1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether at the grocery store 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. We're gonna 7 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: go now to Tolu on Arupia to give us a 8 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: he's our White House to correspondent to just give us 9 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 1: a little update on the hearings which will begin. They're 10 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: both seated FBI Director James Comey and Admiral Mike Rodgers 11 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: of the National Security Agency. To Lou, I'm gonna imagine 12 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: this is going to be a quite a popular sport 13 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: watching this happen in Washington today. Yeah, this is a 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: much awaited hearing. We're finally going to hear the FBI 15 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: directors speak on a topic that so many people have 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 1: been wondering about, speculating about, reporting about for the last 17 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: several weeks, both the issue of Russian meddling in the election, 18 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: or whether there was any evidence of collusion by the 19 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 1: Trump campaign, whether there are any investigations going on into that, 20 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: as well as this sort of incendiary tweet that went 21 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 1: out from the President a couple of weeks ago where 22 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 1: he accused his predecessor, Barack Obama of wire tapping him 23 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 1: at Trump Tower. There has not been any evidence of that, 24 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 1: so we'll see if that happens at the at the hearing, state, LU, 25 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: what are the sources that you speak to expect to 26 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: hear from this? Are we just going to hear about 27 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 1: this sort of seed of play of their investigation. Are 28 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: we going to hear actual conclusions? We're probably not going 29 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: to hear much about the investigation. Commy has been a 30 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: bit circum circumspect about commenting on ongoing investigations, especially a 31 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: public hearing like this, But when it comes to the 32 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: wire tapping charge, our sources have been clear that Comey 33 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: has wanted for for the last couple of weeks to 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: publicly uh denounced this charge and say that, uh, the 35 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: FBI was not involved in any wire tapping of the 36 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: Trump campaign. Uh. He hasn't been able to do it 37 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: up until now. He's been working specifically with congress members. 38 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: But now he's going to have a chance to actually 39 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: say this in the public, say that there's no evidence 40 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: to back up this tweet from the president, and that's 41 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: what we're expecting to hear from him when he's asked, 42 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: probably multiple times by members of Congress whether or not 43 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: this actually happened. So what are the implications of that, 44 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: that conclusion of him publicly denouncing the claim the President 45 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: Trump tweeted, Are there any applications for that? Well, it 46 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: will depend on how the Trump administration deals with that, 47 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: whether they doubled down on it and say maybe that 48 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: it was something that was another type of surveillance, not 49 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: not that the FBI is not privy too, or whether 50 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 1: they admit that this was something that that they had 51 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: their facts wrong about. But it does seem like something 52 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: that Democrats are going to use to attack the president 53 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: and say, uh, he's not he's losing his credit ally 54 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: by making these claims that can be backed up, that 55 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: he's you know, following conspiracy theories instead of listening to intelligence. 56 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: So a lot of it will depend on how the 57 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: White House reacts, whether they you know, continue to uh, 58 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: to stick to their guns and say that they you know, 59 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: they still believe this, or whether they tried to move 60 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: on and put this behind them. Well, I know that 61 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: the House Intelligence Committee Chair, Representative Devin Newness, a Republican 62 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: from California. He is giving opening remarks right now. James 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: Commey is not unfamiliar with cyber attacks in his role 64 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: as the director of the FBI. In June of twenty fifteen, 65 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: as you may recall, the U. S. Office of Personal 66 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: Management announced it had been hacked, and at the time 67 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 1: he was questioned and said that he believed that eighteen 68 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: million people records had been hacked in that particular attack. 69 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: There is clearly a sort of thread that runs through 70 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: all of this having to do with hacking, but also 71 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: of political mischief. Yeah, that's that's definitely true. You can 72 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:10,119 Speaker 1: expect to hear Republicans, uh sort of wonder and sort 73 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: of press tod me about what the Obama administration was 74 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: doing while Russia was allegedly meddling in our election via hacking. 75 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: What the what the previous administration was doing to protect 76 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: the U. S. Government and to protect our political system 77 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: from uh cyber hacking. And you can expect to hear 78 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: Republicans to make a lot of pay out of the 79 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: fact that you know, Russia was even able to do 80 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: the hack, the hacking that they were doing without you know, 81 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: without political repercussions. Um, that's something that you know, you 82 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: can expect to hear during the hearing. But I can 83 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: expect Democrats to uh to really try to focus much 84 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: more on this wire tapping charge and uh and and 85 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 1: and getting the FBI director to separate them stuff from 86 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 1: the president and say, the president tweeted out, you know, 87 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: this charge against the former former president without any evidence 88 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: to Lou. I wonder if if Rudy Giuliani, former mayor 89 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: of the City of New York, will come up, because 90 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: in October last year, Ruddy Giuliani was speaking to Fox 91 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: News and he said that there was going to be 92 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 1: a surprise or two that you're going to hear about 93 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 1: in the next two days. And then we heard the 94 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: disclosure about the email METAD data that contained positive hits 95 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: for Hillary Rodham Clinton, her campaign and her tenure as 96 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: Secretary of State. Yeah, that's a good point, and we're 97 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: definitely going to hear. Democrats tried to press the FBI 98 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: director about who is he, who he's looking at, who 99 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: he's investigating. There are several members of the Trump campaign, 100 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 1: associates of the Trump organization who have some of these 101 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: sort of mysterious ties to Russia, um Rudy Giuliani is 102 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: one of them. Roger Stone also tweeted out something shortly 103 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: before Hillary Clinton's campaign managers emails were were packed, that 104 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: they gave a lot of impression that you may have 105 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: known that this was coming beforehand. So there are a 106 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: lot of questions about what contexts the Trump campaign and 107 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: associates of the Trump campaign had with Russia, and those 108 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: are the types of questions that the director's going to 109 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 1: likely be asked. He may try to dodge those questions 110 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 1: by saying, you know, this is all part of an 111 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: ongoing investigation and I can't answer them in a public hearing, 112 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: but you can definitely expect him to get pressed very 113 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: hard about that about whether or not anyone associated with 114 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: the Trump campaign was connected with Russia, communicating with Russian, 115 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: with the Russian government, or with any of the people 116 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 1: who were behind this hacking, because that's the major question 117 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 1: that we haven't answered just yet. Chulu, do you have 118 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: a sense of what investigations are currently ongoing at the FBI? 119 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: I mean, yes, it's understood that he cannot talk James, 120 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: and we cannot talk specifics about investigations, but with the 121 00:06:53,960 --> 00:07:00,359 Speaker 1: news of any particular investigations be important today, Yeah, that 122 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: would be, That would be incredibly important because to this 123 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: point and we have not been able to verify that 124 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: there are any investigations, and there's a lot of questions about, 125 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: you know, if there are investigations going on, how close 126 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: they are to UH, the Trump campaign and to Trump associates. UM. 127 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: There are a number of different people who have been 128 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: involved in some questionable activity who are also involved in 129 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: the Trump campaign, everyone from UH from Carter Page who 130 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: was a foreign policy advisor to the Trump campaign who 131 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: went over to Moscow, to Roger Stone who had these 132 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: ties to Wiki leaks right before they started releasing documents 133 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: that allegedly were hacked by Russia. UM. And and then 134 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: you also have political operatives connected with the Trump campaign 135 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: who also were political eric campaign advisors to politicians in Ukraine. Yes, exactly. 136 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: Paul Manafort is another person who may potentially be under investigation. 137 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: All of these people have been asked to preserve all 138 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: documents and destroy any documents by the intelligence committees that 139 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: are investigating this because there could be uh some some 140 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: investigations into their ties with Russia. Paul maniforts ties with Ukraine. Um, 141 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: he was outfited from that position in part because of 142 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: those leaks. So there are a lot of different questions 143 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: that need to be answered in the FBI. Director is 144 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: likely going to be asked whether or not any of 145 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: these people are being investigated. Right now. Admiral Mike Rogers, 146 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 1: head of the National Security Agency, is sitting beside Director Comy. 147 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: What is he expected to be to be focused on. Well, 148 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: he's likely to get a lot of the same questions 149 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: as you know, he's uh, since the top a lot 150 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: of the national intelligence uh agencies. He's gonna be asked 151 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: a lot of the same questions about, uh, you know, 152 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: who knew, who knew what when? About Russian hacking, uh, 153 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: some more details about what the US government knows about 154 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 1: what the Russian government was doing to metal in our election, 155 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: as well as uh, you know, some of the details 156 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 1: about the cyber hacking and it took place. UM. And he, 157 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: you know, while he's up there, he's likely to be 158 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: asked about wire tapping as well, that you know, how 159 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 1: how it works and whether or not there's any reason 160 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 1: to believe that former president could even you know, order 161 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: up a wire tap of a political campaign. So those 162 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: those are the types of questions that he's he's likely 163 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: to be asked. Um. You know, you can expect Democrats 164 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: and Republicans both to get to try to score political 165 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: points through this hearing. But to lou Alarnapa, thank you 166 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. To Lou is the White 167 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: House correspondent for Bloomberg News. While we await the beginning 168 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: of FBI Director James Comey's testimony, we turn now to 169 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: some political turmoil overseas. We're talking about Britain, in particular Brexit, 170 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: and we want to bring in Ian Wishart. He's your 171 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: Pian government reporter for Bloomberg, coming to us from Brussels. 172 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: He wrote a story today talking about how Prime Minister 173 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: Treasa May will file divorce papers to leave the European 174 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: Union in March twenty nine. Ian, what is the significance 175 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: of this sort of triggering of of of this particular provision. Well, 176 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: it means that the UK from that date will have 177 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: exactly two years to withdraw from the EU. During those 178 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: two years, it means that the UK and the EU 179 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 1: have to come to some kind of deal on how 180 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 1: the Britain will extricate itself from all the laws built 181 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: up over forty years, having been a member of that time, 182 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: and also trying to work out what sort of relationship 183 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: the UK will have the EU in future, what sort 184 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: of trading links that will have. UM. So, what it 185 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: means is that there is no clarity. March twenty ninth 186 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: is the day that the reason May the Prime Minister, 187 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 1: is going to trigger those negotiations um and it means 188 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: after talking about it for so long, since last June 189 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 1: when the referendum in Britain was held, they can finally 190 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,959 Speaker 1: start getting down to some work. You know, Ian as 191 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: we as we talk about all of what's going on 192 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: in the usagram where the US wouldn't commit to being 193 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: against protectionism, you have to wonder how much the certain 194 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: political backdrop internationally, particularly with the US, it's complicating the 195 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: Brexit negotiations. If it are, how how are they There's 196 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: there's obviously that backdrop. There's there's this sort of rise 197 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: of protectionism all around the world um and the EU 198 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: is very well aware of that, and they're also very 199 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: well aware of sort of a surge in nationalism and populism, 200 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,479 Speaker 1: and they know that Brexit was perhaps an earlier example 201 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: of that. So as part of their negotiations with the 202 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: with the UK on Brexit, they're also making sure that 203 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 1: the other twenty seven countries that formed part of the 204 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: EU stick together, that there's no fragmentation there, that Brexit 205 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: doesn't start to divide them as well, or they look 206 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: towards the UK and see, well, this is quite a 207 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: good thing to do. So you've seen that with sort 208 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: of Theresa made early meeting with Donald Trump. She wants 209 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: to get close to the US as she withdraws from 210 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: the EU. So that's all playing into the negotiations as well, 211 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: and it will it will mean that the EU wants 212 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: to drive a hard bargain because they don't want other 213 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: countries to follow Britain's example in what's the economic condition 214 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: of much of the European Union? Are people underestimating the 215 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: strength of the European Union's economy? I think so because 216 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: they look back over the last I don't know, six 217 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: son eight years and see the Eurozone in particular going 218 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,239 Speaker 1: through a hard time. I mean, growth has been pretty sluggish, 219 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: unemployment is very high in some countries, specially youth unemployment, 220 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: and um, they're thinking, you know, can the EU withstand 221 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: these type of shocks. Well, the growth is picking up, 222 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: unemployment is going down, things are beginning to look better 223 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: in Greece. Um So I think from an economic point 224 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: of view, they'll think they can withstand Brexit. The real 225 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: question is kind of UK withstand Brexit economically, and there 226 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: are sort of although there's been no real shock. Yeah, 227 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: there are definitely some forecasts that growth will be particularly 228 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: hit over the next two or three years when the 229 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 1: penny starts to drop and the UK sees what sort 230 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 1: of condition is left in Yeah, I'm struck by the 231 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: fact that the European Union may want Britain in fact 232 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 1: too not do so well after a Brexit, right, because 233 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: then it sort of encourages the outliers that might be 234 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: leading towards a breakaway as well from the European Union, 235 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: maybe France or maybe Italy. It may make them rethink 236 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 1: whether they actually want to do that. Right. Yeah, that's 237 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 1: absolutely right, And almost every leader in the EU has said, 238 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: you know, the UK will still be our friend. We 239 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: we want to continue trading happily with the UK. But 240 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: under no circumstances can the UK be better off. In fact, 241 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: it must, it must be worse off when it leaves 242 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 1: the EU for the very reason you said, because they 243 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: don't want to show other countries, actually, this is this 244 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 1: is a this is a thing you can you can copy. 245 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: So while they're at pains to say we don't want 246 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: to punish Britain for leaving, they certainly don't want to 247 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: make it easy for them. Um. And we'll see that 248 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: in the course of the negotiations over the next two 249 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: years on things like trading links, on things like access 250 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: to the euse Single Market where there's no tariffs, um. 251 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: That they want to drive a hard bargain and they 252 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: don't want to make the relationship particularly easy after Brexit. 253 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: So far though Britain has actually done better than people expected. Correct, Yes, 254 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: but it's still very early days. Certainly the economic impact 255 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: hasn't been quite so that hasn't been a shock as 256 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: some people thought might happen. Firstly straight after the re 257 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: random results and then when it became clear that the 258 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: British government was going to trigger what what we call 259 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: over here a heart breaxit, which is really severally severing 260 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: as many links as possible with the EU. So at 261 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: the moment wouldaen's been okay, But to be honest, nothing 262 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: really has changed in that time. It's still a member 263 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: of the EU and still will be for the next 264 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: two years. That's the real key time in exactly two 265 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: years time when the time comes for the UK to 266 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: actually leave and make it on its own, and then 267 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: we might start seeing some impact on the economy then, 268 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: but you know, the British government will say, no, actually, 269 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: we've got everything in place and we're well prepared and 270 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: in fact, you know, we can make it on our own. Well. 271 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: Not only are the issues related to legal contradictions between 272 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: the United Kingdom and the European Union, but businesses will 273 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: have to decide where they're going to invest money. And 274 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: I noted that, for example, Toyota has just announced that 275 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: they are investing about two hundred and fifty to two 276 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty million dollars in its UK manufacturing facility. 277 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: Is there a reason that the Toyota would be so 278 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: optimistic about making this investment given the uncertainty you describe. 279 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 1: There's so much unpredictability, But the UK government is offering reassurances. 280 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: And it's very definitely true that some companies, particularly as 281 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: you say, the automobile sector is saying, you know, is 282 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: believing those reassurances and we'll see that Britain can still 283 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: trade with the rest of the world, with the US, 284 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: with China, with much of that. Those reassurances come with 285 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 1: any financial assurance on the part of the government. It's 286 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: not been it's not been made public. One would expect 287 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: that that's probably taken place in sort of some of 288 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: the back rooms, but they've certainly said there is no 289 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: financial incentives. That we'll have to wait and see. We'll 290 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: have to wait and see what the UK government has 291 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: said to the harm manufacturers about what is future relationship 292 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: with the EU will be. But again that all depends 293 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: on the EU agreeing, you know, and you see that 294 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: the euro still that that the European Union still includes 295 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: Britain in it. So we haven't seen the full impact. 296 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: And yet we have seen a real impact from the 297 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 1: depreciation of the pound, and I'm wondering, you know, that 298 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: seems to have come as a direct result of what 299 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 1: happened right of of the Brexit votes, So you know 300 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: from that can we glean anything very much so, and 301 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: you know that was the shock as soon as the 302 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,199 Speaker 1: referendum happened, that the pound weakened quite a lot against 303 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: both the US dollar and the euro. And but what 304 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: is very very important to remember is that people in 305 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: Britain voted for Brexit not for economic reasons primarily. You know, 306 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: it's very easy, you know, when we're working for Bloomberg 307 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: here to say, you know, but look what it does 308 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: to the economy, and look what it does to investors 309 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: and manufacturers. But in fact, most people in the UK 310 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: voted for Brexit for emotional reasons because they wanted greater 311 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: sovereignty shat more say, over the laws that Britain was 312 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 1: making um and non controls on immigration. So people will 313 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: look at the de valuing of the pound and say, well, 314 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 1: actually it doesn't make a lot of difference, but you're right, 315 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: it does show what sort of shock this has on 316 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: the UK economy and and it is perhaps an indication 317 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: of things to come. I want to thank you very much, 318 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: Ian wish Art are expert when it comes to Brexit. 319 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: For Bloomberg News reporting from Brussels. The pound versus the 320 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: dollar right now three nine to the pounds sterling the 321 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: dollar at one oh seven to the euro. Thanks for 322 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. You can subscribe 323 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast 324 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm out there on 325 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,360 Speaker 1: Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at 326 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: Lisa Abramo. It's One before the Podcast. You can always 327 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio