns defense still one of the tops, and pressure rates

539
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 1: top three, top seven for overall.

540
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the unders, you can have fun there.

541
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: Yeah that's true. But like, but also as much as

542
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: we hate there, Like, he is actually better against pressure

543
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: than almost anyone football top three in big time, throws

544
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: you near the lowest percentage of turnover worthy plays. So like,

545
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: you know, he is a quarterback who has seen it.

546
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 3: But yeah, he's one of the best quarterbacks throwing a

547
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: deep ball when he knows he's about to get punched

548
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 3: in the face of someone's helmet. Like, he is so

549
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 3: good at it, he needs it. It's the only time

550
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 3: if you know one's coming at him, he will sell

551
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: that ball twenty yards too deep. If he's about to

552
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: get hit, it's gonna be right on step for that

553
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 3: wide receiver.

554
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's truly a psychopath.

555
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: Say this about the Car brothers and whatever was happening

556
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 1: in the Car family, those are the two losing his

557
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and the history of the NFL, no joke. If

558
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: you look at like career records at fifty games, sixty games,

559
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: seventy games, like, there is no two quarterbacks who have

560
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: lost more games than these two guys at various thresholds,

561
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: but they can take a fucking beating. These two guys,

562
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: like it is insane, how willing they are to just

563
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: stand there and get punched in the freaking face.

564
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: I don't know that another life they would just would

565
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 3: have been bull riders, but instead they were quarterbacks the NFL.

566
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: That's the type of true, so true, just a couple

567
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: of rodeo guys. I covered the rodeo once. Kingfisher, Oklahoma

568
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: covered the the only female bull rider on the male

569
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 1: rodeo circuit. One of her events, she got knocked off

570
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: the bull, ended up in the hospital, had to get stitches.

571
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: Her thirteen year old daughter was with her. It was rough.

572
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: I got got out of Kingfisher right away. Jacksonville at Detroit,

573
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: oh my god.

574
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: You guys just kept banging away right. We did whatever

575
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 4: we had to do. And I'll just say this again,

576
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 4: this is what great teams do. This is what great

577
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 4: teams do. Even when you're having an off day, you

578
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 4: find a way.

579
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: Man. Detroit is a thirteen point favorite, nearly two touchdowns.

580
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: Oh goad, Okay, here's my question. Are the Lions the

581
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: Patriots exception? Do you know what I mean? Yeah, it

582
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what the line is. How many tickets are

583
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: backing them ninety six percent at this point, if they're

584
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: at home, I feel like we play them. Do you

585
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: put them in the contest? I don't know. Do I

586
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: like them more? Coming off of a terrible game?

587
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: I mean, it wouldn't be a worse decision of our

588
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: life at thirteen, I mean twelve and a half if

589
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 3: we got a twelve and a half in contest.

590
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: Honest to god, simon the number of bad decisions we

591
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: have made this year, Like, I would not feel bad

592
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: at all taking the lions if we can get a

593
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 1: good number in the contest, Like coin flip.

594
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: I'm just taking number now. I have it at fourteen.

595
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: I have it right on fourteen.

596
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: Well it's at thirteen right now, right.

597
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: So it's like, but we always we always just want them.

598
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: We we're greedy. We want the best number, specially may

599
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 2: have a favorite.

600
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: So just an amazing stat by Evan this is Detroit's

601
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 3: biggest favorite since nineteen ninety five.

602
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: It's pretty pretty incredible.

603
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence might be out for the year, so might

604
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: get more of Mac Jones. Yeah, you know you mentioned

605
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: how bad the Jaguars were, so you know, I love

606
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell at ESPN his Monday column as a staple

607
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: for me. He had these notes about the Jags before Sunday,

608
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: no team had lost a game in which it allowed

609
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: zero touchdowns, offensive touchdowns and forced three picks since the

610
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: year two thousand. Teams had gone ninety three oh in

611
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: that range across the final forty five minutes the Jaguars produced.

612
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: You just mentioned how many yards the Jaguars produced, sixty

613
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: two net yards on offense, the seventh few is produced

614
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: by any team in the final three quarters the past decade.

615
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: But here's a good comp We all remember COVID. We

616
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 1: all remember when the Broncos had to have a game

617
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: where wide receiver Kendall Hinton had to start hinting and

618
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: the Broncos had twenty four more yards of offense in

619
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: the final three quarters of their loss to the Saints

620
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: than Jones and the Jags did in Week ten. Keep

621
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: fucking talking Mac Jones. While you're doing it, We're going

622
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: to fade the Jags as two touchdown underdogs on the

623
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 1: road against a Lions team that had a miraculous comeback

624
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: but showed their medal and are in the driver's seat

625
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: to finish first in the NFC. Love It, Take It,

626
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 1: Book It, Green Bay at Chicago, Chicago plus six. So

627
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: it was six and a half on Sunday.

628
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, like the most public side of the week other

629
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: than that that Detroit game.

630
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what that means.

631
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 2: Speak for yourself.

632
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: Well, look, you almost convinced me on Sunday night, and

633
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: I try to sort of remove myself from where I

634
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: was mentally on the Bears and just look at this

635
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: sort of rationally right. So it's down to six home

636
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: division dogs of six or more the past ten year,

637
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: barely over fifty percent against the spread. That also includes,

638
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: by the way, that this past week and the Cowboys

639
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: losing home division dogs this season eight fifteen and one,

640
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: twenty four, thirty seven and three forty percent past two years.

641
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: That includes the Cowboys and the Colts losing this weekend.

642
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: Do you guys get anyone back on the offensive line.

643
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: I haven't seen the updates yet. Obviously that's a massive,

644
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: massive Issue's.

645
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 2: That's the biggest issue. Yeah, jar hasn't done a touchdown

646
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: on what three weeks.

647
00:33:55,400 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: Look, if Thomas Brown can pull out that magic made

648
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: Bryce Young so comfortable last year and put them in

649
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: so many positions to succeed. And the Bears get a

650
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: little bit of help on offense, protecting Caleb Williams and

651
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen can get any separation, and Dj Moore can

652
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: actually run a route, Roma Doonsay can catch a ball.

653
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 3: You had a good game yesterday. But I don't know

654
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 3: to do this because I want to take the Bears.

655
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 3: But it's it's you know, this is the Classic. This

656
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 3: is as low as it gets for this team.

657
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it might get lower if they lose this game.

658
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 3: It's only going to keep getting lower. That's the thing here.

659
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 3: It's like, are we at the bottom yet? I don't know,

660
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 3: because this is just a brutal spot for this Bears team.

661
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,839
Speaker 3: They're playing a team in the Packers, that really needed

662
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: a week off to get healthy.

663
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 2: They got it.

664
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: Now they're coming in here against a team that is

665
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: just We talked about that that game was either gonna

666
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 3: break them or make them that Washington game, and right now, Chad,

667
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 3: through two weeks, it's broken them. I mean, they just

668
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 3: got rolled by Arizona and then just no showed at

669
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 3: home to New England.

670
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 2: So I just I can't have faith in killablellions. That's

671
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 2: my issue.

672
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: If you guys had a veteran leader at quarterback and

673
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: maybe I'd be around, Like flip it. We already we

674
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: talked coming this year. This kid hadn't been dealt with adversary.

675
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 3: His adversary was at USC losing to whatever it was

676
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 3: Washington State in the Pac twelve and like that that

677
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 3: was tough. It's like, I don't know, it's just tough

678
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 3: for me to want to back them here. So if

679
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 3: we don't take it, I'm cool with that too, because

680
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: I know you.

681
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: Don't want to. You don't want to go against your

682
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 2: team here.

683
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 3: But I'm most likely going to end up on the

684
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 3: Packers here, even if it's a bad number like six

685
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 3: six and a half.

686
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: Well, that's kind of where I was starting to lean.

687
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: I think you you might have misspoke for a second

688
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: ago because you said you want to take the Bears.

689
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: And I do, but I can't do it.

690
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, I kind of can't get there. I'm

691
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: leaning Packers. I know the situation the Bears defense is

692
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: actually fine. I mean, Ibra Flues should just be a

693
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. You know, there's still top five and e

694
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 1: pa their pass rush is great. Jordan Love is having

695
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: a very inconsistent mediocre year, not very I.

696
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 2: Do want to say he's been hurt. I know he's

697
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: been injured, like obviously super upset. He's been hurt bad. Yeah,

698
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: I mean that's excusable, right.

699
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: And so he's going against a defense that can do damage.

700
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 1: Like the one strength the Bears have is rushing the

701
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: passer and in coverage, and so I do think that's

702
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 1: an edge. But if these and also the Packers have

703
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: no pass rush and they've traded away like Preston Smith

704
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 1: who might have been the only guy.

705
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 2: How many sacks in New England have Chad nine sacks?

706
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: That's my point.

707
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 2: New England didn't have a pass rush. Yeah.

708
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 1: The problem is I just don't know. I don't know

709
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 1: anything about this offensive line yet. Yeah, years of ed

710
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,439
Speaker 1: what eleven players play thirty snaps on the offensive line.

711
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: So it's like, I think we need more intel. I'm

712
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: going to put a flag in it. I'm going to

713
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 1: bring it back on Thursday and like what we've learned

714
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: about the offensive line on Thursday, I'll make a note.

715
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 1: I just put it in my in my Favorites notebook. Listen, Simon,

716
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned the top of the show that we're coming

717
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 1: to you live from our Tommy John Home studios. Great

718
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,880
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719
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Speaker 1: They made us so comfortable that I believe we won

720
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Speaker 1: our big balls better the week this past week on

721
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. Yeah, I put on my Tommy

722
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 1: John this morning, and I thought such a bummer. I

723
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: thought I've been married thirty years and my wife could

724
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: care less what I look like, because I felt like

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00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: I never looked better. Our sponsor, Tommy John makes the

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Speaker 1: When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better. If you

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Speaker 1: love Simon and I. If you love this show, you

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732
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 1: Las Vegas visiting Miami seven and a half. Wise, guys,

733
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: love the Raiders right now? Oh yeah, love the Raiders

734
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Kent, Kent, Kent, deny it

735
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 1: like you're getting the hook right now. Fifty eight percent

736
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Dolphins fifty eight percent of

737
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: the money on the Raiders. Like, I watched that game

738
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: until the Dolphins converted a third and twenty five and

739
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: went to bed. The Rams kind of dominated that game.

740
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 1: To me, this is only about the number. There's no

741
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: reason to look at this and think, yeah, the Raiders

742
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: have a chance. It's just about the hook.

743
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just football, right, Like we bet this stupid

744
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 3: number plenty of times on the team we didn't really leaving.

745
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: But it's the same with Miami.

746
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 3: You just said we don't really believe in Miami either, Like,

747
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: we have a lot of questions about this Miami team

748
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 3: that still have not really been answered. They're just they're

749
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: just not the team they were last year. That's the

750
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 3: hardest part for me is I keep thinking they are

751
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:14,959
Speaker 3: the team from last year and they're really not. And

752
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: like I wanted to take them in this spot, right

753
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: because they're at home, especially the Raiders, having the Raiders

754
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: in their black jerseys in that sun at home, this

755
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 3: would be an automatic smash spot.

756
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:26,720
Speaker 2: They're going to be dead by the fourth quarter.

757
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 3: I'm with you, happy to throw a little on the Raiders,

758
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: and if the Raiders are winning heading into the second half,

759
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: I will put a decent amount of money on the

760
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 3: Dolphins going to the second half, and that would probably

761
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 3: be the play for me.

762
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.

763
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: It's a game that, like I feel, even though it's gross,

764
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 3: I'd rather take Tennessee than take this Raiders team. It's

765
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 3: just me and you both thought that the Raiders felt

766
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,439
Speaker 3: like they quit a couple of weeks ago, and that's

767
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 3: the fear with betting this team right now.

768
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: They might have simply just quit.

769
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 1: Uh Luke Getzi was the former offensive coordinator for the

770
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. Other coordinator other than the Bear's coordinator fired

771
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: mid season. Los Angeles Rams at the New England Patriots,

772
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: New England Patriots four and a half kind of one

773
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: of the bigger moves on the board, very big move

774
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: since the Monday night game. Was it five and a half?

775
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 1: Moved to four and a half. Betting tickets on the

776
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: Rams the money coming in on New England. I'll be honest,

777
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: that feels overreaching to me.

778
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, were supposed to take the Rams here?

779
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 3: That Yeah, it's just a pure overreaction to this previous

780
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 3: week where the Patriots.

781
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 2: Did they look that great? Did you watch a lot

782
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: of Chicago Gamer?

783
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: No, of course, I did well.

784
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 3: I didn't watch much. I don't really know how this

785
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 3: Patriots team did. But it felt like it was more

786
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 3: about Chicago beating themselves than it was the Patriots beating them.

787
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: And no, it was it was two things. It was

788
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: a yeah, I mean the offensive line. Look, you get

789
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: sacked nine times, right, you know you're going to lose

790
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 1: the game. Caleb couldn't throw the ball, held on to

791
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: the ball too long, or they were all over him

792
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: the second it happened. But the Bears couldn't stop anybody

793
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 1: running the ball. They were truly terrible stopping to run.

794
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: So it was an impressive effort by the Patriots. But

795
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 1: this is a massive overreaction to me, I don't get

796
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: the move.

797
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: Actually yeah, but I understand that point.

798
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: If you're a professional, you just don't trust or like

799
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,320
Speaker 3: this Rams team, which I know a lot of professionals.

800
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: We talked to gun the last week. There were some pros.

801
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: Big money came in on Miami, the same guys that

802
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 3: came in the week before in the Seahawks, And it

803
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 3: makes sense they're doing it right here, like they just

804
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 3: they think something's off with the Rams, and it's hard

805
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,439
Speaker 3: to argue against it. Where you got Stafford Now six

806
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 3: straight games with an interception, that's a big deal, Like

807
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 3: that's nothing, just a poop pooh. It's like, well, you'd

808
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 3: have his weapons back for half of those, okay, but

809
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 3: he's had his weapons back and it just has not

810
00:41:58,960 --> 00:41:59,479
Speaker 3: looked the same.

811
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I.

812
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: Doubt you're doing it. But I watched all twenty two

813
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 3: because I was like, okay, what am I missing? What

814
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 3: is staff or not reading? And there were guys shrieking downfield,

815
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 3: but he was just scared of getting hit last night,

816
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 3: so he was just kept taking the underneath like he

817
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 3: didn't look deeper. He did have guys downfield, and you know,

818
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 3: coming to that game, he had him been sacked in

819
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 3: two weeks. They brought in their starters and that reshuffled

820
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,839
Speaker 3: for some reason, affected them negatively that offensive line last night.

821
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 3: So U in this matchup against his Patriots team, I

822
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 3: don't think that d line's that good. I know they

823
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 3: had nine sacks last week, but we just talked about

824
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 3: I think it was really about the Bears team. So

825
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 3: if we're gonna bet them in a bounce back spot,

826
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 3: this feels like the spot of this Rams team. But

827
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 3: it's when you just kind of nailed it. I'm not

828
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 3: gonna rush to bet. If the professionals are gonna bet

829
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 3: it down, I can possibly get a four.

830
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:46,879
Speaker 2: I'll wait.

831
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 3: I'll throw a little right now in the four and

832
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 3: a half. But this this feels like it's gonna bean

833
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: that that middle zone. We'll I'll go back up to

834
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 3: five five and a half by kickoff. It just this

835
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 3: will be one of the more teas teams this week,

836
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 3: in this Rams team, because they're now four and five.

837
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 3: They know this is a muss when I can't really

838
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 3: see them overlooking this Patriots team and just you know,

839
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 3: go in there and struggle.

840
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:10,439
Speaker 1: It was a frustrating game to watch the Rams last

841
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: night because you kept feeling like they're moving, they're moving,

842
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: they're unlocking, they're unlocking, and then they would just get

843
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: stuck like the Gears would.

844
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 2: N Everything wrong, everything nail. Everything was going wrong. The penalties,

845
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 2: the fumbles, it was.

846
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: Just bad snaps, like.

847
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you kicked five, they kicked five field goals, it

848
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 3: was or they kicked six and they missed one.

849
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: It was crazy.

850
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: They missed one, they kicked six, made it and then

851
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 1: got pushed back five yards because of the penalty, and

852
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 1: then missed it. Yeah, brutal road favorites of three points

853
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: or more off of a loss as a favorite at

854
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 1: home fifty eight percent against the spread since two thousand

855
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: and three.

856
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: That makes sense.

857
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 1: So another reason why, Like immediately this move felt felt wrong,

858
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 1: Evan backed it up with a little bit of research,

859
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 1: so I feel better about it. But I'm with you.

860
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: I'm putting it on the board as an option. I'm

861
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 1: not rushing to the window.

862
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 3: It feels like the right reaction from the public though,

863
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 3: Like you just said that, watching that Rams team last

864
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 3: night was disgusting.

865
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 2: That was brutal. It was like literally painful to watch.

866
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: It was discussing, and they still should have.

867
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: Won, right, So I get where they're coming from.

868
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: That.

869
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 3: I can see why the early money would come in

870
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: on the Patriots.

871
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: It makes sense.

872
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:26,879
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think it's the wrong move.

873
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: Indianapolis at the New York Jets, New York Jets are four.

874
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 1: Oh god, uh dude, you got to explain something to me.

875
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 2: Talk to me.

876
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: This line has moved from three to three and a

877
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: half to four. At that three six five. The majority

878
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: of the tickets are on the Jets, so this is

879
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: clearly a public move the money is basically evenly split.

880
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 1: We talked about this game on Sunday night and we

881
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: both kind of liked the Colts.

882
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the Colts. I'm shocked that the money moved

883
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: it up the fence.

884
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 1: This doesn't make any sense to me.

885
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 2: It doesn't. But maybe we're just a sucker for this

886
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: Colts team. But it's like.

887
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 3: Every week, it just feels like they've been unlucky these

888
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,399
Speaker 3: last couple of weeks. And that's the issue where it's

889
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 3: like we can see how they're a good team and

890
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 3: they're a good offense, and.

891
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 2: That their defense isn't as terrible as Super Seed. I

892
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 2: mean even last week.

893
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 3: I know that the Bills blew them out, but I

894
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 3: feel like Josh Allen didn't throw for a touchdown, he

895
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 3: had what two interceptions, Like he didn't play great against them,

896
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 3: Like there are ways to attack teams with this Colts defense.

897
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's so tough one buddy.

898
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 3: But I'm trying not to react to it because the

899
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 3: same thing happened to the Jets last week and I

900
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 3: didn't react to it. Where it's like I know that

901
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 3: there is smart guys coming on this Jets team. Can't

902
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 3: fault them for this team has a ton of talent.

903
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: But you nailed it.

904
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 3: You said it with Colherd, like they don't have a coach.

905
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 3: That's a big issue right now in the NFL if

906
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 3: you don't have a head coach. I don't think that

907
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:58,240
Speaker 3: the Jets have a head coach. So I'll be patient.

908
00:45:58,320 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 3: Maybe if there are some on the four here, but

909
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 3: that would be amazing. He got the four and a

910
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 3: half on this Colt's number, Like, that's that's where I

911
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 3: feel comfortable Ben Joe Flakcker right now, because he's been

912
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 3: so bad these last couple of weeks.

913
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: Hey, mister Roger Ebert of NFL Film Watching, did you

914
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 1: watch the Aug twenty two on the Colts Bills. No,

915
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 1: you did not, because it sounded like, for a second

916
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 1: you were about to say what I said on Sunday night,

917
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: which is the Colts weren't awful in that game. They

918
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 1: had four bad plays.

919
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 2: What I said, their defense wasn't the Joe Flacco was

920
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 2: he had three turnovers.

921
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, four bad plays, really four bad And by the way,

922
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 1: in sixteen minutes of play, four bad plays, that's really

923
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: not that bad if you really, if you boil it down,

924
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 1: if you look at the totext of the number of plays,

925
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: I feel like we're a little bit for Love and

926
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: the Colts here. The Jets rush defense is terrible bottom

927
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: third and just about every advanced metric from EPA per

928
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: rush to rush yards allowed over expectations to misstackles. And

929
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: if you watch that game against the Cardinals, they tackled nobody.

930
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 1: It was embarrassing.

931
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 3: Sauce has gone from an all pro to a guy

932
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 3: I don't even know if I'd won as my second

933
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 3: or third corner.

934
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 2: It's bizarre. His fall off in a year.

935
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: It's stunning. Right. And look, the Colts rushing offense, we

936
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: love them. I think that's I think this is sort

937
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: of our look at the end of the day, we're

938
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 1: probably a little old school, right, and this might be

939
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 1: our Achilles heel. The Colts offensive line as a rush

940
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 1: blocking unit is great. The Colts is a rushing offense

941
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 1: are great. Last week they had more than one hundred

942
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: and twenty yards on the ground. They averaged more than

943
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: five yards per carry. Like the things that we expected

944
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: to happen in that game happened in the way we

945
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 1: thought they would happen. I think that's why where we

946
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: have got a little bit of confirmation bias here because

947
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 1: they did the things we thought they would do, and

948
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: the Jets also just burned us. I think that that

949
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 1: those are our issues that we got to be aware

950
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 1: of right now. It'll look deep inside, you know what

951
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 1: I'm saying. Yeah, Okay, Atlanta at Denver it feels trappy

952
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: to me, feels like a huge.

953
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 2: Side because I really want to go to Atlanta.

954
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: Okay, you know what, so do I.

955
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think the numbers move too much.

956
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this numbers move from one and a half to two.

957
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 1: And by the way, I think it's because of wise

958
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 1: guy money.

959
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 2: Oh, it's definitely.

960
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't I think there's no chance that

961
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 3: bon Nicks could win rook of the Year just because

962
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 3: of how good Jane Daniels played this year and the

963
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,479
Speaker 3: way the schedules laid out. But if bone Knicks gets

964
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:55,799
Speaker 3: this team to nine wins, I think that would be

965
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 3: more impressive than what Jane Daniels has done, just because

966
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 3: all the shit on them, right. I mean, most guys

967
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: I know professionally that great out quarterbacks had a second

968
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 3: round grade on bow Knicks and they put pooh Sean

969
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 3: Payton and it's not just bon Knicks. Obviously, the defense

970
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 3: we've talked about their defense Denver has been much better

971
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 3: than a lot of us thought they would be. But

972
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 3: the bow next thing is just impressive. Like that drive

973
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 3: he had against Kansas City. I know he did nothing

974
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,399
Speaker 3: in that second half, but he did have a two

975
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 3: minute drive that put them in the position to kick

976
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 3: a short field goal. That was just big time. So

977
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 3: I wanted to take them Denver coming into this. I

978
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 3: was like, they're a team I believe, and I could

979
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 3: see their defense getting stop especially against this Atlanta team.

980
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 3: Atlanta gets no pass rush, which is gonna be great

981
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 3: for bow Knicks.

982
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 2: But at two and a.

983
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 3: Half, it feels like the value now is on Atlanta,

984
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 3: so I'll take it. But this isn't huge where it's

985
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 3: like we have to put this one in. But I

986
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 3: might fall in love with this beat come Thursday and

987
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 3: this weekend. It's just a good number on a veteran

988
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 3: guy like Kirk in this This Atlanta team against a

989
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 3: Broncos team that just had a really emotional loss in

990
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 3: a divisional game, and this would be a classic letdown

991
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 3: spot for them. On the flip side, this Falcons team

992
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 3: is going to be really pissed off like that was

993
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 3: a brutal loss against the Saints, and now they're on

994
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 3: the road again against this team. So yeah, really interesting

995
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 3: game this Mone because this is another game that fields

996
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: like a gross playoff game like these both these teams

997
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 3: can use to be in the playoffs this year.

998
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: And that's how I feel about this game.

999
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 1: Here, huge undervalued spot for Atlanta, which even though we

1000
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: love the Saints in that spot, yeah, you bet the

1001
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: Saints they could have won that game on Sunday, right

1002
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 1: they had. They had two miss field goals, including one

1003
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 1: with six minutes left, nearly five hundred yards of total offense,

1004
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,760
Speaker 1: nearly two hundred yards in the ground. Bijon is playing

1005
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:45,760
Speaker 1: lights out like he has been a phenomenal all around

1006
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: player this year. We talked about that run he had

1007
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 1: down the sideline, where like it should have been a

1008
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,479
Speaker 1: five ten yard game, but because he's so freaking fast,

1009
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, he's run by everybody and they're

1010
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: grasping at his shoulder pads and they can't get him

1011
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 1: and he scores a touchdown. The Broncos defense, we had

1012
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 1: some concerns heading into the Chiefs. We thought did the

1013
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 1: Ravens expose something. I don't think they did. I think

1014
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens were just awesome and the Broncos had a

1015
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 1: bad day. Proved a little bit of that against the

1016
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 1: chief fourth and pressure rate first and blitz percentage. Kirk

1017
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,439
Speaker 1: is a weird guy against pressure, like it tends to

1018
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,919
Speaker 1: not bother him. But there are a couple of outliers

1019
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 1: and stats where he's not great, especially when it comes

1020
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 1: to turnover worthy plays, and he himself is inviting pressure.

1021
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: So there's a cool stat like QB pressure rate is

1022
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 1: really based on how much blame do the quarterbacks shoulder

1023
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,399
Speaker 1: when they are pressured. He's fourth highest. I mean he's

1024
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 1: just holding the ball for a long time. Also, he

1025
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 1: can't move, so that's like what's giving me pause a

1026
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: little bit. Is the pressure component of this. So yeah,

1027
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: not a rush, But I'm with you. I'm glad we're

1028
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 1: on the same side here. We both like Atlanta Seattle

1029
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 1: at San Francisco minus six and a half. Like you

1030
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 1: suspected this was going to move from seven to six

1031
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 1: and a half, And I'm still trying to figure out

1032
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 1: why San Francisco deserves to be this much of a favorite.

1033
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 1: Right now, this feels entirely based on sort of public

1034
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: perception and expectations to me, not anything that we've actually

1035
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 1: seen from them on the field.

1036
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 2: I know. But the more I've looked at this, it's like.

1037
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 3: It makes sense in a lot of ways, just because

1038
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 3: the Seahawks have been that bad and Gino Smith has

1039
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 3: been that bad this season where we joked earlier the

1040
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 3: year he was like leading the league in yards, but

1041
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 3: it was like meaningless yards.

1042
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:49,439
Speaker 2: It was in the games where they were never really

1043
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 2: in it.

1044
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 3: And this team, I guess we could say of the

1045
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:57,399
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, this is this number. Now I feel

1046
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,439
Speaker 3: like it's not this high because the books are counting.

1047
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 3: Last week I got cover for some reason, like them.

1048
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: It's not like they're holding the field goals against them,

1049
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 3: because I'm with you, it's like I thought someone would

1050
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 3: come way down. It's hell, it at six and a

1051
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 3: half at this point, so I don't really have a

1052
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 3: bet on it. I wanted to be on the Seahawks,

1053
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 3: but I'm just hesitant. It's just I just don't really

1054
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:19,439
Speaker 3: trust them. And you said it were the forty nine ers,

1055
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 3: they might click, like they might finally start clicking and

1056
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 3: get everything running here smoothly. And it's like they're gonna

1057
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 3: be what they were last year, which is a really

1058
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 3: high powered offense.

1059
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: But when's that gonna be chat I think you're right.

1060
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 3: It's like we don't know because it's not the same

1061
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 3: team obviously, and they just haven't been this season. So

1062
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 3: it's one I'm not desperate to bet on the Seahawks,

1063
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 3: but I did want to kind of take them when

1064
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 3: they were at seven. Now that it's going down, it's like,

1065
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 3: I don't know, do I really have to force the

1066
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 3: betty on the Seahawks.

1067
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: So I think the offensive line has struggled. They just

1068
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 1: haven't been very good. They weren't that great going into

1069
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 1: the year. Yeah, and they've they've sort of always gotten

1070
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 1: by with it because Trent Williams is so good that

1071
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 1: all they had to do was really run some kind

1072
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 1: of zone scheme for Christian McCaffery or Nebo Samuel to

1073
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 1: that side of the line. It's been a struggle. You

1074
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,760
Speaker 1: noted before the year began, like his holdout might impact

1075
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 1: him in a way over the course of the year

1076
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: that we don't really understand the Seahawks. Meanwhile, they just

1077
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 1: released their leading tackler to Real Dotson, so That should

1078
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: tell you a little bit about how they feel about

1079
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: their roster and the direction they're headed right now. They're

1080
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 1: still they're trying to figure things out, you know. So

1081
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 1: it's it's a tough game, tough game to bet on. Confidently,

1082
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 1: Canada City at Buffalo Buffalo is a two and a

1083
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Look, this was Chiefs plus one on

1084
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 1: Sunday night. Professional betters have moved this to two and

1085
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 1: a half. There's nobody in the public betting on the Bills.

1086
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: You were adamant Sunday night that we just take the Chiefs.

1087
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 1: To me, like the this is like gut check, playing

1088
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 1: with fire. When does it regress? You know, all the

1089
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 1: things that make us nervous betting the Chiefs. They can't

1090
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,439
Speaker 1: keep doing it the way they keep winning. They've won

1091
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 1: nine games by a total of fifty six points. They

1092
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:26,160
Speaker 1: are underdogs to the Bills the fourth time in the

1093
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 1: Super Bowl era a nine to ohero team or better

1094
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 1: is listed as an underdog. Kansas City in twenty thirteen,

1095
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 1: the Bears in eighty five, the Rams in sixty nine,

1096
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 1: two and a half. How are we not pulling the

1097
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 1: trigger on the Chiefs?

1098
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 3: Thank god, you're getting me scared because this was this

1099
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 3: was like the forty nine Ers game all over again.

1100
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 3: When the Chiefs are in the year you were overthinking it.

1101
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 3: You wanted to be on the forty nine Ers. Then

1102
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 3: finally on Sunday you came around to the chief So

1103
00:55:59,120 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 3: I'm happy.

1104
00:55:59,640 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 2: Armed boy.

1105
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:03,399
Speaker 3: Don't ever think this. We bet with the public every

1106
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 3: now and then. This is starting to become a lesson

1107
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 3: of ours that it doesn't matter. Everyone knows it. You

1108
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 3: just bet it.

1109
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 2: And so what the professionals do?

1110
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 3: They bet against him in this spot because it is

1111
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 3: the logical move and everyone's model, which correctly made the

1112
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 3: Bills a favorite, because if you're just looking at this season,

1113
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 3: why would you think the Chiefs are the better team

1114
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:25,799
Speaker 3: this year?

1115
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 2: Right?

1116
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 3: I Mean, we've all joked about they should have at

1117
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:31,240
Speaker 3: least three losses on their record, most likely this season.

1118
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 2: But you know, we talked.

1119
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 3: About the Mahome magic, whatever it is. He is incredibly lucky,

1120
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 3: like there's no doubt about it. He's the best quarterback

1121
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 3: we all know. But as far as luck goes, it's

1122
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 3: crazy between the reps, all of it. It's just it

1123
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 3: feels so good to be on the side of Betty Mahome.

1124
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:50,360
Speaker 2: Especially in these kind of spots.

1125
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:53,839
Speaker 3: So we joked I learned a life lesson forever last

1126
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 3: year in that playoffs game against the Ravens, and nothing

1127
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 3: changed me. This year, I was gonna bet the bills

1128
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 3: the Bills opened as a dog books it was all right, nice, mean,

1129
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 3: Chad will take the bills here as a dog.

1130
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 2: So this is where we're supposed to bet them.

1131
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 3: Now, it's two and a half on the Chiefs, and

1132
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:11,320
Speaker 3: people know I'm so obsessed with the two and a

1133
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,760
Speaker 3: half numbers, So this will be one of our five,

1134
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 3: just like Pittsburgh. I mean, we can literally after the

1135
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:17,919
Speaker 3: show chat lock our five and if you won't, because

1136
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 3: I already know what a couple are going to be.

1137
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 3: But Pittsburgh three and a half, it's same as the

1138
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs at two and a half. Here, it might not

1139
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 3: win people, but long term, this is a winner. This

1140
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 3: is a spot we will make the rest of the

1141
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 3: show exists. So until we lose three or four in

1142
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 3: a row of Mahomes is an underdog Chad, then I'll

1143
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 3: hop off this trend. I feel like that's gonna be

1144
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 3: in the later stage of his career, when Andy Reid's gone,

1145
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 3: you know, Travis Kelsey's gone all of that stuff. Me

1146
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 3: and you will adjust then right now with Spags and

1147
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 3: Andy Reid as an underdog, with Mahomes, that combination, we

1148
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 3: bet this number here.

1149
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 1: It's so funny you say that in that order, because

1150
00:57:54,960 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: in the outline my last two notes coaching edge to

1151
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:04,120
Speaker 1: Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo, huge coaching edge. I don't

1152
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 1: think there's even a question even.

1153
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 2: Joe Brady's name. I love what the Bills offense has

1154
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 2: done this year.

1155
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, but they're head coach. Come on, at the end

1156
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 1: of the day, do the on field matric metrics matter

1157
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 1: as much as Patrick Mahomes? And that's really break.

1158
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:26,960
Speaker 3: Like I told you, my model thinks this should be

1159
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 3: minus one for the Bills, and it's like, you know,

1160
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 3: not only is this a good number for them, but

1161
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 3: it's like that's because I've adjusted it, where just I've

1162
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 3: just made the Chiefs. I don't want to bet. I

1163
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 3: guess the Chiefs. That's honest with the truth.

1164
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or less or

1165
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: as a dog twenty six eight and one as a

1166
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 1: dog twelve one and one. So this is what I

1167
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 1: wanted to make my exec decision do it.

1168
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 2: I love it, all right, because.

1169
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:03,120
Speaker 1: Honest, I've been such fucking mush this year that I

1170
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: didn't want to run.

1171
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 3: You can't mush Mahomes found final last words by me.

1172
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Matt Mitchell, bring it back on Sunday.

1173
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible executive decision. No,

1174
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 2: this is all music that Mitchell's use.

1175
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, exactly. Going to have so much breaking news

1176
00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 1: as we've been talking about this and literally as you mentioned,

1177
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 1: you know, taking the Steelers. Just seconds ago, the Steelers

1178
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 1: announced that Alex Highsmith will miss the game. I think

1179
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 1: that's a big deal, to be honest, Like, this is

1180
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 1: a much better team when he's on the field as

1181
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: the bookend defensive end.

1182
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 2: To t J. Watt.

1183
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: Obviously, I know they got Preston Smith, so that's not

1184
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 1: the same. Uh, it's a bit of a downgrade. We're

1185
00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: still going to take the Steelers, but more nervous. If

1186
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 1: we're looking for reasons to be more nervous about it,

1187
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 1: that's one of them. Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers

1188
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 1: are now one and a half open to two and

1189
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: a half. Didn't make sense. We flagged it on Sunday

1190
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 1: that the Bengals should not be two and a half

1191
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 1: point dogs moved all the way down to one. Professional

1192
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 1: money moved the Bengals. It's now back up to one five,

1193
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 1: one and a half.

1194
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:25,920
Speaker 2: I love the Chargers, dude.

1195
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 1: It's so weird that you say that, because I know

1196
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 1: that we we have a soft spot for the Bengals

1197
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow. We don't like betting against him. No,

1198
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 1: but like we have been avoiding this Chargers team because

1199
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 1: their stat lines in each game are relatively even and

1200
01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: they don't do anything remarkable. They're they're they're beating bad teams.

1201
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 1: Their losses are the teams that are like above average

1202
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 1: offensive grades across all the geeky advanced metrics that make

1203
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 1: us feel better. But the thing is they also don't

1204
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 1: do the stupid things. Yeah, they tend to grow those

1205
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 1: pits in our stomach, right. They don't get the bad

1206
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 1: penalties that the Rams got this week. They don't get

1207
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:15,760
Speaker 1: the missed field goals that the Niners got this week.

1208
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 1: They're not inconsistent like the Colts. They don't have high

1209
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 1: variance play calls that make us crazy. They don't have turnovers.

1210
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 2: They're the biggest one to me the dump.

1211
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 3: They don't do the dumb turnovers, which has been plaguing

1212
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 3: them for years.

1213
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:38,240
Speaker 1: It's boring, predictable football. Yeah, so this was going to

1214
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 1: be my exec decision. So I love that you like

1215
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 1: the charger share to you give me your logic?

1216
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:46,880
Speaker 2: Yeah for a lot.

1217
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 3: Well you just said the matchup wise two I think

1218
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 3: is really good for this team. I know the Bengals

1219
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 3: just shut down the run kind of last week with

1220
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 3: the Ravens team, but that's not who they are. They're

1221
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 3: not good against the run, and I think that's going

1222
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 3: to be really telling this game that they're gonna use

1223
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 3: the run the set up the pass.

1224
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 2: And that's why Herbert's been so great this year, Like.

1225
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,160
Speaker 3: That middle of the field is so open because these

1226
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 3: linebackers have to step up because they have to respect

1227
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 3: the run. And that's really unlocked a lot of stuff

1228
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 3: he wants to do this year because we know that

1229
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 3: Herbert's deadly accurate is his biggest issue has just been

1230
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 3: the consistency. He's been inconsistent, and Harball has found a

1231
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 3: rhythm with him that he knows when he needs an

1232
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 3: easy one to get going, like when he needs just

1233
01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:26,440
Speaker 3: a little short two yard dump off to his tight

1234
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:27,640
Speaker 3: end just to get him in a little bit of

1235
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 3: a rhythm, and it's worked out. Like even when he's

1236
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,120
Speaker 3: out of sync. I've watched other games where he get

1237
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 3: him back and sink with a couple easy calls like that.

1238
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,680
Speaker 2: So when a coach and a quarterback.

1239
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:38,840
Speaker 3: Are intain him like that, it's it's great. It's like

1240
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 3: they both know what they need to kind of get

1241
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 3: this thing to work. On the flip side of this

1242
01:02:42,840 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 3: Bengals team, you know, we talked Sunday night where it's like, okay,

1243
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 3: this number is two and a half, and my first

1244
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 3: thought was just gonna be this is gonna be the

1245
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 3: biggest public side of the week, Like everyone's going to

1246
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:56,480
Speaker 3: come in on this Bengals team for what you just

1247
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 3: talked about.

1248
01:02:57,040 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 2: It's the fun, sexy.

1249
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:02,640
Speaker 3: Team, the high flying offenses. Team just put up whatever

1250
01:03:02,680 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 3: it was, thirty five, thirty four points against the Ravens

1251
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 3: on Thursday night, Like it's it makes sense why the

1252
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 3: public would like this team so much. But to me,

1253
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 3: look at this matchup, that number made sense at two

1254
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 3: and a half.

1255
01:03:14,800 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 2: It's like two and a half three.

1256
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 3: That's what I would make this Chargers team because there

1257
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 3: is no real home field advantage for them here, but

1258
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 3: I just think they're the better team overall. So the

1259
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 3: movement that's what makes me like it so much. It's like,

1260
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 3: this is real good value on this Chargers team. Even

1261
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:32,560
Speaker 3: if this doesn't win, fuss, because you know, Sat Higgins

1262
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 3: does come back chat, maybe we'll get even better of

1263
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 3: a number. That's why it's like, you don't have to

1264
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 3: rush to bet this number now. I'm taking it out

1265
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 3: just because I could see professional money coming on this

1266
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 3: Chargers team. Because what we just talked about, like matchup wise,

1267
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:47,480
Speaker 3: this is actually a really nice matchup on paper for

1268
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 3: this Chargers team, not just offensively, but defensively as well.

1269
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 2: I mean, Joe Burrow, you know.

1270
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 3: I guess you didn't have that much pressure last week,

1271
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 3: but we've seen him struggle against teams that can't put

1272
01:03:57,040 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 3: pressure on especially like you talked about earlier, that Eagles team.

1273
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:01,640
Speaker 3: That's how they kind of dominate them in that second half.

1274
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 3: Once he started getting pressure on him, there's not much

1275
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 3: they could do, so be patient with this one. Like

1276
01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 3: if t Against comes back, maybe this flips. Maybe even

1277
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 3: that that's what we really would love to happen. If

1278
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 3: we get a plus one and a half on the

1279
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 3: Chargers team because this is gonna be you know, it's

1280
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 3: Sunday Night. This all the teasers, especially people getting seven

1281
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,439
Speaker 3: and a half right now, their teasers with this Bengals team.

1282
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 3: It's all gonna be tied in this Bengals team. So, uh,

1283
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:26,440
Speaker 3: I line, I'm happy to be patient with. But it's

1284
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 3: definitely one that you know, it's either our big balls

1285
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 3: or Foxhole bet on Thursday.

1286
01:04:30,800 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 2: I would not be shocked.

1287
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:36,480
Speaker 1: I would expect T Higgins to be back. All indications are.

1288
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 3: Maybe, but that contract thing is real. Like he's missed

1289
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 3: what now, four or five games this season, that's true.

1290
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 3: If he's not totally good, He's like, why would I

1291
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 3: risk it? Like I got to make sure I'm good

1292
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 3: head into the offseason because that's what I'm gonna get paid.

1293
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 3: So that, to me has been a very interesting underlying

1294
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:54,480
Speaker 3: story here where he's been picking and choosing when the

1295
01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 3: games he's playing because he's.

1296
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 2: Like, if I'm not one hundred percent, I'm not risking it.

1297
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 1: Look, you're so smart, and from a negotiation perspective, it

1298
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: becomes clearer and clearer every single week how important he

1299
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 1: is to this team, Like they're winning when he's playing,

1300
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 1: they're losing when he's not. He makes such a massive

1301
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 1: difference in how defenses can defend against Jamaar Chase and

1302
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, and they're gonna have to go pay for

1303
01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:26,600
Speaker 1: someone else to do that, or they can keep Tea

1304
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 1: against Really that is interesting. Now we're talking, all right, well,

1305
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: we're going to hold a pin in that one. I

1306
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:39,000
Speaker 1: really enjoyed this past Sunday when all of our games

1307
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:42,240
Speaker 1: were decided by one o'clock except for one, and so

1308
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:45,520
Speaker 1: Sunday night was a bit of a reprieve from our contest.

1309
01:05:46,560 --> 01:05:48,560
Speaker 1: But I don't know that that's going to happen. It

1310
01:05:48,600 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 1: feels like we're going to end up on the Chargers.

1311
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:57,200
Speaker 1: I feel like you're not wrong Steelers Chiefs Chargers, Like

1312
01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 1: I think we already lean a little bit a Colts.

1313
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 1: We could see Atlanta come in here. I wouldn't be

1314
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 1: afraid of the Rams. Like this is getting interesting.

1315
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:12,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll say a Lions twelve and a half is

1316
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 2: super tempting.

1317
01:06:14,080 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the Lions twelve and a half. It

1318
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 1: makes no sense not to do that. It just doesn't.

1319
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 1: Houston at Dallas. It's the last game on the board.

1320
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 1: Dallas is seven and a half point underdog at home. Look,

1321
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:29,479
Speaker 1: I want to be respectful of the audience. I wanted

1322
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: to do our best to determine if there is an

1323
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 1: edge in this game. Two entirely different collapses. The Cowboys

1324
01:06:38,400 --> 01:06:44,840
Speaker 1: collapse catastrophic from a fan perspective, franchise perspective, ownership perspective,

1325
01:06:44,880 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 1: player perspective. Dak is out. This team looked like it

1326
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:54,080
Speaker 1: gave up, and the Eagles took the foot off the

1327
01:06:54,120 --> 01:06:57,440
Speaker 1: gas and basically played mercy ball in the fourth quarter,

1328
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:01,200
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys still almost won them to score touchdowns

1329
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:06,360
Speaker 1: and hit the over by themselves. Houston obviously five five

1330
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:11,320
Speaker 1: interceptions of Jared Goff and loses a squeaker of a

1331
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 1: game winning kick to the Lions. I don't want to

1332
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 1: even watch this game.

1333
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 2: Signed that's fair.

1334
01:07:18,800 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna end up beating on Dallas because I just

1335
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: feel that Egals game with them being a little bit

1336
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:24,400
Speaker 3: unlucky they're in that game. That Zeke fumbled out of

1337
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: the end zone, that that was really to me the

1338
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:29,400
Speaker 3: end of the game Like that to me was maybe

1339
01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 3: they could have kept that game a little close if

1340
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:32,560
Speaker 3: he had scored that once that happened.

1341
01:07:32,560 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 2: It was dead.

1342
01:07:33,480 --> 01:07:35,400
Speaker 3: But you're right with Houston, they're supposed to get Nico

1343
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:38,320
Speaker 3: Collins back for this matchup. That's the difference the Houston

1344
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:40,760
Speaker 3: team we've seen these last couple of weeks. That's they're

1345
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 3: not that they're not the same team. They're a totally

1346
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:44,520
Speaker 3: different team. When he's on the field, it opens up

1347
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 3: so much for their offense. So you're right, this this

1348
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 3: summer's price right, No need to force it in. I'll

1349
01:07:51,400 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 3: just take the seven a half because I like taking

1350
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 3: this Cowboys team and a really as low as it

1351
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 3: gets kind of spot like everyone's just bad mouthing them

1352
01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:01,720
Speaker 3: this whole week. The players know it. This is a

1353
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 3: standalone game. Usually this is when guys show up and

1354
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:08,880
Speaker 3: showed some pride. But why, I don't know. It's just like,

1355
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 3: I'm glad we don't really bet this one because it's like,

1356
01:08:10,880 --> 01:08:12,920
Speaker 3: you know, the whole Michael Parsons comments, talking about his

1357
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:15,840
Speaker 3: coach everything like that. It just feels so negative right

1358
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:18,720
Speaker 3: now at Dallas. I understand why people want nothing to

1359
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:20,400
Speaker 3: do with this game, Like Chad doesn't want to watch

1360
01:08:20,439 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 3: it either.

1361
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 1: Do you feel like it is more negative in Chicago

1362
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 1: or more negative in Dallas as a completely impartial observer.

1363
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:32,080
Speaker 3: Oh my god, gotta be gotta be Dallas because Chicago.

1364
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 3: Not that you guys are inherently negative, but like everyone

1365
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:37,880
Speaker 3: saw this coming a mile away.

1366
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 2: You guys over head build it up and then just

1367
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 2: for your gems, a little bit of an idiot, but yeah,

1368
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 2: it's it's tough.

1369
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 3: But like like you just talked about with you guys,

1370
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:53,240
Speaker 3: if you get you know, Ben Johnson wherever in this offseason,

1371
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:55,919
Speaker 3: it's all different. Right, Even if they bring him Belichick

1372
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 3: to this Cowboys team next year, it doesn't fix a

1373
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:01,880
Speaker 3: lot of their issues, have a lot of stuff they need.

1374
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 2: To work on.

1375
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:04,400
Speaker 3: Where it feels like the Bears at least, you know,

1376
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:07,920
Speaker 3: right now, the biggest issue is head coach offensive line.

1377
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:09,519
Speaker 2: So I'm with you though.

1378
01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:12,800
Speaker 3: It's two major, huge fan bases in football and both

1379
01:09:12,840 --> 01:09:15,000
Speaker 3: of them are just taking the rest of the season off.

1380
01:09:15,000 --> 01:09:20,280
Speaker 1: Most likely Jerry Jones is standing there taking freaking bullets

1381
01:09:20,360 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 1: right now, like going like the fact, he's yelling, why

1382
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: don't we just tear down the whole stadium. Everybody knows

1383
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:29,839
Speaker 1: where the sun is going to be at four o'clock,

1384
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:32,680
Speaker 1: as if to say the players should be ready, they

1385
01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:35,880
Speaker 1: shouldn't be calling plays for that end of the end zone.

1386
01:09:36,200 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 1: Like I am loving Jerry Jones postgame. It's getting meltdowns.

1387
01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:44,639
Speaker 3: He's literally the office meme. Shut up about the sun,

1388
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:46,960
Speaker 3: Like he just loses his mind talking about the sun

1389
01:09:47,080 --> 01:09:47,400
Speaker 3: right now.

1390
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 2: It's it's really is ridiculous.

1391
01:09:49,720 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 1: It's so funny. We should just we should just tear

1392
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:56,519
Speaker 1: down the stadium. That's like the most parent thing ever.

1393
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 1: Why don't you just get new parents? If you're mad

1394
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 1: that we're not letting your good club this weekend, fine,

1395
01:10:04,880 --> 01:10:07,640
Speaker 1: maybe you can get new parents. As a reminder, the

1396
01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,559
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01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:11,439
Speaker 1: until next time.

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